Abstract - This paper deals with the modeling, simulation and experiments on a medium power induction motor which have rotor faults. The model presented ...
%52.(1%$56',$*126,62)530.:,1'8&7,2102725 &203$5,62102'(/,=$7,21$1'0($685(0(17 2)3+$6(&855(176 /%DJKOL 0HPEHU,((( +5D]LN 0HPEHU,((( $5H]]RXJ 0HPEHU,((( &&DLURQL 0HPEHU,(((
/'XUDQWD\ 0HPEHU,((( 0$NGLP
*URXSHGH5HFKHUFKHHQ(OHFWURWHFKQLTXHHW(OHFWURQLTXHGH1DQF\)DFXOWpGHVVFLHQFHV%3 9DQGRHXYUHOqV1DQF\)UDQFH
(TXLSHGH5HFKHUFKHHQ,QWHUIDFHV1XPpULTXHV8QLYHUVLWp+3RLQFDUp5XH-HDQ/DPRXU9DQGRHXYUHOqV1DQF\)UDQFH
$/67200RWHXUV5HVHDUFK 'HYHORSPHQW'HSDUWPHQW5XH2EHUOLQ%3 1DQF\)UDQFH
$EVWUDFW 7KLV SDSHU GHDOV ZLWK WKH PRGHOLQJ VLPXODWLRQ DQG H[SHULPHQWV RQ D PHGLXP SRZHU LQGXFWLRQ PRWRU ZKLFK KDYHURWRUIDXOWV7KHPRGHOSUHVHQWHGKHUHLVDWUDQVLHQWPRGHO RIWKHVLQJOHFDJHLQGXFWLRQPRWRU7KHGHWDLOHGHTXDWLRQVRIWKH V\VWHP DUH GHYHORSHG DQG H[SODLQHG DV ZHOO DV WKH HOHFWURPDJQHWLF SDUDPHWHUV XVHG 7KH PRGHO WDNHV LQWR DFFRXQW URWRU EURNHQ EDUV DQG HQGULQJ IDXOWV 7KH DVVXPSWLRQV PDGH DQG WKH PHWKRG XVHG WR GHWHFW URWRU IDXOWV DUH GLVFXVVHG 7HVWV KDYH EHHQ SHUIRUPHG RQ USP ± N: LQGXFWLRQ PRWRU ZLWK &KURPH &RSSHU VTXLUUHO FDJH LQWHQWLRQDOO\ GDPDJHG 7KH H[SHULPHQWV PHWKRGRORJ\ LV SUHVHQWHG LQ GHWDLOV 7LPH VLJQDOV DQG))7RISKDVHFXUUHQWVDQGEHDULQJYLEUDWLRQVDUHSUHVHQWHG IRU VLJQLILFDQW URWRU GHIHFWV 6LPXODWLRQV XVLQJ WKLV PRGHO DUH FRPSDUHG WR H[SHULPHQWV RQ D PHGLXP SRZHU LQGXFWLRQ PRWRU N: I ndex terms ,QGXFWLRQ PRWRU GLDJQRVLV PRGHOLQJ EURNHQ EDUVIDXOWGHWHFWLRQYLEUDWLRQPHGLXPSRZHU
,,1752'8&7,21
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«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p Û Ë , FRVÌ Sq - P % q = m Ü p HS Ý Í ZKHUHP LVWKHVWDWRUSKDVHQXPEHU
7KHUHIRUH WKH PDLQ IOX[ DQG WKH F\FOLF VWDWRU LQGXFWDQFH DUH 1 F = m 5/, p
/ =
HS
1 / + O = m 5/ + O p HS
r D
" %
#
$
!
,
r 1 - m r % = , D 1 H
p 1
&(' )+*-,.*0/2103547698);:< 69=?>7< :A@CBD198+EF' 4 GIHD>-4KJL12=MH;4KHA=
q
% 5RWRU PQ 7KH URWRU LV UHSUHVHQWHG E\ ILJXUH ZKHUH, NKO LV WKH N PQ URWRUORRS FXUUHQW ,R O WKH N URWRUEDU FXUUHQW VR , Z X = , Y X - , Y UWX V T S
7KHIOX[GHQVLW\GXHWRWKHN URWRUORRSFXUUHQWLVDVVXPHG WREHUHFWDQJXODU ILJXUH 7KHVHOIDQGPXWXDOURWRUORRSLQGXFWDQFHDUHFRPSXWHG 1 ] - m[ \ /] ^ = p/5 PQ
0 aa = -
H
m_ ` p/5 H
1a
,e f cg h i /
, e f cMg m i
,bjf ckg l i
,bjf cg m i
,e c
,e f cg h i
,e c
, b9f cMgKh i ,n c
,e f c5oDh i
,bdc
,n
&(' )+*.p-*0qrHLBD1j< ' 8)s4KJL12=MH;4KHA=t306j)A1
,bjf c5oAh i
~
wx
u z
y
y
× %{ | q /5Gq
u
w
w
y
v y
w
w
p Î Ë m 1 , /5 ÏVLQÌ Sq - P p HS SÐ Í
ZLWK 0 =
}
u z
ÛÞ Üß Ýà
7KH VWDWRUURWRU PXWXDO LQGXFWDQFH EHWZHHQ WKH VWDWRU PQ SKDVHPDQGWKHN URWRUORRSLV p Ë Û 0 M = - 0 M FRVÌq - P + ND Ü
p
z ~
F L
= -
U
1]
F{ |
r r = × %{ | G 6 z = -
& 6WDWRU5RWRU 7KH IOX[ GHQVLW\ SURGXFHGP Q E\ WKH VWDWRU FRLO RI SKDVH P P RU LQGXFHVLQWKHN URWRUORRSWKHIOX[
Í
Ý
m ËDÛ p 1 /5 VLQÌ Ü DQG D = S p HS 1 ÍÝ
' 6WDWRUYROWDJHHTXDWLRQV :H XVH WKH QRQQRUPDOL]HG &ODUN WUDQVIRUPDWLRQ 7 DQG 7 ZKLFKJLYHVabYDOXHVRIVDPHDPSOLWXGHDVDEF:HFDQ SHUIRUP WKH VLPXODWLRQ LQ a b UHIHUHQFH IUDPH ZLWKRXW SHUIRUPLQJDURWDWLRQWUDQVIRUPDWLRQEXWLQWKLVFDVHZHZLOO EH REOLJHG WR UHHYDOXDWH DQG LQYHUVH WKH [ /] PDWUL[ RI WKH G V\VWHP [ / ] [ , ] = [9 ] - [ 5 ][ , ] ZKLFKLVRIGLPHQVLRQ1 GW DWHDFKVLPXODWLRQVWHS 7R OHVVHQ WKH FRPSXWLQJ WLPH ZH SUHIHU HOLPLQDWLQJ WKH q IURP WKH FRXSOLQJ PDWUL[ ,W LV PXFK VLPSOHU WR ZRUN LQ WKH URWRU UHIHUHQFH IUDPH EHFDXVH ZH KDYH RQO\ VWDWRU YDULDEOHV WR WUDQVIRUP 7KHUHIRUH LQ VWHDG\ VWDWH RSHUDWLRQ DOO WKH YDULDEOHV KDYH WKHLU SXOVDWLRQ HTXDOV WR Vw 7KLV LQWURGXFHV DOVR D PHWKRG WR LGHQWLI\ IDXOW\ EURNHQEDUV PDFKLQHV>@ GF F¡ Ëp Û 9 F¡ = 5 , d¡ + w 3Ì ÜF F¡ + GW ÍÝ Î ,ª § Þ Ï M ß ß ÞÎ, ® ¬ Þ Î /¬K¯ ÎL FRV MD LÞ Ï ª« ß , Ï ¬ ª 0 F¬ ® = Ï ßÏ ß ÏL VLQ MD Lß Ð àÏ M ß Ð /¬K¯ à Ð , k¬ à ß Ï ÏÐ , ª ¦ © ¨ ¢¤¥ £ ßà ( 5RWRUYROWDJHHTXDWLRQV °± :LWK WKH DVVXPSWLRQV PDGH LQ WKH N URWRUORRS ZH KDYH ² µ µ ·¸  µ ¸ à ´ ¸ à ¼ ´ µ ¸ ´ ¸ ¼ º ´ ·¸ º Á ´ ·¸ » ¾ À ¼ ½ ½ ¹ Å ¿ Ä ¹ Å ¿ Ä ¹ ¹ º ²³ ¶ · ¶ ·
ZLWK 5Æ;Ç UHVLVWDQFHRIWKHN EDU N 1KÈ °± F ÉFÊ LV WKH URWRU IOX[ LQGXFHG LQ WKH N URWRUORRS E\ DOO WKH URWRUORRSVDQGWKHVWDWRUFRLOV °±
å
Ü
ä
ÌÐ
ðñ
Ú
áâã × á
ÎÌ
ÌÔ
(Õ Ï Î
Ý
à
ï × Ö
ï ×
Ë Ý
Ì
í0îê Ø.Ù Ý
Õ
ÍKÎ
Þ
ÞÕ
Ñ ß
êFë ì
ÌÐ
Ø;Ù
Ò Ú
Ý
)Ü
ÌÌ
Ê Ó õ ç ó
Û
Õ
ÌÓ Ü
Ó èé Ð
× Ö
Ë
Õ Ì
Ë
7KHHQGULQJHTXDWLRQLVJLYHQE\ ø û ú ö Ë 5þ G, þ /þ G, ü ý = -ÌÌ 5þ , þ /þ Ê ü ù 1 GW 1 ÷ GW Í
× Ñ
(Õ Ì ô Ð ç ó ò Ý
Õ
Ì ôÐ
æ
óò
)
x GW z = (& - D y W - Dx W - D w ) GW -
Gq =w GW
) 6LPXODWLRQVRIWZDUH ø û ú ö Û 7KLV V\VWHP KDV EHHQ LPSOHPHQWHG LQWR D VRIWZDUH , ü ÜÜ Ê 0$69(&7>@GHYHORSHGDWWKHODERUDWRU\ ü ÷ ù ý Ý ý ý )LUVWRIDOOWKHPDWUL[>/@LVFRPSXWHGDQGLQYHUWHG$WHDFK VLPXODWLRQ VWHSWKHYROWDJHV9{}| DQG9~5| DUHFRPSXWHGXVLQJ 7KHFRPSOHWHV\VWHPLVWKHQ WKHSRZHUVRXUFHYROWDJHDQGWKHURWRUSRVLWLRQ ,Q WKH PDWUL[ >5@ ZH FDQ IRXQG WKH VSHHG DQG WKH GLIIHUHQW Î , Þ Î9 Þ Î , Þ YDOXHVRIEDUUHVLVWDQFHV Ï , ß Ï9 ß Ï , ß $FFRUGLQJWRWKHVLPXODWLRQHYHQWVWKHEDUUHVLVWDQFHWKDWZH Ï ß Ï ß Ï ß ZDQW WR VLPXODWH WKH EUHDNDJH LV LQFUHDVHG 7KH LQFUHDVLQJ Ï , ß Ï ß Ï , ß DPRXQW VKRXOG EH YHU\ KLJK RQO\ LI ZH FKRRVH D QDUURZ Ï ß Ï ß Ï ß M ß GÏ M ß ÏMß Ï VLPXODWLRQWLPHVWHS'HSHQGLQJRQPDFKLQHSDUDPHWHUVZLWK = [/] Ï - [5] D WLPH VWHS RI V LQFUHDVLQJ WKH URWRU EDU UHVLVWDQFH RI Ï , ß GW , ß Ï M ß Ï ß Ï ß Ï ß PRUH WKDQ WLPHV OHDG WR D QXPHULFDO LQVWDELOLW\ >@ ,Q Ï M ß ÏMß Ï M ß WKH HTXDWLRQ V\VWHP WKH FXUUHQW YDOXHRIWZRDGMDFHQWORRSV Ï, ÿ ß Ï ß Ï, ÿ ß EHFRPH WRR FORVH 1DUURZLQJ WKH VLPXODWLRQ WLPHVWHSDYRLG Ï ß Ï ß Ï ß WKLVSUREOHP ÏÐ , ßà ÏÐ ßà ÏÐ , ßà /HW XV UHPLQG WKDW DFWXDOO\ WKH FXUUHQW LV QHYHU HTXDO WR ZLWK ]HUR,QGHHG>@VKRZWKDWLWLVE\WKHODPLQDWLRQVWKDWIORZV ! . . * * * * " 3%450 ' $ ! . . SDUWRIWKHFXUUHQWZKHQDEDULVEURNHQ,QUHIHUHQFH>@WKH * * * " 0 12 ' $ + + ) ! 6 ) /! " ! " " " ! DXWKRUVHVWLPDWHWKDWLQFUHDVLQJWKHUHVLVWDQFHRIWKHEDUE\ ( ( + + " ! 6 ) / ! " " " ! ! WLPHV JLYHV UHVXOWV WKDW DJUHHV ZLWK WKRVH REWDLQHG LQ
! ( , + #&$ " #%$ " 67 3%450 H[SHULPHQWV ,Q WKLV VWXG\ DFFRUGLQJ WR WKH PDFKLQH 67 0 1 2 + + , SDUDPHWHUV DQG WR WKH WLPH VWHS ZH KDYH FRQVLGHUHG 6 ) / ! + + ) " ! " " " ! ! ( ( LQFUHDVLQJDPRXQWVRIWLPHVWKHLQLWLDOUHVLVWDQFHRIWKH ) ) ! . . * ( ( EDU WR VLPXODWH IXOO EURNHQ EDUV :H DOVR VLPXODWHG SDUWLDO = EURNHQEDUV : U J O N Y\[ ] KML R R R R > GI GH ; G 8 c c U J ; O 8 R R R > N G H VXWZY KML T GI G 7KH VLPXODWLRQ LV SHUIRUPHG E\ VROYLQJ WKH HTXDWLRQ ; c U 8 a Q J cU U U J J J ? E b ? E `C _^ > Eb > E `C A _^ > CD Q 8 CD P ; PA P P V\VWHP WKDQNV WR D IRXUWK RUGHU 5XQJH.XWWD DOJRULWKP 7KH S ; S 8 J @ ; 8 VRIWZDUH DOORZV WKH XVH RI 3:0 SDWWHUQV WR UHIOHFW WKH a S S U U J J J J [] ; S > E `F A _ ^ CD Q ? E F ? E `F A _ ^ > EF 8 P H[SHULPHQWDO XVH RI D YROWDJH IHG LQYHUWHU 7KH VRIWZDUH S ; S 8 ; 8 a SDFNDJHDOVRDOORZVWKHVLPXODWLRQRIPXOWLSOHHYHQWVVXFKDV U U U U ; > J E `C A _^ > J E ` C A a ^ C D Q ? J E ` C A a ^ ? J E ` C A _ ^ > CD Q 8 P P P P P P ; U VSHHG UHIHUHQFH FKDQJHV LQ FRQWURO PRGH VXGGHQ ORDG U J 98 < R > CD Q > CD Q B P P & D W D WD
DQGURWRUUHVLVWDQFHFKDQJHV 7KH HOHFWURPDJQHWLF WRUTXHLV JLYHQ WKDQNV WR WKH GHULYDWLRQ :HKDYHDOVRZRUNHGRQDV\VWHPZKHUHWKHURWRUPDWUL[ RIWKHFRHQHUJ\ LVUHGXFHGWRDGTHTXLYDOHQWRQHWKDQNVWRDJHQHUDOL]HG3DUN d Î M Þ WUDQVIRUPDWLRQ >@ 7KH UHGXFHG V\VWHP VWLOO WDNHV LQWR ÎL - 0 f FRV q + ND LÞ Ï d e ß DFFRXQW WKH FKDUDFWHUL]DWLRQ RI WKH URWRU EDU IDXOW ZLWK WKH d & g = S[, f i\j ] h , q ÏÐL - 0 f VLQ q + ND Lßà Ï ß DSSHDUDQFH RI DGGLWLRQDO WHUPV LQ WKH PDWUL[ 7KLV ODVW ÐÏ M àß EHFRPHV QRQ GLDJRQDO 7KHUHIRUH LW LV XVHIXO IRU IDXOW k m k m Ñ p o á p o GHWHFWLRQXVLQJSDUDPHWHUHVWLPDWLRQ & v = S0 t Ò , u t Ê , q VLQ ND - , st Ê , q FRV ND â r q l n r Ó qln r ã 7KHUHGXFHGV\VWHPLVDOVRXVHGLQYHFWRUFRQWURORIIDXOW\ LQGXFWLRQPRWRUV>@,QWKLVFDVHWKHIDXOWHVWLPDWLRQFDQEH :HKDYHWRDGGWKHPHFKDQLFDOHTXDWLRQVWRJHWWKHURWRU EDVHG RQ WKH DQDO\VLV RI WKH ,~}| FRPSRQHQW RI WKH VWDWRU w VSHHG W = DQGWKHHOHFWULFDOURWRUSRVLWLRQq FXUUHQW7KDQNVWRWKHYHFWRUFRQWUROVFKHPHDQGWRWKH3DUN S LQYHUVH WUDQVIRUPDWLRQ ZH FDQ HDVLO\ DQDO\]H WKLV VLJQDWXUH
ZKLFK PXVW EH FRQVWDQW LQ VWHDG\ KHDOWK\ VWDWH ,I D VSHHG FRQWUROORRSLVLQWHJUDWHGZHZLOOQRWLFHORZIUHTXHQF\ULSSOH RQ ,~}| UHIHUHQFH FXUUHQW GXH WR WKH URWRU GHIHFWV 7KH VSHHG FRQWUROOHU ZLOO WU\ WR FRPSHQVDWH WKH GLVWXUEDQFHV EHFDXVH LW ZLOOYLHZWKHPDVORDGWRUTXHULSSOHRIDSDUWLFXODUIUHTXHQF\ ,,,(;3(5,0(17$/5(68/76 'XULQJ±WHVWVKDYHEHHQSHUIRUPHGRQD USP±N:LQGXFWLRQPRWRUDVGHVFULEHGLQWKHIROORZLQJ WDEOH
¡ ¢£¡ ¤¢¥M¦¨§ª©
«¬¡¨®£¯
%
°µ ÈÒM¸¿Ò ¿ÒZ¥Zξ%µ Èã©Å±ª &µ ¥ZÎºÌ ±X©Õ ·¼¡©Å¥Z®§XÎ
¸¡¹²º²
¡²³¼§ª©Â¥Ã¾Ä´Å &±ª ƥé »
°©±X²³§´}µ ¶·§
£²³¼£§X©½¥¡¾¿¢¥¡À §·´Á »
°¿µ ÈÒM¸¿ÒÕMÒZ¥Zξŵ Èã©Å±ª &µ ¥Zκ ±X©Õ MÌ ¸Ð¼£©Å¥Z®§XÎ
¸£
´\À ¥M &´ ¥¡À ƱÉÈ¡§ Ç
£©&©%§XΡ £¢£¢À ÏоƩŧ·ÑÒ
ʣʣ£ Ç «£ ²º¢ »
Ê£¨Ó¶ »
¡²³¼§ª©½¥¡¾©%¥Z ¥Ã©Ë´\À ¥M &´ÍÌ¡¸ µ ©ÆÈ£±X¢
̹²º²
¥Z²Ôµ αÉÀ´\À µ ¢
ÕMÒ ºÖ
7KH VTXLUUHO FDJHLVPDGHZLWK&KURPH&RSSHUEDUVDQG HQG ULQJV DVVHPEOHG ZLWK VLOYHU EUD]LQJ PDWHULDO ,Q DFFRUGDQFH WR WKH SXUFKDVLQJ VSHFLILFDWLRQ RI $OVWRP 0RWHXUVWKHGLVSHUVLRQRIURWRUEDUUHVLVWDQFHVLVOHVVWKDQ RIWKHDYHUDJHYDOXH )LJ Û ØÞ
û øù ú ÷ óôõö í ñò ð ïé î êíî ê ì é êë çè é
Û Ø Ý\× Û ØÝ Û Ø ÜX×
°¿µ ÈÒM¸¿Ò ̤ÒZ¥Zξŵ Ã È £©Å±ª &µ ¥Zκ¸ ±X©´Õ±XÎ Õ ·¼¡©Å¥Z®§XÎ
°µ ÈÒM¸¿Ò ¸¿ÒZ¥Zξ%µ Èã©Å±ª &µ ¥ZÎ
¬
·¼¡©Å¥Z®§XÎ
±X©Õ Ã Õ Ð±XÎ ÐÌø
7KH EDU LV EURNHQ E\ VDZLQJ LW QHDU WKH HQGULQJ 3KRWR )RUHDFKFRQILJXUDWLRQRIEURNHQEDUVQRVLJQLILFDQWFKDQJH RI EHDULQJ YLEUDWLRQOHYHOVLVQRWLFHGRQUHVLGXDOPHFKDQLFDO XQEDODQFH DW QR ORDG 7KHUHIRUH DW IXOO ORDG WKH YLEUDWLRQ OHYHOVGHSHQGRQO\RQWKHUPDODQGPDJQHWLFXQEDODQFHV
Û ×ÉØ ÚX× ×XØ Ú ×ÉØ ÙX× ×XØ Ù Ý
Û
ÝÉÝ
Ý Û
Þ Û
Þ¡Ý
ß Ý
àÉáªâã·äÉåàÉæâ
©Ë©²Ô±ª Ƨª©µ ±ÉÀ
°µ ÈÒZ̤ҷü¹µ ´¢§X©Å´}µ ¥Ãκ¥Ã¾©Å¥M ƥé¼±X©©%§·´}µ ´Å &±XÎýɧÿþ
)RUHDFKWHVWDWIXOOORDGWKHVTXLUUHOFDJHLVLQWHQWLRQDOO\ GDPDJHGZLWKDJUDGDWLRQRIWKHGHIHFWV FRQILJXUDWLRQ FDJHZLWKRXWGHIHFWH[FHSWHGWKH GLVSHUVLRQRIPRXQWHGEDUVUHVLVWDQFH FRQILJXUDWLRQ RQHEDUSDUWLDOO\EURNHQZLWKFURVV VHFWLRQIDLOXUHRI )LJ FRQILJXUDWLRQ RQHEURNHQEDU )LJ FRQILJXUDWLRQ WZREURNHQEDUVDW )LJ FRQILJXUDWLRQ IRXUEURNHQEDUV )LJ
¥M Æ¥
ÕMÒZΧ¼£©%¥Ã®§XÎм±X© ¡§ª &±·µ À
)RUORDGWHVWVDEDFNWREDFNWHVWEHQFKLVLQVWDOOHGZLWK WZR LGHQWLFDO LQGXFWLRQ PDFKLQHV 3KRWR 7KH PDFKLQH ZLWKFDJHGHIHFWVLVXVHGLQPRWRUFRQILJXUDWLRQDQGWKHRWKHU RQHLQJHQHUDWRU$IOH[LEOHFRXSOLQJLVLQVWDOOHGWRHOLPLQDWH YLEUDWLRQVRIPLVDOLJQPHQW 3KRWR 7KHPRWRUVDUHVWURQJO\ ILWWHGRQVWHHOULJLGVXSSRUW
7KH UHVLVWDQFH RI HDFK EUD]HG LQWHUIDFH LV FDOFXODWHG DV IROORZ ZLWK UHDO VXUIDFHV RI EUD]LQJ JLYHQ E\ XOWUDVRQLF DQDO\VLV 5ª$ *'+-) 2 53 4"4- ) 5 56 '7 - *'"6 ) 5 5$&8"7 7 8&9:) 5
¥M Æ¥¨¿Ò
±·ýX®¹ Æ¥¨¼±·ýX®¹ Ƨɴ ¤¼§ªÎý
ZLWKL UHVSHFWLYHO\³'ULYHQ(QG´ '( DQG ³1RQ'ULYHQ(QG´ 1'( VLGHV
°¿µ ÈÒZÊÒ
"!
#çª &±·µ À
¥M Æ¥¹Ì¤ÒM°¤À § µ ¼£À §ýɥ㢣À µ ÎÈ
)RU WKH PRWRU VLPXODWLRQ ZLWK 0$69(&7 VRIWZDUH UHDO UHVLVWDQFHV RI FDJH DUH FRQVLGHUHG )LJXUH ZKLFK LQFOXGH IRUWKHN EDUHDFKUHVLVWDQFH5$&% RIEDUDQGEUD]HGLQWHUIDFHV UHVSHFWLYHO\QDPHG5$(X' ) % 55$ *',+}- .) % DQG5ª$ *'+,%- &) % 5$&% 5ª$ *'+}- ) % 5$(X' ) % 5ª$ *'+,%- &) %
5EUD]HN
/
/
BDCEGFIHJ
5EDUN
5EUD]HN
°¿µ ÈÒëÒM°°
ªþ . =
7LPH VLJQDOV DQG ))7 RI EHDULQJ YLEUDWLRQV SKDVH FXUUHQWVDQGQRLVHDUHUHFRUGHGRQDGLJLWDODQDO\]HURIELW UHVROXWLRQZLWKWKHIROORZLQJVDPSOLQJIUHTXHQFLHV +] +]DQGN+] $ FRPSDULVRQ RI VRIWZDUH FDOFXODWLRQ DQG H[SHULPHQWDO UHVXOWV LV JLYHQ RQ SKDVH FXUUHQWV IRU ³KHDOWK\´ DQG ³WZR EURNHQ EDUV´ FRQILJXUDWLRQV DURXQG VXSSO\ IUHTXHQF\ DW +]
R S NP
°¿µ ÈÒìÒ
;
Ñõ ±ÉÀ §XÎà ¿©%§·´}µ ´Å &±XÎýɧ ¥Ã¾¥ÃΧ¼£©Å±X¶·§ е Îà ƧX©%¾Å±·ýɧ
0 1
ÑZµ ±ÉÀ §XΡ ¤©%§·´}µ ´Å &±XÎýɧ ¥¡¾¥ZΧ©Å¥M ƥé¼±X© ªþ
!£¢§ª©µ ²³§XΡ @ ¥?à §ÉÀ µ ΣÈ
R LONQP
KMLONQP
?
K@S:NQP
ýÉ¥Z²³¢±X©µ ´\¥Zγ¥Ã¾½ýX£©&©Å§ªÎ¡ ¤¢ ±·´\§
Ó§·±ÉÀ ¡Ïºý·±ÉÈ¡§ýÉ¥Zξŵ Èã©Å±ª &µ ¥ZÎ
*
A
§X©%¾&§·ýª ý·±ÉÈ¡§¦¹µ ¥Ãà ¿©%§·´}µ ´Å &±XÎýɧ £µ ´\¢£§X©´}µ ¥ZÎ
G%
G%
R S NP G
°¿µ ÈÒ ÒM°°
!¡¢§X©Åµ ²³§XΡ @ ¥?¡ §ÉÀ µ ÎÈ
R LONQP
KMLONQP
?
G%
K@S:NQP
R S:NQP
°¿µ ÈÒ¿ÕXÒ Ç
ýÉ¥Z²³¢±X©µ ´\¥Zγ¥Ã¾½ýX£©&©Å§ªÎ¡ ¤¢ ±·´\§
*
¨§É±ÉÀ ¡ÏÐý·±ÉÈ¡§ýÉ¥Ãξ%µ ÈZ£©±ª Ƶ ¥ÃÎ
A
§·±ÉÀý·±ÉÈ禹µ º©%¥Z ¥Ã©©%§·´}µ ´Å &±XÎýɧ £µ ´¢§ª©´}µ ¥ZÎ
R LONQP
PYZ[
KMLONQP K@S:NQP V/µ ¼£©±ª Ƶ ¥ÃδW·üөŵ /§ªÎ
§ª©& &µ ý·±ÉÀ£¼§·±X©Åµ ÎÈ
G%
K@L:NP KXS NP R :S NQP R LONQP °¿µ ÈÒT¤ÒM°° ýÉ¥Z²³¢±X©µ ´\¥Zγ¥Ã¾½ýX£©&©Å§ªÎ¡ ¤¢? ±·´\§ !£¢§ª©µ ²³§XΡ @ ¦Ó¥¨¼£©%¥Ã®§ªÎº¼±X©´ÿýÉ¥Ãξ%µ Èᩱª &µ ¥ÃÎ ¥?¡ §XÀ µ ÎÈ §É±ÉÀý·±ÉÈ¡§¦¹µ * ЩťM ƥé©%§·´}µ ´Å &±XÎýɧA£µ ´\¢£§X©´}µ ¥ZÎ ±XÎÓ ¦¨¥¨¼¡©Å¥Z®§XÎм±X©Å´ ±ª Õ;¡ ?U
G%
G%
R S:NQP
°¿µ ÈÒ¿Õ£ÕMÒ Ç
R LONQP
PYZ[
G%
KMLONQP K@S:NQP V/µ ¼£©±ª Ƶ ¥ÃδW » ¥¨ü©µ /£§XÎ
§ª©& &µ ý·±ÉÀ£¼§·±X©Åµ ÎÈ
Î
Î
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± G%WR±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Õ]_Ó ^ À µ ² ±XÎ@¨ ` Ò Ò a Ƨ·µ ÎMÉb Ò a Σ µ ýÉ¥M ½ ÓÒ üÐÒ a ±;?¡ §Xν ÓÒ ¯ ÒOc » ¥Zε ÎG/ ±·´}µ / § §5 Ƨ·ýª &µ ¥ZÎ ¥¡¾ ¼£©%¥Ã®£§XÎ ©Å¥M ƥé³¼±X©´ µ Î ¥Z¢§X©Å±ª &µ ÎÈ µ Îà ýª &µ ¥ÃÎ ²³¥Z Æ¥Z©´,dQefMfMf ¡ g?h(i?jGk"lmnj f j?o;h.pqsrtmnj?u;o;h,kv mnj £/ ¥¡ÀÒZÌà ÎU ¸Z ¢£¢¿ÒG¡ «ÃÌ.à «Gà üÓ§·ýZÒ¿ÕTG Ò \ ]_Ó ^ §ª©´¶·§XΡ¼±X£²w Ò a ±XÎM Ï Ò °½Òsc § §"! µ ´ §XÎýɧ ¥¡¾ À ±X©ÅÈç µ Ρ ƧX©Å¼±X© ýX£©&©%§XΡ &´¹µ Î *£ ©%§É§³¢G ±·´\§Ô´}Ñõ ©&©%§ÉÀ ý·±ÉÈç³²³¥Z Æ¥Z©´ ¦¹µ ©%¥Z Æ¥Z©¼±X©±XÎQÆ ¥Ã© §XΣ ©Åµ ÎÈ ¾%±XÀ &´,dQ efMf@f gh(i?jGk"lWmnjDxtmnyto;h{z |G|i?h(i} ~nkwi?j?"q k} o; @/ ¥ÃÀÆÒÕÉÃÌ Î} U «?Z ¢£¢¿Ò¿Õ;¡ ¬Z¸5Õ;¡ ÊÃ5b £À Ï ÕTZ ¸¿Ò \ Ì?] µ &ý µ §; Ò ¹ a üÓ§XÎÈGVº Ò a5b ¥Ã®µ ΧXÎ ÒÅ
üÏÃαX² µ ý ²³¥?à §ÉÀÐ¥¡¾ *£ ©%§É§·¢? ±·´\§ ´}Ñõ ©&©Å§XÀ¨ý·±ÉÈ¡§ µ Îà ýª Ƶ ¥ÃÎ ²³¥Z ¥Ã©Å´Ô¦¨µ * ©Å¥M ƥ鳾űX£À &´(
v jxh"mG;l e r fM G ÕT?¡ T ¸Ã ¢£¢¿ÒÃÊn¡T ¸&ÊGT Ò \ ¸] ½Ò a °¿µ À µ ¢£¢§ª &µ °Ò a °©Å±XÎýɧ·´}ý µ ε ¨ ` Ò a ±·´}´\¥Ãε Òc ©Å±Xδ}µ §XΡ Ç ±·´( ² ¥G¡ §ÉÀ À µ ÎÈ ¥Z©µ §XΡ Ƨ; Æ¥£ µ ±ÉÈÃΣ¥£´Å &µ ý·´ ¥¡¾µ Îà ýª Ƶ ¥ÃÎ ² ±·ý µ Χɴ ¦¨µ * ©%¥Z Æ¥Z© ±·´ÅÏ¡²º² §5 ©µ §·´,dQ v jVxhmn;l e r fM ? ÕTG¡T ¸Ã ¢£¢¤ÒÃÊÃ&Ê£«Ò \ ¬n] ±XÎ¥¡À ±·´( Ò Òa §ÉÈåâ¥ZÀ ¥¡´(É b Ò a ±X¢±;¡ ¥Ã¢¥ZÀ ¥¡´( Ò d αÉÀ Ï£´}µ ´¥¡¾ ´}Ñõ ©%©%§ÉÀ ý·±ÉÈ¡§ µ Îà ýª &µ ¥ÃÎ ²³¥Z Æ¥Z©´ ¦¨µ * ¼£©%¥Ã®§ªÎ ©%¥Z Æ¥Z© ¼±X©Å´(dQ v jx0h"mG;l e r fM G ÕT?T ÊG/ ¥ÃÀÆÒZÌZ ¢£¢¿Ò¿Õ£T ÆÌÒ Ç µ ÈÃ¥? ¢±·µ Î
\
G] Ê
±ÉÈn Àµ Ò a ¨§Éµ Î üºÒ a ±X¶Mµ ® ºÒ a §X¶É¶É¥ÃÈG ÒXc ¥G¡§ÉÀ À µ ÎÈ ©%¥Z Æ¥Z©ºý·±ÉÈ¡§ ² ¥M ƥéŴ ¾%¥Z© ¾%±XÀ ¡§ª Ƨ·ýª Ƶ ¥ÃÎdQ v jx0h"mG;l m } ?o ? OefMfMf e j} o;h(j?i }*v mj?i"q :|tmkv ~Gmnjwv ipjmk}*v k?mh f oQQ} hv i iv j?ok ¥M¦¨§ª© À §·ýª ©%¥Ãε ý·´ ±XÎ ü©µ £ / §; ±X©&©&Ï£ÆÀ §· ¥Ã§5 ÿ °©±XÎýɧ;¨ÕÉÆÌ §X¢Ã ÅÒÕT?T£«? µ Î Ãýª &µ ¥ÃÎ
¢£¢¿ÒM¸½ÕÉƸ«Ò
\
G]
§XΡ Æ¥Z£Î´}µ
µ Î Ãýª &µ ¥ÃÎ
Ò
a
»
µ ýÉ¥¡À ±·´
(
* ;
Ò
#c
©±Xδ5µ §XΡ ±XÎ ´Å Ƨ·±;ZÏ£%´Å &±ª § ±XαÉÀ Ï£´}µ ´ ¥Ã¾ ,dQ v j#x0h"mG;l e z{rXr f ;z G » ±X¼§XÀ T?Tn⣢¿ÒM¸¡T¸Ì£Ì¤Ò \ n] §XΣ¼¥Z£¶Mµ G Ò Ò£ÐÒc ©%§"/µ §5¦ ¥Ã¾ µ Îà ýª &µ ¥ZÎ ²³¥Z Æ¥Z©´´}µ ÈZαª £©%§¨±XαÉÀ Ï£´5µ ´ ±·´Ô± ²³§;£µ £² ¾%¥Z©Ð¾Å±X£À &´Ã§ª Ƨ·ýª &µ ¥ÃÎdQ v j¡xh"mG;l e.f rt¢X£s¤ ? ÈôŠ̽ե ¦ §ª¢¡ ƧX²º¼§X©¸Q¦ §ÕTGTG ±·ý £§XÎG ` §X©&²Ô±XΡÏ?à ¢£¢¤Ò¿ÕT ¬¡¡ªÕT ¬£¬Ò \ T?] °¿µ À µ ¢¡¢§ª &µ °½Ò a¿°©±XÎýɧɴ5ý µ ε :¨ ` Ò a ±·´}´\¥Ãε Ò a Ç ±·´(¿ l c Ó Æ§·ý¡ ε Ñçɴӵ Î µ ÎÃýª &µ ¥ÃÎ ²Ô±·ý µ Χ·´£ µ ±ÉÈÃÎ¥¡´5µ ´¹µ ÎýÉÀ £ µ ÎÈ * §³´¢§É§; ©µ ¢£¢À §º§É¾&¾%§Éýª ¨,© efMfMf gh(i?jnkl?mnj e j??~nk"lz |?|t*v i}*v mnjGk £/ ¥¡ÀÒZÌà ÎU ¸Z ¢£¢¿Ò T¡ 5ÕÉGnªb ±XÎ¿Ò °¤§X¼¿ÒQT \ ÕÉn]D^ÓÀ µ ² ±Xι ` Ò Ò a Ƨ·µ ηb Ò ac §ª *£ ¥?£ ´ ¥¡¾ ²³¥Z Æ¥Z© ýX£©&©Å§ªÎ¡ ´5µ ÈÃαª ¡©Å§ ±XαÉÀ Ï£´}µ ´,dQf oQQ} hv i i v jGokiGj?xtmnyto;h"q k} o;Ak £ / ¥¡ÀÆÒÿG ΪU ¬n ¢¡¢¿Ò ¸Ê¡Ì¸«Ã¸ §ª¢¡ ÅÒ¿ÕTG¡ T ¿Ò \ Õ£Õ"] ¼£§;? Òa ±ÉÈn£ À µ Ò a ±X¶Mµ ® ºÒ a §X¶X¶·¥ÃÈG ÒA
¥G¡ §ÉÀ À µ ÎÈ µ Îà ýª Ƶ ¥ÃÎ ² ¥M ƥéŴ¾%¥Z©0¡ µ ±ÉÈÃÎ¥¡´Å &µ ýÓ¢££©&¢¥¡´}§É´
,nf x fs ?¤ «£T §X¢Ã ƧX²º¼§X©ÓÕT?T?T£ Ì¡Ì¤Ò ¢¡ ¾ ¢£¢¿ÒÕÉG ±X´}±XΣΣ§; µ ´}´\§ZÒ \ Õª?] ±ÉÈn À µ Ò rtmnj} hv ªn~}*v mnj¬« iQmnV{i?j??oD?o i¬Vi v j?oDiGk q jGhmj?o © ~}*v v k&i}*v mnj®?o¯ i° mpOv ±~GoG mG~Go © ?okh(²k"o;i?~;³´?oµjGoQ~Gh"mnj?oko}Gok ¹ ε / §X©Å´}µ >º ¨§XΡ©µ i p:mhv } ?Vok¶p²;j?²}*v ±~nok É· ´}§®¡ § ü¨¥£ýª ¥Ã©Å±ª ¡ § À ¸ Ó ¥¡µ Îý·±X©º;,X » ±XÎn/ µ §X©ÕT?T?¤T Ò \ ÕXÌG ] ü¨¥Z©%©%§ÉÀ À üÐÒ ¨ ` Ò a ±ª ƧX©Å´\¥ÃÎ » Ò Ò a ¯ ±ª &´\¥ÃÎÉb Ò °Òc § ý·±X´\§·´ ±XÎ ÑñXΡ &µ ¾%µ ý·±ª &µ ¥ZÎ ¥Ã¾´}µ à §X¼±XÎ ýX£©%©%§XΡ Æ´ ¾%¥Z© ´\§ µ Î ©%¥Z Æ¥Z© ¾Å±X£À ¡¡ §ª Ƨ·ýª Ƶ ¥ÃÎ ´ÅÏ£´ §X²Ô´º¾%¥Z©Ðý·±ÉÈ¡§ µ Îà ýª &µ ¥ZÎ ² ¥M ƥéŴ,dQe r fM Q© Ç µ È¡¥G ¢±·µ ÎG© Ç Ì? ¢£¸ËÕ5¸ ¸ËÕ"¤ T Ò \ Õª¸? ] °¿µ À µ ¢¡¢§ª &µ ½ °Ò ½a °©Å±XÎýɧ·´}ý µ ε M¨ ` Ò a ±·´}´\¥Ãε ½ Ò a Ç ±·´& ½Ò c ²º¢±·ýª ¥Ã¾ ´¢§É§; ©Åµ ¢£¢À §Ð¥ÃÎ ©Å¥M ƥé ¾Å±X£À X£ µ ±ÉÈZÎ¥£´}µ ´ ¥¡¾ µ Îà ýª &µ ¥ÃÎ ² ±·ý µ Σ§·´,dQe r fM G Ç µ È¡¥G ¢±·µ Î Ç Ã ¢¡¸¤¬Z¸¤¬¡«Ò \ Õ·¬] ±ÉÈn À µ Ò a ¼§;? Ò ¨ a ±X¶Mµ ®¨ ºÒ ¹ a §ª¶É¶·¥Ã£È? Ò
» §ª£ ©Å¥¡&¾Æ£¶É¶ªÏ/ §·ýª Æ¥Z© ýÉ¥ZΡ ©%¥¡À¤¥¡¾ ±¼£©%¥Ã®£§Xμ±X© µ Îà ýª &µ ¥Ãκ²³¥Z Æ¥Z©(
,Qf x fs ? «£>T §X¢Ã ƧX²º¼§X©ÕT?TGT Õª¸½ÕMÒ ¢¡ ¾¢£¢¿ÒÕÉ&«? ±X´5±XΡΧ; µ ´}´\§ZÒ \ ÕÉÊn ] üÓ£©Å±XΡ &±ªÏ? Ò a §X©Åý·µ §X©.{Éb Ò Ò a £¼¡£©& Ƶ ÎÓ Ò a Σ¥ÃÎ{Éb ÒtXc °¿µ ε Ƨ §XÀ §X²³§XΡ ýÉ¥Z²³¢£Ã &±ª &µ ¥ZÎ ¥Ã¾ÿ * §¹² ±ÉÈÃΧ5 &µ ýоŵ §XÀ £ ´±XÎ ¾%¥Z©ýɧ·´µ Î ±XÎ µ Îà ýª Ƶ ¥ÃÎ ² ±·ý µ Χ ±ª µ &´ ©Å±ª Ƨ; ¢¥¡µ Ρ ¦¹µ ´}µ ²ºÀ ±ª Ƶ ¥ÃÎ ¥¡¾ §ÉÀ §·ýª ©%¥Ã²³§·ý ±Xε ý·±ÉÀ¼¡ §É¾&§·ýª &´,dQ e r fM ?Z ±X©Åµ ´(à °©±XÎýɧZÒ «
²³¥Z ¥Ã©Å´¦¨µ ý·±ÉÈ繾űXÀ &´ ¹±X²º²Ô±X²³§ª £Îµ ´}µ § ÕÉƸ ¢£©Åµ ÀËÕ
