Given these developments and, as noted in prior FilmL.A. reports, the distinction between network, cable and digital is
2017
PILOT PRODUCTION REPORT
PHOTO: Ivan Ivanovich Dan / Shutterstock
6255 W. Sunset Blvd. 12th Floor Hollywood, CA 90028
CREDITS:
filmla.com
Graphic Design: Shane Hirschman
@FilmLA FilmLA FilmLAinc
Research Analysts: Adrian McDonald Corina Sandru
Photography: Shutterstock HBO FOX
TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION PILOTS BY OUTLET TOP PILOT PRODUCTION LOCATIONS DRAMA PILOTS COMEDY PILOTS THE MAINSTREAMING OF “STRAIGHT-TO-SERIES” PRODUCTION
THE ECONOMIC IMPORTANCE OF PILOTS THE CURRENT TELEVISION LANDSCAPE IN CALIFORNIA THE CURRENT DRAMA LANDSCAPE IN CALIFORNIA CONCLUSION
3 4 5 6 7 8 10 11 13 15
INTRODUCTION Each year, the major studios like Disney and Warner Bros. and new digital players like Netflix and Amazon engage the global film and television industry in a mad dash to produce potential new shows. The vehicle for launching these shows is called the television pilot, and the studios spend over $1 billion annually to produce them. Today, television pilots are filmed throughout North America and in other parts of the world. Los Angeles and California are major competitors within this lucrative business but in recent years other jurisdictions, most notably New York and the Canadian Province of British Columbia, have also captured sizeable shares of their own. Below these top competitors rests a second-tier of somewhat smaller players in Georgia and Ontario, Canada—home to Toronto. FilmL.A.’s official count shows that 173 broadcast, cable and digital pilots (109 Dramas, 64 Comedies) were produced during the 2016-17 development cycle, 28 projects fewer than the prior year (representing a 14 percent decline) and the first time in four years that fewer than 200 pilots were produced. One explanation for the decline is that the content surge in recent years has resulted in a larger number of ongoing series. As a result, there may be less demand for new pilots, as many outlets have full slates. Out of those 173 pilots, 68 projects (22 Dramas, 46 Comedies) were filmed in the Greater Los Angeles region. This represents a 14 percent drop from last year, when 79 pilot projects filmed here. It is also the lowest number of pilots produced annually in the region during the last eight years.
TOTAL PROJECT COUNT BY CYCLE 250
200
186 169
202
201
38
37
57
174
152
161
165
65
165
6
146 124
173
12
8
150
203
144
129
120
100
108
103
100
91
50 Straight to Series Pilots
7
-1
16
20 6
-1
15
20 5
-1
14
20 4
-1
13
20 3
-1
12
20 2
-1
11
20 1
-1
10
20 0
-1
09
20 9
-0
08
20 8
-0
07
20 7
-0
06
20 6
-0
05
20 5
-0
04
20
0
100
80 2
4
50
0
L.A.’S SHARE OF TOTAL PILOTS PRODUCED 100 100%
80% 80
82% 71%
60% 60
57%
61%
59% 51%
40% 40
52% 44%
45% 39%
39%
20% 20
0%
0
2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17
In terms of overall market share, L.A. captured 39 percent of all pilots in the current cycle, which is identical to the prior year. By way of comparison, the peak year for L.A. in terms of market share was in ‘06/’07, when the region captured 82 percent of all pilot production. In addition to pilots and straight-to-series orders, this year’s FilmL.A. report also examines the overall scripted television landscape both in California and jurisdictions across the world. With the exodus of the majority of big-budget feature films from California to locations with more generous subsidies, the majority of the production vacuum left behind has been filled with dozens of scripted television series (see FilmL.A. 2016 Feature Film Study). When it comes to scripted drama series, the budgets on many shows approach or exceed $100 million per season, an amount that rivals many large budget feature films. FilmL.A. estimates a total of 426 live-action scripted series (including half hour and one hour shows) will be produced by U.S. studios for the 2017-18 season. California is home to roughly 173 of these scripted series, which is more than the state’s top five competitors combined.
3
PILOTS BY OUTLET Over the last several years, non-traditional programming available from online services like Amazon, Netflix and Hulu has begun altering not just the landscape for pilots, but the very concept of broadcast television in terms of how they acquire content, the manner in which they deliver it and how viewers consume it. From 2011-2016, the share of pilot activity that digital networks account for went from less than one percent to 19 percent—almost a fifth of all pilot production. During the 2016-17 cycle, the digital’s share of pilot production dipped slightly to 18 percent (32 count). Leading the digital networks was Netflix, with 14 pilots followed by Amazon (7 pilots), DirectTV (5 pilots), Hulu (4 pilots) and CBS All Access (2 pilots). The primary reason for the slight dip in digital activity were significant reductions in pilot orders from Amazon and Hulu, which produced half as many pilots in 2016-17 as the prior cycle. The other factor stunting growth in digital is that the emergence of new digital players has slowed recently, with CBS All Access as the only significant new entry into the field. Given that CBS is already an established broadcast network, it’s debatable whether CBS All Access is truly a new digital player or just an online outlet where the broadcast series that air on CBS are available to view along with the two original series created for the digital channel—at a price. In recent years, premium cable network channels like HBO and Showtime have also followed the online only option that CBS is using. Given these developments and, as noted in prior FilmL.A. reports, the distinction between network, cable and digital is growing increasingly irrelevant. Due to strong interest in the amount of pilot production by specific distribution type, this year’s Pilot Production Report includes a more precise breakout of how many pilots are being produced for each type of programming outlet, including the number of pilots produced for premium cable channels like HBO and Showtime.
DIGITAL NETWORK SHARE OF PILOT ACTIVITY 20
19%
18%
PILOT COUNT, BY PROGRAMMING OUTLET TYPE
15 20
13%
100
19%
13%
5 10
93
18%
10 15
77
80
5%
4% .6%
4%
2014-15
2015-16
60
54
.6%
DIGITAL VS.2012-13 NETWORK & CABLE PILOTS 2011-12 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17
200
151 178
100 150 50
141 192
176
2011-12
2011-12
38
8
11
2012-13
2013-14
8
11
2012-13
2013-14
26 2014-15
26 2014-15
38
32
2015-16
2016-17
38
32
2015-16
2016-17
100%
97%
80
163
60 20
1
0
40
141
1
0
100 32
151
100
50
52
Network / Cable 176 163
16
40
11 2016-17
150
178
192 Digital
2015-16
250
2016-17
0
2015-16
200
L.A.’s S
2016-17
5%
2016-17
250
2013-14
2015-16
2012-13
2016-17
2011-12
2015-16
0 5
0 Digital
Network
Premium Cable Digital
Cable
Premium Cable
Cable
Network
20 0
2006-7
2007
Top Pilot Locations
4
L.A.’s Share o
15 10
60
5 0
TOP PILOT PRODUCTION LOCATIONS 40 During the 2016-17 development cycle, 68 television pilots were filmed on Los Angeles streets and stages. However, 105 other pilots — compared to 122 last year — were produced outside the region in competing jurisdictions. The availability of financial production incentives and production infrastructure are key factors influencing where pilot producers choose to film. As in prior years, some form of film production incentive was available in every one of the non-California locations used during the 2016-17 development cycle.
20
After L.A., the top competitors for pilot production in 2016-17 were New York (24 pilots), British Columbia (21 pilots), Georgia (12 pilots) and Ontario (9 pilots). Also of note was activity in New Mexico, which hosted six pilots in 2016-17. By comparison, the state hosted four pilots in the prior cycle. No other location hosted more than five pilots in the 2015-16 cycle.
0 Network
Digital
Top Pilot Locations TOP PILOT LOCATIONS
200
8
150 5 7 7
100
17 8
2
6 5
5 6 9
2 2
20
19 15
10
2
12
35 17
3 3 8 9
4 2
3 12
9
15
25
28
16
25
6 5 10
12
24 New Mexico
21 50
87
92
96
90
91
Louisiana Ontario
79
Georgia
68
New York British Columbia
0
California
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
Despite generous subsidies in competing states and Canada (which also benefits from a favorable exchange rate), with the exception of Louisiana, all of California’s top competitors also saw a decline in the number of pilots produced during the 2016-17 development cycle.
New Mexico Louisiana Toronto Atlanta
Top Locations for Drama Pilots
100
10
80 5
New York Vancouver Los Angeles
11
12 60
8 4
40
15
6 4
20
7
2
8
8
5
7 2
16 8
6
24
12 15
5
17 17
19
21
12
20 23 22 21 19 21 25 0
PHOTO: Justin M. Lubin / HBO® 5 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2
100% 40
L.A.’s Share of Total Comedy Pilots Produced 100
100%
DRAMA80PILOTS
97%
20
82%
83%
82%
76%
77%
2014-15
72%
69%
L.A. SHARE OF TOTAL DRAMA PILOTS PRODUCED
8080% 3 8 7070% 12 9 15 6060% 9 5050% 28 25 4040% 16 25 3030% 2020% 1010% 91 079 0%
82%
91%
In 2016-17, the Los Angeles region captured 20 percent (22 count) of all drama pilots for the second straight year. While the region’s competitive situation did not worsen, 40 L.A.’s pilot production share was still down 68 percent from its peak in ’06/’07, when L.A.’s drama share was a commanding 63 percent. Much like feature films, pilot 0 projects are often produced in jurisdictions where tax incentives are available. The 20 Greater Los Angeles region’s considerable loss of pilot production share is directly Digitalas discussed Premium Cable tied to incentive-fueled competition. OnNetwork the flip side, later in Cable this report, the improved 0California Film & Television Tax Credit Program 2.0 has helped a record 2006-7 keep 2007-8 2008-9 within 2009-10 the 2010-11 number of drama series production state.2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15
Cable
L.A.’s Share of Total Drama Pilots Produced
80 70 63% 60 12 50% 24 50 38% 38% 29% 25% 21 40 22% 20% 20% 19% 17% 30 68 20 In 2016-17, five international locations (California, New York, British Columbia, 10 Ontario, Georgia) accounted for 68 percent of all drama pilots produced during the cycle; during the prior cycle, these same locations accounted for 70 percent of 2015-16drama 2016-17 0 pilots. The most notable drop among these five locations was Vancouver,
40 20 0
2015-16
2006-7
6 5 10
2006-7
2007-8
2008-9
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
TOP LOCATIONS 30 FOR DRAMA PILOTS
1
30%
31%
2014-15
2015-16
63% 50% 38%
38% 29%
2016-17
2006-7
2007-8
2008-9
25%
10
10 5
2 0
2011-12
60
8 4
40
6 4
20
7
2
12
2012-13
2
15
16
8
8
6
24
12 15
2013-14
8
5
7
11
5
17 17
2014-15
19
2016-17
11 18
21
12
2011-12
2
While not one of the top five locations for drama pilots, it’s worth noting that Louisiana showed signs of life during the recent cycle, with four drama pilots. By comparison, 40 Louisiana had only one drama pilot in the prior cycle. Two years ago, just before the Louisiana legislature significantly scaled back the state’s incentive program, the state 30 hosted a record eight drama pilots. With stability and a degree of certainty restored to Louisiana’s incentive program during the recent legislative session, it’s possible that the state will get back on track to becoming 20 a regional hub for television production.
46% 39% 30%
31%
15 Ontario
10
Atlanta
20 23 22 21 19 21 25 0
8
2015-16
2010-11
50
20
80
2009-10
Los Angeles’ Share of Pilot Spen
30%
29%
100
6
2009-10
L.A.’s Share of Total Dra
39% Top Locations for Drama Pilots
-17
2008-9
Los Angeles’ Share of Pilot Spending
8
5
2007-8
2016-17
4 2
50 British Columbia, which saw the number of drama pilots drop from 21 to 15, a decline of 29 percent. While Vancouver surpassed New York as the number two location for drama pilots46% last year, the Empire State reclaimed second place in 40 2016-17 with 18 drama pilots.
8
92%
80 60
92%
60
Premium Cable
97%
22
New York British Columbia Los Angeles
2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17
Toronto
0
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-
COMEDY PILOTS The number of comedy pilots produced in L.A. was 46 in 2016-17 compared to 54 in the previous cycle, a 15 percent decline. Though the overall comedy pilot count decreased, L.A.’s share of total comedy pilots produced actually increased to 72 percent. While this is far from 2006-07, when L.A.’s share of comedy pilots was an unchallenged 100 percent, it is a welcome improvement over last year, which marked the first time L.A.’s comedy share fell below 70 percent.
L.A.’s Share of Total Comedy Pilots Produced
L.A. SHARE OF TOTAL COMEDY PILOTS PRODUCED 100% 100
100%
97%
92%
80 80%
91%
82%
83%
82%
60 60%
76%
77%
2013-14
2014-15
72%
69%
40 40% 20 20% 0 0%
Cable
80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
2006-7
2007-8
2008-9
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2015-16
2016-17
L.A.’s status as the premier pilot production center continues to hinge on industry willingness to produce comedy projects in Los Angeles. Until recently, generous film incentives in other locations have not been as successful at siphoning comedy production from L.A.
L.A.’s Share of Total Drama Pilots Produced
Multi-camera, stage-bound comedies, which L.A. has been able to retain in great numbers, cost up to $1.5 million to produce per episode. In 2016-17, there were at least 23 multicamera pilots produced. By comparison, in 2015-16, there were at least 31 multi-camera pilots produced. Creative reasons, as opposed to economic reasons, presently keep these productions in Los Angeles.
63%
50% Single-camera comedies that regularly shoot on-location cost more to make at $2-$4 million per episode. In 2016-17, there were at least 42 single-camera pilots produced. By 38% comparison, in 2015-16, there38% were at least 48 single-camera pilots produced.
29%
2006-7
2007-8
2008-9
2009-10
25%
22%
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
17%
19%
20%
20%
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
Los Angeles’ Share of Pilot Spending
50
46% 40
39% 30
30%
31%
29%
30%
20
10
7
38
30
31
30
27 24
20
20
19
29
27
25
26
26 26
25 22
19
THE MAINSTREAMING OF “STRAIGHT-TO-SERIES” PRODUCTION 0
2008-09 2009-10 As the initial episode of a proposed series, many pilots are made, but only a few will ever be shown to viewers. Before many pilots can be green-lighted for series, it must first be deemed marketable to television advertisers and foreign distributors.
2010-11
For decades, broadcast networks have courted advertisers in an expensive and seasonally-driven “upfronts” process. Every year in late May, advertisers preview the shows that will go on to be aired on networks in the fall or early the following year tobroadcast Orders asSeries mid-season replacements. Cable and digital networks also screen a variety of scripted content. Unlike network pilots, cableComedy pilots are Digital produced year-round and have increased in number to contribute mightily to development cycle yields. New cable and digital series debut throughout theComedy year. Cable Unlike broadcast and 7 cable networks, the top two digital network players (Amazon and Netflix)Network are not beholden to Comedy advertisers or the “upfronts” process.
5
6 which pilots receive full series orders Amazon selects based in large part on the number of times a show is streamed and the percentage of viewers who finish the pilot. Unlike network television, there are no commercial interruptions on Amazon 8 and advertiser influence is effectively 5 taken out of the equation. 4
In contrast to Amazon, the original programming on Netflix has all been straight-to-series orders. Rather 3 than 1release episodes on a weekly basis like traditional 2 1 1 1 1 network or cable broadcasts, Netflix makes all episodes 011-12 2012-13 2013-14available 2014-15 at 2015-16 2016-17 one time, which rewards viewers who enjoy “binging” on new content and also takes advertisers out of the equation. The last four years have seen unprecedented growth in the number of shows ordered straight-to-series. In 201617, a total of 65 network, cable and digital shows were ordered straight-to-series. By comparison, a total of 57 shows were ordered straight-to-series in the prior cycle.
2011-12
2013-14
1
6
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
80 70
Cable 60 50
22
27
Network
40 2
30
23
20
24 29
19 2
10
7 0
12
1
6
8 2
13
11
6
9
2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 Digital Cable Network
500
400 100
38%
35 30
80
19%
18%
10
4% 2010-11
5%
6%
2011-12
2012-13
124
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
15
198
The practice of ordering so many shows straightto-series is remarkable considering that just five years ago, the trend had been well under 200 ten straight-to-series orders in the development cycle. Indeed, pilots ordered straight-to-series accounted for 38 percent of all pilots in 2016-17. 60 Six years ago, shows ordered straight-to-series accounted for just four percent of all pilots.
20 15
256
300
28%
25
7
154
100
67 8
2017-18
Digital
40
0
2012-13
10
1
) STRAIGHT-TO-SERIES DRAMA &&COMEDY Straight to SeriesORDER Order ((Drama Comedy)
SHARE OF TOTAL PILOTS ORDERED STRAIGHT TO SERIES
5
24
15
10
edy Straight
28 28
25
40 0
2010-11
87 2011-12
2
Ca Looking at the trends for both categories individually reveals other patterns. When it comes to drama, cable and digital networks have been more aggressive 80 than the traditional networks in each of the last seven cycles. In the last three cycles, the number of dramas ordered straight-to-series for cable and digital outpaced network orders by a margin of almost 5-1.
Vs. Cable
62
60
Digital Dramas
40
45
Cable Dramas 40 38
Network Dramas
2
29 25
24
1
6
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
5
2
2011-12
2012-13
1
0
2010-11
7
1
6
10
1
20 21
19
10 2013-14
15
10
2
10
Digital
9
5
8
31
30
20
18
28 28
22
30
7
18
20
2
20
16
30
26 26
5
50
53 48
25
57
60
50
0
2008-09
2009-10
201
Cable Network
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18 When it comes to comedy, digital and cable networks placed a higher priority on ordering shows straight-to-series during the past cycle. In the last three cycles, digital network orders for comedies straight-to-series have steadily increased whereas cable network orders for straight-to-series comedies doubled from four Based Dramas pilots to eight California in 2016-17.
Comedy Straight to Series COMEDY STRAIGHT-TO-SERIES ORDERSOrders 57
2008-09
20
43
2009-10
Drama & Comedy)
45
15
Cable
22
Network
10
10
0
24 29
6
20
30
5
5
Network Comedy
50
30
40
30
32
2017-18
60
22
30
2016-17
7
11
31
2015-16
27
12
37
2014-15
Cable Comedy
12
33
2013-14
70
11
35
2012-13
Digital Comedy
10
41
2011-12
80
2
2010-11
Digital
40
5
50
60
70
80
30
8 4
20 Digital
3
9
6
70
Drama Straight to Series Orders DRAMA STRAIGHT-TO-SERIES ORDERS
0
11
1
1
1
1 1
2
Cable
1
10
Network
2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17
9
4-15 2015-16 2016-17
0 9
82%
83%
82%
76%
60 40
69%
72%
THE ECONOMIC IMPORTANCE OF PILOTS
20 0
77%
Pilot production is worthy of study because the activity creates significant economic benefits for the hosting region. The average one-hour drama pilot can directly employ 150-750+ people for the duration of the project, which typically spans 10-20 days. Each year, FilmL.A. Research tracks both publicly available pilot production budgets (via
2006-7 2007-8 2008-9 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 transparency reports in states like California, New York, Louisiana, Pennsylvania and others) and
2016-17
reported pilot budgets (via news outlets or directly from studios and/or filmmakers). Typical pilot production costs, having risen over the years, now average about $3 million (for comedy pilots) and $6 million to $9 million (for drama pilots). Presentations, which are sometimes made in lieu of pilots, cost up to 40 percent less to produce than full-length pilots.
L.A.’s Share of Total Drama Pilots Produced
7
A partial sample of pilot budgets from other states in recent years show costs for drama pilots range from $5 million to a staggering $29.6 million, which was set by HBO’s two-hour pilot for Vinyl. For half-hour comedies, costs ranged from $2.6 million to $4.5 million.
SHOW Madam Secretary State of Affairs
50%
38%Vinyl
Billions
BUDGET
HIRES
INCENTIVE AMOUNT
LENGTH
CBS
New York
$6,000,000
820
$1,500,000
1 hour
NBC
New York
$10,100,000
1,038
$2,500,000
1 hour
New York
$2,600,000
474
$597,000
½ hour
Warner Bros.
New York
$8,400,000
1,132
$2,000,000
1 hour
HBO
New York
$29,600,000
2,479
$7,600,000
2 hour
Showtime
New York
$10,800,000
1,447
$2,700,000
1 hour
$1,000,000
½ hour
38%
29%
25%
Sharing
2007-8
LOCATION
Amazon
Mozart in the Jungle Blindspot
STUDIO
NBC
New York
$4,500,000
392
$14,200,000
19%
20%
$3,700,000
Pennsylvania
$4,400,000
Louisiana
$7,200,000
22% New York
The Deuce
HBO
Crashing
HBO
New York
Downward Dog
ABC
Claws
TNT
2008-9
2009-10
One Mississippi
2010-11
Seal Team Hoke
2011-12
Amazon
2012-13
Louisiana
17% 2013-14
2014-15
$2,600,000
1,625
20%
$3,700,000
1 hour
716
$935,000
½ hour
NA
$1,100,000
½ hour
175
$2,200,000 (est)
1 hour
2015-16 100
2016-17
$540,000
½ hour
CBS
Louisiana
$9,000,000
375
$3,000,000 (est)
1 hour
FX
Florida
$4,900,000
311
$921,000
1 hour
Angeles’ SHARE Share of OF PilotPILOT Spending LOSLos ANGELES PRODUCTION SPENDING
50
46% 40
39% 30
30%
31%
29%
30%
20
10
0 10
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
FilmL.A. estimates that approximately $303 million was spent on television pilot production in Los Angeles during the 2016-17 development cycle. While the region had 11 fewer pilots filmed in 2016-17 compared to the prior year, the cost to produce pilots continues to rise. The average half-hour pilot now costs $3 million. As a result, the $303 million spent in Los Angeles in 2016-17 was $6 million higher than the estimated $297 million spent in the city during the prior cycle. The $303 million spent in L.A. by pilots in 2016-17 represents 30 percent of the total amount spent by pilot producers in all locations. By comparison, L.A. captured 29 percent of pilot spending in the prior cycle.
0-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
1
1
6
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
0
1
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
California Based Dramas
THE CURRENT TELEVISION LANDSCAPE IN CALIFORNIA 57
2008-09 43
2009-10
2
Straight to Series Order (Drama Comedy) For&the last several years, major trade publications and network and cable television executives 45
2010-11
10
have been discussing the spectacular growth of scripted television series. In 2014, Variety’s 11 41 Cynthia Littleton noted there had been2011-12 a “1,000% spike since 1999 in the number of scripted Digital 12 35 series produced for just pay and basic2012-13 cable.” At the time, Littleton reported on growing concerns within the industry of a content bubble. The growth, however, 12 More 33 continued. 2013-14 recently, FX Network’s chief John Landgraf made headlines with a widely37 circulated11graph Cable 2014-15 showing the growth of scripted series from 2009-2016, using 2002 as a historical benchmark. 31 scripted series22 2015-16 In December 2016, Landgraf’s updated chart estimated there were 455 on 30 30 broadcast, cable and digital networks. Network 2016-17
27 32 2017-18 22 To extend this analysis and analyze California series production specifically, FilmL.A. had to 10
0 FilmL.A. looked 20 at seven 30 years40of current 50 and 60 duplicate a portion of FX Research’s approach. historical data to tabulate its own count of scripted television series produced for broadcast, cable and digital networks. In keeping with our established practice, and unlike FX Research, our series sample excludes animated shows. Also, FilmL.A. only includes series produced by U.S.-based studios and production companies. We also include children’s programs.
2
23
30
12
70
80
24 29
From 2010-11 to 2016-17, the number of scripted live-action series grew from 198 to 426, an increase of 115 percent. While the number of series produced for broadcast networks and 2 cable (including basic & premium) has been relatively steady in the last three years, digital 13 8 11 networks9have seen dramatic increases. From 2015-16 to 2016-17, the number of digital 7 6 6 series increased 68 percent; since 2010-11, the total number of digital series has increased a 1 2 staggering 1,271 percent. 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17
19
ESTIMATED COUNT OF LIVE-ACTION SCRIPTED SERIES 500
426
400
329 256
300
200
7
124
154
100
67 2010-11
21
87 2011-12
36
368
96
57
17 15
198
0
289
357
178
94 2012-13
200
208
198
218
108
113
113
112
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
As a database of the scripted series underlying the FX Research chart was unavailable, one of the main benefits from the FilmL.A. Research scripted series count was the creation of a database of the primary filming locations for each series included in the chart above.
TOTAL Digital Cable Network
11
40 2
5
5
0
30
8
5
4
23
20
12
24 29
19
A total of seven (California, New York, British Columbia, Georgia, Ontario, the UK and Illinois) 1 3 locations 2 2 10 for 80 percent of all In all, these seven locations accounted 1 1 1 hosted 1 ten or more 1series in 2016-17. 8 11 by U.S.2016-17 studios. With a total of 173 scripted series produced in the 7 primarily 2010-11 2011-12scripted 2012-13 series 2013-14produced 2014-15 2015-16 9 6 6 state, California far outpaced its rivals, hosting as many scripted series as the six other top locations 1 2 0 combined. With a 15 percent share (52 series count), New York was California’s2010-11 closest 2011-12 rival, but2012-13 far 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 short of the Golden State’s 50 percent.
13
ESTIMATED SCRIPTED SERIES COUNT & SHARE IN LOCATIONS WITH 10+ SHOWS
6%
500
3% 10
SERIES
21 SERIES
400
8%
29 SERIES
256
300
8%
29 SERIES
198
50%
10%
200
124
173 SERIES
35 SERIES
7
100 California
15% 52 SERIES
67
New York British Columbia Georgia
0
2010-11
Ontario UK Illinois
While the number of scripted series has seen remarkable growth, the number of actual episodes produced increased only slightly. According to The Hollywood Reporter, the number of scripted series “grew almost 50 percent” from 2011-2015, the number of episodes grew by just six percent, from 4,806 episodes to 5,091, over the same period. Primetime series produced for broadcast networks like ABC and FOX traditionally have seasons of 2024 episodes. In recent years however, many new scripted series produced for the broadcast networks have seen episode orders fall under 20. For example, NBC©’s This is Us aired 18 episodes for its inaugural season and Fox’s Lucifer aired 18 episodes during its second season, which wrapped early 2017. This trend was also noted by the Writers Guild of America (WGA), which found the number of series with 2-13 episodes increased from 165 shows in 2014 to 205 shows in 2015, whereas the number of series with 14 or more episodes actually declined from 97 shows in 2014 to 96 in 2015.
PHOTO: Brendan Meadows / FOX©
12
154
PHOTO: Kathy Hutchins / Shutterstock.com
87
2011-
THE CURRENT DRAMA LANDSCAPE IN CALIFORNIA Drama Straight to Series Orders
The good news for California is that the number of one-hour scripted drama series shooting in the state stands at 62. Most of the California dramas are shows on cable; 11 of the 28 cable series are shows produced for premium cable channels (HBO, Showtime, Epix & Starz). Digital dramas now account 50 for 16 percent of all California-based drama series (Amazon 3, Netflix 3, Hulu 4).
California Dramas: Network Vs. Cable
CALIFORNIA DRAMAS: NETWORK, CABLE & DIGITAL
62
0
80
40
16
70 60
57
55
50
52
27
6
2017-18
7 6
Digital
1
14-15
20
0
10
2008-09
8
Cable
4
62009-10
1 Network 2015-16 2016-17
18 26
26 26
25
2010-11 5
2
20
18
28 28
25
24
22
2
10
TOTAL
19
Digital 10
7
1
30
2011-12
10
2012-13
1
9 2014-15
5
2013-14
2
1
8 2015-16
6
0
2016-17
2010-11
10
5
2
2011-12
2012-13
1
Network
7
1
6
Cable
2013-
2017-18
0 It wasn’t that long ago that FilmL.A. reported that most new television series were being made out of 2010-11 2011-12 just 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15dramas 2015-16 2016-17 state. In 2012, for example, two of the 22 new network were based in California. California can credit the reversal of fortune in large part to the California Film & Television Tax Credit Program, including the expansion of the program that took effect in mid-2015. Under the new version of the program, dubbed 2.0, eligibility has been expanded to drama series regardless of where it is broadcast and now includes network, premium cable and digital channels. Under the old program, only basic cable series and network shows that were relocating to California were eligible for the incentive. Under the 2008-09 new program, California will be hosting 30 incentivized dramas, including eight network series, 13 basic 2009-10 Straight topremium Seriescable Order (Drama & Comedy) cable series, three digital series and six series. 2010-11 80 2011-12 Digital CALIFORNIA Digital Comedy BASED DRAMAS 2012-13 70 2013-14 57 2008-09 Cable Cable Comedy 2014-15 60 43 2 2015-16 2009-10
California Ba
California Based Dramas
Network Comedy 2010-11
45
50
10
1122
41
2011-12
40
2012-13 2013-14
35
2014-15
37
20
2016-17
10
2017-18
0
7
0
10
23
1212
1
30
6
8
32 2
30
32
2017-18 0
10
20
30
13
22
11
6
30
9 30
2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17
20
Network
31 30
2016-17
24 29
11
19
31 2
27
35 33
12
2
33
30
2015-16 2
29
2
15
1
eries Orders
1
27
25
19
10
5
24
20 10
17
31
30
20 21
18
20
40
Network Dramas
48
745
47
45
38
24
62
53
2
40
28 28
50
Cable Dramas 60
30
30
20
Digital Dramas Drama Straight t
40
50
60
Incentivized Non-incentivized
70
80
500 13
The impact these incentivized drama series (and Veep and Ballers, two big-budget HBO half-hour series) will have in California is significant: a direct production spend of $1.72 billion within the upcoming season. Assuming an average per-season budget of $50 million for the 33 non-incentivized dramas shooting in the state, we estimate the total annual direct production spend for California-based television dramas at $3.2 billion.
PROJECT TITLE
TOTAL CA SPEND
CAST
CREW
EXTRAS
PROJECT TYPE
13 Reasons Why 2 American Crime Story: Katrina
$80,966,000
80
175
7,150
Digital
$69,542,000
247
250
5,055
Cable
American Crime Story: Versace
$56,903,000
258
250
5,040
Cable
American Horror Story 7
$72,375,000
336
125
3,328
Cable
Animal Kingdom 2
$46,000,000
152
170
2,796
Cable
Ballers - S3
$56,330,000
135
209
5,790
Premium Cable
Code Black 3
$52,777,000
249
197
10,439
Network
Crazy Ex Girlfriend Season 3
$41,745,000
8
260
25
Network
Famous in Love 1
$24,468,000
90
150
2,718
Cable
Heathers 1
$23,122,000
10
120
75
Cable
Here, Now 1
$52,973,000
142
205
4,878
Premium Cable
Hit the Floor 4
$36,249,000
28
115
6,100
Cable
I'm Dying Up Here 1
$47,368,000
172
120
3,582
Premium Cable
Law & Order: True Crime - Menendez
$24,605,000
19
250
3,500
Network
Legion 2
$60,904,000
35
125
2,408
Cable
Lucifer 3
$92,094,000
156
120
7,216
Network
Major Crimes 6
$76,187,000
349
107
6,622
Cable
Messiah
$58,658,000
162
224
3,580
Digital
Rebel 1
$5,429,000
35
150
1,500
Cable
Rebel Pilot
$4,371,000
27
100
500
Cable
S.W.A.T. 1
$60,290,000
297
220
4,992
Network
S.W.A.T. Pilot
$11,702,000
33
212
825
Network
Sharp Objects
$48,787,000
120
159
2,985
Premium Cable
Shooter 2
$45,265,000
62
175
4,927
Cable
Snowfall 1
$38,139,000
263
122
2,290
Cable
Stitchers 3
$45,926,000
160
171
5,880
Cable
The Affair 4
$50,181,000
124
130
3,190
Premium Cable
The OA 2
$45,163,000
77
350
2,664
Digital
The Orville
$56,186,000
236
270
4,512
Network
This Is Us 2
$73,012,000
377
125
4,176
Network
Timeless 2
$56,676,000
247
220
3,000
Network
Twin Peaks
$41,162,000
153
140
1,122
Premium Cable
Veep 7
$65,963,000
462
195
3,960
Premium Cable
Westworld 2
$107,091,000
80
185
6,866
Premium Cable
TOTAL
$1,728,609,000
5,430
6,096
133,691
This amount does not include the economic impact of the estimated 88 (57 cable & digital, 33 network) scripted half-hour series (not including Ballers and Veep) that are also based in Southern California. The average cost to produce each episode on these half-hour shows averages $2 to $3 million on most series. With an average seasonal episode count of 15 episodes per series (broadcast average 21 episodes, cable & digital average 11 episodes), FilmL.A. estimates these 88 series will generate an additional $3.3 billion in direct spending in the upcoming season. All told, we estimate the combined direct spend of the scripted one-hour and half-hour series based in California at $6.5 billion in 2016-17. This amount does not include spending by the numerous animated series produced in the state or spending by game shows, talk shows, talent shows and dozens of reality shows that are not the focus of this report, but also call California home.
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CONCLUSION As a decade of FilmL.A. Research reports on television pilots reveals, the television landscape and the production trends that continuously send the industry in new directions is anything but static. Whether it is the growth of pilots produced each year, the explosion of straight-to-series orders, the emergence of digital networks or a breathtaking increase in the number of scripted series, the current production landscape is incredibly dynamic. Equally dynamic is the shifting landscape of top production centers and the impact that changing production incentives can and do have. While the decline in L.A.’s pilot count is concerning, the good news is that there was an increase in both the share of total comedy pilots produced in the region and share of total pilot spending. With a solid California Film & Television Tax Credit Program in place, the state’s standing as the world’s top television production center is assured for the foreseeable future. Finally, in recent years, FilmL.A. Research’s pilot reports have begun to shift to more comprehensive focus on the overall television production landscape, specifically in terms of scripted content. Moving forward, FilmL.A. Research’s pilot reports may become just one part of a more comprehensive study that looks at the entire television landscape rather than one narrow facet of it.
METHODOLOGY For more than a decade, FilmL.A. has conducted ongoing research to keep track of new television pilots. Our counts include all pilot projects of which FilmL.A. is made aware through primary (direct contact with studios, producers, film commissions) and secondary research (industry trade publications, online subscription databases), and for which we can determine a primary production location. FilmL.A. uses the term “television pilot” (or simply, “pilot”) throughout this study to refer to all original scripted pilot and shorter-length presentations, as well as the first episode of any new episodic show ordered “straight-to-series.” The last of these is important, as networks are increasingly choosing to skip pilot and presentation production and immediately order multiple episodes of promising new shows. Rather than discount new production occurring anywhere within the development cycle, FilmL.A. includes these as “hidden pilots” in all of its counts. Indeed, this is often the only way to capture new cable and digital series starts. Pilot counts within a development cycle include both stage-based and location-based projects made in any location, of any running duration, intended for primetime debut on broadcast networks, cable networks, or online streaming services serving U.S. audiences. As consumers enjoy content across a range of devices and screens, the television production industry has begun to question its assumptions about how episodic content is best vetted, sold and screened. As the working definition of “television pilot” expands, the changes in the television industry come into clearer focus.
SOURCES Annual Film Incentive Transparency Reports: California Florida New York Pennsylvania Online Databases: StudioSystem Development Leads IMDbPro Other: Louisiana Department of Economic Development CreativeBC Major news & media outlets Leah Medrano / California Film Comission
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