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by
Morteza Ahmadivala in partial ful llment for the degree of Master of Science in Industrial and Systems Engineering
This is to certify that we have read this thesis and that in our opinion it is fully adequate, in scope and quality, as a thesis for the degree of Master of Science in Industrial and Systems Engineering.
APPROVED BY:
Dr. Amir Azaron
....................
(Thesis Advisor) Dr. Hatice Tekiner
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Dr. Bora Cekyay
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This is to con rm that this thesis complies with all the standards set by the Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences of stanbul ehir University:
DATE OF APPROVAL: SEAL/SIGNATURE:
April 2016
Declaration of Authorship I, Morteza
Ahmadivala, declare that this thesis titled, 'A Simulation Based Approach
for Reliability Evaluation and Optimization of Time-Dependent Systems: A Case Study of Production Systems (Barin Plast Company) ' and the work presented in it are my own. I con rm that:
This work was done wholly or mainly while in candidature for a research degree at this University.
Where any part of this thesis has previously been submitted for a degree or any other quali cation at this University or any other institution, this has been clearly stated.
Where I have consulted the published work of others, this is always clearly attributed.
Where I have quoted from the work of others, the source is always given. With the exception of such quotations, this thesis is entirely my own work.
I have acknowledged all main sources of help.
Where the thesis is based on work done by myself jointly with others, I have made clear exactly what was done by others and what I have contributed myself.
Signed:
Date:
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A Simulation Based Approach for Reliability Evaluation and Optimization of Time-Dependent Systems: A Case Study of Production Systems (Barin Plast Company)
Morteza
Ahmadivala
Abstract Reliability is an important factor to assure the productivity, and e ciency of a system in many industrial establishments. One should look for a higher level of reliability, for his company, to increase the properly working time of the system by reducing the chance of failure occurrence in the system and so on increasing availability of the system which means more e ciency and pro t. The purpose of this study is to evaluate and improve the reliability level of Barin Plast Company (which is allocated in Iran, Tehran) based on available methods of reliability assessment and optimization. The product of this company is edge bandings which are mostly used in wood industries. Generally, there are two approaches to evaluate the reliability in dierent systems which are analytical and simulation methods. In this study, problem restrictions don't let us to implement the assumptions of analytical approaches, therefore there would be a big dierence between the results of this method and real conditions of company. So, Monte Carlo simulation has been chosen to evaluate the reliability level of this company. The simulation model has been prepared by Arena software that is a strong tool in this area. After assessing the system's reliability, the main goal is to improve the reliability of company by adding redundant components to the system or replacing current machinery with better ones. There are some methods for redundancy allocation and nding the optimal solution for system's reliability. In this study a heuristic model has been prepared, for reliability evaluation of the system with redundant components, and the results are compared by solving the optimization problem. The required data to prepare the machinery failure probability distributions are provided by company in which they show the failure scenario of machinery for a period of 5 years. The desired conditions of company's reliability is 85 percent for period of 30 days.
Reliability, Monte Carlo Simulation, Optimization, Redundancy Allocation
Tezin Türkçe Ba³l§
Morteza
Ahmadivala
Öz Tahran-ran'da faaliyet gösteren Barin Plast irketi'nin güvenilirlik düzeyinin analiz edilmesi ve geli³tirilmesidir. Bu i³letmenin ürünü, genelde ah³ap sanayiinde kullanlan kenar bantlama makinesidir. Farkl sistemlerin güvenilirliklerinin de§erlendirilmesinde genellikle analitik yakla³mlar ve simülasyon metotlar olmak üzere iki yakla³m kullanlr. Bu çal³ma kapsamnda incelenen problem, analitik yakla³mlarn uygulanmasna izin vermemekte, bu nedenle bu metotlarn sonuçlar ile i³letmenin gerçek vaziyeti arasnda büyük farkllklarn olmas beklenmektedir. Bu sebepten dolay, bu i³letmenin güvenilirlik düzeyinin de§erlendirilmesi için Monte Carlo simülasyonunun kullanlmasna karar verilmi³tir. Simülasyon modeli, kendi alannda güçlü bir ürün olan Arena yazlm ile hazrlanm³tr. Sistemin güvenilirli§inin de§erlendirilmesinden sonra, yedek bile³enlerin sisteme eklenmesi ya da mevcut makinelerin daha güvenilir olanlarla de§i³tirilmesi yoluyla i³letmenin güvenilirli§inin artrlmas amaçlanmaktadr. Yedek bile³enlerin yerle³tirilmesi ve sistem güvenilirli§inin optimum noktasnn bulunmas iç
