projects the non-resident population to increase to 21,560 persons by 2021. ... http://www.qgso.qld.gov.au/products/repo
Bowen and Galilee Basins non–resident population projections, 2015 to 2021 Introduction
Figure 1: Bowen and Galilee Basins
With the use of fly-in/fly-out and drive-in/drive-out (FIFO/DIDO) work practices, it is common for resource regions have a large population of non-resident workers who live in the area only while on-shift. This non-resident population is not included in the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ (ABS) official resident population estimates for these areas. To bridge this information gap, Bowen and Galilee Basins non–resident population projections, 2015 to 2021 provides projected numbers of non–resident workers on-shift for local government areas (LGAs) in the Bowen and Galilee Basin regions (Figure 1). The report presents four projection series, based on information provided by industry regarding existing operations and future projects. Data tables to supplement the report are available on the Queensland Government Statistician’s Office (QGSO) website (www.qgso.qld.gov.au).
Key points Key points of this report include:
The non-resident population of the Bowen Basin was 16,360 persons in June 2014, down from a peak of 25,040 in June 2012. Factors contributing to this fall include completion of construction for new mines, expansion projects and coal seam gas (CSG) projects, as well as mine closures and workforce restructuring.1
In this publication, the Bowen Basin is defined as the LGAs of Banana (S), Central Highlands (R), Isaac (R) and Whitsunday (R) (Bowen only)1. The Galilee Basin comprises the LGA of Barcaldine (R).
Four projection series expect the Bowen Basin’s non-resident population to reach between 14,230 and 14,640 persons by June 2015. The Series A projection, which takes into account the non-resident workforces of existing resource operations and projects that have passed final investment decision (FID), anticipates that the region’s non-resident population will moderate to 13,670 persons by 2021, a level similar to that recorded in 2008 (13,660 persons).
Series B, C and D projections for the Bowen Basin include elements of the proposed Galilee Basin mine, railway and port projects that would occur within the LGAs of Isaac (R) and Whitsunday (R) (Bowen only). Series B, which takes into account projects that have had an Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) approved but have yet to reach FID, expects that the Bowen Basin’s non-resident population will increase substantially from 2016, peaking at 20,040 persons in 2018 before falling to 18,380 persons by 2021.
Series C, which includes consideration of projects that have yet to finalise an EIS process, anticipates an increase to 20,520 persons in 2018, falling to 19,750 persons in 2021. Series D, which includes projects in the early stages of planning, projects the non-resident population to increase to 21,560 persons by 2021.
Under all four projection series, the non-resident population of Isaac (R) will decline from 11,090 in 2015 to between 9,530 and 9,800 persons by June 2015. Series A anticipates that the non-resident population of Isaac (R) will then slowly decrease to 9,230 persons by 2021, while the Series B, C and D projections anticipate a return to growth in 2016. The latter scenarios envisage that the LGA’s non-resident population could increase to between 13,450 and 15,130 persons by 2021, driven largely by the construction workforces for proposed coal mines, gas and infrastructure projects.
Development of large greenfield mining projects, rail and power infrastructure in the Galilee Basin would see the non-resident population of Barcaldine (R) increase substantially to a peak of around 3,260 persons in 2021 (Series B projection), and 3,270 persons in 2020 (Series D projection).
1
Whitsunday (R) (Bowen only) comprises the statistical areas level 2 (SA2s) of Bowen and Collinsville, which cover the area of former Bowen Shire.
Bowen and Galilee Basins future influences The Bowen Basin is Queensland’s major coal mining region, with 42 surface and underground coal operations and one metalliferous mine in production as at January 2015 (Table 7, pages 10–11). One new coal project (Drake Coal) commenced operations during the preceding year, producing first coal in September 2014. Two coal mining projects (Grosvenor Coal Project and Eagle Downs Coal Project) are currently under construction in the region. The non-resident population of the Bowen Basin was 16,360 persons in June 2014, a fall of 6,540 from the preceding year 2. This fall in the non-resident population continued the downward trend that began in 2012–13, influenced by completion of coal and gas construction projects, closures of operating mines and workforce restructuring. Industry announcements made in late 2014 indicate that further rationalisation of the Bowen Basin’s mining workforces will occur in 2015 (ABC, 2014), as operators adjust to “difficult market conditions” (Glencore, 2014a). Two mine closures are foreshadowed—Isaac Plains mine, which will cease production in early 2015 (QRC, 2014), and Newlands Underground mine, which will reach the end of its mine life in late 2015 (Glencore, 2014b). Balanced against these losses, a number of proposed resource projects and infrastructure developments located in the Bowen Basin have had an EIS approved by the Queensland Government but are awaiting FID. These include:
ten greenfield coal mines, most notably the large Carmichael Coal and Byerwen Coal projects two new rail projects (Carmichael Rail and North Galilee Basin Rail) Arrow Energy’s proposed Bowen Gas project and Bowen Pipeline project two Abbot Point port developments associated with the Carmichael Coal project and the Alpha Coal/Kevin’s Corner projects.
In addition to these, other announced projects are progressing through the EIS process. Should they proceed to FID as planned, these projects will contribute substantially to the Bowen Basin’s non-resident population out to 2021. The Galilee Basin is an extensive coal resource in central western Queensland, extending north from the LGA of Barcaldine (R) through the LGA of Isaac (R) (Figure 2). Several large coal mines and associated infrastructure are proposed for the Galilee Basin, including:
four greenfield mines in Barcaldine (R)—Alpha Coal, Kevin’s Corner, China First and South Galilee Coal—which have been approved but are awaiting FID rail proposals linked to these mines, which will occur in Barcaldine (R) as well as the Bowen Basin LGAs of Isaac (R) and Whitsunday (R) two power projects (Galilee Basin Transmission Project and Galilee Basin Power Station Project) in Barcaldine (R).
The mines proposed for the Galilee Basin are large, both in terms of coal production and workforces required. Given the remoteness of these mines, project proponents have indicated that they will largely utilise FIFO workforces during construction and operational phases.
Projection methodology QGSO’s 2015 to 2021 non–resident population projection methodology comprises four different series, which represent a range of possible outcomes arising from the future development of resource projects and operations in the Bowen and Galilee Basins. Each series estimates the cumulative non-resident population that would be present in each LGA at 30 June of each year to 2021, should the operations and projects listed in each category proceed according to advised timeframes and workforce numbers.2 Users of these projections should note that there is a degree of uncertainty about the likelihood of these projects proceeding as assumed, and as such the projections should be regarded as being indicative scenarios rather than probabilistic predictions. QGSO does not advocate any of the projection series as being the most likely or favoured outcome. See caveats on page 12 of this report for further details. The four projection series are based on the workforces of operations and projects at the time of preparation. Projects are categorised and included in each scenario according to their standing in the EIS process3.
Series A projection is based on the number of non–resident workers on-shift who were engaged in existing resource operations and associated infrastructure activities in the area at June 2014. The projection takes into account future changes to those operational workforces as advised by resource company sources, as well as the estimated non–resident construction and operational workforces of Category A projects (i.e. those that had reached FID) at the time of preparation.
Series B projection includes the Series A projection plus projected growth in the non-resident population arising from Category B projects (those that have an EIS approved but have yet to reach FID).
Series C projection includes the Series A and B projections, plus the projected growth in the non-resident population arising from Category C projects (those that have lodged an EIS, but have yet to proceed through to final approval).
2 3
See the Bowen Basin population report, 2014 http://www.qgso.qld.gov.au/products/reports/bowen-basin-pop-report/index.php. The projections also include some projects where an EIS is not or may not be mandatory.
Bowen and Galilee Basins non–resident population projections, 2015 to 2021
2
Series D projection includes Series A, B and C projections, plus the projected growth in the non-resident population from Category D projects (those that have yet to publish an EIS, including projects that have lodged an Initial Advice Statement (IAS) as well as projects that have yet to begin the approvals process).
Where FID for an approved project has been delayed indefinitely by the proponent, it is not possible to give consideration to its indicative workforce data or project sequencing in the QGSO projections. Such projects, along with other projects that are dependent on them in order to commence, are designated as Category E and are not included in any of the four projection series. A full list of existing operations and projects included in each category is available in Table 7 (pages 10–11), and a map of future projects in the Bowen and Galilee Basins is shown in Figure 2. (a)
Figure 2: Selected future projects , Bowen and Galilee Basins
(a) Includes coal and LNG pipeline projects. Does not include rail, gas field and other infrastructure projects. Does not include existing operations. Future project status is current as at January 2015. See Table 7 (pages 10–11) for a full list of existing operations and future projects by project category. Source: QGSO, 2015
Bowen and Galilee Basins non–resident population projections, 2015 to 2021
3
Projected non–resident workers on-shift, Bowen Basin Rapid expansion of coal mining activity in the Bowen Basin, coupled with the use of FIFO/DIDO workforces, saw the region’s non-resident population increase to a peak of 25,040 persons in June 2012 (Figure 3). Particularly strong growth occurred between 2010 and 2012, driven by construction of new mines and mine expansions, associated infrastructure development and flood recovery work. From 2013 to 2014, a downturn in the number of non–resident workers on-shift was temporarily offset by the presence of construction crews building pipeline and surface infrastructure for CSG projects based in the neighbouring Surat Basin. Completion of mine and CSG construction activity, mine closures and coal industry restructuring saw the Bowen Basin’s non-resident population fall to 16,360 persons in June 2014. Four projection series are presented for the Bowen Basin. All four series expect that the region’s non-resident population will continue to fall in the short term as a result of announced workforce reductions and mine closures, reaching between 14,230 and 14,640 persons by June 2015 (Table 1). The Series A projection then anticipates that the number of non–resident workers on-shift will moderate to 13,670 persons by 2021, similar to that recorded in 2008 (13,660 persons). From 2015, projection Series B, C and D foresee overall growth in the Bowen Basin’s non-resident population. Series B projects an increase to 20,040 persons in 2018, followed by a gradual decline to 18,140 persons in 2020, then a small increase to 18,380 persons in 2021. This series takes account of several Bowen Basin mines that have been approved but are yet to reach FID, as well as the rail and port elements of Galilee Basin projects that will influence Isaac (R) and Whitsunday (R), and Arrow Energy’s LNG pipeline projects. Series C, which includes further coal projects, the Nathan Dam and Pipelines Project and Santos GLNG Gas Field Development, anticipates an increase to 20,520 persons in 2018, before tapering off to 19,220 persons in 2020, then increasing to 19,750 persons in 2021. The Series D projection, which includes a number of coal projects in preliminary planning stages plus the impacts of the Central Queensland Integrated Rail Project, would see the non-resident population reach 21,280 persons in 2018, then a slight dip followed by further growth to 21,560 persons in 2021.
Figure 3: Past and projected non–resident workers on-shift, Bowen Basin Non-resident workers on-shift
Persons
Series A
Series B
Series C
Series D
30,000 Estimated
Projected
25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Source: QGSO estimates, 2006 to 2014; QGSO projections, 2015 to 2021
Table 1: Projected non–resident workers on-shift, Bowen Basin Number of non–resident workers on-shift at 30 June Estimated Projection series
Projected
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Series A
16,360
14,230
14,310
14,090
13,650
13,680
13,720
13,670
Series B
16,360
14,550
17,770
19,830
20,040
19,050
18,140
18,380
Series C
16,360
14,640
18,030
20,260
20,520
19,710
19,220
19,750
Series D
16,360
14,640
18,180
20,650
21,280
20,330
20,500
21,560
Figures in all tables have been rounded to the nearest 10; see notes for details. Source: QGSO estimates, 2014; QGSO projections, 2015 to 2021
Bowen and Galilee Basins non–resident population projections, 2015 to 2021
4
Banana (S) The LGA of Banana (S) had three coal mines in production at January 2015 (Table 7, pages 10–11). The presence of large construction workforces of CSG pipeline and gas field development projects saw the LGA’s non-resident population temporarily grow from 1,590 persons in June 2012 to a peak of 2,750 persons in June 2013, before declining to 1,430 persons in June 2014. With most CSG-related construction substantially completed by the end of 2014, the non-resident population of Banana (S) is expected to decline further by mid-2015 (Figure 4). Three projection series are presented for Banana (S), which see the non-resident population falling to between 1,020 and 1,050 persons in June 2015 (Table 2). Series A projects the non-resident population of Banana (S) to increase slightly and stabilise at 1,070 persons from 2016 onwards. This series largely reflects the non-resident workforces associated with ongoing coal mining operations in the LGA, and marks a return to a similar non-resident population to that recorded in 2008 (1,090 persons). The Series B projection also expects the number of non–resident workers on-shift to reach 1,070 persons in 2016, increasing to 1,460 persons in 2018, then returning to 1,070 persons thereafter. This series is largely influenced by the non–resident construction workforce of Arrow Energy’s Surat to Gladstone Pipeline Project, as well as Stage One of the Wiggins Island Rail Project. According to Series C, the non-resident population of Banana (S) will increase from around 1,100 persons in 2016 and 2017 to reach 1,480 persons in 2018, before settling at 1,380 persons in 2020 and 2021. This series reflects the additional impact of the Baralaba North Continued Operations Project and Nathan Dam and Pipelines Project. There is no Series D projection for Banana (S), as there are no future projects in Category D. None of the projection series for Banana (S) include consideration of the Surat Basin Rail Project, which is on hold indefinitely, or the Taroom Coal Project, which is dependent upon this infrastructure. These projects are classified as Category E (refer Table 7, pages 10–11).
Figure 4: Past and projected non–resident workers on-shift, Banana (S) Persons
Non-resident workers on-shift
Series A
Series B
Series C
3,000 Estimated
Projected
2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Source: QGSO estimates, 2006 to 2014; QGSO projections, 2015 to 2021
Table 2: Projected non–resident workers on-shift, Banana (S) Number of non–resident workers on-shift at 30 June Estimated Projection series
(a)
Projected
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Series A
1,430
1,020
1,070
1,070
1,070
1,070
1,070
1,070
Series B
1,430
1,030
1,070
1,070
1,460
1,070
1,070
1,070
Series C
1,430
1,050
1,110
1,100
1,480
1,270
1,380
1,380
(a) There is no Series D projection for Banana (S). Source: QGSO estimates, 2014; QGSO projections, 2015 to 2021
Bowen and Galilee Basins non–resident population projections, 2015 to 2021
5
Central Highlands (R) In January 2015, there were 11 coal mining operations in the LGA of Central Highlands (R) (Table 7, pages 10–11), along with several rail and CSG projects that were under construction. The non-resident population of Central Highlands experienced strong growth from 2010 to 2012, largely due to sizeable construction workforces associated with mine expansion projects, CSG pipeline projects and post-flood reconstruction work. After peaking at 5,580 persons in June 2012 (Figure 5), the number of non–resident workers on-shift in Central Highlands (R) fell to 3,380 persons by June 2014. This decline in the region’s non-resident population was due in part to completion of construction activity, along with mine closures and workforce restructuring. Four projection series are presented for Central Highlands (R), all of which project a continued fall in the LGA’s non-resident population to between 3,230 and 3,340 persons by June 2015. The Series A projection, which accounts largely for existing operational and project construction workforces, shows a gradual decline in the non-resident population from 2015, with the number of non–resident workers on-shift stabilising at 2,850 persons in 2019 and beyond. The Series B, C and D projections mainly reflect the growth influences of new coal mine and CSG proposals. The Series B projection, which includes five approved coal projects, the Bowen Gas Project, and Galilee Basin Transmission Project, anticipates the non-resident population of Central Highlands (R) to increase to just under 4,000 persons in 2016 and 2017, before declining to 3,330 persons in 2018 and settling thereafter. Series C factors in the workforce impacts of three coal projects and the Santos GLNG Gas Field Development, which are still progressing though the EIS process. Under this scenario, the non-resident population of Central Highlands (R) is expected to grow to 4,180 persons in 2016, before declining to 3,630 in 2019, then increasing to 4,190 by 2021. The workforces of four additional coal projects are taken into account under the Series D projection. According to this series, the number of non–resident workers on-shift in Central Highlands (R) would reach 4,360 persons in 2017, and 4,520 in 2021.
Figure 5: Past and projected non–resident workers on-shift, Central Highlands (R) Non-resident workers on-shift
Persons
Series A
Series B
Series C
Series D
7,000 Estimated
Projected
6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Source: QGSO estimates, 2006 to 2014; QGSO projections, 2015 to 2021
Table 3: Projected non–resident workers on-shift, Central Highlands (R) Number of non–resident workers on-shift at 30 June Estimated
Projected
Projection series
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Series A
3,380
3,230
3,110
3,040
2,880
2,850
2,850
2,850
Series B
3,380
3,280
3,960
3,920
3,330
3,330
3,330
3,330
Series C
3,380
3,340
4,180
4,170
3,660
3,630
3,900
4,190
Series D
3,380
3,340
4,340
4,360
4,100
4,020
4,190
4,520
Source: QGSO estimates, 2014; QGSO projections, 2015 to 2021
Bowen and Galilee Basins non–resident population projections, 2015 to 2021
6
Isaac (R) With 24 coal mining operations active at January 2015, and a further two coal mine projects under construction (Table 7, pages 10–11), Isaac (R) has the largest non-resident population of all Bowen Basin LGAs. This population increased steeply from 9,900 persons in June 2010 to a peak of 17,130 persons in June 2012 (Figure 6), driven largely by the large construction workforces of new mining projects and expansions to existing operations. With most of this construction activity completed in 2013–14, the number of non–resident workers on-shift in the LGA fell to 11,090 persons by June 2014. Numbers were further reduced during this period by mine closures and workforce restructuring. Four projection series are presented for Isaac (R), which expect the LGA’s non-resident population to fall to between 9,530 and 9,800 persons by June 2015 (Table 4). Further mine closures and announced workforce reductions will account for much of this predicted downturn. The Series A projection, which is based on changes to the non-resident workforces of existing operations as well as projects under construction, anticipates that the non-resident population of Isaac (R) will slowly decline to 9,230 persons by 2021, similar to the non-resident population level recorded in 2008 (9,380 persons). Series B, C and D all project the non-resident population of Isaac (R) to increase after 2015. The Series B projection, which takes into account construction of the Arrow Bowen Pipeline Project and five new coal mines, including the large Carmichael Coal Project, along with associated rail and power infrastructure projects, represents the major growth trend. Series B projects the non-resident population to reach 14,040 persons in 2018 and 13,450 persons in 2021, following a slight decline in 2020. Series C follows a similar trajectory to Series B, factoring in the additional influences of two coal projects from 2017 onward. Under this scenario, the non-resident population of Isaac (R) would reach a peak of 14,180 persons in 2018 before falling to 13,640 persons by 2021. The Series D projection, representing the cumulative growth of all projects in the development pipeline (including five additional coal projects), anticipates that the non-resident population would grow to 15,130 persons in 2021.
Figure 6: Past and projected non–resident workers on-shift, Isaac (R) Non-resident workers on-shift
Persons
Series A
Series B
Series C
Series D
20,000 Estimated
18,000
Projected
16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Source: QGSO estimates, 2006 to 2014; QGSO projections, 2015 to 2021
Table 4: Projected non–resident workers on-shift, Isaac (R) Number of non–resident workers on-shift at 30 June Estimated Projection series
Projected
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Series A
11,090
9,530
9,650
9,520
9,190
9,240
9,280
9,230
Series B
11,090
9,800
10,990
13,440
14,040
13,690
13,210
13,450
Series C
11,090
9,800
10,990
13,590
14,180
13,850
13,400
13,640
Series D
11,090
9,800
10,990
13,790
14,510
14,090
14,390
15,130
Source: QGSO estimates, 2014; QGSO projections, 2015 to 2021
Bowen and Galilee Basins non–resident population projections, 2015 to 2021
7
Whitsunday (R) (Bowen only) In January 2015, there were four coal mines and one metalliferous mine operating in Whitsunday (R) (Bowen only), along with the Port of Abbot Point (Table 7, pages 10–11). The Collinsville coal mine, which closed temporarily in September 2013, has since resumed operations, while Drake Coal achieved operational status and produced first coal in 2014. The area’s non-resident population, which reached a peak of just over 700 persons in 2012, was 470 persons in June 2014 (Figure 7). Two projection series are presented for Whitsunday (R) (Bowen only). Under both series, the non-resident population is expected to fall slightly to 440 persons in June 2015 (Table 5), largely due to completion of the construction phase of the Drake mine. From 2015 onwards, changes to the size of the non-resident population in the Series A projection are mainly influenced by fluctuations in workforce numbers of existing mines in the area. Under this series, the number of non–resident workers on-shift is projected to reach 470 in 2017, before settling at 520 persons from 2018. Substantially higher growth is predicted under the Series B projection. This series reflects the influence of FIFO/DIDO workforces associated with the construction of rail and port components of proposed Galilee Basin coal projects, as well as the Bowen Gas Project. Given the temporary nature of construction workforces and the largely resident operational workforces of these projects, their impact on the non-resident population of Whitsunday (R) (Bowen only) will be short-lived rather than sustained. Series B anticipates that the non-resident population of Whitsunday (R) (Bowen only) will increase sharply to 1,750 persons in 2016, before falling back to 530 persons in 2020. There are no Series C or D projections for Whitsunday (R) (Bowen only), as there are no future projects in these categories.
Figure 7: Past and projected non–resident workers on-shift, Whitsunday (R) (Bowen only) Non-resident workers on-shift
Persons
Series A
Series B
2,000 Estimated
1,800
Projected
1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Source: QGSO estimates, 2006 to 2014; QGSO projections, 2015 to 2021
Table 5: Projected non–resident workers on-shift, Whitsunday (R) (Bowen only) Number of non–resident workers on-shift at 30 June Estimated Projection series
(a)
Projected
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Series A
470
440
490
470
520
520
520
520
Series B
470
440
1,750
1,400
1,200
960
530
540
(a) There are no Series C or Series D projections for Whitsunday (R) (Bowen only). Source: QGSO estimates, 2014; QGSO projections, 2015 to 2021
Bowen and Galilee Basins non–resident population projections, 2015 to 2021
8
Projected non–resident workers on-shift, Galilee Basin The Galilee Basin coal measure spans a number of LGAs, including Barcaldine (R) to the south and the Bowen Basin LGA of Isaac (R)4. While there are no coal mines currently operating or under construction in the Galilee Basin, several large mines and associated rail projects are planned for the area covered by both LGAs. The following projections refer only to the non-resident population of the Galilee Basin projects that will occur in Barcaldine (R). Three projection series are provided for Barcaldine (R). The Series A projection (Table 6) reflects the baseline non-resident population that has been estimated in the area each year since 2010, and which declined to around 50 persons in 2014 (Figure 8). This small population, which largely comprises crews involved in ongoing resource industry exploration and testing, is not expected to increase substantially prior to commencement of any major project. The Series B projection includes projects that have an EIS approved but have yet to reach FID. These include Hancock Coal’s Alpha Coal Project mine and railway; Hancock Galilee’s Kevin’s Corner Coal Project; Waratah Coal’s China First Project mine and railway; and AMCI’s South Galilee Coal Project. It also includes Powerlink’s Galilee Basin Transmission Project. The Series B projection, which is influenced by the presence of large construction workforces for these projects, foresees a rapid increase in Barcaldine (R)’s non-resident population, reaching a peak of 3,260 persons in 2021. The Series D projection includes the additional influences of the Central Queensland Integrated Rail Project and Galilee Basin Power Station, which have yet to publish an EIS. According to this scenario the number of non–resident workers on-shift in Barcaldine (R) would peak at 3,270 persons in 2020. There is no Series C projection for Barcaldine (R) as there are no future projects in Category C (those that have lodged an EIS, but have yet to proceed through to final approval).
Figure 8: Past and projected non–resident workers on-shift, Barcaldine (R) Persons
Non-resident workers on-shift
Series A
Series B
Series D
3,500 Estimated
Projected
3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Source: QGSO estimates, 2010 to 2014; QGSO projections, 2015 to 2021
Table 6: Projected non–resident workers on-shift, Barcaldine (R) Number of non–resident workers on-shift at 30 June Estimated Projection series
Projected
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Series A
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
Series B
50
150
230
1,490
1,810
2,490
3,070
3,260
Series D
50
150
230
1,640
2,020
2,840
3,270
3,260
(a) There is no Series C projection for Barcaldine (R). Source: QGSO estimates, 2014; QGSO projections, 2015 to 2021
4
For the purposes of this publication and population projections, the Galilee Basin is defined as Barcaldine (R). Where the population impacts of Galilee Basin projects will occur in Isaac (R) and Whitsunday (R) (Bowen only), they are included in projections for the Bowen Basin.
Bowen and Galilee Basins non–resident population projections, 2015 to 2021
9
Table 7: Resource operations and future projects, Bowen and Galilee Basins (a)
Category
Project / operation name
Company name
LGA
A
Abbot Point Bulk Coal
Mundra Port
Whitsunday (R) (Bowen only)
A
Baralaba mine
Cockatoo Coal
Banana (S)
A
Blackwater mine
BMA
Central Highlands (R)
A
Broadmeadow mine
BMA
Isaac (R)
A
Burton mine
Peabody Energy Australia
Isaac (R)
A
Callide mine
Anglo American
Banana (S)
A
Capcoal Operations (German Creek mines)
Anglo American
Isaac (R)
A
Carborough Downs mine
Vale Australia
Isaac (R)
A
Caval Ridge mine
BMA
Isaac (R)
A
Clermont mine
GS Coal
Isaac (R)
A
Collinsville mine
Glencore Coal
Whitsunday (R) (Bowen only)
A
Cook mine
Cook Resources
Central Highlands (R)
A
Coppabella mine
Peabody Energy Australia
Isaac (R)
A
Cows Coal mine
QCoal
Whitsunday (R) (Bowen only)
A
Crinum mine
BMA
Central Highlands (R)
A
Curragh mine
Wesfarmers Resources
Central Highlands (R)
A
Daunia mine
BMA
Isaac (R)
A
Dawson mine
Anglo American
Banana (S)
A
Drake Coal
Drake Coal
Whitsunday (R) (Bowen only)
A
Eaglefield / North Goonyella mine
Peabody Energy Australia
Isaac (R)
A
Ensham mine
Ensham Resources
Central Highlands (R)
A
Foxleigh mine
Anglo American
Isaac (R)
A
Goonyella Riverside mine
BMA
Isaac (R)
A
Grasstree mine
Anglo American
Isaac (R)
A
Hail Creek mine
Rio Tinto Coal Australia
Isaac (R)
A
Isaac Plains mine
Vale Australia, Sumitomo
Isaac (R)
A
Jellinbah mine
Jellinbah Mining
Central Highlands (R)
A
Kestrel mine
Queensland Coal
Central Highlands (R)
A
Lake Vermont mine
Lake Vermont Resources
Isaac (R)
A
Middlemount mine
Middlemount Coal
Isaac (R)
A
Millennium mine
Peabody Energy Australia
Isaac (R)
A
Minerva mine
Sojitz Coal Mining
Central Highlands (R)
A
Moorvale mine
Peabody Energy Australia
Isaac (R)
A
Moranbah Explosives Plant
Incitec Pivot
Isaac (R)
A
Moranbah Gas Project
Arrow Energy
Isaac (R)
A
Moranbah North mine
Anglo American
Isaac (R)
A
Mt Carlton gold mine
Evolution Mining
Whitsunday (R) (Bowen only)
A
Nebo Rail Maintenance Facility
Pacific National
Isaac (R)
A
Newlands surface and underground mines
Glencore Coal
Isaac (R)
A
Oaky Creek surface and underground mines
Glencore Coal
Central Highlands (R)
A
Peak Downs mine
BMA
Isaac (R)
A
Poitrel mine
BHP Mitsui Coal
Isaac (R)
A
Rolleston mine
Glencore Coal
Central Highlands (R)
A
Saraji mine
BMA
Isaac (R)
A
Sonoma mine
Sonoma Mine Management
Whitsunday (R) (Bowen only)
A
South Walker Creek mine
BHP Mitsui Coal
Isaac (R)
A
Yarrabee mine
Yancoal Australia
Central Highlands (R)
A
Eagle Downs Coal Project
Eagle Downs Coal Management
Isaac (R)
A
Gladstone Liquefied Natural Gas Project
Santos GLNG
Central Highlands (R), Maranoa (R), Western Downs (R)
Existing operations
Future projects
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Category(a)
Project / operation name
Company name
LGA
A
Grosvenor Coal Project
Anglo American
Isaac (R)
A
Wiggins Island Rail Project, Stage One – sub-projects 4 and 5
Aurizon Holdings
Central Highlands (R), Rockhampton (R)
B
Abbot Point Coal Terminal Expansion (T0)
Adani Mining
Whitsunday (R) (Bowen only)
B
Abbot Point Coal Terminal Expansion (T3)
Hancock Coal Infrastructure
Whitsunday (R) (Bowen only)
B
Alpha Coal Project – mine
Hancock Coal
Barcaldine (R)
B
Alpha Coal Project– railway
Hancock Coal Infrastructure
Barcaldine (R), Isaac (R), Whitsunday (R) (Bowen only)
B
Arrow Bowen Pipeline Project
Arrow Energy
Isaac (R), Rockhampton (R), Gladstone (R)
B
Bluff Coal Project
Carabella Resources
Central Highlands (R)
B
Bowen Gas Project
Arrow Energy
Central Highlands (R), Isaac (R), Whitsunday (R) (Bowen only)
B
Byerwen Coal Project
Byerwen Coal
Isaac (R)
B
Carmichael Coal Project – mine
Adani Mining
Isaac (R)
B
Carmichael Coal Project – railway
Adani Mining
Isaac (R)
B
China First Project – mine
Waratah Coal
Barcaldine (R)
B
China First Project – railway
Waratah Coal
Barcaldine (R), Isaac (R), Whitsunday (R) (Bowen only)
B
Codrilla Coal Mine Project
Peabody Energy Australia
Isaac (R)
B
Ellensfield Coal Project
Rio Doce Australia
Isaac (R)
B
Galilee Basin Transmission Project
Powerlink
Barcaldine (R), Central Highlands (R), Isaac (R)
B
Kevin's Corner Coal Project
Hancock Galilee
Barcaldine (R)
B
Meteor Downs South Project
U&D Mining
Central Highlands (R)
B
Minyango Project
Blackwater Coal
Central Highlands (R)
B
Moranbah South Project
Anglo American
Isaac (R)
B
North Galilee Basin Rail Project
Adani Mining
Isaac (R), Whitsunday (R) (Bowen only)
B
South Galilee Coal Project
AMCI and Alpha Coal Management
Barcaldine (R)
B
Springsure Creek Coal Project
Springsure Creek Coal
Central Highlands (R)
B
Surat to Gladstone Pipeline Project
Arrow Energy
Banana (S), Western Downs (R), Gladstone (R)
B
Washpool Hard Coking Coal Project
Aquila Resources
Central Highlands (R)
B
Wiggins Island Rail Project, Stage One – sub-project 8
Aurizon Holdings
Banana (S)
C
Baralaba North Continued Operations Project
Cockatoo Coal
Banana (S)
C
Nathan Dam and Pipelines Project
SunWater
Banana (S)
C
New Lenton Project
New Hope Group
Isaac (R)
C
Red Hill Mining Lease Project
BMA
Isaac (R)
C
Rolleston Coal Expansion Project
Glencore Coal
Central Highlands (R)
C
Santos GLNG Gas Field Development
Santos GLNG
Central Highlands (R), Maranoa (R)
C
Taroborah Coal Project
Shenhuo International Group
Central Highlands (R)
C
Teresa Coal Project
New Emerald Coal
Central Highlands (R)
D
Belview Coking Coal Project
Stanmore Coal
Central Highlands (R)
D
Broughton Coal Mine Project
U&D Mining
Isaac (R)
D
Central Queensland Integrated Rail Project
Aurizon Holdings
Barcaldine (R), Isaac (R)
D
China Stone Coal Project
Macmines Australia
Isaac (R)
D
Dingo West Project
Dingo West Coal
Central Highlands (R)
D
Galilee Basin Power Station
Waratah Coal
Barcaldine (R)
D
Grosvenor West Project
Carabella Resources
Isaac (R)
D
Hail Creek Transition Project
Rio Tinto Coal Australia
Isaac (R)
D
Hillalong Coal Project
Shandong Energy
Isaac (R)
D
Mackenzie Coal Project
Moreton Resources
Central Highlands (R)
D
Wilton Coal Project
Wilton Coking Coal
Central Highlands (R)
E
Surat Basin Rail Project
Surat Basin Rail
Banana (S), Western Downs (R)
E
Taroom Coal Project
New Hope Group
Banana (S)
(a) The five categories include existing operations and future projects, grouped according to their status in the EIS process as at January 2015. See methodology (page 2) and caveats (page 12) for further details. Source: QGSO, 2015
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Caveats QGSO’s non–resident population projections provide an estimate of the number of non–resident workers on-shift by LGA. They are based on the on-shift non–resident worker population estimates established in previous years and take into account future workforce growth arising from resource industry and infrastructure projects planned for the region, as reported directly by resource companies. Projections are based on the best available data and advice at the time of preparation. Numbers of non–resident workers on-shift are projected for the period to 2021 only, as it is considered that the reliability of information regarding future projects diminishes considerably beyond that point. Projected numbers of non–resident workers on-shift presented in this report represent an estimate for 30 June of the indicated year. Temporary peaks and falls in project workforces may occur in between these mid-year estimates for successive years. The four projection series represent a range of possible outcomes based on the status of projects in the EIS process at the time of production in January 2015 (see the projection methodology, page 2, for further details). These outcomes are subject to change over time as projects proceed through the approvals process. Projections reflect the cumulative impacts of multiple projects at a given point in time, and changes to any individual project will affect the projected cumulative outcome. Series D projections include projects that are in the early stages of planning and that have yet to proceed to a published EIS. Workforce data and indicative start dates provided to QGSO for these projects are preliminary company estimates, which may not be publicly available. Both estimated workforce numbers and project timeframes are subject to change during the course of project planning. As such, Series D projections should be regarded as having a higher degree of uncertainty than the other three series. Category E comprises projects that have completed the approvals process but where FID has been delayed indefinitely, as well as other projects that are dependent on the commencement of projects in this category. As no indicative timeframes were available at the time of preparation they could not be allocated to a projection series. Changes in the status of these projects could substantially alter any or all of the possible outcomes represented by the four projection series. The projections reflect certain assumptions about the likelihood of projects advancing according to advised commencement dates, sequencing of project stages and timing of workforce peaks. Changes to any of these factors can make a significant difference to the cumulative non-resident workforce at a given point in time, particularly during construction phases. Short-term influences such as extreme weather events, industrial action and supply chain delays can all result in changes to project scheduling and to these projections. QGSO does not advocate any one series as being the most likely or favoured outcome and users should consider the assumptions affecting each potential scenario. Given the volatile nature of the resource sector and the inherent uncertainty about the likelihood of projects proceeding as indicated, these projections should be considered as being indicative of the range of potential outcomes rather than literal accounts of future growth. Notes (R) – Regional Council
(S) – Shire
Non-resident workers are people who fly-in/fly-out or drive-in/drive-out (FIFO/DIDO) to work and live in the area temporarily while rostered on, and who have their usual place of residence elsewhere. Non-resident workers include FIFO/DIDO mining and gas industry employees and contractors, construction workers and associated sub-contractors. Figures in this report refer to the number of non–resident workers on-shift, or present in the area at a given point in time, and should not be confused with total non–resident workforce numbers. The population impacts of Galilee Basin projects located in Isaac (R) are included in projections for the Bowen Basin rather than the Galilee Basin. Similarly, most of the rail and port construction and operations activities for the Galilee Basin projects will take place in the Bowen Basin LGAs of Isaac (R) and Whitsunday (R) (Bowen only), rather than in Barcaldine (R). Data in this report are derived from surveys conducted by QGSO in 2014 and other sources. The Survey of Accommodation Providers counted the number of non–resident workers on-shift during the last week of June 2014. See the Bowen Basin population report, 2014 http://www.qgso.qld.gov.au/products/reports/bowen-basin-pop-report/index.php for further details. The Resource Operations Employment Survey and the Resource Projects Employment Survey gathered workforce information from all resource companies with existing operations or future projects in the Bowen and Galilee Basins as at June 2014. A full list of existing operations and future projects is available in Table 7 of this report. The total number of non–resident workers on-shift for the Bowen Basin represents the aggregate non-resident populations of all LGAs in the region. This total may include a small number of non-resident workers in each LGA who live elsewhere within the Bowen Basin. Figures in tables have been rounded to the nearest 10. As a result of rounding, discrepancies may occur between sums of the component items and totals. Percentages and other calculations are made prior to rounding of figures and discrepancies might therefore exist between these calculations and those that could be derived from the rounded figures. Data tables to supplement this report are available on-line at http://www.qgso.qld.gov.au/products/tables/index.php. References ABC (2014) BMA cuts 700 jobs at its Central Queensland mines, 23 September 2014 http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-09-23/bma-mine-joblosses/5762766 Glencore (2014a) Glencore confirms cutbacks at Newlands open cut coal mine 12 August 2014 (unpublished) Glencore (2014b) Glencore outlines closure plan for Newlands Northern Underground Mine 22 May 2014 (unpublished) QRC (2014) QRC responds to Isaac Plains job losses, 30 September 2014 https://www.qrc.org.au/01_cms/details.asp?ID=3526 Queensland Government Statistician’s Office Queensland Treasury http://www.qgso.qld.gov.au/
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