... Australian Nahonal University, Canberra. 9 June 2017 .... alert might cause panic and unnecessary havoc on roads. I'd add that PDC were also worried about ...
1994 volcanic erup0ons at Rabaul Papua New Guinea David Lindley Presenta0on to U3A, University House, Australian Na0onal University, Canberra 9 June 2017
Rabaul yu swit moa iet
1. Pre-1983
3. Erup0on 19/9/94
Monthly caldera earthquakes totals 1968-1994 and levelling results 1973-1994
Benchmark height (m)
Number of earthquakes
2. 1983-84 Seismic crisis
1. Pre - 1983
Six erup0ve episodes during past 250 years 1767, 1791, 1850s, 1878, 1937, 1994 24-59 year intervals Rabaul is one of few towns or ci0es worldwide that has been built inside the caldera of an ac0ve volcanic system • The erup0ons of 1937 claimed more than 500 lives • Popula0on of Rabaul (1994) – 17,000 • Popula0on of town and hinterland >100,000 • • • •
New Ireland
4°10'
Korere
Nonga
New Britain
PAPUA NEW GUINEA
Tovanumbatir Matalau
RVO RABAUL BM21
Nodup QEP
Palangiangia
Port Moresby
Baai
Sulphur Creek
Kabiu
Lakunai Tavurvur
Turagunan 4°15'
Matupit Is Tavana
Talwat
Vulcan
Vulcan Island
0
4°20'
8 kilometres
HQ - Ralum Vunakanau
Tokua KOKOPO
HQ - Vunadidir
152°10'
152°15'
Vunapope
152°20'
Rabaul town – jewel of the southwest Pacific
Main wharf - Rabaul
Idyllic Simpson Harbour with Tavurvur volcano
Simpson Harbour and Vulcan volcano
Rabaul market, 27 August 1994 - 22 days before the erup0on
Rabaul market, 27 August 1994 - 22 days before the erup0on
Vunairoto Community School – North Coast
2. 1983-1984 Seismic crisis
Benchmark height (m)
Number of earthquakes Monthly caldera earthquakes totals 1968-1985 and levelling results 1973-1985
Caldera earthquake loca0ons for the crisis period 1/9/83 to 31/7/85
CRISIS PERIOD - VOLCANO CONTINGENCY PLANNING
DEVELOPMENT OF 4-STAGE ALERT SYSTEM STAGE 1 – Erup0on in years to months. Normal preparedness STAGE 2 – Erup0on within months. Prepare safe areas STAGE 3 – Erup0on within weeks or days. Voluntary evacua0on STAGE 4 – Erup0on within days or hours. Evacua0on Assumed that erup0on would proceed in an orderly way from Stage 1 thru to Stage 4.
VOLCANO CONTINGENCY PLAN (VCP) UN-sponsored disaster planning expert Main objec0ve of the VCP was the reloca0on of about 60,000 people from danger areas to areas of rela0ve safety Remarkable that the major churches (Catholic, Uni0ng) were not involved ini0ally Exercises did not involve businesses or general community of Rabaul
ESTABLISHMENT OF PUBLIC INFORMATION UNIT (PIU) To disseminate informa0on about the unrest. To confront the problem of community distrust towards volcanologists of the RVO
Poster showing hazard/danger zones and (rela0vely) safe areas developed in 1983-84
CRISIS PERIOD DUPLICATION OF SERVICES AND INFRASTRUCTURE IN SAFE AREAS 1. Re-opening of former WWII airstrip at Vunakanau
2. Roads to and water supplies in the safe areas were improved
3. A safe area headquarters command post was established at Vunadidir
4. Equipment and medical supplies were moved from Nonga Hospital, near Rabaul, to Vunapope, near Kokopo
5. Construc0on began on a wharf near Kokopo
6. Construc0on started on a new airport to the east of Rabaul (Tokua)
1983-84 crisis period - uplig at levelling benchmark, SE end of Matupit Island
1983-84 crisis period – upgrade of WWII Vunakanau airstrip
1983-84 crisis period – upgrade of WWII Vunakanau airstrip
1983-84 crisis period – Vulcan volcano
1983-84 crisis period – Vulcan’s vent
1983-84 crisis period – Tavurvur volcano
1983-84 crisis period – Tavurvur’s vent
3. Twin erup0ons 19 September 1994 Tavurvur 6:06 am Vulcan 7:17 am
Benchmark height (m)
Number of earthquakes Monthly caldera earthquakes totals 1968-1994 and levelling results 1973-1994
Caldera earthquake loca0ons for the period 1/8/85 to 17/9/94 Note the northeast earthquake zone east of Rabaul town
OFFICIAL CHRONOLOGY OF EVENTS 18 & 19 SEPTEMBER 1994
SUNDAY 18 SEPTEMBER • 2:51 am – two strong caldera earthquakes M 4.9 & M 5.1 • 5:00 pm – ager sustained earthquake ac0vity since 2:51 am, seismicity intensified; many magnitudes > M 3.5 • 6:00 pm – RVO recommended that PDC raise alert to STAGE 2. Raising of alert broadcast on Radio ENB • Late agernoon – exodus of people from villages near Vulcan and Matupit Island • 11:00 pm – PDC began evacua0on of about 5,000 people who did not have transport and had gathered at Queen Elizabeth Park • ~ midnight – RVO advised PDC that ‘Rabaul Volcano was on an irreversible course towards and erup0on’ and that a recommenda0on for declara0on of STAGE 3 was imminent
OFFICIAL CHRONOLOGY OF EVENTS 18 & 19 SEPTEMBER 1994 (cont.)
MONDAY 19 SEPTEMBER • 12:30 am - Radio ENB closed for the night. Between closure and resump0on of broadcas0ng at 5:30 am the radio sta0on con0nued to broadcast the message that Rabaul was on STAGE 2 alert and that people should remain in their homes un0l further no0ce. • This anomaly arose because PDC had decided to delay declaring STAGE 3 un0l first light. The PDC reasoned that the evacua0on was proceeding smoothly during the night and it was felt that announcement of a heightened state of alert might cause panic and unnecessary havoc on roads. I’d add that PDC were also worried about loo0ng of Rabaul on the night. • 2:00 am - RVO faxed recommenda0on to raise alert to STAGE 3 to PDC and Na0onal Disaster & Emergency Services in Port Moresby. • ~3:00 am - Radio Australia reporter in Port Moresby Sean Dorney had been advised of this development which was broadcast. • 6:06 am - Tavurvur erup0on. • 7:00 am - PDC declared simultaneously STAGE 3 & STAGE 4 alerts, and requested a State of Emergency. By this 0me Rabaul town had been already engulfed in a dense emission plume. • 7:17 am - Vulcan erup0on.
PERSONAL RECOLLECTIONS OF 18 & 19 SEPTEMBER 1994
• Very early Sunday morning - two large earthquakes felt. Assumed they were tectonic quakes. • All day Sunday - myself and family were at our Kokopo home. Kokopo is about 13 km S.E. of Rabaul, and outside of caldera. Numerous small quakes were felt at Kokopo throughout the day. We were shaken all day and the following night. • Early Sunday evening – The fellows at my explora0on camp in the Baining Mountains 20 miles south of Rabaul, and with access to local VHF radio network (we used the planta0on frequency), called to say that they were hearing that Rabaul was being evacuated. They had not felt any quakes during the day. For a geologist this report was a concern. • ~8:00 pm Sunday - my parents phoned from Australia saying that TV news was repor0ng that Rabaul was erup0ng. Fake news. • ~later in night Sunday/Monday– significant increase in vehicles on the main road past our house (from Rabaul). We could see lead lights of many boats now heading out of Rabaul towards Kokopo. None of us slept all night. We never finished watching that terrible movie on the local TV sta0on EMTV! • ~day-break Monday morning – 2 Chinese families arrived at our front gate with news Tavurvur is erup0ng. We invited them in and run down to the beach to see first ash from Tavurvur. 5 families (23 people) were to stay with us for many months.
Caldera earthquake loca0ons 18-19 September 1994
Newly emerged sea floor at Vulcan as seen at 6:15 am on 19 September 1994; 6 m of uplig
Vulcan’s erup0on column as seen from Space Shuqle at 7:00 am on 20 September 1994
Twin erup0ons of Vulcan (L) and Tavurvur, 19 September 1994
Twin erup0ons on morning of 19 September 1994, overlooking caldera from Taligap
Air Niugini Captain Barry Huff – pilot of last aircrag to depart from Rabaul airport
AIR NIUGINI FOKKER F28 P2-ANB – LAST FLIGHT FROM RABAUL CAPTN BARRY HUFF’S RECOLLECTIONS
• • •
• • •
Sunday agernoon. Landed aircrag at Rabaul and shutdown. Wondered why the ground staff had commenced loading cargoes. There was no loading. It was a tremor shaking the aircrag. During early evening from front of Rabaul Travelodge could hear 0n roofs raqling from the far side of harbour. “At 10.00 pm I set off to the airport to check on the aircrag and the condi0on of the runway.” There were reports of rising water levels due to a tsunami in the harbour. “A runway inspec0on with DCA staff showed no damage and water levels around the airport were normal. I did a second airport inspec0on at about 1.00 am – again normal.” 1.30 am Tremors were 3 minutes apart and the Travelodge manager ordered evacua0on of all guests to Vunakanau. Barry had liqle choice. He never slept and kept the keys to the hotel bus with him all night. 5:00 am The Airport Manager found Barry at Vunakanau and they headed back to airport. “The streets of Rabaul were now completely deserted, and the radio which was now back on the air was broadcas0ng from the Na0onal Disaster and Emergency Service advising that Rabaul was only on Stage 2 alert and not Stage 3 and that the seismic tremors were not related to any volcanic ac0vity. They further advised that no evacua0on of Rabaul had been ordered.”
• • • •
• • • • •
AIR NIUGINI FOKKER F28 P2-ANB – LAST FLIGHT FROM RABAUL CAPTN BARRY HUFF’S RECOLLECTIONS (cont.) “The aircrag was however prepared for departure.” A check with the DCA briefing room found severe damage to communica0ons equipment. Radios had come loose from racks and fallen to the floor. “It looked like a bomb had gone off.” “The tarmac near the western end of the parking bay was very much damaged with a large deep crack of around 2 m and I was concerned there might be others on the runway itself.” 6:06 am Tavurvur commenced erup0on. “I remember the call on the Company radio from the Airport Manager (I thought he was joking): Can we board the passengers now? The volcano is erup0ng.” “A most incredible sight presented itself through the cockpit windows…there it was (Tavurvur) right in front of me.” “I transmiqed a PAN call to Port Moresby advising the situa0on and we hurriedly completed our pre-start checks and boarded all passengers.” “A quick check of the terminal revealed the airport was now deserted, and by engine start the ash plume was about 3,000 g.” “It was with quite some relief that the APU and both engines started normally. Furthermore we had refuelled the night before.” There was a wind from the S.E. but I “elected to accept the downwind and take off on R30 (runway three zero) as it was away from Tavurvur.” 6:30 am “As we backtracked on the runway and turned for takeoff, we were so close to the erup0ng volcano we could almost touch it.”
Tavurvur erup0on plume engulfing Rabaul town at about 7:25 am on 19 September 1994
AIR NIUGINI FOKKER F28 P2-ANB – LAST FLIGHT FROM RABAUL CAPTN BARRY HUFF’S RECOLLECTIONS (cont.)
•
• • •
• •
“As we lined up on the runway another unbelievable sight – a fully loaded truck with 30 people on board crashed through the airport perimeter fence at high speed and drove straight across the runway in front of us and disappeared amongst some airport buildings, the despera0on and panic clearly evident on their faces.” “Although the wind was 5-10 kts from the S.E. I took off on runway 30 using full throqle as this took us away from the erup0on”. “The condi0on of the strip was s0ll good and the take off roll and lig off was normal”. Ager gewng airborne “we did a complete circuit of the town”. A Japanese tourist with a video camera came up (to the cockpit) and videoed the erup0on and it appeared on youtube several years later. 7:45 am Landed Port Moresby. Submiqed a DCA Air Safety Incident Report due to the PAN call.
Rabaul airport with Tavurvur in the background
Air Niugini Fokker F28 on runway R30, Rabaul airport
Vulcan – aggressive ash-laden erup0on phase, 19 September 1994
Vulcan – small pyroclas0c flow, 19 September 1994
Rabaul-Kokopo Road at Karavia Bay. Vulcan erup0ng agernoon of 19 September 1994
Rabaul-Kokopo Road at Tavana village, agernoon 19 September 1994
Pacific Helicopters’ stranded chopper at Rabaul airport and Tavurvur ash plume, 24 September 1994
Rabaul town, 24 September 1994
4. Post 19 September 1994 Care centres
CARE CENTRES DATE
NO OF RESIDENTS
COMMENTS
25 Sept 1994
90,776
Ist census, 6 days ager erup0on
27 Sept 1994
99,821
4 Oct 1994
103,312
276 care centres
• Es0mated daily cost of feeding each resident K1.50 (= AU$ 1.65; late 1994 kina and dollar figures). • Disaster Commiqee placed emphasis on reducing numbers in care centres. • Non-Tolai (Sepiks, Highlanders, Papuans) were provided free passage to their home provinces. Possibly 15,000 were repatriated. Some took the opportunity for a free trip, only to return later. • Tolais were persuaded or ordered to return to villages. • Care centres reduced to 8 by end of 1994. • PIU team (geologist-David Lindley; ENBPG lawyer-Matalau Nakikus; RPNGC officer-Sergeant Pidi) visited care centres during early weeks.
Care centres during late 1994
Evacua0on of residents of Talwat village on 20 September 1994, assisted by MV Madang Coast. Tavurvur in the background
Care centre – Kokopo High School, December 1994
5. Post 19 September 1994 Property damage
Aerial view of Rabaul town, early January 1996
The ‘new’ Rabaul Post Office on Mango Avenue, December 1994
Brian Bell department store, Mango Avenue, December 1994
Rabaul Police Sta0on, Mango Avenue, December 1994
Hennessy’s Bakery, Mango Avenue, December 1994
Damage to Kokopo Road, December 1994
Malaguna Road, Rabaul town, December 1994
Rabaul-Kokopo Road near Vulcan volcano, December 1994. Site of Valaur village
Banana led recovery, December 1994
6. Con0nuing ac0vity Tavurvur 14 August 2014
CONCLUSIONS
1. Local community-led orderly evacua0on ahead of 1994 erup0on. Aqributed to historical reasons and community awareness developed during previous 10 years. 2. Failure of RVO and PDC to give adequate erup0on warning, despite high levels of funding during previous 10 years with good instrumenta0on and technical staffing. 3. Begs the ques0on as to what, if any, volcano monitoring should occur elsewhere in PNG, e.g. Bagana, Uluwan, Lolobau, Pago, Dakataua, Cape Gloucester, Manam, Lamington. Involves remote monitoring from RVO. Vandalism and equipment failures are common (and costly) in these areas. 4. Perhaps community awareness is the most effec0ve means of volcano erup0on warning. Use of mobile phones and internet is widespread throughout rural and urban PNG.
Rabaul erup0on from Pigeon (Credner) Islands
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS & SOURCES OF INFORMATION
PHOTOGRAPHS Schnaubelt family collec0on (Rabaul views) Huff collec0on I.D. Lindley collec0on (1983-83 seismic crisis and Rabaul pre- and post-erup0on) Chris McKee (items from McKee et al. 2017)
UNPUBLISHED Capt. Barry Huff – personal recollec0ons and notes PNG Department of Civil Avia0on – Air Safety Incident Report, 19 September 1994 I.D. Lindley – personal notes from work with ENBPG PIU, September-October 1994 Wally Johnson – personal recollec0ons
PUBLISHED Lindley, I.D. (1995). The 1994-1995 Rabaul volcanic erup0ons: Human aspects. Royal Society of New South Wales, Bulle0n Nos. 188-190 (July-September 1995). McKee, C., I0karai, I. & Davies, H. (2017). Instrumental volcano surveillance and community awareness in the lead-up to the 1994 erup0ons at Rabaul, Papua New Guinea. Advances in Volcanology, doi: 10.1007/11157_2017_4.
