ARTIFICIAL INTUITION, A MUST COMPANION FOR ...

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as Google and Facebook had opened their AI platforms; Google with. TensorFlow and Facebook with torch. Moreover, currently the python programing ...
ARTIFICIAL INTUITION, A MUST COMPANION FOR ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

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ARTIFICIAL INTUITION, A MUST COMPANION FOR ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE An Application to Estimate Shares Values The Human New Revolution on Solving Problems and Making Decisions Big Data is changing very rapidly the way in which we resolve problems and make decisions. Moreover, Artificial Intelligence (AI) has been used as the main tool to help us to manage the enormous quantity of information and data available (Big Data). As the information and data generation is accelerating exponentially, is reasonable to think that AI will be used more and more in the most diverse fields. In this document, a concept of Artificial Intuition (AIn) is introduced. To explain the model, a hypothetical application example to determine share prices in the stock market is described.

Today’s AI Summary AI, as it has been being developed, it’s deeply based on the probability theory, platforms with enormous data and information processing capabilities that: 1. Interact with humans using the best-known interfaces mainly in the recognition of images, text, faces, speech and more. 2. Can manage enormous data and information volumes.

processes can be tested on simulations or on real situations. In a trial and error process, the algorithms are continuously improved. The main ways for machine learning are: a. Unsupervised Learning: The platform creates categories for the information and data and then learns by itself by making billions of simulations. Also, the artificial algorithms can be tested in real situations.

3. Can learn (machine learning process) in a completely unsupervised, supervised or mixed way. By clustering the data and check its correlations, algorithms are derived. The algorithms derived from those

b. Supervised Learning: The users of AI categorize the information and data available and then instruct the platform, with designed algorithms, to group the information and data into those categories. The

Mauricio Quiroga-Pascal Ortega © 2016 ([email protected])

ARTIFICIAL INTUITION, A MUST COMPANION FOR ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

algorithms are then are tested in real situations or in simulations. c. Mixed Learning: The users define some categories and let the system to define other categories. Currently, AI Is Only At 50 % of Its Capacity The AI revolution will grow even further as very important companies as Google and Facebook had opened their AI platforms; Google with TensorFlow and Facebook with torch. Moreover, currently the python programing language is the standard for AI, there’re thousand of python AI open libraries.

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the reasoning used by AI but that follow more their “guts”. Integrating Artificial Intuition So, how to integrate Artificial Intuition (AIn) into the current AI platforms? As in all massive cooperation platforms, the first step is to establish a standard to define Intuition. In my point of view, the Jungian Intuition position is a good perspective to create a model suitable to be used by today’s AI platforms.

Carl Jung

As the linux phenomenon, we can expect the contribution of thousands of people to improve AI continuously. In my point of view, the AI revolution could grow even further if Intuition is integrated into the AI platforms. As a matter of fact, the current AI platforms are only trying to mimic 50 % of the human processes to make decisions and solve problems; most of these platforms lack the integration of the human Intuition. Intuition doesn’t exist because a nature’s whim, it exists as a tool that has been helping the human kind to survive till our days. Moreover, everybody knows somebody very successful that doesn’t uses a lot of

Carl Jung defines Intuition as “perception via the unconscious”, the senses perception is only a starting point to bring images, ideas, possibilities, feelings and so on in a process that is mostly unconscious. In Jung’s model, there are two types of intuitive people. First, the extraverted intuitive type commonly oriented to new but unproved possibilities. Second, the introverted intuitive type that orients herself by images from her unconscious, by exploring the archetypes seeking to perceive meaning. Given this perspective, an AI platform, to have Intuition capabilities, must incorporate: 1. Both types of Intuitive Processes: The extraverted and introverted types.

Mauricio Quiroga-Pascal Ortega © 2016 ([email protected])

ARTIFICIAL INTUITION, A MUST COMPANION FOR ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

2. Archetypes and Spirituality: An AI platform could be used to create AIn algorithms in the three learning processes described before: a. In a supervised way, the user would ask the platform to cluster data in the archetypes defined by Jung. b. In an unsupervised way, the user would ask the platform to cluster and create by itself the algorithms. In this type of machine learning and in the described below, new archetypes categories could be discovered.

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algorithms that can identify and recommend us, for different situations, how much weight to put on AI and on AIn. Integrating Artificial Into Artificial Intelligence: Without using AI, Carl Jung was able to identify archetypes present in all the world’s cultures. For example, for Jung, the mandalas circles are a central archetype in all the world’s religions.

c. In a mixed supervisedunsupervised way, the user would use defined clusters and let the platform to find others. The platform could relate the archetypes with algorithms to groups or individuals in diverse situations. Even further, these correlations could be developed from a global basis to even a one-person level. 3. AIn Weight: In any decision or problem-solving situation, everybody uses simultaneously rationality or intuition and decide (consciously and unconsciously) how much of each to use. Some people, societies and organizations are more skewed towards lots of rationalism whereas other are prefer to use Intuition deeply. Therefore, for any problem solving or decisionmaking situation, in an AIn platform would be vital to have

Jungian archetypes are present all the time, they influence us, consciously and unconsciously, the way in which we feel, think and behave. Therefore, by using AI it’s possible, in any situation, to identify and cluster the main archetypes used by people to make decisions and solve problems. Moreover, the AI platform could be used to run billions of simulations over historical data and information to derivate maximum verisimilitude estimators on archetypes intensity and possible human behaviors. These new algorithms could improve significantly the predictive capabilities of the AI platforms.

Mauricio Quiroga-Pascal Ortega © 2016 ([email protected])

ARTIFICIAL INTUITION, A MUST COMPANION FOR ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

Using natural language processing, image recognition, machine vision, robot process identification and other tools, an AI platform could be used to analyze, in any given situation, Big Data (words, expressions, photos, faces, indexes, etc.) that fit in different archetype categories. Then, algorithms would be developed to predict human behavior in different situations. In the following picture we can see typical Jungian Archetypes represented by several characters of some of the last years most successful pictures.

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Using Artificial Intuition and Artificial Intelligence to Predict Stock Prices Lets imagine we got most of the information and data used and produced near and after the 2008 global financial crisis: Images, texts, news, currencies values, stocks prices and so on. Then, a user defines some clusters for Jungian archetypes and also allows the platform to make their own clustering. The same is done for algorithms. Some of the main 2007 events could be seen in the following images: US Uncontrollable Obesity Rate Epidemic

Iphone Mania

Archetype Iden@fica@on

Harry Po;er Mania

California Uncontrollable Fires

Lets suppose by using a mixed supervised-unsupervised machine Mauricio Quiroga-Pascal Ortega © 2016 ([email protected])

ARTIFICIAL INTUITION, A MUST COMPANION FOR ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

learning approach, with the AI platform, the user is able to determine the following for the 2007’s information and data. The archetype categories in this example are completely Jungian, however, it’s very reasonable to think that some new archetypes would be discovered. •



Archetypal Motifs: The apocalypse archetype appeared with a lot of intensity in all the 2007’s data and information (Uncontrolled obesity and fires, Iraq invasion, etc.) Moreover, in the days with high Apocalypse Archetype intensity, the stocks markets had its worst days. Several algorithms and stadigraphs are generated, for example regressions between the apocalypse archetype intensity and the stocks markets main indicators performance. Archetypal Figures and Events: The hero archetype appeared intensely as Steve Jobs launched the world’s first smartphone. The IPhone is interpreted as “the marriage event archetype” (a new machine that will be married with any person forever). As the Iphone sells soars, so does the apple stock price. The investors move their money from traditional sectors to technology. As they move their money, and the traditional sectors shares decrease their value, more apocalypse archetypes appear.

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In a given period of time, when the traditional AI statistically based algorithms and the rational financial tools as Net Present Value or Beta estimate the investor’s behavior very poorly, the main archetypes and the new algorithms created, that relate archetypes to the investors behavior, are incorporated into the platform processes. Then, using billions of simulations over the historical information and data, algorithms are designed to explain better the investors behavior and have stadigraphs that “give weights” (or even dummy variable functions) to estimate how the investors would weight and use rationality and Intuition into their decision process to put a price to a given stock. In this phase, Deep Learning is used so the platform can continuously improve the archetypes categories and the algorithms used to estimate the investor’s behavior. As time passes, this new AI-AIn platform would be improving its estimation capabilities continuously. Therefore, a financial company with such a platform would have enormous incentives to make its AI-AIn platform as secret as possible. Furthermore, such a tool would give the company an enormous competitive advantage; an advantage that would grow continuously as the deep learning process of the platform continues.

The new algorithms created are then depurated and integrated to the AI system in the following way (this is only one of the possibilities).

Mauricio Quiroga-Pascal Ortega © 2016 ([email protected])

ARTIFICIAL INTUITION, A MUST COMPANION FOR ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

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Next Steps This document is only a proposition and I haven’t written it to create a new standard. My idea is to start cooperation between people from different fields and develop collaboratively a very strong Artificial Intuition Platform for the Human Kind’s benefit. I have already started to test some of the Jungian archetypes in several historical events where there’s enough information and data to play. If you want to contact me to talk more about these ideas, please don’t hesitate to contact me; my email is at the bottom of each page. Thank you and happy machine learning!

Mauricio Quiroga-Pascal Ortega © 2016 ([email protected])