1 The implications of Trump's presidency for small ...

The implications of Trump’s presidency for small states Sverrir Steinsson, researcher and instructor, University of Iceland

Version: 18 July 2018 DRAFT: PLEASE DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE WITHOUT PERMISSION Comments are welcome (email: [email protected])

Abstract. There are three things that are of utmost importance for the security and prosperity of small states: (i) free trade, (ii) alliances, and (iii) rule- and norm-based diplomacy. Since World War II, the United States has played a crucial role in building and managing a liberal international order, ensuring a favorable environment for small states. However, the Trump presidency poses significant threats to this order. Among Trump’s few rock-solid policy views, which can be traced back decades, are a hostility towards free trade, America’s alliances, and the rule-based international order. Trump’s presidency therefore poses a great challenge to small states and is a threat to their security and prosperity.

Intro Donald Trump has shown weak and inconsistent commitment to and unfamiliarity with a wide range of policy ideas. However, he has shown consistent and passionate opposition to free trade, America’s alliances and the ways that the United States has been constrained by its international commitments and obligations.1 These are issues that he has railed against for decades, repeatedly and consistently asserting that other countries, in particular America’s allies, are exploiting and                                                                                                                 1

Wright, Thomas. 2017. “Trump’s 19th Century Foreign Policy.” Politico.com, https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/01/donald-trump-foreign-policy-213546.

 

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“laughing” at the United States. With this in mind, this essay explores the implications that a Trump presidency could have for small states. The literature on small states widely identifies trade, alliances and international organizations as essential to their survival and prosperity.2 Therefore, it is worthwhile to explore whether Trump’s presidency endangers small states.

For the purposes of this essay, small states are defined as those with a population below 15 million. The purpose of such a threshold is to identify the point at which states start to experience the disadvantages of smallness. A limited population size creates disadvantages and needs that states with larger populations simply do not suffer from. There will always be a degree of arbitrariness in defining small states, because states with a population higher than 15 million may experience some of the same disadvantages that states with a smaller population face, and some of the smaller states may not experience all of the same disadvantages as their fellow small states.3 Nonetheless, blessings of geography and shifting power balances do not change the fact all small states have distinct size-related disadvantages and needs, which are apparent in the long run. Whether the threshold is at 15 million or a bit higher or a bit lower, the important thing to keep in mind is that the smaller the state is, the more profound the size-related challenges become.

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Alesina, Alberto and Enrico Spolaore. 2003. The Size of Nations. London and Cambridge: MIT Press. Deudney, Daniel. 2007. Bounding Power: Republican Security Theory from the Polis to the Global Village. Princeton: Princeton University Press. Fazal, Tanisha M. and Ryan D. Griffiths. 2014. “Membership Has Its Privileges: The Changing Benefits of Statehood.” International Studies Review 16: 79-106. Thorhallsson, Baldur and Sverrir Steinsson. 2017. “Small State Foreign Policy.” in The Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Politics. DOI: 10.1093/acrefore/9780190228637.013.484. New York: Oxford University Press. 3 Norway and the Gulf states can, for instance, do things that a lot of large states cannot due to their resource wealth. A strategically important small state, such as Iceland during the Cold War, can wield outsized influence, as it did when it defeated the United Kingdom during the Cod Wars. A small state, such as the Netherlands, could circumvent the protectionism of its neighbors during Europe’s mercantile era due to its access to the Atlantic, and use its waterways as natural barriers to protect itself against foes. On the other hand, relatively large buffer states can feel far more threatened by their superpower neighbors than peripheral small states do.

 

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Small population size creates distinct problems when it comes to the prosperity and security of states. A state with a small population will inevitably have a small domestic market with a heavy reliance on foreign trade. The prosperity of small states is therefore highly conditional on their access to foreign markets. In a world of high trade barriers and trade disruptions, small states struggle mightily. In fact, Alesina and Spolaore (2003) and Bonfatti (2017) tie the rise and decline in the number of states to the state of the world economy.4 During periods of favorable trade conditions, small states proliferate and sustain themselves. During periods of autarky, small states willingly merge with other small states or get violently gobbled up by the great powers.

Small population size also limits the diplomatic power and military power of states. They are less capable of achieving favorable outcomes in their dealings with other states, in addition to being highly vulnerable to coercion and conquest. The diplomatic personnel of small states are fewer in terms of raw numbers and costlier to maintain per capita (due to economies of scale).5 The diplomats and their staff tend to be “generalists” rather than specialists: they will know a little about a lot of subjects, but not be experts on specific topics.6 Furthermore, a small population limits the military prowess of states, as they will be able to field a smaller military with less diverse capabilities. The combined lack of economic, diplomatic and military power means that small states lack aggregate structural power. As a result, the security of small states is largely dependent on stability in the international system, the security assurances of larger states and rule- and normbased diplomacy.                                                                                                                 4

Alesina, Alberto and Enrico Spolaore. 2003. The Size of Nations. London and Cambridge: MIT Press. Bonfatti, Roberto. 2017. “The sustainability of empire in a global perspective: The role of international trade patterns.” Journal of International Economics 108: 137-156. 5 Thorhallsson, Baldur. 2000. The role of small states in the European Union. Aldershot, U.K.: Ashgate. Thorhallsson, Baldur and Sverrir Steinsson. 2017. “Small State Foreign Policy.” in The Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Politics. DOI: 10.1093/acrefore/9780190228637.013.484. New York: Oxford University Press. 6 Panke, Diana. 2013. Unequal Actors in Equalising Institutions. Palgrave Macmillan, 21.

 

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The era since the end of World War II is unique in world history. It has been a period of unprecedented peace, free trade and institutionalization, and small states have been reaping the rewards. Small states have proliferated, survived and prospered under the liberal international order that the United States created and maintained. This order could survive the loss of American leadership and even intentional efforts by the current administration to break it. But there is also the risk that the order is far more vulnerable and that it can be effectively undermined. This would have profound consequences for small states, which reap vastly more benefits from the order than large states do.

Trade Trade is the lifeblood of small states.7 The reason is that small states have small domestic markets. Producers cannot easily sustain themselves by servicing the national domestic market. A small economy is unable to efficiently produce all goods internally, due to a lack of economies of scale and limited sectoral diversity. Furthermore, small states are more dependent on the innovation that diffuses with trade.8 Thus, small states suffer when trade costs are high.

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Easterly, William and Aart Kraay. 2000. “Small states, Small Problems? Income, Growth, and Volatility in Small States.” World Development 28(11): 2013–2027. Eaton, Jonathan and Samuel Kortum. 2002. “Technology, Geography, and Trade.” Econometrica 70(5): 1741–1779. Alesina, Alberto and Enrico Spolaore. 2003. The Size of Nations. London and Cambridge: MIT Press. Alcala, Francisco and Antonio Ciccone. 2004. “Trade and Productivity.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 119: 613–646. 8 Eaton, Jonathan and Samuel Kortum. 2002. “Technology, Geography, and Trade.” Econometrica 70(5): 1772-1773. Keller, Wolfgang. 2004. “International Technology Diffusion.” Journal of Economic Literature 42: 776.

 

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The prospects of small states rise and fall depending on the openness of the world economy.9 The size-related concerns over trade motivated the unification of Italy,10 the creation of Zollverein (the customs union that later developed into the German federation) and creation of a common market in the United States. Favorable conditions for trade have been posited as a driver behind the creation of new small states. Bonfatti (2017) shows that the timing of decolonization, the American Revolution and the Latin American Revolutionary Wars coincided with favorable trading conditions for the seceding states.11 Also, those small states that survived over extended periods of time (i.e. periods of varying degrees of trade restrictions) tended to be those with access to the sea.12 This allowed those small political units to access more markets, thus mitigating the effects of their closest neighbors’ trade barriers. The era since the end of World War II has been one of great prosperity for small states, as international trade has liberalized worldwide. Whereas the average tariffs were 22% for GATT members in 1947, they declined to less than 5% by 1999.13 There are good reasons to believe that we are currently living in an era of unprecedented trade openness.14

It is therefore not strange that there has been an explosion in the number of new states since the end of World War II in lock-step with greater trade openness. While nationalist and anti-colonialist                                                                                                                 9

Alesina, Alberto and Enrico Spolaore. 2003. The Size of Nations. London and Cambridge: MIT Press. Ziblatt, Daniel. 2008. Structuring the State: The Formation of Italy and Germany and the Puzzle of Federalism. Princeton: Princeton University Press., 64-67. 11 Bonfatti, Roberto. 2017. “The sustainability of empire in a global perspective: The role of international trade patterns.” Journal of International Economics 108: 137-156. 12 Deudney, Daniel. 2007. Bounding Power: Republican Security Theory from the Polis to the Global Village. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 121-123; Alesina, Alberto and Enrico Spolaore. 2003. The Size of Nations. London and Cambridge: MIT Press, 177, 181; Findlay, Ronald and Kevin O'Rourke. 2003. “Commodity Market Integration, 1500-2000.” In Globalization in Historical Perspective, edited by Michael D. Bordo, Alan M. Taylor and Jeffrey G. Williamson. University of Chicago Press, 29. 13 Bown, Chad P. and Douglas A. Irwin. 2015. “The GATT's Starting Point: Tariff Levels circa 1947.” NBER Working Papers 21782. 14 Bown, Chad P. and Meredith A. Crowley. 2016. "The Empirical Landscape of Trade Policy." in Handbook of Commercial Policy Volume 1 Part A, edited by Kyle Bagwell and Robert W. Staiger, 3-108. North Holland. 10

 

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movements played their part, the fact that it is possible to thrive as a small state in the modern world economy is likely an important factor in explaining the proliferation of small states15 and the successes that small states have experienced in the modern era.16 A shift towards greater autarky will likely hobble small states mightily.

So, having outlined why trade is important to small states, what are the implications of Trump’s presidency for trade? Trump has since the 1980s espoused mercantilist ideas about trade and spoken favorable about protectionism. Trump’s mercantilist worldview is widely considered among his oldest, firmest and most consistent positions.17 Trump has, for example, obsessively asserted that trade deficits are in and of themselves bad (a notion widely rejected by economists).18 In an interview with Playboy in 1990, Trump spoke of trade with Japan as zero-sum, with the Americans losing massively. 19 Candidate Trump said in 2015 that the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) was “maybe the worst trade deal maybe ever signed, anywhere,”20 that America was “being defrauded by all these countries” and that he intended to “either renegotiate

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Fazal, Tanisha M. and Ryan D. Griffiths. 2014. “Membership Has Its Privileges: The Changing Benefits of Statehood.” International Studies Review 16: 79-106. 16 Easterly, William and Aart Kraay. 2000. “Small states, Small Problems? Income, Growth, and Volatility in Small States.” World Development 28(11): 2013–2027. 17 The New York Times writes, “Trump’s mercantilism is among his oldest and steadiest public positions.” New York Times. 2016. “On Trade, Donald Trump Breaks With 200 Years of Economic Orthodoxy.” Nytimes.com, 11 March. https://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/11/us/politics/-trade-donald-trump-breaks-200-years-economic-orthodoxymercantilism.html. The Washington Post writes that it is the “one issue on which the president has been rock-solid consistent for four decades.” Washington Post. 2018. “Over four decades, Trump’s one solid stance: A hard line on trade.” Washingtonpost.com, 7 March. https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/over-four- decades-trumps-onesolid-stance-a-hard-line-on-trade/2018/03/07/4b1ed250-2172-11e8- badd-7c9f29a55815story.html 18 Foreign Policy. 2017. “Economists Take Aim at Trump Trade Theory — Again.” Foreignpolicy.com, 6 March. https://foreignpolicy.com/2017/03/06/economists-take-aim-at-trump-trade-theory-again-peter-navarro-bilateralmultilateral-trade-deals-china-germany-national-security/ 19 Playboy. 1990. “Playboy Interview: Donald Trump (1990).” playboy.com, republished online on 14 March 2016. http://www.playboy.com/articles/playboy-interview-donald-trump-1990 20 Global News. 2016. “Presidential debate: Trump calls NAFTA ‘the worst trade deal maybe ever signed, anywhere’.” Globalnews.ca, 26 September. https://globalnews.ca/video/2965418/presidential-debate-trump-calls-nafta-the-worsttrade-deal-maybe-ever-signed-anywhere

 

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it or… break it”.21 He has called for tariffs of 45 percent on Chinese exports22 and tariffs up to 35 percent on Mexican exports.23 He has repeatedly described the World Trade Organization (WTO) as a “disaster”24 and threatened to depart unless the organization approve his 35 percent tariffs on Mexico.25 While President, he has reportedly privately expressed a desire to withdraw from the WTO on repeated occasions.26

In office, Trump has sought to start trade wars, describing them as “good, and easy to win”. The administration has made threats against all of its major trade partners, and engaged in an erratic trade policy of repeated tariff announcements.27 The Trump administration withdrew from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which was an own goal in American efforts to build and cement different alliances in East Asia amid the rise of China, but also put the TPP signatories (several of which are small states) in a position where they are increasingly dependent on China and where China shapes the conditions of commerce and diplomacy in the Asia-Pacific. After a reshuffling of staff at the White House, Trump announced tariffs on steel and aluminum. These tariffs,                                                                                                                 21

The Hill. 2015. “Trump threatens to 'break' trade pact with Mexico, Canada.” thehill.com, 26 September. http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/255053-trump-vows-to-renegotiate-or-break-trade-pact-with-mexico-canada 22 .” New York Times. 2016. “On Trade, Donald Trump Breaks With 200 Years of Economic Orthodoxy.” Nytimes.com, 11 March. https://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/11/us/politics/- trade-donald-trump-breaks-200-yearseconomic-orthodoxy-mercantilism.html. 23 The Hill. 2016. “Trump suggests leaving WTO over import tax proposal.” thehill.com, 24 July. http://thehill.com/policy/finance/289005-trump-suggests-leaving-wto-over-import-tax-proposal 24 Financial Times. 2016. “Donald Trump threatens to pull US out of WTO.” ft.com, 24 July. https://www.ft.com/content/d97b97ba-51d8-11e6-9664-e0bdc13c3bef. CNN. 2018b. “White House lauded US record with WTO, which Trump now calls a 'disaster'.” cnn.com, 2 March. http://money.cnn.com/2018/03/02/news/economy/trump-wto-white- house-economic-report/index.html 25 The Hill. 2016. “Trump suggests leaving WTO over import tax proposal.” thehill.com, 24 July. http://thehill.com/policy/finance/289005-trump-suggests-leaving-wto-over-import-tax-proposal 26 Axios. 2018. “Scoop: Trump's private threat to upend global trade.” Axios.com, 29 June. https://www.axios.com/trump-threat-withdraw-wto-world-trade-organization-f6ca180e-47d6-42aa-a3a3f3228e97d715.html 27 Washington Post. 2018 J. “Trump misses NAFTA deadline as trade policy flounders.” Washingtonpost.com, 17 May. https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/even-his-allies-think-that-trumps-trade-plans-areoverloading-the-system/2018/05/17/31c022ee-593c-11e8-b656-a5f8c2a9295d_story.html. New York Times. 2018 J. “The Economy Can Handle Steel and Aluminum Tariffs. The Real Risk Is Erratic Policy.” Nytimes.com, 31 May. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/31/upshot/-us-tariffs-real-economic-risk-is-unpredictability.html

 

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implemented under a purported “national security” rationale primarily harmed America’s allies, such as Canada, Japan and South Korea.28 Trade experts have warned that the use of the national security rationale, which is extremely unusual, can have a profound impact on international trade, as it could open a pandora box of tit-for-tat tariffs under the disguise of “national security”. This could undermine the international trading order by reintroducing arbitrary barriers to trade and ignite trade wars.29 Even though steel and aluminum, as well as washing machines and solar panels (other goods that the administration has placed tariffs on), only account for 4.1% of U.S. imports by one estimate,30 the manner in which these trade barriers were erected could give rise to more drastic ones. After having announced the implementation of steel and aluminum tariffs, Trump threatened to side-step the WTO and unilaterally impose tariffs on $60 billion worth of Chinese goods.31 Steps like these undermine the functioning of the global trading system. The EU and China responded to Trump’s announcements and threats of tariffs with threats of retaliatory tariffs of their own.

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Washington Post. 2018a. “As U.S. allies, Japan and South Korea feel particularly wounded over steel tariffs.” Washingtonpost.com, 8 March. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/as-us-allies-japan-and-southkorea-feel-particularly-wounded-over-steel-tariffs/2018/03/08/ef12b432-2260-11e8-946c9420060cb7bd_story.html. Bown, Chad P. 2018. “What We Do and Don’t Know After Trump’s Tariff Announcement.” Harvard Business Review, 9 March. https://hbr.org/2018/03/what-we-do-and-dont-know- aftertrumps-tariff-announcement 29 Bown, Chad P. 2018. “Trump has announced massive aluminum and steel tariffs. Here are 5 things you need to know.” The Monkey Cage, 1 March. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2018/03/01/trumphas-announced-massive-aluminum-and-steel-tariffs-here-are-5-things-you-need-to-know. Council on Foreign Relations. 2018. “The Risks of U.S. Steel and Aluminum Tariffs.” cfr.org, 8 March. https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/risks-us-steel-and-aluminum-tariffs. CNN. 2018a. “Germany and other allies are really, really angry about Trump's tariffs.” cnn.com, 2 March. http://money.cnn.com/2018/03/01/news/economy/european-union-canada-global-response-steel-tariffs/index.html. Financial Times. 2017. “Donald Trump moves towards imposing tariffs on steel imports.” ft.com, 20 April. https://www.ft.com/content/d8413fe8-25e6-11e7-8691-d5f7e0cd0a16 30 Reuters. 2018. “Trump's trade tariffs: Long on rhetoric, short on impact?” reuters.com, 5 March. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-trump-rhetoric-analysis/trumps-trade-tariffs-long-on-rhetoric-short-onimpact-idUSKBN1GH37N 31 New York Times. 2018. “Trump Just Pushed the World Trade Organization Toward Irrelevance.” Nytimes.com, 23 March. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/23/business/trump-world-trade-organization.html.

 

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Trump’s White House is comprised of individuals who both share and oppose Trump’s views on trade. It is hard to deduce to what extent the pro-trade elements will be able to restrain Trump, but over the course of the presidency, it is clear that the anti-trade factions within the White House have ascended. Peter Navarro, the chief trade skeptic within the administration, had little influence early on in the administration but advanced in 2018. Gary Cohn, Director of the National Economic Council and a staunch free-trader, lost influence in the administration over time.32 After White House Staff Secretary Robert Porter, who had been lead trade policy coordinator in the administration, resigned amid domestic abuse allegations, Trump moved ahead with the aluminum and steel tariffs.33 The imposition of the steel and aluminum tariffs furthermore led to Cohn’s resignation. These shuffles, coupled with actions taken, suggest that the President is increasingly unrestrained and that he is surrounded by like-minded staff on the subject of trade.

What is more worrying is that even if Trump’s imposition of tariffs may harm the American economy (which most economists say they will do), they may be politically advantageous to Trump. During the 2016 Republican primary and general election campaign, Trump appeared to identity free trade as a topic which had no strong defenders and no passionate electorate. It was a topic rife for exploitation, as key groups in swing states felt badly harmed and at risk by globalization. Even if Trump’s tariffs cost American consumers and producers (according to Kox and Russ [2018], the jobs at risk by Trump’s steel tariffs in steel-consuming sectors outnumber

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Navarro was chosen in January 2017 as the Director of the White House National Trade Council, a newly created entity within the executive branch. By June, this sparsely staffed entity had effectively been folded into the Office of Trade and Manufacturing Policy, which by September was folded into the National Economic Council, where Navarro had to answer to NEC Director Gary Cohn. 33 Politico. 2018. “Promotion would give Navarro deeper influence over trade policy.” Politico.com, 25 February. https://www.politico.com/story/2018/02/25/navarro-trump-trade-tariffs-423462

 

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those in steel-producing sectors by 80 to 1),34 political scientists have suggested that protectionism of this type can be politically advantageous.35

Alliances The chief concern for small states has historically been their inability to adequately secure themselves against larger enemies. A small population necessarily inhibits industrial production, military expenditures and military personnel. As a result, small states are vulnerable to coercion and conquest by states with greater military power. Unsurprisingly, weaker actors have been at the losing end of most conflicts.36 Buffer states, those surrounded by great powers, have been particularly prone to state death.37 Bellicist theories of state formation attribute the decline of political units in early modern Europe to the inability of small European states to compete militarily with the emerging nation-states.38

In the modern era, the chief protection against the threat from violence has been the shift towards a more peaceful international system where violations of sovereignty are highly frowned upon.                                                                                                                 34

Kox, Lydia and Kadee Russ. 2018. “Will Steel Tariffs put U.S. Jobs at Risk?” econofact.org, 26 February. http://econofact.org/will-steel-tariffs-put-u-s-jobs-at-risk. 35 Guisinger, Alexandra. 2018. “Why Trump’s steel tariffs may end up helping him politically.” The Monkey Cage, 7 March. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2018/03/07/what-trump-gains-from-steel-tariffs. Positive signs are that Trump may consider cosmetic changes to trade agreements sufficient given that he lacks the policy knowledge to explain precisely what is wrong with current agreements. For example, the agreed-upon revisions to the US-South Korea trade pact under Trump‘s presidency (Trump had harshly criticized the agreement ratified by Obama), were fairly minor (Reuters 2018). Reuters. 2018. “U.S., South Korea to revise trade pact with currency sidedeal, autos concessions.” Reuters.com, 27 March. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade- southkorea/u-s-southkorea-to-revise-trade-pact-with-currency-side-deal-autos-concessions-idUSKBN1H32SI. Also, when a trade war with China was brewing in April 2018, Trump expressed a willingness to restart TPP negotiations (Bloomberg News 2018). Bloomberg News. 2018. “Trump’s U-Turn on TPP May Help Him Win Allies in China Trade Fight.” Bloomberg.com, 13 April. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-13/trump-u-turn-on-tpp-may-helphim-win-allies-in-china-trade-fight 36 Arreguin-Toft, Ivan. 2001. “How the Weak Win Wars: A Theory of Asymmetric Conflict.” International Security 26(1): 93-128. 37 Fazal, Tanisha. 2004. “State Death in the International System.” International Organization 58(2): 311-44. 38 Tilly, Charles (ed.). 1975. The Formation of National States in Western Europe. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.

 

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Central to this international order is America’s commitment to punish revisionist states which seek to annex territory. The United States, which created this order, has maintained prohibitions against imperial warfare in part by stopping aggressive states, such as Saddam Hussein’s Iraq when it sought to annex Kuwait, and in part by merely being so dominant militarily that other states dare not test it. However, the military dominance only matters in so far as other states believe that the United States will use its military power to defend others. The Trump administration’s commitment to defend other states, even allies, against revisionist actors is not credible.

Trump has consistently expressed hostility towards America’s allies and alliances. His statements on the topic are unprecedented from an American president. These raise serious alarms as to the credibility of security guarantees given by the United States to allies. Trump has with consistency for decades held to the view that America’s allies should pay the United States for the security provision. He has also suggested that the alliances serve no purpose for the United States. In 2000, Trump stated of Europeans, “their conflicts are not worth American lives.”39 In his 1990 Playboy interview, Trump spoke of how the Japanese, Europeans, the Saudis, and the Kuwaitis “walk all over us.”40 He added that America is “being ripped off so badly by our so-called allies; i.e., Japan, West Germany, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, etc... We Americans are laughed at around the world for losing a hundred and fifty billion dollars year after year, for defending wealthy nations for nothing, nations that would be wiped off the face of the earth in about fifteen minutes if it weren’t for us. Our “allies” are making billions screwing us.”                                                                                                                 39

Washington Post. 2015. “Trump tells Ukraine conference their nation was invaded because ‘there is no respect for the United States’.” Washingtonpost.com, 11 September. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/postpolitics/wp/2015/09/11/trump-tells-ukraine-conference-their-nation-was-invaded-because-there-is-no-respect-forthe-united-states 40 Playboy. 1990. “Playboy Interview: Donald Trump (1990).” playboy.com, republished online on 14 March 2016. http://www.playboy.com/articles/playboy-interview-donald-trump-1990

 

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Since the start the start of his 2016 presidential candidacy, Trump has at times expressed no desire for American involvement on behalf of its allies. He stated that NATO is “obsolete”. He also said it was time for a “rethink” on NATO, and as candidate, repeatedly raised questions about US commitment to Article 5 of NATO (“an armed attack against one [ally]... shall be considered an attack against them all”).41 At times, he has insisted that US assistance to other NATO allies pends on whether those allies have “fulfilled their obligations to us.”42 He has also insisted that NATO allies pay their “fair share” if they should expect NATO security guarantees to stay intact.43 In other words, the United States would not undoubtedly come to its allies’ rescue. The rescue is instead contingent on a vague and unclear evaluation of those allies’ payments to and support of the United States. At the 2018 G7 Summit, Trump reportedly told other G7 heads of state, “NATO is as bad as NAFTA. It's much too costly for the U.S.”44 In July 2018, Trump told Fox News’ Tucker Carlson that he had questions about American commitments to defend NATO allies.45 While it is true that past administrations have called for greater burden-sharing, there has never been a sense that they would not respect NATO security commitments.

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FactCheck.Org. 2016. “What’s Trump’s Position on NATO?” factcheck.org, 11 May. https://www.factcheck.org/2016/05/whats-trumps-position-on-nato/ 42 New York Times. 2016b. “Donald Trump Sets Conditions for Defending NATO Allies Against Attack.” Nytimes.com, 20 July. https://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/21/us/politics/donald-trump-issues.html 43 New York Times. 2017b. “Trump Says NATO Allies Don’t Pay Their Share. Is That True?” Nytimes.com, 26 May. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/26/world/europe/nato-trump-spending.html 44 Axios. 2018. ”Scoop: Trump's private NATO trashing rattles allies.” axios.com, 28 June, https://www.axios.com/donald-trump-foreign-policy-europe-nato-allies-worried-bd1e143a-e73a-415b-b688d18ab2d902e7.html. At the same meeting, Trump suggested that Crimea ought to be recognized as Russian territory because Crimeans were Russian-speakers. 45 CNN. 2018. “Trump seems to question US commitment to defending all NATO allies.” Cnn.com, 18 july. https://edition.cnn.com/2018/07/17/politics/trump-nato-fox/index.html

 

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President Trump has at other times read prepared statements which express American security guarantees. However, his skepticism towards America’s alliances and the burdens that come with such alliances appear to be one of the few core principles that he has consistently held for decades. As such, it is hard to take seriously the security guarantees which are spoken of intermittently in prepared statements. European policy-makers have at the very least been rattled by Trump’s rhetoric and lack of firm commitment. Merkel warned that Europe could not depend on Trump, and that Europeans “really must take our fate into our own hands.”46

Trump’s views on this are also apparent in his rhetoric about other allies. He has suggested that the likes of Japan, South Korea, and Saudi Arabia should pay the United States for security, or else fend for themselves. He has gone so far as to suggest that they should develop nuclear weapons to that end, which breaks with past administrations’ stringent nonproliferation policy.47 Candidate Trump attacked the European Union in July 2016, saying that it was created to “beat the United States when it comes to making money... the reason that it got together was like a consortium so that it could compete with the United States.”48 While previous administrations have gotten into trade disputes with the European Union, they have generally treasured a strong and stable EU, and sought to maintain good ties. The United States even played a crucial role in early European

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Washington Post. 2017. “Following Trump’s trip, Merkel says Europe can’t rely on ‘others.’ She means the U.S.” washingtonpost.com, 28 May. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/following-trumps-trip-merkel-says-europecant-rely-on-us-anymore/2017/05/28/4c6b92cc-43c1-11e7-8de1-cec59a9bf4b1_story.html 47 CNN. 2016. “Full Rush Transcript: Donald Trump, CNN Milwaukee Republican Presidential Town Hall.” cnn.com, 29 March. http://cnnpressroom.blogs.cnn.com/2016/03/29/full-rush-transcript-donald-trump-cnn-milwaukeerepublican-presidential-town-hall/. New York Times. 2016. “Transcript: Donald Trump Expounds on His Foreign Policy Views.” Nytimes.com, 26 March. https://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/27/us/politics/donald-trumptranscript.html 48 The Guardian. 2016. “Donald Trump: EU was formed 'to beat the US at making money'.” theguardian.com, 24 July. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/jul/24/donald-trump-eu-was-formed-to-beat-the-us-at-making-money

 

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integration.49 US policymakers saw a strong, united Europe as a strong shield against the Soviet Union. Trump does not however see a strong bloc of like-minded allies as an advantage. His obsession with the zero-sum nature of interstate relations and trade led him to see a strong EU as a threat to the US. Trump has furthermore spoken favorably of the UK departing from the European Union, saying that the results of the 2016 Brexit referendum were a “great thing,”50 and that the EU had been “very bureaucratic and very difficult” and been a “disaster.”51 He later reportedly encouraged French President Emanuel Macron to withdraw France from the EU.52 In July 2018, President Trump outright described the EU as a “foe.”53

There have been no major crises that have tested America’s commitment to its allies. But the response to the Skripal poisonings is illustrative. In March 2018, Trump did act like a normal president would when he showed solidarity with the United Kingdom after the Skripal poisonings. He expelled Russian diplomats and closed the Seattle consulate as punishment.54 However, it was later revealed that Trump had been misled by his own staff to take the action and that he was furious about it.55                                                                                                                 49

Lundestad, Geir. 1997. “Empire” by Integration: The United States and European Integration, 1945-1997. New York: Oxford University Press. 50 BBC News. 2016. “Brexit: World reaction as UK votes to leave EU.” Bbc.com, 24 June. https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36614643 51 CNBC. 2016. “Trump weighs in on Brexit, says EU has been 'disaster'.” cnbc.com, 16 May. https://www.cnbc.com/2016/05/16/trump-weighs-in-on-brexit-says-eu-has-been-disaster.html 52 Rogin, Josh. 2018. “Trump is trying to destabilize the European Union.” Washingtonpost.com, 28 June. https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/trump-is-trying-to-destabilize-the-europeanunion/2018/06/28/729cb066-7b10-11e8-aeee-4d04c8ac6158_story.html 53 CBS News. 2018. “"I think the European Union is a foe," Trump says ahead of Putin meeting in Helsinki.” Cbsnews.com, 15 July. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/donald-trump-interview-cbs-news-european-union-is-a-foeahead-of-putin-meeting-in-helsinki-jeff-glor/ 54 Washington Post. 2018 T. “How Trump got to ‘yes’ on the biggest purge of Russian spies in U.S. history.” Washingtonpost.com, 29 March. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/how-trump-got-toyes-onthe-biggest-purge-of-russian-spies-in-us-history/2018/03/29/3e056a28-337b-11e8-8abc-22a366b72f2d_story.html 55 Washington Post. 2018 S. “Trump, a reluctant hawk, has battled his top aides on Russia and lost.” Washingtonpost.com, 15 April. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/trump-a-reluctant-hawkhas-battled-his-top-aides-on-russia-and-lost/2018/04/15/a91e850a-3f1b-11e8-974f-aacd97698cef_story.html

 

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Rule- and norm-based diplomacy Small states have distinct diplomatic weaknesses. They cannot afford to keep large and highly skilled diplomatic forces.56 The transaction costs of diplomacy are in and of themselves a significant factor for small states, as they are simply unable to participate in many treaty negotiations and keep diplomats in every corner of the world. Small states furthermore lack economic and military weight, which means that they have to rely on persuasion and soft power, as well as norms and rules, to sway other states in the international system. That the international system has become increasingly institutionalized and rule-based since the end of World War II has been important for small states.

The rules and norms that govern interactions within international organizations have mitigated some of the power asymmetry between large and small states and given small states the means by which to influence international outcomes. International organizations have at the very least significantly reduced the transaction costs of diplomacy for small states by bringing all states and relevant stakeholders to the same forums. That said, power politics is perennial. Power asymmetry remains between large and small states, and large states frequently skirt and violate rules and norms. Nonetheless, there is considerable room for small state influence, because norms and rules do matter.

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Corbett, Jack, and John Connell. 2015. “All the world is a stage: global governance, human resources, and the “problem” of smallness.” Pacific Review 28(3): 435–459. Thorhallsson, Baldur. 2000. The role of small states in the European Union. Aldershot, U.K.: Ashgate.

 

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There are reasons to fear that the norms and rules that govern or shape behavior in international organizations are at risk. Previous sections have outlined his hostility towards trade and alliances, but Trump also objects wholesale to the liberal world order. In fact, he sees it as harmful to America’s interests. In a meeting of about 20 people, including five cabinet secretaries, Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis explained the history and purpose of the liberal world order that the United States established after World War II to the President. Mattis said, “The greatest gift the greatest generation left us was the rules-based postwar international order.” Mattis and other cabinet secretaries continued to explain the elements of this post-war order. Trump’s first words after an hour of this was “this is exactly what I don’t want.”57

Trump clearly does not treasure the American-led liberal order. But can he undermine it on his own? Importantly, American presidents have a lot of leeway when it comes to America’s involvement in international agreements and organizations. There are not a lot of formal domestic constraints on the President should he seek to terminate or withdraw from America’s international commitments and obligations.58 If the Trump administration refuses to abide by rulings within the WTO dispute settlement system, it could undermine the rules-based order that all states depend on, with the greatest implications for the smallest states. As Payosova et al. (2018) write, Trump’s unilateralism to trade “runs the risk of returning the world trading system to a power-based freefor-all, allowing big players to act unilaterally and use retaliation to get their way. In such an environment, less powerful players would lose interest in negotiating new rules on trade.”59                                                                                                                 57

New York Times. 2018. “Can Jim Mattis Hold the Line in Trump’s ‘War Cabinet’?” nytimes.com, 26 March. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/26/magazine/can-jim-mattis-hold-the-line-in-trumps-war-cabinet.html 58 Bradley, Curtis P. and Jack L. Goldsmith. 2018. “Presidential Control over International Law.” Harvard Law Review 131(5): 1203-1297. 59 Payosova, Tetyana, Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Jeffrey J. Schott. 2018. “The Dispute Settlement Crisis in the World Trade Organization: Causes and Cures.” Policy Brief 18-5. https://piie.com/publications/policy-briefs/disputesettlement-crisis-world-trade- organization-causes-and-cures

 

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It is furthermore important to small states, especially allies, that they can engage with the United States on the merits of their claims, their value to the US as system maintainers, and their strategic importance to the United States. One of the ways that the small member states in NATO, and nonmembers of NATO such as Sweden and Finland, have sought to strengthen relations with the United States since the end of World War II is by helping the United States to “maintain” the international system.60 The Nordic states have to that end put great effort into funding multilateral organizations, providing peacekeepers and funding humanitarian initiatives. These are all things that past American administrations have respected and which have earned small states goodwill, but which appear to be insignificant in the eyes of the current administration. According to Hal Brands and Colin Kahl (2017), a central feature of Trump’s grand strategy is an “amoral transactionalism” whereby the United States works with individual states for common goals regardless of whether they share similar values.61 Trump therefore sees value in the potential brute strength of Russia and China in dealing with common problems, and no value in offering security guarantees to America’s historical allies without any direct and explicit payment in return. Trump does not begrudgingly work with authoritarian states, he instead repeatedly praises them.

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De Carvalho, Benjamin and Iver B. Neumann. 2015. Small State Status Seeking: Norway's Quest for International Standing. New York: Routledge. Pedersen, Rasmus Brun. 2018. “Bandwagon for Status: Changing Patterns in the Nordic States Status-seeking Strategies?” International Peacekeeping 25(2): 217-241. Jacobsen, Peter Viggo, Jens Ringsmose and Hakon Lunde Saxi. Forthcoming. “Prestige-seeking small states: Danish and Norwegian military contributions to US-led operations.” European Journal of International Security. DOI: 10.1017/eis.2017.20. Wohlforth, William. C., Benjamin de Carvalho, Halvard Leira and Iver B. Neumann. Forthcoming. “Moral authority and status in International Relations: Good states and the social dimension of status seeking.” Review of International Studies. DOI: 10.1017/S0260210517000560 61 Brands, Hal and Colin Kahl. 2017. “Trump’s Grand Strategic Train Wreck.” Foreignpolicy.com, 31 January. http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/01/31/trumps-grand-strategic-train-wreck/

 

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One of the problems with Donald Trump’s foreign policy approach is that it is hard to find any underlying principles or strategic rationales beyond Trump’s zero-sum understanding of free trade and alliances. A realist foreign policy by the United States could allow small states to adopt foreign policies that could predictably please the United States. Small states could make themselves useful to the United States, and thus achieve some assurances and certainty. Trump’s foreign policy approach does not appear to be rooted in realism, even if the ‘America First’ slogan and some of Trump’s superficial rhetoric suggests it.62

According to Steven Walt (2018), “The world is now dealing with a U.S. president who appears to have no firm convictions or beliefs, the attention span of a hummingbird, and who apparently makes important national security decisions on the basis of whatever fairytale he just saw on Fox & Friends.”63 Asked if Trump was a realist, John Mearsheimer (2017) answered that “Trump is a loose cannon who knows remarkably little about international politics.”64 It is apparent that Trump                                                                                                                 62

Walt, Stephen M. 2016. “No, @realDonaldTrump Is Not a Realist.” Foreignpolicy.com, 1 April. http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/04/01/no-realdonaldtrump-is-not-a-realist/. Jervis, Robert. 2017. “President Trump and IR Theory.” ISSF Policy Series: President Trump and IR Theory. https://networks.hnet.org/node/28443/discussions/159072/issf-policy-series-president-trump-and-ir-theory. Pillar, Paul R. 2017. “Trump Is No Realist.” Nationalinterest.org, 27 May. http://nationalinterest.org/blog/paul-pillar/trump-no-realist20887?page=show. Ashford, Emma. 2016. “Should Realists Denounce Trump’s Foreign Policy?” cato.org, 17 August. https://www.cato.org/blog/should-realists-denounce-trumps-foreign-policy. Randall Schweller (2017) argues that Trump is a realist, but in doing so, Schweller takes some of Trump’s expressed policies (e.g. statements indicating a belief in non-interventionism) at face value and dismisses numerous statements that Trump has made that contradict those other statements (e.g. statements indicating a rejection of non-interventionism). Schweller, Randall L. 2017. “A Third-Image Explanation for Why Trump Now: A Response to Robert Jervis’s “President Trump and IR Theory”.” ISSF Policy Series: President Trump and IR Theory. https://issforum.org/roundtables/policy/1-5m-third-image 63 Walt (2018) added, “As near as one can tell, he never saw a treaty or agreement signed by his predecessor that he liked, even though he has trouble explaining what’s wrong with any of them. He just likes to talk about “tearing them up” no matter what the consequences may be.” Walt, Stephen M. 2018. “America Can’t Be Trusted Anymore.” Foreignpolicy.com, 10 April. http://foreignpolicy.com/2018/04/10/america-cant-be-trusted-anymore/ 64 Mearsheimer, John. 2017. Comment on reddit.com, 13 September. https://www.reddit.com/r/Debate/comments/6zuntb/i_am_john_mearsheimer_ama/dmy5ymb/?context=3. Similar assessments were made by major national news outlets. The Washington Post (2018 M) wrote, “ambiguity has always had a place in diplomacy, of course. But Trump adds to that a freestyle approach to international relations. He has a disregard for norms and protocol, an impulsive nature and a tendency toward making contradictory statements.” The New York Times (2018) wrote, “foreign states do not have the luxury of shrugging off the American president’s thinking as an inscrutable mystery. They must stitch together a narrative with which to predict future behavior. The

 

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is both disinterested in policy and lacks the ability to navigate policy. Dan Drezner has compiled a "Toddler-in-Chief" Twitter thread of instances where Trump's own staff describes him to mainstream media outlets as infantile (inattentive, disinterested, impulsive and prone to tantrums). Staff frequently describe how they need to trick him into taking certain actions, and how he needs to be managed so as to not act on destructive impulses. Over the course of a one-year period, the tweets numbered 320.65

The fact that many State Department positions, including ambassadorships, remain unfilled means that many states, in particular small ones, do not have a traditional liaison to the United States and thus have to rely on other means to influence US policy. In its first year, the Trump administration nominated 31% fewer ambassadors than the Obama administration.66 This makes it even harder for small states to gauge what is going on in the United States or interact with the executive in a normal way. According to interviews conducted by the Washington Post, several foreign ambassadors have expressed frustration about the crippling of the State Department, as it left them without the most basic information on what the precise US policy was on a wide range of foreign policy issues. 67 One ambassador said, “Nobody can tell us on Russia what the American policy is, on Syria what the American policy is, on China what the American policy is. I’m not sure there is

                                                                                                                clearest narrative may be that the Americans cannot necessarily be trusted to uphold their commitments…” The New York Times. 2018. “How Trump’s Mixed Signals Complicate America’s Role in the World.” Nytimes.com, 27 April. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/27/world/asia/korea-iran-trump-interpreter.html 65 Drezner, Daniel W. 2018. “The #ToddlerinChief thread is one year old today!” washingtonpost.com, 25 April. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/posteverything/wp/2018/04/25/the-toddlerinchief-thread-is-one-year-oldtoday 66 CBS News. 2018. “State Dept. grapples with vacancies amid high-profile retirement.” cbsnews.com, 2 February. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/state-dept-grapples-with-vacancies-amid-high-profile-retirement/ 67 Washington Post. 2018. “Trump promised an ‘unpredictable’ foreign policy. To allies, it looks incoherent.” Washingtonpost.com, 11 April. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-promised-an-unpredictable-foreignpolicy- to-allies-it-looks-incoherent/2017/04/11/21acde5e-1a3d-11e7-9887-1a5314b56a08_story.html

 

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a policy. They will listen to me and tell me, ‘We will get back to you when there is a policy.’”68 Another expressed worry about what this meant if a serious crisis were to break out, “I don’t know what will happen. You had a president who took three months to take a decision, and now you have one who takes three seconds. It’s very worrying.”69

Small states would furthermore be put at a significant disadvantage if the way to influence US foreign policy is by enriching Trump and his family. Trump has violated the ethical norms that all presidential candidates have adhered to since the Nixon presidency. He has not released his tax returns, which makes it unclear if he has conflicts of interest and is acting on behalf of states and other actors whom he has profited on personally in the past and in the present. Furthermore, Trump and his close family members (some of whom serve in the administration and have access to classified intelligence) have not divested their businesses, which creates a major conflict of interest. There are numerous examples of clear conflicts of interest in the business dealings of the Trump family.70 There is no evidence of quid pro quo corruption but the numerous conflicts of interest demonstrate a blatant and troubling disregard for the commonsensical norms that public officials typically follow.

If the President is bribable or persuadable through lobbyism, small states will not be able to persuade the President on merits, principles or common norms. This puts small states at a disadvantage due to their limited resources. Democratic small states will at the very least be                                                                                                                 68

Ibid. Ibid. 70 Washington Post. 2018. “Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump made at least $82 million in outside income last year while serving in the White House, filings show.” Washingtonpost.com, 11 June. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/jared-kushner-and-ivanka-trump-made-at-least-82-million-in-outsideincome-last-year-while-serving-in-the-white-house-filings-show/2018/06/11/a41d0720-6dab-11e8-bd50b80389a4e569_story.html 69

 

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restricted by domestic laws, as well as ethical norms, from engaging in such diplomacy. Large states and extremely wealthy non-democratic states, on the other hand, find it easier to engage in that kind of diplomacy.

Dealing with Trump There are certain steps that small states can take individually to get into Trump’s good graces. The strategies are: (1) Be seen and be heard, (2) Flattery, (3) Kickbacks. These are strategies that multiple states appear to have adopted in their efforts to influence this White House. Whether these strategies are effective is not certain. However, judging by Trump’s behavior in the White House up until this point, the strategies seem on their face to be a good way to influence a President with such mercurial decision-making, lack of firm convictions, willingness to bypass the bureaucracy, and clear-cut private-public conflicts of interests.

Be seen and be heard Given Trump’s disinterest in and inattention to policy, one way to shape Trump’s views is simply to be seen and be heard by him. He does not like to read, preferring instead short and colorful presentations and illustrations rather than elaborate documents or complicated discussions. He enjoys the American cable news format of debates where guests and hosts shout things out in a chaotic fashion, and he has reportedly set up his staff, formal advisors and informal advisors (the same people whom he enjoys watching on TV) debate policy in front of him in the same fashion.

 

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It is well-documented that Trump’s tweets, speeches and some of his actions in office are influenced by what he sees on Fox News.71 Trump is an avid viewer of shows hosted by Sean Hannity, Tucker Carlson and Jeanine Pirro. He often appears to live-tweet broadcasts of Fox & Friends in the mornings,72 leading some to describe the show as “the most powerful TV show in America.”73 Trump frequently hires people whom he sees on Fox in senior positions, while relying on other Fox News figures as informal advisors.74 That Trump often acts on what he hears on the channel has led some to directly address the President while on the network. More than a dozen hosts and guests have broken the fourth wall in their appearances on Fox, directly pleading with the President to take a specific action.75 These guests include Senators trying to influence foreign policy, as well as wives of convicts seeking pardons for their felonious husbands.76 Trump’s preference for politics through the prism of Fox has even led White House advisors to plant their

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CNN. 2018. “Watch President Trump repeat Fox News talking points.” Cnn.com, 22 April. http://money.cnn.com/2018/04/22/media/president-trump-fox-news/index.html. Gertz, Matthew. 2018. “I’ve Studied the Trump-Fox Feedback Loop for Months. It’s Crazier Than You Think.” Politico.com, https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/01/05/trump-media-feedback-loop-216248. 72 Associated Press. 2018. “‘Fox & Friends’: Influence comes with the president’s ear.” Apnews.com, 13 April. https://apnews.com/44045e8da6ad42f6a342a1f13b7b8f78 73 Poniewozik, James. 2017. “Watching ‘Fox & Friends,’ Trump Sees a Two-Way Mirror.” Nytimes.com, 19 July. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/19/arts/television/donald-trump-fox-friends.html 74 Associated Press. 2018. “Trump is staffing - or casting - from Fox.” Apnews.com, 25 March. https://apnews.com/df7f515f065e41aa87d21236bb780ce1. Daily Beast. 2018. “Donald Trump ‘Cherishes’ Lou Dobbs So Much He Puts Him on Speakerphone for Oval Office Meetings.” Dailybeast.com, 2 April. https://www.thedailybeast.com/donald-trump-cherishes-lou-dobbs-so-much-he-puts-him-on-speakerphone-for-ovaloffice-meetings. Los Angeles Times. 2018. “Trump unleashes himself from would-be handlers, lashing out mornings, nights and weekends.” Latimes.com, 10 October. http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-trump-kelly-20171010story.html. New York Magazine. 2018. “Donald Trump and Sean Hannity Like to Talk Before Bedtime.” Nymag.com, 13 May. http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2018/05/sean-hannity-donald-trump-late-night-calls.html. 75 Associated Press. 2018. “‘Fox & Friends’: Influence comes with the president’s ear.” Apnews.com, 13 April. https://apnews.com/44045e8da6ad42f6a342a1f13b7b8f78. Bump, Philip. 2018. “People keep going on Fox to tell Trump to do things — but does he listen?” washingtonpost.com, 12 April. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/politics/wp/2018/04/12/people-keep-going-on-fox-to-tell-trump-to-dothings-but-does-he-listen. 76 Bump, Philip. 2018. “People keep going on Fox to tell Trump to do things — but does he listen?” washingtonpost.com, 12 April. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/politics/wp/2018/04/12/people-keep-goingon-fox-to-tell-trump-to-do-things-but-does-he-listen. Vanity Fair. 2018. “On Fox News, Pleading for Mercy in the King's Court.” Vanityfair.com, 5 June. https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2018/06/fox-news-pleading-for-mercy-indonald- trumps-court

 

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preferred policies on Fox shows.77 Owing to the network’s disproportionate and unusual influence on this president, observers have even warned that Fox News is likely a target of foreign intelligence services.78

Given his unfamiliarity with policy and loose commitments, it has frequently been remarked that it pays to be the last person in a room with Trump, as Trump will be more likely to remember those interactions.79 In rounds of diplomacy over a dispute between the Gulf states (UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Egypt embargoed Qatar), the Emiratis “pushed to be the last of the Gulf nations to visit with Mr. Trump in the current round of diplomacy.”80 In May 2018, it was reported that Qatar was seeking to buy large shares of the Trump-friendly media outlet Newsmax in an apparent effort to shape the conservative media environment.81

A number of individuals in Trump’s orbit have used their familiarity with him to engage in lucrative lobbying.82 The New York Times attributed Trump’s call with Taiwan’s president, which was a major break in US-China-Taiwan diplomatic practice, during the transition, to Taiwan’s                                                                                                                 77

Associated Press. 2018. “To hell with it: Trump increasingly weary of staff advice.” Apnews.com, 9 April. https://www.apnews.com/eab8cdc9f72f43f3890f41da92ec2cf9 78 Peritz, Aki. 2018. “Foreign spies are watching — and probably targeting — Fox News Channel.” Washingtonpost.com, 10 January. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/posteverything/wp/2018/01/10/foreignspies-watching-and-probably-targeting-fox-news-channel 79 For example, Washington Post. 2018b. “‘Like a pinball machine’: Lawmakers struggle to negotiate with an erratic Trump.” Washingtonpost.com, 4 March. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/like-a-pinball-machinelawmakers-struggle-to-negotiate-with-an-erratic-trump/2018/03/04/a520197a-1e4e-11e8-ae5a16e60e4605f3_story.html. Washington Post. 2018c. “‘Negotiating with Jell-O’: How Trump’s shifting positions fueled the rush to a shutdown.” Washingtonpost.com, 20 January. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/negotiating-with-jell-o-how-trumps-shifting- positions-fueled-the-rush-toa-shutdown/2018/01/20/81215b90-fd71-11e7-a46b- a3614530bd87_story.html 80 Wall Street Journal. 2018. “The Real Danger in Qatar-Gulf Feud is Iran, U.S. Officials Say.” Wsj.com, 10 April. https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-worries-qatar-rift-is-pushing-emirate- toward-iran-1523391182 81 Politico. 2018. “Qatar eyes stake in Newsmax.” Politico.com, 8 May. https://www.politico.com/story/2018/05/08/qatar-newsmax-ruddy-al-jazeera-trump-573242 82 Politico. 2017. “Former Trump staffers hunt for foreign lobbying work.” Politico.com, 3 April. https://www.politico.com/story/2017/04/trump-foreign-lobbyists-lewandowski-236800

 

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lobbying efforts.83 Likewise, the PM of Vietnam got a phone call with Trump during the transition after one of Trump’s personal lawyers, who was lobbying on behalf of an American casino mogul with multimillion dollar gambling interests, set up the phone call.84 Trump’s imposition of tariffs on steel and aluminum, coupled with vague statements that countries could get exemptions, set off a “stampede” by other countries to pursue the services of lobbying firms for exemptions, and ward off further tariffs on additional sectors.85

A major Romanian politician got into one of Trump’s private parties during inauguration week after hiring Elliott Broidy, a top Trump fundraiser. At the party, the Romanian politician advocated for stronger ties between Romania and the United States, to which Trump reportedly replied “We will make it happen! Romania is important for us!”86 The Romanian politician was set to face corruption charges a few weeks later, and sources in Romania claim that his efforts to ingratiate himself with American politicians was to affect the criminal investigation into him.87

However, hiring lobbyists from Trump’s orbit will not always produce favorable outcomes. For example, Puerto Rico hired Corey Lewandowski to get the Trump administration to assist Puerto Rico during its fiscal crisis despite Lewandowski’s advocacy.88 Those efforts were in vain. On the other hand, Australia was only one of three countries to receive an apparent exemption from the                                                                                                                 83

New York Times. 2016. “Bob Dole Worked Behind the Scenes on Trump-Taiwan Call.” Nytimes.com, 6 December. https://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/06/us/politics/bob-dole- taiwan-lobby-trump.html 84 ProPublica. 2018 Q. "The Hidden Hand of a Casino Company in Trump’s Contact with Vietnam — “Trump, Inc.” Podcast.” Propublica.org, 25 April. https://www.propublica.org/article/trump-inc-podcast-vietnam-casino 85 New York Times. 2018. “Trump’s Tariffs Set Off Storm of Lobbying.” Nytimes.com, 16 March. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/16/us/politics/trump-tariffs-lobbying.html. 86 McClatchy. 2018. “GOP leans on rainmaker who courts controversy on two continents.” Mcclatchydc.com, 7 February. http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/article198952434.html. 87 Ibid. 88 New York Times. 2017. “How to Get Rich in Trump's Washington.” nytimes.com, 30 August. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/30/magazine/how-to-get-rich-in-trumps-washington.html.

 

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steel and aluminum tariffs, which the country attributed to a “high level and sustained advocacy” by some of its highest-ranking officials. Australia’s efforts included getting Australia native, Trump friend and former pro golfer Greg Norman to sign a letter to Trump warning against the tariffs.89

Flattery When leaders do get to speak to Trump, the key to influence in the current administration is, according to several lobbyists, to “just show up in person, promise the president you’ll create some jobs and publicly give him the credit.”90 According to The Washington Post, “While some diplomats and leaders puzzle over how to decode an opaque and often contradictory presidency, they have figured out one language to which Trump responds: flattery.”91

Multiple governments have picked up on this. Saudi Arabia projected Trump’s face onto the hotel that he stayed in and lined streets with pictures of him and the Saudi King.92 The Polish ruling Law and Justice Party bused in supporters to Warsaw to give him a great welcome.93 Shinzo Abe greeted Trump with “Donald & Shinzo, Make Alliance Even Greater” hats, mimicking his red                                                                                                                 89

New York Times. 2018. “Trump’s Tariffs Set Off Storm of Lobbying.” Nytimes.com, 16 March. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/16/us/politics/trump-tariffs-lobbying.html 90 New York Times. 2017. “How to Get Rich in Trump's Washington.” nytimes.com, 30 August. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/30/magazine/how-to-get-rich-in-trumps-washington.html 91 The Washington Post noted, “In his joint appearance with Trump, Jordan’s King Abdullah II lathered the president with praise for a “holistic approach” to the Middle East, which he said is “a move in the right direction.” It was their second meeting since Trump’s election, and Trump returned the compliments, calling Abdullah a “warrior.”” Axios (2018) wrote, “According to more than half a dozen sources who've been in the room with Trump for his interactions with foreign leaders, the president views international relations as chemistry between individuals. Trump's foreign policy depends almost entirely on his personal rapport with world leaders.” Axios. 2018. “Emmanuel Macron’s master class in soothing Trump.” Axios.com, 23 April. https://www.axios.com/emmanuel-macron-angela-merkel-donaldtrump-foreign-policy-ff739ff0-af00-4539-8f7d-f18f8951eedb.html 92 CNN. 2017. "Trump lands in Saudi Arabia as controversies swirl at home.“ Cnn.com, 20 May. https://edition.cnn.com/2017/05/20/politics/donald-trump-middle-east/index.html 93 CNN. 2017. "Conservative Polish politicians bus people in for Trump speech.“ Cnn.com, 6 July. https://edition.cnn.com/2017/07/06/politics/poland-nationalist-party-trump/index.html

 

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2016 campaign hats and slogan and lauded his golf game.94 In a first for an American president, Xi Jinping dined with Trump in the Forbidden City, the ancient palace for Chinese emperors.95

Leaders pamper Trump, as well as praise his actions and thinking on policy. South Korea, facing an existential threat in North Korea, has gone to great lengths to flatter Trump, welcoming him with a gala dinner featuring high-level officials. South Korean President Moon advocated that Trump be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for agreeing to meet with Kim Jong Un after Trump and Kim Jong Un spatted publicly in ways that, in the words of Robert Kelly, “scared the daylights out of South Koreans.”96 NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg praised Trump for pushing NATO member states to invest more in the alliance and increase defence expenditures.97 Lithuanian President Dalia Grybauskaitė praised Trump after an April 2018 meeting between Trump and leaders of the Baltic states in the White House. She said that Trump’s “unpredictable leadership” was needed to “make enough leverage and pressure for rivals to believe that we can make a decision.”98 Emmanuel Macron’s approach to Trump has been described as one of flattery.99

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CNN. 2017. " World leaders have a go-to tactic with Trump: Flattery, and lots of it.“ Cnn.com, 4 May. https://edition.cnn.com/2017/05/04/politics/trump-foreign-leaders-flattery/index.html. ABC News. 2017. “Trump, Abe bond over golf and 'Make Alliance Even Greater' hats.” Abcnews.com, 5 November. https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-golf-tokyo-2020-olympics-abe-world-matsuyama/story?id=50927090 95 South China Morning Post. 2017. “China shuts down Forbidden City in top-level personal welcome for the Trumps.” Scmp.com, 8 November. http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2118954/xi-jinping-anddonald-trump-get-personal-state-visit 96 QZ. 2018. “South Korea’s tactic for manipulating Trump: Flatter the hell out of him.” Qz.com, 22 May. https://qz.com/1285452/south-koreas-moon-jae-ins-tactic-for-manipulating-trump-flatter-the-hell-out-of-him/ 97 CNN. 2017. " World leaders have a go-to tactic with Trump: Flattery, and lots of it.“ Cnn.com, 4 May. https://edition.cnn.com/2017/05/04/politics/trump-foreign-leaders-flattery/index.html. 98 Global News. 2018. “Lithuanian president praises Donald Trump’s ‘unpredictable leadership’.” Globalnews.ca, 3 April. https://globalnews.ca/news/4120483/donald-trump-unpredictable-leadership-lithuania/ 99 The Economist. 2018. “What to expect from the Trump-Macron summit.” economist.com, 23 April. https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2018/04/23/what-to-expect-from-the-trump-macron-summit. Axios. 2018. “Emmanuel Macron’s master class in soothing Trump.” Axios.com, 23 April. https://www.axios.com/emmanuel-macron-angela-merkel-donald-trump-foreign-policy-ff739ff0-af00-4539-8f7df18f8951eedb.html

 

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When Erna Solberg, the Prime Minister of Norway, visited the White House in January 2018, she emphasized the American trade surplus with Norway, praised the quality of American products, and spoke of the American jobs that Norwegian trade brings, while mentioning how they are both close NATO allies.100 She told Norwegian journalists that she sought Trump’s support for Norway’s UN Security Council candidacy in 2020.101 Whether Norway succeeded in ensuring Trump’s commitment to NATO and his support behind the Security Council bid is uncertain, but the Norwegian PM appears to have left a positive impression on Trump. The next day, Trump stirred controversy by denouncing immigration from “shithole” or “shithouse” countries while calling for more immigration from countries such as Norway.102

Kickbacks Reports suggest that foreign diplomats and lobbyists flock to his hotel in Washington D.C., as well as Mar-a-Lago (the “Southern White House”), to stay on good terms with Trump and get into a position to influence him.103 In 2018, the Trump Organization directly pressured the Panamanian President to intervene in a dispute in the country.104 In response, the Panamanian President rejected                                                                                                                 100

The Nordic Page. 2018. “Trump: Norway is a good customer of the USA.” tnp.no, 10 January. https://www.tnp.no/norway/politics/trump-norway-good-customer-usa 101 Ibid. 102 CBS News. 2018. “Did Trump say sh*thole or sh*thouse?” cbsnews.com, 15 January. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/did-trump-say-shithole-or-shithouse/. Tilander (2018) subsequently called on the Swedish Prime Minister to model after Solberg in his upcoming meeting with Trump. Tilander, Maria. 2018. “What to expect from Sweden’s prime minister meeting President Trump.” thehill.com, 4 March. http://thehill.com/opinion/international/376642-what-to-expect-from-swedens-prime-minister-meeting-presidenttrump 103 Washington Post. 2016. “For foreign diplomats, Trump hotel is place to be.” Washingtonpost.com, 18 November. https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/capitalbusiness/2016/11/18/9da9c572-ad18-11e6-977a1030f822fc35_story.html. Politico. 2017. “Saudis foot tab at Trump hotel.” Politico.com, 9 February. https://www.politico.com/story/2017/02/trump-hotel-saudi-arabia-234878. 104 Business Insider. 2018 V. “Experts say a letter from the Trump Organization's lawyers to Panama's president is Trump's 'not so subtle attempt' to use the presidency for 'personal gain'.” Businessinsider.com, 11 April. http://uk.businessinsider.com/trump-organization-lawyer-letter-to-panama-president-experts-2018-4. Associated Press. 2018. “Trump’s company asked Panama president to help in hotel spat.” Apnews.com, 10 April. https://apnews.com/bcba3f280f5f4ce78cc10a865ca617cb

 

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the request and chided Trump for the conflict of interests.105 In 2018, the Ukrainian government stopped cooperating with Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election in order to curry favor with the Trump administration and ensure that the administration would approve arms sales.106 Furthermore, Trump repeatedly praised Philippine strongman Rodrigo Duterte, whose regime has sponsored mass atrocities in a “war on drugs”, during the same time as the Trump Organization was seeking to open a Trump Tower in Manila.107 In Indonesia, the Trump Organization has a joint business venture with a company owned by the Chinese government.108 The Trump Organization has requested and been granted trademarks in China.109

The alleged dealings of various figures in Trump’s closest orbit with foreign states do not give confidence that foreign policy in the Trump administration is based on America’s strategic interests, but rather the commercial interests of specific individuals. During 2017, Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner earned at least $82 million in outside income while serving as senior White

                                                                                                                105

Associated Press. 2018 W. “Panama president: Trump company letter on hotel a mistake.” Apnews.com, 14 April. https://www.apnews.com/00dc828522aa4024b6ab2db2e0e1dc54. 106 The New York Times. 2018 O. “Ukraine, Seeking U.S. Missiles, Halted Cooperation With Mueller Investigation.” Nytimes.com, 2 May. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/02/world/europe/ukraine-mueller-manafort-missiles.html. The Atlantic. 2018 O. “Ukraine’s Successful Courtship of Trump.” Theatlantic.com, 3 May. https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2018/05/ukraines-successful-courtship-of-trump/559526/. BBC News. 2018. “Trump lawyer 'paid by Ukraine' to arrange White House talks.” Bbc.com, 23 May. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-44215656. The Ukrainian government reprtedly hired Trump fixer, Michael Cohen, after feeling incapable of getting through to the White House through normal channels (BBC News 2018). 107 Washington Post. 2017. “The Trump Tower Manila shows why Trump can never truly separate himself from his brand.” Washingtonpost.com, 13 June. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/the-trump-tower-manilashows-why-trump-can-never-truly-separate-himself-from-his-brand/2017/06/12/28701dfe-3a46-11e7-a59b26e0451a96fd_story.html 108 New York Times. 2018. “Trump Indonesia Real Estate Project Gets Chinese Government Ally.” Nytimes.com, 15 May. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/15/world/asia/trump-hotel-china-indonesia.html 109 New York Times. 2018. “Trump Adds Another Chinese Trademark to His Portfolio.” Nytimes.com, 23 May. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/23/business/trump-china-trademarks.html

 

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House advisors. 110 While serving as a senior advisor, Ivanka Trump was seeking trademark approvals in a number of countries, including China, Canada and the Philippines.111 A number of ambassadors told The Washington Post that due to the difficulties in getting through to the Trump White House via official channels that they tried to make use of connections to members of Trump’s family.112 Trump’s son-in-law and trusted foreign policy advisor, Jared Kushner, appeared to fail at extract financing from Qatar on a highly indebted property owned by Kushner, and shortly afterwards supported an economic blockade against Qatar by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.113 There have furthermore been reports on Kushner’s close relationship with the then-new Saudi ruler Mohammed bin Salman, and whether he is in hock to the Saudi prince.114 There is reportedly intelligence that substantiates that at least four states (the United

                                                                                                                110

Washington Post. 2018. “Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump made at least $82 million in outside income last year while serving in the White House, filings show.” Washingtonpost.com, 11 June. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/jared-kushner-and-ivanka-trump-made-at-least-82-million-in-outsideincome-last-year-while-serving-in-the-white-house-filings-show/2018/06/11/a41d0720-6dab-11e8-bd50b80389a4e569_story.html 111 New York Times. 2018. “Ivanka Trump Wins China Trademarks, Then Her Father Vows to Save ZTE.” Nytimes.com, 28 May. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/28/business/ivanka-trump-china-trademarks.html. New York Times. 2017. “Ivanka Trump’s Global Reach, Undeterred by a White House Job.” Nytimes.com, 18 April. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/18/business/ivanka-trump-trademark-brand.html 112 Washington Post. 2017. “Trump promised an ‘unpredictable’ foreign policy. To allies, it looks incoherent.” Washingtonpost.com, 11 April. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-promised-an-unpredictable-foreignpolicy- to-allies-it-looks-incoherent/2017/04/11/21acde5e-1a3d-11e7-9887-1a5314b56a08_story.html 113 Washington Post. 2018. "Kushner Companies confirms meeting with Qatar on financing.” Washingtonpost.com, 19 March. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/kushner-companies-confirms-meeting-with-qatar-onfinancing/2018/03/18/55e281ac-1e3c-11e8-9de1-147dd2df3829_story.html. Bloomberg News. 2017. “Kushner Cos. Sought Qatar Funds as Jared Advised Trump.” bloomberg.com, 11 July. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-11/kushner-cos-sought-qatar-funds-as-jared-advised-trump. NBC News. 2018. “Qataris opted not to give info on Kushner, secret meetings to Mueller.” Nbcnews.com, 12 March. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/qataris-opted-not-give-info-kushner-secret-meetings-muellern855326 114 Washington Post. 2018. “How Jared Kushner forged a bond with the Saudi crown prince.” Washingtonpost.com, 19 March. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/how-jared-kushner-forged-a-bond-with-the-saudi-crownprince/2018/03/19/2f2ce398-2181-11e8-badd-7c9f29a55815_story.html. According to sources in The Intercept (2018), Kushner may have helped the new Saudi prince crack down on dissenters by providing classified information about them, and one source alleged that the Saudi prince had bragged about Kushner being “in his pocket”.

 

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Arab Emirates, China, Israel and Mexico) have sought to use Kushner’s complex business arrangements and financial difficulties to manipulate him.115

A number of individuals in Trump’s orbit have sought to leverage their ties to Trump for private profit. During the 2016 presidential campaign and during the transition, Michael T. Flynn worked undisclosed as a lobbyist for a Dutch company with ties to the Erdogan regime.116 On election day, Flynn wrote an op-ed in The Hill where he called for American backing of the Erdogan regime and harshly criticized Fethullah Gülen, a regime opponent who lives in exile in the United States.117 Ex-CIA Director James Woolsey said that Flynn was in a meeting in September 2016 with senior Turkish officials and Erdogan’s son-in-law where they discussed the abduction and unlawful extradition of Gülen to Turkey.118

George Nader, a top Trump fund-raiser, and deputy finance chairman of the Republican National Committee Elliott Broidy, ran a multimillion dollar lobbying campaign on behalf of the rulers of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. The goal of the campaign was to lobby Trump to get

                                                                                                                115

Washington Post. 2018. “Kushner’s overseas contacts raise concerns as foreign officials seek leverage.” Washingtonpost.com, 27 February. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/kushners-overseascontacts-raise-concerns-as-foreign-officials-seek-leverage/2018/02/27/16bbc052-18c3-11e8-942d16a950029788_story.html 116 New York Times. 2017. “Michael Flynn Was Paid to Represent Turkey’s Interests During Trump Campaign.” Nytimes.com, 10 March. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/10/us/politics/michael-flynn-turkey.html 117 The Hill. 2016. “Our ally Turkey is in crisis and needs our support.” Thehill.com, 8 November. http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/foreign-policy/305021-our-ally-turkey-is-in-crisis-and-needs-our-support. Weeks prior to being hired by the company with ties to Erdogan‘s regime, Flynn spoke fondly of the attempted coup against Erdogan and criticized the Erdogan regime (Huffington Post 2016). Hufington Post. 2016. “Trump’s National Security Adviser Changed His Mind About Turkey Coup Attempt After His Firm Got Involved.” Huffingtonpost.com, 21 November. https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/mike-flynn-turkey-coup_us_58324909e4b099512f8376d4 118 Wall Street Journal. 2017. “Ex-CIA Director: Mike Flynn and Turkish Officials Discussed Removal of Erdogan Foe From U.S.” wsj.com, 24 March. https://www.wsj.com/articles/ex-cia-director-mike-flynn-and-turkish-officialsdiscussed-removal-of-erdogan-foe-from-u-s-1490380426

 

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tough on Iran and Qatar, and to sack Rex Tillerson.119 Broidy’s lobbyism was so aggressive that some of his associates warned him that he would lose access to the president or violate anticorruption laws; he successfully managed to introduce Congolese, Angolan and Romanian clients of his to the President.120 Broidy and Nader, as well as a third top GOP fund-raiser, Steve Wynn, also lobbied the administration to expel a Chinese dissident to China. The plan was to extradite the Chinese dissident to the UAE where the dissident had a business dispute, and the UAE would then send the dissident onwards to China where he would face corruption charges. Broidy was lobbying on behalf of Chinese allies in Malaysia, whereas Nader had close ties with the UAE, and Wynn had business interests in China.121

Conclusion Trump lacks a robust sense of what to do on a large number of public policy matters. He has shown a tendency to take multiple sides on issues, as well as a failure to understand the basics of many fundamental US political debates. He has often backtracked on proposals of his own when these proposals appear to contradict Republican orthodoxy. However, he has shown a relatively consistent and principled view on three matters of utmost importance to small states: free trade, alliances and rule- and norm-based diplomacy. It is uncertain to what extent the Republican

                                                                                                                119

New York Times. 2018. “How a Witness for Mueller and a Republican Donor Influenced the White House for Gulf Rulers.” Nytimes.com, 21 March 2018. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/21/us/politics/george-nader-elliottbroidy-uae-saudi-arabia-white-house-influence.html 120 New York Times. 2018. “Fund-Raiser Held Out Access to Trump as a Prize for Prospective Clients.” Nytimes.com, 25 March 2018. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/25/us/politics/elliott-broidy-trump-access-circinuslobbying.html. McClatchy. 2018. “GOP leans on rainmaker who courts controversy on two continents.” Mcclatchydc.com, 7 February. http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/article198952434.html. 121 New York Times. 2018. “Seeking Foreign Money, G.O.P. Donor Pushed for Trump to Golf With Malaysian Premier.” Nytimes.com, 19 April. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/19/world/asia/elliott-broidy-trump-malaysiachina-guo.html

 

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establishment, the legislative branches and his advisors can restrain his deeply held beliefs that free trade is wrong, alliances are pointless, and working within institutional frameworks is foolish.

As of this writing, there have been no foreign policy crises that have tested his commitment to NATO, but his public remarks thus far fail to demonstrate a credible commitment. He has however acted on his trade views, forcefully pushing for tariffs, and speaking fondly of trade wars. It is clear that there is substantial support for protectionism in the United States, as shown by the popularity of Bernie Sanders’ 2016 candidacy, Hillary Clinton’s opposition to the Trans-Pacific Partnership, and the Republican electorate and establishment’s acceptance of Donald Trump. Worryingly, the Republican electorate appears to have grown deeply hostile to free trade, which could have major adverse consequences on the trade front in the future. After all, Republican members of Congress have been a reliable source of support for free trade agreements and liberalization of the world economy. If Republican members of Congress adopt the Trumpist skepticism of free trade and make free trade a polarized issue in US politics, there would be longterm worries for small states, which are so heavily reliant on an open and stable world economy.122

His administration has furthermore taken steps that could seriously destabilize organizations, such as the WTO, and shown little regard for engaging in reciprocal relations with allies or states in general. There is no clear line that separates the presidency and the commercial interests of Trump                                                                                                                 122

One of the more alarming aspects of the Trump presidency is the extent to which the Republican Party has either acquiesced or abetted Trump in his rhetoric, actions and ethical lapses. Elected Republican officials could easily restrain Trump by using their legislative power, procedural power and investigative power, but they have not done so. Even Republican Senators who frequently criticize Trump refuse to use their powers of office to hold Trump‘s feet to the fire, see Politico. 2018. “Why Trump's GOP critics never go nuclear.” Politico.com, 17 July. https://www.politico.com/story/2018/07/17/trump-critics-nuclear-russia-putin-728974. House Speaker Paul Ryan has repeatedly blocked legislation to compel Trump to release his tax returns, see Chait, Jonathan. 2017. “Hilarious Paul Ryan Forgets to Mention That He’s Concealing Trump Tax Returns.” Nymag.com, 20 October. http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/10/ryan-forgets-to-mention-hes-concealing-trump-tax-returns.html    

 

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and those close to him. Ambassadorship positions remain unfilled, and news reports have documented how states seek to lobby Trump by enriching him and his orbit. Small states are less capable of engaging in that kind of diplomacy and will consequently struggle to influence American foreign policy.

Trump can take actions that benefit or harm specific small states, and there are strategies that individual small states can adopt to get in good graces with Trump. But it is clear that the actions taken to undermine free trade, America’s alliances, and rule- and norm-based diplomacy will harm small states on the whole. While a genuine disaster is unlikely in the short-term, there is a heightened tail risk that unrepairable harm is done to the liberal international order. For large states in the international system, the effects of a Trump presidency are far more uncertain. Large states are simply not as reliant on trade, alliances and the functioning of international organizations in terms of their security and prosperity.

Trump has the impulses to take a wrecking ball to the liberal world order, but whether he does so depends on factors that simply cannot be estimated or predicted. Whether he destroys the WTO, starts trade wars, reneges on NATO commitments, leaves allies hanging or starts destabilizing wars ultimately depends on jockeying for power among his top staff within the administration, how media portrays him and his actions, and whether or not an action ultimately harms or benefits the commercial interests of him, his family and others in his orbit. So, the future of the liberal international order rests on random factors such as the persuasiveness of Tucker Carlson, whether one top aide with firm policy convictions gets embroiled in scandal, whether Trump can stomach

 

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John Bolton’s mustache, and whether a trade war will hurt or benefit the bottom line of Ivanka’s clothing firm. In other words, the liberal world order is on very fragile ground.

 

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