Bowen and Galilee Basins non-resident population projections, 2015 ...

Bowen and Galilee Basins non–resident population projections, 2015 to 2021 Introduction

Figure 1: Bowen and Galilee Basins

With the use of fly-in/fly-out and drive-in/drive-out (FIFO/DIDO) work practices, it is common for resource regions have a large population of non-resident workers who live in the area only while on-shift. This non-resident population is not included in the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ (ABS) official resident population estimates for these areas. To bridge this information gap, Bowen and Galilee Basins non–resident population projections, 2015 to 2021 provides projected numbers of non–resident workers on-shift for local government areas (LGAs) in the Bowen and Galilee Basin regions (Figure 1). The report presents four projection series, based on information provided by industry regarding existing operations and future projects. Data tables to supplement the report are available on the Queensland Government Statistician’s Office (QGSO) website (www.qgso.qld.gov.au).

Key points Key points of this report include: 

The non-resident population of the Bowen Basin was 16,360 persons in June 2014, down from a peak of 25,040 in June 2012. Factors contributing to this fall include completion of construction for new mines, expansion projects and coal seam gas (CSG) projects, as well as mine closures and workforce restructuring.1

In this publication, the Bowen Basin is defined as the LGAs of Banana (S), Central Highlands (R), Isaac (R) and Whitsunday (R) (Bowen only)1. The Galilee Basin comprises the LGA of Barcaldine (R).



Four projection series expect the Bowen Basin’s non-resident population to reach between 14,230 and 14,640 persons by June 2015. The Series A projection, which takes into account the non-resident workforces of existing resource operations and projects that have passed final investment decision (FID), anticipates that the region’s non-resident population will moderate to 13,670 persons by 2021, a level similar to that recorded in 2008 (13,660 persons).



Series B, C and D projections for the Bowen Basin include elements of the proposed Galilee Basin mine, railway and port projects that would occur within the LGAs of Isaac (R) and Whitsunday (R) (Bowen only). Series B, which takes into account projects that have had an Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) approved but have yet to reach FID, expects that the Bowen Basin’s non-resident population will increase substantially from 2016, peaking at 20,040 persons in 2018 before falling to 18,380 persons by 2021.



Series C, which includes consideration of projects that have yet to finalise an EIS process, anticipates an increase to 20,520 persons in 2018, falling to 19,750 persons in 2021. Series D, which includes projects in the early stages of planning, projects the non-resident population to increase to 21,560 persons by 2021.



Under all four projection series, the non-resident population of Isaac (R) will decline from 11,090 in 2015 to between 9,530 and 9,800 persons by June 2015. Series A anticipates that the non-resident population of Isaac (R) will then slowly decrease to 9,230 persons by 2021, while the Series B, C and D projections anticipate a return to growth in 2016. The latter scenarios envisage that the LGA’s non-resident population could increase to between 13,450 and 15,130 persons by 2021, driven largely by the construction workforces for proposed coal mines, gas and infrastructure projects.



Development of large greenfield mining projects, rail and power infrastructure in the Galilee Basin would see the non-resident population of Barcaldine (R) increase substantially to a peak of around 3,260 persons in 2021 (Series B projection), and 3,270 persons in 2020 (Series D projection).

1

Whitsunday (R) (Bowen only) comprises the statistical areas level 2 (SA2s) of Bowen and Collinsville, which cover the area of former Bowen Shire.

Bowen and Galilee Basins future influences The Bowen Basin is Queensland’s major coal mining region, with 42 surface and underground coal operations and one metalliferous mine in production as at January 2015 (Table 7, pages 10–11). One new coal project (Drake Coal) commenced operations during the preceding year, producing first coal in September 2014. Two coal mining projects (Grosvenor Coal Project and Eagle Downs Coal Project) are currently under construction in the region. The non-resident population of the Bowen Basin was 16,360 persons in June 2014, a fall of 6,540 from the preceding year 2. This fall in the non-resident population continued the downward trend that began in 2012–13, influenced by completion of coal and gas construction projects, closures of operating mines and workforce restructuring. Industry announcements made in late 2014 indicate that further rationalisation of the Bowen Basin’s mining workforces will occur in 2015 (ABC, 2014), as operators adjust to “difficult market conditions” (Glencore, 2014a). Two mine closures are foreshadowed—Isaac Plains mine, which will cease production in early 2015 (QRC, 2014), and Newlands Underground mine, which will reach the end of its mine life in late 2015 (Glencore, 2014b). Balanced against these losses, a number of proposed resource projects and infrastructure developments located in the Bowen Basin have had an EIS approved by the Queensland Government but are awaiting FID. These include:    

ten greenfield coal mines, most notably the large Carmichael Coal and Byerwen Coal projects two new rail projects (Carmichael Rail and North Galilee Basin Rail) Arrow Energy’s proposed Bowen Gas project and Bowen Pipeline project two Abbot Point port developments associated with the Carmichael Coal project and the Alpha Coal/Kevin’s Corner projects.

In addition to these, other announced projects are progressing through the EIS process. Should they proceed to FID as planned, these projects will contribute substantially to the Bowen Basin’s non-resident population out to 2021. The Galilee Basin is an extensive coal resource in central western Queensland, extending north from the LGA of Barcaldine (R) through the LGA of Isaac (R) (Figure 2). Several large coal mines and associated infrastructure are proposed for the Galilee Basin, including:   

four greenfield mines in Barcaldine (R)—Alpha Coal, Kevin’s Corner, China First and South Galilee Coal—which have been approved but are awaiting FID rail proposals linked to these mines, which will occur in Barcaldine (R) as well as the Bowen Basin LGAs of Isaac (R) and Whitsunday (R) two power projects (Galilee Basin Transmission Project and Galilee Basin Power Station Project) in Barcaldine (R).

The mines proposed for the Galilee Basin are large, both in terms of coal production and workforces required. Given the remoteness of these mines, project proponents have indicated that they will largely utilise FIFO workforces during construction and operational phases.

Projection methodology QGSO’s 2015 to 2021 non–resident population projection methodology comprises four different series, which represent a range of possible outcomes arising from the future development of resource projects and operations in the Bowen and Galilee Basins. Each series estimates the cumulative non-resident population that would be present in each LGA at 30 June of each year to 2021, should the operations and projects listed in each category proceed according to advised timeframes and workforce numbers.2 Users of these projections should note that there is a degree of uncertainty about the likelihood of these projects proceeding as assumed, and as such the projections should be regarded as being indicative scenarios rather than probabilistic predictions. QGSO does not advocate any of the projection series as being the most likely or favoured outcome. See caveats on page 12 of this report for further details. The four projection series are based on the workforces of operations and projects at the time of preparation. Projects are categorised and included in each scenario according to their standing in the EIS process3. 

Series A projection is based on the number of non–resident workers on-shift who were engaged in existing resource operations and associated infrastructure activities in the area at June 2014. The projection takes into account future changes to those operational workforces as advised by resource company sources, as well as the estimated non–resident construction and operational workforces of Category A projects (i.e. those that had reached FID) at the time of preparation.



Series B projection includes the Series A projection plus projected growth in the non-resident population arising from Category B projects (those that have an EIS approved but have yet to reach FID).



Series C projection includes the Series A and B projections, plus the projected growth in the non-resident population arising from Category C projects (those that have lodged an EIS, but have yet to proceed through to final approval).

2 3

See the Bowen Basin population report, 2014 http://www.qgso.qld.gov.au/products/reports/bowen-basin-pop-report/index.php. The projections also include some projects where an EIS is not or may not be mandatory.

Bowen and Galilee Basins non–resident population projections, 2015 to 2021

2



Series D projection includes Series A, B and C projections, plus the projected growth in the non-resident population from Category D projects (those that have yet to publish an EIS, including projects that have lodged an Initial Advice Statement (IAS) as well as projects that have yet to begin the approvals process).

Where FID for an approved project has been delayed indefinitely by the proponent, it is not possible to give consideration to its indicative workforce data or project sequencing in the QGSO projections. Such projects, along with other projects that are dependent on them in order to commence, are designated as Category E and are not included in any of the four projection series. A full list of existing operations and projects included in each category is available in Table 7 (pages 10–11), and a map of future projects in the Bowen and Galilee Basins is shown in Figure 2. (a)

Figure 2: Selected future projects , Bowen and Galilee Basins

(a) Includes coal and LNG pipeline projects. Does not include rail, gas field and other infrastructure projects. Does not include existing operations. Future project status is current as at January 2015. See Table 7 (pages 10–11) for a full list of existing operations and future projects by project category. Source: QGSO, 2015


3

Projected non–resident workers on-shift, Bowen Basin Rapid expansion of coal mining activity in the Bowen Basin, coupled with the use of FIFO/DIDO workforces, saw the region’s non-resident population increase to a peak of 25,040 persons in June 2012 (Figure 3). Particularly strong growth occurred between 2010 and 2012, driven by construction of new mines and mine expansions, associated infrastructure development and flood recovery work. From 2013 to 2014, a downturn in the number of non–resident workers on-shift was temporarily offset by the presence of construction crews building pipeline and surface infrastructure for CSG projects based in the neighbouring Surat Basin. Completion of mine and CSG construction activity, mine closures and coal industry restructuring saw the Bowen Basin’s non-resident population fall to 16,360 persons in June 2014. Four projection series are presented for the Bowen Basin. All four series expect that the region’s non-resident population will continue to fall in the short term as a result of announced workforce reductions and mine closures, reaching between 14,230 and 14,640 persons by June 2015 (Table 1). The Series A projection then anticipates that the number of non–resident workers on-shift will moderate to 13,670 persons by 2021, similar to that recorded in 2008 (13,660 persons). From 2015, projection Series B, C and D foresee overall growth in the Bowen Basin’s non-resident population. Series B projects an increase to 20,040 persons in 2018, followed by a gradual decline to 18,140 persons in 2020, then a small increase to 18,380 persons in 2021. This series takes account of several Bowen Basin mines that have been approved but are yet to reach FID, as well as the rail and port elements of Galilee Basin projects that will influence Isaac (R) and Whitsunday (R), and Arrow Energy’s LNG pipeline projects. Series C, which includes further coal projects, the Nathan Dam and Pipelines Project and Santos GLNG Gas Field Development, anticipates an increase to 20,520 persons in 2018, before tapering off to 19,220 persons in 2020, then increasing to 19,750 persons in 2021. The Series D projection, which includes a number of coal projects in preliminary planning stages plus the impacts of the Central Queensland Integrated Rail Project, would see the non-resident population reach 21,280 persons in 2018, then a slight dip followed by further growth to 21,560 persons in 2021.

Figure 3: Past and projected non–resident workers on-shift, Bowen Basin Non-resident workers on-shift

Persons

Series A

Series B

Series C

Series D

30,000 Estimated

Projected

25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

Source: QGSO estimates, 2006 to 2014; QGSO projections, 2015 to 2021

Table 1: Projected non–resident workers on-shift, Bowen Basin Number of non–resident workers on-shift at 30 June Estimated Projection series

Projected

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

Series A

16,360

14,230

14,310

14,090

13,650

13,680

13,720

13,670

Series B

16,360

14,550

17,770

19,830

20,040

19,050

18,140

18,380

Series C

16,360

14,640

18,030

20,260

20,520

19,710

19,220

19,750

Series D

16,360

14,640

18,180

20,650

21,280

20,330

20,500

21,560

Figures in all tables have been rounded to the nearest 10; see notes for details. Source: QGSO estimates, 2014; QGSO projections, 2015 to 2021


4

Banana (S) The LGA of Banana (S) had three coal mines in production at January 2015 (Table 7, pages 10–11). The presence of large construction workforces of CSG pipeline and gas field development projects saw the LGA’s non-resident population temporarily grow from 1,590 persons in June 2012 to a peak of 2,750 persons in June 2013, before declining to 1,430 persons in June 2014. With most CSG-related construction substantially completed by the end of 2014, the non-resident population of Banana (S) is expected to decline further by mid-2015 (Figure 4). Three projection series are presented for Banana (S), which see the non-resident population falling to between 1,020 and 1,050 persons in June 2015 (Table 2). Series A projects the non-resident population of Banana (S) to increase slightly and stabilise at 1,070 persons from 2016 onwards. This series largely reflects the non-resident workforces associated with ongoing coal mining operations in the LGA, and marks a return to a similar non-resident population to that recorded in 2008 (1,090 persons). The Series B projection also expects the number of non–resident workers on-shift to reach 1,070 persons in 2016, increasing to 1,460 persons in 2018, then returning to 1,070 persons thereafter. This series is largely influenced by the non–resident construction workforce of Arrow Energy’s Surat to Gladstone Pipeline Project, as well as Stage One of the Wiggins Island Rail Project. According to Series C, the non-resident population of Banana (S) will increase from around 1,100 persons in 2016 and 2017 to reach 1,480 persons in 2018, before settling at 1,380 persons in 2020 and 2021. This series reflects the additional impact of the Baralaba North Continued Operations Project and Nathan Dam and Pipelines Project. There is no Series D projection for Banana (S), as there are no future projects in Category D. None of the projection series for Banana (S) include consideration of the Surat Basin Rail Project, which is on hold indefinitely, or the Taroom Coal Project, which is dependent upon this infrastructure. These projects are classified as Category E (refer Table 7, pages 10–11).

Figure 4: Past and projected non–resident workers on-shift, Banana (S) Persons

Non-resident workers on-shift

Series A

Series B

Series C

3,000 Estimated

Projected

2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021


Table 2: Projected non–resident workers on-shift, Banana (S) Number of non–resident workers on-shift at 30 June Estimated Projection series

(a)

Projected

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

Series A

1,430

1,020

1,070

1,070

1,070

1,070

1,070

1,070

Series B

1,430

1,030

1,070

1,070

1,460

1,070

1,070

1,070

Series C

1,430

1,050

1,110

1,100

1,480

1,270

1,380

1,380

(a) There is no Series D projection for Banana (S). Source: QGSO estimates, 2014; QGSO projections, 2015 to 2021


5

Central Highlands (R) In January 2015, there were 11 coal mining operations in the LGA of Central Highlands (R) (Table 7, pages 10–11), along with several rail and CSG projects that were under construction. The non-resident population of Central Highlands experienced strong growth from 2010 to 2012, largely due to sizeable construction workforces associated with mine expansion projects, CSG pipeline projects and post-flood reconstruction work. After peaking at 5,580 persons in June 2012 (Figure 5), the number of non–resident workers on-shift in Central Highlands (R) fell to 3,380 persons by June 2014. This decline in the region’s non-resident population was due in part to completion of construction activity, along with mine closures and workforce restructuring. Four projection series are presented for Central Highlands (R), all of which project a continued fall in the LGA’s non-resident population to between 3,230 and 3,340 persons by June 2015. The Series A projection, which accounts largely for existing operational and project construction workforces, shows a gradual decline in the non-resident population from 2015, with the number of non–resident workers on-shift stabilising at 2,850 persons in 2019 and beyond. The Series B, C and D projections mainly reflect the growth influences of new coal mine and CSG proposals. The Series B projection, which includes five approved coal projects, the Bowen Gas Project, and Galilee Basin Transmission Project, anticipates the non-resident population of Central Highlands (R) to increase to just under 4,000 persons in 2016 and 2017, before declining to 3,330 persons in 2018 and settling thereafter. Series C factors in the workforce impacts of three coal projects and the Santos GLNG Gas Field Development, which are still progressing though the EIS process. Under this scenario, the non-resident population of Central Highlands (R) is expected to grow to 4,180 persons in 2016, before declining to 3,630 in 2019, then increasing to 4,190 by 2021. The workforces of four additional coal projects are taken into account under the Series D projection. According to this series, the number of non–resident workers on-shift in Central Highlands (R) would reach 4,360 persons in 2017, and 4,520 in 2021.

Figure 5: Past and projected non–resident workers on-shift, Central Highlands (R) Non-resident workers on-shift

Persons

Series A

Series B

Series C

Series D

7,000 Estimated

Projected

6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021


Table 3: Projected non–resident workers on-shift, Central Highlands (R) Number of non–resident workers on-shift at 30 June Estimated

Projected

Projection series

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

Series A

3,380

3,230

3,110

3,040

2,880

2,850

2,850

2,850

Series B

3,380

3,280

3,960

3,920

3,330

3,330

3,330

3,330

Series C

3,380

3,340

4,180

4,170

3,660

3,630

3,900

4,190

Series D

3,380

3,340

4,340

4,360

4,100

4,020

4,190

4,520

Source: QGSO estimates, 2014; QGSO projections, 2015 to 2021


6

Isaac (R) With 24 coal mining operations active at January 2015, and a further two coal mine projects under construction (Table 7, pages 10–11), Isaac (R) has the largest non-resident population of all Bowen Basin LGAs. This population increased steeply from 9,900 persons in June 2010 to a peak of 17,130 persons in June 2012 (Figure 6), driven largely by the large construction workforces of new mining projects and expansions to existing operations. With most of this construction activity completed in 2013–14, the number of non–resident workers on-shift in the LGA fell to 11,090 persons by June 2014. Numbers were further reduced during this period by mine closures and workforce restructuring. Four projection series are presented for Isaac (R), which expect the LGA’s non-resident population to fall to between 9,530 and 9,800 persons by June 2015 (Table 4). Further mine closures and announced workforce reductions will account for much of this predicted downturn. The Series A projection, which is based on changes to the non-resident workforces of existing operations as well as projects under construction, anticipates that the non-resident population of Isaac (R) will slowly decline to 9,230 persons by 2021, similar to the non-resident population level recorded in 2008 (9,380 persons). Series B, C and D all project the non-resident population of Isaac (R) to increase after 2015. The Series B projection, which takes into account construction of the Arrow Bowen Pipeline Project and five new coal mines, including the large Carmichael Coal Project, along with associated rail and power infrastructure projects, represents the major growth trend. Series B projects the non-resident population to reach 14,040 persons in 2018 and 13,450 persons in 2021, following a slight decline in 2020. Series C follows a similar trajectory to Series B, factoring in the additional influences of two coal projects from 2017 onward. Under this scenario, the non-resident population of Isaac (R) would reach a peak of 14,180 persons in 2018 before falling to 13,640 persons by 2021. The Series D projection, representing the cumulative growth of all projects in the development pipeline (including five additional coal projects), anticipates that the non-resident population would grow to 15,130 persons in 2021.

Figure 6: Past and projected non–resident workers on-shift, Isaac (R) Non-resident workers on-shift

Persons

Series A

Series B

Series C

Series D

20,000 Estimated

18,000

Projected

16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021


Table 4: Projected non–resident workers on-shift, Isaac (R) Number of non–resident workers on-shift at 30 June Estimated Projection series

Projected

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

Series A

11,090

9,530

9,650

9,520

9,190

9,240

9,280

9,230

Series B

11,090

9,800

10,990

13,440

14,040

13,690

13,210

13,450

Series C

11,090

9,800

10,990

13,590

14,180

13,850

13,400

13,640

Series D

11,090

9,800

10,990

13,790

14,510

14,090

14,390

15,130

Source: QGSO estimates, 2014; QGSO projections, 2015 to 2021


7

Whitsunday (R) (Bowen only) In January 2015, there were four coal mines and one metalliferous mine operating in Whitsunday (R) (Bowen only), along with the Port of Abbot Point (Table 7, pages 10–11). The Collinsville coal mine, which closed temporarily in September 2013, has since resumed operations, while Drake Coal achieved operational status and produced first coal in 2014. The area’s non-resident population, which reached a peak of just over 700 persons in 2012, was 470 persons in June 2014 (Figure 7). Two projection series are presented for Whitsunday (R) (Bowen only). Under both series, the non-resident population is expected to fall slightly to 440 persons in June 2015 (Table 5), largely due to completion of the construction phase of the Drake mine. From 2015 onwards, changes to the size of the non-resident population in the Series A projection are mainly influenced by fluctuations in workforce numbers of existing mines in the area. Under this series, the number of non–resident workers on-shift is projected to reach 470 in 2017, before settling at 520 persons from 2018. Substantially higher growth is predicted under the Series B projection. This series reflects the influence of FIFO/DIDO workforces associated with the construction of rail and port components of proposed Galilee Basin coal projects, as well as the Bowen Gas Project. Given the temporary nature of construction workforces and the largely resident operational workforces of these projects, their impact on the non-resident population of Whitsunday (R) (Bowen only) will be short-lived rather than sustained. Series B anticipates that the non-resident population of Whitsunday (R) (Bowen only) will increase sharply to 1,750 persons in 2016, before falling back to 530 persons in 2020. There are no Series C or D projections for Whitsunday (R) (Bowen only), as there are no future projects in these categories.

Figure 7: Past and projected non–resident workers on-shift, Whitsunday (R) (Bowen only) Non-resident workers on-shift

Persons

Series A

Series B

2,000 Estimated

1,800

Projected

1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021


Table 5: Projected non–resident workers on-shift, Whitsunday (R) (Bowen only) Number of non–resident workers on-shift at 30 June Estimated Projection series

(a)

Projected

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

Series A

470

440

490

470

520

520

520

520

Series B

470

440

1,750

1,400

1,200

960

530

540

(a) There are no Series C or Series D projections for Whitsunday (R) (Bowen only). Source: QGSO estimates, 2014; QGSO projections, 2015 to 2021


8

Projected non–resident workers on-shift, Galilee Basin The Galilee Basin coal measure spans a number of LGAs, including Barcaldine (R) to the south and the Bowen Basin LGA of Isaac (R)4. While there are no coal mines currently operating or under construction in the Galilee Basin, several large mines and associated rail projects are planned for the area covered by both LGAs. The following projections refer only to the non-resident population of the Galilee Basin projects that will occur in Barcaldine (R). Three projection series are provided for Barcaldine (R). The Series A projection (Table 6) reflects the baseline non-resident population that has been estimated in the area each year since 2010, and which declined to around 50 persons in 2014 (Figure 8). This small population, which largely comprises crews involved in ongoing resource industry exploration and testing, is not expected to increase substantially prior to commencement of any major project. The Series B projection includes projects that have an EIS approved but have yet to reach FID. These include Hancock Coal’s Alpha Coal Project mine and railway; Hancock Galilee’s Kevin’s Corner Coal Project; Waratah Coal’s China First Project mine and railway; and AMCI’s South Galilee Coal Project. It also includes Powerlink’s Galilee Basin Transmission Project. The Series B projection, which is influenced by the presence of large construction workforces for these projects, foresees a rapid increase in Barcaldine (R)’s non-resident population, reaching a peak of 3,260 persons in 2021. The Series D projection includes the additional influences of the Central Queensland Integrated Rail Project and Galilee Basin Power Station, which have yet to publish an EIS. According to this scenario the number of non–resident workers on-shift in Barcaldine (R) would peak at 3,270 persons in 2020. There is no Series C projection for Barcaldine (R) as there are no future projects in Category C (those that have lodged an EIS, but have yet to proceed through to final approval).

Figure 8: Past and projected non–resident workers on-shift, Barcaldine (R) Persons

Non-resident workers on-shift

Series A

Series B

Series D

3,500 Estimated

Projected

3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021


Table 6: Projected non–resident workers on-shift, Barcaldine (R) Number of non–resident workers on-shift at 30 June Estimated Projection series

Projected

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

Series A

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

Series B

50

150

230

1,490

1,810

2,490

3,070

3,260

Series D

50

150

230

1,640

2,020

2,840

3,270

3,260

(a) There is no Series C projection for Barcaldine (R). Source: QGSO estimates, 2014; QGSO projections, 2015 to 2021

4

For the purposes of this publication and population projections, the Galilee Basin is defined as Barcaldine (R). Where the population impacts of Galilee Basin projects will occur in Isaac (R) and Whitsunday (R) (Bowen only), they are included in projections for the Bowen Basin.


9

Table 7: Resource operations and future projects, Bowen and Galilee Basins (a)

Category

Project / operation name

Company name

LGA

A

Abbot Point Bulk Coal

Mundra Port

Whitsunday (R) (Bowen only)

A

Baralaba mine

Cockatoo Coal

Banana (S)

A

Blackwater mine

BMA

Central Highlands (R)

A

Broadmeadow mine

BMA

Isaac (R)

A

Burton mine

Peabody Energy Australia

Isaac (R)

A

Callide mine

Anglo American

Banana (S)

A

Capcoal Operations (German Creek mines)

Anglo American

Isaac (R)

A

Carborough Downs mine

Vale Australia

Isaac (R)

A

Caval Ridge mine

BMA

Isaac (R)

A

Clermont mine

GS Coal

Isaac (R)

A

Collinsville mine

Glencore Coal


A

Cook mine

Cook Resources


A

Coppabella mine


Isaac (R)

A

Cows Coal mine

QCoal


A

Crinum mine

BMA


A

Curragh mine

Wesfarmers Resources


A

Daunia mine

BMA

Isaac (R)

A

Dawson mine

Anglo American

Banana (S)

A

Drake Coal

Drake Coal


A

Eaglefield / North Goonyella mine


Isaac (R)

A

Ensham mine

Ensham Resources


A

Foxleigh mine

Anglo American

Isaac (R)

A

Goonyella Riverside mine

BMA

Isaac (R)

A

Grasstree mine

Anglo American

Isaac (R)

A

Hail Creek mine

Rio Tinto Coal Australia

Isaac (R)

A

Isaac Plains mine

Vale Australia, Sumitomo

Isaac (R)

A

Jellinbah mine

Jellinbah Mining


A

Kestrel mine

Queensland Coal


A

Lake Vermont mine

Lake Vermont Resources

Isaac (R)

A

Middlemount mine

Middlemount Coal

Isaac (R)

A

Millennium mine


Isaac (R)

A

Minerva mine

Sojitz Coal Mining


A

Moorvale mine


Isaac (R)

A

Moranbah Explosives Plant

Incitec Pivot

Isaac (R)

A

Moranbah Gas Project

Arrow Energy

Isaac (R)

A

Moranbah North mine

Anglo American

Isaac (R)

A

Mt Carlton gold mine

Evolution Mining


A

Nebo Rail Maintenance Facility

Pacific National

Isaac (R)

A

Newlands surface and underground mines

Glencore Coal

Isaac (R)

A

Oaky Creek surface and underground mines

Glencore Coal


A

Peak Downs mine

BMA

Isaac (R)

A

Poitrel mine

BHP Mitsui Coal

Isaac (R)

A

Rolleston mine

Glencore Coal


A

Saraji mine

BMA

Isaac (R)

A

Sonoma mine

Sonoma Mine Management


A

South Walker Creek mine

BHP Mitsui Coal

Isaac (R)

A

Yarrabee mine

Yancoal Australia


A

Eagle Downs Coal Project

Eagle Downs Coal Management

Isaac (R)

A

Gladstone Liquefied Natural Gas Project

Santos GLNG

Central Highlands (R), Maranoa (R), Western Downs (R)

Existing operations

Future projects


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Category(a)

Project / operation name

Company name

LGA

A

Grosvenor Coal Project

Anglo American

Isaac (R)

A

Wiggins Island Rail Project, Stage One – sub-projects 4 and 5

Aurizon Holdings

Central Highlands (R), Rockhampton (R)

B

Abbot Point Coal Terminal Expansion (T0)

Adani Mining


B

Abbot Point Coal Terminal Expansion (T3)

Hancock Coal Infrastructure


B

Alpha Coal Project – mine

Hancock Coal

Barcaldine (R)

B

Alpha Coal Project– railway

Hancock Coal Infrastructure

Barcaldine (R), Isaac (R), Whitsunday (R) (Bowen only)

B

Arrow Bowen Pipeline Project

Arrow Energy

Isaac (R), Rockhampton (R), Gladstone (R)

B

Bluff Coal Project

Carabella Resources


B

Bowen Gas Project

Arrow Energy

Central Highlands (R), Isaac (R), Whitsunday (R) (Bowen only)

B

Byerwen Coal Project

Byerwen Coal

Isaac (R)

B

Carmichael Coal Project – mine

Adani Mining

Isaac (R)

B

Carmichael Coal Project – railway

Adani Mining

Isaac (R)

B

China First Project – mine

Waratah Coal

Barcaldine (R)

B

China First Project – railway

Waratah Coal

Barcaldine (R), Isaac (R), Whitsunday (R) (Bowen only)

B

Codrilla Coal Mine Project


Isaac (R)

B

Ellensfield Coal Project

Rio Doce Australia

Isaac (R)

B

Galilee Basin Transmission Project

Powerlink

Barcaldine (R), Central Highlands (R), Isaac (R)

B

Kevin's Corner Coal Project

Hancock Galilee

Barcaldine (R)

B

Meteor Downs South Project

U&D Mining


B

Minyango Project

Blackwater Coal


B

Moranbah South Project

Anglo American

Isaac (R)

B

North Galilee Basin Rail Project

Adani Mining

Isaac (R), Whitsunday (R) (Bowen only)

B

South Galilee Coal Project

AMCI and Alpha Coal Management

Barcaldine (R)

B

Springsure Creek Coal Project

Springsure Creek Coal


B

Surat to Gladstone Pipeline Project

Arrow Energy

Banana (S), Western Downs (R), Gladstone (R)

B

Washpool Hard Coking Coal Project

Aquila Resources


B

Wiggins Island Rail Project, Stage One – sub-project 8

Aurizon Holdings

Banana (S)

C

Baralaba North Continued Operations Project

Cockatoo Coal

Banana (S)

C

Nathan Dam and Pipelines Project

SunWater

Banana (S)

C

New Lenton Project

New Hope Group

Isaac (R)

C

Red Hill Mining Lease Project

BMA

Isaac (R)

C

Rolleston Coal Expansion Project

Glencore Coal


C

Santos GLNG Gas Field Development

Santos GLNG

Central Highlands (R), Maranoa (R)

C

Taroborah Coal Project

Shenhuo International Group


C

Teresa Coal Project

New Emerald Coal


D

Belview Coking Coal Project

Stanmore Coal


D

Broughton Coal Mine Project

U&D Mining

Isaac (R)

D

Central Queensland Integrated Rail Project

Aurizon Holdings

Barcaldine (R), Isaac (R)

D

China Stone Coal Project

Macmines Australia

Isaac (R)

D

Dingo West Project

Dingo West Coal


D

Galilee Basin Power Station

Waratah Coal

Barcaldine (R)

D

Grosvenor West Project

Carabella Resources

Isaac (R)

D

Hail Creek Transition Project

Rio Tinto Coal Australia

Isaac (R)

D

Hillalong Coal Project

Shandong Energy

Isaac (R)

D

Mackenzie Coal Project

Moreton Resources


D

Wilton Coal Project

Wilton Coking Coal


E

Surat Basin Rail Project

Surat Basin Rail

Banana (S), Western Downs (R)

E

Taroom Coal Project

New Hope Group

Banana (S)

(a) The five categories include existing operations and future projects, grouped according to their status in the EIS process as at January 2015. See methodology (page 2) and caveats (page 12) for further details. Source: QGSO, 2015


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Caveats QGSO’s non–resident population projections provide an estimate of the number of non–resident workers on-shift by LGA. They are based on the on-shift non–resident worker population estimates established in previous years and take into account future workforce growth arising from resource industry and infrastructure projects planned for the region, as reported directly by resource companies. Projections are based on the best available data and advice at the time of preparation. Numbers of non–resident workers on-shift are projected for the period to 2021 only, as it is considered that the reliability of information regarding future projects diminishes considerably beyond that point. Projected numbers of non–resident workers on-shift presented in this report represent an estimate for 30 June of the indicated year. Temporary peaks and falls in project workforces may occur in between these mid-year estimates for successive years. The four projection series represent a range of possible outcomes based on the status of projects in the EIS process at the time of production in January 2015 (see the projection methodology, page 2, for further details). These outcomes are subject to change over time as projects proceed through the approvals process. Projections reflect the cumulative impacts of multiple projects at a given point in time, and changes to any individual project will affect the projected cumulative outcome. Series D projections include projects that are in the early stages of planning and that have yet to proceed to a published EIS. Workforce data and indicative start dates provided to QGSO for these projects are preliminary company estimates, which may not be publicly available. Both estimated workforce numbers and project timeframes are subject to change during the course of project planning. As such, Series D projections should be regarded as having a higher degree of uncertainty than the other three series. Category E comprises projects that have completed the approvals process but where FID has been delayed indefinitely, as well as other projects that are dependent on the commencement of projects in this category. As no indicative timeframes were available at the time of preparation they could not be allocated to a projection series. Changes in the status of these projects could substantially alter any or all of the possible outcomes represented by the four projection series. The projections reflect certain assumptions about the likelihood of projects advancing according to advised commencement dates, sequencing of project stages and timing of workforce peaks. Changes to any of these factors can make a significant difference to the cumulative non-resident workforce at a given point in time, particularly during construction phases. Short-term influences such as extreme weather events, industrial action and supply chain delays can all result in changes to project scheduling and to these projections. QGSO does not advocate any one series as being the most likely or favoured outcome and users should consider the assumptions affecting each potential scenario. Given the volatile nature of the resource sector and the inherent uncertainty about the likelihood of projects proceeding as indicated, these projections should be considered as being indicative of the range of potential outcomes rather than literal accounts of future growth. Notes (R) – Regional Council

(S) – Shire

Non-resident workers are people who fly-in/fly-out or drive-in/drive-out (FIFO/DIDO) to work and live in the area temporarily while rostered on, and who have their usual place of residence elsewhere. Non-resident workers include FIFO/DIDO mining and gas industry employees and contractors, construction workers and associated sub-contractors. Figures in this report refer to the number of non–resident workers on-shift, or present in the area at a given point in time, and should not be confused with total non–resident workforce numbers. The population impacts of Galilee Basin projects located in Isaac (R) are included in projections for the Bowen Basin rather than the Galilee Basin. Similarly, most of the rail and port construction and operations activities for the Galilee Basin projects will take place in the Bowen Basin LGAs of Isaac (R) and Whitsunday (R) (Bowen only), rather than in Barcaldine (R). Data in this report are derived from surveys conducted by QGSO in 2014 and other sources. The Survey of Accommodation Providers counted the number of non–resident workers on-shift during the last week of June 2014. See the Bowen Basin population report, 2014 http://www.qgso.qld.gov.au/products/reports/bowen-basin-pop-report/index.php for further details. The Resource Operations Employment Survey and the Resource Projects Employment Survey gathered workforce information from all resource companies with existing operations or future projects in the Bowen and Galilee Basins as at June 2014. A full list of existing operations and future projects is available in Table 7 of this report. The total number of non–resident workers on-shift for the Bowen Basin represents the aggregate non-resident populations of all LGAs in the region. This total may include a small number of non-resident workers in each LGA who live elsewhere within the Bowen Basin. Figures in tables have been rounded to the nearest 10. As a result of rounding, discrepancies may occur between sums of the component items and totals. Percentages and other calculations are made prior to rounding of figures and discrepancies might therefore exist between these calculations and those that could be derived from the rounded figures. Data tables to supplement this report are available on-line at http://www.qgso.qld.gov.au/products/tables/index.php. References ABC (2014) BMA cuts 700 jobs at its Central Queensland mines, 23 September 2014 http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-09-23/bma-mine-joblosses/5762766 Glencore (2014a) Glencore confirms cutbacks at Newlands open cut coal mine 12 August 2014 (unpublished) Glencore (2014b) Glencore outlines closure plan for Newlands Northern Underground Mine 22 May 2014 (unpublished) QRC (2014) QRC responds to Isaac Plains job losses, 30 September 2014 https://www.qrc.org.au/01_cms/details.asp?ID=3526 Queensland Government Statistician’s Office Queensland Treasury http://www.qgso.qld.gov.au/

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