ANRAM Australian National Risk Assessment Model (v1.0)
Overview • Context • What is ANRAM? • How it works • Outputs and application • Next steps
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Context The Safe System approach establishes an ethical position that no one should die or be seriously injured on the road • Human error may occur at any time
• Human tolerance to impact forces may be exceeded on many sections of the network
Context • Diminishing returns from black spot treatments – Only a third of fatal crashes occur at blackspots – Casualty crashes scattered on rural and local roads – Black spot treatments alone cannot reach road safety goals
• Emerging need for proactive approach to road safety – Crash risk assessment since the late 1980s (e.g. RSAs)
– Austroads >10 year investment in research – Confidence in identification of crash risk
• National Road Safety Strategy 2011-20 – specific mention
What is ANRAM?
Australian National Risk Assessment Model – a tool to identify the risk of severe crashes on road network – hybrid crash data and predictive modelling approach – an analysis tool to understand the sources of those risks – a tool to develop road improvement programs to address those risks
Uses of ANRAM • Identify fatal and serious injury crash risk across the network • Prioritise routes and road sections on the road network
• Target priority crash types, e.g. run-off-road • Develop safety treatments and programs • Measure safety benefits of asset management activities
• Measure progress towards Safe System infrastructure • Assess new road designs
• Transport planning studies
ANRAM structure (wit inputs) Coded road data
Risk assessment
Crash prediction
AADT
Crash validation
Improvement programs
ANRAM toolkit
Severe crash history
Outputs • ANRAM Risk Scores – heat maps of individual road user risk • ANRAM FSI crashes per section, per km total/collective risk, stable • Road attribute data can be mapped, filtered, used elsewhere • Toolkit – Analysis of severe crash risk – Development of treatment programs, BCRs
– Useful for funding business cases, ‘what-if’ analysis, policy development
Output example – crash risk analysis
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Output example – crash risk analysis
This shows distribution of risk to individual road users (risk score) on any given road segment. Note the risk spikes at 11 major intersections. Some road sections also have elevated risk due to high speed limits in presence of unsafe road features (e.g. curves, roadside hazards, frequent minor intersections).
Output example – crash risk analysis Example showing ANRAM estimated fatal and serious injury (FSI) crashes
Output example – crash risk analysis
This shows estimated intensity of FSI crashes per km of road. The benefit of ANRAM removes the random effects 13 of such crashes and the model estimate is responsive to treatments such as road improvements and speed limit changes.
Output example – program benefits • Transparency • Targeted road investment • Benefit/cost analysis
• Refinement of options
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Output example – program benefits ANRAM FSI crash reductions by section (5 yr)
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Examples of ANRAM applications • Evaluation of alternative road safety improvement strategies for a rural highway • Strategy and business case for wire rope barriers on rural motorways and highways • Estimate effects of speed limit increase/reduction • Safety benefits of asset management and freight improvement programs • Used in most state jurisdictions in Australia for road safety program development
Who should use ANRAM? • Road safety policy analysts and managers • Funders of road safety • Infrastructure program managers • Regional and local government engineers
Next steps • Implementation and training • ANRAM v2 – model refinements and online tool development
Use by jurisdictions
• International collaborations • Ongoing refinement
Feedback
• Linking safety and mobility Refinement
Linking safety and mobility • Not safety vs. mobility… the old paradigm
• How can we understand how improving safety at local level will improve safety at road network level? • How does a major change in infrastructure design standard affect both safety and mobility on the road network? • How can we account for effects of traffic redistribution and congestion changes on safety? • Or effect of safety improvements on traffic redistribution and congestion? • How can we invest our limited resources to maximize the benefit for both safety and mobility?
More information • ANRAM Hub – Fact sheets
– User guide – FAQs
www.arrb.com.au/anram
• Training
[email protected] [email protected]
