2bs forum summary

2BS FORUM SUMMARY MAY 11-13, 2017 H*

ISSN: 2337-0602 (online) 2337-0599(print)

Atlantic Council of Montenegro

TABLE OF CONTENTS

ATLANTIC COUNCIL OF MONTENEGRO...........................................................1 2BS (TO BE SECURE) FORUM.................................................................................2 INTRODUCTION..............................................................................................................3 ICEBREAKING PANEL.................................................................................................4 OFFICIAL OPENING.......................................................................................................7 PANEL I..............................................................................................................................10 PANEL II.............................................................................................................................13 PANEL III............................................................................................................................15 SIDE EVENTS..................................................................................................................18 PRESIDENTIAL DISCUSSION.................................................................................19 PANEL IV..........................................................................................................................22 PANEL V............................................................................................................................24 RECEPTIONS..................................................................................................................27 MEDIA COVERAGE.....................................................................................................29 FACTS AND FIGURES................................................................................................30

ATLANTIC COUNCIL OF MONTENEGRO The Atlantic Council of Montenegro was founded in 2006 and since then has been a preeminent institution devoted to promoting Euro-Atlantic values and international security. The Atlantic Council of Montenegro was admitted into membership of the Atlantic Treaty Association at the General Assembly held in Athens in 2006. Since we are facing a turning point in our history, the Atlantic Council provides an essential forum for navigating effective shifts in political and security-related influences. The Atlantic Council established 2BS Forum as a leading security forum in the region. The Atlantic Council promotes constructive leadership and engagement in international affairs based on the central role of the Atlantic community in meeting the international challenges of the 21st century. The Atlantic Council stimulates dialogue and discussion about critical international issues with a view to enriching public debate and promoting consensus on appropriate responses in Government, the corporate and non-profit sectors, and the media in Montenegro and among leaders in Europe and the USA. At the same time, important contributions by the Atlantic Council include identifying and shaping responses to major issues facing NATO and transatlantic relations as well as building consensus among political parties towards NATO and Euro-Atlantic integration. The Youth Atlantic Treaty Association (YATA) is definitely a very important pillar of the Atlantic Council, with its young members who participate in many activities in the country and abroad.

2BS FORUM

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2BS (TO BE SECURE) FORUM The 2BS (To Be Secure) Forum is an annual high-level politico-security forum which is the leading International Forum in SEE. 2BS Forum deals with issues of global, Euro-Atlantic security and security in SEE. The main characteristic of this Forum is the participation of numerous prominent academics and experts in the field of security policy, as well as senior officials from SEE and transatlantic area. The main organizer of the Forum is the Atlantic Council of Montenegro. Forum is organized under the auspices of the Government of Montenegro and in partnership with: NATO, U.S. Embassy in Podgorica and the Balkan Trust for Democracy. Under the title, “THE CHALLENGES OF CHANGING POLITICS AND SHIFTING ALLIANCES”, the seventh 2BS Forum addressed some of the most pressing issues of European and global security today, with a primary focus on defining and redefining US-NATO-Russia relations. Speakers at this year's Forum underlined that Montenegro’s accession into NATO represents an encouragement for other aspirants and that it is a confirmation of all the hard work and reforms that have taken place. In addition to that, they emphasized that entering NATO is not the end of the road and that Montenegro has to continue developing the rule of law, pursue reforms and strengthen security. In the dynamic and constructive discussions, the panelists addressed the issue of Russian influence, while trying to debate a solution for the issue of future Russian position in the region and concluded that the cooperation with Russia is necessary.

2BS Forum - Turning Words into Action!

ATLANTIC COUNCIL OF MONTENEGRO

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INTRODUCTION The Atlantic Council of Montenegro, under the auspices of the Government of Montenegro and with the support of NATO, US Embassy in Montenegro and Balkan Trust for Democracy (BTD), organized the seventh 2BS Forum from May 11-13, 2017. Under the title “THE CHALLENGES OF CHANGING POLITICS AND SHIFTING ALLIANCES”, the seventh 2BS (To Be Secure) Forum addressed some of the major issues of international relations and security. Its goal was to encourage vivid discussion regarding the most important dilemmas in the field of international security. The Forum has once again, managed to justify high standards set in the previous years and remained the platform for political, expert, critical and constructive discussion. Once more, we succeeded in our efforts to fulfill one of the main goals of 2BS Forum - to encourage significant discussion with a wide range of opinions from the key security and foreign policy figures regarding the most important issues in the field of international security, and many other topics that are crucial for Europe and the world at large. Forum gathered in one place a number of high officials from the country and abroad, thus creating possibilities for stronger cooperation and connections among these countries. This year’s Forum was especially important having in mind that it was held less than one month before Montenegro delivered the ratification document to the State Department and became the official NATO member on June 5th. 2BS Forum speakers addressed some of the most pressing issues of European and global security today with a primary focus on defining and redefining US-NATO-Russia relations. Taking that into account, additional attention was paid to how those global relations affect the region and thus Montenegro. Furthermore, dynamic discussions were held in regard to the political shifts, foreign policy and current key security issues which influence the shaping of international relations, as well as their impact on the future of both Europe and the rest of the world. The seventh 2BS Forum gathered more than 400 participants from the region, all over Europe and beyond, among others, three presidents, a number of ministers of defence and foreign affairs, NATO representatives, experts, US high representatives etc. 2BS FORUM

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ICEBREAKING PANEL: WESTERN BALKANS BETWEEN INTEGRATION AND FRAGMENTATION

On May 11th, the day before the official opening of the 2BS Forum, an icebreaking panel was held. Under the title „WESTERN BALKANS BETWEEN INTEGRATION AND FRAGMENTATION“, this panel was moderated by Dr. Filip Ejdus‚ Marie Curie Research Fellow, School of Sociology, Politics and International Studies (SPAIS). The former Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs of Montenegro, currently Director of SEE in PwC, Prof. Dr. Igor Lukšić held a keynote speech, while the panelists were H.E. Mr. Igor Crnadak, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Dr. Miloš Šolaja, Director, Center for International Relations in Banja Luka, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Dr. Sandro Knezović, Senior Research Associate, Institute for Development and International Relations from Croatia and Mr. Dragan Šormaz, Head of Delegation, National Assembly of Serbia to the Parliamentary Assembly of NATO. In his opening remarks, Prof. Dr. Lukšić stressed that there has to be very strong cooperation amongst the countries of the region and that the region needs a proactive presence of the EU. Referring to Montenegro officially becoming a NATO member state, he remarked that every ending is only a new beginning and that Montenegro is opening up a whole new stage of activities that should further contribute to stability and prosperity of the region. Prof. Dr. Lukšić concluded by saying that we are at a crossroads which will, if properly responded to, resolve the problem stated in the title of the topic. "We need more integration rather than fragmentation", Prof. Dr. Lukšić underlined.


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The panelists emphasized the necessity of regional cooperation, gave their contribution to the discussion on external actors influencing the region, but also pointed out the need to stay focused and continue with the EU Integration of the region. Commenting on breaking the deadlock in the region, Mr. Crnadak said that it is of greatest importance for the politicians to be more responsible and more accountable. Following up, he pointed out that continuing with the EU integration is of absolute importance for Bosnia and Herzegovina and that they expect to get a decision by Brussels on candidacy status by early 2018. In this region you can easily come from perfect relations to very problematic ones, and that’s why I think this should be very much in the focus. H.E. Mr. Igor Crnadak

We need more integration rather than fragmentation. That’s the way forward. Prof. Dr. Igor Lukšić When it comes to regional cooperation, while referring to the village of Sutorina dispute, Mr. Crnadak stressed the importance of staying focused on this matter and not taking these relations for granted. "In this region you can easily come from perfect relations to very problematic ones, and that’s why I think this should be very much in the focus.", he explained. Commenting on both of the major topics at once, Dr. Šolaja remarked that regional cooperation is also, more or less, initiated by foreign actors. "The Balkan is not in the focus of main

political attention and I think that we can try to show that it is a region of reconciliation, of cooperation and harmonization", Dr. Šolaja remarked. He emphasized the reemerging of Russia in the Western Balkans and expressed his surprise that the Western countries did not see that Russia is getting stronger here. Furthermore, he stated that there is strong witnessing about the region’s inability to find a way how to cooperate. When asked whether the region has an alternative to Euro Atlantic Integration, Dr. Šolaja answered affirmatively, but added that the more important question is which process will lead to the security and stability in the region. The Balkans is not in the focus of main political attention and I think that we can try to show that it is a region of reconciliation, of cooperation and harmonization. Dr. Miloš Šolaja

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Drawing attention to populism, Dr. Knezović argued that it does not come out of the blue and that it is a result of crisis. According to him, the rise of populism in the West is sending a wrong message to the region. He also laid emphasis on the necessity for the US to rediscover the Western

This region is the backyard of the EU, so let’s not forget the fact that it is actually the EU’s responsibility to revitalize its most important policy in the region, and this is the enlargement process. Dr. Sandro Knezović

Balkans region, regardless of existing problems at other pockets of the globe, and to start again supporting the consolidation processes within this region. In addition to that, he stressed the importance of the EU support in the region. "This region is the backyard of the EU, so let's not forget the fact that it is actually the EU's responsibility to revitalize its most important policy in the region, and this is the enlargement process", Dr. Knezović added. Mr. Šormaz pointed out that the military neutrality policy of Serbia is more and more understood and accepted by MPs and governments of the member states of NATO. He said that neither is Serbia asking to become a part of NATO, nor is NATO inviting it.

The USA is probably still the most influential actor in this region. Mr. Dragan Šormaz

Taking foreign actors into consideration, Mr. Šormaz remarked that the Balkans is a fertile soil for Russia’s actions, but pointed to the greatness of US influence as well. "The USA is probably still the most influential actor in this region", according to Mr. Šormaz.


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OFFICIAL OPENING The 7th To Be Secure (2BS) Forum was officially opened by Dr. Savo Kentera, the President of the Atlantic Council of Montenegro, who gave a speech, reflecting upon Montenegro's past and seeing a better future. Citing a prominent Montenegrin intellectual and politician, who compares Montenegro both to a sea foam and a snow dust and who says that Montenegro has never known why its love for freedom was a sin, Dr. Kentera stressed that, by joining NATO, Montenegro will start writing a new history, without tears, without the sin of freedom, while paving a pathway towards peace and tranquility. According to Dr. Kentera, NATO membership represents a historical crossroads for Montenegro, since the country is finally becoming a part of the West, sharing all the Western values. He added that Montenegro has earned its place in NATO. "Montenegrin NATO membership is no prize, but a thing earned by efforts and commitments over the years", Dr. Kentera pointed out. When it comes to Russian influence in Montenegro and the region, Dr. Kentera argued that he does We mustn't and have no understand Russian opposition, but that Russia right to forget the past, but must come to terms with the fact that Montenegro we must turn to the future is a NATO member state and that there is nothing and live with each other. that can be done against it. Commenting on the commitment to this region, he stated that neither the USA nor Europe have forgotten this region, but rather, they are still present and ready to contribute to its peace and stability. Dr. Kentera underlined the need for regional cooperation and remarked that the whole Western Balkan region must become a part of the collective defense system as soon as possible. Montenegrin NATO membership is no prize, but a thing earned by efforts and commitments over the years. 2BS FORUM

Dr. Kentera concluded by saying that the decisions on the future must not be made by pondering upon the past, nor should those decisions be left to someone else. "We mustn't and have no right to forget the past, but we must turn to the future and live with each other", Dr. Kentera emphasized. PAGE 07

At the official opening of the seventh To Be Secure (2BS Forum), Mr. Hoyt Brian Yee, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs from USA delivered a speech. Mr. Yee pointed out that there have been a number of game changing events and developments in the past year and added that in the Balkans, the most dramatic transformational development in the last year has been Montenegro's NATO accession. Furthermore, Mr. Yee noted that the 2BS Forum is an example of Montenegrin leadership and commitment to regional cooperation. "Ordinary citizens also need to engage, through civil society, free media and democratic elections.", Mr. Yee remarked. Speaking about NATO, Mr. Yee remarked that Montenegro's membership reaffirms NATO's open door policy and its commitment to the Western Balkans.

We have helped our Western Balkan partners and we will continue to help going forward.

Furthermore, in his opinion, this accession revealed the ongoing determination of Russia to hold the region back from its place in the Western family. According to Mr. Yee, Russia has stepped up its imagination to undermine progress in the Balkans towards NATO and EU wherever and however it can. On the other hand, speaking of the US, he said: "We have helped our Western Balkan partners and we will continue to help going forward". Mr. Yee stressed the need for regional cooperation in the Western Balkans. He Ordinary citizens remarked that there is a softer side of security, also need to engage, which is just as important. The world continues through civil society, to grow and countries compete for resources to free media and fuel that growth. This is why, Mr. Yee democratic elections. emphasized, the countries of the Western Balkans should work together to developmultiple routes and sources for reliable energy supply.


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The Prime Minister of Montenegro, H.E. Mr. Duško Marković, delivered a keynote speech at the official opening of the 2BS Forum 2017. In regards to Montenegrin NATO membership, the Prime Minister reminded that, same place last year, the Accession Protocol was expected to be signed. One year later, Prime Minister Marković is honored to announce that all member states have ratified this document and he stressed that this membership will bring benefits and privileges, but also responsibilities and commitment. "I believe that we can all agree that there is no better security framework on the global scene today than the one provided by the Alliance", Mr. Marrkovi9ć pointed out. He argued that, given the significance of NATO, no one should be surprised that Montenegro decided to link its key national interests to the Euro Atlantic family. I believe that we can all agree that there is no better security framework on the global scene today than the one provided by the Alliance.

Furthermore, Mr. Marković remarked that the EU is so much present in the Western Balkans. Taking Montenegro in consideration, he explained that there is no doubt in the EU that Montenegro will fulfill all the membership criteria within 5 years from now. Mr. Marković underlined that Montenegro is aware of its important role in the region and that it will make an effort to be the pillar of stability and promoter of democratic values the Alliance is based on. However, he sent word to

We must resolve our issues ourselves. We cannot put them on the table of partner countries and expect them to resolve our internal or neighborly disagreements and misunderstandings.

the countries of the Western Balkans, advising the region to carry their own burden and take responsibility for the situations in their countries. "We must resolve our issues ourselves. We cannot put them on the table of partner countries and expect them to resolve our internal or neighbourly disagreements and misunderstandings", Mr. Marković claimed.

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PANEL I: NATO ENLARGEMENT: ENHANCING EURO-ATLANTIC SECURITY OR INCITING CONFRONTATION?

The first panel, under the title “NATO ENLARGEMENT: ENHANCING EURO-ATLANTIC SECURITY OR INCITING CONFRONTATION?” was moderated by Dr. Valbona Zeneli, Director of Black Sea and Eurasia Program, George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies, while the panelists were H.E. Prof. Dr. Srđan Darmanović, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Montenegro, Mr. James Appathurai, Deputy Assistant Secretary General for Political Affairs and Security Policy and Dr. Michael Carpenter, Senior Director of the Penn Biden Center for Diplomacy and Global Engagement, USA. The discussion during the panel was directed towards some major political and security issues, while taking into consideration Montenegrin NATO membership, the relations between Russia and the West, as well as the relations in the Western Balkans. In his opening remarks, Prof. Dr. Darmanović stated that Montenegro hasn't surprised anyone by deciding to join NATO; this was evident from the moment Montenegro renewed its independence. ATLANTIC COUNCIL OF MONTENEGRO

This is the first time in the history that Montenegro is definitely and irrevocably going towards the West. H.E. Prof. Dr. Srđan Darmanović

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He also added that Montenegrin NATO membership is a game-changer and that after joining the Alliance we have to turn to EU Integration, as well as to solving the problems at home. "This is the first time in the history that Montenegro is definitely and irrevocably going towards the West", Prof. Dr. Darmanović added. According to him, by joining NATO, Montenegro will contribute to the stability of the Balkans. Speaking of Russian influence in this region, he remarked that Montenegro is not Russia's primary target. In his opinion, this is about a wider global approach or an attack against the international liberal order, the goal of which is to „disrupt NATO, divide the EU“. According to Mr. Appathurai, Montenegrin NATO membership is the confirmation of all the hard work and reforms that have taken place. "Montenegro's accession into NATO...is not a decision that was taken just in our HQ in Brussels, 28 parliaments have ratified this; this is a political commitment, a treaty commitment that is confirmed at the highest political level in all of our countries.", Mr. Appathurai stressed. With reference to Russian influence in Montenegro, he argued that it’s one thing to use propaganda and it’s another thing to use violence. Mr. Appathurai voiced that all of us need to have our eyes open and we need to take active steps to strengthen the resilience of our countries against cyber-attacks, political interference, propaganda, educate our populations about it. He concluded by saying that NATO has become a place where we discuss how to deal with cross cutting emergence of security challenges like terrorism, cyber threats which are growing for all of us, propaganda attacks against our states.

Montenegro’s accession into NATO...is not a decision that was taken just in our HQ in Brussels, 28 parliaments have ratified this; this is a political commitment, a treaty commitment that is confirmed at the highest political level in all of our countries. Mr. James Appathurai

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Shifting the discussion towards Montenegro and NATO, Dr. Carpenter said that it is important to use this occasion as a catapult for both Montenegro's EU Membership and for developing the institutions of the rule of law and democracy, which will be deepened and strengthened. "Entering NATO is not the end of the

Entering NATO is not the end of the road and Montenegro has to continue developing the rule of law, pursue reforms and strengthen security. Dr. Michael Carpenter

road and Montenegro has to continue developing the rule of law, pursue reforms and strengthen security", Dr. Carpenter remarked. In addition, he stressed that Russia's influence is an attempt of undermining the core foundation of democracy and that Russia is in decline, which is why it is acting out aggressively on the offence of the Western world. Russia is no longer just intervening its immediate periphery. It is expending towards the Western Balkans where it is very active and it is expending furthermore to Western Europe and US and this is much more than propaganda. In Dr. Carpenter's words, Russia’s goal is even to delegitimize international order and that is something that is unprecedented in terms of post-cold war era.


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PANEL II: US COMMITMENT TO EUROPEAN SECURITY – THE ERA OF UNCERTAINTY? The second panel under the title “US COMMITMENT TO EUROPEAN SECURITY – THE ERA OF UNCERTAINTY?” was moderated by Ms. Valerie Hopkins, Journalist, Balkan Investigative Reporting Network (BIRN) and the panelists were Dr. Fabrizio Luciolli, President, Atlantic Treaty Association and Italian Atlantic Committee, Prof. Dr. Milica Pejanović-Đurišić, Former Minister of Defence, Montenegro and Ms. Laura Cooper, Acting Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Russia, Ukraine, and Eurasia, USA. The panelists addressed the issue of US commitment to Europe, NATO and the Balkans, but also the challenges that the world is facing. Ms. Cooper claimed that US recognizes NATO as an essential element in meeting challenges such We are not looking for an as the challenge of Russia, the rise of alliance that looks good on ISIS and violent extremism, refuge paper. We want an alliance flows and migration challenges. "We that has the right capabilities. are not looking for an alliance that looks good on paper. We want an Ms. Laura Cooper alliance that has the right capabilities", she remarked. Commenting on the US point of view towards the accession of other Balkan countries and Russian influence on that region, Ms. Laura Cooper said that Montenegro’s NATO accession is a signal to others that the door to membership in NATO remains open to all and that the countries are free to choose their own future and select their own partners without outside interference.

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Commenting on military centralization, Dr. Fabrizio Lucciolli remarked that the problem of Europe is absence of political leadership and that the forthcoming elections will change the shape of political leadership in Europe. Dr. Lucciolli also talks about triangle approach model which regional countries should take. "We are free democracies, with freedom of speech, with different ideas, companies and competition, but we are all together", he underlined. There are three tracks that they need in the same time. They need security to attract investments and economic development, but at the same time they need respect of the rule of law. When asked about what NATO can do about cyber security, he emphasized that NATO needs to have offensive instruments on a daily basis. We are free democracies with freedom of speech, with different ideas, companies and competition, but we are all together. Dr. Fabrizio Luciolli

NATO is working very hard on that [cyber security], they got organizational change in the sense of intelligence so that the information sharing should be better and we have experienced very valuable support from these NATO structures for more than a year now. Prof. Dr. Milica Pejanović-Đurišić

Commenting on uncertainty which has been manifested in Montenegro and the region, Prof. Dr. Milica Pejanović-Đurišić said that their attention was focused towards the elections in the United States and the outcome of the elections. Furthermore, she pointed out that the commitment that they are taking is commitment to themselves. On the topic of cyber security, Prof. Dr. Pejanović-Đurišić remarked that NATO is the only alliance that could help member states when it comes to that issue. "NATO is working very hard on that, they got organizational change in the sense of intelligence so that the information sharing should be better and we have experienced very valuable support from these NATO structures for more than a year now", she added. ATLANTIC COUNCIL OF MONTENEGRO

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PANEL III: RUSSIAN INFLUENCE IN SEE REGAINING POWER

The third panel “RUSSIAN INFLUENCE IN SEE - REGAINING POWER?” was moderated by Mr. Timothy Judah, Journalist, The Economist. The panelists were H.E. Mrs. Marina Pendeš, Minister of Defense of Bosnia and Herzegovina, H.E. Mr. Predrag Bošković, Minister of Defence of Montenegro, Dr. Nadezhda Arbatova, Head of Department of European Political Studies at IMEMO, Russia, Mr. Janusz Bugajski, Senior Fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), USA, Mr. Paul Schwartz, Research Analyst at CNA and Senior Associate, Russia and Eurasia Program, CSIS. In this dynamic and fruitful discussion, the panelists addressed the issue of Russian influence, while trying to come up with a solution for the issue of future Russian position in the region. Stressing the importance of NATO in this matter, Mrs. Pendeš stated that becoming a NATO member is not just a question of stability, security, but also of adopting new values, the rule of law, democracy, as well as of the protection of human rights. When asked if Russia is a threat or not, Mrs. Pendeš remarked that the question is very complex and that we should not focus just on the current situation, but also on the past. "No influence can be a threat if you clearly define your foreign policy goals", she asserted. However, she argued that Russia's influence now cannot be neglected. 2BS FORUM

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However, the Minister of Defense of Montenegro, Mr. Predrag Bošković underlined that Russia is a threat to the foreign policy interests of Montenegro. Along the same lines, he pointed out: "Montenegrin integration into NATO is neither directed against Russia, nor anyone else, but whoever tries to influence foreign policy

No influence can be a threat if you clearly define your foreign policy goals. H.E. Mrs. Marina Pendeš

priorities of Montenegro, will encounter a closed door". He added that Montenegro is ready to open the door to all who are willing to observe the laws of Montenegro. Montenegrin integration into NATO is neither directed against Russia, nor anyone else, but whoever tries to influence foreign policy priorities of Montenegro, will encounter a closed door. H.E. Mr. Predrag Bošković

Dr. Arbatova tried to explain why the Balkans is important for Russia. She pointed out that Russia was historically involved in the Balkans because Russia had and still has its economic interests in the region. "Russia cannot block NATO enlargement in the region, but it will try to retain its

presence", Dr. Arbatova voiced. She reminded that after Russian annexation of Crimea, Russia started to strengthen its relations with those countries who were not satisfied with the EU.

Russia cannot block NATO enlargement in the region, but it will try to retain its presence.

Dr. Nadezhda Arbatova


On the other hand, she said that she never believed in NATO aggressions, but that she was against NATO enlargement because she understood that it would be used by those politicians in Russia who are not intersted in good relations between Russia and the West.

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In addition to this, Mr. Janusz Bugajski said that the issue is not Russia, but a specific Russian regime which intends to roll back the gains that the West made in the past 25 years. "Russia does not have the capabilities to achieve what it wants to, but Putin certainly has ambitions", he remarked. According to him, Russia is trying to inject itself to this region. In the words of Mr. Bugajski, NATO is not just a military organization, but also a political union, security organization, which is why the future tasks of NATO in this region are going to try unearth problems and threats that come from Russia or Islamic terrorism. Russia does not have the capabilities to achieve what it wants to, but Putin certainly has ambitions. Mr. Janusz Bugajski

The US will stay involved and will continue to increase its involvement in the region. Mr. Paul Schwartz

Mr. Schwartz agreed with Mr. Bugajski and added that the EU and NATO accession has been trying to do almost too much to try to resolve some of the ethnic security problems, but at the same time seeks reform in the region. On the topic of US

presence, he remarked: "The US will stay involved and will continue to increase its involvement in the region". He stressed that it is one of the key contributions to Montenegro to be able to deny Russian access to the Adriatic Sea. 2BS FORUM

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SIDE EVENTS In addition to the planned panel discussions, 2BS Forum gave a great prominence to a supporting event, the workshop “SECURITY IN THE WESTERN BALKANS” organized by The Portal European Western Balkans with the support of German Marshall Fund of the United States of America and in cooperation with the Atlantic Council of Montenegro. The workshop, held on the margins of 2BS Forum was organized as an hour and a half long conversation with Dr. Michael Carpenter, foreign policy adviser of the former American Vice President Joe Biden and the Director of the Penn Biden Center for Diplomacy and Global Engagement.


Dr. Carpenter pointed out that Russia’s more and more intense opposition to the Western countries is a trend existing in the region for the last 10 years. It turns out that what Russia is doing in the region, thus in Montenegro, is actually cheaper, less risky and more successful, since it does not comprise the use of conventional weapons. He added that the Western Balkan countries which are not NATO members are still very vulnerable to Russia’s influence. Furthermore, Dr. Carpenter believes that politicians from the West should rethink their relations with Russia, since their next step is never predictable.

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PRESIDENTIAL DISCUSSION: “AGAINST THE INSIDIOUS WILES OF FOREIGN INFLUENCE, THE JEALOUSY OF A FREE PEOPLE OUGHT TO BE CONSTANTLY AWAKE” The second day of TO BE SECURE (2BS) Forum started with a presidential discussion entitled “AGAINST THE INSIDIOUS WILES OF FOREIGN INFLUENCE, THE JEALOUSY OF A FREE PEOPLE OUGHT TO BE CONSTANTLY AWAKE”. This panel was moderated by the President of the Atlantic Council of Montenegro, Dr. Savo Kentera. The panelists were H.E. Mrs. Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović, President of Croatia, H.E. Mr. Filip Vujanović, President of Montenegro and H.E. Mr. Borut Pahor, President of Slovenia. The presidents gave introductory speeches which were followed by a constructive debate. Their discussion was focused on NATO and EU accession processes, the challenges faced with during those processes, as well as on the necessity for regional cooperation. Mrs. Grabar-Kitarović claimed that Montenegro will join NATO this year despite the obstacles it had and thus it is an exceptionally good example to all the countries of SEE. She added that she believes, although Montenegro will still have obstacles, its Euro Atlantic path has been paved.

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Taking into account the whole Western Balkan region, or in her words, the Southeast Europe, Mrs. Grabar-Kitarović put emphasis on cooperation and consolidation, while adding that every country has the freedom of choice. "We have to stick together and fight for the right of every country to choose its own future", she pointed out. In his speech, Mr. Vujanović emphasized that by accessing NATO, Montenegro has met its constitutional requirement. He added that upon becoming a NATO member state, Montenegro is much closer to the EU, as well as that Euro Atlantic integration of Montenegro is not a process against anyone, but a strategic goal. The

We have to stick together and fight for the right of every country to choose its own future. H.E. Mrs. Kolinda GrabarKitarović

President outlined the benefits that Montenegro will have from NATO,such as the possibility for a faster economic growth, new investments, as well as the improvement of the country’s credit rating. Furthermore, he believes that this membership will contribute and possibly accelerate the process of European integration. "I am confident that, after regaining independence, our NATO membership will be the biggest heritage of Montenegro", Mr. Vujanović outlined. In his opinion, this region has no future without permanent stability and that Montenegro has no permanent stability without NATO.


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Giving his opinion on Montenegro as part of the Alliance, Mr. Pahor stated that Montenegrin NATO membership is an optimistic sign of peace and stability in Southeast Europe, as well as that it proves that things are possible. He also underscored that reconciliation is one of the key processes in order for people to see the Euro Atlantic integration process as “hope” and not as “fear”.

We need dialogue. Dialogue, enlargement, cooperation and attention of the international community are crucial. H.E. Mr. Borut Pahor

When it comes to the region, Mr. Pahor believes that, although these relations have deteriorated, it is still possible to improve cooperation. According to him, if there is a problem in one country, it is probable that it will have implications for all countries.

Speaking of Russia, the President concluded that a new phase of cooperation with Russia is necessary. "We need dialogue. Dialogue, enlargement, cooperation and attention of the international community are crucial."

I’m confident that, after regaining independence, our NATO membership will be the biggest heritage of Montenegro. H.E. Mr. Filip Vujanović

The Presidents all agreed that the Euro Atlantic integration are a way forward, as well as that the countries of the Southeast Europe have to stick together, since their mutual cooperation is crucial for their security and stability.

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PANEL IV: SHAKING THE WEB OF ALLIANCES: TURKEY, RUSSIA AND THE WEST

The fourth panel, under the title “SHAKING THE WEB OF ALLIANCES: TURKEY, RUSSIA AND THE WEST”, was moderated by Mr. Darren Evans, CEO of Julius Management and Advisory Group, while the panelists were Amb. Dr. David Shahnazaryan, Senior Analyst at the Regional Studies Center (RSC) in Armenia, Amb. Alper Coşkun, Director General for International Security Affairs in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Turkey and Dr. Ariel Cohen, Director of the Center for Energy, Natural Resources and Geopolitics (CENRG) at the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security (IAGS), Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council of USA. The panelists discussed the changing of alliances, We have no ambitions taking into account the stance of Russia, Turkey in Syria. All we need is a and the West towards Syria and South Caucasus, stable and secure Syria as well as their mutual relations and the without any terrorist consequences that those relations will have on the actors on the ground. future. Amb. Coşkun emphasized that EU membership continues to be a strategic priority Amb. Alper Coşkun for Turkey, as well as that, in cooperation with Russia, Turkey might be able to change the destiny of the region, but with the US and its allies on board. Speaking of Syria, Amb. Coşkun remarked: "We have no ambitions in Syria. All we need is a stable and secure Syria without any terrorist actors on the ground.


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He added that Turkey preserves the territorial integrity of Syria and that if they are to lay the ground for political solution in Syria in coming years, they will have a chance to change the destiny of the regime. Amb. Dr. Shahnazaryan pointed out that, unfortunately, although Turkey is Armenia’s neighbor, it is not a friend of that country. On the issue of Russia-Turkey relations, Amb. Dr. Shahnazaryan remarked that today those countries have contradicting Amb. Dr. David Shahnazaryan interests, but added that he does not believe that there is some conspiracy policy against Turkey by US and Russia, because the tactical situation is dictating how the US will act. "Putin's power cannot exist without confrontation with the West", he remarked. According to him, Turkey - Armenia relations are the key of South Caucasus security and maybe more important than Nagorno Karabakh conflict. Furthermore, from the Armenian point of view, he stressed that Armenia is not in a good position whether there is a confrontation or close relations between Turkey and Russia. Putin’s power cannot exist without confrontation with the West.

Continuing on the topic of Russian engagement in Ukraine and Syria, Dr. Cohen came to a conclusion that Russia cannot indefinitely expand expensive military engagements either around its periphery or in Syria, thousand miles away from its periphery. He reminded that Syria is important, since for the first time after the end of the Soviet Union, Russia projected power beyond the borders of the former Soviet Union. "This is a historic period where the NATO institutions, EU institutions, the traditional friendships such as USTurkey are being tried", he underlined taking the whole situation in consideration. This is a historic period where the NATO institutions, EU institutions, the traditional friendships such as US-Turkey are being tried. Dr. Ariel Cohen Dr. Cohen added that the Turkish political leadership should think to what extent they want to increase the friction with US and to what extent Turkey and the US need to think in long term about strategic cooperation. 2BS FORUM

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PANEL V: “MEDIA IN THE POST-TRUTH ERA: RETHINKING DEMOCRACY AND SECURITY

The moderator of the last panel under the title “MEDIA IN THE POSTTRUTH ERA: RETHINKING DEMOCRACY AND SECURITY” was Mr. Brent Sadler, Ex Reporter, CNN, while the panelists were Amb. Miodrag Vlahović, Former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Montenegro, Mrs. Tinatin Khidasheli, Former Minister of Defense of Georgia, Mr. Robert Pszczel, Public Diplomacy Division, Dr. Michael Carpenter, Senior Director, Penn Biden Center for Diplomacy and Global Engagement, Dr. Gregory Simons, Associate Professor, Uppsala Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies, Sweden. Stupidity breeds In this dynamic and fruitful discussion, the propaganda. panelists addressed the issue of propaganda, fake news, social media and their role in the post-truth era, while trying to come up with a solution for the Dr. Michael Carpenter issue of spreading disinformation. When asked by the moderator about the events happening during the buildup to NATO accession, Amb. Vlahović remarked that the campaign for NATO was under threat not only from Russia and that the problem with fake news are the different audiences these news are directed to, as well as that those audiences are, most of the time, inclined to believe certain things and disinterested in listening to certain truths. ATLANTIC COUNCIL OF MONTENEGRO

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Furthermore, Amb. Vlahović argued that fake news and propaganda are still efficient because they are feeding the prejudice existing within Western Balkans. Referring to attempts of impeding Montenegro’s NATO accession, he stressed that Russia did not take Montenegro’s intentions seriously. "Our Russian friends probably misinterpreted and misread the readiness, willingness and decisiveness of ruling political forces in Montenegro to really make sucha a decision and finalize our road towards NATO", Amb. Vlahović remarked. Our Russian friends probably misinterpreted and misread the readiness, willingness and decisiveness of ruling political forces in Montenegro to really make such a decision and finalize our road towards NATO.

We are in a stage when lines between the truth and lie are blurred…and that is probably the best grounds for any propaganda machinery to get more active and make sure that confusion transforms into more loyalty to their news sources rather than the others.

Amb. Miodrag Vlahović

Mrs. Tinatin Khidasheli

In terms of media in the post-truth era, Mrs. Khidasheli underlined that Russia is perfectly using history as a very good and fertile soil for the work of propaganda, since history is easily manipulated with and the Balkans is famous for very contradicting histories told by nations living in those countries. "We are in a stage when lines between the truth and lie are blurred...and that is probably the best grounds for any propaganda machinery to get more active and make sure that confusion transforms into more loyalty to their news sources rather than the others", Mrs. Khidasheli argued. She added that there is no real, in depth-understanding of the reasons for fake media and attention that the ordinary people pay to fake media. The panelists agreed with Mrs. Khidasheli on her remark that it is easy to blame everything on Russia and that, although there’s no doubt about Russian presence, the bigger problem is in our societies, societies which are under transition. Mr. Pszczel described Russian disinformation propaganda as an industry and added that, although there are political instructions

You have to stay healthy yourself, you have to believe in your principles, you have to be pretty sure and check the facts even more. Mr. Robert Pszczel

one should simply not look at it as fully comparable. Furthermore, while comparing propaganda to a virus, he stressed that it has to be approached

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with confidence, using a Polish proverb “Lies have short legs” as a starting point for developing the right strategies for fighting fake news. "You have to stay healthy yourself, you have to believe in your principles, you have to be pretty sure and check the facts even more.", he claimed. He strongly argued, and Mrs. Khidasheli agreed, that propaganda should not be fought with propaganda and that there is another way to deal with the virus. Dr. Simons explained how the very notion of fake news has developed over time and said that 10 or 15 years ago, when people were defining fake news, they were defining something that was fabricated and that today, fake news is something that does not fit in with the world view. "That becomes a bit problematic, because we have to ask what the role and the purpose of news is.", Dr. Simons remarked. He added that news are not anymore That [fake news] becomes a bit about informing people objectively, so problematic, because we have to that they can make a reasonable ask what the role and the decision based on the available facts. purpose of news is. Instead, according to Dr. Simons, news Dr. Gregory Simons are becoming similar to lobbying. Asked whether he agrees with Dr. Simons on his view that journalism is turning into a kind of a lobbying operation, Dr. Carpenter responded that there are journalists that certainly try to lobby, but that there is also the political manipulation of what is going on. Dr. Carpenter continued by explaining that propaganda is partly a result of the cable news networks relying more on entertainment than on news. "Stupidity breeds propaganda", he emphasized. He stressed that lying goes back to the primordial times, that we’ve always lied and always had propaganda, but that the 24/7 cable news coverage and the need to comment on what happened two seconds ago are feeding this phenomenon. Dr. Carpenter concluded with an optimistic view of the future of propaganda.


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RECEPTIONS

Furthermore, an important part of the Forum were the two receptions which served as a platform for participants to discuss relevant topics in a more informal atmosphere. The first reception was held at Hotel Splendid and its host was H.E. Prof. Dr. Srđan Darmanović, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Montenegro.

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The second reception was held in the Hotel Queen of Montenegro and its host was H.E. Mr. Predrag Bošković, Minister of Defense of Montenegro. Both receptions provided an excellent opportunity for participants to meet, network and discuss relevant political issues before the official panels.


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MEDIA COVERAGE

This year’s 2BS Forum was tremendously well broadcasted in Montenegro and abroad. Around 40 media crews followed this year’s event. 2BS Forum 2017 media coverage this year started with announcement of the event on RTCG, TV Vijesti, as well in Daily Press Vijesti, Portal Vijesti, PRVA TV, TV Budva, Agenzia Nova, Dnevni Avaz, PINK Montenegro, FOS Media, Antena M, E-Vijesti. During the Forum, all major television crews in Montenegro and abroad: TV N1, HRT, TV Vijesti, PRVA TV, PINK Montenegro, Radio Television of Montenegro, Aljazeera Balkans, TV Budva, Anadolija Agency, etc. continuously reported from the conference. Also, other media such as: Radio Free Europe, Politika, B92, Vijesti (Daily Press and Portal), Portal Analitika, Daily Press Pobjeda, Daily Press Dan, Dnevne Novine, Café del Montenegro, Antena M, Radio Television Republika Srpska, Dnevni Avaz, Moja Hercegovina, Faktor, FOS Media, BETA, Tanjug, Blic, Voice of America, Government Bureau for Informing, Jutarnji list, Večernji list, Večernje Novosti, Agenzia Nova, Magyar Idok, European Western Balkans, XLPRESS TV, HABERLER, SONDAKIKA etc. reported on 2BS Forum daily. A number of journalists conducted interviews at the Forum with influential figures and participants of the Forum. This represents a concrete testimony of growing importance of 2BS Forum in the region, as well as in the transatlantic security community. You can find the media clipping for 2BS Forum 2017 at the following link.

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FACTS & FIGURES

7 PANELS

36 SPEAKERS

412 PARTICIPANTS

32 COUNTRIES

30% WOMEN

70% MEN

40 MEDIA OUTLETS

41.8K IMPRESSIONS


18.6K IMPRESSIONS

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UNDER THE AUSPICES

ORGANIZER

STRATEGIC PARTNERS

PARTNERS

2BS FORUM

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GENERAL SPONSOR

FRIENDS OF THE FORUM

REGIONAL MEDIA SPONSOR


MEDIA PARTNER

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WITH SUPPORT OF

2BS FORUM

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