This is the author uncorrected pre-publication version. This paper does not include the changes arising from the revision, formatting and publishing processes. The final paper that should be used (available at http://doi.org/10.1504/IJSA.2017.10007257 ) is: R. Sabatini, “Future aviation research in Australia: addressing air transport safety, efficiency and environmental sustainability”, International Journal of Sustainable Aviation, vol. 3(2), pp. 87-99, 2017. DOI: 10.1504/IJSA.2017.10007257
Future Aviation Research in Australia: Addressing Air Transport Safety, Efficiency and Environmental Sustainability Roberto Sabatini RMIT University – School of Engineering, Melbourne, VIC 3000, Australia Authors' e-mail:
[email protected]
ABSTRACT This editorial discusses the main areas of research concentration in the Australian air transport sector with a focus on the associated challenges and opportunities. The main topics include improved efficiency and capacity of airports, integrated Air Traffic Management (ATM) systems, cost-effective through-life support of new and ageing aircraft, alternative fuels and low emission technologies. Additionally, advancements in aviation safety and security are identified as a strategic area for the Australian aviation sector. Both short-term and long-term initiatives are necessary to increase the economic and environmental sustainability of the sector and are therefore being targeted by various industrial and government organisations in Australia. Keywords: aerospace research; airport systems; air traffic management; avionics; ageing aircraft; aviation security; aviation safety; composite structures; alternative fuels; biofuels; structural health management.
INTRODUCTION To ensure that the Australian aviation sector continues to play a vital role in building the national economy, the current air transport system needs to evolve both in terms of operational efficiency and cost-effectiveness, while also enhancing the levels of safety, security and environmental sustainability. The Australian aviation industry is important to the national economy and employment, contributing $32 billion to GDP (2.6%) and supporting about 312,000 jobs. A key component of the Australian aviation sector is an integrated supply chain consisting of hundreds of small and medium-sized companies with an annual turn-over of $11 billion and the employment of about 100,000 workers. The sector is under intense and growing pressure from many economic, technological and environmental factors. These include rising costs of operations and fuels; new regulations and processes to cater for innovative aircraft that are technologically more complex and have new maintenance requirements; increased air traffic both within Australia and the Asia-Pacific
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Figure 1. Australian domestic and international passenger traffic [1].
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region; capacity constraints at major airports; the need to reduce the environmental impact and achieve greater sustainability in airport and aircraft operations; and more intense global competition. Therefore, the main priority areas for the Australian aviation sector in the next few decades include increasing passenger and air cargo capacity, time-efficiency, cost-effectiveness, safety and security, and environmental sustainability. Compounding these ambitious objectives is the challenge that Australia must meet in light of rising global performance standards. Recently, the EU set unprecedented performance and environmental targets for the future aviation sector, such as that 99% of flights must depart within 15 minutes of their scheduled time; flights must arrive within 1 minute of their scheduled terminal arrival time, and greenhouse gas emissions must be halved by 2020 (relative to 2000). Adding to these demands is the variability of fuel costs, which have increased fourfold in the past ten years, threatening the profitability of both large airlines and general aviation companies. All these factors support radical advancements in airport and aircraft operations to increase efficiency and environmental sustainability, yet accounting for an estimated 5% per annum growth in passenger traffic in Australia and around 10% in the Asia-Pacific region. The trends of domestic and international passenger traffic in Australia are represented in Fig. 1.
IMPROVED AIRPORT EFFICIENCY AND CAPACITY
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Due to the rapid growth of international and domestic air transport demand in Australia [1], airports need to improve their capacity and efficiency, while fulfilling airport safety, security and environmental sustainability requirements. The yearly growth in passenger traffic at the 5 largest Australian airports is depicted in Fig. 2. 45 40 35 30
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Figure 2. Annual passenger traffic statistics of the major Australian airports [2].
The Australian airport industry has evolved considerably over the last two decades as major airlines have consolidated their business models and the Low-Cost Carriers (LCCs) have become major factors in the industry. Environmental regulations and international rules have greatly shifted emphasis and new airport technology is being introduced (e.g., infrastructure and facilities compliant with new aircraft types, satellite-based ATM, security controls, and information technology serving passengers and bags). From a broader perspective, the Asia-Pacific region is the fastest growing aviation market in the world and new airports are being developed at an impressive rate in this region [3]. For instance, China alone is planning to add more than 70 new airports in the current decade for a total of 244 airports by 2020 [4]. By 2030, China will have three international hub airports as well as more than 10 national and regional aviation hubs within 100 km [4]. Currently, there are over 2000 airports and airfields in Australia, although only around 10 per cent receive regular passenger services for financial reward, known as Regular Public Transport (RPT) services [2]. From 2009-10 to 2029-30, passenger numbers in Australia are expected to double, with Brisbane, Melbourne and Sydney airports each expected to cater for over 50 million passengers by 2029-30. Therefore, significant investment at major Australian airports (in infrastructure and facilities), and possibly to the number of airport providing RPT services to major cities, is likely required over the next two decades [2]. From a managerial perspective, the
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organizational and financing characteristics of airports are also changing very rapidly, stimulated in large part by airline deregulation and technological changes. The traditional model that places airport management in the hands of a central bureaucracy in the national government does not meet the needs of large airports in a fast-changing industry. The emerging airport business models focus on the concept of the airport authority, a corporate entity owned by government or private investors or a combination of the two, which acts as an autonomous and flexible airport operator. To reflect these technological and business changes, the techniques and models adopted in planning, designing and managing airports have to advance considerably and research is needed in Australia to tackle the following key areas: • Airside development and redevelopment: − Airside evolutions for new aircraft types and new ATM systems (aprons, fuelling systems, taxiways, holding areas/bays, runways, etc.); − Airport systems and procedures to reduce noise and gaseous emissions (APU usage, engine test areas, barriers, etc.). • Landside development and redevelopment: − Terminal building renewable energy; − Terminal building internal systems evolutions including security provisions; − Greener vehicular ground transportation systems; − Improvement of the airport ground access system and transformation of large airports into multimodal transport nodes. • Airport operations: − Management of congestion and queues (e.g, A-CDM, AMAN/DMAN coordination); − Traffic/demand peak prediction and analysis methods; − Airline/operator business models and tools. • Regulatory framework evolutions: − Ownership and management of airports; − National financing, pricing and demand management systems; − Taxation scheme evolutions (user charges, noise tax, carbon tax/offsetting, etc.); − Technology-driven evolutions; − International coordination and spinoffs.
INTEGRATED AIR TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT To cope with the steady growth of air traffic in the Asia-Pacific region, the Australian ATM system has to evolve into an integrated network where civil, military and unmanned aircraft will
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continuously and dynamically share the common airspace resources in a highly automated and collaborative decision-making environment. To meet the goals of enhanced flight safety, environmental performance, efficiency and meeting future traffic demands, the following policy directions have been identified by the Australian government [5]: robust and integrated planning; adoption of advanced technology; international harmonisation; enhanced regional aviation safety; environmental impact management. In this context, a key strategic priority for Australia is to plan, develop and implement a new ATM platform to meet the future needs of both civil and military aviation, and to enhance the ATM business competitiveness by addressing the service capability, continuity and environmental sustainability [6]. As part of the OneSKY research initiative, Airservices Australia is currently managing the delivery of systems and infrastructure, and the coordination of the necessary organisational and operational changes, including liaison with internal and external stakeholders. OneSKY also presents an opportunity to realise a level of harmonisation with Defence in the development of a joint operational concept and national solutions to replace or enhance current systems. With air traffic in the region expected to grow by more than 50 per cent in the anticipated life of the new platform, and with the introduction of new concepts to improve airspace organisation and airport operations, this upgrade will be a significant milestone in Australian aviation history. Research is therefore needed in Australia to develop a new ATM regulatory framework and new systems for dynamic airspace management, free-flight and intent-based operations. This includes innovative methods and algorithms for dynamic allocation of civil/military airspace resources and CNS+A (Communication, Navigation, Surveillance and Avionics) technologies enabling the unrestricted access of UAS to commercial airspace. New highintegrity and safety-critical systems have to be developed and deployed addressing both strategic, tactical and emergency ATM requirements. These include the following elements: • Civil/Military dual-use CNS+A technologies for network-centric ATM, with a focus on strategic/tactical airspace and Air Traffic Flow Management (ATFM). More explicitly: − Civil/Military Air Traffic Management System (CMATS); − Automated Dynamic Airspace Management (ADAM) for an optimal sharing of airspace resources between civil and military operators; − Automated ATFM systems balancing air traffic demand with capacity to ensure a safe and efficient utilization of the national airspace resources; − Multi-objective 4-Dimensional Trajectory Optimisation (MOTO-4D) software for avionics Next-Generation Flight/Mission Management Systems (NG-FMS/MMS) and ground-based ATM systems [7]; − High-integrity, high-throughput and secure data links for civil/military dual usage and System-Wide Information Management System (SWIM) development to allow a greater sharing of ATM information, such as weather, airport operational status, flight data, airspace status and restrictions.
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• CNS+A Technologies for UAS, addressing the Required Communication, Navigation and Surveillance Performance (RCP, RNP and RSP) for unrestricted access of unmanned aircraft to the commercial airspace. More explicitly: − Cooperative and Non-Cooperative Sense-and-Avoid Systems [8]; − Line-of-Sight (LOS) and Beyond-Line-of-Sight (BLOS) Communications; − Avionics-based navigation and surveillance integrity monitoring and augmentation technologies [9]; − Avionics and Ground-based Navigation and Landing Systems. • Satellite-based augmentation systems: − Satellite-Based Navigation and Communication Services; − Precision Approach and Auto-Land Systems; − Automatic Dependent Surveillance Broadcast (ADS-B) based separation systems to reduce the dependence on Primary Radar for area surveillance on major air routes and in the Terminal Area (TMA). • Airport ATM systems: − Advanced Surface Movement Guidance and Control (A-SMGC) including Runway Collision Avoidance and Alerting (RCAA) and Runway Overrun Prevention (ROP) systems; − Australian Remote Tower Systems and New Standardised Air Traffic Controller (ATCo) Positions. • Regulatory framework evolutions: − Policy-driven evolutions; − Technology-driven evolutions; − International spinoffs. Clearly, to enhance the Australian aviation industry competitiveness both at a regional and global level, it is essential to address interoperability of the Australian ATM regulatory framework (and its evolutions) with the rest of Asia-Pacific and with the European/US frameworks being defined primarily by SESAR and NextGen. From a technological perspective, interoperability is also required at various levels, including Signal-in-Space (SIS), System Level Interoperability (SLI) and Human-Machine Interface and Interaction (HMI2).
COST-EFFECTIVE THROUGH-LIFE SUPPORT OF NEW AND AGEING AIRCRAFT The civil and military aircraft industries are moving towards performance-based contracting that guarantees minimum performance levels, including operating costs (shifting risk from the customer to the manufacturer). This requires research in cost reduction for aircraft manufacturing and 6
operations through optimised maintenance (e.g., system health monitoring, through-life support) and upgrades (e.g., avionics hardware and software). Ensuring and sustaining structural and systems integrity of ageing aircraft is a major challenge facing the aviation industry. Research on the design, development, implementation and certification of technological and non-technological solutions is necessary to address the associated issues. In this regards, a multi-scale approach has to be employed, as the proper way to address the aviation sector unique and specific demands (from general aviation through to commercial airlines). Over the past ten years, airlines have diversified significantly their fleets and services, with a proliferation of long-range carriers and the expansion of middle-eastern hubs (leading to the ability to reach any destination in the world through non-stop flights). Additionally, the worldwide introduction of LCCs, which aim to keep airfares as low as possible, poses new challenges to the entire sector. Inevitably, the increasing competition from LCCs and the rising operational costs force the aviation industry to extend aircraft service life. Technology insertion of Commercial-Off-The-Shelf (COTS) components has become common practice for service life expansion. However, the introduction of COTS in aviation poses several challenges on obsolescence management and adds complexities to the configuration management and certification processes. Research is required to make technology insertion less onerous, by developing modular architectures, common interfaces, backward compatibility and harmonization methods for integrating old and new system components. Additionally, the extensive adoption of composites and lightweight hybrid materials on new generation airliners (e.g., Boeing 787 and Airbus 350 XWB utilise more than 50% of advanced fibre reinforced composites) and military aircraft also poses new challenges in terms of through-life supportability. In particular, research will need to address the cost-effective management of safety standards, including non-destructive inspection and testing of composite components for continuing airworthiness, economic composite repair processes, and training/skilling-up of aircraft maintenance workforce. To reflect these changes, the techniques and models required for aircraft through-life support have to advance and research in Australia is focussing on the following key areas: • New aircraft through-life support: − Development of rapid non-destructive inspection and testing techniques that will enable fast characterisation of structural damages and their impact on structural integrity; − New composite repair technologies using hybrid material systems and new nanotechnologies to improve adhesive bonding processes and lightening protection of composites; − Training of new generation of aviation services workforce that are capable of cost-effectively maintaining composites aircraft; − Modular architectures and civil/military aircraft data network evolutions; − Integrated Vehicle Health Management (IVHM) systems for improved logistic supportability; − COTS components repair and replacement. • Ageing aircraft service life extension: − Aircraft mid-life update; 7
− COTS components insertion; − Structural and systems integrity monitoring systems. • Regulatory framework evolutions: − Technology-driven evolutions; − International spinoffs.
ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY The global aviation industry is growing rapidly with the emergence of new LCCs and major airlines growing their fleets to meet the increasing demands of air travel. This expansion has important repercussions on the environment and significantly contributes to climate change. The aviation and aerospace industries have taken positive steps towards minimizing the effects of air transport on the environment. However, there is still a lot to be done in this direction and a number of regional and global R&D initiatives are currently ongoing. The real problem today is that the air traffic growth is much faster than we are currently developing, producing and introducing technological and operational advances targeted to reduce environmental impacts. Therefore, the overall impacts are predicted to increase as the gap between the traffic growth and the rate of environmental improvements is widening in important areas such as emission of greenhouse gases, noise around airports and contrails. This trend is unsustainable and must be reversed due to the foreseen consequences on climate, health and life quality. The huge growth of air traffic in the Asia-Pacific region and in Australia in particular is posing a major challenge in terms of environmental sustainability, as the nation is committed to attain zero growth in aviation greenhouse emissions by 2020 (despite a projected 5% yearly increase in commercial air traffic). Therefore, the future of the Australian aviation sector depends largely on policy makers being able to make this growth sustainable. Despite the relative youth of Australian airline operators and fleets, current technological advances are still largely insufficient to revert the unsustainable trends. One of the main reasons is the dependence on fossil fuels with high carbon contents. The national aviation sector will need to implement effective fuel burn reduction measures in the near term, as well as introducing affordable “drop-in” solutions that fully comply with current international standards. This is why Australia is at the forefront of research in Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF), and significant outcomes are expected from the national efforts in this domain. In the long term, a large-scale adoption of alternative aviation fuels and the introduction of new aircraft and airport technologies may be required in order to ensure the continued sustainability of the sector. In this perspective, current Research and Development (R&D) activities are addressing the following short, medium and long term efforts: • Short term R&D efforts: − Operational measures for the reduction of fuel burn, involving more efficient routing of air traffic both en route and in terminal airspace;
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− Aircraft retrofits for increased aerodynamic efficiency in older models; − Introduction of drop-in SAF blends compatible with current powerplants and fully compliant with current fuel standards. • Medium term R&D efforts: − Definition of the economic cost-risk balance associated with the scale-up of SAF production and exploitation; − Identification of the most suitable SAF feedstock for the local Australian ecosystem; − Identification of economically and environmentally viable feedstock harvesting methods, refining technologies, collection, storage and distribution chains; − Scale-up of domestic SAF production from biomass; − Definition of the required regulatory framework evolutions. • Long term R&D efforts: − Evolution of airframe systems and airport infrastructures for large-scale SAF exploitation in both the civil and military aviation sectors; − Evolution of SAF specifications, logistics and lifecycle management; − Development of synergies by extending biofuel usage to other industrial sectors; − Implementation of an economically viable local large-scale SAF feedstock production and supply chain; − Attainment of carbon-neutrality in the fuel lifecycle by interdicting petroleum-derived fuels.
ENHANCED SAFETY AND SECURITY Over the last two decades, global aviation safety and security targets have changed significantly. External factors such as the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome, the global financial crisis, and the Icelandic and Chilean volcanic eruptions have, at time, been very disruptive to the market. Additionally, terrorist attacks in the United States and elsewhere have led to significant evolutions in airport security measures [2]. In Australia, aviation safety and security provisions are designed to safeguard the national aviation operations against "acts of unlawful interference" and to prevent aircraft accidents during ground and flight operations. The Australian government is responsible for the development and implementation of a national framework of consistent aviation security and safety measures [10, 11]. In particular, the Australian Civil Aviation Safety Authority (CASA) is responsible for the safety regulations of civil aviation in Australia and for Australian aircraft operating outside Australian airspace, while the Australian Transport Safety Bureau (ATSB) is Australia’s prime agency for the independent investigation of civil aviation accidents, incidents and safety deficiencies. In line with the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) mandate, the national State Safety Program (SSP) is the aviation Safety Management System (SMS) managed by Australia and sets out the national regulations and activities aimed at improving 9
aviation safety. In other words, the SSP provides the monitoring and governance framework within which operators and service providers establish and maintain an SMS. Additionally, the primary function of ATM, safety, has been recognised by the Australian government as the number one priority with, as the result, a stable safety record was attained over the last ten years, as shown in Fig. 3 [11]. 35 30 25 20 Fatalities 15
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Figure 3. 2003-2014 commercial aircraft accidents and fatalities record.
However, the expected traffic growth, the deployment of new ATM and avionic systems, the introduction of advanced automation tools and the associated evolutions of operational procedures will all present new challenges in terms of safety, for which up-to-now we have relied mainly on voice communications between the air traffic controller and the pilot. To address these challenges, the CASA SMS framework adopts a systematic approach to managing aviation safety, including the necessary organisational, structures, accountabilities and procedures [12, 13]. Additionally, according to the Australian Department of Infrastructure and Regional Development, it is essential that the needs of security be included in every aspect of aviation planning, design and deployment, whether new ground facilities are involved or major system developments are undertaken [10]. To address the evolution of safety and security standards in association with technological advances and procedural enhancements, current research efforts extend across all components of the national aviation sector (airlines, airports, aircraft and air traffic management). The investigation includes the identification and implementation new solutions for safety and security management with a focus on the following key areas. • SMS evolutions: − Safety policy, objectives and planning; − Safety risk management;
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− Safety assurance; − Safety training and promotion. • Safety enhancements: − Aircraft safety targets and airworthiness provisions; − Airport safety targets and safety provisions; − ATM safety targets and safety provisions. • Security enhancements: − Airport security evolution (security checkpoints, gates, waiting areas and transit areas; security systems for baggage screening and reconciliation; systems for passenger screening); − Aircraft security evolutions (aircrew/flight deck, passengers, systems security threats); − ATM security evolutions (ATCo, CNS/ATM systems and network security threats). • Regulatory framework evolutions: − Policy-driven evolutions; − Technology-driven evolutions; − International spinoffs.
CONCLUSIONS This editorial overviewed the current areas of research concentration in the Australian aviation sector and discussed the associated challenges and opportunities. These areas include improved efficiency and capacity of airports, integrated Air Traffic Management (ATM) systems and technologies, cost-effective through-life support of new and ageing aircraft, alternative fuels and low emission technologies, and enhanced aviation safety and security. Although significant uncertainties affect the economic and political contexts at a global and regional level, the Australian research community is engaged in both short and long-term initiatives for a more efficient, safer and environmentally sustainable aviation.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The author gratefully acknowledges the contributions provided by the academic staff of the School of Engineering participating to the Future Aviation research efforts. Special thanks go to the members and industrial partners of the Sir L. Wackett Aerospace Centre, the Intelligent Transport and Mission Systems Research Group, and the Aviation Systems and Human Factors Program.
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[7] A. Gardi, R. Sabatini, and S. Ramasamy, "Multi-objective optimisation of aircraft flight trajectories in the ATM and avionics context", Progress in Aerospace Sciences, vol. 83, 2016. [8] S. Ramasamy, R. Sabatini, A. Gardi, and J. Liu, "LIDAR obstacle warning and avoidance system for unmanned aerial vehicle sense-and-avoid", Aerospace Science and Technology, vol. 55, pp. 344-358, 2016. [9] R. Sabatini, T. Moore, and C. Hill, "Avionics-based integrity augmentation system for mission- and safety-critical GNSS applications", 25th International Technical Meeting of the Satellite Division of the Institute of Navigation 2012, ION GNSS 2012, Nashville, TN, 2012, pp. 743-763. [10] Aus. Dept. of Inf. and Reg. Dev., "Aviation Security, downloadable from: http://www.infrastructure.gov.au/transport/security/aviation/index.aspx", Department of Infrastructure and Regional Development, Australian Government [11] Aus. Dept. of Inf. and Reg. Dev., "Aviation Safety Regulation Review, downloadable from: http://www.infrastructure.gov.au/aviation/asrr/index.aspx", Department of Infrastructure and Regional Development, Australian Government [12] CASA, "Safety Management Systems for Regular Public Transport Operations, downloadable from: http://www.casa.gov.au/wcmswr/assets/main/download/caaps/ops/sms-1.pdf", Australian Civil Aviation Safety Authority (CASA) CAAP SMS-1(0) [13] ICAO, "Safety Management Manual", International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) Doc. 9859 AN/460, 2013.
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