This report provides a fact-based overview of Virginia's power sector. It presents key metrics, highlights recent trends
State energy factsheet: Virginia March 2015
State energy factsheet: Virginia Contents 1. BIRD’S EYE VIEW OF VIRGINIA’S POWER SECTOR ............................2 2. SUSTAINABLE ENERGY DEPLOYMENT ..................3 3. CLEAN POWER PLAN .....5 4. OPPORTUNITIES .............6
This report provides a fact-based overview of Virginia’s power sector. It presents key metrics, highlights recent trends and identifies energy-related opportunities for the state in light of the EPA’s Clean Power Plan. Findings •
Virginia (VA) imports the second-most electricity in the nation on a percentage basis (it consumed 43% more than it produced in 2013).1 Retail electricity prices are below the US average, and VA maintains a relatively clean generation profile (0.41tCO2/MWh in 2013).
•
The state’s power mix is changing: since 2008, gas-fired generation increased its share at the expense of coal – a phenomenon driven by falling gas prices and newly built gas capacity – and nuclear solidified its place as the state’s primary generation source.
•
Renewables lack clear state policy support and accounted for less than 5% of generation in 2013, nearly all from hydropower and biomass (including biogas and waste-to-energy). Our analysis, based on detailed and realistic inputs, suggests that several renewable energy technologies are or very soon will be economically viable in VA.
•
VA currently ranks near the bottom of the list in terms of its overall energy efficiency efforts; state utilities spend small fractions of electricity revenues towards achieving voluntary state efficiency goals. But it has the potential to achieve substantial energy savings.
•
In terms of compliance with the EPA’s Clean Power Plan, VA’s burden is the 16th most stringent (based on one EPA metric). The EPA arrived at this target by emphasizing increased gas plant utilisation, renewable energy output and energy efficiency savings. But VA need not follow the EPA suggestions; it has various options to consider.
Table 1: Key power system metrics, Virginia versus US average, 2013
Nathan Serota Analyst, US Power and Clean Energy Economics
Metric
Units
Virginia
US average
Comment
Rank
Total retail electricity sales
TWh
110
72
Above average electricity demand
10
Total generation
TWh
77
80
Roughly average instate generation
20
Retail electricity sales per capita
MWh
13.3
11.6
Above average on a per capita basis
23
Retail electricity prices
¢/kWh
9.0
10.1
Below average electricity prices
32
Generation from gas
%
29
28
Above average reliance on gas for electricity
18
Generation from gas and renewables
%
34
41
Below average on gas and renewables
25
Energy efficiency score
ACEEE index
12.5
19.2
Below average on efficiency efforts
16
Utility energy efficiency budget
% state revenue
0.01
1.13
Essentially no utility efficiency budget
49
CO2 emissions rate
tCO2/ MWh
0.41
0.52
Relatively clean generation profile
38
‘Adjusted’ emissions rate cut
%
38
38
Roughly average ‘ask’ under the Plan
16
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, EIA, US Census Bureau, ACEEE Notes: US ranks are in descending order (ie, 1 being highest, 50 being lowest). For some metrics it is ‘good’ to have a high ranking (eg, generation from renewables, energy efficiency score); for other metrics it is ‘good’ to have a low ranking (eg, retail electricity prices, CO2 emissions rate). 1 These imports come in part from the 1.6GW Mount Storm coal-fired power station in neighboring West Virginia.
No portion of this document may be reproduced, scanned into an electronic system, distributed, publicly © Bloomberg Finance L.P.2015. displayed or used as the basis of derivative works without attributing Bloomberg New Energy Finance and Developed in partnership with The The Business Council for Sustainable Energy. For more information on terms of use, please contact Business Council for Sustainable Energy.
[email protected]. Copyright and Disclaimer notice on page 9 applies throughout.
Page 1 of 9
State energy factsheet: Virginia March 2015
1. BIRD’S EYE VIEW OF VIRGINIA’S POWER SECTOR Virginia (VA) ranks 10th in total electricity consumption (110TWh in 2013) and 20th in total electricity generation (77TWh in 2013), making it one of the nation’s biggest electricity importers. But VA is closing its domestic generation gap: between 2008 and 2013, retail electricity sales declined at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of -0.2% while in-state generation grew at 1.2% (Figure 1). Figure 1: VA electricity sales and generation, 2008-13 (TWh) Figure 2: VA electricity prices relative to regional (PJM) and US averages, 2008-13 (¢/kWh) 140
120
Net electricity imports
11
Retail electricity sales
US 10
100
PJM
80
9 Virginia
60
40
In-state electricity generation
8
20
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
7
2008
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
0
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, EIA Notes: PJM is VA’s wholesale power market, composed of 13 neighbouring states.
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, EIA
The retail price of electricity in VA was 9¢/kWh in 2013, 13% higher than in 2008, yet still below regional and US averages (Figure 2). Nuclear continues to provide baseload power for VA but there have been changes in its fossil mix with natural gas increasing share at the expense of coal. Gasfired plants provided 29% of electricity in 2013 – up from just 13% in 2008 (though down from the 2012 record, when 35% came from gas). Meanwhile, generation from renewables – mainly biogas, biomass and waste-to-energy – grew from 3.4% to 4.6% over that period (Figure 3). Figure 3: VA electricity generation mix by technology (%)
35%
10%
30%
20%
28%
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, EIA
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
0%
Coal
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6
2012
37%
0.2
2011
44%
0.4
2010
Oil
30%
Renewables Gas Nuclear Oil Coal
0.6
2008
41%
40% 20%
Nuclear
2007
38%
2006
38%
2005
50%
0.8
36%
2004
40%
1.0
2003
60%
1.2
Gas
38%
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
1.4
2009
70%
Renewables
2002
80%
1.6
2001
90%
3.4% 4.2% 3.6% 3.6% 3.4% 4.6% 13% 17% 23% 27% 35% 29%
2000
100%
Figure 4: VA utility-scale capacity additions (build, above xaxis) and retirements (below x-axis), 2000-12 (GW)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, EIA Note: Build is almost entirely gas; new renewable build is too small to be seen clearly in chart.
No portion of this document may be reproduced, scanned into an electronic system, distributed, publicly © Bloomberg Finance L.P.2015. displayed or used as the basis of derivative works without attributing Bloomberg New Energy Finance and Developed in partnership with The The Business Council for Sustainable Energy. For more information on terms of use, please contact Business Council for Sustainable Energy.
[email protected]. Copyright and Disclaimer notice on page 9 applies throughout.
Page 2 of 9
State energy factsheet: Virginia March 2015
Natural gas has been the fuel of choice for building new power plants in VA, accounting for 81% of capacity additions since 2000. VA may have built its last coal plant ever in 2012, with the commissioning of the 585MW Virginia City Hybrid Energy Center – a coal plant that burns up to 20% biomass (EPA’s New Source Performance Standards all but prevent new coal build) (Figure 4).
2. SUSTAINABLE ENERGY DEPLOYMENT Table 2: VA policies relevant to sustainable energy sectors Renewables Voluntary renewable energy portfolio goal Sets a voluntary goal for investor-owned utilities (IOUs) to procure 15% of base year (2007) retail electricity sales by 2025 from eligible renewable technologies Net metering Net excess generation from non-residential (
