Building a sustainable transformation pathway for Uruguay's beef sector

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Context -‐ Agriculture lies at the center of sustainable development. Its fundamental role as the supplier of human nutri;on shapes the global economy and our ...
Building a sustainable transformation pathway for Uruguay’s beef sector: A new approach from the UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network David Kanter1,2 ([email protected]) Bruno Lanfranco3, Bruno Ferraro3, José Bervejillo4, Maria Eugenia Silva Carrazzone4, Miguel Carriquiry5, Walter Baethgen2, Mario Mondelli4, Rodrigo Saldias3, Juan Soares de Lima3 1. New York University; 2. The Earth Institute at Columbia University; 3. INIA Uruguay; 4. OPYPA, Ministerio de Ganaderia, Agricultural y Pesca, Uruguay; 5. Instituto de Economia, Uruguay  

Introduc)on   Context   -­‐   Agriculture   lies   at   the   center   of   sustainable   development.   Its   fundamental   role   as   the   supplier   of   human   nutri9on   shapes   the   global   economy   and   our   rela9onship   with   the   natural   world.   A   vibrant,   resilient   and   produc9ve   agricultural   sector   will   be   fundamental   to   achieving   the   post-­‐2015  Sustainable  Development  Goals  (SDGs).  Therefore  it  is  crucial   for  countries  to  build  and  implement  long-­‐term  na9onal  transforma9on   pathways   for   their   agricultural   sector   consistent   with   principles   of   sustainable  development.     Objec)ve   –   To   develop   produc9vity   and   environmental   targets   for   Uruguay’s   beef   sector   consistent   with   the   post-­‐2015   SDGs,   to   be   achieved   by   2030.   This   is   the   first   case   study   of   a   project   ini9ated   by   the   United   Na9ons   Sustainable   Development   Solu9ons   Network   that   includes  teams  from  the  United  Kingdom  and  China  (Schwoob,  2015).  

Methodology   Sustainable   intensifica9on   of   Uruguay’s   beef   sector   is   a   mul9-­‐objec9ve   op9miza9on   problem:   the   challenge   is   to   maximize   produc9vity,   while   minimizing   a   suite   of   environmental   impacts   (greenhouse   gas   emissions,   biodiversity   loss   and   nutrient   losses).   We   adopt   a   mixed-­‐methods   approach   for   this   project,   blending   modeling   efforts   (using   local   tools)   with   expert   judgment   from   scien9sts   and   key   stakeholders   across   Uruguay.   We   combine   data   from   Uruguay’s   most   produc9ve   beef   producers   with   a   beef   produc9vity   model   (Soares   de   Lima   &   Montossi,   2011)   to   set   targets   for   a   number   of   parameters   linked   to   beef   produc9vity.   We   then   ask   experts   from   a   variety   of   organiza9ons   across   Uruguay  for  their  judgment  on  the  most  ambi9ous  environmental  targets   and   pathways   for   the   beef   sector   in   2030   (based   on   published   literature   where   possible)   given   the   produc9vity   target   and   pathways.   Finally,   we   use  the  T21  model  (a  long-­‐term  planning  tool  specifically  targeted  towards   developing   and   emerging   economies   that   want   to   promote   economic   growth   while   simultaneously   implemen9ng   sustainable   development   goals)  to  calibrate  the  expert  values,  iden9fy  the  poten9al  trade-­‐offs  and   synergies   that   will   likely   exist   between   different   targets,   and   es9mate   their  economic  impact.     Beef$produc+vity$ Environment$ $   Target:$Data$from$most$produc+ve$farms$ $   •  (FUCREA)$ •  Targets,and,pathways:$Expert$elicita+on/$ •  Pathway:$Soares$de$Lima$&$Montossi$   published$literature$ (2011)$beef$sector$model$     T21$model$   $   •  Target$calibra+on$   •  Interac+ons$between$targets$ •  Economic$analysis$         Final,targets,and,technical,   pathways,           Produc)vity   -­‐   Our   approach   is   to   set   na9onal   targets   for   a   number   of   parameters   linked   to   beef   produc9vity   that   reflect   the   prac9ces   of   Uruguay’s   most   produc9ve   beef   producers   (Table   1).   They   entail   a   combina9on   of   accelera9ng   the   ca[le   finishing   process   and   increasing   pregnancy   rates   largely   via   improved   nutri9on   techniques,   in   order   to   ul9mately  increase  turnover  (i.e.  slaughter  rates),  and  consequently  beef   produc9vity.       www.PosterPresentations.com

Targets  

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These  targets  are  then  used  as  inputs  to  a  beef  produc9vity  model  (Soares   de   Lima   &   Montossi,   2011)   to   es9mate   na9onal   average   beef   produc9vity   by  2030.  They  have  the  effect  of  reducing  average  slaughter  age  from  38   months  to  25  months  by  2030,  and  increasing  the  total  number  of  animals   slaughtered   from   2.4   million   to   3   million   per   year.   Consequently,   the   model  projects  a  2030  na9onal  produc9vity  value  of  approximately  130  kg   LW/ha,  up  from  the  current  value  of  100  kg  LW/ha.       Some  basic  constraints  are  imposed  in  our  analysis  that  reflect  Uruguay’s   poli9cal  priori9es,  par9cularly  its  reputa9on  as  a  provider  of  high  quality   grass-­‐fed  beef  (the  “Uruguay  Natural”  brand).  Consequently,  future  gains   in  produc9vity  cannot  be  done  in  a  way  that  tarnishes  that  brand,  e.g.  by   shibing   produc9on   primarily   to   feedlots.   Also,   given   the   growing   area   of   Uruguay’s   land   devoted   to   crop   produc9on,   we   cannot   expect   the   land   devoted  to  beef  produc9on  to  increase  significantly.                         Environment   -­‐   We   set   targets   for   three   environmental   issues   that   are   par9cularly   important   for   Uruguay’s   beef   sector:   carbon   footprint,   biodiversity  loss,  and  nitrogen  (N)  losses.  Other  significant  environmental   issues  affec9ng  Uruguay’s  agricultural  sector,  such  as  water  contamina9on   and   soil   erosion,   will   be   addressed   in   follow-­‐up   reports   on   other   agricultural  sub-­‐sectors.       Carbon  footprint  -­‐    The  GHG  emission  targets  for  Uruguay’s  beef  sector  are   set  on  a  per  head  of  ca[le  and  per  unit  area  basis.  Both  are  important,  as   the   former   is   a   measure   of   emissions   intensity   while   the   la[er   captures   what  occurs  to  absolute  emission  levels.  The  current  carbon  footprint  is  21   kg  CO2e  per  kg  live  weight  (LW)  per  year,  or  2,330  kg  CO2e  per  hectare  per   year  (Picasso  et  al.  2014).  The  2030  targets  for  each  of  these  metrics  are   15   kg   CO2e/kg   LW/yr   and   1,700   kg   CO2e/ha/yr   respec9vely   –   which   includes   reduc9ons   in   nitrous   oxide   and   methane   emissions,   as   well   as   increased   carbon   sequestra9on   in   grasslands.   Achieving   these   targets   would  reduce  GHG  emissions  from  Uruguay’s  beef  sector  by  0.8-­‐7million   tons  CO2e/yr  by  2030,  equivalent  to  5%-­‐27%  of  Uruguay’s  agricultural  GHG   emissions  in  2012  (FAOSTAT).  The  Uruguay  team  has  iden9fied  three  main   strategies  for  achieving  these  targets:     •  Reducing   N2O   emissions:   The   two   strategies   considered   most   appropriate   for   the   Uruguayan   context   are   improved   ca[le   gene9cs   and   nitrifica9on   inhibitors.   The   la[er   would   reduce   the   contribu9on  of  N2O  emissions  to  the  beef  sector  carbon  footprint   by  20%,  while  the  former  would  have  only  a  marginal  impact.   •  Increasing   improved   pastures   (selected   grass   and   legumes/ increased   P   fer9lizer   use):   In   addi9on   to   its   contribu9on   to   increasing   produc9vity,   improved   pastures   have   a   two-­‐fold   climate   benefit.   They   can   increase   diet   diges9bility   in   livestock,   which   can   reduce   methane   emissions   –   in   this   case,   up   to   5%   of   Uruguay’s   emissions   from   enteric   fermenta9on.   They   can   also   increase   carbon   sequestra9on,   which   could   reduce   emissions   by   1.6  million  tons  CO2.   •  Increasing  trees  for  shade:  Reduces  heat  stress  in  livestock,  which   could   increase   produc9vity   (though   data   is   limited   on   its   effec9veness).  From  a  climate  perspec9ve,  increased  tree  plan9ng   could   also   sequester   carbon,   reducing   emissions   by   3.6   million   tons  CO2.      

          Nitrogen   -­‐   The   nitrogen   (N)   targets   for   the   beef   sector   are   set   in   terms   of   N   losses   per   head   of   ca[le   and   per   unit   area.   The   current   N   footprint   is   approximately   66   kg   N   lost/kg   LW/yr   and   7.3   kg   N   lost/ha/yr.   The   2030   targets   for   each   of   these   metrics   are   48   kg   N   lost/kg   LW/yr   and   6.3   kg   N   lost/ha/yr   respec9vely.   Achieving   these   targets   would   reduce   N   losses   of   approximately   26,600   t   N/yr,   equivalent   to   30%   of   current   N   losses   from   Uruguay’s   beef   sector.   The   three   strategies   deemed   appropriate   for   Uruguay  are:     •  Reduced  manure  produc9on:  Improved  gene9cs  could  reduce  manure   produc9on  by  approximately  200  t  N/yr  by  2030  ,  which  would  avoid  N   losses  of  about  100  t  N/yr  –  a  marginal  contribu9on  to  reduc9ons  in  N   losses.   •  Nitrogen  inhibitors:  If  50%  of  grazing  land  devoted  to  beef  produc9on   were  to  use  N  inhibitors,  Uruguay  would  avoid  N  losses  of  24,  250  t  N/yr.   •  Improved  pastures:  Increasing  the  propor9on  of  improved  pasture  from   15.4%  today  to  30%  in  2030  could  reduce  nitrate  leaching  by  3000  t  N/ yr.                                   Biodiversity  -­‐  The  biodiversity  target  is  the  most  simple  in  terms  of  metrics   and  strategy.  The  goal  is  for  zero  expansion  in  the  amount  of  land  devoted   to  beef  produc9on  between  current  levels  and  2030,  meaning  that  the  10.8   million   ha   of   grazing   land   remains   constant   over   this   period.   While   this   target  is  directly  inspired  by  one  of  the  proposed  Sustainable  Development   Goals   (which   calls   for   a   complete   halt   of   forest   conversion   to   crop   or   livestock   agriculture   by   2030   –   SDSN,   2013),   some   may   argue   that   simply   increasing  the  propor9on  of  improved  pastures  can  also  reduce  biodiversity   –  by  favoring  grasses  that  thrive  at  higher  levels  of  N  captured  by  legumes.   This   is   important   to   consider   as   policy   is   developed   and   biodiversity   targets   eventually  set  for  Uruguay’s  en9re  agricultural  sector.           An  important  strategy  for  transforming  targets  into  policy  is  to  disaggregate   the   na9onal-­‐level   targets   into   regional-­‐level   targets,   which   be[er   reflect   the   different   economic,   biophysical   and   social   condi9ons   across   Uruguay.   Moreover,  it  enhances  the  poten9al  for  stakeholder  buy-­‐in  into  the  project,   as   local   actors   be[er   understand   how   policies   borne   out   of   this   project   could  affect  them.  To  do  this,  we  divide  Uruguay’s  agricultural  land  into  9   regions,   following   a   set   of   criteria   developed   for   the   purposes   of   this   project:  we  consider  the  economic  importance  of  beef  produc9on  as  well  as   the   ecological   characteris9cs   and   soil   types   that   dominate   in   a   par9cular   region.     The   building   blocks   of   each   region   are   police   districts   in   order   to   more  easily  link  each  region  to  available  sta9s9cs  on  livestock  and  land  use.        

                                       

 

Key  findings  

-­‐  It   is   possible   to   develop   produc9vity   and   environment   targets   for   Uruguay’s  beef  sector  that  are  consistent  with  several  of  the  post-­‐2015   Sustainable   Development   Goals   relevant   to   agriculture.   Together,   they   cons9tute   an   ambi9ous   and   transforma9ve   pathway   for   Uruguay’s   beef   sector.   -­‐  A  combina9on  of  accelera9ng  the  ca[le  finishing  process  and  increasing   pregnancy   rates   via   improved   nutri9on   techniques   could   achieve   a   produc9vity  target  of  130  kg  LW/ha  by  2030,  up  from  current  levels  of   100  kg  LW/ha.   -­‐  Environmental   targets   for   carbon   footprint,   nitrogen   and   biodiversity   could  generate  important  benefits  

 

Regional  breakdown

Next  steps   -­‐  Expand  analysis  to  other  agricultural  sub-­‐sectors.  Preliminary  work  on   the  rice  sector  has  already  begun. -­‐  Develop  social  and  economic  targets  for  Uruguay’s  en9re  agricultural   sector,  including  targets  for  educa9on,  poverty,  health,  nutri9on  and   gender  equality.   -­‐  Begin  process  of  collabora9on  with  government  and  other  stakeholders   to  develop  policies  that  can  implement  the  produc9vity  and   environmental  goals  reported  here.