CASE OF THE PORTS OF EASTERN BALTIC

USING THE METHODS OF SPATIAL ANALYSIS IN STUDENT RESEARCHES (CASE OF THE PORTS OF EASTERN BALTIC REGION) Semenova I.V. ([email protected]), Lachininskii S. S., Anokhin A.A. Saint-Petersburg State University ABSTRACT BACKGROUND In this article on the basis of existing scientific approaches in domestic and foreign special literature the necessity of using the different methods of economic-mathematical and spatial analysis in students’ papers was shown. On the example of the case related to the assessment of the competitive advantages of domestic Eastern Baltic ports, the authors demonstrate how can be used, clearly presented and interpreted the results of the economic-mathematical and spatial analysis of student work. As the object of this study ten Eastern Baltic ports were selected, namely the Big Port of St. Petersburg (cargo), Ust-Luga, Primorsk, Vysotsk, Kaliningrad, Liepaja, Riga, Tallinn, Klaipeda, Ventspils. This region was chosen for this study because, on the one hand, the ports of the Baltic Sea have traditionally the largest share of sea turnover of the Russian Federation; on the other hand, there is a need to assess ports’ position relative to its competitors in the region. METHODS In this article we use different methods of analyzing data. With the help of correlation analysis we check an existing of relationship between cargo turnover of Russian ports and the structure of foreign trade activities. All study sites (ports) were put in the Cartesian coordinate system with the help of geocalculator and shown on the graph with the help of graphical tools. The icons that mark ports are spaced from each other in accordance with the real situation. Further, we are using the areaof circles shown the volume of cargo of each port for the period from January to September 2014. Based on the growth rates of turnover and market share with the help of the Boston Consulting Group matrix (BCG) we divided ports into three categories: leaders, perspective and outsiders. RESULTS It was revealed that the cargo turnover of Russian ports is much affected by changes in the structure of foreign trade activities (import, especially) and to a lesser extent on factors such as tariff policy, infrastructure development and the actions of competitors. Based on data of 2014 (January-September), it was shown how the balance of "power" is changing now in the Eastern Baltic; the reasons for these changes were analyzed. UstLuga, Vysotsk and Riga showed significant growth rate, at around the same time, Primorsk, Tallinn and Ventspils showed reduction in cargo turnover. In each case, the reason of such changes is different: reduction in the volume of shipment of oil and oil products, overload capacity, infrastructure, political reasons, innovation and so on. Ports were divided into three categories: leaders, perspective and outsiders. The leaders are three Russian port of St. Petersburg, Ust-Luga and Primorsk. Ust-Luga refers to the fastest growing object, showing 22.1% for nine months of 2014. These ports as prospective in every respect require an additional funding. A the same time

competitive advantage of foreign ports to Russian ports are efficient marketing strategies, high level of management, the presence of free economic zones in ports. CONCLUSIONS With the help of the simple case study dedicated to the identification of competitive advantage of russian ports in the Eastern Baltic, we have shown how different methods of analysis can be used in economic and geographical papers of students, and how getting results of scientific research can be interpreted. KEYWORDS: spatial analysis, sea port, education, economic and geographic methods, Baltic region. ARTICLE INTRODUCTION At the present stage of development, it is evident that multidisciplinary geospatial paradigm brings together not only Human Geography and Spatial Economy, but also involves to its orbit such new areas as geomarketing, geo-economics [1-3], spatial or territorial planning [4-6] and others. According to P.V. Minakir and A.N. Demyanenko "Spatial aspects have become today one of the most popular objects of analysis not only of the economics but also of a number of allied disciplines" [7]. V.N. Lazhentsev points out that "... the actualization of the theory and methodology of " spatial development " is attributable to the rise of the role of interdisciplinary synthesis" [8]. This synthesis is, in many ways, based on the major approaches developed and adapted in geographical science - systematic, integrated, geosituational, territorial, genetic, cluster, space, geo-economical and global economical (world-system). The traditional geographical approach is spatial approach, which goes back to the works of A. Lösch, 1959; W. Izard, 1956 and P. Haggett, 1965. It was synthesized in the framework of the economic and geographical and regional science, developing with parallel paths in the second half of XX century on the same epistemological and methodological foundation. In some recent studies [9], spatial data analysis methods are used to characterize the relationship between the economic variable in one region and other neighboring regions in order to identify patterns of spatial association, spatial group and the allocation of atypical localizations. On the other hand, the "spatial analysis - the study of the spatial «geometry» («pattern») of each of the territorial system, i.e., its inner and outer shape (configuration)"[10]. The use of spatial analysis in conjunction with other economic-mathematical methods, not only can solve very specific problems, but also provides an integrated view about the object, which, in turn, of course, is essential when writing student work on economic geography. METHODS As an object of research, we chose the ports of the east coast of the Baltic Sea, namely russian ports - Big Port of St. Petersburg, Vysotsk, Primorsk, Kaliningrad, Ust-Luga, latvian ports - Riga, Liepaja, Ventspils, lithuanian ports - Klaipeda with Butinge terminal, Estonia - Tallinn. In this article we use different methods of analyzing data. With the help of correlation analysis we check an existing of relationship between cargo

turnover of Russian ports and the structure of foreign trade activities. All study sites (ports) were put in the Cartesian coordinate system with the help of geocalculator and shown on the graph with the help of graphical tools. The icons that mark ports are spaced from each other in accordance with the real situation. Further, we are using the areaof circles shown the volume of cargo of each port for the period from January to September 2014. Based on the growth rates of turnover and market share with the help of the Boston Consulting Group matrix (BCG) we divided ports into three categories: leaders, perspective and outsiders. All these methods help us to assess the competitive advantages of the russian ports in the region. RESULTS We choose precisely Baltic region because the ports of the Baltic Sea have traditionally the largest share of sea turnover in the Russian Federation. From January to September 2014 cargo turnover of the region increased by 5.1% - up to 168.9 million tons. At the same time transshipment of dry cargo increased by 9.4% and 2.5% of bulk cargoes. Domestic ports of the Baltic Sea are characterized by the fact that most of the imported goods transported through them, more than all other sea russian ports as a whole. This is due to the fact that in the Northwestern Federal District (NWFD) of Russia in general indicators of imports higher than exports. It is obviusly (Figure 1), even without correlation analysis, that the turnover of the port is closely linked to changes in the growth rates of exports and imports in the region. And if we rely on the statistical evaluation of the relationship between growth rates of turnover of russian ports of the Baltic sea and growth rates of foreign trade activities (2013-2014 years) of the Northwestern Federal District of Russia we will get that more than 70% of the turnover of the port depends on the dynamics of changes in the structure of exports and imports, and the remaining accounts tariff policy, expansion of the area and the improvement of port infrastructure, competition from other terminals etc. With the view to demonstrate the placing of "forces" on the Eastern Baltic, we have displayed ports in Cartesian coordinate system (Figure 2). We recalculated coordinates in degrees in geocentric, i.e. the icons that mark ports are spaced from each other in accordance with the real situation. Further, we are using the circles shown the volume of cargo of each port: area of a circle corresponds to the port cargo turnover for the period from January to September 2014. It should be noted that for this period of time the largest turnover among all the ports takes the port of Ust-Luga, which is developing very active in recent years. Ust-Luga shows also for the same period of time the highest growth rate of turnover + 22.1% [11]. At the time, Tallynn, Ventspils, Kaliningrad and Primorsk have a negative growth rates of turnover. The decline in turnover in foreign ports was primarily due to the reduction of oil and petroleum products. Klaipeda shows low growth rate because of the retroactivity of the sanctions (Russia throws overboard from transit services of this lithuanian port) [12]. When interpreting the data it is necessary to take into account the fact that the capacity of the foreign Baltic ports are overloaded, while the ports of Russia are at the stage of intensive development. Implementation of innovation, development of the logistic and supporting infrastructure give to the Russian ports competitive advantages.

Analysis of the market share of cargo turnover and growth rate of the market, made with the help of the Matrix of Boston Consulting Group (BCG) shows a lack of the ports, which would be characterized by a high share of the market and the relatively low market growth (Figure 3). Most of the ports are concentrated in the upper left quadrant (group "perspective") - with the high growth rate and a relatively small share of the market - this group includes all foreign ports except Ventspils (which fell in outsider position) and domestic Kaliningrad and Vysotsk. The group of "leaders" includes UstLuga, St. Petersburg and Primorsk ports. These ports are promising in all respects and require additional financing in order to maintain its market share. GRAFS Fig.1. Dynamics of freight turnover of Russian ports of Eastern Baltic, export and import of the Northwestern Federal District (2010-2014). 200 180 160 140 120

IMPORT NWFD

100

EXPORT NWFD

80

turnover of NWFD ports

60 40

20 0 2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Compiled by the authors: http://www.russianports.ru; http://sztu.customs.ru/index.php

Fig. 2 Graphical display of the ports of the Eastern Baltic coast in geocentric coordinates indicating the volume and the dynamics of their turnover in JanuarySeptember 2014

Compiled by the authors: http://www.baltic-course.com; http://www.russianports.ru; http://portnews.ru Fig.3.The growth-share matrix (Boston Consulting Group): classification of eastern Baltic ports

Compiled by the authors: http://www.baltic-course.com; http://www.russianports.ru; http://portnews.ru.

DISCUSSIONS Despite such encouraging economic indicators for the russian ports, it must be emphasized that the level of control, tariff policy, marketing strategies of foreign Baltic ports and free zones located in their territory provide them safe competitive advantage [13]. It would be wrong not to take into account this fact, although these features are extremely difficult to estimate. Paper is produced with the financial support of the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (grant №14-06-31106) REFERENCES 1) Anokhin A.A., Lachininskii S.S. Evolution of the Ideas and Contents of Geoeconomic Studies // Regional Research of Russia. – 2015. – vol.1 (5). – pp. 82-87 2) Lachininskii S. S. Modern trends in geoeconomic studies in Russia // Regional Research of Russia. - 2012. - vol. 1 (2). - pp.80-86 3) Blagoje S. Babić. Geo-economics -reality & science//Megatrend Rev. 2009. Vol. 6 (1). P. 27-54. 4) Анохин А.А., Мякиненков В.М. Актуальные прикладные проблемы экономической и социальной географии России // Известия Русского географического общества. - 2013. - Т.145. - №1. - с. 20-30 5) Чистобаев А.И. Пространственное планирование в России: состояние, проблемы, задачи географов // Социально-экономическая география. Вестник Ассоциации российских географов-обществоведов. - 2013. - № 1 (2). - с. 15-24 6) Чистобаев А.И. Территориальное планирование на уровне субъектов России / монография / А. И. Чистобаев, О. В. Красовская, С. В. Скатерщиков ; Санкт-Петербургский гос. ун-т, Фак. география и геоэкология, Науч.-проектный ин-т пространственного планирования "ЭНКО". Санкт-Петербург, 2010. 7) Minakir P.A. (Минакир П.А.), Demianenko A.N.(Демьяненко А.Н.) Пространственная экономика: эволюция подходов и методология // Пространственная экономика. - 2010. - №2. - с.6-32. 8) Lazhentsev V.N. (Лаженцев В.Н.) Пространственное развитие (примеры Севера и Арктики) // Известия Коми научного центра УрО РАН. - 2010. № 1. - с. 97-104. 9) Eleonora Patacchini, Patricia Rice Geography and Economic Performance: Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis for Great Britain // Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals.- 2007.- vol. 41(4). - pp. 489-508. 10) Tarkhov S.A. Human Geography: its nature, subject, methodology// Regional researches.- 2013.- №3(41).- pp.9-13. 11) Semenova I.V., Lachininskii S. S. The role of geo-economic space elements in the development of national economic interests// http://econpapers.repec.org/paper/wiwwiwrsa/ersa14p62.htm/, 2014. 12) Zhelezkova P.E. , V.G. Nikiforov Cargo turnover ports of northwest region Russia on the Baltic sea // Vestnik of state university of sea and river fleet named after admiral S.O. Makarov. - 2013. - vol.№6.- pp.133-138

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