ASSESSING THE IMPACTS OF INTERNET USE IN ... - Oxford Academic

International Journal of Public Opinion Research Vol. 21 No. 4 ß The Author 2009. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The World Association for Public Opinion Research. All rights reserved. doi:10.1093/ijpor/edp046 Advance Access publication 3 November 2009

ONLINE NETWORK SIZE, EFFICACY, AND OPINION EXPRESSION: ASSESSING THE IMPACTS OF INTERNET USE IN CHINA Fei Shen, Ning Wang, Zhongshi Guo and Liang Guo ABSTRACT The severe internet censorship implemented in China naturally raises substantial doubt about the potential democratic functions of the internet. This study presents some initial empirical evidence for internet use’s impact on online opinion expression in Mainland China by analyzing three survey datasets collected by the World Internet Project in 2003, 2005, and 2007. Results reveal a positive relationship between internet use and online expression. The positive association is partially mediated by online network size, but not necessarily by internet efficacy. Although government censorship has in a measure successfully stifled people’s willingness to speak out, it is argued that the networking function of the internet could still bring incremental changes to the Chinese society through constructing loosely structured networks.

The notion of democracy not only speaks to a form of government in which power is held by ordinary people (Dahl, 2000), but implies a civic culture where an active citizenry could be found (Almond & Verba, 1989). Despite the authoritarian government in China, the rapid spread of the internet in the most populous country seems to have gradually bred a universe of alternative discourses to official propaganda with a swelling rank of empowered constituents. Lying at the core of the grassroots empowerment is a relatively less constrainable conduit for expression introduced by new communication

This article was first submitted to IJPOR December 12, 2008. The final version was received September 9, 2009. An earlier version of this paper was presented at the Annual Conference of AEJMC, Chicago, IL USA August 6-9, 2008. The authors wish to thank the anonymous reviewers and Lance Holbert for their constructive comments on earlier versions of this paper.

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technologies. The burgeoning communications in Chinese virtual communities implicate the formation of a nascent civic sphere (Yang, 2003a,b,c) which merits serious scholarly attention. The current study presents some initial empirical evidence as to whether and how the use of the internet can help incubate one’s willingness to express online, and thus facilitate public communication in the context of a post-communist regime. Willingness to express (Noelle-Neumann, 1974; Hayes, Scheufele, & Huge, 2006) has been one of the oft-researched topics in public opinion studies. Normatively speaking, free and vibrant discussions in public arena are the sine qua non of a civic society (Habermas, 1962/1989, 1981/1987). But, the path from theoretical ideal to social practices is usually paved with conceivable and unknown obstacles of various types. As Noelle-Neumann (1974, 1993) observes, the media plays a crucial role in the development of the spiral of silence as people rely heavily on the media for opinion climate evaluation and people are less likely to voice their opinion publicly when they perceive themselves to hold the minority opinion. However, potential social sanction based on one’s perception of majority opinion is but one source of force inhibiting one from speaking out. Free exchanges of ideas could fall prey to many other factors, for instance outright censorship from the state, a less civil discussion environment, and cultural norms that may deter many from striking up a conversation with strangers. Possibly, internet users in China could face these problems. For a long time, in both theory and practice, public communication in China well fits a passive recipient model under the Party’s reign. Personal free expression in the public domain was minimal, and when occasionally seen individual expression was no more than a piece of well-ornamented propaganda. Ordinary people were largely insulated from the process of social discourse construction, which by Leninist theory should be monopolized by the party who bears the duty of educating the mass. The news media was literally intrusive state apparatus, filled with monolithic and predictable propaganda crafted by party journalism (Zhao, 1998), intending to impose ideological hegemony on society and homogenize individual differences (Lee, 1990). This collective experience culminated during the cultural revolution, when some people even kept personal opinion from their significant others in fear that voicing dissents would incur penalty (Liu, 1987; Esherick, Pickowicz, & Walder, 2006; Wu & Engelmann, 2006). Thanks to the Party-initiated widespread economic reforms urged by market imperatives, the rigidity of clamping down on freedom of expression has at least shown some signs of loosening in recent years, with setbacks and selectivity though. The media in China started to resort to audience appeals at the expense of party line propaganda. But, compared to the thrust delivered by the internet, reforms carried out in the traditional media domain appear

ASSESSING IMPACTS OF INTERNET USE IN CHINA

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rather pale. The inception of the internet in China opened a novel venue for the public to exchange information and ideas, and the pace of growth is impressive. The number of netizens was 8.9 million at the end of 1999, 79.5 million at the end of 2003, and 210 million in December 2007. In 2008, the size of internet users (298 million) in China leaped to the first place in the world (CNNIC, 2009). Many theorists have discussed the potential role of the internet in the process of social transformation. Writings from Europe and North America cluster around three ideals (Dahlberg, 2007): (i) a liberal model perceiving the internet as assisting individual expression in favor of their own interest; (ii) a communitarian model emphasizing spirits of sharing and values generated in virtual community; and (iii) a deliberative model underscoring rational public deliberation. The reference to expression in all three models is suggestive of the power of public discourse. Yet these ideals are largely products of Western societies where individualism and representative democracy are the main cultural and institutional ingredients. The unique Chinese sociopolitical landscape makes none of these models a fitting description of the situation for China. In particular, the bedrock for a laissez-faire communication model, free expression, is absent, if not seriously hampered by the state. It is said that China today possesses the world’s most sophisticated internet monitoring system and the internet in China is censored with unrivaled efficiency (Cherry, 2005). Censorship of the internet in China comes in many different forms, including using legislation power to restrain accessing sensitive content, exercising political control over internet service and content providers, and inducing self-censorship (Gomez, 2004). The construction of the ‘‘impenetrable firewall’’ and the deployment of cyber police forces, along with other legal and political measures (Sohmen, 2001) pose a serious question mark over the internet’s role as a potential tool to be utilized by grassroots to generate alternative discourses and thus to push for reforms. However, some observers argue that absolute control over the internet in China is impractical and the government has not yet found a solution to the problem (Lacharite, 2002; Endeshaw, 2004). Irrespective of the de facto censorship efficiency, the existence of state censorship could translate into an imagined surveillance force, intimidating users into self-censorship (Harwit & Clark, 2001), the consequence of which could be a widespread indifference to participation in the virtual community. Political factors aside, cross-cultural differences add more layers of ambiguity to the functionality of the internet in China. First, the high-powerdistance feature of the Chinese society (Hofstede, 1993) might help catalyze self-censorship. In a high-power-distance environment where greater tolerance for inequality in power can be found, conformity is more likely to happen in the presence of government censorship policy. Second, while most westerners

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consider discussion and conversation are for social purposes, in Asian cultures, talk is required only when there is a point to make (Bruneau, 1973; Sifianou, 1997). Despite that the observation is made in reference to face-to-face interactions, the use of internet will not likely completely wipe out cultural differences in social norms and thus the majority of Chinese internet users could refrain themselves from voicing out. In short, the technology itself can by no means constitute a harbinger for free expression, active civic discussion participation, and social change in concrete and definitive terms. Local context has to be factored into the equation when examining the impacts of the internet in China.

COMBATING T HE SPIRAL OF LU RKIN G: INT ERNET EFFICACY, AND ONLINE NETWORK SIZE Given the current online environment in China, will the use of the internet, a promising tool as it is, promote public communication? Is it possible that the existing political and cultural status quo in China facilitate a ‘‘spiral of lurking’’, leaving the majority of the users to be mere onlookers? Are there any intermediate variables which can help connect internet use and active online opinion expression? With these questions, the current study intends to explore the pro-civic functions of internet use in China. Specifically, since participation in conversation and deliberation is an important element of civil society (Habermas, 1962/1989, 1981/1987), the study focuses on Chinese internet users’ likelihood of making content contributions online, such as posting and replying to discussion threads in online forums. Adopting the spiral of silence theory (Noelle-Neumann, 1974, 1993) as a starting point, we seek empirical connections between internet use and online expression. In addition, informed by theory of planned behavior (Ajzen, 1988, 1991) and communication infrastructure theory (Kim & Ball-Rokeach, 2006), the study introduces two possible theoretical routes from internet use to online expression: internet efficacy and online social network size. The spiral of silence theory argues that individuals holding a minority opinion will conform to the opinion held by the majority and remain silent to avoid social isolation because individuals have an inherent tendency to avoid social isolation (Noelle-Neumann, 1974; Salmon & Kline, 1985; NoelleNeumann, 1993). The theory has received numerous empirical tests but the results remain ambiguous (Glynn & McLeod, 1984; Price & Allen, 1990; Salmon & Neuwirth, 1990; Katz & Baldassare, 1994). Nevertheless, many researchers argue that perceived opinion climate is only one factor that has an impact on individuals’ likelihood of speaking out (Price & Allen, 1990; Lasorsa, 1991; Hayes, et al., 2006). Of particular relevance to the case of China is whether or not the introduction and use of the internet could


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confer a sense of empowerment to its users. Non-participation is a form of self-censorship (Hayes, et al., 2006), which suggests the lack of confidence. In this connection, the outcome of internet use is contingent not upon its technical potentiality but upon users’ subjective perceptions. INTERNET EFFICACY People’s perception of the internet plays a fundamental role in determining how they utilize the technology. Efficacy speaks to one’s belief in the utility of a type of behavior or a social entity (Bandura, 1986). For political and civic activities, efficacy is demonstrated to be closely associated with its behavioral outcomes (Verba & Nie, 1972; Finkel, 1985; Pinkleton, Austin, & Fortman, 1998; Burns, Schlozman, & Verba, 2001). More specific to one’s willingness to express, Neuwirth and Frederick (2004) incorporated concepts derived from the theory of planned behavior (Ajzen, 1988, 1991) into the spiral of silence framework, and found perceived behavioral control, a concept similar to Bandura’s (1986) external efficacy, is linked to opinion expression and discussion. Similarly, Lasorsa (1991) discovered that a self-efficacious person who believes in his or her capacity to make a difference is more likely to speak out than others. Some more recent studies (Jang & Park, 2007; Yun & Postelnicu, 2007) also attest to the notion that willingness to express is influenced by people’s level of efficacy, sometimes even more so than it is influenced by their awareness of the majority opinion. With these, it follows that if internet users in China with an optimistic view toward new technologies perceive the internet as a tool for communicating ideas and for being heard by the government, they will be more likely to express themselves online. It is therefore proposed that: H1: Internet efficacy is positively related with online expression. Albeit the relationship between efficacy and expression is relatively unambiguous and context-free, a more important and perplexing question, in the case of China, is whether online experience will help nurture a sense of efficacy, a perception that communication in online communities will formulate public opinion of higher quality and counterbalance the Party’s paternalistic control of social affairs. Studies from North America suggest that internet use is a correlate of political efficacy (Miller & Reese, 1982; Jennings & Zeitner, 2003; Johnson & Kaye, 2003; Kenski & Stroud, 2006). But, scarce empirical evidence has been documented concerning the relationship between people’s efficacy of internet use in China. The situation remains opaque and predictions could be conceived in both directions. On the one hand, harsh censorship from the state could breed a pessimistic attitude toward the utility of the internet. The government has been effective in relying on the fear of possible punishment to guarantee an

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effective self-censorship. In almost all Chinese online forums, banned keywords filters are embedded into the system and forum moderators have the power to delete messages of ‘inappropriate content’. Frequent internet users are more likely to be familiar with the existence and prevalence of government censorship and therefore hold a negative view toward internet’s potentiality of grassroots empowerment. With these, it seems internet use is negatively correlated with internet efficacy. But on the other hand, compared to the traditional media outlets (i.e., newspapers and television) tightly controlled by the Party through intricate bureaucratic organizations, the internet still enjoys the highest de facto freedom in China. The internet in China exhibits more diverse and alternative viewpoints than the traditional media, and rumors and personal expression are easier to be found online. Online discourse could challenge governmental actions (Peng, 2005) and online opinion frames sometimes even contribute to the formation of traditional media frames of news coverage (Zhou & Moy, 2007). Research shows that the expressive function is ranked very high among all utilities provided by the internet in China (Zhu & He, 2002). Therefore, from a relative standpoint, internet use could possibly enhance people’s belief in its function of facilitating freer expression. Experienced users who frequently use the internet might know the leeway of avoiding censorship, as is demonstrated by the recent fad of ‘‘grass–mud horse’’ in Chinese online forums (Wines, 2009). Facing with diametric evidence, it is difficult make an exact prediction here, but we offer the following hypothesis. H2: Internet use is related with internet efficacy, although the direction of the relationship is unclear. ONLINE NETWORK SIZE In addition to efficacy, another intermediate factor that relates internet use to expression is online network size, which can be conceptualized as a network resource similar to social capital (Coleman, 1988; Putnam, 2000) that promotes communication and discussion. Social network size is found to be positively related to participation (Leighley, 1990; McLeod, Scheufele, & Moy, 1999), conversation, and deliberation (Moy & Gastil, 2006). These findings resonate with a broader view held by political scientists (Olsen, 1972) and sociologists (Calhoun, 1988) that social interactions grounded in interpersonal networks enhance social participatory behavior. In addition, communication infrastructure theory (Kim & Ball-Rokeach, 2006) asserts that access to community resources is a critical factor in civic engagement. When embedded in an online forum where individuals possess friendship and feel a sense of belonging, they will be more likely to participate in discussions. A large online network can also translate into positive perceptions of opinion climate. Perceived friendliness of opinion climates bolsters one’s


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willingness to argue with people with different opinions (Kim, Wyatt, & Katz, 1999) whereas hostile media perception inhibits one’s willingness to engage in discursive practices (Hwang, Pan, & Sun, 2008). Online network size is a variable of high relevance to online expression in the case of China in that the nascent online discussion environment in China has yet to develop a set of norms of civility for individual expression. Virulent tones and verbal expletives could be frequently found in online forums when discussions involve controversial topics. In a qualitative study of Chinese internet users’ online forum participation, Arse`ne (2008) found that personal attacks are one of the biggest concerns of the interviewees: one interviewee mentioned that he stopped publishing opinions when others started to insult him. Given the potentially dangerous discussion environment, perceived social support derived from an online network seems to be of high value. In a nutshell, more acquaintances and friends mean more confidence to speak out and a large online interpersonal network is expected to encourage expression. H3: Online network size is positively related with online expression. The internet helps connect geographically dispersed anonymous individuals together, serving as an infrastructure for communication. Given its nature of decentralized control (Rafaeli & LaRose, 1993), the internet bears significant opportunities for people to be related to one another (Lea & Spears, 1995), creating what has been labeled ‘‘social capital’’ (Coleman, 1988). The use of the internet is able to construct weak ties (Haythornthwaite, 2002), which are theorized to be highly valuable for collective action (Granovetter, 1978). Weak ties are highly susceptible to dissolution, yet are easy to breed. Discussions and other forms of interactions online lead to relational exchanges and the building of communities. Studies observe that people do form relationships in cyberspace, and internet use was associated with greater levels of social interaction (Parks & Floyd, 1996; Katz, Rice, & Aspden, 2001; Wellman, Haase, Witte, & Hampton, 2001). These arguments seem to hold true in the context of China. In studying Qiangguo Luntan and Huaxia Zhiqing, two Chinese online forums, Yang (2003b) argues that the internet provides new possibilities for citizen participation through constructing necessary social basis: citizen groups. It is proposed therefore individuals who use the internet more frequently are more likely to develop a larger interpersonal network resulted from online interactions with others. H4: Internet use is positively related with online network size. INTERNET USE The spread of the internet in China plays a role in the process of opinion expression in a number of ways. The above discussions lay out a theoretical model characterized by two mediators that connect internet use and online

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FIGURE 1. Predicting online expression (endogenous relationships) Online Network Size H4

H3

H5a

Online Expression

Internet Use H5b H2

H1

Internet Efficacy

Note: Dashed lines indicate indirect relationship.

expression, internet efficacy and online network size. First, if an individual believes that speaking out can acquire attention or facilitate change expression will be more likely to happen. Second, the harsh online discussion environment in China might intimidate a new or less frequent internet user from posting messages, but with the growth of one’s number of acquaintances online, the fear of speaking out would subsequently fade away. As shown in Figure 1, H1 and H3 link the two mediators to the final dependent variable, online expression, and H2 and H4 refer to the direct relationships between internet use frequency and the two mediators, online network size, and internet efficacy. Of course, these two mechanisms do not exhaust all possible explanations. Since online expression itself is a form of active internet use, in addition to the indirect relationship, a direct association between internet use frequency and online expression is expected. H5a: Internet use has a direct positive impact on online expression. H5b: Internet use has an indirect positive impact on online expression through their corresponding mediators, internet efficacy, and online network size. METHODS DATA Secondary data analysis was conducted to test our hypotheses. The data for this study came from three cross-sectional World Internet Project (WIP) sponsored surveys conducted in China in 2003, 2005, and 2007. The Center for Social Development at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) implemented survey designing and fielding for WIP locally. The 2003 and 2005 studies were face-to-face surveys using multistage cluster sampling method and the 2007 study was a telephone survey using RDD (random digit dialing) sampling method. The use of multiple datasets collected at different time points not only allows for internal replication but provides an opportunity for identifying changes as well.


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The primary sampling unit in all three surveys is a city. Because of the uneven development of the internet in China, cities were not randomly chosen; instead, balanced combinations of economically well-off and lagging cities were selected: the 2003 survey sampled in 12 cities, the 2005 survey five cities, and the 2007 survey seven cities. To steer clear of regional differences when making cross-year comparison, only cities overlapped in three surveys were retained for analysis. They were: Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Chengdu, and Changsha. The former three represent well-developed metropolises while and latter two represent mid-size cities in China. For the 2003 and 2005 surveys, local residential communities (secondary sampling unit) were firstly randomly selected within each city. In each chosen community, households were then sampled randomly. Given the low internet penetration rate in China in 2003, internet users within the selected households had a priority to be interviewed. The 2005 survey employed the Kish method to select a respondent within a household. The 2007 survey was conducted through RDD telephone interviews. After all local telephone prefixes were obtained from telephone number databases, a series of phone numbers were generated by combining the prefixes with a four-digit random number. The generated numbers were screened of non-working numbers and then used for the survey. The response rates are 35.1, 24.3, and 16.5 percent in 2003, 2005, and 2007 respectively (RR3 according to AAPOR, 2009). It should be acknowledged that the response rates are not impressive and generalizations based on the results of this study should be made with caution. It should also be noted that the samples in three surveys are not representative of the Chinese population. All studies focussed on urban residents and people in rural areas were heavily underrepresented, in as much as the primary interest of WIP studies is to investigate internet use behaviors. Nonetheless, the limitation of the data does not preclude its values. In particular, the use of multiple datasets could provide a chance of triangulation, thus avoiding making inferences based on idiosyncratic patterns. After data cleaning, a total of 6547 (2358 in 2003, 2395 in 2005, and 1794 in 2007) cases were used for analysis in this study. A detailed description of the samples was provided in Appendix A. MEASUREMENT Control variables. Four demographic variables were included as controls: gender, age, education, and household income. Gender was coded as a dichotomy (female ¼ 2), with an approximate balance for males and females (males: 2003—50.3 percent; 2005—46.4 percent; 2007—50.5 percent). Age was measured on a five-point scale ranging from 17 to 59 (median: 2003—2; 2005—3; 2007—3). Education was a five-point ordinal variable spanning from lower than primary education to higher than graduate school education (median: 2003—3,

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high school; 2005—3, high school; 2007—4, some college). Income was measured by self-reported monthly income in Chinese Yuan (2003: M ¼ 1440.50, SD ¼ 1569.82; 2005: M ¼ 1108.56, SD ¼ 853.48; 2007: M ¼ 6872.25, SD ¼ 9836.40). Note that in 2003 and 2005 income was defined as personal income while the 2007 survey asked household income. To resolve this issue, income was standardized within years. Internet use. Six questions related to a variety of online activities were asked to measure the extent to which people use the internet on a scale ranging from 0 to 10 where zero means never and 10 means very frequently. The items included: email use (full sample: M ¼ 3.79, SD ¼ 3.82; user only: M ¼ 6.33, SD ¼ 2.90), bulletin board post reading (full sample: M ¼ 2.95, SD ¼ 3.20; user only: M ¼ 4.90, SD ¼ 2.70), news reading (full sample: M ¼ 4.11, SD ¼ 3.89; user only: M ¼ 6.86, SD ¼ 2.52), instant messaging (full sample: M ¼ 3.58, SD ¼ 3.37; user only: M ¼ 5.98, SD ¼ 3.08), chat room use (full sample: M ¼ 3.06, SD ¼ 3.37; user only: M ¼ 5.11, SD ¼ 2.93), and online gaming (full sample: M ¼ 3.59, SD ¼ 3.66; user only: M ¼ 6.00, SD ¼ 2.82). The Cronbach’s Alphas for these items are .994 and .723 for full sample and user only sample, respectively. Online network size, internet efficacy, and online opinion expression. Online network size was conceptualized as the size of the social network, which forms through online activities; however, the relationship does not need to be extended to off-line interaction. Respondents were asked to give out estimates for both the number of friends they made online (M ¼ 6.47, SD ¼ 19.38), and the number of friends they frequently keep in touch with online (M ¼ 2.28, SD ¼ 7.16). The correlation coefficients for the two items are .600, .684, and .628 for 2003, 2005, and 2007. The conceptualization of internet efficacy was primarily externally situated (Bandura, 1986); that is, people’s feeling about whether the internet will empower and benefit them politically. Three 10-point Likert-scale items were subsumed under this measurement: the internet can help people have a say in politics (full sample: M ¼ 6.74, SD ¼ 1.96; user only: M ¼ 6.72, SD ¼ 2.00); the internet can help people be better informed about political affairs (full sample: M ¼ 7.42, SD ¼ 1.75; user only: M ¼ 7.52, SD ¼ 1.74); and the internet can help government officials gain a better idea about public opinion (full sample: M ¼ 7.10, SD ¼ 2.04; user only: M ¼ 7.10, SD ¼ 2.10). It is possible that internet users who possess high efficacy do not want to be heard by the government. But, they only constitute a small group of radical activists in China, possibly with an agenda to sabotage the rule of the Communist Party. For moderate opinion holders who want to participate in governmental process, they do want to be heard. The Cronbach’s alphas for the three items are .717, .711, .621 for 2003, 2005, and 2007.


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Online opinion expression was the final endogenous variable, conceptualized as the general frequency of active content contribution online, as opposed to lurking. It was operationalized as the frequency of posting one’s opinion online (primarily through using bulletin board systems), measured on a fivepoint Likert scale, from never to frequently. Among the internet users in our samples, more than 50 percent of them do not post their opinions at all. Around 30 percent of the users do so sometimes, and another 10 percent post their opinions frequently. The arithmetic means for this variable are 2.88 (SD ¼ 1.24), 2.54 (SD ¼ 1.25), and 2.75 (SD ¼ 1.39) for 2003, 2005, and 2007. Data analyses. Full-information maximum likelihood structural equation modeling (SEM) with multigroup modeling method was employed to investigate the direct and indirect influence of internet use on online opinion expression. The advantage of using SEM lies in its function of providing indirect path estimates, along with a holistic model-fit test, so that the difference in coefficients (Byrne, 2004) across years could be assessed. Because of the secondary nature of the dataset, not all variables were measured with multiple indicators. Therefore, hybrid approach (Holbert & Stephenson, 2002, 2003) was used to the construct the measurement and structural models. The modeling process took three general steps, using AMOS 16. First, confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) was run for the endogenous latent variable portion of the model to assess measurement fit. All multiple-item measures were included in the analysis, including internet use, network size, and internet efficacy. Second, because the data were collected in three different periods, multigroup CFA was performed to ascertain measurement factor loading equivalence across datasets. Third, by fixing all measurement path coefficients to be equal across years, a structural model was set up to test our hypotheses (H1–H5). All endogenous paths in the structural model were set to be freely estimated across three datasets. All demographic variables were allowed to be related to the endogenous variables in the model. Notably, in attempt to avoid potential bias incurred by the difference between internet users and non-users, all the hypotheses were examined twice, first with a model including all respondents (N ¼ 6547) and subsequently with a netizen-only model (N ¼ 3921). RESULTS MEASUREMENT MODEL The measurement model (Figure 2) fits the data well for the entire respondent pool (CFI ¼ .96, RMSEA ¼ .04), with a 2 ¼ 1650.51, df ¼ 123, p < .001. When all factor loadings were constrained to be equal across three datasets, the fit statistics did not change substantially (CFI ¼ .94, RMSEA ¼ .05, 2 ¼ 2684.5, df ¼ 92, p < .001), suggesting measurement equivalence across

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FIGURE 2. Confirmatory factor analysis no. of friends news

Network size no. of close friends

email bbs

Internet use Eff1

IM gaming

Internet efficacy

Eff2

chatroom Eff3 Note: Dashed lines indicate dropped items.

groups. However, when the same model was applied to internet users, the model fit statistics become less satisfactory. By examining individual items, we found that the factor loading of chatroom use varies considerably across three years. One possible explanation is that web-based chatroom is losing its popularity in China. The data corroborate with this guess. The means for chatroom use for 2003, 2005, and 2007 show a monotonous decline (M ¼ 0.69, 0.47, and 0.31 for 2003, 2005, and 2007). Therefore, this item was dropped to maintain measurement consistency. The revised model fit the data fairly well (full sample: CFI ¼ .96, RMSEA ¼ .04, 2 ¼ 1280.03, df ¼ 107, p < .001; user only: CFI ¼ .93, RMSEA ¼ .03, 2 ¼ 610.03, df ¼ 107, p < .001 with all factor loadings constrained to be equally estimated across three datasets. DESCRIPTIVE ANALYSES In general, demographic variables have a robust impact on the endogenous variables in the model (Table 1). Young people, males, and respondents with higher education are more like to use various types of internet services. Income is a significant predictor for internet use in 2003. Nonetheless, the significance is attenuated in the 2005 and 2007 datasets, particularly among users, demonstrating the diffusion of the internet among different segments of society in China. Younger people, males, and individuals with lower education tend to have larger online network. Interestingly, level of internet efficacy is not predicted by any demographic variables consistently. In 2003, elder respondents are more likely to feel efficacious about the function of the internet, but the 2005 and 2007 data do not replicate this pattern. In 2007,

.465 .124 .371 .087

.465 .178 .393 .050

2005 Age Gender Edu Income


Note: All entries are standardized estimates. p < .001; p < .01; p < .05; yp < .10.

.481 .130 .382 .085


All

.587 .139 .265 .063

.323 .051 .265 .024

.399 .066 .197 .062

Users

Internet use

.076 .047 .080 .051

.122 .062 .130 .030

.151 .059 .137 .050

All

.017 .062 .091 .052

.134 .097 .127 .025

.145 .070 .126 .048

Users

Network size

TABLE 1. The impacts of demographics on endogenous variables

.017 .031 .158 .000

.020 .001 .040 .009

.081 .032 .027 .009

All

.058 .031 .169 .027

.014 .007 .003 .031

.075 .008 .004 .007

Users

Efficacy

.084 .067 .057 .007

.024 .022 .001 .030

.078 .049 .080 .031y

All

.193 .082 .118 .022

.007 .039 .031 .027

.030 .053 .084 .040y

Users

Opinion expression


463

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education is negatively related to internet efficacy, suggesting a growing sense of cynicism among social elites. As for the final endogenous variable online expression, females and individuals with lower education level are more likely to express themselves in online forums. STRUCTURAL MODEL The full sample model achieved satisfactory fit statistics: 2 ¼ 3301.67; df ¼ 230; p < .001; CFI ¼ .930; RMSEA ¼ .045. Table 2 (the full sample model columns) shows the coefficient estimates. H1 posited that higher internet efficacy will lead to online expression. As far as the full sample model is considered, the evidence partially supported the hypothesis: there is a positive association between internet efficacy and online expression in 2003 and 2005 ( ¼ .037, p < .05 and ¼ .039, p < .10), but the effect fails to materialize in 2007 ( ¼ .034, n.s.). H2 proposed a significant relationship of unknown direction between internet use and internet efficacy. This hypothesis was borne out by the data across all three years ( ¼ .096, p < .01; ¼ .098, p < .01, and ¼ .101, p < .05). Internet users are more likely to possess higher levels of internet efficacy. H3 predicted that people with a larger online network size would be more likely to express themselves online. Affirmative results could be observed from the positive coefficient between online network size and online expression frequency ( ¼ .067, p < .01; ¼ .099, p < .001, ¼ .048, p < .10). H4 predicted that internet use would facilitate the growth online network. The data corroborated the hypothesis and a robust effect size is observed ( ¼ .396, p < .001, ¼ .417, p < .001, ¼ .381, p < .001). Finally, H5a proposed a direct relationship between internet use and online opinion expression and H5b proposed the effect is mediated by internet efficacy and online network size. The results attested to the hypotheses with two pieces of evidence. The impacts of internet use on online expression could be partitioned into two components: direct effect and indirect effects. First, internet use was found to have a large direct effect on online expression ( ¼ .750, p < .001, ¼ .693, p < .001, ¼ .686, p < .001). Second, internet use had an indirect influence on online expression through efficacy and online network size ( ¼ .030, p < .05, ¼ .045, p < .05, ¼ .022, n.s.). However, it is noteworthy that the magnitude of the indirect effect was far smaller than that of the direct effect and the indirect effect was not significant in 2007. In sum, all hypotheses received full or partial support for the full sample model. Although results from the full sample model lent much evidence to the hypotheses, it is possible that these ‘‘effects’’ were derived from the stark difference between internet users and non-users along some unmeasured dimensions, which could potentially bias the estimates. For further validation of the results above, it is critical to examine a model including netizen only. If convergence of evidence could be established through triangulation, more

– – – – – – – – –

.750 .030

.417 .098

.693 .045

.381 .101

.686 .022 .048y

.099

.067

Network size

.396 .096

Note: All entries are standardized estimates. p < .001; p < .01; p < .05; yp < .10.

2003 Network size Internet Efficacy Expression Direct effect Indirect effect 2005 Network size Internet Efficacy Expression Direct effect Indirect effect 2007 Network size Internet Efficacy Expression Direct effect Indirect effect

Internet use

Full sample model

–

– –

–

– –

–

– –

.034

.039y

.037

Internet efficacy

TABLE 2. Direct and indirect effects within endogenous model

.866 .013

.401 .085

.694 .036

.283 .054

.592 .026

.301 .058

Internet use

.119

.074

.041 –

– –

–

– –

–

– –

Network size

Netizen-only model

–

– –

–

– –

–

– –

.046

.052

.058

Internet efficacy


465

466


confidence in the results could be obtained. Hence, the same structural model was applied to internet users. When the same model was estimated against the netizen-only data, it was found that the fit statistics did not suggest a satisfactory fit (CFI ¼ .82, RMSEA ¼ .05, 2 ¼ 2089.83, df ¼ 230, p < .001). One possibility is that the underlying structure of one of the latent variables, internet use, is more complicated among internet users, thus a clean unidimensional construct was hard to establish. Two solutions were tried out. First, the single internet measure was parceled into two by grouping functionally similar items: entertainment use (instant messaging and online gaming) and informational use (email, news reading, and bulletin board use). Second, error terms of functionally similar items under internet use were allowed to be related to one another. In particular, the relationship between the error terms of two entertainment oriented items, instant messaging and online gaming were allowed to be freely estimated; and the relationships among the error terms of three informational oriented items, email, news reading, and bulletin board post reading were allowed to be freely estimated. The former solution resulted in a worse fit, and the second solution seems to improve the fit moderately. Finally, the latter solution was adopted and the model achieved a mediocre fit: 2 ¼ 1628.26, df ¼ 218, p < .001, CFI ¼ .87, RMSEA ¼ .04. Results for the netizen-only model were tabulated in Table 2 (the netizen-only model columns). Despite the unsatisfactory model fit, in general, most of the results from the full sample model were replicated. But, some expected minor variations in regression coefficients were observed. Some estimates were attenuated while others were amplified. These are unsurprising since they are largely caused by the fact that non-users had zeros assigned to them for internet use, network size, and online expression. However, the most notable difference is that internet-use frequency is no longer significantly related to internet efficacy in the user-only model. Among internet users, heavy users do not necessarily possess higher internet efficacy than less frequent internet users. Thus, the indirect effect from internet use to opinion expression, for internet users, is not mediated by internet efficacy. Overall, the data provide some evidence to support the idea that internet use promotes online expression directly and indirectly through network size. Although internet efficacy is significantly associated with opinion expression, it is not related to internet use.

CONCLUSIONS AND DISCUSSIO N Against the backdrop of the rapid spread of the internet in Mainland China, this study examines the impact of internet use on online opinion expression by analyzing three cross-sectional datasets collected by WIP in 2003, 2005, and


467

2007. The contributions of this study lie on several planes. Foremost, given the fact that few empirical studies have documented the impacts of internet use in China at an individual level, this study attempts to fill this void by examining online expression, a strand of liberating force which could breed social changes potentially. Second, while acknowledging the repressive nature of the state power, this study suggests the incremental structural change brought to society by the internet through expanding users’ social network could cultivate an active online opinion expression environment. The technology people communicate with has critical implications for the distribution of social power (Carey, 1989, 1991; Innis, 2007). Third, it adds evidence to the proposition that opinion expression, a key variable in the spiral of silence theory, is related to efficacy and social network size. Several tentative conclusions could be derived from this study. First, online expression in China is not prevalent and equal across different demographic groups. Only a tenth of the internet users are active content contributors in online forums while the majority ‘‘remains silence’’. Females and people with lower education level dominate discourse production in most online forums. In addition, the results reveal a positive direct relationship between internet use and online opinion expression. The more people use the internet, the more likely they are going to post information, opinions, and responses online. This positive association, according to our data, is partially mediated by online network size, but not necessarily by internet efficacy. Internet efficacy has nothing to do with internet use in China. What substantial meanings can be extracted out of the conclusions? If anything, it should be first mentioned that most results from the current study are largely in line with the existing literature from western societies: (i) network size relates to participatory behavior (McLeod et al., 1999; Scheufele et al., 2006) and friendliness of opinion climates promotes opinion expression (Kim, Wyatt, & Katz, 1999); (ii) internet use leads to larger online network size (Katz et al., 2001; Parks & Floyd, 1996); and (iii) efficacy is related to participatory behavior (Burns et al., 2001; Verba & Nie, 1972), in particular to opinion expression (Lasorsa, 1991; Neuwirth & Frederick, 2004). These regularities seem to be quite universal, traveling beyond geographical, cultural, and social boundaries. Nonetheless, a noteworthy exception is that frequent users are not more efficacious than less frequent users. It seems very possible that the nonsignificant relationship between internet use and internet efficacy implies the psychological consequence induced by state censorship. The launch of the Great Firewall, together with the intricate laws, regulations, and policies serving the purpose of internet censorship in China, has the potential to suffocate the sour notes behind the symphony of the ‘‘harmonious society’’ that the Chinese government is managing to orchestrate. News stories of

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arrested individuals for disseminating ‘‘illegal content’’ on the internet serve the purpose of ‘‘killing the chicken to scare the monkeys’’ (publicizing punishment for intimidating the masses), which has more psychological than practical effect on internet users (Harwit & Clark, 2001). Since efficacy is an important antecedent to opinion expression, the prevalent internet censorship in China, to some extent, has successfully stifled people’s willingness to speak out through eroding their beliefs about the power of the internet. However, this does not necessarily lead to a pessimistic conclusion. This study explored two mediators that could coordinate the translation of internet use experience to online expression: internet efficacy and online network size. Albeit internet efficacy fails to demonstrate its explanatory power connecting internet use to opinion expression due to political suppression imposed by the government, internet use is still related to opinion expression through expanding people’s social network. By linking anonymous and geographically disperse individuals together, a stronger sense of belonging could be felt, and hence individuals are more likely to acquire the audacity of speaking out and organizing collective actions. Political economy configurations should not be forgotten, but in truth the structural conduciveness of the internet should not be undervalued either. In short, internet use and online opinion expression are closely intertwined. By way of reaching this point, it is critical to ask the question who dominates internet use and online discussion, and relatedly what topics are discussed online if it is to make any social inferences out of the results of this study. It is not our intention and beyond possibility to give out an accurate prediction of the future social impact of the internet in China, but there are several pieces of evidence which can be pulled together to put in perspective the positive statistical association between internet use and online opinion expression. Ideally, if people who are using the internet are more likely to speak out, it is possible that by using their common wisdom, social injustice and government power abuse are more likely to be exposed, whereas in the past such channels are closely supervised by numerous party gatekeepers. But in reality, our results do not warrant a bold argument which links the positive association between internet use and opinion expression to an active citizenry or democratic social reforms. First, education and income are still robust and significant predictors of internet use. A large majority of internet users are concentrated in China’s prosperous cities, such as Shanghai, Beijing, and Guangzhou. Residents in these areas are the primary benefitors of China’s unprecedented economic growth. Considering that an overwhelming majority of Chinese internet users are well-off financially and highly educated, most internet users are the least likely to dissent against the government and risk their quality of life. Second, the secondary datasets also show among internet users, who


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are relatively of higher socioeconomic status, it is the users with less education who are most active content contributors in online forums. This might resonate with the irony that rather than the rising middle class popular and lower classes are promoting the bourgeois rights in China (Lee, 2002). The two points suggest the caveat that technological potential does not equate to actual use. Moreover, readers should be cautious against any misinterpretations of the study results: note that online expression was operationalized as the frequency of posting messages, opinions, and information online regardless of the type of content. Thus, the results only paint a vague picture of online expression. One might even argue that given the political pressure netizens in China are staying away from sensitive topics and are only involved in discussing trivial and mawkish topics. There is a grain of truth to this type of view. Like American voters who are not attentive to politics in most of their everyday lives (Popkin, 1991), most Chinese internet users are not political junkies either. If the cost of stepping over the bottom line set by the government tops the benefits of speaking out, rational choice theories (e.g., Downs, 1957; Becker, 1976) predict that no action will be taken. In actuality, some studies argue that the euphoria concerning the democratic functions of the internet has been misplaced in that information technology per se cannot lead to democracy, and sometimes to a closed regime with open network (Kalathil & Boas, 2003). Such view, more elaborated and sophisticated than blinded optimism, ignores the long-term effects of technology advancement. Although deliberative and explicit discussions of social and political issues online are the most desired makings of democratic social change, it does not mean that casual and sociable conversation in online forums should be rejected as irrelevant. Scheufele (2000) justifies the relevance of causal discussions to constructing a civic and democratic society with two points. First, conversation might be an important factor in building up social capital. This concurs with our result that internet use contributes to online network building and in turn to opinion expression. Second, it is reasonable to assume that casual conversations make political talk more likely. Seen in this light, the role of the internet in facilitating loosely structured networks is extremely important for collective action (Bennett, 2003). This study has several limitations, in addition to the ones discussed earlier. First, our results show that online network size is only a partial mediator and the indirect effect is smaller than the direct effect. Hence, it seems there are some mechanisms falling beneath the radar screen of this study. Identifying additional mediators that can account for a larger portion of the causal relationship might be theoretically valuable in future studies, for example political cynicism and audience evaluations of the traditional media in China, which might serve as a basis for people’s perception of the internet. Second, opinion

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expression in this study is measured by a single item regardless of content type. Future research could adopt more elaborated measurements to tap different types of online opinion expression, for instance content related to social issues, politics, relationships, entertainment, etc. Third, the study has a heavy city bias as the datasets contain city residents only. More scholarly attention should be paid to rural residents since they are the most disenfranchised and it would be theoretically valuable to examine their internet use behavior notwithstanding the low adoption rate in rural areas. Finally, opinion expression is but one dimension of how internet users actively interact with this social tool in China. To obtain a more comprehensive understanding of the internet’s impact in an authoritarian regime, other aspects such as opinion quality, users’ anticensorship strategy, and the formation of collective action through online interaction should be explored as well. In summary, the fundamental argument of this study is that the architecture of participation embedded in the internet opens a new channel for individual expression in China. In its rudimentary form, online expression involves discussions of life experience, entertainment, sports, job hunting, or other issues that are considered having little to do with democratic consequences. However, merely by extending individuals’ social network, cyberspace can set the groundwork for social change, however incremental it will be. Albeit government censorship has successfully eroded people’s beliefs about the power of the internet, the networking function of the internet could bring incremental changes to the Chinese society through constructing loosely structured networks which have crucial implications for opinion expression and civic collective actions and for the realization of a civic public domain in the long run. APPENDIX A: Sample distribution 2003

Beijing Shanghai Guangzhou Chengdu Changsha

2005

2007

Penetration rate: 6.2%



Non-user 226 142 142 120 160

Non-user 293 268 376 148 125

Non-user 236 136 65 130 59

User 366 445 442 176 139

User 300 331 211 152 191

User 306 317 174 237 134

Note: Penetration rates were obtained from CNNIC website, http://www.cnnic.cn/en/index/0O/02/ index.htm.

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APPENDIX B: Means and standard deviations of endogenous variables 2003

Informational internet use Entertainment internet use Online network size Internet efficacy Online expression

2005

2007

Mean

SD

Mean

SD

Mean

SD

3.92 3.69 7.49 3.87 3.29

0.69 0.78 14.01 0.60 1.00

2.93 3.07 8.90 3.86 3.03

0.66 0.79 18.46 0.54 1.00

3.24 2.93 5.42 3.76 3.20

0.83 0.83 12.47 0.66 1.11

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BIOGRAPHICAL NOTES Fei Shen is an assistant professor at the Department of Media and Communication, City University of Hong Kong. His research interests include public opinion, political communication, sociology of news, and new media and social change. Ning Wang is a PhD student in School of Communication, Hong Kong Baptist University. Her research interests include mediated social perceptions, public opinion, and social influences in computer-mediated communication. Zhongshi Guo is an associate professor at the School of Communication, Hong Kong Baptist University. His research interest lies mainly in news media production and audience effects.

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Liang Guo is the director of the China Internet Project at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS). His research area covers internet use, online public opinion, internet’s impact on media, communication, and politics. Address for correspondence to Fei Shen, Department of Media and Communication, City University of Hong Kong, Tat Chee Avenue, Kowloon Tong, Hong Kong. E-mail: [email protected]