BMKG - WMO

BMKG

Badai Tropis “DURGA”

Badai Tropis “ROSIE”

Kuala Lumpur, 20 – 24 April 2009 1

Outline of the Presentation BMKG

¾ New Institutions dealing with Climate Change ¾Strategy in linking up national and international policies on Climate Change Badai Tropis “DURGA”


¾ BMKG activities to support national Action Plan on Adaptation and Mitigation for Energy sector ¾Climate information for energy and water resource sectors ¾ How Climate information contribute to the planning and operational stage of Energy sector 2

NEW INSTITUTIONS DEALING WITH CLIMATE CHANGE BMKG

¾ Minstr Responsible for Cl. Change Issues Æ New Zealand – Dec. 2005 ¾ Minstr of Transport Infrastructure and Cl. Change Æ Scotland – May 2007 ¾ Minstr of Cl. Change and Water Æ Australia – Dec. 2007 Badai Tropis “DURGA”


¾ Secr of State for Energy and Cl. Change Æ United Kingdom – Jan. 2008 ¾ Minstr Climate and Energy Æ Belgium – March 2008 ¾ Minstr for Climate and Energy Æ Denmark – Sept. 2008 ¾ Minstr of Meteorological Services and Cl. Change Æ Niue – 2008 ¾ The Agency for Meteorology Climatology and Geophysics (BMKG) Æ Indonesia – Nov. 2008 3

STRATEGY IN LINGKING UP NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL POLICIES ON CLIMATE CHANGE WMO (BMKG)

BMKG DNPI

M of Env &Sector

NAP for A&M

SECTORIAL PROG/DEP.

UNEP (M of Env)

2nd WCC (1990)

1st WCC-1 (1979)

WCC-3 (2009)

UNFCCC (Policy)

IPCC(Scientific)

(....?)

BMKG COP •Convension on CC

COP 13/CMP 3 (Bali, Dec 2007)

MOP •Emision Reduction CO2-NO2-NOx-O3-etc

Physical Science Basis Impact, Adaptation and Vulnerability Mitigation of CC AR 1 – 4 31st IPCC, Bali, Oct 2009 AR 5 - 2014


INPUT


• Agriculture • Transportation • Energy • Forestry • Infrastructure • Health • Water • Coastal Area Infrastructure • Fishery

National

SBI Implementation

SBSTA (S&T)

• Capacity bldg • Education/ Training • Public Awereness • Cooperation & synergy • etc….

•Data, Systematic Observation, Monitoring

•Kyoto Protocol (1997)

•Vulnerability , Adaptation assessment

•Bali Action Plan (2007)

RESOLUTION

•Nairobi Work Program (2006) •Copenhagen (2009)

SBI: Subsidiary Body for Implementation SBSTA: Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice MOP: Meeting of the Parties CMP: COP+MOP DNPI : National Council on Climate Change

International

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“BMKG” Activities to support National Action Plan on Adaptation and Mitigation Climate Change Severe Impact for ENERGY sector

BMKG

National Action Plan/ Mitigation Adaptation of Climate Change (Ministry of Environment)

y Renewable energy utilization (wind, solar) IPCC (AR IV) & WMO Cost reduction for transmission and distribution infra structure



Underground cabelling for public usage Energy efficiency, renewable energy resources Reduce dependency to single energy source Utilization of wind and solar potency Design stage Operational stage

Universities (IPB, ITB, UI, UGM)

BMKG in Cooperation with Concerned-University & institutions ¾ Provide related weather information (wind, cloud cover, insulation, solar radiation) ¾ Provide climate information (wind direction and magnitude, solar radiation, rainfall) related to alternative energy resources ¾ Natural hazard risk area information due to extreme local weather such as tornado, high intensity rainfall . ¾ Natural hazard risk area information due to extreme climate such as low or high rainfall and increase temperature. ¾ Information of daylight lenght ¾ Thematic map of direct solar intensity frequency ¾ Thematic map of solar inclination ¾ Earthquake and tsunami risk map ¾ Thunder risk map

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“BMKG” Activities to support National Action Plan on Adaptation and Mitigation Climate Change Severe Impact for WATER RESOURCE sector

BMKG

National Action Plan/ Mitigation Adaptation of Climate Change (Ministry of Environment)

BMKG in Cooperation with Concerned-University & institutions

z Water harvest extensification

¾ Online Rainfall data from Min. of Public Work

z Water and land storage and conservation techniques

¾ Rainfall information (monthly rainfall and evaluation, monthly or annual average rainfall)

z Efficiency of water usage and irrigation z Dam operational management improvement

¾ Daily and monthly temperature and moisture information



IPCC (AR IV) & WMO Water recycle, Sea water processing.

¾ Rainy season Information (evaluation) ¾ Dry season information (evaluation) ¾ Soil water availability (for crops) ¾ Flood risk potency forecast, 3 months ahead ¾ Earthquake and tsunami risk maps


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CLIMATE INFORMATION FOR ENERGY AND WATER RESOURCE SECTORS International Workshop Climate Information Services In supporting mitigation and adaptation to climate change in energy and water sectors (Maret 2009)

BMKG Pre Int’ Workshop Identification of sub topics Mechanism Points of Recommendation

B

Lecturer – Scientist – Moderator National experts & JICA, DMI, Deltares, IRI, the University of NEWCASTLE Australia

Water Resources Sector: water availability, Water balance, rainfall scenario; 10 years

Energy Sector : • Rainfall Æ Debit • Rainfall Model Æ run of • Inflow Prediction



D Recommendations: 1. Compilation of climate data and climatic trend for the last 10 years, for updating the annual operational pattern of hydropower water usages and adapting to future climate scenarios. 2. Data provision (Spatial interpolation) and climate information (high resolution), inflow data from dams and reservoirs of hydropower. 3. Model development to predict water inflow based on information of climate prediction to better focus on hydropower operational pattern. 4. Etc ………

Concrete to project Apr – Dec 09 “Climate Information for Hydropower Performance Optimalization

Guideline for optimalization of hydropower operational

Recommendations: 1. Spatial and temporal assessment of climate trend of 30 years with the annual pattern changes, including the interannual up to the inter decadal variability. 2. Develop climate modeling for Indonesian region and modeling impact of CC to hydrology at local scale. Coupled climate and hydrological model simulation to reduce uncertainty and capture to more surface information details. 3. Setting up an institutional system and make use of the climate information for cropping calendar and mapping surface water availability for the next 10 years . 4. etc…………….

Stake Holder Department of Public Work Department of Agriculture Department of Energy

Temporal – spatial map of Water Availability

Concrete to project Apr – Dec 09 “Climate Information for Identification of Water Availability

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HOW CLIMATE INFORMATION CONTRIBUTE TO THE PLANNING AND OPERATIONAL STAGE OF ENERGY SECTOR Planning

HYDROPOWER ACTIVITIES

BMKG

Operational Contribution of Nat’ Met Service

PLANNING STAGES

OPERATIONAL STAGES

DETERMINE HEAD & CURVE EL-VOL-AR

AVAILABLE > 10 YR

TARGET OUTFLOW

INFLOW TO RESERVOIR

OBSERVED DISCHARGE

TOPOGRAPHY

NO

CLIMATE & RAINFALL DATA

DISCHARGE (DAILY/ MONTHLY)

YES

RAINFALL & CLIMATE(DAILY /MONTHLY)

HYDRO POWER

DMI

IRRIGA TION



HOURLY DISCHARGE DATA

DAILY/MONTHLY DISCHARGE DATA

MODEL SELECTION RAINFALL-RUNOF

FREQUENCY ANALYSIS

DURATION CURVE

CALIBRATION& VERIFICATION

DETERMINE QDESIGN

DETERMINE Q95 dan Q50

SYNTHETIC DISCHARGE

DESIGN STRUCTURES

INFLOW TO RESERVOIR - WET YEAR - NORMA YEAR - DRY YEAR

PFIRM = 9.8.et.eg.Q95 H PSECONDARY = 9.8.et.eg.Q50H

TOTAL OUTFLOW - WET YEAR - NORMAL YEAR - DRY YEAR

SIMULATION

PREDICTION OF RAINFALL CLIMATE& DISCHARGE RULE CURVE / OPERATING RULE

PREDICTION OFINFLOW (YEARLY) CALCULATION ENERGY POWER GENERATED

RESERVOIR CHARACTER ISTIC

YES

ACCURATE ?

RELEASE OUTFLOW FOLLOW IN THE TARGET RULE CURVE

NO

ADJUST OUTFLOW

RELEASE OUTFLOW LESS THAN TARGET

Source: Min of Public Work

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BMKG



AGENCY FOR METEOROLOGY CLIMATOLOGY & GEOPHYSICS (BMKG) JL. ANGKASA I NO. 2 KEMAYORAN JAKARTA PUSAT – INDONESIA TEL/ FAX. 62 21 6542983 http://www.bmg.go.id 9

BMKG

Eurasian Plate Pacific Plate 12 cm/yr



5-6 cm/yr

India-Australian Plate

ACTIVE TECTONICS of INDONESIA (Bock et al, 2004)

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BMKG

History of Tsunami in Indonesia (1900 – 2008) 54 Event



History of Tsunami in Australia – New Zealand (1900 – 2008) 50 Event

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BMKG

History of Tsunami in Japan (1900 – 2008) 145 Event



History of Tsunami in India (1900 – 2008) 3 Event 12

BMKG

MOST OF INDONESIA TSUNAMI ¾ Local Tsunami (arrive < 30 minute) ¾ Remote Rural Area



¾ Unsophisticated Communication System ¾ Limited Electricity Grid Network ¾ Lack of Terrestrial Communication

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MULTI MODA INFORMATION DISSEMINATION BMKG

USA nooa.gov

AsiaStar (RANET)

GTS Line

AUSTRALIA bom.gov.au NGO-USA Ranet system.net

PALAPA-C (DVB)

DVB


Internet


SERVER

Earthquake/ Tsunami warning Weather forecast Climate forecast FDRS

BMKG

• INTERNET • LEASED LINE (FO, RF) • SMS • FAX, PHONE FO = Fiber Optic RF = Radio Frequency

Interface Institutions 14

5 IN ONE INFORMATION DISSEMINATION

BMKG

SMS

Application 5 in 1 in Interface Institution

FAX



Dedicated line TXTBMKG & XML File

RANET

sms fax Web GIS Info-BMKG alarm

WEB GIS

Info-BMKG

Alarm

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PROJECTION OF ANNUAL AVERAGE RAINFALL 2010-2015 BMKG

(Contribution of BMKG for Energy Sector)



Source: Soetamto ‘Workshop Int’l HMD, Maret 2009

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PROJECTION OF ANNUAL AVERAGE RAINFALL 2016-2020 BMKG

(Contribution of BMKG for Energy Sector)



Source: Soetamto ‘Workshop Int’l HMD, Maret 2009

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BMKG

BUILDING PARTNERSHIP WITH KEY USER

Public and Users

¾ Social of sectors (ex: Agriculture, Transportation, Energy, Forestry , Infrastructure, Health, Water, Coastal Area Infrastructure, Fishery ¾ The Media



Policy maker

¾ Governmental authorities policy and decision maker ¾ High level Policy and decision maker

Industry / Provider of Instrument

¾ Integration of Communication ¾ Ex; Partner with Provider of instrument (Tide Gauge), need for adjustment of data logger specification to finer sampling rate from 15’ to 1’ to be also used for multiply hazard services 18

BMKG

A NEW APPROACH FOR THE EFFECTIVENESS OF EARLY WARNING SYSTEM ¾ A certain instrument can be developed for the usage of multiply hazard detection. Ex: Additional installment of GPS to radiosonde transmitter.



¾ Several hazard communication system, integrated in to a single decision. Ex: Tide Gauge is utilized by office of survey and mapping – Met Service – Tsunami center. Ex: For the office of survey and Tide Gauge is originally utilized merely for mapping coastal line purpose (with sampling rate 15’ ). For Met. Service, Tide Gauge is utilized for measuring wave height as marine meteorology information to support shipman (with sampling rate 60’ ). In Tsunami Center, Tide gauge data in utilized to measure tsunami height (with sampling rate 1’ ) be finer to sampling. ¾ What we should do is perform adjustment of sampling rate to be finer, to sampling rate 1’ instead of sampling rate 60’ and 15’. It is the reason that building partner with industry as the provider of instrument is highly 19 important.

“BMKG: Activities to support National Action Plan on adaptation and mitigation Climate Change Severe Impact for AGRICULTURE sector

BMKG

National Action Plan/ Mitigation Adaptation of Climate Change (Ministry of Environment) • Planting pattern and crop variety • Food diversity • Wetland intensification • Primary seed

BMKG in Cooperation with Concerned-University & institutions ¾Rainy season prediction (monsoon onset, wet spell, rain character during the season) ¾Dry season prediction (monsoon onset, dry spell, rain character during the season)


y Crop area extensification

¾Monthly rainfall prediction, 3 months ahead

y Increase use of natural fertilizer and reduce use of chemical fertilizer

¾Flood potency forecast, 3 months ahead


IPCC (AR IV) & WMO Planting area diversification Management improvement and land protection through rebiosation


¾Short term rainfall forecast 10 days ¾Provide agroclimatology potency atlas ¾Provide climate map ¾Provide drought risk map ¾Green House Gasses information

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