5 Escaping the Neon Glamour?

5 Escaping the Neon Glamour? Potential Return Migration of Rural Migrants in China Li Yu, Wei Xu, Yu Zhu, and Liyue Lin

Si~ce ~he onset of reforms in the late 1970s, interregional rura l-urb.rn m1grauon has been gradually on the rise and becomes a momentous force dri~ing Ch.ina's econorni~ gro_wth and urban development. The sheer Sl.'.£1le of interre~1onal labor m1grat1on has drawn much scholarly attention and ca.used w~despread c~ncerns over various emerging iss ues of rem porn ry migrants m urban Chma. However, the theoretical and empirica l litt'raturc on migration has paid scant attention to the fact that many labor mi~ra nrs return to their home of origin after spending a number of years in rhe hosr cities. In fact, there were three significant upsurges of return migratio n in China since the 1980s. The first and second upsurges emerged between 1989 and 1991 and between 1998 and 1999, and th e third srarrcJ in 2008 and is an ongoing process (Zhang 2009). The scale of recurn migration has expanded tremendously over the last decade. The data from rhr National Population and Family Planning Commission show char as o f 2008 chc coral number of return migrants reached over 13 mi llion nacionwi

0.129

8.929

1.471

3.334

1.00002

0.934

0.868

2008 remittance (yuan) Social network Used to communicate in Mandarin (reference: none)

2.18 *10-5* l.19 *10-5 -0.142

0.147

Local comm unity parriciparion (reference: none)

-0.288

Escaping th N e l'on Glam our? 91.J 0.233 1.524 o.7rn

Resid~ntia l neighbor network (reference: others) Local residenc

-0.241

Migrants from same origins Colleagues

0.159

0.096

2.J() J

0. 786

0.238 -0.206*

0. 119

0.347 1.93 1 3.022

I .I 0 I

Friend with local residents (reference: none)

0.163 0. 171

0.8 14

Need help from local residents (reference: none)

0.440* * *

0.161

7.461

1.553

Used to urban lifestyle and habits (reference: none) Self-assessment (reference: not su re)

-0.308**

0.159

3.756

0.735

View self as urban residents View self as migrants View self as both

-0.544 0.509*H -0.2

0.435 0.153 0.208

1.563 11.019 0.926

0.580

Village Resources Farmland (mu} House

1.663 0.8 18

0.004 0.468 »=> *

0.009 0.161

0.155 8.426

1.004 1.597

Model chi-square Cox & Snell R2 .Percentage correctly classified

168.556*

1.269

»I}

0.104 63.9%

Significance level: ·~"*0.01, **0.05, 11-0.10 Source: 2009 survey of migrants in Fujian.

Demographic variables include age, gender, education, ma rita l status, ~ukou status, and migration experience. Among these variables, only education is statistically significant. A one-year increase in schooling dd~

r11t1 11

Demographic to-4

1.()()() l

Marital status (reference: not married ) Married Hukou status (reference: nonagricultural) Agricultural Hukou Migration experience (year) Migrant Work

Training (reference: no training) Had training Family Family size Family member in same city Child education (reference: in village) In the same city Connections with origins Distance to destination city (km )

6.54*10-4 *»* 1.56* 10-4 0.325

0.248

1.7 1'

I. ~X4

Month at home after initial migration

0.360*»

0.183

3.8.56

1.43 ~

Have lands in origins (reference: none)

1.12*1 0-5

1.84*10-5

0.368

1.0000 I

2008 remittance (yuan) Social network

0.001

0.004

0.025

l.lHll

Used to communicate in Mandarin (reference: none)

-0.443

0.216

4.1 \)5

0.642

Have families in origins (reference: none)

(c1mtmucd )

106 Li Yu, Wei Xu, Yu Zhu, and Liy11c Lin Table S.7 {continued)

Local community participation {reference: none)

Coefficie11t

S.£.

Ward

Oclds ,,,,,,,

- 0.518

0.375

1.917

0.5 95

-0.385 -0.03 0.379 -0.161

0.242 0.234 0.257 0.177

2.536

0.680

0.017 2.175 0.831

0.9 7 0.851

0.837 '~**

0.242

1 J.947

2.309

-0.328

0.236

1.925

0.72

-2.27*~

1.096 0.228 0.348

4.292 6.603 1.9

0.103

0.014

0.014

1.002

0.274

1.862

1.454

Residential neighbor network (reference: others) Local resident Migrants from same origins Colleagues Friend with local residents (reference: none) Need help from local residents (reference: none) Used to urban lifestyle a nd habits (reference: none}

1.460

Self-assessment (reference: not sure) View self as urban residents View self as migrants View self as both

0.586*** -0.480

1.797 0.6 19

Village Resources Farmland (mu} House Model chi-square Cox & Snell R2 Percentage correctly classified

0.002 0.374 128.331 :} >l"> 0.157 67.1%

Significance level: '°' 0 0.01, **0.05, iq.0.10 Source: 2009 survey of migrants in Fujian.

of returning for male migrants, a 4 percent increase for every 1,000-yu~n remittance sent. However, there is little difference in the amount of remit· tance sent between return and nonreturn female migrants when all ocher variables are controlled. Social network variables have no significant effect on male migrants in deciding migration intention; but for female migrants, their return is significantly affected mostly by this variable. A lack of relanve; and migrant friends in a host city increases the odds of ret urning by 130. percent for female migrants.

intentio~ 1~

Esca ping the eo n G lam o ur( l () In the self-assessment ca tegory, viewino 0 , . If . . . bl f b h h ncsc .ls ,\ m1gr.mr ' ' , , ~. ·ficant vana e o r ot genders. Lack of self- . ti..1 • • . • • n1 h f . · con u cno .· "' " h th l ( It )' ·ncreases the c ance · . l))1 t 11C O UU'> . 1.• I f o re turning to the pla··e '" f Orlj.tln ) 6 d 79.7 percent o r m ale anulation Science 4: 1 1- 15. ·· !: Z hu, Y. 2007. "China Floating Popul ation and Their Settlement Intention in ih · Cities: Beyond Hukou Reform." Habitat lntcrnatio11al 3 1(1): 65-76. ( Zweig, D. 1997. "To Return or Not to Return ? Polit il..'.s vs. ELonomiLs in Ch.1 na's Brain Drain." Studies in Comparative lntematio11al Dc11efo/1111c 11 t .P (11.

92-125.

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