Apr 20, 2016 - Ohio Mutual Insurance Group. Florida Farm Bureau Insurance Companies. Old American County Mutual Fire Ins
Auto Technology and Safety www.hldi.org Columbus, OH ● April 20, 2016 Mr. Kim Hazelbaker – Sr. V.P.
IIHS is an independent, nonprofit scientific and
educational organization dedicated to reducing the losses — deaths, injuries and property damage — from crashes on the nation’s roads.
HLDI shares this mission by analyzing insurance
data representing human and economic losses from crashes and other events related to vehicle ownership. Both organizations are wholly supported by auto insurers.
Member groups Acceptance Insurance ACE Private Risk Services Affirmative Insurance Alfa Alliance Insurance Corporation Alfa Insurance Allstate Insurance Group American Family Mutual Insurance American National Ameriprise Auto & Home Amica Mutual Insurance Company Auto Club Enterprises Auto Club Group Auto-Owners Insurance Aviva Insurance Bankers Insurance Group Bituminous Insurance Companies California Casualty Group Capital Insurance Group Chubb & Son Colorado Farm Bureau Mutual Insurance Company Concord Group Insurance Companies COUNTRY Financial CSAA Insurance Group CSE Insurance Group Direct General Corporation Erie Insurance Group Esurance Farm Bureau Financial Services Farm Bureau Insurance of Michigan Farm Bureau Mutual Insurance Company of Idaho Farmers Insurance Group of Companies Farmers Mutual Hail Insurance Company of Iowa Farmers Mutual of Nebraska Florida Farm Bureau Insurance Companies Frankenmuth Insurance Gainsco Insurance GEICO Group
The General Insurance Georgia Farm Bureau Mutual Insurance Company Goodville Mutual Casualty Company Grange Insurance Hallmark Insurance Company Hanover Insurance Group The Hartford Haulers Insurance Company, Inc. Horace Mann Insurance Companies ICW Group Imperial Fire & Casualty Insurance Company Indiana Farmers Mutual Insurance Company Infinity Property & Casualty Kemper Preferred Kentucky Farm Bureau Insurance Liberty Mutual Insurance Company Louisiana Farm Bureau Mutual Insurance Company The Main Street America Group Mercury Insurance Group MetLife Auto & Home Michigan Millers Mutual Insurance Company MiddleOak Mississippi Farm Bureau Casualty Insurance Company MMG Insurance Munich Re America Mutual of Enumclaw Insurance Company Nationwide New Jersey Manufacturers Insurance Group Nodak Mutual Insurance Company Norfolk & Dedham Group North Carolina Farm Bureau Mutual Insurance Company Northern Neck Insurance Company Ohio Mutual Insurance Group Old American County Mutual Fire Insurance Old American Indemnity Company Oregon Mutual Insurance Pekin Insurance
PEMCO Insurance Plymouth Rock Assurance Progressive Corporation The Responsive Auto Insurance Company Rockingham Group Safe Auto Insurance Safeco Insurance Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance Company SECURA Insurance Sentry Insurance Shelter Insurance Sompo Japan Insurance Company of America South Carolina Farm Bureau Mutual Insurance Company Southern Farm Bureau Casualty Insurance Company State Auto Insurance Companies State Farm Tennessee Farmers Mutual Insurance Company Texas Farm Bureau Insurance Companies Tower Group Companies The Travelers Companies United Educators USAA Utica National Insurance Group Virginia Farm Bureau Mutual Insurance West Bend Mutual Insurance Company Western National Insurance Westfield Insurance XL Group plc
Funding associations American Insurance Association National Association of Mutual Insurance Companies Property Casualty Insurers Association of America
The Big Picture
Fatalities Resident population Total Licensed Registered Property Injury crashes crashes damage drivers vehicles only crashes
32,719 314,886,749 212,159,728 255,876,822 5,687,000 1,591,000 4,066,000
www.hldi.org
Motor vehicle crash deaths and deaths per billion vehicle miles traveled 1950-2014 60,000
80
70 55,000
Motor vehicle crash deaths
50,000
60
50
45,000
40
30 40,000 20
Crash deaths per billion vehicle miles traveled
35,000
30,000
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2014 10
2000
2010
0
10.7 per billion 32,675 deaths
Crash Testing 101
www.hldi.org
IIHS crashworthiness tests
Front moderate overlap, beginning 1995
Roof strength, beginning 2009
Side impact, beginning 2003
Rear crash (whiplash mitigation), beginning 2004
Front small overlap, beginning 2012
Crash protection ratings by model year Improvements beginning in 1995 100%
Moderate overlap front
100%
Side impact
100%
80%
80%
80%
60%
60%
60%
40%
40%
40%
20%
20%
20%
0%
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
0%
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Roof strength
100%
100%
80%
80%
60%
60%
40%
40%
20%
20%
0%
Head restraints and seats
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Small overlap front poor
0%
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
0%
marginal acceptable good
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Small overlap frontal - 2012
Definition of small overlap Majority of loading outside longitudinal structures
frame rail largely undamaged www.iihs.org
Overhead video small overlap test
www.iihs.org
www.iihs.org
www.iihs.org
www.iihs.org
TOP SAFETY PICK
Requirements for 2016 TOP SAFETY PICK awards
Good rating in moderate overlap front, small overlap front, side, roof strength and head restraint tests
& Basic rating for front crash prevention
meet TOP SAFETY PICK criteria
&
Advanced or Superior rating for front crash prevention
Highway Loss Data Institute
HLDI data providers have 84% share of PPA •
21st Century Insurance
•
Liberty Mutual Insurance Company
•
Alfa Alliance Insurance Corporation
•
MetLife Auto and Home
•
Allstate Insurance Group
•
National General
•
American Family Mutual Insurance
•
Nationwide
•
American National Family of Companies
•
New Jersey Manufacturers Insurance Group
•
Amica Mutual Insurance Company
•
PEMCO Insurance
•
Auto Club Group
•
Plymouth Rock Assurance
•
Automobile Insurers Bureau of Massachusetts
•
Progressive Corporation
•
Chubb & Son
•
Rockingham Group
•
COUNTRY Financial
•
Safeco Insurance Companies
•
CSAA Insurance Group
•
SECURA Insurance
•
Erie Insurance Group
•
Sentry Insurance
•
Esurance
•
State Farm Insurance Companies
•
Farm Bureau Financial Services
•
Tennessee Farmers Mutual Insurance Company
•
Farmers Insurance Group of Companies
•
The Travelers Companies
•
Florida Farm Bureau Insurance Companies
•
USAA
•
Foremost
•
GEICO Corporation
•
The Hartford
•
Kemper Preferred
•
Kentucky Farm Bureau Insurance
Other data suppliers
Size of HLDI passenger vehicle database Number of unique VINs in files, February 2016 model year
number of vehicles
2006
15,431,997
2007
15,196,004
2008
13,482,625
2009
8,847,967
2010
10,241,031
2011
10,938,529
2012
11,974,131
2013
12,833,937
2014
12,227,336
2015
11,218,356
total
122,391,913
Coverages reported to HLDI Private Passenger Auto
• • • • • •
Collision Comprehensive Personal injury protection Medical payments Physical damage liability Bodily injury liability
Crash avoidance systems
www.hldi.org
Mercedes advertisement
www.hldi.org
Collision Avoidance Technology Acura
Adaptive headlights, Collision mitigation braking system (Forward collision warning with auto brake and Adaptive cruise control) (Blind spot warning)
Buick
Lane departure warning, Rear park assist
Infiniti
Adaptive headlights, Adaptive cruise control, Adaptive cruise control with full stop, Around view monitor, Brake assist, Lane departure warning, Lane departure prevention, Rear camera (Advance brake assist, Low speed follow, Forward collision warning with auto brake)
Mazda
Adaptive headlights, Blind spot warning, Rear camera
Mercedes Benz
Adaptive headlights, Adaptive head beam assist, Attention assist, Active blind spot assist, Blind spot warning, Distronic, DistronicPlus PreSafe brake, Lane departure warning, Night view assist, Night view assist with pedestrian protection, ParkTronic, Rear camera (Distronic Plus, Lane departure prevention, Park assist, Park guidance)
Volvo
Adaptive headlights, Blind spot warning, Park assist, Rear Camera (Adaptive cruise control, lane departure warning, Forward collision warning with auto brake) www.hldi.org
Collision avoidance research project methods
covariates
calendar year, vehicle series and model year, rated driver age, rated driver gender, rated driver marital status, rated driver risk, state, registered vehicle density
model years
2000-11
calendar years
1999-11
modeling approach
only vehicles with features included, each feature treated as a variable, model run for each coverage type for frequency and severity
www.hldi.org
Forward collision warning
www.hldi.org
Changes in physical damage claim frequency with front crash prevention systems 20% low speed
warning only
warning with autobrake
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
PDL collision Volvo City Safety
Honda Accord camera (with LDW)
Honda Accord radar (with LDW + ACC)
Mercedes
Volvo
Acura
Mercedes
Subaru (with LDW)
Volvo (with LDW)
Changes in injury claim frequency with front crash prevention systems 80%
low speed
warning only
warning with autobrake
40% 0% -40% -80% 30% 20%
bodily injury liability Volvo City Safety
Honda Accord Honda Accord (includes LDW) Touring
low speed
Mercedes
Volvo
warning only
Acura
Mercedes
Subaru
Volvo (includes LDW)
Subaru
Volvo (includes LDW)
warning with autobrake
MedPay
10%
PIP
0% -10% -20% -30%
Volvo City Safety
Honda Accord camera (with LDW)
Honda Accord radar (with LDW + ACC)
Mercedes
Volvo
Acura
Mercedes
Front crash prevention systems Change in collision claim severity
$1,500 low speed
warning only
warning with autobrake
$1,000
$500
$0
-$500
-$1,000
Volvo City Safety
Honda Honda Mercedes Accord Accord camera (with radar (with LDW) LDW & ACC)
Volvo
Acura
Mercedes
Subaru (with LDW)
Volvo (with LDW)
Honda Accord forward collision warning Camera vs. radar
available on trims other than Touring
standard on Touring trim
change in collision claim severity -$145
change in collision claim severity $522
Front crash prevention systems Change in collision overall losses
$150 low speed
warning only
warning with autobrake
$100
$50
$0
-$50
-$100
Volvo City Safety
Honda Honda Mercedes Accord Accord camera (with radar (with LDW) LDW & ACC)
Volvo
Acura
Mercedes
Subaru (with LDW)
Volvo (with LDW)
Adaptive headlights
www.hldi.org
Adaptive headlights Change in claim frequency
12% 8%
PDL
collision
4% 0%
-4% -8% -12% -16% -20%
Acura
Mazda
Mercedes
Volvo
Adaptive headlights Change in claim frequency 10%
Bodily injury liability 0% -10% -20%
Acura
Mazda
Mercedes
Volvo
0% -10% -20% -30% -40%
MedPay and PIP (1st party injuries) Acura
Mazda
Mercedes
MedPay PIP Volvo
Adaptive headlights
Change in collision claim severity
$1,000
$500
$0
-$500
-$1,000
Acura
Mazda
Mercedes
Volvo
Adaptive headlights
Change in collision overall losses
$100
$50
$0
-$50
-$100
Acura
Mazda
Mercedes
Volvo
Lane departure warning
www.hldi.org
Lane departure warning systems Change in claim frequency
40% PDL
30%
collision
20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30%
Mercedes
Buick (& Blindspot)
Honda Accord camera (& FCW)
Honda Accord radar (& FCW/ACC)
Subaru (& FCW/AEB)
Volvo (& FCW/AEB)
Lane departure warning systems Change in claim frequency 0% -20% bodily injury liability -40%
Mercedes
Buick
Mercedes
Buick (& Blindspot)
120% 80%
Honda Honda Subaru Accord Accord (w/ camera radar FCW/AEB) (w/FCW) (w/FCW & ACC) MedPay PIP
Volvo
40% 0% -40%
Honda Accord camera (& FCW)
Honda Accord radar (& FCW ACC)
Subaru (& FCW AEB)
Volvo (& FCW AEB)
Growth rates of vehicle features in the U.S. vehicle fleet
New vehicle series with electronic stability control By model year 100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
standard
2005 optional
2007
2009
not available
2011
2013
Registered vehicles with electronic stability control By calendar year 100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
standard
2005 optional
2007
2009
not available
2011
2013
Registered vehicles with available electronic stability control, actual and predicted By calendar year 100%
80%
60%
40%
predicted actual
20%
0%
1995
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
New vehicle series with front crash prevention By model year 100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
2000
2002
2004 standard
2006 optional
2008
2010
not available
2012
2014
Registered vehicles with front crash prevention By calendar year 100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
2000
2002
2004 standard
2006 optional
2008
2010
not available
2012
2014
Registered vehicles with available front crash prevention, actual and predicted By calendar year 100%
80%
60%
predicted
40%
actual 20%
0%
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Calendar year features reach 95% of registered vehicles with and without hypothetical mandate 2050 without mandate hypothetical 2016 mandate
2040
2030
2020
front crash prevention
lane departure warning
adaptive headlights
blind spot warning
rear camera*
rear parking sensors
* rear camera mandate May 1, 2018
Voluntary agreement to make AEB standard on all models by 2022
vehicle to pedestrian
vehicle to stationary vehicle
vehicle to moving vehicle
www.iihs.org
Subaru advertisement
Google’s driverless car
www.hldi.org
Source of insurance loss statistics on most car, SUV, pickup, and motorcycle models on the road
