0.35%. 0.38%. PAYMENT. DELINQUENCY. CREDIT CARD. DELINQUENCY. CREDIT CARD. USE. SMALL BUSINESS HEALTH INDEX. U.S. JOBS HEALTH. Dun & Bradstreet's Small Business Health Index plunged 1.1 points during the latest reporting period, erosion is noted both in the Overall and sector-specific indices.
Dun & Bradstreet U.S. Economic Health Tracker A multi-dimensional view of the U.S. Economy DECEMBER 2015
W W W. D N B . C O M / T R A C K E R
Small Business Health Index: Overall
S M A L L B U S I N E S S H E A LT H I N D E X
PAY M E N T DELINQUENCY
120
1.1 points
0.52%
100
CREDIT CARD DELINQUENCY
0.35%
80
CREDIT CARD USE
0.38%
60 Dec '04Dec '06Dec '08Dec '10
Nov '15
Source: Dun & Bradstreet
US U . SJobs . J OHealth: B S H E AOverall LT H 300000
Dun & Bradstreet’s Small Business Health Index plunged 1.1 points during the latest reporting period, erosion is noted both in the Overall and sector-specific indices. However, the index still shows improvement (1.82%) on a year-over-year basis.
M A N U FA C T U R I N G
R E TA I L
R E A L E S TAT E
BUSINESS SERVICES
CONSTRUCTION
TRADE, T R A N S P O R TAT I O N & UTILITIES
214,000
260000
220000
180000
140000 June '15 July '15 Source: Dun & Bradstreet
Aug '15 Sept '15
Oct '15
Nov '15
Dun & Bradstreet estimates 214,000 new non-farm jobs were added to U.S. payrolls in November 2015. We expect to see gains in the Retail sector as the holiday season approaches, while Manufacturing continues to record losses.
DECEMBER 2015 US Business Health Index: Overall
W W W. D N B . C O M / T R A C K E R
U . S . B U S I N E S S H E A LT H I N D E X 55
TOTAL INDEX VALUE 54.8
IMPROVEMENT
HOW TO READ T H I S I N D I C AT O R :
2.8% Y/Y
A reading of 50% represents “neutral.” A reading of more than 50% reflects improvement and a reading of less than 50% reflects deterioration.
NEUTRAL
50
VIABILITY
DELINQUENCY
1.9% 3.7%
DETERIORATION
45 Feb' 12
T O TA L L O S S
Jan '13
Nov '15
2.9%
Source: Dun & Bradstreet
A slight increase in financial risks among all active and open U.S. businesses was recorded in November as the Overall Business Health Index fell 0.2% from the prior month. This was the first month-to-month decline in six months as weakness among the Delinquency and Viability scores contributed to the decline.
PERSPECTIVES Dun & Bradstreet’s December U.S. Economic Health Tracker shows some pullback in small business conditions compared to the prior month, although the sector continues to improve on a year-over-year basis. The Business Services sector, the forerunner of the recovery period is starting to show some decline, while Personal Services shows significant improvement compared to the past year. D&B estimates 214,000 new non-farm jobs were added to U.S. payrolls in November, slightly below pace from the impressive October number. Finally, overall U.S. business health recorded weakness falling for the first time in six months. Despite the month-to-month drop active and open businesses remain near the lowest level of risk compared to the prior five years. In summary, the December Tracker reflects an economy that is stronger than a year ago. Overall, businesses appear to be in moderate health but there may be developing pockets of weakness among specific verticals and geographies.
METHODOLOGY The Small Business Health Index measures year-over-year small business performance through equally weighted payment patterns and credit use. U.S. Jobs Health combines Small Business Health Index industry data with BLS figures to forecast monthly nonfarm payroll employment. The U.S. Business Health Index provides a year-over-year equally weighted average of D&B’s Viability Score, Delinquency Predictor and Total Loss Predictor. The index ranges from zero (with all businesses recording high levels of risk) to 100% (with all businesses recording low levels of risk). Data available as of November 25, 2015.
To learn more, visit www.dnb.com/tracker About Dun & Bradstreet® (D&B) Dun & Bradstreet (NYSE: DNB) grows the most valuable relationships in business. By uncovering truth and meaning from data, we connect customers with the prospects, suppliers, clients and partners that matter most, and have since 1841. Nearly ninety percent of the Fortune 500, and companies of every size around the world, rely on our data, insights and analytics. For more about Dun & Bradstreet, visit DNB.com.
© Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. 2015. All rights reserved. (DB-4592 11/15)
