Building a sustainable transformation pathway for Uruguay’s beef sector: A new approach from the UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network David Kanter1,2 (
[email protected]) Bruno Lanfranco3, Bruno Ferraro3, José Bervejillo4, Maria Eugenia Silva Carrazzone4, Miguel Carriquiry5, Walter Baethgen2, Mario Mondelli4, Rodrigo Saldias3, Juan Soares de Lima3 1. New York University; 2. The Earth Institute at Columbia University; 3. INIA Uruguay; 4. OPYPA, Ministerio de Ganaderia, Agricultural y Pesca, Uruguay; 5. Instituto de Economia, Uruguay
Introduc)on Context -‐ Agriculture lies at the center of sustainable development. Its fundamental role as the supplier of human nutri9on shapes the global economy and our rela9onship with the natural world. A vibrant, resilient and produc9ve agricultural sector will be fundamental to achieving the post-‐2015 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Therefore it is crucial for countries to build and implement long-‐term na9onal transforma9on pathways for their agricultural sector consistent with principles of sustainable development. Objec)ve – To develop produc9vity and environmental targets for Uruguay’s beef sector consistent with the post-‐2015 SDGs, to be achieved by 2030. This is the first case study of a project ini9ated by the United Na9ons Sustainable Development Solu9ons Network that includes teams from the United Kingdom and China (Schwoob, 2015).
Methodology Sustainable intensifica9on of Uruguay’s beef sector is a mul9-‐objec9ve op9miza9on problem: the challenge is to maximize produc9vity, while minimizing a suite of environmental impacts (greenhouse gas emissions, biodiversity loss and nutrient losses). We adopt a mixed-‐methods approach for this project, blending modeling efforts (using local tools) with expert judgment from scien9sts and key stakeholders across Uruguay. We combine data from Uruguay’s most produc9ve beef producers with a beef produc9vity model (Soares de Lima & Montossi, 2011) to set targets for a number of parameters linked to beef produc9vity. We then ask experts from a variety of organiza9ons across Uruguay for their judgment on the most ambi9ous environmental targets and pathways for the beef sector in 2030 (based on published literature where possible) given the produc9vity target and pathways. Finally, we use the T21 model (a long-‐term planning tool specifically targeted towards developing and emerging economies that want to promote economic growth while simultaneously implemen9ng sustainable development goals) to calibrate the expert values, iden9fy the poten9al trade-‐offs and synergies that will likely exist between different targets, and es9mate their economic impact. Beef$produc+vity$ Environment$ $ Target:$Data$from$most$produc+ve$farms$ $ • (FUCREA)$ • Targets,and,pathways:$Expert$elicita+on/$ • Pathway:$Soares$de$Lima$&$Montossi$ published$literature$ (2011)$beef$sector$model$ T21$model$ $ • Target$calibra+on$ • Interac+ons$between$targets$ • Economic$analysis$ Final,targets,and,technical, pathways, Produc)vity -‐ Our approach is to set na9onal targets for a number of parameters linked to beef produc9vity that reflect the prac9ces of Uruguay’s most produc9ve beef producers (Table 1). They entail a combina9on of accelera9ng the ca[le finishing process and increasing pregnancy rates largely via improved nutri9on techniques, in order to ul9mately increase turnover (i.e. slaughter rates), and consequently beef produc9vity. www.PosterPresentations.com
Targets
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These targets are then used as inputs to a beef produc9vity model (Soares de Lima & Montossi, 2011) to es9mate na9onal average beef produc9vity by 2030. They have the effect of reducing average slaughter age from 38 months to 25 months by 2030, and increasing the total number of animals slaughtered from 2.4 million to 3 million per year. Consequently, the model projects a 2030 na9onal produc9vity value of approximately 130 kg LW/ha, up from the current value of 100 kg LW/ha. Some basic constraints are imposed in our analysis that reflect Uruguay’s poli9cal priori9es, par9cularly its reputa9on as a provider of high quality grass-‐fed beef (the “Uruguay Natural” brand). Consequently, future gains in produc9vity cannot be done in a way that tarnishes that brand, e.g. by shibing produc9on primarily to feedlots. Also, given the growing area of Uruguay’s land devoted to crop produc9on, we cannot expect the land devoted to beef produc9on to increase significantly. Environment -‐ We set targets for three environmental issues that are par9cularly important for Uruguay’s beef sector: carbon footprint, biodiversity loss, and nitrogen (N) losses. Other significant environmental issues affec9ng Uruguay’s agricultural sector, such as water contamina9on and soil erosion, will be addressed in follow-‐up reports on other agricultural sub-‐sectors. Carbon footprint -‐ The GHG emission targets for Uruguay’s beef sector are set on a per head of ca[le and per unit area basis. Both are important, as the former is a measure of emissions intensity while the la[er captures what occurs to absolute emission levels. The current carbon footprint is 21 kg CO2e per kg live weight (LW) per year, or 2,330 kg CO2e per hectare per year (Picasso et al. 2014). The 2030 targets for each of these metrics are 15 kg CO2e/kg LW/yr and 1,700 kg CO2e/ha/yr respec9vely – which includes reduc9ons in nitrous oxide and methane emissions, as well as increased carbon sequestra9on in grasslands. Achieving these targets would reduce GHG emissions from Uruguay’s beef sector by 0.8-‐7million tons CO2e/yr by 2030, equivalent to 5%-‐27% of Uruguay’s agricultural GHG emissions in 2012 (FAOSTAT). The Uruguay team has iden9fied three main strategies for achieving these targets: • Reducing N2O emissions: The two strategies considered most appropriate for the Uruguayan context are improved ca[le gene9cs and nitrifica9on inhibitors. The la[er would reduce the contribu9on of N2O emissions to the beef sector carbon footprint by 20%, while the former would have only a marginal impact. • Increasing improved pastures (selected grass and legumes/ increased P fer9lizer use): In addi9on to its contribu9on to increasing produc9vity, improved pastures have a two-‐fold climate benefit. They can increase diet diges9bility in livestock, which can reduce methane emissions – in this case, up to 5% of Uruguay’s emissions from enteric fermenta9on. They can also increase carbon sequestra9on, which could reduce emissions by 1.6 million tons CO2. • Increasing trees for shade: Reduces heat stress in livestock, which could increase produc9vity (though data is limited on its effec9veness). From a climate perspec9ve, increased tree plan9ng could also sequester carbon, reducing emissions by 3.6 million tons CO2.
Nitrogen -‐ The nitrogen (N) targets for the beef sector are set in terms of N losses per head of ca[le and per unit area. The current N footprint is approximately 66 kg N lost/kg LW/yr and 7.3 kg N lost/ha/yr. The 2030 targets for each of these metrics are 48 kg N lost/kg LW/yr and 6.3 kg N lost/ha/yr respec9vely. Achieving these targets would reduce N losses of approximately 26,600 t N/yr, equivalent to 30% of current N losses from Uruguay’s beef sector. The three strategies deemed appropriate for Uruguay are: • Reduced manure produc9on: Improved gene9cs could reduce manure produc9on by approximately 200 t N/yr by 2030 , which would avoid N losses of about 100 t N/yr – a marginal contribu9on to reduc9ons in N losses. • Nitrogen inhibitors: If 50% of grazing land devoted to beef produc9on were to use N inhibitors, Uruguay would avoid N losses of 24, 250 t N/yr. • Improved pastures: Increasing the propor9on of improved pasture from 15.4% today to 30% in 2030 could reduce nitrate leaching by 3000 t N/ yr. Biodiversity -‐ The biodiversity target is the most simple in terms of metrics and strategy. The goal is for zero expansion in the amount of land devoted to beef produc9on between current levels and 2030, meaning that the 10.8 million ha of grazing land remains constant over this period. While this target is directly inspired by one of the proposed Sustainable Development Goals (which calls for a complete halt of forest conversion to crop or livestock agriculture by 2030 – SDSN, 2013), some may argue that simply increasing the propor9on of improved pastures can also reduce biodiversity – by favoring grasses that thrive at higher levels of N captured by legumes. This is important to consider as policy is developed and biodiversity targets eventually set for Uruguay’s en9re agricultural sector. An important strategy for transforming targets into policy is to disaggregate the na9onal-‐level targets into regional-‐level targets, which be[er reflect the different economic, biophysical and social condi9ons across Uruguay. Moreover, it enhances the poten9al for stakeholder buy-‐in into the project, as local actors be[er understand how policies borne out of this project could affect them. To do this, we divide Uruguay’s agricultural land into 9 regions, following a set of criteria developed for the purposes of this project: we consider the economic importance of beef produc9on as well as the ecological characteris9cs and soil types that dominate in a par9cular region. The building blocks of each region are police districts in order to more easily link each region to available sta9s9cs on livestock and land use.
Key findings
-‐ It is possible to develop produc9vity and environment targets for Uruguay’s beef sector that are consistent with several of the post-‐2015 Sustainable Development Goals relevant to agriculture. Together, they cons9tute an ambi9ous and transforma9ve pathway for Uruguay’s beef sector. -‐ A combina9on of accelera9ng the ca[le finishing process and increasing pregnancy rates via improved nutri9on techniques could achieve a produc9vity target of 130 kg LW/ha by 2030, up from current levels of 100 kg LW/ha. -‐ Environmental targets for carbon footprint, nitrogen and biodiversity could generate important benefits
Regional breakdown
Next steps -‐ Expand analysis to other agricultural sub-‐sectors. Preliminary work on the rice sector has already begun. -‐ Develop social and economic targets for Uruguay’s en9re agricultural sector, including targets for educa9on, poverty, health, nutri9on and gender equality. -‐ Begin process of collabora9on with government and other stakeholders to develop policies that can implement the produc9vity and environmental goals reported here.
