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European Parliament 2014 Elections This briefing is part of a DeHavilland EU series on the 2014 European elections. Updated 31 March 2014

Appointment of the European Commission 2014-2019 Candidates for President of the Commission

Martin Schulz

Compromise nomination

Main candidates

Jean-Claude Juncker

?

No candidates

Secondary candidates

EPP (Luxembourg)

Guy Verhofstadt

ALDE (Belgium)

S&D (Germany)

José Bové

Ska Keller

Greens (France & Germany)

Alexis Tsipras

GUE/NGL (Greece)

The ECR and EFD Groups in the European Parliament are not nominating a candidate for the Commission Presidency.

© DeHavilland Information Services Ltd 2014

Candidates for the Presidency of the European Commission 2014-2019

Introduction Renewal of the European Commission In autumn 2014, the mandate of the current European Commission expires and a new College of Commissioners will be appointed, with one member for each of the European Union’s 28 Member States. Each Commissioner has a specific policy portfolio and oversees the development of EU policy and legislation in his or her field, like Ministers in national governments. The first step in selection process of the new European Commission will be the nomination of a Commission President. Five of the seven political groups in the European Parliament have nominated a candidate for this position. Under the EU Treaty, the President will be nominated by EU Heads of State and Government in the European Council in June 2014 and the nomination subject to a vote by the European Parliament. As there is no legal obligation for the President to be drawn from among the people put forward by the groups, EU leaders can nominate a different candidate altogether if Parliament and Member States cannot jointly agree on one of the official contenders.

Candidates for Commission Presidency 

This briefing takes a close look at the candidates for the Commission Presidency, providing comprehensive information on their background and policy priorities.

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The paper also offers a first assessment of the candidates as regards their individual likelihood of obtaining the post and a timeline of the selection process.

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A synthesis of the analysis of the race for the Presidency can be found here.

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For more information on the procedural side of the selection of the Commission, please refer to this briefing.

© DeHavilland EU Ltd 2014. All rights reserved.

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Analysis of the race for next European Commission President Nomination process 

The European Commission is the EU’s executive arm and civil service, headed by a Commission President who serves in five-year terms. The formal nomination for the next President will be made by the EU’s national governments (the Council) in June 2014, but the candidate must be endorsed by a simple majority in the European Parliament following the May 2014 European elections.

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Following the entry into force of the Lisbon Treaty, the Parliament is expected to insist that the largest parliamentary group should make the nomination for the next Commission President, as the national governments must now take the outcome of the upcoming European Parliament elections “into account” when putting forward their candidate. However, no legal obligation exists to force the Member States to choose a candidate from the largest group following the elections.

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In order to underline the link between the European elections and the selection of the next Commission President, five of the Parliament’s seven political groups have formally nominated candidates for the position. However, the expected low turnout in the elections is likely to weaken claims by the Parliament that the candidates of the political groups enjoy the greatest democratic legitimacy. ∼ Contest between EPP and S&D

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According to recent polls, the EPP and S&D political groups (which represent Europe’s mainstream centreright and centre-left political parties respectively) are neck-and-neck to become the largest group in the European Parliament after the elections. As a result, it is expected that the next Commission President will be a member of either of these two groups.

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The Socialists have nominated Martin Schulz, a long-standing MEP and the current President of the European Parliament, whereas the EPP has opted for Jean-Claude Juncker, a political heavyweight with two decades of EU experience as Prime Minister of Luxembourg.

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It remains unclear at this point whether either Mr Schulz or Mr Juncker could count on the support of the required majorities in both the European Parliament and the Council, which is required for the nomination to be successful. Many analysts, as well as current Members of the European Parliament, expect that an entirely new candidate could be chosen in June 2014 if neither Mr Juncker nor Mr Schulz secures the nomination. ∼ The other official candidates

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The liberal ALDE group’s candidate, Guy Verhofstadt, may be an underdog in the contest but could conceivably win the position if the Council and Parliament cannot agree on a joint candidate from either the EPP or S&D groups. However, his outspoken federalist credentials will count against him in some national capitals, notably London.

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The candidates for the other political groups, the environmentalist Greens and the far-left GUE/NGL, are not seen as credible contenders for Commission President as they are relatively small political forces in the Parliament and have little support among national governments in Europe.


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Group: European People’s Party (EPP)

Main contender:

Jean-Claude Juncker

Mr. Juncker was formally nominated as candidate for President of the European Commission by the European People’s Party in Dublin on 7 March 2014. Current position

Former Prime Minister of Luxembourg

Nationality

Luxembourgish

Date of birth

9 December 1954 (age 59)

National party

Parti populaire chrétien social (CSV)

Contact

http://juncker.epp.eu

Assessment of candidacy

[+] Mr Juncker is the front-runner to become the next President of the European Commission, having been nominated by the EPP, currently the largest group in the European Parliament and likely to remain one of the most powerful political forces in the Parliament after the elections. He enjoys the personal backing of German Chancellor Angela Merkel, whose preference as leader of the EU’s largest Member State will play a major role in the nomination process.

[–] However, his chances are to some extent dependent on the outcome of the European Parliament elections in May 2014: If the EPP were to lose its place as the largest group in the Parliament, this could jeopardise Mr Juncker’s candidacy as he needs a simple majority (at least 376 MEPs) to support his nomination. Should the left-of-centre S&D become the largest group, it is conceivable that a left-wing majority in the Parliament could block Mr. Juncker’s nomination.

Policy priorities Mr. Juncker has said that his first priority as Commission President would be introducing measures to reduce youth unemployment in Europe. However, given his former role within the Eurozone and the support he has received from Chancellor Merkel, he would also be expected to champion fiscal prudence across the EU to tackle the sovereign debt crisis.

Curriculum vitae   

First permanent President of the Eurogroup of Eurozone Finance Ministers (2005 - 2013) Prime Minister of Luxembourg (1995 – 2013) Has held numerous posts in the Government of Luxembourg, including Secretary of State for Labour and Social Security Minister for the Budget and Finance Minister


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Group: Socialists & Democrats (S&D)

Main contender: Martin

Schulz

Mr Schulz was formally nominated as candidate for President of the European Commission by the Party of European Socialists on 6 November 2013. Current position

President of the European Parliament

Nationality

German

Date of birth

20 December 1955 (age 58)

National party

Sozialdemokratische Partei (SDP)

Contact

http://www.martin-schulz.eu


[+] Mr Schulz is a clear contender for the position of Commission President, with a strong presence in Brussels and support among a large majority of the EU’s social democratic parties. The S&D Group to which he belongs is also on track, according to some forecasts, to become the European Parliament’s largest, potentially delivering a left-of-centre majority when the Parliament votes to approve or reject the next Commission President.

[–] Mr Schulz is likely to struggle to find a qualified majority of Member State Governments to back his nomination, a key procedural requirement. Many EU Governments are openly hostile to his nomination. German Chancellor Angela Merkel is known to favour EPP candidate Juncker. He notably lacks the support of the British and French social democrats with the Conservative-led British government briefing against Mr Schulz’ nomination based on both his left-wing credentials and outspoken preference for “more Europe”.

Policy priorities Mr. Schulz has made tackling unemployment, particularly in crisis-hit Southern Europe, his main priority if he secures the Commission Presidency. In line with his social-democratic credentials, this would likely include a significant emphasis on workers’ rights, possibly extending to efforts to roll out minimum wage legislation across the EU.

Curriculum vitae 

President of the European Parliament (since 2012)

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Member of the European Parliament (since 1994)

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Mr Schulz worked in bookshops and publishing houses prior to his political career


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Group: Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ALDE)

Secondary candidate:

Guy Verhofstadt

Mr Verhofstadt was formally nominated as candidate for President of the European Commission by ALDE on 1 February 2014. Current position

Member of the European Parliament; Leader of the ALDE Group

Nationality

Belgian

Date of birth

11 April 1953 (age 60)

National party

Vlaamse Liberal en Democraten (VLD)

Contact

http://www.guyverhofstadt.be


[+] Although the ALDE Group’s total number of the seats in the European Parliament looks likely to be reduced after the elections, the group’s centrist position in between the EPP and S&D on many issues could nonetheless lend it a ‘kingmaker’ role if the Member States and Parliament cannot agree nominating either Mr Juncker or Mr Schulz as Commission President.

[–] Mr Verhofstadt’s outspoken preference for a federal Europe are likely to count against him within the Council though, as many of the more Eurosceptic Member States – notably the UK – are expected to opt for a less outspoken candidate.

Policy priorities Mr. Verhofstadt has described the completion of the EU’s banking union and prudential supervisory system as a key priority, calling it vital to “truly escape” the economic downturn. In a bid to stimulate economic growth, Mr. Verhofstadt has also called for more rapid implementation of the “Digital Agenda”, saying that EU funding for investment in telecommunications infrastructure should be increased to boost the digital economy.


Leader of the ALDE Group (since 2009)

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Prime Minister of Belgium (1999 – 2008)

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Member of the Belgian Parliament (1982 – 2009)

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Mr. Verhofstadt been active in Belgian politics since studying law in Ghent in the 1970s


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Group: Greens / European Free Alliance Secondary candidate:

José Bové

Secondary candidate:

Franziska Keller

Mr Bové and Ms Keller were formally nominated as the Greens’ joint candidates on 29 January 2014. Current position

Member of the European Parliament

Current position

Member of the European Parliament

Nationality

French

Nationality

German

Date of birth

11/06/1953 (age 60)

Date of birth

22/11/1981 (age 32)

National party

EELV

National party

Die Gruene

Contact

www.jose-bove.eu

Contact

www.ska-keller.de


[–] The Greens’ candidates have little chance of selecting the next President as its total size in the European Parliament is limited and its positions on a number of issues, notably relating to the environment, climate change and energy, clash with those of key Member States such as Germany and the UK. In addition, the group has chosen to select two lead candidates for the 2014 electoral campaign and it remains unclear which of the two candidates would actually become Commission President should the Greens’ nomination be successful.

Policy priorities A noted supporter of the “alter-globalization movement”, Mr Bove’s policy interests are mainly in agriculture, opposing the cultivation of genetically modified crops.

Ms Keller’s policy interests include trade and development, migration, gender equality and the EU’s relations with Turkey. She has been very critical of the EU-US trade agreement.

He opposes the proposed EU-US free trade agreement, arguing that the trade pact would benefit corporation at the expense of workers and consumers.

Ms Keller is also a vocal opponent of the EU’s migration and asylum policy and has called for EU border agency FRONTEX to stop operating in Greece.


Co-leader of the European Greens (since 2009)

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Vice-Chair of the European Parliament’s Committee on Agriculture and Rural Development (since 2012)

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Founding members of France’s Trade Union of Agricultural Workers and Farmer’s Confederation.

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Spokesperson of the Federation of Young European Greens (2005-2009) Member of youth wing of the German Greens (since 2001)


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Group: European United Left/Nordic Green Left Secondary candidate:

Alexis Tsipras

Mr. Tsipras was formally nominated as GUE/NGL’s candidate on 15 December 2013. Current position

Member of the Greek Parliament

Nationality

Greek

Date of birth

28 July 1974 (age 39)

National party

SYRIZA

Contact

www.alexistsipras.eu


[+] Mr Tsipras has become a well-known European political figure through his outspoken drive to ditch Greece’s bail-out programme because of its perceived negative consequences for the country’s population. The parties affiliated with the GUE/NGL group are projected to do well in the European elections, potentially overtaking the centrist ALDE group.

[–] However, the MEP has virtually no chance of becoming the next President of the European Commission. His politics place him on the far-left of the political spectrum, and his anti-austerity policies will not find him any favour in Germany, the Netherlands or Scandinavia. Currently, GUE/NGL-affiliated parties are not in Government anywhere in Europe.

Policy priorities His policy interests are primarily related to social and economic policy and he is strong critic of Europe’s current austerity policies, describing them as “neoliberal hegemony”. Mr Tspiras supports Greece’s membership of the Eurozone, but nonetheless wants Athens to unilaterally revoke the current bail-out agreement with the EU under which, he argues, unemployment has risen and public services reduced. Mr. Tspiras supports higher tax on the wealthiest in society and the nationalisation of public services and utilities.


Leader of the opposition radical-left SYRIZA party in the Greek Parliament (since 2010)

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Vice-President of the European Left Party

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Mr Tsipras joined the Young Communist Society in the late 1980s and unsuccessfully represented SYRIZA in the Athens mayoral elections in 2006


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Potential main contender:

compromise candidate

Assessment of candidacy The appointment of the next President of the European Commission looks set to lead to a clash between Europe’s centre-right and centre-left parties, represented by the EPP and S&D political groups respectively. The Socialists have nominated Martin Schulz, the current President of the European Parliament, whereas the EPP has opted for Jean-Claude Juncker, a political heavyweight with two decades of EU experience as Prime Minister of Luxembourg. However, there is no legal obligation for either candidate to be formally selected for the position. If the European Parliament and the Member States cannot agree on either candidate, the nomination could go to a new candidate entirely. This is seen by some analysts as the likely outcome, given the relatively lacklustre support for both Mr Juncker and Mr Schulz. Potential candidates that could be nominated if neither Mr. Juncker nor Mr. Schulz secures the nomination: 

Guy Verhofstadt, official ALDE candidate (ALDE, Belgium)

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Christine Lagarde, head of the International Monetary Fund (EPP, France)

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Helle Thorning-Schmidt, Danish Prime Minister (S&D, Denmark)

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Olli Rehn, EU Economic Affairs Commissioner (ALDE, Finland)

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Michel Barnier, EU Internal Market Commissioner (EPP, France)

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Alex Stubb, Finnish European Affairs Minister (EPP, Finland)

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Anders Fogh Rasmussen, NATO Secretary General (EPP, Denmark)

The formal nomination for the next President of the European Commission will be made by EU Heads of State and Government at a summit in Brussels on 26-27 June 2014.


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Overview: selection process of the European Commission

22-25 May 2014 European elections

June 2014 Consultations between MEPs and Council on the new Commission 27 June 2014 Council nominates Commission President 16 July 2014 Parliament votes on new Commission President August 2014 Council nominates remaining 27 Commissioners

September 2014 Parliament holds Committee hearings

20-23 October 2014 Parliament votes on new Commission as a whole 1 November 2014 New Commission appointed by the Council


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