The NR scenario ranges from 120 to 900 with a best estimate of 340 ..... Elzen, H.J. van der Woerd, J. de Greef, Ozone depletion and skin cancer incidence: an.
UHVHDUFKIRU PDQDQGHQYLURQPHQW
5,-.6,167,7887922592/.6*(=21'+(,'(10,/,(8 1$7,21$/,167,787(2)38%/,&+($/7+$1'7+( (19,5210(17
5,90UHSRUW 7HFKQLFDO5HSRUWRQ6WUDWRVSKHULF2]RQH 'HSOHWLRQLQ(XURSHDQLQWHJUDWHGHFRQRPLF DQGHQYLURQPHQWDODVVHVVPHQW *-09HOGHUV+6ODSHU ':3HDUFH$+RZDUWK
0D\
This Report has been prepared by RIVM, EFTEC, NTUA and IIASA in association with TME and TNO under contract with the Environment Directorate-General of the European Commission.
5,9032%R[%$%LOWKRYHQWHOHSKRQHWHOHID[
5,90UHSRUW
3DJHRI
$EVWUDFW 7KH HFRQRPLF DVVHVVPHQW RI SULRULWLHV IRU D (XURSHDQ HQYLURQPHQWDO SROLF\ SODQ IRFXVHV RQ WZHOYH LGHQWLILHG 3URPLQHQW (XURSHDQ (QYLURQPHQWDO 3UREOHPV VXFK DV FOLPDWH FKDQJH FKHPLFDO ULVNV DQG ELRGLYHUVLW\ 7KH VWXG\FRPPLVVLRQHGE\WKH(XURSHDQ&RPPLVVLRQ'*(QYLURQPHQW WRD(XURSHDQFRQVRUWLXPOHGE\5,90 SURYLGHV D EDVLV IRU SULRULW\ VHWWLQJ IRU (XURSHDQ HQYLURQPHQWDO SROLF\ SODQQLQJ LQ VXSSRUW RI WKH VL[WK (QYLURQPHQWDO$FWLRQ3URJUDPPHDVIROORZXSRIWKHFXUUHQWILIWK(QYLURQPHQWDO$FWLRQ3ODQFDOOHGµ7RZDUGV 6XVWDLQDELOLW\¶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
5,90UHSRUW
3DJHRI
7echnical Report on Stratospheric Ozone Depletion
7KLV5HSRUWKDVEHHQSUHSDUHGE\5,90()7(&178$DQG,,$6$LQDVVRFLDWLRQZLWK70(DQG712XQGHU FRQWUDFWZLWKWKH(QYLURQPHQW'LUHFWRUDWH*HQHUDORIWKH(XURSHDQ&RPPLVVLRQ7KLVUHSRUWLVRQHRIDVHULHV VXSSRUWLQJWKHPDLQUHSRUW(XURSHDQ(QYLURQPHQWDO3ULRULWLHVDQ,QWHJUDWHG(FRQRPLFDQG(QYLURQPHQWDO $VVHVVPHQW 5HSRUWVLQWKLVVHULHVKDYHEHHQVXEMHFWWROLPLWHGSHHUUHYLHZ
7KHUHSRUWFRQVLVWVRIWKUHHSDUWV 6HFWLRQ (QYLURQPHQWDODVVHVVPHQW 3UHSDUHGE\*-09HOGHUV5,90 +6ODSHU5,90 6HFWLRQ %HQHILWDVVHVVPHQW 3UHSDUHGE\':3HDUFH$+RZDUWK()7(& 6HFWLRQ 3ROLF\DVVHVVPHQW 3UHSDUHGE\':3HDUFH$+RZDUWK()7(& 5HIHUHQFHV $OOUHIHUHQFHVPDGHLQWKHVHFWLRQVRQEHQHILWDQGSROLF\DVVHVVPHQWKDYHEHHQEURXJKWWRJHWKHULQWKH7HFKQLFDO 5HSRUW RQ %HQHILW $VVHVVPHQW 0HWKRGRORJ\ 7KH UHIHUHQFH PDGH LQ WKH VHFWLRQ RQ HQYLURQPHQWDO DVVHVVPHQW IROORZVDWWKHHQGRIVHFWLRQ
7KH ILQGLQJV FRQFOXVLRQV UHFRPPHQGDWLRQV DQG YLHZV H[SUHVVHG LQ WKLV UHSRUW UHSUHVHQW WKRVH RI WKH DXWKRUV DQGGRQRWQHFHVVDULO\FRLQFLGHZLWKWKRVHRIWKH(XURSHDQ&RPPLVVLRQVHUYLFHV
5,90UHSRUW
3DJHRI
&RQWHQWV
(19,5210(17$/$66(660(17
,QWURGXFWLRQ 6KRUWEDFNJURXQGRIVWUDWRVSKHULFR]RQHGHSOHWLRQ '36,5FKDLQ 3ROLF\DJUHHPHQWVDQGFRPSOLDQFH
0HWKRG ([FHVVVNLQFDQFHULQFLGHQFH (TXLYDOHQWHIIHFWLYHVWUDWRVSKHULFFKORULQH
5HVXOWV ([FHVVVNLQFDQFHULQFLGHQFH (TXLYDOHQW(IIHFWLYH6WUDWRVSKHULF&KORULQH ,QWHUDFWLRQZLWKRWKHUHQYLURQPHQWDOLVVXHV
&RQFOXVLRQV
5()(5(1&(6
%(1(),7$66(660(17 ,QWURGXFWLRQ 3XEOLFRSLQLRQ ([SHUWRSLQLRQ
6FHQDULREHQHILWHVWLPDWLRQ
32/,&W LQ@
6LQFHWKH:73YDOXHRILVIRUWKH\HDUWKLVYDOXHPXVWEHGHFUHDVHGIRUWKH\HDUV EXWLQFUHDVHGWKHUHDIWHUDVIROORZV :73
LQDQ\\HDUW!
[ W
LQ\HDUVW GLYLGHGE\ W
>W LQ@ >W LQ@
6WHS(VWLPDWHQXPEHURIGHDWKVDQG1)&VLQDOO\HDUVIRUERWKVFHQDULRV 1RUHVWULFWLRQVVFHQDULRLVWKHDQQXDOLQFUHDVHLQWKHQXPEHURIFDQFHUV ZKHWKHU IDWDO RU QRW 7KXVGHDWKVLQDQ\\HDUW! DUH[ WZKHUHLVWKHQXPEHURIGHDWKVLQLH [ 1)&VLQDQ\\HDUW! DUH[ WZKHUHDUH1)&VLQLH[ &RSHQKDJHQVFHQDULRLVWKHDQQXDOLQFUHDVHLQGHDWKVDQG1)&VLQDQ\\HDU'HDWKV DQG1)&VDUHIRXQGIROORZLQJWKHVDPHPHWKRGRORJ\JLYHQDERYH 6WHS&DOFXODWHDYRLGHGFDQFHUVLQDOO\HDUV $YRLGHG FDQFHUV LQ DOO \HDUV DUH IRXQG E\ VXEWUDFWLQJ WKH ³&RSHQKDJHQ´ VFHQDULR IURP WKH ³1R UHVWULFWLRQV´VFHQDULR 6WHS0RQHWLVHDYRLGHGFDQFHUV 0XOWLSO\WKHGHDWKVDQG1)&VLQDOO\HDUVE\WKHFRUUHVSRQGLQJ926/DQG:73UHVSHFWLYHO\ 6WHS3UHVHQWYDOXHRIPRQHWLVHGDYRLGHGFDQFHUV 7KHSUHVHQWYDOXHRIWKHPRQHWLVHGDYRLGHGFDQFHUVEDVH\HDULVHVWLPDWHGXVLQJDGLVFRXQWUDWH7KH UHVXOWLVJLYHQLQ7DEOH$QRWKHUPHDQVRISUHVHQWLQJWKHUHVXOWVLVLQWHUPVRIDQQXLWLHVLHWKHDQQXDOVXPV ZKLFKZKHQGLVFRXQWHGZRXOGUHVXOWLQWKHSUHVHQWYDOXHVVKRZQLQ7DEOH$QQXLWLHVDUHDOVRUHSRUWHGLQ 7DEOH
(VWLPDWHGE\WDNLQJWKHLUHVWLPDWHGPLOOLRQH[WUDFDVHVDQGDQXQGLVFRXQWHGGHIHQVLYHH[SHQGLWXUHRIELOOLRQ
5,90UHSRUW
7DEOH 3UHVHQWYDOXHDQGDQQXLWLVHGYDOXHRIGDPDJHWR1:(XURSHEDVH 'LVFRXQWUDWH 'HDWKV 1)&V 3UHVHQW9DOXH [ [ $QQXLWLVHG9DOXH
3DJHRI
7RWDO [ [
2WKHU+HDOWK,PSDFWV (VWLPDWHVRIWKHLPSDFWRI89%RQFDWDUDFWVKDYHEHHQPDGHEXWDUHKLJKO\XQFHUWDLQ,WLVVXJJHVWHGWKDWHDFK GHFUHDVHLQR]RQHLVDVVRFLDWHGZLWKDLQFUHDVHLQFDWDUDFWV/RQJVWUHWKHWDO &KDQJHVLQLPPXQHIXQFWLRQDUHDOVRVXVSHFWHGEXWQRTXDQWLWDWLYHUHODWLRQVKLSDSSHDUVWRH[LVW7KHHIIHFWVRQ LQFUHDVLQJLQIHFWLRXVGLVHDVHLQFLGHQFH³FRXOGEHVLJQLILFDQW´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
5,90UHSRUW
3DJHRI
3ROLF\DVVHVVPHQW 3ROLF\3DFNDJH .H\LVVXHV 7KH(XURSHDQ8QLRQKDVPHWWKHWDUJHWVVRIDUUHTXLUHGXQGHUWKH0RQWUHDO3URWRFRO3KDVHRXWRI&)&VZDV DFKLHYHGRQH\HDUDKHDGRIWKH&RSHQKDJHQGHDGOLQHDVRSSRVHGWR WKH(8KDVDGRSWHGDSKDVH RXWGHDGOLQHRIIRU+&)&VUDWKHUWKDQWKHGDWHUHTXLUHGXQGHUWKH&RSHQKDJHQ$PHQGPHQWDQGWKH 9LHQQD$PHQGPHQWWDUJHWIRUPHWK\OEURPLGHRIDUHGXFWLRQZDVH[SHFWHGWREHPHWDWWKHEHJLQQLQJRI DVRSSRVHGWR,QWKHVHUHVSHFWVWKHQWKH(8³RYHUFRPSOLHV´ZLWKWKH0RQWUHDO3URWRFRO+RZHYHU DWOHDVWWKHILUVWRQHRIWKHIROORZLQJUHFRPPHQGHGDFWLRQVLVZRUWKFRQVLGHULQJIXUWKHU
(QVXUHDFFHOHUDWLRQRIWKH$UWLFOHFRXQWULHV 5HGXFHLOOHJDOLPSRUWVRI2'6 &RQWLQXHHIIRUWVIRURYHUFRPSOLDQFHRI0RQWUHDO3URWRFRO
5HFRPPHQGHGSROLF\LQLWLDWLYHV $FFHOHUDWHGFRPSOLDQFHE\$UWLFOHFRXQWULHV 6LQFHWKH(8LVW\SLFDOO\RYHUFRPSO\LQJZLWKWKH0RQWUHDO3URWRFRODQGLWV$PHQGPHQWVSUREDEO\WKHPDMRU WDVN DKHDG LV EULQJLQJ GHYHORSLQJ FRXQWULHV IXUWKHU ³RQ ERDUG´ DQG DFFHOHUDWLQJ WKHLU SKDVH RXW RI 2'6 7KH FXUUHQW SURFHGXUH IRU GHDOLQJ ZLWK WKH GHYHORSLQJ FRXQWULHV LV YLD WKH 0XOWLODWHUDO )XQG ZKLFK PHHWV WKH LQFUHPHQWDOFRVWVRI2'6VXEVWLWXWLRQRQDSURMHFWE\SURMHFWEDVLV'HVDLDQG0DWKXU VXJJHVWWKDWWKH SURMHFW DSSURDFK LV WRR VORZ DQG FRVWO\ IRU UHDOO\ DFFHOHUDWHG SURJUHVV 7KH\ UHFRPPHQG HVWDEOLVKLQJ FRPSHWLWLYHELGDXFWLRQVIRUWKH)XQG¶VJUDQWVWKDWGHYHORSLQJFRXQWULHVVHWILUPWDUJHWVIRU2'6DQGWKDWWKH\ DOVRFRQVLGHULQWURGXFLQJPDUNHWEDVHGLQVWUXPHQWVWRFRPSO\ZLWKWKH3URWRFRO %DVHG RQ $5& 7DEOH JLYHV WKH DYHUDJH FRVW SHU WRQQH RI &)&V WRWDO FRVW DQG TXDQWLW\ RI &)&V UHGXFHGIRUIXUWKHUFRPSOLDQFHZLWKWKH0RQWUHDO3URWRFROE\$UWLFOHFRXQWULHV 7DEOH 3UHVHQWYDOXH 'LVFRXQWUDWH
$YHUDJHFRVWDQGWRWDOFRVWIRU&)&DQG+DORQHPLVVLRQVUHGXFWLRQ $YHUDJHFRVW 7RWDOFRVW 4XDQWLW\ SHUWRQQH ELOOLRQ PLOOLRQWRQQHV SULFHV $ SULFHV % & %$
&)&V $HURVROV )RDPV 5HIULJHUDWLRQ 6ROYHQWV 6WHULODQWV +DORQV +&)&V 0HWK\O&KORURIRUP &DUERQ7HWUDFKORULGH 0HWK\O%URPLGH 7RWDO
EDVHGRQPDUJLQDOFRVWHVWLPDWH7KHH[FKDQJHUDWHLVDVVXPHGWREH
[
$5& VXJJHVWWKDWWKHDFFHOHUDWHGFRPSOLDQFHRI/'&VVKRXOGUHVXOWLQURXJKO\DPLOOLRQWRQQH UHGXFWLRQLQ2'67KHZHLJKWHGDYHUDJHFRVWSHUWRQQHRI2'3FDQEHIRXQGE\GLYLGLQJWKHWRWDOFRVWE\WRWDO
5,90UHSRUW
3DJHRI
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
5,90UHSRUW
7DEOH +HDOWKHIIHFW
,OOKHDOWKFDVHVDYRLGHGGXHWR0RQWUHDO3URWRFRO 7RWDOQXPEHURIFDVHVDYRLGHG WKRXVDQG 1RQPHODQRPDFDQFHU 0HODQRPDFDQFHU )DWDOFDQFHUV &DWDUDFWV
3DJHRI
1RRIFDVHVDYRLGHGSHU\HDU WKRXVDQG
7KH WRWDO ZRUOGZLGH 2'3 ZHLJKWHG UHGXFWLRQ LQ HPLVVLRQV RI R]RQH GHSOHWLQJ VXEVWDQFHV LV UHSRUWHG WR EH VRPH PLOOLRQ WRQQHV RYHU WKH SHULRG RU DSSUR[LPDWHO\ PLOOLRQ WRQQHV SHU DQQXP $ PRQHWDU\ YDOXDWLRQ RI WKH DYRLGHG KHDOWK FDVHV LV IRXQG E\ PXOWLSO\LQJ WKH QXPEHU RI FDVHV DYRLGHG E\ WKH UHOHYDQW:73WRDYRLGWKDWKHDOWKFDVH7KHXQLWYDOXHVIRUGDPDJHVWRKHDOWKDUHDVVXPHGWREH 7DEOH
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
:HLJKWVDUHUHODWLYHWRDWRQQHRI&)&
5,90UHSRUW
3DJHRI
&RQWLQXHGRYHUFRPSOLDQFHRI0RQWUHDO3URWRFRO $YDLODEOH GDWD SHUPLWV WKH HVWLPDWLRQ RI D %& UDWLR IRU WKH 0RQWUHDO 3URWRFRO WKH UHVXOWV FRQILUP WKDW WKH H[LVWLQJSROLF\LVHFRQRPLFDOO\HIILFLHQW $SSOLHG 5HVHDUFK &RQVXOWDQWV $5& HVWLPDWH WKH JOREDO FRVWV DQG EHQHILWV RI WKH 0RQWUHDO 3URWRFRO $5& JLYHPRQHWLVHGJOREDOEHQHILWVIRUUHGXFHGHFRQRPLFGDPDJHWRILVKHULHVDJULFXOWXUHDQGPDWHULDOV +RZHYHU WKH KHDOWK EHQHILWV DUH QRW JLYHQ D PRQHWDU\ YDOXH 7KXV ()7(& HVWLPDWHV WKH PRQHWDU\ YDOXH RI KHDOWKEHQHILWVE\WDNLQJWKH$5&HVWLPDWHVIRUQXPEHUVRIUHGXFHGVNLQFDQFHUVIDWDODQGQRQIDWDO PXOWLSOLHG E\WKHUHOHYDQW926/ PLOOLRQSULFH :73WRDYRLGDQRQIDWDOVNLQFDQFHU RU:73WR DYRLGFDWDUDFWV 7DEOHVHWVRXWWKHJOREDOEHQHILWVWKHFRVWVDQGQHWJOREDOFRVWV7KH%&UDWLRIRU WKH0RQWUHDO3URWRFROLVHVWLPDWHGDWZKLFKVXJJHVWVWKDWWKHH[LVWLQJPHDVXUHSDVVHVWKHEHQHILWFRVWWHVWDQG LVWKHUHIRUHHFRQRPLFDOO\HIILFLHQW1RWHWKDWDOOPRQHWDU\YDOXHVDUHJLYHQLQSUHVHQWYDOXHWHUPVWKHEDVHFDVH GLVFRXQWUDWHLV 7DEOH *OREDOEHQHILWV +HDOWK
*OREDOEHQHILWVDQGFRVWVSUHVHQWYDOXH GXHWRWKH0RQWUHDO3URWRFRO 5HGXFHGFDVHVRIGDPDJHWR
&DVHV WKRXVDQG
QRQPHODQRPDVNLQFDQFHUV 0HODQRPDVNLQFDQFHUV VNLQFDQFHUIDWDOLWLHV &DWDUDFWV ILVKHULHVDJULFXOWXUHPDWHULDOV
2WKHU
727$/ *OREDOFRVWV
FRVWVRIHOLPLQDWLQJWKHXVHRI2'6V *OREDOQHWSUHVHQWYDOXHRIEHQHILWV
%&UDWLRIRU0RQWUHDO3URWRFRO 6RXUFH
ELOOLRQ
()7(&DGDSWLRQRI$5&$SSOLHG5HVHDUFK&RQVXOWDQWV IRU(QYLURQPHQW&DQDGD
3ROLF\DVVHVVPHQW 7KLV VHFWLRQ EULQJV WRJHWKHU WKH LQIRUPDWLRQ SUHVHQWHG HDUOLHU WR IRUP DQ DVVHVVPHQW RI WKH VXJJHVWHG SROLFLHV DFFRUGLQJ WR WKH SROLF\ VHOHFWLRQ FULWHULD $OWKRXJK WKHUH LV QR IXUWKHU LQWHUQDO SROLF\ UHFRPPHQGDWLRQ GXH WR RYHUFRPSOLDQFH ZLWK 0RQWUHDO 3URWRFRO DQG $PHQGPHQWV ZH VXJJHVW WKDW WKHUH LV D QHHG WR DFFHOHUDWH FRPSOLDQFHZLWKWKH0RQWUHDO3URWRFROE\$UWLFOHFRXQWULHV
&DXVDOFULWHULRQ 7DEOHSUHVHQWVWKHGULYLQJIRUFHVEHKLQGWKHVWUDWRVSKHULFR]RQHGHSOHWLRQSUREOHPWKHXQGHUO\LQJFDXVHVDUH DOVRLGHQWLILHG 7DEOH ' ' ' ;
'ULYLQJIRUFHVDQGXQGHUO\LQJFDXVHVRIVWUDWRVSKHULFR]RQHGHSOHWLRQ
,QGXVWULDOSURGXFWLRQRI2'6V 8VHRI2'6VLQUHIULJHUDWRUVIRDPEORZLQJDHURVROVDQGVROYHQWV 6ORZGHYHORSPHQWDQGDGRSWLRQRIVXEVWLWXWHVIRU+&)& PDLQXQGHUO\LQJFDXVH0)
PDUNHWIDLOXUH,QW)
LQWHUYHQWLRQIDLOXUH,PS)
8QGHUO\LQJFDXVH 0) ,QW) ,PS) ; ;
LPSOHPHQWDWLRQIDLOXUH1RWHWKDWIRU'DQ G'WKH
PDLQFDXVHVDUHGXHWRJURZWKLQUHDOLQFRPH
:LWKLQ(8XQGHUO\LQJFDXVHVDUHDGGUHVVHGDVVKRZQE\RYHUFRPSOLDQFH5LVNVUHODWHWRWKHIDLOXUHRI/'&VWR PDNH WKH QHFHVVDU\ VXEVWLWXWLRQV ZKLFK LQ WXUQ GHSHQG RQ FRPSHQVDWLRQ IRU LQFUHPHQWDO FRVWV XQGHU WKH 0XOWLODWHUDO)XQG
5,90UHSRUW
3DJHRI
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
5,90UHSRUW
3DJHRI
$GPLQLVWUDWLYHFRPSOH[LW\ $GPLQLVWUDWLYH FRPSOH[LW\ LV ORZ GXH WR WKH H[LVWHQFH RI VSHFLDOO\ GHVLJQHG LQVWLWXWLRQV LH WKH 0XOWLODWHUDO )XQG 7KLV VXJJHVWV WKH VXFFHVV RI IXOO LPSOHPHQWDWLRQ LV KLJK 7KH VROH LVVXH LV WKH ³SROLWLFDO ZLOO´ RI FRQWULEXWLQJFRXQWULHV
(TXLW\FULWHULRQ 7KHDFFHOHUDWHGFRPSOLDQFHRI$UWLFOHFRXQWULHVZLWKWKH0RQWUHDO3URWRFROPHHWVWKHHTXLW\FULWHULRQVLQFH /'&VGRQRWSD\IRUWKHLQFUHPHQWDOFRVWVDQGKHQFHDUHQRZRUVHRIIWKDQWKH\ZRXOGEHZLWKRXWDFWLRQ$OVR WKH\JHWLPSURYHGKHDOWKDQGHFRV\VWHPEHQHILWVDQGSUREDEOHWUDQVIHURIWHFKQRORJ\EHQHILWV
-XULVGLFWLRQDOFULWHULRQ 6WUDWRVSKHULFR]RQHGHSOHWLRQLVDJOREDOLVVXHDQGKHQFH(8DFWLQJWRJHWKHUSURYLGHVWKHPRVWHIILFLHQWVROXWLRQ $FWLRQVKRXOGWKHUHIRUHFRQWLQXHWREHFHQWUDOLVHG$GGLWLRQDOJDLQVIURP&)&WUDGLQJ 0DFURHFRQRPLFHIIHFW 'HWDLOV RI DOO PDFURHFRQRPLF HIIHFWV DUH SUHVHQWHG LQ 7HFKQLFDO 5HSRUW RQ 6RFLR(FRQRPLF 7UHQGV 0DFUR (FRQRPLF,PSDFWVDQG&RVW,QWHUIDFH
$OO UHIHUHQFHV LQ WKH VHFWLRQV RQ EHQHILW DQG SROLF\ DVVHVVPHQW KDYH EHHQ EURXJKW WRJHWKHU LQ WKH 7HFKQLFDO 5HSRUWRQ%HQHILW$VVHVVPHQW0HWKRGRORJ\