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1. REPORT DATE

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MAR 1986

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5a. CONTRACT NUMBER

Artificial Intelligence and Expert Systems

5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER

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5d. PROJECT NUMBER 5e. TASK NUMBER 5f. WORK UNIT NUMBER

7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES)

National Defense University Fort McNair, Washington, DC 20319 9. SPONSORING/MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES)

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Standard Form 298 (Rev. 8-98) Prescribed by ANSI Std Z39-18

National Defense University

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Department Of Defense Computer Institute

ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE and EXPERT SYSTEMS

P

mt

DISCLAIMER

T h i s r e s e a r c h r e p o r t r e p r e s e n t s the v i e w s of the a u t h o r and does n o t n e c e s s a r i l y r e f l e c t the o f f i c i a l o p i n i o n of t h e N a t i o n a l War C o l l e g e , the N a t i o n a l D e f e n s e U n i v e r s i t y , or t h e D e p a r t m e n t of D e f e n s e . T h i s d o c u m e n t is the p r o p e r t y of the U n i t e d S t a t e s and is n o t to be r e p r o d u c e d in w h o l e or part w i t h o u t of t h e Commandant, The N a t i o n a l War College, Fort M c N a i r , W a s h i n g t o n , DC 2 0 3 1 9 - 6 0 0 0

ii

Government permission Lesley J.

THE N A T I O N A L STRATEGIC

WAR C O L L E G E

STUDIES

TITLE:

Artificial Government

Intelligence Executives

AUTHOR:

Charles

Stevenson,

DATE:

February

A.

REPORT

ABSTRACT

and E x p e r t

Commander,

Systems

for

USN

1986

This r e p o r t c o n s i s t s of the syllabus, i n s t r u c t o r l e s s o n guides, viewgraphs, and b i b l i o g r a p h y for a c o u r s e of i n s t r u c t i o n t a u g h t by the a u t h o r as an e l e c t i v e at The N a t i o n a l D e f e n s e U n i v e r s i t y d u r i n g the s p r i n g s e m e s t e r of 1986. The c o u r s e is d e s i g n e d to a c q u a i n t s e n i o r level d e c i s i o n m a k e r s w i t h the r a p i d l y a d v a n c i n g field of a r t i f i c i a l i n t e l l i g e n c e and the first p r a c t i c a l use of this n e w t e c h n o l o g y c o m m o n l y k n o w as e x p e r t systems. The c o u r s e c o n s i s t s of lectures, d e m o n s t r a t i o n s , and g u e s t s p e a k e r s to give the s e n i o r e x e c u t i v e a feel for the s t a t e - o f - t h e - a r t in c o m p u t e r t e c h n o l o g y as well as to d e m o n s t r a t e p o t e n t i a l a p p l i c a t i o n s of this n e w tool. It also p r o v i d e s the s t u d e n t s an o p p o r t u n i t y to d e v e l o p a small e x p e r t s y s t e m u s i n g a "shell" or "tool" on a microcomputer.

iii

BIOGRAPHICAL

SKETCH

Commander Charles A. Stevenson, USN (BS, Electrical Engineering, University of Missouri, 1970; MS, Aeronautical Engineering, Naval P o s t g r a d u a t e School, 1979; AeE, A e r o n a u t i c a l Engineer, Naval Postgraduate School, 1979; MBA, National University, 1981), has b e e n i n t e r e s t e d in c o m p u t e r t e c h n o l o g y since w o r k i n g as a d e s i g n e n g i n e e r d e s i g n i n g M O S / L S I c i r c u i t s for Texas I n s t r u m e n t s in 1970. He is an avid c o m p u t e r h o b b i e s t who has r e a d e x t e n s i v e l y on the subject. He has also s e r v e d as an adjunct p r o f e s s o r of m a t h e m a t i c s and c o m p u t e r s c i e n c e at San Diego C o m m u n i t y C o l l e g e and Capital I n s t i t u t e of Technology, and holds an i n s t r u c t o r credential in m a t h e m a t i c s , computer and related technologies, and o t h e r d i s c i p l i n e s from the B o a r d of Governors, C a l i f o r n i a C o m m u n i t y Colleges. C o m m a n d e r S t e v e n s o n is an A s s o c i a t e M e m b e r of S I G M A XI and a g r a d u a t e of The N a t i o n a l War College, Class of 1986.

iv

CONTENTS

PAGE

SECTION DISCLAIMER ABSTRACT

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

BIOGRAPHICAL TABLE

i

,

2.

OF

COURSE

CONTENTS

SYLLABUS

INSTRUCTOR Sesslon Sesslon Sesslon Session Session Session Session Session Sesslon Session Session Session



4.

LIST

SKETCH

OF

LESSON

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . GUIDE

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

iii iv v I-i 2-1

I - Introduction to Artificial Intelligence II - K n o w l e d g e - b a s e d Expert Systems Overview IIIExisting Expert Systems and Tools IV - ** Navy Research Lab Tour ** V - Developing Expert Systems, An Overview VI - Building a Small Expert System, Part I MS DOS Gouge Student Handout VII - Building a Small Expert System, Part II VIII - Building A Small Expert System, Part III IX - ** TITAN Corporation Demonstration ** X - The Game and the Players XI - ** DARPA Presentation ** XII - Course Summary

VIEWGRAPHS

BIBLIOGRAPHY

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

ii

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

3-1

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

4-1

V

13.140-2/SH S P R I N G 86

COURSE

ARTIFICIAL

INTELLIGENCE

140

AND

EXPERT

for

GOVERNMENT

EXECUTIVES

SYLLABUS

SPRING

i-i

86

COMPUTER

SYSTEMS

Expert

Computer

Systems

Syllabus

INTRODUCTION: L a r g e l y due to i n n o v a t i o n in the p r i v a t e sector, the U n i t e d S t a t e s has e n j o y e d a g r e a t t e c h n o l o g i c a l advantage over o u r a l l i e s as well as p o t e n t i a l a d v e r s a r i e s since the end of W o r l d W a r II. In no field has this a d v a n t a g e b e e n m o r e e v i d e n t than in the f i e l d of c o m p u t e r technology. However, for a v a r i e t y of reasons, other industrialized nations are c h a l l e n g i n g the American leadership position narrowing our once seemingly i n s u r m o u n t a b l e lead. For example, t h r e e y e a r s ago the J a p a n e s e p u b l i c l y s t a t e d a n a t i o n a l goal to b e c o m e the w o r l d l e a d e r in computer technology by being the first to develop a new generation of c o m p u t e r s b a s e d on a r t i f i c i a l intelligence (AI) technology, commonly referred to as the fifth generation of computers. "Expert Systems" are c o n s i d e r e d the first p r a c t i c a l application of this new technology. What are Artificial I n t e l l i g e n c e and E x p e r t S y s t e m s ? H o w do t h e y d i f f e r from t o d a y ' s computers? Are there p o t e n t i a l m i l i t a r y a p p l i c a t i o n s of this new technology? W h a t are the U n i t e d States, J a p a n and o t h e r n a t i o n s doing in the field? Is it f e a s i b l e that the J a p a n e s e will d e v e l o p a fifth g e n e r a t i o n c o m p u t e r first? If so, w h a t effect, if any, will this b r e a k t h r o u g h have on the n a t i o n a l security i n t e r e s t of the U n i t e d States?

METHODOLOGY: This c o u r s e is d e s i g n e d to a c q u a i n t s e n i o r level d e c i s i o n m a k e r s w i t h the r a p i d l y a d v a n c i n g f i e l d of a r t i f i c i a l i n t e l l i g e n c e and the first p r a c t i c a l use of this n e w t e c h n o l o g y c o m m o n l y k n o w as E x p e r t Systems. As such, the c o u r s e m a k e s use of lectures, d e m o n s t r a t i o n s , and g u e s t s p e a k e r s to give the s e n i o r e x e c u t i v e a feel for the s t a t e - o f - t h e - a r t in c o m p u t e r t e c h n o l o g y as well as to d e m o n s t r a t e p o t e n t i a l applications for this new tool. In addition, the s t u d e n t will be g i v e n an o p p o r t u n i t y to 1 d e v e l o p a small e x p e r t s y s t e m u s i n g a "shell" or "tool" on an IBM c o m p a r a b l e s i x t e e n bit m i c r o c o m p u t e r . A r e s e a r c h p a p e r is not r e q u i r e d .

PREREQUISITES: There are no prerequisites for this course. However, a r u d i m e n t a r y c o m p u t e r b a c k g r o u n d i n c l u d i n g f a m i l i a r i t y w i t h e i t h e r the MS or PC DOS, or CP/M o p e r a t i n g s y s t e m w o u l d be helpful.

i. T o o l s are c o m p u t e r s o f t w a r e p a c k a g e s that s i m p l i f y the e f f o r t i n v o l v e d in b u i l d i n g a p p l i c a t i o n p r o g r a m s m u c h like a s p r e a d s h e e t s i m p l i f i e s c o m p u t e r i z i n g of n u m e r i c a l data.

1-2

Expert Computer Systems

COURSE

Syllabus

OBJECTIVES:

- to i n t r o d u c e the r a p i d l y developing field of p r a c t i c a l a r t i f i c i a l i n t e l l i g e n c e e m p h a s i z i n g the m o s t s u c c e s s f u l area of practical applications, knowledge based expert computer systems to define, clarify, and m a k e sense of the and r e a l i t i e s of p r a c t i c a l AI a p p l i c a t i o n s

claims,

promises,

- to a c q u i r e an u n d e r s t a n d i n g of and a p p r e c i a t i o n application, capabilities, and l i m i t a t i o n s of e x p e r t systems - to a c q u a i n t s e n i o r e x e c u t i v e s computer technology while giving future p o t e n t i a l a p p l i c a t i o n s - to e x p l o r e the d i f f i c u l t i e s of an e x p e r t s y s t e m - to e x p l o r e technology

current

and

for the computer

w i t h the s t a t e - o f - t h e - a r t in h i m / h e r an a p p r e c i a t i o n for

associated

future

with

applications

the

development

for

this

new

TEXT:

A. Paul H a r m o n and D a v i d King, Expert I n t e l l i g e n c e in Business, John W i l e y & Sons,

Systems, Artificial Inc, 1985

B. Tom Nagy, D i c k Gault, and M o n i c a Nagy, B u i l d i n g Expert System, A s h t o n - T a t e P u b l i s h i n g Group, 1985

Your

I N S T R U C T O R S : CDR Chuck STEVENSON, USN (51728) from the War C o l l e g e and LTC Steve KNODE, U S A F (51980) from the S u p p o r t S y s t e m s D e p a r t m e n t of the D e p a r t m e n t of D e f e n s e Institute.

1-3

First

National Decision Computer

Expert

Computer

Systems

Syllabus

COURSE

PHASE

SESSION

OUTLINE/ASSIGNMENTS

1 - INTRODUCTION/OVERVIEW

I - INTRODUCTION

TO A R T I F I C I A L

INTELLIGENCE

A.

Overview

B.

Demonstration

C.

C o m p u t e r s and C o m p u t e r T e c h n o l o g y i. W h y s h o u l d m a n a g e r s study c o m p u t e r s c i e n c e ? 2. W h a t is a c o m p u t e r ? 3. E v o l u t i o n of c o m p u t e r s / c o m p u t e r t e c h n o l o g y 4. W h e r e are we t o d a y and w h e r e are we g o i n g ?

D.

What i. 2. 3. 4.

E.

Current

F.

Technical

G.

Assignment i. H a r m o n - Forward, Preface, and C h a p t e r i, Chapter 2 2. See B i b l i o g r a p h y for s u p p l e m e n t a l r e a d i n g

SESSION A.

of c o u r s e = Meet

"Eliza"

is a r t i f i c i a l i n t e l l i g e n c e ? Definition The AI F a m i l y Tree H i s t o r y of AI W h y so m u c h h o o p - l a about AI? and F u t u r e A p p l i c a t i o n s Problems

II - K N O W L E D G E

BASED

of AI

Yet to be O v e r c o m e

EXPERT

SYSTEMS

OVERVIEW

B a s i c c o n c e p t s and t e c h n i q u e s i. Computer Aided Decision Making 2. Human problem solving 3. A r c h i t e c t u r e of E x p e r t S y s t e m s 4. P r o c e s s i n g Model 5. S t r a t e g i e s of R e p r e s e n t i n g K n o w l e d g e 6. Drawing inferences

B. Strengths/Weaknesses, Advantages/Disadvantages, P r o m i s e s / M y t h s of E x p e r t S y s t e m s

1-4

skim

Expert

Computer

i. 2. C.

SESSION

Systems

Syllabus

P r o b l e m D o m a i n of E x i s t i n g Advantages/Disadvantages

Techniques

Assignment i. H a r m o n - C h a p t e r s 3 t h r o u g h 5, skim C h a p t e r 6 2. Note: b a s i c c o n c e p t s and t e c h n i q u e s will be m o r e e a s i l y u n d e r s t o o d if C h a p t e r s 4 and 5 are s t u d i e d p r i o r to class p r e s e n t a t i o n . 3. See B i b l i o g r a p h y for s u p p l e m e n t a l r e a d i n g s III

- EXISTING

EXPERT

SYSTEMS

AND

TOOLS

A.

Languages, Tools and S y s t e m s i. Basic concepts 2. AI l a n g u a g e s 3. Tools or S h e l l s

B.

T o o l s or Shells i. C a t e g o r i e s of Tools 2. Consultation Paradigms 3. Problem Solving Strategies

C.

Existing

D.

Demonstrations

E.

Assignment i. H a r m o n - C h a p t e r s 7 and 8 (skim last h a l f of b o t h chapters) 2. See B i b l i o g r a p h y for s u p p l e m e n t a l r e a d i n g 3. Note: text and s u p p l e m e n t a l r e a d i n g on E x p e r t Ease and EXSYS will m a x i m i z e y o u r r e t u r n from the demonstrations.

SESSION

Expert

Systems of E x p e r t

Ease

and SYSEX

IV - NRL Tour

A.

Navy Research

Lab

(NRL)

Tour

B.

Assignment I. Clifton, Pat 0., " A R T I F I C I A L I N T E L L I G E N C E - A FRIENDLY' I N T R O D U C T I O N " , A i r U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s ( R e s e a r c h R e p o r t No A U - A R I - 8 5 - 1 ) , M a r c h 1985 (report in y o u r p r o f e s s i o n a l library) 2. See B i b l i o g r a p h y for s u p p l e m e n t a l r e a d i n g

1-5

'USER

Expert

Computer

Systems

PHASE

SESSION

Syllabus

2 - DEVELOPING

V - DEVELOPING

EXPERT

AN EXPERT

SYSTEMS,

AN OVERVIEW

A.

P r e r e q u i s i t e s for D e v e l o p m e n t i. Suitability 2. Possible Design Goals 3. Feasibility 4. C r i t i c a l A s p e c t s of a P r o b l e m 5. H o w to P i c k a P r o b l e m

B.

Six

C.

A Case

D.

Assignment I. Harmon - Chapter 2. See B i b l i o g r a p h y

SESSION

VI

Steps

in B u i l d i n g

Study

a Small

Expert

System

= XCON

BUILDING

-

SYSTEM

A SMALL

ii for s u p p i e m e n t a l

EXPERT

SYSTEM,

reading

Part

I

A.

Microcomputer

B.

Where

C.

"Building Your First Expert i. The T e x t 2. The P r o g r a m = M I C R O - P S

D.

Building Your First Expert System i. Review 2. Building An Expert System with MICRO-PS

E.

Assignment i. N a g y - s k i m C h a p t e r s 1-4, C h a p t e r 2. H a r m o n - s k i m C h a p t e r s 9 a n d I0 3. See B i b l i o g r a p h y for s u p p l e m e n t a l

SESSION

VII

-

Familiarization

A r e We G o i n g ?

BUILDING

A.

Review

B.

Attachments

A SMALL

EXPERT

System"

SYSTEM,

1-6

reading

Part

DEMOI and T h e A t t a c h m e n t

5

Section

II

Expert

Computer

Systems

Syllabus

i. 2. 3.

General Nondeclared Attachments Declared Attachments

C.

Some i. 2.

User Friendly Features M a n y - for e x a m p l e : Error Detection

D.

More i. 2. 3. 4. 5.

on Commands/Knowledge Base Structure "message" Command Revisited "askfor" Command "justify" Command C o m m a n d s for S c r e e n C o n t r o l "if-then-endif" and "if-then-else-endif"

m.

Demonstrate

F.

Computer

G.

Assignment I. N a g y - C h a p t e r 6, s k i m C h a p t e r 7 2. H a r m o n - s k i m C h a p t e r 12 3. See Bibliography for s u p p l e m e n t a l

SESSION

VIII

DEM02

Lab

Session

- BUILDING

EXPERT

SYSTEM,

A.

Computer

B.

Assignment i. Nagy - skim Chapters 8 and 9 2. H a r m o n - s k i m C h a p t e r 15 3. See Bibliography for s u p p l e m e n t a l

SESSION

IX

- Guest

Lab

A SMALL

PART

III

Session

Speaker/TITAN

speaker

reading

A.

Guest

- Mr

Ron

B.

Assignment i. Harmon - Chapter 2. See B i b l i o g r a p h y

reading

Demonstration Shattuck

13 for

1-7

supplemental

reading

Structures

Expert

Computer

Systems

PHASE

SESSION A.

X

- THE The

The

PLAYERS

2. 3. 4.

Military

Applications

of AI

Technology

T y p e s of I n t e l l i g e n t W e a p o n s a n d B a t t l e Aids Potential Applications P r o b l e m s to O v e r c o m e Case Study - DARPA's Strategic Computer

Assignment i. See Bibliography

XI

Challenge

I C O T - I n s t i t u t e for N e w G e n e r a t i o n C o m p u t e r T e c h n o l o g y MCC - Microelectronics and Computer Technology Corporation DARPA - Defence Advanced Research Project Agency Others

Potential i.

SESSION

THE

CHALLENGE

Players

3. 4.

D.

AND

WORLDWIDE

The Fifth Generation At S t a k e The Response

i. 2.

C.

3 - THE

Game

i. 2. 3. B.

GAME

Syllabus

- The

Military's

speaker

for

Role

A.

Guest

C.

Assignment i. Harmon - Chapter 2. See Bibliography

supplemental

in t h e

Future

Management

Initiative

reading

of AI

- DARPA

14 for

1-8

supplemental

reading

Expert

Computer

Systems

PHASE

SESSION

XII

-

Syllabus

4 - COURSE

SUMMARY

SUMMARY

A.

Advantages

and disadvantages

B.

Future

C.

Preparing

D.

Course Highlights i. P h a s e 1 = I n t r o d u c t i o n and O v e r v i e w 2. P h a s e 2 = D e v e l o p i n g an E x p e r t S y s t e m 3. Phase 3 = The Worldwide Challenge 4. Phase 4 = Course Summary

E.

Review

of C o u r s e

F.

Course

Critique

F.

Assignment i. H a r m o n - C h a p t e r s 14 and 16 2. See B i b l i o g r a p h y for s u p p l e m e n t a l

of K n o w l e d g e

of AI

Systems

for the K n o w l e d g e

System

Revolution

Objectives

1-9

reading

13.140-I/IG S p r i n g 86

EXPERT

COMPUTER

SYSTEMS

FOR

INSTRUCTOR

SUBJECT:

SESSION

Purpose.

2.

Obj e c t i v e s A.

B. science.

LESSON

I - INTRODUCTION

GOALS

i.

GOVERNMENT

To i n t r o d u c e

To i n t r o d u c e To m o t i v a t e

EXECUTIVES

GUIDE

TO A R T I F I C I A L

INTELLIGENCE

& OBJECTIVES

the c o u r s e

and the

course methodology the s t u d e n t

field of study.

and o b j e c t i v e s .

in h i s / h e r

s t u d y of c o m p u t e r

C. To i n t r o d u c e the r a p i d l y d e v e l o p i n g f i e l d of p r a c t i c a l a r t i f i c i a l i n t e l l i g e n c e e m p h a s i s i n g the most s u c c e s s f u l a r e a of p r a c t i c a l a p p l i c a t i o n s - k n o w l e d g e b a s e d e x p e r t c o m p u t e r systems. D. current

To s t i m u l a t e and p o t e n t i a l

the s t u d e n t ' s i m a g i n a t i o n by i n t r o d u c i n g a p p l i c a t i o n s for this n e w t e c h n o l o g y .

E. To a c q u a i n t the s t u d e n t w i t h the h i s t o r y of the d e v e l o p m e n t of the computer, a r t i f i c i a l i n t e l l i g e n c e , and the s t a t e - o f - t h e - a r t in c o m p u t e r technology.

COORDINATION

.

Student

A.

Handouts

Course

Syllabus

(13.140-2/SH)

2-1

Expert

B. 2.

Computer

Course

Classroom A.

Instructor

Systems

Bibliography

Setup Requirements

Viewgraph

IRC Support

Requirements.

in a p p r o p r i a t e

Computer/program

L E S S O N

I.

Guide

(13.140-3/SH)

B. S p e c i f i e d n u m b e r of K A Y P R O C o m p u t e r s c l a s s r o o m w i t h "Eliza" p r o g r a m d i s k for each. 3.

Lesson

setup.

O U T L I N E

Lecture A.

Overview •

2. 3.

of C o u r s e

(VG I-l)

Introduce instructor(s) Conduct informal survey State Course Objectives

of class' (VG I-2)

computer

expertise

- c o u r s e for m a n a g e r s NOT " t e c h i e s " - to i n c r e a s e a w a r e n e s s N O T t e a c h m e c h a n i c s .

Review Course Bibliography

Outline,

Assignments,

and

- v o l u m t i n o u s r e a d i n g a s s i g n m e n t s o p t i o n a l for student edification - m a n y a s s i g n e d a r t i c l e s short, e a s y r e a d i n g 5.

Other

administrative

items

- computer jargon - DON'T questions - PLEASE! B.

Demonstration

- Meet

LET ME!

"Eliza"

d e v e l o p e d in 1 9 6 5 ' s b y J o s e p h W e i z e n b a u m of M I T as d e m o n s t r a t i o n of AI - N O T an e x p e r t system, m e r e l y c l e v e r p r o g r a m m i n g - see a r t i c l e in t h i s w e e k s u p p l e m e n t a l r e a d i n g f o r more information -

C.

Computers

and Computer

Technology

2-2

Expert

Computer

i. 2.

Systems

Instructor

Why should managers W h a t is a c o m p u t e r ?

study computer (VG I-4)

parts h a r d w a r e vs s o f t w a r e - bits/bytes into usefulness - Von Nuemann (John Von Neumann) - algorithm

Lesson

science?

Guide

(vG

~-3)

-

-

3.

Evolution

of

the

computer

(VG

architecture

I-5)

- n o t e a c c e l e r a t i o n of t e c h n o l o g y o v e r years - e m p h a s i z e m i l i t a r y ' s r o l e in p u s h i n g o f - t h e - a r t d u e to n e e d 4.

Where

are we

today

and where

are

we

last the

i0 state-

going?

- c h i p t e c h n o l o g y - LSI to V L S I to V H S I C - m e m o r y - 64 X 1 K to 1 M e g a b y t e c h i p to CD - i n t e r f a c e - p a p e r t a p e to p u n c h c a r d s to C R T natural language s o f t w a r e - m a c h i n e l a n g u a g e to s p r e a d s h e e t s expert systems

-

D.

What i.

is A r t i f i c i a l Definition

to to

Intelligence? (VG

I-6)

- define "inference" (the p r o c e s s b y w h i c h n e w f a c t s are d e r i v e d f r o m k n o w f a c t s ) - " m o d u s p o n e n s " = b a s i c r u l e of l o g i c t h a t a s s e r t s : if A i m p l i e s B a n d A is fact, t h e n B c a n be a s s u m e d , e x a m p l e : R u l e 1 - If t h e s k y is black, t h e n it K n o w n f a c t - T h e s k y is b l a c k • N e w fact - It is n i g h t ( f r o m r u l e I). 2. 3. 4. E.

Current

i



2. F.

The AI F a m i l y T r e e (VG I-7) H i s t o r y of AI (VG I-8) W h y so m u c h h o o p - l a a b o u t A I ? and

Future

Applications

(VG

of AI

Current Applications (VG 1-10) Potential Applications (VG I-ll)

Problem

Areas

(VG

1-12)

2-3

I-9)

is n i g h t .

Expert

G.

Computer

Next -

o

3.

Systems

Week

Instructor

- Session

II

- Knowledge

What are they? How do they differ from What good are they? How do they work?

Demonstration. Practical

Meet

Exercise.

"Eliza" None

2-4

today's

Based

Lesson

Expert

computer

Guide

Systems

software?

Expert Computer Systems

I n s t r u c t o r L e s s o n Guide

13.140-2/IG S P R I N G 86

EXPERT

COMPUTER

SYSTEMS

INSTRUCTOR

SUBJECT:

FOR

GOVERNMENT

LESSON

GUIDE

S E S S I O N II - K N O W L E D G E D - B A S E D

GOALS

AND

EXECUTIVES

EXPERT S Y S T E M S

OVERVIEW

OBJECTIVES

i. Purpose. To i n t r o d u c e and f a m i l i a r i z e the s t u d e n t w i t h k n o w l e d g e - b a s e d e x p e r t c o m p u t e r systems. 2.

Objectives

A. To define, clarify, and m a k e sense of the claims, promises, and r e a l i t i e s of p r a c t i c a l AI a p p l i c a t i o n s . B. To a c q u i r e an u n d e r s t a n d i n g of and a p p r e c i a t i o n for the a p p l i c a t i o n s , c a p a b i l i t i e s , and l i m i t a t i o n s of e x p e r t c o m p u t e r systems. C. To c o m p a r e and c o n t r a s t h u m a n p r o b l e m s o l v i n g w i t h the s t a t e - o f - t h e - a r t c o m p u t e r p r o b l e m solving.

COORDINATION

i.

S t u d e n t Handouts.

None

2.

C l a s s r o o m Setup R e q u i r e m e n t s .

3.

IRC S u p p o r t R e q u i r e m e n t s .

LESSON

Viewgraph

None

OUTLINE

2-5

Expert

i.

Computer

Systems

Instructor

Lesson

Guide

Lecture A.

Basic .

Concepts

and

techniques

Computer Aided Decision 1985) (VG II-l) a.

Data-based Systems includes data base i) D a t a

Base

Making

(Steven

= software

Management

2) M a n a g e m e n t

system

System

- software that manages e x a m p l e = d B a s e II Information

W.

Oxman

that

(DBMS)

data

in d a t a

System

(MIS)

base

- software that stores, processes, retrieves, and disseminates information in D B M S - examples = report generation and telecommunication packages 3)

Decision

Support

Systems

(DSS)

- software that enhances decision makers e f f e c t i v e n e s s in u s i n g d a t a f r o m D B M S or MIS - o f t e n p r e s e n t s i n f o r m a t i o n in g r a p h s or charts - two catagories = user interface support and models - e x a m p l e = t r e n d or f o r e c a s t i n g a n a l y s i s packages b.

Knowledge-based Systems that includes knowledge m e a n i n g of data) i) N a t u r a l

Language

= software systems data base (data and

Systems

- s o f t w a r e t h a t a c t s as u s e r i n t e r f a c e c o m m u n i c a t e in f l e x i b l e f r a m e w o r k c o m m o n to u s e r 2)

Expert

Systems

- software that uses about the behavior

2-6

knowledge (rules of e l e m e n t s of a

to

Expert

Computer

Systems

Instructor

Lesson

Guide

p a r t i c u l a r s u b j e c t d o m a i n ) , facts, and i n f e r e n c e t e c h n i q u e s ( r e a s o n i n g ) to solve problems that normally require t h e a b i l i t i e s of h u m a n e x p e r t s names (VG II-2) goals (VG II-3) - common properties, characteristics, and features (VG II-4) -

-

.

Human

Problem

Solving

(Paul

Harmon,

David

King

1985) a.

Human i)

Information

Processing

(VG

II-5)

Input - c o g n i t i v e p r o c e s s o r (like CPU) c y c l e s to o b t a i n i n f o r m a t i o n f r o m s e n s o r y b u f f e r and t r a n s f e r s it to w o r k i n g m e m o r y ( l i k e " f e t c h execute" cycle) - for s i m p l e t a s k s = c o g n i t i v e s y s t e m to m o t o r o u t p u t w i t h l i t t l e or no t h o u g h t - for c o m p l e x t a s k s = m u s t u s e l o n g t e r m memory

2)

Memory = stored indexing system -

-

-

3)

symbols

with

complex

simple model " s c r i p t s " = like h o w to m e e t s o m e o n e . " c h u n k s " = c l u s t e r s of s y m b o l s o r p a t t e r n of s t i m u l i h i e r a r c h i c a l l y o r g a n i z e to f o r m v a s t n e t w o r k • learning = linking and revising links b e t w e e n t h e s e c h u n k s of d a t a short term memory (working space) . 3 to 7 a c t i v a t e d c h u n k s due l i m i t e d r e s o u r c e s of h u m a n c o g n i t i v e p r o c e s s e s "focus" o n c e r t a i n c h u n k s l i k e s c r e e n on spreadsheet program long term memory . h o l d s i n d i v i d u a l s m a s s of a c c u m u l a t e d knowledge . trick not storing but retrieving info • t a k e 7 s e c o n d s p e r c h u n k to l i n k i n f o in long term memory Output - after

scanning

2-7

and

searching

memory,

Expert

Computer

Systems

Instructor

Lesson

i n f o r m a t i o n s e n t to m o t o r s y s t e m in s o m e o b s e r v a b l e a c t i v i t y b.

Problem i) 2)

Guide

resulting

Solving

Divergent Varieties

vs C o n v e r g e n t of K n o w l e d g e

Reasoning

(VG II-6)

- s u r f a c e k n o w l e d g e = h e u r i s t i c s ( r u l e s of thumb) from experience - deep knowledge = principles, axioms, and laws from books 3) V a r i e t i e s - well

of P r o b l e m s

and ill-defined

4) V a r i e t i e s

problems

of t e c h n i q u e s

- familiar problem = systematically gather relative information, build prototype solution, ignor irrelevant details, revise h y p o t h e s i s in l i g h t of r e s t r a i n s unfamiliar problem = struggle, guess, experiment - b o t h c a s e s = g o o d t h e o r y of p r o b l e m solving, good heuristics will help -

c.

Expert -

-

-

.

Knowledge

(VG II-7)

A n e x p e r t = i n d i v i d u a l w h o is w i d e l y r e c o g n i z e d as b e i n g a b l e to s o l v e a particular type problem that most cannot s o l v e as e f f i c i e n t l y or e f f e c t i v e l y 5 0 - 1 0 0 K c h u n k s of h e u r i s t i c i n f o r m a t i o n t a k e s a b o u t i0 y e a r s to a c q u i r e most expert systems include only surface k n o w l e d g e to l i m i t s i z e of k n o w l e d g e b a s e

A r c h i t e c t u r e of a K n o w l e d g e - b a s e d ( S t e v e n W. O x m a n 1985) (VG II-8) Knowledge Base - Working Memory

System

contains rules and facts that embody the system's knowledge

-

. k i n d s of k n o w l e d g e (VG II-9) - Inference

Expert

Engine

in a k n o w l e d g e

= a computer

2-8

base

program

that

Expert

Computer

Systems

Instructor

Lesson

Guide

c o n t a i n s the i n f e r e n c e s t r a t e g i e s a n d c o n t r o l s t h a t m a n i p u l a t e the f a c t s a n d r u l e s of the knowledge base - User

Interface

Explanation

-

Subsystem

computer program(s) a l l o w u s e r to e n t e r and rules, a n d a s k questions

that facts

- Knowledge Acquisition Facility = a computer program that provides a dialogue between the s y s t e m a n d the h u m a n e x p e r t for a c q u i r i n g k n o w l e d g e a n d p l a c e s r u l e s in k n o w l e d g e b a s e 4.

Production

System

as a P r o c e s s i n g

Model

c o m p a r e a n d c o n t r a s t r u l e vs f a c t - " M o d u s p o n e n s " = b a s i c r u l e of l o g i c (If A i m p l i e s B (rule) a n d A is the c a s e (fact) t h e n we c a n a s s u m e B), e x a m p l e : R u l e 1 = N o v 2 8 t h is S u s a n ' s b i r t h d a y • F a c t = T o d a y is N o v 2 8 t h • N e w F a c t = T o d a y is S u s a n ' s b i r t h d a y - so, a p p l y p r o d u c t i o n r u l e ( i f - t h e n s t a t e m e n t ) to w o r k i n g m e m o r y (facts), if t h e y s u c c e e d , t h e n c o n t r i b u t e n e w f a c t to m e m o r y ! powerful model because discrete, simple, flexible -

-

.

Strategies a.

for R e p r e s e n t i n g

Semantic

Knowledge

(VG

II-10)

Networks

- n e t w o r k of n o d e s c o n n e c t e d b y l i n k s n o d e s u s e d to r e p r e s e n t o b j e c t s o r descriptors links relate objects and discriptors e x a m p l e = (VG II-ll) . o b j e c t s c a n be n o u n s or c o n c e p t u a l e n t i t i e s (acts, e v e n t s , or a b s t r a c t categories) • links can represent class/instance r e l a t i o n s h i p (is-a), p r o p e r t i e s ( h a s - a ) , h e u r i s t i c k n o w l e d g e ( c a u s e s ) , o r be d e f i n i t i o n a l (wears) - a d v a n t a g e s = f l e x i b i l e , i n h e r i t a n c e (one n o d e i n h e r i t s c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of a n o t h e r ) - d i s a d v a n t a g e = d i f f i c u l t y in h a n d l i n g e x c e p t i o n s (what is W i l s o n = o n e a r m e d man?) -

-

-

b.

Object-Attribute-Value

2-9

(O-A-V)

Triplets

Expert

Computer

Systems

Instructor

Lesson

Guide

- objects = physical (door) or conceptional (bank loan) entities - attributes = general characteristics or properties associated with objects (size, shape, interest rate) - value = specific nature of attribute in particular situation (green, 12%) example = (VG II-12) some features: remove value = from dynamic to static instance • order/ralationship of o b j e c t s = t r e e s can modify with "certainty" factor to handle uncertainty -

-

c.

Rules

(VG

II-13)

- each part of "premise" called "expression" o r "if c l a u s e " - "conclusion" contains "expression(s)" or "then clause(es)" logical operators, "and" a n d "or" - certainty factor applicable to rules too -

d.

Frames

(VG

II-14)

- frame = discription of o b j e c t w h i c h c o n t a i n s "slots" for all information associated with object - slot = may contain values, point to other frames, sets of rules, or procedures to obtain values - advantage = allow for richer representation of facts disadvantage = m o r e c o m p l e x a n d m o r e difficult to develop than O-A-V/Rule systems NOTE: (VG I I - 1 5 ) . frames, O-A-V, and rule systems are special cases of semantic network . s a m e f a c t s c a n be r e p r e s e n t e d in any one of three systems -

-

e.

Logical

Expressions

- two common forms = propositional predicate calculus - propositional logic • = statements that are true or t h e n C)

2-10

logic

false

and

(if

A,

Expert

Computer

Systems

-

6.

Lesson

Guide

• c a n l i n k w i t h A N D / O R (if A a n d B, t h e n C) predicate calculus = e x t e n s i o n or p r o p o s i t i o n a l l o g i c to f o r c e t r u e of f a l s e s t a t e m e n t ( " ( i s - r e d (ball) = a b a l l is r e d ) " ) n o t e - s t a t e m e n t t r u e or f a l s e • can address multiple objects ("daughter-of (Emily, S u s a n ) " = E m i l y is t h e d a u g h t e r of Susan) . can link with Boolian AND/OR ("daughter-of (Emily, S u s a n ) A N D ( d a u g h t e r - o f ( K a r e n , Susan)") • c a n "nest" p r e d i c a t e s ("condition(sleeve (coat), s h i n y ) " ) - Note - logical formulations represents knowledge differently then other methods, facts retrieved only by asking true/false question

Drawing a.

Instructor

Inferences

Inference

Engine

stands between user and knowledge base - two tasks . examines existing facts and rules, and adds new facts when possible d e c i d e s in w h i c h o r d e r i n f e r e n c e s a r e m a d e - the h e a r t of the e x p e r t s y s t e m b u t q u i t e simple because human inference simple but combine great knowledge base and w e l l - c h o o s e n h e u r i s t i c s a l l o w i n g e x p e r t to q u i c k l y c u t p r o b l e m d o m a i n to m a n a g e a b l e size -

b.

Guiding

Inference

- modus ponens = most common inference strategy • s i m p l e rule, e a s i l y u n d e r s t o o d . c e r t a i n v a l i d i m p l i c a t i o n s c a n n o t be d r a w n u s i n g t h i s r u l e (if B is false, m o s t systems cannot reach the conclusion that A is t h e r e f o r e false, c a l l e d " m o d u s t o l l e n s " ) - reasoning with uncertainty . r u l e f a l s e if f a c t ( s ) u n k n o w n . r u l e s i n c l u d e d in k n o w l e d g e b a s e to provide knowledge about incomplete i n f o r m a t i o n (cf l e s s t h a n 0.2 = f a l s e or

2-11

Expert

Computer

Systems

-

c.

Instructor

if u n k n o w n , a s k ) "resolution" = a modus systems

ponens

Lesson

of

Guide

logical

Control - two problems • where to start way to resolve conflict when alternative lines of reasoning emerge - search strategies (Frederick Hayes-Roth i985) • back-chaining (or g o a l - d i r e c t e d ) = begin with goal and successively examine any rule(s) with matching conclusion • forward-chaining (stimulus or data-driven) = rule "fires" when working memory facts match premise • depth-first vs breadth-first searches (VG II-i6) • combination = like humans - monotonic vs nonmontonic reasoning • mono = true facts remain true • nonmono = true facts may be retracted • most of todays systems use monotonic reasoning because complication of undoing process

B. Strengths/Weaknesses, Advantages/Disadvantages, Promises/Myths of Expert Systems .

2.

Problem Domain of Existing Techniques (VG II-17) (Paul Harmon, David King 1985) - the barriers • hardware = existing computers not fast enough (solution = parallel processing systems or fifth generation computers) software = handle nonmonotonic problems with great difficulty (solution = machine that can learn from own experience, "machine learning") - both problems will limit knowledge system development over next several years Advantages/Disadvantages a.

(Mike

Turner

Advantages -

financial . productivity improvements • increased business volume

2-12

1985)

Expert

Computer

Systems

Instructor

Lesson

Guide

quantifiable • faster turnaround . faster response time • time saved on routine tasks . time saved in learning or coping with new working methods • faster access to expertise - qualitative • improved knowledge quality and accessibility changes to ability of staff to perform work effectively i m p r o v e d q u a l i t y of s e r v i c e s -

b.

Disadvantages - f i n a n c i a l , c o s t of: • equipment purchases • system software development • specialist staff and support

C•

Next

Week

= Session

III-

Existing

Expert

structure Systems

and

Tools - a l o o k at AI l a n g u a g e s , p r o g r a m m i n g environments, and Tools - including demonstrations of Expert-Ease and SYSEX, two expert system tools available for microcomputers

2.

Demonstrations•

3.

Practical

None

Exercises.

None

2-13

Expert Computer Systems

I n s t r u c t o r L e s s o n Guide

13.140-3/IG S P R I N G 86

EXPERT

COMPUTER

SYSTEMS

FOR

INSTRUCTOR

SUBJECT:

GOVERNMENT

LESSON

EXECUTIVES

GUIDE

S E S S I O N III - E X I S T I N G E X P E R T SYSTEMS AND T O O L S

GOALS

& OBJECTIVES

i. P u r p o s e . To f a m i l i a r i z e the student w i t h the c u r r e n t s t a t e - o f - t h e - a r t in the d e v e l o p m e n t of E x p e r t S y s t e m s and Tools. 2.

Objectives

A. To a c q u a i n t the s e n i o r e x e c u t i v e w i t h AI c o m p u t e r l a n g u a g e s and p r o g r a m m i n g e n v i r o n m e n t s w i t h e m p h a s i s on c o m m e r c i a l l y a v a i l a b l e e x p e r t s y s t e m tools for m i c r o p r o c e s s o r s . B. To e x p l o r e the d i f f i c u l t i e s d e v e l o p m e n t of an e x p e r t system.

a s s o c i a t e d w i t h the

C. To give the s e n i o r e x e c u t i v e an a p p r e c i a t i o n p o t e n t i a l a p p l i c a t i o n s for AI technology.

for future

COORDINATION

i.

Student

2.

Classroom Setup Requirements A.

Handouts.

None

Viewgraph

B. A 16-bit c o m p u t e r and p r o j e c t o r in s p e c i f i e d c l a s s r o o m w i t h c o p i e s of E X P E R T EASE and EXSYS software. 3.

IRC S u p p o r t R e q u i r e m e n t s .

Computer/software

2-14

setup.

Expert

Computer

Systems

Instructor

L E S S O N

i.

Lesson

Guide

O U T L I N E

Lesson A.

Languages,

Tools

and

Systems

(Paul

Harmon,

David

King

1985) .

B a s i c C o n c e p t s - L e v e l s of S o f t w a r e ( b e t w e e n p r o b l e m and c o m p u t e r h a r d w a r e ) (VG I I I - l )

human

- machine language = binary code - operating system = handles utility functions high-level languages . examples: FORTRAN, BASIC . i n t e r p r e t e r vs c o m p i l e r - programming environment = special packages . e x a m p l e : F O R T R A N l i b r a r y of s u b r o u t i n e s - t o o l s (or s h e l l s ) = to f a c i l i t a t e r a p i d d e v e l o p m e n t of u s e f u l " s y s t e m s " . examples: spreadsheet, EXPERT EASE - s y s t e m = c o m b i n a t i o n of t o o l a n d k n o w l e d g e in specific problem domain 2.

Tools a.

(VG III-2) Knowledge

(Mike

Acquisition

Turner

1985)

Products

generate rules from user-provided examples - r u l e s f o r m k n o w l e d g e b a s e for s u b s e q u e n t consultations -

b.

Expert

System

Shells

(or T o o l s )

- expert system without knowledge base (example: E M Y C I N f r o m M Y C I N ) - d e s i g n e d to f a c i l i t a t e r a p i d d e v e l o p m e n t knowledge systems (example: spreadsheet) H O W E V E R , u s u a l l y d e s i g n e d to a d d r e s s s p e c i f i c c l a s s of p r o b l e m advantages (VG I I I - 3 ) c. 3.

AI

AI L a n g u a g e s

and P r o g r a m m i n g

Environments

Languages

- m o s t AI p r o g r a m m i n g d o n e in o n e of t w o h i g h - l e v e l l a n g u a g e s = L I S P or P R O L O G - AI l a n g u a g e c o n s t r u c t s f a c i l i t a t e d e v e l o p i n g

2-15

of

Expert

Computer

Systems

Instructor

Lesson

Guide

symbolic computing programs j u s t as i t e r a t i v e constructs are useful for numerical programming - LISP (LISt Processing) i n v e n t e d in 1 9 6 0 ' s b y J o h n M c C a r t h y second oldest computer programming language s t i l l in u s e ( f i r s t = F O R T R A N ) consist of operations that facilitate creation of programs that manipulate list PROLOG (PROgramming LOGic) i n v e n t e d in 1 9 7 2 b y A l a i n C o l m e r a u e r (U of Marseilles) • language of Japanese Fifth Generation Project • contains constructs t h a t m a k e it e a s y to w r i t e programs that manipulate logical expressions -

B.

Tools .

or

Shells

Categories of (Paul Harmon,

Tools David

(or S h e l l s ) King 1985)

small system building tools • for personal computers • less than 400 rules • examples = E X P E R T EASE, E X S Y S - large, narrow system building tools . 500 t o s e v e r a l t h o u s a n d r u l e s • run on LISP machines or larger constrained to 1 g e n e r a l c o n s u l t a t i o n • e x a m p l e s = S.I, T I M M - large, hybrid system building tools • 5 0 0 to s e v e r a l t h o u s a n d r u l e s • run on LISP machines or larger . include features of several different consultation paradigms e x a m p l e s = KEE, L O O P S -

2.

Consultation

paradigm

Paradigms

- paradigm = describes generic types of problemsolving scenarios (example = diagnosis/ prescription paradigm, used in most commercial tools) - typical paradigms = (VG I I I - 4 ) 3.

Problem

Solving

Strategies

(VG

III-5)

- t h e p r o b l e m to b e s o l v e d w i l l o f t e n d i c t a t e the knowledge representation, inference, and control strategies (software techniques) to b e u s e d - two extremes:

2-16

Expert

Computer

Systems

Instructor

Lesson

Guide

. u s e a v a i l a b l e tool • use custom-assembled t e c h n i q u e - no t o o l or standard paradigm (longer development, higher c o s t b u t p r o b l e m m i g h t n o t fit a v a i l a b l e techniques) B.

Existing i.

Expert

Systems

(Mike

Turner

1985)

PROSPECTOR - a s y s t e m w h i c h a c t s as a g e o l o g i c a l a d v i s o r - credited with finding $i00 million moybdenum d e p o s i t in W a s h i n g t o n S t a t e in 1 9 8 2

2.

DRILLING

ADVISOR

- diagnoses drilling problems and offers recommendations for c o r r e c t i v e a c t i o n - p a y s b a c k its r e s e a r c h a n d d e v e l o p m e n t f e w t i m e s it is u s e d 3.

costs

each

INDUCE - b y u s i n g k n o w l e d g e a b o u t h o w to l e a r n f r o m examples has become the world's primary authority on s o y a b e a n d i s e a s e d i a g n o s i s

4.

XCON - configures minicomputer l a y - o u t s for D i g i t a l Equipment - c o r r e c t o v e r 99% of cases, r e c o r d b e t t e r t h a n human configuration specialists - c a s e s t u d y of X C O N in S e s s i o n V

5.

STEAMER - t e a c h N a v y p e r s o n n e l h o w to o p e r a t e s h i p b o a r d steamplants - s i m u l a t e s a f r i g a t e s t e a m p l a n t on c o l o r d i s p l a y - e n a b l e s u s e r to e x p e r i m e n t w i t h v a r i o u s o p e r a t i n g procedures - c a n e x p l a i n its o p e r a t i o n a n d t e r m i n o l o g y

C.

Demonstrations i.

EXPERT

2.

EXSYS

EASE

2-17

Expert

D.

Computer

Next

Systems

Week

- meet

.

.

in

=

Instructor

SESSION

front

of

IV

NWC

-

NAVY

RESEARCH

building

at

Demonstrations. A.

EXPERT

B.

SYSEX

Practical

EASE

Exercise.

None

2-18

1530

LAB

Lesson

TOUR

hours

Guide

Expert

Computer

Systems

Instructor

Lesson

Guide

13.140-5/IG S p r i n g 86

EXPERT

COMPUTER

SYSTEMS

FOR

INSTRUCTOR

SUBJECT:

i. Purpose. difficulties 2.

LESSION

SESSION V - DEVELOPING

GOALS

GOVERNMENT

EXECUTIVES

GUIDE

EXPERT

SYSTEMS,

AN O V E R V I E W

& OBJECTIVES

To f a m i l i a r i z e the s e n i o r e x e c u t i v e w i t h the a s s o c i a t e d w i t h the d e v e l o p m e n t of an e x p e r t system.

Objectives

A. To a c q u i r e an u n d e r s t a n d i n g of and a p p r e c i a t i o n c a p a b i l i t i e s and l i m i t a t i o n s of e x p e r t c o m p u t e r systems. B. To e x p l o r e the d i f f i c u l t i e s d e v e l o p m e n t of an e x p e r t system. C. To f u r t h e r c l a r i f y p r a c t i c a l AI a p p l i c a t i o n s .

associated

the p r o m i s e s

Student

2.

Classroom

3.

IRC S u p p o r t

Handouts.

None

Setup Requirements. Requirements.

Viewgraph

None

LESSON

OUTLINE

2-19

the

and r e a l i t i e s

COORDINATION

i.

with

of

for the

Expert

1.

Computer

Systems

Instructor

Lesson

Guide

Lesson A.

Prerequisites i.

for

Development

(Mike

Turner

1985)

Suitability - m u s t f i r s t d e t e r m i n e if e x p e r t s y s t e m t e c h n i q u e s are a p p l i c a b l e (or a r e conventional methods better suited?) - positive and negative indicators (VG V - l ) • NOT DOABLE USING CONVENTIONAL TECHNIQUES - must u s e u n c e r t a i n d a t a or k n o w l e d g e , o r c o m p u t a tionally infeasible • NON-COMPUTER STAFF - English-like f o r m of knowledge base makes editing easier EXPLAINATION REQUIRED - i n t r i n s i c to e x p e r t systems • USE KNOWLEDGE MORE THAN ONE WAY - can change i n f e r e n c e m o d u l e , f r o m d o i n g to t e a c h i n g ) RULES EASIER THAN EQUATIONS - example = s e t s of regulations

2.

Possible

3.

Feasibility - expert

Design

Goals

(VG V-2)

(VG V-3)

constraints

. must exist and must have ready access • e x p e r t m u s t be e n t h u s i a s t i c a b o u t c o o p e r a t i n g in d e v e l o p m e n t • e x p e r t m u s t be a b l e to e x p l a i n h i s s p e c i a l k n o w l e d g e a n d e x p e r i e n c e a n d m e t h o d u s e d to a p p l y to p a r t i c u l a r p r o b l e m - problem

constraints

• p r o b l e m d o m a i n m u s t be w e l l b o u n d e d a n d reasonably narrow . p r o b l e m s o l v i n g in d o m a i n s h o u l d n o t r e q u i r e t h e u s e of c o m m o n s e n s e r e a s o n i n g • p r i m a r y s o u r c e of e x p e r t ' s a b i l i t y m u s t be special knowledge, judgement, and e x p e r i e n c e • p r o b l e m s h o u l d t y p i c a l l y t a k e an e x p e r t b e t w e e n a few m i n u t e s a n d a f e w h o u r s to s o l v e - technology . knowledge

constraints must

2-20

be

efficiently

represented

in

Expert

Computer

Systems

Instructor

Lesson

Guide

current knowledge representation languages . e x p l a n a t i o n s t e n d to be r a t h e r s t y l i s e d a n d limited • most time-consuming to c o n s t r u c t . d i f f i c u l t to m a i n t a i n c o n s i s t e n c y a n d resolve conflicts within knowledge base d i f f i c u l t to h a n d l e o r i d e n t i f y p r o b l e m s at b o u n d a r i e s of k n o w l e d g e b a s e 4.

Critical a.

Aspects

of

a Problem

Reliability

of

Data

and

(VG V - 4 ) Knowledge

- no n o i s e ( e x t r a n e o u s d a t a ) n o r e r r o r s w h i c h m i g h t l e a d to i n c o n s i s t a n c i e s or i n c o r r e c t ness b.

Time

Dependency

of D a t a

- w h e t h e r d a t a is s t a t i c or n o t - if t a s k ' s h i s t o r y or c u r r e n t n e s s of d a t a i m p o r t a n t , t h e n the s y s t e m m u s t be a b l e to cope with time c.

Size

of

the

Search

Space

- in m a n y s y s t e m s d e s i r e d s o l u t i o n c a l l e d "goal", t h e n the set of p o s s i b l e s t e p s l e a d i n g f r o m i n i t i a l c o n d i t i o n to g o a l is v i e w e d as a " s e a r c h s p a c e " - s i m p l i e s t f o r m of s e a r c h s p a c e v i e w e d as t r e e s t r u c t u r e or n e t w o r k s e a r c h s p a c e c o n s i d e r e d " s m a l l " if f e a s i b l e to p r e d e f i n e i n f e r e n c e n e t w o r k - if s e a r c h i n g l a r g e space, s p e c i a l l y t a i l o r e d s e a r c h s p a c e s m u s t be g e n e r a t e d f o r e a c h a p p l i c a t i o n p r o b l e m (can u s e h e u r i s t i c s ) -

5.

How -

-

-

-

to P i c k

a Problem

data and knowledge certain d a t a are s t a t i c s e a r c h s p a c e is s m a l l in g e n e r a l s m a l l - s c a l e s u c c u s s f u l a p p l i c a t i o n s h a v e been: . a classificatory or d i a g n o s t i c p r o b l e m • modest goals • m a n a g e m e n t p r e p a r e d to c h a m p i o n p r o j e c t enthusiastic human expert available no r e q u i r e m e n t t h a t d e v e l o p m e n t be c o s t

2-21

Expert

Computer

Systems

Instructor

Lesson

Guide

justified B .

S i x S t e p s in B u i l d i n g a S m a l l E x p e r t (Paul Harmon, D a v i d K i n g 1985)

System

(VG V - 5 )

- s e l e c t a Tool i m p l i c i t l y c o m m i t to p a r t i c u l a r c o n s u l t a t i o n paradigm • software techniques (knowledege representation, inference and control strategies) • e a s e of u s e • fit p r o b l e m • c o s t of software~additional hardware (if r e q u i r e d ) - i d e n t i f y the p r o b l e m / a n a l y z e knowledge p r o b l e m b e f o r e Tool in real w o r l d knowledge acquisition phase design system • d e s i g n on p a p e r w/ f l o w d i a g r a m s and f e w r u l e s . f r o m a n a l y s i s to d e s i g n - develop a prototype • c r e a t e k n o w l e d g e b a s e and t e s t expand, t e s t and r e v i s e maintain and update • c o n t i n u e s for l i f e of s y s t e m o n s m a l l s y s t e m s c a n be d o n e b y p e o p l e w h o c r e a t e a n d use t h e m -

-

-

David

C. Case Study K i n g 1985) i.

= XCON

(Mike

Turner

1985

and Paul

Harmon,

XCON - operational expert system that routinely c o n f i g u r e s a n d c h e c k s for c o m p l e t e n e s s of D i g i t a l Equipment Corporation's (DEC) V A X - I I / 7 8 0 c o m p u t e r systems manages more complex planning (rather then c l a s s i f i c a t o r y or d i a g n o s t i c ) t a s k by: a v o i d a n c e of u n c e r t a i n t y of d a t a p r o b l e m b y c h e c k i n g for i n c o m p a t i b l e or m i s s i n g c o m p o n e n t s . a v o i d a n c e of u n c e r t a i n t y in c o n f i g u r a t i o n k n o w l e d g e , c o m p o n e n t s e i t h e r fit t o g e t h e r or do n o t . d e f i n i n g r e a s o n a b l e small p r o b l e m d o m a i n w i t h clearly defined limits • a v o i d s n e e d to t r y a l t e r n a t i v e c o n f i g u r a t i o n s b y c a r e f u l s t e p by s t e p p r o c e d u r e s so p a r t i a l c o n f i g u r a t i o n c a n a l w a y s be e x t e n d e d i n t o final correct configuration -

2-22

Expert

Computer

Systems

Instructor

2.

Development

3.

Current

Lesson

Guide

(VG V-6)

Status

of

XCON

- g r o w n f r o m 2 5 0 r u l e to 3 3 0 0 r u l e s y s t e m a b l e to configure all VAX and PDP systems sold in significant volumes - performs at v e r y h i g h l e v e l o f c o m p e t e n c e , as g o o d as c o n f i g u r a t i o n experts - system now managed and kept current entirely by DEC personnel spin-offs: XSEL salesperson's assistant • PTRANS = manufacturing management assistant • both using same knowledge basel -

-

4.

Benifits

to

DEC

- determines completeness of customer's orders soon after receipt (approximately 1.5 C P U m i n u t e s per) - more rapid turnround of orders - reduced number of unconfigurable systems delivered to customers - savings of around $i0 million per annum, roughly equal to development cost - an o v e r a l l i m p r o v e d l e v e l of c u s t o m e r service - h u m a n e x p e r t s n o w f r e e to f o c u s a l m o s t e n t i r e l y on various specialized configuration problems D.

Next

Week

= SESSION

- application

2.

Demonstration.

3.

Practical

of

the

VI

- BUILDING

methodology

None

Exercise.

None

2-23

AN

EXPERT

discussed

SYSTEM, today

Part

I

Expert

Computer

Systems

Instructor

Lesson

Guide

13.140-6/IG S P R I N G 86

EXPERT

SUBJECT:

COMPUTER SYSTEMS INSTRUCTOR

S E S S I O N VI

FOR GOVERNMENT LESSON GUIDE

- B U I L D I N G A SMALL

GOALS

EXECUTIVES

EXPERT

SYSTEM,

PART

I

& OBJECTIVES

i. Purpose. To f a m i l i a r i z e the s t u d e n t w i t h the 1 6 - b i t m i c r o c o m p u t e r s y s t e m s b e i n g u s e d and to i n t r o d u c e the E x p e r t S y s t e m Tool, MICRO-PS. 2.

Objectives

A. To f a m i l i a r i z e Disk O p e r a t i n g System. B.

To i n t r o d u c e

the s t u d e n t

the E x p e r t

with

System

the 1 6 - b i t m i c r o c o m p u t e r

Tool,

MICRO-PS.

C. To e q u i p the s t u d e n t w i t h s u f f i c i e n t k n o w l e d g e c o n c e r n i n g M I C R O - P S so that h e / s h e can b e g i n to f o r m u l a t e p r o b l e m to w h i c h the s t u d e n t can e m p l o y the Tool.

a

D. To e x p l o r e the d i f f i c u l t i e s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h the d e v e l o p m e n t of an e x p e r t s y s t e m t h r o u g h p r a c t i c a l a p p l i c a t i o n . COORDINATION

i.

Student

2.

Classroom

A. B. (for the

Handouts.

MS DOS G o u g e

(13.140-5/SH)

Setup Requirements

Viewgraph Twelve 16-bit microprocessors, printers i n s t r u c t o r ) in s p e c i f i e d classroom.

2-24

and one

projector

Expert

3.

Computer

IRC

Support

Systems

Instructor

Requirements.

Computer

L E S S O N

I.

Lesson

Guide

setup•

O U T L I N E

Lesson A.

Microcomputer

Familiarization

(use

Student

Handout)

- ON/OFF, Printer, Keyboard (include ) DOS, P r o m p t s , Commands (include "DIR") - How to backup your work (make working copy Supplemental T e x t E d i t o r (if a v a i l a b l e ) B.

Where

are

we

of

MICRO-PS)

going?

- familiarization with computer and MICRO-PS (i 1/2 w k s ) - build your own Expert System using MICRO-PS practical experience is t h e g o a l • use prudence in selecting your problem (ie, v e r y small, almost trivial) s t a r t t o f o r m u l a t e y o u r p r o b l e m as w e l e a r n t h e program C.

"Building .

.

D.

Your

First

Expert

System"

The Text - learning guide/manual for the expert system MICRO-PS - text divided into four parts: • Part 1 - Chapters 1-3 = I n t r o d u c t i o n • P a r t 2 - C h a p t e r s 4 - 9 = H o w to • Part 3 = MICRO-PS Manual • Part 4 = Glossary & Appendices

Tool,

The Program = MICRO-PS - s c a l e d down, t r a i n i n g v e r s i o n of K n o w l e d g e Engineering S y s t e m (KES) w i t h s i g n i f i c a n t limitations (see A p p e n d i x C, p a g e 277) - "PS" = P r o d u c t i o n System, means built on if-then rules - w e ' l l b r u s h t h r o u g h P a r t 1 a n d p a r t of P a r t 2 t h i s w e e k , n e x t w e e k w e ' l l l o o k at t h e r e s t o f P a r t 2, t h e n y o u a r e o n y o u r o w n ( e x p l a i n computer lab procedures/hours of operation)

Building

Your

First

Expert

2-25

System

Expert

Computer

i.

Systems

Lesson

Guide

Review a.

2.

Instructor

An Expert System (VG VI-I) - review parts (include Parser) - d e f i n e D o m a i n E x p e r t (as o p p o s e d t o K B A ) = expertise behind Expert System, can be p e r s o n , b o o k , etc. - define Knowledge Engineer = writes program

b.

Hallmarks of a n E x p e r t S y s t e m (VG V I - 2 ) - RELIABILITY = to keep user's confidence INTELLIGENT QUESTIONING = . explain Attribute = a variable or data element, basic building block of knowledge base explain Attachment = n o t e " a t t a c h e d " to various parts of your MICRO-PS program • how? (VG VI-3) - JUSTIFYING CONCLUSIONS = . enables user to assess rationality of advice • helps user reason like expert . powerful for debugging during development - NONNUMERICAL REASONING = f u l l s y s t e m c a n do both USER FRIENDLINESS = • c r i t e r i a = m i n i m a l t i m e to l e a r n , r e l e a r n , and use . features: -helps determine if a p p r o p r i a t e for user's problem -determines what information needed -explains questions -leads user to appropriate answer

c.

Most

Building a .

Suitable an E x p e r t

Applications System

with

(VG V I - 4 ) MICRO-PS

Demonstrate "DEMOI" - for illustration use very limited, non-user friendly Expert System which advises user how to change default disk drives - with DOS loaded type "A>micro-ps demol" - step students through options on their micros w i l l u s e D E M O I to i l l u s t r a t e MICRO-PS's structure/features

2-26

Expert

Computer

Systems

b.

Instructor

Lesson

Guide

S t e p s t o B u i l d an E x p e r t S y s t e m (VG VI-5) ANALYSIS = analyse goals, source(s) of knowledge, knowledge level of user, potential gain, difficulty to build and test, methodology to use DESIGN = describe knowledge base . f o u r s e c t i o n s of M I C R O - P S knowledge base: -THE ATTACHMENTS SECTION = to make program more user friendly -THE ATTRIBUTES SECTION = declare attributes . Attribute Hierarchy (VG V I - 6 ) -Input Attribute = value from user -Inferred Attribute = value from rules -THE RULES SECTION = lay out relationship between attributes -THE ACTION SECTION • Action Flow Chart for DEMOI (VG V I - 7 ) . OK, h o w d o e s it w o r k ?

1-Action Sections instructs Inference Engine (IE) to "Obtain" attribute (Operation) which becomes goal 2-IE checks to s e e if v a l u e of O p e r a t i o n known 3 - i f not, IE l o o k s f o r r u l e ( s ) w i t h O p e r a t i o n as consequent (if n o n e , a s s u m e s O p e r a t i o n = Input Attribute and asks for value) 4 - t h e n IE t e s t s r u l e ( s ) , if a n t e c e d e n t unknown sets new intermediate goal of antecedent, etc. - IMPLEMENT = write Action Sections - VERIFY = test ALL c.

One i)

2)

"Section"

at

Attributes,

Rules

and

possibilities

a Time

The Attributes Section u s e d to d e c l a r e v a r i a b l e s (attributes) to b e u s e d in s y s t e m (ie, e s t a b l i s h set of storage locations which have names, types, and value sets) - an a t t r i b u t e m u s t h a v e a u n i q u e n a m e , up to i0 w o r d s w i t h i0 l e t t e r s / n u m b e r s - two types, nonnumeric (smlt) and interger (int) syntax/example (VG V I - 8 ) in DEMOI (VG V I - 9 ) - limitations (VG V I - 1 0 ) The Rules Section - parts = antecedent consequent

2-27

- if p a r t - then part

Expert

Computer

Systems

Instructor

Lesson

Guide

m u s t h a v e u n i q u e name, up to i0 w o r d s w i t h i0 l e t t e r s / n u m b e r s - Rational Indicators and Connectors (VG V I - I I ) syntax/example (VG V I - 1 2 ) - o r d e r r u l e s in s a m e p a t t e r n e s t a b l i s h e d in A t t r i b u t e S e c t i o n ( e x c e p t i o n p a g e 125) - non Attribute user responses = " U N K N O W N " & "NONE" (see p a g e 216) in D E M O I (VG V I - 1 3 ) -

-

-

3) The A c t i o n S e c t i o n - C o m m a n d s = askfor, m e s s a g e , stop, obtain, d i s p l a y , etc. - s y n t a x d i f f e r (see S e c t i o n 5, p 2 2 7 ) DEMOI commands (VG V I - 1 4 ) • "obtain" command -syntax - " o b t a i n " in l o w e r c a s e - must match & appear in c o n s e q u e n t of at l e a s t o n e r u l e . "message" command -syntax - " m e s s a g e " in l o w e r c a s e -each line enclosed by double quotes - t e x t l i m i t e d to f o u r l i n e s -stand alone message ends with period • "display" command -syntax - " d i s p l a y v a l u e " in l o w e r c a s e - < a t t r i b u t e n a m e > e n c l o s e d in p a r e n t h e s e s , m u s t m a t c h , and a p p e a r as c o n s e q u e n t of at l e a s t o n e r u l e -

4)

E. SYSTEM,

Next Week P A R T II

Summary

- SESSION

of S e c t i o n s

VII

- BUILDING

(VG V I - 1 3 )

A SMALL

EXPERT

- w i l l h a v e o p p o r t u n i t y to b e g i n w o r k i n g o n y o u r f i r s t e x p e r t s y s t e m d u r i n g t h e n e x t c l a s s p e r i o d so a n y p r e p a r a t i o n b e t w e e n n o w and t h e n w i l l be t i m e w e l l spent

2. Demonstrations. D E M O I (Tom Nagy, D i c k Gault, a n d M o n i c a Nagy, B u i l d i n g Y o u r F i r s t E x p e r t System, A s h t o n - T a t e P u b l i s h i n g G r o u p 1985, p p 4 3 - 4 5

2-28

Expert Computer

3.

Practical

Systems

Exercises.

I n s t r u c t o r L e s s o n Guide

None

2-29

Expert

Computer

Systems

Instructor

Lesson

Guide

13.140-5/SH S P R I N G 86

MS

DOS

GETTING

GOUGE

STARTED

i. left 2. 3. side . 4.

P l a c e the MS DOS (or W o r k i n g ) D i s k i n t o D i s k D r i v e A (on h a n d side). C l o s e the d o o r o n the d i s k drive. T u r n o n c o m p u t e r ( O N / O F F s w i t c h is l o c a t e d o n the l e f t h a n d of the c o m p u t e r ) . after some buzzing and whirling, A n s w e r c u e s (ie, time, date), p r e s s i n g R e t u r n K e y a f t e r each. Note: s y n t a x for t i m e is < h o u r > : < m i n u t e s > s y n t a x for d a t e is < m o n t h > - < d a y > - < y e a r > y o u h a v e s u c c e s s f u l l y "booted" the O p e r a t i n g S y s t e m (MS DOS in t h i s case) w h e n the p r o m p t "A>" appears. You may now i n s t r u c t the c o m p u t e r to e x e c u t e a n y DOS c o m m a n d or to r u n a program• Note: t h i s p r o c e d u r e m a y be e m p l o y e d to b o o t t h e O p e r a t i n g S y s t e m d u r i n g s u b s e q u e n t s e s s i o n s by s u b s t i t u t i n g y o u r M I C R O - P S W o r k i n g D i s k for t h e MS DOS d i s k in the a b o v e p r o c e d u r e .

FORMATING

i 2. 3. 4. key. •

Place Place Close After

t h e MS DOS d i s k a b l a n k d i s k in both disk drive the p r o m p t "A>"

A WORKING

DISK 1

in D i s k D r i v e A. D i s k D r i v e B. doors. t y p e " F O R M A T B: /S"

and press

the

return

Note: the "/S" p o r t i o n of the DOS F o r m a t C o m m a n d i n s t r u c t s the c o m p u t e r to c o p y the O p e r a t i n g S y s t e m o n t o the d i s k b e i n g formated. T h i s w i l l a l l o w the u s e r to b o o t the O p e r a t i n g S y s t e m w i t h o u t t h e u s e of the DOS D i s k d u r i n g f u t u r e o p e r a t i o n s (see N o t e i). 5. F o l l o w t h e cues. the p r o m p t "A>" w i l l r e t u r n w h e n the b l a n k d i s k h a s b e e n formated. 6. L a b e l the n e w l y f o r m a t e d d i s k " M I C R O - P S W O R K I N G COPY"

2-30

Expert

Computer

Systems

MS DOS

COPYING

Gouge

A FILE

i. P l a c e the MS DOS D i s k in D i s k D r i v e A a n d y o u r W o r k i n g D i s k in D r i v e B. Note: the f o l l o w i n g p r o c e d u r e s w i l l c o p y a f i l e o n t h e d i s k in D r i v e A to the d i s k in D r i v e B. 2. C l o s e b o t h d i s k d r i v e doors• 3. A f t e r t h e p r o m p t "A>" t y p e " C O P Y A : < f i l e n a m e > B:" a n d p r e s s the r e t u r n key. Note: in p l a c e of " < f i l e n a m e > " in the a b o v e c o m m a n d t y p e the n a m e of t h e f i l e y o u w i s h to c o p y i n c l u d i n g t h e e x t e n s i o n . F o r e x a m p l e , if y o u w a n t to c o p y the file " E D L I N . C O M " t y p e " C O P Y A : E D L I N . C O M B:". 4. T h e c o m p u t e r w i l l cue y o u w h e n the f i l e has b e e n c o p i e d .

COPYING

A DISK

i. P l a c e the o r i g i n a l M I C R O - P S D i s k in D i s k D r i v e A. 2. P l a c e y o u r W o r k i n g D i s k in D i s k D r i v e B. 3. C l o s e the d o o r s o n b o t h d i s k drives. 4. A f t e r the p r o m p t "A>" t y p e " C O P Y A : * . * B:" a n d p r e s s t h e r e t u r n key. Note: t h i s c o m m a n d w i l l c o p y all the f i l e s o n t h e d i s k in D r i v e A o n t o t h e d i s k in D r i v e B. 5. F o l l o w t h e cues. 6. R e t u r n t h e o r i g i n a l M I C R O - P S d i s k to its cover. • y o u n o w h a v e a w o r k i n g c o p y of the M I C R O - P S d i s k w h i c h s h o u l d be u s e d on all s u b s e q u e n t i n s t r u c t i o n s .

EXECUTING

A MICRO-PS

KNOWLEDGE

BASE

i. P l a c e M I C R O - P S W o r k i n g D i s k in D r i v e A. 2. A f t e r t h e p r o m p t "A>" t y p e " M I C R O - P S < f i l e n a m e > " a n d p r e s s the r e t u r n key. Note: in p l a c e of " < f i l e n a m e > " in the a b o v e c o m m a n d t y p e the n a m e of t h e M I C R O - P S K n o w l e d g e B a s e y o u w i s h to e x e c u t e . For e x a m p l e , if y o u w a n t to e x e c u t e the K n o w l e d g e B a s e n a m e d " D E M O I " t y p e " M I C R O - P S D E M O I " and p r e s s the r e t u r n key. 3. To s t o p the e x e c u t i o n of a M I C R O - P S K n o w l e d g e B a s e t y p e "stop" a f t e r the M I C R O - P S p r o m p t "= ?".

2-31

Expert

Computer

Systems

MS DOS Gouge

CONSTRUCT/EDIT

A KNOWLEDGE

BASE U S I N G

EDLIN 2

i. P l a c e y o u r M I C R O - P S W o r k i n g D i s k into D i s k D r i v e A. Ensure the d i s k d r i v e door are closed. Note: this p r o c e d u r e s o n l y w o r k s if the file " E D L I N . C O M " and the file c o n t a i n i n g y o u r K n o w l e d g e Base are on y o u r w o r k i n g disk. 2. A f t e r the p r o m p t "A>" type "EDLIN " and p r e s s the r e t u r n key. Note: in p l a c e of "" in the above c o m m a n d type the name of the K n o w l e d g e Base y o u w i s h to c r e a t e / e d i t . For example, if y o u w i s h to c r e a t e / e d i t a K n o w l e d g e B a s e n a m e d "First" type "EDLIN FIRST" and press the r e t u r n key. 3. U s e the I n s e r t Lines C o m m a n d (see E D L I N C o m m a n d h a n d o u t ) to b e g i n e n t e r i n g y o u r first K n o w l e d g e Base. That is, t y p e "I" a f t e r the E D L I N p r o m p t ("*") and press the r e t u r n key. The c o m p u t e r will a u t o m a t i c a l l y n u m b e r the lines of y o u r K n o w l e d g e Base. 4. For s u b s e q u e n t editing, any of the E D L I N c o m m a n d s (see E D L I N C o m m a n d h a n d o u t ) m a y be e x e c u t e d by t y p i n g it after the E D L I N p r o m p t ("*"). For example, to list an e x i s t i n g file type "L" after the p r o m p t "*" and press the r e t u r n key. Note: the End Edit C o m m a n d ("E") stores the file b e f o r e r e t u r n i n g to the O p e r a t i n g System. The Quit Edit C o m m a n d ("Q") r e t u r n s to the O p e r a t i n g S y s t e m w i t h o u t s t o r i n g the file W H I C H COULD R E S U L T IN LOST WORK. Be careful!

TO

PARSE

A KNOWLEDGE

BASE

i. P l a c e y o u r M I C R O - P S W o r k i n g D i s k (with the n e w K n o w l e d g e Base) in D i s k D r i v e A and close the door. 2. F o l l o w the i n s t r u c t i o n s for E x e c u t i n g A K n o w l e d g e B a s e listed above. For example, to parse the K n o w l e d g e Base First type " M I C R O - P S FIRST" and press the r e t u r n key. 3. The M I C R O - P S P a r s e r will d i s p l a y error m e s s a g e s as it a t t e m p t s to e x e c u t e the n e w K n o w l e d g e Base. Note: an e x a m p l e of p a r s i n g a n e w K n o w l e d g e B a s e c a n be found in the N a g y text (Figure 5-21 p65). 4. F o l l o w the cues. Note: it will be h e l p f u l to have a p r i n t e d c o p y of y o u r K n o w l e d g e B a s e to r e f e r to as it is b e i n g parsed.

2-32

Expert

Computer

Systems

PRINTING

MS

A KNOWLEDGE

DOS

Gouge

BASE

i. E n s u r e the p r i n t e r is t u r n e d on ( O N / O F F s w i t c h l o c a t e d o n r i g h t h a n d s i d e of p r i n t e r ) , t h a t it is c o n n e c t e d to t h e c o m p u t e r y o u are using, and t h a t it is n o t out of paper. 2. P l a c e y o u r M I C R O - P S W o r k i n g D i s k in D i s k D r i v e A a n d c l o s e the door. 3. W h i l e h o l d i n g the C o n t r o l K e y ( " C t r l " ) p r e s s the l e t t e r "P" Note: p r e s s i n g the " C t r l - P " k e y s s i m u l t a n i o u s l y a c t s as a t o g g l e s w i t c h to t u r n the p r i n t e r ' s e c h o f u n c t i o n o n a n d off. 4. A f t e r the p r o m p t "A>" t y p e "TYPE < f i l e n a m e > " , w h e r e " < f i l e n a m e > " is e x p l a i n e d above. Note: the D O S c o m m a n d "TYPE" c a n be u s e d to d i s p l a y a n y file. the p r i n t e r w i l l e c h o w h a t e v e r is d i s p l a y e d o n t h e m o n i t o r . 5. P r e s s " C t r l - P " to e x i t the e c h o mode. Note: t h e " P r t S c " k e y c a n a l w a y s be u s e d to o b t a i n a h a r d c o p y of t h e c u r r e n t d i s p l a y o n the m o n i t o r ( " P r t S c " w o r k s in c o n j u n c t i o n w i t h the "Shift" key).

2-33

Expert C o m p u t e r S y s t e m s

MS DOS Gouge

13.140-7/IG S P R I N G 86

EXPERT

SUBJECT:

COMPUTER SYSTEMS INSTRUCTOR

FOR GOVERNMENT LESSON GUIDE

EXECUTIVES

S E S S I O N VII - B U I L D I N G A SMALL E X P E R T SYSTEM,

GOALS

PART

II

& OBJECTIVES

i. Purpose. To a d v a n c e the s t u d e n t s k n o w l e d g e of the M I C R 0 - P S e x p e r t s y s t e m Tool and to p r o v i d e the s t u d e n t an o p p o r t u n i t y to start w o r k i n g on h i s / h e r first e x p e r t s y s t e m w h i l e the i n s t r u c t o r is i m m e d i a t e l y a v a i l a b l e for c o n s u l t a t i o n . 2.

Objectives

A. To a d v a n c e the s t u d e n t s k n o w l e d g e of the M I R C O - P S s y s t e m Tool.

expert

B. To p r o v i d e the student an o p p o r t u n i t y to b e g i n w o r k i n g on h i s / h e r first expert system. C. To c o n t i n u e to explore the d i f f i c u l t i e s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h the d e v e l o p m e n t of an expert s y s t e m t h r o u g h p r a c t i c a l a p p l i c a t i o n .

COORDINATION

i.

Student Handouts.

2.

Classroom Setup Requirements A.

None

Viewgraph

B. T w e l v e 16-bit m i c r o p r o c e s s o r s , p r i n t e r s (for the i n s t r u c t o r ) in s p e c i f i e d classroom. 3.

IRC S u p p o r t R e q u i r e m e n t s .

C o m p u t e r setup.

2-:94

and one p r o j e c t o r

Expert

Computer

Systems

Instructor

L E S S O N

i.

Lesson

Guide

O U T L I N E

Lesson A.

Review

DEMOI

B.

Attachments

(VG VI-13) and

The

Attachment

Section

.

General - Attachments = groupings of text which can be " a t t a c h e d " to t h e v a r i o u s p a r t s o f M I C R 0 - P S p r o g r a m to: • provide information to u s e r • m a k e y o u r ES m o r e u s a b l e a n d v a l u a b l e to user - f i r s t of t h e f o u r s e c t i o n s i n a M I C R O - P S knowledge base (Attachments, Attributes, Rules, Action), only section not required in KB f o r m a t s a m e as o t h e r s e c t i o n s (will cover in a minute) - two types of attachments = Nondeclared/Declared

.

Nondeclared Attachments - "question" Attachment • a v a i l a b l e e v e n if k n o w l e d g e base does not have an A t t a c h m e n t S e c t i o n . a l l o w s t e x t t o be a t t a c h e d t o a n a t t r i b u t e or value name in the Attribute Section = text displayed to user rather than name • syntax/example (VG VII-l) -placed in Attribute Section -enclosed in square brackets - w o r d " q u e s t i o n " in l o w e r c a s e followed by colon -each line of text, including question mark, e n c l o s e d in d o u b l e q u o t a t i o n m a r k s - t e x t u p t o 79 c h a r a c t e r s including brackets -note use of commas and periods for value attachements (if m o r e t h e n 1 a t t a c h m e n t , "question" Attachment first without punctuation between consecutive attachments)

.

Declared Attachments - c a n " a t t a c h " t e x t to n a m e s , v a l u e s , a n d r u l e s d e c l a r e ( n a m e s of) a t t a c h m e n t s (except "question" Attachments) in Attachment Section, text of attachment in o t h e r s e c t i o n ( s )

2-35

Expert

Computer

Systems

Some .

Lesson

Guide

syntax/example (VG VII-2) • n a m e = 1 w o r d o f I0 l e t t e r s / n u m b e r s with no punctuation • maximums = i0 a t t a c h m e n t s , 3 per attribute/ value/rule, 4 l i n e s per, t o t a l t e x t i 0 0 l i n e s • i n r u l e s = f o l l o w r u l e n a m e b e f o r e "if" names must match declared name in Attachment Section • note can provide user format for calling attachment and attachment n a m e as p a r t o f "question" attachment

-

C.

Instructor

User

Friendly

Features

Many - for example: - ability to input any user command (ie, n e x t , continue, s t o p , d i s p l a y , j u s t i f y ) at a n y p r o m p t parser error messages m a n y f e a t u r e s c a n b e u s e d b y K B A to i n c r e a s e -

-

.

Error Detection - informs user when inappropriate is c h o s e n example (VG V I I - 3 )

value

to

question

-

D.

More .

On

Commands/Knowledge

Base

Structure

"message" Command Revisited - as g r e e t i n g s or instruction message - could be used to help user to decide usefulness of system or to issue instructions to user example (VG V I I - 4 ) place in Action Section word "message" in lowercase • each line enclosed in double quotation marks • l i m i t of 4 l i n e s • end with period, comma, or "endif" -

.

"askfor" Command - used to display unattached attribute mentioned i n a n y r u l e ) to u s e r - u s e d in A c t i o n S e c t i o n syntax/example (VG VII-5) • word "askfor" in lowercase attribute name matches • end with period, comma, or "endif"

(not

-

.

"justify" and "display" Commands - enables user to justify and/or display conclusions/advice, system will reply with

2-36

Expert

Computer

Systems

Lesson

Guide

message that identifies the rule name and its f i n a l v a l u e ( d i s p l a y c o m m a n d c a n t h e n b e u s e to display the appropriate rule) a n d / o r K B A c a n u s e to i n c r e a s e u s e r c o n f i d e n c e in system syntax/example (VG VII-6) • w o r d " j u s t i f y " a n d " d i s p l a y " in l o w e r c a s e • variable/rule name must be declared, match, and be d e t e r m i n e d b y a r u l e in t h e R u l e s S e c t i o n

-

-

4.

Instructor

Commands a .

for

Screen

Control

(VG VII-7)

Mark Command - u s e d in s y s t e m w h i c h w i l l b e u s e d r e p e a t e d l y - c o m m a n d s in A c t i o n S e c t i o n b e f o r e " m a r k " executed only once syntax = lowercase followed by comma, percent sign, period, or "endif" -

b.

c. .

Wait and Pause Commands - used to control amount screen - syntax = ibid Example

=

(see

of

information

on

viewgraph)

"if-then-endif" and "if-then-else-endif" Structures - used in Action Section like rule in Rule Section but consequent is a c o m m a n d o r s e r i e s o f c o m m a n d s syntax/example (VG V I I - 8 ) • a t t r i b u t e names~values m u s t b e d e c l a r e d a n d match • consequent can have series of commands separated by commas • last command followed by "endif" • preferred method = complicated "if-then-elseendif" can be accomplished w i t h s e r i e s of "ifthen-endif" statements (VG V I I - 9 ) -

E. F. SYSTEM,

G.

Demonstrate

DEMO2

(VG V I I - 1 0 )

Next Week - SESSION VIII - BUILDING A SMALL EXPERT P A R T III - lab session to afford student opportunity to write first expert system (review Computer Lab hours/ procedures) Lab

Session

= remainder

of

study

2-37

period

for

individual

student

Expert Computer Systems

Instructor Lesson Guide

2. Demonstrations. DEM02 (Tom Nagy, Dick Gault, and Monica Nagy, Building Your First Expert System, Ashton-Tate Publishing Group 1985, pp72-95) 3.

Practical Exercises.

None

2-38

Expert Computer

Systems

I n s t r u c t o r L e s s o n Guide

13.140-8/IG S P R I N G 86

EXPERT

SUBJECT:

COMPUTER SYSTEMS INSTRUCTOR

S E S S I O N VIII

FOR GOVERNMENT LESSON GUIDE

EXECUTIVES

- B U I L D I N G A SMALL E X P E R T SYSTEM, GOALS

PART

III

& OBJECTIVES

i. Purpose. To p r o v i d e the student an o p p o r t u n i t y to start w o r k i n g on h i s / h e r first e x p e r t s y s t e m w h i l e the i n s t r u c t o r is i m m e d i a t e l y a v a i l a b l e for c o n s u l t a t i o n . 2.

Objectives

A. his/her

To p r o v i d e the student an o p p o r t u n i t y to b e g i n w o r k i n g first e x p e r t system.

B. To c o n t i n u e to e x p l o r e the d i f f i c u l t i e s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h the d e v e l o p m e n t of an e x p e r t s y s t e m t h r o u g h p r a c t i c a l application.

COORDINATION

i.

Student Handouts.

2.

Classroom Setup Requirements A.

None

Viewgraph

B. T w e l v e 16-bit m i c r o p r o c e s s o r s , p r i n t e r s (for the i n s t r u c t o r ) in s p e c i f i e d classroom. 3.

IRC S u p p o r t R e q u i r e m e n t s .

C o m p u t e r setup.

2-39

and one p r o j e c t o r

Expert

Computer

Systems

Instructor

LESSON

i.

3.

Guide

OUTLINE

Lesson A.

Computer

B.

Next

Week

Lab

Session

- SESSION

IX

- GUEST

TITAN



Lesson

Demonstrations. Practical

None

Exercises.

None

2-40

SPEAKER/DEMONSTRATION

FROM

Expert

Computer

Systems

Instructor

Lesson

Guide

13.140-I0/IG S P R I N G 86

EXPERT

SUBJECT:

COMPUTER SYSTEMS INSTRUCTOR

SESSION

FOR GOVERNMENT LESSON GUIDE

EXECUTIVES

X - THE G A M E AND THE P L A Y E R S

GOALS

& OBJECTIVES

i. Purpose. To f a m i l i a r i z e the s t u d e n t w i t h the p o t e n t i a l social, economic, and m i l i t a r y i m p l i c a t i o n s as well as the p o s s i b l e u t i l i t y of the field of a r t i f i c i a l i n t e l l i g e n c e . 2.

Objectives.

A. To i n t r o d u c e the game, the stakes and the p l a y e r s w h a t has b e e n c a l l e d the "war" for AI supremacy.

in

B. To g i v e s e n i o r e x e c u t i v e s an a p p r e c i a t i o n for f u t u r e p o t e n t i a l a p p l i c a t i o n of a r t i f i c i a l i n t e l l i g e n c e t e c h n o l o g y . C. To e x p l o r e c u r r e n t and future a p p l i c a t i o n s for this t e c h n o l o g y w i t h e m p h a s i s on future m i l i t a r y a p p l i c a t i o n s .

COORDINATION

i.

Student Handouts.

2.

Classroom

3.

IRC Support

None

Setup Requirements. Requirements.

Viewgraph

None

LESSON

OUTLINE

2-41

new

Expert

i.

Computer

Systems

Instructor

Lesson

Guide

Lesson A.

The Game i.

The

Fifth Generation

Challenge

- i s s u e d in a u t u m n 1981 b y J a p a n e s e M i n i s r y of I n t e r n a l T r a d e a n d I n d u s t r y (MITI) b y l a u n c h i n g I n s t i t u t e for N e w G e n e r a t i o n C o m p u t e r T e c h n o l o g y (ICOT) - i n i t i a l $2 m i l l i o n 1982 b u d g e t , $ 4 5 0 m i l l i o n i0 year program - goal = Knowledge Information Processing System (KIPS) - s p r i n g 1982 = 40 c o m p u t e r "whiz k i d s " ( a v e r a g e age 30) s t a r t e d w o r k M a r c h 1983 = E d w a r d A. F e i g e n b a u m a n d P a m e l a M c C o r d i c k p u b l i s h e d "The F i f t h G e n e r a t i o n , Artificial Intelligence and Japan's Computer C h a l l e n g e to the W o r l d " p u b l i c i z i n g c h a l l e n g e - J a p a n e s e g o v e r n m e n t t o t a l a l l o c a t i o n of c a p i t a l for c o m p u t e r d e v e l o p m e n t = 8 4 . 5 7 b i l l i o n -

2.

At

stake

- w a r in AI s u p r e m a c y w i l l be w o n b e t w e e n n o w and e n d of 2 0 t h c e n t u r y d o m e s t i c sales, jobs, p r e s t i g e i m p l i c a t i o n to n a t i o n a l d e f e n s e . v a l u e of the m a r k e t (VG X-l) - could revolutionalize both warfare and civilian e c o n o m y in n e x t c e n t u r y -

-

-

3.

The R e s p o n s e - N a t i o n a l C o r p o r a t e R e s e a r c h A c t of 1 9 8 4 = t i m e l y r e l a x a t i o n of r e a l and p e r c e i v e d b a r r i e r s to corporative research - s w e e t e n e r = 25 p e r c e n t t a x c r e d i t g i v i n g c o m p a n i e s i n c e n t i v e to b l o s t e r h i g h t e c h R & D - t o t a l U.S. h i g h t e c h R&D b u d g e t 1983 $ 6 b i l l i o n ( m o s t l y c o m p a n i e s , IBM, DEC, etc) 1984 97 b i l l i o n (IAW N a t i o n a l S c i e n c e F o u n d a t i o n ) 1985 107 b i l l i o n (IAW B a t t e l l e M e m o r i a l I n s t i t u t e ) - a p p l i c a b i l i t y of AI to m i l i t a r y s i g n i f i c a n t , DOD plays single most influential role setting advanced computer goals and establishing R&D projects 1984 50% of 8 1 0 4 m i l l i o n in f e d e r a l f u n d i n g f o r

2-42

Expert

Computer

Systems

Instructor

Lesson

Guide

b a s i c c o m p u t e r r e s e a r c h f r o m DOD 60% of $ 1 4 6 m i l l i o n for a p p l i e d c o m p u t e r research from DOD B .

The Players .

(VG X-2)

ICOT - Institute Technology

for N e w G e n e r a t i o n

Computer

- already discussed Japanese Fifth Generation Project - eight companies, heavily supported by government - H i t a c h i , N i p p o n E l e c t r i c , M i t s u b i s h i , Sharp, T o s h i b a , F u j i t s u , Oki Japanese goal both social and economic - p r o m i s e d a p p r o x i m a t e l y $42 m i l l i o n / y e a r , a c t u a l : . 1984 822 m i l l i o n • 1985 $20 m i l l i o n • 1 9 8 6 e s t i m a t e S21 m i l l i o n -

.

MCC - Microelectronic Corporation

and C o m p u t e r

Technology

- c r e a t e d to m a i n t a i n U.S. t e c h n o l o g y p r e e m i n e n c e a n d i n t e r n a t i o n a l c o m p e t i t i v e n e s s in m i c r o electronics and computers - c o n s o r t i u m of a p p r o x i m a t e l y 21 U.S. c o m p a n i e s including Boeing, Eastman Kodak, Martin Marietta, SM, NCR, C o n t r o l Data, D i g i t a l E q u i p m e n t f o u n d e d Jan 198S, a p p r o x i m a t e l y $ 5 0 e m p l o y e e s C E O = A D M B o b b y R. Inman, U S N (ret) g o v e r n e d by B o a r d of D i r e c t o r s c o m p o s e d of r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s of e a c h s h a r e h o l d e r c o m p a n y - s t o c k h o l d e r c o m p a n i e s h a v e e x c l u s i v e r i g h t s to p r o p r i e t a r y i n f o r m a t i o n for S y e a r s t h e n M C C l i c e n s e r i g h t s to o t h e r u s e r s - c o r p o r a t e o b j e c t i v e s (VG X-S) - programs = four long-range advanced technology p r o g r a m s are i n t e n d e d to m a k e s i g n i f i c a n t technology advances within 5-10 years (VG X-4) . P A C K A G I N G = a d v a n c e the s t a t e - o f - t h e - a r t in semiconductor packaging and interconnect technology • SOFTWARE TECHNOLOGY = develop new techniques, p r o c e d u r e s , and t o o l s t h a t c a n be u s e d to i m p r o v e t h e p r o d u c t i v i t y of t h e s o f t w a r e d e v e l o p m e n t p r o c e s s 1-2 o r d e r s of m a g n i t u d e . VLSI/COMPUTER-AIDED DESIGN = improve computera i d e d d e s i g n t e c h n o l o g y a n d d e v e l o p an i n t e g r a t e d set of t o o l s t h a t c a n h a v e -

-

-

2-43

Expert

Computer

Systems

Instructor

Lesson

Guide

p a r t i c u l a r a p p l i c a t i o n to c o m p l e x s y s t e m s a n d the very complex VLSI chips from which they w i l l be b u i l t • ADVANCED COMPUTER ARCHITECTURE = the most complex and ambitious program, 10-year effort w i l l f o c u s on: P A R E L L E L P R O C E S S I N G = d e v e l o p l a n g u a g e s and a r c h i t e c t u r e s to a l l o w c o m p u t e r s to p e r f o r m t a s k s s i m u l t a n e o u s l y i n s t e a d of s e q u e n t i a l l y DATABASE SYSTEM MANAGEMENT = improve database d e s i g n , s t o r a g e m e t h o d s , and c a p a c i t i e s to permit flexible storage and faster retrieval of b r o a d e r r a n g e of c o m p l e x i n f o r m a t i o n HUMAN FACTORS TECHNOLOGY = improve manm a c h i n e i n t e r f a c e u s i n g i m p r o v e d v o i c e or c h a r a c t e r r e c o g n i t i o n or n a t u r a l l a n g u a g e AI/KNOWLEDGE-BASED SYSTEMS = develop new ways to r e p r e s e n t h u m a n k n o w l e d g e and t h o u g h t c o n c e p t s as w e l l as n e w e n g i n e e r i n g m o d e l s a n d t o o l s to a p p l y h u m a n e x p e r t i s e to w i d e r a n g e of p r o b l e m s . all p r o g r a m s are i n t e r e l a t e d a n d f o c u s u p o n the last, m o s t i m p o r t a n t p r o g r a m : a r t i f i c i a l intelligence -

-

-

-

3.

DARPA

- Defense

Advanced

Research

Project

Agency

- f o u n d e d as A R P A in 1958 ( r e s u l t of S p u t n i k ) w i t h m i s s i o n to e n s u r e U.S. w o u l d n e v e r a g a i n be c a u g h t so f l a t - f o o t e d b y an a d v e r s a r y a p p r o x i m a t e l y 125 e m p o y e e s , no labs, r e l a t i v e small budget 1985 8700 million • 1986 estimate 8776 million v e n t u r e c a p i t a l i s t s of the D e f e n s e D e p a r t m e n t - s e t s p a c e a n d d i r e c t i o n for d e v e l o p m e n t of f u t u r e c o m p u t e r t e c h n o l o g y b y d i s t r i b u t i n g f u n d s to university, company and national laboratories - MIT computer professor (Dertouzous), "70-80 p e r c e n t of m a j o r d i s c o v e r i e s in c o m u t e r s c i e n c e c a n be t r a c e d to D A R P A " - s u c c e s s = p h a s e d - a r r a y radar, c o m p o s i t e materials, laser holograghy forward-swept-wing aircraft - Strategic Computer Initiative • i0 y e a r R&D p u s h in s p e c i f i c c o m p u t e r t e c h n o l o g i e s t h a t w o u l d e v e n t u a l l y f i n d u s e in w i d e s p e c t r u m of m i l i t a r y (and c i v i l i a n ) engineering A N D d e v e l o p m a s s i v e i n f r a s t r u c t u r e of -

-

2-44

Expert

Computer

Systems

Instructor

Lesson

Guide

distributed research centers, supporting agencies, databases, networks, project managers • A N D to b u i l d m a s s i v e l y p a r a l l e l V L S I - b a s e d c o m p u t e r e v e n t u a l l y w i t h G a A s in n e x t i0 y e a r s ( g a l l i u m a r s e n i d e = low power, h i g h speed, r a d i a t i o n hardness) A B O U T SCI IN A M I N U T E •

.

M

O

R

E

Others a.

U.S. -

Governments

and Agencies

federal government • establishing four national supercomputer centers • C o r n e l , P r i n c e t o n , U. of Ill, a n d U. of C a l i f in San D i e g o

- National

Security

Agency

.

- M i c r o e l e c t o n i c s C e n t e r of N o r t h C a r o l i n a (MCNC) • s t a t e e f f o r t of a p p r o x i m a t e l y $43 m i l l i o n • N e i g h b o r i n g i n d u s t r i e s c o n t r i b u t i n g to t o t a l b u d g e t t h r o u g h 1985 of $50 m i l l i o n t a r g e t = V L S I d e s i g n system, a d v a n c e d silicon wafer fabrication facility, fast p r o t o t y p i n g c a p a c i t y for b u i l d i n g experimental architecture b.

Individual Ventures

Companies,

Consortia

and

Joint

- I B M = $ 2 . 5 b i l l i o n in 1983 for R & D IBM, EXXON, A T & T a n d L o c k h e e d c o o p e r a t i n g to construct supercomputer S e m i c o n d u c t o r R e s e a r c h C o o p e r a t i v e (SRC) . f o u n d e d 1981 IBM, DEC, B u r r o u g h s , C o n t r o l Data, GE, Intel, W e s t i n g h o u s e E l e c t r i c , X e r o x , o t h e r s • 1 9 8 4 b u d g e t g r e a t e r t h e n $13 b i l l i o n for "pure r e s e a r c h " • o v e r 50 c o n t r a c t s w i t h 30 u n i v e r s i t i e s , I00 faculty, 125 g r a d u a t e s t u d e n t s w o r k i n g • research areas = microstructure science, s y s t e m c o m p o n e n t s , d e s i g n tools, n e w a p p r o a c h e s to m a n u f a c t u r i n g a n d e n g i n e e r i n g -

-

c.

Other

Governments

2-45

Expert

Computer

Systems

Instructor

Lesson

Guide

- E S P R I T - E u r o p e a n S t r a t e g i c P r o g r a m m e for Research and Development . f u l l y u n d e r w a y in 1984 . C o m m o n M a r k e t f u n d s for k n o w l e d g e engineering b i d d i n g a g r e e m e n t s for p r o g r a m s m u s t i n c l u d e m e m b e r s f r o m at l e a s t t w o E u r o p e a n countries - Alvey Computer Research Program British government + member companies • Science and Engineering Research Council, a n d D e p a r t m e n t s of I n d u s t r y a n d D e f e n s e • S500 million, 5 year program (British g o v e r n m e n t = S300M, m e m b e r c o m p a n i e s = $200M) t a r g e t = VLSI, s o f t w a r e e n g i n e e r i n g , i n t e l l i g e n t k n o w l e d g e - b a s e d s y s t e m s , and user-friendly interfaces Germany $40 m i l l i o n p e r y e a r 50/50 between government

-

and industry

- A g e n c y for I n f o r m a t i o n T e c h n o l o g y F r e n c h g o v e r n m e n t "pure r e s e a r c h " • a p p r o x i m a t e l y $15 m i l l i o n f i r s t y e a r software engineering, workstation, and c o m p u t e r - a i d e d d e s i g n for V L S I -

C.

Potential .

Types Aids

Soviets • l a t e 1983 = 3 r d 5 y e a r p l a n initially $i00 million . collaboration with USSR and E u r o p e a n p a r t n e r s in C o u n c i l Mutual Assistance . claim civilian activity and initiative p o i n t e d at f i f t h g e n e r a t i o n

Military of

for

computing

6 East for E c o n o m i c not

a military

computing

Applications

Intelligent

Weapons

and Battle

Management

- collaborative = closely assist human operators . example = fighter co-pilot, battle management . a d v a n t a g e s = t i r e l e s s , r e l i e v e h u m a n of m u n d a n e tasks, no b a d days, f a s t e r

2-46

Expert

Computer

Systems

Instructor

Lesson

Guide

- autonomous

. = function without human intervention • example = smart bomb/cruise missle . advantages = survivability (in h o s t i l e , high radiation environment) . disadvantage = danger of comletely autonomous system 2.

Potential

3.

Problems

4.

Case

Application to

Study

(VG

Overcome

(VG

= DARPA's

X-5) X-6)

Strategic

Computer

Initiative

- goal = set of specific military applications that exploit new generation computing technology (VG X - 7 ) - f u n d i n g b e t w e e n $ 6 0 0 m i l l i o n to $i b i l l i o n (VG X - S ) - three projects • AUTONOMOUS LAND VEHICLE (VG X-9) - autonomous vehicle to support deep-penetration reconnaissance, r e a r area re-supply, ammunition handling, and weapons delivery PILOT'S ASSOCIATE SYSTEM (VG X-IO) - combat pilots personal assistant NAVAL BATTLE MANAGEMENT SYSTEM (VG X-II) - battle management system to aid in management of l a r g e e n t e r p r i s e D. Next F u t u r e o f AI

Week

- Guest

2.

Demonstrations.

3.

Practical

= SESSION

Speaker

XI

from

- The

DARPA

None

Exercises.

None

2-47

Military's

Role

in

the

Expert

Computer

Systems

Instructor

Lesson

Guide

13.140-12/IG S P R I N G 86

EXPERT

COMPUTER

SYSTEMS

FOR

INSTRUCTOR

SUBJECT:

SESSION

XII

i. Purpose. and to r e v i e w 2.

LESSON

- COURSE

GOALS

GOVERNMENT

EXECUTIVES

GUIDE

SUMMARY

& OBJECTIVES

To e x p l o r e the future of AI and e x p e r t and c r i t i q u e this course.

systems,

Objectives

A. To m a k e sense of the claims, future AI a p p l i c a t i o n s . B.

To e x p l o r e

future

applications

C. To i m p a r t an u n d e r s t a n d i n g f u t u r e c a p a b i l i t i e s and l i m i t a t i o n s D.

To r e v i e w

promises,

and c r i t i q u e

Student Handouts.

2.

Classroom

3.

IRC S u p p o r t

for this n e w technology.

the course.

None

Setup Requirements. Requirements.

None

None

LESSON

OUTLINE

2-48

of

of and a p p r e c i a t i o n for of e x p e r t c o m p u t e r systems.

COORDINATION

i.

and r e a l i t i e s

Expert

i.

Computer

Systems

Instructor

Lesson

Guide

Lesson A.

Advantages

and Disadvantages

of AI

(Software

A&E

1985)

- C o m p a r i s o n of N a t u r a l and A r t i f i c i a l I n t e l l i g e n c e (VG X I I - l ) H u m a n vs C o m p u t e r P r o b l e m S o l v i n g (VG X I I - 2 ) -

B.

Future

of K n o w l e d g e

Systems

(Paul

Harmon,

David

King

1985) - The C o m p u t e r E V O L U T I O N (vice r e v o l u t i o n ) (VG X I I - S ) A p p l i c a t i o n s in the 1 9 8 0 ' s (VG X I I - 4 ) - M a r k e t I m p a c t of D i f f e r e n t T y p e s of S y s t e m s (VG X I I - 5 ) Large, h y b r i d and n a r r o w s y s t e m s • Professional workstations Small-scale systems - S m a r t g e n e r i c s o f t w a r e (Tools, o f f - t h e - s e l f ) - S m a r t h a r d w a r e ( i n t e g r a t e d in lab t e s t i n g , diagnosis) -

C.

Preparing

System

Revolution

keep - push

a b r e a s t of s t a t e - o f - t h e - a r t technology when chance arises

Course

Highlights

-

D.

for the K n o w l e d g e

i.

Phase

(VG X I I - 6 )

1 = Introduction

and O v e r v i e w

- hardware/software, bits/bytes - algorithm/Von Neumann architecture s t a t e - o f - t h e - a r t (VHSIC, CD, n a t u r a l l a n g u a g e interface, expert systems) - AI f a m i l y t r e e m e e t "Eliza" - data-based systems (DBMS/MIS/DSS) and knowledgebased systems (natural language, expert systems) l a n g u a g e s , Tools, s y s t e m s - e x i s t i n g s y s t e m s = d e m o n s t a t i o n s of E x p e r t E a s e and SYSEX - N a v y Lab t o u r -

-

-

2.

Phase

2 = Developing

- problem suitability six s t e p s -

2-49

an E x p e r t and

System

feasibility,

goals

Expert

Computer

Systems

Instructor

case study = XCON - built small expert system - TITAN demonstration

Lesson

Guide

-

3.

Phase

3

= The

Worldwide

using

MICRO-PS

Challenge

t h e c h a l l e n g e , stakes, r e s p o n s e - p l a y e r s = ICOT, MCC, DARPA, o t h e r s - military applications c a s e s t u d y = D A R P A ' s SCI guest lecturer = DARPA -

-

-

4.

Phase

4 = Course

mo

Review

of

F.

Course

Critique

2.

Demonstrations.

3.

Practical

Course

Summary

Objectives

None

Exercises.

None

i. T h i s a n d s u b s e q u e n t p r o c e d u r e s System has already been booted. 2. A M I C R O - P S Wordprocessing

(VG X I I - 7 )

will

Knowledge Base may also Program that will create

2-50

assume

that

the

be c o n s t r u c t e d an A S C I I file.

Operating

using

any

13.140-3/A SPRING 86

EXPERT

COMPUTER

SYSTEMS LIST

FOR

II

EXECUTIVES

OF VIEWGRAPHS

TITLE

SESSION NUMBER/DODCI NUMBER I

GOVERNMENT

1/1026 2/1027 3/1028 4/1029 5/1030 6/1031 7/1032

(Source)

Expert Computer Systems for Government Course Objectives Why Study Computer Science? Block Diagram of a Computer Evolution of the Computer Definition of Artificial Intelligence The AI Family Tree 8/1033 History of AI (Harmon Table i.i p4) 9/1034 So What's all the Hoopla about AI? 10a-c/ Current Applications of AI 1035, 1090-1091 11/1036 Potential Applications of AI 12/1037 Technical Hurdles Yet to Overcome 1/1038 2/1039 3/1040 4a-c/ 1041-1043 5/1045 6/1046 7/1047 8/1048

9/1049 10/1050 11/1051 12/1052 13/1053 14/1054 15/1055 16/1056 17/1057

Executive

Computer Aided Decision Making . . By Any Other Name . . Goals of Expert Systems Common Properties, Characteristics and Features of Expert Systems Overview of Human Information Processing System (Harmon Fig 3.1 p23) Divergent and Convergent Reasoning Definition of Expertise Architecture of Knowledge-based Expert Systems (Harmon Fig 4.1 p34) Knowledge Base Knowledge Strategies for Representing Knowledge Semantic Network (Harmon Fig 4.2 p36) Object-Attribute-Value Triplet (Harmon Figs 4.4, 4.6, and 4.7 p39-40) Rules (Harmon p42 bottom) Frames (Harmon Fig 4.12 p44) Semantic Nets, O-A-V Triplets and Frames (Harmon Fig 4.15 p47) Inference Engines Search Strategies (Harmon Fig 5.7 p57) Problem Domain of Existing Knowledge Engineering Techniques (Harmon Fig 5.8 p59)

3-1

Expert Computer

III

1/1058 2/1059 3/1060 4/1061 5/i062

V

VI

1/1063 2a-b/ 1064-1065 3/1066 4/1067 5/1068 6/1089

1/1092 2/1093 3/1094 4/i095 5/i096 6/1097 7/1098 8/1099 9/ii00 i0/ii01 11/1102 12/1103 13/1104 14/1105

Systems

List of Viewgraphs

Levels of Software (Harmon Fig 7.1 and 7.2 p80-81) Tools for Building Expert Systems Advantages of Expert Tools Typical Consultation Paradigms (Harmon Fig 8.3 p95) Problem Solving Stategies (Harmon Fig 8.1 p93)

Suitability of Expert System Techniques Expert Systems Can . . Application Constraints Critical Aspects of a Problem Building a Small Expert System Overview of the Development of XCON (Harmon Fig i0.i p156)

An Expert System Hallmarks of an Expert System How Attachments Work (Nagy Fig 5-1 p39) Most Suitable Applications Design Steps Attribute Hierarchy for DEMOI (Nagy Fig 5-5 p48) Action Flow Chart for DEMOI (Nagy Fig 5-6 p49) Nonnumeric Attribute Syntax & Example (Nagy Fig 3-1 p189, Example 3-2 plg0) Attribute Section of DEMOI (Nagy Fig 5-7 p51) Illegal Keywords and Characters for MICRO-PS (Nagy Figs 5-8, 5-9 p52) Rational Indicators and Connectors Rule Syntax & Example DEMOI's Knowledge Base (Nagy Fig 5-22 p68-69) Command Syntax & Examples

3-2

Expert Computer Systems

Vll

1/1106

2a-b/ 1107-1108 3/1109 4/1110

5/1111 6a-b/ 1112-1113 7a-b/ 1114-1115 8/1116 9/1117 lOa-d/ 1118-1121 X

XlI

1/1069 2/1070 3/1071 4/1072 5/1073 6/1074 7/1075 8/1076 9a-d/ 1077-1080 10/1081 lla-b/ 1082-1083 1/1084 2/1085 3/1086 4/1087

5/1088 6/1188 7

List of Viewgraphs

Question Attachment Syntax & Example (Nagy Figs 6-8, 6-9 p79+) Declared Attachments Syntax & Examples (Nagy Example 2-6 p185-187+) Example of Error Detection (Nagy Fig 6-1 p73) Message Command Syntax & Example (Nagy Figs 6-3, 6-4 p75+) Askfor Command Syntax & Example (Nagy Example 5-1 p228-229+) Justify Command Syntax & Example (Nagy Figs 6-13, 6-14, 6-15 p83-87-) Mark, Wait, and Pause Commands Syntax & Example (Nagy Example 5-11 p253-254+) If-then-else-endif Structure Syntax & Example (Nagy Example 5-4 p233-234+) If-then-endif Structure (Nagy Example 5-5 p234-235) DEM02 Knowledge Base (Nagy Fig 6-19 p91-95)

Value of AI Market The Players MCC's Corporate Objectives MCC's Programs Military Applications Problems to Overcome DARPA's SCI Program Structure and Goals DARPA's SCI Cost Summary DARPA's Autonomous Land Vehicle DARPA's Pilot's Associate System DARPA's Naval Battle Management System

Comparison of Natural and Artificial Intelligence (Building Expert Systems p6-6) Human vs Computer Problem Solving (Building Expert Systems p6-7) The Computer EVOLUTION Applications in the 1980's (Harmon Fig 14.1 p228) Market Impact of Various Types of Systems (Harmon Fig 14.2, 3, and 4 p229, 232) Course Highlights Course Objectives (see VG I-2)

3-3

ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE and EXPERT SYSTEMS

..__._ !

/

m

,

f

IP/J '/ , '/,

DODCl 1026-85

COURSE OBJECTIVES • TO INTRODUCE THE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING FIELD OF PRACTICAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE EMPHASIZING THE MOST SUCCESSFUL AREA OF PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS--KNOWLEDGE BASED EXPERT COMPUTER SYSTEMS. • TO DEFINE,CLARIFY AND MAKE SENSE OF THE CLAIMS,PROMISES AND REALITIES

OF PRACTICAL AI APPLICATIONS. • TO ACQUIRE AN UNDERSTANDING OF AND APPRECIATION FOR THE APPLICATION, CAPABILITIES AND LIMITATIONS OF EXPERT COMPUTER SYSTEMS. • TO ACQUAINT SENIOR EXECUTIVES WITH THE STATE--OF--THE--ART IN COMPUTER TECHNOLOGY WHILE GIVING HIM/HER AN APPRECIATION FOR FUTURE POTENTIAL APPLICATIONS. • TO EXPLORE THE DIFFICULTIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EXPERT SYSTEM. • TO EXPLORE CURRENT AND FUTURE APPLICATIONS FOR THIS NEW TECHNOLOGY.

DODCJ fO~.7

WHY MANAGERS SHOULD STUDY COMPUTERS III

I

II I

I

IIIII

I

III

II

II

• TECHNOLOGY ILLITERACY vs EFFICIENT AND EFFECTIVE USE • INFORMATION AGE-COMPUTER CAN BE ANYTHING FROM TOOL TO TERRORIST DEVICE •

BUREAUCRATIC ITIOM-"INFORMATION IS POWER"

• SUN TZU (IN THE ART OF WAR)-KNOWLEDGE IS POWER AND PERMITS THE WISE SOVEREIGN AND BENEVOLENT GENERAL TO ATTACK WITHOUT RISK.CONQUER WITHOUT BLOODSHEDAND ACCOMPLISH DEEDS SURPASSING ALL OTHERS" • DUELING COMPUTERS-MY PC-GENERATED ANALYSIS CAN WHIP YOUR PC-GENERATED ANALYSIS • ABILITY TO COLLECT INFORMATION HAS OUTSTRIPPED OUR A B I L I T Y TO PROCESS IT

• KEEP FROM BECOMING A "HAS BEEN" • ANSWER YOUR 10 YEAR OLDS QUESTION ABOUT "GIGAFLIPS" DOL)CI I028-85

BLOCK DIAGRAM OF A COMPUTERS CONTROL UNIT

CENTRAL PROCESSING UNIT

(cPu)

MEMORY

I

I

INTERFACE

UNIT(S)

• HARDWARE INTERFACE - CRT/KEYBOARD

• SOFTWARE INTERFACE -HIGHER LEVEL LANGUAGES

INPUT

OUTPUT

USER

DODCl 1029-85

FIVE GENERATIONS OF COMPUTER TECHNOLOGY GENERATION TIME PERIOD

FIRST

SECOND

THIRD

1948-1956

1957-1963

1970's

TECHNOLOGY

COMPUTERS

VACUMN TUBE

ENIAC IBM 659 UNIVAC

2 KBYTE MEMORY

32 KBYTE MEMORY

NCR 501 IBM 7094 CDC 6600

INTEGRATED CIRCUIT

DEC PDP-11

2 MBYTE MEMORY

CRAY 1

TRANSISTORS

5 MIPS ~

VLSI 2 CIRCUIT FOURTH

1980s

8 MBYTE MEMORY

30 MIPS'

FIFTH

1990's(?)

CYBER 205 IBM 3 6 0 / 3 / 0 GRAY XMP IBM 308 AMDAHL 580

1 GIGA(BILLION) IPS or 1 TETRA(TRILLION)IPS • VHSIC(VERY HIGH SPEED INTEGRATED CIRCUITS) • PARALLEL ARCHITECTURE • CONCURRENT LANGUAGES, FUNCTIONAL PROGRAMMING AND SYMBOLIC PROCESSING'

MIPS MILLIONIOR MEGA) INSTRUCTIONS PER SECONDS VLSI-VERY LARGE SCALE INTEGRATION .%PEAK.SEE.PLAN AHEAD

D O D C I I030 85

ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE."A SUBFIELD OF COMPUTER SCIENCE CONCERNED WITH THE CONCEPTS AND METHODS OF SYMBOLIC INFERENCE BY A COMPUTER AND THE SYMBOLIC REPRESENTATION OF THE KNOWLEDGE TO BE USED IN MAKING INFERENCES. A FIELD AIMED AT, PURSUING THE POSSIBILITY THAT A COMPUTER CAN BE MADE TO BEHAVE IN WAYS THAT HUMANS RECOGNIZE AS INTELLIGENT BEHAVIOR IN EACH OTHER" (FEIGENBAUM and McCORDUCK)

DODCI 1031-8.5

VISUALIZATIONSYSTEMS EXPERTSYSTEMS

L

MACHINES THAT CAN RELATE VISUALLY TO THEIR ENVIRONMENTS AS HUMANS CAN.

PROGRAMS THAT MIMIC THE DECISION-MAKING AND PROBLEM SOLVING THOUGHT PROCESSES OF H U M A N EXPERTS.

ROBOTICS MACHINES THAT CAN MOVE AND RELATE TO ASPECTS AS HUMANS CAN.

NATURALLANGUAGES SYSTEMS THAT TRANSLATE ORDINARY HUMAN COMMANDS INTO LANGUAGE COMPUTER PROGRAMS CAN UNDERSTAND AND ACT ON.

THE AI FAMILY TREE (ELISABETH HORWITT 1985)

DODCl 1032-85 -----,"

HISTORY OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE PERIOD PRE--WORLD WAR II ROOTS

KEY EVENTS

FORMAL LOGIC COGNITIVE PSYCHOLOGY

POSTWAR YEARS 1945-1954 PRE-AI FIRST AI PAPERS FORMATIVE YEARS 1955-1960 INITIATION OF AI RESEARCH YEARS OF DEVELOPMENT AND REDIRECTION 1961-1970 SEARCH FOR GENERAL PROBLEM SOLVERS YEARS OF SPECIALIZATION AND SUCCESS 1971-1980 THE DISCOVERY OF KNOWLEDGE-BASED SYSTEMS THE RUSH TO APPLICATIONS 1981INTERNATIONAL COMPETITION AND COMMERCIAL VENTURES PAUL HARMON and DAVID KING

SMALL LABORATORY SYSTEMS FIRST PROTOTYPES EXPERT SYSTEM

WHOLE RANGE OF PROTOTYPE EXPERT SYSTEMS END OF DECADE-FIRST COMMERICAL USES

SEVERAL HUNDRED EXPERT SYSTEMS VENTURE CAPITAL HEAVILY INVESTED JAPANESE FIFTH GENERATION PROJECT DODCl 1(333-85

,I

WHY Ai NOW? • TECHNOLOGY BECOMING AVAILABLE-LOWER COST/AWARENESS • INCREASING COST OF HUMAN EXPERTS • QUALITY IMPROVEMENTS ANTICIPATED-FEWER MISTAKES, MORE CONSTANT • NEED-ESPECIALLY FOR MILITARY APPLICATIONS • SHORTCOMINGS OF CONVENTIONAL PROGRAMMING TECHNIQUES: (COMPATIBILITY WITH HUMAN PROBLEM SOLVING TECHNIQUES) •

MYSTIQUE-"SCIENCE MARCHES ON"



SPIN-OFFS?

DODCI 1034-85

CURRENT APPLICATIONS OF AI • EQUIPMENT FAULT DIAGNOSIS

• DISTRIBUTION PLANNING

• INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT

• COMMODITY BROKER

• MILITARY TACTICS

• TECHNICAL TRANSLATION

• MEDICAL DIAGNOSIS

• ENERGY MANAGEMENT

• CRISIS MANAGEMENT

• VEHICLE SCHEDULING

• CLAIMS ASSESSMENT

e PROCESS PLANT MONITORING (TURNER 1985)

DODCI 1035-85

CURRENT APPLICATIONS IN AI SOME EXPERT SYSTEMS

EXPERT SYSTEM MECHO TECH SPERIL CRI'I'FER PHOENIX PROSPECTOR DENDRAL CRYSALIS El_AS SYN XCON/R1 SYNCHEM MEDAS DELTA MYCIN DART, REACTOR INTERNIST/CADUCEUS XSEL CSA RAYDEX VISIONS IMS CALISTO NOAH OP-PLANNER KNOBS MOLGEN

GENERAL FUNCTION Analysis Analysis Analysis Analysis Automatic Programming Data Analysis Data Analysis " Data Analysis Data Analysis Design Design Design Diagnos=s Diagnosis Diagnos,s Diagnos=s Diagnosis Diagnos=s Intelligent Assistance Intelligent Assistance Intelligence Assistance Image Understanding Management Management. Planning Planning Planning Planning

SPECIFIC AREA Mechanical Problems Naval Task Force Threats Earthquake Damage Assessment Digital Circuitry Oil Well Log Modeling Geology Chemistry Protein Crystallography Oil Well Logs Circuitry Synthesis Computer System Configuration Chemical Synthesis Critical Care Medicine Locomotive Troubleshooting Medical Computer Faults "Nuclear Reactor Accidents Medical Computer Sales • Nuclear Power Plant Configuration Radiology Vision Automated Factory Management Project Management Robotics Erand planning Tactical Mission Planning Molecular Genetics DODCI 1090-85

CURRENT APPLICATIONS IN AI Continued

SOME NATURAL LANGUGE SYSTEMS !

TDUS SHRDLU

GENERAL FUNCTION Machine Translation/ Interfacing Machine Translation/ Interfacing Interfacing Interfacing

EXPLORER

Interfacing

INTELLECT NATURALLINK

Interfacing Interfacing

TEAMS MARKETEER POLITICS

Generic Interfacing Interfacing Inference Making

BROKER

Interfacing

STRAIGHT TALK

Interfacing

NATURAL LANGUAGE SYSTEM

LADDER SAM

SPECIFIC AREA

Ship Identification & Loo~ion Generic Story Understanding Electromechanical Repair Location & Manipulation of Three Dimensional Figures Map Generation & Display Data Base Management Dow Jones Data Retrieval & Display Data Base Management Market Analysis Ideological Belief System Simulation Standard & Poor's Data Base Management System Word Processing/ Microcomputer Workstations DODCI 1091-85

,POTENTIAL APPLICATION OF AI • OFFICE AUTOMATION • BANKING AND FINANCE • • • •

INDUSTRY DEFENSE GOVERNMENT EDUCATION and TRAINING

(Mike Turner, 1985) DODCI 1036-85

THE HURDLES TO BE OVERCOME

O LACK OF PROCESSING POWER IN EXISTING COMPUTERS (VHSlC,PARALLEL PROCESSING?) • "KNOWLEDGE-REPRENSENTATION" LANGUAGE (LISP,PROLOG?) • INTERFACE (NATURAL LANGUAGE INTERFACE,

KNOWLEDGE ENGINEERING?) O EXPERTS UNWILLING TO IMPART THEIR EXPERTISE DAVID HARVEY 1984 DODCI 1037-85

Computer Aided Decision Making Data-based System

Knowledge-basedSystem

• Data Base Management System (DBMS)

• Natural Language System

• Management Information System (MIS)

• Expert System

• Decision Support System (DSS)

DODCI 1038-85

I II

...

BY A N Y O T H E R

NAME...,

• Knowledged-based Expert System • Rule-based System (RBS)

• Intelligent Knowledge-based System • Pattern-directed Inference System • Production System • Blackboard System (Mike Turner, 1985)

DODCI 1039-85

GOALS OF EXPERT SYSTEM I

I

I

I

II I

• Substitute for unavailable human expert

Assimilate knowledge of multiple human experts Train new experts (Paul Harmon, David King 1985) DODCI t040-85

Common Properties/Characteristics/ Features of Expert Systems |

I

I

I

I

I

Properties'. • Incorporate human knowledge in conditional If-Then rules • Skill increases at a rate proportional to enlargement of knowledge base • Can solve wide range of complex problems by selecting relevant rules and combining results in appropriate ways • They adaptively determine best sequence of rule execution • Can explain conclusion by retracing lines of reasoning in natural language DODCI 1041-85

Common Properties/Characteristics/ Features of Expert Systems (Cont.) I



I

I

I

Characteristics: • Existing knowledge can be refined and new knowledge added (For incremental improvements in system performance) • System able to explain reasoning (Making their logic practically transparent) DODCI 1042-85

Common Properties/Characteristics/ Features of Expert Systems (Cont.) I



I

I

Features: • Modular know-how • Knowledge base for storing rules/facts that determine decision • Capacity for incremental development with steady performance improvements • Explanation of results, lines of reasoning, and questions asked • Intelligibly encoded beliefs and problem-solving techniques • Inference chains assembled dynamically by built-in control procedures that can often perform efficient searches DODCI 1043-85 ( F r e d e r i c k Hayes-Roth 1985)

An overview of the human information processing system. The environment The human information processing system The cognitive subsystem Long-term memory (network of associated chunks)

The perceptual subsystem

The motor

subsystem '

Working v memory 3-7 activated chunks)

Stimulus

Buffer

Buffer memories

memories

Muscles, etc

The cognitive processor

DODCI 1045-85

DIVERGENT VS CONVERGENT REASONING •

I_

I

R E S Data

"Algorithm"

U L T S

Divergent Reasoning • Small amount of data--Lots of results • "Von Nuemann" Computer • Example = Payroll Program

Resu, A

Convergent Reasoning • Massive amount of data--Few results • Parallel processing computer • Example = A woman mulls a lifetime of romantic experience before answering her suitor's marriage proposal with a simple "yes". DODCI 1046-85

DEFINITION OF EXPERTISE Human experts are: • Problem solvers • Explainers of results • Learners from experience • Knowledge structurers • Rule seekers (if necessary) • Relevance deciders • Less motivated as knowledge runs out (David Harvey, Mar. 84) DODCI 1047-85

The architecture of a knowledge-based expert system. (The knowledge base is shaded for emphasis.)

::/.:..!-...~:.::::.....:...,:.-:."] [smlt]: value 1 [question: '/~text~'], value 2 [question: '~text~'],...

-attribute name -attachment -attribute type -attribute value -attachment

value n [question: "(te×t~']. EXAMPLE:

prompt

[question: "Which prompt is on your CRT(screen)?"] [smlt): a

[question: "A)"], b

[question: "B>"].

name I) Question attachment

I)

I)Attribute value I)Question attachment I~Attribute value I~Question attachment

User session for these attachments would be: Which prompt is on your CRT(screen]?

liar>

21B> _-? DODCI1106-85

DECLAREDATTACHMENTS I_

i

i

SYNTAX & EXAMPLES

SYNTAX:

attachment: %

Name 1

Name 2

...Name n

-Attachment Section -Attachment

[(attachment name): "[text o| messagel" "[text of messagel"] EXAMPLE:

attachments: explain relerence rationale % attributes: USER FRIENDLYFEATURES [question: "'Have you Included an explanation of how the user" "gains access to attachments in the actions section?" "(display reference rationale(USER FRIENDLY FEATURES))] [reference: "Nagy,Gault,Nagy: Building Your First Expert" "System"] [rationale: "Expert systems should be user friendly and" "attachments are user friendly features of MICRO-PS."] (smlt]: yes. no.

USER FRIENDLYFEATURESSTATUS [smlt]: presenL absent

%

rules:

FRIENDLY FEATURESPRESENT If USER FBIENOLYFEATURES= yes. then USER FRIENDLYFEATURESSTATUS= present, FRIENDLY FEATURESABSENT [I USER FR[EHOLYFEATURES= no. then USERFRIENDLYFEATURESSTATUS - absent % actions: message "Online help is available for questions with this leature:" "(display relerence )USERFRIENDLYFEATURES1)For example, type:" "display relerence[USER FRIENDLYFEATURESIwhen you are prompted" "to answer a question.". obtain USERFRIENDLYFEATURESSTATUS. pause % 000C1110145

DECLAREDATTACHMENTS Syntax

Examples(continued)

II

I

User session for this portion of actions would be: Executing the knowledge base... Online help is available for questions with this feature: ,[display reference (USER FRIENDLY FEATURES)], For example, type: display reference(USER FRIENDLY FEATURES) when you are prompted to answer a question. Have you included an explanation of how the user gains access to attachments in the actions section? {display reference rationale(USER FRIENDLY FEATURES)} 1) YES

2) NO = ? display reference(USER FRIENDLY FEATURES) DEFERRINGCURRENTQUESTION[Type CONTINUEto resume question] Nagy,Gault,Nagy: Building Your First Expert System DEFERRINGCURRENTQUESTION[Type CONTINUEto resume question] ready for command: display rationale(USER FRIENDLY FEATURES) Expert systems should be user friendly and attachments are user friendly features of MICRO-PS. DEFERRINGCURRENTQUESTION[Type CONTINUEto resume question] ready for command: CONTINUE Have you included an explanation of how the user gains access to attachments in the actions section? ,[display reference rationale(USER FRIENDLY FEATURES]], 1l YES

2) NO g0DCI 1108-85

EXAMPLE OF EBBOB DETECTION

DO 1]CHANGE DEFAULT DRIVE

2]OTHEB

=?3 Execution error: illegal selection-try again DO I)CHANGE DEFAULT DRIVE 2]OTHEB -?

DODCI 1109-85

MESSAGE COiYilYIAND Syntax & Example

I

SYNTAX: message "value 1, then 2) B~> =? DODCI1106-85

DECLAREDA:I'TACHMENTS •

SYNTAX & EXAMPLES I

II

SYNTAX: attachment: %

Name 1

Name 2

...Name n

-Attachment Section -Attachment

[[attachment name]: "ltext ol message)" "ltext of message)"] EXAMPLE: attachments: explain relerence rationale % attributes: USER FRIENDLYFEATURES [question: "Have you Included an explanation ol how the user" "'gains access to attachmentsin the actions section?" "(display relerence rationale(USER FRIENDLY FEATURES))] [reference: "Nagy,Gault,Nagy: Building Your First Expert" "System"] [rationale: "Expert systems should be user friendly and" "attachments are user friendly features of MICRO-PS."]

(stall): yes. no. USER FRIENDLYFEATURESSTATUS

Ismlt]: presenL absent

%

rules: FRIENDLY FEATURESPRESENT If USER FRIENDLYFEATURES= yes. then USER FRIENDLYFEATURESSTATUS= present. FRIENDLY FEATURESABSENT if USER FRIEHOLYFEATURES=, no. then USER FRIENDLYFEATURESSTATUS - absent % actions: message "Online help is available for questions with this leature:" "(display relerence (USER FRIENDLYFEATURES])For example, type:" "display referencelUSER FRIENDLYFEATURESIwhen you are prompted" "to answer a question.". obtain USER FRIENDLY FEATURESSTATUS. pause % OODU i I01-.t~

DECLAREDATTACHMENTS Syntax & Examples (continued) User session for this portion of actions would be:

Executing the knowledge base... Online help is available for questions with this feature: {display reference (USER FRIENDLY FEATURES)} For example, type: display reference(USER FRIENDLY FEATURES) when you are prompted to answer a question.

Have you included an explanation of how the user gains access to attachments in the actions section? {display reference rationale(USER FRIENDLY FEATURES)}

1) YES

2) NO = ? display reference(USER FRIENDLY FEATURES)

DEFERRINGCURRENTQUESTION[Type CONTINUEto resume question] Nagy,Gault,Nagy: Building Your First Expert System

DEFERRINGCURRENTQUESTION[Type CONTINUEto resume question] ready for command: display rationale(USER FRIENDLY FEATURES) Expert systems should be user friendly and attachments are user friendly features of MICRO-PS.

DEFERRINGCURRENTQUESTION[Type CONTINUEto resume question] ready for command: CONTINUE Have you included an explanation of how the user gains access to attachments in the actions section? ,[display reference rationale(USER FRIENDLYFEATURES))

1) YES 2) NO DODCI1108-85

EXAMPLE OF EBBOBDETECTION

DO I)CHANGE DEFAULTDRIVE 2)OTHER =?3 Execution error: illegal selection-try again DO

1)CHANGE DEFAULT DRIVE 2)OTHER -?

DOOCI 1109-85

MESSAGE COMMAND Syntax & Example I

SYNTAX:

message "~,text of message>" "". EXAMPLE:

actions:

message " " " WELCOME TO THE PC" " FILE OPERATIONS EXPERT SYSTEM". message "This expert system will assist you in determining if" "you need to change the default disk drive. It will prompt you" "lor answers which you should enter by typing in the number and" "a carriage RETURN. For example, 2|, O 0 C ¢.= (..)

Vision Speech

associate

management

ojo~\S

~'~\'~,~~ ~-~oOS ~,99\-.~c,-,~--

\o

Expert systems

,.~. o ~ ,~

Natural language Planning and reasoning

Symbolic Ik Multiprocessor programmin! processors and operating systems General-purpose High-speed systems siqnal proc( Silicon and gallium arsenide technology VLSI systems ii

Networks Research machines Design tools

Implementation' systems and foundries Interoperability protocols Rapid machine prototyping

J

DODCI 1075-85

Defense Advanced Research Project Agency Strategic Computing Cost Summary (in $Millions) II

Total Military

I I

II

I

FY84

FY85

FY86

FY87

FY88

6

15

27

TBD

TBD

26

50

83

TBD

TBD

16

27

36

TBD

TBD

3

4

TBD

TBD

95

150

TBD

TBD

Application Total Technology

Base Total Infrastructure Total Program

2 l

Support TOTAL

50

• FIVE YEAR TOTAL ESTIMATED AT $600m (Approx $150 million per

year)

eTOTAL OVER NEXT DECADE ESTIMATED TO BE $1 BILLION (Strategic Computing 1983) DODCl 107'6-85

~=.S''~ " DJS~

Advanced Research Proiect Agency A u t o n o m o u s Land Vehicle

I

IIII

II

I

I

Capability: I

• Sense and i n t e r p r e t e n v i r o n m e n t ePlan and reason using sensed and o t h e r data

elnitiate action eCommunicate systems

with

human

and

other

D O D C I 1077-85

De-f.ense Advanced Research Project Agency I

II

Autonomous Land Vehicle I

Continued

III

Specifications: • Cross country at 60 KPH eNavigate to point 50 Kilometers away visually eDetect obstacles eLocate and identify landmarks oMap terrain DODCI 1078-85

Defense Advanced Research Project Agency III

I

I

A u t o n o m o u s L a n d Vehicle I

I

I__

_

I

I

Coot~°ued _

I

Technology: I

i

NEEDED e10-100 billion IPS • 10 gegabytes of

TODAY'S

CAPABILITY

30-40 nTillion IPS 10-30 megabytes

memory

e6500 navigation rules efiring rate-7000 rules/sec

2000 ru les 50-100 RPS

Size/weight/power: 6-15 cubic feet/ less than 500 Ibs/ less than 1 kw of power (1-4 orders of magnitude reductioll in weight, space, and power) DODCI 1079-85

Defense Advanced Research Project Agency I

I

I

Autonomous Land Vehicle (continued] I

I

[

I I

IIII

Use of Technology: I

II

I

• "Smart" Monitors ecruise missiles erobotics for handling, manufacturing eunderwater robots emunitions handling

(Strategic Computing 1983) DODCl 1080-85

Defense Advanced Research Project Agency Pilot's Associate System I

I

I

I

•Objective -Off load lower-level chores like regulation of oil temperature -Perform special functions like detect/diagnosis impending malfunctions

•Characteristics -Trained by pilot -"Know" wealth of general knowledge -"Know" advanced tactics from best pilots -Knowledge base easily updated in dynamic environment -Exchanges knowledge with other associates -Several thousand rules with graphics/speech DODCI 1081-85

Defense Advanced Research Project Agency Naval Battle Management System I

eCVBG Battle Managment System (CVBG BMS) -Integrated into CWC Defense System -Graphically represents battle area with: eEnemy/Friendly OOB eEW Environment eStrike Plan eWeather eOther factors

DODCl 1082-85

Defense Advanced Research Project Agency Naval Battle Management System II

I

I

II

I

Continued

-Generate prioritized estimate of enemy intent -Explain reasoning/sources/probabilities -Generate potential courses of action with likely outcomes/ relative attractiveness -Prepare/disseminate operations plan -"Learn" from each engagement

oLimited System on USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70) • Requires 20,000 Rules/10 BIPS

oWill utilize graphics/speech DODCI 1083-85

INTELLIGENCE IIII

NATURAL, •CREATIVE eCAN ACQUIRE

KNOWLEDGE eSENSORY INPUT eWIDE, WIDE CONTEXT eTRANSITORY eAPPRENTICESHIP eMORE EXPENSIVE eERRATIC eSLIPSHOD eNOT EASILY DOCUMENTED

ARTIFICIAL eUNINSPIRED eMUST BE GIVEN KNOWLEDGE eSYMBOLIC INPUT eNARROW CONTEXT ePERMANANCE eEASILY DUPLICATED eLESS EXPENSIVE eCONSISTENT eTHOROUGH eDOCUMENTABLE

DODCI 1084-85

HUMAN vs COMPUTER PROBLEM SOLVING o

|

I

III

o H I G H LEVEL PERFORMANCE

I

i

• HIGH LEVEL

PERFORMANCE

oBROAD

•NARROW

oSELF C O R R E C T I N G

• NOT PROTECTED

oEMOTION

• STABLE (COLD)

oFATIGUE

olNDEFATIGABLE

oUNAVAILABLE

eAVAILABLE

oBIAS

oLESS BIAS

olMPERIAL

olMPERSONAL

DODCI 1085-.85

THE C O M P U T E R E V O L U T I O N I

I

I

• C o m p u t e r Revolution or Evolution? 1951 Vacuum tube powered UNIVAC I delivered t o U S Census Bureau 1985 Transparent computers in carburators, calculators, clocks, dishwashers, microwave ovens, automatic bank tellers, etc 1951 Single transistor cost $10, Cadillac limousine cost $7,600 1985 If Limo had followed semiconductor cost curve (fall 30-40% per year), it would sell for3¢ instead of $40,000

• C a n w e o v e r sell A I ? DODCI 1086-85

A range of expert systems applicati ons to expect in the 1980s. I I

II

l

I

I I

li

Small-Scale Systems ( _ :200 rules)

Large-Scale Systems ( + 2,000 rules)

J

,0,

Large, hybrid systems

Examples of Packaging

,0,

,e,

Professional workstations

Large, narrow systems

Timeshared systems Proprietary commercial syslems Military and other government systems

Workstations for technicians (automated programming, VLSI design) Workstations for managers

Olher Applications

4'I

Non-systems applications

Small-scale systems

Smart procedures manuals

e

Small decisionsupport systems Smart generic software for PCs Microchips in instruments

Examples of Syslem Building Tools Examples of Syslems

KEE ART

S. 1 OPS5

Exploratory programming Job redesign Cognitive task analysis Informalion as an asset

ES/P ADVISOR EXPERT

BION workslalion

Prospector Drilling Advisor XCON (R. 1) I

I

PUFF "Micro"chip (Helena Labs)

New analysis and design techniques i

L)ODCI 1{]87-85

Market Impact of Various Types of Systems ii

I

I

I

Small, specialized knowledge systems and tools

1985

1995

1990

Cutting.edge companies i;'ii::i..ii! i:.;.!.i.~..:.... ....

Advanced companies

......~.



...;

:,:::

Normal companies

Large-scale, hybrid expert systems and tools

1985

1990

Large-scale, narrow expert systems and tools

1990

1985

1995

ii

Cutting-edge companies ".:-.::~:::.':~::.

'..'.~-.:....

. . . .•

..

" ....... "" ..,'"' ~ : ' : :"" ..',....,....:~.t::'..'.'.

" ""

...... ..: .. ~.:i:-.-.::.::,~

Advanced companies

Advanced companies

Normal companies •

Normal companies I

!

II

II

|

__

I

1995

" "::~. '"

" '".~: "'"

:

'-'.h".":..,

::~:~,i::l~~ :.,': ~.~~ :i~i:

~, ,-

:-':L',i,!.

II

I

I

The bands indicate where the action will be over the next ten years OODCI

t088-85

COURSE HIGHLIGHTS II

I

II

I I

I

I

PHASE

TOPIC

1.

Introduction and Overview:

Q

Developing an Expert System !

#

0

The Worldwide challenge

Course Summary

DODCl 1188-86

13.140-3/SH S P R I N G 86

ARTIFICIAL

INTELLIGENCE AND EXPERT FOR GOVERNMENT EXECUTIVES

SYSTEMS

BIBLIOGRAPHY

PHASE 1 - INTRODUCTION/OVERVIEW

Schrage, Michael, "HOW Y O U CAN P R O F I T F R O M THE C O M I N G FEDERAL INFO WAR", The W a s h i n g t o n Post Sept 29, 1985 pBl, B 4 - B 5 ABSTRACT: A s t o r y about the w i n n e r s and losers in the m o s t i n f o r m a t i o n - i n t e n s i v e o r g a n i z a t i o n in the world: the b u r e a u c r a c y of the federal government. Roth, Terence• "FINISHED AT FORTY", The Wall Street J o u r n a l Sept 16, 1985 p43C, 52C ABSTRACT: Are 35 to 4 5 - y e a r - o l d m a n a g e r s who fear c o m p u t e r t e c h n o l o g y in d a n g e r of b e c o m i n g "has-beens"? Gottschalk, Earl C. Jr., " E X E C U T I V E COMPUTING", The W a l l Street Journal Sep 16, 1985 p23C, 37C ABSTRACT: How a few top e x e c u t i v e s are u s i n g t h e i r p e r s o n a l computers. Zehr, Leonard• "THE PAPER PALACE"• The Wall Street J o u r n a l Sept 16, 1985 p 4 0 C ABSTRACT: A d d r e s s e s the m y t h of "the p a p e r l e s s o f f i c e " . SESSION

I

-

INTRODUCTION

TO

ARTIFICIAL

INTELLIGENCE

Andriole, S t e p h e n J., "ARTIFICIAL I N T E L L I G E N C E COMES OF AGE", N a t i o n a l D e f e n s e Dec 1984 p43-46, 50-52 ABSTRACT: A d i s c u s s i o n about the a p p l i c a b i l i t y of AI to the m i l i t a r y a d d r e s s i n g its scope and methods, the players, its role in n a t i o n a l defense• the net effect, and a p r o g n o s i s . Schemmer• B e n j a m i n F., " M I C R O E L E C T R O N I C S A D V A N C E S W I L L PACE D R A M A T I C C H A N G E S IN FUTURE WARS" A r m e d Forces J o u r n a l I n t e r n a t i o n a l 122/2 Sep 1984 p86-88, 91 ABSTRACT: A r e l a t i v e l y n o n - t e c h n i c a l look at s t a t e - o f - t h e art in c o m p u t e r t e c h n o l o g y t h r o u g h the eyes of ADM B o b b y Inman.

4-1

Expert Computer Systems

Bibliography

Williamson, Mickey, "THE HISTORY OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE PART I", PC Week Oct I, 1985 p51-53 ABSTRACT: Excerpt from Williamson's book (Artificial Intelligence for Microcomputers, The Guide for Business Decisionmakers) explaining how AI emerged in the computer industry to set the stage for the movement of technology into the microcomputer arena. Hayes-Roth, Frederick, "RULE-BASED SYSTEMS", C o m m u n i c a t i o n of ACM 28/9 Sep 1985 p921-931 ABSTRACT: Good overview of how "rule-based systems" automate problem solving know-how, provide a means for capturing and refining human expertise, and are proving to be commercially viable. Williamson, Mickey, "NATURAL-LANGUAGE INQUIRY SYSTEM - PART 2", PC Week Oct 8, 1985 p41-42 ABSTRACT: Excerpt for Williamson's book (Artificial Intelligence for Microcomputers, The Guide for Business Decisionmakers) describes Eliza, a natural-language interface developed in 1965.

SESSION

II

-

KNOWLEDGE

BASED

EXPERT

SYSTEMS

OVERVIEW

Oxman, Steven W., "EXPERT SYSTEMS REPRESENT ULTIMATE GOAL OF STRATEGIC DECISION MAKING", Data Management 23/4 Apr 1985 p36-38 ABSTRACT: A look at the related goals and classes of use of expert systems, artificial intelligence systems, decision support systems, management information systems, and data base management systems. Disects the components of expert systems. Lemley, Brad, "ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE: INTELLIGENT SOFTWARE FOR PROBLEM SOLVING", PC Magazine Apr 16, 1985 p108, 110-112 ABSTRACT: Introduces expert systems as the first truly useful application of artificial intelligence. Kinnucan, Paul, "ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE: MAKING COMPUTERS SMARTER", High Technology Nov/Dec 1982 p60-70 ABSTRACT: Good examples of useful expert systems including STEAMER and PROSPECTOR. Insert articles, "How AI Systems Represent Knowledge" and "Business Outlook: Artificial Intelligence." Tello, Ernie, "THE LANGUAGES OF AI RESEARCH", PC Magazine Apt 16, 1985 p173-189 ABSTRACT: Introduction to LISP and PROLOG including stengths and weaknesses of both in insert article.

4-2

Expert Computer Systems

SESSION

III

-

EXISTING

Bibliography

EXPERT

SYSTEMS

AND

TOOLS

Fertig, Robert T., "SMALL EXPERT SYSTEMS OK-AS FAR AS THEY GO", Management Information Systems Week May 22, 1985 p24-25 ABSTRACT: A critical review of capabilities of microcomputer expert systems. Discusses Expert Ease, TIMM, Personal Consultant, and M.I. Kinnucan, Paul, "SOFTWARE TOOLS SPEED EXPERT SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT", High Technology Mar 1985, p16-20 ABSTRACT: Good overview of shell programs currently available including a discussion of their strengths and weaknesses. Derfler, Frank J. Jr., "EXPERT-EASE MAKES ITS OWN RULES", PC Magazine Apt 16, 1985 pi19-124 ABSTRACT: Indepth review of capabilities of Expert Ease. Derfler, Frank J. Jr., "AN AFFORDABLE ADVISOR", PC M a g a z i n e Apr 16, 1985 pi13-i17 ABSTRACT: Indepth review of capabilities of EXSYS.

SESSION

IV

-

NAVY

RESEARCH

LAB

TOUR

Julian, Ken, "DEFENSE PROGRAM PUSHES MICROCHIP FRONTIERS: U.S. INDUSTRY CHALLENGED TO CREATE FASTER, DENSER INTEGRATED CIRCUITS FOR FUTURE MILITARY SYSTEMS", High Technology 5/5 May 1985 p49-55,57 ABSTRACT: Technical discussion on the current state-of-theart in computer technology and how DOD is pushing technology through their very-highspeed integrated circuit (VHSIC, pronounced "vissio") program. Boden, Margaret A., "IMPACTS OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE", Futures 16/1 Feb 1984 p60-69 ABSTRACT: Pretty heavy article which discusses, among other things, robotics, low-level vision, natural language processing and knowledge-based expert systems and their uses for education, science, and technology.

4-3

Expert C o m p u t e r

Systems

PHASE

SESSION

V

-

2

-

DEVELOPING

Bibliography

DEVELOPING

EXPERT

AN

SYSTEMS,

EXPERT

AN

SYSTEM

OVERVIEW

McMullen, B a r b a r a E. and John F., "SPECIALIZED SOFTWARE", P o p u l a r C o m p u t i n g Apr 1985 p75-80 ABSTRACT: A r t i c l e reviews four types of s p e c i a l i z e d problemsolving software for m i c r o c o m p u t e r s giving examples of each. Good o v e r v i e w of software aids available (including e x p e r t systems) for p r o b l e m solving. Michaelsen, Robert H., Donald Michie, and A l b e r t Boulanger, "THE T E C H N O L O G Y OF EXPERT SYSTEMS", Byte Apr 1985 p 3 0 3 - 3 1 2 ABSTRACT: Technical i n t r o d u c t i o n to expert s y s t e m s i n c l u d i n g definitions, m e t h o d s for building, and a review of c o m p u t e r r e s o u r c e s n e e d e d to build and run them. Thompson, B e v e r l y A. and W i l l i a m A., "INSIDE AN EXPERT SYSTEM", Byte Apr 1985 p 3 1 5 - 3 3 0 ABSTRACT: D i s c r i b e s one way that an expert s y s t e m can use a set of rules to conduct a c o n s u l t a t i o n and examines the m e c h a n i c s of o p e r a t i o n and p r o g r a m m i n g c o n s i d e r a t i o n s a s s o c i a t e d with b u i l d i n g an expert system.

SESSION

VI

-

BUILDING

A

SMALL

EXPERT

SYSTEM,

Part

I

Williamson, Micky, "KNOWLEDGE-BASED AND EXPERT SYSTEMS -PART 3", PC W e e k Oct 15, 1985 p53-54 ABSTRACT: Excerpt from W i l l i a m s o n ' s b o o k ( A r t i f i c i a l I n t e l l i g e n c e for Microcomputers, The Guide for B u s i n e s s D e c i s i o n m a k e r s ) w h i c h describes a d o - i t - y o u r s e l f a p p r o a c h to b u i l d i n g k n o w l e d g e - b a s e d or expert systems. It also e x p l a i n s why every p r o b l e m or task cannot be h a n d l e d by an expert s y s t e m and includes p o i n t e r s that can help you select the right t a r g e t s for an A I - b a s e d solution. Fersko-Weis, Henry, "EXPERT SYSTEMS D E C I S I O N - M A K I N G POWER", Personal C o m p u t i n g Nov 1985 p97-i01, 103-105 ABSTRACT: Examines the t h r e s h o l d being crossed by p e r s o n a l c o m p u t e r s allowing users to diagnose problems, reason t h r o u g h p o s s i b l e causes and find solutions. Reviews several Tools c u r r e n t l y available. E x c e l l e n t insert articles, An Expert whose Brain Was Drained, A First Look at Paradox - An AI Data Base, The Inner W o r k i n g s of Expert Systems, S a m p l i n g of A r t i f i c i a l I n t e l l i g e n c e Software.

4-4

Expert

Computer

SESSION

VII

SESSION

VIII

SESSION

IX

Systems

- BUILDING

- BUILDING

- GUEST

Bibliography

A

SMALL

A

SMALL

EXPERT

SYSTEM,

EXPERT

SPEAKER/DEMONSTRATION

4-5

SYSTEM,

BY

Part

PART

TITAN

II

III

Expert C o m p u t e r

Systems

PHASE

SESSION

X

-

THE

GAME

3

AND

Bibliography

-

THE

THE

WORLDWIDE

CHALLENGE

PLAYERS

Rhein, Robert, R., "JAPAN'S R&D CHALLENGE", May 1985 p82-90 ABSTRACT: A m e r i c a n firms and g o v e r n m e n t Japan's p o t e n t i a l h i g h - t e c h n o l o g y d o m i n a n c e of dollars for AI r e s e a r c h and development.

Hardcopy

14/5

are r e s p o n d i n g to by a l l o c a t i n g billions

Boffey, P h i l i p M., "SMALL A G E N C Y QUIETLY PLAYS P O W E R F U L ROLE IN D E V E L O P I N G EXOTIC RESEARCH", The New York Times (National Addition) April 23, 1985 pCl, C5 ABSTRACT: D i s c r i b e s D A R P A ' s role in p u s h i n g the U. S. toward r e v o l u t i o n a r y t e c h n o l o g i e s that are n e g l e c t e d or even o p p o s e d by the m i l i t a r y services and leading industries. Schatz, W i l l i e and John W. Verity, "MILITARY COMPUTING: DARPA'S BIG PUSH IN AI" D a t a m a t i o n 30/2 Feb 1984 p48-50 ABSTRACT: A d d r e s s e s DARPA's role in the $600 million, fiveyear R&D S t r a t e g i c C o m p u t i n g program. Davis, Dwight B., "ASSESSING THE STRATEGIC C O M P U T I N G INITIATIVE", High T e c h n o l o g y 5/4 Apr 1985 p43, 46-49 ABSTRACT: Indepth look at the $600 million, f i v e - y e a r R&D S t r a t e g i c C o m p u t e r Initiative (SDI). Gerencser, Mark and Ron Smeteck, "ARTIFICIAL I N T E L L I G E N C E ON THE BATTLEFIELD", M i l i t a r y T e c h n o l o g y VIII/6 Jun 1984 p86, 89, 91-92 ABSTRACT: Looks at how expert systems can i n c r e a s e the rate at w h i c h d e c i s i o n s are made on the m o d e r n NATO b a t t l e f i e l d and improve the overall accuracy of those decisions. McCommon, Kevin B., "THE RACE FOR THE FIFTH G E N E R A T I O N COMPUTER", National D e f e n s e Dec 1984 p37, 40-41 ABSTRACT: This article d i s c u s s e s M i c r o e l e c t o n i c s and Computer T e c h n o l o g y C o r p o r a t i o n (MCC), a c o n s o r t i u m of about 2 1 U . S . firms, and its m i s s i o n to conduct r e s e a r c h that will help the U.S. m a i n t a i n t e c h n o l o g i c a l leadership in c o m p u t i n g and data p r o c e s s i n g systems. Yoder, S t e p h e n Kreider, "CREATED IN JAPAN", The Wall Street Journal Sept 16, 1985 p 8 2 C - 8 3 C ABSTRACT: Short article d i s c u s s e d the p r o b l e m s the Japanese are h a v i n g with their Fifth G e n e r a t i o n Project.

4-6

Expert Computer Systems

Bibliography

Raike, W i l l i a m M., "THE F I F T H G E N E R A T I O N IN JAPAN", B y t e Apr 1985 p 4 0 1 - 4 0 6 ABSTRACT: S t a t u s r e p o r t on J a p a n ' s F i f t h G e n e r a t i o n Project. M e n t i o n s E S P R I T and U.S. efforts. SESSION

XI

-

GUEST

SPEAKER

FROM

DARPA

Kempe, Frederick, "SILICON SATELLITES", The Wall S t r e e t Journal Sept 16, 1985 p76C, 80C ABSTRACT: The a r t i c l e d i s c u s s e s M o s c o w ' s d e m a n d on its six East E u r o p e a n allies to p r o v i d e the capital, r e s e a r c h and t e c h n o l o g y the S o v i e t s d e s p e r a t e l y need. Bankes, S t e v e n C., "FUTURE M I L I T A R Y A P P L I C A T I O N S FOR K N O W L E D G E E N G I N E E R I N G " , R a n d P u b l i c a t i o n S e r i e s N 2 1 0 2 - A F Feb 1985 ABSTRACT: R e p o r t p r e p a r e d by R a n d C o r p o r a t i o n for U S A F w h i c h e x a m i n e s how a n t i c i p a t e d i m p r o v e m e n t s in c o m p u t e r technology, s p e c i f i c a l l y k n o w l e d g e b a s e d systems, will affect the U S A F m i s s i o n o v e r the next 25 years. In a d d i t i o n to d i s c u s s i n g the p r e s e n t state of the technology, the r e p o r t d i s c u s s e s fifth g e n e r a t i o n machines, VLSI, and the J a p a n e s e F i f t h G e n e r a t i o n Project. A c o m p e h e n s i v e e v a l u a t i o n of n e a r t e r m r i s k s and o p p o r t u n i t i e s is also included.

4-7

Expert

Computer

Systems

PHASE

SESSION

XII

-

Bibliography

4 - COURSE

SUMMARY

SUMMARY

Kneale, Des, "THE U N F I N I S H E D REVOLUTION", Journal Sept 16, 1985 plC, 6C ABSTRACT: O p t i m i s t i c look at e n o r m o u s computer revolution.

The Wall potential

Street of the

W i l l i a m s o n , Mickey, "THE F U T U R E OF A R T I F I C I A L I N T E L L I G E N C E - PART 4", PC W e e k Oct 22, 1985 p 4 7 - 4 8 ABSTRACT: E x c e r p t from W i l l i a m s o n ' s b o o k ( A r t i f i c i a l I n t e l l i g e n c e for M i c r o c o m p u t e r s , The Guide for B u s i n e s s D e c i s i o n m a k e r s ) w h i c h d e s c r i b e s a w i s h list for AI c o m p u t e r s a l o n g w i t h the t e c h n i c a l a d v a n c e s that are n e e d e d to r e a c h these goals.

4-8