Outline. â« Introduction. â« Methodology. â« Observations in production and area. â« Results and ... The contribution of agriculture to GDP has decreased.
Outline Impact of Drought and Flood on Indian Food Grain Production
Introduction Methodology Observations in production and area Results and Discussion Conclusions
Ajay Singh 1, V.S. Phadke2 and Anand Patwardhan1 1
Shailesh J.Mehta School of Management, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Powai, Mumbai400076. 2 Department of Geography, University of Mumbai, Vidyanagari, Santacruz (East), Mumbai-400098.
Second India Disaster Management Congress New Delhi (4-6 Nov.’09)
Methodology
Introduction Agriculture provides livelihood to almost three fourth
population of India 62% of Cropped Area is dependant on Monsoon rainfall Contribution of Agriculture Sector to GDP is 17% The contribution of agriculture to GDP has decreased substantially since the independence but impact of sever droughts on GDP has remained 2 to 5 %. In view of climate change, it is important to assess the impact of climate extremes on agriculture.
Observations in food grain Production and Area
Drought and flood years have been identified from all India Monsoon Rainfall data. Drought and flood years are the years when rainfall falls outside mean minus standard deviation and mean plus standard deviation, respectively Percent loss has been calculated as (Pm-P)/Pm x 100% Pm: Maximum in 7 year window P: Value at particular year Moving average, correlation and regression have been calculated to get fluctuation, association and trend in the variables
Observations (cont.) Year Wise Dis tribution of % Share of Production of different Crops
Area and Production of Foo d Grain in India 140
50.00
200
45.00
100 150
80 60
100
40 area 20
Pro duct ion (Mil l T on n)
Area (M ill Hectare)
Production is increasing significantly in secular term while area after mid 80s declining Greater fluctuation in production than area In recent decade there is less fluctuation in production and area both than earlier decades
%share Rice
40.00
%share Wheat 35.00
%share Jowar 30.00
50
production
0
%share Bajra
25.00 0
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
%share Maize
20.00
Year
Percent loss of the area and productionof food grain crop in India
15.00
%share Barley
10.00
%share Pulses
30.00
5.00
Area 25.00
production
0.00 1940
20.00
percent
250
120
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Ye a r 15.00
10.00
5.00
0.00 1950
1960
1970
1980
year
1990
2000
2010
Share of Rice to food grain has remained almost constant while that of wheat has increased phenomenal and consistent decrease in the share of other food grains
1
Observations (cont.)
Observations (cont.)
Pe r ce ntag e Cov e rage of M ajor Cro ps und e r Irrigatio n
Correlation matrix Loss in Area (%) Area Residuals Loss in Production(%) Production Residuals AISMR (cm) Departure in AISMR from Normal(1961-90)
100 90
Rice
Percentage Coverage
80
W heat
70
Jowar
60
B ajra
50
Maize
Loss in Area (%)
Area Loss in Production AISMR Residuals Production Residuals (cm) (%)
1.00 -0.54 0.73
1.00 -0.23
1.00
-0.58
-0.16
-0.82
1.00
-0.68 -0.70
0.21 0.22
-0.71 -0.72
0.74 0.75
Departure in AISMR from Normal (1961-90)
1.00 0.99
1.00
40
•Summer monsoon is highly correlated with loss in production and area under food grain •Production has higher correlation than area
30 20 10 0 1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Year
Results
Impact on Kharif and Rabi Productions
During drought years, total food grain production decreased from that of the previous year up to 24% in 9 out of 11 events. During flood year, only 2 out of 8 events have reported decrease in total food grain production in India. During almost all drought events, kharif food grain production has decreased. All flood events have noticed increment in kharif food grain production over that of the previous year. All flood events have noticed the increment in rabi food grain production from that of the previous year. Almost 37% of drought event has depicted decrease in rabi food grain production.
Sr. No.
Flood Year
1
1970
Sr. No.
Flood Year
1
1956
Drought Year
Wheat 5.4
Bajra 7.3
Trend in Rabi Production (%)
10.54
6.33
2
1975
25.03
15.74
1983
27.65
5.90
4
1988
28.27
12.90
5
1994
0.67
7.83
6
1966
NA
NA
7
1968
-1.96
0.44
8
1972
-6.91
-8.99
-12.88
10.59
10
1979
-18.99
-13.69
11
1982
1974
-11.94
10.57
12
1985
0.86
6.83
13
1986
-5.92
-3.02
14
1987
-7.03
4.07
Results (cont.) Trend in Production of Crops (%)
Rice
Trend in Kharif Production (%)
3
9
Impact on various crops
Drought Year
Barley -16.3
Jowar 1.7
Maize
All Pulses
8.9
18.5
4.6
17.6
-10.3
2
1959
2.7
3.6
-9.8
0.9
-5.0
3
1961
3.1
9.7
11.3
11.7
-18.1
5.6
4
1970
4.4
18.6
50.7
2.5
-16.6
32.1
1.1
5
1975
23.1
19.7
75.5
1.8
-8.7
30.6
30.1
6
1983
27.5
6.3
50.5
-1.8
10.9
20.9
8.7
7
1988
24.0
43.9
26.4
8
1994
Proportion of Extreme Event Years showing Impact on Production of Different Crops
-7.4
17.2
135.8
8.1
-16.6
1.9
9.9
44.1
31.5
-21.4
-7.5
9
1951
3.5
-4.3
-9.6
-0.5
10.5
20.2
0.1
10
1965
-22.2
-15.2
-17.0
-5.5
-21.7
3.4
-20.0
11
1966
-0.5
9.5
19.2
-1.4
21.6
1.5
-16.0
12
1968
5.7
12.8
-26.8
-30.8
-2.5
-9.1
-13.9
13
1972
-8.9
-6.3
-26.1
-7.7
-9.7
25.3
14
1974
-10.1
10.7
-56.5
32.2
14.4
-4.1
0.1
15
1979
-21.3
-10.4
-29.1
-24.2
1.8
-9.7
-29.6
16
1982
-11.5
14.3
-7.4
-6.3
-10.9
-5.1
3.0
-10.5
5.5
-10.6
17
1985
9.4
6.8
-39.5
26.1
-21.3
11.7
18
1986
-5.1
-5.8
23.2
-14.9
-9.9
14.3
-12.4
19
1987
-6.1
4.2
-26.8
-4.6
32.8
-24.6
-6.4
Crop Rice Wheat Bajra Barley Jowar Maize All Pulses
• Rabi food grain production has better adaptive capacity to drought than kharif food grain production. • All except jowar face flood events effectively. • Wheat and jowar perform relatively better during drought events. • Rice is most sensitive crop in respect to flood and drought. • In general Indian food grain production is more vulnerable to drought than flood. • Therefore drought management should be given especial and essential attention to ensure adequate and sustained food grain production.
• Rice is an important staple foodgrain that is the most sensitive to climate extremes, and needs better planning, management to meet future demand. • Enhancement of irrigation facility, forecasting of climate extremes well in time and technological development for suitable variety of crops to minimise the negative impacts of these extremes are required for food security and sustainable development.
