information, please contact: ... CHICAGO CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT .... AT&T. 225 W. Randolph. 156,364. Negotiable.
CHICAGO CBD MARKET OVERVIEW & SNAPSHOTS FIRST QUARTER
2017
RESEARCH
FIRST QUARTER 2017 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
181 WEST MADISON STREET, SUITE 4700, CHICAGO, ILLINOIS 60602 | (312) 487-5977 | MBRES.COM
1
F I R S T Q UA RT E R
2017
CHICAGO
MARKET OVERVIEW
TABLE OF CONTENTS SE C TIO N O N E
CHICAGO ECONOMY 01 Economic Analysis SE C TIO N TWO
CHICAGO CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT 02 Chicago CBD Executive Summary SUPPLY 03 New Development 04 Sublease Space 05 Large Blocks of Direct Availability DEMAND 06 Vacancy Rates 07 Large Deals 08 Absorption FEATURES 09 10 11 12
Lease Comparables Investment Sales Forecast Market Statistics
SE C TIO N TH RE E
CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT SNAPSHOTS The Chicago Market Overview is published quarterly by MB Real Estate Services Inc. To obtain additional copies or for further information, please contact: Caitlin Ritter, Research Manager 181 West Madison Street, Suite 4700 Chicago, Illinois 60602 (312) 487-5977
[email protected] www.mbres.com
CBD SUBMARKET SNAPSHOTS 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Central Business District Map Central Loop East Loop North Michigan Avenue River North West Loop River West
SE C TIO N FO U R
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION 20 Glossary 21 About MB Real Estate
CHICAGO ECONOMY ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Total nonfarm payroll employment increased nationally by 560,000 in the first quarter of 2017, bringing the unemployment rate down to 4.5 percent overall at the end of March. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, first quarter job gains occurred primarily in professional and business services. According to the Illinois Department of Employment Security’s (IDES) latest figures, the February 2017 unemployment rate for Chicago’s total MSA, including parts of Northwest Indiana and Southern Wisconsin, was 5.3 percent, down from 6.5 percent in February 2016. Chicago’s total MSA nonfarm payroll employment increased by 40,500 during the same time period, with gains occurring primarily in government and the financial sector.
CHICAGO ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
SECTION ONE
In March, the Federal Reserve increased interest rates for the second time in three months. The 25 basis point increase, from a range of 0.5 to 0.75 percent to a range of 0.75 to 1.0 percent, was widely expected. Two additional quarter point interest rate increases are projected for 2017. HISTORIC UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%
Chicago MSA Unemployment Rate
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
0.0% National Unemployment Rate
CHICAGO MSA EMPLOYMENT CHANGE BY INDUSTRY (FEBRUARY 2016 - FEBRUARY 2017) Government
11,900
Financial activities
11,200
Education and health services
9,500
Construction
7,000
Leisure and hospitality
3,000
Trade, transportation, and utilities
2,000
Information
800
Other services
(500)
Manufacturing Professional and business services
(700)
(3,700)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
FIRST QUARTER 2017 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
1
CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The first quarter of 2017 was an exciting start for Chicago’s CBD office market, which saw the vacancy rate at an exceptionally low 11.1 percent and 733,832 square feet of positive absorption. Tenants are moving into two of the first new office towers to have been developed since 2009, 444 W. Lake and 150 N. Riverside. The resulting shadow inventory is expected to cause vacancy rates to rise slightly by the end of the year, but increasing demand has left little doubt that Chicago’s downtown office market will continue to grow. Key Indicators:
CHICAGO ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
SECTION TWO
• Large deals signed in the first quarter by rapidly expanding businesses indicate that Chicago’s CBD is well positioned to absorb the additional 2.2 million square feet of office space that is currently under construction. • Chicago’s CBD continues to attract corporations from the suburbs and other cities. Nielsen announced that it would be consolidating its suburban operations to its existing office in the CBD, which will expand by 144,000 square feet. Additionally, Kellogg announced that they opened a new office for about 50 employees in its global growth and IT departments at The Merchandise Mart, and Hickory Farms announced that it will relocate its headquarters from Toledo, Ohio to a 7,300 square foot office at 311 S. Wacker. • Howard Hughes Corporation and Riverside Investment & Development released plans for a new 1.35 million square foot office tower at 110 N. Wacker, the site of GGP’s current headquarters. • The sublease market decreased by 111,212 square feet in the first quarter of 2017, bringing the total amount of available sublease space down to 3,944,077 square feet. • Chicago’s investment sales market started the year with another slow quarter. There were only four sales transactions completed with a total of 1.7 million square feet and $549 million in total sales volume. • MBRE will no longer track the South Loop as a separate submarket. All buildings that were tracked as part of the South Loop submarket have been consolidated into the Central or East Loop submarkets. CBD VACANCY AND FIRST QUARTER ABSORPTION SUMMARY Direct Vacancy 1Q2017 Central Loop East Loop N. Michigan Ave. River North West Loop River West Chicago CBD Total Net Absorption 1Q2017 Central Loop East Loop N. Michigan Ave. River North West Loop River West Chicago CBD Total
A
Change from 3Q16
B
Change from 3Q16
C
Change from 3Q16
Total
Change from 3Q16
10.4% 8.7% 19.3% 5.1% 9.6% 1.0% 9.9%
2.0% 0.1% -1.1% -0.2% -0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
12.3% 14.0% 8.6% 10.8% 13.7% 12.6%
-0.2% -1.1% 0.1% 0.2% -0.6% -0.4%
9.8% 12.5% 10.2% 12.4% 11.1% 9.8% 11.2%
0.1% -0.2% -1.8% -0.5% -0.1% 0.1% -0.4%
11.1% 12.6% 12.4% 9.8% 10.8% 7.1% 11.1%
0.7% -0.5% -0.9% -0.2% -0.3% 0.3% -0.2%
A
B
C
Total
(138,965) (5,034) 42,323 9,201 533,669 0 441,194
24,364 109,954 (2,642) (21,101) 70,713 181,288
24,111 9,233 70,049 27,336 6,020 (25,399) 111,350
(90,490) 114,153 109,730 15,436 610,402 (25,399) 733,832 Numbers in parentheses are negative
FIRST QUARTER 2017 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
2
TENANTS MOVE INTO NEW WEST LOOP OFFICE TOWERS • Tenants are moving into two of the first new office towers to have been developed since 2009, 444 W. Lake and 150 N. Riverside. These developments will add a combined 2.3 million square feet to Chicago’s office market.
% Leased (Avg)
2000 - 2017 INVENTORY ADDITIONS 2000 - 5 Properties 2001 - 2 Properties 2002 - 2 Properties 2003 - 0 Properties 2004 - 1 Property 2005 - 2 Properties 2006 - 2 Properties 2007 - 0 Properties 2008 - 2 Properties 2009 - 3 Properties 2010 - 1 Expansion 2011 - 0 Properties 2012 - 0 Properties 2013 - 0 Properties 2014 - 0 Properties 2015 - 1 Property 2016 - 1 Property 2017 - 1 Property
• There are four additional developments currently under construction. Fulton West, Sterling Bay’s development under construction at 1330 W. Fulton in River West, is expected to be completed in July of 2017. Sterling Bay is also building 1045 W. Randolph, McDonald’s new corporate headquarters, which is expected to be completed in July of 2018. John Buck’s new development at 151 N. Franklin and White Oak Realty’s new development at 625 W. Adams are also expected to be completed in 2018.
2,870,576 904,436 2,236,364 0 1,300,000 2,500,143 1,320,498 0 728,254 3,652,913 933,710 0 0 0 0 531,190 1,073,100 1,229,064
Total - 23 Properties
• Howard Hughes Corporation and Riverside Investment & Development released plans for a new 1.35 million square foot office tower at 110 N. Wacker, the site of GGP’s current headquarters. The Chicago Plan Commission approved the plans in March and construction is expected to begin in October of this year.
sf sf sf sf sf sf sf sf sf sf sf sf sf sf sf sf sf sf
95.8% 86.9% 94.6% 0.0% 100.0% 97.4% 96.9% 0.0% 70.6% 81.4% 92.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 93.5% 78.7% 81.7%
CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT : SUPPLY
NEW DEVELOPMENT
19,280,248 sf
UNDER CONSTRUCTION/ANNOUNCED 151 N. Franklin 1045 W. Randolph 625 W. Adams 1330 W. Fulton
% Leased
820,000 608,000 443,645 287,928
Total
sf sf sf sf
48.6% 92.8% 2.0% 47.7%
2,159,573 sf
2000-2017 INVENTORY ADDITIONS Delivered (2000-2009) Delivered (2010-2016) Delivered (2017)
15,513,184 sf 2,538,000 sf 1,229,064 sf
Total
19,280,248 sf
Under Construction/Announced
2,159,573 sf
NEW DELIVERIES WILL CONTRIBUTE OVER FOUR MILLION TO INVENTORY BY 2018 20%
4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0 (500,000) (1,000,000) (1,500,000)
18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0%
2007
2008
2009
2010
New Construction Delivery (square feet)
2011
2012
2013
2014
Absorption (square feet)
2015
2016
2017 YTD
Direct Vacancy Rate %
FIRST QUARTER 2017 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
3
SUBLEASE MARKET CONTRACTS • The sublease market decreased by 111,212 square feet in the first quarter of 2017, bringing the total amount of available sublease space down to 3,944,077 square feet. This is the second quarter in a row that the sublease market inventory has contracted after reaching a seven year high in the third quarter of 2016. • The only large block of sublease space new to the market in the first quarter of 2017 is Papyrus-Recycled Greetings’ 58,073 square feet at 111 N. Canal. • Three large blocks of sublease space were taken off the market in the first quarter. Citadel and Sprout Social’s spaces at 131 S. Dearborn reached the end of their lease term and are now available as direct space. Tressler’s 51,137 square feet of sublease space at 233 S. Wacker was also taken off the market.
CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT : SUPPLY
SUBLEASE SPACE
4,500,000 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000
2,404,109
3,158,562
4,201,801
3,576,846
2,897,711
3,214,365
3,060,757
3,161,152
3,351,486
4,055,289
3,944,077
1,000,000
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 YTD
500,000 0
LARGE BLOCKS (MORE THAN 50,000 SQUARE FEET) OF SUBLEASE SPACE CURRENTLY AVAILABLE CLASS A Building Address
Size (sf)
Occupancy
Expiration
Floor(s)
Sublandlord
71 S. Wacker 233 S. Wacker 200 W. Madison 123 N. Wacker 161 N. Clark 500 W. Monroe
214,069 80,383 68,605 67,798 61,326 57,176
June 2017 Vacant Vacant March 2017 Vacant Negotiable
Feburary 2020 September 2019 September 2018 September 2022 October 2019 November 2027
10-17 46-47 2-4 24-27 6-7 12-13
Hyatt Hotels Corporation Chubb Harrington College of Design Morton Salt GE Capital Rail Services GE Healthcare
Floor(s)
Sublandlord
Total - 6 Spaces
549,357
CLASS B Building Address 225 W. Randolph 225 W. Randolph 141 W. Jackson 222 W. Merchandise Mart 1 N. Dearborn 225 W. Randolph 111 N. Canal 435-445 N. Michigan
Total - 8 Spaces
Size (sf)
Occupancy
Expiration
265,244 156,364 130,426 113,260 105,151 53,110 58,073 66,270
Vacant Negotiable 120 Days 30 Days 60 Days Vacant June 2017 30 Days
December 2022 November 2022 May 2027 June 2028 December 2025 November 2022 October 2018 June 2018
22-25, 27 17-19 2-6, 9 17 12-13 28-29 7 2
AT&T AT&T CME Group Motorola Pierce & Associates Avant Credit Papyrus-Recycled Greetings Chicago Tribune
947,898
FIRST QUARTER 2017 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
4
INCREASE IN LARGE BLOCKS OF DIRECT VACANCY • The largest block of directly available space is still the 432,709 square feet at 625 W. Adams, which has been under construction since May of 2016, but has yet to pre-lease any of its space. • The number of direct blocks of available space increased to 79 in the first quarter of 2017 from 75 in the first quarter of 2016. There is a total of 13 direct blocks larger than 200,000 square feet, up from 10 a year ago. • Of the roughly 10 million square feet of available direct large blocks, about 4.8 million are currently vacant and about 5.2 million have future availability dates. • MBRE has identified at least 54 tenants actively seeking 50,000 square feet or more in the CBD.
CLASS A Building Address
Size (sf)
Availability
Submarket
625 W. Adams
432,709
April 2018
West Loop
200 E. Randolph
354,127
August 2018
East Loop
203 N. LaSalle
277,349
Vacant
Central Loop
151 N. Franklin
257,016
June 2018
West Loop
71 S. Wacker
246,872
March 2020
West Loop
227 W. Monroe
188,346
June 2017
West Loop
515 N. State
166,082
Vacant
North Michigan Avenue
233 S. Wacker
165,153
Vacant
West Loop West Loop
CLASS B Building Address
Size (sf)
Availability
333 S. Wabash
366,506
June 2018
Submarket East Loop
300 S. Riverside
316,563
Vacant
West Loop
125 S. Clark
289,141
Vacant
Central Loop
2 N. LaSalle
241,265
Vacant
Central Loop
175 W. Jackson
228,226
Vacant
Central Loop River North
350 N. Orleans
217,822
Vacant
333 S. Wabash
209,432
June 2018
East Loop
222 N. LaSalle
165,866
June 2018
Central Loop
200 W. Monroe
158,698
January 2018
West Loop
1 N. Dearborn
156,612
Negotiable
Central Loop
222 W. Merchandise Mart
154,295
September 2018
River North
233 N. Michigan
154,082
Negotiable
East Loop
141 W. Jackson
144,404
Vacant
Central Loop
175 W. Jackson
135,369
July 2017
Central Loop
333 S. Wabash
130,895
June 2018
East Loop
120 S. Riverside
102,072
April 2018
West Loop
130 E. Randolph
99,064
Vacant
East Loop
2 N. LaSalle
84,135
Vacant
Central Loop
141 W. Jackson
82,268
Vacant
Central Loop
330 N. Green
76,432
Vacant
River West
303 E. Wacker
73,798
Vacant
East Loop
55 E. Monroe
73,145
Vacant
East Loop
100 S. Wacker
72,782
Vacant
West Loop
200 W. Jackson
70,193
Vacant
West Loop
175 W. Jackson
69,395
January 2018
Central Loop
330 N. Wabash
68,564
July 2017
North Michigan Avenue
120 N. Racine
65,716
Vacant
River West
33 W. Monroe
64,476
Vacant
Central Loop
120 S. LaSalle
62,557
Vacant
Central Loop
111 N. Canal
58,073
Negotiable
West Loop
1 S. Wacker
57,054
Vacant
West Loop
222 W. Merchandise Mart
55,708
Vacant
River North
52,373
Vacant
Central Loop
1 N. Dearborn
33 Blocks
4,356,981
500 W. Madison
155,807
January 2018
200 E. Randolph
131,268
Vacant
East Loop
550 W. Jackson
130,413
July 2017
West Loop
30 S. Wacker
129,216
June 2017
West Loop
111 S. Wacker
112,052
January 2018
West Loop
1 S. Dearborn
106,624
January 2020
Central Loop
Size (sf)
Availability
Submarket
444 W. Lake
106,292
Vacant
West Loop
311 W. Monroe
363,204
Vacant
West Loop
222 W. Adams
104,057
September 2017
West Loop
200 W. Madison
96,395
September 2018
Central Loop
401 S. State
110,898
Vacant
East Loop
233 S. Wacker
91,807
Vacant
West Loop
1 N. State
98,212
Vacant
East Loop
71 S. Wacker
91,414
July 2017
West Loop
122 S. Michigan
91,636
November 2017
East Loop
131 S. Dearborn
91,392
July 2017
Central Loop
440 S. LaSalle
89,045
Vacant
South Loop
CLASS C Building Address
122 S. Michigan
79,045
November 2017
East Loop
435-445 N. Michigan
69,943
Negotiable
North Michigan Avenue
20 N. Wacker
68,137
March 2018
West Loop
540 N. LaSalle
61,820
Vacant
River North
123 N. Wacker
84,694
February 2018
West Loop
35 W. Wacker
75,000
Vacant
Central Loop
191 N. Wacker
70,794
Vacant
West Loop
151 N. Franklin
70,450
June 2018
West Loop
1 N. Wacker
68,922
Vacant
West Loop
1 N. State
52,569
October 2017
East Loop
131 S. Dearborn
64,311
Vacant
Central Loop
1 N. State
50,023
Vacant
East Loop
131 S. Dearborn
64,311
November 2017
Central Loop
10 Blocks
71 S. Wacker
63,317
October 2017
West Loop
161 N. Clark
61,326
November 2019
Central Loop
233 S. Wacker
60,992
Vacant
West Loop
20 W. Kinzie
58,805
Vacant
River North
150 N. Riverside
57,056
Vacant
West Loop
111 S. Wacker
55,644
January 2018
West Loop
77 W. Wacker
55,032
Vacant
Central Loop
455 N. Cityfront Plaza
52,045
Vacant
North Michigan Avenue
36 Blocks
CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT : SUPPLY
LARGE BLOCKS OF DIRECT AVAILABILITY
1,045,487
4,486,135
FIRST QUARTER 2017 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
5
CBD VACANCY RATES REMAIN LOW • The total direct vacancy rate in the CBD decreased by 21 basis points from 11.35 percent at the end of the fourth quarter of 2016 to 11.14 percent at the end of the first quarter of 2017. • The Class A vacancy rate increased by 10 basis points to 9.91 percent. • The Class B vacancy rate decreased by 43 basis points in the first quarter, bringing the rate down to 12.57 percent. • The Class C vacancy rate is 11.15 percent, a 39-basis point decrease from 2016 year-end.
HISTORIC DIRECT VACANCY : RATES CONTINUE STEADY DECLINE 18%
CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT : DEMAND
VACANCY RATES
16% 14%
14.97%
16.56%
14.36%
11.67%
11.52%
15.32%
16.04%
15.41%
15.11%
14.54%
13.59%
12.03%
11.35%
11.14%
8%
14.08%
10%
13.57%
12%
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 YTD
HISTORIC YEAR-END DIRECT VACANCY MARKET BY CLASS : PATTERNS HOLD 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0%
2002
2003
2004
2005
Class A
2006
2007
2008
2009
Class B
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 YTD
Class C
FIRST QUARTER 2017 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
6
RAPIDLY EXPANDING COMPANY SIGNS LARGE DEAL • There were eight large new deals and 15 large renewal, expansion, and sublease deals signed in the first quarter of 2017. • The largest new deal signed in the first quarter was a 394,000-square foot lease signed by Outcome Health (formerly ContextMedia) at 515 N. State. The rapidly growing company will be relocating from 330 N. Wabash, where it currently occupies approximately 66,000 square feet. Outcome Health’s lease will bring 515 N. State’s occupancy up to 95.2 percent after being less than 50 percent for the past two years. • The largest renewal of the first quarter was for Sidley Austin’s 575,000 square feet at 1 S. Dearborn. The renewal is a big win for the building, as Sidley Austin occupies 70 percent of the property. However, it was likely a disappointment for multiple developers that had been hoping to launch their new office developments by signing a deal with the large law firm. • Nielsen jumped on the suburban migration bandwagon, announcing that they will be consolidating all of their suburban operations to their existing downtown office and expanding their current 71,000 square foot print at 200 W. Jackson to 215,000 square feet.
CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT : DEMAND
LARGE DEALS
LARGE LEASE TRANSACTIONS (OVER 15,000 SQUARE FEET) NEW Tenant
Type
Submarket
Building Address
Size (sf)
Outcome Heath (formerly ContextMedia Inc.) The National Restaurant Association Intersport HUB Insurance 1WorldSync Sikich The Climate Corporation Liquidus Marketing
New New New New New New New New
North Michigan Ave West Loop East Loop Central Loop West Loop West Loop River West West Loop
515 N. State 233 S. Wacker 303 E. Wacker 203 N. LaSalle 300 S. Riverside 200 W. Madison 1330 W. Fulton 200 W. Jackson
394,000 50,852 30,176 28,000 22,247 22,146 21,315 17,392
Total - 8 Deals
586,128
RENEWAL/EXPANSION/SUBLEASE Tenant
Type
Submarket
Building Address
Sidley Austin LLP Nielsen PPM America, Inc. The Warranty Group Grainger BDT Capital Partners iManage ABN AMRO Clearing Burns & McDonnell Enova International Nitel Home Chef PayPal/Braintree Signal BluePay Processing
Ren Ren/Exp Ren/Exp Ren/Cont Ren Ren/Exp Exp Exp Ren/Exp Exp Sublease Sublease Exp Sublease Sublease
Central Loop West Loop West Loop Central Loop West Loop North Michigan Ave West Loop Central Loop West Loop Central Loop River North North Michigan Ave River North Central Loop West Loop
1 S. Dearborn 200 W. Jackson 225 W. Wacker 175 W. Jackson 500 W. Madison 401 N. Michigan 540 W. Madison 175 W. Jackson 200 W. Adams 175 W. Jackson 350 N. Orleans 400-410 N. Michigan 222 W. Merchandise Mart 222 N. LaSalle 500 W. Madison
Total - 15 Deals
Size (sf) 574,812 215,000 100,671 67,000 60,000 58,000 48,307 42,775 36,409 34,926 32,115 29,095 27,698 26,282 18,377
1,371,467
FIRST QUARTER 2017 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
7
TENANTS MOVE INTO NEW DEVELOPMENTS • There was a total of 733,832 square feet of positive absorption in the CBD in the first quarter of 2017, created primarily by tenants moving into the new developments at 444 W. Lake and 150 N. Riverside. Some of this positive absorption will be balanced out by negative absorption later in the year as these relocating tenants fully vacate their existing spaces. • There was 138,965 square feet of negative Class A absorption in the Central Loop due to DLA Piper’s move out of approximately 303,954 square feet at 203 N. LaSalle to relocate to the new office building at 444 W. Lake. This large amount of negative absorption was partially offset by 189,000 square feet of additional space occupied by J.P Morgan Chase at 10 S. Dearborn. • The largest contributors to the positive Class B absorption were Clark Hill’s occupation of 71,818 square feet at 130 E. Randolph and Conversant’s occupation of 15,979 square feet at 101 N. Wacker. The largest contributor to the positive Class C absorption was the 68,082 square feet that Ann & Robert Lurie Children’s Hospital moved into at 211 E. Chicago.
CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT : DEMAND
ABSORPTION
HISTORIC ABSORPTION 3,000,000 2,566,896
2,500,000
2,144,094 1,888,648
2,000,000 1,500,000
1,305,274
1,275,048 913,519
1,000,000
733,832
720,110 472,780
500,000 0 (74,794)
(500,000) (1,000,000)
(136,763)
(298,110)
(509,999) (670,489)
(720,154)
(936,680)
(1,500,000) 2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 YTD
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 YTD
HISTORIC ABSORPTION BY SUBMARKET
4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 0 (1,000,000) (2,000,000) 2002
Central Loop
2003
2004
East Loop
2005
2006
River North
North Michigan Avenue
South Loop
West Loop
River West
FIRST QUARTER 2017 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
8
RENTAL RATES STABILIZE
• The average initial net rent for new deals in the past year, across all classes, was $22.01 per square foot. Average renewal net rent across all classes was $20.47 per square foot. • New and renewal rental rates all increased except for Class A renewals. Landlords may be offering better renewal rates to keep tenants from relocating to the shadow space created by new developments. • The highest net asking rents for space at existing Class A properties currently on the market is $46 per square foot. • The average estimated initial taxes and operating costs for leases signed over the past year was $17.17 for Class A properties, $14.35 for Class B properties, and $13.17 for Class C properties.
AVERAGE LEASE TERMS ON NEW AND RENEWAL DEALS AVERAGE NET INITIAL RATE
NEW DEALS
2Q2016 - 1Q2017 2Q2015 - 1Q2016 2Q2014 - 1Q2015 2Q2013 - 1Q2014 2Q2012 - 1Q2013 2Q2011 - 1Q2012 2Q2010 - 1Q2011 2Q2009 - 1Q2010 2Q2008 - 1Q2009 2Q2007 - 1Q2008 2Q2006 - 1Q2007 2Q2005 - 1Q2006 2Q2004 - 1Q2005 2Q2003 - 1Q2004
AVERAGE ABATEMENT (MONTHS)
AVERAGE TERM (YEARS)
A
B
C
A
B
C
A
B
C
A
B
C
$24.64
$20.06
$19.46
$58.09
$51.48
$48.95
6.8
6.4
6.8
7.7
7.1
7.2
$24.48
$19.89
$16.34
$57.14
$50.19
$41.48
8.3
5.4
5.0
8.7
6.5
6.6
$21.74
$19.86
$16.20
$54.52
$52.23
$50.59
8.9
6.0
5.5
8.4
6.8
6.0
$18.82
$16.99
$15.15
$41.53
$37.11
$35.20
6.2
5.5
4.8
7.8
6.5
5.6
$19.91
$16.08
$14.34
$34.27
$29.96
$21.93
6.4
6.0
4.7
7.2
6.4
5.5
$19.95
$15.08
$13.33
$41.65
$32.08
$22.97
6.8
6.9
5.4
7.7
7.0
5.8
$20.11
$15.10
$11.14
$44.58
$26.16
$22.48
8.7
6.8
7.5
8.1
6.7
6.8
$19.79
$15.29
$11.97
$39.52
$26.87
$17.74
8.2
6.2
4.4
7.9
6.4
5.6
$22.23
$17.04
$13.85
$43.91
$38.87
$32.74
5.2
4.5
4.4
8.6
7.2
7.6
$19.40
$15.73
$12.25
$40.56
$38.87
$24.66
4.8
4.4
4.1
7.3
6.7
6.5
$18.12
$13.93
$15.39
$49.24
$38.58
$15.19
6.2
5.1
1.9
9.0
7.4
4.8
$18.09
$12.67
$10.25
$49.16
$38.58
$26.99
7.2
5.7
4.9
8.9
7.6
7.1
$16.67
$12.92
$10.05
$43.12
$42.82
$23.24
7.0
7.2
3.8
10.1
8.7
6.2
$17.22
$12.63
$9.43
$40.92
$36.90
$15.89
4.4
5.6
3.1
8.6
8.2
6.2
AVERAGE NET INITIAL RATE
RENEWAL DEALS
2Q2016 - 1Q2017 2Q2015 - 1Q2016 2Q2014 - 1Q2015 2Q2013 - 1Q2014 2Q2012 - 1Q2013 2Q2011 - 1Q2012 2Q2010 - 1Q2011 2Q2009 - 1Q2010 2Q2008 - 1Q2009 2Q2007 - 1Q2008 2Q2006 - 1Q2007 2Q2005 - 1Q2006 2Q2004 - 1Q2005 2Q2003 - 1Q2004
AVERAGE TENANT IMPROVEMENT
AVERAGE TENANT IMPROVEMENT
AVERAGE ABATEMENT (MONTHS)
CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT : FEATURES
LEASE COMPARABLES
AVERAGE TERM (YEARS)
A
B
C
A
B
C
A
B
C
A
B
C
$23.04
$18.60
$18.30
$30.39
$20.28
$16.69
4.4
4.1
2.3
5.9
5.1
5.0
$24.32
$18.40
$15.67
$25.31
$18.71
$17.34
4.7
3.8
2.6
6.6
5.2
3.9
$24.66
$18.49
$16.47
$38.14
$22.79
$48.83
5.2
6.1
7.5
6.6
6.2
4.8
$19.80
$16.35
$12.49
$24.84
$15.34
$9.36
4.4
5.1
3.0
6.0
5.8
3.8
$18.80
$15.41
$12.64
$16.00
$10.47
$9.74
5.1
3.1
2.6
6.5
4.5
4.0
$19.10
$14.02
$14.09
$14.16
$9.26
$10.70
4.3
4.1
4.1
5.2
4.2
4.6
$19.79
$15.24
$10.28
$18.89
$10.56
$7.37
5.8
4.3
5.7
6.1
4.6
4.5
$17.80
$15.71
$11.56
$20.47
$10.92
$7.04
6.5
3.4
3.3
6.3
5.1
4.5
$21.72
$16.64
$15.36
$22.32
$16.11
$16.49
2.7
3.3
3.0
6.3
5.5
6.7
$20.16
$15.58
$13.57
$22.23
$17.28
$21.06
6.1
2.6
2.0
7.4
5.3
7.6
$16.07
$13.07
$16.68
$22.14
$17.67
$7.28
4.9
2.9
1.3
6.7
8.4
4.5
$16.12
$12.60
$14.39
$24.67
$16.20
$7.45
5.7
1.8
0.0
8.2
6.5
5.4
$16.44
$13.07
$10.12
$22.75
$22.50
$8.23
3.5
3.9
0.9
8.1
7.7
5.1
$18.54
$13.59
$10.27
$23.36
$16.99
$8.93
2.0
3.1
1.5
8.7
7.0
6.3
FIRST QUARTER 2017 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
9
INVESTMENT SALES MARKET REMAINS SLUGGISH
• Chicago’s investment sales market started the year with another slow quarter. There were only four sales transactions completed, with a total of 1.7 million square feet and $549 million in total sales volume. Two additional sales are currently pending. • The largest sale completed in the first quarter was 181 W. Madison, which sold to HNA Group for $360 million, or $378 per square foot. • Five new properties came on to the market in the first quarter, bringing the total number of investment opportunities up to seven, with a combined total of approximately 4.9 million square feet. • Rising interest rates may negatively impact capitalization rates and valuations, which is expected to suppress the investment market in 2017.
CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT : FEATURES
INVESTMENT SALES
FIRST QUARTER INVESTMENT MARKET ACTIVITY Building Address
Sale Date
Size (sf)
Price
Price per SF
Class
Seller
Status/Buyer
225 W. Wacker
On Market (1st Qtr 2017)
650,812
$270,000,000
$415
A
Mirae/Hines
Marketing
1-33 S State
On Market (1st Qtr 2017)
753,686
$200,000,000
$265
B
Madison Capital/KKR
Marketing
311 W. Monroe
On Market (1st Qtr 2017)
386,000
$77,000,000
$199
C
PGIM Real Estate/ GlenStar Properties
Marketing
33 N. LaSalle
On Market (1st Qtr 2017)
404,769
$73,000,000
$180
C
John Buck
Marketing
300 S. Wacker
On Market (1st Qtr 2017)
512,354
$155,000,000
$303
B
Beacon Capital Partners
Marketing
401 N. Michigan
On Market (3rd Qtr 2016)
761,164
$325,000,000
$427
B
Zeller Realty
Marketing
540 W. Madison
On Market (1st Qtr 2016)
1,111,925
$650,000,000
$585
A
Third Millenium
Marketing
125 S. Wacker
Under Contract (1st Qtr 2017)
510,426
$141,000,000
$276
B
MetLife
Callahan Capital/Ivanhoe Cambridge
150 N. Wacker
Under Contract (1st Qtr 2017)
246,613
$75,000,000
$304
B
American Realty Advisors
Randy Rissman
181 W. Madison
1st Qtr 2017
952,560
$360,000,000
$378
A
CBRE Global Investors
HNA Group
1333 N. Kingsbury
1st Qtr 2017
100,000
$27,800,000
$278
B
Everbury Partners
Credit Suisse AG
303 W. Erie
1st Qtr 2017
62,000
$15,000,000
$242
C
Cedar Street Companies
Alvarez & Marsal
123 N. Wacker
1st Qtr 2017
540,676
$146,500,000
$271
A
LNR Properties
LaSalle Investment Management
1,655,236
$549,300,000
$332
2017 YTD Sales
FIRST QUARTER 2017 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
10
ADDED INVENTORY TO INCREASE VACANCY RATE The Chicago office market has experienced steady growth over the past couple years and is well positioned to absorb new inventory that is being added to the market. However, the overall vacancy rate can be expected to increase by at least one full percentage point over the next year. Also, rental rates in the CBD are not likely to increase significantly until the additional inventory and shadow space created by tenants relocating to new developments is leased. There were a significant number of large new deals and expansions signed in the first quarter of 2017, which is an indicator of positive momentum in the future. If this pace of deal execution continues, the market should be able to rapidly regain equilibrium. Investment sales activity is expected to remain subdued in 2017 due to rising interest rates, which can have a negative impact on capitalization rates and property valuations. In the meantime, many Class A buildings, particularly those in the West Loop, will be undergoing major renovations over the next few years to compete with the high level of standards set by the newly constructed trophy towers. Blackstone Group, for example, announced that it will be investing $500 million into Willis Tower renovations.
Year
Total Historic and Forecasted Inventory (SF)
Total Historic & Forecasted Occupancy (SF)
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
122,776,164 124,713,268 125,037,423 126,452,643 128,385,650 126,478,575 125,626,639 125,269,078 130,038,076 130,539,796 130,649,210 131,044,641 131,021,405 131,035,247 132,712,489 132,712,489
108,743,284 107,598,500 106,754,119 106,568,104 105,737,728 108,402,912 110,969,808 110,833,045 110,112,891 109,602,891 110,516,410 111,238,394 111,964,734 113,231,032 116,743,521 118,112,204
134,162,702 136,322,275
119,215,028 119,992,563
YTD 2017 2018
2007-2016 Absorption Avg:
777,536
2017 YTD Absorption:
733,832
Direct Vacancy % 11.4% 13.7% 14.6% 15.7% 17.6% 14.3% 11.7% 11.5% 15.3% 16.0% 15.4% 15.1% 14.5% 13.4% 12.0% 11.3%
CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT : FEATURES
FORECAST
11.1% 12.0%
tForecasted occupancy based on 10-year trailing absorption average *Inventory & occupancy reflect year end numbers
HISTORIC & PROJECTED VACANCY
140,000,000
20%
135,000,000
18% 16%
130,000,000
14%
125,000,000
12%
120,000,000
10%
115,000,000
8% 6%
110,000,000
4%
105,000,000 100,000,000
2% 2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Total Historic and Forecasted Inventory (SF)
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Total Historic & Forecasted Occupancy (SF)
2015
2016
YTD 2017
2018
0%
Direct Vacancy %
FIRST QUARTER 2017 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
11
2017 1st Quarter Market Preview*
Direct Vacancy (sf)
Direct Vacancy %
Occupancy (sf)
Sublease Vacancy (sf)
Total Vacancy Rate (Direct + Sublease) %
RBA (sf)
YTD Absorption (sf)
1st Quarter Absorption (sf)
Class A
14,680,555
(138,965)
(138,965)
1,524,580
10.4%
13,155,975
374,479
12.9%
Class B
15,204,607
24,364
24,364
1,877,099
12.3%
13,327,508
422,726
15.1%
CENTRAL LOOP
Class C
7,762,955
24,111
24,111
764,389
9.8%
6,998,565
121,571
11.4%
Total
37,648,116
(90,490)
(90,490)
4,166,068
11.1%
33,482,048
918,776
13.5%
EAST LOOP
RBA (sf)
YTD Absorption (sf)
1st Quarter Absorption (sf)
Direct Vacancy (sf)
Direct Vacancy %
Occupancy (sf)
Sublease Vacancy (sf)
Total Vacancy Rate (Direct + Sublease) %
Class A
4,108,119
(5,034)
(5,034)
358,909
8.7%
3,749,210
66,065
10.3%
Class B
10,940,478
109,954
109,954
1,536,499
14.0%
9,403,979
278,637
16.6%
Class C
7,805,392
9,233
9,233
973,595
12.5%
6,831,797
103,164
13.8%
Total
22,853,989
114,153
114,153
2,869,003
12.6%
19,984,986
447,866
14.5%
N. MICHIGAN AVE.
RBA (sf)
YTD Absorption (sf)
1st Quarter Absorption (sf)
Direct Vacancy (sf)
Direct Vacancy %
Occupancy (sf)
Sublease Vacancy (sf)
Total Vacancy Rate (Direct + Sublease) % 21.5%
Class A
3,825,688
42,323
42,323
739,126
19.3%
3,086,562
83,123
Class B
4,694,377
(2,642)
(2,642)
403,734
8.6%
4,290,643
44,999
9.6%
Class C
3,774,762
70,049
70,049
385,212
10.2%
3,389,550
200,640
15.5%
Total
12,294,827
109,730
109,730
1,528,072
12.4%
10,766,755
328,762
15.1%
RIVER NORTH
RBA (sf)
YTD Absorption (sf)
1st Quarter Absorption (sf)
Direct Vacancy (sf)
Direct Vacancy %
Occupancy (sf)
Sublease Vacancy (sf)
Total Vacancy Rate (Direct + Sublease) %
Class A
3,912,549
9,201
9,201
201,074
5.1%
3,711,475
80,238
7.2%
Class B
4,150,200
(21,101)
(21,101)
447,168
10.8%
3,703,032
214,899
16.0%
Class C
5,429,026
27,336
27,336
671,545
12.4%
4,757,481
164,574
15.4%
Total
13,491,775
15,436
15,436
1,319,787
9.8%
12,171,988
459,711
13.2%
WEST LOOP
RBA (sf)
YTD Absorption (sf)
1st Quarter Absorption (sf)
Direct Vacancy (sf)
Direct Vacancy %
Occupancy (sf)
Sublease Vacancy (sf)
Total Vacancy Rate (Direct + Sublease) %
Class A
27,200,832
533,669
533,669
2,598,700
9.6%
24,602,132
1,206,707
14.0%
Class B
11,854,673
70,713
70,713
1,621,832
13.7%
10,232,841
367,572
16.8%
Class C
5,411,917
6,020
6,020
602,976
11.1%
4,808,942
163,877
14.2%
Total
44,467,422
610,402
610,402
4,823,508
10.8%
39,643,914
1,738,156
14.8%
RIVER WEST
RBA (sf)
YTD Absorption (sf)
1st Quarter Absorption (sf)
Direct Vacancy (sf)
Direct Vacancy %
Occupancy (sf)
Sublease Vacancy (sf)
Total Vacancy Rate (Direct + Sublease) %
Class A
1,051,383
0
0
10,420
1.0%
1,040,963
8,197
1.8%
Class C
2,355,190
(25,399)
(25,399)
230,816
9.8%
2,124,374
42,609
11.6%
Total
3,406,573
(25,399)
(25,399)
241,236
7.1%
3,165,337
50,806
8.6%
TOTALS
RBA (sf)
YTD Absorption (sf)
1st Quarter Absorption (sf)
Direct Vacancy (sf)
Direct Vacancy %
Occupancy (sf)
Sublease Vacancy (sf)
Total Vacancy Rate (Direct + Sublease) %
Class A
54,779,126
441,194
441,194
5,432,809
9.9%
49,346,317
1,818,809
13.2%
Class B
46,844,334
181,288
181,288
5,886,332
12.6%
40,958,002
1,328,833
15.4%
Class C
32,539,242
111,350
111,350
3,628,533
11.2%
28,910,709
796,435
13.6%
Total CBD
134,162,702
733,832
733,832
14,947,674
11.1%
119,215,028
3,944,077
14.1%
CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT : FEATURES
MARKET STATISTICS
Numbers in parentheses are negative
*Initial numbers - subject to change
FIRST QUARTER 2017 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
12
CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT : FEATURES
SECTION THREE
SUBMARKET MAP
FIRST QUARTER 2017 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
13
LARGE TENANT RECOMMITS There was 90,490 square feet of total negative absorption in the Central Loop this quarter. There was 48,475 square feet of positive absorption in Central Loop Class B and C properties, but it was outweighed by 138,965 square feet of negative absorption in Class A properties. The negative absorption was caused by DLA Piper vacating 303,954 square feet at 203 N. LaSalle when they moved into the new tower at 444 W. Lake.
LARGEST BLOCKS OF DIRECT AVAILABILITY Building Address
The Central Loop’s overall direct vacancy rate increased by 66 basis points to 11.07 percent. However, some of this increase was due to a number of buildings being added to the Central Loop inventory from the South Loop submarket, which we are no longer tracking as a separate submarket.
Size (sf)
Availability
Building Class
125 S. Clark
289,141
Vacant
B
203 N. LaSalle
277,349
Vacant
A
2 N. LaSalle
241,265
Vacant
B
175 W. Jackson
228,226
Vacant
B
222 N. LaSalle
165,866
June 2018
B
1 N. Dearborn
156,612
Negotiable
B
141 W. Jackson
144,404
Vacant
B
175 W. Jackson
135,369
July 2017
B
1 S. Dearborn
106,624
January 2020
A
200 W. Madison
96,395
September 2018
A
131 S. Dearborn
91,392
July 2017
A
440 S. LaSalle
89,045
Vacant
A
2 N. LaSalle
84,135
Vacant
B
141 W. Jackson
82,268
Vacant
B
35 W. Wacker
75,000
Vacant
A
175 W. Jackson
69,395
January 2018
B
33 W. Monroe
64,476
Vacant
B
131 S. Dearborn
64,311
Vacant
A
131 S. Dearborn
64,311
November 2017
A
120 S. LaSalle
62,557
Vacant
B
161 N. Clark
61,326
November 2019
A
77 W. Wacker
55,032
Vacant
A
1 N. Dearborn
52,373
Vacant
B
A
B
C
Total
14,680,555
15,204,607
7,762,955
37,648,116
(138,965)
24,364
24,111
(90,490)
Direct Vacancy Rate
10.4%
12.3%
9.8%
11.1%
Total Vacancy Rate (Direct + Sublease)
12.9%
15.1%
11.4%
13.5%
The largest deal signed in the first quarter was Sidley Austin’s renewed lease for 574,812 square feet at 1 S. Dearborn. The lease renewal is good news for the Central Loop, as many developers had been trying to woo the company to new developments in the West Loop. The Central Loop’s boundaries are the Chicago River (North), Wells Street (West), State Street (East), and Van Buren Street (South). The Central Loop includes the Financial District, as well as many government offices, law firms, and professional services. It is also beginning to attract growing start-up companies as well. CENTRAL LOOP SUMMARY Inventory (square feet) Year to Date Absorption (square feet)
CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT : SUBMARKET SNAPSHOTS
CENTRAL LOOP
Numbers in parantheses are negative
CENTRAL LOOP SUBMARKET HISTORICAL DIRECT VACANCY 25% 20% 15%
17.5%
15.2%
11.8%
11.4%
12.7%
13.6%
13.8%
13.2%
13.7%
12.7%
11.1%
10.4%
11.1%
0%
15.2%
5%
14.7%
10%
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 YTD
FIRST QUARTER 2017 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
14
ANOTHER STRONG QUARTER FOR THE EAST LOOP The East Loop had a strong quarter with 114,153 square feet of total absorption. The overall direct vacancy rate decreased by 54 basis points from 2016 year end to 12.55 percent in the first quarter of 2017. Class B saw the most activity, with 109,954 square feet of positive absorption. The largest tenant move-in was Clark Hill’s relocation into 71,818 square feet at 130 E. Randolph. The only large new deal executed in the East Loop during the first quarter was Intersport’s lease of 30,176 square feet at 303 E. Wacker. The East Loop is bordered by the Chicago River (North), State Street (West), Lake Shore Drive (East), and Van Buren Street (South). It is inhabited by a variety of corporate tenants with a heavy lean toward advertising and media firms.
EAST LOOP SUMMARY
LARGEST BLOCKS OF DIRECT AVAILABILITY Building Address
Size (sf)
Availability
Building Class
333 S. Wabash
366,506
June 2018
B
200 E. Randolph
354,127
August 2018
A
333 S. Wabash
209,432
June 2018
B
233 N. Michigan
154,082
Negotiable
B
200 E. Randolph
131,268
Vacant
A
333 S. Wabash
130,895
June 2018
B
401 S. State
110,898
Vacant
C
130 E. Randolph
99,064
Vacant
B
1 N. State
98,212
Vacant
C
122 S. Michigan
91,636
November 2017
C
122 S. Michigan
79,045
November 2017
C
303 E. Wacker
73,798
Vacant
B
55 E. Monroe
73,145
Vacant
B
1 N. State
52,569
October 2017
C
1 N. State
50,023
Vacant
C
A
B
C
Total
4,108,119
10,940,478
7,805,392
22,853,989
(5,034)
109,954
9,233
114,153
Direct Vacancy Rate
8.7%
14.0%
12.5%
12.6%
Total Vacancy Rate (Direct + Sublease)
10.3%
16.6%
13.8%
14.5%
Inventory (square feet) Year to Date Absorption (square feet)
CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT : SUBMARKET SNAPSHOTS
EAST LOOP
Numbers in parantheses are negative
EAST LOOP SUBMARKET HISTORICAL DIRECT VACANCY 25% 20% 15%
22.4%
19.1%
14.2%
12.1%
16.3%
20.2%
19.3%
19.7%
18.6%
17.7%
16.5%
13.1%
12.6%
0%
18.4%
5%
17.2%
10%
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 YTD
FIRST QUARTER 2017 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
15
LARGEST NEW DEAL OF THE QUARTER
The North Michigan Avenue submarket saw a total of 109,730 square feet of positive absorption in the first quarter. The overall direct vacancy rate decreased by 88 basis points to 12.43 percent.
LARGEST BLOCKS OF DIRECT AVAILABILITY Building Address
Size (sf)
Building Class
166,082
Vacant
A
69,943
Negotiable
C
330 N. Wabash
68,564
July 2017
B
455 N. Cityfront Plaza
52,045
Vacant
A
515 N. State
The majority of the positive absorption was created by Ann & Robert H. Lurie Children’s Hospital moving in to 68,082 square feet at 211 E. Chicago.
Availability
435-445 N. Michigan
The largest new deal of the quarter in the CBD was in the North Michigan Avenue submarket: Outcome Health’s (formerly Context Media) lease of 394,000 square feet at 515 N. State. The lease will bring the building’s occupancy rate, which has been less than 50 percent since the American Medical Association moved out of the building in 2013, up to 95 percent. The North Michigan Avenue submarket borders include Division Street (North), State Street (West), Lake Michigan (East), and the Chicago River (South). It is home to retailers, hotels, restaurants, entertainment venues, advertising and marketing agencies, and the Northwestern Memorial Hospital campus.
NORTH MICHIGAN AVENUE SUMMARY Inventory (square feet)
A
B
C
Total
3,825,688
4,694,377
3,774,762
12,294,827
Year to Date Absorption (square feet)
42,323
(2,642)
70,049
109,730
Direct Vacancy Rate
19.3%
8.6%
10.2%
12.4%
Total Vacancy Rate (Direct + Sublease)
21.5%
9.6%
15.5%
15.1%
CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT : SUBMARKET SNAPSHOTS
NORTH MICHIGAN AVENUE
Numbers in parantheses are negative
NORTH MICHIGAN AVENUE SUBMARKET HISTORICAL DIRECT VACANCY 25% 20% 15%
14.0%
14.0%
11.8%
11.4%
16.7%
18.2%
19.5%
20.5%
19.2%
17.2%
14.9%
13.3%
12.4%
0%
12.7%
5%
10.8%
10%
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 YTD
FIRST QUARTER 2017 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
16
RIVER NORTH VACANCY RATE REMAINS LOW The River North submarket had 15,436 square feet of positive absorption in the first quarter of 2017 and an overall direct vacancy rate of 9.78 percent, down 18 basis points from last quarter.
LARGEST BLOCKS OF DIRECT AVAILABILITY Building Address
The Merchandise Mart continues to attract premium tenants to the River North submarket. Kellogg announced that they have opened a new office for about 50 employees in its global growth and IT departments at The Merchandise Mart. Braintree, which is now owned by Paypal, expanded its space at The Mart by 27,698 square feet.
Size (sf)
Availability
Building Class
350 N. Orleans
217,822
Vacant
222 W. Merchandise Mart
154,295
September 2018
B
540 N. LaSalle
61,820
Vacant
C
20 W. Kinzie
58,805
Vacant
A
222 W. Merchandise Mart
55,708
Vacant
B
B
The borders of the River North submarket are defined as Division Street (North), Racine Avenue (West), State Street (East), and the Chicago River (South). Historically, it has been home to small, older buildings that cater to furniture galleries and small businesses, but has more recently become a hub for technology, startups, and trading firms.
RIVER NORTH SUMMARY Inventory (square feet)
A
B
C
Total
3,912,549
4,150,200
5,429,026
13,491,775
Year to Date Absorption (square feet)
9,201
(21,101)
27,336
15,436
Direct Vacancy Rate
5.1%
10.8%
12.4%
9.8%
Total Vacancy Rate (Direct + Sublease)
7.2%
16.0%
15.4%
13.2%
CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT : SUBMARKET SNAPSHOTS
RIVER NORTH
Numbers in parantheses are negative
RIVER NORTH SUBMARKET HISTORICAL DIRECT VACANCY 25% 20% 15%
14.5%
12.6%
10.6%
9.2%
15.8%
13.6%
11.7%
9.1%
9.1%
8.9%
8.0%
10.0%
9.8%
0%
19.3%
5%
11.9%
10%
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 YTD
FIRST QUARTER 2017 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
17
NEW DEVELOPMENTS DELIVERED Tenants are moving into two of the first new office towers to be developed since 2009, 444 W. Lake and 150 N. Riverside. These developments will add a combined 2.3 million square feet to Chicago’s office market.
LARGEST BLOCKS OF DIRECT AVAILABILITY Building Address
Size (sf)
Availability
625 W. Adams
432,709
April 2018
A
311 W. Monroe
363,204
Vacant
C
There are two additional developments currently under construction in the West Loop: John Buck’s new development at 151 N. Franklin and White Oak Realty’s new development at 625 W. Adams, both of which are expected to be completed in 2018.
300 S. Riverside
316,563
Vacant
B
151 N. Franklin
257,016
June 2018
A
550 W. Jackson
130,413
July 2017
A
Howard Hughes Corporation and Riverside Investment & Development released plans for a new 1.35 million square foot office tower at 110 N. Wacker, the site of GGP’s current headquarters. The Chicago Plan Commission approved the plans in March and construction is expected to begin in October of this year.
30 S. Wacker
129,216
June 2017
A
111 S. Wacker
112,052
January 2018
A
444 W. Lake
106,292
Vacant
A
222 W. Adams
104,057
September 2017
A
120 S. Riverside
102,072
April 2018
B
The largest new deal executed in the West Loop in the first quarter was The National Restaurant Association’s lease of 50,852 square feet at Willis Tower. The owner of Willis Tower, Blackstone Group, announced that the iconic building will be undergoing a $500 million renovation. Nielsen announced that it will be consolidating its multiple suburban offices to its West Loop office at 200 W. Jackson, which will be expanded from 71,000 square feet to 215,000 square feet.
Building Class
71 S. Wacker
246,872
March 2020
A
227 W. Monroe
188,346
June 2017
A
233 S. Wacker
165,153
Vacant
200 W. Monroe
158,698
January 2018
B
500 W. Madison
155,807
January 2018
A
A
233 S. Wacker
91,807
Vacant
A
71 S. Wacker
91,414
July 2017
A
123 N. Wacker
84,694
February 2018
A
550 W. Washington
73,121
Vacant
A B
100 S. Wacker
72,782
Vacant
200 W. Jackson
71,781
Vacant
B
191 N. Wacker
70,794
Vacant
A
151 N. Franklin
70,450
June 2018
A
200 W. Jackson
70,193
Vacant
B
1 N. Wacker
68,922
Vacant
A
20 N. Wacker
68,137
March 2018
C
71 S. Wacker
63,317
October 2017
A
233 S. Wacker
60,992
Vacant
A
111 N. Canal
58,073
Negotiable
B
150 N. Riverside
57,056
Vacant
A
1 S. Wacker
57,054
Vacant
B
111 S. Wacker
55,644
January 2018
A
CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT : SUBMARKET SNAPSHOTS
WEST LOOP
The West Loop’s borders are defined as the Chicago River (North), I-94/I-90 (West), Wells Street (East), and Van Buren Street (South). The West Loop is the largest submarket and is home to law firms, financial services firms, insurance companies, and multiple corporate headquarters. WEST LOOP SUMMARY Inventory (square feet) Year to Date Absorption (square feet)
A
B
C
Total
27,200,832
11,854,673
5,411,917
44,467,422 610,402
533,669
70,713
6,020
Direct Vacancy Rate
9.6%
13.7%
11.1%
10.8%
Total Vacancy Rate (Direct + Sublease)
14.0%
16.8%
14.2%
14.8%
WEST LOOP SUBMARKET HISTORICAL DIRECT VACANCY 25% 20% 15%
17.3%
11.5%
10.2%
11.8%
16.6%
15.8%
14.2%
13.9%
13.1%
12.2%
10.9%
11.1%
10.8%
0%
14.4%
5%
14.6%
10%
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 YTD
FIRST QUARTER 2017 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
18
FULTON MARKET CONTINUES TO REDEVELOP MBRE began officially tracking the River West submarket in 2015. River West continues to have the least availability in the CBD. Overall direct vacancy is at 7.08 percent. Direct vacancy for Class A properties remains at an exceptionally low 1 percent. The only real leasing opportunities are at developments that are currently proposed or under construction.
LARGEST BLOCK OF DIRECT AVAILABILITY Building Address
Size (sf)
Availability
Building Class
330 N. Green
76,432
Vacant
B
120 N. Racine
65,716
Vacant
B
The Fulton Market area in River West has attracted many investors eager to capitalize on the rapidly redeveloping area that includes Google’s Chicago headquarters and McDonald’s future headquarters. There are a wide variety of developments planned and under construction in the Fulton Market area, including: hotels, multi-family buildings, retail space, recreational facilities, and office space. One large deal was executed in River West in the first quarter by The Climate Corporation, who signed a new lease for 21,315 square feet at 1330 W. Fulton. The development is currently under construction and expected to be completed in July of 2017.
CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT : SUBMARKET SNAPSHOTS
RIVER WEST
River West’s borders are defined as Erie Street (North), Ashland Ave (West), I-90/94 Kennedy Expressway (East), and I-290 Eisenhower Expressway (South). River West is an up-and-coming submarket that is attracting prominent tech companies.
RIVER WEST SUMMARY
A
Inventory (square feet)
C
Total
1,051,383
2,355,190
3,406,573 (25,399)
Year to Date Absorption (square feet)
B
0
(25,399)
Direct Vacancy Rate
1.0%
9.8%
7.1%
Total Vacancy Rate (Direct + Sublease)
1.8%
11.6%
8.6% Numbers in parantheses are negative
RIVER WEST SUBMARKET HISTORICAL DIRECT VACANCY 25% 20% 15%
5.9%
8.5%
9.9%
15.8%
22.2%
22.1%
18.3%
14.6%
11.4%
6.9%
7.4%
6.8%
7.0%
0%
9.8%
5%
11.6%
10%
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 YTD
FIRST QUARTER 2017 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
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ADDITIONAL INFORMATION GLOSSARY Absorption: The net change in occupied space over a given period of time. Unless otherwise noted, Net Absorption includes direct and sublease space.
Rental Rates: The annual costs of occupancy for a particular space quoted on a per square foot basis.
Asking Rent: The published rental rate for a space in a building, which may vary from the rent which is negotiated upon by the tenant and landlord.
Sales Price: The total dollar amount paid for a particular property at a particular point in time.
Central Business District: The designations of Central Business District (CBD) and Suburban refer to a particular geographic area within a metropolitan statistical area (MSA) describing the level of real estate development found there. The CBD is characterized by a high density, well organized core within the largest city of a given MSA.
SF: Abbreviation for Square Feet.
Class: A classification used to describe buildings, with Class A reflecting the highest quality and Class C reflecting the lowest.
Submarkets: Specific geographic boundaries that serve to delineate a core group of buildings that are competitive with each other and constitute a generally accepted primary competitive set, or peer group. Submarkets are building type specific (office, industrial, retail, etc.), with distinct boundaries dependent on different factors relevant to each building type. Submarkets are non-overlapping, contiguous geographic designations having a cumulative sum that matches the boundaries of the Market they are located within.
Direct Vacant Space: Space that is being offered for lease directly from the landlord or owner of a building, as opposed to space being offered in a building by another tenant (or broker of a tenant) trying to sublet a space that has already been leased. Initial Rate: The contracted starting rental rate for the third term of a lease. Inventory: The square footage of buildings that have received a certificate of occupancy and are able to be occupied by tenants. Calculated by adding the Rentable Building Area (RBA) of all properties in a market or submarket. Large Block: The amount of contiguous space available in a building in terms of square footage. Contiguous spaces over 50,000 square feet are considered large by MB Real Estate. Lease Comparable: Comparables are properties with characteristics that are similar in nature. Their signing lease rates and other contracted elements are aggregated to analyze contracted market conditions as opposed to asking market conditions. Market: Geographic boundaries that serve to delineate core areas that are competitive with each other and constitute a generally accepted primary competitive set of areas. Markets are building type specific and are non-overlapping contiguous geographic designations. Markets can be further subdivided into Submarkets. Net Rental Rate: A rental rate that excludes certain expenses that a tenant could incur in occupying office space. Such expenses are expected to be paid directly by the tenant and may include janitorial costs, electricity, utilities, taxes, insurance and other related costs. Preleased Space: The amount of space in a building that has been leased prior to its construction completion date, or certificate of occupancy date. Price/SF: Calculated by dividing the price of a building (either sales price or asking sales price) by the Rentable Building Area (RBA). Rentable Building Area (RBA): The total building square footage that can be occupied by or assigned to a tenant for the purpose of determining a tenant’s rental obligation. Generally, RBA includes a percentage of common areas including all hallways, main lobbies, bathrooms, and telephone closets.
CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
SECTION FOUR
Sublease Space: Space that has been leased by a tenant and is being offered for lease back to the market by the tenant with the lease obligation. Sublease space is sometimes referred to as sublet space.
Suburban: The Suburban and Central Business District (CBD) designations refer to a particular geographic area within a metropolitan statistical area (MSA). Suburban is defined as including all office inventory not located in the CBD. Tenant Improvement: Those changes to property to accommodate specific needs of a tenant. TIs include installation or relocation of interior walls or partitions, carpeting or other floor covering, shelves, windows, toilets, etc. The cost of these is negotiated in the lease. Total Vacant Space: Direct plus sublease vacant space. Under Construction: The status of a building that is in the process of being developed, assembled, built or constructed. A building is considered to be under construction after it has begun construction and until it receives a certificate of occupancy. Vacancy Rate: A measurement expressed as a percentage of the total amount of physically vacant space divided by the total amount of existing inventory. Under construction space generally is not included in vacancy calculations. Vacancy rate can be based on direct, sublease, or total vacant space. Vacant Space: Space that is not currently occupied by a tenant, regardless of any lease obligation that may be on the space. Vacant space could be space that is either available or not available. For example, sublease space that is currently being paid for by a tenant but not occupied by that tenant, would be considered vacant space. Likewise, space that has been leased but not yet occupied because of finish work being done, would also be considered vacant space. YTD: Abbreviation for Year-to-Date. Describes statistics that are cumulative from the beginning of a calendar year through whatever time period is being studied.
FIRST QUARTER 2017 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
20
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MB REAL ESTATE
ABOUT MB REAL ESTATE
At MB Real Estate, our corporate mission is to maximize the value of our clients’ real estate by creating timely and innovative solutions that meet their unique needs and objectives. We offer the highest level of real estate support with our team of committed, results-driven experts in asset and facilities management, leasing, tenant representation, development, project management, and investment services. Supported by dedicated accounting, marketing, human resources, and information technology teams, our unique full-service firm is an industry leader in local and national corporate real estate.
DEPARTMENT LEADERSHIP MB REAL ESTATE HEADQUARTERS 181 West Madison, Suite 4700 Chicago, Illinois 60602 phone: 312.726.1700 www.mbres.com
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COMPANY LEADERSHIP PETER E. RICKER Chairman & CEO
JOHN T. MURPHY Vice Chairman
PATRICIA ALUISI
Executive Vice President & Chief Administrative Officer/General Counsel
KRYSTA BAVLSIK
Executive Vice President & MBRE Healthcare
MARK A. BUTH
Executive Vice President & Managing Director of Leasing Services
ANDREW J. DAVIDSON
Executive Vice President & Managing Director of Corporate Services & Tenant Advisory
DAVID R. GRAFF
Executive Vice President of Project Services
SUZANNE HENDRICK
Senior Vice President & Director of Asset Management
KAROLINE EIGEL
Senior Vice President & Chief Marketing Officer
EILEEN FLYNN
Senior Vice President & Chief Financial Officer
KEVIN M. PURCELL
President, Leasing & Management Services
PETER J. WESTMEYER
Executive Vice President & Managing Director of Investment Services/ President & Managing Principal, MBRE Healthcare Group
FIRST QUARTER 2017 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
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