since working as a design engineer designing MOS/LSI circuits for. Texas
Instruments ... ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE AND EXPERT COMPUTER
SYSTEMS for.
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Report# ~ ~ ~ ~ _ _ ~ / ~ / ~
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Artificial Intelligence and Expert Systems
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ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE and EXPERT SYSTEMS
P
mt
DISCLAIMER
T h i s r e s e a r c h r e p o r t r e p r e s e n t s the v i e w s of the a u t h o r and does n o t n e c e s s a r i l y r e f l e c t the o f f i c i a l o p i n i o n of t h e N a t i o n a l War C o l l e g e , the N a t i o n a l D e f e n s e U n i v e r s i t y , or t h e D e p a r t m e n t of D e f e n s e . T h i s d o c u m e n t is the p r o p e r t y of the U n i t e d S t a t e s and is n o t to be r e p r o d u c e d in w h o l e or part w i t h o u t of t h e Commandant, The N a t i o n a l War College, Fort M c N a i r , W a s h i n g t o n , DC 2 0 3 1 9 - 6 0 0 0
ii
Government permission Lesley J.
THE N A T I O N A L STRATEGIC
WAR C O L L E G E
STUDIES
TITLE:
Artificial Government
Intelligence Executives
AUTHOR:
Charles
Stevenson,
DATE:
February
A.
REPORT
ABSTRACT
and E x p e r t
Commander,
Systems
for
USN
1986
This r e p o r t c o n s i s t s of the syllabus, i n s t r u c t o r l e s s o n guides, viewgraphs, and b i b l i o g r a p h y for a c o u r s e of i n s t r u c t i o n t a u g h t by the a u t h o r as an e l e c t i v e at The N a t i o n a l D e f e n s e U n i v e r s i t y d u r i n g the s p r i n g s e m e s t e r of 1986. The c o u r s e is d e s i g n e d to a c q u a i n t s e n i o r level d e c i s i o n m a k e r s w i t h the r a p i d l y a d v a n c i n g field of a r t i f i c i a l i n t e l l i g e n c e and the first p r a c t i c a l use of this n e w t e c h n o l o g y c o m m o n l y k n o w as e x p e r t systems. The c o u r s e c o n s i s t s of lectures, d e m o n s t r a t i o n s , and g u e s t s p e a k e r s to give the s e n i o r e x e c u t i v e a feel for the s t a t e - o f - t h e - a r t in c o m p u t e r t e c h n o l o g y as well as to d e m o n s t r a t e p o t e n t i a l a p p l i c a t i o n s of this n e w tool. It also p r o v i d e s the s t u d e n t s an o p p o r t u n i t y to d e v e l o p a small e x p e r t s y s t e m u s i n g a "shell" or "tool" on a microcomputer.
iii
BIOGRAPHICAL
SKETCH
Commander Charles A. Stevenson, USN (BS, Electrical Engineering, University of Missouri, 1970; MS, Aeronautical Engineering, Naval P o s t g r a d u a t e School, 1979; AeE, A e r o n a u t i c a l Engineer, Naval Postgraduate School, 1979; MBA, National University, 1981), has b e e n i n t e r e s t e d in c o m p u t e r t e c h n o l o g y since w o r k i n g as a d e s i g n e n g i n e e r d e s i g n i n g M O S / L S I c i r c u i t s for Texas I n s t r u m e n t s in 1970. He is an avid c o m p u t e r h o b b i e s t who has r e a d e x t e n s i v e l y on the subject. He has also s e r v e d as an adjunct p r o f e s s o r of m a t h e m a t i c s and c o m p u t e r s c i e n c e at San Diego C o m m u n i t y C o l l e g e and Capital I n s t i t u t e of Technology, and holds an i n s t r u c t o r credential in m a t h e m a t i c s , computer and related technologies, and o t h e r d i s c i p l i n e s from the B o a r d of Governors, C a l i f o r n i a C o m m u n i t y Colleges. C o m m a n d e r S t e v e n s o n is an A s s o c i a t e M e m b e r of S I G M A XI and a g r a d u a t e of The N a t i o n a l War College, Class of 1986.
iv
CONTENTS
PAGE
SECTION DISCLAIMER ABSTRACT
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
BIOGRAPHICAL TABLE
i
,
2.
OF
COURSE
CONTENTS
SYLLABUS
INSTRUCTOR Sesslon Sesslon Sesslon Session Session Session Session Session Sesslon Session Session Session
•
4.
LIST
SKETCH
OF
LESSON
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . GUIDE
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
iii iv v I-i 2-1
I - Introduction to Artificial Intelligence II - K n o w l e d g e - b a s e d Expert Systems Overview IIIExisting Expert Systems and Tools IV - ** Navy Research Lab Tour ** V - Developing Expert Systems, An Overview VI - Building a Small Expert System, Part I MS DOS Gouge Student Handout VII - Building a Small Expert System, Part II VIII - Building A Small Expert System, Part III IX - ** TITAN Corporation Demonstration ** X - The Game and the Players XI - ** DARPA Presentation ** XII - Course Summary
VIEWGRAPHS
BIBLIOGRAPHY
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
ii
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
3-1
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
4-1
V
13.140-2/SH S P R I N G 86
COURSE
ARTIFICIAL
INTELLIGENCE
140
AND
EXPERT
for
GOVERNMENT
EXECUTIVES
SYLLABUS
SPRING
i-i
86
COMPUTER
SYSTEMS
Expert
Computer
Systems
Syllabus
INTRODUCTION: L a r g e l y due to i n n o v a t i o n in the p r i v a t e sector, the U n i t e d S t a t e s has e n j o y e d a g r e a t t e c h n o l o g i c a l advantage over o u r a l l i e s as well as p o t e n t i a l a d v e r s a r i e s since the end of W o r l d W a r II. In no field has this a d v a n t a g e b e e n m o r e e v i d e n t than in the f i e l d of c o m p u t e r technology. However, for a v a r i e t y of reasons, other industrialized nations are c h a l l e n g i n g the American leadership position narrowing our once seemingly i n s u r m o u n t a b l e lead. For example, t h r e e y e a r s ago the J a p a n e s e p u b l i c l y s t a t e d a n a t i o n a l goal to b e c o m e the w o r l d l e a d e r in computer technology by being the first to develop a new generation of c o m p u t e r s b a s e d on a r t i f i c i a l intelligence (AI) technology, commonly referred to as the fifth generation of computers. "Expert Systems" are c o n s i d e r e d the first p r a c t i c a l application of this new technology. What are Artificial I n t e l l i g e n c e and E x p e r t S y s t e m s ? H o w do t h e y d i f f e r from t o d a y ' s computers? Are there p o t e n t i a l m i l i t a r y a p p l i c a t i o n s of this new technology? W h a t are the U n i t e d States, J a p a n and o t h e r n a t i o n s doing in the field? Is it f e a s i b l e that the J a p a n e s e will d e v e l o p a fifth g e n e r a t i o n c o m p u t e r first? If so, w h a t effect, if any, will this b r e a k t h r o u g h have on the n a t i o n a l security i n t e r e s t of the U n i t e d States?
METHODOLOGY: This c o u r s e is d e s i g n e d to a c q u a i n t s e n i o r level d e c i s i o n m a k e r s w i t h the r a p i d l y a d v a n c i n g f i e l d of a r t i f i c i a l i n t e l l i g e n c e and the first p r a c t i c a l use of this n e w t e c h n o l o g y c o m m o n l y k n o w as E x p e r t Systems. As such, the c o u r s e m a k e s use of lectures, d e m o n s t r a t i o n s , and g u e s t s p e a k e r s to give the s e n i o r e x e c u t i v e a feel for the s t a t e - o f - t h e - a r t in c o m p u t e r t e c h n o l o g y as well as to d e m o n s t r a t e p o t e n t i a l applications for this new tool. In addition, the s t u d e n t will be g i v e n an o p p o r t u n i t y to 1 d e v e l o p a small e x p e r t s y s t e m u s i n g a "shell" or "tool" on an IBM c o m p a r a b l e s i x t e e n bit m i c r o c o m p u t e r . A r e s e a r c h p a p e r is not r e q u i r e d .
PREREQUISITES: There are no prerequisites for this course. However, a r u d i m e n t a r y c o m p u t e r b a c k g r o u n d i n c l u d i n g f a m i l i a r i t y w i t h e i t h e r the MS or PC DOS, or CP/M o p e r a t i n g s y s t e m w o u l d be helpful.
i. T o o l s are c o m p u t e r s o f t w a r e p a c k a g e s that s i m p l i f y the e f f o r t i n v o l v e d in b u i l d i n g a p p l i c a t i o n p r o g r a m s m u c h like a s p r e a d s h e e t s i m p l i f i e s c o m p u t e r i z i n g of n u m e r i c a l data.
1-2
Expert Computer Systems
COURSE
Syllabus
OBJECTIVES:
- to i n t r o d u c e the r a p i d l y developing field of p r a c t i c a l a r t i f i c i a l i n t e l l i g e n c e e m p h a s i z i n g the m o s t s u c c e s s f u l area of practical applications, knowledge based expert computer systems to define, clarify, and m a k e sense of the and r e a l i t i e s of p r a c t i c a l AI a p p l i c a t i o n s
claims,
promises,
- to a c q u i r e an u n d e r s t a n d i n g of and a p p r e c i a t i o n application, capabilities, and l i m i t a t i o n s of e x p e r t systems - to a c q u a i n t s e n i o r e x e c u t i v e s computer technology while giving future p o t e n t i a l a p p l i c a t i o n s - to e x p l o r e the d i f f i c u l t i e s of an e x p e r t s y s t e m - to e x p l o r e technology
current
and
for the computer
w i t h the s t a t e - o f - t h e - a r t in h i m / h e r an a p p r e c i a t i o n for
associated
future
with
applications
the
development
for
this
new
TEXT:
A. Paul H a r m o n and D a v i d King, Expert I n t e l l i g e n c e in Business, John W i l e y & Sons,
Systems, Artificial Inc, 1985
B. Tom Nagy, D i c k Gault, and M o n i c a Nagy, B u i l d i n g Expert System, A s h t o n - T a t e P u b l i s h i n g Group, 1985
Your
I N S T R U C T O R S : CDR Chuck STEVENSON, USN (51728) from the War C o l l e g e and LTC Steve KNODE, U S A F (51980) from the S u p p o r t S y s t e m s D e p a r t m e n t of the D e p a r t m e n t of D e f e n s e Institute.
1-3
First
National Decision Computer
Expert
Computer
Systems
Syllabus
COURSE
PHASE
SESSION
OUTLINE/ASSIGNMENTS
1 - INTRODUCTION/OVERVIEW
I - INTRODUCTION
TO A R T I F I C I A L
INTELLIGENCE
A.
Overview
B.
Demonstration
C.
C o m p u t e r s and C o m p u t e r T e c h n o l o g y i. W h y s h o u l d m a n a g e r s study c o m p u t e r s c i e n c e ? 2. W h a t is a c o m p u t e r ? 3. E v o l u t i o n of c o m p u t e r s / c o m p u t e r t e c h n o l o g y 4. W h e r e are we t o d a y and w h e r e are we g o i n g ?
D.
What i. 2. 3. 4.
E.
Current
F.
Technical
G.
Assignment i. H a r m o n - Forward, Preface, and C h a p t e r i, Chapter 2 2. See B i b l i o g r a p h y for s u p p l e m e n t a l r e a d i n g
SESSION A.
of c o u r s e = Meet
"Eliza"
is a r t i f i c i a l i n t e l l i g e n c e ? Definition The AI F a m i l y Tree H i s t o r y of AI W h y so m u c h h o o p - l a about AI? and F u t u r e A p p l i c a t i o n s Problems
II - K N O W L E D G E
BASED
of AI
Yet to be O v e r c o m e
EXPERT
SYSTEMS
OVERVIEW
B a s i c c o n c e p t s and t e c h n i q u e s i. Computer Aided Decision Making 2. Human problem solving 3. A r c h i t e c t u r e of E x p e r t S y s t e m s 4. P r o c e s s i n g Model 5. S t r a t e g i e s of R e p r e s e n t i n g K n o w l e d g e 6. Drawing inferences
B. Strengths/Weaknesses, Advantages/Disadvantages, P r o m i s e s / M y t h s of E x p e r t S y s t e m s
1-4
skim
Expert
Computer
i. 2. C.
SESSION
Systems
Syllabus
P r o b l e m D o m a i n of E x i s t i n g Advantages/Disadvantages
Techniques
Assignment i. H a r m o n - C h a p t e r s 3 t h r o u g h 5, skim C h a p t e r 6 2. Note: b a s i c c o n c e p t s and t e c h n i q u e s will be m o r e e a s i l y u n d e r s t o o d if C h a p t e r s 4 and 5 are s t u d i e d p r i o r to class p r e s e n t a t i o n . 3. See B i b l i o g r a p h y for s u p p l e m e n t a l r e a d i n g s III
- EXISTING
EXPERT
SYSTEMS
AND
TOOLS
A.
Languages, Tools and S y s t e m s i. Basic concepts 2. AI l a n g u a g e s 3. Tools or S h e l l s
B.
T o o l s or Shells i. C a t e g o r i e s of Tools 2. Consultation Paradigms 3. Problem Solving Strategies
C.
Existing
D.
Demonstrations
E.
Assignment i. H a r m o n - C h a p t e r s 7 and 8 (skim last h a l f of b o t h chapters) 2. See B i b l i o g r a p h y for s u p p l e m e n t a l r e a d i n g 3. Note: text and s u p p l e m e n t a l r e a d i n g on E x p e r t Ease and EXSYS will m a x i m i z e y o u r r e t u r n from the demonstrations.
SESSION
Expert
Systems of E x p e r t
Ease
and SYSEX
IV - NRL Tour
A.
Navy Research
Lab
(NRL)
Tour
B.
Assignment I. Clifton, Pat 0., " A R T I F I C I A L I N T E L L I G E N C E - A FRIENDLY' I N T R O D U C T I O N " , A i r U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s ( R e s e a r c h R e p o r t No A U - A R I - 8 5 - 1 ) , M a r c h 1985 (report in y o u r p r o f e s s i o n a l library) 2. See B i b l i o g r a p h y for s u p p l e m e n t a l r e a d i n g
1-5
'USER
Expert
Computer
Systems
PHASE
SESSION
Syllabus
2 - DEVELOPING
V - DEVELOPING
EXPERT
AN EXPERT
SYSTEMS,
AN OVERVIEW
A.
P r e r e q u i s i t e s for D e v e l o p m e n t i. Suitability 2. Possible Design Goals 3. Feasibility 4. C r i t i c a l A s p e c t s of a P r o b l e m 5. H o w to P i c k a P r o b l e m
B.
Six
C.
A Case
D.
Assignment I. Harmon - Chapter 2. See B i b l i o g r a p h y
SESSION
VI
Steps
in B u i l d i n g
Study
a Small
Expert
System
= XCON
BUILDING
-
SYSTEM
A SMALL
ii for s u p p i e m e n t a l
EXPERT
SYSTEM,
reading
Part
I
A.
Microcomputer
B.
Where
C.
"Building Your First Expert i. The T e x t 2. The P r o g r a m = M I C R O - P S
D.
Building Your First Expert System i. Review 2. Building An Expert System with MICRO-PS
E.
Assignment i. N a g y - s k i m C h a p t e r s 1-4, C h a p t e r 2. H a r m o n - s k i m C h a p t e r s 9 a n d I0 3. See B i b l i o g r a p h y for s u p p l e m e n t a l
SESSION
VII
-
Familiarization
A r e We G o i n g ?
BUILDING
A.
Review
B.
Attachments
A SMALL
EXPERT
System"
SYSTEM,
1-6
reading
Part
DEMOI and T h e A t t a c h m e n t
5
Section
II
Expert
Computer
Systems
Syllabus
i. 2. 3.
General Nondeclared Attachments Declared Attachments
C.
Some i. 2.
User Friendly Features M a n y - for e x a m p l e : Error Detection
D.
More i. 2. 3. 4. 5.
on Commands/Knowledge Base Structure "message" Command Revisited "askfor" Command "justify" Command C o m m a n d s for S c r e e n C o n t r o l "if-then-endif" and "if-then-else-endif"
m.
Demonstrate
F.
Computer
G.
Assignment I. N a g y - C h a p t e r 6, s k i m C h a p t e r 7 2. H a r m o n - s k i m C h a p t e r 12 3. See Bibliography for s u p p l e m e n t a l
SESSION
VIII
DEM02
Lab
Session
- BUILDING
EXPERT
SYSTEM,
A.
Computer
B.
Assignment i. Nagy - skim Chapters 8 and 9 2. H a r m o n - s k i m C h a p t e r 15 3. See Bibliography for s u p p l e m e n t a l
SESSION
IX
- Guest
Lab
A SMALL
PART
III
Session
Speaker/TITAN
speaker
reading
A.
Guest
- Mr
Ron
B.
Assignment i. Harmon - Chapter 2. See B i b l i o g r a p h y
reading
Demonstration Shattuck
13 for
1-7
supplemental
reading
Structures
Expert
Computer
Systems
PHASE
SESSION A.
X
- THE The
The
PLAYERS
2. 3. 4.
Military
Applications
of AI
Technology
T y p e s of I n t e l l i g e n t W e a p o n s a n d B a t t l e Aids Potential Applications P r o b l e m s to O v e r c o m e Case Study - DARPA's Strategic Computer
Assignment i. See Bibliography
XI
Challenge
I C O T - I n s t i t u t e for N e w G e n e r a t i o n C o m p u t e r T e c h n o l o g y MCC - Microelectronics and Computer Technology Corporation DARPA - Defence Advanced Research Project Agency Others
Potential i.
SESSION
THE
CHALLENGE
Players
3. 4.
D.
AND
WORLDWIDE
The Fifth Generation At S t a k e The Response
i. 2.
C.
3 - THE
Game
i. 2. 3. B.
GAME
Syllabus
- The
Military's
speaker
for
Role
A.
Guest
C.
Assignment i. Harmon - Chapter 2. See Bibliography
supplemental
in t h e
Future
Management
Initiative
reading
of AI
- DARPA
14 for
1-8
supplemental
reading
Expert
Computer
Systems
PHASE
SESSION
XII
-
Syllabus
4 - COURSE
SUMMARY
SUMMARY
A.
Advantages
and disadvantages
B.
Future
C.
Preparing
D.
Course Highlights i. P h a s e 1 = I n t r o d u c t i o n and O v e r v i e w 2. P h a s e 2 = D e v e l o p i n g an E x p e r t S y s t e m 3. Phase 3 = The Worldwide Challenge 4. Phase 4 = Course Summary
E.
Review
of C o u r s e
F.
Course
Critique
F.
Assignment i. H a r m o n - C h a p t e r s 14 and 16 2. See B i b l i o g r a p h y for s u p p l e m e n t a l
of K n o w l e d g e
of AI
Systems
for the K n o w l e d g e
System
Revolution
Objectives
1-9
reading
13.140-I/IG S p r i n g 86
EXPERT
COMPUTER
SYSTEMS
FOR
INSTRUCTOR
SUBJECT:
SESSION
Purpose.
2.
Obj e c t i v e s A.
B. science.
LESSON
I - INTRODUCTION
GOALS
i.
GOVERNMENT
To i n t r o d u c e
To i n t r o d u c e To m o t i v a t e
EXECUTIVES
GUIDE
TO A R T I F I C I A L
INTELLIGENCE
& OBJECTIVES
the c o u r s e
and the
course methodology the s t u d e n t
field of study.
and o b j e c t i v e s .
in h i s / h e r
s t u d y of c o m p u t e r
C. To i n t r o d u c e the r a p i d l y d e v e l o p i n g f i e l d of p r a c t i c a l a r t i f i c i a l i n t e l l i g e n c e e m p h a s i s i n g the most s u c c e s s f u l a r e a of p r a c t i c a l a p p l i c a t i o n s - k n o w l e d g e b a s e d e x p e r t c o m p u t e r systems. D. current
To s t i m u l a t e and p o t e n t i a l
the s t u d e n t ' s i m a g i n a t i o n by i n t r o d u c i n g a p p l i c a t i o n s for this n e w t e c h n o l o g y .
E. To a c q u a i n t the s t u d e n t w i t h the h i s t o r y of the d e v e l o p m e n t of the computer, a r t i f i c i a l i n t e l l i g e n c e , and the s t a t e - o f - t h e - a r t in c o m p u t e r technology.
COORDINATION
.
Student
A.
Handouts
Course
Syllabus
(13.140-2/SH)
2-1
Expert
B. 2.
Computer
Course
Classroom A.
Instructor
Systems
Bibliography
Setup Requirements
Viewgraph
IRC Support
Requirements.
in a p p r o p r i a t e
Computer/program
L E S S O N
I.
Guide
(13.140-3/SH)
B. S p e c i f i e d n u m b e r of K A Y P R O C o m p u t e r s c l a s s r o o m w i t h "Eliza" p r o g r a m d i s k for each. 3.
Lesson
setup.
O U T L I N E
Lecture A.
Overview •
2. 3.
of C o u r s e
(VG I-l)
Introduce instructor(s) Conduct informal survey State Course Objectives
of class' (VG I-2)
computer
expertise
- c o u r s e for m a n a g e r s NOT " t e c h i e s " - to i n c r e a s e a w a r e n e s s N O T t e a c h m e c h a n i c s .
Review Course Bibliography
Outline,
Assignments,
and
- v o l u m t i n o u s r e a d i n g a s s i g n m e n t s o p t i o n a l for student edification - m a n y a s s i g n e d a r t i c l e s short, e a s y r e a d i n g 5.
Other
administrative
items
- computer jargon - DON'T questions - PLEASE! B.
Demonstration
- Meet
LET ME!
"Eliza"
d e v e l o p e d in 1 9 6 5 ' s b y J o s e p h W e i z e n b a u m of M I T as d e m o n s t r a t i o n of AI - N O T an e x p e r t system, m e r e l y c l e v e r p r o g r a m m i n g - see a r t i c l e in t h i s w e e k s u p p l e m e n t a l r e a d i n g f o r more information -
C.
Computers
and Computer
Technology
2-2
Expert
Computer
i. 2.
Systems
Instructor
Why should managers W h a t is a c o m p u t e r ?
study computer (VG I-4)
parts h a r d w a r e vs s o f t w a r e - bits/bytes into usefulness - Von Nuemann (John Von Neumann) - algorithm
Lesson
science?
Guide
(vG
~-3)
-
-
3.
Evolution
of
the
computer
(VG
architecture
I-5)
- n o t e a c c e l e r a t i o n of t e c h n o l o g y o v e r years - e m p h a s i z e m i l i t a r y ' s r o l e in p u s h i n g o f - t h e - a r t d u e to n e e d 4.
Where
are we
today
and where
are
we
last the
i0 state-
going?
- c h i p t e c h n o l o g y - LSI to V L S I to V H S I C - m e m o r y - 64 X 1 K to 1 M e g a b y t e c h i p to CD - i n t e r f a c e - p a p e r t a p e to p u n c h c a r d s to C R T natural language s o f t w a r e - m a c h i n e l a n g u a g e to s p r e a d s h e e t s expert systems
-
D.
What i.
is A r t i f i c i a l Definition
to to
Intelligence? (VG
I-6)
- define "inference" (the p r o c e s s b y w h i c h n e w f a c t s are d e r i v e d f r o m k n o w f a c t s ) - " m o d u s p o n e n s " = b a s i c r u l e of l o g i c t h a t a s s e r t s : if A i m p l i e s B a n d A is fact, t h e n B c a n be a s s u m e d , e x a m p l e : R u l e 1 - If t h e s k y is black, t h e n it K n o w n f a c t - T h e s k y is b l a c k • N e w fact - It is n i g h t ( f r o m r u l e I). 2. 3. 4. E.
Current
i
•
2. F.
The AI F a m i l y T r e e (VG I-7) H i s t o r y of AI (VG I-8) W h y so m u c h h o o p - l a a b o u t A I ? and
Future
Applications
(VG
of AI
Current Applications (VG 1-10) Potential Applications (VG I-ll)
Problem
Areas
(VG
1-12)
2-3
I-9)
is n i g h t .
Expert
G.
Computer
Next -
o
3.
Systems
Week
Instructor
- Session
II
- Knowledge
What are they? How do they differ from What good are they? How do they work?
Demonstration. Practical
Meet
Exercise.
"Eliza" None
2-4
today's
Based
Lesson
Expert
computer
Guide
Systems
software?
Expert Computer Systems
I n s t r u c t o r L e s s o n Guide
13.140-2/IG S P R I N G 86
EXPERT
COMPUTER
SYSTEMS
INSTRUCTOR
SUBJECT:
FOR
GOVERNMENT
LESSON
GUIDE
S E S S I O N II - K N O W L E D G E D - B A S E D
GOALS
AND
EXECUTIVES
EXPERT S Y S T E M S
OVERVIEW
OBJECTIVES
i. Purpose. To i n t r o d u c e and f a m i l i a r i z e the s t u d e n t w i t h k n o w l e d g e - b a s e d e x p e r t c o m p u t e r systems. 2.
Objectives
A. To define, clarify, and m a k e sense of the claims, promises, and r e a l i t i e s of p r a c t i c a l AI a p p l i c a t i o n s . B. To a c q u i r e an u n d e r s t a n d i n g of and a p p r e c i a t i o n for the a p p l i c a t i o n s , c a p a b i l i t i e s , and l i m i t a t i o n s of e x p e r t c o m p u t e r systems. C. To c o m p a r e and c o n t r a s t h u m a n p r o b l e m s o l v i n g w i t h the s t a t e - o f - t h e - a r t c o m p u t e r p r o b l e m solving.
COORDINATION
i.
S t u d e n t Handouts.
None
2.
C l a s s r o o m Setup R e q u i r e m e n t s .
3.
IRC S u p p o r t R e q u i r e m e n t s .
LESSON
Viewgraph
None
OUTLINE
2-5
Expert
i.
Computer
Systems
Instructor
Lesson
Guide
Lecture A.
Basic .
Concepts
and
techniques
Computer Aided Decision 1985) (VG II-l) a.
Data-based Systems includes data base i) D a t a
Base
Making
(Steven
= software
Management
2) M a n a g e m e n t
system
System
- software that manages e x a m p l e = d B a s e II Information
W.
Oxman
that
(DBMS)
data
in d a t a
System
(MIS)
base
- software that stores, processes, retrieves, and disseminates information in D B M S - examples = report generation and telecommunication packages 3)
Decision
Support
Systems
(DSS)
- software that enhances decision makers e f f e c t i v e n e s s in u s i n g d a t a f r o m D B M S or MIS - o f t e n p r e s e n t s i n f o r m a t i o n in g r a p h s or charts - two catagories = user interface support and models - e x a m p l e = t r e n d or f o r e c a s t i n g a n a l y s i s packages b.
Knowledge-based Systems that includes knowledge m e a n i n g of data) i) N a t u r a l
Language
= software systems data base (data and
Systems
- s o f t w a r e t h a t a c t s as u s e r i n t e r f a c e c o m m u n i c a t e in f l e x i b l e f r a m e w o r k c o m m o n to u s e r 2)
Expert
Systems
- software that uses about the behavior
2-6
knowledge (rules of e l e m e n t s of a
to
Expert
Computer
Systems
Instructor
Lesson
Guide
p a r t i c u l a r s u b j e c t d o m a i n ) , facts, and i n f e r e n c e t e c h n i q u e s ( r e a s o n i n g ) to solve problems that normally require t h e a b i l i t i e s of h u m a n e x p e r t s names (VG II-2) goals (VG II-3) - common properties, characteristics, and features (VG II-4) -
-
.
Human
Problem
Solving
(Paul
Harmon,
David
King
1985) a.
Human i)
Information
Processing
(VG
II-5)
Input - c o g n i t i v e p r o c e s s o r (like CPU) c y c l e s to o b t a i n i n f o r m a t i o n f r o m s e n s o r y b u f f e r and t r a n s f e r s it to w o r k i n g m e m o r y ( l i k e " f e t c h execute" cycle) - for s i m p l e t a s k s = c o g n i t i v e s y s t e m to m o t o r o u t p u t w i t h l i t t l e or no t h o u g h t - for c o m p l e x t a s k s = m u s t u s e l o n g t e r m memory
2)
Memory = stored indexing system -
-
-
3)
symbols
with
complex
simple model " s c r i p t s " = like h o w to m e e t s o m e o n e . " c h u n k s " = c l u s t e r s of s y m b o l s o r p a t t e r n of s t i m u l i h i e r a r c h i c a l l y o r g a n i z e to f o r m v a s t n e t w o r k • learning = linking and revising links b e t w e e n t h e s e c h u n k s of d a t a short term memory (working space) . 3 to 7 a c t i v a t e d c h u n k s due l i m i t e d r e s o u r c e s of h u m a n c o g n i t i v e p r o c e s s e s "focus" o n c e r t a i n c h u n k s l i k e s c r e e n on spreadsheet program long term memory . h o l d s i n d i v i d u a l s m a s s of a c c u m u l a t e d knowledge . trick not storing but retrieving info • t a k e 7 s e c o n d s p e r c h u n k to l i n k i n f o in long term memory Output - after
scanning
2-7
and
searching
memory,
Expert
Computer
Systems
Instructor
Lesson
i n f o r m a t i o n s e n t to m o t o r s y s t e m in s o m e o b s e r v a b l e a c t i v i t y b.
Problem i) 2)
Guide
resulting
Solving
Divergent Varieties
vs C o n v e r g e n t of K n o w l e d g e
Reasoning
(VG II-6)
- s u r f a c e k n o w l e d g e = h e u r i s t i c s ( r u l e s of thumb) from experience - deep knowledge = principles, axioms, and laws from books 3) V a r i e t i e s - well
of P r o b l e m s
and ill-defined
4) V a r i e t i e s
problems
of t e c h n i q u e s
- familiar problem = systematically gather relative information, build prototype solution, ignor irrelevant details, revise h y p o t h e s i s in l i g h t of r e s t r a i n s unfamiliar problem = struggle, guess, experiment - b o t h c a s e s = g o o d t h e o r y of p r o b l e m solving, good heuristics will help -
c.
Expert -
-
-
.
Knowledge
(VG II-7)
A n e x p e r t = i n d i v i d u a l w h o is w i d e l y r e c o g n i z e d as b e i n g a b l e to s o l v e a particular type problem that most cannot s o l v e as e f f i c i e n t l y or e f f e c t i v e l y 5 0 - 1 0 0 K c h u n k s of h e u r i s t i c i n f o r m a t i o n t a k e s a b o u t i0 y e a r s to a c q u i r e most expert systems include only surface k n o w l e d g e to l i m i t s i z e of k n o w l e d g e b a s e
A r c h i t e c t u r e of a K n o w l e d g e - b a s e d ( S t e v e n W. O x m a n 1985) (VG II-8) Knowledge Base - Working Memory
System
contains rules and facts that embody the system's knowledge
-
. k i n d s of k n o w l e d g e (VG II-9) - Inference
Expert
Engine
in a k n o w l e d g e
= a computer
2-8
base
program
that
Expert
Computer
Systems
Instructor
Lesson
Guide
c o n t a i n s the i n f e r e n c e s t r a t e g i e s a n d c o n t r o l s t h a t m a n i p u l a t e the f a c t s a n d r u l e s of the knowledge base - User
Interface
Explanation
-
Subsystem
computer program(s) a l l o w u s e r to e n t e r and rules, a n d a s k questions
that facts
- Knowledge Acquisition Facility = a computer program that provides a dialogue between the s y s t e m a n d the h u m a n e x p e r t for a c q u i r i n g k n o w l e d g e a n d p l a c e s r u l e s in k n o w l e d g e b a s e 4.
Production
System
as a P r o c e s s i n g
Model
c o m p a r e a n d c o n t r a s t r u l e vs f a c t - " M o d u s p o n e n s " = b a s i c r u l e of l o g i c (If A i m p l i e s B (rule) a n d A is the c a s e (fact) t h e n we c a n a s s u m e B), e x a m p l e : R u l e 1 = N o v 2 8 t h is S u s a n ' s b i r t h d a y • F a c t = T o d a y is N o v 2 8 t h • N e w F a c t = T o d a y is S u s a n ' s b i r t h d a y - so, a p p l y p r o d u c t i o n r u l e ( i f - t h e n s t a t e m e n t ) to w o r k i n g m e m o r y (facts), if t h e y s u c c e e d , t h e n c o n t r i b u t e n e w f a c t to m e m o r y ! powerful model because discrete, simple, flexible -
-
.
Strategies a.
for R e p r e s e n t i n g
Semantic
Knowledge
(VG
II-10)
Networks
- n e t w o r k of n o d e s c o n n e c t e d b y l i n k s n o d e s u s e d to r e p r e s e n t o b j e c t s o r descriptors links relate objects and discriptors e x a m p l e = (VG II-ll) . o b j e c t s c a n be n o u n s or c o n c e p t u a l e n t i t i e s (acts, e v e n t s , or a b s t r a c t categories) • links can represent class/instance r e l a t i o n s h i p (is-a), p r o p e r t i e s ( h a s - a ) , h e u r i s t i c k n o w l e d g e ( c a u s e s ) , o r be d e f i n i t i o n a l (wears) - a d v a n t a g e s = f l e x i b i l e , i n h e r i t a n c e (one n o d e i n h e r i t s c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of a n o t h e r ) - d i s a d v a n t a g e = d i f f i c u l t y in h a n d l i n g e x c e p t i o n s (what is W i l s o n = o n e a r m e d man?) -
-
-
b.
Object-Attribute-Value
2-9
(O-A-V)
Triplets
Expert
Computer
Systems
Instructor
Lesson
Guide
- objects = physical (door) or conceptional (bank loan) entities - attributes = general characteristics or properties associated with objects (size, shape, interest rate) - value = specific nature of attribute in particular situation (green, 12%) example = (VG II-12) some features: remove value = from dynamic to static instance • order/ralationship of o b j e c t s = t r e e s can modify with "certainty" factor to handle uncertainty -
-
c.
Rules
(VG
II-13)
- each part of "premise" called "expression" o r "if c l a u s e " - "conclusion" contains "expression(s)" or "then clause(es)" logical operators, "and" a n d "or" - certainty factor applicable to rules too -
d.
Frames
(VG
II-14)
- frame = discription of o b j e c t w h i c h c o n t a i n s "slots" for all information associated with object - slot = may contain values, point to other frames, sets of rules, or procedures to obtain values - advantage = allow for richer representation of facts disadvantage = m o r e c o m p l e x a n d m o r e difficult to develop than O-A-V/Rule systems NOTE: (VG I I - 1 5 ) . frames, O-A-V, and rule systems are special cases of semantic network . s a m e f a c t s c a n be r e p r e s e n t e d in any one of three systems -
-
e.
Logical
Expressions
- two common forms = propositional predicate calculus - propositional logic • = statements that are true or t h e n C)
2-10
logic
false
and
(if
A,
Expert
Computer
Systems
-
6.
Lesson
Guide
• c a n l i n k w i t h A N D / O R (if A a n d B, t h e n C) predicate calculus = e x t e n s i o n or p r o p o s i t i o n a l l o g i c to f o r c e t r u e of f a l s e s t a t e m e n t ( " ( i s - r e d (ball) = a b a l l is r e d ) " ) n o t e - s t a t e m e n t t r u e or f a l s e • can address multiple objects ("daughter-of (Emily, S u s a n ) " = E m i l y is t h e d a u g h t e r of Susan) . can link with Boolian AND/OR ("daughter-of (Emily, S u s a n ) A N D ( d a u g h t e r - o f ( K a r e n , Susan)") • c a n "nest" p r e d i c a t e s ("condition(sleeve (coat), s h i n y ) " ) - Note - logical formulations represents knowledge differently then other methods, facts retrieved only by asking true/false question
Drawing a.
Instructor
Inferences
Inference
Engine
stands between user and knowledge base - two tasks . examines existing facts and rules, and adds new facts when possible d e c i d e s in w h i c h o r d e r i n f e r e n c e s a r e m a d e - the h e a r t of the e x p e r t s y s t e m b u t q u i t e simple because human inference simple but combine great knowledge base and w e l l - c h o o s e n h e u r i s t i c s a l l o w i n g e x p e r t to q u i c k l y c u t p r o b l e m d o m a i n to m a n a g e a b l e size -
b.
Guiding
Inference
- modus ponens = most common inference strategy • s i m p l e rule, e a s i l y u n d e r s t o o d . c e r t a i n v a l i d i m p l i c a t i o n s c a n n o t be d r a w n u s i n g t h i s r u l e (if B is false, m o s t systems cannot reach the conclusion that A is t h e r e f o r e false, c a l l e d " m o d u s t o l l e n s " ) - reasoning with uncertainty . r u l e f a l s e if f a c t ( s ) u n k n o w n . r u l e s i n c l u d e d in k n o w l e d g e b a s e to provide knowledge about incomplete i n f o r m a t i o n (cf l e s s t h a n 0.2 = f a l s e or
2-11
Expert
Computer
Systems
-
c.
Instructor
if u n k n o w n , a s k ) "resolution" = a modus systems
ponens
Lesson
of
Guide
logical
Control - two problems • where to start way to resolve conflict when alternative lines of reasoning emerge - search strategies (Frederick Hayes-Roth i985) • back-chaining (or g o a l - d i r e c t e d ) = begin with goal and successively examine any rule(s) with matching conclusion • forward-chaining (stimulus or data-driven) = rule "fires" when working memory facts match premise • depth-first vs breadth-first searches (VG II-i6) • combination = like humans - monotonic vs nonmontonic reasoning • mono = true facts remain true • nonmono = true facts may be retracted • most of todays systems use monotonic reasoning because complication of undoing process
B. Strengths/Weaknesses, Advantages/Disadvantages, Promises/Myths of Expert Systems .
2.
Problem Domain of Existing Techniques (VG II-17) (Paul Harmon, David King 1985) - the barriers • hardware = existing computers not fast enough (solution = parallel processing systems or fifth generation computers) software = handle nonmonotonic problems with great difficulty (solution = machine that can learn from own experience, "machine learning") - both problems will limit knowledge system development over next several years Advantages/Disadvantages a.
(Mike
Turner
Advantages -
financial . productivity improvements • increased business volume
2-12
1985)
Expert
Computer
Systems
Instructor
Lesson
Guide
quantifiable • faster turnaround . faster response time • time saved on routine tasks . time saved in learning or coping with new working methods • faster access to expertise - qualitative • improved knowledge quality and accessibility changes to ability of staff to perform work effectively i m p r o v e d q u a l i t y of s e r v i c e s -
b.
Disadvantages - f i n a n c i a l , c o s t of: • equipment purchases • system software development • specialist staff and support
C•
Next
Week
= Session
III-
Existing
Expert
structure Systems
and
Tools - a l o o k at AI l a n g u a g e s , p r o g r a m m i n g environments, and Tools - including demonstrations of Expert-Ease and SYSEX, two expert system tools available for microcomputers
2.
Demonstrations•
3.
Practical
None
Exercises.
None
2-13
Expert Computer Systems
I n s t r u c t o r L e s s o n Guide
13.140-3/IG S P R I N G 86
EXPERT
COMPUTER
SYSTEMS
FOR
INSTRUCTOR
SUBJECT:
GOVERNMENT
LESSON
EXECUTIVES
GUIDE
S E S S I O N III - E X I S T I N G E X P E R T SYSTEMS AND T O O L S
GOALS
& OBJECTIVES
i. P u r p o s e . To f a m i l i a r i z e the student w i t h the c u r r e n t s t a t e - o f - t h e - a r t in the d e v e l o p m e n t of E x p e r t S y s t e m s and Tools. 2.
Objectives
A. To a c q u a i n t the s e n i o r e x e c u t i v e w i t h AI c o m p u t e r l a n g u a g e s and p r o g r a m m i n g e n v i r o n m e n t s w i t h e m p h a s i s on c o m m e r c i a l l y a v a i l a b l e e x p e r t s y s t e m tools for m i c r o p r o c e s s o r s . B. To e x p l o r e the d i f f i c u l t i e s d e v e l o p m e n t of an e x p e r t system.
a s s o c i a t e d w i t h the
C. To give the s e n i o r e x e c u t i v e an a p p r e c i a t i o n p o t e n t i a l a p p l i c a t i o n s for AI technology.
for future
COORDINATION
i.
Student
2.
Classroom Setup Requirements A.
Handouts.
None
Viewgraph
B. A 16-bit c o m p u t e r and p r o j e c t o r in s p e c i f i e d c l a s s r o o m w i t h c o p i e s of E X P E R T EASE and EXSYS software. 3.
IRC S u p p o r t R e q u i r e m e n t s .
Computer/software
2-14
setup.
Expert
Computer
Systems
Instructor
L E S S O N
i.
Lesson
Guide
O U T L I N E
Lesson A.
Languages,
Tools
and
Systems
(Paul
Harmon,
David
King
1985) .
B a s i c C o n c e p t s - L e v e l s of S o f t w a r e ( b e t w e e n p r o b l e m and c o m p u t e r h a r d w a r e ) (VG I I I - l )
human
- machine language = binary code - operating system = handles utility functions high-level languages . examples: FORTRAN, BASIC . i n t e r p r e t e r vs c o m p i l e r - programming environment = special packages . e x a m p l e : F O R T R A N l i b r a r y of s u b r o u t i n e s - t o o l s (or s h e l l s ) = to f a c i l i t a t e r a p i d d e v e l o p m e n t of u s e f u l " s y s t e m s " . examples: spreadsheet, EXPERT EASE - s y s t e m = c o m b i n a t i o n of t o o l a n d k n o w l e d g e in specific problem domain 2.
Tools a.
(VG III-2) Knowledge
(Mike
Acquisition
Turner
1985)
Products
generate rules from user-provided examples - r u l e s f o r m k n o w l e d g e b a s e for s u b s e q u e n t consultations -
b.
Expert
System
Shells
(or T o o l s )
- expert system without knowledge base (example: E M Y C I N f r o m M Y C I N ) - d e s i g n e d to f a c i l i t a t e r a p i d d e v e l o p m e n t knowledge systems (example: spreadsheet) H O W E V E R , u s u a l l y d e s i g n e d to a d d r e s s s p e c i f i c c l a s s of p r o b l e m advantages (VG I I I - 3 ) c. 3.
AI
AI L a n g u a g e s
and P r o g r a m m i n g
Environments
Languages
- m o s t AI p r o g r a m m i n g d o n e in o n e of t w o h i g h - l e v e l l a n g u a g e s = L I S P or P R O L O G - AI l a n g u a g e c o n s t r u c t s f a c i l i t a t e d e v e l o p i n g
2-15
of
Expert
Computer
Systems
Instructor
Lesson
Guide
symbolic computing programs j u s t as i t e r a t i v e constructs are useful for numerical programming - LISP (LISt Processing) i n v e n t e d in 1 9 6 0 ' s b y J o h n M c C a r t h y second oldest computer programming language s t i l l in u s e ( f i r s t = F O R T R A N ) consist of operations that facilitate creation of programs that manipulate list PROLOG (PROgramming LOGic) i n v e n t e d in 1 9 7 2 b y A l a i n C o l m e r a u e r (U of Marseilles) • language of Japanese Fifth Generation Project • contains constructs t h a t m a k e it e a s y to w r i t e programs that manipulate logical expressions -
B.
Tools .
or
Shells
Categories of (Paul Harmon,
Tools David
(or S h e l l s ) King 1985)
small system building tools • for personal computers • less than 400 rules • examples = E X P E R T EASE, E X S Y S - large, narrow system building tools . 500 t o s e v e r a l t h o u s a n d r u l e s • run on LISP machines or larger constrained to 1 g e n e r a l c o n s u l t a t i o n • e x a m p l e s = S.I, T I M M - large, hybrid system building tools • 5 0 0 to s e v e r a l t h o u s a n d r u l e s • run on LISP machines or larger . include features of several different consultation paradigms e x a m p l e s = KEE, L O O P S -
2.
Consultation
paradigm
Paradigms
- paradigm = describes generic types of problemsolving scenarios (example = diagnosis/ prescription paradigm, used in most commercial tools) - typical paradigms = (VG I I I - 4 ) 3.
Problem
Solving
Strategies
(VG
III-5)
- t h e p r o b l e m to b e s o l v e d w i l l o f t e n d i c t a t e the knowledge representation, inference, and control strategies (software techniques) to b e u s e d - two extremes:
2-16
Expert
Computer
Systems
Instructor
Lesson
Guide
. u s e a v a i l a b l e tool • use custom-assembled t e c h n i q u e - no t o o l or standard paradigm (longer development, higher c o s t b u t p r o b l e m m i g h t n o t fit a v a i l a b l e techniques) B.
Existing i.
Expert
Systems
(Mike
Turner
1985)
PROSPECTOR - a s y s t e m w h i c h a c t s as a g e o l o g i c a l a d v i s o r - credited with finding $i00 million moybdenum d e p o s i t in W a s h i n g t o n S t a t e in 1 9 8 2
2.
DRILLING
ADVISOR
- diagnoses drilling problems and offers recommendations for c o r r e c t i v e a c t i o n - p a y s b a c k its r e s e a r c h a n d d e v e l o p m e n t f e w t i m e s it is u s e d 3.
costs
each
INDUCE - b y u s i n g k n o w l e d g e a b o u t h o w to l e a r n f r o m examples has become the world's primary authority on s o y a b e a n d i s e a s e d i a g n o s i s
4.
XCON - configures minicomputer l a y - o u t s for D i g i t a l Equipment - c o r r e c t o v e r 99% of cases, r e c o r d b e t t e r t h a n human configuration specialists - c a s e s t u d y of X C O N in S e s s i o n V
5.
STEAMER - t e a c h N a v y p e r s o n n e l h o w to o p e r a t e s h i p b o a r d steamplants - s i m u l a t e s a f r i g a t e s t e a m p l a n t on c o l o r d i s p l a y - e n a b l e s u s e r to e x p e r i m e n t w i t h v a r i o u s o p e r a t i n g procedures - c a n e x p l a i n its o p e r a t i o n a n d t e r m i n o l o g y
C.
Demonstrations i.
EXPERT
2.
EXSYS
EASE
2-17
Expert
D.
Computer
Next
Systems
Week
- meet
.
.
in
=
Instructor
SESSION
front
of
IV
NWC
-
NAVY
RESEARCH
building
at
Demonstrations. A.
EXPERT
B.
SYSEX
Practical
EASE
Exercise.
None
2-18
1530
LAB
Lesson
TOUR
hours
Guide
Expert
Computer
Systems
Instructor
Lesson
Guide
13.140-5/IG S p r i n g 86
EXPERT
COMPUTER
SYSTEMS
FOR
INSTRUCTOR
SUBJECT:
i. Purpose. difficulties 2.
LESSION
SESSION V - DEVELOPING
GOALS
GOVERNMENT
EXECUTIVES
GUIDE
EXPERT
SYSTEMS,
AN O V E R V I E W
& OBJECTIVES
To f a m i l i a r i z e the s e n i o r e x e c u t i v e w i t h the a s s o c i a t e d w i t h the d e v e l o p m e n t of an e x p e r t system.
Objectives
A. To a c q u i r e an u n d e r s t a n d i n g of and a p p r e c i a t i o n c a p a b i l i t i e s and l i m i t a t i o n s of e x p e r t c o m p u t e r systems. B. To e x p l o r e the d i f f i c u l t i e s d e v e l o p m e n t of an e x p e r t system. C. To f u r t h e r c l a r i f y p r a c t i c a l AI a p p l i c a t i o n s .
associated
the p r o m i s e s
Student
2.
Classroom
3.
IRC S u p p o r t
Handouts.
None
Setup Requirements. Requirements.
Viewgraph
None
LESSON
OUTLINE
2-19
the
and r e a l i t i e s
COORDINATION
i.
with
of
for the
Expert
1.
Computer
Systems
Instructor
Lesson
Guide
Lesson A.
Prerequisites i.
for
Development
(Mike
Turner
1985)
Suitability - m u s t f i r s t d e t e r m i n e if e x p e r t s y s t e m t e c h n i q u e s are a p p l i c a b l e (or a r e conventional methods better suited?) - positive and negative indicators (VG V - l ) • NOT DOABLE USING CONVENTIONAL TECHNIQUES - must u s e u n c e r t a i n d a t a or k n o w l e d g e , o r c o m p u t a tionally infeasible • NON-COMPUTER STAFF - English-like f o r m of knowledge base makes editing easier EXPLAINATION REQUIRED - i n t r i n s i c to e x p e r t systems • USE KNOWLEDGE MORE THAN ONE WAY - can change i n f e r e n c e m o d u l e , f r o m d o i n g to t e a c h i n g ) RULES EASIER THAN EQUATIONS - example = s e t s of regulations
2.
Possible
3.
Feasibility - expert
Design
Goals
(VG V-2)
(VG V-3)
constraints
. must exist and must have ready access • e x p e r t m u s t be e n t h u s i a s t i c a b o u t c o o p e r a t i n g in d e v e l o p m e n t • e x p e r t m u s t be a b l e to e x p l a i n h i s s p e c i a l k n o w l e d g e a n d e x p e r i e n c e a n d m e t h o d u s e d to a p p l y to p a r t i c u l a r p r o b l e m - problem
constraints
• p r o b l e m d o m a i n m u s t be w e l l b o u n d e d a n d reasonably narrow . p r o b l e m s o l v i n g in d o m a i n s h o u l d n o t r e q u i r e t h e u s e of c o m m o n s e n s e r e a s o n i n g • p r i m a r y s o u r c e of e x p e r t ' s a b i l i t y m u s t be special knowledge, judgement, and e x p e r i e n c e • p r o b l e m s h o u l d t y p i c a l l y t a k e an e x p e r t b e t w e e n a few m i n u t e s a n d a f e w h o u r s to s o l v e - technology . knowledge
constraints must
2-20
be
efficiently
represented
in
Expert
Computer
Systems
Instructor
Lesson
Guide
current knowledge representation languages . e x p l a n a t i o n s t e n d to be r a t h e r s t y l i s e d a n d limited • most time-consuming to c o n s t r u c t . d i f f i c u l t to m a i n t a i n c o n s i s t e n c y a n d resolve conflicts within knowledge base d i f f i c u l t to h a n d l e o r i d e n t i f y p r o b l e m s at b o u n d a r i e s of k n o w l e d g e b a s e 4.
Critical a.
Aspects
of
a Problem
Reliability
of
Data
and
(VG V - 4 ) Knowledge
- no n o i s e ( e x t r a n e o u s d a t a ) n o r e r r o r s w h i c h m i g h t l e a d to i n c o n s i s t a n c i e s or i n c o r r e c t ness b.
Time
Dependency
of D a t a
- w h e t h e r d a t a is s t a t i c or n o t - if t a s k ' s h i s t o r y or c u r r e n t n e s s of d a t a i m p o r t a n t , t h e n the s y s t e m m u s t be a b l e to cope with time c.
Size
of
the
Search
Space
- in m a n y s y s t e m s d e s i r e d s o l u t i o n c a l l e d "goal", t h e n the set of p o s s i b l e s t e p s l e a d i n g f r o m i n i t i a l c o n d i t i o n to g o a l is v i e w e d as a " s e a r c h s p a c e " - s i m p l i e s t f o r m of s e a r c h s p a c e v i e w e d as t r e e s t r u c t u r e or n e t w o r k s e a r c h s p a c e c o n s i d e r e d " s m a l l " if f e a s i b l e to p r e d e f i n e i n f e r e n c e n e t w o r k - if s e a r c h i n g l a r g e space, s p e c i a l l y t a i l o r e d s e a r c h s p a c e s m u s t be g e n e r a t e d f o r e a c h a p p l i c a t i o n p r o b l e m (can u s e h e u r i s t i c s ) -
5.
How -
-
-
-
to P i c k
a Problem
data and knowledge certain d a t a are s t a t i c s e a r c h s p a c e is s m a l l in g e n e r a l s m a l l - s c a l e s u c c u s s f u l a p p l i c a t i o n s h a v e been: . a classificatory or d i a g n o s t i c p r o b l e m • modest goals • m a n a g e m e n t p r e p a r e d to c h a m p i o n p r o j e c t enthusiastic human expert available no r e q u i r e m e n t t h a t d e v e l o p m e n t be c o s t
2-21
Expert
Computer
Systems
Instructor
Lesson
Guide
justified B .
S i x S t e p s in B u i l d i n g a S m a l l E x p e r t (Paul Harmon, D a v i d K i n g 1985)
System
(VG V - 5 )
- s e l e c t a Tool i m p l i c i t l y c o m m i t to p a r t i c u l a r c o n s u l t a t i o n paradigm • software techniques (knowledege representation, inference and control strategies) • e a s e of u s e • fit p r o b l e m • c o s t of software~additional hardware (if r e q u i r e d ) - i d e n t i f y the p r o b l e m / a n a l y z e knowledge p r o b l e m b e f o r e Tool in real w o r l d knowledge acquisition phase design system • d e s i g n on p a p e r w/ f l o w d i a g r a m s and f e w r u l e s . f r o m a n a l y s i s to d e s i g n - develop a prototype • c r e a t e k n o w l e d g e b a s e and t e s t expand, t e s t and r e v i s e maintain and update • c o n t i n u e s for l i f e of s y s t e m o n s m a l l s y s t e m s c a n be d o n e b y p e o p l e w h o c r e a t e a n d use t h e m -
-
-
David
C. Case Study K i n g 1985) i.
= XCON
(Mike
Turner
1985
and Paul
Harmon,
XCON - operational expert system that routinely c o n f i g u r e s a n d c h e c k s for c o m p l e t e n e s s of D i g i t a l Equipment Corporation's (DEC) V A X - I I / 7 8 0 c o m p u t e r systems manages more complex planning (rather then c l a s s i f i c a t o r y or d i a g n o s t i c ) t a s k by: a v o i d a n c e of u n c e r t a i n t y of d a t a p r o b l e m b y c h e c k i n g for i n c o m p a t i b l e or m i s s i n g c o m p o n e n t s . a v o i d a n c e of u n c e r t a i n t y in c o n f i g u r a t i o n k n o w l e d g e , c o m p o n e n t s e i t h e r fit t o g e t h e r or do n o t . d e f i n i n g r e a s o n a b l e small p r o b l e m d o m a i n w i t h clearly defined limits • a v o i d s n e e d to t r y a l t e r n a t i v e c o n f i g u r a t i o n s b y c a r e f u l s t e p by s t e p p r o c e d u r e s so p a r t i a l c o n f i g u r a t i o n c a n a l w a y s be e x t e n d e d i n t o final correct configuration -
2-22
Expert
Computer
Systems
Instructor
2.
Development
3.
Current
Lesson
Guide
(VG V-6)
Status
of
XCON
- g r o w n f r o m 2 5 0 r u l e to 3 3 0 0 r u l e s y s t e m a b l e to configure all VAX and PDP systems sold in significant volumes - performs at v e r y h i g h l e v e l o f c o m p e t e n c e , as g o o d as c o n f i g u r a t i o n experts - system now managed and kept current entirely by DEC personnel spin-offs: XSEL salesperson's assistant • PTRANS = manufacturing management assistant • both using same knowledge basel -
-
4.
Benifits
to
DEC
- determines completeness of customer's orders soon after receipt (approximately 1.5 C P U m i n u t e s per) - more rapid turnround of orders - reduced number of unconfigurable systems delivered to customers - savings of around $i0 million per annum, roughly equal to development cost - an o v e r a l l i m p r o v e d l e v e l of c u s t o m e r service - h u m a n e x p e r t s n o w f r e e to f o c u s a l m o s t e n t i r e l y on various specialized configuration problems D.
Next
Week
= SESSION
- application
2.
Demonstration.
3.
Practical
of
the
VI
- BUILDING
methodology
None
Exercise.
None
2-23
AN
EXPERT
discussed
SYSTEM, today
Part
I
Expert
Computer
Systems
Instructor
Lesson
Guide
13.140-6/IG S P R I N G 86
EXPERT
SUBJECT:
COMPUTER SYSTEMS INSTRUCTOR
S E S S I O N VI
FOR GOVERNMENT LESSON GUIDE
- B U I L D I N G A SMALL
GOALS
EXECUTIVES
EXPERT
SYSTEM,
PART
I
& OBJECTIVES
i. Purpose. To f a m i l i a r i z e the s t u d e n t w i t h the 1 6 - b i t m i c r o c o m p u t e r s y s t e m s b e i n g u s e d and to i n t r o d u c e the E x p e r t S y s t e m Tool, MICRO-PS. 2.
Objectives
A. To f a m i l i a r i z e Disk O p e r a t i n g System. B.
To i n t r o d u c e
the s t u d e n t
the E x p e r t
with
System
the 1 6 - b i t m i c r o c o m p u t e r
Tool,
MICRO-PS.
C. To e q u i p the s t u d e n t w i t h s u f f i c i e n t k n o w l e d g e c o n c e r n i n g M I C R O - P S so that h e / s h e can b e g i n to f o r m u l a t e p r o b l e m to w h i c h the s t u d e n t can e m p l o y the Tool.
a
D. To e x p l o r e the d i f f i c u l t i e s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h the d e v e l o p m e n t of an e x p e r t s y s t e m t h r o u g h p r a c t i c a l a p p l i c a t i o n . COORDINATION
i.
Student
2.
Classroom
A. B. (for the
Handouts.
MS DOS G o u g e
(13.140-5/SH)
Setup Requirements
Viewgraph Twelve 16-bit microprocessors, printers i n s t r u c t o r ) in s p e c i f i e d classroom.
2-24
and one
projector
Expert
3.
Computer
IRC
Support
Systems
Instructor
Requirements.
Computer
L E S S O N
I.
Lesson
Guide
setup•
O U T L I N E
Lesson A.
Microcomputer
Familiarization
(use
Student
Handout)
- ON/OFF, Printer, Keyboard (include ) DOS, P r o m p t s , Commands (include "DIR") - How to backup your work (make working copy Supplemental T e x t E d i t o r (if a v a i l a b l e ) B.
Where
are
we
of
MICRO-PS)
going?
- familiarization with computer and MICRO-PS (i 1/2 w k s ) - build your own Expert System using MICRO-PS practical experience is t h e g o a l • use prudence in selecting your problem (ie, v e r y small, almost trivial) s t a r t t o f o r m u l a t e y o u r p r o b l e m as w e l e a r n t h e program C.
"Building .
.
D.
Your
First
Expert
System"
The Text - learning guide/manual for the expert system MICRO-PS - text divided into four parts: • Part 1 - Chapters 1-3 = I n t r o d u c t i o n • P a r t 2 - C h a p t e r s 4 - 9 = H o w to • Part 3 = MICRO-PS Manual • Part 4 = Glossary & Appendices
Tool,
The Program = MICRO-PS - s c a l e d down, t r a i n i n g v e r s i o n of K n o w l e d g e Engineering S y s t e m (KES) w i t h s i g n i f i c a n t limitations (see A p p e n d i x C, p a g e 277) - "PS" = P r o d u c t i o n System, means built on if-then rules - w e ' l l b r u s h t h r o u g h P a r t 1 a n d p a r t of P a r t 2 t h i s w e e k , n e x t w e e k w e ' l l l o o k at t h e r e s t o f P a r t 2, t h e n y o u a r e o n y o u r o w n ( e x p l a i n computer lab procedures/hours of operation)
Building
Your
First
Expert
2-25
System
Expert
Computer
i.
Systems
Lesson
Guide
Review a.
2.
Instructor
An Expert System (VG VI-I) - review parts (include Parser) - d e f i n e D o m a i n E x p e r t (as o p p o s e d t o K B A ) = expertise behind Expert System, can be p e r s o n , b o o k , etc. - define Knowledge Engineer = writes program
b.
Hallmarks of a n E x p e r t S y s t e m (VG V I - 2 ) - RELIABILITY = to keep user's confidence INTELLIGENT QUESTIONING = . explain Attribute = a variable or data element, basic building block of knowledge base explain Attachment = n o t e " a t t a c h e d " to various parts of your MICRO-PS program • how? (VG VI-3) - JUSTIFYING CONCLUSIONS = . enables user to assess rationality of advice • helps user reason like expert . powerful for debugging during development - NONNUMERICAL REASONING = f u l l s y s t e m c a n do both USER FRIENDLINESS = • c r i t e r i a = m i n i m a l t i m e to l e a r n , r e l e a r n , and use . features: -helps determine if a p p r o p r i a t e for user's problem -determines what information needed -explains questions -leads user to appropriate answer
c.
Most
Building a .
Suitable an E x p e r t
Applications System
with
(VG V I - 4 ) MICRO-PS
Demonstrate "DEMOI" - for illustration use very limited, non-user friendly Expert System which advises user how to change default disk drives - with DOS loaded type "A>micro-ps demol" - step students through options on their micros w i l l u s e D E M O I to i l l u s t r a t e MICRO-PS's structure/features
2-26
Expert
Computer
Systems
b.
Instructor
Lesson
Guide
S t e p s t o B u i l d an E x p e r t S y s t e m (VG VI-5) ANALYSIS = analyse goals, source(s) of knowledge, knowledge level of user, potential gain, difficulty to build and test, methodology to use DESIGN = describe knowledge base . f o u r s e c t i o n s of M I C R O - P S knowledge base: -THE ATTACHMENTS SECTION = to make program more user friendly -THE ATTRIBUTES SECTION = declare attributes . Attribute Hierarchy (VG V I - 6 ) -Input Attribute = value from user -Inferred Attribute = value from rules -THE RULES SECTION = lay out relationship between attributes -THE ACTION SECTION • Action Flow Chart for DEMOI (VG V I - 7 ) . OK, h o w d o e s it w o r k ?
1-Action Sections instructs Inference Engine (IE) to "Obtain" attribute (Operation) which becomes goal 2-IE checks to s e e if v a l u e of O p e r a t i o n known 3 - i f not, IE l o o k s f o r r u l e ( s ) w i t h O p e r a t i o n as consequent (if n o n e , a s s u m e s O p e r a t i o n = Input Attribute and asks for value) 4 - t h e n IE t e s t s r u l e ( s ) , if a n t e c e d e n t unknown sets new intermediate goal of antecedent, etc. - IMPLEMENT = write Action Sections - VERIFY = test ALL c.
One i)
2)
"Section"
at
Attributes,
Rules
and
possibilities
a Time
The Attributes Section u s e d to d e c l a r e v a r i a b l e s (attributes) to b e u s e d in s y s t e m (ie, e s t a b l i s h set of storage locations which have names, types, and value sets) - an a t t r i b u t e m u s t h a v e a u n i q u e n a m e , up to i0 w o r d s w i t h i0 l e t t e r s / n u m b e r s - two types, nonnumeric (smlt) and interger (int) syntax/example (VG V I - 8 ) in DEMOI (VG V I - 9 ) - limitations (VG V I - 1 0 ) The Rules Section - parts = antecedent consequent
2-27
- if p a r t - then part
Expert
Computer
Systems
Instructor
Lesson
Guide
m u s t h a v e u n i q u e name, up to i0 w o r d s w i t h i0 l e t t e r s / n u m b e r s - Rational Indicators and Connectors (VG V I - I I ) syntax/example (VG V I - 1 2 ) - o r d e r r u l e s in s a m e p a t t e r n e s t a b l i s h e d in A t t r i b u t e S e c t i o n ( e x c e p t i o n p a g e 125) - non Attribute user responses = " U N K N O W N " & "NONE" (see p a g e 216) in D E M O I (VG V I - 1 3 ) -
-
-
3) The A c t i o n S e c t i o n - C o m m a n d s = askfor, m e s s a g e , stop, obtain, d i s p l a y , etc. - s y n t a x d i f f e r (see S e c t i o n 5, p 2 2 7 ) DEMOI commands (VG V I - 1 4 ) • "obtain" command -syntax - " o b t a i n " in l o w e r c a s e - must match & appear in c o n s e q u e n t of at l e a s t o n e r u l e . "message" command -syntax - " m e s s a g e " in l o w e r c a s e -each line enclosed by double quotes - t e x t l i m i t e d to f o u r l i n e s -stand alone message ends with period • "display" command -syntax - " d i s p l a y v a l u e " in l o w e r c a s e - < a t t r i b u t e n a m e > e n c l o s e d in p a r e n t h e s e s , m u s t m a t c h , and a p p e a r as c o n s e q u e n t of at l e a s t o n e r u l e -
4)
E. SYSTEM,
Next Week P A R T II
Summary
- SESSION
of S e c t i o n s
VII
- BUILDING
(VG V I - 1 3 )
A SMALL
EXPERT
- w i l l h a v e o p p o r t u n i t y to b e g i n w o r k i n g o n y o u r f i r s t e x p e r t s y s t e m d u r i n g t h e n e x t c l a s s p e r i o d so a n y p r e p a r a t i o n b e t w e e n n o w and t h e n w i l l be t i m e w e l l spent
2. Demonstrations. D E M O I (Tom Nagy, D i c k Gault, a n d M o n i c a Nagy, B u i l d i n g Y o u r F i r s t E x p e r t System, A s h t o n - T a t e P u b l i s h i n g G r o u p 1985, p p 4 3 - 4 5
2-28
Expert Computer
3.
Practical
Systems
Exercises.
I n s t r u c t o r L e s s o n Guide
None
2-29
Expert
Computer
Systems
Instructor
Lesson
Guide
13.140-5/SH S P R I N G 86
MS
DOS
GETTING
GOUGE
STARTED
i. left 2. 3. side . 4.
P l a c e the MS DOS (or W o r k i n g ) D i s k i n t o D i s k D r i v e A (on h a n d side). C l o s e the d o o r o n the d i s k drive. T u r n o n c o m p u t e r ( O N / O F F s w i t c h is l o c a t e d o n the l e f t h a n d of the c o m p u t e r ) . after some buzzing and whirling, A n s w e r c u e s (ie, time, date), p r e s s i n g R e t u r n K e y a f t e r each. Note: s y n t a x for t i m e is < h o u r > : < m i n u t e s > s y n t a x for d a t e is < m o n t h > - < d a y > - < y e a r > y o u h a v e s u c c e s s f u l l y "booted" the O p e r a t i n g S y s t e m (MS DOS in t h i s case) w h e n the p r o m p t "A>" appears. You may now i n s t r u c t the c o m p u t e r to e x e c u t e a n y DOS c o m m a n d or to r u n a program• Note: t h i s p r o c e d u r e m a y be e m p l o y e d to b o o t t h e O p e r a t i n g S y s t e m d u r i n g s u b s e q u e n t s e s s i o n s by s u b s t i t u t i n g y o u r M I C R O - P S W o r k i n g D i s k for t h e MS DOS d i s k in the a b o v e p r o c e d u r e .
FORMATING
i 2. 3. 4. key. •
Place Place Close After
t h e MS DOS d i s k a b l a n k d i s k in both disk drive the p r o m p t "A>"
A WORKING
DISK 1
in D i s k D r i v e A. D i s k D r i v e B. doors. t y p e " F O R M A T B: /S"
and press
the
return
Note: the "/S" p o r t i o n of the DOS F o r m a t C o m m a n d i n s t r u c t s the c o m p u t e r to c o p y the O p e r a t i n g S y s t e m o n t o the d i s k b e i n g formated. T h i s w i l l a l l o w the u s e r to b o o t the O p e r a t i n g S y s t e m w i t h o u t t h e u s e of the DOS D i s k d u r i n g f u t u r e o p e r a t i o n s (see N o t e i). 5. F o l l o w t h e cues. the p r o m p t "A>" w i l l r e t u r n w h e n the b l a n k d i s k h a s b e e n formated. 6. L a b e l the n e w l y f o r m a t e d d i s k " M I C R O - P S W O R K I N G COPY"
2-30
Expert
Computer
Systems
MS DOS
COPYING
Gouge
A FILE
i. P l a c e the MS DOS D i s k in D i s k D r i v e A a n d y o u r W o r k i n g D i s k in D r i v e B. Note: the f o l l o w i n g p r o c e d u r e s w i l l c o p y a f i l e o n t h e d i s k in D r i v e A to the d i s k in D r i v e B. 2. C l o s e b o t h d i s k d r i v e doors• 3. A f t e r t h e p r o m p t "A>" t y p e " C O P Y A : < f i l e n a m e > B:" a n d p r e s s the r e t u r n key. Note: in p l a c e of " < f i l e n a m e > " in the a b o v e c o m m a n d t y p e the n a m e of t h e f i l e y o u w i s h to c o p y i n c l u d i n g t h e e x t e n s i o n . F o r e x a m p l e , if y o u w a n t to c o p y the file " E D L I N . C O M " t y p e " C O P Y A : E D L I N . C O M B:". 4. T h e c o m p u t e r w i l l cue y o u w h e n the f i l e has b e e n c o p i e d .
COPYING
A DISK
i. P l a c e the o r i g i n a l M I C R O - P S D i s k in D i s k D r i v e A. 2. P l a c e y o u r W o r k i n g D i s k in D i s k D r i v e B. 3. C l o s e the d o o r s o n b o t h d i s k drives. 4. A f t e r the p r o m p t "A>" t y p e " C O P Y A : * . * B:" a n d p r e s s t h e r e t u r n key. Note: t h i s c o m m a n d w i l l c o p y all the f i l e s o n t h e d i s k in D r i v e A o n t o t h e d i s k in D r i v e B. 5. F o l l o w t h e cues. 6. R e t u r n t h e o r i g i n a l M I C R O - P S d i s k to its cover. • y o u n o w h a v e a w o r k i n g c o p y of the M I C R O - P S d i s k w h i c h s h o u l d be u s e d on all s u b s e q u e n t i n s t r u c t i o n s .
EXECUTING
A MICRO-PS
KNOWLEDGE
BASE
i. P l a c e M I C R O - P S W o r k i n g D i s k in D r i v e A. 2. A f t e r t h e p r o m p t "A>" t y p e " M I C R O - P S < f i l e n a m e > " a n d p r e s s the r e t u r n key. Note: in p l a c e of " < f i l e n a m e > " in the a b o v e c o m m a n d t y p e the n a m e of t h e M I C R O - P S K n o w l e d g e B a s e y o u w i s h to e x e c u t e . For e x a m p l e , if y o u w a n t to e x e c u t e the K n o w l e d g e B a s e n a m e d " D E M O I " t y p e " M I C R O - P S D E M O I " and p r e s s the r e t u r n key. 3. To s t o p the e x e c u t i o n of a M I C R O - P S K n o w l e d g e B a s e t y p e "stop" a f t e r the M I C R O - P S p r o m p t "= ?".
2-31
Expert
Computer
Systems
MS DOS Gouge
CONSTRUCT/EDIT
A KNOWLEDGE
BASE U S I N G
EDLIN 2
i. P l a c e y o u r M I C R O - P S W o r k i n g D i s k into D i s k D r i v e A. Ensure the d i s k d r i v e door are closed. Note: this p r o c e d u r e s o n l y w o r k s if the file " E D L I N . C O M " and the file c o n t a i n i n g y o u r K n o w l e d g e Base are on y o u r w o r k i n g disk. 2. A f t e r the p r o m p t "A>" type "EDLIN " and p r e s s the r e t u r n key. Note: in p l a c e of "" in the above c o m m a n d type the name of the K n o w l e d g e Base y o u w i s h to c r e a t e / e d i t . For example, if y o u w i s h to c r e a t e / e d i t a K n o w l e d g e B a s e n a m e d "First" type "EDLIN FIRST" and press the r e t u r n key. 3. U s e the I n s e r t Lines C o m m a n d (see E D L I N C o m m a n d h a n d o u t ) to b e g i n e n t e r i n g y o u r first K n o w l e d g e Base. That is, t y p e "I" a f t e r the E D L I N p r o m p t ("*") and press the r e t u r n key. The c o m p u t e r will a u t o m a t i c a l l y n u m b e r the lines of y o u r K n o w l e d g e Base. 4. For s u b s e q u e n t editing, any of the E D L I N c o m m a n d s (see E D L I N C o m m a n d h a n d o u t ) m a y be e x e c u t e d by t y p i n g it after the E D L I N p r o m p t ("*"). For example, to list an e x i s t i n g file type "L" after the p r o m p t "*" and press the r e t u r n key. Note: the End Edit C o m m a n d ("E") stores the file b e f o r e r e t u r n i n g to the O p e r a t i n g System. The Quit Edit C o m m a n d ("Q") r e t u r n s to the O p e r a t i n g S y s t e m w i t h o u t s t o r i n g the file W H I C H COULD R E S U L T IN LOST WORK. Be careful!
TO
PARSE
A KNOWLEDGE
BASE
i. P l a c e y o u r M I C R O - P S W o r k i n g D i s k (with the n e w K n o w l e d g e Base) in D i s k D r i v e A and close the door. 2. F o l l o w the i n s t r u c t i o n s for E x e c u t i n g A K n o w l e d g e B a s e listed above. For example, to parse the K n o w l e d g e Base First type " M I C R O - P S FIRST" and press the r e t u r n key. 3. The M I C R O - P S P a r s e r will d i s p l a y error m e s s a g e s as it a t t e m p t s to e x e c u t e the n e w K n o w l e d g e Base. Note: an e x a m p l e of p a r s i n g a n e w K n o w l e d g e B a s e c a n be found in the N a g y text (Figure 5-21 p65). 4. F o l l o w the cues. Note: it will be h e l p f u l to have a p r i n t e d c o p y of y o u r K n o w l e d g e B a s e to r e f e r to as it is b e i n g parsed.
2-32
Expert
Computer
Systems
PRINTING
MS
A KNOWLEDGE
DOS
Gouge
BASE
i. E n s u r e the p r i n t e r is t u r n e d on ( O N / O F F s w i t c h l o c a t e d o n r i g h t h a n d s i d e of p r i n t e r ) , t h a t it is c o n n e c t e d to t h e c o m p u t e r y o u are using, and t h a t it is n o t out of paper. 2. P l a c e y o u r M I C R O - P S W o r k i n g D i s k in D i s k D r i v e A a n d c l o s e the door. 3. W h i l e h o l d i n g the C o n t r o l K e y ( " C t r l " ) p r e s s the l e t t e r "P" Note: p r e s s i n g the " C t r l - P " k e y s s i m u l t a n i o u s l y a c t s as a t o g g l e s w i t c h to t u r n the p r i n t e r ' s e c h o f u n c t i o n o n a n d off. 4. A f t e r the p r o m p t "A>" t y p e "TYPE < f i l e n a m e > " , w h e r e " < f i l e n a m e > " is e x p l a i n e d above. Note: the D O S c o m m a n d "TYPE" c a n be u s e d to d i s p l a y a n y file. the p r i n t e r w i l l e c h o w h a t e v e r is d i s p l a y e d o n t h e m o n i t o r . 5. P r e s s " C t r l - P " to e x i t the e c h o mode. Note: t h e " P r t S c " k e y c a n a l w a y s be u s e d to o b t a i n a h a r d c o p y of t h e c u r r e n t d i s p l a y o n the m o n i t o r ( " P r t S c " w o r k s in c o n j u n c t i o n w i t h the "Shift" key).
2-33
Expert C o m p u t e r S y s t e m s
MS DOS Gouge
13.140-7/IG S P R I N G 86
EXPERT
SUBJECT:
COMPUTER SYSTEMS INSTRUCTOR
FOR GOVERNMENT LESSON GUIDE
EXECUTIVES
S E S S I O N VII - B U I L D I N G A SMALL E X P E R T SYSTEM,
GOALS
PART
II
& OBJECTIVES
i. Purpose. To a d v a n c e the s t u d e n t s k n o w l e d g e of the M I C R 0 - P S e x p e r t s y s t e m Tool and to p r o v i d e the s t u d e n t an o p p o r t u n i t y to start w o r k i n g on h i s / h e r first e x p e r t s y s t e m w h i l e the i n s t r u c t o r is i m m e d i a t e l y a v a i l a b l e for c o n s u l t a t i o n . 2.
Objectives
A. To a d v a n c e the s t u d e n t s k n o w l e d g e of the M I R C O - P S s y s t e m Tool.
expert
B. To p r o v i d e the student an o p p o r t u n i t y to b e g i n w o r k i n g on h i s / h e r first expert system. C. To c o n t i n u e to explore the d i f f i c u l t i e s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h the d e v e l o p m e n t of an expert s y s t e m t h r o u g h p r a c t i c a l a p p l i c a t i o n .
COORDINATION
i.
Student Handouts.
2.
Classroom Setup Requirements A.
None
Viewgraph
B. T w e l v e 16-bit m i c r o p r o c e s s o r s , p r i n t e r s (for the i n s t r u c t o r ) in s p e c i f i e d classroom. 3.
IRC S u p p o r t R e q u i r e m e n t s .
C o m p u t e r setup.
2-:94
and one p r o j e c t o r
Expert
Computer
Systems
Instructor
L E S S O N
i.
Lesson
Guide
O U T L I N E
Lesson A.
Review
DEMOI
B.
Attachments
(VG VI-13) and
The
Attachment
Section
.
General - Attachments = groupings of text which can be " a t t a c h e d " to t h e v a r i o u s p a r t s o f M I C R 0 - P S p r o g r a m to: • provide information to u s e r • m a k e y o u r ES m o r e u s a b l e a n d v a l u a b l e to user - f i r s t of t h e f o u r s e c t i o n s i n a M I C R O - P S knowledge base (Attachments, Attributes, Rules, Action), only section not required in KB f o r m a t s a m e as o t h e r s e c t i o n s (will cover in a minute) - two types of attachments = Nondeclared/Declared
.
Nondeclared Attachments - "question" Attachment • a v a i l a b l e e v e n if k n o w l e d g e base does not have an A t t a c h m e n t S e c t i o n . a l l o w s t e x t t o be a t t a c h e d t o a n a t t r i b u t e or value name in the Attribute Section = text displayed to user rather than name • syntax/example (VG VII-l) -placed in Attribute Section -enclosed in square brackets - w o r d " q u e s t i o n " in l o w e r c a s e followed by colon -each line of text, including question mark, e n c l o s e d in d o u b l e q u o t a t i o n m a r k s - t e x t u p t o 79 c h a r a c t e r s including brackets -note use of commas and periods for value attachements (if m o r e t h e n 1 a t t a c h m e n t , "question" Attachment first without punctuation between consecutive attachments)
.
Declared Attachments - c a n " a t t a c h " t e x t to n a m e s , v a l u e s , a n d r u l e s d e c l a r e ( n a m e s of) a t t a c h m e n t s (except "question" Attachments) in Attachment Section, text of attachment in o t h e r s e c t i o n ( s )
2-35
Expert
Computer
Systems
Some .
Lesson
Guide
syntax/example (VG VII-2) • n a m e = 1 w o r d o f I0 l e t t e r s / n u m b e r s with no punctuation • maximums = i0 a t t a c h m e n t s , 3 per attribute/ value/rule, 4 l i n e s per, t o t a l t e x t i 0 0 l i n e s • i n r u l e s = f o l l o w r u l e n a m e b e f o r e "if" names must match declared name in Attachment Section • note can provide user format for calling attachment and attachment n a m e as p a r t o f "question" attachment
-
C.
Instructor
User
Friendly
Features
Many - for example: - ability to input any user command (ie, n e x t , continue, s t o p , d i s p l a y , j u s t i f y ) at a n y p r o m p t parser error messages m a n y f e a t u r e s c a n b e u s e d b y K B A to i n c r e a s e -
-
.
Error Detection - informs user when inappropriate is c h o s e n example (VG V I I - 3 )
value
to
question
-
D.
More .
On
Commands/Knowledge
Base
Structure
"message" Command Revisited - as g r e e t i n g s or instruction message - could be used to help user to decide usefulness of system or to issue instructions to user example (VG V I I - 4 ) place in Action Section word "message" in lowercase • each line enclosed in double quotation marks • l i m i t of 4 l i n e s • end with period, comma, or "endif" -
.
"askfor" Command - used to display unattached attribute mentioned i n a n y r u l e ) to u s e r - u s e d in A c t i o n S e c t i o n syntax/example (VG VII-5) • word "askfor" in lowercase attribute name matches • end with period, comma, or "endif"
(not
-
.
"justify" and "display" Commands - enables user to justify and/or display conclusions/advice, system will reply with
2-36
Expert
Computer
Systems
Lesson
Guide
message that identifies the rule name and its f i n a l v a l u e ( d i s p l a y c o m m a n d c a n t h e n b e u s e to display the appropriate rule) a n d / o r K B A c a n u s e to i n c r e a s e u s e r c o n f i d e n c e in system syntax/example (VG VII-6) • w o r d " j u s t i f y " a n d " d i s p l a y " in l o w e r c a s e • variable/rule name must be declared, match, and be d e t e r m i n e d b y a r u l e in t h e R u l e s S e c t i o n
-
-
4.
Instructor
Commands a .
for
Screen
Control
(VG VII-7)
Mark Command - u s e d in s y s t e m w h i c h w i l l b e u s e d r e p e a t e d l y - c o m m a n d s in A c t i o n S e c t i o n b e f o r e " m a r k " executed only once syntax = lowercase followed by comma, percent sign, period, or "endif" -
b.
c. .
Wait and Pause Commands - used to control amount screen - syntax = ibid Example
=
(see
of
information
on
viewgraph)
"if-then-endif" and "if-then-else-endif" Structures - used in Action Section like rule in Rule Section but consequent is a c o m m a n d o r s e r i e s o f c o m m a n d s syntax/example (VG V I I - 8 ) • a t t r i b u t e names~values m u s t b e d e c l a r e d a n d match • consequent can have series of commands separated by commas • last command followed by "endif" • preferred method = complicated "if-then-elseendif" can be accomplished w i t h s e r i e s of "ifthen-endif" statements (VG V I I - 9 ) -
E. F. SYSTEM,
G.
Demonstrate
DEMO2
(VG V I I - 1 0 )
Next Week - SESSION VIII - BUILDING A SMALL EXPERT P A R T III - lab session to afford student opportunity to write first expert system (review Computer Lab hours/ procedures) Lab
Session
= remainder
of
study
2-37
period
for
individual
student
Expert Computer Systems
Instructor Lesson Guide
2. Demonstrations. DEM02 (Tom Nagy, Dick Gault, and Monica Nagy, Building Your First Expert System, Ashton-Tate Publishing Group 1985, pp72-95) 3.
Practical Exercises.
None
2-38
Expert Computer
Systems
I n s t r u c t o r L e s s o n Guide
13.140-8/IG S P R I N G 86
EXPERT
SUBJECT:
COMPUTER SYSTEMS INSTRUCTOR
S E S S I O N VIII
FOR GOVERNMENT LESSON GUIDE
EXECUTIVES
- B U I L D I N G A SMALL E X P E R T SYSTEM, GOALS
PART
III
& OBJECTIVES
i. Purpose. To p r o v i d e the student an o p p o r t u n i t y to start w o r k i n g on h i s / h e r first e x p e r t s y s t e m w h i l e the i n s t r u c t o r is i m m e d i a t e l y a v a i l a b l e for c o n s u l t a t i o n . 2.
Objectives
A. his/her
To p r o v i d e the student an o p p o r t u n i t y to b e g i n w o r k i n g first e x p e r t system.
B. To c o n t i n u e to e x p l o r e the d i f f i c u l t i e s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h the d e v e l o p m e n t of an e x p e r t s y s t e m t h r o u g h p r a c t i c a l application.
COORDINATION
i.
Student Handouts.
2.
Classroom Setup Requirements A.
None
Viewgraph
B. T w e l v e 16-bit m i c r o p r o c e s s o r s , p r i n t e r s (for the i n s t r u c t o r ) in s p e c i f i e d classroom. 3.
IRC S u p p o r t R e q u i r e m e n t s .
C o m p u t e r setup.
2-39
and one p r o j e c t o r
Expert
Computer
Systems
Instructor
LESSON
i.
3.
Guide
OUTLINE
Lesson A.
Computer
B.
Next
Week
Lab
Session
- SESSION
IX
- GUEST
TITAN
•
Lesson
Demonstrations. Practical
None
Exercises.
None
2-40
SPEAKER/DEMONSTRATION
FROM
Expert
Computer
Systems
Instructor
Lesson
Guide
13.140-I0/IG S P R I N G 86
EXPERT
SUBJECT:
COMPUTER SYSTEMS INSTRUCTOR
SESSION
FOR GOVERNMENT LESSON GUIDE
EXECUTIVES
X - THE G A M E AND THE P L A Y E R S
GOALS
& OBJECTIVES
i. Purpose. To f a m i l i a r i z e the s t u d e n t w i t h the p o t e n t i a l social, economic, and m i l i t a r y i m p l i c a t i o n s as well as the p o s s i b l e u t i l i t y of the field of a r t i f i c i a l i n t e l l i g e n c e . 2.
Objectives.
A. To i n t r o d u c e the game, the stakes and the p l a y e r s w h a t has b e e n c a l l e d the "war" for AI supremacy.
in
B. To g i v e s e n i o r e x e c u t i v e s an a p p r e c i a t i o n for f u t u r e p o t e n t i a l a p p l i c a t i o n of a r t i f i c i a l i n t e l l i g e n c e t e c h n o l o g y . C. To e x p l o r e c u r r e n t and future a p p l i c a t i o n s for this t e c h n o l o g y w i t h e m p h a s i s on future m i l i t a r y a p p l i c a t i o n s .
COORDINATION
i.
Student Handouts.
2.
Classroom
3.
IRC Support
None
Setup Requirements. Requirements.
Viewgraph
None
LESSON
OUTLINE
2-41
new
Expert
i.
Computer
Systems
Instructor
Lesson
Guide
Lesson A.
The Game i.
The
Fifth Generation
Challenge
- i s s u e d in a u t u m n 1981 b y J a p a n e s e M i n i s r y of I n t e r n a l T r a d e a n d I n d u s t r y (MITI) b y l a u n c h i n g I n s t i t u t e for N e w G e n e r a t i o n C o m p u t e r T e c h n o l o g y (ICOT) - i n i t i a l $2 m i l l i o n 1982 b u d g e t , $ 4 5 0 m i l l i o n i0 year program - goal = Knowledge Information Processing System (KIPS) - s p r i n g 1982 = 40 c o m p u t e r "whiz k i d s " ( a v e r a g e age 30) s t a r t e d w o r k M a r c h 1983 = E d w a r d A. F e i g e n b a u m a n d P a m e l a M c C o r d i c k p u b l i s h e d "The F i f t h G e n e r a t i o n , Artificial Intelligence and Japan's Computer C h a l l e n g e to the W o r l d " p u b l i c i z i n g c h a l l e n g e - J a p a n e s e g o v e r n m e n t t o t a l a l l o c a t i o n of c a p i t a l for c o m p u t e r d e v e l o p m e n t = 8 4 . 5 7 b i l l i o n -
2.
At
stake
- w a r in AI s u p r e m a c y w i l l be w o n b e t w e e n n o w and e n d of 2 0 t h c e n t u r y d o m e s t i c sales, jobs, p r e s t i g e i m p l i c a t i o n to n a t i o n a l d e f e n s e . v a l u e of the m a r k e t (VG X-l) - could revolutionalize both warfare and civilian e c o n o m y in n e x t c e n t u r y -
-
-
3.
The R e s p o n s e - N a t i o n a l C o r p o r a t e R e s e a r c h A c t of 1 9 8 4 = t i m e l y r e l a x a t i o n of r e a l and p e r c e i v e d b a r r i e r s to corporative research - s w e e t e n e r = 25 p e r c e n t t a x c r e d i t g i v i n g c o m p a n i e s i n c e n t i v e to b l o s t e r h i g h t e c h R & D - t o t a l U.S. h i g h t e c h R&D b u d g e t 1983 $ 6 b i l l i o n ( m o s t l y c o m p a n i e s , IBM, DEC, etc) 1984 97 b i l l i o n (IAW N a t i o n a l S c i e n c e F o u n d a t i o n ) 1985 107 b i l l i o n (IAW B a t t e l l e M e m o r i a l I n s t i t u t e ) - a p p l i c a b i l i t y of AI to m i l i t a r y s i g n i f i c a n t , DOD plays single most influential role setting advanced computer goals and establishing R&D projects 1984 50% of 8 1 0 4 m i l l i o n in f e d e r a l f u n d i n g f o r
2-42
Expert
Computer
Systems
Instructor
Lesson
Guide
b a s i c c o m p u t e r r e s e a r c h f r o m DOD 60% of $ 1 4 6 m i l l i o n for a p p l i e d c o m p u t e r research from DOD B .
The Players .
(VG X-2)
ICOT - Institute Technology
for N e w G e n e r a t i o n
Computer
- already discussed Japanese Fifth Generation Project - eight companies, heavily supported by government - H i t a c h i , N i p p o n E l e c t r i c , M i t s u b i s h i , Sharp, T o s h i b a , F u j i t s u , Oki Japanese goal both social and economic - p r o m i s e d a p p r o x i m a t e l y $42 m i l l i o n / y e a r , a c t u a l : . 1984 822 m i l l i o n • 1985 $20 m i l l i o n • 1 9 8 6 e s t i m a t e S21 m i l l i o n -
.
MCC - Microelectronic Corporation
and C o m p u t e r
Technology
- c r e a t e d to m a i n t a i n U.S. t e c h n o l o g y p r e e m i n e n c e a n d i n t e r n a t i o n a l c o m p e t i t i v e n e s s in m i c r o electronics and computers - c o n s o r t i u m of a p p r o x i m a t e l y 21 U.S. c o m p a n i e s including Boeing, Eastman Kodak, Martin Marietta, SM, NCR, C o n t r o l Data, D i g i t a l E q u i p m e n t f o u n d e d Jan 198S, a p p r o x i m a t e l y $ 5 0 e m p l o y e e s C E O = A D M B o b b y R. Inman, U S N (ret) g o v e r n e d by B o a r d of D i r e c t o r s c o m p o s e d of r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s of e a c h s h a r e h o l d e r c o m p a n y - s t o c k h o l d e r c o m p a n i e s h a v e e x c l u s i v e r i g h t s to p r o p r i e t a r y i n f o r m a t i o n for S y e a r s t h e n M C C l i c e n s e r i g h t s to o t h e r u s e r s - c o r p o r a t e o b j e c t i v e s (VG X-S) - programs = four long-range advanced technology p r o g r a m s are i n t e n d e d to m a k e s i g n i f i c a n t technology advances within 5-10 years (VG X-4) . P A C K A G I N G = a d v a n c e the s t a t e - o f - t h e - a r t in semiconductor packaging and interconnect technology • SOFTWARE TECHNOLOGY = develop new techniques, p r o c e d u r e s , and t o o l s t h a t c a n be u s e d to i m p r o v e t h e p r o d u c t i v i t y of t h e s o f t w a r e d e v e l o p m e n t p r o c e s s 1-2 o r d e r s of m a g n i t u d e . VLSI/COMPUTER-AIDED DESIGN = improve computera i d e d d e s i g n t e c h n o l o g y a n d d e v e l o p an i n t e g r a t e d set of t o o l s t h a t c a n h a v e -
-
-
2-43
Expert
Computer
Systems
Instructor
Lesson
Guide
p a r t i c u l a r a p p l i c a t i o n to c o m p l e x s y s t e m s a n d the very complex VLSI chips from which they w i l l be b u i l t • ADVANCED COMPUTER ARCHITECTURE = the most complex and ambitious program, 10-year effort w i l l f o c u s on: P A R E L L E L P R O C E S S I N G = d e v e l o p l a n g u a g e s and a r c h i t e c t u r e s to a l l o w c o m p u t e r s to p e r f o r m t a s k s s i m u l t a n e o u s l y i n s t e a d of s e q u e n t i a l l y DATABASE SYSTEM MANAGEMENT = improve database d e s i g n , s t o r a g e m e t h o d s , and c a p a c i t i e s to permit flexible storage and faster retrieval of b r o a d e r r a n g e of c o m p l e x i n f o r m a t i o n HUMAN FACTORS TECHNOLOGY = improve manm a c h i n e i n t e r f a c e u s i n g i m p r o v e d v o i c e or c h a r a c t e r r e c o g n i t i o n or n a t u r a l l a n g u a g e AI/KNOWLEDGE-BASED SYSTEMS = develop new ways to r e p r e s e n t h u m a n k n o w l e d g e and t h o u g h t c o n c e p t s as w e l l as n e w e n g i n e e r i n g m o d e l s a n d t o o l s to a p p l y h u m a n e x p e r t i s e to w i d e r a n g e of p r o b l e m s . all p r o g r a m s are i n t e r e l a t e d a n d f o c u s u p o n the last, m o s t i m p o r t a n t p r o g r a m : a r t i f i c i a l intelligence -
-
-
-
3.
DARPA
- Defense
Advanced
Research
Project
Agency
- f o u n d e d as A R P A in 1958 ( r e s u l t of S p u t n i k ) w i t h m i s s i o n to e n s u r e U.S. w o u l d n e v e r a g a i n be c a u g h t so f l a t - f o o t e d b y an a d v e r s a r y a p p r o x i m a t e l y 125 e m p o y e e s , no labs, r e l a t i v e small budget 1985 8700 million • 1986 estimate 8776 million v e n t u r e c a p i t a l i s t s of the D e f e n s e D e p a r t m e n t - s e t s p a c e a n d d i r e c t i o n for d e v e l o p m e n t of f u t u r e c o m p u t e r t e c h n o l o g y b y d i s t r i b u t i n g f u n d s to university, company and national laboratories - MIT computer professor (Dertouzous), "70-80 p e r c e n t of m a j o r d i s c o v e r i e s in c o m u t e r s c i e n c e c a n be t r a c e d to D A R P A " - s u c c e s s = p h a s e d - a r r a y radar, c o m p o s i t e materials, laser holograghy forward-swept-wing aircraft - Strategic Computer Initiative • i0 y e a r R&D p u s h in s p e c i f i c c o m p u t e r t e c h n o l o g i e s t h a t w o u l d e v e n t u a l l y f i n d u s e in w i d e s p e c t r u m of m i l i t a r y (and c i v i l i a n ) engineering A N D d e v e l o p m a s s i v e i n f r a s t r u c t u r e of -
-
2-44
Expert
Computer
Systems
Instructor
Lesson
Guide
distributed research centers, supporting agencies, databases, networks, project managers • A N D to b u i l d m a s s i v e l y p a r a l l e l V L S I - b a s e d c o m p u t e r e v e n t u a l l y w i t h G a A s in n e x t i0 y e a r s ( g a l l i u m a r s e n i d e = low power, h i g h speed, r a d i a t i o n hardness) A B O U T SCI IN A M I N U T E •
.
M
O
R
E
Others a.
U.S. -
Governments
and Agencies
federal government • establishing four national supercomputer centers • C o r n e l , P r i n c e t o n , U. of Ill, a n d U. of C a l i f in San D i e g o
- National
Security
Agency
.
- M i c r o e l e c t o n i c s C e n t e r of N o r t h C a r o l i n a (MCNC) • s t a t e e f f o r t of a p p r o x i m a t e l y $43 m i l l i o n • N e i g h b o r i n g i n d u s t r i e s c o n t r i b u t i n g to t o t a l b u d g e t t h r o u g h 1985 of $50 m i l l i o n t a r g e t = V L S I d e s i g n system, a d v a n c e d silicon wafer fabrication facility, fast p r o t o t y p i n g c a p a c i t y for b u i l d i n g experimental architecture b.
Individual Ventures
Companies,
Consortia
and
Joint
- I B M = $ 2 . 5 b i l l i o n in 1983 for R & D IBM, EXXON, A T & T a n d L o c k h e e d c o o p e r a t i n g to construct supercomputer S e m i c o n d u c t o r R e s e a r c h C o o p e r a t i v e (SRC) . f o u n d e d 1981 IBM, DEC, B u r r o u g h s , C o n t r o l Data, GE, Intel, W e s t i n g h o u s e E l e c t r i c , X e r o x , o t h e r s • 1 9 8 4 b u d g e t g r e a t e r t h e n $13 b i l l i o n for "pure r e s e a r c h " • o v e r 50 c o n t r a c t s w i t h 30 u n i v e r s i t i e s , I00 faculty, 125 g r a d u a t e s t u d e n t s w o r k i n g • research areas = microstructure science, s y s t e m c o m p o n e n t s , d e s i g n tools, n e w a p p r o a c h e s to m a n u f a c t u r i n g a n d e n g i n e e r i n g -
-
c.
Other
Governments
2-45
Expert
Computer
Systems
Instructor
Lesson
Guide
- E S P R I T - E u r o p e a n S t r a t e g i c P r o g r a m m e for Research and Development . f u l l y u n d e r w a y in 1984 . C o m m o n M a r k e t f u n d s for k n o w l e d g e engineering b i d d i n g a g r e e m e n t s for p r o g r a m s m u s t i n c l u d e m e m b e r s f r o m at l e a s t t w o E u r o p e a n countries - Alvey Computer Research Program British government + member companies • Science and Engineering Research Council, a n d D e p a r t m e n t s of I n d u s t r y a n d D e f e n s e • S500 million, 5 year program (British g o v e r n m e n t = S300M, m e m b e r c o m p a n i e s = $200M) t a r g e t = VLSI, s o f t w a r e e n g i n e e r i n g , i n t e l l i g e n t k n o w l e d g e - b a s e d s y s t e m s , and user-friendly interfaces Germany $40 m i l l i o n p e r y e a r 50/50 between government
-
and industry
- A g e n c y for I n f o r m a t i o n T e c h n o l o g y F r e n c h g o v e r n m e n t "pure r e s e a r c h " • a p p r o x i m a t e l y $15 m i l l i o n f i r s t y e a r software engineering, workstation, and c o m p u t e r - a i d e d d e s i g n for V L S I -
C.
Potential .
Types Aids
Soviets • l a t e 1983 = 3 r d 5 y e a r p l a n initially $i00 million . collaboration with USSR and E u r o p e a n p a r t n e r s in C o u n c i l Mutual Assistance . claim civilian activity and initiative p o i n t e d at f i f t h g e n e r a t i o n
Military of
for
computing
6 East for E c o n o m i c not
a military
computing
Applications
Intelligent
Weapons
and Battle
Management
- collaborative = closely assist human operators . example = fighter co-pilot, battle management . a d v a n t a g e s = t i r e l e s s , r e l i e v e h u m a n of m u n d a n e tasks, no b a d days, f a s t e r
2-46
Expert
Computer
Systems
Instructor
Lesson
Guide
- autonomous
. = function without human intervention • example = smart bomb/cruise missle . advantages = survivability (in h o s t i l e , high radiation environment) . disadvantage = danger of comletely autonomous system 2.
Potential
3.
Problems
4.
Case
Application to
Study
(VG
Overcome
(VG
= DARPA's
X-5) X-6)
Strategic
Computer
Initiative
- goal = set of specific military applications that exploit new generation computing technology (VG X - 7 ) - f u n d i n g b e t w e e n $ 6 0 0 m i l l i o n to $i b i l l i o n (VG X - S ) - three projects • AUTONOMOUS LAND VEHICLE (VG X-9) - autonomous vehicle to support deep-penetration reconnaissance, r e a r area re-supply, ammunition handling, and weapons delivery PILOT'S ASSOCIATE SYSTEM (VG X-IO) - combat pilots personal assistant NAVAL BATTLE MANAGEMENT SYSTEM (VG X-II) - battle management system to aid in management of l a r g e e n t e r p r i s e D. Next F u t u r e o f AI
Week
- Guest
2.
Demonstrations.
3.
Practical
= SESSION
Speaker
XI
from
- The
DARPA
None
Exercises.
None
2-47
Military's
Role
in
the
Expert
Computer
Systems
Instructor
Lesson
Guide
13.140-12/IG S P R I N G 86
EXPERT
COMPUTER
SYSTEMS
FOR
INSTRUCTOR
SUBJECT:
SESSION
XII
i. Purpose. and to r e v i e w 2.
LESSON
- COURSE
GOALS
GOVERNMENT
EXECUTIVES
GUIDE
SUMMARY
& OBJECTIVES
To e x p l o r e the future of AI and e x p e r t and c r i t i q u e this course.
systems,
Objectives
A. To m a k e sense of the claims, future AI a p p l i c a t i o n s . B.
To e x p l o r e
future
applications
C. To i m p a r t an u n d e r s t a n d i n g f u t u r e c a p a b i l i t i e s and l i m i t a t i o n s D.
To r e v i e w
promises,
and c r i t i q u e
Student Handouts.
2.
Classroom
3.
IRC S u p p o r t
for this n e w technology.
the course.
None
Setup Requirements. Requirements.
None
None
LESSON
OUTLINE
2-48
of
of and a p p r e c i a t i o n for of e x p e r t c o m p u t e r systems.
COORDINATION
i.
and r e a l i t i e s
Expert
i.
Computer
Systems
Instructor
Lesson
Guide
Lesson A.
Advantages
and Disadvantages
of AI
(Software
A&E
1985)
- C o m p a r i s o n of N a t u r a l and A r t i f i c i a l I n t e l l i g e n c e (VG X I I - l ) H u m a n vs C o m p u t e r P r o b l e m S o l v i n g (VG X I I - 2 ) -
B.
Future
of K n o w l e d g e
Systems
(Paul
Harmon,
David
King
1985) - The C o m p u t e r E V O L U T I O N (vice r e v o l u t i o n ) (VG X I I - S ) A p p l i c a t i o n s in the 1 9 8 0 ' s (VG X I I - 4 ) - M a r k e t I m p a c t of D i f f e r e n t T y p e s of S y s t e m s (VG X I I - 5 ) Large, h y b r i d and n a r r o w s y s t e m s • Professional workstations Small-scale systems - S m a r t g e n e r i c s o f t w a r e (Tools, o f f - t h e - s e l f ) - S m a r t h a r d w a r e ( i n t e g r a t e d in lab t e s t i n g , diagnosis) -
C.
Preparing
System
Revolution
keep - push
a b r e a s t of s t a t e - o f - t h e - a r t technology when chance arises
Course
Highlights
-
D.
for the K n o w l e d g e
i.
Phase
(VG X I I - 6 )
1 = Introduction
and O v e r v i e w
- hardware/software, bits/bytes - algorithm/Von Neumann architecture s t a t e - o f - t h e - a r t (VHSIC, CD, n a t u r a l l a n g u a g e interface, expert systems) - AI f a m i l y t r e e m e e t "Eliza" - data-based systems (DBMS/MIS/DSS) and knowledgebased systems (natural language, expert systems) l a n g u a g e s , Tools, s y s t e m s - e x i s t i n g s y s t e m s = d e m o n s t a t i o n s of E x p e r t E a s e and SYSEX - N a v y Lab t o u r -
-
-
2.
Phase
2 = Developing
- problem suitability six s t e p s -
2-49
an E x p e r t and
System
feasibility,
goals
Expert
Computer
Systems
Instructor
case study = XCON - built small expert system - TITAN demonstration
Lesson
Guide
-
3.
Phase
3
= The
Worldwide
using
MICRO-PS
Challenge
t h e c h a l l e n g e , stakes, r e s p o n s e - p l a y e r s = ICOT, MCC, DARPA, o t h e r s - military applications c a s e s t u d y = D A R P A ' s SCI guest lecturer = DARPA -
-
-
4.
Phase
4 = Course
mo
Review
of
F.
Course
Critique
2.
Demonstrations.
3.
Practical
Course
Summary
Objectives
None
Exercises.
None
i. T h i s a n d s u b s e q u e n t p r o c e d u r e s System has already been booted. 2. A M I C R O - P S Wordprocessing
(VG X I I - 7 )
will
Knowledge Base may also Program that will create
2-50
assume
that
the
be c o n s t r u c t e d an A S C I I file.
Operating
using
any
13.140-3/A SPRING 86
EXPERT
COMPUTER
SYSTEMS LIST
FOR
II
EXECUTIVES
OF VIEWGRAPHS
TITLE
SESSION NUMBER/DODCI NUMBER I
GOVERNMENT
1/1026 2/1027 3/1028 4/1029 5/1030 6/1031 7/1032
(Source)
Expert Computer Systems for Government Course Objectives Why Study Computer Science? Block Diagram of a Computer Evolution of the Computer Definition of Artificial Intelligence The AI Family Tree 8/1033 History of AI (Harmon Table i.i p4) 9/1034 So What's all the Hoopla about AI? 10a-c/ Current Applications of AI 1035, 1090-1091 11/1036 Potential Applications of AI 12/1037 Technical Hurdles Yet to Overcome 1/1038 2/1039 3/1040 4a-c/ 1041-1043 5/1045 6/1046 7/1047 8/1048
9/1049 10/1050 11/1051 12/1052 13/1053 14/1054 15/1055 16/1056 17/1057
Executive
Computer Aided Decision Making . . By Any Other Name . . Goals of Expert Systems Common Properties, Characteristics and Features of Expert Systems Overview of Human Information Processing System (Harmon Fig 3.1 p23) Divergent and Convergent Reasoning Definition of Expertise Architecture of Knowledge-based Expert Systems (Harmon Fig 4.1 p34) Knowledge Base Knowledge Strategies for Representing Knowledge Semantic Network (Harmon Fig 4.2 p36) Object-Attribute-Value Triplet (Harmon Figs 4.4, 4.6, and 4.7 p39-40) Rules (Harmon p42 bottom) Frames (Harmon Fig 4.12 p44) Semantic Nets, O-A-V Triplets and Frames (Harmon Fig 4.15 p47) Inference Engines Search Strategies (Harmon Fig 5.7 p57) Problem Domain of Existing Knowledge Engineering Techniques (Harmon Fig 5.8 p59)
3-1
Expert Computer
III
1/1058 2/1059 3/1060 4/1061 5/i062
V
VI
1/1063 2a-b/ 1064-1065 3/1066 4/1067 5/1068 6/1089
1/1092 2/1093 3/1094 4/i095 5/i096 6/1097 7/1098 8/1099 9/ii00 i0/ii01 11/1102 12/1103 13/1104 14/1105
Systems
List of Viewgraphs
Levels of Software (Harmon Fig 7.1 and 7.2 p80-81) Tools for Building Expert Systems Advantages of Expert Tools Typical Consultation Paradigms (Harmon Fig 8.3 p95) Problem Solving Stategies (Harmon Fig 8.1 p93)
Suitability of Expert System Techniques Expert Systems Can . . Application Constraints Critical Aspects of a Problem Building a Small Expert System Overview of the Development of XCON (Harmon Fig i0.i p156)
An Expert System Hallmarks of an Expert System How Attachments Work (Nagy Fig 5-1 p39) Most Suitable Applications Design Steps Attribute Hierarchy for DEMOI (Nagy Fig 5-5 p48) Action Flow Chart for DEMOI (Nagy Fig 5-6 p49) Nonnumeric Attribute Syntax & Example (Nagy Fig 3-1 p189, Example 3-2 plg0) Attribute Section of DEMOI (Nagy Fig 5-7 p51) Illegal Keywords and Characters for MICRO-PS (Nagy Figs 5-8, 5-9 p52) Rational Indicators and Connectors Rule Syntax & Example DEMOI's Knowledge Base (Nagy Fig 5-22 p68-69) Command Syntax & Examples
3-2
Expert Computer Systems
Vll
1/1106
2a-b/ 1107-1108 3/1109 4/1110
5/1111 6a-b/ 1112-1113 7a-b/ 1114-1115 8/1116 9/1117 lOa-d/ 1118-1121 X
XlI
1/1069 2/1070 3/1071 4/1072 5/1073 6/1074 7/1075 8/1076 9a-d/ 1077-1080 10/1081 lla-b/ 1082-1083 1/1084 2/1085 3/1086 4/1087
5/1088 6/1188 7
List of Viewgraphs
Question Attachment Syntax & Example (Nagy Figs 6-8, 6-9 p79+) Declared Attachments Syntax & Examples (Nagy Example 2-6 p185-187+) Example of Error Detection (Nagy Fig 6-1 p73) Message Command Syntax & Example (Nagy Figs 6-3, 6-4 p75+) Askfor Command Syntax & Example (Nagy Example 5-1 p228-229+) Justify Command Syntax & Example (Nagy Figs 6-13, 6-14, 6-15 p83-87-) Mark, Wait, and Pause Commands Syntax & Example (Nagy Example 5-11 p253-254+) If-then-else-endif Structure Syntax & Example (Nagy Example 5-4 p233-234+) If-then-endif Structure (Nagy Example 5-5 p234-235) DEM02 Knowledge Base (Nagy Fig 6-19 p91-95)
Value of AI Market The Players MCC's Corporate Objectives MCC's Programs Military Applications Problems to Overcome DARPA's SCI Program Structure and Goals DARPA's SCI Cost Summary DARPA's Autonomous Land Vehicle DARPA's Pilot's Associate System DARPA's Naval Battle Management System
Comparison of Natural and Artificial Intelligence (Building Expert Systems p6-6) Human vs Computer Problem Solving (Building Expert Systems p6-7) The Computer EVOLUTION Applications in the 1980's (Harmon Fig 14.1 p228) Market Impact of Various Types of Systems (Harmon Fig 14.2, 3, and 4 p229, 232) Course Highlights Course Objectives (see VG I-2)
3-3
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE and EXPERT SYSTEMS
..__._ !
/
m
,
f
IP/J '/ , '/,
DODCl 1026-85
COURSE OBJECTIVES • TO INTRODUCE THE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING FIELD OF PRACTICAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE EMPHASIZING THE MOST SUCCESSFUL AREA OF PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS--KNOWLEDGE BASED EXPERT COMPUTER SYSTEMS. • TO DEFINE,CLARIFY AND MAKE SENSE OF THE CLAIMS,PROMISES AND REALITIES
OF PRACTICAL AI APPLICATIONS. • TO ACQUIRE AN UNDERSTANDING OF AND APPRECIATION FOR THE APPLICATION, CAPABILITIES AND LIMITATIONS OF EXPERT COMPUTER SYSTEMS. • TO ACQUAINT SENIOR EXECUTIVES WITH THE STATE--OF--THE--ART IN COMPUTER TECHNOLOGY WHILE GIVING HIM/HER AN APPRECIATION FOR FUTURE POTENTIAL APPLICATIONS. • TO EXPLORE THE DIFFICULTIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EXPERT SYSTEM. • TO EXPLORE CURRENT AND FUTURE APPLICATIONS FOR THIS NEW TECHNOLOGY.
DODCJ fO~.7
WHY MANAGERS SHOULD STUDY COMPUTERS III
I
II I
I
IIIII
I
III
II
II
• TECHNOLOGY ILLITERACY vs EFFICIENT AND EFFECTIVE USE • INFORMATION AGE-COMPUTER CAN BE ANYTHING FROM TOOL TO TERRORIST DEVICE •
BUREAUCRATIC ITIOM-"INFORMATION IS POWER"
• SUN TZU (IN THE ART OF WAR)-KNOWLEDGE IS POWER AND PERMITS THE WISE SOVEREIGN AND BENEVOLENT GENERAL TO ATTACK WITHOUT RISK.CONQUER WITHOUT BLOODSHEDAND ACCOMPLISH DEEDS SURPASSING ALL OTHERS" • DUELING COMPUTERS-MY PC-GENERATED ANALYSIS CAN WHIP YOUR PC-GENERATED ANALYSIS • ABILITY TO COLLECT INFORMATION HAS OUTSTRIPPED OUR A B I L I T Y TO PROCESS IT
• KEEP FROM BECOMING A "HAS BEEN" • ANSWER YOUR 10 YEAR OLDS QUESTION ABOUT "GIGAFLIPS" DOL)CI I028-85
BLOCK DIAGRAM OF A COMPUTERS CONTROL UNIT
CENTRAL PROCESSING UNIT
(cPu)
MEMORY
I
I
INTERFACE
UNIT(S)
• HARDWARE INTERFACE - CRT/KEYBOARD
• SOFTWARE INTERFACE -HIGHER LEVEL LANGUAGES
INPUT
OUTPUT
USER
DODCl 1029-85
FIVE GENERATIONS OF COMPUTER TECHNOLOGY GENERATION TIME PERIOD
FIRST
SECOND
THIRD
1948-1956
1957-1963
1970's
TECHNOLOGY
COMPUTERS
VACUMN TUBE
ENIAC IBM 659 UNIVAC
2 KBYTE MEMORY
32 KBYTE MEMORY
NCR 501 IBM 7094 CDC 6600
INTEGRATED CIRCUIT
DEC PDP-11
2 MBYTE MEMORY
CRAY 1
TRANSISTORS
5 MIPS ~
VLSI 2 CIRCUIT FOURTH
1980s
8 MBYTE MEMORY
30 MIPS'
FIFTH
1990's(?)
CYBER 205 IBM 3 6 0 / 3 / 0 GRAY XMP IBM 308 AMDAHL 580
1 GIGA(BILLION) IPS or 1 TETRA(TRILLION)IPS • VHSIC(VERY HIGH SPEED INTEGRATED CIRCUITS) • PARALLEL ARCHITECTURE • CONCURRENT LANGUAGES, FUNCTIONAL PROGRAMMING AND SYMBOLIC PROCESSING'
MIPS MILLIONIOR MEGA) INSTRUCTIONS PER SECONDS VLSI-VERY LARGE SCALE INTEGRATION .%PEAK.SEE.PLAN AHEAD
D O D C I I030 85
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE."A SUBFIELD OF COMPUTER SCIENCE CONCERNED WITH THE CONCEPTS AND METHODS OF SYMBOLIC INFERENCE BY A COMPUTER AND THE SYMBOLIC REPRESENTATION OF THE KNOWLEDGE TO BE USED IN MAKING INFERENCES. A FIELD AIMED AT, PURSUING THE POSSIBILITY THAT A COMPUTER CAN BE MADE TO BEHAVE IN WAYS THAT HUMANS RECOGNIZE AS INTELLIGENT BEHAVIOR IN EACH OTHER" (FEIGENBAUM and McCORDUCK)
DODCI 1031-8.5
VISUALIZATIONSYSTEMS EXPERTSYSTEMS
L
MACHINES THAT CAN RELATE VISUALLY TO THEIR ENVIRONMENTS AS HUMANS CAN.
PROGRAMS THAT MIMIC THE DECISION-MAKING AND PROBLEM SOLVING THOUGHT PROCESSES OF H U M A N EXPERTS.
ROBOTICS MACHINES THAT CAN MOVE AND RELATE TO ASPECTS AS HUMANS CAN.
NATURALLANGUAGES SYSTEMS THAT TRANSLATE ORDINARY HUMAN COMMANDS INTO LANGUAGE COMPUTER PROGRAMS CAN UNDERSTAND AND ACT ON.
THE AI FAMILY TREE (ELISABETH HORWITT 1985)
DODCl 1032-85 -----,"
HISTORY OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE PERIOD PRE--WORLD WAR II ROOTS
KEY EVENTS
FORMAL LOGIC COGNITIVE PSYCHOLOGY
POSTWAR YEARS 1945-1954 PRE-AI FIRST AI PAPERS FORMATIVE YEARS 1955-1960 INITIATION OF AI RESEARCH YEARS OF DEVELOPMENT AND REDIRECTION 1961-1970 SEARCH FOR GENERAL PROBLEM SOLVERS YEARS OF SPECIALIZATION AND SUCCESS 1971-1980 THE DISCOVERY OF KNOWLEDGE-BASED SYSTEMS THE RUSH TO APPLICATIONS 1981INTERNATIONAL COMPETITION AND COMMERCIAL VENTURES PAUL HARMON and DAVID KING
SMALL LABORATORY SYSTEMS FIRST PROTOTYPES EXPERT SYSTEM
WHOLE RANGE OF PROTOTYPE EXPERT SYSTEMS END OF DECADE-FIRST COMMERICAL USES
SEVERAL HUNDRED EXPERT SYSTEMS VENTURE CAPITAL HEAVILY INVESTED JAPANESE FIFTH GENERATION PROJECT DODCl 1(333-85
,I
WHY Ai NOW? • TECHNOLOGY BECOMING AVAILABLE-LOWER COST/AWARENESS • INCREASING COST OF HUMAN EXPERTS • QUALITY IMPROVEMENTS ANTICIPATED-FEWER MISTAKES, MORE CONSTANT • NEED-ESPECIALLY FOR MILITARY APPLICATIONS • SHORTCOMINGS OF CONVENTIONAL PROGRAMMING TECHNIQUES: (COMPATIBILITY WITH HUMAN PROBLEM SOLVING TECHNIQUES) •
MYSTIQUE-"SCIENCE MARCHES ON"
•
SPIN-OFFS?
DODCI 1034-85
CURRENT APPLICATIONS OF AI • EQUIPMENT FAULT DIAGNOSIS
• DISTRIBUTION PLANNING
• INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT
• COMMODITY BROKER
• MILITARY TACTICS
• TECHNICAL TRANSLATION
• MEDICAL DIAGNOSIS
• ENERGY MANAGEMENT
• CRISIS MANAGEMENT
• VEHICLE SCHEDULING
• CLAIMS ASSESSMENT
e PROCESS PLANT MONITORING (TURNER 1985)
DODCI 1035-85
CURRENT APPLICATIONS IN AI SOME EXPERT SYSTEMS
EXPERT SYSTEM MECHO TECH SPERIL CRI'I'FER PHOENIX PROSPECTOR DENDRAL CRYSALIS El_AS SYN XCON/R1 SYNCHEM MEDAS DELTA MYCIN DART, REACTOR INTERNIST/CADUCEUS XSEL CSA RAYDEX VISIONS IMS CALISTO NOAH OP-PLANNER KNOBS MOLGEN
GENERAL FUNCTION Analysis Analysis Analysis Analysis Automatic Programming Data Analysis Data Analysis " Data Analysis Data Analysis Design Design Design Diagnos=s Diagnosis Diagnos,s Diagnos=s Diagnosis Diagnos=s Intelligent Assistance Intelligent Assistance Intelligence Assistance Image Understanding Management Management. Planning Planning Planning Planning
SPECIFIC AREA Mechanical Problems Naval Task Force Threats Earthquake Damage Assessment Digital Circuitry Oil Well Log Modeling Geology Chemistry Protein Crystallography Oil Well Logs Circuitry Synthesis Computer System Configuration Chemical Synthesis Critical Care Medicine Locomotive Troubleshooting Medical Computer Faults "Nuclear Reactor Accidents Medical Computer Sales • Nuclear Power Plant Configuration Radiology Vision Automated Factory Management Project Management Robotics Erand planning Tactical Mission Planning Molecular Genetics DODCI 1090-85
CURRENT APPLICATIONS IN AI Continued
SOME NATURAL LANGUGE SYSTEMS !
TDUS SHRDLU
GENERAL FUNCTION Machine Translation/ Interfacing Machine Translation/ Interfacing Interfacing Interfacing
EXPLORER
Interfacing
INTELLECT NATURALLINK
Interfacing Interfacing
TEAMS MARKETEER POLITICS
Generic Interfacing Interfacing Inference Making
BROKER
Interfacing
STRAIGHT TALK
Interfacing
NATURAL LANGUAGE SYSTEM
LADDER SAM
SPECIFIC AREA
Ship Identification & Loo~ion Generic Story Understanding Electromechanical Repair Location & Manipulation of Three Dimensional Figures Map Generation & Display Data Base Management Dow Jones Data Retrieval & Display Data Base Management Market Analysis Ideological Belief System Simulation Standard & Poor's Data Base Management System Word Processing/ Microcomputer Workstations DODCI 1091-85
,POTENTIAL APPLICATION OF AI • OFFICE AUTOMATION • BANKING AND FINANCE • • • •
INDUSTRY DEFENSE GOVERNMENT EDUCATION and TRAINING
(Mike Turner, 1985) DODCI 1036-85
THE HURDLES TO BE OVERCOME
O LACK OF PROCESSING POWER IN EXISTING COMPUTERS (VHSlC,PARALLEL PROCESSING?) • "KNOWLEDGE-REPRENSENTATION" LANGUAGE (LISP,PROLOG?) • INTERFACE (NATURAL LANGUAGE INTERFACE,
KNOWLEDGE ENGINEERING?) O EXPERTS UNWILLING TO IMPART THEIR EXPERTISE DAVID HARVEY 1984 DODCI 1037-85
Computer Aided Decision Making Data-based System
Knowledge-basedSystem
• Data Base Management System (DBMS)
• Natural Language System
• Management Information System (MIS)
• Expert System
• Decision Support System (DSS)
DODCI 1038-85
I II
...
BY A N Y O T H E R
NAME...,
• Knowledged-based Expert System • Rule-based System (RBS)
• Intelligent Knowledge-based System • Pattern-directed Inference System • Production System • Blackboard System (Mike Turner, 1985)
DODCI 1039-85
GOALS OF EXPERT SYSTEM I
I
I
I
II I
• Substitute for unavailable human expert
Assimilate knowledge of multiple human experts Train new experts (Paul Harmon, David King 1985) DODCI t040-85
Common Properties/Characteristics/ Features of Expert Systems |
I
I
I
I
I
Properties'. • Incorporate human knowledge in conditional If-Then rules • Skill increases at a rate proportional to enlargement of knowledge base • Can solve wide range of complex problems by selecting relevant rules and combining results in appropriate ways • They adaptively determine best sequence of rule execution • Can explain conclusion by retracing lines of reasoning in natural language DODCI 1041-85
Common Properties/Characteristics/ Features of Expert Systems (Cont.) I
•
I
I
I
Characteristics: • Existing knowledge can be refined and new knowledge added (For incremental improvements in system performance) • System able to explain reasoning (Making their logic practically transparent) DODCI 1042-85
Common Properties/Characteristics/ Features of Expert Systems (Cont.) I
•
I
I
Features: • Modular know-how • Knowledge base for storing rules/facts that determine decision • Capacity for incremental development with steady performance improvements • Explanation of results, lines of reasoning, and questions asked • Intelligibly encoded beliefs and problem-solving techniques • Inference chains assembled dynamically by built-in control procedures that can often perform efficient searches DODCI 1043-85 ( F r e d e r i c k Hayes-Roth 1985)
An overview of the human information processing system. The environment The human information processing system The cognitive subsystem Long-term memory (network of associated chunks)
The perceptual subsystem
The motor
subsystem '
Working v memory 3-7 activated chunks)
Stimulus
Buffer
Buffer memories
memories
Muscles, etc
The cognitive processor
DODCI 1045-85
DIVERGENT VS CONVERGENT REASONING •
I_
I
R E S Data
"Algorithm"
U L T S
Divergent Reasoning • Small amount of data--Lots of results • "Von Nuemann" Computer • Example = Payroll Program
Resu, A
Convergent Reasoning • Massive amount of data--Few results • Parallel processing computer • Example = A woman mulls a lifetime of romantic experience before answering her suitor's marriage proposal with a simple "yes". DODCI 1046-85
DEFINITION OF EXPERTISE Human experts are: • Problem solvers • Explainers of results • Learners from experience • Knowledge structurers • Rule seekers (if necessary) • Relevance deciders • Less motivated as knowledge runs out (David Harvey, Mar. 84) DODCI 1047-85
The architecture of a knowledge-based expert system. (The knowledge base is shaded for emphasis.)
::/.:..!-...~:.::::.....:...,:.-:."] [smlt]: value 1 [question: '/~text~'], value 2 [question: '~text~'],...
-attribute name -attachment -attribute type -attribute value -attachment
value n [question: "(te×t~']. EXAMPLE:
prompt
[question: "Which prompt is on your CRT(screen)?"] [smlt): a
[question: "A)"], b
[question: "B>"].
name I) Question attachment
I)
I)Attribute value I)Question attachment I~Attribute value I~Question attachment
User session for these attachments would be: Which prompt is on your CRT(screen]?
liar>
21B> _-? DODCI1106-85
DECLAREDATTACHMENTS I_
i
i
SYNTAX & EXAMPLES
SYNTAX:
attachment: %
Name 1
Name 2
...Name n
-Attachment Section -Attachment
[(attachment name): "[text o| messagel" "[text of messagel"] EXAMPLE:
attachments: explain relerence rationale % attributes: USER FRIENDLYFEATURES [question: "'Have you Included an explanation of how the user" "gains access to attachments in the actions section?" "(display reference rationale(USER FRIENDLY FEATURES))] [reference: "Nagy,Gault,Nagy: Building Your First Expert" "System"] [rationale: "Expert systems should be user friendly and" "attachments are user friendly features of MICRO-PS."] (smlt]: yes. no.
USER FRIENDLYFEATURESSTATUS [smlt]: presenL absent
%
rules:
FRIENDLY FEATURESPRESENT If USER FBIENOLYFEATURES= yes. then USER FRIENDLYFEATURESSTATUS= present, FRIENDLY FEATURESABSENT [I USER FR[EHOLYFEATURES= no. then USERFRIENDLYFEATURESSTATUS - absent % actions: message "Online help is available for questions with this leature:" "(display relerence )USERFRIENDLYFEATURES1)For example, type:" "display relerence[USER FRIENDLYFEATURESIwhen you are prompted" "to answer a question.". obtain USERFRIENDLYFEATURESSTATUS. pause % 000C1110145
DECLAREDATTACHMENTS Syntax
Examples(continued)
II
I
User session for this portion of actions would be: Executing the knowledge base... Online help is available for questions with this feature: ,[display reference (USER FRIENDLY FEATURES)], For example, type: display reference(USER FRIENDLY FEATURES) when you are prompted to answer a question. Have you included an explanation of how the user gains access to attachments in the actions section? {display reference rationale(USER FRIENDLY FEATURES)} 1) YES
2) NO = ? display reference(USER FRIENDLY FEATURES) DEFERRINGCURRENTQUESTION[Type CONTINUEto resume question] Nagy,Gault,Nagy: Building Your First Expert System DEFERRINGCURRENTQUESTION[Type CONTINUEto resume question] ready for command: display rationale(USER FRIENDLY FEATURES) Expert systems should be user friendly and attachments are user friendly features of MICRO-PS. DEFERRINGCURRENTQUESTION[Type CONTINUEto resume question] ready for command: CONTINUE Have you included an explanation of how the user gains access to attachments in the actions section? ,[display reference rationale(USER FRIENDLY FEATURES]], 1l YES
2) NO g0DCI 1108-85
EXAMPLE OF EBBOB DETECTION
DO 1]CHANGE DEFAULT DRIVE
2]OTHEB
=?3 Execution error: illegal selection-try again DO I)CHANGE DEFAULT DRIVE 2]OTHEB -?
DODCI 1109-85
MESSAGE COiYilYIAND Syntax & Example
I
SYNTAX: message "value 1, then 2) B~> =? DODCI1106-85
DECLAREDA:I'TACHMENTS •
SYNTAX & EXAMPLES I
II
SYNTAX: attachment: %
Name 1
Name 2
...Name n
-Attachment Section -Attachment
[[attachment name]: "ltext ol message)" "ltext of message)"] EXAMPLE: attachments: explain relerence rationale % attributes: USER FRIENDLYFEATURES [question: "Have you Included an explanation ol how the user" "'gains access to attachmentsin the actions section?" "(display relerence rationale(USER FRIENDLY FEATURES))] [reference: "Nagy,Gault,Nagy: Building Your First Expert" "System"] [rationale: "Expert systems should be user friendly and" "attachments are user friendly features of MICRO-PS."]
(stall): yes. no. USER FRIENDLYFEATURESSTATUS
Ismlt]: presenL absent
%
rules: FRIENDLY FEATURESPRESENT If USER FRIENDLYFEATURES= yes. then USER FRIENDLYFEATURESSTATUS= present. FRIENDLY FEATURESABSENT if USER FRIEHOLYFEATURES=, no. then USER FRIENDLYFEATURESSTATUS - absent % actions: message "Online help is available for questions with this leature:" "(display relerence (USER FRIENDLYFEATURES])For example, type:" "display referencelUSER FRIENDLYFEATURESIwhen you are prompted" "to answer a question.". obtain USER FRIENDLY FEATURESSTATUS. pause % OODU i I01-.t~
DECLAREDATTACHMENTS Syntax & Examples (continued) User session for this portion of actions would be:
Executing the knowledge base... Online help is available for questions with this feature: {display reference (USER FRIENDLY FEATURES)} For example, type: display reference(USER FRIENDLY FEATURES) when you are prompted to answer a question.
Have you included an explanation of how the user gains access to attachments in the actions section? {display reference rationale(USER FRIENDLY FEATURES)}
1) YES
2) NO = ? display reference(USER FRIENDLY FEATURES)
DEFERRINGCURRENTQUESTION[Type CONTINUEto resume question] Nagy,Gault,Nagy: Building Your First Expert System
DEFERRINGCURRENTQUESTION[Type CONTINUEto resume question] ready for command: display rationale(USER FRIENDLY FEATURES) Expert systems should be user friendly and attachments are user friendly features of MICRO-PS.
DEFERRINGCURRENTQUESTION[Type CONTINUEto resume question] ready for command: CONTINUE Have you included an explanation of how the user gains access to attachments in the actions section? ,[display reference rationale(USER FRIENDLYFEATURES))
1) YES 2) NO DODCI1108-85
EXAMPLE OF EBBOBDETECTION
DO I)CHANGE DEFAULTDRIVE 2)OTHER =?3 Execution error: illegal selection-try again DO
1)CHANGE DEFAULT DRIVE 2)OTHER -?
DOOCI 1109-85
MESSAGE COMMAND Syntax & Example I
SYNTAX:
message "~,text of message>" "". EXAMPLE:
actions:
message " " " WELCOME TO THE PC" " FILE OPERATIONS EXPERT SYSTEM". message "This expert system will assist you in determining if" "you need to change the default disk drive. It will prompt you" "lor answers which you should enter by typing in the number and" "a carriage RETURN. For example, 2|, O 0 C ¢.= (..)
Vision Speech
associate
management
ojo~\S
~'~\'~,~~ ~-~oOS ~,99\-.~c,-,~--
\o
Expert systems
,.~. o ~ ,~
Natural language Planning and reasoning
Symbolic Ik Multiprocessor programmin! processors and operating systems General-purpose High-speed systems siqnal proc( Silicon and gallium arsenide technology VLSI systems ii
Networks Research machines Design tools
Implementation' systems and foundries Interoperability protocols Rapid machine prototyping
J
DODCI 1075-85
Defense Advanced Research Project Agency Strategic Computing Cost Summary (in $Millions) II
Total Military
I I
II
I
FY84
FY85
FY86
FY87
FY88
6
15
27
TBD
TBD
26
50
83
TBD
TBD
16
27
36
TBD
TBD
3
4
TBD
TBD
95
150
TBD
TBD
Application Total Technology
Base Total Infrastructure Total Program
2 l
Support TOTAL
50
• FIVE YEAR TOTAL ESTIMATED AT $600m (Approx $150 million per
year)
eTOTAL OVER NEXT DECADE ESTIMATED TO BE $1 BILLION (Strategic Computing 1983) DODCl 107'6-85
~=.S''~ " DJS~
Advanced Research Proiect Agency A u t o n o m o u s Land Vehicle
I
IIII
II
I
I
Capability: I
• Sense and i n t e r p r e t e n v i r o n m e n t ePlan and reason using sensed and o t h e r data
elnitiate action eCommunicate systems
with
human
and
other
D O D C I 1077-85
De-f.ense Advanced Research Project Agency I
II
Autonomous Land Vehicle I
Continued
III
Specifications: • Cross country at 60 KPH eNavigate to point 50 Kilometers away visually eDetect obstacles eLocate and identify landmarks oMap terrain DODCI 1078-85
Defense Advanced Research Project Agency III
I
I
A u t o n o m o u s L a n d Vehicle I
I
I__
_
I
I
Coot~°ued _
I
Technology: I
i
NEEDED e10-100 billion IPS • 10 gegabytes of
TODAY'S
CAPABILITY
30-40 nTillion IPS 10-30 megabytes
memory
e6500 navigation rules efiring rate-7000 rules/sec
2000 ru les 50-100 RPS
Size/weight/power: 6-15 cubic feet/ less than 500 Ibs/ less than 1 kw of power (1-4 orders of magnitude reductioll in weight, space, and power) DODCI 1079-85
Defense Advanced Research Project Agency I
I
I
Autonomous Land Vehicle (continued] I
I
[
I I
IIII
Use of Technology: I
II
I
• "Smart" Monitors ecruise missiles erobotics for handling, manufacturing eunderwater robots emunitions handling
(Strategic Computing 1983) DODCl 1080-85
Defense Advanced Research Project Agency Pilot's Associate System I
I
I
I
•Objective -Off load lower-level chores like regulation of oil temperature -Perform special functions like detect/diagnosis impending malfunctions
•Characteristics -Trained by pilot -"Know" wealth of general knowledge -"Know" advanced tactics from best pilots -Knowledge base easily updated in dynamic environment -Exchanges knowledge with other associates -Several thousand rules with graphics/speech DODCI 1081-85
Defense Advanced Research Project Agency Naval Battle Management System I
eCVBG Battle Managment System (CVBG BMS) -Integrated into CWC Defense System -Graphically represents battle area with: eEnemy/Friendly OOB eEW Environment eStrike Plan eWeather eOther factors
DODCl 1082-85
Defense Advanced Research Project Agency Naval Battle Management System II
I
I
II
I
Continued
-Generate prioritized estimate of enemy intent -Explain reasoning/sources/probabilities -Generate potential courses of action with likely outcomes/ relative attractiveness -Prepare/disseminate operations plan -"Learn" from each engagement
oLimited System on USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70) • Requires 20,000 Rules/10 BIPS
oWill utilize graphics/speech DODCI 1083-85
INTELLIGENCE IIII
NATURAL, •CREATIVE eCAN ACQUIRE
KNOWLEDGE eSENSORY INPUT eWIDE, WIDE CONTEXT eTRANSITORY eAPPRENTICESHIP eMORE EXPENSIVE eERRATIC eSLIPSHOD eNOT EASILY DOCUMENTED
ARTIFICIAL eUNINSPIRED eMUST BE GIVEN KNOWLEDGE eSYMBOLIC INPUT eNARROW CONTEXT ePERMANANCE eEASILY DUPLICATED eLESS EXPENSIVE eCONSISTENT eTHOROUGH eDOCUMENTABLE
DODCI 1084-85
HUMAN vs COMPUTER PROBLEM SOLVING o
|
I
III
o H I G H LEVEL PERFORMANCE
I
i
• HIGH LEVEL
PERFORMANCE
oBROAD
•NARROW
oSELF C O R R E C T I N G
• NOT PROTECTED
oEMOTION
• STABLE (COLD)
oFATIGUE
olNDEFATIGABLE
oUNAVAILABLE
eAVAILABLE
oBIAS
oLESS BIAS
olMPERIAL
olMPERSONAL
DODCI 1085-.85
THE C O M P U T E R E V O L U T I O N I
I
I
• C o m p u t e r Revolution or Evolution? 1951 Vacuum tube powered UNIVAC I delivered t o U S Census Bureau 1985 Transparent computers in carburators, calculators, clocks, dishwashers, microwave ovens, automatic bank tellers, etc 1951 Single transistor cost $10, Cadillac limousine cost $7,600 1985 If Limo had followed semiconductor cost curve (fall 30-40% per year), it would sell for3¢ instead of $40,000
• C a n w e o v e r sell A I ? DODCI 1086-85
A range of expert systems applicati ons to expect in the 1980s. I I
II
l
I
I I
li
Small-Scale Systems ( _ :200 rules)
Large-Scale Systems ( + 2,000 rules)
J
,0,
Large, hybrid systems
Examples of Packaging
,0,
,e,
Professional workstations
Large, narrow systems
Timeshared systems Proprietary commercial syslems Military and other government systems
Workstations for technicians (automated programming, VLSI design) Workstations for managers
Olher Applications
4'I
Non-systems applications
Small-scale systems
Smart procedures manuals
e
Small decisionsupport systems Smart generic software for PCs Microchips in instruments
Examples of Syslem Building Tools Examples of Syslems
KEE ART
S. 1 OPS5
Exploratory programming Job redesign Cognitive task analysis Informalion as an asset
ES/P ADVISOR EXPERT
BION workslalion
Prospector Drilling Advisor XCON (R. 1) I
I
PUFF "Micro"chip (Helena Labs)
New analysis and design techniques i
L)ODCI 1{]87-85
Market Impact of Various Types of Systems ii
I
I
I
Small, specialized knowledge systems and tools
1985
1995
1990
Cutting.edge companies i;'ii::i..ii! i:.;.!.i.~..:.... ....
Advanced companies
......~.
•
...;
:,:::
Normal companies
Large-scale, hybrid expert systems and tools
1985
1990
Large-scale, narrow expert systems and tools
1990
1985
1995
ii
Cutting-edge companies ".:-.::~:::.':~::.
'..'.~-.:....
. . . .•
..
" ....... "" ..,'"' ~ : ' : :"" ..',....,....:~.t::'..'.'.
" ""
...... ..: .. ~.:i:-.-.::.::,~
Advanced companies
Advanced companies
Normal companies •
Normal companies I
!
II
II
|
__
I
1995
" "::~. '"
" '".~: "'"
:
'-'.h".":..,
::~:~,i::l~~ :.,': ~.~~ :i~i:
~, ,-
:-':L',i,!.
II
I
I
The bands indicate where the action will be over the next ten years OODCI
t088-85
COURSE HIGHLIGHTS II
I
II
I I
I
I
PHASE
TOPIC
1.
Introduction and Overview:
Q
Developing an Expert System !
#
0
The Worldwide challenge
Course Summary
DODCl 1188-86
13.140-3/SH S P R I N G 86
ARTIFICIAL
INTELLIGENCE AND EXPERT FOR GOVERNMENT EXECUTIVES
SYSTEMS
BIBLIOGRAPHY
PHASE 1 - INTRODUCTION/OVERVIEW
Schrage, Michael, "HOW Y O U CAN P R O F I T F R O M THE C O M I N G FEDERAL INFO WAR", The W a s h i n g t o n Post Sept 29, 1985 pBl, B 4 - B 5 ABSTRACT: A s t o r y about the w i n n e r s and losers in the m o s t i n f o r m a t i o n - i n t e n s i v e o r g a n i z a t i o n in the world: the b u r e a u c r a c y of the federal government. Roth, Terence• "FINISHED AT FORTY", The Wall Street J o u r n a l Sept 16, 1985 p43C, 52C ABSTRACT: Are 35 to 4 5 - y e a r - o l d m a n a g e r s who fear c o m p u t e r t e c h n o l o g y in d a n g e r of b e c o m i n g "has-beens"? Gottschalk, Earl C. Jr., " E X E C U T I V E COMPUTING", The W a l l Street Journal Sep 16, 1985 p23C, 37C ABSTRACT: How a few top e x e c u t i v e s are u s i n g t h e i r p e r s o n a l computers. Zehr, Leonard• "THE PAPER PALACE"• The Wall Street J o u r n a l Sept 16, 1985 p 4 0 C ABSTRACT: A d d r e s s e s the m y t h of "the p a p e r l e s s o f f i c e " . SESSION
I
-
INTRODUCTION
TO
ARTIFICIAL
INTELLIGENCE
Andriole, S t e p h e n J., "ARTIFICIAL I N T E L L I G E N C E COMES OF AGE", N a t i o n a l D e f e n s e Dec 1984 p43-46, 50-52 ABSTRACT: A d i s c u s s i o n about the a p p l i c a b i l i t y of AI to the m i l i t a r y a d d r e s s i n g its scope and methods, the players, its role in n a t i o n a l defense• the net effect, and a p r o g n o s i s . Schemmer• B e n j a m i n F., " M I C R O E L E C T R O N I C S A D V A N C E S W I L L PACE D R A M A T I C C H A N G E S IN FUTURE WARS" A r m e d Forces J o u r n a l I n t e r n a t i o n a l 122/2 Sep 1984 p86-88, 91 ABSTRACT: A r e l a t i v e l y n o n - t e c h n i c a l look at s t a t e - o f - t h e art in c o m p u t e r t e c h n o l o g y t h r o u g h the eyes of ADM B o b b y Inman.
4-1
Expert Computer Systems
Bibliography
Williamson, Mickey, "THE HISTORY OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE PART I", PC Week Oct I, 1985 p51-53 ABSTRACT: Excerpt from Williamson's book (Artificial Intelligence for Microcomputers, The Guide for Business Decisionmakers) explaining how AI emerged in the computer industry to set the stage for the movement of technology into the microcomputer arena. Hayes-Roth, Frederick, "RULE-BASED SYSTEMS", C o m m u n i c a t i o n of ACM 28/9 Sep 1985 p921-931 ABSTRACT: Good overview of how "rule-based systems" automate problem solving know-how, provide a means for capturing and refining human expertise, and are proving to be commercially viable. Williamson, Mickey, "NATURAL-LANGUAGE INQUIRY SYSTEM - PART 2", PC Week Oct 8, 1985 p41-42 ABSTRACT: Excerpt for Williamson's book (Artificial Intelligence for Microcomputers, The Guide for Business Decisionmakers) describes Eliza, a natural-language interface developed in 1965.
SESSION
II
-
KNOWLEDGE
BASED
EXPERT
SYSTEMS
OVERVIEW
Oxman, Steven W., "EXPERT SYSTEMS REPRESENT ULTIMATE GOAL OF STRATEGIC DECISION MAKING", Data Management 23/4 Apr 1985 p36-38 ABSTRACT: A look at the related goals and classes of use of expert systems, artificial intelligence systems, decision support systems, management information systems, and data base management systems. Disects the components of expert systems. Lemley, Brad, "ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE: INTELLIGENT SOFTWARE FOR PROBLEM SOLVING", PC Magazine Apr 16, 1985 p108, 110-112 ABSTRACT: Introduces expert systems as the first truly useful application of artificial intelligence. Kinnucan, Paul, "ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE: MAKING COMPUTERS SMARTER", High Technology Nov/Dec 1982 p60-70 ABSTRACT: Good examples of useful expert systems including STEAMER and PROSPECTOR. Insert articles, "How AI Systems Represent Knowledge" and "Business Outlook: Artificial Intelligence." Tello, Ernie, "THE LANGUAGES OF AI RESEARCH", PC Magazine Apt 16, 1985 p173-189 ABSTRACT: Introduction to LISP and PROLOG including stengths and weaknesses of both in insert article.
4-2
Expert Computer Systems
SESSION
III
-
EXISTING
Bibliography
EXPERT
SYSTEMS
AND
TOOLS
Fertig, Robert T., "SMALL EXPERT SYSTEMS OK-AS FAR AS THEY GO", Management Information Systems Week May 22, 1985 p24-25 ABSTRACT: A critical review of capabilities of microcomputer expert systems. Discusses Expert Ease, TIMM, Personal Consultant, and M.I. Kinnucan, Paul, "SOFTWARE TOOLS SPEED EXPERT SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT", High Technology Mar 1985, p16-20 ABSTRACT: Good overview of shell programs currently available including a discussion of their strengths and weaknesses. Derfler, Frank J. Jr., "EXPERT-EASE MAKES ITS OWN RULES", PC Magazine Apt 16, 1985 pi19-124 ABSTRACT: Indepth review of capabilities of Expert Ease. Derfler, Frank J. Jr., "AN AFFORDABLE ADVISOR", PC M a g a z i n e Apr 16, 1985 pi13-i17 ABSTRACT: Indepth review of capabilities of EXSYS.
SESSION
IV
-
NAVY
RESEARCH
LAB
TOUR
Julian, Ken, "DEFENSE PROGRAM PUSHES MICROCHIP FRONTIERS: U.S. INDUSTRY CHALLENGED TO CREATE FASTER, DENSER INTEGRATED CIRCUITS FOR FUTURE MILITARY SYSTEMS", High Technology 5/5 May 1985 p49-55,57 ABSTRACT: Technical discussion on the current state-of-theart in computer technology and how DOD is pushing technology through their very-highspeed integrated circuit (VHSIC, pronounced "vissio") program. Boden, Margaret A., "IMPACTS OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE", Futures 16/1 Feb 1984 p60-69 ABSTRACT: Pretty heavy article which discusses, among other things, robotics, low-level vision, natural language processing and knowledge-based expert systems and their uses for education, science, and technology.
4-3
Expert C o m p u t e r
Systems
PHASE
SESSION
V
-
2
-
DEVELOPING
Bibliography
DEVELOPING
EXPERT
AN
SYSTEMS,
EXPERT
AN
SYSTEM
OVERVIEW
McMullen, B a r b a r a E. and John F., "SPECIALIZED SOFTWARE", P o p u l a r C o m p u t i n g Apr 1985 p75-80 ABSTRACT: A r t i c l e reviews four types of s p e c i a l i z e d problemsolving software for m i c r o c o m p u t e r s giving examples of each. Good o v e r v i e w of software aids available (including e x p e r t systems) for p r o b l e m solving. Michaelsen, Robert H., Donald Michie, and A l b e r t Boulanger, "THE T E C H N O L O G Y OF EXPERT SYSTEMS", Byte Apr 1985 p 3 0 3 - 3 1 2 ABSTRACT: Technical i n t r o d u c t i o n to expert s y s t e m s i n c l u d i n g definitions, m e t h o d s for building, and a review of c o m p u t e r r e s o u r c e s n e e d e d to build and run them. Thompson, B e v e r l y A. and W i l l i a m A., "INSIDE AN EXPERT SYSTEM", Byte Apr 1985 p 3 1 5 - 3 3 0 ABSTRACT: D i s c r i b e s one way that an expert s y s t e m can use a set of rules to conduct a c o n s u l t a t i o n and examines the m e c h a n i c s of o p e r a t i o n and p r o g r a m m i n g c o n s i d e r a t i o n s a s s o c i a t e d with b u i l d i n g an expert system.
SESSION
VI
-
BUILDING
A
SMALL
EXPERT
SYSTEM,
Part
I
Williamson, Micky, "KNOWLEDGE-BASED AND EXPERT SYSTEMS -PART 3", PC W e e k Oct 15, 1985 p53-54 ABSTRACT: Excerpt from W i l l i a m s o n ' s b o o k ( A r t i f i c i a l I n t e l l i g e n c e for Microcomputers, The Guide for B u s i n e s s D e c i s i o n m a k e r s ) w h i c h describes a d o - i t - y o u r s e l f a p p r o a c h to b u i l d i n g k n o w l e d g e - b a s e d or expert systems. It also e x p l a i n s why every p r o b l e m or task cannot be h a n d l e d by an expert s y s t e m and includes p o i n t e r s that can help you select the right t a r g e t s for an A I - b a s e d solution. Fersko-Weis, Henry, "EXPERT SYSTEMS D E C I S I O N - M A K I N G POWER", Personal C o m p u t i n g Nov 1985 p97-i01, 103-105 ABSTRACT: Examines the t h r e s h o l d being crossed by p e r s o n a l c o m p u t e r s allowing users to diagnose problems, reason t h r o u g h p o s s i b l e causes and find solutions. Reviews several Tools c u r r e n t l y available. E x c e l l e n t insert articles, An Expert whose Brain Was Drained, A First Look at Paradox - An AI Data Base, The Inner W o r k i n g s of Expert Systems, S a m p l i n g of A r t i f i c i a l I n t e l l i g e n c e Software.
4-4
Expert
Computer
SESSION
VII
SESSION
VIII
SESSION
IX
Systems
- BUILDING
- BUILDING
- GUEST
Bibliography
A
SMALL
A
SMALL
EXPERT
SYSTEM,
EXPERT
SPEAKER/DEMONSTRATION
4-5
SYSTEM,
BY
Part
PART
TITAN
II
III
Expert C o m p u t e r
Systems
PHASE
SESSION
X
-
THE
GAME
3
AND
Bibliography
-
THE
THE
WORLDWIDE
CHALLENGE
PLAYERS
Rhein, Robert, R., "JAPAN'S R&D CHALLENGE", May 1985 p82-90 ABSTRACT: A m e r i c a n firms and g o v e r n m e n t Japan's p o t e n t i a l h i g h - t e c h n o l o g y d o m i n a n c e of dollars for AI r e s e a r c h and development.
Hardcopy
14/5
are r e s p o n d i n g to by a l l o c a t i n g billions
Boffey, P h i l i p M., "SMALL A G E N C Y QUIETLY PLAYS P O W E R F U L ROLE IN D E V E L O P I N G EXOTIC RESEARCH", The New York Times (National Addition) April 23, 1985 pCl, C5 ABSTRACT: D i s c r i b e s D A R P A ' s role in p u s h i n g the U. S. toward r e v o l u t i o n a r y t e c h n o l o g i e s that are n e g l e c t e d or even o p p o s e d by the m i l i t a r y services and leading industries. Schatz, W i l l i e and John W. Verity, "MILITARY COMPUTING: DARPA'S BIG PUSH IN AI" D a t a m a t i o n 30/2 Feb 1984 p48-50 ABSTRACT: A d d r e s s e s DARPA's role in the $600 million, fiveyear R&D S t r a t e g i c C o m p u t i n g program. Davis, Dwight B., "ASSESSING THE STRATEGIC C O M P U T I N G INITIATIVE", High T e c h n o l o g y 5/4 Apr 1985 p43, 46-49 ABSTRACT: Indepth look at the $600 million, f i v e - y e a r R&D S t r a t e g i c C o m p u t e r Initiative (SDI). Gerencser, Mark and Ron Smeteck, "ARTIFICIAL I N T E L L I G E N C E ON THE BATTLEFIELD", M i l i t a r y T e c h n o l o g y VIII/6 Jun 1984 p86, 89, 91-92 ABSTRACT: Looks at how expert systems can i n c r e a s e the rate at w h i c h d e c i s i o n s are made on the m o d e r n NATO b a t t l e f i e l d and improve the overall accuracy of those decisions. McCommon, Kevin B., "THE RACE FOR THE FIFTH G E N E R A T I O N COMPUTER", National D e f e n s e Dec 1984 p37, 40-41 ABSTRACT: This article d i s c u s s e s M i c r o e l e c t o n i c s and Computer T e c h n o l o g y C o r p o r a t i o n (MCC), a c o n s o r t i u m of about 2 1 U . S . firms, and its m i s s i o n to conduct r e s e a r c h that will help the U.S. m a i n t a i n t e c h n o l o g i c a l leadership in c o m p u t i n g and data p r o c e s s i n g systems. Yoder, S t e p h e n Kreider, "CREATED IN JAPAN", The Wall Street Journal Sept 16, 1985 p 8 2 C - 8 3 C ABSTRACT: Short article d i s c u s s e d the p r o b l e m s the Japanese are h a v i n g with their Fifth G e n e r a t i o n Project.
4-6
Expert Computer Systems
Bibliography
Raike, W i l l i a m M., "THE F I F T H G E N E R A T I O N IN JAPAN", B y t e Apr 1985 p 4 0 1 - 4 0 6 ABSTRACT: S t a t u s r e p o r t on J a p a n ' s F i f t h G e n e r a t i o n Project. M e n t i o n s E S P R I T and U.S. efforts. SESSION
XI
-
GUEST
SPEAKER
FROM
DARPA
Kempe, Frederick, "SILICON SATELLITES", The Wall S t r e e t Journal Sept 16, 1985 p76C, 80C ABSTRACT: The a r t i c l e d i s c u s s e s M o s c o w ' s d e m a n d on its six East E u r o p e a n allies to p r o v i d e the capital, r e s e a r c h and t e c h n o l o g y the S o v i e t s d e s p e r a t e l y need. Bankes, S t e v e n C., "FUTURE M I L I T A R Y A P P L I C A T I O N S FOR K N O W L E D G E E N G I N E E R I N G " , R a n d P u b l i c a t i o n S e r i e s N 2 1 0 2 - A F Feb 1985 ABSTRACT: R e p o r t p r e p a r e d by R a n d C o r p o r a t i o n for U S A F w h i c h e x a m i n e s how a n t i c i p a t e d i m p r o v e m e n t s in c o m p u t e r technology, s p e c i f i c a l l y k n o w l e d g e b a s e d systems, will affect the U S A F m i s s i o n o v e r the next 25 years. In a d d i t i o n to d i s c u s s i n g the p r e s e n t state of the technology, the r e p o r t d i s c u s s e s fifth g e n e r a t i o n machines, VLSI, and the J a p a n e s e F i f t h G e n e r a t i o n Project. A c o m p e h e n s i v e e v a l u a t i o n of n e a r t e r m r i s k s and o p p o r t u n i t i e s is also included.
4-7
Expert
Computer
Systems
PHASE
SESSION
XII
-
Bibliography
4 - COURSE
SUMMARY
SUMMARY
Kneale, Des, "THE U N F I N I S H E D REVOLUTION", Journal Sept 16, 1985 plC, 6C ABSTRACT: O p t i m i s t i c look at e n o r m o u s computer revolution.
The Wall potential
Street of the
W i l l i a m s o n , Mickey, "THE F U T U R E OF A R T I F I C I A L I N T E L L I G E N C E - PART 4", PC W e e k Oct 22, 1985 p 4 7 - 4 8 ABSTRACT: E x c e r p t from W i l l i a m s o n ' s b o o k ( A r t i f i c i a l I n t e l l i g e n c e for M i c r o c o m p u t e r s , The Guide for B u s i n e s s D e c i s i o n m a k e r s ) w h i c h d e s c r i b e s a w i s h list for AI c o m p u t e r s a l o n g w i t h the t e c h n i c a l a d v a n c e s that are n e e d e d to r e a c h these goals.
4-8
