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ADAPTIVE GOVERNANCE AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE TROPICAL HIGHLANDS OF WESTERN SOUTH AMERICA KENNETH R. YOUNG and JENNIFER K. LIPTON Department of Geography and the Environment, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78712, U.S.A E-mail: [email protected]

Abstract. Climate changes occurring during the past several decades in the high elevations of the tropical Andes Mountains have implications for the native plant and animal species, for the ecological integrity of the affected land cover, and for the human-biophysical systems involved. Consequences are also probable for rural inhabitants and their livelihoods, especially for farmers and pastoralists. Biophysical factors have always changed in these mountainous zones; the extent and degree of alteration acting on native and agricultural biodiversity is the concern. Addressing these climate changes is probably within the adaptive capacity of many local land-use systems, unless external socioeconomic or political forces are unsupportive or antagonistic. Suitable programs to provide information, subsidies, or alternatives could be designed. We highlight some of the inherent resiliencies of natural and cultural systems in the Andes and suggest that these systems contain lessons that could be useful elsewhere, in terms of the traits that allow for the sustainable utilization of dynamic and heterogeneous landscapes.

1. Introduction Indications of dramatic and accelerating changes in the high elevations of the Andes Mountains come from scientific observers who commented on retreating valley glaciers and ice cap margins above 5000 m elevation (Hastenrath and Ames, 1995; Kaser and Georges, 1999; Francou et al., 2003). One example is from the Quelccaya ice cap in southern Peru where 37 years of observations document an increased rate of retreat during the 1990s (Thompson et al., 2003). While loss of glacial ice signals climatic changes at higher elevations, at lower elevations the signs are more subtle, influencing landscapes and their human-biophysical systems. A human imprint in the Andes is near ubiquitous: agricultural fields reach to above 4000 m and livestock, especially cattle and sheep, graze to snowline. Local people interact with landscapes as they grow crops, extract natural resources such as firewood, and graze livestock (Gade, 1999; Mayer, 2002). Additionally, the rural inhabitants of the Andes are immersed in formal and informal institutions concerned with governing resources. To some extent, their decisions in relation to changing environmental controls must themselves be regulated by economic, cultural, political, and legal concerns. Their livelihoods and local landscape perspectives are important to consider when studying climate change and integrating its effects into large-scale policy considerations. Climatic Change (2006) 78: 63–102 DOI: 10.1007/s10584-006-9091-9

c Springer 2006

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ADAPTIVE GOVERNANCE AND CLIMATE CHANGE

The consequences of changing climatic processes on these areas are more subtle than solely the loss of glacial ice upslope. They will be complicated for both natural and cultural systems: shifts in plant species dominances, alterations in primary productivity, and changes in the kind and tempo of disturbance regimes. Human responses to the effects of climate change will likely be complex and variable. Individuals living within kilometers of mountain glaciers are directly affected by environmental perturbations. Implications for them might be alterations in the cover of spontaneously occurring and cultivated plants, in water resources, in exposure to natural hazards, and in household or community decisions on when and where to farm. Those shifts will affect the native biological diversity of the Andes, which is notable in its richness and uniqueness. In particular, the tropical latitudes of the Andes were recently ranked as one of the world’s most important and threatened biodiversity hotspots by Manne et al. (1999), Myers et al. (2000), and Brooks et al. (2002). This biodiversity is often adjacent to landscapes with high cultural diversity, as measured by ethnic or linguistic differences (Fjeldsä et al., 1999). There are numerous species with limited ranges (Young, 1995), leading to high placeto-place differences in species composition, for example, for birds (Poulsen and Krabbe, 1998; Ruggiero, 2001), plants (Young et al., 1997; Luteyn, 1999; Young and León, 1999; Keating et al., 2002; Young et al., 2002; Leimbeck et al., 2004), insects (Brehm et al., 2003), and aquatic organisms (González and Watling, 2003; Ko´ınek and Villalobos, 2003). Biodiversity concerns are mediated through institutions, including community and household decisions on extraction and management of species considered useful. In this paper, we evaluate the likely consequences of ongoing and future climate changes for land-use systems of rural parts of the tropical Andes, for the various institutions that make land management decisions for the respective countries and landscapes, for the native plants and animals, and for the institutions involved in their conservation or utilization. Most of our experiences and examples are drawn from fieldwork in the Peruvian Andes, but many of our conclusions appear to be valid regionally. We obtained additional insights from participation in formal and informal projects examining the state of conservation and rural development programs in Peru. These included national-level reviews (Rodr´ıguez and Young, 2000), and regional assessments (León and Young, 1996; Young and León, 1999, 2001). Our eventual goal is to provide sufficient information so that the climate-related changes in the tropical Andes can be compared and contrasted with fluxes in other places worldwide. We suspect that some of the inherent resiliencies of natural and cultural systems in the Andes contain lessons for use elsewhere. We begin with a case study from an area in and around Huascaran National Park, containing the world’s largest protected tropical mountain landscape. We then place those findings in the context of the general features of Andean rural livelihoods, stressing the aspects that seem most relevant to climate change. Finally, we evaluate the likely resilience of those coupled human-biophysical systems, especially as

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viewed through the lens of governance and decision making by the people and institutions involved.

2. Case Study: Huascaran National Park and Surroundings in North-Central Peru Huascaran National Park (HNP), located at approximately 9◦ 30 S and 77◦ 49 W in the Department of Ancash, north-central Peru, protects tropical alpine vegetation communities along the highest mountain chain in the tropical Andes, the Cordillera Blanca (Figures 1 and 2). The information in this case study serves as an example of the interlinkages that exist among different institutional frameworks all operating within one defined study area. Our goal is to reveal some of the challenges and benefits facing decision-makers concerned with biodiversity and climate change in tropical mountain environments. The Cordillera Blanca is one of the world’s youngest exposed granitic batholithic intrusions (Atherton and Petford, 1996; McNulty and Farber, 2002). Extending approximately 180 km parallel to the Peruvian coast with over 200 peaks that surpass 5000 m elevation, HNP encompasses most of the mountain range. It covers 340,000 ha and includes Mt. Huascarán (6768 m) as the highest point (Figure 2). Given the tropical location, annual seasonal temperature variability is minimal staying at approximately 15◦ C at mid-elevations. However, in the upper elevations diurnal temperatures may fluctuate dramatically, resulting in daily freeze-thaw events. The Cordillera Blanca glaciers rarely extend below about 4700 m and as evidence suggests, this limit has been moving upwards as glaciers retreat, increasing the size and number of proglacial lakes, which can be dangerous if they become destabilized (Ames et al., 1989; Lliboutry et al., 1977; Kaser and Osmoston, 2002). Glacial runoff, 296 glacial lakes, and seasonal rainfall (October to March) provide not only water for drinking, agriculture, and industry for the park’s peripheral communities and cities, but also hydroelectricity for distant urban centers on the Peruvian coast. Amidst the numerous glacial valleys that intersect the eastern and western flanks of the Cordillera Blanca, with steep elevation gradients ranging from 1900 m to upwards of 6000 m, is an heterogeneous mosaic of vegetation and land-cover types. High Andean woodlands of Polylepis, Buddleia, and Gynoxis and stands of Puya raimondii, form isolated patches throughout the national park (Smith, 1988). Cushion-plant communities, wetlands, and natural grasslands are also considered a top priority by the park managers for flora and fauna habitat conservation. Vicuña (Vicugna vicugna), the Andean bear (Tremarctos ornatus), Andean huemul deer (Hippocamelus antisensis), and the Andean condor (Vultur gryphus) are species under protection and conservation priorities within the national park (INRENA, 2003). Approximately 337,520 inhabitants, mainly bilingual Quechua-Spanish speakers, live on both sides of the mountain range and are engaged in livelihood strategies

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Figure 1. National protected area system in Peru, with the general location of the case study indicated by arrows.

of subsistence and market-based agro-pastoralism, mining, and tourism. Population in urban centers, such as the departmental capital of Huaraz, has increased over the past few decades due to migration from rural areas and has been driven by job opportunities in commercial centers. Situated just to the west and parallel to the Cordillera Blanca is the intensively cultivated Santa River Valley, where urban development, infrastructure, and services are more pronounced than on the eastern side of the mountains (Figure 2). On the eastern flank of the mountain range are smaller populated centers and more isolated valleys, including the Mosna and Pomabamba River Valleys, which flow to the Marañon River system and eventually drain to the Amazon basin. Private property owners and peasant communities


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Figure 2. Location of the case study in north-central Peru of Huascaran National Park (which includes much of the Cordillera Blanca), the Cordillera Huayhuash Reserved Zone, and major urban centers.

(comunidades campesinas) have lands or perceived property rights that extend into the national park. Agricultural production of alfalfa, corn, wheat, barley, and beans occurs predominantly at elevations between 2000–3200 m. Within intermontane basins and valleys, potatoes, ulluco, oca, broad beans, and quinoa are frequently cultivated from 2500–4000 m. Communities in the study area also often utilize

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upper elevations (3900 to more than 5000 m), dominated by grasslands, woodland patches, shrublands, and wetland plants, for seasonal rotational grazing of mostly cattle, horses, and sheep and, less frequently, alpacas and llamas. The delimiting boundary for the national park was established at roughly the 4000 m elevation line in 1975. Prior to the creation of the park, the highland area was under the jurisdiction of large farms (haciendas), private ownership, or mining concessions. Peruvian agrarian reform took place between the years of 1969–1975 and was coincident with regional rebuilding and restructuring following a destructive 1970 earthquake and subsequent ice and rock avalanche that took the lives of over 18,000 people in the immediate area (Lliboutry et al., 1977; Kaser and Osmoston, 2002). The park was established for the conservation of the unique flora and fauna and as a tourist destination for Peruvians and foreigners alike. Local people, who often self-identify as campesinos (peasants), are involved in seasonal adventure- and ecotourism-based economies as guides or porters and in commercial services, in addition to traditional agropastoral and mining livelihoods (Bartle, 1993). In many zones of the park, conflicts exist between local interests and park directives regarding access to and use of what is legally considered park territory. Located approximately 120 km to the southeast of HNP is another range, the Cordillera Huayhuash (Figures 1 and 2). This mountain range extends for 26 km between 10◦ 12 and 10◦ 27 S and about 76◦ 55 N and has over 117 glaciers with a majority draining to the Pacific (Ames et al., 1989). Long-term agro-pastoral use has facilitated culturally created biological diversity while areas of Polylepis forest patches harbor distinct avifauna habitat (Cerrate, 1979; Oxford University, 1996). The area surrounding the Cordillera Huayhuash was officially integrated in 2002 into the Peruvian national protected-area system and is categorized as a Reserved Zone (Resolucion Ministerial, 2002), while it awaits formal categorization and delimitation. In-residence during 2002 and 2003, the second author conducted fieldwork in core and periphery communities of HNP and the Cordillera Huayhuash. As part of a study on landscape change and national park management, the research included collecting ground truth data for different land cover types. Semi-structured interviews were carried out with 117 individuals (89 men, 28 women). All interviewees lived in the park periphery and had a vested interest in the resources of the region; they were, therefore, defined as stakeholders. Key informants interviewed were engaged in park management, glacial research, peasant community groups, and/or individuals with private interests. Interviews were conducted in homes, fields, and offices in Spanish and Quechua with the help of field assistants. Interviews and discussions with household, community, and regional-level officials provided qualitative data for the analysis of perspectives on landscape change and potential responses to climate change. During the semi-structured interviews, the informants were asked open-ended questions covering the following areas: household and community land use and land-cover change, perceptions of


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climatic changes, glacial ice limit differences, agro-pastoral production rates and changes, institutional participation, and interactions with the park. Fieldwork also included community mapping to obtain Quechua toponyms, land-cover categories, and historical land-use and land-cover descriptions. To obtain the interviewees’ perspectives and discourse on park management and landscape change, data were sought at various levels of institutional hierarchy. The institutional interactions and forms of adaptive governance that occurred within this one region help illustrate the complex levels and issues involved in resiliency of land-use systems and biodiversity conservation. We became sensitized to the perceptions of climate change on future landscape scenarios by conversations with local residents. A typical example is Felix Valverde, who lives in the park periphery. We visited his lands in July 2002 and 2003. Born and raised in the same locale, he lives with his family at 4290 m. They are members of the peasant community of Aquia, located 18 km to the southwest of his dwellings. Their livelihood is dependent upon livestock, subsistence agriculture, and occasional wage-work. The Valverdes personally own over 100 head of livestock, mostly sheep, horses and burros. In addition, in exchange for goods, they serve as guardians for other animals that are owned by Aquia community members who live closer to town. The Valverde family has agricultural lands at lower elevations closer to the town where they grow crops such as wheat, beans and maize, plus Andean tubers: mashua, oca, potatoes, and ulluco. With a newly paved road, they are able to travel to their fields and to town more frequently than in the past. Señor Valverde’s concerns about glacial retreat and the impact that it has made in his life—and would make in the future—were striking. Over the years he has watched as the glaciers have receded, and he knows that fairly soon they might be gone; some small glacial caps in the valley where he lives have already disappeared. As he identified different (de)glaciated mountain peaks, with elevations ranging from approximately 5095–5250 meters around his homestead, his recall of where the glacial margins used to be was often associated with personal events in his life. For example, in the 1960s he worked for a Peruvian-owned silver mine and on his way up to work over the pass, he used to cut off pieces of the glacial ice. Today there is a layer of talus to demarcate this past glacial lobe boundary. Thinking about this kind of change provoked him to comment upon how the mountains will soon be “desnudo” (naked) and only rock will remain. He is certain that this will happen within his lifetime and that it will affect his livelihood. He further noted that the immediate environmental changes were not only related to the disappearance of the glaciers, but also to a difference in water drainage patterns and a drop in precipitation. As glaciers have receded, some drainage and runoff channels that were accessed by the Valverde family diminished in flow and were now either intermittent or dry. As a result of this change, he needed to obtain water from sources further away where runoff and glacial melt had increased. Also, he related how, in some valley bottoms, lakes and wetland areas increased in size, so they had changed the sites where they took their sheep for pasturing.

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According to more than half (56%) of informants, glacial land cover is undergoing the most evident rate of change throughout the area. This is corroborated by glacial inventories and long term studies of glacial recession completed in the study area (Ames et al., 1989; Hastenrath and Ames, 1995a, 1995b; Kaser et al., 1996; Kaser and Georges, 1997; Morales, 2000; Thompson, 2002; Kaser and Osmoston, 2002; Thompson et al., 2003; Francou et al., 2003; Silverio and Jaquet, 2005). Georges (2004) reported that glacial cover has decreased from an estimated extent of 800–850 km2 in the 1930s to only 619 km2 by the beginning of the 1990s. We observed that people from different communities in our study area have, with a sense of humor, renamed the recently deglaciated mountains. Local toponyms that once described a shape of an ice cap, now refer to the loss of that glacier. For example, a mountain that was called “sleeping lion” for the shape of the glacier is now called “lion has left” (that is, león dormido has become león se ha ido). Or in the local dialect a mountain that once had a glacier is now called simply “mountain without glacier.” Quechua households and communities within the study area had environmental perceptions that were informal indicators of seasonal climate variability and change. Approximately two thirds (68%) of informants, including Sr. Valverde, when questioned commented on how precipitation has decreased compared to the past. Many local residents noted a decline in hail and sleet, which seasonally blanketed landscapes with overnight accumulations of more than a few centimeters. Sleet seemed to serve as an important environmental predictor for the likelihood of damaging frosts, affecting seasonal agricultural patterns. These traditional signals provided farmers with an ecological agricultural decision-making toolset that in many cases might be relied upon more firmly than technological or scientificallyvalidated signals. As another example, in a couple of communities, the presence of an Andean swift circling and flying in low to mid-elevation zones indicated that the rains were going to arrive early. Conversely, a relatively low population of firefly beetles indicated that it would be a dry season. Woodland and grassland cover were two other land cover categories that informants claimed to have changed over time. Data from Byers (2000), who used repeat photography of specific valleys within HNP from the years of 1936 and 1998, clarifies that native forest cover of Polylepis stayed the same or increased, while nonnative forest cover of Eucalyptus and Pinus increased. Contrarily, our informants claimed that native forest cover had reduced. Reasons stated for the change in forest cover were that tourists utilized wood for campfires, mining camps used it for fire and construction, people from communities removed wood for cooking and construction, and that natural fires destroyed woodland patches. According to 34% of informants interviewed, grassland cover had reduced in terms of quality of production for livestock. Grasslands were described by informants as overgrazed, insufficient for cattle or with a low quality of native grasses. An indicator of reduced forage value is said to be the presence of a high-elevation cactus, Opuntia flocossa, which becomes more common with overgrazing. Both of these land cover changes


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were identified by local rural residents as a change in spatial extent and quality of the land cover itself. When discussing changes in climate, people often directly correlated the change in climate to a change or potential change in agro-pastoral productivity. For highland families, livelihood modifications and adaptations are imminent in the ongoing landscape change associated with glacial retreat and climate change. As in the case of the Valverdes, decisions on grazing, herd size, dealing with disease, and agricultural patterns are ongoing. An example of the complexity of these interactions is in regards to grazing conditions. Cattle are considered an investment for many rural families; a source of livelihood and wealth. Informants commented that reduced fodder has led to inadequate milk production. One possible household-level response to these perceptions would be to adjust herd size or, more commonly, to diversify livelihoods and seek supplementary income sources, such as wage labor, to compensate for declining production. Another response might be to acquire usage rights for grazing at higher elevations. Informants indicated that livelihoods based solely on agriculture were currently insufficient given the amount and rising costs of inputs, labor, resulting yield, and market prices. In fact, of 67 men interviewed in Ancash in 2002 and 2003, 52 (78%) participated in part-time wage labor in other farms, jobs, or regions of Peru. The majority of jobs sought within Ancash included tourism, mining, and labor on other farmsteads, as well as short-term employment in governmental programs for forestry, roads, housing, and other construction infrastructure projects. In addition, young men from agricultural communities frequently out-migrated to urban areas seeking wage-labor and opportunities. In one sector of a community in Ancash, 87% of the young men between the ages of 27 and 33 had left the community. This type of demographic change will have an impact on the future of community level decisions and will reduce the experiential traditional knowledge that is required to sustain culturally maintained agricultural biodiversity (e.g., Stobart and Howard, 2002). Women are involved in almost all of the agro-pastoral functions and are in charge while husbands and sons migrate seasonally. However, they are frequently marginalized from direct positions in community social organizations, assemblies, or training classes. Informants indicated that current market returns for subsistence crops do not compensate for their cost of agricultural inputs. This economic stress was emphasized on a regional level: in July 2002, campesinos participated in three days of marches and strikes to voice these and other concerns, effectively shutting down urban areas and principal transportation routes. In addition to these acts of resistance, farmers responding to market-driven forces adapt to new management practices and build institutional connections with technical agro-pastoral programs. National and international nongovernmental (NGO) networks that promote agricultural production along economic corridors spread information about new techniques and varieties. For example, on the eastern periphery of HNP, in response to a regional development program, farmers are integrating different varieties of maize,

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primarily from southern Peru, which are known to be in demand and can be cultivated at slightly higher elevations. Community institutions may seek out respected NGOs that offer technical assistance, because of a keen interest in enhancing commercial production and bettering local skill-sets and knowledge. NGO and other institutional technical programs will need to update and modify their advice, skills, and techniques to respond to potential changes in pests or other management and production issues associated with climate change. These transnational networks simultaneously link producers to potential international export markets. Many individuals in the study area had serious concerns about running water and were aware that, although now they might have water, as the glaciers recede irrigation canals would possibly have less flow and some highland crops would be in jeopardy. A fear generally expressed was that the glaciated mountains someday would resemble the semiarid, rain-shadow mountains visible on the horizon towards the dry Pacific slopes; thus, this fear raised their concerns about possible loss of water-availability, increased fire-prone areas, and shifts in agricultural zonation. In one northern valley where water was being diverted for hydroelectric purposes, informants discussed their concerns about the lack of sufficient water for household use and for irrigation of mid-elevation crops. In other areas, freshwater primarily from glacial melt was channeled for mining and industrial needs that would otherwise be used by the rural populations for agriculture and consumption. A subsidiary concern is that with glacial retreat, increased destabilization of slopes might occur, causing natural hazards, such as landslides and mudflows, as has occurred in the past (Lliboutry et al., 1977; Kaser and Osmoston, 2002). Local communities are vulnerable to these conditions. Regional and national institutions will need to respond to damage when it occurs and to plan for increased risks in the future. Regional institutions stabilize and drain glacial lakes, as well as reinforce dams. However, what are lacking are appropriate social mechanisms, such as regional and community-based warning systems, logistical emergency plans, infrastructure, and financial support. Although current research efforts can monitor runoff from the glaciers of the Cordillera Blanca for local needs (Kaser et al., 2001; Mark and Seltzer, 2003), a scale-related disjuncture exists between the scientific-technical studies that examine hydrologic resources of the Cordillera Blanca, the national institutions involved in water use and planning, and the demands and needs of local populations. Private, transnational corporate institutions with political and economic clout have access to water resources and are assured of compliance from national and regional institutions that manage HNP’s natural resources and protect its biodiversity. Communities have protested and petitioned to regional officials for better safeguards of community water rights. Informants commented in interviews and in public meetings that, given the private, regional, and national interests associated with water usage, the local communities will be the first affected by water scarcity and imposed restrictions, while potentially the last to have their needs addressed. Due to previous political situations, there is a legacy of mistrust and apprehension that many


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of the campesinos have toward the national and corporate interests involved with water resources. What remains to be seen is how these multiple institutions will collectively negotiate the potential impacts of hydrologic resource scarcity with impending (and continuing) climate change. Differences in perspectives, by individual and community institutions, for tenure and rights to highland resources of the “protected” mountain landscape are critical factors in the conservation of biodiversity in the Cordillera Blanca. Although the boundary of the national park has been established for 30 years, from a local livelihood perspective, individual and community needs take precedence when it comes to resource use. Individuals and representative community institutions surrounding HNP consider a number of the regional and national institutions affiliated with conservation as “hypocritical,” “corrupt,” and “paternalistic,” as striving to satisfy the centralized Lima economy and political needs before they address local conditions. Despite a norm of some internal disharmony amongst peasant community members, they share an overriding bond of collective action, trust, and community cohesion that supercedes the external authority imposed by regional and national conservation institutions. Elements of trust and collective action are what facilitate adaptive capacity and governance in social ecological systems. In one of the sites where interviews were carried out, informants were asked to state the organizations and institutions that they were directly involved with: 82% participated in at least seven different committees or groups. The predominant committees that had membership were concerned with agricultural lands, pastures, forests, irrigation, sports, health, and the community kitchen. Community institutions are viewed as having served as reliable social scaffolding to provide support, information, and expertise to members and affiliates when other external institutions have been unreliable, self-interested, or unavailable. Based on these and other observations, our conclusion is that the community level of adaptability and resiliency, aided by clever land-use decisions by households, will allow many rural Andean residents to cope with climate change. Regional, national, and international institutions interested in preserving biodiversity conservation in the face of climate change, for example by establishing conservation corridors and additional protected areas, will need to address and surmount embedded negative perspectives to achieve long term goals and plans. Piecemeal approaches, historical legacies, and improper management of conservation areas in Andean areas have been the result of centralization and lack of funding for projects, despite ample local technical expertise and knowledge. For example, local community actors are in the position of deciding the status of the Cordillera Huayhuash as a potential protected area and are involved in asserting local level agendas into future national conservation planning and institutional structures. However, there is a divergence of interests and agendas among different sociopolitical actors in the Cordillera Huayhuash. Fujimori-era neoliberal economic reforms attracted foreign mining investors to the region, and while the mines offered jobs and opened up new roads, communities also perceived a state-mandated loss of access to the land from

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national or external interests. Local institutions organized by charismatic community leaders are in the process of facilitating demands to maintain autonomy over the landscape and natural resources of the Cordillera Huayhuash, whether it is for conservation or tourism purposes or for the extraction of mineral resources. Vocal, self-motivated familial networks organize to actively declare their positions while other networks seek to develop bridges and coordinate activities between multiple communities and exogenous institutions. The role of trusted external sympathetic actors to assist in the adjudication, translation of policy, and technological expertise is important to the adaptive capacity of the institutional structures involved in conservation and resource governance in the Cordillera Huayhuash. With local, regional, national, and international institutions and actors establishing coordination and information networks, the future of the Cordillera Huayhuash might be developed as part of both a horizontal and vertical conservation corridor, connecting to HNP (and potentially to other protected areas), and providing an altitudinal range within the protected area that would allow for internal ecological shifts. Local communities however are positioned as the ultimate decision-makers for the governance of this area as a conservation zone. This highland area facilitates an interconnection of the high Andean environment while directing management towards culturally selected agro-biodiversity and native endemic flora and fauna diversity along the altitudinal and ecological gradients. However, more research on land cover needs to be completed to obtain a better perspective of how variables of climate and biodiversity are changing in the tropical alpine environment. Highland areas that will be more available to tourism, road development, and disturbances are also susceptible to dynamic changes pending climate change. Therefore, better inventories and studies on the feedbacks between community decisions and land cover should be undertaken. Conservation mechanisms, such as offered by the designation of the Cordillera Huayhuash as a protected area, and the promotion of transparent, innovative formal and informal institutional linkages provide a supportive framework that could attend to climate change implications.

3. Andean Land Use and Climate Change As noted in the case study, spatial heterogeneity characterizes the biophysical realm of mountainous environments (Troll, 1968; Gerrard, 1990; Körner, 1999). The tropical Andes have particularly long, complex environmental gradients associated with elevation because mountaintops can exceed 6000 m with adjacent valley bottoms 3000–4000 m below. The outer flanks of the Andes connect contiguously to Pacificand Atlantic-drainage basins and descend to or near sea level. Intermontane valleys often have drier environments due to rain shadow effects, thus juxtapositioning varied humidity zones within steep elevational gradients. Underlying this topographic variation are substantial intraregional differences in bedrock, from limestones or andesites to a great variety of metamorphic rocks. The resulting soil differences can


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at times create local-to-regional variations in the color and physical and chemical characteristics of surface soils. The steep elevational gradients of the Andes create zonal changes in ecological conditions related to altitude. It is possible to distinguish plant formations (ie. grasslands, shrublands, forests) and vegetation types along these gradients. Grasslands and other low herbaceous plant communities are found above about 3600 m. A broad ecotonal area from that elevation down to as low as 1000 m alternates between forests and shrublands as predominant land cover types. The shrublands are found in semi-arid to seasonally dry areas, while forests are found in wetter areas or are restricted to protected ravines in drier places (Young and León, 2001). The distribution of biological diversity follows these trends (Gentry, 1995). Young (1998) evaluated some of the biogeographical consequences of the inherently complex environmental mosaics of Andean landscapes that are further subdivided and pushed toward coverage by nonforest vegetation due to long-term human influences. Andean forests are often small, surrounded by nonforest vegetation, exposed to altered physical conditions along forest margins (ie. edge effects), and isolated from similar forest tracts. This habitat fragmentation would exclude most forest interior species, for example certain kinds of raptors (Thiollay, 1996) and frogs (Toral et al., 2002). The forests and their biota may be exposed to chronic anthropogenic disturbances from fires, firewood harvesting, grazing, and cutting to establish agricultural plots. The plants and animals in the most heavily altered landscapes would seemingly need to be a robust subset of the original flora and fauna. Young (1998; also Young and Keating, 2001) listed some of the characteristics expected for the plants, including shade intolerance, ability to resprout following mechanical damage, and seed dispersal by small birds or wind. The animal types expected to be successful would be small-bodied birds that are granivores or frugivores, and inconspicuous, small mammals. Larger native animals either are more common in forest edge or shrub habitats, such as the white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus), or are currently restricted to high mountain environments (Andean huemul deer, vicuña), isolated shrublands (guanaco, Lama guanicoe), or distant forests (Andean bear). Given these difficulties, what can currently be said about likely climate change consequences? Warmer temperatures (Vuille and Bradley, 2000) would tend to shift plants, animals, and ecosystems upslope (e.g., Inouye et al., 2000; Enquist, 2002), except when other environmental controls, such as local edaphic conditions (soil depth or drainage) or aspect-related differences (e.g., south-facing slopes, windward-facing slopes, etc.) prevent those shifts from occurring. Increased carbon dioxide levels may promote primary productivity of some ecosystems (Woodward, 2002), but the effect appears likely to be dampened due to other limiting factors such as the availability of soil nutrients and the downward adjustment of number of stomata per unit area in developing leaves exposed to higher ambient carbon dioxide levels (Körner, 2000; Brownlee, 2001). In some cases, aquatic and wetland habitats may be expected to increase in size, particularly in the lakes and high

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elevations of retreating glaciers. However, with a potential for increased sediment load, these environments might undergo other permutations having a direct and generally negative impact on aquatic life. A valuable component of Andean biodiversity was actually created by the domestication of native plants and animals during the evolution of land-use systems (Piperno and Pearsall, 1998). Most of this additional diversity is genetic in nature, with new gene complexes maintained in domesticated varieties that are distinct from their wild relatives growing nearby in habitats adjacent to the agricultural fields. Farmers have developed different varieties with particular desired properties. This process appears to have reached its zenith in the potato cultivation of the central Andes. One field may have 40–60 potato variants—each with a common name and often each with a unique use, because of taste or texture, or because of the growth conditions required (Brush et al., 1995; Zimmerer, 1996; Ochoa, 1999; Hijmans and Spooner, 2001). This type of biodiversity can be kept intact through interventions such as cold storage gene banks, although at great expense. In situ approaches to maintaining genetic diversity are dependent on farmers who keep planting and utilizing their full range of crop varieties (e.g., Perales et al., 2003). This practice allows for further evolution and cultural selection of the genotypes. It requires either intact traditional systems of seed/tuber interchanges or some kind of subsidy. Some genetic biodiversity programs are beginning to contemplate climate change implications. All such efforts are useful because a wider base of genetic diversity is kept available for future generations. Yet another aspect involving climate change is the adaptive nature of many of the Andean land-use systems. As we reveal in the case study above, farmers in the Andes are attuned to biophysical patterns, processes, and the resulting spatial heterogeneity. Agro-pastoral livelihoods are realized in patchy, complex environments that in some land-poor communities may be sub-optimal for various kinds of production (Denevan, 2001; Zimmerer, 2003). Andean farmers lower risks and accommodate ecological variability by having diversified household economies, utilizing multiple fields, and selecting numerous seed and crop types. One household might graze livestock in upper-elevation communal land, grow potatoes in their fields at the highest elevations, maize and wheat at intermediate levels, and cassava in valley bottoms (Gade, 1975; Brush, 1976; Young, 1993). Still other fields are created out of wetlands that are modified with drainage canals and raised seedbeds (Zimmerer, 1991). Knowledge of how to manage useful plants and animals is embedded within the agricultural practices and traditions that are passed on to children in households (Young, 2002). The social networks established in youth are often the same that are implemented later in life to organize collective harvesting or tillage, to maintain irrigation systems, and to allocate land-use rights. Often these systems nestle hierarchically within municipal, district, and provincial governing frameworks. But this need not be the case if, for example, the people living in towns do not consider land-use decisions in outlying rural areas to be worthy of attention. Or there may


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be ethnic or age differences between rural inhabitants and those wielding political power that negate tendencies to collaborate. Also, as was noted in and around HNP, increased out-migration of young people seeking job opportunities and experience in urban centers can lead to younger generations not participating in household or community decision-making institutions and local political networks. This might be one of the inevitable consequences of urban areas having better opportunities for education, health care, and jobs. As was the situation in the case study, probably the biggest ongoing concern in much of the rural Andes is access to irrigation water. Often elaborate local systems are in place to assure some sort of equitable distribution of water in relation to need (Mitchell and Guillet, 1993; Gelles, 1999). For example, time allocation of waterflow to individual farm plots within an irrigation network, known as mitas de agua, can be controlled through community-based institutions responding to household demands and personal interests. This kind of social capital is also critical for extending planting seasons beyond the two to eight months a year when the rains fall and for good development of particular water-demanding crops. Farmers avoiding risk might determine which fields to cultivate depending upon household water rights, thereby providing a type of insurance in dry years. The retreat of Andean glaciers signals a negative glacial mass balance, which may be waning due to less precipitation, less snow accumulation in the form of glacial firn, more melt due to higher temperatures, more ablation, or a combination of these factors. Vuille et al. (2003) concluded, from an admittedly sparse regional data set, that glacial retreat in the tropical Andes is most likely due to warmer temperatures at high elevations and possibly higher relative humidity. This regional conclusion, however, does not exclude other changes from being important in particular areas: Kaser and colleagues (Kaser et al., 1990; Kaser, 1999; Kaser and Osmaston, 2002) have stressed the likelihood of slight decreases in precipitation being important for tropical snowline retreat. Over the next few decades, increased demand for water from growing population centers and industry will affect farmers in rural areas, adding to the complexity of making predictions. It is not yet clear how urbanization and globalization will affect land-use strategies and rural natural resource management. While larger and more accessible markets provide potential incentives to intensify agriculture and increase Andean production of commodities, those same national and transnational socioeconomic forces connect to other producers, perhaps in other countries, who may be able to produce the same product more economically or efficiently (e.g., Bebbington, 2001). The community-based systems that regulate or control access to water also function in regards to other natural resources, including the use of lands for grazing or planting (Flores Ochoa, 1977; Guillet, 1981). Community formal and informal institutions are built upon pre-European and Spanish-derived land-use practices. The governance of community lands entails making decisions about the type of agricultural production, for example, whether it is for local consumption or for larger markets. Roads, particularly if paved, dramatically change options by transforming

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accessibility and cost-effort assessments by rural inhabitants selling excess production or even growing items specifically for urban markets, as seen in the example of Sr. Valverde’s land use decisions. In some cases, this transformation has shifted tenure to more privately owned lands. This shift was especially pervasive in the 1990s when neoliberal reforms became an international mode and expectation (Inter-American Development Bank, 1997; Thorp, 1998; Bury, 2004), with governments allowing for direct purchase of lands in places where once such transactions would not have occurred. Another new socioeconomic phenomenon is the increased importance of remittances from family members living in cities or other countries (e.g., Jokisch, 2002). This change can alter the intensity and nature of land use, especially if valuable lands are controlled by absentee owners. Andean lands have supported millions of people and vigorous societies throughout millennia. Local observations and perceptions of climate phenomenon are embedded in familial and community traditions and are an important aspect of technical knowledge. The farmers near Lake Titicaca are able to forecast ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) events based on the visibility in the night sky of certain constellations (Orlove et al., 2000). Those events affect the high elevation lake basin with prolonged droughts, so several months warning helped local people make decisions on when and where to plant. Understanding these and other traditional and folk-based indicators of these climate variations and landscape-change perceptions, such as documented in the case study, will be important for studies of both Andean land-use management and climate. Responses of greater exploitation would be expected from people who are observant of the rapidity of recovery of vegetation following a disturbance or the swiftness of repopulation of an area by some animal species affected by harvesting or other population alteration. This feedback could result in the masking of biotic responses to climate change. It might require field experiments or studies in natural areas kept free of land use to distinguish climate-caused responses from those same responses as mediated, lessened, or increased by concurrent human exploitation or manipulation. An important question is, Are the progressive or more extreme changes to be expected in the next several decades in the Andes within the adaptive capacity of these people and their land-use systems?

4. Andean Rural Decision Making and Multi-Scale Governance A critical aspect for the analysis of adaptive capacity for environmental decision making is the assessment of the institutions that people are engaged in, with consideration to the historical, familial, and community contexts from which they operate (Blaikie and Brookfield, 1987; Robbins, 1998; Ostrom et al., 1999). As we showed in the case study and as reported from throughout the tropical Andes, many of the agro-pastoral activities and decisions are made and implemented on a household, extended family, and community level (Brush and Guillet, 1985; Mayer,


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2002). Transnational linkages and market forces are increasingly integrating once geographically and socially marginalized Andean communities into larger networks of formal and informal institutions (Price, 1994; Bebbington, 2001; Miles, 2004), thereby having an impact on household decisions regarding resource management. In an Andean household, distinct activities and livelihoods are dependent upon labor and priorities, evaluated in relation to season, access to different ecological zones, and the ease or cost of connections between rural and urban centers. This level of decision making in turn influences the types of participation in various institutions operating on other scales. Thus, all these scales must be considered when assessing the potential consequences of climate change to livelihoods and biodiversity.

4.1.

HOUSEHOLDS

Many highland families engage in multiple livelihood strategies in order to satisfy and sustain basic needs. A household might be involved in field agriculture, raising livestock, or wage labor all at the same time. Kin associations, reciprocity, community duties and responsibilities all factor into one household’s daily and seasonal functions (e.g., Allen, 1988; Mayer, 2002). Scheduling tasks, measuring inputs, trade-offs, assessing risks and other opportunities are a few of the agricultural factors that concern households (Browman, 1987; Netting, 1993; Zimmerer, 1996). Concurrently, agricultural decisions within a household can be based upon internal domestic factors such as age and gender, labor availability, priorities, and acceptance or avoidance of risk (Valdivia et al., 1996). Likewise external factors, including political stability, can be influential. Also a large degree of individuality exists, with some households specializing in certain tasks or products due to the experiences of household members. Individualism in communities can lead to increased pressure on agricultural land as people shorten fallow periods for maximum production and gradually depart from communal controls (Mayer, 2002; Zimmerer, 2002). Economic choices required for agricultural intensification and the production of off-season crops can also compete with the labor demands necessary to maintain crop diversity and selection meant for subsistence. Under the influence of changing biophysical and environmental conditions, the information available to households about type and quantity of inputs will be a limiting factor. Pastoral work often involves multi-tasking and is frequently carried out by either gender depending upon labor availability (Brush, 1987). In a number of situations, women and children combine pastoralism with other responsibilities of child rearing, plant collection, knitting, and food preparation for home or market. For the agro-pastoralists living within the study area multi-tasking and livelihood diversification are important aspects of adaptive capacity because of the risk of dependency on any one resource. Livelihood diversification contributes to the resiliency of

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Andean households by creating access to potential subsidiary channels of income. Combining market oriented and subsistence agriculture, the export of meat and wool, renting of communal lands, economic assistance through familial bonds, or engaging in wage labor can be essential for household self-sufficiency. Diversifying can buffer financial shortfalls when unpredictable events or disturbances occur (Valdivia et al., 1996). Frequently, men will seek supplemental wages, working for larger farmsteads, on construction activities, or on corporate farms, and tend to their own family plots with available time. The ongoing transnational influences that are progressively integrating rural people into market-based economies will have a direct effect upon household resource management and technologies for agricultural production (Bebbington, 2001). Culturally created biological diversity, such as the numerous potato varieties, will likely only be maintained through households and other local social institutions that mediate and implement agricultural and pastoral land-use decisions. Farmers consciously select traditional crops, such as tubers and maize, to ensure a diverse and vigorous seed-pool that does not require the high inputs that commercial production of wheat, barley, oats, and potato varieties need (Zimmerer, 1996; Mayer, 2002). Thus, the question in reference to climate change is, Does the capacity for invention and adaptation still exist among these informal and local institutions? The stressors on household resource management certainly include educational and other attractions that pull youth away from pursuing rural livelihoods, plus the availability of imported food products, which compete with the sales of extra produce from Andean households. We have talked with farmers who consciously maintain high crop diversity, partly out of tradition, partly from a sense of cultural or local pride. They mentioned neighbors that had switched to cash crops, such as alfalfa to be sold for fodder and barley for beer-making companies. Farmers also contrasted the dozens of potato varieties they may maintain on their lands with the actions of others who have converted to the much more limited set of improved varieties promoted by governmental offices.

4.2.

COMMUNITIES

Community and inter-community relationships create and then retain agricultural biodiversity. However, these institutions are experiencing stresses and undergoing transformations. Although, in general, urbanization and globalization lessen agricultural biodiversity, several countervailing processes do occur. A resurgence of ethnic or regional pride in the Andes often includes assertions that native plants and animals should receive special attention. In areas of Peru and elsewhere, rural communities show great interest in participating in community seed exchanges and agricultural fairs, some of which is promoted by regional and international NGOs concerned with agro-biodiversity. Increased access in the difficult terrain of the Andes by an improved transportation network means that there is more


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potential for peoples of similar environments, separated by high mountain barriers, to come into personal contact. Improved roads and transportation networks allow for capital-intensive agricultural production in more competitive and interlinked markets (e.g., Sierra et al., 2003). Even extremely remote areas receive radio programs or satellite television broadcasts. Frequently, early morning programming includes information meant for agriculturalists. In an Andean community, social networks built upon familiarity, close contact, and trust, are indispensable and create social capital (Ostrom, 1990; Bebbington, 1996, 1997). Networks of reciprocity and shared goals regarding resources are an integral aspect of Andean society (Mayer, 2002). Households that participate in informal or formal resource-based institutions may express their obligations to the entire community by helping to look after community resources. Of course, participation might not always be the case. Individuals and households may have personal and competing interests, such that personal or familial agendas can circumvent community directives (Orlove, 1977). The obligations intrinsic in informal institutions and peer groups may demand commitments away from the habitual tasks of the household. Disharmony or competition amongst members of the same community can occur and may affect communal land-use management or result in the disrespect of communal norms. Or other changes may erode traditional claims on individual actions. Participation in communal institutions governing land use, social activities, or labor needs is invaluable not only for the community, but also for the individual household (Mayer, 2002). In the tropical Andes, many informal institutions operating within a community consist of the personal arrangements and bonds that are formed through reciprocity, where unspoken agreements and contracts between people are fulfilled through mutual assistance. This was demonstrated in the case study by the high number of community organizations that individuals participated in. Collective action as mediated through community institutions may have in place mutual coercion mechanisms to assist with compliance (Robbins, 1998). In the Andes, commitment to communal activities, often in the form of labor exchanges known as minkas, collectively guarantees access to resources, participation in fiestas, and can be considered a form of social insurance (Mayer, 2002). Spending a day or two working in a communal labor effort known as a faena can ensure that access to water rights, land, or help with a harvest will be available to a household or extended family. Throughout the world, common property resources are frequently governed and managed by institutions, which increasingly are subject to extra-local dynamics (McCay and Acheson, 1987; Guillet, 1992; Robbins, 1998; Mayer, 2002; Zimmerer, 2002; Adams et al., 2003; Dietz et al., 2003; Giordano, 2003). Important Andean pastoral production zones, consisting of tropical alpine grasslands and grass-shrub communities, are often governed as communal grazing areas through multi- or intra-community-based management (Orlove and Godoy, 1986; Knapp, 1991; Zimmerer, 2002). Many upper elevation communities that are land poor or

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do not have access to other ecological zones rely upon income-generating resource management strategies of essential products, such as meat, wool, and the sale of milk for cheese production. Formalized community institutions, such as resourceuser groups, act together in order to manage and coordinate resources within one community. Conducting inventories; making assessments; compiling complaints or concerns from other households; handling allotment, disbursement, and management of resources are some of the responsibilities involved in communal resource management. Participation by at least one member from each sector of a community in the resource-user group is important for facilitating the transfer of information and for maintaining access by that sector to resources in different ecological zones, provided the community has such access. For example, a pasture committee might include at least one individual from each community sector to assist with management of communal lands located in upper elevations. As many community institutions function out of a commitment to shared goals and values, they also are shaped by the cultural norms, information exchanges, and perceptions of the participating members (de Janvry et al., 1993; Adger, 2000). Through these community institutions, the knowledge of landscape change and placement of new rules for governance of resources could be encouraged and adapted if it is deemed important by community members. As we found in our case study, adaptive governance is strengthened by the ability to maintain a checks-and-balance system or transparency among local networks. Community social networks often operate to transmit news. They are usually the first informal institutions to disseminate information about market prices, opportunities or district-wide agendas (Rodr´ıguez and Pascual, 2004). They are also the first to be contacted by district and regional governmental institutions for proposed work or resource-based projects. Increasingly, community organizations are actively seeking and negotiating relationships with other institutions at other scales for economic and technical advantages (Bebbington, 1997). This aspect of community governance is especially important in projects that involve a regionally oriented approach for addressing climate change issues. However, there may be a great deal of skepticism directed toward extra-local institutions, particularly if the extra-local interests are going to impinge upon current resources or livelihoods, as was exemplified for the lands within Huascaran National Park. In some situations where community institutions are opposed to regional or national projects, organized activism occurs, instigating strikes and general resistance (e.g. Healy, 1991).

4.3.

REGIONAL, NATIONAL, AND INTERNATIONAL

Regional formalized institutions, both governmental and nongovernmental, that are focused on resources in the Andes must typically have community contacts and access to networks in order to successfully carry out projects and policies. Establishing


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linkages with community institutions and making strategic alliances are political processes that can strengthen the goals of a broad-based project (Agrawal, 1997; Healy, 2001). Depending upon their particular agendas, regional formalized institutions may sponsor educational and technical training for the betterment of production or for alternative forms of production. This training is often sought out by communities, as was the case for farmers seeking access to improved crop varieties in northern Peru. Some community institutions have intentionally positioned themselves to access national or international technical or financial resources (Bebbington and Perreault, 1999). An important part of the relationship between extra-local institutions and communities is the ability to maintain and follow through on commitments made. As regional programs seek to work on a larger scale, they tend to overextend resources, personnel, and time commitments. Unfortunately, our informants have commented on how this propensity for over-extension can lead to a lack of follow-through on proposals and a resultant waning of trust and interest in projects at the community level. These efforts can also be hampered when neighboring communities compete for limited project resources. In particular, during the 1990s, many governmental institutions, typically under funded and short-staffed, were besieged by neoliberal reforms that sought policies of privatization and natural resource extraction (Escobar, 1995; Stiglitz, 2002; Zimmerer, 2002). These reforms resulted in offices and personnel with inadequate resources and technologies for maintaining or carrying out projects. With the global phenomenon of climate change forcing local and regional changes, institutions of the tropical Andes would have advantages in becoming globally networked. Nested institutional relationships at the local, regional, national and international level will be necessary for creating, implementing, and monitoring climate change policies and projects. For example, regional institutions have benefited from connections with international institutions. Recently, committed individuals working in the upper and middle tiers of governmental programs have taken a more proactive approach to solidify international and national networks to achieve goals for both research and policy-making regarding climate change. In some cases in Peru, administrators have sought out linkages with foreign researchers and NGOs to bring foreign funding, skills, and global media attention to the condition of Andean glaciers with the intent of reinforcing and enhancing existing national institutional structures and infrastructure. One goal for these connections is to promote better coordination and directives regarding research and planning for global climate change in an international context. These new linkages could position local, regional, and national institutions to adequately prepare for water conservation, and hydroelectric demands and respond to natural hazard situations. Combined with grassroots support, flexibility will add to the decision making process. With democracy, national governmental institutions receive their mandates from the voting patterns of large urban populations, with elected and career administrators

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serving as mediators. The rights and needs of minorities, consisting of ethnic and often marginalized, dispersed rural inhabitants, have been historically neglected in Latin America (Maybury-Lewis, 2002). Policies and programs for climate change will need to rely upon the nested institutional information networks. However, these are often bureaucratically dominated by corporate or political interests. For example, in the study area and many other locales, resources such as minerals, water, and/or timber are often extracted by exogenous transnational institutions with powerful political connections. As a result, a spatial and socioeconomic disconnect from landscape changes occurring in the rural highlands may take place. The institutional governance that accompanies climate change phenomenon necessitates ongoing flows of information, institutional transparency, and cooperation between the many entities involved. Possibly, rural development banks could provide short-term loans and agricultural extension agents could facilitate suggestions for adaptations; neither system however, is well developed in the tropical Andean countries. Less clear is how regional, national, and international institutions interface with processes affecting sustainability concerns. This lack of clarity is not only due to a paucity of relevant research, but is also a result of significant region-to-region differences in predominant biophysical and land-use systems. The people near Sajama National Park in northwest Bolivia utilize lands above 4200 m, so their needs must be met from livestock raising and trading for other staples. The farmers near Otavalo, Ecuador not only raise a wide variety of crops for sale in Quito, but are tied to international economic forces through commodity production of handicrafts and remittances from other countries (Korovkin, 1998; Bebbington, 2000). The national institutions involved with farming systems embed regional disparities in their structures, and cohesive national priorities seldom endure as they are prone to reversals when new political parties take office. Even wellmeant international efforts may be carried out in ways that act to reduce local adaptive capacity. In addition to rural livelihoods, the institutions involved with the conservation of biological diversity need to be evaluated. These institutions include the protected areas systems of the Andean countries. They are especially weak in implementing policy and programs, not at the national and international levels, but at the local and regional levels (Young and Rodr´ıguez, in press). There may be compelling global and national reasons to protect a particular place or species, but convincing local people to accept the risks or costs to do so is fraught with contradictions (Young, 1997; Young and Zimmerer, 1998; Zerner, 2000; Terborgh et al., 2002). Sometimes the success or failure of a particular national park or nature reserve to conserve native ecosystems is due to the managerial, technical, and social capacity of the on-site park administration. If personnel are charismatic, local communities can be convinced to merge their goals with park objectives for mutual benefit. But past bad experiences, incompetent personnel, or some other historical or personal legacy can make this impossible.


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The dilemma for national and international institutions involved in biodiversity conservation in the Andean highlands is complicated by the fact that no protected area has been evaluated rigorously for climate change consequences. Thus, little scientific basis exists for taking a particular action, except for extrapolations of approaches from more general concerns (e.g., conservation corridors) or other geographical regions (Western and Wright, 1994; Soulé and Terborgh, 1999). For example, most organized park-people programs in the tropical Andes are premised on possibilities of sustainable extraction of natural resources. Difficulties are numerous, mainly because sustainable extraction rates may be fundamentally unknowable if carrying capacities are not set by equilibrial ecological processes and if there are stochastic and/or progressive changes in physical environmental conditions (Reynolds et al., 2001). Philosophically, these conservation efforts do not include protection and management goals that cover the other non-economic values of biodiversity (Perlman and Adelson, 1997). One such value connects directly to climate change and is part of the founding legislation of all the nationally protected area systems of the Andes: those areas are to be used for scientific research to better understand the functioning of natural environments. Although conservation corridors that can connect together the parks and reserves of national and regional protected-area systems have been amply discussed from both theoretical and practical viewpoints (Soulé and Terborgh, 1999), their applications for climate change are less well developed. Many of the conservation corridor studies concentrate on the species level, focusing on an indicator species that would benefit from habitat conservation (Gutzwiller, 2002). We suggest that conservation corridors could potentially serve two different goals: connecting together similar environments across relatively large distances and providing conservation protection along steep environmental gradients, such as those associated with altitudinal change. The former are herein called horizontal conservation corridors and would potentially lessen the isolation of organisms and permit interchange of individuals and genes, both key conservation concerns (Frankham et al., 2002). The effective area of protected habitat is increased, although there are many real-world concerns of how wide these corridors could or should be, how restrictive their land use or tenure can or must be, if the terrain between protected areas is such that environmental conditions do not change enough to create pre-existing biogeographical barriers, and if species of concern will even move through them. Vertical conservation corridors, on the other hand, are already contained within many of the large national parks of the Andean countries. As an example, Table 1 shows that all but two of Peru’s national parks include elevational gradients of more than 3500 m, effectively connecting together in one conservation unit the lowlands to the highlands. This is an ideal way to buffer for unpredictable climate change consequences. In mountainous environments, such as in the Andes, it is likely that environmental conditions will shift upslope, for example with warmer environments replacing those now found near snowline.

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High elevation ecosystems and species restricted to them may be lost from mountain ranges (Peters and Lovejoy, 1992). This would especially be the case for the nonglaciated cordilleras. Our suggested solution is to combine vertical and horizontal conservation corridors in national, regional, and continental planning. Currently, the national protected area system in Peru consists mostly of unconnected parks and reserves (Figure 1). The vertical corridors would connect disparate elevations and the horizontal corridors would provide additional habitat and connectivity among protected areas. As seen in the case of Peru (Table I), some of the other types of protected areas, for example the national reserves, are designed to feature one major environmental zone and so do not include much elevational or other variation (Rodr´ıguez and Young, 2000). These areas would require both horizontal and vertical corridors to function effectively in the future. There are a number of international NGOs that are working to promote conservation corridors with the involvement of regional and national institutions. In one instance, Conservation International is organizing a series of activities in lands adjacent to formally protected areas in a plan meant to create the “Vilcabamba-Amboró Conservation Corridor” from southern Peru to central Bolivia on the eastern flanks of the Andes. For our case study, the Cordillera Huayhuash reserve would in effect form a conservation corridor with Huascaran National Park. In addition, corridortype areas might be implemented by enforcing pre-existing wildlife laws within their length and extent. For example, there are laws on the books in Peru that restrict hunting of deer and fishing of trout to certain seasons of the year, or that completely outlaw the killing of rare species. However, such laws are not effectively enforced. If they were to be applied in the long, but narrow areas that connect one conservation area to another, some conservation-corridor benefits would be gained without the need to create new legal mechanisms. We believe that the criteria suggested above for conservation corridors and for protected areas would build in enough connectivity and redundancy for most species. That said, we reiterate that the necessary research to classify the thousands of restricted-species of the Andes for their conservation risks is just beginning (Stattersfield et al., 1998; Valencia et al., 2000). In none of the recent studies was exposure to future climate change used as an evaluation criterion. We also feel that local perspectives and multi-scale institutional adaptations need to be incorporated into long term planning for the human and biophysical systems that will be affected by environmental shifts.

5. An Andean Climate Research Agenda Much of the scientific research needed to address these concerns has yet to be done for the tropical Andes, although inspiration could be drawn from advances elsewhere (Mount, 1994; Jackson and Weng, 1999; Kappelle et al., 1999; Foster, 2001;

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TABLE I Nationally protected conservation areas of Peru, including national parks, reserves, and sanctuaries. Those areas with relatively large sizes (>100,000 ha) and large elevational ranges (>3000 m) already act as vertical conservation corridors, in the sense proposed here. Name

Category

Cutervo Tingo Maria Huascaran Cerros de Amotape Rio Abiseo Yanachaga-Chemillen Bahuaja-Sonene Cordillera Azul Manu Otishi Pampa Galeras Junin Paracas Lachay Titicaca Salinas y Aguada Blanca Calipuy Pacaya Samiria Tambopata Allpahuayo-Mishana Huayllay Calipuy Lagunas de Mejia Ampay Manglares de Tumbes Tabaconas-Namballe Chacamarca Pampa de Ayacucho Machupicchu Bosque de Pomac Laquipampa Pantanos de Villa Tumbes Algarrobal el Moro Chancaybanos Aymara Lupaca Gueppi Rio Rimac Santiago-Comaina Alto Purus Codillera de Colan Huayhuash

National Park National Park National Park National Park National Park National Park National Park National Park National Park National Park National Reserve National Reserve National Reserve National Reserve National Reserve National Reserve National Reserve National Reserve National Reserve National Reserve National Sanctuary National Sanctuary National Sanctuary National Sanctuary National Sanctuary National Sanctuary Historical Sanctuary Historical Sanctuary Historical Sanctuary Historical Sanctuary Reserved Zone Reserved Zone Reserved Zone Reserved Zone Reserved Zone Reserved Zone Reserved Zone Reserved Zone Reserved Zone Reserved Zone Reserved Zone Reserved Zone

Year Established Area (has) Elevational Range (m) 1961 1965 1975 1975 1983 1986 2000 2001 1973 2003 1967 1974 1975 1977 1978 1979 1981 1982 2000 2004 1974 1981 1984 1987 1988 1988 1974 1980 1981 2001 1982 1989 1994 1995 1996 1996 1997 1998 2000 2002 2002 2002

2,500 18,000 340,000 91,300 274,520 122,000 1,091,416 1,353,190 1,692,137 305,973 6,500 53,000 335,000 5,070 36,180 366,963 64,000 2,080,000 274,690 58,070 6,815 4,500 690 3,635 2,972 29,500 2500 300 32592 5887 11,347 263 75,102 321 2,628 300,000 625,971 28 km 1,642,567 2,724,264 64,115 67,590

2,350–3,350 680 2,400–6,768 75–1550 350–4,350 250–3,700 200–2450 150–2,320 250–4,050 700–4,150 3,850–4,150 4,008–4,125 9–786 100–750 3810 2,800–6,050 400–4,000 83–160 200–400 104–185 4,100–4,600 400–4,000 0–50 2,780–5,235 0 1,500–3,200 4,112–4,438 0 1,800–6,250 100–150 200–2,550 0–5 0–900 20–50 1,300–2,400 3,825–4,500 200–250 220–1,000 200–2,700 200–650 750–3,600 3,650–6,600

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Guisan and Theurillat, 2001; Walther et al., 2002; Malhi and Phillips, 2004; Thomas et al., 2004; Dockerty et al., 2005). For example, Walker and colleagues (Walker, 2003; Walker et al., 2004) recently provided insights from household-level research in the Amazon that could also be adapted towards the Andean examples explored in this paper. They found that a behavioral model of the consequences of numerous individual household decisions in regard to land use could successfully reproduce the landscape transformations occurring during colonization and frontier expansion. Andean rural residents are making decisions in relation to shifting environmental conditions, to the lands and social capital available through community-level decisions, and to constraints imposed by market forces and governmental decisions (e.g., Swinton et al., 2003; Rodr´ıguez and Pascual, 2004). Each household evaluates their vulnerability with respect to their goals and needs. While it is important to develop computerized models that can relate these factors to shifting land use and land cover, it is just as important for more empirical field work to be carried out to better characterize the range of adaptive practices and responses found along and across the Andean highlands (e.g., Vanacker et al., 2003). Murra (1975) and others (e.g., Stanish, 1992) pointed out that long-distance interchanges of products and information have anciently characterized how the Andes Mountains were used by people, thus permitting existence in areas otherwise inhospitable for the production of certain necessities. Globalization now adds to those spatial linkages while accelerating rates of socioeconomic change, with implications for vulnerability to climate change (Adger, 1999; Metz, 2000; Griffin, 2003; Tanner, 2003; O’Brien et al., 2004; Young and Rodr´ıguez, in press). Although the basics of how households are nested within increasingly complex networks from community to global levels are understood, the practical benefits of nurturing linkages that could add to resiliency have been little explored either conceptually or in terms of the place-to-place heterogeneity of Andean landscapes and livelihood modes. Comparisons with how change occurs in other mountainous regions would also provide insights (e.g., Bartlein et al., 1997; Boggs and Murphy, 1997; Still et al., 1999; Beniston, 2003; Dirnböck et al., 2003; Fagre et al., 2003; Halloy and Mark, 2003; Konvicka et al., 2003; Storch et al., 2003; Whitlock et al., 2003). In addition, the higher levels of social capital, such as traditionally found in the Andean land use systems and as still exists in rural Ancash, Peru, are known to promote climate resiliency elsewhere (Adger, 2003; Fraser et al., 2003). The Andes have experienced much climate change in the past (e.g., Clapperton, 1993; Marchant et al., 2002; Abbott et al., 2003; Hansen et al., 2003), with current climatic envelopes only established in the last 3000 years, a long time for human societies, but very brief compared to the evolutionary trajectories that establish species adaptations (Davis and Shaw, 2001). Thus, many native species will have experienced past climate fluxes similar or greater than what will occur in the coming decades. It is human alteration of land-cover types and population densities of biota that will differ into the foreseeable future, creating novel stresses and land


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cover configurations never seen before (e.g., Pyke, 2004). Combining land-use and land-cover change studies with insights from rural livelihood research will help in further evaluations, including more integrated assessments (e.g., Hannah et al., 2002; Pielke et al., 2002). In fact, we predict that the land-use systems of the Andes will be found to contain redundancy and an ability to predict and accommodate changes in seasonality and climatic variables. Miles et al. (2004) recently used biogeographic simulations of 69 Amazonian plant species to predict dramatic future declines in population viability of almost half of the species. The tropical Andes cover a smaller geographical region than the Amazon, but have a similar amount of plant (Henderson et al., 1991) and mammal diversity (Mares, 1992). The modeling of potential future species distributions for the Andes would need to accommodate the much finer ecological mosaic found in the mountains, with biocomplexity augmented by the barriers to dispersal formed by high elevations and deep river valleys. Lindberg and Olesen (2001) showed that habitat loss would affect both a wild passion plant species and its specialized pollinating hummingbird. Davis et al. (1998) demonstrated in general the need to include the effect of climate change on species interactions and there are numerous ongoing attempts to model the likely distributions of species in relation to climatic envelopes (e.g., Peterson et al., 2001; Erasmus et al., 2002; Kadmon et al., 2003; Oberhauser and Peterson, 2003). Some aspects of ecosystem function may also be predicted based not on the occurrence of individual species, but on the relationship of physical environmental factors to vegetation height, biomass, and trophic organization (Chapin et al., 2000, 2001). The predicting of shifts in distributions will need to take these considerations into account (e.g., Bush, 2002; Téllez-Valdés and Dávila-Aranda, 2003; Cabeza et al., 2004; Mayle et al., 2004; Opdam and Wascher, 2004), as will the assessments of biodiversity conservation areas (e.g., Harrison and Bruna, 1999; Scott et al., 2002; Aremteras et al., 2003; Cabeza and Moilanen, 2003; Araújo et al., 2004; Meir et al., 2004; Saxon et al., 2005). In the meanwhile, the establishment of vertical and horizontal conservation corridors provides a means to proceed that could yield other practical benefits, for example for the livelihoods of rural Andean people, if done appropriately. This land-use planning might permit climate change researchers to build in “degree of human usage” of landscapes as one of the variables they examine or control for, to compare more isolated sites with others that are more utilized. Field experiments of the sort that manipulate atmospheric composition and soil temperature also would be useful (e.g., de Valpine and Harte, 2001; Morgan et al., 2004), but do not appear to be ongoing in the study area. Research finding correlations between climate change and the fates of Andean societies (e.g., Binford et al., 1997) sends a cautionary message ameliorated by long-term evidence of persistence despite climatic stresses (Dillehay and Kolata, 2004; Janusek and Kolata, 2004). What are called “traditions” are in fact ways that information is culturally passed to future generations, sometimes with insights that can be applied elsewhere (e.g., Cash et al., 2003; Altieri, 2004; Stoorvogel et al.,

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2004). The means by which households utilize Andean landscapes, through environmental knowledge and social networks of hierarchical linkages and obligations, may embody transferable lessons.

6. Conclusion Glaciers store water that fell as rain and snow years earlier. As such, they serve as buffers for this natural resource’s availability: melt water can be used for domestic, agricultural, or industrial purposes, even in times when rainfall is low or missing (Barry and Seimon, 2000). The people of the rural Andes who live below glaciated peaks are aware of the dangers and risks posed by steep slopes, tectonic movements, and possible catastrophic mass movements. If questioned, they will also likely indicate that they are aware that there are compensations, because the water can be used during dry periods for irrigation. Burger (1992) noted that the archaeological record from three to four thousand years ago indicates that the need for control and access to water was already apparent in settlement and architectural designs. Those highland slopes that are not overtopped by glaciers or which are too far for canals to be made are limited to rain-fed agriculture. Many of our field observations reported in the case study come from the Cordillera Blanca of Ancash, Peru, where the climate change phenomena of concern include reduced permanent ice and hence more erratic water supplies and possibly more hazardous conditions downhill and downstream. However, the Cordillera Negra lies just to the west (Figure 2) and has probably not had permanent ice since the last glacial period. The agricultural landscapes there are dry for more than half the year, rural populations are less dense, and it seems clear that decreased water availability will impact local people directly. This contrast is likely to be a crucial planning difference to include in institutional analyses: the relative buffering of the physical environment utilized by the social group of concern. Traditional ways of carrying out land use presumably include wisdom acquired from trial and error in the past. In practice, Andean land use is an agglomeration of traditions begun thousands of years ago, leavened by adaptations to new plants, animals, and agricultural products introduced from overseas, and then implemented by individuals drawing upon knowledge and influenced by needs from their households and communities. For example, total land-use options diversified with the introduction of additional plant and animal species from the Old World, with wheat, oats, and alfalfa integrated into systems based on tuber crops, maize, beans, and other Andean species (Gade, 1992). Most traditional Andean households raise native domesticated animals such as guinea pigs (Morales, 1999), and the camelids, llama and alpaca, are used especially in Peru and Bolivia for wool, meat, and cargo transport (Wheeler, 1995). The Old World contribution of useful animals has been extensive: most Andean landscapes are utilized in conjunction with pigs and poultry near households, and goats, sheep, cattle, and horses out


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across the landscape, using the shrublands, wetlands, and grasslands for grazing. We have been struck by the multiplicity of land-use strategies in our study area, as expressed by spatial and compositional differences within and among agricultural fields, and by the complex integration that goes on with the raising of a variety of domesticated animals. In many parts of the tropical Andes, adaptation to fairly dramatic shifts in the location of ecological zones for planting and grazing appears to work by switching the species used or at least their relative proportions. Programs to alleviate stresses originating from climate change should start from this premise and look for ways to maintain, encourage, or even spread through example local adaptations to other locales with similar biophysical parameters. It is not clear that this strategy is within the present-day capacity of most national agricultural and rural development institutions. Perhaps as important, there appear to be fundamental limitations on how responsive those national entities can be to local concerns. For that matter, there are aspects of Andean belief systems that are quite different in origin and orientation from those of many western cultures (Greenway, 1998). Native biodiversity in the spatially and temporally dynamic Andean landscapes also represent an object lesson for evaluating climate change adaptiveness. These plants and animals have been through past climate fluctuations and have survived. Current limitations on their distributions often appear to originate only in part from climatic or other biophysical controls; the other limitations originate with past and present human-caused and land-use-related alterations. Many Andean landscapes appear to be the result of ancient human settlements and land uses (Lumbreras, 1974; Bruhns, 1994; Gade, 1999; Young and Keating, 2001), making them similar to those described in continental Europe (Ellenberg, 1979; Birks et al., 1988; Young, 1997). The biodiversity conservation institutions have not yet assimilated this distinction into practice in the Andes: most efforts have gone into naming large areas as national parks or reserves, while ignoring opportunities for ecological restoration in the remainder of the countries involved. Even more intractable has been the conservation of biodiversity that originates and is maintained by cultural practices associated with land use. Programs focused on species of concern, on landscapes with significant native vegetation, and on agricultural land races and breeds are all needed; climate change concerns should be part of the decision matrices used for setting goals and priorities (e.g., Balmford et al., 2005). Institutional support needs to be strengthened at local, national, and international levels (e.g., Strigl, 2003). The largest difficulty will be the need to proceed without clear scientific precedents or guidelines. However, this uncertainty is a part of all governance faced by climate change (e.g., O’Hare, 2000; Reilly et al., 2001; Lynch et al., 2003; Pearson and Dawson, 2003; Johnson and Gillingham, 2004; Mastrandrea and Schneider, 2004) and some solutions likely already exist among the responses of native plants and animals and within the dynamism of local land-use systems.

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Acknowledgments We are grateful to Paul Robbins and the Adaptive Research and Governance in Climate Change program of the Ohio State University for the invitation to participate in the conference that led to the presentation of this paper. Blanca León and Carol Squires cheerfully helped with the manuscript. K. Young most recently received travel and research assistance from a Mellon Foundation faculty grant for research through the University of Texas at Austin’s Population Research Center. J. Lipton’s fieldwork in Peru was made possible through a University of Texas at Austin Thematic Fellowship, a David Boren fellowship, a National Science Foundation Dissertation Improvement Grant (NSF #0117806), and a Mellon Foundation Summer Research Award. Sincere gratitude is extended to people of the communities of Ancash who participated in this study. In addition, a profound thank you to the many individuals who assisted, encouraged, and informed throughout the duration of the project, including: Hector Abignal, Roberto Arevalo, Alton Byers, Pedro Camacho, Asunción Cano, Juan Carlos Castro, Jose Carrasco, Lorenzo Champa, Maria Victoria Chavez, Doña Coti, Hildegardo Cordova, Brandie Fariss, Jesus Gomez, Oswaldo Gonzáles de Paz, Blanca León, Carlos Meza, Nelson Santillain, Karen Price, Jorge Recharte, Hugo Romero, Vidal Rondan, Pablo Tadeo, Willy Tamayo, Mirriam Torres, Felix Valverde, Selwyn Valverde, Mario Villanueva, Marco Zapata. References Abbott, M. B., Wolfe, B. B., Wolfe, A. P., Seltzer, G. O., Aravena, R., Mark, B. G., Polissar, P. J., Rodbell, D. T., Rowe, H. D., and Vuille, M.: 2003, ‘Holocene Paleohydrology and Glacial History of the Central Andes using Multiproxy Lake Sediment Studies’, Palaeogeogr. Palaeoclim. Palaeoecol 194, 123–138. Adams, W. M.: 2003, ‘Managing Tragedies: Understanding Conflict over Common Pool Resources’, Science 302, 1915–1916. Adger, W. N.: 1999, ‘Social Vulnerability to Climate Change and Extremes in Coastal Vietnam’, World Develop. 27, 249–269. Adger, W. N.: 2000, ‘Institutional Adaptation to Environmental Risk Under the Transition in Vietnam’, Annals Assoc. Amer. Geogr 90, 738–758. Adger, W. N.: 2003, ‘Social Capital, Collective Action, and Adaptation to Climate Change’, Economic Geogr 79, 387–404. Allen, C. J.: 1988, The Hold Life has: Coca and Cultural Identity in an Andean Community, Washington D.C., Smithsonian Press. Ames, A., Muñoz, G., Verastegui, J., Vigil, R., Zamora, M., and Zapata, M.: 1989, Glacier Inventory of Peru, Volume 1. Hidrandina S. A. Unidad de Glaciologia e Hidrologia. Araújo, M. B., Cabeza, M., Thuiller, W., Hannah, L., and Williams, P. H.: 2004, ‘Would Climate Change Drive Species out of Reserves? An Assessment of Existing Reserve-Selection Methods’, Global Change Biol. 10, 1618–1626. Armenteras, D., Gast, F., and Villareal, H.: 2003, ‘Andean Forest Fragmentation and the Representativeness of Protected Natural Areas in the Eastern Andes, Colombia’, Biol. Conservation 113, 245–256.


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