An Initial Technology Roadmap for Home Automation: Home and ...

An Initial Technology Roadmap for Home Automation: Home and Personal Life Management

A dissertation presented by Mary Tom Bsc(Eng), Grad. Dip(Comp Eng), Master of Computing(Research) to The Discipline of Information Systems in fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy

Queensland University of Technology April 2010

©2010 - Mary Tom

All rights reserved.

Keywords Home Automation, Technology Roadmap, Family System, Scenario Technique, Home Information Management, Home Information Service, eHome, UbiHoPe, Ubiquitous Intelligence, Strategic Planning, Family Process, Family Life Cycle.

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An Initial Technology Roadmap for Home Automation: Home and Personal Life Management

Mary Tom Supervisor: Assoc. Professor Joaquin Sitte

Abstract Home Automation (HA) has emerged as a prominent field for researchers and investors confronting the challenge of penetrating the average home user market with products and services emerging from technology based vision. In spite of many technology contributions, there is a latent demand for affordable and pragmatic assistive technologies for pro-active handling of complex lifestyle related problems faced by home users. This study has pioneered to develop an Initial Technology Roadmap for HA (ITRHA) that formulates a need based vision of 10-15 years, identifying market, product and technology investment opportunities, focusing on those aspects of HA contributing to efficient management of home and personal life. The concept of Family Life Cycle is developed to understand the temporal needs of family. In order to formally describe a coherent set of family processes, their relationships, and interaction with external elements, a reference model named Family System is established that identifies External Entities, 7 major Family Processes, and 7 subsystems-Finance, Meals, Health, Education, Career, Housing, and Socialisation. Analysis of these subsystems reveals Soft, Hard and Hybrid processes. Rectifying the lack of formal methods for eliciting future user requirements and reassessing evolving market needs, this study has developed a novel method called Requirement Elicitation of Future Users by Systems Scenario (REFUSS), integrating process modelling, and scenario technique within the framework of roadmapping. The REFUSS is used to systematically derive process automation needs relating the process knowledge to future user characteristics identified from scenarios created to visualise different futures with richly detailed information on lifestyle trends thus enabling learning about the future requirements. Revealing an addressable market size estimate of billions of dollars per annum this research has developed innovative ideas on software based products including Document Management Systems facilitating automated collection, easy retrieval of all documents, Information Management System automating information services and Ubiquitous Intelligent System empowering the highly mobile home users with ambient intelligence. Other product iv

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ideas include robotic devices of versatile Kitchen Hand and Cleaner Arm that can be time saving. Materialisation of these products require technology investment initiating further research in areas of data extraction, and information integration as well as manipulation and perception, sensor actuator system, tactile sensing, odour detection, and robotic controller. This study recommends new policies on electronic data delivery from service providers as well as new standards on XML based document structure and format.

Contents Title Page . . . . . . . . . . . . . Keywords . . . . . . . . . . . . . Abstract . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Table of Contents . . . . . . . . . List of Figures . . . . . . . . . . List of Tables . . . . . . . . . . . Citations to Previously Published Statement of Original Authorship Acknowledgments . . . . . . . . . Dedication . . . . . . . . . . . . .

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1 Introduction 1.1 Motivation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1.1 Factors Setting Lifestyle Trends . . . Social Factors . . . . . . . . . . . . . Economical Factors . . . . . . . . . . Environmental and Political Factors Technological Factors . . . . . . . . 1.1.2 Lifestyle Related Problems . . . . . 1.2 Problem Definition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 Research Objective . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4 Approach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 Contributions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.6 Thesis Structure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

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2 Literature Review 2.1 Overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 Three Distinct Visions On Home Automation . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2.1 Computerised Home and Kitchen . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2.2 “Intelligent Home” with Intelligent Appliances . . . . . . 2.2.3 “Interactive Home” . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2.4 Outcome of Earlier Visions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 Current State of Home Automation and Review of Developments 2.3.1 Recent Developments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . vi

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2.3.2 Project Failures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3.3 Review of Products and Services . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Technologies for Domestic Environment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4.1 Overview of ICT use at home . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4.2 Analysis of Home Environment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ”Living Space” Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ”Networked Home” . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4.3 Studies on Working Parents . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Lessons To Learn . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5.1 Industry Perspective of HA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5.2 User Perspective of HA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5.3 HA in Need of a Technology Roadmap . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Technology Roadmapping and Scenario . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.6.1 Origins of Technology Roadmapping . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.6.2 Roadmapping Process . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Initiation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Roadmap Implementation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Assessment of Roadmap . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.6.3 Taxonomy of Roadmaps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Product-Technology Roadmaps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Product-Market Roadmap . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Technology-Product Roadmap . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Science roadmaps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.6.4 Benefits of Roadmapping and Current Problems with Roadmapping Process . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Tangible Benefits . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Intangible Benefits . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . The roadmap document . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Current Problems with Roadmapping . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.6.5 Scenarios . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.6.6 Overview of Scenario . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.6.7 Use of scenarios in roadmapping . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.6.8 Method of building scenario . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Intelligence, Context and Ubiquitous Computing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.7.1 Intelligence . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.7.2 Context . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.7.3 Ubiquitous Computing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Chapter Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

3 Research Method 3.1 Research Methodology . . . . . 3.1.1 Data Collection . . . . . 3.1.2 Analysis . . . . . . . . . 3.1.3 Reliability and Validity

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3.2 3.3

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Research Design and Implementation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Identification of Market and Market Needs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.3.1 System Modelling and Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Process Modelling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Family System Reference Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Use Case Diagram and Activity Diagram . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.3.2 Scenarios . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Market Drivers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.3.3 Derivation of Process Automation Needs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Requirement Elicitation of Future Users by Systems Scenarios (REFUSS) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Identification of Potential Products and Services . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.4.1 Development of a Conceptual Framework and Architecture for Home Information Management . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . eHome model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.4.2 Derivation of other product ideas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Investigation of Technology Needs and Technology Investment Strategies . . 3.5.1 Technology Requirements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Evaluation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Chapter Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

4 Family System Reference Model 4.1 Family Focus . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.1.1 Family . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.1.2 Family Life Cycle . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2 Family System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Interaction of Family System with External Entities . . . 4.2.1 Family System Processes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Managing Finance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Planning and Preparing Meals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Family Health Care . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Supporting Formal Education . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Household Maintenance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Engaging In Occupation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Recreation and Social Life Maintenance . . . . . . . . . . 4.3 Subsystems Within The Family System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.3.1 Finance Subsystem . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Financial Planning . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Budgeting . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Account Keeping . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Payment Scheduling and Monitoring of Expenses . . . . . 4.3.2 Health Subsystem . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Monitoring and Control of Diet and Exercise . . . . . . . Obtaining consultation and undergoing medical treatment Collecting and storing health records . . . . . . . . . . . .

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Monitoring health check parameters . . . . . . . . . . . Education Subsystem . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Obtaining Admission . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Procuring Materials . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Attending School Activities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Paying Fees . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Monitoring Academic Progress . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.3.4 Housing and Transport Subsystem . . . . . . . . . . . . Purchasing Equipment and Vehicle/s . . . . . . . . . . . Organising and Maintaining Insurance . . . . . . . . . . Coordinating and performing cleaning and repair . . . . Obtaining and Maintaining Utility Services . . . . . . . 4.3.5 Career Subsystem . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.3.6 Recreation and Socialization Subsystem . . . . . . . . . Recreation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Socialisation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Meals Subsystem . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.4.1 User View of an Envisaged Meals Subsystem . . . . . . 4.4.2 Schedule Meals for a Week . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.4.3 Select Menu and Recipes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.4.4 Estimate cost and Prepare Grocery Purchase List . . . 4.4.5 Update Inventory . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.4.6 Tasks Requiring Physical and Intellectual Work . . . . . Study of Analysis Results Depicted in Family System Reference 4.5.1 Information Management and Soft Processes . . . . . . 4.5.2 Mobile Family and Home Users . . . . . . . . . . . . . . User Ubiquity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Need for Ubiquitous Intelligence and Computing . . . . Chapter Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.3.3

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5 Scenario Based Future User Requirements Elicitation 5.1 Process Definition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.1.1 Identification of Process Attributes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.2 User Definition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.3 Derivation of Future User Characteristics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.3.1 Scenario Development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Driving Forces . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.4 Identification of Processes for Automation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.4.1 Derivation of Demanding Process Attributes . . . . . . . . . 5.4.2 Processes to be Automated . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.5 Application To Home Automation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.5.1 Creation of Home Lifestyle Scenarios . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.5.2 Three Scenarios . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Scenario 1: Automated Home Supporting lower cost of living Scenario 2: Leisure Loving Busy Families and Householders .

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Scenario 3: Enlightened Hardworking Society Promoting Sustainability133 Automation Needs For a Society Following Scenario Two Lifestyle . 134 Derivation of User Characteristics and Process Attributes . . . . . . 134 Derivation of Processes for Automation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 135 Chapter Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 138

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6 Conceptual Framework For Home Information Management 140 6.1 Automated Services . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 141 6.1.1 Data Collection and Storage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 143 Taxonomy of Data Sources . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 143 Automated Communication . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145 6.1.2 Information Service . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 146 6.1.3 Knowledge Service . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 147 Example Services . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 148 6.1.4 Intelligence Service . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149 Messaging . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 150 Flexibility or Overriding facility . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 151 6.2 Ubiquitous Intelligence System for Home and Personal Life Management (UbiHoPe) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 152 6.2.1 eHome the Virtual Home . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 153 6.2.2 Point Of Sale Terminal (POST) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 154 6.2.3 Wearable computing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 154 6.2.4 Systems of External Entities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 155 6.3 eHome Architecture and Functions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 155 6.3.1 Technical Layers of eHome . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 156 Physical Layer . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 156 Middleware Layer . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 157 Knowledge Base . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 157 Inference Engine . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 158 Services Manager . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 158 Access Control . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 158 Server Layer . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 159 6.3.2 Unique Authentication and Verification . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 159 6.4 Deployment of UbiHoPe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160 6.4.1 Data Transfer and Maintenance Issues . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 161 6.4.2 eHome as a Product . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163 6.4.3 eHome as a Service . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163 6.5 Chapter Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 164 7 Innovative Product Ideas and Investment Opportunities 7.1 Target Market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.2 Potential Products and Services . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.2.1 Software Based Products and Services . . . . . . . . . . . . . Potential Software Products . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Software Service: Home Information Service Provider (HISP)

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7.2.2 7.2.3

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7.6 7.7

Electromechanical Devices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Robotic Devices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Kitchen Hand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Robotic Cleaner Arm . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.2.4 Performance Requirements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Technology Needs and Current Technology Limitations for Development of Software Based Products . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.3.1 Technology Needs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Electronic Document Management . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Data Extraction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Information Integration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.3.2 Limitations of Current Technology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Problems with Current Data Extraction Methods . . . . . . . . . . . Problems with Information Integration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Technology Needs and Limitations For Development of Robotic Devices . . 7.4.1 Technology Needs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Manipulation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Perception . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Adaptability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Training . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Safety . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.4.2 Adaptive Robotic Controller . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.4.3 Task Specific Algorithms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.4.4 Current Technology Limitations for Developing Kitchen Hand . . . . Implementation Plan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.5.1 Design and development using existing technology . . . . . . . . . . Development of Robotic Devices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.5.2 Research and investment in new technology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Technology Investment for Software based Products . . . . . . . . . Technology Investment for Robotic devices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.5.3 Development and implementation of policies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Availability and Accessibility . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.5.4 Development and implementation of standards . . . . . . . . . . . . Roadmap Validation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Chapter Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

8 Conclusion 8.1 Contributions . . . . . . . 8.2 Validity . . . . . . . . . . 8.3 Strengths of Contributions 8.4 Extensions . . . . . . . . .

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171 173 174 175 176 177 177 178 179 180 181 181 183 183 184 184 184 185 186 186 186 187 187 188 189 190 192 192 193 195 195 196 196 198 199 199 201 202 203

A Communication Between Family and Education Service Provider

204

B Abbreviations

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Contents

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C Definitions 208 C.1 Definitions From Chapter 4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 208 C.2 Definitions From Chapter 5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 209 C.3 Definitions From Chapter 6 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 210 References

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List of Figures 2.1

2.2

Generic Structure of a Product Technology Roadmap Matrix. Source: adapted from Kostoff and Schaller “Science And Technology Roadmaps” IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, Vol 48(2), 2001 . . . . . . . . . . . . . Transformation of Data to Intelligence . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

50 56

3.1 3.2

Steps In Research Method . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Symbols Used In Diagrams of Family System Reference Model . . . . . . .

65 67

4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.9 4.10 4.11 4.12 4.13 4.14

Family Life Cycle: Different Phases and Prominent Responsibilities Phase . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Interaction of Family System with External Entities . . . . . . . . Subsystems Within Family System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Processes Within Finance Subsystem . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Processes Within Health Subsystem . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Processes Within Education Subsystem . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Processes Within Housing and Transport Subsystem . . . . . . . . Processes Within Meals Subsystem . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . User View of Meals Subsystem . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Select Meal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Select Menu and Recipes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Prepare Grocery Purchase List . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Maintain Inventory . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Ubiquity of Home User . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

in Each . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

78 83 87 90 93 96 100 105 106 107 108 109 111 113

5.1 5.2 5.3

Derivation of Processes for Automation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Impact / Predictability Matrix . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Scenarios . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

126 129 132

6.1 6.2

Architecture For UbiHoPe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Technical Layers of e-Home . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

153 156

7.1 7.2

Roadmap Matrix for Development of Software based Products . . . . . . . Roadmap Matrix for Implementation of Robotic Devices . . . . . . . . . . .

191 194

A.1 Communication between Family and Education Provider . . . . . . . . . . .

205

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List of Tables 5.1 5.2 5.3

Future Projections: Lifestyle in 2020 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Process Attributes and Operational Requirements) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Processes Having Demanding Process Attribute(DPA) . . . . . . . . . . . .

131 136 137

6.1 6.2

Details of Input Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Information on Bill Payments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

144 148

7.1

Target Market Segment for Automation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

167

xiv

Citations to Previously Published Work

Large portions of Chapter 2 have appeared in the following paper: “Home Automation: Technology Push and Real User Needs”, Mary Tom and Joaquin Sitte, Chapter in Book: Berichte zum Generic-Management, Editor: Petra Winzer (Hrsg), Publisher: Schaker Verlag (2006);

Large portions of Chapter 4 have appeared in the following paper “Family System: A Reference Model for Developing Home Automation Applications”, Mary Tom and Joaquin Sitte, Published in Proceedings of IEEE International Conference on Systems Man and Cybernetics, 2006 Large portions of Chapter 5 have appeared in the following paper “Future User Requirement Elicitation for Technology Investment: A Formal Approach”, Mary Tom and Joaquin Sitte, Published in Proceedings of the IEEE International Conference on Systems Man and Cybernetics, 2009

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Statement of Original Authorship The work contained in this thesis has not been previously submitted to meet requirements for an award at this or any other higher education institution. To the best of my knowledge and belief, the thesis contains no material previously published or written by another person except where due reference is made. Signed: ——————————————————– Date: ——————————————————–

xvi

Acknowledgments I am pleased to express my sincere gratitude to Associate Professor Joaquin Sitte for his guidance, valuable comments, and encouragement. I take this opportunity to thank Dr. Yue Xu for her valuable comments and assistance.

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Dedicated to my daughter Minna, and my son Christin.

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Chapter 1

Introduction “A roadmap becomes the inventory of possibilities for a particular field, thus stimulating more targeted investigations” (Galvin, 2004). Home Automation (HA) has emerged as a prominent field for researchers and investors. Nevertheless, many products and services offered by HA are yet to reach the average home user. In many cases technology push has overshadowed sound evaluation of actual user needs. This has led to many unsuccessful ventures and project failures (Wacks, 2001). Review of past developments reveals that the HA Industry needs well-founded user requirement analysis, a clearly defined scope and a long-term goal in order to exploit the large market potential. It is essential for the HA Industry to formulate strategic plans based on the “big picture” of family home life and realistic user needs. The HA industry requires a technology roadmap for formulating industry level strategic plans with needs-based futuristic vision. The aim of this study is to address the above mentioned problems faced by the HA industry by developing an Initial Technology Roadmap for Home Automation (ITRHA). This can be used to identify market needs, innovative product ideas to align with market needs, technology needs for product development and technology investment opportunities. A systemic approach has not been followed in the past developments in HA; due to this reason a full system view is unavailable. This research aims to formulate a theoretical foundation by developing a reference model named Family System for defining the scope and boundaries of the roadmap, and a formal method for future user requirement elicitation. These objectives are discussed in detail in Section 1.3. The home remains a key component in shaping human lifestyle at the start of 1

Chapter 1: Introduction

2

the second millennium. Blessed by technology, homes are facilitated with clean lighting, smoke-free and ashless kitchens, telephones to communicate with someone anywhere in the globe, and seamless water supply. While standardisation of electric power supply in the early twentieth century enabled these facilities, the industrial revolution and shortage of labour force for household work prompted automation of labour intensive tasks such as washing clothes, and dishwashing. Continued progress in integrated circuit technology and advancements in microprocessor systems initiated ideas on inter-connectivity and remote control of appliances in the late 1980s. During the first half of the 1990s, the advent of broadband enabling high speed data communication, and PCs with Internet facility generated great expectations on the possible use of Information and Communications Technology (ICT) at home. These developments created a vision of homes having remote controlled appliances and services of virtual reality games, video-on-demand, and interactive advertising. Following this vision, the main focus of Home Automation (HA) has been home networking and automatic and/or remote control of home appliances. As a result of this, the scope of the recent past developments in the HA industry has been mainly limited to four areas: • Building environmental control – Heating, Ventilation, Air Conditioning (HVAC) • Security and lighting • Home Networking • Entertainment A Google search for the term “Home Network” yields a result of 5,540,000 sites revealing the proliferation of effort in home networking and related technologies. The driving force of technology is not sufficient to develop products with desirable features that meet or stimulate consumer demand. Tangible and intangible benefits that can be obtained by interconnection and remote control of existing home appliances are not appealing to average home users, considering the comparatively high costs involved. As the current focus of HA fails to obtain a sustainable market, what can be the focus of HA? Residential buildings are reasonably facilitated, with many technology applications providing convenience to home users. There is a proliferation of electromechanical devices automating individual tasks such as grinding, blending, coffee making, mixing, mincing, pepper cracking, hair drying, massaging and so on. From this point of view, it seems


3

HA has reached saturation by achieving full potential. Or, is the HA industry short of innovative ideas and futuristic vision? Under these circumstances it is worth spending time and effort to create a new perspective by exploring opportunities for new directions.

1.1

Motivation This research is motivated by the need for a strategic plan, based on realistic user

requirement analysis, that can be followed by the HA industry for technology investment in product development. There should be an applicable and simple method that is formally correct to elicit future user requirements. As the strategic planning is for a long term, there should be a method for reviewing and updating the formulated plan to adjust for temporal variations. It is inevitable to view HA in the context of lifestyle followed by contemporary families. The complexity of family life has increased due to lifestyle and environmental changes. There are a number of factors that play a major role in setting new lifestyle trends, thus creating added complexity to everyday life.

1.1.1

Factors Setting Lifestyle Trends The prominent factors responsible for the current lifestyle can be categorised as

social, economic, environmental, and technological. These are discussed in the following sections. Social Factors During the past quarter of a century, there have been substantial changes in some social aspects; these changes have highly impacted on contemporary lifestyles. A selection of these prominent factors is briefly discussed below with supporting statistical data. This study mainly refers to statistical data from three countries, Australia, US and UK, for reasons of easy accessibility and availability of reliable data. • Dual Income Families More than 57 per cent of all Australian families with children aged below 15 years have both parents working (Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2003), while in UK this figure is 68 per cent (Walling, 2005). In US dual income families with children under


4

18 years exceeds 62 per cent of all American families (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2008). During the 10 years prior to 2004 there was an 8 per cent increase in dual income families in U.K (Walling, 2005). In US the number of working women is expected to increase by 10.9 per cent between 2004 and 2014 (National Committee on Pay Equity, 2006). • Women in Professional Occupations The participation of women in professional occupations such as engineers, pharmacists, lawyers, and technical writers increased by more than 10 per cent in the last two decades in US (National Committee on Pay Equity, 2006). In 2005, 73 per cent of working women had white collar jobs in US while 56.3 per cent of workforce in the occupational category is held by women. A 21.2 per cent increase in participation of women in professional occupations is expected from 2004 to 2014 (National Committee on Pay Equity, 2006). There was an 8 per cent increase in women working in professional occupations in Australia between 1987 and 2004 while there was a decrease in the percentage of women undertaking less skilled occupations (Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2006c). • Employed Single Parent Families and Aging Population Another trend setting social factor is the participation of single parents in paid employment. There was a 12 per cent increase in employment of single parents in UK during the 10 years leading to 2004 (Walling, 2005). From the various census data it is found that US has around 60 million people over 60 years old and in the UK this figure is 12 million (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2008b; Office for National Statistics, 2008). The percentage of dual income families and aging population is forecasted to be gradually increasing for the next few decades. Economical Factors Managing household finance has become a complex and critical task requiring strategic planning, periodic reviews, careful budgeting and proper accounting. A number of factors contributing to the complexity are listed below: • Easily available credit facility


5

• Increase in credit card debt • Increasing cost of living • Increase in cost of education • Prolonged period of formal education • Increasing essential services such as internet, mobile phone, and insurance. The cost of child care in dual income families consumes a substantial portion of the income. It is estimated that in US the cost of center-based child care for two children could exceed 37 per cent of a single parent’s earnings (National Committee on Pay Equity, 2006). The cost of housing has increased substantially during the recent decades. In 2003 to 2004, 74 per cent of total liabilities of middle wealth households in Australia is home loan; 2–3 per cent is credit card debt, 1 per cent is study loan and 3.6 per cent is vehicle purchase loan (Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2006a). Environmental and Political Factors Household lifestyle is affected by environmental factors, many of which are beyond the control of individual households. Globalisation and growth of international corporations transform employment from national to international perspective; these factors create an expectation for families to be increasingly mobile. Resource shortages and the increasing cost of power, fuel, water and food are producing a global awareness on the consumption of resources. Increasing government spending on health is becoming a matter of concern for policy makers. The emergence of eCommerce is changing the nature of business to customer dealings. The category of face-to-face customer service is disappearing; these services are being replaced by web-based information processing and transaction services like on-line banking, on-line shopping, and on-line consultation, which transfer the work to the user. Technological Factors The past two decades have witnessed a big leap in the advancement of ICT which has revolutionised the way businesses and governments operate. There is a huge gap in the technologies available to these service providers and households. During the last two


6

decades these service providers have progressively moved from information management systems through enterprise systems to knowledge management systems. The households are yet to use an information management system other than amateur attempts at creating customised databases or spreadsheets. Advanced information and communication facilities such as cell phones, pagers, PDAs (Personal Digital Assistants), wireless Internet access devices, as well as traditional phones have removed the physical boundary between family life and work. These facilities have enabled an environment where work can occur anywhere at any time. Under these circumstances it is essential to differentiate the specific needs of the family home user from any householder. Following office automation, there is an increase in the quantity and volume of data received by families from external sources without a corresponding increase in the capacity to process this information in the home. Electronic data belonging to home users are stored, accumulated and used for planning and marketing purposes by various government agencies and commercial service providers. Reports produced from accumulated data on aspects such as health, finance, and education are either inaccessible or expensive for a home user to use for planning and decision support.

1.1.2

Lifestyle Related Problems The percentage increase in the number of working women and women in profes-

sional occupations sets many changes in lifestyle. These include the disappearance of a full-time housewife role, less time for household work, and increased involvement of women in purchase decisions. The lifestyle followed by contemporary families impacts upon many aspects of daily lives. A selection of these aspects is discussed below. • Food Habits and Diet-Related Problems Following a well-balanced diet suitable to all members of a family needs considerable effort and time. As the percentage of working couples increases, the tendency to depend on fast foods and other short cuts is increasing. These options are comparatively expensive and lead to an imbalanced diet. In 2001, the average US adult spent 42 per cent of total food expenditure on food away from home. It has been found that fast food consumption is associated with a diet high in energy and energy density, and low in essential micronutrient density (Bowman & Vinyard, 2004). More than one billion of the world population are overweight, with 300 million being clinically obese (World


7

Health Organization, 2007). While an estimated ¿180 billion is required to treat and prevent diabetes and its complications world wide during the year 2007, 30–40 per cent of the cases are diet related. • Financial Problems Highly fluctuating market trends, various borrowing facilities, easily available credit facilities, and evolving job opportunities make financial decisions critical. The data published as per the 2004 Survey of Consumer Finances reveal that 75 per cent of US families have some form of debt; the mortgage debt has increased by 54 per cent from year 2000 and bankruptcy rate increased by an average of 2.8 per cent per year between 2000 and 2006 (North Dakota State Data Center, 2007). The household debt of US households rose to 96 per cent of total disposable personal income. Households used 14 per cent of their income on paying off consumer debt and mortgage debt. In 2002 there were over 1.5 million bankruptcy filings from non-business or consumers in US (Jickling, 2003). • Increased Stress The findings of an ethnography study on the lifestyle followed by dual income families establish that working parents need to manage their time and activities in a very structured routine. Minor variations to this routine can be stressful and disappointing (M. K. Lee, Davidoff, Zimmerman, & Dey, 2006). Many times the working parents feel that they are lacking a sense of control over their own lives and they are forced to compromise the quality of their tasks. • Lack of Time Dual income families and employed single parent families are confronted with less time to manage matters related to their household, and children’s education. In Australia the average weekly working hours for men increased by 1.9 hours per week and for women increased by 1.7 hours between 1985 and 2005 (Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2006b). Women spent an average 2.7 hours per day on household activities and men spent 2.1 hours per day. Out of this 0.67 hours per day are spent on household management (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2008a). Following such a busy routine makes finding quality family time or leisure time difficult.


8

• Quality of Life The above listed factors indicate that the lifestyle changes experienced by householders during the last two decades cause added dynamism, complexity and compromise of the desired quality of life. A workshop conducted on quality of life concluded that the domains of life influencing quality of life are “intimate relations, health, emotional well being, financial and material circumstances, productive activity, safety, and place in the community” (Weston, 1999). Most of the lifestyle changes are due to external factors that are out of the householders’ control; however they are forced to manage their lives within these constraints. In view of the above, this research has established that HA industry needs a Technology Roadmap to formulate a needs-based vision of typically 10–15 years that can identify market, market needs, products, and technology investment opportunities. A model based analysis can provide theoretically founded formal method to elicit user requirements. User requirements are influenced by a large number of factors. Scenarios provide a framework to build conceivable futures that can be used to learn future variations to home user requirements. Systematic integration of the system model and scenarios creates a generalised method that is reusable. Even though integration of scenario technique with roadmapping is not widely practiced, this novel method is more effective to create the futuristic vision and alternative paths to reach that vision, with a causality for future review.

1.2

Problem Definition In terms of HA industry and its users, the previous sections reveal two interesting

sides of the current state of affairs. Primarily, the HA industry is engaged in developments that are not boosting enough market demand. Secondly, there is a potential market with latent demand for technology solutions that are affordable and pragmatic. The HA industry is faced with some unique and difficult situations as briefly discussed earlier. There are some deeper issues and underlying problems causing this situation and its unwanted consequences. The major problem is that the industry lacks formal methods to systematically derive the market needs to exploit the available market potential. This problem is intensified by the wide range of products based on many technology areas and with a very diverse user base. The industry has been working around these problems by


9

using trial and error methods to develop and market new products following a technology based vision. The market consists of home users having very diverse characteristics demographically, socially, culturally and economically. Researchers using user-involved methods to derive user needs have achieved very limited results exposing only a partial image of the whole picture. The diversity, uniqueness and distinctive nature of home users disallow a group think and collective request or demand originating from the users. Traditionally, users actively involve in user requirement analysis where the product/service to be developed is an essential component for the primary activity of the users. In this case, the home users see home as a resting place to relax; this is not the place of primary activity. This excludes people who use their homes for business purposes or operate from a home office. However, home users are confronted with many lifestyle related problems that are difficult to handle without technology assistance, resulting in a latent demand. Simultaneously, the users generally lack enough technical knowledge or insight to understand what they are missing. The above mentioned artifacts illustrate two divergent entities – the industry and the market – who cannot benefit each other by following the current practices. The first requirement is a formal method that can be used by the HA industry to identify realistic market needs. The home users’ needs vary, the variations being dependent on a large set of changing environmental factors. A new product development may require technology investment thus demanding long-term planning. Therefore, the next important problem to solve is to account for the variations in home user needs in a realistic manner with a futuristic view that can enable strategic planning. HA industry is a conglomerate of many partners, and therefore a global perspective is required. The problems discussed above highlight the issues confronted by the HA industry to succeed by catering to the market needs. The purpose of this thesis is to develop a technology roadmap with well-defined methods to identify market needs and future variations. This is achieved by answering the questions raised below. 1. What are the market segments and potential market size? 2. What methods can be used by the industry to derive market needs in a reliable way? 3. How can we use the technology to assist home users to reduce the impact of lifestyle


10

related problems, or marginalise the problems by effectively managing their lives? 4. How can the HA industry perceive future market needs to cater for the dynamic lifestyle of users? 5. Is there any technology for developing such products and services? What are the technology gaps? 6. What strategies can be used in planning investment in research and development activities?

1.3

Research Objective The facts listed above establish that the HA industry is in need of a Technology

Roadmap that can guide technology investments leading to products and services that can address some of the problems identified in Section 1.1. Therefore this study has chosen the development of a technology roadmap as a means of finding answers to the questions raised in Section 1.2. The aim of this thesis is to produce an Initial Technology Roadmap for Home Automation (ITRHA) that can uncover future market needs, derive products and services to meet the market needs, identify technology investment need for the product development, and stimulate further work in research and development. Technology roadmaps have been used in several industries to guide the development of technology. The most significant is the International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors (Allan et al., 2002). Technology Roadmapping is needs-based strategic planning to identify market needs, technology gaps and to leverage technology investments with a long-term vision of typically 10 to 15 years (Bray & Garcia, 2004; Kostoff & Schaller, 2001). “Roadmaps communicate visions, attract resources from business and government, stimulate investigations, and monitor progress” (Galvin, 1998). A full discussion on technology roadmapping is provided in Section 2.6 of this thesis. Identification of future market needs is the primary step in roadmapping; this remains one of the major problems faced by the HA industry. Therefore, it is required to establish a theoretical foundation and develop a formalised method for future user requirement elicitation. An applicable method has to be within a high level framework that can abstract the diversity of user characteristics. This method should be simple enough for industry partners to apply correctly.


11

Roadmap implementation involves re-assessment of the technology investment plan and incremental development to meet the varying market needs over a longer time span. The development of a strategic plan for technology investment should be based on reasonable factors or methods allowing such review and update. Again, this study aims to develop a formal method to understand variations to future user requirements as a function of lifestyle related factors. As part of developing the ITRHA this study aims to achieve the following objectives. 1. Develop a system model for providing a theoretically founded systemic view and holistic approach for HA 2. Develop a formalised method for future user requirement elicitation. 3. Identify future market needs 4. Generate innovative products ideas to meet the identified market needs 5. Investigate the technology investment needs to materialise the proposed products ideas. The goal of this study is to provide the HA industry a new perspective and a new direction to follow. The scope of HA is to be extended from building related facilities to essential products and services reaching average home users, catering all aspects of personal life.

1.4

Approach The approach used to resolve the questions raised in Section 1.2 and achieve the

objectives described in Section 1.3 are detailed in this section. This study has developed terminology for expressing user and process related details. Definitions of all terms mentioned in this section are provided in Sections 4.2, 5.1, and 5.2. The three main constituents of the ITRHA to be developed as part of this study are 1. Market needs


12

2. Product ideas to satisfy the identified market needs 3. Technology investment needs There are no stipulated standardised procedures to follow in the roadmapping process used to develop a roadmap. This study has devised a novel method that integrates business process modelling and scenario technique within the framework of roadmapping. This work has identified the market needs using the newly devised method of Requirement Elicitation for Future Users by Systems Scenarios (REFUSS). Based on the identified market needs, this research has identified a number of innovative product ideas and has investigated technology investment opportunities. Procedures followed in this study to complete the development of the ITRHA are discussed below. This study has followed a model based approach; the author has applied existing modelling technique with extensions and has devised new methods as required. • Family Life Cycle This research has developed the concept of a Family Life Cycle to understand temporal variations in Family responsibilities and thus segregate market segments. • Development of a Reference Model As a systemic approach has not been followed so far, the field of HA lacks a system model. A reference model named Family System is developed to describe a coherent set of Family Processes, their input/output and interactions with External Entities. The Family Processes are grouped into seven subsystems: Finance, Meals, Health, Education, Career, Housing and Transport, and Socialisation and Entertainment. Further analysis is conducted to understand the processes within each of the subsystems, the inputs required for each process and the outputs produced. The system model is developed following Process Modelling approach. Data Flow Diagram (DFD) following the Gane and Sarson symbol set is used for communicating the model as this provides the most suitable technique to depict the whole system, its boundary, processes and interaction with external systems (Valacich, George, & Hoffer, 2001; Shelly, Cashman, & Rosenblatt, 2006). To suit the requirement in this study, the author has extended the symbol set for DFDs, originally developed for modelling information systems, by including Resource flow, Resource store, Hard Process, and Hybrid Process.


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Detailed analysis of Meals Subsystem is carried out to obtain a dynamic view of the processes. This research has used business process modelling technique following the Eriksson-Penker Business Extension of UML activity diagrams for this purpose (Eriksson & Penker, 2000). • Identification of Automation Needs A new method named Requirement Elicitation for Future Users by Systems Scenarios (REFUSS) is developed as part of this study to relate the process knowledge obtained from the system model with future user lifestyle related information from scenario technique for deriving future market needs for strategic technology investment planning. This study has applied scenario technique to understand plausible future lifestyle of home users and the market drivers influencing these lifestyles. Van der Heijden’s approach is followed in developing scenarios (Heijden, 2005). Three scenarios developed provide insight into plausible variations to the current lifestyle trend in case of unexpected twists in some of the driving forces. Automation needs are identified by deriving the list of processes having Demanding Process Attributes for the home users with User Characteristics related to the most likely scenario. • Identification of Potential Products and Services A conceptual framework named Ubiquitous Intelligence System for Home and Personal Life Management (UbiHoPe) is developed to understand the architectural components required for automating the identified Soft Processes. A conceptual model named eHome is the central unit of UbiHoPe facilitating the automation. Robotic devices are proposed for automating Hybrid Processes. • Proposal for Technology Investments Technology gaps are identified based on the knowledge of technology requirements for the envisaged products and services and current technology facility. Technology investment suggestions for research and development are formulated on the basis of the identified technology gaps.


1.5

14

Contributions The major contribution from this study is the Initial Technology Roadmap for

Home Automation (ITRHA) developed as part of this work. There are many benefits for an industry or organisation from a technology roadmap. The Home Automation (HA) industry lacks a technology roadmap; an internet search using the key words “Home automation roadmap” produces a mere 6 results that are not related to a roadmap. ITRHA consists of a number of newly developed concepts, models, methods, scenarios, addressable market size estimates, innovative ideas of products and services, policy guidelines and an implementation plan for materialising the product ideas. The roadmap provides information on market needs, potential market segments, requirement of new technical standards, and technology investment opportunities. This work expands the scope of the HA industry and outlines a plausible vision to pursue. The roadmap developed can be used as a reference document for further refinement and implementation. Contributions of this study include: 1. An Integrated Method A new formal method for roadmapping is developed by systematically integrating roadmapping with scenario technique. 2. Family Life Cycle The concept of family life cycle developed can be used to identify market segments based on user needs. 3. Family System Reference Model The Family System reference model is used to establish a theoretical foundation for developments in HA by defining context, scope, and boundaries, and providing a full system view encompassing all aspects of home life. The seven subsystems and the processes within each of the subsystems identified reveal the amount information processing involved and the importance of home information management, and segregates labour intensive tasks. This reference model exposes the interaction of a family with external sources, thus exposing the communication needs and volume of information used. The identified processes are very generic and are essentially required in daily life of any family and or individual, thus applicable in wider context irrespective of demo-


15

graphic and cultural differences. The Family System remedies the lack of a systemic view in HA. 4. Requirement Elicitation for Future Users by Systems Scenarios (REFUSS) A new method is developed that can be used to systematically and formally relate information about a system and its processes to user specific information derived from current and future lifestyles. This new method rectifies the lack of applicable formal methods to identify future market needs in HA. 5. Scenarios Three scenarios are created based on the information from the analysis of a large number of factors influencing home user lifestyle. The scenarios not only reveal future lifestyle trends, they provide a framework for periodic monitoring, review and reassessment of lifestyle trends to understand home user needs. 6. UbiHoPe and eHome A conceptual framework is developed depicting the architecture, components and functionalities of a potential system that can automate information management services identified within Family System. The UbiHoPe reveals requirement of components, data, policies and standards for realising the vision. The eHome model is used to identify the technical components required for a system supporting home information management services. 7. Innovative Ideas of Products and Product Areas This research has generated original product ideas for the robotic devices, Kitchen Hand and Cleaner Arm. This research has identified a new products and services area of Home Information Management. Within this area a number of software based product concepts are developed. These include Electronic Document Management System, Ubiquitous Intelligent System for Home and Personal Life Management with add on modules for managing Diet, Finance, Health, Education, Housing and Transport. This study has also suggested the concept of a Home Information Service Provider (HISP) for managing information services of home users. 8. A New Perspective


16

A new perspective for HA is created by considering the ’Big Picture’ of family life, widening the scope of HA from building related facilities and task level automation. This study motivates the need to re-focus developments in HA to meet the requirements of busy families taking into account the mobile and dynamic nature of families. This study has formulated a new direction for HA developments by shifting to needsbased vision.

1.6

Thesis Structure This thesis is organised into eight chapters that logically build from the litera-

ture and deliver new concepts and models. The Chapters 4–7 forms part of the ITRHA document. Chapter 2 depicts the current state of the industry as well as reviews the past developments leading to the present state. This chapter discusses the developments that have occurred in HA by following three distinct technology based visions. Detailed study of past developments reveals that HA is an area that is highly influenced by technology push rather than by user demand. The literature review in Chapter 2 also gives insight to the lack of products with attractive features to meet the otherwise lucrative market. This study also discusses the reasons for many project failures and the existing proliferation of research and development efforts in home networking. This establishes that technology push alone is not enough to achieve substantial market, thus emphasizing the need for a balance between technology push and market pull. Chapter 2 also provides a detailed discussion on roadmapping and scenario technique. Technology Roadmapping is mostly used in industries and it is slowly migrating to universities. This section describes the origins of roadmapping, explains the generic steps of roadmapping process, classifies the roadmapping and discusses the assessment of roadmapping. This section also provides information on existing tools to support the roadmapping process. Scenario technique is discussed here and the section highlights the advantage of integrating roadmapping with scenario technique as a more effective novel method. The last section of Chapter 2 presents a brief overview of intelligence, ubiquitous computing, and context derivation as these concepts are applied in Chapter 6. Chapter 3 provides an overview of various types of research methods and identifies


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the qualitative method applied in this study that follows a mixed method approach. This chapter discusses the research design and implementation followed in this study leading to the development of the ITRHA. This chapter explains the customised steps of roadmapping integrating system modelling and scenario technique. This chapter discusses process modelling techniques used for developing the system model. The development of Impact/Predictability matrix to rank the influence factors and the use of scenario matrix to create scenarios are described in this chapter. Section 3.3.3 presents the scenario technique used to develop insight into future home user lifestyle. The future user needs for process automation are formally worked out using the method of REFUSS described in Section 3.3.3. Chapters 4 and 5 are the core of this thesis. Chapter 4 details the concept of Family Life Cycle, presents the Family System reference model, and the subsystems within the the Family System, and includes detailed analysis of subsystems within Family System and an elaborate analysis of Meals Subsystem. Sections 4.1 and 4.2 provide definition of terms. Chapter 5 presents the development of the new method REFUSS, and also demonstrates the application of REFUSS to derive the process automation needs. This chapter describes the scenario development, identifies factors influencing contemporary home lifestyle, discusses impact/predicatiblity matrix that ranks the influence factors, and presents the three scenarios depicting plausible future lifestyle of home users. Based on the processes identified and the process automation needs derived in previous chapters, Chapter 6 identifies a list of home information management related services. This chapter presents the conceptual framework of UbiHoPe with eHome that depicts the architectural components and system requirements for the automation of identified Soft Processes. Chapter 7 is a concise presentation of the roadmap design discussing the target market, potential products and technology needs. Roadmap matrices are presented here that provide a graphical representation of the target market, potential products and technology development along a time line. Section 7.3 provides a detailed discussion on technology needs, thus exposing opportunities for further research and development to leverage technology investment. Section 7.5 discusses an incremental development plan that can be followed for progressively transforming the product ideas into practical products and services. Policy requirements are discussed in Section 7.5.3 and potential standards required for envisaged


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products and services are discussed in Section 7.5.4. Chapter 8 concludes this thesis by providing a concise summary of findings from this study and highlighting the potentials of further research work that can be commenced following products ideas and technology needs revealed in this research work. This chapter also depicts the validity of the thesis based on the evaluation methods discussed in Chapter 3.

Chapter 2

Literature Review 2.1

Overview Developments in Home Automation have been greatly influenced by advancements

in Information and Communication Technology (ICT) made possible by microelectronic technology. The earlier visions have been predominantly based on the possibilities of what technology could do rather than the real needs of users and the resources available to home users in terms of time and money. This has led to many unsuccessful ventures such as Kitchen Computer, Screen Fridge, excessive time spent in standardisation of communication protocols, and project failures resulting in loss of investment and waste of resources (Nunes & Delgado, 1998; Wacks, 2001) . On the other hand, the home lifestyle is influenced by many external trend-setting factors and the contemporary society is confronted with many lifestyle related problems, which creates a latent demand for technology assistance. Overall, a lucrative market with the potential for strong growth still remains untapped. The study of past developments in HA establishes the need for a technology roadmap to guide strategic planning for technology investments. The main focus of HA has been automatic and / or remote control of home appliances. As a result of this, the scope of the past developments in Home Automation Industry has mainly been limited to four areas: • Building environmental control – Heating, Ventilation, Air Conditioning (HVAC) • Security and lighting • Home Networking 19

Chapter 2: Literature Review

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• Entertainment Three technology based visions, namely Computerised Home, “Intelligent Home” and “Interactive Home”, have influenced HA(Spicer, 2000; Skrzypczak, 1987; Garrett, 1990; Wells, 1995). In this study the author conducts a review of past developments following these visions and finds that there have been many project failures and unsuccessful product developments. This chapter analyses the technology based visions of the past and the outcome of those visions. The chapter also provides a home user perspective revealing contemporary lifestyle and related problems. Based on the evaluation of these outcomes, this study recommends the necessity for a user needs-based vision following a holistic approach. This chapter also establishes the need for a technology roadmap that can guide the HA industry in developing products and services meeting market needs and strategic planning for technology investment. As the goal of this thesis is to develop an initial technology roadmap for HA, this chapter provides a detailed discussion on technology roadmapping and brief overview of scenarios. In this chapter Section 2.2 presents three historically interesting visions, developments following these visions and the outcomes of these developments. Section 2.3.2 discusses some of the project failures in the past, then Section 2.3.3 conducts a review of the project failures and reveals underlying causes for the project failures. Section 2.3.1 depicts the products available at present and the current research and development activities. This section also discusses the popularity and issues involved in the use of home PCs. This section concludes by suggesting the appropriateness of formulating an industry level Technology Roadmap for HA and lists the various reasons to support the necessity of user needs-based vision. Section 2.6.1 provides a brief history of the origin and development of technology roadmapping. Section 2.6.2 describes the current practices of roadmapping process. This section also reveals the problems in applying the presently practiced roadmapping process in Home Automation. Section 2.6.3 provides a classification of technology roadmaps. A discussion on the benefits of roadmapping and the problems associated with current roadmapping process is provided in Section 2.6.4. The author points out the need for integrating roadmapping and scenarios. Section 2.6.5 describes the procedure for scenario technique.


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Section 2.7 conducts a brief overview of intelligence, ubiquitous computing, and context derivation. These concepts are applied in Chapter 6 for creating the conceptual framework of UbiHoPe.

2.2

Three Distinct Visions On Home Automation Advances in computing and communication technology have stimulated three dis-

tinguishable visions in the history of Home Automation during the last four decades. These technology based visions have led to further developments creating products and services both successful and unsuccessful. Continued advances in ICT created new expectations and some of the products based on earlier visions became obsolete.

2.2.1

Computerised Home and Kitchen In 1966, Jim Sutherland developed a machine known as “Electronic Computing

Home Operator” or ECHO IV that computerised many household tasks. ECHO IV was a home automation system assembled using a large number of electronic parts (Spicer, 2000). By 1968 Sutherland extended the system to store recipes, prepare shopping lists, keep track of family inventory, maintain home temperature, turn appliances on and off, predict the weather and act as a message center for family members to leave messages for each other.

2.2.2

“Intelligent Home” with Intelligent Appliances After two uneventful decades in the application of computing to Home Automation,

continued progress of Integrated Circuit technology and the emergence of microprocessor systems created a new wave of activities attempting to automate tasks around the home. Advancements in microprocessor systems influenced ideas on intelligent products and the inter-connectivity of appliances. During the late 1980s a futuristic vision of an “intelligent home” or “intelligent building” by 2010 was a central processor controlled home having applications such as storage and display of recipes, administration of shopping lists, display and re-direction of audio-visual messages, electronic bills and bill payment, video-on-demand and high quality audio. The vision was extended to Building Management – HVAC, security, safety, environmental control, and Remote control of appliances (Skrzypczak, 1987; Garrett, 1990).


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An interesting prediction was on the availability of a video monitor in the kitchen, either hanging on the wall or on the refrigerator door, to view or update the family calendar, display recipes, and administer shopping list.

2.2.3

“Interactive Home” During the first half of the 1990s, the advent of broadband allowing high speed data

communication, and PCs with Internet facility, generated great expectations on the possible use of ICT at home. This was followed by predictions on the availability of services such as virtual reality games, play-along games, video-on-demand (VoD), tele-shopping, interactive advertising and services (Wells, 1995). Video-on-Demand provides the user complete control over the session presentation, facilitating the user with full-function VCR (virtual VCR) capabilities including forward and reverse play, freeze, and random positioning. The possible deployment of FSN (Full Service Network) led to predictions on availability of video-conferencing services and high-resolution networked games. The FSN has the capacity to provide telephone services, Cable TV and two-way broadband data communications.

2.2.4

Outcome of Earlier Visions Motivated by the ECHO IV developed by Jim Sutherland, a year later in 1969

Neimann-Marcus marketed a “Kitchen Computer” to store recipes, priced at US $10,600, which was equivalent to the price of a suburban home at that time, with a user interface consisting of front panel switches (Spicer, 2000). The “Kitchen Computer” manufactured by Honeywell was advertised with the attractive feature of producing recipes using available ingredients, but the user needed to undertake a two-week course in a programming language called ‘BACK’. The “Kitchen Computer” was a total failure, because of its high price, the lack of attractive features, and most importantly the difficult user interface. The vision on “Intelligent Home” led to further work on achieving envisaged applications such as remote control of home appliances, and telemetering. Development of facilities and standards for both low and high speed communication, and home network for interconnecting devices within home as well as connecting to the external network, had been identified as the main goal to achieve for the vision to become a reality. Most of the investment made in home automation, by consortia and standards organisations, has been directed towards developing specifications for residential communi-


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cations network (Wacks, 2002a). The Consumer Electronics Association has been engaged in developing a series of standards for networking devices within the home for the last two decades (Williams, 2004). Many communication standards and protocols had been developed for structured wiring using twisted pair, coaxial cable, or Power Line Carrier. These include Home Bus System (HBS) in Japan, European Home Systems (EHS), BatiBus in France, EIB (European Installation Bus), and HomePNA (Home Phone Network Alliance). CEBus and LonTalk are protocols enabling interconnection of devices networked using any medium, including power lines, twisted pair, radio frequency (RF), infrared (IR), coaxial cable and fiber optics. These protocols facilitated central/remote controlled HVAC systems, sensor controlled lighting and centralised security systems. Other protocols developed include D2B in Holland and Home Audio/Video Interoperability (HAVi) to facilitate easy connection of different make Audio/Video equipment in a home Audio/Video Network (Gran & Scheller, 2000). Towards the end of 1990 the protocols and communication standards developed for structured wiring became outdated by the unpredicted developments in Wireless Communication. IEEE 802.11 is a family of standards for wireless communication originally designed for enterprise networking, extended for home users, and 802.11b is marketed as Wi-Fi. Blue-tooth facilitates short-range networking of computers, mobile phones, and portable hand-held devices (Shepherd, 2001), and HiperLAN is the wireless standard for LAN (Local Area Network). HES is a family of international standards for HA systems. Each appliance incorporating a Universal Interface (UI) connects to the Home Network through a Network Access Unit (NAU) and the UI and NAU communicates using a protocol specified by the HES (Wacks, 2001). HES has developed an international standard named HomeGate specifying translation between Wide Area Network (WAN) and Home Area Network (HAN) communication protocols for Home Network to connect to external networks. The working group, consisting of thirty national member bodies, is continuing the work it commenced in 1986 to finalise international standards for the residential gateway, application interoperability and Broadband home network. The aim of HES is to standardise hardware and software specifications, enabling manufacturers to offer compatible products for connection to a variety of home automation networks. The Versatile Home Network (VHN) is an international standard, offered by the Consumer Electronics Association, which defines a home


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network (called the Backbone Network) that supports communication of control signals as well as streaming data for audio/video (A/V). HAN is a specialized form of Local Area Network (LAN) that emerged as a result of HA systems. An open HAN five layer protocol conforming to Open System Interconnection is being developed for HAN to improve ease of use, reduce cost and improve inter-operability (Ye, Ji, & Yang, 2004). Configuration of devices in a Home Network required expertise and the user interface with few lines of text display made the task even more difficult. As the Internet became popular by the mid-1990s, some companies created specifications for home networks based on TCP/IP and other private consortia developed specifications for data communications over existing telephone wiring. JINI was developed by Sun Microsystems in 1999 to enable easy inter-operability of devices plugged in a home network without additional installation procedures. These developments improved the configuration facility and user interface by enabling control and monitoring of appliances using a PC. Security becomes a requirement when remote control facilities are provided to appliances by connecting Home Network to the external Wide Area Network (WAN). The proposal for the Home Automation Authentication Protocol (HAAP) contributed towards the security requirements of a Networked Home using HA communication protocols, for example CEBus (Leong & Vun, 1998). HAAP uses industrial-strength SPEKE public-key exchange for session key generation with MD5 message digest and IDEA block cipher encryption. A proposal for new mobile-agent based control system architecture for home automation is also for enabling remote control of appliances (Q. Wu, Wang, & Lin, 2001). This is a three-layer architecture consisting of enterprise headquarter (EH), regional management centers (RMC) for each region, and home service gateways (HSG). The purpose of this control system is for internet-based distributed control of home appliances using software agents that can move from node to node of the network. Application of ICT in home health front has been envisaged for Home Automation as part of the vision of “Intelligent Home”. Automatic monitoring of health parameters without disrupting daily activities is a new concept for maintaining good health at reduced cost. Envisaged future technologies may include a device mimicking a mosquito for automatic blood sampling and artificial nose for detecting smell (Togawa, 1998).


2.3

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Current State of Home Automation and Review of Developments in HA More recent developments in HA are analysed here to understand the current

trends in HA. It is interesting to analyse the results of the three distinct visions on HA described in Section 2.2, namely the Computerised Home, the “Intelligent Home” and the “Interactive Home”. Evaluation of success and failures of these developments and identification of reasons for such an outcome can be a valuable reference for researchers and investors.

2.3.1

Recent Developments Intelligent or Smart Home ideas have been applied to produce a number of prod-

ucts such as remote controlled air-conditioning equipment, sensor controlled lighting and centralised security systems. Other interesting products struggling to acquire a market share include the Internet Microwave Oven, the Internet Washing Machine, and the Internet Air Conditioner in Singapore (Umun, 2003). Developments in Personal Computer have taken a big leap, transforming the work station equipment to a full fledged multimedia centre with built-in DVD players, MP3 players, Webcams, and USB ports to connect to digital still cameras, IEEE 1394 (“FireWire”) to connect to digital video camera (Teger & Waks, 2002). High volume and high speed data communication facilities are available at affordable rates to home users. FSN is available to Home Users and other facilities such as VoD. Research and development activities with the same goal of remote monitoring and control of Home Appliances are still continuing. An XML based format, the Device Message Protocol (DMP), developed to send control, query, event subscription and notification messages using HTTP, serves the purpose of communicating with networked devices within home from a Web Browser (Khurana, Dutta, Gurung, & Schulzrinne, 2004). A Java-based home automation system uses an embedded system board integrated into a PC-based server for monitoring and control of home appliances via the Internet (Al-Ali & Al-Rousan, 2004). In another proposal a Residential Gateway consisting of an embedded microcontroller is used to obtain access to home devices remotely via Internet (Kuo, Salcic, & Madawala, 2003). Data mining techniques are applied in developing the Episode Discovery (ED) algorithm


26

which mines the event history of device usage at home to detect patterns. These patterns are then analysed for periodic usage detection and this is further used for automating device control (Heierman & Cook, 2003). Home networking and the remote monitoring and control of appliances and devices still remain the focus of many recent studies on Home Automation as evidenced by the following research efforts. • Network traffic scheduling: this work proposes a traffic scheduling scheme for obtaining optimal parameters regarding IEEE 802.15.4 low rate wireless personal area network protocol (Kim, Song, & Lee, 2007) • A home automation system is reported where communication technologies of GSM (Global System for Mobile Communication), Internet, and speech recognition have been used for real-time monitoring and remote control of home devices (Yuksekkaya, Kayalar, Tosun, Ozcan, & Alkar, 2006). • A home automation module is developed that can handle network communication using TCP/IP, eliminating dedicated home server, and incorporates remote control and monitoring software. • In another study Service-Oriented Smart-Home Architecture is proposed, based on Open Services Gateway Initiative (OSGi) and mobile-agent (MA) technology for control and augmentation of interaction devices (C.-L. Wu, Liao, & Fu, 2007). The above mentioned research efforts reveal the limited scope of the recent past developments; these developments also establish that home networking remains the main focus of HA. It is also worth mentioning that from the user’s point of view the applicability and usability remains the same except different technologies are used. Even though home networking remains the focus of research and development efforts, there is no evidence of user demand as the motivation behind these efforts.

2.3.2

Project Failures The “Kitchen Computer” was a total failure, with no sales, because of its high price

and, most importantly, its difficult user interface. The “Kitchen Computer” had very limited features compared to the many desirable features incorporated in ECHO IV. Nonetheless,


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it could be considered as a great achievement for the technology available at that time. Towards the end of the 1990s, after more than a decade spent on their development, it is found that many of the above mentioned standardisation attempts in communication ended up in failure. By 1998 it is reported that EHS (European Home Systems) funded by ESPRIT projects started declining. SMART HOUSE spent about $100 million creating a proprietary design for the new home market. The partnership failed before they completed less than 100 installations (Wacks, 2001). The HES initiated by IEC and ISO in 1986 has been continuing its developments fifteen years later in 2001 (Wacks, 2002b). In February 1999 Electrolux exhibited a prototype of “screenfridge” at the international trade show Domotechnica in Cologne, Germany. The screenfridge had a display screen and it facilitated e-mail, video-mail, internet connection, news and radio, and recipes for food stored in the fridge, a bar code reader so a shopping list can be administered to order grocery items over the internet and it has connection to home security cameras (Spicer, 2000). There was not enough market response for this prototype to be taken into full development and production. Recent enquiries found that the Internet Fridge from LG Electronics is not picking up sales in Australia to any reasonable level. The development of wireless communication technology and the availability of wireless devices at affordable prices with simple interfaces enables home users to interconnect appliances without using structured wiring. Internet based communication protocols are developed that can be used for monitoring and controlling appliances using a PC. These unexpected developments make the communication protocols and specifications developed for interconnection of appliances using structured wiring largely irrelevant.

2.3.3

Review of Products and Services The history of developments described in previous sections clearly shows that

the growth of the Home Automation Industry is greatly influenced by technological advancements and visions based on possible applications of technology. These technological advancements include developments in integrated circuit technology leading to cheap microprocessor systems, PCs with Internet facilities and Broadband communication facilities allowing high speed data communication. Another important fact to notice is the identification of communication standards enabling inter-connectivity of appliances as the major technical issue to be considered for implementing home automation. Analysis provided in


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Section 2.2.4 and developments reported in 2.3.1 reveal that the main focus of HA has been an integrated home network enabling interconnection of lighting, heating, security, entertainment devices and other appliances, thus facilitating automatic and/or remote control of home appliances. The earlier visions have been based only on the possibilities of what technology could do rather than on the real needs of users and the resources available for home users in terms of time and money. The above findings show that certain aspects of the HA Industry have not picked up momentum as envisaged in the late 1980s and that the major driving force of technology is not sufficient to produce innovative products and effective consumer demand. It is a fact that the market still lacks products with attractive features. Fundamentally, operational and economic feasibility studies are essential in addition to technical feasibility for a major project selection. Incremental re-assessment of user requirements and other environmental factors can be used to establish any amendments required to the original project development plan. For example, as the wireless communications technology matures, structured wiring and related technologies for Home Networking become obsolete. Another example is the Internet Fridge; this was an exciting vision at a time when Internet facility was not available with PCs, compared to the current situation of PCs with flat screen monitors, TVs and multimedia available at one-sixth the price of an Internet Fridge. It is therefore essential to set the main project focused on the ultimate goal of realistic user needs rather than on techniques. As with any major project, well-formulated user requirement analysis and cost-benefit analysis are central to success. Home users are price sensitive (Green, Gyi, Kalawsky, & Atkins, 2004; McPherson, 1996; Venkatesh, 1996). This is evident from the failure in selling “Kitchen computer“, “ Screen Fridge“ and the popularity of Home Networking below expectation. Take the example of the Internet Fridge, which costs approximately eleven times the price of a conventional refrigerator. PCs are available with the Internet connection facilities at very affordable prices. The Internet-connected appliances enable the user to upgrade software and the vendors to conduct remote software fault detection and correction. These are not essential features that can be justified for the extra cost. Products and services need to be made available to users at affordable and reasonable prices to succeed in the market. Home user purchases are influenced by pragmatism (Green et al., 2004; McPherson, 1996). Taking the case of the Internet Fridge again, this fridge lacks some of the basic functionality envisaged, such as a family calendar, and personalised news, as these facilities


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require user specific input. The conventional refrigerator is an almost maintenance free, longer life span appliance, compared to the fast evolving and high maintenance electronics and software required in an Internet Fridge. With the fridge door being frequently opened and closed, the ergonomics of having the display screen on the door is also debatable. Very low to nil market penetration of the remote controlled appliances such as Internet Microwave Oven, and the Internet Washing Machine are again examples of lack of pragmatism. These appliances require manual loading. In many cases a Microwave Oven requires intermittent attention for desired results and also not advisable to be operated in an unattended house due to fire safety concerns. The other factors influencing home user purchases are simplicity, reliability, low maintenance, and availability of heterogeneous functions per appliance (Green et al., 2004). Some of the above mentioned applications have obtained certain market share. Services and products for leisure and entertainment are one active sector of HA, but at the same time there is an over supply of technical innovation to this area compared to percentage of demand and use.

2.4

Technologies for Domestic Environment There are a limited number of user involved studies conducted to understand the

use of information and communication technologies at home as well as to explore opportunities for development of technology for use in the domestic environment. Findings of such studies are analysed in this section.

2.4.1

Overview of ICT use at home The PC has gained a position in the household as a home appliance. For example,

various statistical studies conducted in 2006 show that 72 per cent of all Australian households owned a computer (Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2007b). Evaluation of marketing perspectives used by industries for sales of Information Technology and Home PCs reveals that interactive technologies are advertised in publications such as HomePC and FamilyPC as boosting techniques for family relationships (McPherson, 1996). The study of these advertising and marketing trends reflects that there is a desire for stable family relationships and a sense of belonging. This leads to an environment where new technologies have to coexist with old social forms.


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Industries market Personal Computers and associated software specifically designed for office use under the name of Home PC. It is well known that present day PCs are designed for office use (Kahn, 1997). In the office environment, the user is continually present in the near vicinity of the PC and almost continuously uses it. In a home environment the user’s time is highly fragmented into shorter time slices among different tasks. There is incomplete domestication of PCs into the household. Desktop User Interfaces, designed for single user, do not facilitate simultaneous parent child interaction with PC (Venkatesh, 1996). Other factors should also be taken into consideration, such as the highly distractive environment at home, the very high maintenance requirement of PCs in terms of both software and hardware upgrades, and the short life span of PCs compared to other home appliances. It is appropriate in the home environment, to be possible to access a PC from anywhere in the house using for example a remote controller, rather than always needing to go to the keyboard.

2.4.2

Analysis of Home Environment Two different models have been used to analyse the activities at home and use or

perceived use of ICT at home. ”Living Space” Model There has been research carried out on the use of ICT at home and as part of this surveys and ethnographic studies have been conducted (Venkatesh, 1996). Their work models the family as a ”Living Space” consisting of Physical/Architectural space, Technological Space and Social/Cultural Space. Physical/Architectural space refers to built environment of house including arrangement and organisation of the interior parts. Technological space refers to use of PCs and other Information Technology devices at home. Social and Cultural Space refers to the adoption and impact of Information Technology in the home. Overall the ”Living Space” Model is used to examine the use of PCs and Internet at home and the impact these technologies have on architectural aspect of home as well as social and cultural impact by the usage patterns and adoption of technology. It has been found that users are pragmatic and price sensitive while at the same time interested to keep up to date with technology innovations. Food Management, Household Maintenance and Finance, Recreation and Enter-


31

tainment, Family Communication, Employment, Family Development and Well-being are identified as ”sub-environments” of family life (Venkatesh, 1996). Multimedia and Internet facilities available with PCs assisted greater diffusion of technology into different sub-environments compared to the limited use of computers in Work/Employment related activities. The various tasks involved in these areas such as meal preparation and consumption, washing dishes, grocery shopping, cleaning, tax preparation, family communication, job related activities, education, fitness, dieting and holiday gathering have been identified as targets for technology use. PC has gained name as a household item even when home users own it mainly for limited uses of carrying out job related activities, or educational purposes. ”Networked Home” Research on ”Networked Home” is an attempt to analyse the current developments and future trends as a result of home automation and increased communication facilities (Venkatesh, Kruse, & E.C.Shih, 2001). Home is viewed from the perspective of different activities done at home. Based on this eight centers have been identified: activity, entertainment, work, shopping/finance, family interaction, information and communication. It is reported that there is a clear trend towards households’ networking of entertainment devices, appliances, security systems and PCs. There are possibilities of linking home communities to schools and to each other. Other possible applications envisaged are centralised control of Water (Sprinkler Systems, Sewage), Power Management-electricity and gas. This report suggests connections to local business services such as Travel Agents, Banks, and Weather Stations. A study, commenced in 1999, was conducted on a selected set of fifty families living in the Orange County at Los Angeles in the US, on using PCs at home to obtain more insight into current trends in use of Information Technology at home and future expectations of the home user (Venkatesh, Stolzoff, Shih, & Mazumdar, 2001). This study has formulated user profiles on a number of aspects related to use of ICT at home and these results are briefly discussed below. Major reasons for ownership of a PC at home are work-related and for children’s education. The purchase of a PC is influenced by ”pragmatism and price”. PC is valued as a great educational tool, especially with internet facility to access world wide information quickly. There is great concern about the complexity in installation,


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configuration and upgrading of software. E-shopping is only getting moderate interests due to a number of reasons including: • security • lack of opportunity for physical examination of products Customers are highly attracted to the overall convenience promised by the Smart Home Technologies and these include facility for remote environmental control, and added security. Medium-level interest has been observed for Local Area Network (LAN) and integration of all information and communication devices where as low-level interest has been expressed in Internet fridge and intelligent robots. Also it is found that customers are not comfortable about being totally out of control of the environment. More importantly it is essential to pay more attention to the everyday needs of family life. Another study, that conducted user interviews, also found that home users are highly interested in applications like ’Home message centre’ whereas low level interest is shown in devices like activity monitor (Parkka et al., 2002).

2.4.3

Studies on Working Parents There is a very small collection of work on lifestyle related issues of families where

both parents work. A prominent study is the investigation into the lifestyles of working parents conducted by Hewlett-Packard Laboratories with the aim of identifying potential technological opportunities (Beech et al., 2003). Pilot interviews of four different families, surveys of 64 working parents, and follow-up interviews of 28 parents from Bristol, US were conducted in the study. Considering the complex and demanding lifestyle followed by working parents, the study tried to explore the current use of technology and opportunities for improvement. The findings of the study include need for information on home while away from home, facility to share family calendar, possibility of having a wall mounted display for messages, assistance with domestic chores such as meal planning and integrated home-work technologies for better communication with family members while at work. Another study focused on dual-income families interviewed 12 dual-income families and used the data to generate concepts on possible application of technology to provide more control over their lives (M. K. Lee et al., 2006). The study revealed the need for technology assistance to deal with deviations from routines and to provide more control in dealing with time, relationships and family activities.


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Workshops were used in another study sampling 5-8 households of various categories – dual income families, couples over 65, single income families, shared households, and people with disabilities – to understand user views on smart user interface requirements (Green et al., 2004). A number of generic design requirements including low cost, reliability, flexibility, and low maintenance have been identified. The areas identified for technology application are welfare, entertainment, communication, safety, and building environment. Domestic environment and home life have been subject of ethnographic study for the purpose of applying both Human-Computer Interaction (HCI) and Computer Supported Cooperative Work (CSCW) in developing new technology for cooperative buildings (Hughes, O’Brien, & Rodden, 1998). Emerging practices of using technology for nurturance–supporting emotional relationships and providing comfort was studied and new designs for nurturing technology were proposed in a research conducted involving users in a one-day workshop (Elliot, Mainwaring, Sengers, & Woodruff, 2006). Overall, the above studies have revealed certain aspects of home life and technology use. But they have failed to provide a holistic view or expose specific products or services. The absence of a systemic view and system model to follow is also evident from these studies reported in the previous sections.

2.5

Lessons To Learn The previous sections of this chapter have presented two perspective of HA and

these include: • view of the developments in HA from an industry perspective • view of the developments in HA from a user perspective

2.5.1

Industry Perspective of HA The review conducted in Section 2.3 exposes some characteristics of the industry

approach and problems faced by the HA industry. These include: • Market Penetration


34

The review conducted in Section 2.2.4 reveals that the products developed following the “technology push“ approach failed to attract sufficient consumer demand as envisaged. • Project Failures The Section 2.3.2 reports many major project failures leading to large financial loss and reduction in investor confidence. • Limited Scope The study of current products and services conducted in Section 2.3.3 establishes the limited scope of products and services available. During the recent past the main focus of home automation has been an integrated home network enabling interconnection of lighting, heating, security, entertainment devices and other appliances, thus facilitating automatic and /or remote control of home appliances. Home Automation Industry products and services are mainly limited to three areas: Entertainment, Remote Controlled Household appliances, and Building environmental control – HVAC, Lighting, and Security. • Need for Innovative Ideas The HA industry is in need of innovative ideas that can lead to products and services with attractive features. Extensive analysis of the specific needs of the family home user has been absent. The Home Automation industry has not picked up the momentum envisaged in the late 1980s and the technology push alone is not sufficient to produce innovative products and effective consumer demand. It is a fact that the market still lacks products with attractive features for the average home user. • Need for Future User Requirements Elicitation Review of developments in HA, provided in Section 2.3.3, reveals that decisive factors of price and pragmatism impacting home user purchase have not been given enough weight as well as critical system requirements of simplicity, reliability, low maintenance and multitasking. There has been an absence of both realistic user need analysis and re-assessment of user need variations due to environmental impact.


2.5.2

35

User Perspective of HA There are many trend setting factors that shape the lifestyle of users as discussed

in Section 1.1. Even though the users are confronted with many lifestyle related problems the review of many user involved studies finds that users have provided only information on certain aspects. This is evident from the analysis of various studies provided in Section 2.4. Analysis of the review conducted in Section 2.4 reveals the following aspects. • Lack of User Insight Users are confronted with problems. But they are not insightful to understand the underlying issues or technology capabilities. • Latent Demand Due to the lack of insight, users are not able to demand specific products or services. Therefore, HA industry is left with a market with latent demand. • Varying Needs The issues dealt by users and the technology needs are different for different users. It is difficult to formulate a holistic view based on the input received from users.

2.5.3

HA in Need of a Technology Roadmap From discussing initiatives for studying home life and technology implications for

daily life in the US, Japan,and Europe the 1993 report of the EC’s European Foundation for the Improvement of Living and Working Conditions comments: “A major criticism can be levelled at all three initiatives. No model of the home or its user has been developed which could underlie developments in the electronic home area. The initiatives are largely the result of a “technology push” type approach. A clear conceptual paradigm has not emerged ... The decision by all three major actors ... to carry out research on the experiences of real householders is to be welcomed. This will provide valuable feedback on user needs and requirements on which the viability of the initiatives from a market perspective ultimately depends“ (Moran, 1993). It is worth noticing that the comments reported above are still valid, seventeen years later in Year 2010. Even after conducting many user involved studies, there is absence


36

of a system model and clear conceptual paradigm. To address this problem we suggest following a systemic approach viewing family as a single system and analysing the user requirements by identifying the main processes within this system. It is necessary to differentiate between home and family. Home is an occupied household whereas family is a structured society. New studies are required to analyse family life, identify tasks that can be automated and thus lead to products and services with attractive features. The HA industry lacks a technology roadmap that can guide strategic technology investment plans based on potential products and services meeting actual market needs. Technology Roadmapping (TR) identifies both the market needs and the products and services to meet those needs. Product diversification is essential for business success and is required to identify products and services that meet real user needs. It is essential to leave the tunnel vision of interconnecting and switching existing appliances as the main focus of home automation and apply lateral thinking to generate innovative products and services that can be packaged into a home suite of easily selectable options. It is most appropriate for HA to have an industry level International Technology Roadmap for Home Automation (ITRHA). This alleviates the chances of project failures occurring as a result of following technology based visions because TR is needs-based. There are many different industries contributing to HA by the application of diverse technologies and an ITRHA can assist industry level collaboration in the cost effective development of end products/services. The ITRHA is the efficient and effective way of conducting periodic review of overall aspects and revising products and services. Incremental re-assessment of user requirements and other environmental factors can be used to establish any amendments required to the original project development plan. For example the Internet Fridge was an exciting vision at a time Internet facility was not available with PC – compared to current situation of PCs with flat screen monitors, TVs and multimedia available at one-sixth the price of an Internet Fridge.

2.6

Technology Roadmapping and Scenario This study is founded on the framework of an approach integrating technology

roadmapping and scenarios. Therefore, it is vital to discuss these two approaches in detail. “Roadmaps can comprise statements of theories and trends, the formulation of models, identification of linkages among and within sciences, identification of discontinuities and


37

knowledge voids, interpretation of investigations and experiments” (Galvin, 1998). In general terms a “road map” provides information on geographic locations and routes connecting different locations. Thus “road map” can be used for finding out how to reach from a place of origin to a destination following the route. Technology roadmaps also have these three essential components of origin, destination and a path to reach the destination. Here the destination is the futuristic vision and the origin is the current state. The roadmap provides a framework for building a comprehensive information rich representation of critical technology planning (Bray & Garcia, 1997; Li & Kameoka, 2003). Roadmapping is an approach that can assist in defining a goal or futuristic vision, identify alternative paths to reach the defined goal, select a plausible alternative and review the chosen alternative. The process can initiate innovation, reduce uncertainties, and improve technology investment. Again taking the simple example of a person viewing a far away geographic location and deciding to build a route to his/her vision, there are many estimations or speculative figures based on which the person has to make an action plan. The estimations may include costs involved, time required, and additional expenses to remove or bridge obstacles of hills or rivers. These estimations or speculative figures create uncertainties in the decision making. The uncertainties are the list of “known unknowns”. There are alternative routes to the location and alternative transports could be used. Other than these uncertainties there are ambiguities that are “unknown unknowns”, such as political and legal regulations, to deal with. The decision can be evaluated based on the purpose and the potential value of the development of the location. Technology roadmapping is a needs-driven vision where the needs could be business growth with a new product, market, or sustainable profit. The vision can be based on an organisational level need or an industry-wide need. There are uncertainties and ambiguities to deal with in the course of action to materialise this vision as well as alternatives to choose from. The process of technology roadmapping provides a framework to gain collective input to identify alternatives, evaluate the alternatives, and choose appropriately. The futuristic vision is usually with a longer time span of 10 to 15 years and there are many temporal variables that influence progression through the chosen path to reach the vision. The document generated as part of the roadmapping process provides a reference to review and modify the selected path as well as to evaluate the targeted vision with reduced ambiguities.


2.6.1

38

Origins of Technology Roadmapping The Technology Roadmapping originated at Motorola in the late 1970s and early

1980s under the advocacy of then CEO Robert Galvin. The first paper on Motorola’s use and approach appeared in a Research Management Journal in 1987 (Willyard & McClees, 1987). There had been a growing need for Motorola to reduce the product development cycle time to meet customer demand, while the complexity of products increased (Probert & Radnor, 2003). In the early 1990s the roadmapping approach became more popular and a very good example of this is the Semiconductor Roadmap, a 200 page dynamic document still being updated and followed (Galvin, 2004; Allan et al., 2002; Edenfeld, Kahng, Rodgers, & Zorian, 2004). By late 1990s several European firms followed the Motorola practice of using roadmaps and EIRMA (European Industrial Research Management Association) documented the roadmapping process from the experiences of 25 corporations. The roadmapping approach applied in engineering technology has found application in science (Galvin, 1998). The technology roadmapping approach, originated in engineering industry, has migrated to universities in a limited fashion. Purdue’s Center for Technology Roadmapping (CTR) was established with the support of Motorola and Learning Trust. The CTR is engaged in research activities of data mining across roadmaps, the development of an ontology for technology roadmapping, and the analysis of the dynamics of roadmaps over time (Duckles & Coyle, 2002). Roadmapping is accepted as a method for technology planning and the Center for Technology Management (CTM) from Cambridge University has developed “T-Plan” for speeding up the roadmapping process (Phaal, Farrukh, & Probert, 2004). There are other efforts for enhancing the application of roadmapping. Technology Planning, a subgroup of the global Technology Management Group owned by General Motors, has developed a database where needs and ideas can be collected related to product development and further used for roadmap generation (Grossman, 2004). More than 1300 roadmaps are listed in the Cambridge University web site (Institute for Manufacturing, 2009); this is an indication of the popularity and application of roadmapping and it has been in use for more than a quarter of a century. The roadmapping approach is applied in technology management in a variety of forms such as emerging technologies, sustaining technologies, product-technology, product-market, and disruptive technologies to


39

explore the landscape of technology, or in development. The associated process of roadmapping is flexible, but requires customisation to obtain an optimum result. Over the years it has evolved, but lacks formal specification, standards, and evaluation methods.

2.6.2

Roadmapping Process The Roadmapping Process is an iterative and on-going activity, generally collab-

orative in nature. The roadmap is the document defining the futuristic goal and the route leading to that goal from the current state. The roadmapping process is required to define the futuristic vision detailing the scope and context. The current state, in terms of technology capabilities and market need, is also described as part of the roadmapping process. Knowledge of the future goal and current state is used to identify the technology gaps and strategic alternatives to reach the goal. Experts from various functional areas of organisation such as marketers, developers, and researchers contribute to the roadmapping process. Roadmapping is an exploratory process, requiring vision and customisation to suit the particular business environment. Generally workshops are organised and it is required to evaluate consensus and divergent ideas. Innovative ideas emerge from collective knowledge and imagination; it is important to obtain input from a maximum number of professionals as well as to consider minority views and insightful propositions from individuals (Grossman, 2004). Workshops are found to be a suitable method for initiating and formulating a roadmap and this requires dedicated time and involvement from experts. Generally in organisations or industry where a consensus on major problems exists and chances of obtaining a collaborative insight from people involved in business are great, then workshops can be used. This may not be successful where a focus on problems doesn’t exist and very diverse groups having hardly any insight make up the majority of users or developers. An example is the HA industry: this industry is made up of many diverse sectors, users don’t have neither a coherent view of problems nor any insight on technological capabilities. A four phase roadmapping process, currently in practice, takes into account • the necessity to initiate a preliminary activity understanding the context, scope and boundaries and required leadership • the development activity of identifying product, system requirements, technology drivers and needs


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• the roadmap implementation • the follow-up with validation, review and update (Bray & Garcia, 1997). Initiation The first phase of initiation commences with the conception of a futuristic vision. This vision can originate from a single person or it can be a collective generation. This view is established by the fact that Motorola roadmap documents have sections for minority reports and individualistic advocacy. The vision can originate from a business perspective that may include: • Market saturation and requirement for a new product • Need for product cost reduction due to competition • Disruptive technology and product obsolescence • Improved performance requirement • Emerging technologies and business opportunities The motivation for a vision can be “market-pull” or “technology push”. A larger proportion of literature on roadmapping is on product-technology roadmaps where application of technology is required to make the product perform better at a reduced cost to compete in the market. A product-market roadmap can be used to understand the market opportunities and identify innovative product ideas. In this case current technology is examined to identify technology gaps for developing new products and thus technology investment is required. In any of these cases it is required to clearly understand the context of the newly created vision. This could be the current market, manufacturing processes, technologies used, technology capability, business opportunities and political environment. As the roadmapping process is initiated, experts belonging to a number of functional areas within a business or across industry need to understand the context and scope of the roadmapping. The context and scope can be documented using text based tools, but these aspects are dynamic and regular updates are required. Business modelling can be used to represent and communicate some aspects. More formal modelling methods customised for


41

roadmapping purpose can be of assistance in correctly identifying and recording all relevant information for clearly defining the context and scope. Development The development of a roadmap involves study of the current technology capability and identification of the technology gaps or problems in realising the vision. This exercise produces a set of technology development needs requiring research and development investment. As this is a collective exercise there could be many suggestions on possible alternatives to meet the technology gap. The experts involved use their tacit knowledge in this activity of innovative thinking. There are no formal, systematic methods reported for this most productive and innovative exercise. There are knowledge creation methods such as brain storming, Delphi method for knowledge creation and recording with software tools (Awad & Ghaziri, 2003). The other aspect of roadmapping is the uncertainties and ambiguities involved and how these are identified and dealt with during the development and implementation of roadmapping. The uncertainties being “known unknowns” there is the possibility of listing these variables in sets and tracing them as progress is made. Scenario technique provides a systematic method for identifying, co-relating, and learning the dynamics of these variables (Heijden, 2005). This can be used to understand the risk taken, and evaluate the quality of assessment and foresight in taking the decision. Techniques such as PERT and Gantt diagrams are used in project planning; these may be used for creating the roadmap matrix, which is one document graphically presenting a consolidated result in a comprehensive way along a time-scale (Kendall & Kendall, 1988). Figure 2.1 illustrates a sample roadmap matrix. The roadmapping process is entirely different to project planning in terms of the ambiguity and uncertainty involved, the innovation required, the longer time-span taken and a larger perspective of the vision. As the practice of roadmapping is getting wider acceptance there is a software tool to manage an archive of roadmaps stored in a common data format in a central database server. This enables the generation of a hierarchy of roadmaps and the sharing of roadmaps across organizations within an industry to promote more collaboration and reduce duplication of investment efforts. An application called Geneva Vision Strategist developed by Learning Trust in close association with Motorola is an example of such a tool (Duckles &


42

Coyle, 2002). The process of technology roadmapping is an appealing, challenging and complex process and assessment of output at various stages is required to verify the cohesion and to avoid duplication of effort. The gate review process, in which gate reviews are conducted at the finish of initiation, concept selection and application ready stages, is a method in practice for assessment (Grossman, 2004). Another contribution to the roadmapping process is the “fast-start” T-Plan that structures the roadmapping process around four facilitated workshops. The first three workshops focus on the three aspects of business/market needs, deliverables – product/service, and technology while the fourth workshop is used to consolidate the ideas into a roadmap document. T-Plan uses market/business requirements to identify product and technology options with the aim of developing new product and market opportunities (Phaal et al., 2004). T-plan can be used for a multi-organisational purpose and it has been used in 40 cases. Roadmap Implementation The roadmapping process identifies and selects a plausible alternative to be pursued to attain the targeted goal. Progressing through the chosen path is a complex activity due to the uncertainties and ambiguities involved. As the roadmap is developed by input from experts, the primary step in implementation is communicating the mission across functional areas of the organisation. In essence a technology roadmap identifies specific research and development tasks that have to be undertaken and thus becomes the source of projects whose realisation is the implementation of the roadmap. There are a number of factors required for the deployment of the roadmap and these include: • Well defined scope and objective • Collaborative team • Shared understanding • Management support • Availability of required resources.


43

There are several sets of elements used to define the context, scope and the chosen alternative and as the work progresses these defining elements mutate. As the roadmap is a dynamic document, it is critical to update it and keep it alive (Strauss & Radnor, 2004). Unlike in a project execution, it is essential to evaluate, redefine and make necessary modifications to the roadmap and the implementation plan. Depending on the variations to the factors related to market and technology developments, the vision itself may need revision. Establishment of processes and systems in place for the execution of the plan and timely modification of the roadmap is critical for its success. Assessment of Roadmap The effectiveness and success of the roadmapping process need to be evaluated by assessing the roadmap produced, and the roadmapping process itself that creates collective knowledge. But there are no independent objective tests of quality or reference standards to assess the roadmap quality (Kostoff & Schaller, 2001). The important contribution from the roadmapping process recorded in the roadmap is the chosen alternative, the path to achieve the futuristic vision. This has to be done understanding the “big picture” within the current context. The knowledge created in terms of new product ideas or innovative technology solutions is a measure of the success of the roadmapping process. The effectiveness of the projects, for achieving the vision generated from the roadmap, is also an indicator of the quality of the roadmap. Roadmap quality measures are significant for roadmaps to be used as an operational tool (Kostoff & Schaller, 2001). Conditions for a high-quality roadmap are: • Retrospective component: a reflection of related factors that evolved the technology • Present time component: a comprehensive view of factors influencing the technology currently • Prospective component: wider view of technology areas and critical elements leading to the targeted vision • Use of global data • Implementable recommendations


2.6.3

44

Taxonomy of Roadmaps The roadmaps can be classified based on any one of three aspects: context, vision

and the alternatives or the object of roadmap processing. The context includes the participants and the scope of the roadmap. From this perspective, roadmaps can be classified as organisational, industry or cross-industry. The roadmaps can be used for strategic planning with a long-range time horizon for various purposes. There are eight types of roadmaps identified, based on purpose. These include product planning, service/capability planning, strategic business planning, long-range planning, knowledge asset planning, program planning, process planning, and integration planning (Phaal et al., 2004). Here the discussion on classification is limited to technology roadmaps. Product-Technology Roadmaps Product-technology roadmaps are developed where the technology solutions are sought to improve product characteristics and thus meet business needs (Phaal et al., 2004; Bray & Garcia, 1997; Probert & Radnor, 2003). The vision or the need could be certain business aspects such as production cost reduction, process improvement, lesser product development time, and improved efficiency. Roadmaps used by Motorola are examples of such application of roadmapping. Product-Market Roadmap Product-market roadmaps are used to investigate technology solutions to meet market needs through new products or improved product features. In this case the business goals could be business growth, acquiring new markets or market extension. These goals could be the motivation for product-market roadmaps and this could be at the industry level rather than the organisational level (Galvin, 2004). The RF MEMS (Micro-ElectroMechanical System) roadmap prepared under the project Applied Research Roadmap for Micro and Nano Systems (ARRRO) is an example of this (Bouchaud, Knblich, Tilmans, Coccetti, & Fatatry, 2007). This roadmap aims to provide strategic assessment of the current status and requirements for products and applications for RF MEMS and RF Nanosystems technology.


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Technology-Product Roadmap Technology-product roadmaps are generally industry level roadmaps that are used to explore product opportunities by the application of technological solutions. Businesses may be facing tight competition and there may be a need for seeking technology solutions for sustainability. The International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors (ITRS) is an example (Edenfeld et al., 2004). A product becoming obsolete could be replaced with new product by application of disruptive technologies. Science roadmaps Science roadmaps are used to explore fundamental issues or mysteries of nature (Galvin, 1998; Kostoff & Schaller, 2001). An example of a science roadmap is the NASA astrobiology roadmap that provides guidance to research and technology development for investigations to understand space, Earth and biological sciences (Marais et al., 2008). This roadmap guides the strategic planning and technology investment for answering fundamental questions on the origins and evolution of life, existence of life elsewhere in the universe, and the future of life on Earth.

2.6.4

Benefits of Roadmapping and Current Problems with Roadmapping Process Roadmaps have been used for a quarter of a century and have been widely adopted

in the last decade. It is yet to experience the full potential of roadmapping and to establish theoretical foundation, formal benchmarks, and evaluation criteria. The benefits stated below are from the experience of practitioners and in many instances the tangible and intangible benefits are not distinguished. Tangible Benefits It may be difficult to assess the benefit in definite monetary terms as there are no existing formal methods. A new innovative product, reduction in production cost due to new application of technology, acquisition of new market, and revelation of scientific theories all contribute to financial gain for the particular business or society in large. This is an area where further research can contribute by incorporating formal evaluation methods.


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Motorola, the pioneer in using roadmaps, reports savings in hundreds of millions of dollars in the supply management area by improving effectiveness, efficiency and obtaining market success (Grossman, 2004). Intangible Benefits The roadmapping process is generally a collaborative exercise involving experts from all functional areas of a corporation. This exercise promotes sharing of ideas and produces intangible benefits to the organisation that can be mainly categorised into three areas as described below: • Communication The roadmapping process commences with communicating a vision across functional areas of a corporate office. The generated roadmap sections can be used as a marketing tool to communicate that the company understands customer needs (Bray & Garcia, 1997). A roadmap becomes a convincing communication tool for funding applications. As a preliminary activity, detailed study and reporting are required on the scope, processes, current state of technology and other system details currently in use. Further decisions on technology needs and requirement for research and development investments are based on the preliminary work. Therefore there is a causal relationship for the strategic decisions for the course of action. This provides a convincing and coordinated communication tool for requesting funding from government agencies and allocating resources within the corporate office (Galvin, 2004). Another advantage is alleviation of duplicate research efforts in larger corporations or industries due to increased communication. • Collaboration and Synergy The roadmapping process promotes collaboration among experts at the organisational, industrial, or national level depending on the scope. Such collective effort improves coordination and produces synergy and concerted work. This also preempts biases and preconceptions based on the past, providing a forum for non-linear thinking extending to a wider time horizon. • Innovation and Creation of Knowledge


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The roadmapping process promotes collaboration, creation of innovative products and knowledge generation. The global operation, increased competition and more demanding customers prompt businesses to be continuously innovative and highly competitive. Roadmapping promotes learning by sharing of need and ideas among experts. This collaborative work leads to innovative thinking and the creation of new knowledge. It produces an environment for the discovery of gaps and the generation of novel ideas. It provides a framework for inter-disciplinary networking facilitating support and nourishment of conceptual knowledge originating from individuals to convert into real world applications (Li & Kameoka, 2003). The roadmapping process stimulates innovative thinking and intense investigations. The outcome of this process could be new products, novel application of emerging technologies, substantial product enhancement by application of technologies, or development of new technology solutions for ongoing problems. • Strategic Development and Long Term Planning Roadmapping provides a framework for the forecasting of science and technology developments in targeted areas. Technology investment decisions are risky due to the ambiguities and uncertainties prevailing around the future. There are two important stages in technology investment decisions; these are investing in research and development to create technology solutions and investing in development of new products or services transferring the research into practice. These decisions need assuring information to ease the decision maker’s task. The collaborative and iterative nature of the roadmapping process provides a framework to conduct detailed analysis of the past technology developments, current technology capabilities and future technology needs in terms of solid applications. These causal relationships enable better forecasting of science and technology developments in targeted areas. The technology roadmap assists strategic decision making in complex and turbulent environments by providing the needs-based vision and realistic alternatives to reach the targeted vision (Kostoff & Schaller, 2001). • It promotes investor interest in science and technology developments. The technology roadmap reveals co-evolution of market, product, and technology development along a time line. This exposes opportunities and benefits of investing


48

in technology thus promoting investor confidence. • A roadmap can guide future policy development for governments. A technology roadmap becomes a decision aid for coordinating allocation of resources and activities, especially in turbulent and complex environments. This can be used by governments in policy decisions for future funding allocations with causality. The roadmap document A roadmapping process produces a roadmap document that is a dynamic reference document. The first paper on Motorola’s practice of roadmapping described the roadmap document for a product technology roadmap as a compilation of eight sections (Probert & Radnor, 2003). These include: • Description of business This provides details of the product for which technology development is pursued within the context of the business. • Technology forecast This describes the vision to be achieved in terms of technology development and technology areas. • Technology roadmap matrix This provides a summary of product plans and the technology forecast. • Quality This provides details of quality measures to be followed. • Allocation of resources The resource allocation plan to achieve the perceived developments are detailed here. • Patent portfolio This describes the details of experts contributing to the innovation. • Product description This section provides a detailed description of the product.


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• Status reports and summary charts The roadmap document is a dynamic document and status reports provide information on the progress to date. • Minority report This section facilitates reporting of contributions and views of individuals and minority groups. In general the description of business sets the context by describing the business environment that details the political, economic, social and technological aspects. This section can be used to illustrate the current market and potential market drivers. The scope should give a description of the business aspects to be covered, the participants, and the main focus of the roadmapping. This section sets the goal or the need for roadmapping. The current technology capability, trends, and research and development activities are detailed with potential technology developments in the future. The roadmap matrix is a consolidated, concise, mostly graphical representation of the important factors, with their dynamic relationships on a temporal basis showing both commercial and technological business aspects. These factors are generally depicted in vertical layers with the time plotted on a horizontal axis. A most commonly used layered structure of a product-technology roadmap matrix is illustrated in Figure 2.1. This representation, which depicts the progression over time, provides a very quick reference for all the major parameters influencing the attainment of goal. Generally the topmost layer is used to display the need using market drivers, market size and other related factors. This clearly shows the reason for implementing a roadmap. The middle layers are used to display the deliverables, such as products, service, and performance that lead to the goal. The bottom layers depict the technology needs and technology investment needs. Nodes are used to illustrate each of the factors and links are used for presenting the relationship between nodes. Current Problems with Roadmapping It is a challenging task to coordinate the initiation of workshops facilitating the roadmapping process and also to organise further sessions for review and update. This


Market

M1

Product

P1

50

M2

P3

P2

P4 Technology

T1

T3

T2

RD1

R & D Project

T4

RD2

RD5

RD3 Time Years

2

4

RD6

RD4

6

8

10

12

Figure 2.1: Generic Structure of a Product Technology Roadmap Matrix. Source: adapted from Kostoff and Schaller “Science And Technology Roadmaps” IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, Vol 48(2), 2001


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arises from the fact that generally the roadmapping process is a collaborative and iterative process requiring dedicated effort and time allotment from experts of various functional areas. The roadmap matrix uses a simple format but the information contained is very complex. The other aspect is conveying the message across the organisational unit and implementing the strategic planning. Even though roadmapping uses simple format to co-relate a number of dynamic parameters over a longer period of time, there is an absence of formal methods to specify and verify the correctness of the derived output. The roadmapping starts with certain goals or futuristic vision and alternative paths needs to be developed from the current state with a clear understanding of all relevant parameters. There is required evaluation of alternative paths and selection of the most appropriate path. These activities are carried out using tacit knowledge collected from collaborative work. Again formal methods, benchmarks and standards are yet to be developed with a theoretical foundation. As the mostly followed practice of roadmapping relies on collective input from practitioners who have insight from the awareness of existing problems, this is not a suitable method to be followed in the HA industry consisting of very diverse users and a conglomerate of divergent industries. Therefore, this study proposes an approach integrating scenario technique to formulate an initial vision by an individual. This can create an initial roadmap with a top level view accommodating important environmental factors.

2.6.5

Scenarios The dictionary definition of scenario is ‘a description of how things might happen in

the future’. Scenario is the creation of stories in a scientific way by collecting context-related data and understanding the dynamic effect of variations to critical factors. This generates plausible scenarios logically with causality (Heijden, 2005). Roadmapping commences with a needs-based vision, then follows with the development of alternative paths to convert that vision into reality and with strategic planning to pursue a chosen alternative. A vision is made up of conceivable and desirable images of the future. Roadmapping does not include any formal technique to create the vision nor to develop alternative paths with a causality for a future review. A vision is often formed from intuition, perception, imagination and conception. Scenarios provide a framework to build conceivable futures that assist in creating futuristic vision with alternative paths in a logical manner. “Scenarios


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realise that the future is plural” (Lizaso & Reger, 2004).

2.6.6

Overview of Scenario Most often scenario technique is confused with scenario planning. Scenario Plan-

ning and technology foresight are alternatives to roadmapping in forecasting technology investment and formulating strategies. Scenario Planning is a complete foresight study that is used for technology management. This provides a framework to formulate enhanced vision, monitor environmental influences, and develop and review strategic plan. Scenario planning is mostly used for the development of strategic planning where more volatile, rapid and unanticipated changes may occur to the environmental factors that have a high impact on the strategies. This is due to the inherent environmental monitoring and analysis facility available with scenario planning. Scenario planning is generally used at corporate level planning. In this way it is distinct from the roadmapping used for detailed strategic planning. Scenario technique forms one aspect of scenario planning, creating a clear vision; this is a method to create a story about the future (Bishop, Hines, & Collins, 2007). As the future is uncertain it is advisable for the decision makers to view different futures and be prepared for deviations to the foresighted vision. This mental preparedness enables managers to pro-act rather than react. Scenarios can be used for understanding the immediate future within a specified context at the micro level or for learning about very complex situations in a distant time horizon at the macro level. At the micro level scenarios are used as use-cases for a proposed system to understand operational context and system requirements from the users’ perspectives that can be used for evaluating alternative system design and architecture (Canfield, Ramesh, & Quirologico, 1998; Hsia et al., 1994; Mavin & Maiden, 2003; Bai, Tsai, Paul, Feng, & Yu, 2002). These scenarios are constructed using sequential events of user interaction with the proposed system to expose perceived capabilities and functional requirements. The Micro level use of scenario is a deviation from its application in the context of long term future planning. Scenarios are used as an analysis tool to assist more effective decision making where it is necessary to prepare for uncertainties, to neutralize strong biases and to reduce investment risk in new product development following technology innovation


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(Drew, 2006; Meixell & Wu, 2001). In this case the time involved can be longer than use-case scenarios, therefore can be classified as middle term. Macro level scenarios can be used to create a big picture within a larger context in terms of time and complexity. “The great value of a scenario is being able to take complex elements and weave them into a story, which is coherent, systematic, comprehensive, and plausible” (Mietzner & Reger, 2005). Macro level scenarios are mostly discussed as part of scenario planning and the scenarios are applied in a wider context. Based on the context of application, scenarios can be classified as global, industry, business or technology scenarios (Ratcliffe, 2000).

2.6.7

Use of scenarios in roadmapping Using scenarios as part of roadmapping is not a widely practised approach and

there is limited literature available (Lizaso & Reger, 2004). Previous study suggests that the integration of scenarios and roadmapping can create a technology planning tool more suitable for volatile and dynamic environments. A conceptual framework is suggested for such integration (Strauss & Radnor, 2004) and the scenario building process and integrating the results into roadmap is not detailed. It is possible that roadmapping is initiated from the vision of an individual or a minority group based on perception or imagination. In long-term planning, in the range of ten to fifteen years, it is possible that the vision could turn out to be impossible due to environmental changes. As scenarios are built from context sensitive critical factors, it gives a chance to underpin the vision to realistic aspects and also create alternative visions that are plausible in case of unexpected changes. Having a causal relationship to current state makes the roadmap a more convincing communication tool for requesting resources. Scenarios can be used to produce a clear picture of the future state and to relate aspects of the future state to the current system. Vision is positively contributing to set a goal and to obtain committed involvement unless it is “tunnel vision” in which case the context is ignored. Scenarios can be used to alleviate such tendencies and reduce the uncertainties. They also assist in reducing the risk of following the chosen course of action by preparing the decision makers with alternate possibilities. This preparedness makes managers more sensitive to changes, enabling them to observe early signals and take preemptive actions.


2.6.8

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Method of building scenario There are more than two dozen techniques prevalent as the scenario building is

customised to suit different applications (Bishop et al., 2007). A few of them are role playing, visualisation, trend extrapolation, systems scenarios and trend impact analysis. Scenarios can be presented as event tree diagrams or stories. The method followed in this work is the six steps method of van der Heijden (Heijden, 2005). For a more elaborate discussion of scenario building refer to Section 5.3.1. The steps include: 1. Collecting data related to uncertainties and issues The most important part of building scenarios is identifying all the factors that are relevant to the context. This should be systematically done rather than following an intuitive selection. The identification of factors can be done following a method called SEEPT–social, economical, environmental, political, and technological (Thomas, 1998). 2. Establishing interrelations using influence matrix An Influence matrix can be used to plot large number of factors and synthesise the effect of interrelation between different factors. 3. Identifying the most influential factors, describing their variations and driving forces An impact/predictability graph can be used to rank the influence factors. General inclination is to expect the current trends to continue. The importance here is to break this inclination by studying the underlying forces, termed as “driving forces” (Heijden, 2005). The purpose is to systematically contemplate variations to the trend in case of changes to the driving forces. 4. Combining these issues into a scenario framework Choose a number of influence factors that are of high impact, low predictability or highly uncertain. These become the dimension of the scenario matrix plotted in a twodimensional space of impact, predictability values. Future projections are developed by considering positive and negative variations to the most impacting/highly uncertain elements.


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5. Detailing the model Distinguish the scenarios using the key influence factors. Develop three or four scenarios depicting plausible futures caused by the evolution of the main factors considered. 6. Translating the model into plausible scenarios Describe the scenarios in a cause-effect way by contemplating variations to the influence factors and plausible future developments in each scenario. These futures can be used for learning about plausible changes, and major driving forces, thus understanding the uncertainties involved in an informed way. These scenarios assist the decision makers to proceed with their committed course of action to achieve the targeted vision, simultaneously prepare them to be proactive in case of unexpected occurrences. Integration of scenario technique with roadmapping provides a powerful and simple tool for strategic planning with an understanding of plausible futures.

2.7

Intelligence, Context and Ubiquitous Computing Chapter 6 presents the architectural design and functional requirements of the Ubi-

HoPe, the conceptual framework developed as part of this study. Therefore, it is important to understand the underlying concepts and theories applied here. The following sections discuss inference of intelligence, definition and derivation of context, and the concept of ubiquitous computing.

2.7.1

Intelligence Discrete and disorganised values that hardly convey any meaning to the user are

termed data. The data need to undergo a rigorous process by which the values are associated correctly, organised and linked together to provide meaning, creating information. Knowledge is another higher level form in its usefulness as it puts together information that can be applied for solving problems (Awad & Ghaziri, 2003). Further processing and inferencing are required to choose applicable knowledge for a particular situation creating intelligence. The layers are depicted in the knowledge pyramid in Figure 2.2 adapted from Awad and Ghaziri, (2003).


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Figure 2.2: Transformation of Data to Intelligence Information of high quality is produced from raw data by relating the data items using specific rules; building such relationships between disparate data produces constraints. Such constraints are established and checked by conditions. The knowledge creation is achieved by setting conditions or constraints in selection of information and relating these to specific problems. Generation of intelligence requires conditions for choosing parts of knowledge, conditions to identify the context and problem specification. As one moves from data to higher levels of abstraction in the pyramid, the required relations increase, as well as the number of conditions or constraints. This in turn means involvement of more variables or parameters to store the conditions. As more variables are involved the complexity and number of inputs increase, as well as the chances of errors. Defining problems in abstract form that can be reused and deriving right contextual information are also complex issues that need to be handled. These factors constitute the problems in achieving autonomous generation of intelligence from a given set of data. The achievable autonomy and accuracy in the generation of information, knowledge, and intelligence decrease as one moves to the higher levels of the pyramid. This remains the greatest challenge in applications of Computational Intelligence (CI). In order to obtain the desired intelligence, correct data and many levels of processing are required. Currently the required data remain in disparate locations in heterogeneous systems and embedded in data sources pertaining to a wide range of formats. This is illustrated in Table 6.1 provided.


2.7.2

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Context The discussion given above shows that derivation of context is a requirement for

inferring intelligence from the existing knowledge. Context is understood intuitively and there are many definitions. In ubiquitous computing, context is used to identify the person, other objects present and resources available. Schmidt’s definition of context divides it into two categories, human factors and physical environments (O’Grady, O’Hare, Hristova, & Tynan, 2006). Human factors include information about users, their environment and their current activity. Physical environment refers to current location, infrastructure available and physical conditions. Another variation to the definition of context consists of the elements of the user, network connectivity and the environment (Sadeh, Gandon, & Kwon, 2006). This is defined for mobile computing. The user context consists of static – a user’s profile – and dynamic – user’s location and current activity (Pashtan, 2005). A user choosing to undertake a particular task pertinent to spatial and temporal bindings may imply requirement for a specific set of support services enabling the user to complete the task on hand. In this case the task becomes the dictating component for context derivation.

2.7.3

Ubiquitous Computing Weiser’s vision of ubiquitous computing (ubicomp) also known as pervasive com-

puting (percomp), referred to omnipresent computers in great variety, seamlessly integrated into the environment, functioning unobtrusively relieving people from tedious tasks (Weiser, 1991). Seamless integration of computing power to assist Home User activities is the ideal case as it provides the required services effortlessly. Ubiquity of information access, decision making and information generation by the Home User requires supporting systems and technologies in place. The ubiquitous computers, networks and services possibly lead to a highly computerised world characterised by pervasion of computational intelligence in the physical world (Satyanarayanan, 2001; Yamakami, 2006). These computers in different sizes enable people to fully concentrate on undertaking their task effortlessly (Snijders, 2005). With the advancement of ICT, Weiser’s vision on ubicomp is becoming reality, as evidenced by recently reported research activities. A context-aware phone system named UbiPhone enables a user to make a phone call with a single touch from a selected contact


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list (Tsai, Wang, & Hwang, 2008). UbiPhone incorporates context derivation to identify the location of callee; this is used to select the most appropriate communication channel and device to connect. Callee’s social network information is used to provide callee’s nearest person’s contact in case of an emergency call. This system collects, stores, and derives intelligence from the locations and calls made by the user. This is a good example of simple, but effective way of using ubiquitous computing for design of human-centric applications. Another example of a ubiquitous system following the principles of ubicomp is a system named Ubiquitous City Context-Aware Service Agent System (UCASS) (M. Lee et al., 2008); this system interconnects residents within apartments with service providers in the city to provide context-aware service. This system is more complex due to the additional sensors installed in apartments and vehicles, and the software consisting of many modules. These systems establish that, with the current technology, it is possible to build practical context-aware systems providing ubiquitous intelligence services. While ubicomp is about the physical or real world with pervasive computing, webbased services produce a cyberworld (Kunii, 2004) with an increasing number of virtualised e-things. The integration of ubicomp with web-based computing and the resulting mutual interactions between the real world and the virtual e-world can provide the much needed ubiquitous or ambient intelligence for naturally mobile people (Yamakami, 2006). Devices within an ambient intelligent environment adapt themselves to the needs of users or even be in anticipation of future needs. Web services address user interest in a number of categories such as general information, travel, entertainment, ecommerce and networking delivered over the Internet (Pashtan, 2005). Users can access these services “anytime anywhere” with the wireless Internet and new generation of mobile networks that support data services, for example NTT DoCoMo network. This study proposes application of these technologies to develop products and services for home and personal life management providing ubiquitous intelligence unobtrusively.

2.8

Chapter Summary This chapter has provided an overview of developments in the HA industry during

the past quarter of a century. The author has analysed the past developments to uncover


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the main focus, products and services delivered and has evaluated the successes and failures. The analysis conducted in this chapter reveals that the HA industry has been mostly driven by technology based visions and it has failed to achieve envisaged market penetration. This chapter has discussed the current state of HA developments and has thus provided the present perspective of the HA industry. This study also reveals the absence of a technology roadmap to guide the HA industry. The goal of this research is to develop a technology roadmap that provides a systematic method to identify market needs and products meeting market needs; this can guide industries to formulate strategic technology investment plans based on products and services meeting market needs. This chapter has also discussed the roadmapping process, provided a taxonomy of roadmaps, described the generic contents of a roadmap document and evaluated the benefits of roadmapping. This chapter also discussed the lack of formal evaluation methods for roadmaps and existing problems with roadmapping. As roadmapping is mostly initiated from a needs-based vision created with collective input, its application in Home Automation is limited due to the existence of very diverse users and divergent industries which are barriers to concerted collaboration. To rectify this problem, the author has proposed integrating scenarios with roadmapping as the former provides a scientific way of creating plausible futures. These can be used as a mechanism for learning from the future, and monitoring and reviewing the roadmap with improved accuracy. Further work can formalise the integration of these two methods with evaluation procedures. The last section of this chapter, Section 2.7, has provided an overview of underlying concepts and theories applied in Ubiquitous computing as applied in the development of the conceptual framework of UbiHoPe in Chapter 6. A basic understanding of these concepts are essential for following the conceptual framework provided as part of this study.

Chapter 3

Research Method The purpose of a research activity is knowledge creation. There are various research methods in practice and it is important to select the most appropriate method to carry out the research for achieving successful outcome. This chapter presents a brief study on existing research methods and this knowledge is used to ensure that an appropriate research method is chosen. This chapter also provides information on the research design and implementation followed in this study. This research follows a qualitative research method integrating roadmapping and scenarios. Steps involved in following this research method are discussed in this chapter. Section 3.1 discusses different types of research methods, the steps involved in carrying out the research activity and possible evaluation methods. Section 3.2 introduces the structure and implementation steps of the research process followed in this study. Section 3.3 describes the method used to identify market segments using the concept of Family Life Cycle. This section also details the development of the system model using process modelling techniques and the analysis carried out using UML activity diagrams and use case diagram. Section 3.3.2 describes the use of the scenario technique to learn future home user lifestyle trends. Section 3.3.3 explains Requirement Elicitation of Future Users by Systems Scenarios (REFUSS), developed as part of this study to derive the process automation needs from the system analysis results and the scenarios. Section 3.4 elaborates how the concepts of new products and services are derived using conceptual modelling and Section 3.5 describes the method used in arriving at technology needs and technology investment strategies. Section 3.6 provides a brief discussion on evaluation of this thesis and the roadmap developed. 60

Chapter 3: Research Method

3.1

61

Research Methodology Research activity can be viewed as building a house in a forest, for analogy; forest

is disorderly, difficult to explore quickly and the source of resources. The house builder needs to select suitable site, collect necessary components, and put them together. This requires tools, techniques, and structured procedures. In the same way an investigator desiring to create knowledge from a field of mostly unknown characteristics requires an appropriate research method that can guide the investigator in the knowledge creation process. A research method is the guidance for carrying out the investigation in an effective way to ensure yielding the perceived outcome. Research methods are classified as quantitative, qualitative, and mixed where a combination of qualitative and quantitative approaches are applied. Quantitative research relates key aspects or properties, states or characters using quantified variables whereas qualitative research rigorously examines processes and meanings to identify properties, and key variables (Labuschagne, 2009). The choice of a method depends on the outcome to be achieved and the type of knowledge to be created. If the researcher makes knowledge claims on pragmatic grounds–problem-oriented, consequence-oriented– mixed method approach is the one to follow. The categorisation of the research method is also based on the data collection methods used. Qualitative methods use data collected from smaller population, but with richer detail. Example strategies used for qualitative research include ethnographies, grounded theory, case studies, phenomenological research, and narrative research. Mixed method research uses one of sequential procedures, concurrent procedures or transformative procedures and these classifications are based on the order of use of quantitative and qualitative methods (Creswell, 2003). Research method defines data collection, analysis and formulation of results, and validation of results. Research can be viewed as an input-process-output paradigm. The input is decided by the data collection that include the sources of data, sampling related details, and method of collecting data. Technology roadmapping in itself is an approach to research from the point of view of intended pragmatic knowledge creation and a methodology or strategy that governs choice of methods. Technology roadmapping falls into the category of qualitative method approach due to the need for in-dept, richer data required for the system modelling and statistical data required for the market identification. This is also verified by the statement of ”technology roadmapping can be seen as a tool for research”


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(Wimmer, Codagnone, & Ma, 2007). The purpose of technology roadmapping is to produce a roadmap that will be implemented during the next 10-15 years. Due to this longer time span involved for the intended use of outcome from this work, roadmapping requires futures study. Scenarios is gaining popularity in futures research as it helps to create images of desirable futures and scenarios are multifaceted and holistic (Weingand, 1995). There are different approaches used in the construction of scenarios such as Delphi method, iteration-through synopsis and cross-impact technique. Scenarios constructed following cross-impact technique uses quantitative measures to establish cross-impact of one aspect on all other aspects. As the scenarios provide richer details of plausible futures, this method follows transformative procedures as it uses both quantitative and qualitative data (Creswell, 2003). Technology roadmapping and scenarios are generally considered as qualitative research methods for futures study (Wimmer et al., 2007; Bishop et al., 2007).

3.1.1

Data Collection Considering the analogy of building a house in the forest, a house built using

leaves alone will not be in shape or useful. Similarly, correctly chosen sources and extracted data are critical for producing the desired outcome of the research. This itself can be an assurance for the reliability and validity of the research outcome. Qualitative research uses data collected mainly using in-dept open-ended interviews, direct observation, focus group interviews, and written documents (Labuschagne, 2009). This study has deviated from this general method of data collection for the following reasons. 1. Limitation to demographically biased data 2. Unsuccessful research outcomes of previous studies following such data collection in HA 3. Aim to develop theoretically founded framework abstracting specific user characteristics 4. Objective to develop a top-down approach Therefore, this study has collected data on all aspects of home and personal life, from existing literature in various fields including HA, health, education, diet, information


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and communication technology, social sciences, national and international statistical studies. The vast references used to arrive at conclusive input became the strength of this thesis in shaping the final outcome to the desired quality.

3.1.2

Analysis As this work has followed the research methods of technology roadmapping and

scenarios from futures studies, data analysis is carried out using the generic procedures available within these research methods. These generic procedures are customised and linked, to suit this study as explained in the following sections. Process modelling techniques applied here are well accepted method for requirement analysis of information systems. The available process modelling technique is customised with extensions to suit this study. In case of scenarios, data analysis, and scenario building are carried out following scenario technique developed by Van der Heijden (Heijden, 2005). This technique is widely used by consultants and organisations (Bishop et al., 2007).

3.1.3

Reliability and Validity Re-visiting the analogy of building a house in the forest, the validity of this exercise

depends on the house that is in shape and useful. The reliability of the house is generally examined by the quality of supporting frames and the building procedures used. The quality of material used and visible features are proof of validity to an extend. One measure of successful research outcome is objectivity and this could be demonstrated by reporting theoretically sound results (Kirk & Miller., 1986). In qualitative research reliability is defined as ”the degree to which the finding is independent of accidental circumstances and validity is the degree to which the finding is interpreted in a correct way” (Kirk & Miller., 1986). The validity can be further understood from the notions of ”apparent validity, instrumental validity, and theoretical validity” (Kirk & Miller., 1986). The notion of apparent validity is illusory as the name implies, while instrumental validity is based on criterion or can be referred to as pragmatic. Theoretical validity can be established based on the procedures followed.


3.2

64

Research Design and Implementation The literature review conducted in Chapter 2 establishes the need for a technology

roadmap for Home Automation. This study seeks to develop an Initial Technology Roadmap for Home Automation (ITRHA) that identifies the market needs, products to satisfy these needs, and technology investment strategies. A technology roadmap is developed using roadmapping, a customisable learning process that assists innovation and knowledge creation (Probert & Radnor, 2003; Li & Kameoka, 2003). The discussion provided in Section 3.1 also establishes that roadmapping integrated with scenarios is a qualitative research method that can be followed. Technology roadmapping provides a high level framework, but procedural details need to be developed for each application. To rectify the lack of formal methods for eliciting user requirements and user need variations over the years, this study has developed a novel method integrating process modelling and scenario technique within the framework of roadmapping. Chapter 2.6 provides a detailed discussion on roadmapping and scenarios. The initial roadmap pioneered in this work is exploratory in nature. The following steps are used to develop the ITRHA and these steps forms the research design that integrates roadmapping and scenarios. 1. Identify market and market needs 2. Identify potential products and services 3. Investigate technology needs and technology investment strategies The output from each of these steps and intermediate steps forms part of the ITRHA document. As these steps define only the output to be produced and there are no standardised and coherent methods available as part of the roadmapping process, the author has devised suitable methods for each of the steps. The above listed steps with methods devised by the author and the existing formal methods used are illustrated in Figure 3.1. There are no existing formal method for the identification of market and market needs; this is one of the major problems faced by the HA industry. Moreover, there is no existing procedure to identify future market needs required in strategic planning for technology investment in HA. To address these problems this study has developed a unique method consisting of a number of cohesive stages theoretically founded on formal procedures.


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Identification of Market and Market Needs

Identification of Influence Factors Creation of Impact/Predictability Graph

Generation of Future Lifestyle Scenarios

Definition of Family Life Cycle Development of Family System

Analysis of Processes within Family System

Derivation of Process Automation Needs

Derivation of Products & Services

Identification of Technology Needs and Technology Investment Strategies

Figure 3.1: Steps In Research Method

Process Modelling

Use Case Diagram and Activity Diagram

Requirement Elictation of Future Users by Systems Scenario (REFUSS)


3.3

66

Identification of Market and Market Needs Identification of market and market needs involves deriving user requirements.

This task is extremely complex due to the large diversity of users demographically, socially, economically and culturally. The market consist of various home users and the market needs are dependent on the processes or functions carried out by these users. Successful identification of market needs requires knowledge of current processes and users as well as evolution of these two components along the chosen time line of 10–15 years. A systematic identification of market segments requires knowledge about the users and the activities carried out by the different user categories; this can be used to understand the plausible market size variations along the time line. For this purpose a concept of Family Life Cycle is defined. This concept depicts the dynamism and temporal requirements of a family by identifying distinguishable stages and associated responsibilities undertaken by a family as it evolves through time. Understanding distinguishable stages of the family life are necessary to obtain insight into varying functionalities and resulting alterations in home user requirements. This information is used to segregate market segments from the total population. For example a family in Phase 3 maps to families with children below 18 years of age. Target market size estimations are done by applying this knowledge to available census data.

3.3.1

System Modelling and Analysis It is required to define the context, scope, and boundaries of the roadmap. A

system model is required as the scope can be clearly understood by analysing the system and exposing the processes within the system. Implementation of a technology roadmap is a long-term undertaking and during this period many reviews, evaluations, re-assessment and update of the roadmap are required. These activities can be carried out only with comprehensive documentation of system details. A systemic approach has not been followed in past developments in HA and therefore a full system view is unavailable. Discussion provided in Section 2.4 establishes that methods such as ethnographic study, and surveying have been used in previous studies, with the results revealing very limited information on home user requirements. Such results lacked a top level view covering all aspects of home life and could not be used for building an abstract model to represent all home users – processes, environment, and boundaries. A system model can be used to establish the


External Entity

System or Process

Hybrid Process

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Data Flow

Resource Flow

Data Store

Resource Store

Figure 3.2: Symbols Used In Diagrams of Family System Reference Model theoretical foundation and a framework for further work. Therefore, the primary step required is to define the targeted system that can be further decomposed into subsystems, and processes in its defined environment using systems analysis. The following sections describe how this model is developed and used as part of the roadmapping process. Process Modelling Process modelling has been the chosen approach for defining the system model; the Data Flow Diagram (DFD) following Gane and Sarson symbol set is used for communicating the model as this provides the most suitable technique to depict the whole system, its boundary, entities, processes and interaction with external systems (Valacich et al., 2001; Shelly et al., 2006). Process Modelling is a methodology used in structured analysis to elicit information system requirements by decomposing the system into processes that receive, manipulate, and send data. From study conducted on modelling approaches used for systems analysis, it is found that process-oriented models are appropriate to uncover processes and object-oriented models are well suited when the focus is on structure (Agarwal, De, & Sinha, 1999). The original Gane and Sarson symbol set is extended to include symbols for resource flow, resource store, hard process, and hybrid process, meeting the requirements of this study. The notations used in the DFDs to represent different elements are depicted in Figure 3.2.


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Family System Reference Model The system development is based on families and extended to other households. As the HA market consists users who are extremely diverse demographically, culturally, politically and economically, it is essential to identify market needs that are immune to or persistent in spite of these diversities. A detailed analysis of householders and especially families is conducted to expose very fundamental and most commonly occurring processes, input requirements of these processes, sources of inputs, output destination, and other environmental factors affecting these processes. A Family in Phase 3 of the Family Life Cycle is used for the modelling purpose as in this phase a Family uses maximum services and has the most complex process use. The author has developed a reference model named Family System using this knowledge and applying process modelling techniques; this model defines the terminology, and concepts as well as identifies important processes, communication, and subsystems. The environment or context of the Family System (FS) is established by identifying elements external to Family, defined as External Entities, and the interaction of FS with External Entities. Family Process is defined to represent tasks carried out by family members. The interaction between Family and External Entities is used to understand the context of the Family System; seven major Family Processes are identified that encompass most aspects of home life. Seven subsystems are identified within the FS managing the Family Processes and these are further analysed to understand the details of processes involving labour, information management processes and intellectual tasks. Use Case Diagram and Activity Diagram The modelling and analysis carried out using process modelling provides a static view of the system detailing its context, subsystems, processes, and data flows. As this is a static view, information on beginning and end of process, control signals, and distinction of different resources are absent. The author has chosen Meals subsystem as an example for analysing the dynamic view of the processes as this is a complex and essential subsystem. Business process modelling techniques, following the Eriksson-Penker Business Extension of UML activity diagrams, are used to depict dynamic view of processes within the Meals subsystem (Eriksson & Penker, 2000). The Eriksson-Penker extension is the most suitable technique to illustrate the input, processes, output and object flow in a simple format that


69

can be followed by a wider audience other than information system specialists. Use case diagram following UML notation is used to illustrate the user view in the case of automating identified processes within a subsystem (Object Management Group Inc., 2004). Four main subprocesses within the Meals subsystem involving intellectual tasks are analysed extensively, exposing the details of process execution, use of resources at various stages, required user interaction and control signals. A use case diagram following UML notation is used to depict a user view of the Meals subsystem, clearly illustrating the functions executing the identified processes and the required user interaction. These detailed analyses are used to explore the process automation opportunities and resources required for automating the process in terms of input data. They are also used to reveal the user involvement in process execution.

3.3.2

Scenarios The user requirements or market needs for HA products and services are invariably

dependent on the prevailing lifestyle of home users, which is influenced by a large number of social, environmental, economical, and political factors. Scenario technique is an effective method when used in conjunction with roadmapping to get insight into possible products or product needs, especially in uncertain, dynamic environments (Strauss & Radnor, 2004; Bray & Garcia, 2004). Scenarios are developed to understand the plausible future lifestyles of home users and the market drivers influencing these lifestyles. Van der Heijden’s approach is followed in developing scenarios (Heijden, 2005) where an impact/predictability graph is used to rank the external influence factors. Scenarios are created from the future projections of these factors. Refer to Section 2.6.5 for a full discussion of this approach. Market Drivers The lifestyle followed by home users are dependent on many environmental factors which influence the market need; the most influential factors are considered as the market drivers. A large number of drivers that are issues or trends are identified that influence home user lifestyle based on statistical data and other literature. Twelve to fifteen influence factors that have a major impact on the lifestyle are chosen. The derivation of market drivers is provided in Section 5.5. Each one of the market drivers chosen is given a priority number between the


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range of 0 and 3 inclusive. An influence matrix is used to map the values of the chosen factors, interrelate the variations on these factors and obtain the total impact of a factor on other factors as well as how much a factor is totally impacted or uncertain. An impact/predictability graph developed using the values from the influence matrix is used to identify the most impacting or uncertain drivers. This graph serves as a basis for developing a number of future lifestyle scenarios that can be used to visualise plausible lifestyles that may emerge in the next 15 to 20 years. Three future home lifestyle scenarios are developed by contemplating positive and negative variations to the drivers. The development of future lifestyle trends using the scenario technique is also used in deriving products that can satisfy user needs. A number of automation scenarios are created that provide intuitive ideas on new products.

3.3.3

Derivation of Process Automation Needs The requirement here is the formulation of a futuristic vision identifying areas of

everyday home life where automation can be of assistance. The system model provides information on the current processes and input/ouput requirements and thus process knowledge. Scenarios provide information on the future lifestyle trends of home users. It is essential to relate the process knowledge with user related information to derive the automation needs suitable for users following a specific lifestyle. Currently, a formal method is absent to achieve this essential requirement. Requirement Elicitation of Future Users by Systems Scenarios (REFUSS) Requirement Elicitation for Future Users by Systems Scenarios (REFUSS) is a new method developed as part of this study to rectify the above mentioned deficiency. It provides a systematic way of deriving automation requirements by relating the process knowledge and characteristics of future users following a particular lifestyle. Following REFUSS the process knowledge obtained from system analysis is used to extract a list of Process Attributes that describe the nature of a process from the users’ perspective. A number of User Characteristics that describe the state of a user following a particular lifestyle are identified. Demanding Process Attribute defines processes that can be difficult to execute due to the particular User Characteristics of home users following a particular lifestyle. Following


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these definitions and norms, processes having Demanding Process Attributes becomes the target for automation. REFUSS provides a framework to understand, communicate, evaluate and reassess the process automation needs with theoretical foundation. One of the important aspect of a technology roadmap is the strategic planning involved with a long-term futuristic vision and the requirement for regular review and update. The formal and systematic way of deriving automation targets using REFUSS ensures that any time during implementation of the roadmap there is a well-defined documentation providing logical reasoning for review and update.

3.4

Identification of Potential Products and Services The task here is to convert these process automation needs into feasible products

and services that can be marketed successfully. The requirement here is to group processes to be automated and identify components or systems to achieve the transformation. Derivation of new products and services is largely an innovative task and there are no standardised methods to apply here. As the roadmap developed is more exploratory in nature, many product ideas and service opportunities are exposed, rather than just detailing one product.

3.4.1

Development of a Conceptual Framework and Architecture for Home Information Management The development of a conceptual framework for automation of many of the iden-

tified Soft Processes establishes more explicit ideas on potential products and services. The systems analysis conducted at the beginning revealed the amount of information processing done during daily life and the criticality of information management and intelligent decision making for efficient and smooth functioning of a household. Knowledge obtained from the detailed analysis of the Family system, the automation needs of Soft Processes derived using the REFUSS, and the Home user ubiquity and requirement for ubiquitous intelligence and computing are used to develop the conceptual framework for the Ubiquitous Intelligence System named UbiHoPe.


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eHome model A conceptual model named eHome is taken as the central unit of UbiHoPe facilitating many of the functional requirements. The eHome model illustrates the functionality of a system providing automated information management facilities and the technical layers required for such a system. The eHome model serves the purpose of communicating the objectives and assists in conveying potential opportunities for product or service development. The UbiHoPe framework provides details of potential product automating information management and intelligence services, the hardware and software components required, the modifications required for existing Point of Sale Terminal, and the potential role of a Home Information Service Provider (HISP).

3.4.2

Derivation of other product ideas Knowledge obtained from system analysis is used to categorise the Family Process

into three sets: processes involving labour, processes involving information management, and processes requiring both labour and information. From the knowledge of the labour intensive processes and the study of literature exploring automation opportunities a number of potential products are identified.

3.5

Investigation of Technology Needs and Technology Investment Strategies A technology roadmap serves as a communication tool to express the objectives

and the reason for investing in technology. Home is a place where multiple technologies converge and this makes the analysis and derivation of technology needs more complex. The eHome model is used for further analysis in understanding and deriving technology needs for product ideas automating Soft Processes. The eHome model is used to expose the functions, input data requirements, data processing and storage requirements, and the potential software requirements. This model also clearly reveals data sources and data conversions involved and the modifications required to existing systems or components. This model is used to derive the technology needs for a potential implementation that automates some of the information management


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related services.

3.5.1

Technology Requirements Detailed study of components in the eHome reveals the technology requirements

if the eHome model is to be developed into a fully functional system providing complete automation of information management services for a household. Detailed study of current technology in data extraction and information integration is conducted to understand the technology gaps and further research and development requirements. In view of the home users’ problems in data entry the data requirement and data sources are studied. The large number of data sources originating from service providers as identified in External Entities are also investigated for the type and format of the input data. The knowledge obtained from these studies is used to derive technology needs for implementing the eHome. A brief study of web service technology is also conducted to identify the gaps and requirement for technology investment. The other products identified belong to the robotics area. Current capabilities of robotics technology are studied to derive problems in materialising the proposed products. From this study it is found that there are gaps, so technology investment strategies are suggested for developing the proposed products in an incremental fashion.

3.6

Evaluation This research has followed qualitative research method integrating roadmapping

with scenarios. Evaluation of the outcome of this study can be done using theoretical validity and objectivity as discussed in Section 3.1. The output from this study is a technology roadmap the quality of the roadmap produced could be assessed using the criteria for assessment of roadmaps as discussed in Section 2.6.2. The research method described in the previous sections is customised to suit this specific study. It is ensured that there is theoretical foundation and that the output quality is achieved. As there are no objective tests to measure the quality of output or the effectiveness of roadmapping process, it is difficult to prove these. It is also important to understand that “There are no primary physical reference standards against which one can benchmark the roadmap product” (Kostoff & Schaller, 2001). The actual deployment of a roadmap


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may take over a decade and just achieving the predicted result may not ensure that the roadmap has been developed based on the best possible vision. Futuristic vision formed by innovative product ideas, best technology investment suggestions, clear understanding of current technology capability, and right selection of technology areas are some of the measures for a good roadmap. Other requirements are global data awareness, and the new knowledge produced by the roadmapping process. At the initial stage assessment can be based on the logical correctness and transparency of methods followed, and on the quality of data used. These measures are as per the discussions provided in Section 2.6.2 on the assessment of roadmap. Based on the above facts the results of this study can be evaluated using the following criteria: 1. Objectivity This is to ensure that the objectives listed in the beginning of the work have been achieved in a systematic way. 2. Theoretical Validity This is the basis for the reliability of the results to ensure that the outcome is not reached by “accidental circumstances” (Kirk & Miller., 1986). This is further reinforced from the fact that theoretical validity depends on the procedures followed. These procedures refer to analysis techniques followed and interpretation of results from the analysis. 3. Assessment of roadmap A number of criteria are listed in Section 2.6.2 and these include understanding of the evolution of technology linking the past, present and plausible future development. This could be verified by the suggested products and their proposed technology needs. It is essential to understand the past and present technology capability to propose products that could be developed with reasonable technology investment. Another criterion is the use of global data and this ensures the quality of data used for analysis. A roadmap being an operational tool it can be assessed against the proposed future actions in terms of technology investment leading to innovative products with target market.


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Using the above mentioned criteria the roadmap produced as part of this study formulates vision with innovative product ideas and creates a new perspective to the HA industry. The roadmapping process followed in this study has developed theoretically founded formal methods. Referring to Section 3.1, theoretical validity is the measure of evaluation in case of qualitative research.

3.7

Chapter Summary An overview research methodology provided in Section 3.1 of this chapter is used

to establish the appropriateness of research method chosen for this study. This chapter has discussed in detail the research method used in establishing the appropriateness for systematically solving the defined research problem. Section 3.2 discusses the research design and the steps used in implementing this research work. Section 3.3 describes the development of the Family System reference model and the use of REFUSS to identify market needs integrating the process knowledge and user characteristics derived from scenarios. Conceptual modelling used for converting the identified process automation needs to potential products are discussed in Section 3.4. Methods used for identifying technology gaps and technology investment needs are discussed in Section 3.5. Section 3.6 discusses applicable evaluation criteria. The methods discussed in this chapter are systematically followed in the following chapters to formulate the ITRHA. The following chapter presents the system model used to define the context and scope.

Chapter 4

Family System Reference Model The primary step, required in the development of a technology roadmap, is to define the context, scope, and boundaries of the targeted system; this requires the targeted system to be defined (Bray & Garcia, 1997). As evident from the discussion provided in Section 2.5.3, a systemic approach has not been followed in past developments in HA, therefore full system view is unavailable. A well defined system is required for further analysis to understand user requirements and thus derive market needs. The system model and analysis details form part of the roadmap document that is essential for future review and updating of the roadmap (Probert & Radnor, 2003). This study follows a unique and novel method applying modelling technique to develop a system model that can be used to understand the processes and automation issues. This is in view of obtaining only partial information on user requirements by applying user involved methods as depicted in Sections 2.4.2 and 2.4.3. It is required to define a system encompassing overall aspects of home life, providing a full system view that can be used for further analysis and decomposition. This chapter presents a reference model named Family System for the purpose of formally defining the context, scope, and boundaries of the roadmap. The Family System can be used to understand user requirements and thus identify products and services that meet realistic user needs. Section 4.1 defines the family and home user as well as the concept of the Family Life Cycle to depict the dynamism and temporal requirements of a family. Section 4.2 defines the boundary of the Family System, the different types of processes, and the entities external to the Family System, illustrates the interaction of Family System with the external entities and identifies processes within the Family System. Section 4.3 identifies seven subsystems managing these processes and analyses the subsystems in detail, revealing 76

Chapter 4: Family System Reference Model

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subprocesses, inputs required for these, output produced and data storage requirements. A very detailed analysis of Meals Subsystem is carried out in Section 4.4 using UML Use Case diagrams and activity diagrams exposing process resources and control signals and the interaction of users. Section 4.5 conducts a study of the analysis results by highlighting the home information management needs, user mobility and need for ubiquitous information access.

4.1

Family Focus In the Home Automation Industry, “home” is almost interchangeably used to

refer to a family as well as a dwelling place. Before proceeding further it is important to distinguish between the words home and family. The theoretical definition of home is a dwelling place and generally used for a building where people live.

4.1.1

Family

Definition 4.1 Family is referred to as the traditional structured society consisting of one or two parents and their children. Any person belonging to this structured society is called a family member. Definition 4.2 Home User is any person who owns and or occupies a home and uses the products and services of the HA industry. A Home User is not necessarily a family member, but a family member is a Home User. A Home User occupying a house in one location can be a family member of a family located in another geographic location that may be in another country. Family is a dynamic system moving through time and members of a family share history and future with at least three and often four or even five generations (McGoldrick & Carter, 2003). The concept of Family Life Cycle is used to identify important stages in family life as it evolves through time. Understanding distinguishable stages of the family life is necessary to obtain insight into varying functionalities and resulting alterations in requirements.


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Phase 1 Income Generation, Household Maintenance, Diet, Recreation

Phase 5 : Health Care, Household Maintenance, Diet, Entertainment

Phase 4: Income Generation, Diet, School/ Tertiary Education, Health Care, Household Maintenance

Phase 2 Income Generation, Household Maintenance, Diet, Child care, Health Care, Recreation

Phase 3 Income Generation, Education, Household Maintenance, Diet, Child care, Health Care, Recreation

Figure 4.1: Family Life Cycle: Different Phases and Prominent Responsibilities in Each Phase

4.1.2

Family Life Cycle Union of two committed adults marks the beginning of the Family Life Cycle.

There are variations to this traditional concept but this concept is followed here for simplicity. A family has a growing stage, when responsibilities keep increasing due to addition of members by child birth or adoption, and the growing needs of offsprings. It goes through a shrinking stage when responsibilities reduce, as members are lost due to death or adult members leave the family to start independent life resulting in extended family. This study accounts family as a mobile unit and a family may occupy different houses located in various parts of the world for reasons such as business, employment, or education. In this study the Family Life Cycle is defined with the following distinguishable phases: • Phase One: Union of Committed Couple. In this phase main responsibilities of the


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couple are earning income, maintaining a balanced diet, household maintenance and recreation. • Phase Two: Family with young child/children. Phase Two is marked with the addition of children to the family bringing increased responsibilities of child care. Health care becomes more complex with extra tasks and the same applies to the maintenance of balanced diet. • Phase Three: Family with school-going children. In Phase Three the family is confronted with additional responsibility as the child or children commence schooling. A family in this phase could have very demanding responsibilities in terms of time and resources as child care needs of younger children can be overlapping with school education of elder ones. • Phase Four: Family with adolescents. This can be considered as the beginning of the shrinking stage as the child care responsibilities are completed. Strategic management of time and money are critical in this phase to satisfy the requirements of children involved in formal education and extra-curricular activities. • Phase Five: Family in later life (McGoldrick & Carter, 2003). Retired couple have fewer responsibilities compared to the family in previous phases. Health care becomes an important aspect as well as social life. The progress of family through phase one to phase five engaging in various areas of responsibilities is illustrated in Fig. 4.1.

4.2

Family System This section introduces a model named Family System by depicting Family as one

system interacting with elements outside family. The reference model defines the terminology, and concepts as well as identifies important processes, communication and subsystems. Process modelling has been the chosen approach for defining the model and Data Flow Diagram following Gane and Sarson symbol set is used for communicating the model as this provides the most suitable technique to depict the whole system, its boundary, entities, processes and interaction with external systems (Valacich et al., 2001; Shelly et al., 2006). The Gane and Sarson symbol set is extended to include symbols for resource flow, resource


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store and hybrid process to suit this work. The symbols used in the diagrams are illustrated in Figure 3.2. This model is not a design specification for developing a system; rather, it provides a framework that defines the context, scope and boundaries of the targeted system for Technology Roadmapping purpose. This study has chosen family to represent the current user for the modelling purposes, as family has the maximum complexity in terms of activities handling responsibilities, interaction with external elements, resources usage, and dynamism, compared to the individual Home User. Commencing with a model having maximum complexity, it is easy to modify the model to represent other Home Users having lesser responsibilities. The Family System (FS) exists in an environment and systems external to FS impact the performance of the FS. The environment of FS can be understood by identifying systems external to Family and the interaction of FS with those systems or elements. Definition 4.3 An External Entity is any functional unit that provides and or receives any form of service or goods to the family and is not part of the Family. Definition 4.4 Data flow is any input received or any output sent by the Family System, subsystems or processes within Family System that can be represented in electronic form. Definition 4.5 Resource flow is any material input received or any output sent by the Family System, subsystems or processes within Family System that cannot be represented, stored or transmitted in electronic form via a computer network. Definition 4.6 Data Store is any input, output or intermediate results that are stored in electronic form. Definition 4.7 Resource Store is any material stock that cannot be stored in electronic form. Definition 4.8 Soft Process is any process that has only Data flows as input and output. Definition 4.9 Hard Process is any process that has only Resource flows as input and output. Definition 4.10 Hybrid Process is any process that has both Data flows and Resource flows as input and or output.


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There are variations to the number of services used by the Family, External Entities involved and the interaction with External Entities in different phases of the Family Life Cycle. For the modelling purpose a Family in Phase 3 is considered, as this phase is at the top of the growing stage having increased complexity in responsibilities undertaken by the Family. Based on this and the definitions above, External Entities considered in this research are: 1. Finance Service Providers 2. Insurance Providers 3. Energy Suppliers 4. Health Service Providers 5. Government Agencies 6. Education Service Providers 7. Child Care Facilitators 8. Professional Bodies 9. Employer / Potential Employers 10. Communication Facilitators 11. Product Suppliers 12. Extended Families and Friends 13. Religious / Social Groups. The list of External Entities provided above is not exhaustive. An External Entity can be added or removed from the environment of FS based on its interaction with the Family System.


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Interaction of Family System with External Entities An overall view of the Family System interacting with External Entities is depicted by identifying the Data flows as shown in Fig. 4.2. Understanding the Data flows between the Family System and the External Entities can be used to analyse the volume and frequency of data communication leading to information management tasks. Resource flows are not shown at this level of the model for clarity and simplicity.

4.2.1

Family System Processes

Definition 4.11 A Family Process is a set of related activities carried out by family member/s providing input to produce defined output and this can be done regularly or occasionally. Even though Family Process is defined in perspective of Family most of the processes identified can be customised to meet the needs of other Home Users who do not belong to structured families. This study has identified seven Family Processes as listed below. 1. Managing Finance 2. Planning and Preparing Meals 3. Family Health Care 4. Supporting Formal Education 5. Household Maintenance 6. Engaging In Occupation 7. Recreation and Social Life Maintenance Each of the above listed processes is briefly described below. Managing Finance Definition 4.12 Managing Finance includes all activities carried out by family members, individually or in group, that are money related.


Product& Service Details Special Notification Monthly Statements Transaction Records Applications / Enquiries Contact Details

Finance Service Providers

Other Notification Progress Report Fee Invoice News Letter Application For Admission School Fees Leave Application Parental Notes Carer Fees Service Information Carer Payment

Application Invoice Renewal Notice Insurance Policy Payment

Insurance Providers

Supply Request Usage Bill Bill Payment Fault Report Contact Information

Energy Suppliers

Communication Facilitators

Service Request Bill Supply Charges Product Information Service Problem Personal Details Event Notification News and Events

Education Service Providers

Child Care Facilitators

Care Application

Tax Return Election Notice Council Rent Notice Rent Payment Tax Information Vehicle Reg. Notice

Government Agencies

Extended Families / Friends

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Family System

Prescription Medical Report Appointment Request Medical Charges Physician Details Medical Payment

Health Service Providers

Job Contract Employer Details Remuneration Job Application

Employer/ Potential Employers

Fee Notice Membership Events Notification Membership Application Membership Payment News & Events Purchase List Purchase Receipt Manuals Price Payment Warranty

Figure 4.2: Interaction of Family System with External Entities

Professional Bodies/ Social Groups

Grocery/ Product Suppliers


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These activities include making payments to External Entities, receiving remuneration, budgeting, monitoring expenditure, account keeping, investing and strategic planning on income generation and spending. Information management tasks of data collection, recording, and reporting as well as knowledge extraction and decision making play a major role in Managing Finance that is essential for a happy and successful family life. Planning and Preparing Meals Definition 4.13 Planning and Preparing Meals includes all activities carried out by family member/s individually or in group that are related to food. These activities include administering grocery shopping list, purchasing grocery, inventory control, deciding menu for meals, following formulated diet, cooking, and cleaning kitchen area and utensils. Meals include main meals as well as snacks and drinks consumed by members of the family, as per customs or practices followed. Collecting and storing complete information on food products and recipes and mapping them to the individual needs of family members is necessary to regularly follow a formulated balanced diet. Family Health Care Definition 4.14 Family Health Care includes all activities carried out by family member/s individually or in group to ensure good health for each of the family members. These activities include monitoring health check parameters such as weight, blood pressure etc., consulting doctor, obtaining vaccinations, purchase and consumption of medicine, monitoring of diet and exercise, and maintaining health records. Other tasks included are personal care, maintenance of appropriate clothing, and body hygiene. Generally, health records remain with health practitioners and the medical history of a person may be scattered among different heath practitioners in different geographical locations. Supporting Formal Education Definition 4.15 Supporting Formal Education includes all activities undertaken by family members to support formal school and or tertiary education of offsprings. Children’s education is a major responsibility for parents and it can span a period of twenty years or more in the case of a family with more than one child. Adult members of the


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family updating their skills can also be part of this process. During this period, parents are responsible for maintaining regular communication with Education Service Providers – receiving forms, newsletters, periodical progress reports, invoices, and other details. It is also required, on a regular basis, to monitor school events, schedule time to attend required events and provide assistance with home studies, get money allocated and monitor academic performance. Household Maintenance Definition 4.16 Household Maintenance includes all activities carried out by family member/s to maintain a house and vehicle/s, if any, that are functioning well to provide a safe and comfortable environment and transport for the family. The house may be owner occupied, leased or rented. Main tasks involved are organising utility services, paying bills, recording equipment purchase details, organising insurance and premium payment, monitoring and control lighting, security and HVAC, undertaking cleaning and repairs of household appliances and vehicles if any, and organising supply of consumables and other amenities. Engaging In Occupation Definition 4.17 Engaging In Occupation includes all activities carried out by family member/s to identify, obtain, prosper and maintain occupation with remuneration. Adult members in a Family are engaged in occupation. This could be a business run by the Family and in this case, custom made software is generally used for various aspects of the system. This study considers cases where member/s of the family are engaged in paid employment. This necessitates recording employer details, preparing applications and resume, and storing appointment letters and other formal notifications received from employer, recording and maintaining potential employers’ list, and monitoring job market. Recreation and Social Life Maintenance Definition 4.18 Recreation and Social life Maintenance includes all activities undertaken by family members to organise social activities, and maintain social life.


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This process is responsible for maintaining contacts with extended families, social groups, and friends, and organising activities such as social gatherings, sporting events, and holiday trips. The most important task is to record contact details, important events such as birthdays, and anniversaries, update details, and record important correspondence. Producing timely reminders and scheduling time to attend events are also part of this process.

4.3

Subsystems Within The Family System The main Family System is divided into seven subsystems such that each one of

the processes described above is managed by one subsystem. Process operation requires resources and interface to send/receive output/input. The subsystem is responsible for resource management for the smooth execution of the process and has the necessary interface allowing interaction with other processes and relevant External Entities. The subsystems considered are: 1. Finance 2. Housing and Transport 3. Meals 4. Health 5. Education 6. Career and 7. Recreation and Socialisation. Each of these subsystems interfaces with one or more other subsystems for the overall smooth functioning of the Family System. The subsystems identified and Data flows between subsystems and External Entities are illustrated in Figure 4.3. The use of subsystems is for the simplicity of further analysis and for the convenience of focusing on each part at a time. It provides modularity for any future system development and implementation efforts in automating the processes. Detailed analysis of each of the subsystems is carried out to reveal the subprocesses, input/output requirements, and interaction between subsystems and External Entities.


1

Application Invoice Renewal Notice Insurance Policy Payment

Insurance Providers

Government Agencies

Product Suppliers

Employer Details Remuneration

Housing & Transport Educational Requirement

Product Information Service Request l i a t e D s g n i

Tax Information Election Notice Council Rent Notice Vehicle Reg. Notice Tax Return Rent Payment

n r a E

News Letter

t n e

m m e o r i c u n I q e R

Manuals Purchase Receipt Purchase Payment Purchase List

Care Application Care Payment Service Information s e s n e p x E

Expense Utility Approval Expenses

4

Special Notification Product & Service Details Monthly Statements Transaction Records Applications Contact Details

Health

Expenses Health Check Criteria

Membership Charges

Event Notification


Finance

Membership Application Monthly Expenses News & Events

News and Events Personal Details

Child Care Facilitators

Prescription Medical Payment Appointment Request Medical Charges Physician Details Medical Report

6 Payment Approval Weekly Costs

Meals

7 Extended Family / Friends

Education Service Providers

Care Fees & s e e F

5

Religious/ Social Groups

Fee Invoice Application For Admission School Fees Leave Application Parental Notes

Education

e

Potential Employers/ Employer

Other Notification Progress Report

3

Service Problem Bill

Warranty

Finance Service Providers

Professional Bodies

Job Contract Job Application

Supply Charges

Communication Facilitators

Fee Notice Membership Payment Membership Events Notification Membership Application

2 Career

Service Contract Usage Bill Fault Report Supply Request Contact Information Bill Payment

Energy Suppliers

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Recreation and Socialization

Guest information

Figure 4.3: Subsystems Within Family System

Receipt Grocery List Payment

Grocery Suppliers


4.3.1

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Finance Subsystem Finance Subsystem is responsible for the smooth functioning of all sub processes

and tasks within the Family Process of Managing Finance. Additionally, this subsystem has the logical data storage and interfaces to interact with all other subsystems, External Entities and users, the resources to monitor income and expenses and produce appropriate control signals. One of the foremost requirements for a family is its financial stability. Sufficient cash flow for the day-to-day operations, balanced budget, and strategic planning to achieve long-term goals are essential for a happy and successful family life. Adequate finance is one of the decisive factors in the general welfare of the family in obtaining all other needs such as health, education, entertainment and social life. As we live in a cashless society financial transactions are carried out using various methods such as pre-scheduled auto payments from Bank accounts, credit card payments, bank cards, phone banking and internet banking. Spending within income and making regular savings requires a well-planned budget, regular monitoring and strict account keeping. Statistical data show that twenty-five percent of Australian households experienced at least one cash flow problem in the previous 12 months period (Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2004). A family may face unexpected developments such as sickness, accident, changes in employment and changes in Government policies, and economy. Efficient financial management is required for the family to take well-informed decisions to sustain financial stability and growth. This subsystem has to interface with all other subsystems receiving input on costing, sending output on approvals and feedback on monitoring. Finance Subsystem interfaces with Career Subsystem to receive income details and other subsystems to collect cost details, send approval or provide feedback. There are four important subprocesses within the Finance Subsystem: • Financial Planning • Budgeting • Account Keeping • Scheduling and Monitoring Each of these subprocesses requires a number of tasks to complete the subprocess


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appropriately. The important subprocesses, Data flows and data storage requirement of Finance Subsystem are shown in Figure 4.4. The subprocesses, input/output requirements, interaction between subsystems and External Entities are described in detail in the following sections. Financial Planning Strategic planning and setting long-term targets in terms of investment, saving, or debt repayment are necessary for the financial stability of a family in the long term (Kenyon & Borden, 2004). This is a complex decision requiring evaluation of options, forecasting and appropriate input data. It is also required to collect and record data on expenses, income, and current economic trends. It is required to collect and evaluate market related factors affecting financial decisions, to compare available options, and to formulate strategies. Unexpected market fluctuations and variations to forecasted values of detrimental factors make the strategic decisions more complex and critical. The basic requirement to achieve essential financial stability is following a well prepared budget, having a spending plan, saving plan and debt reduction if any. An emergency fund of 3–6 month’s expenses is another basic requirement. Budgeting Preparing a family budget can be a complex task as it is required to consider anticipated expenses related to all aspects as well as external factors such as inflation and other variations. A budget may be required on a yearly basis and a monthly basis. Previous term’s expenses can be a basis to commence a budget. Data on expenses, cost estimates for new items, and expected variations are required input for budgeting. These data need to be collected and recorded consistently on a regular basis. There are expenses on basic needs such as food, clothing, shelter and transportation. It is required to pay special attention to discretionary expenses such as entertainment and variable expenses of eating out and the purchasing of non-essential goods (Kenyon & Borden, 2004). Creation of budget includes: 1. Calculation of regular monthly take-home income 2. Calculation of monthly expenses


6

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Weekly Grocery Costs

Meals

D1 Expense Register

Insurance Premiums

1 Housing & Transport

Purchase Costs Utility Costs Repair &Service Charges Govt. Fees &Charges

3

5.1 Collect and Record Costs

Monthly Education Cost

Education 4

5.4 Schedule Payment

Medical Cost

Health

7 Recreation & Socialisation Expenses D1 Register

Expense Detail

5.3

Income Requirement

Scheduled Payment

Payment Schedule

5.2 Issue Payment

Prepare Budget

2 Career

Costs Detail

Earnings Detail

Income 5.5 Collect and Record Income

Income D1 Register

Investment Return

Tax Return Social Security Child Support Figure 4.4: Processes Within Finance Subsystem

Finance Service Provider Govt. Agencies


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3. Calculation of monthly balance Account Keeping Accurate and timely account keeping is a compulsory requirement for a healthy financial system. This requires recording of income and expenditure on various items that may occur daily, weekly or monthly. Regular and consistent data entry is required for a correct account to be kept. This becomes a difficult task for the Family members due to the consistent effort required. Another aspect of account keeping is categorisation of expenses to obtain more information on spending and priorities. The subprocesses of Collect and Record Costs, and Collect and Record Income constitute account keeping as shown in Figure 4.4. Payment Scheduling and Monitoring of Expenses There are many payments that should be made on a regular basis such as phone bills, energy bills and insurance premiums. It is required to schedule these payments, and make payments in time, and these are represented by the subprocesses of Schedule Payment and Issue Payment in Figure 4.4. Monitoring and control of expenses are required to keep spending within budget as well as adjusting costs to balance against unexpected variations. It is essential to keep track of ATM withdrawals and incidental spending to meet the goals of spending, debt reduction and saving (Kenyon & Borden, 2004). Family members have to take informed decisions evaluating past experiences on expenses as well as anticipated costs and income variations to avoid cash flow problems.

4.3.2

Health Subsystem Health Subsystem is responsible for the smooth running of the Health Care process

and all the sub processes within Health Care. Health Subsystem has to co-ordinate with other subsystems such as Finance and Meals and has to communicate with related External Entities. This subsystem has the logical data storage facilities to collect and record available health related documents and information. This subsystem has the necessary interface to interact with External Entities, other subsystems and users, as necessary. Good health for all the family members is equally important for a happy family life. General health is dependent on many factors such as balanced diet, regular exercise,


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adequate rest and recreation. There are a number of subprocesses required within the Health Subsystem and these include: • Monitoring and Control of Diet and Exercise • Obtaining consultation and undergoing medical treatment • Monitoring health check parameters • Collecting and storing health records The above subprocesses and tasks involved, inputs and data storage requirements and interaction with other subsystems are discussed in the following sections. The subprocesses and logical data stores are depicted in Figure 4.5. This subsystem has to co-ordinate with Finance to provide information on health related expenses both for approval and budgeting. Monitoring and Control of Diet and Exercise Following well-formulated diet and exercise is a vital factor for maintaining good health. A balanced diet may be formulated with the assistance of a health professional. There could be health related constraints on consumption of food. Regular monitoring of food consumption is required to follow a balanced diet within stipulated constraints. This requires recording of formulated diet details and checking against the ingredients and nutritional information of food consumed on a regular basis. These processes and data storage requirements are shown in Figure 4.5. The Health subsystem has to co-ordinate with Meals to ensure that health related restrictions on food are applied correctly. Dietary intake also includes any intake of supplements (Pennington et al., 2007). Study conducted in US has found that consumption of food away from home has increased from one third of the total expenditure on food in 1970 to half in 2006 (Kyureghian, Nayga Jr, Davis, & Lin, 2007). It follows that it is essential to follow up on food consumed at and away from home. Regular exercise is as important as a balanced diet for maintaining good health. This needs scheduling, monitoring and necessary consultation with health service providers.


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4.1 Collect & Record Provider Details

Physician Details


4.2 Organise Consultation Appointment

Appointment Request Appointment Time

4.3 Administer Treatment

Medicine

Prescription Medical Report

4.4 Record Medication Details

Dietary Instructions

Record Exercise and Diet Instructions

Consultation Time Provider Contact

Treatment Advice Completed Treatment

Medical Records Treatment Details

4.5 Exercise Instructions

Provider

D1 Register

Provider Information

Diet Constraints Exercise Details

D2 Health Records

D3 Exercise and Diet

Register

Food Restrictions Medical Charges Payment

4.6 Collect & Pay Medical Bill la vo rp pA ts oC hlt ae H

ts o Cl aic de M

4.8 Check Diet no it p m us no C do oF

5

6

Finance

Meals

Figure 4.5: Processes Within Health Subsystem

ari eit rC kc heC htl eaH


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Obtaining consultation and undergoing medical treatment Family member/s need to consult medical practitioners to obtain treatment for illness, vaccinations, immunisations, and other health related matters. Undergoing treatment may involve purchase and administration of medication. This includes purchase and consumption of both prescription and non-prescription medications, follow up, monitoring and reporting response to medication as well as variations to dosage (American Pharmacist Association, 2005). Collecting and storing health records A number of medical records relating to examination, medication, and results of tests conducted are generated during this process. There are no international rules regulating storage and use of health records. In some countries health records remain with health practitioners and medical history of a person may be scattered among different heath practitioners in different geographical locations. The health records include medication record, consultation, physician’s orders to other health providers, lab reports, and immunisations’ records. Research has established that availing electronic health records and allowing maintenance of personal health record can facilitate better access to all health information to the person and other health related agencies, and can shift the responsibility and control to the person (Fox, 2004). Sharing of personal health records within the family can help health service providers in understanding the medical history and assessing health risk issues. Medical history is important background information in case of people with hereditary diseases. There is a requirement to record service provider details and medication details for further use. There is a variation in availability of electronic data pertaining to these processes as well as accessibility issues. Timely information on previous sickness and treatment can be of great use in handling situations for a medical practitioner as well as the individual and family involved. Monitoring health check parameters Family member/s having specific medical conditions may need to regularly monitor health check parameters such as blood pressure or sugar level. It may be necessary to monitor weight or other parameters to keep a healthy life. There is a need to keep a record


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of these measurements and make it available to health service providers for further use.

4.3.3

Education Subsystem Education Subsystem is responsible for all the processes and subprocesses under

Education. This subsystem interfaces with Finance Subsystem to provide information on expenses related to education as well as budgeting and receives input from Finance Subsystem to control expenses. Data storage facilities to record and access all education related documents as well as interfacing facilities enabling interaction with External Entities also form part of this subsystem. Adult members of the family updating their skills can conduct formal studies and essentially children undergo fairly long years of formal education starting with kindergarten that may continue to University or further education. This is an important and timeconsuming process, at the same time essential and unavoidable to keep the family members well-educated and competent in society. Parents spend a substantial amount of time to receive and process applications, invoices, progress reports, and attend school events. Commencing with the identification and selection of institution a number of subprocesses are involved in maintaining children’s education and these include: • Obtaining Admission • Procuring of Materials • Paying fees • Attending School Activities • Monitoring Academic Progress The important subprocesses, data flows and data storage requirements are shown in Figure 4.6. These subprocesses are detailed in the following subsections. Obtaining Admission It commences with collection and comparison of school details, sending application to selected schools and meeting admission criteria in a preferred school. Depending on the procedures prevalent for selection and availability of seats this can be a complex task. This may include many changes in educational institutions, sending several applications,


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3.1 Prospectus ro F no it ac lip pA

no is is m dA

Education Providers

3.3 Send Application

Institution Details

Collect and Record Info on Schools Selected Institution

3.2 Compare and Select School

Books and Uniform Details

Sort and Purchase Materials

Materials List and Cost Payment Materials List Invoice Materials

Product Supplier 3.5

Record Fees Details

ilsa te D se eF

Payment Details

3.7

News Letter

Make Payment

3.8 se to N

Costing

3.4

School Fees Payment

la tn er aP

D1 Education Register

3.6

Fees Invoice

rto pe ltsu R se sse R rg ic or m ed P ac A

Institution Information

Collect and Record Events & Dates

Activity Details

3.9 Schedule Time

D2

Payment Approval

Events and Tasks Register

Activity List

Schedule

3.10 Record and Monitor Academic Records

Academic Records

D3

Academic Records Register

Figure 4.6: Processes Within Education Subsystem

Calculate Monthly Expenses Monthly Costs

5 Finance


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or appearing for competitive examinations for selection. Identification of suitable schools becomes a difficult task for a Family making a number of moves to different geographical locations due to transfer of employment or other reasons. Procuring Materials There are books, uniforms and other materials for extra-curricular activities to be procured as required. This is an activity that requires planning to allocate funds and time. This is essentially required at the beginning of each academic year as well as during the academic year depending on the activities in which the pupil is engaged. The responsibilities vary depending on the support provided by the school. Materials can be selected and organised by the school or can be the responsibility of the parents to organise materials purchase following given guidelines. The later option requires increased commitment from the parents in terms of time and resources. Attending School Activities There are many school activities where parents need to provide input either by attending in person or by providing other forms of input. Parents may be involved in school governing bodies or school committees, acting as resource persons for organising field trips, and selling uniforms (Dhingra, Manhas, & Sethi, 2007). School sends regular communications on events and activities involving pupils and parents. It is essential for parents to regularly follow up on school events and allocate required resources of time and money to meet the essential needs. Parents generally visit school and conduct formal and informal discussions with teachers regarding their children’s conduct, academic matters and behaviour. These visits varies in frequency ranging from daily to monthly or occasionally. There is regular communication between school and parents using school news letters and other reports. Schools use various methods of communication such as parentteacher meeting, school diary, school magazines, and telephone conversations (Dhingra et al., 2007). An example of typical communication happening between school and parents is shown in Appendix A. As these communications are prepared for the whole school, careful reading is required to extract relevant information for a particular child. In case of dual income families and single parent families with a working parent, allocating time for school events requires good planning.


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Paying Fees Different countries have differing systems and substantial variations in government funding for education. In some countries school education requires substantial fee payment from parents and in this case parents need to collect invoice and organise payment of fees and other related charges. This is a periodic task occurring mostly on a termly basis. Monitoring Academic Progress One of the difficult tasks is to monitor a child’s progress in his/her school years, understand the child’s strengths and weaknesses and to take necessary action in a timely fashion. Early intervention and timely action are necessary for a child having learning difficulties or problems with adapting to the school. Generally, school provides periodic reports on academic progress that may be termly and yearly. Parents may need to compile these reports to obtain a bigger picture of the child’s progress and take necessary action if required.

4.3.4

Housing and Transport Subsystem The Housing and Transport Subsystem manages the process of Household Main-

tenance and this involves interfacing with Finance Subsystem to receive input on budget and send details of expenses. The Housing Subsystem interacts with External Entities such as Insurance providers, Energy Suppliers, Product suppliers, Communication Facilitators and Govt. Agencies. This subsystem obtains user input required for the smooth running of subprocesses and produces timely output. This subsystem is responsible for executing processes that are required to maintain a fully functional house with necessary appliances, equipment, energy and water supply and heating, ventilation and air conditioning as required. This subsystem is also responsible for all tasks required for maintaining family owned/leased vehicles. The main subprocesses involved are: • Purchasing Equipment and Vehicle/s • Organising and Maintaining Insurances • Coordinating and performing cleaning and repair


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• Obtaining and Maintaining Utility Services The subprocesses involved, input/output requirements, data storage, and interaction with External Entities are illustrated in Figure 4.7. These are discussed in detail in the following sections. Purchasing Equipment and Vehicle/s Present day homes need many appliances ranging from high value to low value for various purposes. These include equipment associated with HVAC systems, washing machine, dryer, dishwasher, toaster, electric kettle and so on. Purchase of equipment for use at home can be a complex and time consuming activity that involves collecting details of different makes and models, comparing, evaluating available options and procuring the item. There are other tasks also involved, including recording details of purchased items, supplier, and service providers, collecting and storing warranty, and user manuals. Purchase of vehicles includes additional tasks of organising registration and satisfying other legal formalities involved. The record keeping involved in these cases should be well organised to access required information for obtaining available free servicing before expiry of warranty as well as carrying out required regular servicing. The manual should be readily available for reference for installation, trouble shooting or change of configuration. Organising and Maintaining Insurance The volatility involved in economic and employment conditions, as well as other potential risks of natural calamities, and electrical surges makes insurance an essential service. Insurance services, service providers, and coverage available vary a lot and obtaining a suitable product requires substantial effort. Generally obtained insurances are for house, contents, vehicle, health, income protection, accident, and life (Burton, 2000). There are variations to the premiums, extra payment required in case of claim, and level of protection. Insurance service being a contract spanning a period of time means that it is the Home User’s responsibility to understand the details and store the contracts for later use. Insurance conditions and premiums undergo temporal variations and thus requires timely renewal and update. There are various premium payment options such as monthly, quarterly, or annually which require budgeting and payment scheduling.


Application Insurance Policy Premium Request Premium Payment

Insurance Providers

Renewal Notice Insurance Provider Detials

Energy / Water Communication Service Providers

Product Suppliers

Provider Contact Fault Report Service Contract Supply Request Usage Bill Contact Information Bill Payment Purchase List Purchase Payment Manuals Purchase Receipt Warranty equipment

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1.1

Premium Details

Organise Insurance

Insurance Policy

1.2 Record Provider Details

D2

1.5 Purchase Equipment

Government Agencies

Costing

1.4 Calculate Monthly Expenses

Service cost Service Contract Materials List and Cost Product Register

Monthly Costs

lsi tae D tc ud or P

5 Finance

Warranty Supplier Details

1.6 Tax Information Tax Return Tax Claim Election Notice Rent Payment Vehicle Reg. Notice Council Rent Notice

ServiceRegister

Provider Detials

1.3 Organise Utility Services

D1

Payment Approval Taxation Details Returned Tax

Claim Tax Return

Payment Approval

1.7 Pay Land and Vehicle Registration 1.8 Perform Cleaning and Repair

Rental Cost Vehicle cost

D3

Repair Expense Repair Request

Vehicle and House Register ts Service oc Details ec iv re S

1.9 Organise Servicing

Figure 4.7: Processes Within Housing and Transport Subsystem

ts oc tr op sn art dn a gn is uo H

la vo rp pa ec iv re S


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Coordinating and performing cleaning and repair A functional home requires regular cleaning, servicing of equipment and repair work to the house itself or some equipment in use (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2008a). This involves the tasks of identifying service providers, getting cost estimates, evaluating options, selecting appropriate option and organising the task. Organising repair and servicing of equipment or vehicle requires information on service providers and their costing details. This activity is dependent on proper recording of equipment and service provider details at the time of purchase and updating records as necessary. Cleaning of house and equipment used at home is a regularly required task that involves a combination of physical and intellectual work: by definition this is a Hybrid process. This is repetitive and time consuming, even though essential. Household maintenance involves weekly, monthly, bi-annual or annual tasks (Bard, 1998). It is required to check equipment manuals for scheduling preventive maintenance and recommended care. These may include checking and care of air-conditioning system and heating system. Other tasks include cleaning gutters, windows, carpets, bedding, oven and refrigerator. On average mothers spent 33 hours per week on household activities whereas fathers spent around 18 hours per week (Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2009). The household activities include household management, cleaning, and other housework of which household maintenance contributed 2.20 hours and laundry and clothes care took 4 hours per week. Obtaining and Maintaining Utility Services Homes located in urban areas are largely dependent on many essential utility services of electricity, water, cooking gas, communication services, and water supply. Houses in regional areas may be self sufficient in some utilities but still need part of the essential utility services. These service provisions being privatised, there are different options in terms of providers, service quality and pricing. Selection of the most appropriate provider requires data collection, comparison, evaluation and decision making. The Home User needs to understand contractual liabilities and keep record of contracts for further reference. Maintaining these services requires receipt, scheduling and payment of bills, renewal of contracts and appropriate fault reporting. These services form a substantial portion of regular expenditure of households. Therefore storage of bill details and close monitor-


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ing of service usage are important. Global warming and climate change issues boost the importance of the economical use of resources such as water and power.

4.3.5

Career Subsystem Career Subsystem is responsible for the coordination and execution of the process

of Generating Income and necessary sub processes, resource management and allocation, and interfacing with External Entities as well as other subsystems such as Education. Adult members in a family are engaged in occupation. This could be a business run by the family and in this case, custom-made software is generally used for various aspects of the system. This study considers cases where member/s of the family are engaged in paid employment. This necessitates recording employer details, preparing applications and resumes, and storing appointment letters and other formal notifications received from the employers, storing pay details, recording and maintaining potential employers’ list, and coordinating with Education subsystem for updating skills. As Employment may be the main source of income, Career subsystem is responsible for providing input to the Finance regarding regular income and expected variations in income.

4.3.6

Recreation and Socialization Subsystem Recreation and Socialization Subsystem is responsible for the management of Recre-

ation and Social life Maintenance process, resources required for this process, and interfacing with the Health Subsystem. Busy families and other householders need recreational activities that may include holidays involving national/international travel, sporting, short trips and any other activities undertaken for the purpose of recreation. Recreation A number of subprocesses are involved in organising, and undertaking a recreational activity. This activity could be regular or occasional. Some of the subprocesses involved are: • Collect information


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• Compare and select options • Organise booking and payment as required • Organise necessary resources • Keep record of involved service provider details • Co-ordinate with Finance Socialisation Social life is essential for the well-being of the family and this process is responsible for maintaining contacts with extended families, social groups, and friends. The most important task is to record contact details, important events (birthdays, anniversaries etc.), update details, and record important correspondences. Producing reminders at appropriate times, and guiding on time scheduling to attend events are also part of this process.

4.4

Meals Subsystem Meals Subsystem is responsible for the smooth running of Planning and Preparing

Meals. Meals subsystem has to co-ordinate with the Finance Subsystem to ensure spending on food within budget and it is required to co-ordinate with the Health Subsystem to ensure appropriate diet within the measures of Health Care. This subsystem has to co-ordinate with Recreation and Socialization subsystem to extract information for the correct planning of meals on occasions when people other than family members are present. A very detailed analysis of Meals subsystem is carried out in this section. The DFDs have been used in analysis of the subsystems to reveal processes, input/output of processes and interaction with External Entities. Use Case diagram is used for exposing the user interaction as this facility is not available with DFDs (Object Management Group Inc., 2004). Business process modelling techniques following Eriksson-Penker Business Extension to UML notation are used to develop Activity diagrams demonstrating the dynamic nature of processes and the distinction between input for processing and control signal input (Eriksson & Penker, 2000). Meals planning and preparation are routine tasks in any household. A regular balanced diet is necessary for the health and happiness of the individuals. This involves


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knowing the needs of individual householders as well as the details of food consumed. As lifestyle changes, increased amounts of processed food are consumed regularly. As a result of this, the householder should know the ingredients to avoid unwanted or allergic substances in the processed food and information on the nutritional value of the product. On average a household consumes 1095 meals in a year at the rate of 3 meals per day. Planning and preparing meals within a budget that fulfill nutritional needs and personal preferences of all family members, as well as providing variety, is a time consuming, complex, and routine activity carried out normally by a single person (Soliah, Walter, & Barnes, 2003). A series of tasks are involved in planning and preparing nutritional meals meeting preferences and health constraints of each of the householders and guests present (The Nova Scotia Dept. of Aquaculture, 1997; Cox, 2000). The tasks listed below are adapted from an education module developed by The Nova Scotia Agricultural College as it provides a complete and logically coupled set of tasks. The main processes involved in organising and managing food requirements of the family, the data required to be stored for on-going use of different processes, interaction with External Entities and other subsystems are shown in Figure 4.8. An ideal situation is pursued in this analysis and actual practices may vary demographically and culturally. This can be applied to households with one or more occupants even if they are not part of a Family. 1. Decide meals for the week 2. Consider available time to prepare each meal 3. Check available groceries stock 4. Select menu for each meal 5. Estimate nutritional value 6. Select recipes 7. Prepare pre-processed items list 8. Verify against allergic and restricted substances 9. Prepare grocery list 10. Select brand/make of processed food


D1

Menus & Recipes

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6.2 Prepare Grocery List

Recipe List

Meals Available Menu Options

6.1 Select Meals and Menu For Week

Menu & Recipe

6.6 Get Meal Menu & Recipe For Cooking Recipes gn ik oo cr of se ipc eR gn ik oc ro F ep ic eR

6.7 Prepare Used Items List & Update Stock

lsi tae D no it p m us no C do oF

Selected Menu Grocery List

6.3 Verify Verified Ingredients Grocery List Health Check Criteria

4 Health

Consumed Items D2

tis L yr ec or G we N

sy

r G

6.10 Cook, Serve and Clean

Grocery Order List

kc ot St ne rr u C

ilsa te D

6.5 Estimate Cost

Grocery Stock Register

6.8 Prepare Items for Cooking

r Prepared Items eco

6.4 Produce Grocery Puchase List

R1 Grocery Stock sy re co r G

6.11 Collect Grocery Items

ts o C de ta im ts E lyk ee W

5 Finance

6.9 Update Stock

Payment

Purchased Grocery List Grocerys

Grocery Supplier

Figure 4.8: Processes Within Meals Subsystem

Grocery Order List


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Meals Subsystem Select Meals and Menu Prepare Grocery List

Finance Subsystem

Estimate Cost

Home User

«extends»

Verify Ingredients

Health Subsystem

Produce Grocery Purchase List

Update Stock

Grocery Suppliers

Figure 4.9: User View of Meals Subsystem 11. Estimate cost 12. Purchase groceries 13. Update stock register 14. Prepare ingredients for cooking 15. Cook meals as planned 16. Update inventory 17. Remove expired items The above listed tasks involved in the Planning and Preparation of Meals can be classified into two categories: intellectual tasks and tasks requiring combination of intellectual input and physical labour represented by Hybrid Processes in the Figure 4.8. The intellectual tasks involved in the process include scheduling meals, deciding the menu for each meal, selecting recipes, verifying ingredients, preparing grocery lists, and updating stock. These tasks involve planning, data collection and information retrieval, knowledgebased reasoning, and routine decision making. The intellectual tasks can be grouped into four Soft Processes: • Plan and decide meals for a week


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Figure 4.10: Select Meal • Select menu and recipes • Estimate cost and prepare grocery purchase list • Update inventory These processes are further analysed in the following sections.

4.4.1

User View of an Envisaged Meals Subsystem A Use case diagram following UML notation is used to depict a User View of the

envisaged Meals Subsystem representing the perceived functionality of a possible implementation, as shown in Figure 4.9. The actors of the system are Home User and other subsystems that need to interact with the Meals Subsystem. The envisaged Meals Subsystem provides a number of functionalities to the householder by automating identified Soft Processes. The use case diagram provides a clear view of user interaction and interaction with other systems.

4.4.2

Schedule Meals for a Week The meals required by a household for a week can be decided from the information

on people present for each meal including guests, and time available to prepare meals. The meals considered are breakfast, lunch, dinner, and morning and afternoon snacks. Reasons such as shortage of time to cook, unavailability, sickness or lack of appetite can result in the option to eat out, consume take away food or cancel a particular meal. This can be


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Figure 4.11: Select Menu and Recipes specific to an individual or all the householders. The processes, control and data input are depicted using an activity diagram given in Figure 4.10.

4.4.3

Select Menu and Recipes A menu is required for each selected meal and this can be effectively decided only

with the information on preferences and constraints of people present for each meal. The prepared meal should satisfy the individual needs of householders in taste and nutritional value. The main factors influencing this decision are: • Individual food preferences • Health related personal constraints • Availability of time • Number of people present • Nutritional needs • Items in stock • Items to expire soon


tea t S la iit nI

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et ta S la ni F

Figure 4.12: Prepare Grocery Purchase List The personal preferences may include factors such as vegetarian, non-vegetarian, type of food etc. Personal constraints on eating can be due to health reasons such as heart problems, diabetes, or allergies to particular ingredients. The above listed factors can be applied with varying priorities in arriving at the most suitable menu for each meal. The number of people present for a particular meal, and whether they are householders or guests influences the decision on menus and the selection of recipes. The activity diagram shown in Figure 4.11 illustrates the process. Recipes can be created or chosen from a database of recipes. Selection of recipes for the meals with chosen menus needs verification against use of ingredients to avoid allergic substances and other restricted components. A recipe may contain many processed food items. In the case of processed food, information on ingredients and nutritional value is required to decide inclusion in the diet. The Ingredient List (IL) and Nutritional Information (NI) are generally provided on the product packing. Economical use of purchased goods can be enforced by consuming items that may expire shortly, thus avoiding wastage of groceries. The sub-processes, and input/output of this process are shown in Figure 4.11

4.4.4

Estimate cost and Prepare Grocery Purchase List The final list of items required can be arrived at from the selected menu and recipes

as well as the information on existing stock. A cost estimate for the list of items can be calculated by obtaining prices from short listed outlets. Information on seasonal items is also required. The estimated cost is to be within the set budget, or menus can be altered to bring the estimated cost within the allocated budget as per the Finance subsystem. The


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Cheapest outlet to purchase the weekly groceries can be located and this may vary from time to time. Information on the make/brand of selected processed food for the chosen menu can be stored for further use as this has been already verified for suitability. There are a number of sub-processes involved in arriving at the grocery purchase list for a week and these are depicted in Figure 4.12 with the necessary inputs.

4.4.5

Update Inventory The inventory should be updated on purchase of items and consumption of items.

The planned meals may or may not be cooked and consumed as unexpected events can alter the implementation of meals’ schedules. Consistent updating of inventory as per consumption can provide information on existing stock. An inventory can be accurately maintained by using information from the recipes used, and the meals cooked as well as groceries purchased, and any items wasted due to expiry. The details of this process are shown in Figure 4.13

4.4.6

Tasks Requiring Physical and Intellectual Work Home meals preparation involves grocery shopping, preparation of ingredients for

cooking, cleaning and setting of appliances, making arrangement to serve the food, and finally cleaning the dining area, kitchen and other appliances used. Grocery shopping is a time consuming task that requires physical work. The selected menu with the designed recipe is to be implemented on an ongoing basis for the implementation of the planned meals to occur. The first part in each meal preparation is preparation of ingredients following recipe and this requires intellectual and physical labour such as cleaning, peeling, washing, cutting into smaller pieces, and grinding or mixing as required (Engelhardt & Goughler, 1997). The remaining activity is cooking by heating the prepared items as required. The Meals Planning and Preparation process is completed by serving the meals to the listed people and cleaning and washing the utensils and cutlery.


et ta S la iit nI

111

tea t S la ni F

Figure 4.13: Maintain Inventory

4.5

Study of Analysis Results Depicted in Family System Reference Model The analyses conducted in previous sections have exposed processes, data flows

between processes and External Entities, and also data storage requirement for later use of data. The analysis results expose a large amount of data received and substantial information processing required in various Family Processes. Viewed from the right perspective, the revelation is self explanatory in promoting the need for efficient home information management. This can be initiating a renaissance in the way data are delivered, collected and stored, processed using middleware applications, and useful information delivered to the home users. Usually householders manage these processes from experience and often it is possible that practice is erroneous or not the ideal case. Efficiency and effectiveness of the whole process greatly varies between households. Household management involves planning, decision making based on knowledge-based reasoning and expertise, as well as adaptability to context and environmental factors.

4.5.1

Information Management and Soft Processes The analysis results demonstrate the importance of information management tasks

involved in a family home. Information management includes data delivery, reception and storage, extraction of appropriate information, archiving of historical records, deletion of unwanted data, triggering of events based on alterations in data, and sending correct data


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to processes. The analysis also reveals the dependence on communications received from External Entities and the data extracted for the correct process execution. This study categorises the information management tasks as Soft Processes by definition. Further analysis is required to identify processes that should be automated, technology needs and technology gaps in achieving automation. Automatically extracted information can be used to control process execution.

4.5.2

Mobile Family and Home Users Home Users are mobile from the initial definition of Family as a mobile unit and

this fact is also established by other studies. Considering the mobility of Home Users, the execution of the identified Soft Processes for automation are not bound to physical location of the home. Rather, they are logically bound to the home and Home Users require access to information for various purposes while they are away from home also. This section extends the process knowledge of ’what’ exposed by the analysis conducted in Section 4.2 by discussing the aspects of where, and when the process is used. User Ubiquity A Home User can be present in one of the places such as own home, work place related situations such as conference, meeting, or public place such as airport, public transport – bus or train, at a restaurant or a social gathering, in a friend’s place or a retail store or a medical facility. A concept map depicted in Figure 4.14 is used to illustrate the ubiquity of the Home User (Awad & Ghaziri, 2003). Depending on the situation informed decision making, activities involving information use or updating of previously formulated information, becomes essential. Need for Ubiquitous Intelligence and Computing These aspects introduce additional requirements to the information services that include availing right information at the right time, and right place, empowerment with decision support, implementing inferences or rules and knowledge creation for later use. Therefore these processes can be carried out anywhere provided the correct information is available. Well informed decision making is required all the time. Few scenarios provided below illustrate such information use and update of already created information.


Figure 4.14: Ubiquity of Home User

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1. A Home User consuming food from a restaurant needs to select a menu within his/her dietary requirements and constraints. It may seem easy for a user to avoid a food item containing an unwanted ingredient; but it is an intelligent task to choose suitable food items that meet nutritional and calorific requirements within the health constraints. This needs consideration of previous meal/s of the day, health constraints of the user and nutritional information of the food items. 2. A Home User roaming around a shopping center comes across a very good deal for an equipment that is not currently budgeted for. An appropriate decision requires cash flow check and budget modification. Even though account balance details are currently available through internet banking, budget and future expenses needs to be organised by the user and made accessible away from home. This is not an easy task for everyone. 3. A Home User at work experiences some unexpected changes in his/her duties and needs to modify the scheduled pick-up arrangement of the kids from school and inform his/her partner. In a busy office situation usually staff may not get a chance to communicate with their family members. 4. A Home User walks into a computer store to consult options for upgrading his/her home PC. This requires information about the technical details and any previous upgrades of the home PC. The above scenarios indicate that managing home/personal life happens everywhere. Three of the most occurring aspects of home/personal life that happen anywhere, anytime are decisions on food, money and time.

4.6

Chapter Summary The Family System exposes the important processes within the Family and the

interaction with External Entities. The linkage of process usage to different stages of family life can be used to formulate a taxonomy of Home Users based on behaviour rather than the demographics. The model of FS can be used for further detailed analysis to explore process automation needs, information management, and decision support to assist Home Users in everyday life. This is the seed for triggering a broader Roadmap for HA by extracting


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information on technology needs, technology alternatives and technology gaps. The process knowledge obtained by this analysis is used in the next chapter to identify automation needs of Home Users following specific lifestyle.

Chapter 5

Scenario Based Future User Requirements Elicitation The major problem faced by the HA industry is the lack of formal methods to identify market needs and to re-assess technology investment strategies based on temporal variations to the market needs on a longer time span. Investment decisions in assistive technologies are critical as the future is uncertain and ambiguous; as well, users have only knowledge about the problem and are ignorant about the technology capabilities. The issues related to these problems are discussed in detail in Sections 1.2, and 2.5. From the processes identified using the analysis of the Family System it is required to segregate those processes, the automation of which will meet future market needs. This study has developed a new method to address this problem and this chapter presents this new method. Traditionally user involved methods are used to elicit user requirements for office information systems while automation decisions are made based on economic feasibility studies (Valacich et al., 2001; Shelly et al., 2006). The lack of definite and accountable tangible benefits for automation disqualifies the application of this method in the case of the HA. This follows from the fact that household work and other home and personal life management activities are unpaid. Application of user involved methods has failed to obtain a whole picture as evident from the literature review provided in Section 2.4.1. Additionally, the Section 1.1.2 points out the need for the HA products to be tailored to meet the latent demands caused by lifestyle related problems. This work uses scenario technique to learn plausible future lifestyle of Home Users. The new method developed as

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Chapter 5: Scenario Based Future User Requirements Elicitation

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part of this study is called Requirement Elicitation of Future User by Systems Scenario (REFUSS) and it integrates the knowledge obtained from system modelling and scenario technique as detailed in the following sections. The terms User Characteristics and Process Attributes used in the following listing are defined in a later section. REFUSS consists of the following steps: 1. Formally define a process exposing its operational aspects from the user’s perspective 2. Formally define a user with User Characteristics that influence process use 3. Derive future values for User Characteristics 4. Relate the user and process based on their formal definitions and plausible future values of User Characteristics Steps 1-4 above can be used to identify process automation needs based on the knowledge of processes of known specification used by Home Users with defined characteristics. Step 4 can be used to understand emerging process automation needs. This method uses three components: • A system modelling the current processes within the system, input and output of the processes, and identified process attributes providing user perspective of the process operation. • Scenarios depicting future lifestyle and plausible user characteristics. • Generic rules relating process attributes to user characteristics. Section 5.1 details a method to formally define the processes. Section 5.2 establishes a formal definition of users that can be used to logically relate the user and process. Section 5.3 describes the derivation of future user characteristics from information on lifestyle. This section also describes the application of scenario technique to derive future lifestyle. Section 5.4 formalises the identification of processes for automation by systematically relating the defined properties of users and processes. Section 5.5 demonstrates the application of this method to identify processes requiring automation.


5.1

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Process Definition The current process knowledge is the basis: to achieve this, it is essential to have

a system model depicting processes, input/output and the operational requirement of the process. In this study a process is not considered as a stand alone entity. A process belongs to a system and is dependent on the system for interface and resources. The system model allows the addition of new processes or the deletion of existing processes during review. The system model is developed by incorporating all basic and essential processes that are less time variant. The reliability of this method depends on the system model providing a top-level view encompassing all processes. Let SP be the identified system, and P be the set of processes within the system: P = {p0 , ·, ·, pi , ·, ·, pn }

(5.1)

where pi represents a process, 0 < i ≤ n. Primarily, a deeper understanding of the process is developed. This study defines process using mostly generic terms that will not be affected by the resources used for the process or by system related factors. A number of terms are defined here for clarity and use in later steps. Definition 5.19 Process Attribute is a variable that partially describes the nature of process from the user’s perspective. The range of values depends on the operational aspects that are detrimental to the user’s perspective of the process. The Process Attribute of a process is modifiable by altering the implementation. This cannot be altered by the user but could be modified by the process design. An example Process Attribute is frequency of use having values such as routine, intermittent, or infrequent; this implies the nature of user interaction required for the smooth running of the process. Definition 5.20 Process Operational Requirement is a variable that reveals the effort required from the user for completion of the process producing quality output. The range of values depends on the operational aspects, origin and combination of input, and subprocesses involved in transforming the input that are detrimental to the


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correctness of the process completion. The Process Attribute is indicative of or maps to Process Operational Requirement, to be met by the user for effective process completion achieving the desired result.

5.1.1

Identification of Process Attributes The purpose here is to understand the processes within the targeted system from

the user’s point of view using generic and simpler terms. There could be very detailed and complex information related to a process that may provide information on the input requirements, format of input, outputs generated, quantity and quality of resources required, and interaction of the process with other processes or subsystems. These factors can distract an analyst or system designer from focusing on the operational aspects of the process, required for achieving effective process completion producing quality output, from the user’s point of view. The interest here is only in those operational aspects of the process that are detrimental to the effective completion of the process and that are to be supported by the user. Such operational process requirements have a direct impact on the process use by specific user. All the processes from the developed system model are listed with corresponding Process Attributes. Let ai be the set of Process Attributes for a particular process pi and this can be represented by the set given below. ai = {ai0 , ·, ·, aij , ·, ·, ain }

(5.2)

where 0 < j ≤ n. For every process pi in the set of identified processes P there exists a number of Process Attributes and this set is defined below. A = {∀pi | pi ∈ P • ∃ai | aij ∈ ai ∧ 0 < i ≤ n, 0 < j ≤ n • aij }

(5.3)

Each Process Attribute of a process maps to one or more Process Operational Requirements to be satisfied by the user. Let rij be the set of operational requirements for a particular process pi having Process Attribute aij and this can be represented by the set given below. rij = {rij0 , ·, ·, rijk , ·, ·, rijn }

(5.4)


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where 0 < k ≤ n. These operational requirements are to be met by the user.

5.2

User Definition Two aspects need to be derived for the definition of user: the current user and

the evolution of the future user. The purpose here is to understand and define the user in simple and generic terms such that the process and user can be related. This study refers to users as individuals or Family members who are Home Users in use of one or more of the Family Processes. Definition 5.21 User Characteristic is a variable that partially describes the state of a user. The range of values is dependent on the lifestyle followed and it influences the use of Family Processes. An example of a User Characteristic is the emotional state of a user. This can take one of the values of happy, sad, stressed, or relaxed. The values of User Characteristics are identified to understand the users in their daily life and thus relate to their perspective of process use. Let C be the set of User Characteristics for a user following a lifestyle of interest. C = {C0 , ·, Ci , ·, Cn }

(5.5)

where Ci represents a User Characteristic, 0 < i ≤ n. Definition 5.22 Environmental Factor is any social, economic, political, legal, or technological factors that influence the lifestyle of the user. The lifestyle of these users is beset by many Environmental Factors. In turn the lifestyle has an effect on the User Characteristic; it is of temporal binding allowing variations from time to time. Definition 5.23 User Constraint is a variable that indicates the limitation of a user due to specific User Characteristics attributable to the lifestyle followed.


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An example value of a User Constraint is time unavailable for the operation of Family Processes due to other engagements. A User Characteristic indicates or maps to constraint/s a user may have, to effectively implement a process. Let Ti be the set of constraints of a user having User Characteristic Ci and this could be represented by the set given below. Ti = {Ti0 , ·, Tij , ·, Tin }

(5.6)

where Ti represents set of user constraints, 0 < j ≤ n. Definition 5.24 Demanding Process Attribute is any Process Attribute of specific value that maps to Process Operational Requirement/s that are User Constraint/s of users with specific User Characteristics. This implies that the same rule applies for all the users having the same User Characteristics. For example a process having a Process Attribute of frequency of use with a value of routine becomes a Demanding Process Attribute for a user with a User Characteristic of availability with a value mostly unavailable. This means that the operational requirement indicated by or associated with a Process Attribute corresponds to a constraint indicated by a User Characteristic and thus the user is naturally incapable of meeting the process requirement appropriately. Such Process Attributes are termed as Demanding Process Attributes for users with specific User Characteristics.

5.3

Derivation of Future User Characteristics The technology roadmap is for strategic planning and technology investment de-

cisions for products and services that will meet future market needs. Future market needs and consumer demand depend on the lifestyle that will be followed at that point of time. The future is uncertain and unpredictable, thus can create investment risk. It is critical to develop understanding of future User Characteristics in a formal way that can be used for identifying market needs. This information can be used for identification of products and services meeting the market needs and for formulation of current technology investment strategies, as well as for later re-assessment. Scenarios are used as a tool to learn about the future by creating “holistic and integrated images” (Ratcliffe, 2000), thus providing the decision makers an exposure to


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major influence factors and their interactions. Scenarios facilitate the creation of alternative futures in a cause-effective way. The lifestyle of Home Users is influenced by large numbers of external factors that are dependent on social, economical, and political developments. The scenarios developed here are used for two purposes: 1. To systematically learn the future Home User lifestyle, the resulting User characteristics and the emerging process automation needs 2. To develop a method with formal reasoning to re-assess future trends.

5.3.1

Scenario Development As the future is unknown, forecasting or trend analysis based on currently known

factors can produce only one futuristic vision. Scenarios built around a number of factors, issues, and interaction between them provide a means to visualise different plausible futures and use this vision to learn, think and carry out further research on the evolving future requirement in core technology investments. This allows an iterative process of incorporating changes to the temporal variations to the norms used, thus re-assessing the futures. The alternative visions assist the strategists to explore a range of futures with richly detailed information so that they can be prepared for any surprising shift from the expected future. The scenario development method described here is as per van der Heijden’s approach (Heijden, 2005). Initially a large set of Environmental Factors that influence the lifestyle of Home Users are taken. These factors not only influence the user, they influence each other. Factors that have a major influence on other factors are taken as high impact. Factors that are highly influenced by others become uncertain in their influence on the users due to their own variation. These are taken as highly uncertain. An NxN influence matrix is created by assigning numerical values to the amount of influence a factor can have on another factor, where N indicates the total number of factors. This matrix is used to calculate total impact or uncertainty of each of the factors. Let M be the matrix. The total impact I of an influence factor i on other factors can be obtained by Ii =

n X

Mi,j

j=1

where Mi,j represents the impact of factor i on j.

(5.7)


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A high value of Ii is indicative of the high impact of this factor on other factors as well as on the future. The impact of other factors U on an influence factor i can be obtained by Ui =

n X

Mj,i

(5.8)

j=1

where Mj,i is the impact of factor j on i. A high value of Ui implies that i is less predictable or highly uncertain. Driving Forces The total impact/uncertainty factors obtained from equations 5.7, 5.8 are ranked. This can be easily achieved by plotting total impact/uncertainty values in a two dimensional space called an Impact/Predictability Graph. Factors that have extreme values become the critical influences or uncertainties, as these are the most important in setting the future trends; being highly unpredictable can twist the expected trend. The graphical space is divided into four quarters using the range of values from one or two most varying factors. The factors having values in the top right quarter of the Impact/Predictability Graph are of interest as these are of high impact and low predictability. The most influential/uncertain ones of these are called the critical factors. The major factors responsible for setting or twisting the future trends are called driving forces. These are the underlying factors responsible for the critical factors. A deductive approach is used in structuring the scenario set where scenarios are specified in terms of scenario dimensions that are scoping outcomes of a few (two or three) driving forces. When there are many driving forces these are grouped into two, known as scenario dimensions; the major trends are obtained by contemplating the resulting outcomes from the variations to the scenario dimensions. A horizon year is chosen as the cut-off year for the scenarios. The scoping outcome is the expected values the driving forces may reach by the cut-off or horizon year. Scenarios are used to build different futures by assuming both positive and negative variations to the two scenario dimensions and the associated underlying factors. This can generate four scenarios. Three different worlds are constructed that depict lifestyles that are extremely dissimilar. The fourth scenario reflects the history.


5.4

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Identification of Processes for Automation On completion of the previous steps there is knowledge of the processes belonging

to the current system and the future user characteristics. The requirement is to identify processes to be automated for the future users. This process information could be derived by relating the future User Characteristics to the Process Attributes.

5.4.1

Derivation of Demanding Process Attributes The automation requirement depends on the snap shot of User Characteristics

as this is a dynamic set that can acquire values from different sets. The acquired values depend largely on the lifestyle. Once a lifestyle is chosen, a set of User Characteristics with appropriate values is generated. The generated list of User Characteristics is then used to derive the set of Demanding Process Attributes. As discussed in Section 5.2 a User Characteristic indicates or maps to any constraint/s experienced by the users following a specific lifestyle. A Process Attribute indicates the operational requirement to be met by the user. For every characteristic Ci in the set of identified User Characteristics C, if a corresponding User Constraint is a Process Operational Requirement with specific Process Attribute, that makes it difficult for the user with the specific characteristic to execute the process. Such Process Attributes are chosen as Demanding Process Attributes.

DP A = {∀Ci | Ci ∈ C ∧ ∃Tij | Tij ∈ Ti • Tij ∧ ∃aij | aij ∈ ai ∧ ai ⊆ A ∧ ∃rijk | rijk ∈ rij ∧ rijk = Tij • aij }

(5.9)

A process with values of Process Attributes matching to one or more values in the set of Demanding Process Attributes is of interest as it is difficult for the user to accomplish this process with the identified set of User Characteristics. The relationship of User space, Process Space and derivation of processes for automation are depicted in Figure 5.1. This Figure depicts a number of selected User Characteristics listed as C3 , C11 , C17 , and C6 . User Constraints corresponding to one or more of these characteristics are shown as T31 , T61 , T111 , T171 , and T63 . Operational requirements for one or more of the Process Attributes of A31 , A40 , A42 , and A61 are shown as r311 , r401 , r421 , r312 , and r611 . In this example, the listed constraints are matching to the operational


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requirements. Therefore these process attributes are chosen as the Demanding Process Attributes for the selected set of User Characteristics that belong to the set of specific Users as indicated in the Figure 5.1.

5.4.2

Processes to be Automated The set of processes that are target for automation are the ones with the Process

Attribute values matching to any in DP A. The target set of processes for automation, obtained from the above derivation, is given in the set below. P A = {∀pi | pi ∈ P ∧ ∃aij | aij ∈ ai ∧ aij ∈ DP A • pi }

(5.10)

Here the implication is that by understanding the factors affecting User Characteristics, mostly from a prevalent lifestyle, followed during a period of time, a sizable segment of market may have the same automation needs.

5.5

Application To Home Automation The ultimate purpose of following REFUSS is to extract information on process

automation that can be suitable for the envisaged future market. The demand for HA products and services are invariably dependent on the Home User requirements emerging from the prevailing lifestyle. There are many Environmental Factors influencing lifestyle changes. Impact on demand for the HA products and services, due to alterations to these factors, is unpredictable. REFUSS, as detailed in the previous sections, provides a systematic and formal way of deriving process automation needs. The application of REFUSS requires a system model with identified processes. The Family System reference model developed as part of this work and the detailed analysis carried out in Chapter 4 identify processes. The Process Attributes can be derived from this information. The following section details the development of scenarios in order to formulate the future User Characteristics.

5.5.1

Creation of Home Lifestyle Scenarios Scenarios are developed to understand the plausible future lifestyle of Home Users

and the major factors influencing these lifestyles. A clear understanding of these helps


User Constraints

T31 T61 T111 T171 T63 T65

C1

C2 C7

C9 C8 C10 C5 C13 C17

User Space With User Characteristics

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Process Requirements

r311 r401 r421 r312 r611

=

C3 A11 A33 A32 A40 A41 A42 A12

C3 C6 C11 C11 C17

Process Space With Process Attributes

A31 A40 A42 AA6142

Demanding Process Attributes

System with Processes

Users

PP13 P PP26 4 P3 P4 P11 P5 P7 P8 P9

P3 P4 P6 Processes Needing Automation

Figure 5.1: Derivation of Processes for Automation


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strategists to take right decisions regarding technology investment for product development. Scenarios depicting future life styles are developed from identifying and correlating a number of factors collected. The goal here is to explore plausible lifestyles that may evolve in the next 10 to 15 years. The scenarios described in the following sections have been developed following the steps described in section 5.3.1. Initially a large number of factors that are issues or trends are identified, with the intention of detecting all Environmental Factors that influence home lifestyle setting trends. As the purpose is to prepare for the unknown future, a global perspective covering all areas is taken. In order to build the foundation for the different scenarios, the Environmental Factors listed below are considered. This is not an exhaustive list; it is filtered to accommodate only the factors that have major influence. These factors include: • Social – working parents – reducing housework time – employed single parents – use of processed food – increasing number of home appliances – desire for more leisure time – diet related diseases – period of formal education – desire for quality of life – work pressure and stress – increasing necessary services • Economical – credit card debt – energy cost – easily available credit facility


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– cost of education – job insecurity – housing cost • Political – globalisation – dynamic job market – increased mobility – information overload • Ecological – water scarcity – resource shortage – global warming – need to reduce carbon emission The impact of a factor on another factor is indicated by a numeric value ranging from 0–3 inclusive, 0 indicating no impact and 3 indicating high impact. An influence matrix is created as described in Section 5.3.1. The total impact/predictability for each of the factors is calculated using the matrix and applying the expressions given in Equations 5.7 and 5.8. These values are plotted in a two-dimensional space of the XY plane consisting of impact on X-axis and predictability on the Y-axis. The whole two-dimensional space is divided into four quarters. The most interesting factors are the ones of high impact and low predictability. These factors are located in the top right hand quadrant of the graphics space. Referring to Figure 5.2, the following factors are found to be the critical factors of high impact and low predictability. • Working parents • Cost of living • Desire for leisure time • Wish for good quality of life

Low Predictability High

129 Chapter 5: Scenario Based Future User Requirements Elicitation

Low

Processeed Food

Household Debt

Prolonged Formal Education Globalisation

Resource Shortage

Impact

Working Parents

Leisure Time Quality of Life Cost of Living Necessary Services Dynamic Job Market Work Pressure and Stress

High

Figure 5.2: Impact / Predictability Matrix


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• Increasing necessary services The major underlying factors influencing the critical factors are the skill level of women, work pressure and stress. Rise in dual income families and busier lifestyle lead to increased consumption of processed food. It is also established by the statistics available on related data as described here. In US women accounted for 46.4 per cent of the labour force in the year 2005 and the number of women in the labour force is expected to increase by almost 10.9 per cent between 2004 and 2014 (National Committee on Pay Equity, 2006). As per the Equal Opportunities Commission of Britain Report, between 1984 and 1999 the proportion of women in the labour market increased from 66 to 72 per cent (Equal Opportunities Commission, 2000). In Australia, the percentage of employed women increased from 40 per cent in 1979 to 53 per cent in 2004 (Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2006c). Increased participation of women in paid employment increases the percentage of working parents. Desire for more leisure time and better quality of life is another influential factor of high impact. The driving force behind these factors is the increased hours spent in paid work. The average weekly hours worked for full-time and part-time workers have increased in Australia over the last two decades– for men by 1.9 hours per week and for women by 1.7 hours per week (Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2006b). On the other hand the time for housework has halved over the last three decades and time women use for household work has declined by about 2 hours. The cost of living is boosted by factors such as housing costs, energy costs and increasing necessary services. Average household energy consumption per person increased by 17 per cent between 1983–84 and 2003–04 (Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2006b), which is a contributing factor to the cost of living. The above listed factors, being of high impact, and responsible for setting the trend, are called the driving forces for the present home lifestyle.

5.5.2

Three Scenarios In case of scenarios, the past and present are used to create the most predictable

future. The purpose is to create more than one future. The driving forces are grouped into two trend-setting factors of busy leisure loving society and living costs; these are taken as the dimensions of the scenarios. The horizon year is chosen as 2020. It is logical to


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Table 5.1: Future Projections: Lifestyle in 2020 Factor Busy Leisure Loving Households

Variation One 15-20% increase in Employed women

Variation Two 15-20% increase in Employed women

Variation Three 20-30% decrease in employed women

Cost of Living

reduces by 5%

increases by 5%

Increases by 5%

Driving Forces Skill level of women, smaller family size work pressure Desire for more leisure time Housing costs, energy and water costs, cost of education, many necessary services

create scenarios by contemplating alterations to these factors in both positive and negative directions deviating from the trend. Contemplating positive or negative changes to the two dimensions in association with plausible variations to the underlying factors results in four scenarios. The factors and the contemplated changes are provided in Table 5.1. The best-case scenario is developed by allowing positive variations to one of the dimensions that is most desirable and negative variations to the other dimension. This gives rise to Variation One resulting in Scenario One as indicated in Table 5.1. The most probable scenario is worked out by allowing variations to the chosen factors following the current trend, as Variation Two leading to Scenario 2. The worst case Scenario is worked out to be extremely dissimilar to the current trend by allowing a substantial negative change to the most critical factor and contemplating changes to other factors in this direction. This is indicated by Variation Three resulting in Scenario Three. Scenario Four depicts the history where both factors have negative changes, which is not discussed in detail here. The scenarios are illustrated in Figure 5.3. The following three scenarios are created by using the plausible impact to lifestyle if any one set of the above listed changes occurs. Scenario Two depicts the future that may evolve following the trend; this is the most expected. The other two scenarios can be used to visualize futures in case of a surprise shift to the trend-setting forces due to some unforeseen reasons. The three scenarios and the dimensions are shown in Figure 5.3.


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Busy Leisure Loving Society Automated Home with Reduced Resource Use Low Living Costs History

Fully Automated Home High Living Costs Homes with Low Automation

Society for Sustainability

Figure 5.3: Scenarios Scenario 1: Automated Home Supporting lower cost of living In this scenario there is a division of trend. Following the current trend the use of processed food and percentage of working women increases. The society is leisure loving and at the same time very concerned about the increasing cost of living. The major contributing factors are costs of housing and resources – power, gas, fuel, and water. Every effort is made to reduce the cost of living. As the population grows, water becomes a scarce resource and the price is increased. Many actions are taken to reduce the capital cost and the running cost of maintaining houses. The average size of the house is reduced and houses are built to use natural sunlight and breeze effectively. Use of HVAC systems is reduced. Each house has its own rain water tanks, grey water systems and water distribution systems. An electrical power production system is also built into the house. The home office is more formally established to reduce commuting to centrally located offices and thus counterfeit spending on fuel. Young mothers are given more flexibility in their working hours enabling them to facilitate early childhood education at home. This reduces expenditure on education and travelling costs. The lifestyle changes described above produce additional automation needs such as energy management, monitoring and distribution of water, monitoring and control of resource use.


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Scenario 2: Leisure Loving Busy Families and Householders In this scenario, by 2020 the percentage of working women has increased by 20 per cent globally resulting in more than 60 per cent of dual income families. More than 40 percent of the employed women have taken up skilled jobs demanding higher commitment. This became a necessity as the cost of living increased due to price hikes in housing, energy and water. The percentage of fully or partially employed people increased substantially due to the increase in retirement age also. These trends resulted in a society of people who are richer and busier. People are more stressed due to their full-time jobs in a highly dynamic environment. Globalisation has resulted in more international business and increased travel by employees of corporate businesses. As women became more involved in corporate activities due to handling of executive positions they needed to spend time to socialise with colleagues and business friends. Under these circumstances it became extremely difficult to look after household duties, being away from home more often, or mentally tired or busy. Generally women commenced their jobs soon after their studies; taking up more interest in their career significantly reduced their expertise and enthusiasm in managing the household. Earning a good income and engaging in a stressful job during the day prompted people to have more leisure time and an improved quality of life. As women are well-employed, they play a major role in purchasing and facilitating households with modern amenities. As more and more women take up skilled and managerial jobs, households need to be easily maintainable, cooking less tedious and time efficient, and also it should provide a relaxing environment. Better quality life style and leisurely activities become more prominent. Use of processed food is not considered as the best alternative to cooking for the generally health conscious society. As people are often away from home for job, education, and business trips, Home Users consume food mostly from outside home. But quality of food is maintained; there are systems in place to ensure that a balanced diet is followed. As the overall living cost is high, finance is carefully managed to support the desired high quality. Scenario 3: Enlightened Hardworking Society Promoting Sustainability The extreme modernisation and automation are found to be having an adverse effect on the sustainability of the human population due to global warming and other


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environmental disasters. Governments and other social organisations started promoting a more traditional way of life, consuming less industrialised products and resources. As a result of such drastic changes in policies world wide, an entirely different life style is followed by a majority of people. Government policies promote mothers to stay at home and look after the children as many social issues have been on the increase. People are strongly advised to use more fresh food rather than processed food. As the full-time housewife role re-appeared, growing vegetables, making snack food, and dress-making became usual household activities. In this new lifestyle some of the older traditions regained practice such as the use of more fresh food and home-made snack food. Households produced energy for their own use and also water collection and distribution became a household responsibility. This scenario depicts a lifestyle with an entirely different set of characteristics and thus automation needs. The women did more physical work and generally people felt more physically tired after mundane activities during the day. As people engaged in more labour involving work the average skill level reduced.

5.5.3

Automation Needs For a Society Following Scenario Two Lifestyle The automation needs are worked out for the Scenario Two only, as this is the

most expected. As the method used is formalised and the generic information on User Characteristics and Process Attributes are worked out, the automation needs for other scenarios can be derived any time as and when required. It is quite possible to modify the automation needs based on signals of deviation from the expected future. Derivation of User Characteristics and Process Attributes A number of User Characteristics are listed below, and based on these, different values can be chosen from the enumerated list as per the lifestyle followed. These are the set of User Characteristics that have a closer relationship with the process use. Each scenario described above produces a different set of values. The User Characteristics include: • Engagement: {hectic, busy, mostly busy, free} • Emotional state: {stressed, tired, relaxed }


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• Physical state: {energetic, tired, exhausted} • Skill level: {skilled, semi-skilled, unskilled } • Availability {available, mostly available, rarely available, unavailable } • Time management: {planned, disorganised, unplanned, forgetful } The Family System reference model represents the basic processes used by householders. There are a number of Process Attributes that need to be considered before specific value can be set. The set of Process Attributes with a possible list of values are given below. These Process Attributes are taken considering the nature of Family Process and the user’s general perspective in carrying out these processes. • Ease of use: {simple, complex} • Time requirement: {short, time consuming, highly time consuming} • Frequency of use: {rare, intermittent, routine} • Labour requirement: {laborious, light, effortless} • Operational effectiveness: {neglected, erratic, efficient} Derivation of Processes for Automation User Characteristics are derived for the most likely lifestyle that is plausible. Householders following this lifestyle generally exhibit the User Characteristics as given below. • Engagement: hectic or busy • Emotional state: stressed • Physical state: tired • Skill Level: semi-skilled • Availability: rarely available • Time management: forgetful


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Table 5.2: Process Attributes and Operational Requirements) Process Attribute Time requirement operational effectiveness labour requirement frequency of operation Ease of use

value time-consuming erratic laborious routine complex

Requirement Time attention labour regular attention skilled operator; concentration

Selection of User Characteristics with the associated values listed above are also established by other studies which reveals that working parents feel stressed, lack free time, and engage in work related travel often being away from home (Beech et al., 2003). Each of the above User Characteristics is indicative of certain constraints in process operation. These constraints include • Time • Concentration • Physical labour • Operational skill • Regular attention • Remembrance For the Home Users having the above characteristics the following Process Attributes become demanding. The set of Demanding Process Attributes for the above set of User Characteristics can be decided logically by going through each value and considering the possibilities. A number of Process Attribute values used here are defined below for clarity. Definition 5.25 Complex Process: A process operation becomes complex to the user if it involves one or more of the tasks of accumulation of input data over a period of time, evaluation and selection of input, analysis and decision making for processing or cumbersome and lengthy processing.


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Table 5.3: Processes Having Demanding Process Attribute(DPA) Process Name

DPA

Update Stock Prepare grocery List Select Menu and Recipes Plan and Decide Meals for a Week Prepare items for cooking Cook House Cleaning Clean utensils and kitchen Budgeting Monitor diet Account Keeping Monitor Exercise Financial Planning Schedule Payment Monitor Study Progress Monitor and Control Expenses Monitor Health Parameters Schedule and attend School Events Update Inventory of Equipment Monitor and Follow Equipment services Reord and update service providers

routine routine; time consuming routine; time consuming routine; time consuming routine; time consuming routine; time consuming routine; time consuming routine; time consuming complex routine routine routine complex routine; complex routine; complex routine; complex routine time consuming complex erratic neglected

Process Type Soft Soft Soft Soft Hybrid Hybrid Hybrid Hard Soft Soft Soft Soft Soft Soft Soft Soft Soft Soft Soft Soft Soft


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Definition 5.26 Time consuming Process A process operation becomes time consuming for the user if it involves 15 minutes or more of interaction, or attention required from the user such that the user is withheld from fully engaging in any other activity. Definition 5.27 Routine Process A process operation becomes a routine activity for the user if it requires repetition at the minimum of daily, weekly, or fortnightly basis. Processes with the following Process Attribute values become demanding to complete as the Process Operational Requirements of these processes are matched to one or more of the User Constraints listed above. The set of Demanding Process Attributes and corresponding operational requirements are shown in Table 5.2. Definitions for Soft, Hard and Hybrid process types are provided in Section 4.2. Considering each of the User Characteristics, it is found that the associated constraint is a process requirement of Processes having the listed Process Attribute. Therefore processes with the above Process Attribute values become demanding to complete. Using the analysis results of the Family System, all the processes within various subsystems are listed with corresponding attributes. The set of Demanding Process Attributes derived above is used to arrive at the list of processes to be automated. The results obtained are given in Table 5.3.

5.6

Chapter Summary This chapter has introduced the new method of REFUSS developed as part of

this research. REFUSS provides a systematic and theoretically founded method to derive user requirements by relating process and user knowledge. To extend the user requirement elicitation to future user needs, REFUSS integrates the application of scenario technique. The development of REFUSS is done following a number of steps and formally defined terms. This chapter also defines the terms of Process Attributes, User Characteristics, and Demanding Process Attributes and these terms are relevant for any complex systems. The user requirement elicitation based on the process and user related factors enables a review of automation requirements in case of changes in process needs or User Characteristics. This method produces a list of processes for automation with formal reasoning and concrete justification. This chapter has presented three interesting and revealing scenarios. These scenarios expose plausible deviations to the current and anticipated future lifestyle.


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The scenario development also provides information on influential factors that can twist the present trends.

Chapter 6

Conceptual Framework For Home Information Management The application of Requirement Elicitation of Future User by Systems Scenario (REFUSS) in Chapter 5 exposes the process automation needs of Home Users following plausible future lifestyle trends. This chapter explores the possibilities of automating the Soft Processes identified for automation using REFUSS as listed in Table 5.3. Three aspects discussed here are automation of process input, process execution and delivery of process output at the right time and right place. Manual execution of Soft Processes involves use and creation of information, application of knowledge and intelligent decision making. Therefore, the automation of Soft Processes requires a System to support information processing and related tasks, thus providing Home Information Management and Intelligence Services. The automation of process input is the most critical but problematic element for achieving the desired process automation. This is critical because dependence on manual data entry is the underlying reason for the lack of popularity of currently available software products. Previous studies have found that even equipping the user with a wearable computing device to record dietary intake failed to achieve the desired result (Yon, Johnson, Harvey-Berino, & Gold, 2006). The automation of input is problematic as the data are originally created mostly by External Entities and these data reside in disparate locations in heterogeneous systems embedded in various formats. There are currently available facility for record keeping, including tools provided by External Entities such as Finance Service Providers or Communication Service Providers. Such facilities provide partial func-

140

Chapter 6: Conceptual Framework For Home Information Management

141

tionality and introduce the additional task of keeping track of separate user details for each service provider and accessing different websites. Another disadvantage is that the Home User cannot easily collate different pieces of information from various locations for further coordination and use. This study introduces the concept of an Ubiquitous Intelligence System for Home and Personal Life Management or in short UbiHoPe that facilitates the automation of identified Soft Processes. The purpose of the conceptual model UbiHoPe is to understand the framework for a system supporting automation of input, process implementation, and delivery of output from the Soft Processes. This work proposes a conceptual model named eHome that is the central unit of the UbiHope providing the necessary resources and functionalities facilitating automation of the processes. The eHome model is used to understand the software and hardware components required for the automation of the identified Soft Processes. Section 2.7 provides a brief overview of related work describing the theoretical aspects of intelligence, context and ubiquitous computing applied later in the chapter. Section 6.1 discusses the services that can be provided to the Home Users by automating the Soft Processes. Section 6.2 introduces UbiHoPe and illustrates the architecture. This section also introduces the concept of eHome. Section 6.3 discusses the software and hardware requirements for eHome. Section 6.4 discusses the issues in implementing the UbiHoPe and eHome concepts.

6.1

Automated Services The Soft Processes identified for automation using REFUSS belong to five differ-

ent subsystems – Finance, Meals, Education, Health, and Housing and Transport. The subprocesses, and input/output details of the subprocesses within each of these subsystems are provided in Sections 4.2 - 4.4. As per the analyses provided in these Sections the Soft Processes are intellectual tasks that involve use of information, knowledge based reasoning and decision making. Therefore, from the usage point of view, the automation of the Soft Processes should deliver services that can be classified into three groups that are information, knowledge and intelligence. In addition, there is need for receipt and storage of data from External Entities as well as data produced by subprocesses as depicted in the DFDs provided in Chapter 4.


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Based on this, the automation needs to deliver the following category of services. 1. Data Collection and Storage 2. Information Service 3. Knowledge Service 4. Intelligence Service These services and associated functionalities are discussed in the following sections. A number of terms used in the discussions in this chapter are formally defined for clarity and simplicity. Definition 6.28 Data consists of one or more elements having specific values, from a range of values, required as process input or produced as process output and can be represented electronically. Definition 6.29 Data Source is any electronically representable material containing Data. Definition 6.30 Originator is any External Entity, Home User, other person, system, or application that creates or owns Data or a Data Source. For example a utility bill is a Data Source and there are various Data embedded in this Data Source. These include payment details: payment due date, payment amount, and bill reference number. There are other Data included in this Data Source that may be used for processing such as usage details. The Originator in this case is an External Entity who is a service provider. The Soft Processes require Data from Data Sources such as bills, purchase receipts, warranties, manuals, news letters, insurance contracts, payment receipts, school reports, medical reports, mortgage documents, application forms, taxation related documents, pay slips, recipes, invoices, and statements from financial institutions. Personal details of Family members are also required for Soft Process execution and examples include food preferences, work schedules, diet constraints, important dates, details of extended family and friends. An example set of various Data Sources, Data involved, input frequency, and the Originators involved are listed in Table 6.1. Currently, these Data Sources are mostly electronically generated, but are provided to Home Users in printed form; however, there is a gradual shift to electronic delivery.


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Mostly, delivery of these Data Sources is Originator initiated. The Originators use a variety of software applications/systems for creating these Data Sources; these may include database applications, web based tools, or domain specific specialised software applications. The Data Collection and Storage service is required to collect and store the Data Sources electronically and to extract the required Data from these Data Sources for facilitating process input and future use by the Home User.

6.1.1

Data Collection and Storage The analyses conducted in Sections 4.2 - 4.4 depict process input requirements for

both processing and control. The goal of automation should be nil to minimum manual data entry by the Home User. This is the most critical, but problematic, aspect of achieving automation. To achieve this goal, the required functionalities include: 1. Collection and Storage of Data Sources 2. Extraction of Data from Data Sources 3. Automated Communication

Taxonomy of Data Sources It is required to categorise and group Data Sources for processing purposes and later easy accessibility of documents by the user. From the usage point of view these Data Sources can be classified into the following categories. • FA (For Action) A Data Source can be classified as FA type if it contains Data for the Home User to take action. For example an invoice is for action; therefore it belongs to the category of FA and requires Data extraction. • FI (For Information) These type of Data Source contain data informing the Home User any specific details. A letter from a finance service provider is an example.


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Table 6.1: Details of Input Data Data Source Form Form Form Report Online book purchase receipt Database Database progress report Newsletter Invoice Invoice Pay slip Purchase Receipt Payment Receipt Insurance Policy Bank Statement Payment Notice Prescription

Data Meals Details Menus Food Preferences Diet Constraints Recipes Grocery details Ingredient List Nutrition Information Academic Result School events Utility charge Govt. Fees and Charges Wages Grocery Expense Repair, services Insurance premium Allowances Tax Return Medication

Frequency Configuration Configuration Configuration Configuration Configuration Weekly As required As required

Subsystem Meals Meals Meals Meals Meals Meals Meals Meals

Originator Home User Home User Home User Home User External Entity External Entity External Entity External Entity

Termly Weekly Quarterly Quarterly

Education Education Finance Finance

External External External External

Entity Entity Entity Entity

Fortnightly Weekly As required Monthly

Finance Finance Finance Finance

External External External External

Entity Entity Entity Entity

Monthly Annual As Required

Finance Finance Health

External Entity External Entity External Entity


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• FR (For Records) A Data Source that needs to be stored only for record purposes belongs to this category. An example is a payment receipt. • FIR (For Information and Reference) A manual received is for information and future reference only, belonging to the category of FIR; the facility to easily access a particular part of the manual is the requirement. The processing required and the amount of Data to be extracted vary a lot based on the above classification. The correct categorisation of Data Sources requires the system to extract some document-specific information. What information can the system use for correctly identifying the category of retrieved Data Source? This information could be based on the document content, Originator, time, type of document or a combination of these. How can this information be obtained? What search criteria can be formulated for user accessibility? There should be well-formulated criteria to remove or archive an existing Data Source. Data storage is required for Data Sources received from Originators who are External Entities, Home User generated data, and data generated during processing required for later use. In the absence of Originator initiated delivery of Data Source this service needs to initiate communication with the Originator and obtain the Data Source/Data. Automated Communication There is a need to facilitate automated communication for two types of input Data. The first type is Data required from Data Sources that are not sent by Originator initiated delivery. The second type is context dependent and temporal Data. These Data collection details are discussed below. This service needs to detect and initialise communication to collect Data Sources when there is an absence of Originator initiated delivery. An example is the collection of Data related to purchased grocery items. The Ingredient List (IL) and Nutritional Information (NI) are provided by the manufacturer for processed food; these details are required for dietary analysis, and the monitoring and control of diet as discussed in Section


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4.4. It is required to communicate with the Retailer’s/manufacturer’s product database to collect IL and NI for any new food item purchased. Effective automated communication is required to obtain temporal process specific input from the Home User. The collection of such Data becomes critical from the fact that, at the time of prompting the Home User may not have the required details and this input can be left unfilled. For example, a guest being present for a meal, the user may not remember that the food constraints of the particular guest are absent. This service needs to devise suitable communication modalities for the collection of contextual and temporal Data. The initiation and use of an appropriate medium of communication becomes critical considering the ubiquity of the Home User, thereby variations to connectivity using heterogeneous devices. These devices include a home PC, office workstation, a mobile device, or a TV. An example is obtaining current activity and expected completion time from a Family member when there is an unexpected deviation from schedule.

6.1.2

Information Service This service is significant for facilitating effective access to all Family related infor-

mation to the Family members and related agencies as permitted. By availing this facility this service becomes the Family’s/individual’s single access point for all necessary records such as invoices, purchase details, warranties, contracts, insurance policies, and certificates. This service provides a digital repository for statistical reports and other information such as medical history. Some examples of statistical reports are listed below. • Statistical Reports 1. Yearly energy consumption 2. Half-yearly mobile phone expense 3. Annual fuel expense 4. Annual transport expense 5. Annual consumption of cleaning materials 6. Annual consumption of specific grocery item 7. Annual consumption of processed food


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8. Annual expenditure on take away and eat out 9. Annual medical expenses. • Family Member Related Information 1. Medical History 2. Immunisation details 3. Diet Constraints 4. Academic Information 5. Employment History. • Household Details 1. Appliance Details 2. Insurance Details 3. Service Provider Details. 4. Equipment Service Schedule As there are accumulated data, statistical reports providing desired information can be generated with minimum effort and minor configuration. This service needs to facilitate the organised storage of Data Sources and extracted Data with efficient search/retreival for accessibility. The data collection discussed in previous section produces two types of records: original Data Sources in document formats and extracted process specific Data in structured formats. A good proportion of both of these are required to be stored for further use by the processes. An example is payment details extracted from invoices and utility bills as given in Table 6.2. Such extracted Data provide information on the required payments to be made.

6.1.3

Knowledge Service The purpose of this service is to empower the Home User to be proactive in avoid-

ing known problems with technology assistance. These include problems in managing time, finance and a balanced diet. The Soft Processes that can be of assistance in dealing with these problems include payment scheduling, scheduling of time for attending school events, scheduling of equipment servicing, budgeting, and meals planning involving selection of


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Table 6.2: Information on Bill Payments Payment Name Electricity Rate Telephone Vehicle Insurance Health Insurance School Fees

Biller Origin 1800 Council 78550 Primus 28650 RACQ 58350 MBP 230045 Loreto 373266

Bill No 77637909 50001014 31983181077 51963181000 60002014 21960

Amount 235.60 580.35 180.50 112.50 87.50 1200.00

Due Date 6-11-08 07-11-08 22-11-08 24-11-08 12-11-08 2-11-08

meals, menus and recipes. The scheduling requires evaluation of conditions and implementation of rules that involves application of Computational Intelligence (CI) converting the Data to applicable knowledge. Time scheduling may require evaluation of the availability of Family members, the time required for the task completion, and the urgency to complete the task. Example Services The examples given below demonstrate the use of knowledge services for enhancing the Home User tasks. • Payment Scheduling The payment schedule should enable the correct payment in time within the constraints of available funds and problem-free cash flow. Initially Data need to be extracted on the required payment from Data Sources such as bills, and invoices to generate information on payment as shown in Table 6.2. There can be problems to avoid, while the payment needs to be completed. These problems may include cash flow and credit-related issues. A Home User may not want to exceed certain credit limits. At the same time there could be constraints within which the payment needs to be completed. These constraints may include currently available funds, required funds, and receivable payments. It is required to create applicable knowledge using the extracted information by scheduling payments within the constraints of current account balance, saving plan, debt reduction plan if any, income, and avoiding cash flow problems. The generated schedule enables the Home User to make payments in time; this reduces inconveniences or risks associated with mismanaging payments.


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• Meals Scheduling Taking another example of meals planning, there are a number of factors to be considered such as available time for cooking, persons present for each meal, any guests present, their food preferences, grocery items nearing expiry and dietary restrictions. Built-in rules and inference are required to produce a meals plan that meets the requirements. A well formulated meals schedule for a week provides applicable information or knowledge to prepare the meals. By providing integrated information on many of the tasks to be carried out by Family members, this service facilitates easy coordination between family members. For example Family members can share the meals plan and share cooking tasks in an informed way. Also, it provides assistance with re-scheduling on variations to the scheduled activity.

6.1.4

Intelligence Service This service enhances decision making by providing context-specific knowledge.

This service uses the already formulated information and knowledge in association with derived context to produce context specific messages or signals. An example is delivering a warning message on an attempt to purchase an item that exceeds budgetary measures. Generation of warning messages or control signals to trigger events requires context derivation. This service needs to infer intelligence by associating context to already existing knowledge. For example the generated payment schedule builds knowledge on funding required at various times. Having this knowledge, a purchase request made by the Home User can be approved or disapproved. Here derivation of context and use of existing knowledge are required to produce the message, the context being the task of purchasing and time. Also this knowledge could be used to produce a reminder message to make the payment in time or to organise funds. In this case the knowledge and context of time is used to produce the intelligent advice. The requirement for ubiquitous intelligence can be understood from the full context information. The above example used the task as contextual information. The spatial and temporal information related to this task are also important. The purchase request can be made as part of planning done at home, or in a shop after seeing the item, or at the time of purchasing the item and making the payment. In this case the knowledge from the payment schedule is used at home, inside the shop or at the counter. In the first two cases


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the intelligent advice is produced in response to user request; the third case provides an example use of ambient intelligence as it is produced without effort from the Home User. • Monitoring and control of personal diet: an example For complete dietary monitoring it is essential to include food consumed at and away from home. Details of food consumed away from home need to be obtained from the specific food purchase place. This requires identifying the user, and obtaining details of food purchased – name, and serve size. Food consumed at home can be established from the meals schedule followed or from the grocery purchase and consumption. Such accumulated data can be used to produce statistical information on individuals’ diet that may be valuable input in the case of a person having diet-related health issues. There are several free online databases providing food composition and nutrition facts; one of the prominent ones is International Nutrient Databank Directory maintained by National Nutrient Databank Conference (Pennington et al., 2007). On availability of food consumption details, the rest of the data for dietary analysis can be extracted from these databases and integrated. The diet restrictions and food purchase can be monitored and controlled with context specific messages or control signals. The implication is that a Home User could obtain a personalised menu at a restaurant or could obtain warning messages on food purchases that is unhealthy. Control can be established in two ways, by application of ambient intelligence or by user alert. In the former case, control signals are generated based on in-built rules without the need for the Home User to initiate specific requests. In the latter case, the responsibility is transferred to the user by the requirement to input specific requests. The two options of implementing control necessitates the Home User to choose situations where control is required, and others where the Home User receives an advisory message rather than a control signal. There can be varying levels of control such as warning messages, alerts, or refusal of service. The requirement is to have the right information, at the right time and right place. This can be achieved by ubiquitous intelligence and computing. Messaging A very common phenomenon in daily life is forgetting already scheduled commitments, especially when people are under various pressures. This service is required


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to produce messages that could be timely reminders for tasks already scheduled, warning messages on deviation, or information messages on other family members’ status on activities. These messages provide the Home User with intelligent advice that is context specific, appropriate to the time and place. Currently available systems can produce less context specific messages at the cost of consistent data entry from the user. This service needs to automatically generate these messages based on the already generated information and correctly derived context of time, place and task related information. For example an already generated payment schedule can be used for automatically generating reminders on required payment on the date of payment or alerts on funding problems. Flexibility or Overriding facility In most cases the process automation introduces a certain amount of structure to the home and personal lifestyle. In a home environment, Home Users generally follow a structured lifestyle, but not always. One of the most important requirement for a system enabling the services discussed in previous sections is to make the final output and the reasons/rules for arriving at that output known to the user as well as provide easy overriding facility for the Home User. The reason for this requirement is discussed here. In spite of providing assistance to the Home User, the automated services have a mixed flavour of control and support; the control happens by formalising and structuring individual’s behaviour within pre-set rules. On the other hand, the user obtains support in organising, scheduling and coordinating activities in an informed way. There can be three situations where the generated control or advisory message may not be welcomed by the user. These include: 1. The inference goes wrong 2. User desired deviation to the set pattern 3. Lack of available input Establishment of control facility using built-in rules and inferencing produce issues of unwanted or unnecessary control signals produced by the system; these can be annoying


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to the user. Therefore, easy overriding facility is an essential requirement in the case of pre-set control signals.

6.2

Ubiquitous Intelligence System for Home and Personal Life Management (UbiHoPe) This section introduces the framework of UbiHoPe that provides the services dis-

cussed in Section 6.1 for enhancing daily activities of Home Users by automating the Soft Processes. The UbiHoPe is a conceptual model used for understanding the architectural components of a potential system automating the services. The analyses of past developments in HA conducted in Section 2.5 establishes the lack of model for reference and a conceptual framework. The UbiHoPe and eHome conceptual models rectifies this problem. The UbiHoPe framework is designed based on the analyses conducted using the Family System reference model as provided in Chapter 4. The requirement for: • bidirectional communication with External Entities • accessibility to information while away from home • process execution and data storage facilities are evident from the analyses. This work proposes a conceptual model named eHome that is the central unit of the UbiHoPe providing the necessary resources and facilitating automation of the processes. This is in view of the requirement for data storage and process implementation facilities. Connection of eHome with Home User Devices is necessary for facilitating accessibility to Home Users while away from home. Being a conceptual model the physical location of a potential implementation of eHome can be within the house or away from the house. Therefore, it is necessary to show the connectivity between eHome and the home devices for clarity. Use of Internet for connecting eHome with other devices and systems avoids additional infrastructure. The uniqueness of the proposed model is the interconnection of existing systems with minor modification/addition of components and reduced augmentation of environment to achieve the ubiquitous computing and intelligence. The conceptual models provided in this study are not design specifications for development.


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Retailer Manufacturer/ Service Provider

DB Server WebServer Household

Home User Appliance PC

Point of Sale Terminal Internet

Home User Mobile Device Home User Office Workstation

eHome

Webserver DB Server Application Server

Figure 6.1: Architecture For UbiHoPe The UbiHoPe functions with a number of components distributed in various systems and devices. These include systems distributed among External Entities – such as web servers, database servers, and networking systems, Point Of Sale Terminal (POST) at retailers, mobile devices of Home Users, Home Appliance sensors and other related communicating devices and the eHome. The architecture of the conceptual model of UbiHoPe is shown in Figure 6.1. The Retailer, Manufacturer/Service Provider equipment shown in Figure 6.1 are representative of the systems of External Entities. In most of the retail sales transactions the data transfer involves a Point of Sale Terminal. This becomes an essential part of the UbiHoPe in providing Data and facilitating information access.

6.2.1

eHome the Virtual Home The eHome becomes a virtual home having all home related information and fa-

cilitating all information services required for managing the home. The eHome has • Information about the inhabitants of the house • Objects representing equipment, appliances and other items within the house • Documents and databases on all home related matters. • Applications to access, modify or add information from anywhere. • Networking facilities to communicate with external systems.


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Everything one needs to know about the Family members, or other items related to the home, is available through the eHome. This is achieved by having the hardware and software required for implementing the automated services discussed in Section 6.1. The eHome has to facilitate global operational accessibility for the Home User enabling a mobile Family, as discussed in Chapter 4. Allowing this, a Family or Family member should be able to use the services from any part of the world at any time. This operational accessibility should allow a Family member to access already stored records, modify existing records, or input new Data. The eHome enables communication either over the Internet or directly, as required with other systems and devices within the UbiHoPe. The very basic requirement of ambient intelligence systems enabling unobtrusive responds to interaction of users is achieved by seamlessly integrated proactive computing devices that can communicate with heterogeneous systems (Sadeh et al., 2006; Serral, Valderas, & Pelechano, 2008).

6.2.2

Point Of Sale Terminal (POST) Here the author proposes a smart POST. A smart POST is required to enable

Originator initiated Data transfer to the eHome in case of sales transactions involving Home Users. The smart POST in a retailer’s outlet enables the Home User to collect and transfer the required information related to purchased goods. At the time of a sales transaction processing, the smart POST identifies the Family member and Family with the associated eHome, and establishes communication with the eHome. The smart POST sends the purchase list and payment receipt to the eHome. If necessary the eHome establishes communication with the maufacturer/retailer’s database. The database server of eHome then retrieves all the necessary documents related to the transaction, such as product details, warranty and user manuals from the database. In the case of online shopping the Home Users receives a purchase list and payment receipt in electronic form. These documents are in read only format. The processing and data extraction issues related to such documents are discussed in Section 7.3.

6.2.3

Wearable computing Devices that provide computing facilities and always attached to the person are

a necessary requirement for the ubiquitous use of information services. Wearable comput-


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ing devices are unceasingly available to users, typically attached to the body or clothes (Narayanaswami, 2006). Cell phone is the most popular wearable computing device owned by more than a billion people and some cell phones come with 640 x 480 pixel display, 32 GB hard disk, proximity sensor, integrated GPS (Global Positioning System), Wi-Fi 802.11xx, Bluetooth and digital camera (Phonegg, 2008). The Wireless Application Protocol (WAP) consists of multiple layers providing presentation and delivery of information on mobile terminal connected via Internet to other servers. This enables the connectivity between eHome and a wearable computing device using the Internet. Another promising contributor is electronic labels or Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) tags.

6.2.4

Systems of External Entities The listing provided in Table 6.1 clearly shows that a large number of Data Sources

originate from External Entities. This necessitates communication between the systems of External Entities and the eHome. The External Entities of medium to large sizes have systems in place for storage and transfer of these Data Sources. These generally include database servers, web servers and middleware applications. Automated data transfer to the eHome requires modifications to the business process design and related systems of the External Entities involved. Additional steps are required in the current business processes due to the extra communication and verifications necessary. On the other hand, businesses are shifting from hard copy delivery of documents to electronic document delivery. Currently, there is no uniform method for such electronic delivery. There are different methods used, including email attachment of pdf file, web pages, comma separated value files downloadable from websites, CDs and document files. There is an awareness of the need for reducing paper usage. Networked electronic data delivery following a uniform method can replace the currently followed processes that need more resources.

6.3

eHome Architecture and Functions The eHome is the central unit of the UbiHoPe framework that facilitates the in-

terconnection of heterogeneous systems and devices enabling the automated services. The eHome consists of a number of technical layers that are physical and logical units collaborating to provide the automated services.


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Middleware Layer Access Control Servers Web, email, Database Service Manager Inference Engine Knowledge Base Physical Layer Figure 6.2: Technical Layers of e-Home

6.3.1

Technical Layers of eHome A number of collaborating logical layers and their functions are discussed in the

following sections. The layered architecture is illustrated in Figure 6.2. Physical Layer This layer consists of the Data Repository for storage and retrieval of Data Sources, and networking components of cables, and other necessary software and hardware. This layer also contains the Database holding extracted structured data or formatted input Data received from Home Users. The Home User related Data include user profiles containing user preferences and other details. An object repository that stores objects representing physical items at home also forms part of this layer. These objects provide a virtual view of every item at home such as equipment, appliances and so on. These objects have a dynamic state as their details reflect the current details of items they represent. This object repository is logically part of the UbiHope, but it can be physically located away from the house where backup facilities are provided. The storage of Data Sources requires two components: a repository for the ac-


157

tual Data Sources in various file formats and a database storing metadata of these stored elements. Efficient functioning of search/retrieval facility of Data Sources depends on the correct storage of metadata. Middleware Layer This layer consists of applications dealing with inter-operability issues due to the heterogeneous applications and devices the eHome interacts with. These applications makes the interfacing possible by implementing suitable adapters and converters enabling interaction with heterogeneous Home User devices and systems of External Entities. The eHome needs to communicate with systems of Originators in the client mode to collect/receive Data. On the other hand eHome should provide data to external systems of Originators in the server mode to facilitate customised/personalised service to a Family member by a service provider. For example to generate a personalised menu in a restaurant, the order taking system has to collect the food preferences and constraints from the eHome. The eHome has to provide knowledge and intelligence services to the user requests using remotely connected devices such as user mobile phone or a PC. Web services can play a role in facilitating these services. A Web Services Description Language (WSDL) that describes a service’s interface, a Simple Object Access Protocol(SOAP) used for transporting XML messages, and a Universal Description, Discovery, and Integration (UDDI) directory for storing information are the components of web services (Pashtan, 2005). The other applications forming part of this layer include those for file format conversion and data extraction. Knowledge Base This layer consists of modules used to build rules and cases that need to be applied for achieving autonomous services, codified knowledge amenable and effective for use based on facts and relationships. The knowledge service described in Section 6.1.3 requires codified knowledge for proper functioning. There are various techniques used for knowledge codification such as decision tables, decision trees, frames, and production rules (Awad & Ghaziri, 2003). These techniques provide systematic method to record reasoning applied in arriving at a final schedule or decision; this helps in later modifications, or convincing other family members. The Home User’s static context, and task related information forms part


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of the context model stored in the knowledge base. Information stored in the databases within the physical layer is used for creating knowledge. Inference Engine This is responsible for applying the rules to arrive at a conclusion or choice in specific situation evaluating the existing conditions against the set rules. Most of the intellectual tasks such as scheduling, coordinating, involves reasoning. The human reasoning is quite complex and may involve techniques such as intuition, deduction, or induction. This layer consists of programs that manages the application of knowledge from the knowledge base to derive reasonable inferences using context specific information. This layer is responsible for deriving the actual context from the stored context and the dynamic context–spatial, temporal and/or currently chosen task. As discussed in Section 2.7, the current user activity, required task, task specific information, and the user related information are used by this layer for deriving the context. Services Manager This layer manages the available eHome services by maintaining a searchable service registry, addition/deletion of services, activation or deployment of service. The services belong to one of the categories discussed in Section 6.1 . Each service has associated input data requirement for control and processing. Having the information on input requirements for each service, this layer has modules to formulate and send queries to the Database Server/Web Server for extracting data from the internal Database or systems of Originators. These modules initiate communication with systems of External Entities to obtain Data Sources in the absence of Originator initiated data transfer. Access Control The eHome having the repository of all family related documents and information, security is of prime importance. This layer has the necessary software for generating unique authentication for the users, as well as setting different levels of access. This layer checks attempts on unauthorised access and has the verification techniques.


159

The other requirement is to enforce privacy and confidentiality of stored information. This may require enforcing data security by encryption before sending and decryption of received data. This layer handles the necessary protocols for enforcing data security. Server Layer The Data Sources received from Originators need to be categorised and stored as discussed in Section 6.1.1. There is a need for proper structuring and storage of extracted data from these Data Sources. Such extracted data is required for providing information and knowledge services. Therefore, the eHome requires a Database server to handle database related functions such as storage, data manipulation and archiving. In facilitating a database management system, the server enables data access, search facilities, and security for stored data. This has to support storage and access of documents and structured data. A Web server forms part of the eHome to provide the functionality of global accessibility. The Home User should be able to access the system using a mobile device, TV or PC through Web Client. One of the communication method for the eHome to collect data or send messages is email. To facilitate this an email server is required.

6.3.2

Unique Authentication and Verification The eHome implemented for each Family needs unique identification as well as

each Family Member or individual associated with an eHome, as necessary. Taking a global perspective this identification needs to be internationally accepted. In case of generating a new method of identification it should be easy to generate and use. Once an individual or family is uniquely identified, there is a need for the eHome and other External Entities involved to verify a Home User in association with the eHome against the claimed identity. Being the Family’s digital repository of all family related data with the ubiquitous accessibility, enforcing secure access is of prime importance. Before finalising the security measures it is necessary to formulate the different types of users requiring access to the eHome as well as varying levels of accessibility requirement. The different types of users include: • External Entities


160

• Adult family members • Child family members • Extended family The External Entities can be categorised into two groups, Group One, which has to transfer data on a regular basis and, Group Two which may need data transfer once or occasionally. An example of an External Entity belonging to Group One category is a utility service provider such as Energy supplier. A Group Two category example of an External Entity is a PC retailer. These two groups need restricted access to transfer data. Group Two could be given once-only access, whereas Group One may need a longer time-span restricted access. Adult family members need access to the eHome to use the services, perform required data entry and alter service details. Child family members need access to the eHome to use some of the services. For example, a school-going child may need to access the system to view changes in his/her parent’s work schedule. Once an individual or family is uniquely identified, there is a need for the eHome and other External Entities involved to verify a user against the claimed identity.

6.4

Deployment of UbiHoPe Assuming all the stake holders involved in materialising the UbiHoPe concept

agree on data availability, accessibility and other policy related issues, there remain many technical aspects that need further attention. There are many issues related to obtain the required data in a timely manner for achieving automation of the processes. Some of these aspects are discussed here. The Data sources are heterogeneous in their format and content, as evident from the listing provided in Table 6.1; these can be categorised as structured, semi-structured and unstructured, from formatting point of view. There exists the task of extracting required Data for the process from these Data sources. This necessitates investigation of technology needs and further development of technology as required to realise this functionality. These issues are further discussed in Section 7.3.


6.4.1

161

Data Transfer and Maintenance Issues There are a large number of External Entities who are the Originators of Data

Sources. The collection of Data Sources from these Originators pauses some related issues in terms of the frequency of data transfer, the amount of data transferred, and initiation of data transfer. Originator initiated data transfer can be one time only or it can be a regularly occurring event. Is there a need to verify that the transferred Data Source is right? There should be methods to deal with unwanted transfer of Data Sources by mistake or on purpose. This may involve regular scanning, filtering and removal of unwanted Data Sources based on set criteria and rules. The collection of Data Sources necessitates communicating with heterogeneous applications conforming to different data transfer techniques and communication protocols. • User Data Entry Requirement One of the major problems faced by Home Users is the lack of time, skills and willingness to enter data consistently. Automation in data collection is very critical for the success of automating the Soft Processes. The performance of the envisaged eHome depends on the availability of data at the right time and in the right format. The data entry required from users should be nil to minimum. • Availability of Data Generally data is available in electronic format. There could be many situations where data is totally unavailable or unavailable in electronic format: for example nutritional information for a food purchased from a small to medium restaurant. The likelihood of required data availability is debatable here. Otherwise, data may be available, but not in electronic format. • Type of Data In the case of electronically available Data Sources, these can be in various types: structured, semi-structured or unstructured. For example the data kept in a manufacturer’s database are structured, whereas a school newsletter is unstructured. The technology needs to extract required data from different types of Data Sources are discussed in Section 7.3.


162

• Data Format There are large variations in the formatting of Data Sources belonging to various data types. Structured data of a specific DB application are formatted with semantics specific to that entity. Even obtaining structured data does not guarantee interoperability. • Lack of standards There are no standards guiding the formatting of data so that meaning can be easily interpreted. For example an invoice or bill may use various terms such as ’payment due’, ’due date’, ’pay by’ or ’due on’ to mean the bill payment due date. These terms may appear in different positions in different bills. • Data Retrieval The eHome needs to query user or External Entities to obtain required data in case the data transfer is not Originator initiated. This requires automated query formulation and analysis of query results. • Problem Definition and Abstraction Knowledge codification requires problem definition in terms of conditions. The problems should be identified and defined such that they are readily applicable for a larger user base. Such generic problem definition could be difficult considering the diverse characteristics of the Home Users. It is also required to consider the maintainability of the codified knowledge in terms of adaptability to cater for changes in the Home User requirements. • System Administration A system administrator is necessary to maintain the eHome involving many software applications, operating system, networking and middleware applications. The maintenance include configuration, upgrading, backing up, addition/removal of software components, and sorting out networking and security issues in a proactive way to provide the required reliability.


6.4.2

163

eHome as a Product In this case the eHome system can be built from a base module and a number

of easily add-on modules where the Home Users can purchase the system with a selected number of modules as a product. Vendor support is an essential requirement in this case, for assisting the Home Users with installation and configuration as well as on-going support for maintenance. The Home Users need to pay upfront the full price of the product and they need to bear the on-going cost of maintenance as required. The Home Users are also responsible to acquire and maintain necessary hardware, PC and networking, to support the eHome software. As the data security and safety are critical, the Home User has to ensure appropriate back up facility. As a family moves from one Phase of the Family Life Cycle to another, addition or removal of modules and associated configuration are required.

6.4.3

eHome as a Service The eHome as a product option may be less attractive in the market considering

the higher cost involved at the beginning and as well as the additional responsibilities of software and hardware maintenance involved. In the case of availing eHome as a Service the Home User needs to pay only a service fee and can use all the functionality of the eHome. This research introduces the concept of a Home Information Service Provider (HISP) to facilitate the Home User with eHome service, without the additional responsibility of installing and maintaining the eHome. The HISP facilitates and manages the eHome Services collectively for a larger number of Home Users, thus making it cheaper and more attractive. The HISP collects details for configuring the service as well as for updating as required. Security for stored data and back up facilities are provided by the HISP. This could be more economical, compared to maintaining individual system for each Family. The idea of an external provider holding all information related to Family members may not be convincing. Currently, such information is distributed among many service providers such as government agencies, various health service providers, and other agencies. The Home User needs to keep track of many access details including different authentication methods.


6.5

164

Chapter Summary Based on the process knowledge obtained from the analysis conducted using the

Family System reference model, this chapter proposes a number of automated services. These are generic services combining many processes across subsystems. This chapter also discusses the Home User ubiquity and the requirement to manage time, money and food related activities. A conceptual framework named UbiHoPe for home and personal life management is introduced. An eHome forms central part of the UbiHoPe having the software and hardware components for achieving the automation. The technology needs and technology gaps for materialising the UbiHoPe and the eHome concepts are discussed in the next chapter.

Chapter 7

Innovative Product Ideas and Investment Opportunities The process automation needs identified in Section 5.5 provide valuable insight into the future market needs of Home Users following the most plausible lifestyle trends. The conceptual model presented in Chapter 6 depicts the possibilities of automating the Soft Processes and resulting services. This chapter is dedicated to estimate market size, and to transform the process automation needs into more pragmatic ideas of products and services. This chapter also investigates technology investment opportunities for developing the proposed products and services. Section 7.1 provides estimation of a target market based on statistical data from three countries that is indicative of the actual market size. Section 7.2 presents a number of innovative product ideas derived from the identified process automation needs, and discusses their functional and non-functional requirements. Section 7.3 investigates the required technology to develop the proposed software based products and services, analyses the limitations of current technology and identifies technology gaps. Section 7.4 discusses the technology needs, and limitations of the current technology for the development of the proposed robotic devices. Section 7.5 presents a plan for development of the suggested products and services and explores technology investment opportunities.

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Chapter 7: Innovative Product Ideas and Investment Opportunities

7.1

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Target Market Currently, market research and estimated market values are unavailable for the

products and services proposed in this research. This study has estimated a target market size that is indicative of a substantial market. The Family Life cycle concepts are applied for segmenting the market and available census data are used in the market size calculations. The reasons for the absence of market information and logical correctness of the approach used to address this issue are detailed in the following paragraphs. The analysis carried out using the Family System reference model, user requirements derived using REFUSS, and the UbiHoPe conceptual framework developed, produce a new perspective on Home Automation products that are innovative. The envisaged HA products and services are not taken into consideration by market research groups as this is very early in its research and development. Most of the suggestions in this work are in their conceptual stage and it may need sometime before an awareness of such products and services can be established. The Family Life Cycle developed as part of the Family System identifies variation to process usage during different periods of the life cycle. The Phases 2, 3 and 4 are found to be the stages where families are busier – a period of twenty to twenty five years. The focus of this analysis is busy families and the second interest group is aged people. Busy families include families with children under the age of 18 years with both parents engaged in paid work, and employed single parent families. Statistical data on population are used to arrive at estimated values for a target market. Data from three developed countries, US, UK and Australia, are used for this purpose. The value in euros is calculated using an estimated expenditure of ¿100 per family per annum. The data used for these estimations are based on the UK census 2004 and the Australia census 2006 (Walling, 2005; Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2007a; Office for National Statistics, 2008). Information from the Bureau of Labor Statistics is used for the data on families and aging population in US (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2008b). The total population of busy families and aging families is forecasted to be gradually increasing for the next few decades. These data are used for estimating the market values for Years 2012, 2020 and 2030. The population of various segments in the chosen three countries and the target market value estimates are given in Table 7.1. Discussions provided in Section 2.3.3 clearly indicates the market penetration prob-


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Table 7.1: Target Market Segment for Automation Country

Family Group

Australia Australia Subtotal US

Subtotal Total

Dual Income Single parent Busy Families Dual Income Single Parent Busy Families Dual Income Single Parent Busy Families Busy Families

US UK Australia Total

Aging Aging Aging Aging

Subtotal UK

Families Families Families Families

Population Millions 1.34 0.82 2.16 46.8 10 56.8 5.0 1.9 6.9 66

Value (Current) Billions (Euros)

60 12.3 2.6 74.9

Value (Year 2030) Billions (Euros)

0.216

5.7

0.69 6.6

9.7

7.49

7.8

lems. Previous studies expose that Home Users are price sensitive and pragmatic in their purchase decisions. Even for technologies such as Internet the market growth has been slow. This is evident from the statistical data that the global market of Internet users increased from 117 million in Year 1997 to 1542 million in Year 2008 (International Telecommunications Union, 2009). These figures indicate that the market is not saturated even after a decade.

7.2

Potential Products and Services The application of REFUSS carried out in Section 5.5.3 has identified a number

of processes to be automated for Home Users following a plausible future lifestyle. The processes identified belong to the categories of Soft Process, Hybrid Process and Hard Process. The Soft Processes belong to five subsystems of the Family System: Finance, Meals, Housing and Transport, Education, and Health. The Hybrid Processes belong to the subsystems of Meals, and Housing and Transport. Three different product sets are identified to automate the three different types of processes that are Soft Process, Hybrid Process and Hard Process. Software based products


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can be used for automating Soft Processes, while Hard Processes can be mechanised. Hybrid Processes are more complex as these require intelligence as well as handling of physical resources. Robotic devices are suggested to automate Hybrid Processes. Envisaged products and services automating any of the identified processes deliver one or more of the following generic benefits to the Home User, thus meeting the market needs identified in the Section 1.1.2. • Time saving • Labour saving • Improvement in efficiency and effectiveness • Reduction of complexity and errors • Improvement of quality

7.2.1

Software Based Products and Services “In the 21st century and beyond, software will provide the sensing, communica-

tions, and decision support capabilities that enable people to become aware, understand, and collaborate in addressing the problems and opportunities they will have from local and personal levels to global levels” (Boehm, 2008). As Boehm has stated, software has a major role to play in personal lives of individuals. Home life is an area where the full potential of software is not delivered as there is a lack of initiative and in-depth research. The automated Soft Processes identified within the five subsystems can be categorised into three product areas. These product areas and the system facilities satisfying the desired automation are discussed in the following sections. Potential Software Products 1. Electronic Document Management System (EDMS) One of the services required from eHome as described in Section 6.1.1 is collection and storage of electronic data. This is an important requirement from the following reasons. (a) Gradual shift from hard copy to electronic delivery by businesses and service providers


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(b) Mobility of Families (c) Need for ubiquitous access (d) Intuitive Web Access (e) Further information processing (f) Secure storage from theft, and damage This study proposes an Electronic Document Management System (EDMS) to provide this service. This system has to automatically initiate communication with External Entities and the Home Users to retrieve documents that are not transferred by the Originator. This may involve communication with other web servers, database servers, and user devices. This system consists of one or more databases to store the contents and attributes of documents received from External Entities and created by the Home User. The documents need to be categorised, and organised into logical groups for later easy access. This system needs to provide secure storage of documents and easy access to the document itself and all related information for a long period of time, ideally decades. The document details may include document title, type of document, Originator details, content summary, and access date. This system provides quick and easy global access to document details or contents by powerful search facilities over the Internet using a single point of access. As more and more documents are delivered in electronic format this becomes a necessary service rather than an option. 2. Information Management System (IMS) Electronically received data are difficult to process without tools. Efficient information management is essential in improving problem awareness and empowering the Home User to be pro-active. This can assist in reducing some of the problems listed in Section 1.1.2, such as financial and diet related health issues. The role of the Information Management System is to facilitate effective information services providing timely and reliable information on request to family members and related agencies, as detailed in Subsection 6.1.2. Automation of data extraction and information integration processing are essential requirement of the system to generate statistical reports and other intelligible information. This system is required to provide service in real-time and periodically in a timely manner.


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3. Ubiquitous Intelligent System (UIS) for Home Life Management The purpose of this system is to provide knowledge and intelligence services for managing different aspects of home life, as detailed in the Subsections 6.1.3 and 6.1.4. This potential system consists of modules providing services for managing: • Finance • Diet • Health • Education • Housing and transport The software, user permitted and configured appropriately, should facilitate generation of applicable knowledge that can assist the Home User in performing actions so that related problems are avoided. The system should generate intelligence that empowers the Home User in decision making, or as user permitted, safeguarding the user from possible incorrect actions. For example, this could be a control signal disapproving the purchase of a high calorie food item from a school tuck shop by a child or disapproving purchases on a credit card as the expenses have gone above the budget. 4. Ubiquitous Intelligent System (UIS) for Personal Life Management The purpose of this system is to provide information, knowledge, and intelligence services for managing important aspects of personal life such as time, money and health. The potential system needs to improve problem awareness and enhance decision making. Software Service: Home Information Service Provider (HISP) The above facilities can be delivered as a product component or they can be delivered as part of a service. The Software as a Service (SaaS) concept allows the user to use a software product without fully acquiring it and generally the application functionality is delivered over a network from the application maintained by a service provider (Anerousis & Mohindra, 2006). The purpose of the HISP is to enable the Home Users to enjoy the benefits of one or more software products without engaging in system administrator duties of maintaining


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the necessary hardware and software. The HISP facilitates the Home User with the functionalities of chosen Software Products as listed above without the need for procuring and maintaining the Product. The HISP service should be economical for the users to afford. The services other than the specific Product functionality to be provided by an envisaged HISP are listed below. • Create unique identification The HISP creates a unique identification for the first time user of the software service and makes it available for verification purposes. • Initial system setup and configuration This involves data entry and configuration of parameters where customisation is required. • System maintenance The HISP procures and maintains the required hardware and equipment for the smooth functioning of the software. This also involves software and hardware upgrade and re-configuration if required. • Data storage and back up The HISP provides data storage and back up facility for all the data associated with the software service used by a user. • Secure global accessibility The Home Users are provided secure accessibility to designated software services globally.

7.2.2

Electromechanical Devices The discussion provided here is only a brief overview of currently available elec-

tromechanical devices and potential improvements. This is an area where technology has contributed a lot in making many tasks mechanised, if not fully automated, and continuous improvement is taking place in many appliances as a result of ongoing research. Technology can contribute further, especially in the kitchen area; a brief discussion below provides insights to some alternatives.


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It is an interesting fact that most of the electromechanical devices for home use are for tasks around the kitchen. The range of equipment under the category of food processor is available as separate units which can be categorised as semi-automatic as it is necessary to physically adjust these appliances with fixtures to suit the task. Cleaning of these appliances is a manual task requiring removal of parts. These equipment do not form part of a kitchen work bench and thus need to be brought in for use and packed away after use, making it inconvenient and tedious. Even though there are many appliances available for grinding, mixing, and cutting these appliances are not part of a standard kitchen workbench. Cleaning parts of used appliances and setting up these appliances for specific use are still difficult and not user friendly. This is an area requiring further attention. The appliance design can be improved to provide Total Process Support (TPS) rather than providing functional capability. For example a Wok used for heating, the stirring of contents to distribute heat uniformly is part of the process. Schematically a process starts with certain preconditions, takes inputs, completes processing, produces output and satisfies the post condition. Necessary testing facilities for checking the pre and post conditions should be part of the appliance. Sensors to check pre and post conditions and use of these sensor signals to control operation of the appliance can improve the ease of use and efficiency. Preconditions could be: • Cleanliness • Presence and state of material to be processed For example a stove need not be allowed to switch on without an item on the stove top. Another example is a wet grinding that requires a certain amount of liquid in the material to grind. • Temperature. Postconditions could be: • Power off on completion of processing An example is a stove that can switch off automatically when the item finishes cooking. • Change of mode An oven that turns into a warm mode on completion of cooking.


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Due to the limited scope of this study, electromechanical devices are not further discussed.

7.2.3

Robotic Devices “Robots have long been imagined as mechanical workers, helping us in our daily

life.”(Kemp, Edsinger, & Torres-Jara, 2007). This study suggests use of robotics in automating Hybrid Processes that involve both intellectual and physical work, for example preparing items for cooking following a recipe. The Hybrid Processes identified for automation using the application of REFUSS in section 5.5.3 include: • Cooking • House cleaning • Prepare items for cooking • Clean utensils and kitchen There has been enough attention to automate tasks around kitchen and house cleaning. The main attention towards house cleaning has been on floor cleaning. There are other areas such as wash basin, dining table, kitchen work bench, and stove area that require regular cleaning. As mentioned in Section 7.2.2, automation of mundane tasks around the kitchen has gained enough attention, but still remains problematic. If one moves backward in time the majority of tasks around the kitchen used to be done by a person with few basic tools such as knives for cutting and a stone for grinding. Based on this experience and the ineffectiveness of task based devices, an arm that can operate like a human arm seems a solution without considering practical issues. Therefore this study introduces a novel approach to address the existing problems by the application of robotics which is the scientific method of combining the physical and intellectual capability of humans. Two devices are suggested here where robotics can be applied with further research and development. The proposed devices are: • Kitchen Hand • Cleaner Arm


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Kitchen Hand A robotic arm functioning as a Kitchen Hand can automate many tasks such as cutting, peeling vegetables, stirring contents in a vessel while being cooked, cleaning kitchen work bench and stove area, and moving contents from a cookware to a tableware. A Kitchen Hand becomes a desirable and attractive product for both busy families and aged people. The envisaged Kitchen Hand can fold itself and stay inside an in flush shelf while not in use. The Kitchen Hand should have the functionality to: • Identify objects • Execute pre-defined procedures • Use tools • Handle kitchen utensils • Handle rigid and non-rigid objects • Perceive the context • Adapt a pre-defined procedure to suit the current context. The non-functional requirements for the Kitchen Hand are: • Simplicity in operational instructions • Response to short instructions • Simplicity in correction • Safe and smooth movements • Fault tolerance • Low operational noise. The Kitchen Hand should be built with adequate protection to withstand oil, steam and water. Another option is for the Kitchen Hand to move alongside the kitchen workbench, increasing the service area. A Kitchen Hand that can operate on task based


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instructions, as opposed to engagement of a person continuously operating it, is the requirement for home. Current robotic devices operating in open environments such as earth moving, or moving of heavy materials, are continuously controlled by an operator. The envisaged Kitchen Hand is multi-functional, versatile, flexible in operations, customisable with software modifications and easy to use. An always tidied up kitchen without great trouble can be the dream of every housekeeper. Robotic Cleaner Arm Cleaning can be categorised as a Hard Process if the area to be cleaned is free of obstacles. The cleaning involved at home can be classified as a Hybrid Process as the cleaning requires correct use of tools, application of cleaning materials, sensing of area to be cleaned and detection of the presence of human or other objects. There are many areas in the house and furniture/equipment that requires regular cleaning or tidying up. Examples are kitchen sink, bathroom wash basin, dining table, and shower area; these require regular cleaning that is time consuming and tedious. The application of robotics to design and build a robotic arm that does the job of a cleaner could be of great use. While not in use the arm could fold itself and rest in a shelf built in flush, without interfering with the regular use of the facility. The functional requirements of a Cleaner Arm are: • Identify the cleaning area • Move within the cleaning area • Move obstructing items • Handle cleaning accessories and tools • Apply cleaning agents • Remove dirt and clean. The non-functional requirement of a cleaner arm are: • Operational simplicity • Safe, smooth and simple movement


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• Low operational noise. Generally, cleaning requires handling of chemicals and these chemicals are made stronger to ease the removal of grease and dirt. People don’t find repetitive use of such chemicals a healthy choice even though cleaning is inevitable. A robotic device is insensitive to chemicals or heat and allows the most effective use of cleaning methods. For example, steam cleaning or use of hot water may produce better results and be less damaging to the environment compared to chemicals with an antibacterial effect. A robotic device can easily handle steam or very hot water. A Cleaner Arm that can easily identify the surface to be cleaned, and shift other objects present in the way, has a great potential not only at home.

7.2.4

Performance Requirements

• Low Cost Affordability is the most important factor for successful market penetration as householders are very price sensitive. This applies to both the cost of procurement and the running costs, including cost of maintenance and upgrading. • Ease of Use The other important factor is operational efficiency and ease of use. In case of software based products and services, manual data entry should be minimum and the interface for data entry should allow flexibility in medium, device type and physical location. Installation and initial configuration also should be easy. Home Users are people with little time to devote for learning new tools and technologies as well as configuring and maintaining new systems. • Dependability Products or services intended for home use require very high reliability, up to 99.99 percent. This is to ensure almost nil down time as it is very difficult and inconvenient for Home Users to organise maintenance and arrange alternatives. For example a Home User may depend on the system to schedule a payment and produce timely reminder; failure of this can be problematic. Another essential requirement for software based products allowing networking and external access is the security of electronic data belonging to Home Users from unauthorised access. As the system becomes


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the repository for all family related documents, including highly confidential information, this is an important requirement. Products and services should ensure safety of users and materials, including electronic data storage, from damage or accidental corruption. • Flexibility in choice of functionality and ruggedness The flexibility in choice should enable easy add-remove features that allow selection of functionalities suitable to the temporal variations pertaining to changes in life cycle stages and responsibilities. For software products a global perspective is also required to meet the needs of families moving interstate or overseas due to various reasons. Products having hardware and mechanical parts need to be rugged, and requiring low maintenance. • Evident tangible and intangible benefits Making the tangible and intangible benefits explicitly visible can be the best way of promoting the product or service. This could be saving in time, or cutting expenses by effective management. Providing details of such benefits in dollar values may easily convince the users. Market penetration is a real hurdle when new products or services are introduced into the Home User market, as the potential users may not understand the full potential of the new item.

7.3

Technology Needs and Current Technology Limitations for Development of Software Based Products This section discusses the technology required and the limitations of currently

available technology to transform the product ideas discussed in Section 7.2 from concepts to practical products and services.

7.3.1

Technology Needs Generally, users of office automation products are involved in selection and speci-

fication of data sets as well as interpretation of results. The Home User expects applicable results without further modifications and interpretations requiring a higher level autonomy, compared to tools used in office automation. Delivery of software products and services with


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suitable dependability and trouble free operation, without engaging in additional user involvement, introduces the need for advanced technology solutions. The challenges involved are discussed in the following sections. Data Sources vary from rigidly structured and formatted bills and documents from businesses to unstructured data produced from SMS text messages, email and voice mail. There is need for a commonly agreed classification of Data Sources, metadata design, communication of metadata in association with the Data Source, and system for collection, storage, data extraction, and information integration. This may involve application of various computational intelligence methods such as data mining, case based rules, decision trees, logical rules or various other methods. Even though these techniques are used in office automation, there are some major differences between the Home User and other users. Electronic Document Management This requires collection, classification, organisation and storage of Data Sources. There are various technical issues to deal with in both cases of Originator initiated transfer and the system initiated retrieval of these Data Sources. These issues are discussed below. There needs to be a simple method for classification of Data Sources and definition of required metadata that can be used for identifying a received Data Source. The system should be designed for storage of Data Source linked to associated metadata, allowing easy search/retrieval. On the sending side there are many different operating systems, application software, servers and networking software. How can the system enable smooth connection from heterogeneous applications and systems? Another aspect is the integrity of data transferred. Can the system allow large amounts of junk data? How can the system block unwanted material being received and stored? The receiver initiated data retrieval generates another set of technical issues. The Originator requires the system in place to authorise the receiver access. How easily can this additional facility be integrated to existing systems? In this case also the need to establish connectivity with heterogeneous systems exists. The retrieval of a particular Data Source from a large database or data warehouse requires formulation of queries. There are Data Sources generated specifically for a particular Home User, or for a particular item, or more generic ones. Examples for the first type of Data Sources are utility bills, or pay slips and the second set example is a user manual for an equipment. A school newsletter is an example


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of the third set of Data Source. A Home User is identified using unique identification by each of the Originators. The system needs to automatically use the right identity to access the Originator’s server and send request using correct query string. How can the system generate correct query string if user specific or item specific Data Source identification is used? In case the system uses a reference list for formulating queries how can such list be maintained? Considering the large number of Originators and Data Sources originating from heterogeneous systems, the meta data for identification and classification of Data Sources need to be designed, generated and maintained. These should be compatible, adaptable, and available for use by all the Originators. This requires maintenance of a meta data library for use by all the Originators. Here the Originators belong to different businesses and business domains. The system requires Webserver for allowing access to the documents over the internet, Electronic Document Management Server (EDMS) that provides access to the Databases and file system storing the Data Sources (Volarevic, Strasberger, & Pacelat, 2000). Data Extraction The second proposed product is Information Management System which requires extraction of data, facilitating further processing. The system should be able to extract the required data from a received Data Source or directly from an Originator’s System. For example it may be required to extract the bill reference number, payment due date and amount due from a bill for scheduling the payment. Another example is the extraction of item details from a purchase receipt. Based on the format used the Data Sources could be classified into the following categories. • structured Data residing in databases are one source of data and these databases are created by different applications. It is not always possible to merge data originating from different databases. It is required to formulate specific queries to extract needed data and create new databases using the extracted data with required formatting before further processing can be done. Structured Query Language (SQL) queries needs to


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be formulated and the results need to be verified before use. Automation in query formulation and data extraction is the requirement. The Nutritional Information (NI) and Ingredient List (IL) of processed food is an example of such data. Already generated reports created from large databases also form part of this. Inter-operability issues exist for integration of reports produced from different databases. • semi-structured These Data Sources are generated by integrating structured data from databases with additional unstructured data. Forms, bills, invoices are examples. Many of these Data Sources fall into the category of FA type documents from the Home User’s perspective, thus requiring data extraction. • unstructured The third prominent category of Data Sources are unstructured documents. These fall mainly into the categories of FA, FI, FR and FIR type documents still requiring various levels of data extraction. The extracted data are required to identify and categorise the Data Sources, or for further processing. For example it is required to extract policy details, policy expiry date, and premium details from an insurance policy. There is a challenge in extracting sensible, useful, and timely information that would be required in real time. Information Integration There are different levels of information integration required. The Information Management System, facilitating information services, requires organisation and structuring of data into Relational Databases (RDB). For example payment details extracted from bills, invoices, insurance contracts and other Data Sources should be included into appropriate tables in a database. This requires automatic query processing, but structured queries function only with data in the correct format. The UIS needs to extract meaning by concatenating extracted data from different sources following rules and algorithms. The integrated data has to be available for further use. An example is the generation of a grocery purchase list for a week from formulated Meals schedule, recipes used and existing stock.


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Pre-defined databases, queries and algorithms could achieve automation. There are many issues in data extraction that need to be addressed before substantial automation can be achieved with minimum manual data entry by the Home User. The other aspect is the rate at which new sources of data appear and the requirement for system upgrades.

7.3.2

Limitations of Current Technology There are technological barriers to achieve the full functionality as perceived.

There is an absence of Home Information infrastructure, system, and standards. • Lack of Availability of Electronic Data The generally followed mode of delivery of the above mentioned Data Sources is in hard copies and there is a gradual shift in electronic delivery. • Format Constraints The mostly used electronic format for formal communication is PDF files, other than email messages. Other formats used are comma separated values (csv) files, text files and document files produced using various word processor applications. • Data Extraction from Unstructured Data Sources These include insurance contracts, service contracts, equipment user manuals and installation guides. Currently there are no existing technology to extract meaningful data from unstructured Data Sources to the level of required accuracy. Problems with Current Data Extraction Methods The main requirement is 99 to 99.9 per cent accuracy and if this level of accuracy cannot be achieved then the users need to verify and correct extracted data. This will be a major deviation from having an automated system. The forms are structured from the point of view of the Originator but they are unstructured from the perspective of the receiver. To be effective, great attention needs to be given to the extracted data quality – accuracy, timeliness, consistency, and completeness (Gingrande, 2004). On semi-structured forms the same data fields are located in different locations from form to form. These include bills, invoices, purchase orders, medical claims, forms


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filled in by hand, forms filled in electronically, and web based forms. For example, there are utility bills such as telephone, electricity, and council rates. These bills vary in their structure and formatting. The most generally used format for electronic delivery of Data Sources are PDF files. The currently used method of data extraction from PDF files is not fully automatic and it can achieve an accuracy per-document recognition of 60–70 percent. A PDF parser needs to convert the PDF document to a text document with the formatting information systematically included in the converted text document. The layout of forms varies. One methodology used in the case of forms processing is using templates that consistently match up with each and every data field using an ICR/OCR engine (Kwok & Nguyen, 2006). This needs a database of templates and manual selection of template to match a particular form while it is processed. The current approach used is Document Image Understanding (DIU) where techniques such as blob analysis, edge detection, multi-line character segmentation and long-line detection are used to locate form objects and data fields. Once the data fields are located, they can be sent to an ICR/OCR engine to be recognized and validated. There has been research on transforming printed documents into structured XML documents (Ishitani, 2003). The document image for analysis is created using OCR. The document structure is extracted using layout analysis following an XY-cut approach and represented using a Document Object Modelling (DOM) tree. The document structure is transformed into a target XML document in accordance with specific Document Type Definition (DTD). The resulting XML documents are very limited in their semantic structuring, as that originally was lacking in the source document. An average of 95.2 percent correct document element tagging has been achieved following this method. The DTDs can be used to define the structure, but they cannot be used for defining the content types (Pashtan, 2005). The methods described above are mainly used by businesses and government agencies. With the current technology a trained professional is required to conduct the forms processing and integrate information for further processing. The main difference between these agencies and Home Users is that these agencies have additional resources such as skilled staff, middleware applications and capital. The available methods are short of full automation, required accuracy and reliability to be applied in home information management services. The discussions above indicate that the current technology has limitations to


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achieve the level of automation required for automating information management at home. Further research and development is required to improve the current methods or devise new methods to achieve the required accuracy and level of automation. Problems with Information Integration The challenge for data integration is the heterogeneity of Data Sources and the difficulty in understanding the semantic relationships. There are emerging tools developed for use in enterprises, known as Enterprise Information Integration (EII), but these tools are in its infancy (Halevy et al., 2005). There are two methodologies that could be followed for the processing of extracted data: ETL– extract, transform and load or II- integrate information. The ETL methodology follows building data warehouses using the extracted data, whereas using the II methodology, the extracted data get processed on the fly, providing the required information but avoiding the necessity for further database construction (Halevy et al., 2005). Both methods use integrated queries that are broken down and run over disparate Data Sources and the results get processed to produce integrated information. These methods still need user involvement to produce accurate results. Compared to the large volume of data existing in business and government agencies, the home information management involves heterogeneous Data Sources and Originator systems, and large temporal variation in generation of data. The extracted data are heterogenous in structure and in the format of elements. The main aspects are semantic heterogeneity of data originating from various Originators and the problems in understanding semantic relationships, for example data extracted from a number of Bills or invoices, or details of processed food obtained from different manufacturers’ database. Techniques need to be developed to integrate the extracted data for storage and further processing.

7.4

Technology Needs and Limitations For Development of Robotic Devices The proposed Kitchen Hand can deliver desired functionality by the application

of a number of advanced technologies. Humans learn the tasks around kitchen by several years of observation and progressive learning and most often the complexity involved is


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overlooked.

7.4.1

Technology Needs An autonomously operating Kitchen Hand is a complex device combining many

technical aspects of manipulation, perception, adaptability, safety and ability to learn. These aspects are discussed in the following sections. Manipulation Sophisticated manipulation tasks are required for the Kitchen Hand to operate effectively. Preparation of items for cooking involves very complicated tasks of using tools and objects in very complex ways. These include opening lids, removing items from containers, peeling skin, separating edible and non-edible parts, washing, slicing, and mixing. Performing these tasks requires basic manipulative tasks of lifting, grasping, turning, rotating, moving, lowering, and pressing. In addition, the manipulation involves handling of tools, rigid objects like vessels, and non-rigid objects like eggs. Sophisticated manipulation requires perception to understand the context and objects, and learning to adapt to variations. Technology needs and limitations of current technology in these areas are briefly discussed below. Perception A robot can operate effectively if it can perceive the objects to handle and the surrounding environment, thus having contextual knowledge. The envisaged Kitchen Hand needs to deal with two sets of objects. The first set of objects is items that can be well defined in their shape, colour, and other appearance. For example regularly used vessels, utensils, and spice containers belong to this category. The other set is items that are not well defined in their shape and size. Examples of such objects are raw food items. There is a certain amount of variations to these objects’ colour, size, shape and physical state. For example a raw egg needs soft handling, whereas a boiled egg can be peeled applying certain pressure. Operation of a Kitchen Hand requires significant effort in the case of poor perception. Perception is improved through vision and tactile sensing and these are briefly discussed here. • Vision


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The primary need for achieving functionality is correct identification of objects, identification of grasp points to hold objects, orientation for placing objects correctly, and detection of task relevant features of the objects such as the sharp edge of a knife. • Tactile Sensing The Kitchen Hand needs to handle objects with contact, so tactile sensing is a critical modality for manipulation. This is important for the hand to explore the object in contact without altering it or causing damage. Tactile sensing complements vision to perceive as well as to apply the right pressure in handling objects. For example softer objects such as fruits, or wine glass should be handled with less pressure applied. Humans use tactile sensing for identifying texture, to perceive the object state, good or bad, or right mixing. • Odour Sensing Other than vision and touch, odour sensing is used to detect spoilage of food by humans. In many cases this is an essential requirement as the vision or tactile sensing may not differentiate good and spoiled items correctly. Adaptability There are variations in object shape, colour, placement and positioning. There can be dynamic variation to the kitchen work bench area without the involvement of the robot and this requires adaptation. A busy Home User needs to get a task done without the user being present for saving time: for example the preparation of items for cooking following a given recipe and using a set of raw items. Autonomous operation with minimal Home User involvement requires the ability to adapt to changes in objects, tools to use and context. A mass produced Kitchen Hand on installation into a custom built kitchen needs to be oriented to the specific kitchen set up. How easily this could be done? Do we need to retrofit kitchen items with sensor embedded RFID tags for enabling identification? Taking the example of moving contents from a cookware to a tableware, a human can choose the correct sized tableware without measuring, calculating the volumes and comparing these.


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Training There are unique and customised methods individuals use in their kitchen in handling jobs. Again considering the example of moving contents from a cookware to a tableware, there could be a built association rule established from past experience. How easily can a Kitchen Hand be trained to get accustomed to a kitchen? This involves building knowledge about positioning of items, use of tools and appliances, and accessing storage locations such as drawers, and cupboards. Safety A Kitchen Hand needs to work alongside humans which requires safety in motion to avoid chances of injury to humans by exertion of force by unexpected physical contact. This requires compliance, force control and sensitive actuation for movement. Many of these technology applications are required in the case of the Cleaner Arm in a limited way.

7.4.2

Adaptive Robotic Controller A kitchen can be classified as a semi-structured environment compared to the

well defined structured environment of factory and the unstructured environment of open field. There are a number of fixed artifacts around kitchen work bench and a certain unpredictability from human movement and movement of other objects. The methods of carrying out tasks and tools used are also variable to an extent. The ability to sense, learn, react quickly and adapt is essential to achieve satisfactory autonomous operation. It requires Computational Intelligence (CI) to design algorithms for the adaptive autonomous operation of robot that can exhibit quick reaction and consistent behaviour. A human arm has 70,000 nerve fibres connected to the spinal cord (Adee, 2009). In addition, humans use other sensory input such as vision, smell, and hearing to react. Here the tradeoff is to get quick enough reaction and adaptation that can safely and satisfactorily provide the required operation. There are a number of methods and techniques currently in active research for algorithm design. Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), Genetic Algorithms (GA), Genetic Programming (GP), and Fuzzy logic are the prominent software based methods (Wang, 2002). Evolvable Hardware (EHW) where self reconfigurable integrated circuits may provide


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faster operation and Field Programmable Gate Array is a multi-input multi-output digital device that may be cheaper and more promising.

7.4.3

Task Specific Algorithms The requirement is coarse grained instructions to operate the Kitchen Hand. The

tasks carried out around the kitchen bench are very complex in manipulative movements and handling of tools and objects. It is required to break these tasks into appropriate granularity to map them against operational instructions. A Home User may be comfortable with coarse grained instructions such as move an object from one location to another, but not finer grained instructions of lift, turn, move specific distance, lower and place. It is required to identify the basic tasks, break them down to finer tasks, and then formulate algorithms. These algorithms need to be appropriately converted to coordinated mechanical movements of various joints and other parts.

7.4.4

Current Technology Limitations for Developing Kitchen Hand Current technology is limited to achieve fully autonomous Kitchen Hand that can

automate tasks related to the preparation of items for cooking and cleaning the kitchen work bench. Required modalities of sophisticated manipulation, perception and adaptability are yet to be developed for reliable operation in an affordable robotic device. Robots have been successful in controlled environments performing few tasks using a few known objects and humans are kept away from the vicinity for safety reasons. This requires limited sensor-input. The controlled environments are characterised by known or simplified objects and uncluttered environments. Present day robots can perform tasks in human environments slowly and a human operator has to take significant effort to achieve sophisticated manipulation tasks (Kemp et al., 2007). Tasks considered as trivial by humans requires executions of large sets of code. Again input has to be collected and processed from a number of sensors such as position, force, pressure other than task related sensors (Kargov et al., 2006). Software also plays a major role in achieving the required results and standards; reusable modules are yet to be formed (Brugali & Reggiani, 2005). Vision based on a small number of 3-D models of known objects, detecting locations of grasp points, are work in progress (Sian, Sakaguchi, Yokoi, Kawai, & Mauyana, 2006; Saxena, Driemeyer, Kearns, Osondu, & Ng, 2006). The scalability of these techniques to


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handle a large number of manipulable objects is yet to be demonstrated. Currently, object identification using machine vision distinguish objects in a contrasting background; there is a limitation to identify objects having little contrast to their surroundings. It is found that the current technology of tactile sensing based on Force Sensing Resistors (FSR) is insufficient to meet the requirements for robots manipulation in human environments (Kemp et al., 2007). Current vision algorithms are based on machine learning and the ability to deal with uncertainty, or unobservable properties of objects using inference is still lacking. These are essential factors for autonomous operation in a reliable way. Odour detectors are used with human assessors, and the current technology for autonomous e-nose systems is not ready to be incorporated as part of a Kitchen Hand due to its bulkiness and cost (Powers, 2004). The kitchen workbench area may look simple and limited in area, but it is quite dynamic and complex for the robot to perceive. Any undefined object unexpected within this area can appear as any Home User misplaces an item. Perception is associated with vision and tactile sensing (Australian Robotics and Automation Association, 2008). These are areas of ongoing research.

7.5

Implementation Plan The previous sections discuss the technology needs for developing the proposed

products and also reveal the limitations of current technology in related areas. This study has developed a plan commencing now and extending till Year 2020 for the incremental development of the envisaged products and services based on software and robotics; this includes corresponding technology investment in related areas. The required technology areas are of significant research activity due to application in fields other than HA. It is required to re-assess and update the plan every few years. Commencing with information management services, the UIS system is envisaged to progressively provide decision support and knowledge based reasoning. The following sections describe the details of the implementation plan to transform the concepts into realistic products. The steps include: • Design and development using existing technology • Research and investment in new technology


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• Development and implementation of policies • Development and implementation of standards • Other commercial aspects. Each of the above steps are further discussed in the following sections.

7.5.1

Design and development using existing technology There is existing technology to achieve partial functionalities for the envisaged

software based products and robotic devices (Exact Dynamics, 2008). Development Plan for Software Based Products and Services A progressive and incremental approach can be used in developing and marketing the proposed products, where the amount of automation and functionalities improves from version to version. Modular approach can be used in building the products and services. This naturally follows from the modular approach used in the identification of automation needs using the Family System reference model and 7 subsystems. The modules to be built can be prioritised from the amount of data available and data extraction possibilities. As per these criteria, for example, out of the seven subsystems Finance may be of higher priority. It is quite feasible to have a prototype of the system providing partial information management services by Year 2012, as shown in Figure 7.1. The main bottle neck is in automation of Data extraction from Data Sources, and the conversion and formatting for the generation of Data required for further processing. A reachable target in this area is less than 70 percent as per the discussions provided in Section 7.3. Considering this gap is initially filled by manual data entry options, progress can be made in development of a prototype. This remains an achievable goal from the following factors. 1. There is existing technology to achieve partial functionality for the Document Management (Volarevic et al., 2000). 2. Current technology for Relational Database Management Systems (RDBMS) is efficient in organising structured data, generating information by collating data and triggering events based on set conditions. These provide efficient search facilities as well, enabling accessibility to information, the limitation being the requirement of


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using structured queries. Technology is well developed to provide online access to databases over the Internet. 3. Ubiquitous access to information and facility to communicate reminder messages is quite technically feasible. Wearable computing devices are unceasingly available to the users typically attached to the body or clothes (Narayanaswami, 2006). The suitability of functionalities available with present day cell phone, as an example of a wearable computing device is provided in Section 6.2.3. Other promising contributors include wireless technology, precise localisation of objects, and web services (Preuveneers & Berbers, 2007). 4. The currently used POST in retail centers has communication facility and upgrading the existing software to include authentication, and transfer of purchase receipt and item details, is technically feasible with current ICT. The main bottleneck in promoting the system into practical use is data availability and accessibility issues. These issues are discussed in Section 7.5.3. Development of Robotic Devices The proposed Robotic Devices with partial functionality can be developed using the current technology. This is in view of existing commercially available robotic devices such as Manus ARM that can perform specific task with human control (Exact Dynamics, 2008) in a limited way. Another encouraging development is prosthetic arm of DARPA that will soon be clinically tried on humans (Adee, 2009). As this prosthetic arm is neurally controlled by signals from the brain sent through the nervous system it is a break through in the integration of mechatronics and nueroscience. It is possible to commence with simplified perception by building ability to identify well-defined objects with RFID or bar code. The kitchen work bench can be cluttered to an extend and here human intervention can assist till technology improves. In addition kitchen work bench can be classified as a semi-controlled environment due to the fact that lighting conditions, positioning of many objects such as appliances, and containers is relatively permanent. Restricted movement of the Kitchen Hand also makes it less of an uncontrolled environment. Initial endeavor may be development of a Kitchen Hand that can perform well defined tasks under supervision and human control. The preliminary effort can be achieving

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Chapter 7: Innovative Product Ideas and Investment Opportunities 191

Figure 7.1: Roadmap Matrix for Development of Software based Products


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automation of specific tasks such as moving items off the stove.

7.5.2

Research and investment in new technology Technology investments are required for both software based products and robotic

devices to achieve the full perceived functionality. Technology Investment for Software based Products There is a requirement for further research into methods of data extraction and data integration producing relevant and meaningful information retrieval. The current search methods using structured queries formulated from strings of specific terms need to be improved in automating the query formulation and analysing the results. The main bottle neck in achieving the full functionality is data extraction. Out of this, the data extraction from unstructured data such as emails and from other text documents remains a major puzzle to be solved. It is unlikely that this can be completely resolved to achieve the full automation by Year 2020. Therefore, a compromised procedure may be followed to obtain maximum results within limited resources and time. Three approaches can be used in gradually reducing the data entry requirements. • Structuring of Data Sources by Originators Primarily, XML (eXtensible Markup Language) based standards with semantic meaning can be developed in association with the Originators of the Data Sources who are the External Entities. This can only be a gradual process due to the amount of changes required with the systems of Originators. Organisation and establishment of publicly available templates can also accelerate the standardisation and use. • Converting Data Sources into structured documents XML being a standard for defining structured documents of text-based data, retrieved documents can be transformed into structured XML format that provides semantic meaning for further access. • Two part delivery of Data Source Referring to the four different types of Data Sources listed in Section 6.1.1 data extraction and further processing are required mainly for the For Action or FA type


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Data Sources. The data to be extracted from the total content of any particular Data Source can be 15 percent or less. For example the data relating to school events and dates required for further scheduling purpose can be less than 5 percent of the total content of a school newsletter. Working with the External Entities a consensus on delivering the required data in a mutually agreed format, in addition to the Data Source can speed up the process. In the case of semi-structured Data Sources this could be easy as the Data Source is formulated by merging structured data from database. These approaches could be more efficient than developing methods to extract data from different types of Data Sources formatted following the current practices. Following these approaches this study anticipates achieving 90–95 per cent of automation in data extraction by 2020. Commencing with a first prototype with a data availability of 30 per cent in Year 2012 and with gradual improvements in data extraction and data availability, by Year 2020 the implementation is anticipated to be completed. The progressions that could be achieved in various years are shown in Figure 7.1. Technology Investment for Robotic devices Gradual improvements in perception, and motion control could achieve a Kitchen Hand that could prepare the raw items such as meat and vegetables and transfer them to the vessel for cooking and clean the work bench. There are many areas that need further improvement. These include: • Manipulation This requires improvements in tactile sensing, sensor fusion and sensor-actuator system. • Perception Improvements in machine vision is critical for achieving perception. • Adaptability It is required to improve machine learning for achieving adaptability to dynamic variations in human environments.

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194 Chapter 7: Innovative Product Ideas and Investment Opportunities

Figure 7.2: Roadmap Matrix for Implementation of Robotic Devices


195

Initial focus can be on automating simple manipulation tasks such as grasping, holding, and placing objects in the right position by partially autonomous Kitchen Hand. Design of appropriate tools to handle objects can reduce the complexity of manipulation. Considering the high amount of input processing required for sensor data and multiple output to be generated for controlling coordinated movement, hardware based techniques such as Evolutionary Hardware (EHW), Micro electromechanical sensors (MEMS) are areas to explore to achieve higher efficiency at reduced processing power. Findings of more effective tactile sensing techniques using indium tin oxide-quartz crystal microbalance (ITO-QCM) rectifying some of the problems with existing tactile sensors are also encouraging (Patel, Huebner, Saredy, & Stadelmaier, 2008).

7.5.3

Development and implementation of policies Availability and accessibility of necessary data is an important requirement for

the development of the ideas on software based products and services. It is highly dependent on the Originators to make required data available and accessible electronically. The Originators are the External Entities, as detailed in section 4.2. Availability and Accessibility Currently electronic data are available from very few External Entities. Policies governing data availability are yet to be formulated. National or international policies could guide businesses and organisations to provide electronic data for use with proposed software products. Such policies can govern what is to be made available in case of a transaction as well as the time of availability. Data can be made available as required by the Home User or at specific time. Delivery of data is also a policy issue. There should be guidelines on the responsibility of maintaining the quality, content and timeliness of data delivery. Formulation of international policies can be time consuming and difficult. National policies could be used for guidance on international practices. Accessibility of available electronic data also needs policy guidelines. There are issues of security, authenticity, and protection from misuse or unauthorised modification of the data. There is a need for guidelines on accessibility within a family or household also. The family members should have authorised access to the stored data as agreed between the Originator of data and the family. Different members of family may have different access


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modes and also various data items may have diverse accessibility rules such as read, modify or reproduce. Such policies are detrimental in achieving success of all the envisaged software products.

7.5.4

Development and implementation of standards The major problem with electronic data is the heterogeneity in format and source.

There are hardly any standards in formats and layouts that could be used. The existing DTD does not support semantic referencing to document content. Standardization in this area can reduce the amount of work required in data extraction. Emergence of XML solves the problem of syntax incompatibility, but diverse semantics creates problems in understanding the meaning. W3C’s Resource Description Format (RDF) and RDF Schema for resource description can be used for creating standards for metadata design (Pashtan, 2005). Standards are required to guide the amount of information to be transferred as part of a transaction. Standardization in formats can reduce the incompatibility across Data Sources. There could be some consensus on data formats and availability of international standards to follow.

7.6

Roadmap Validation It is important to note that the roadmap presented here is an initial technology

roadmap that can initiate further discussions; the two product areas can be separated and detailed roadmap for each of the products could be developed refining the roadmap provided here. Discussions provided in Section 2.6.2 on the assessment of roadmap indicates the absence of objective tests or reference standards. Nevertheless the success of the roadmapping process can be evaluated by 1. Knowledge created during the roadmapping process The success of the roadmapping process is evident from the knowledge created as part of this study by the development of the Family System reference model and the UbiHoPe conceptual framework. The new method, of REFUSS for future user requirement elicitation is another contribution to the field. The roadmap created by


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the roadmapping process provides knowledge about future market, products that may meet the identified market needs, technology gaps, and technology investment needs. 2. Roadmap produced The roadmap should provide a path to reach the objective of futuristic vision identified at the commencement. The effectiveness of this can be verified by the success of the various projects implementing the roadmap. Such verification is a longitudinal method that can be conducted in the course of time. The completeness of the roadmap produced having the market, product, technology gaps and technology investment needs is an immediate measure. Based on this, the roadmap produced is complete with cohesive components. 3. Roadmap Quality As per studies conducted by (Kostoff & Schaller, 2001), the critical factors that can be used for assessing the quality of roadmap include: (a) Awareness of the evolving technology by relating the retrospective, present and prospective components The roadmapping process in this study has commenced with a literature review focussing on the development of technology for the past four decades. The technology gaps for the product development are identified by studying the current technology available and the technology needs of the future products. (b) Criteria A roadmapping process starts with a well-defined criteria; thus meeting the criteria is a measure of quality. This study has commenced with the aim of identifying realistic market needs and identifying product ideas to meet such market needs. The market needs are identified by understanding the current user needs from the theoretically founded Family System reference model developed as part of this study; the future user needs that make up the market needs are derived using the formal approach of REFUSS developed as part of this work. The product ideas are developed systematically to meet the market needs identified, thus meeting the criteria of the roadmap development.


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(c) Relevance to Future actions The criteria met by the roadmap should provide recommendation for future actions. By identifying the market and product needs for the market, the roadmap has developed an initial action plan for future technology investment in different areas for developing the products. The Family System reference model, scenarios, and the REFUSS can be used for further refinement and revision of the roadmap to maintain currency and relevancy.

7.7

Chapter Summary This chapter has presented a concise roadmap depicting estimation of a target

market and number of product ideas. The market estimation provided is indicative of a substantial market for affordable products and services. Subsequently, an analysis of technology needs for the software based products and proposed robotic devices are provided. The author has identified technology gaps in various areas and has exposed technology investment needs. The two roadmap matrices included in this chapter illustrates possible development plan for converting the conceptual products into practical applications. The chapter summarises previous chapters with the presentation of the roadmap matrices seeding further research.

Chapter 8

Conclusion This chapter summarises the contributions made by this research work. A discussion on the strengths of the contributions is made; as well, extensions to this work are presented here.

8.1

Contributions This research has developed an Initial Technology Roadmap for Home Automa-

tion (ITRHA) that identifies a target market, ideas on potential products, and technology investment opportunities. The ITRHA can be used as a reference document for further analysis and developments in the HA industry. The ITRHA consists of the Family System reference model, the UbiHoPe conceptual framework, the eHome conceptual model, the roadmap implementation plan and the graphical presentation of the roadmap matrices. This research has developed a new method named Requirement Elicitation of Future User by Systems Scenario (REFUSS) to identify market needs by systematically relating user and process specific information with a futuristic vision formulated using scenario technique. The development of ITRHA is done by applying a method integrating technology roadmapping and scenario technique that is yet to be in wide practice. This study has developed the concept of Family life cycle to expose the temporal variations in Family responsibilities and this knowledge is used to uniquely identify different market segments. The Family System reference model developed as part of this study rectifies the lack of systemic approach in the HA industry, in addition to meeting the first research 199

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objective given in Section 1.3. This model establishes a theoretical foundation to the developments in the HA industry. The Family System identifies major Family Processes and seven subsystems to manage these processes. This reference model is used to expose the interaction of families with External Entities and the importance of information management tasks involved in daily functioning of the family. This study has defined three types of processes, Soft Process, Hard Process and Hybrid Process, and these definitions are used to group the processes for identifying potential automation products/services. The development of the method REFUSS detailed in Chapter 5 completes the second objective of this research. REFUSS establishes a formal method in identifying automation needs by relating process knowledge obtained from the analysis of the Family System with the future user characteristics of Home Users following specific lifestyle trend. This method integrates the system modelling with the scenario technique within the framework of technology roadmapping. The newly developed method of REFUSS is applied to derive the user requirements thus meeting the third research objective of identifying the market needs. The eHome conceptual model developed as part of this study reveals functional requirements, hardware and software components of a potential system automating identified Soft Processes. The UbiHoPe framework identifies the system components, networking and data communication needs for achieving ubiquitous information needs of Home Users. The author has revealed the importance of home information management; this study also has revealed the absence of home information infrastructure and supporting systems. Based on the analysis conducted using the Family System and process automation needs established using the REFUSS, this study has proposed potential robotic devices of Kitchen Hand and Cleaner Arm as well as software based products of Electronic Document Management System, Information Management System, and Ubiquitous Intelligence System. Technology needs for these products and services are investigated and suggestions on research and development investments are provided. The research objectives stated in Section 1.3 are completed by the identification of the above mentioned products and the technology investment needs for those products. The target market estimations are indicative of a large potential market that can be tapped into with appropriate initiative. The roadmap produced as part of this work provides a new perspective and a systemic approach. This work could initiate formulation of consensus on industry requirements and assist decision makers in formulating technology


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investment strategies.

8.2

Validity This research work has followed a qualitative research method integrating technol-

ogy roadmapping and scenarios. The reliability and validity of qualitative research methods are discussed in Section 3.1. Applicable criteria that can be used for validating this research finding are discussed in Section 3.6 based on the research method followed in this study. The three specific measures of validity of this study are met as discussed below. 1. Objectivity Logically coherent and well reasoned results meeting the research objectives as discussed in the Section 8.1 are proof of this validity. 2. Theoretical Validity The theoretical validity is established from the procedures followed in the study. This study has used process modelling techniques following structured modelling to develop the system model. This is a theoretically founded and proven method used in information system modelling. The author has extended the symbol set to suit this study. Further analysis of the system is carried out using object-oriented modelling by the application of business process modelling. Application of these modelling techniques ensures the required theoretical validity for the system model developed. This study has integrated scenarios with roadmapping and for the purpose of scenario development this work has followed scenario technique which is a theoretically established method for creation of scenarios with causality. Therefore, the REFUSS method developed as part this study is theoretically sound. Further development of the conceptual framework of UbiHope and the derivation of products are based on the detailed analysis conduced using the process modelling techniques, thus ensuring validity and correctness. 3. Validity of Roadmap. The roadmap developed as part of this work can be evaluated using the assessment criteria given in Section 3.6. These include consideration of technology evolution,


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use of global data and suggestions for future actions in the roadmap. The literature review conducted in Chapter 2 and Chapter 7 is used to study the past and present technology developments in the field. This information is used to derive the technology gaps and technology investment needs provided in Chapter 7. Therefore the roadmap is valid from this aspect. Results of previous studies conducted on lifestyle related problems and technology use in domestic environment, and statistical data are collected mainly from three countries geographically distributed in three continents. This satisfies the second criterion for validity of the roadmap. Thirdly, the roadmap contains propositions of innovative products and technology investment needs for the development of these products. This provides recommendation for further action, thus meeting the third criterion.

8.3

Strengths of Contributions This research has pioneered to develop a roadmap for the HA Industry. This study

has been motivated by the lack of products with desirable features and many project failures by investing in ill-conceived ideas following technology-based visions. A new perspective on HA is developed by developing a reference model named Family System that is used for analysing family processes following a systemic approach as opposed to the bottom up approach followed so far. This study is unique in its initiative to analyse the lifestyle related problems and reveal the essential need for technology assistance in managing home and personal life. This study has identified the lack of applicable formal methods for eliciting future user requirements as the underlying problem for the current situation for the HA industry. As a solution to these problems this work has developed the REFUSS, a theoretically founded simple and applicable method that can be used by the HA industry to identify Home User requirements and thus identify market needs. The main advantage of this method is its identification of the large number of external factors that influence the Home User lifestyle, thus enabling systematic re-assessment of future market needs. The roadmapping process followed in this study is unique as it integrates roadmapping with scenario technique and this technique is still in its conceptual state.


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The HA industry lacks a systemic approach and top-down view; this is rectified by the Family System reference model developed in this work. This produces a new perspective for the HA industry, which has been following a bottom up approach engaging in task level automation. The identification of External Entities and the communication between Family and External Entities reveals the importance of home information management as well as the influence of these communications on Families’ activities.

8.4

Extensions The ITRHA developed as part of this work contains an implementation plan for

the development of proposed robotic devices and software based products. The next stage in a roadmapping exercise is the initiative to deploy the roadmap by the formulation of working groups and clear strategies. Assisting Home Users to manage their everyday life more efficiently, improving the overall quality of life, can indirectly reduce government spending in different areas such as health and education. It is worth estimating the tangible benefits and thus using that information for attracting resources for further research along the formulated vision. Proceeding with the implementation partially or fully requires further work in research and development. This work initiates further research in a number of areas related to robotics and information management. The proposed development of products can also be pursued using existing technology to achieve partial functionality. An industry-academic collaborative effort can be successful in driving industry roadmapping. This can be beneficial for the University researchers as they can focus on more relevant research problems and align their research priorities with long-term industry requirements.

Appendix A

Communication Between Family and Education Service Provider A typical snap shot of generally occurring communication between an Education Service Provider and Parents referred to in Chapter 4 is shown in the Figure A.1 given below. The list of interactions is not exhaustive but indicative of essential exchange of information that occurs in case of most common providers.

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Appendix A: Communication Between Family and Education Service Provider

External Entity Comm. Received By Family Primary or News Letter Secondary School Progress Report Tuition Fee Invoice Special Events Information Parent/Teacher Interview Appointment Schedule Appointment Confirmation Stationary list

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Appendix B

Abbreviations CI Computational Intelligence DFD Data Flow Diagram DPA Demanding Process Attribute DTD Document Type Definition EDMS Electronic Document Management System EHW Evolvable Hardware XML eXtensible Markup Language FS Family System GPS Global Positioning System HVAC Heating Ventilation Air Conditioning HAN Home Area Network HA Home Automation HISP Home Information Service Provider ICT Information and Communication Technology IL Ingredient List 206

Appendix B: Abbreviations

ITRHA Initial Technology Roadmap for Home Automation ITRS International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors LAN Local Area Network MEMS Micro Electromechanical Sensors NI Nutritional Information RFID Radio Frequency Identification RDB Relational Database REFUSS Requirement Elicitation of Future Users by Systems Scenario RDF Resource Description Format SOAP Simple Object Access Protocol SQL Structured Query Language UIS Ubiquitous Intelligence System UML Unified Modelling Language UDDI Universal Description, Discovery, and Integration VHN Versatile Home Network VoD Video on Demand WSDL Web Services Description Language WAN Wide Area Network WAP Wireless Application Protocol

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Appendix C

Definitions The definitions distributed in various chapters are reproduced here.

C.1

Definitions From Chapter 4

Definition C.31 Family is referred to as the traditional structured society consisting of one or two parents and their children. Definition C.32 Home User is any person who owns and or occupies a home and uses the products and services of the HA industry. Definition C.33 An External Entity is any functional unit that provides and or receives any form of service or goods to the family and is not part of the Family. Definition C.34 Data flow is any input received or any output sent by the Family System, subsystems or processes within Family System that can be represented in electronic form. Definition C.35 Resource flow is any material input received or any output sent by the Family System, subsystems or processes within Family System that cannot be represented, stored or transmitted in electronic form via a computer network. Definition C.36 Data Store is any input, output or intermediate results that are stored in electronic form. Definition C.37 Resource Store is any material stock that cannot be stored in electronic form. 208

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Definition C.38 Soft Process is any process that has only Data flows as input and output. Definition C.39 Hard Process is any process that has only Resource flows as input and output. Definition C.40 Hybrid Process is any process that has both Data flows and Resource flows as input and or output. Definition C.41 A Family Process is a set of related activities carried out by family member/s providing input to produce defined output and this can be done regularly or occasionally. Definition C.42 Managing Finance includes all activities carried out by family members, individually or in group, that are money related. Definition C.43 Planning and Preparing Meals includes all activities carried out by family member/s individually or in group that are related to food. Definition C.44 Family Health Care includes all activities carried out by family member/s individually or in group to ensure good health for each of the family members. Definition C.45 Supporting Formal Education includes all activities undertaken by family members to support formal school and or tertiary education of offsprings. Definition C.46 Household Maintenance includes all activities carried out by family member/s to maintain a house and vehicle/s, if any, that are functioning well to provide a safe and comfortable environment and transport for the family. Definition C.47 Engaging In Occupation includes all activities carried out by family member/s to identify, obtain, prosper and maintain occupation with remuneration. Definition C.48 Recreation and Social life Maintenance includes all activities undertaken by family members to organise social activities, and maintain social life.

C.2


Definition C.49 Process Attribute is a variable that partially describes the nature of process from the user’s perspective.

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Definition C.50 Process Operational Requirement is a variable that reveals the effort required from the user for completion of the process producing quality output. Definition C.51 User Characteristic is a variable that partially describes the state of a user. Definition C.52 Environmental Factor is any social, economic, political, legal, or technological factors that influence the lifestyle of the user. Definition C.53 User Constraint is a variable that indicates the limitation of a user due to specific User Characteristics attributable to the lifestyle followed. Definition C.54 Demanding Process Attribute is any Process Attribute of specific value that maps to Process Operational Requirement/s that are User Constraint/s of users with specific User Characteristics. This implies that the same rule applies for all the users having the same User Characteristics. Definition C.55 Complex Process: A process operation becomes complex to the user if it involves one or more of the tasks of accumulation of input data over a period of time, evaluation and selection of input, analysis and decision making for processing or cumbersome and lengthy processing. Definition C.56 Time consuming Process A process operation becomes time consuming for the user if it involves 15 minutes or more of interaction, or attention required from the user such that the user is withheld from fully engaging in any other activity. Definition C.57 Routine Process A process operation becomes a routine activity for the user if it requires repetition at the minimum of daily, weekly, or fortnightly basis.

C.3


Definition C.58 Data consists of one or more elements having specific values, from a range of values, required as process input or produced as process output and can be represented electronically. Definition C.59 Data Source is any electronically representable material containing Data. Definition C.60 Originator is any External Entity, Home User, other person, system, or application that creates or owns Data or a Data Source.

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