Jun 12, 2018 - 0.000029. 0.2. 998,999,495. 41. 50. (20) 82.3%. 64.5%. 41. (12.9) (19.2) (34.2) 17.8%. TRON. TRX. $0.05.
For the week ended on June 11 Updated as of June 11 at 8 pm ET
6/12/2018
Ken
150 East 52nd St, 31st floor | New York, NY 10022
XuanAC
For inquiries, contact Sales at 212-293-7140 or via email
[email protected].
CRYPTO CURRENCY STRATEGY
Benchmark Crypto Indices Weekly Performance Analysis FS CryptoFX 10
FS CryptoFX 40
FS CryptoFX 250
FS CryptoFX 300
FS CryptoFX Agg
FS FX Eq Weight
Large-cap
Mid-cap
Small-cap
Top 300
All-cap
Top 50
-9.7%
-13.5%
-17.3%
-10.5%
-10.5%
-13.8%
Commodities
Platforms
Exchanges
Privacy
Stable Coins
-8.9%
-11.7%
-14.2%
-3.3%
-0.0%
Crypto Currency Strategy
Portfolio Strategy
Technical Strategy
Thomas J. Lee, CFA AC Thomas J. Lee, CFA AC Robert Sluymer, CFAAC Robert Sluymer, CFAAC Head of Research Head of Technical Strategy
[email protected] [email protected] Sam Doctor AC twitter: @Fundstrat twitter: @rsluymer Ken Xuan AC Alex Kern For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see Disclosures, Slide 40.
Quantitative Strategy
Washington & Policy Strategy
Sam Doctor AC
L. Thomas Block
Head of Data Science Research
[email protected] twitter: @fundstratQuant
Policy Strategist
[email protected] twitter: @TomBlock_FS
www.Fundstrat.com | Bloomberg: FSGA
The Fundstrat Research Team Thomas J. Lee, CFA Co-Founder, Head of Research In research: 25 years Prior to founding Fundstrat, Mr. Lee was at J.P. Morgan from 1999 to 2014 and served as Chief Equity Strategist from 2007 to 2014. He was topranked by Institutional Investor every year since 1998. Previously served as Managing Director at Salomon Smith Barney. Mr. Lee graduated from the undergraduate program at the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania.
Rob Sluymer, CFA
Sam Doctor Head of Data Science Research In research: 18 years Head of Data Science Research. Former US Small and Mid Cap Technology Analyst and India Small / Mid Cap Strategist at J.P. Morgan Chase.
L. Thomas Block
Head of Technical Analysis Strategy In research: 26 years
Washington and Policy Strategist Head of JPM policy: 21 years
Head of Technical Research with over 26 years experience writing technical research at RBC Capital Markets
Tom had a 21-year career at J.P. Morgan, serving as Global Head of Government Relations. Prior to joining JP Morgan Chase in 1987, he previously worked in Washington and held several positions with members of the House and Senate, serving as Legislative Assistant and Chief of Staff in the House, and Legislative Staff Director in the Senate
Ken Xuan
Alex Kern
Quantitative Analyst In research: 4 years
Research Analyst In research: 3 years
Data scientist with expertise in applied mathematics and statistical analysis. Ken was an operations strategy consultant at West Monroe Partners. Ken received a B.S. degree in Management, Economics from Purdue University in 2013 and an M.S. degree in Operations Research from Columbia University in 2017.
Previously conducted blockchain technology research with Digital Currency Group. Prior to that, Alex was a Fintech and Payments Equity Research Associate with Cowen & Co. Alex received his B.A. in History from the University of Pennsylvania in 2014.
Source: Fundstrat, Bloomberg, Factset
Slide 2
Executive Summary • Overview • SIZE: FS Large-cap 10, FS Mid-cap 40, FS small-cap 250 • SECTOR: Commodities • SECTOR: Platforms • SECTOR: Exchanges • SECTOR: Privacy
• SECTOR: Stable coins
For exclusive use of Fundstrat clients
Slide 3
Overview: Where to find these indices Figure: The Fundstrat Crypto-currency Indices Fundstrat reference indices. Market Value
Index
Index Price
Description
Tickers
$ % share millions crypto
Bloomberg
Yahoo! Finance
Trading View
Financial Times
FSTOKCTB
^FSTOKCTB *
FSTOKCTB *
^FSTOKCTB
FSTOKPLT
^FSTOKPLT
FSTOKPLT
^FSTOKPLT
FSTOKPVT
^FSTOKPVT
FSTOKPVT
^FSTOKPVT
FSTOKDEX
^FSTOKDEX
FSTOKDEX
^FSTOKDEX
FSTOKSTB
^FSTOKSTB
FSTOKSTB
^FSTOKSTB
84%
FSTOK10
^FSTOK10
FSTOK10
^FSTOK10
Sector Indices FS Crypto Commodity
Likely to be classified as commodities
FS Crypto Platform
Enables decentralized applications
FS Crypto Privacy
Tokens with anonymity features
FS Crypto Exchange FS Crypto Stablecoin
$101 $190,557
58%
131 $111,605
34%
84
$10,779
3%
Tokens associated with exchanges
138
$2,913
1%
Tracks the fiat currencies
100
$2,312
1%
Market-Cap based Indices FS Crypto 10
Top 10 largest Crypto-currencies
$169 $274,045
FS Crypto 40
Top 11-50 based on market value
175
$33,374
10%
FSTOK40
^FSTOK40
FSTOK40
^FSTOK40
FS Crypto 50 Eq Wt
Equal weighted FS Crypto 10 and 40
198 $307,419
94%
FSTOKEQW
^FSTOKEQW
FSTOKEQW
^FSTOKEQW
FS Crypto 250
Top 51-300 based on market cap
157
$13,448
4%
FSTOK250
^FSTOK250
FSTOK250
^FSTOK250
FS Crypto 300
FS Crypto 10, 40 and 250
168 $324,294
99%
FSTOK300
^FSTOK300
FSTOK300
^FSTOK300
FS Crypto Aggregate
Aggregate index
168 $325,968
100%
FSTOKAGG
^FSTOKAGG
FSTOKAGG
^FSTOKAGG
* FS Crypto Commodity Index (FSTOKCTB Index) should shortly be available on Yahoo! Finance and Trading View.
For exclusive use of Fundstrat clients
Slide 4
Overview
Relative Performance
Figure: The Fundstrat Crypto-currency Indices Fundstrat reference indices.
7D Performance (%)
30D Performance (%) 1.3 2.0
S&P 500 (0.5)
Dollar Idx
Over the past 7 days, the FS CryptoFX Agg Index decreased by 10.5%, compared with a 1.3% increase for the S&P 500.
MSCI All World Idx (0.1)
BBG US Agg Bond Idx Salient Risk Parity Idx BBG Commodity TR Idx
(0.3) (0.0)
BBG US Treasury Idx Gold
(1.4)
Bitcoin
(9.7)
(21.4)
(13.5)
(29.3)
(17.3)
(33.7)
FS CryptoFX Commodity
(8.9)
(21.5)
FS CryptoFX Platform FS CryptoFX Privacy
(10.5)
(22.9)
FS CryptoFX 10
FS CryptoFX 250
(10.1)
(22.3)
FS CryptoFX Agg
0.4 0.7
(8.1)
(18.8)
Ethereum
0.3
2.1
(6.5)
FS CryptoFX 40
The best performing sector index was FS CryptoFX Stablecoin, which was down 0.0%.
0.1
(1.0) (1.7)
Oil
The best performing size-based index was FS CryptoFX 10, which was down 9.7%.
1.2 0.8 0.3
(11.7)
(24.0) (30.5)
FS CryptoFX Exchange FS CryptoFX Stablecoin * Base date of Cap based Indices is 9/30/17 and Sector Indices is 3/31/18
For exclusive use of Fundstrat clients
(14.2) (11.5)
(3.3) (0.0) (0.0)
Slide 5
At a Glance
State of Indices Bitcoin
Composite Technical Score
FS Privacy FS 40
FS EQW
FS 250
45
46
47
6
5
FS AGG
-16
-14
-12
49
FS Privacy
P/50D
FS 250 65%
FS Platform
FS EQW
FS 40
FS AGG
70%
50
51
75%
Weekly RSI
FS 250 37
39
41
FS 300
53
54
FS Privacy FS Ex change
FS Stable Coin
FS 10 -6
FS Commodity Bitcoin
FS Commodity
52
Bitcoin
-8
FS 10 FS 300 80%
FS Privacy
35
FS AGG
-10
FS Stable Coin
FS 10 FS EQW
48
FS 40 FS EQW
3
Bitcoin
FS PlatformFS Commodity FS 250
4
FS Ex change
FS Platform
FS 300
FS Stable Coin
FS 10
7
FS Commodity
Bitcoin FS Ex change
FS 300
8
FS 40
Upside less downside Volatility
FS Commodity FS AGG
9
FS Privacy
44
Sector-based Indices
FS Platform
10
Win-ratio
Size-based Indices
-4
-2
FS Ex change
85%
90%
FS Platform
FS 10 FS 40 FS EQW FS 300 FS AGG 43
2
FS Stable Coin
95%
100%
Bitcoin
45
0
105%
FS Stable Coin
47
49
FS Ex change
51
53
Source: Coinmarketcap.com, Bloomberg, other sources and Fundstrat.
For exclusive use of Fundstrat clients
Slide 6
At a Glance
State of Indices Technical Metrics Composite Price (USD)
Technical Price (BTC) Rank
90D
Relative Relative
Win 90D Price to Price to Weekly 5D 10D 30D 21 vs 50 Ratio UV - DV 21 DMA 50 DMA RSI Return Return Return DMA
Name
Symbol
FS Stable Coin
FSTOKSTB
$100.00
0.014478
1
53
1 100.0% 100.1%
51
(0.0)
(0.0)
FS Exchange
FSTOKDEX
$137.52
0.019910
2
50
(0)
97.9%
90.9%
52
(14.2)
(3.6)
(11.5)
7.1%
Bitcoin
BTC
$6,906.92
1.000000
3
52
(3)
92.3%
82.6%
46
(9.8)
(8.4)
(18.8)
9.7%
FS 10
FSTOK10
$170.33
0.024661
4
49
(6)
91.7%
80.7%
44
(11.5)
(8.1)
(21.4)
11.0%
FS Commodity
FSTOKCTB
$101.84
0.014745
5
48
(8)
92.0%
81.2%
43
(10.6)
(8.1)
(21.5)
10.7%
FS 300
FSTOK300
$169.35
0.024518
6
48
(8)
90.9%
79.1%
43
(12.2)
(9.4)
(22.9)
11.8%
FS AGG
FSTOKAGG
$169.70
0.024569
7
48
(8)
90.9%
79.1%
43
(12.2)
(9.4)
(22.9)
11.8%
FS Platform
FSTOKPLT
$130.95
0.018959
8
48
(8)
90.3%
78.4%
45
(13.5)
(10.4)
(24.0)
11.9%
FS EQW
FSTOKEQW
$200.61
0.029045
9
49
(10)
87.0%
71.1%
43
(15.6)
(13.5)
(30.3)
16.0%
FS 40
FSTOK40
$174.75
0.025301
10
47
(10)
87.7%
71.7%
42
(15.1)
(14.6)
(29.3)
16.0%
FS Privacy
FSTOKPVT
$84.02
0.012164
11
44
(0)
84.9%
68.6%
38
(14.6)
(14.7)
(30.5)
16.4%
FS 250
FSTOK250
$158.84
0.022997
12
48
(14)
83.0%
68.9%
42
(18.5)
(19.0)
(33.7)
14.2%
(0.0) (0.1% )
Source: Coinmarketcap.com, Bloomberg, other sources and Fundstrat.
For exclusive use of Fundstrat clients
Slide 7
At a Glance Correlation
Bitcoin is most correlated to the size index, FS 10 with a 90D correlation of 97.2%. In the past week, the largest change in correlation was FS 40 (+0.6%).
Figure: 90D Rolling Correlation – Bitcoin vs Size indices and vs Sector indices Over last 100 days
100%
FS Crypto Size Indices FS 10
90%
In the past week, the largest change in correlation was FS Stablecoin (+20.5%).
92.8% 90.6%
80%
FS 40 FS 250 FS EQ WT
70%
FS Agg 60% 100%
Bitcoin is most correlated to the sector index, FS Commodity with a 90D correlation of 99.0%.
97.2% 97.0% 93.1%
FS Crypto Sector Indices FS Commodity
80%
99.0% 92.2% 88.9% 81.2%
60% 40%
FS Platform FS Privacy
20%
FS Exchange FS Stablecoin
6.8% 0% (20%)
Source: Coinmarketcap.com, Bloomberg, other sources and Fundstrat.
For exclusive use of Fundstrat clients
Slide 8
At a Glance
State of Tokens 1 of 2
Technical Metrics Composite Current Technical Coin Supply Score
Name
Symbol
Price Market (USD) Price (BTC) Cap ($B)
Binance Coin
BNB
$15.38
0.002227
3.0
194,972,068
DigiByte
DGB
$0.03
0.000005
0.3
10,324,177,197
Siacoin
SC
$0.01
0.000002
0.5
34,755,691,770
Ripple
XRP
$0.60
0.000087
60.4
99,992,233,977
Nxt
NXT
$0.13
0.000019
0.1
998,999,942
OmiseGO
OMG
$9.99
0.001446
1.4
140,245,398
EOS
EOS
$11.59
0.001678
10.4
900,000,000
ReddCoin
RDD
$0.01
0.000001
0.2
28,808,713,174
Dogecoin
DOGE
$0.00
0.000000
0.4 114,657,296,497
Bitcoin
BTC
$6,906.92
1.000000
117.9
17,064,837
Bitcoin Cash
BCH
$958.56
0.138783
16.4
17,156,638
VeChain
VEN
$3.41
0.000494
3.0
873,378,637
Ethereum
ETH
$533.28
0.077210
53.2
99,768,318
Litecoin
LTC
$107.52
0.015567
6.1
56,764,648
Waves
WAVES
$3.89
0.000563
0.4
100,000,000
Stellar
XLM
$0.26
0.000037
IOTA
MIOTA
$1.45
0.000210
4.0
2,779,530,283
Power Ledger
POWR
$0.29
0.000041
0.3
1,000,000,000
Waltonchain
WTC
$9.93
0.001438
0.7
70,000,000
Qtum
QTUM
$11.98
0.001734
1.2
100,633,816
BitShares
BTS
$0.18
0.000026
0.5
2,629,060,000
Bytom
BTM
$0.53
0.000077
0.8
1,407,000,000
Augur
REP
$33.51
0.004852
0.4
11,000,000
NEM
XEM
$0.22
0.000032
2.0
8,999,999,999
Cardano
ADA
$0.18
0.000026
5.6
31,112,483,745
26.7 103,986,155,722
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
90D Relative Relative Win 90D Price to Price to Weekly 5D 10D 30D 21 vs 50 Ratio UV - DV 21 DMA 50 DMA RSI Return Return Return DMA
51
31 108.5% 109.5%
62
(10.8)
8.0
18.9
(1.0% )
53
2
96.9%
85.3%
51
(4.4)
(2.1)
(18.6)
11.6%
50
52
91.5%
70.6%
49
(12.5)
(5.8)
(30.6)
20.9%
48
17
95.8%
83.3%
48
(10.5)
(3.1)
(13.3)
12.5%
44
12
95.0%
75.2%
45
(6.9)
(2.0)
(24.9)
19.8%
47
10
92.6%
73.6%
48
(9.8)
(7.6)
(27.1)
19.0%
50
99
90.1%
79.2%
60
(16.9)
(5.8)
(18.7)
10.9%
46
26
90.8%
75.5%
50
(15.0)
(5.1)
(21.5)
15.3%
48
11
92.0%
74.7%
47
(14.6)
(5.5)
(27.7)
17.3%
52
(3)
92.3%
82.6%
46
(9.8)
(8.4)
(18.8)
9.7%
48
21
91.5%
75.6%
49
(15.3)
(4.4)
(34.9)
15.9%
46
12
92.4%
80.9%
53
(17.6)
(1.2)
(25.1)
11.5%
48
(6)
91.3%
81.2%
49
(12.2)
(8.1)
(22.3)
10.1%
51
(12)
90.4%
78.4%
45
(11.3)
(10.3)
(24.2)
12.0%
48
(6)
89.9%
70.3%
45
(10.0)
(6.5)
(37.5)
19.5%
43
15
90.1%
75.5%
50
(14.0)
(11.6)
(28.7)
14.6%
47
28
89.6%
77.5%
50
(14.7)
(24.9)
(23.7)
12.1%
49
8
87.5%
67.0%
50
(15.6)
(13.1)
(31.0)
20.5%
51
(8)
89.3%
77.0%
49
(23.0)
(11.3)
(23.5)
12.3%
43
82
88.7%
70.1%
43
(12.8)
(17.2)
(27.0)
18.5%
51
16
86.3%
69.6%
48
(18.9)
(14.2)
(27.1)
16.7%
46
65
85.0%
71.2%
55
(17.2)
(16.2)
(16.0)
13.7%
50
14
87.0%
77.3%
48
(12.1)
(14.8)
(35.7)
9.8%
48
(10)
88.6%
68.9%
42
(11.2)
(12.5)
(33.0)
19.7%
44
61
87.6%
68.8%
49
(16.0)
(18.5)
(33.1)
18.8%
For exclusive use of Fundstrat clients
Slide 9
At a Glance
State of Tokens 2 of 2
Technical Metrics
Price Market (USD) Price (BTC) Cap ($B)
Composite Current Technical Coin Supply Score
Name
Symbol
0x
ZRX
$1.07
0.000155
1.1
1,000,000,000
Basic Attenti
BAT
$0.23
0.000034
0.4
1,500,000,000
Zcash
ZEC
$206.48
0.029895
0.8
4,031,606
Dash
DASH
$271.81
0.039353
2.2
8,100,204
Status
SNT
$0.08
0.000012
0.6
6,804,870,174
Verge
XVG
$0.03
0.000005
0.5
14,997,869,020
QASH
QASH
$0.42
0.000061
0.4
1,000,000,000
$12.92
0.001871
1.3
101,929,340
$2.17
0.000314
0.9
400,228,740
Ethereum Classic ETC ICON
ICX
DigixDAO
DGD
$123.72
0.017912
0.2
2,000,000
Monero
XMR
$138.04
0.019986
2.2
16,083,586
NEO
NEO
$45.60
0.006602
4.6
100,000,000
Lisk
LSK
$7.26
0.001051
0.9
121,695,940
Bitcoin Gold
BTG
$37.21
0.005387
0.6
17,136,861
Storm
STORM
$0.03
0.000004
0.3
10,000,000,000
Ardor
ARDR
$0.20
0.000029
0.2
998,999,495
TRON
TRX
$0.05
0.000007
4.9 100,000,000,000
aelf
ELF
$0.79
0.000115
0.2
280,000,000
Hshare
HSR
$6.04
0.000874
0.3
43,049,264
Cindicator
CND
$0.05
0.000007
0.1
2,000,000,005
Steem
STEEM
$1.87
0.000271
0.5
275,215,728
Nano
NANO
$3.23
0.000468
0.4
133,248,289
Neblio
NEBL
$5.75
0.000832
0.1
13,913,547
Gas
GAS
$15.37
0.002225
0.3
17,190,378
Stratis
STRAT
$3.51
0.000508
0.3
98,876,181
26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
90D Relative Relative Win 90D Price to Price to Weekly 5D 10D 30D 21 vs 50 Ratio UV - DV 21 DMA 50 DMA RSI Return Return Return DMA
50
8
86.5%
79.4%
56
(19.5)
(14.4)
(35.2)
7.1%
53
15
84.2%
65.6%
47
(13.6)
(16.1)
(35.8)
18.7%
50
21
82.2%
73.7%
45
(12.5)
(14.3)
(15.9)
8.5%
47
8
86.2%
68.9%
40
(13.6)
(13.8)
(32.8)
17.3%
46
17
85.8%
66.5%
45
(14.6)
(18.2)
(34.2)
19.3%
48
44
82.8%
58.5%
45
(16.5)
(16.1)
(44.6)
24.3%
44
38
84.9%
67.1%
46
(16.7)
(16.9)
(32.3)
17.9%
48
(3)
85.4%
71.2%
43
(15.3)
(16.8)
(28.8)
14.2%
47
33
82.9%
62.2%
50
(18.7)
(20.2)
(44.9)
20.7%
47
(17)
85.3%
62.0%
46
(22.2)
(7.3)
(35.6)
23.2%
44
(0)
86.0%
68.6%
43
(16.1)
(12.4)
(31.6)
17.5%
40
11
86.5%
70.3%
44
(15.4)
(17.8)
(29.6)
16.2%
47
14
82.9%
68.7%
43
(18.1)
(16.1)
(28.5)
14.1%
41
5
84.6%
64.2%
44
(17.2)
(15.2)
(34.8)
20.4%
43
447
78.3%
55.6%
50
(22.1)
(23.2)
(39.1)
22.7%
50
(20)
82.3%
64.5%
41
(12.9)
(19.2)
(34.2)
17.8%
44
52
78.1%
68.4%
52
(17.8)
(16.8)
(29.0)
9.7%
49
67
78.4%
61.9%
51
(22.2)
(25.9)
(39.5)
16.4%
46
44
82.8%
64.8%
42
(19.0)
(24.2)
(36.2)
18.0%
46
(3)
81.4%
60.6%
45
(18.2)
(22.0)
(38.2)
20.8%
46
68
76.9%
61.0%
46
(22.7)
(21.8)
(33.9)
15.8%
41
(5)
79.9%
54.6%
43
(18.6)
(20.8)
(49.0)
25.3%
43
18
74.9%
52.6%
46
(23.2)
(25.1)
(52.4)
22.3%
44
1
80.6%
63.5%
45
(23.0)
(24.8)
(39.6)
17.1%
49
(19)
77.7%
61.1%
43
(20.9)
(20.0)
(42.0)
16.6%
For exclusive use of Fundstrat clients
Slide 10
Overview
Performance Quilt Here we look at the relative performance of our benchmark indices using a performance quilt. The best performing was FS CryptoFX Stable Coin Index which was down 0.0%. In the prior week, this index returned 0.0%. The worst performing was FS CryptoFX 250 Index, which was down 17.3%. In the prior week, this index returned 8.9%.
Figure: Crypto Performance Quilt Past 8 weeks 4/16/18 to 4/23/18
4/23/18 to 4/30/18
4/30/18 to 5/7/18
5/7/18 to 5/14/18
5/14/18 to 5/21/18
5/21/18 to 5/28/18
5/28/18 to 6/4/18
FS Privacy 46.5%
FS Exchange 19.0%
FS 250 26.7%
FS Platform 15.6%
FS Eq Wt 25.7%
FS 40 13.9%
FS 40 25.6%
FS Exchange 11.4%
FS Platform 25.4%
FS Eq Wt 11.3%
FS Platform 7.0%
FS 300 10.9%
FS Agg 22.5%
FS Platform 9.5%
FS Exchange 4.8%
FS Agg 10.9%
FS 300 22.4%
FS 250 5.0%
FS 10 4.6%
FS 10 10.7%
FS 10 21.7%
FS 10 4.8%
FS Commodity 4.3%
FS Stable Coin 0.3%
FS Exchange 21.1%
FS 300 4.6%
FS Agg 3.8%
FS 250 -2.6%
FS Stable Coin 0.0%
FS Commodity 18.3%
FS Agg 4.5%
FS 300 3.8%
FS Privacy -5.5%
FS Exchange -0.2%
BTC 10.8%
BTC 3.5%
BTC 1.4%
BTC -7.0%
FS Stable Coin 0.0%
FS 40 2.8%
FS 40 0.6%
FS Commodity 1.5%
6/4/18 to 6/11/18
FS Eq Wt 12.0%
FS 250 8.9% FS Commodity 7.4%
FS Stable Coin 0.0%
FS Stable Coin 0.0%
FS Privacy 6.3%
FS Exchange -3.3%
BTC -3.4%
BTC -15.2%
BTC 5.3%
BTC -8.1%
FS Commodity -8.0%
FS 10 -5.1%
FS Commodity -17.1%
FS Stable Coin 0.0%
FS Commodity -8.9%
FS Stable Coin -0.2%
FS Exchange -8.1%
FS Commodity -5.1%
FS 10 -19.7%
FS 10 -9.7%
FS Stable Coin 0.1%
FS Eq Wt -0.7%
FS Platform -8.1%
FS Agg -5.7%
FS Agg -20.7%
FS 300 -10.5%
FS Privacy -11.4%
FS 250 -1.1%
FS Agg -8.2%
FS 300 -5.8%
FS 300 -20.7%
FS Agg -10.5%
FS Privacy -5.7%
FS 300 -8.2%
FS Platform -6.0%
FS Exchange -22.3%
FS Platform -11.7%
FS 10 -8.3%
FS Privacy -7.5%
FS Privacy -24.0%
FS 40 -13.5%
FS 40 -10.6%
FS Eq Wt -7.6%
FS Platform -24.5%
FS Eq Wt -13.8%
FS Eq Wt -11.8%
FS 40 -8.7%
FS 250 -25.1%
FS Privacy -14.2%
FS 250 -10.3%
FS Eq Wt -25.6%
FS 250 -17.3%
FS 40 -25.7%
Source: Fundstrat, Bloomberg.
For exclusive use of Fundstrat clients
Slide 11
SIZE
Indices vs BTC
Figure: Size-based Indices Price Ratio to BTC Past 6M
FS Crypto 10 (large-cap) vs BTC
The 6M price performance of the size-weighted indices are plotted. Over the past week, the best performing of the size indices was FS CryptoFX 10 which was down 2.5%. The worst performing over that timeframe was FS CryptoFX 250 which was down 11.2%. Over the past month, the best performing of the size indices was FS CryptoFX 10 which was down 2.2%. The worst performing over that timeframe was FS CryptoFX 250 which was down 19.0%.
3M rel BTC
1M rel BTC
1W rel BTC
+2.8%
-2.2%
-2.5%
3M rel BTC
1M rel BTC
1W rel BTC
-9.9%
-13.5%
-8.2%
3M rel BTC
1M rel BTC
1W rel BTC
-4.3%
-19.0%
-11.2%
FS Crypto 40 (mid-cap) vs BTC
FS Crypto 250 (small-cap) vs BTC
Source: Fundstrat, Bloomberg.
For exclusive use of Fundstrat clients
Slide 12
Size Rotation Size Pairs
Figure: Size Pairs Price Ratio Past 6M
Mid-cap vs Large-cap FS Crypto 40 / FS Crypto 10
Over the past week, relative performance of mid-cap vs large-cap was down 5.9%.
Over the past week, relative performance of small-cap vs large-cap was down 9.0%.
Over the past week, relative performance of small-cap vs mid-cap was down 3.3%.
3M %Delta
1M %Delta
1W %Delta
-12.4%
-11.6%
-5.9%
3M %Delta
1M %Delta
1W %Delta
-6.9%
-17.2%
-9.0%
3M %Delta
1M %Delta
1W %Delta
+6.3%
-6.4%
-3.3%
Small-cap vs Large-cap FS Crypto 250 / FS Crypto 10
Small-cap vs Mid-cap FS Crypto 250 / FS Crypto 40
Source: Fundstrat, Bloomberg.
For exclusive use of Fundstrat clients
Slide 13
Sectors
Sectors vs BTC
Figure: Sector Price Ratio to BTC Past 6M
Commodities vs BTC
The 6M price performance of the sector indices are plotted. Over the past week, the best performing of the sector indices was FS Exchange Index which was up 5.2%. The worst performing over that timeframe was FS Privacy Index which was down 6.6%. Over the past month, the best performing of the sector indices was FS Exchange Index which was up 9.0%. The worst performing over that timeframe was FS Privacy Index which was down 14.4%.
3M rel BTC
1M rel BTC
1W rel BTC
+0.4%
-3.4%
-0.9%
3M rel BTC
1M rel BTC
1W rel BTC
+7.8%
-6.4%
-4.0%
3M rel BTC
1M rel BTC
1W rel BTC
-24.7%
-14.4%
-6.6%
3M rel BTC
1M rel BTC
1W rel BTC
+80.1%
+9.0%
+5.2%
Platforms vs BTC
Privacy vs BTC
Exchanges vs BTC
Source: Fundstrat, Bloomberg.
For exclusive use of Fundstrat clients
Slide 14
Sector Rotation Sector Pairs
Figure: Sector Pairs Price Ratio Past 6M
Platforms vs Commodities
Over the past week, relative performance of Platforms vs Commodities was down 3.1%.
Over the past week, relative performance of Platforms vs Exchanges was down 8.7%.
Over the past week, relative performance of Privacy vs Commodities was down 5.7%.
3M %Delta
1M %Delta
1W %Delta
+7.3%
-3.1%
-3.1%
3M %Delta
1M %Delta
1W %Delta
-40.2%
-14.1%
-8.7%
3M %Delta
1M %Delta
1W %Delta
-25.0%
-11.4%
-5.7%
Platforms vs Exchanges
Privacy vs Commodities
Source: Fundstrat, Bloomberg.
For exclusive use of Fundstrat clients
Slide 15
Cross Asset Classes Correlation Matrix Figure: FS Crypto FX Indices Correlation Matrix against Major Asset Classes (%) Based on the daily return of last 90 days
Bitcoin
Bitcoin FS CryptoFX 10 FS CryptoFX 40 FS CryptoFX 250 FS CryptoFX 300
100
FS FS FS FS FS FS FS FS FS FS FS MSCI All US Agg CryptoFX CryptoFX CryptoFX CryptoFX CryptoFX CryptoFX CryptoFX CryptoFX CryptoFX CryptoFX CryptoFX US Dollar World Bond 10 40 250 300 Agg Eq Wt Commodity Platform Privacy Exchange Stablecoin S&P 500 Index Index Index
97 100
93 96 100
91 94 95 100
97 100 97 95 100
FS CryptoFX Agg FS CryptoFX Eq Wt FS CryptoFX Commodity FS CryptoFX Platform FS CryptoFX Privacy FS CryptoFX Exchange FS CryptoFX Stablecoin S&P 500 US Dollar Index
97 100 97 95 100 100
93 97 99 96 98 98 100
99 99 95 92 98 98 95 100
92 98 96 94 98 98 97 94 100
89 91 93 90 92 92 92 92 88 100
81 82 83 84 83 83 85 81 81 77 100
7 6 10 11 7 7 9 6 7 4 24 100
(15) (13) (17) (16) (14) (14) (16) (13) (12) (12) (19) 8 100
3 2 6 (2) 2 2 3 5 (1) 12 (8) 10 3 100
MSCI All World Index US Agg Bond Index Risk Parity Index Comdty TR Index US Treasury Index Gold
(10) (8) (11) (9) (8) (8) (10) (9) (7) (9) (16) 9 92 (0) 100
(9) (8) (6) (1) (8) (8) (6) (10) (5) (17) (4) (1) (33) (6) (30) 100
Risk Parity Index
(16) (14) (16) (11) (14) (14) (13) (16) (11) (15) (14) 11 60 (9) 70 14 100
US Comdty Treasury TR Index Index
(7) (6) (5) (3) (6) (6) (4) (6) (3) 4 5 8 29 (30) 24 (14) 51 100
(9) (8) (6) (2) (8) (8) (6) (10) (5) (16) (2) (2) (39) (5) (38) 99 7 (15) 100
Gold
Oil
(1) 1 0 7 2 2 5 (2) 6 (8) 21 3 (23) (68) (19) 30 9 28 31 100
1 2 2 5 2 2 3 3 1 10 10 4 23 (25) 17 (29) 23 72 (29) 20 100
Oil
Source: Coinmarketcap.com, Bloomberg, other sources and Fundstrat.
For exclusive use of Fundstrat clients
Slide 16
Cross Token Correlation Matrix Figure: Correlation Matrix (%)
Bytom Verge DigixDAO Steem Stratis Waves Siacoin BitShares Dogecoin Status Augur 0x Waltonchain Hshare Ardor QASH Basic Attenti DigiByte Gas Storm aelf ReddCoin
The 3 tokens with lowest overall correlation (to other tokens) are: Storm @ 20.7% overall; Verge @ 45.0% overall; and Bytom @ 46.8% overall.
62 64 57 55 57 35 50 52 49 39 54 50 56 49 55 41 60 46 50 56 58 51 59 43 40 39 100
Nxt Power Ledger Neblio
66 66 60 53 65 44 57 65 59 48 60 64 65 62 55 46 68 41 59 62 61 55 66 45 36 40 47 50 67 64 60 53 61 58 47 100
75 76 73 73 77 53 64 77 74 45 66 74 75 71 73 59 74 59 66 70 66 70 79 64 51 39 48 50 74 77 70 65 70 68 48 62 100
82 79 73 63 73 63 75 70 69 54 75 70 73 68 75 67 70 56 70 78 59 72 68 65 49 38 55 55 67 74 61 67 66 69 48 58 66 100
69 68 72 69 65 44 64 77 67 55 64 76 76 72 66 59 72 45 60 69 65 68 72 65 48 41 49 51 74 71 59 65 69 66 49 61 66 54 63 54 100
79 77 76 71 77 56 68 84 75 56 71 77 78 83 76 65 73 56 63 77 72 71 76 65 48 50 48 61 82 79 81 72 78 73 50 65 79 71 71 58 69 100
82 82 78 76 81 56 72 79 87 56 79 78 82 79 84 75 77 53 68 77 76 79 86 65 50 46 52 51 81 83 71 78 76 76 56 67 79 70 71 69 68 75 100
30 25 17 24 29 20 13 15 20 24 20 25 32 11 16 10 15 42 45 19 16 19 21 25 24 6 20 11 21 18 9 26 20 10 16 10 28 24 10 40 21 13 21 100
60 63 60 53 56 48 67 60 62 51 52 55 58 61 57 56 64 39 53 57 57 56 59 47 51 53 46 43 64 69 53 65 61 61 38 50 53 54 57 55 58 61 62 12 100
75 77 77 68 73 53 69 79 77 53 72 74 78 82 79 73 79 52 63 74 71 74 76 68 47 45 46 59 80 82 71 71 80 76 53 58 74 68 74 58 75 82 79 11 63 100
82 78 79 69 78 53 73 83 79 57 76 75 78 85 80 70 76 52 64 79 76 75 79 64 51 51 56 55 81 80 73 83 77 76 48 62 74 73 75 61 73 85 79 18 65 81 100
81 78 78 67 75 58 75 80 77 53 71 72 80 82 78 73 77 54 69 78 74 78 74 71 44 48 55 61 79 79 69 76 76 80 52 65 72 74 80 69 70 78 76 16 61 81 80 100
69 67 61 64 69 46 53 62 65 51 58 65 70 62 62 49 63 52 63 67 68 62 69 56 56 37 53 37 68 70 59 71 61 54 49 52 65 59 50 66 55 58 73 56 57 59 67 59 100
Cindicator
Source: Coinmarketcap.com, Bloomberg, other sources and Fundstrat.
For exclusive use of Fundstrat clients
Slide 17
Cindicator
71 69 65 54 66 59 60 64 73 51 54 64 67 61 61 53 63 55 71 62 63 63 68 53 43 37 50 41 71 66 50 70 61 62 44 56 58 63 53 100
Neblio
71 72 74 66 71 47 68 71 70 37 65 68 68 76 72 68 66 40 56 64 67 70 71 59 42 46 48 62 73 72 62 66 68 76 44 51 68 65 100
Power Ledger
60 65 56 56 57 33 46 49 51 45 51 58 63 55 55 48 52 46 62 55 58 52 60 48 30 33 42 37 47 58 49 55 57 47 100
Nxt
80 77 87 69 77 63 85 84 83 45 72 73 74 84 77 81 76 48 63 76 71 80 76 63 48 53 48 62 82 77 67 74 68 100
ReddCoin
75 76 73 66 71 49 65 77 72 45 74 70 77 73 70 63 67 44 63 74 68 69 75 63 46 41 50 52 72 72 70 71 100
aelf
77 74 78 70 74 60 68 79 81 63 69 71 74 77 76 71 76 53 62 72 73 73 77 63 52 45 56 48 76 78 62 100
Storm
70 67 65 63 68 38 59 75 67 51 67 65 70 76 71 58 62 50 60 75 66 66 73 55 43 56 50 50 72 70 100
Gas
82 84 79 73 80 57 77 80 79 57 74 74 78 83 79 71 84 61 67 79 81 79 84 66 52 53 59 54 83 100
DigiByte
82 80 82 74 82 59 75 86 83 62 70 78 81 82 78 71 79 54 70 77 79 82 82 70 50 48 51 65 100
Basic Attenti
64 58 63 50 56 41 65 59 57 42 54 60 60 64 54 53 61 37 51 60 61 55 53 55 40 43 35 100
Hshare
53 52 51 43 53 19 52 45 48 34 44 43 47 57 47 40 51 44 41 57 65 49 57 40 31 100
Waltonchain
49 51 52 54 47 41 46 47 50 44 50 54 52 46 50 44 51 41 47 51 43 55 46 50 100
0x
76 75 72 66 74 39 60 68 66 48 68 75 81 69 69 57 71 53 63 71 64 73 71 100
DigixDAO
Bitcoin Gold
Lisk
OmiseGO
ICON
85 86 80 77 83 46 69 82 83 54 80 77 81 81 79 63 80 55 65 80 81 77 100
QASH
Zcash
82 83 88 85 81 60 80 77 79 57 75 79 80 78 84 78 72 53 68 79 75 100
Ardor
Nano
80 78 77 73 83 43 67 73 77 53 67 76 80 79 78 61 77 52 60 77 100
Augur
Bitcoin Gold
86 82 80 69 80 55 79 79 77 60 75 76 79 81 79 70 77 55 68 100
Status
Lisk
73 72 65 64 71 54 70 65 65 47 62 65 73 63 67 57 63 56 100
Dogecoin
ICON OmiseGO
64 59 49 49 57 38 44 53 48 48 46 54 57 51 53 40 60 100
BitShares
VeChain Binance Coin
83 83 79 72 80 49 70 78 79 54 71 76 80 79 71 61 100
Siacoin
Ethereum Classic Qtum
72 68 79 62 70 68 80 73 79 54 65 65 66 73 84 100
Waves
NEM
84 81 83 77 82 61 74 79 82 57 74 78 80 81 100
Binance Coin
82 83 84 71 82 50 76 85 84 57 74 79 81 100
VeChain
87 84 81 82 86 47 72 82 82 58 79 87 100
Stratis
84 80 84 80 81 50 71 80 79 56 73 100
Qtum
81 79 77 71 73 38 72 75 76 46 100
Ethereum Classic
60 54 52 54 54 49 48 54 57 100
Monero
Stellar
Cardano
EOS
Litecoin
Bitcoin Cash
Ripple
NEO
83 80 84 73 81 63 77 84 100
Steem
Dash
82 77 82 73 79 53 80 100
Verge
Monero
78 75 82 65 72 60 100
Bytom
TRON IOTA
53 53 64 48 53 100
Zcash
NEO
88 90 85 80 100
Nano
Stellar
77 80 78 100
NEM
EOS Cardano
86 88 100
Dash
Bitcoin Cash Litecoin
90 100
IOTA
Ripple
100
TRON
Bitcoin Ethereum
Ethereum
Bitcoin
Based on the daily return of last 90 days
76 79 78 71 78 52 65 74 73 52 75 74 76 75 74 65 75 57 63 72 79 74 77 64 59 53 56 52 74 79 67 78 72 71 53 62 68 66 65 63 66 78 78 21 62 74 81 72 66 100
Executive Summary • Overview • SIZE: FS Large-cap 10, FS Mid-cap 40, FS small-cap 250 • SECTOR: Commodities • SECTOR: Platforms • SECTOR: Exchanges • SECTOR: Privacy
• SECTOR: Stable coins
For exclusive use of Fundstrat clients
Slide 18
Large-cap
Figure: FS CryptoFX 10 Price Ratio to BTC Past 6M
FS CryptoFX 10
Large-cap vs BTC
The FS CryptoFX 10 index is designed to track the performance of the top 10 largest and most liquid Crypto-currencies.
Over the past week, the FS CryptoFX 10 index was down 2.5% Relative to BTC. Over the past month, this index was down 2.2% Relative to BTC.
3M rel BTC
1M rel BTC
1W rel BTC
+2.8%
-2.2%
-2.5%
Daily RSI
MACD
The two best performing constituents this index in the past week are Bitcoin down 8.1% and Ripple down 8.7%.
Correlation to BTC
The two worst performing constituents this index in the past week are TRON down 17.5% and Cardano down 15.3%
Best Rank Token 7D chg % weight
Worst 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Bitcoin
Ripple
Ethereum
Litecoin
Stellar
(8%)
(9%)
(10%)
(10%)
(12%)
Bitcoin Cash
EOS
NEO
Cardano
TRON
(13%)
(14%)
(15%)
(15%)
49%
9%
22%
3%
2%
(17%)
7%
4%
1%
2%
2%
Source: Fundstrat, Bloomberg.
For exclusive use of Fundstrat clients
Slide 19
Correlation
FS CryptoFX 10
Figure: 90D Rolling Correlation - FS CryptoFX 10 Correlation against Major Asset Classes Over last 100 days
The FS CryptoFX 10 index is designed to track the performance of the top 10 largest and most liquid Crypto-currencies.
The FS CryptoFX 10 Index is most correlated to Oil with a 90D correlation of 2.0%.
FS CryptoFX 10
S&P 500 BBG US Agg Bond Idx Oil Gold Salient Risk Parity Idx
30%
15%
0%
2.0% 1.4%
(8.4% )
The FS CryptoFX 10 Index is least correlated to Salient Risk Parity Index with a 90D correlation of -13.5%.
(15%)
(13.1% ) (13.5% )
(30%)
Source: Coinmarketcap.com, Bloomberg, other sources and Fundstrat.
For exclusive use of Fundstrat clients
Slide 20
Mid-cap
Figure: FS CryptoFX 40 Price Ratio to BTC Past 6M
FS CryptoFX 40
Mid-cap vs BTC
The FS CryptoFX 40 index is designed to track the performance of the top 11-50 Crypto-currencies based on market value and liquidity.
Over the past week, the FS CryptoFX 40 index was down 8.2% Relative to BTC. Over the past month, this index was down 13.5% Relative to BTC. The two best performing constituents this index in the past week are Binance Coin up 7.9% and DigiByte down 0.7%. The two worst performing constituents this index in the past week are DigixDAO down 26.9% and aelf down 23.7%
3M rel BTC
1M rel BTC
1W rel BTC
-9.9%
-13.5%
-8.2%
Daily RSI
MACD
Correlation to BTC
Best 1
2
3
4
5
Binance Coin
DigiByte
Siacoin
Waves
8% 5%
(1%) 1%
(4%) 2%
(6%) 1%
31
32
33
Hshare
BitShares
(20%)
(20%)
1%
2%
3%
10 Best Token 7D chg % weight
6
7
8
9
10
ReddCoin
Nxt
Dogecoin
Waltonchain
OmiseGO
NEM
(6%) 1%
(8%) 0%
(8%) 1%
(9%) 1%
(10%) 3%
(11%) 7%
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
Lisk
Cindicator
Steem
Gas
Storm
Neblio
aelf
DigixDAO
(20%)
(20%)
(20%)
(21%)
(23%)
(23%)
(24%)
(27%)
0%
2%
1%
0%
0%
1%
1%
Worst
10 Worst Token 7D chg % weight
Source: Fundstrat, Bloomberg.
For exclusive use of Fundstrat clients
Slide 21
Correlation
FS CryptoFX 40
Figure: 90D Rolling Correlation - FS CryptoFX 40 Correlation against Major Asset Classes Over last 100 days
The FS CryptoFX 40 index is designed to track the performance of the top 11-50 Crypto-currencies based on market value and liquidity.
The FS CryptoFX 40 Index is most correlated to Oil with a 90D correlation of 1.5%.
FS CryptoFX 40
S&P 500 BBG US Agg Bond Idx Oil Gold Salient Risk Parity Idx
30%
15%
1.5% 0%
0.4% (6.4% )
The FS CryptoFX 40 Index is least correlated to S&P 500 with a 90D correlation of 17.0%.
(15%)
(16.1% ) (17.0% )
(30%)
Source: Coinmarketcap.com, Bloomberg, other sources and Fundstrat.
For exclusive use of Fundstrat clients
Slide 22
Small-cap
Figure: FS CryptoFX 250 Price Ratio to BTC
FS CryptoFX 250
Past 6M
Small-cap vs BTC
The FS CryptoFX 250 index is designed to track the performance of the top 51-300 Crypto-currencies based on market value and liquidity.
Over the past week, the FS CryptoFX 250 index was down 11.2% Relative to BTC. Over the past month, this index was down 19.0% Relative to BTC.
3M rel BTC
1M rel BTC
1W rel BTC
-4.3%
-19.0%
-11.2%
Daily RSI
MACD
Correlation to BTC
The two best performing constituents this index in the past week are Linda up 38.5% and GameCredits up 19.8%.
10 Best
The two worst performing constituents this index in the past week are MonaCoin down 9.7% and Enjin Coin down 9.7%
Token 7D chg % weight
10 Worst Token 7D chg % weight
Best 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Linda
GameCredits
Blackmoon
Pura
bitUSD
Wagerr
Primalbase Token
Mooncoin
PotCoin
bitCNY
39% 0%
20% 0%
19% 0%
17% 0%
17% 0%
15% 0%
14% 0%
13% 0%
13% 0%
11% 0%
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
Byteball Bytes
Aeternity
Dynamic
RevolutionVR
Ethos
Incent
Cryptonex
Diamond
Enjin Coin
MonaCoin
(7%) 1%
(7%) 4%
(8%) 0%
(8%) 0%
(8%) 1%
(9%) 0%
(9%) 1%
(9%) 0%
(10%) 0%
(10%) 1%
Worst
Source: Fundstrat, Bloomberg.
For exclusive use of Fundstrat clients
Slide 23
Correlation
Figure: 90D Rolling Correlation - FS CryptoFX 250 Correlation against Major Asset Classes
FS CryptoFX 250
Over last 100 days
The FS CryptoFX 250 index is designed to track the performance of the top 51-300 Crypto-currencies based on market value and liquidity.
The FS CryptoFX 250 Index is most correlated to Gold with a 90D correlation of 6.8%.
FS CryptoFX 250
S&P 500 BBG US Agg Bond Idx Oil Gold Salient Risk Parity Idx
30%
15%
6.8% 4.7%
0%
(0.9% )
(11.0% )
The FS CryptoFX 250 Index is least correlated to S&P 500 with a 90D correlation of -16.1%.
(15%)
(16.1% )
(30%)
Source: Coinmarketcap.com, Bloomberg, other sources and Fundstrat.
For exclusive use of Fundstrat clients
Slide 24
Executive Summary • Overview • SIZE: FS Large-cap 10, FS Mid-cap 40, FS small-cap 250 • SECTOR: Commodities • SECTOR: Platforms • SECTOR: Exchanges • SECTOR: Privacy
• SECTOR: Stable coins
For exclusive use of Fundstrat clients
Slide 25
Sectors
Figure: FS Crypto Sector Price Ratio to BTC Past 6M
Commodity
Commodities vs BTC
The FS CryptoFX Commodity index is designed to track the performance of the tokens which are viewed purely as digital currencies and/or commodities.
Over the past week, the FS CryptoFX Commodity index was down 0.9% Relative to BTC. Over the past month, this index was down 3.4% Relative to BTC.
3M rel BTC
1M rel BTC
1W rel BTC
+0.4%
-3.4%
-0.9%
Advance/Decline line
Daily RSI
The two best performing constituents this index in the past week are Bitcoin down 8.1% and Litecoin down 10.3%.
Best
The two worst performing constituents this index in the past week are Monero down 13.8% and Bitcoin Cash down 13.3%
Worst
Rank Past 1 week… Token 7D chg % weight
1
2
3
4
5
Bitcoin (8%) 82%
Litecoin (10%) 4%
Zcash (13%) 1%
Bitcoin Cash (13%) 11%
Monero (14%) 2%
Past 2 weeks… Token
Bitcoin Cash
Bitcoin
Litecoin
Monero
Zcash
7% 11%
(3%) 82%
(4%) 4%
(8%) 2%
(10%) 1%
14D chg % weight Source: Fundstrat, Bloomberg.
For exclusive use of Fundstrat clients
Slide 26
Correlation
FS Commodity
Figure: 90D Rolling Correlation - Commodity Correlation against Major Asset Classes Over last 100 days
The FS CryptoFX Commodity index is designed to track the performance of the tokens which are viewed purely as digital currencies and/or commodities.
The FS Commodity Index is most correlated to Oil with a 90D correlation of 3.3%.
FS CryptoFX Commodity Index
S&P 500 BBG US Agg Bond Idx Oil Gold Salient Risk Parity Idx
30%
15%
3.3% 0% (2.3% )
The FS Commodity Index is least correlated to Salient Risk Parity Index with a 90D correlation of -16.0%.
(10.2% ) (13.4% ) (15%)
(16.0% )
(30%)
Source: Coinmarketcap.com, Bloomberg, other sources and Fundstrat.
For exclusive use of Fundstrat clients
Slide 27
Executive Summary • Overview • SIZE: FS Large-cap 10, FS Mid-cap 40, FS small-cap 250 • SECTOR: Commodities • SECTOR: Platforms • SECTOR: Exchanges • SECTOR: Privacy
• SECTOR: Stable coins
For exclusive use of Fundstrat clients
Slide 28
Sectors
Figure: FS Crypto Platforms Price Ratio to BTC Past 6M
Platforms
Platforms vs BTC
The FS Crypto Platform index is designed to track the performance of cryptocurrencies which enable developers to create and use decentralized applications (dApps).
Over the past week, the FS CryptoFX Platform index was down 4.0% Relative to BTC. Over the past month, this index was down 6.4% Relative to BTC. The two best performing constituents this index in the past week are Waves down 5.6% and Ethereum down 10.1%.
3M rel BTC
1M rel BTC
1W rel BTC
+7.8%
-6.4%
-4.0%
Advance/Decline line
Daily RSI
Best Rank
Worst 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Token
Waves
Ethereum
NEM
Stellar
VeChain
Qtum
EOS
NEO
7D chg
(6%)
(10%)
(11%)
(12%)
(12%)
(13%)
(14%)
(15%)
% weight
0%
47%
2%
23%
3%
1%
9%
VeChain
IOTA
Cardano
Ethereum
Stellar
Waves
14D chg
10%
7%
4%
3%
1%
% weight
3%
4%
5%
47%
23%
9
10
11
12
13
14
Classic
Cardano
IOTA
Bytom
Stratis
Lisk
(15%)
(15%)
(16%)
(18%)
(19%)
(20%)
4%
1%
5%
4%
1%
0%
1%
EOS
NEM
Qtum
NEO
Lisk
Classic
Bytom
Stratis
0%
(0%)
(2%)
(3%)
(6%)
(9%)
(10%)
(13%)
(14%)
0%
9%
2%
1%
4%
1%
1%
1%
0%
Past 1 week… Ethereum
The two worst performing constituents this index in the past week are Stratis down 14.0% and Bytom down 13.2%
Past 2 weeks… Ethereum Token
Source: Fundstrat, Bloomberg.
For exclusive use of Fundstrat clients
Slide 29
Correlation
FS Platform
Figure: 90D Rolling Correlation - FS Crypto Platform Correlation against Major Asset Classes Over last 100 days
FS CryptoFX Platform Index
The FS Crypto Platform index is designed to track the performance of cryptocurrencies which enable developers to create and use decentralized applications (dApps).
The FS Platform Index is most correlated to Gold with a 90D correlation of 5.5%.
S&P 500 BBG US Agg Bond Idx Oil Gold Salient Risk Parity Idx
30%
15%
5.5% 0%
0.6%
(5.2% )
The FS Platform Index is least correlated to S&P 500 with a 90D correlation of 12.3%.
(10.6% ) (12.3% ) (15%)
(30%)
Source: Coinmarketcap.com, Bloomberg, other sources and Fundstrat.
For exclusive use of Fundstrat clients
Slide 30
Executive Summary • Overview • SIZE: FS Large-cap 10, FS Mid-cap 40, FS small-cap 250 • SECTOR: Commodities • SECTOR: Platforms • SECTOR: Exchanges • SECTOR: Privacy
• SECTOR: Stable coins
For exclusive use of Fundstrat clients
Slide 31
Sectors
Figure: FS Crypto Exchanges Price Ratio to BTC Past 6M
Exchanges
Exchanges vs BTC
The FS Crypto Exchange index is designed to track the performance of cryptocurrencies/ tokens associated with crypto centralized or decentralized exchanges.
Over the past week, the FS CryptoFX Exchange index was up 5.2% Relative to BTC. Over the past month, this index was up 9.0% Relative to BTC.
3M rel BTC
1M rel BTC
1W rel BTC
+80.1%
+9.0%
+5.2%
Advance/Decline line
The two best performing constituents this index in the past week are Binance Coin up 7.9% and Bancor down 12.9%. The two worst performing constituents this index in the past week are AirSwap down 27.6% and Kyber Network down 20.7%
Daily RSI
Best
Worst
Rank Past 1 week… Token 7D chg % weight
1
2
3
4
5
6
Binance Coin 8% 59%
Bancor (13%) 5%
0x (14%) 21%
QASH (17%) 8%
Kyber Network (21%) 5%
AirSwap (28%) 2%
Past 2 weeks… Token 14D chg % weight
Binance Coin 29% 59%
Bancor 4% 5%
0x 3% 21%
Kyber Network (2%) 5%
QASH (11%) 8%
AirSwap (17%) 2%
Source: Fundstrat, Bloomberg.
For exclusive use of Fundstrat clients
Slide 32
Correlation
FS Exchange
Figure: 90D Rolling Correlation - FS Crypto Exchange Correlation against Major Asset Classes Over last 100 days
FS CryptoFX Exchange Index
The FS Crypto Exchange index is designed to track the performance of cryptocurrencies/ tokens associated with crypto centralized or decentralized exchanges.
The FS Exchange Index is most correlated to Gold with a 90D correlation of 20.7%.
S&P 500 BBG US Agg Bond Idx Oil Gold Salient Risk Parity Idx
30%
20.7% 15%
9.8%
0% (3.9% )
The FS Exchange Index is least correlated to S&P 500 with a 90D correlation of 19.1%.
(15%)
(13.7% ) (19.1% )
(30%)
Source: Coinmarketcap.com, Bloomberg, other sources and Fundstrat.
For exclusive use of Fundstrat clients
Slide 33
Executive Summary • Overview • SIZE: FS Large-cap 10, FS Mid-cap 40, FS small-cap 250 • SECTOR: Commodities • SECTOR: Platforms • SECTOR: Exchanges • SECTOR: Privacy
• SECTOR: Stable coins
For exclusive use of Fundstrat clients
Slide 34
Sectors
Figure: FS Crypto Privacy Price Ratio to BTC Past 6M
Privacy
Privacy vs BTC
The FS Crypto Privacy index is designed to track the performance of cryptocurrencies with anonymity or privacy features.
Over the past week, the FS CryptoFX Privacy index was down 6.6% Relative to BTC. Over the past month, this index was down 14.4% Relative to BTC. The two best performing constituents this index in the past week are Zcash down 12.7% and Monero down 13.8%.
3M rel BTC
1M rel BTC
1W rel BTC
-24.7%
-14.4%
-6.6%
Advance/Decline line
Daily RSI
Best
The two worst performing constituents this index in the past week are Bitcoin Private down 18.8% and Dash down 14.2%
Worst
Rank Past 1 week… Token 7D chg % weight
1
2
3
4
Zcash (13%) 15%
Monero (14%) 40%
Dash (14%) 39%
Bitcoin Private (19%) 6%
Past 2 weeks… Token 14D chg % weight
Dash (6%) 39%
Monero (8%) 40%
Zcash (10%) 15%
Bitcoin Private (26%) 6%
Source: Fundstrat, Bloomberg.
For exclusive use of Fundstrat clients
Slide 35
Correlation
FS Privacy The FS Crypto Privacy index is designed to track the performance of cryptocurrencies with anonymity or privacy features.
The FS Privacy Index is most correlated to Oil with a 90D correlation of 9.6%.
Figure: 90D Rolling Correlation - FS Crypto Privacy Correlation against Major Asset Classes Over last 100 days
FS CryptoFX Privacy Index
40%
Oil Gold Salient Risk Parity Idx
25%
10%
(5%)
(20%)
The FS Privacy Index is least correlated to BBG US Agg Bond Index with a 90D correlation of -16.8%.
S&P 500 BBG US Agg Bond Idx
9.6%
(7.9% ) (12.3% ) (15.0% ) (16.8% )
(35%)
(50%)
Source: Coinmarketcap.com, Bloomberg, other sources and Fundstrat.
For exclusive use of Fundstrat clients
Slide 36
Executive Summary • Overview • SIZE: FS Large-cap 10, FS Mid-cap 40, FS small-cap 250 • SECTOR: Commodities • SECTOR: Platforms • SECTOR: Exchanges • SECTOR: Privacy
• SECTOR: Stable coins
For exclusive use of Fundstrat clients
Slide 37
Sectors
Stable Coins
Figure: FS Crypto Stable Price Ratio to BTC Past 6M
Privacy vs BTC
The FS CryptoFX Stable index is designed to track the performance of cryptocurrencies which are designed to be “stable”.
3M rel BTC
1M rel BTC
1W rel BTC
+33.1%
+23.1%
+8.8%
Advance/Decline line
Over the past week, the FS CryptoFX Stable Coin index was up 8.8% Relative to BTC. Over the past month, this index was up 23.1% Relative to BTC.
Daily RSI
Rank
1
2
Tether 0% 98%
DAI (0%) 2%
Token
DAI
Tether
14D chg % weight
1% 2%
0% 98%
Past 1 week… Token 7D chg % weight
In the past week, Tether was down 0.0% and DAI was down 0.2%, in dollar terms.
Past 2 weeks…
Source: Fundstrat, Bloomberg.
For exclusive use of Fundstrat clients
Slide 38
Correlation
FS Stable Coin
Figure: 90D Rolling Correlation - FS Crypto Stable Correlation against Major Asset Classes Over last 100 days
FS CryptoFX Stable Coin Index
The FS CryptoFX Stable index is designed to track the performance of cryptocurrencies which are designed to be “stable”.
The FS Stable Coin Index is most correlated to Salient Risk Parity Index with a 90D correlation of 11.5%.
S&P 500 BBG US Agg Bond Idx Oil Gold Salient Risk Parity Idx
30%
15%
11.5% 7.5%
0%
4.2% 3.0% (1.3% )
(15%)
The FS Stable Coin Index is least correlated to BBG US Agg Bond Index with a 90D correlation of -1.3%.
(30%)
Source: Coinmarketcap.com, Bloomberg, other sources and Fundstrat.
For exclusive use of Fundstrat clients
Slide 39
Disclosures This research is for the clients of Fundstrat Global Advisors only. For important disclosures and rating histories regarding sectors or companies that are the subject of this report, please contact your sales representative or Fundstrat Global Advisors at 150 East 52nd Street, New York, NY, 10022 USA.
Analyst Certification (Reg AC) Ken Xuan, the research analyst denoted by an “AC” on the cover of this report, hereby certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his personal views, which have not been influenced by considerations of the firm’s business or client relationships. Neither I, nor a member of my household is an officer, director, or advisory board member of the issuer(s) or has another significant affiliation with the issuer(s) that is/are the subject of this research report. There is a possibility that we will from time to time have long or short positions in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research Conflicts of Interest This research contains the views, opinions and recommendations of Fundstrat. As of the time of writing and publication of this presentation, Fundstrat does not know of, or have reason to know of any material conflicts of interest at the time of the publication of this presentation. The Company has no contractual relationship, nor have we received any compensation from any of the companies listed in this research report. Analyst Industry/Sector Views Positive (+): The analyst expects the performance of his industry/sector coverage universe over the next 6-18 months to be attractive vs. the relevant broad market benchmark, being the S&P 500 for North America. Neutral (N): The analyst expects the performance of his or her industry/sector coverage universe over the next 6-18 months to be in line with the relevant broad market benchmark, being the S&P 500 for North America. Negative (-): The analyst expects his or her industry coverage universe over the next 6-18 months to underperform vs. the relevant broad market benchmark, being the S&P 500 for North America. 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Version: 4/27/18
Slide 40