innovation within the public circle comes with a creative use of government data by either presenting these in simple tw
2015 QUICK FACTS
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BUDGET IMPLEMENTATION REPORT
About BudgIT BudgIT is a civic organisation driven to make the Nigerian budget and public data more understandable and accessible across every literacy span. BudgIT’s innovation within the public circle comes with a creative use of government data by either presenting these in simple tweets, interactive formats or infographic displays. We have a goal to use creative technology to intersect civic engagement and institutional reform. Lead Partner : Oluseun Onigbinde Research Team: Atiku Samuel, Folasayo Onigbinde, Akinbo Abayomi and Oluwadamilola Oladunjoye Creative: Richard Ofunrein Contact:
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This report is supported by Omidyar Network © 2016 Disclaimer: This document has been produced by BudgIT to provide information on budgets and public data issues. BudgIT hereby certifies that all the views expressed in this document accurately reflect our analytical views that we believe are reliable. The report does not comment on the quality of capital infrastructure in states but notes that the protracted opacity in state finances might have hindered a fairer and a more objective assessment. Whilst reasonable care has been taken in preparing this document, no responsibility or liability is accepted for errors or for any views expressed herein by BudgIT for actions taken as a result of information provided in this Report.
2015
BUDGET IMPLEMENTATION REPORT
N5.06tn TOTAL BUDGET SIZE
The 2015 budget of N5.06tn was anchored on projected oil price benchmark of $53 per barrel but averaged $43.69 in Q4 2015. The significant reduction owes to the instability of international market prices for crude oil barrels. Volume of production was pegged at 2.28mbpd at an average of 400,000 barrels for local use. Nigeria witnessed series of pipeline vandalisms and oil well attacks cutting Nigeria’s actual production to 2.19mpbd in Q4 2015. Oil and Non-Oil revenue items fell short of their respective quarterly projections.
TOTAL PUBLIC DEBT STOCK (FG & STATES) EXTERNAL RESERVE
$65.4bn $28.28bn
Source: Budget Office
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2015
BUDGET IMPLEMENTATION REPORT
HIGHLIGHTS FROM 2015 PERFORMANCE
93% Transfer to Excess Crude Account decreased from N796bn in 2014 to N48bn in 2015 93% reduction
N20bn oil excess revenue was recorded in 2014 as opposed to zero recorded in 2015
N24.7bn
13%
No cost of collection for recorded for DPR in 2014. In 2015, DPR received a collection cost of N24.7bn
Derivation of Net Oil revenue (paid to oil producing states) plummeted by 49% from N610bn in 2014 to N375bn in 2015
Source: Budget Office
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2015
BUDGET IMPLEMENTATION REPORT
FEDERATION ACCOUNT
2015
BUDGET IMPLEMENTATION REPORT
2015 BUDGET PERFORMANCE OIL REVENUE
30.9% SHORTFALL
OIL REVENUE
N5.43tn
TARGET
N3.75tn
ACTUAL
OIL REVENUE FOR FEDERATION 2008 2009 2010
N6.53tn N2.78tn N4.43tn
2011
N8.85tn
2012 LOWEST SINCE 2009
N8.03tn
2013
N6.79tn
2014 2015
N6.73tn N3.75tn
Source: Budget Office
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2015
BUDGET IMPLEMENTATION REPORT
2015 BUDGET PERFORMANCE NON-OIL REVENUE
34.14%
N3.57tn
TARGET
N2.35tn
ACTUAL
SHORTFALL
NON-OIL REVENUE
NON-OIL REVENUE FOR THE FEDERATION 2008 2009 2010
N1.10tn N1.33tn N1.53tn
2011
N1.79tn
2012 NON-OIL REVENUE IN 2015 LOWEST SINCE 2013
N2.03tn
2013
N2.21tn
2014
N2.57n
2015
N2.35tn
Source: Budget Office
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2015
BUDGET IMPLEMENTATION REPORT
2015 BUDGET PERFORMANCE REVENUE FROM GAS
85.3%
ACTUAL
SHORTFALL
REVENUE FROM GAS SALES
N89.9bn
REVENUE FROM GAS SALES FOR THE FEDERATION 2008 2009 2010
LNG REVENUE FROM GAS SALES IN 2015 LOWEST SINCE 2010
N612.1bn
TARGET
N180.84bn N70.12bn N41.13bn
2011
N258.85bn
2012
N350.02bn
2013
N255.12bn
2014 2015
N309.03bn N89.93bn
Source: Budget Office
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2015
BUDGET IMPLEMENTATION REPORT
VALUE ADDED TAX Low consumer spending, government at Federal, State and local government did not spend enough on capital items. Issues relating to outstanding salaries affected purchasing power of Nigerians.
VAT
N1.28tn
VAT TARGET
*ACTUAL REVENUE
N778.7bn
(60%)
Source: Budget Office
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2015
BUDGET IMPLEMENTATION REPORT
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT
2015
BUDGET IMPLEMENTATION REPORT
2015 BUDGET PERFORMANCE INDEPENDENT REVENUE
33.91%
N489.3bn
TARGET
N323.4bn
ACTUAL
SHORTFALL
FG INDEPENDENT FG INDEPENDENT REVENUE REVENUE 2008 2009 2010
$ FG INDEPENDENT REVENUE IN 2015 HISTORICAL HIGH
N114.6bn N71.2bn N153.6bn
2011
N182.5bn
2012
N206.8bn
2013
N273.4bn
2014
N295.3bn
2015
N323.4bn
Source: Budget Office
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2015
BUDGET IMPLEMENTATION REPORT
2015 BUDGET PERFORMANCE PERSONNEL COST
1.88%
N1.83tn N1.87tn
TARGET ACTUAL
ABOVE TARGET
PERSONNEL COST
PERSONNEL COST 2008 2009
N942.53bn N857.04bn
2010
$ PERSONNEL COST IN 2015 HISTORICAL HIGH
N1.56tn
2011
N1.85tn
2012
N1.81tn
2013
N1.75tn
2014
N1.66tn
2015
N1.87tn
Source: Budget Office
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2015
BUDGET IMPLEMENTATION REPORT
2015 BUDGET PERFORMANCE DOMESTIC DEBT SERVICING
11.42%
N894.6bn N996.8bn
TARGET ACTUAL
ABOVE TARGET
DOMESTIC DEBT SERVICING
DOMESTIC DEBT SERVICING 2008 2009 2010 2011
N319.67bn N209.51bn N375.76bn N485.42bn
2012 DOMESTIC DEBT SERVICING IN 2015 HISTORICAL HIGH
N632.86bn
2013
N772.39bnbn
2014
N880.39bn
2015
N996.8bn
Source: Budget Office
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2015
BUDGET IMPLEMENTATION REPORT
2015 BUDGET PERFORMANCE FOREIGN DEBT SERVICING
7.75%
N59.01bn N63.59bn
TARGET ACTUAL
ABOVE TARGET
FOREIGN DEBT SERVICING
FOREIGN DEBT SERVICING 2008 2009 2010
N59.044bn N37.25bn N39.86bn
2011
N41.66bn
2012 FOREIGN DEBT SERVICING IN 2015
N46.42bn
2013
N55.71bn
2014
N61.28bn
2015
N63.59bn
Source: Budget Office
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2015
BUDGET IMPLEMENTATION REPORT
2015 BUDGET PERFORMANCE CAPITAL EXPENDITURE
34.94%
N557bn
TARGET
N362.39bn
ACTUAL
SHORTFALL
CAPITAL EXPENDITURE
FG’s CAPITAL EXPENDITURE 2008 2009
N711.63bn N562.37bn
2010
N883.87bn
2011
N918.55bn
2012 CAPITAL EXPENDITURE IN 2015
N744.42bn
2013
N912.87bn
2014 2015
N587.61bn N362.39bn
Source: Budget Office
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2015
BUDGET IMPLEMENTATION REPORT
INFLOWS FOR FEDERAL GOVERNMENT BREAKDOWN FGN Share of Customs, Import excise & Duties
FGN Share of Corporate Income Tax
TAX
N651.19bn N323.97bn Projected
N473.32bn N232bn *Actual 71% performance
72% performance
FGN Independent Revenue
FGN Share of Customs, Import excise & Duties
N489.29bn
N617bn N463.68bn
N323.37bn
Projected
*Actual
Projected
*Actual
Actual
Projected
66% performance Source: Budget Office
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2015
BUDGET IMPLEMENTATION REPORT
INFLOWS FOR FEDERAL GOVERNMENT BREAKDOWN
TAX
FGN Share of Value Added Tax
FGN Share of Oil Revenue
N1.64tn N172.53bn Projected
N1.22tn
N104.66bn *Actual
*Actual
Projected
61% performance
74% performance
FGN Share of Solid Mineral Revenue
FGN Share of Kerosine Subsidy Remittance by NNPC
N6.61bn
N37.32bn
Nill Projected
Nill
*Actual
Actual
Projected
0% performance Source: Budget Office
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2015
BUDGET IMPLEMENTATION REPORT
FISCAL DEFICIT NOTE
N362.4bn
N881.11bn
N1.53tn 2014
Was released for Capital Projects despite deficit standing above N1.5tn
2015
2015 DEFICIT FINANCE
N615.96bn Credit Advance by CBN
N330bn Domestic Borrowing
N97.5bn Others
Source: Budget Office
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2015
BUDGET IMPLEMENTATION REPORT
INSIGHTS
1
FG Debt Service keeps rising, and there is need to check cost and use of borrowing. Debt Service to Revenue has risen to 38%. This means out of every N100 Nigeria earns, it uses N38 to service debts.
2
Tax Revenue is too low for Nigeria's size, and there is need to widen the tax bracket and improve the efficiency of collections. Nigeria's gross non-oil revenue dipped by N214bn, reflecting the dip in the growth of the economy.
3
The Treasury Single Account shows promise but there is need for more efficiencies at MDAs. The net gain from TSA in 2015 as reported is N246bn. This is a good start.
4
Personnel Cost of FG rose by N213bn YoY. At a time when gains were expected due to the removal of ghost workers, this shows a contrast.
Source: Budget Office
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2015
BUDGET IMPLEMENTATION REPORT
INSIGHTS
5 6 7
As reported, oil revenue is severely threatened as gross oil revenues dropped from N6.73tn in 2014 to N3.75tn in 2015, a 44% drop. Is it not time we hastened our diversification?
FG took a credit advance of N616bn from CBN. This means FG has also been receiving bailout from CBN like the states. How and when will it pay back?
FG did not declare a single revenue from Solid Minerals. Are we saying that from all the limestone, granite and other solid minerals taken from Nigerian territory, nothing was remitted?
Source: Budget Office
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PROVISION FOR RAILWAYS
N149.3bn SELECTED RAILWAY PROJECTS
N19.8bn
N60bn
COMPLETION OF ABUJA-KADUNA SINGLE TRACK RAIL-LINE
RAILWAY MODERNIZATION LAGOS-KANO
KANO MAIDUGURI
KADUNA MINNA
ABUJA
N8.5bn
ITAKPE
COMPLETION OF ITAKPE-WARRI RAIL TRACK & SIGNAL SYSTEMS
LAGOS
WARRI
PORT HARCOURT CALABAR
OTHERS
N60bn
CONSTRUCTION OF CALABAR-LAGOS RAILWAYS
N3.2bn
for Provision of Power, Water, Station building, Fence, etc for rail lines
