Chapter 9: Coastal Issues

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Chapter 9: Coastal Issues Coordinating Lead Authors: Margaret R. Caldwell (Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment; Stanford Law School), Eric Hartge (Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment) Lead Authors: Lesley Ewing (California Coastal Commission), Gary Griggs (University of California Santa Cruz), Ryan Kelly (Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment), Susanne Moser (Susanne Moser Research and Consulting), Sarah Newkirk (The Nature Conservancy, California), Rebecca Smyth (NOAA-Coastal Service Center), Brock Woodson (Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment) Review Editors: Rebecca Lunde (NOAA)

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Executive Summary: Scientific understanding of the drivers of El Niño Southern Oscillation and

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Pacific Decadal Oscillation climate cycles is still evolving, but the severity of coastal

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erosion, flooding, and other shoreline hazards will increase due to future sea-level rise

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and continued coastal development alone (high confidence). Increased intensity (medium

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confidence) and changes in frequency (medium low confidence) of storm events along

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different parts of the California coastline will further aggravate the expected impacts.

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The implications of global sea-level rise for coastal areas cannot be understood in

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isolation from other, shorter-term sea-level variability related to El Niño Southern

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Oscillation (ENSO) events, storms or tides. The highest probability and most damaging

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events for the near term will be large ENSO events when elevated sea levels occur

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simultaneously with high tides and large waves (during storms). In addition, because the

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sea level baseline is rising continuously, less severe ENSO events will impose impacts as

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severe as those experienced in the past. Between today and 2050, or when sea levels

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approach ~14-16 inches above the 2000 baseline, the effects of sea-level rise (flooding

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and inundation) and combined effects of sea-level rise and large waves will result in

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property damage, erosion and flood losses far greater than experienced now or in the past.

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(high confidence, >66% likely)

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Ocean warming affects a range of ecosystem processes from changes in species

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distribution to reduced oxygen content and sea level rise (medium high confidence),

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however, there is considerable uncertainty about how changes in species distributions and

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lower oxygen content of ocean waters will impact marine ecosystems, fisheries, and

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coastal communities. 2


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Coastal wetlands and beach habitats will be affected by sea-level rise. In the

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presence of natural (topographic) or artificial impediments, or in the presence of

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inadequate sediment supply, these habitats will not be able to migrate landward (high

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confidence). Coastal development and other land uses impact both of these factors by

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changing sediment regimes through ground disturbance, hardening, or creation of

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impermeable surfaces, and by occupying and protecting space into which wetlands might

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otherwise migrate. Loss of coastal wetlands means loss of the numerous benefits they

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provide, including flood protection, water treatment, recreation, carbon sequestration,

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biodiversity, and wildlife habitat (high confidence). Communities will need to factor

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these impacts into their adaptation strategies as they depend on and benefit from these

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ecosystem services economically, culturally, and ecologically.

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Ocean acidification is a significant threat to calcium-carbonate-dependent species

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and marine ecosystems (high confidence), but there is substantial uncertainty about

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acidification’s precise impacts on coastal fisheries and marine food webs.

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Critical infrastructure, such as highways, railroads, power plants, wastewater

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treatment plants, pumping stations and transmission lines, have been located close to the

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coast where they are now exposed to damage from erosion or flooding. With rising sea

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level, risks to this infrastructure will increase and more infrastructure will be exposed to

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future damage from erosion and flooding (high confidence). Much of the US

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infrastructure is in need of repair or replacement and the California coast is no exception;

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impacts from climate change will add to the stress on communities to maintain

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functionality (high confidence).

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Coastal communities have a variety of options and tools at hand to prepare for

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climate change impacts and to minimize the severity of now-unavoidable consequences

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of climate warming and disruption. While many coastal communities are increasingly

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interested in and have begun planning for adaptation, the use of these tools and

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implementation of adaptive policies is still insufficient compared with the magnitude of

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the expected harm (high confidence).

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9.1 Coastal Assets

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People are drawn to the coast for its moderate climate, scenic beauty, cultural and

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ecological richness, rural expanses, abundant recreational opportunities, vibrant

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economic activity, and diverse urban communities.1 More than 70% of California

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residents live and work in coastal counties (U.S. Census Bureau 2012). Over the last

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thirty-eight years, California coastal county population has grown 64%, from about 16.8

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million in 1970 to 27.6 million in 2008 (NOEP 2012). Almost 86% of California’s total

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gross domestic product comes from coastal counties (NOEP 2010).

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Population density along with the presence of critical infrastructure and valued

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real estate along the coast accentuates the importance of the coast to the region’s

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economy. California has the nation’s largest ocean-based economy, valued at

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approximately $46 billion annually, with over 90% of this coming from (1) tourism and

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recreation and (2) ports and harbors (Kildow and Colgan 2005).

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In addition, the state’s natural coastal systems perform a variety of economically

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valuable functions, including water quality protection, commercial and recreational fish

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The term “coast” refers to the open coast and estuaries.

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production, plant and wildlife habitat, flood mitigation, recreation, carbon storage,

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sediment and nutrient transport, and storm buffering. The non-market value of coastal

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recreation in California alone exceeds $30 billion annually (Pendleton 2009). These

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benefits, provided at almost no cost, would be impossible to replicate with human

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engineered solutions.

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9.2 Present Threats

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9.2.1 Overview

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The coast is constantly changing due to human development and physical forces.

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Just as growth in coastal populations and economic development has reshaped the

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coastline with new homes, roads, and infrastructure, so too physical forces and processes-

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––including waves, tides, currents, wind, storms, rain, and runoff––combine to accrete,

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erode, and continually reshape the coastline and modify coastal ecosystems. With the

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increase in the rate of sea-level rise and warmer ocean temperatures related to global

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climate change, the effects of these physical forces will be more significant and harmful

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to coastal areas in the future (high confidence).

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9.2.2 Physical environment The physical forces and processes that take place in the coastal environment occur

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across different spatial and temporal scales. The Pacific Basin, including the ocean off

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California, oscillates between warm and cool phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation

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(PDO), associated with differences in atmospheric pressure. Ultimately, wind patterns

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and storm tracks are affected. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events tend to have 5


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stronger effects during warm phases of the PDO and are typified by warmer ocean water

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and higher sea levels, more rainfall and flooding, and more frequent and vigorous coastal

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storms, which result in greater beach and bluff erosion (Storlazzi and Griggs 2000).

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These conditions also affect relative abundance of important coastal forage fisheries, such

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as sardines and anchovies (Chavez et al. 2003).

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Sea level along the coast of California has risen gradually over the past century

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(by about 20 cm, or 8 in.), a rate that will accelerate in the future (see Figure 9.1). Sea-

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level rise alone, however, will have far less impact on the shoreline, infrastructure, or

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habitat over the next 30 or 40 years, than will the combination of elevated sea levels, high

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tides and storm waves associated with large ENSO events (high confidence). Moreover,

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the effects of less severe ENSO events will be magnified by progressively higher sea

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levels such that, in the future, coastal communities can expect more severe damages from

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these events than have occurred in the past (see Figure 9.2) (high confidence).

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[Figure 9.1 about here]

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Furthermore, changes in global climate cycles, such as the PDO, may soon

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become an imminent and significant factor in accelerating regional sea-level rise

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(medium high confidence). While over the past century there has been a gradual increase

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in sea levels, since about 1993, California tide gauges have recorded very little long-term

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change in sea level. This “flat” sea level condition had been out of sync with the

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prevailing global rise in sea level and the historic trends in sea-level rise along the west

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coast. The PDO causes differences in sea-surface elevation across the Pacific. Sea levels

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have been higher in the Western Pacific and lower along the California coast over the

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past two decades, a warm phase of the PDO. This recent warm phase appears to have 6


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been related to a dramatic change in wind stress (Bromirski et al. 2011). This

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predominant wind stress regime along the U.S West Coast served to mitigate the trend of

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rising sea level, suppressing regional sea-level rise below the global rate. A change in

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wind stress patterns over the entire North Pacific may result in a resumption of sea-level

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rise along the West Coast approaching or exceeding the global mean sea-level rise rate

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(medium high confidence) (Bromirski et al. 2011).

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9.2.3 Development and human changes to the coast The nature of most human development is increasingly in conflict with the

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physical and climatic forces that occur along the coast. Efforts to protect development

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through shoreline armoring and beach nourishment often negatively impact coastal

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ecosystems (Caldwell and Segal 2007). Armoring the coast with hard structures may

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inhibit natural sediment movement, and thus prevent the accretion to and landward

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migration of beach and other coastal ecosystems. Armoring can also increase

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vulnerability by encouraging development in erosion or flood-prone areas and giving

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those who live behind coastal armoring a false sense of security (Dugan et al. 2008).

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An increasing demand for water in coastal areas for domestic, agricultural, and

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industrial uses stresses the available surface water and ground water supplies. Increased

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withdrawals from rivers and streams damage the habitats of anadromous fish (species that

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spend most of their lives in the ocean but hatch and spawn in fresh water). The overdraft

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of coastal aquifers increases seawater intrusion, which requires water wells to be either

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deepened or abandoned, or water to be imported (Hanson, Martin, and Koczot 2003).

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Terrestrial runoff and wastewater discharges can be harmful to coastal areas and their 7


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effects are exacerbated when heavy rainfall washes large amounts of fertilizers and other

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pollutants from the land or causes wastewater systems to overflow and send untreated or

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inadequately treated wastes into streams, estuaries, and the ocean (Ho Ahn et al. 2005).

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Finally, the loss of wetlands from urbanization and development will reduce the

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resiliency of coastal ecosystems (high confidence) (California Natural Resources Agency

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2010).

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9.3 Projected Oceanic Impacts

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9.3.1 Sea-level rise

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In 2010, the California Ocean Protection Council issued interim guidance for

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projected sea-level rise for state and local agencies to use for project planning and

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development (see Table 9.1) (CO-CAT 2010). That same year, the state governments of

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California, Oregon, and Washington, along with several federal agencies—NOAA,

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USGS, and the Army Corps of Engineers—initiated a study with the National Academy

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of Sciences (NAS) to develop regional West Coast estimates of future sea-level rise to

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better inform state and local planning and agency decisions (Schwarzenegger 2008). The

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NAS report is expected to be released in spring 2012.

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[Table 9.1 about here]

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As the rate of sea-level rise increases, tidal wetlands and beaches either accrete

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vertically to keep up, become inundated, and/or “migrate” landward. Their fate depends

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on whether there is adequate sediment from nearby watersheds to increase wetland

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elevation as the sea rises and on the availability of space into which they can migrate

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(Snow 2010). Coastal development and other changes in land use affect this by altering 8


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sediment availability (by making soils harder, disturbing ground, or creating impermeable

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surfaces) and by occupying or protecting space into which wetlands might otherwise

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migrate. The loss of coastal wetlands means the loss of the numerous benefits they

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provide, including flood protection, water treatment, recreation, carbon sequestration,

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biodiversity, and wildlife habitat (King, McGregor, and Whittet 2011). Specifically, with

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a high scenario rise in sea level of 1.4 meters (4.6 ft.), approximately 97,000 acres of

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coastal wetlands in California will potentially be inundated; nearly 55% of these wetland

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areas may be able to migrate inland successfully with no loss of function; however, about

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45% could either lose habitat function or be unable to migrate (see Figure 9.4) (Heberger

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et al. 2009).

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Changes or trends for other coastal environmental conditions, such as atmospheric

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temperatures, precipitation patterns, river runoff, wave run-up, storm frequency and

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intensity, and fog persistence, are less well understood, often to the point that there is

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uncertainty about the direction of change, much less the extent of change for a specific

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region. In addition, there will be other changes from rising sea level. For example,

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“extreme events”—such as the contemporary understanding of 100-year floods—will

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occur more frequently as a result of both higher coastal storm surge due to sea-level rise

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and from inland runoff due to extreme rainfall events (medium high confidence). Tides

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will extend farther inland in coastal streams and rivers, and saltwater will penetrate

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farther into shallow coastal aquifers (medium high confidence) (Loaiciga, Pingel, and

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Garcia 2012).

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9.3.2 Sea Surface Temperature Change

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Direct climate change impacts, such as warming sea surface temperatures and

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ocean acidification, are expected to accelerate or exacerbate the impacts of present

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threats to coastal ecosystems, including pollution, habitat destruction, and over-fishing

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(medium high confidence) (Scavia et al. 2002). Warming atmospheric temperatures have

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already led to an increase in surface water temperatures and a decrease in the oxygen

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content of deeper waters (Bograd et al. 2008; Deutsch et al. 2011). Elevated surface

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temperatures and higher nutrient runoff have led to increased harmful algal blooms and

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increases in hypoxia in the coastal ocean (medium low confidence) (Kudela, Seeyave,

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and Cochlan 2010; Ryan, McManus, and Sullivan 2010). As waters in the oceans warm,

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species adapted to these conditions may be able to expand their native ranges and migrate

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into new regions. The number of invasive species, the rate of invasion, and resulting

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impacts will increase as warm waters expand poleward (see Figure 9.5) (medium high

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confidence) (Stachowicz 2002). For example, Humboldt squid have recently invaded

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central and northern California waters, preying on species of commercial importance

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such as Pacific hake (Zeidberg and Robison 2007). In addition, warmer waters lead to

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habitat loss for species that are adapted to very specific temperature ranges (Stachowicz

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2002).

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Changes in climate will alter the wind fields that drive coastal upwelling (medium

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low confidence) (Bakun 1990; Checkley and Barth 2009; Young, Zieger, and Babanin

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2011) It is not clear, however, if changing wind patterns will increase or decrease coastal

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upwelling or whether each may occur in different locations. Warming surface waters are 10


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expected to increase stratification and may deepen the thermocline (an abrupt

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temperature gradient extending from a depth of about 100m to 1000m), resulting in a

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decrease in the amount of nutrients that are delivered to the surface (medium low

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confidence). The timing of seasonal upwelling—during which cold, nutrient-rich water

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rises to the surface—may shift. Such a mismatch between physical and ecological

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processes can lead to significant ecosystem consequences (Pierce et al 2006; Barth et al.

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2007; Bakun et al. 2010). It is generally accepted that upwelling will be affected by

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climate change; however, experts differ over what specific changes will occur (medium

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low confidence) (Bakun 1990; Checkley and Barth 2009; Young, Zieger, and Babanin

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2011).

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Hypoxic events—the occurrence of dangerously low oxygen levels that can lead

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to widespread die-offs of fish or other organisms—will increase as stratification and

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coastal agricultural runoff increase (medium high confidence) (Chan et al. 2008). As

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waters warm they become less able to hold oxygen, resulting in long-term reductions in

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ocean oxygen content (high confidence) (Bograd et al. 2008; Deutsch et al. 2011).

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Current understanding is that because waters already are closer to hypoxic thresholds,

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weaker phytoplankton blooms and smaller nutrient inputs could initiate hypoxia, possibly

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leading to more frequent, larger, or longer-lasting events, even in regions that have not

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previously experienced hypoxia (medium high confidence).

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9.3.3 Ocean Acidification Increased atmospheric CO2 continues to dissolve in the ocean, making the ocean significantly more acidic than it was during the preindustrial age (Feeley, Doney, and 11


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Cooley 2009). More acidic seas will alter marine ecosystems in ways we do not yet fully

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understand, but several things are clear: 1) there will be ecological winners and losers as

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species respond differently to a changing environment (high confidence) (Fabry et al.

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2008; Kleypas et al. 2006); 2) areas of coastal upwelling and increased nutrient runoff

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will be the most affected (see Figure 9.6) (high confidence) (Kleypas et al. 2008; Kelly et

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al. 2011); and 3) an increase in the variance of pH in near-shore waters may be more

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biologically important than the changing global average pH, as high frequency peaks in

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the amount of CO2 dissolved in water can push marine species beyond their physiological

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tolerance limits (medium high confidence) (Hofmann et al. 2011, Thomsen et al. 2010).2

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Marine food webs are shifting in the acidified ocean. The best-known example is

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the dissolution of planktonic pteropod mollusks, which in turn robs salmon of a major

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food source and can lower their body masses substantially (Fabry et al. 2008). Much

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wider ecological impacts are inevitable as higher CO2 increases algal growth while

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hindering the development of shells and other hard parts in mollusks, corals, and other

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marine animals. These changes are already having direct economic effects: upwelling-

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intensified acidification has prevented natural Pacific oyster settlement in the Pacific

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Northwest for at least six consecutive years and caused several years of hatchery-bred

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oyster larvae to die out, sending reverberations throughout the industry (Welch 2010; also

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personal communication with Bill Dewey). While the oyster is a relatively small part of

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the U.S. seafood industry, about 75% ($3 billion) of the overall industry is directly or

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indirectly dependent upon calcium carbonate, the component of shell material that

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dissolves in more acidic waters; an acidified ocean may change which species the

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Personal communication with Carolyn Friedman, University of Washington.

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industry targets for cultivation (Langston 2011; Cooley and Doney 2009). Beyond these

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ecological and economic impacts, ocean acidification is also anticipated to pose direct

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threats to human health by increasing the number and intensity of harmful algal blooms,

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which can result in amnesic shellfish poisoning (medium low confidence) (Sun et al.

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2011; Tatters 2012). Existing policy tools to combat the effects of ocean acidification

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include improved coastal management and more stringent pollution controls under the

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U.S. Clean Water Act, but addressing the root cause will require reducing atmospheric

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CO2 globally (Kelly et al. 2011).

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9.4 Impacts to Human Communities

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9.4.1 Overview

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Development along coasts often places residences, community resources, and

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infrastructure at risk from floods or ongoing coastal erosion (See Figure 9.7). Sea-level

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rise will expand the areas at risk from flooding, accelerate erosion of coastal bluffs and

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dunes, and inundate large areas of coastal wetlands (Revell et al. 2012). Appendix A

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shows some of the current and future vulnerabilities to both flooding and erosion,

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developed by one model (Revell et al. 2012) that projected future erosion based on

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increased exposure of base of bluff to expected higher water level of 1.4-meter (4.6 ft.)

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rise in sea level by 2100 and no additional development along the coast beyond what

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existed in 2000. In addition, erosion could claim as much as nearly 9,000 acres of dunes

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and 17,000 acres of coastal bluffs from the open ocean coast between the

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California/Oregon border and Santa Barbara County (Revell et al. 2012).

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9.4.2 Air Transportation Infrastructure Several of California’s key transportation facilities are situated in coastal areas

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and will be affected by rising sea level. For example, the runways at both the San

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Francisco (SFO) and Oakland (OAK) International Airports will begin to flood with a 40-

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cm sea-level rise (within the 2050 sea-level rise scenarios in Table 9.1), severely

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impacting not only the airlines and passengers of the region but also air cargo, as SFO is

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the largest air cargo handler in the region and expects to double cargo throughput in the

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next thirty years (Metropolitan Transportation Commission 2004). Given the importance

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of these airports to the local economy, runway elevation or the development of some

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alternative response strategies will be required to avoid these debilitating impacts

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(Metropolitan Transportation Commission 2004).

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[Figure 9.7 about here] 9.4.3 Vehicular Transportation Infrastructure The rise in sea level and increased frequency and severity of storm events leads to

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a combination of increased inundation and erosion induced landslides. With even small

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sections of roadways disrupted due to these factors, the greater transportation network

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will be at risk (California Department of Transportation 2011). In May of 2011, the

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California Department of Transportation (DOT) prepared guidance on incorporating sea

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level rise into project programming and design by developing a three part screening

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criteria. If the project (1) is located on the coast or in an area vulnerable to sea level rise,

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and (2) will be impacted by the stated sea level rise (from SLR Interim Guidance), and

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(3) has a design life beyond 2030, then the Project Initiation Document requires further

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analysis on sea level rise adaptation (California Department of Transportation 2011). For 14


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projects in the pipeline beyond the initiation phase, DOT will handle them on a case-by-

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case basis through standard regulatory processes, especially the Coastal Development

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Permit process. Additional impacts to transportation, groundwater, and stormwater

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infrastructure along the California coast are examined in other chapters.

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9.4.4 Culture and Identity

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A large part of California culture and identity is invested in ocean and coastal

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resources and shoreline access, including beach-going, surfing, kayaking, hiking and

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diving, as well as recreational and commercial fishing. Thus, the socio-economic impacts

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to coastal communities from sea-level rise go well beyond losses to buildings, properties

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and infrastructure. For example, estimated losses to the Venice Beach community from a

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100-year flood event after a 1.4m (4.6 ft.) sea-level rise (the high 2100 scenario from

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Table 9.1) are $51.6 million (an increase of $44.6 million over present risk), which

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includes loss of tax revenue, beach-going spending, ecological value and other societal

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costs (King, MacGregor, and Whittet 2011). However, such estimates depend on a set of

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assumptions which—while reasonable—involve significant uncertainties. For example,

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the 1983 ENSO event caused over $215 million in damage statewide (In 2010 dollars,

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Griggs and Brown 1998); a similar event in 2100 would be significantly more damaging

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because the sea level will be higher, development is already more intensive, and property

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values are greater (high confidence) (Griggs and Brown 1998). Thus, future damages

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may be higher than the best available current economic science suggests. More research

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is needed on the human uses and values of coastal areas related to climate change and the

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impacts to the culture of coastal communities.

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Native American communities, such as the Yurok and Wiyot of northern

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California, are also examining traditional uses of coastal areas and the impacts to tribal

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lands of sea-level rise (including loss of land due to inundation) and undertaking coastal

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restoration projects. Along with Pacific Northwest tribes, they are also assessing the

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impacts to salmon of overall ecosystem changes.

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9.5 Preparing for and managing coastal climate change risks: What can and is being

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done?

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9.5.1 Overview

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While about 40% of the backshore area (above the high-water line) along the

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California coast is in public (federal and non-federal) ownership and largely protected

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from development and hard armoring3 (USACE 1971), about 107 miles or 10% of the

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state’s coastline had already been hardened as of 2001 (Griggs, Patsch, and Savoy 2005)

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and more than 90% of the coast’s historical wetland areas have been lost or converted

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due to diking, drainage and development (Dahl 1990; Gleason et al. 2011; Van Dyke and

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Wasson 2005). Due to the high degree of coastal development, and the concentration of

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population, infrastructure, economic activity and thus wealth in coastal counties, we can

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expect continued and growing pressure to protect these assets and activities from rising

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sea levels. Further concentration of wealth, infrastructure, and people along the coast—

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which historically has resulted in the tendency to protect and harden developed 3

There is no direct link between land ownership and reliance upon shoreline armoring. Public ownership does not guarantee a natural shoreline, and since much of the public backshore may be used for public infrastructure such as roads or parking lots, armoring might also be present. Conversely, private ownership does not necessarily mean there will be development or that coastal armoring will be present. In general however, areas of open space or with low-intensity development are most likely to experience natural shoreline dynamics without human interference.

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shorelines—is expected to increase the risk of loss of the remaining natural coastal

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ecosystems (California Natural Resources Agency 2009; Hanak and Moreno 2008).

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As mentioned previously, in March 2011 the California Ocean Protection Council

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issued interim sea-level rise guidance for state and local agencies, thus implementing one

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of the key strategies proposed in California’s first statewide adaptation plan (Ocean

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Protection Council 2011; California Natural Resources Agency 2009). While not

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mandatory, this guidance gives state and local government agencies and officials a

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scientifically vetted basis for planning and permitting decisions. The guidance will need

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to be regularly updated as new scientific information becomes available (e.g., in the

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forthcoming NRC study on sea-level rise along the West Coast). Pragmatically, the

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management and planning mechanisms through which local governments in California

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are making adaptive changes include general plan updates, climate action or adaptation

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plans, local coastal program updates, and regulations such as tax or building codes, and

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special or regular infrastructure upgrades (Moser and Ekstrom 2011). A selected list of

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climate adaptation planning resources can be found in Appendix B.

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9.5.2 Adaptation options Coastal managers have several adaptation options (NOAA 2011; NRC 2010; Grannis 2011; USAID 2009) that typically fall into three categories.

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First, structural protection measures such as seawalls and revetments as well as beach

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replenishment have frequently been the preferred option for local governments trying to

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protect public shorelines and adjacent coastal properties (and thus the property and 17


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commercial tax base) and maintain or enhance opportunities for coastal tourism.

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Historically, many beach nourishment projects in California have been opportunistic in

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the sense that they were a means of disposing sand dredged or produced from harbors and

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coastal construction rather than stand-alone projects for nourishing beaches. In many

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instances, however, hardening the shoreline along the coast has resulted in harmful

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environmental and ecological impacts, both directly in front of the hardened shoreline

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and downdrift from it. Such impacts include passive erosion or beach loss in front of the

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hardened shoreline, visual impacts (see Figure 9.8), and reduced public access along the

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shoreline (Griggs 2005). The impacts of shoreline protection within interior waterways––

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such as bays or estuaries––include loss of tidal prisms (the volume of water leaving an

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estuary at ebb tide) and loss of coastal wetlands (and thus important bird habitat, fishery

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nursing grounds, and the capacity of such natural buffers to retain flood waters) (Griggs

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1997; Runyan and Griggs 2003).

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Second, adaptation measures that continue to allow coastal occupancy and yet

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aim to reduce risks of coastal erosion and flooding are common elements of hazard-

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mitigation plans in coastal communities. These measures could include adjustments to

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building codes (such as requirements for how flood-prone basements can or cannot be

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used within flood zone areas) or modifications to standards for development and coastal

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construction (such as building setbacks and impervious surface limits, the amount of

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freeboard and other flood protection measures, including onsite stormwater retention and

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treatment).

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Generally speaking, the appropriate measures depend on the environment in

406

which they are being made: for cliff and bluff top construction, building codes containing

407

standards for the depth of pilings and/or to improve onsite water drainage to minimize

408

cliff erosion may be considered; for low lying areas, coastal plains, beaches, and bayside

409

waterfront areas, development standards requiring construction above base flood

410

elevations and setbacks from high-risk flood risk areas may be most relevant.

411

Finally, a variety of adaptation measures focus on reducing exposure to the risks

412

associated with climate change and coastal hazards. Such measures might take the form

413

of planned retreat from the shoreline or the restoration of natural coastal buffers such as

414

dunes and wetlands. Of particular value are strategies that incorporate natural resource

415

values and management (Convention on Biological Diversity 2009). Ecosystem-based

416

adaptation is an approach that simultaneously builds ecological resilience and reduces the

417

vulnerability of both human and natural communities to climate change. It is based on the

418

premise that sustainably managed natural and managed ecosystems can provide social,

419

economic, and environmental benefits, both directly through the preservation of innately

420

valuable biological resources and indirectly through the protection of ecosystem services

421

that these resources provide humans (World Bank Staff 2010; Coll, Ash, and Ikkala

422

2009). Such restoration or preservation of wetlands and beaches is valuable both along

423

natural shorelines and in front of existing seawalls or levees if done in combination with

424

groins to trap sand. In the face of a continually retreating shoreline, however, it is

425

unrealistic to expect that a permanent beach can be (re)created and maintained in front of

426

a seawall or levee. Examples of ecosystem-based approaches along the California

427

shoreline include managed retreat (or realignment) projects at Pacifica State Beach and 19


428

the Surfers Point project at Ventura Beach, both of which improved recreation and habitat

429

values while reducing long-term costs and exposure to risks. Additional case studies

430

illustrating both climate change risks and the efforts made to date toward adapting to

431

them can be found in the state’s 2009 Climate Adaptation Strategy, in the Pacific Council

432

on International Policy’s 2010 advisory report for the state, in the Solution Choices for a

433

Sustainable Southwest chapter of this report, and in case studies cited throughout this

434

chapter.4

435

[Callout box 9.1 about here]

436


437


438 439

9.5.3 Level of preparedness and engagement in adaptation planning

440

In 2005, a survey of California coastal counties and communities assessed coastal

441

managers’ awareness of the risks associated with climate change and the degree to which

442

they had begun preparing, planning for, and actively managing these risks in their coastal

443

management activities (Moser and Tribbia 2006/2007; Moser 2007). The vast majority of

444

surveyed coastal managers agreed that climate change is real and is already happening,

445

and showed significant concern about the associated risks. As of 2005, however, very few

446

local governments had taken up the challenge of developing strategies to deal with them.

447

In a follow-up survey conducted in summer 2011, some important shifts could be

448

noted (see Figure 9.9).5 Most remarkable was the increase in the level of activity on

449

adaptation from 2005 to 2011. In 2005, only two of the responding coastal counties and 4

See case studies of Monterey, CA; the South Pond restoration project in the San Francisco Bay; and the challenges for Oakland airport in adapting to SLR, and efforts made to date. 5 Hart, J.F. and S.C. Moser, Survey analysis in preparation; data on file with the authors.

20


450

one of the participating cities had climate change plans in place, and four counties and six

451

cities were developing such a plan. By 2011, many more coastal communities in

452

California had begun examining and planning for the impacts of climate change: of the

453

162 survey responses, representing 14 coastal counties and 45 coastal municipalities,

454

only 10% had not begun looking at climate change impacts at all, 40% were in the early

455

stage of understanding the potential impacts of climate change and their local

456

vulnerabilities, 41% had entered the more advanced stage of planning for those impacts,

457

and another 9% were implementing one or more identified adaptation options. More

458

detailed survey results have shown that communities are still early in their respective

459

processes, but a clear increase in engagement has been confirmed by several other studies

460

(Hanak and Moreno 2011; Moser 2009; Tang 2009; Cruce 2009). A separate analysis

461

highlights six municipalities in California that have developed local climate adaptation

462

plans or components thereof (Georgetown Climate Center 2012). An Ocean Protection

463

Council resolution passed in June 2007 encouraged Local Coastal Plan (LCP)

464

amendments to address sea-level rise, yet few local governments have even begun the

465

process of considering such LCP amendments. Of particular regional significance is also

466

the overall slow response of the region’s major ports and marine facilities, albeit not a

467

unique response among North American or international ports where adaptation planning

468

is also just beginning (Ocean Protection Council 2007; Becker et al. 2011; California

469

State Lands Commission 2009).

470


471

In summary, while the state of California has been fairly progressive in adaptation

472

planning (for example with a Climate Adaptation Strategy, CalAdapt website, and the 21


473

contract for a sea-level rise study to be completed by the National Research Council),

474

most adaptation actions will be implemented locally or regionally (often with state and

475

federal support and permits), yet few local governments have begun taking concrete steps

476

to implement either their own plans or the state’s existing recommendations.

477 478

9.5.4 Barriers to adaptation

479

Several studies have examined impediments or barriers to adaptation for

480

individuals, communities, organizations, and entire nations.6 Increasing empirical

481

evidence from California strongly confirms those reported barriers to adaptation in

482

coastal communities (Hanak and Moreno 2011). In the above-mentioned 2005 survey of

483

local jurisdictions, coastal managers viewed local monetary constraints, insufficient staff

484

resources, lack of supportive funding from state and federal sources, the all-consuming

485

nature of currently pressing issues, and the lack of a legal mandate to undertake

486

adaptation planning as their top barriers (Moser and Tribbia 2006/2007). When asked

487

again in 2011, the lack of funding to prepare and implement a plan, lack of staff resources

488

to analyze relevant information, and the all-consuming currently pressing issues were

489

again mentioned as overwhelming hurdles for local coastal professionals, followed (with

490

far less frequency) by issues such as lack of public demand to take adaptation action, lack

491

of technical assistance from state or federal agencies, and lack of coordination among

492

organizations (Moser and Ekstrom 2012). Case study research in two cities and two

493

counties in the San Francisco Bay area found institutional barriers dominate, closely

494

followed by attitudinal barriers among decision-makers. Funding-related barriers were

6

See the extensive literature review in Ekstrom, Moser and Torn (2011) and Moser and Ekstrom (2010).

22


495

important, but ranked only third (Moser and Ekstrom 2012; Griggs, Patsch, and Savoy

496

2005; Storlazzi and Griggs 2006; Kildow and Colgan 2005).

497

There is additional independent evidence that local jurisdictions vary considerably

498

in their technical expertise and capacity to engage in effective coastal land use

499

management and that they do not use available management tools to the fullest extent

500

possible to improve coastal land management overall (Tang 2008; Tang 2009). For

501

example, experts assert that the California Coastal Act and the Public Trust Doctrine are

502

considerably underutilized in protecting public trust areas and the public interest

503

(Caldwell and Segall 2007; Peloso and Caldwell 2011). Thus, the persistence of this

504

range of institutional, attitudinal, economic, and other adaptation barriers goes a long way

505

toward accounting for the low level of actual preparedness and lack of active

506

implementation of adaptation strategies in coastal California (high confidence).

507

The in-depth case studies conducted in the San Francisco Bay area, however, also

508

revealed that local communities have many opportunities, assets, and advantages that can

509

help them avoid adaptation barriers in the first place, or which they can leverage in

510

efforts to overcome those barriers they encounter. Among the most important of these

511

advantages and assets are (1) people who are interested in serving the common (regional)

512

good, rather than being self-interested; innovators or early adopters; have a broad, long-

513

term, or integrative perspective; networkers, good collaborators, and communicators; and

514

passionate, knowledgeable, experienced, caring, strategic, visionary, and forward-

515

thinking; and (2) existing relevant plans and policies that facilitate and allow integration

516

of adaptation and climate change (Moser and Ekstrom 2012).

23


517

In conclusion, adaptation in coastal California is an emerging mainstream policy

518

concern wherein institutions and the actors involved—along with supporting financial

519

and technical resources— pose the greatest barriers and constitute the greatest assets in

520

avoiding and overcoming them. While some barriers originate from outside sources (such

521

as the national economic crisis or federal laws and regulation), and communities require

522

state and federal support to overcome entrenched challenges (such as legal and technical

523

guidance or fiscal support), local communities have the power and control to overcome

524

many of the challenges they face (Moser and Ekstrom 2012).

525

24


526 Box 9.1: The Role of Insurance and Incentives in Coastal Development Many current federally and state-funded actions and programs continue to protect and subsidize high-risk coastal development by shifting the cost of flood protection and storm recovery from property owners and local governments to state and federal taxpayers. For example, the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA) National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) offers flood insurance rates that do not reflect the full risk that policyholders face. In addition, the Army Corps of Engineers frequently funds and executes structural shoreline protection projects, while federal and state post-disaster recovery funding and assistance encourages replacing or rebuilding structures with a high level of risk exposure (Bagstad, Stapleton, and D’Agostino 2007). These programs work together to distort market forces and favor the movement of people to the coasts. Meanwhile, reinsurance companies and experts studying the insurance market increasingly urge that premiums better reflect actual risks to ensure a reliable insurance system as climate risks increase (Lloyd’s of London 2006; Lloyd’s of London 2008; Kunreuther and Michel-Kerjan 2009; Pacific Council on International Policy 2010). The NFIP is over-exposed and is running a deficit as of 2010 of nearly $19 billion (Orice Williams Brown 2010). To reduce the financial burdens on the flood insurance program and decrease overall vulnerability, FEMA also administers several grant programs designed to mitigate flood hazards prior to disasters occurring (FEMA 2010). These programs are often used for pre-disaster structural flood mitigation measures, but have also been used for structure acquisition, property buy-outs, and demolition or relocation (Multihazard Mitigation Council 2005). The resulting open space is required to be protected in perpetuity, simultaneously providing natural resource benefits and vulnerability-reduction benefits (FEMA 2010).

527

25


Box 9.2: Adaptation to Climate Change in the Marine Environment: The Gulf of Farallones and Cordell Bank National Marine Sanctuaries In 2010, the Gulf of Farallones and Cordell Bank National Marine Sanctuaries, located off the central California coast, published a report on climate change impacts (Largier, Cheng, and Higgason 2010). The study determined that climate change will affect the region’s marine waters and ecosystems through a combination of physical changes, including sea-level rise, coastal erosion and flooding, changes in precipitation and runoff, ocean-atmosphere circulation, and ocean water properties (such as acidification due to absorption of atmospheric CO2)—and biological changes, including changes in species’ physiology, phenology, and population connectivity, as well as species range shifts. With this foundational document in hand, sanctuary managers held a series of workshops aimed at developing an adaptation framework that involved both the sanctuaries and their partners onshore and in the marine environment. From those efforts and underlying studies, they determined that the success of adaptation strategies for the marine environment will depend not only on the magnitude and nature of climatic changes, but also on the pressures that already exist in marine environments, including the watershed drainage to the sanctuaries. For example, an adaptation strategy for estuaries and nearshore waters that addresses the changing timing and amount of water from spring snowmelt or more frequent winter storms will also require knowledge about whether the watershed is urbanized, agricultural, or relatively undeveloped. Efforts to foster marine ecosystem adaptation to climate change will require both stringent measures that reduce the global concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere and the reduction of any additional pressures on the regional marine environment (e.g. air pollution, runoff from land into the ocean, waste disposal, and the loss of the filtering and land stabilization services of coastal wetlands) (Kelly et al. 2011). 528

26


Box 9.3: The Role of Adaptation in California Ports The three major ports—Los Angeles, Long Beach and Oakland—had a combined throughput of over $350 billion7 in cargo in 2009 at a value of 13% of the GDP of the six Southwest states. With such noted economic importance, port authorities are starting to address issues related to the sea-level rise. The Port of Long Beach plans to rebuild the Gerald Desmond Bridge because the air gap (the space between the bottom of the bridge and the top of a ship) is restricting some ship transit to times of low tide. As noted in Chapter 14, Rand Corporation is preparing a climate adaptation study for the Port of Los Angeles. The creation and funding of additional protection or response plans for these ports–and their associated costs–is inevitable (Metropolitan Transportation Commission 2004). 529 530

7

Based on reportings from the ports; see http://www.portoflosangeles.org/maritime/growth.asp; http://logisticscareers.lbcc.edu/portoflb.htm; http://www.portofoakland.com/maritime/facts comm 02.asp

27


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879 880 881

Figures

882

43


883 884 885 886

Figure 9.1: Sea Level Rise Observations and Projections. This image represents geologic and recent sea level rise histories (from tide gauges and satellite altimetry) with projections to 2100 using climate models and empirical data (Russell and Griggs 2012).

887 888 889 890 891 892 893 894 895 896 897 898

Figure 9.2: Sea Level Rise and El Niño Events. The implications of sea-level rise for coastal California cannot be understood in isolation from other, shorter-term sea-level variability related to El Niño events, storms or extreme tides that affect our coast. As historical experience has shown, the greatest damages to coastal areas have occurred during large El Niño events when short-term sea level increases (shown as red arrows, for example in 1940-41, 1982-83 and 1997-98) occurred simultaneously with high tides and large waves. The impacts of large future ENSO events will be greater than those historic events of similar magnitude because sea level is continuing to rise, thus exposing coastal areas to combined effects of sea-level rise, elevated ENSO sea levels, and large waves.

44


899 900 901 902 903 904 905 906 907 908

Figure 9.3 (PLACEHOLDER): Monthly Value for the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. The period from about 1945 to 1978 was a cool PDO period marked by an overall calm or benign coastal climate, but also was a period of intensive growth and development along the California coast. Red corresponds to periods with positive or warm PDO conditions and blue corresponds to negative or cool PDO conditions. The vertical axis is a dimensionless PDO index based on North Pacific sea surface temperature variability. (We are currently producing the GIS image that will accompany this graphic)

45


909 910 911 912 913 914 915 916 917 918

Figure 9.4: Estuary Wetland Migration Area by Land Cover Type in the Monterey Bay Region (PLACEHOLDER). Different land-use types will have different capacities to accommodate wetland migration ranging from urban areas (which are unlikely to accommodate migration at all) to public natural areas (which will likely accommodate migration completely). Between these extremes are agricultural areas and privately owned natural areas, both of which could accommodate migration if landowners choose not to prevent it by fortifying or armoring their lands.

46


919 920 921 922 923 924 925 926 927 928 929 930

Figure 9.5: Impacts of Climate Change on Marine Species Distributions & Habitat. Many marine species are confined to particular habitats based on water temperature, salinity, or depth. In panel (a), Humboldt squid are confined at their northern edge by temperature. In 2003, the northern edge reached the mouth of the San Francisco Bay, but has recently expanded as far north as Alaska. In panel (b), some fish have limited habitat due to temperature from above and oxygen or acidity from below. As surface waters warm and oxygen minimum zones expand or acidity increases, the available habitat for these species is compressed. This leads to lower available resources and potentially increased predation (Bograd et al. 2010; Stramma et al. 2011).

47


931 932 933 934 935 936 937 938 939 940

Figure 9.6: Coastal Impacts of Ocean Acidification. This image depicts the aragonite saturation depth on the continental shelf of western North America. Below this depth (aragonite saturation state < 1.0), it becomes energetically unfavorable for mollusks and other species to precipitate the calcium carbonate necessary to make shell material. Corrosive waters now occur at shallower depths than in the past as a result of the ocean absorbing increasing amounts of CO2 from the atmosphere. Note that in transect 5, the corrosive water reaches the ocean surface north of Eureka and Arcata, California (figure from Feely et al. 2008).

48


941

942 943 944 945 946 947

Figure 9.7: Impacts to Major Transportation Centers: San Francisco and Oakland Airports (PLACEHOLDER). The impacts to San Francisco and Oakland airports will require planning and resources to ensure that these major economic drivers for the San Francisco Bay area can continue to operate in the future.

49


948 949 950 951 952 953

Figure 9.8: Coastal Armoring of Encinitas, Northern San Diego County in 2010. One-third of the shoreline of southern California (Ventura, Los Angeles, Orange and San Diego counties) has now been armored. Photo: Kenneth and Gabrielle Adelman, California Coastal Records Project, www.Californiacoastline.org

50


954 955 956 957 958 959 960 961 962 963 964 965

Figure 9.9: Local California Coastal Managers’ Attitudes Toward Climate Change. Well over 80% of California coastal managers are concerned with climate change and the proportion saying they are “very concerned” increased significantly over the past six years. Meanwhile, local managers feel only moderately well informed, indicating a significant need for education. One indication of their readiness to advance adaptation planning is the high proportion of respondents (75%) saying they already consider the implications of climate change in their personal and professional lives. Local managers need help overcoming persistent barriers to adaptation to turn their concern and willingness to act into action on the ground.

51


966

Tables

967 968 969 970 971 972 973 974 975 976

Table 9.1: Static Sea-Level Rise Projections (without consideration of storm events) using 2000 as the Baseline (California Climate Action Team Sea-Level Rise Interim Guidance Document). These values are based on Vermeer and Rahmstorf (2009). For dates after 2050, three different values for sea-level rise are included based on low, medium and high greenhouse gas IPCC 2007 emission scenarios as follows: B1 for low projections, A2 for the medium projections, and A1F1 for the high projections.

52


977

Appendices

978 979 980 981

Appendix A:

982 983 984 985 986 987 988 989

Estimate of flood and erosion losses associated with future sea-level rise for California’s Ocean and Bay Shoreline (Heberger et al. 2009). Asset or concern Risk (a) Amount at Amount at risk in Dominant risk in 2000 2100 (with 1.4m location of risk (c) rise in sea level) (2000/2100) People 100-year Flood 260,000 410,000 SF Bay/SF Bay Replacement value 100-year Flood $50 billion $109 billion Both/SF Bay of buildings People Erosion (b) 14,000 ND/Ocean (b) Number of land Erosion 10,000 ND/Ocean parcels lost Value of property Erosion (b) $14 billion ND/Ocean loss Schools 100-year Flood 65 137 Both/SF Bay Healthcare 100-year Flood 20 55 SF Bay/SF Bay facilities Police, fire and 100-year Flood 17 34 SF Bay/SF Bay training areas Hazardous waste 100-year Flood 134 332 ND/ND sites Highway and 100-year Flood 222 (1,660) 430 (3,100) Ocean/Ocean (road) miles Power plants 100-year Flood 30 (10,000) ND/Ocean number and (megawatt capacity) Waste treatment 100-year Flood 29 (530) ND/SF Bay plants number and (millions of gallons/day capacity) (a) Flood risks and erosion risks are not mutually exclusive; many of the same assets will be at risk from both flood and erosion. (b) Erosion impacts were only examined for the open ocean coast from Del Norte County through Santa Barbara. Estimates for erosion losses do not include Ventura, Los Angeles, Orange or San Diego Counties. Nor do estimates include San Francisco Bay, since, “In San Francisco, however, the erosion-related risk is small.” (Heberger, 2009, 80) (c) ND is no data – often since the analysis looked at change from the current conditions.

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990 991 992 993 994 995 996 997 998 999 1000 1001 1002 1003 1004 1005 1006 1007 1008 1009 1010 1011 1012 1013 1014 1015 1016 1017

Appendix B: Selected Resources in Support of Coastal Adaptation  

  





CalAdapt http://cal-adapt.org/ Localized, searchable climate change projections for California California Climate Change Portal http://www.climatechange.ca.gov/ Research results on climate change, its impacts on California (including coasts), and the state adaptation strategy Ocean Protection Council http://www.opc.ca.gov/ Sea-level rise guidance for state and local agencies, funding opportunities USGS Coastal Vulnerability Assessment http://woodshole.er.usgs.gov/project-pages/cvi/ Historical sea-level rise and erosion hazards (not including future risks) NOAA Coastal Services Center http://collaborate.csc.noaa.gov/climateadaptation/default.aspx Wide range of information and tools for impacts and vulnerability assessments, adaptation planning, visualization, communication, stakeholder engagement, etc. Rising Sea Net: http://papers.risingsea.net/ Sea-level rise, impacts (erosion, flooding, wetlands), adaptation options, costs, legal issues (property rights, rolling easements etc.) Georgetown Law Center - Adaptation http://www.georgetownclimate.org/adaptation Searchable database of case studies, adaptation plans, sea-level rise tool kit, and other documents

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