Cumulative Chinese WMP Imports (kt) and % Change. 2016 Cumul. 2017 Cumul. TY vs LY Cumul. Source: GTT. New Zealand. 27,6
Chinese Dairy Imports Report
Wednesday, 03 January 2018
Chinese Dairy Imports November - Powders Imports Up, Fats Generally Weaker Imports of powders to China saw decent gains in November with WMP, SMP and IMF all seeing y/y increases. Butter and cheese imports were down y/y in November while AMF imports saw decent increases. WMP: Chinese WMP imports remained ahead of last year in November, up 2% y/y, recording the largest volume of WMP imported by China in November since 2013. YTD WMP imports are up 16% on last year at 443,528 tonnes. Imports from New Zealand accounted for 90% of the November volume, down 0.8% y/y to 27,695 tonnes while NZ account for 93% of the YTD volume. SMP: SMP saw very strong imports in November up 53% on the 2016 level posting a new three year high for the month. NZ accounted for 9,415 tonnes or 52% of the total volume. The US accounted for 15% of the SMP imported, while Australia and Germany were responsible for 10% and 7% respectively. YTD SMP imports are now up almost 36% on the same point last year. Infant Milk Formula: IMF imports followed a similar trend to SMP, with November up 47% y/y posting IMF’s single biggest month ever, and by a considerable margin, beating the previous monthly record of 28,911 tonnes posted in September. The Netherlands was again the leading origin of the IMF imported, accounting for 29% of the November total. NZ was the second largest origin with 20% while France and Ireland accounted for 16% and 9% respectively. YTD imports now stand 36% ahead of last year. Butter and AMF: Combined butter and AMF imports dropped off sharply in November, down 12% y/y. This puts combined YTD butter and AMF imports down 12% y/y. Butter imports decreased in November driving the overall reduction in fat imports, totalling 2,698 tonnes, down 36% on last year. NZ accounted for 79% of the November butter imports. YTD butter imports are now up 5% y/y. AMF imports on the other hand increased sharply in November albeit off a low base, up 38% y/y. YTD imports are now 38% ahead of the same point last year. Cheese: Cheese imports saw their biggest y/y decline of 2017 in November, down 22% y/y although it is worth noting that cheese imports to China were exceptionally strong in November 2016, which is exaggerating the percentage decrease somewhat. YTD imports remain 14% ahead of last year. New Zealand was the leading origin of cheese imports accounting for 43% of the November cheese imports. Whey: Whey powder and WPC imports maintained their positive ways in November, up 3% y/y. Whey imports also exceeded the three year average for the month by almost 29%. YTD whey imports now total 480,085 tonnes with the US accounting for 55% of the YTD total.
Chinese Dairy Imports By Product Source: GTT
Nov Product WMP SMP Infant Formula Butter & AMF Butter AMF Cheese Whey Powder/WPC Lactose Pharma Caseinates
Metric Tonnes 2016 2017 30,109 30,749 11,942 18,248 23,943 35,099 6,328 5,586 4,236 2,698 2,092 2,888 10,968 8,524 45,372 46,634 5,780 5,982 1,200 1,318
Wednesday, 03 January 2018
Chinese Dairy Imports YTD Metric Tonnes Y/Y % Diff % Diff. 3 Yr. Avg. 2016 2.1% 11.6% 381,992 52.8% 46.0% 173,097 46.6% 100.4% 197,995 -11.7% -2.6% 75,353 -36.3% -32.8% 58,231 38.1% 67.8% 17,126 -22.3% 10.3% 89,337 2.8% 28.9% 455,585 3.5% 4.7% 70,202 9.9% 10.8% 14,917
2017 Cumul. Y/Y Diff. 443,528 16.1% 235,199 35.9% 269,583 36.2% 84,663 12.4% 61,121 5.0% 23,546 37.5% 101,717 13.9% 480,085 5.4% 70,589 0.6% 12,497 -16.2% Page 1
Chinese Dairy Imports Report WMP Import Charts Source: GTT
Chinese WMP Imports (Metric Tonnes)
140,000 120,000
108,126
Metric Tonnes
100,000 80,000 53,974
60,000
40,150 33,072
40,000
30,547
35,402
42,327
26,437
30,749 22,935
19,810
20,000 Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
2013
Jun
2014
Jul
2015
2016
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2017
Cumulative Chinese WMP Imports (kt) and % Change 500 370
400
413
120% 110% 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20%
444
335 294
300
kt
393
200
162
195
226
252
108 100 0 -100 -200
4.1% -10.0% Jan
Source: GTT
Feb
-3.8%
-2.9%
-4.8%
Mar
Apr
May
2016 Cumul.
1.0%
5.8%
10.5%
Jun
Jul
Aug
2017 Cumul.
15.0%
17.3%
16.1%
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
TY vs LY Cumul.
Monthly Chinese WMP Import Origins (t)
New Zealand 27,695 90%
Nov Monthly Total 30,749 t
Uni ted States 1,059 3% Aus tralia 799 3% Other 1,195 4%
Source: GTT
YTD Chinese WMP Import Origins (t)
New Zealand 413,788 93%
YTD Total 443,528 t
Aus tralia 8,897 2% Fra nce 7,541 2% Other 13,274 3%
Source: GTT
Wednesday, 03 January 2018
Page 2
Chinese Dairy Imports Report SMP Import Charts Source: GTT
Chinese SMP Imports (Metric Tonnes)
40,000 35,000
32,813
30,000
26,255
Metric Tonnes
25,000
26,122
21,260
20,270
18,522
17,857
20,000
21,577
16,367
18,248 15,909
15,000 10,000 5,000 Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
2013
Jun
2014
Jul
2015
2016
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2017
Cumulative Chinese SMP Imports (kt) and % Change 230 180
217
235
32.2%
34.6%
35.9%
Sep
Oct
Nov
201
185
159
140% 130% 120% 110% 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10%
132 130
111
kt
92 74
80
53 33
30 -20 -70 -120
2.7%
Feb
Mar
11.8%
16.2%
Apr
May
Jun
29.2% 24.9%
-2.0% Jan
Source: GTT
4.2%
7.6%
2016 Cumul.
Jul
Aug
2017 Cumul.
Dec
TY vs LY Cumul.
Monthly Chinese SMP Import Origins (t) Uni ted States 2,666 15%
New Zealand 9,415 51%
Aus tralia 1,777 10% Germa ny 1,245 7%
Nov Monthly Total 18,248 t
Fra nce 928 5% Other 1,477 8%
Fi nland 740 4%
Source: GTT
YTD Chinese SMP Import Origins (t)
Aus tralia 29,848 13%
Uni ted States 25,014 Germa ny 10% 22,677 10%
Fi nland 9,079 4%
YTD Total 235,199 t
New Zealand 112,135 48%
Fra nce 11,947 5%
Other 23,996 10%
Source: GTT
Wednesday, 03 January 2018
Page 3
Chinese Dairy Imports Report Infant Formula Import Charts Source: GTT
Chinese Infant Formula Imports (Metric Tonnes)
40,000 35,099 35,000 28,911
30,000 26,064 25,000
Metric Tonnes
23,318
22,967
20,000
15,519
24,539
28,119
28,357
21,097
15,592
15,000 10,000 5,000 Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
2013
Jun
2014
Jul
2015
Aug
2016
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2017
Cumulative Chinese Infant Formula Imports (kt) and % Change 300
180% 170% 160% 150% 140% 130% 120% 110% 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10%
270
250
234
206 200
177 149
150
kt
125 98
100 50
75 54 16
31
0 -50
10.5%
18.7%
22.6%
25.8%
29.4%
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
27.8%
30.0%
33.0%
34.7%
36.2%
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
-8.1%
-100 Jan Source: GTT
Feb
2016 Cumul.
2017 Cumul.
Dec
TY vs LY Cumul.
Monthly Chinese Infant Formula Import Origins (t) Ireland Denmark 2,952 Germa ny 3,030 8% 2,699 9% 8% Fra nce 5,539 16%
Other 3,860 11%
Nov Monthly Total 35,099 t
New Zealand 6,940 20%
Netherlands 10,008 28%
Source: GTT
YTD Chinese Infant Formula Import Origins (t)
New Zealand 42,633 16%
Fra nce 36,602 13%
Ireland 33,942 13%
YTD Total 269,583 t Netherlands 80,654 30%
Germa ny 25,949 10%
Other 48,635 18%
Source: GTT
Wednesday, 03 January 2018
Page 4
Chinese Dairy Imports Report Butter Import Charts Source: GTT
Chinese Butter Imports (Metric Tonnes)
14,000 12,269 12,000
Metric Tonnes
10,000
8,664
8,000 6,225
5,751
6,000
6,505
5,705
4,688
4,265 4,000
3,029
2,698
1,323
2,000 Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
2013
Jun
2014
Jul
2015
2016
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2017
Cumulative Chinese Butter Imports (kt) and % Change 70
1.3%
14.0%
7.8%
8.2%
5.0%
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
42
kt
40
36 30
30 20
14
19
23
9
0 2.0%
-10 -20
-29.9%
-23.2%
-20.9%
Jan
Feb
Mar
-30
Source: GTT
180% 170% 160% 150% 140% 130% 120% 110% 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40%
61
54
50
10
58
55
60
-14.0% Apr
-3.0%
May
2016 Cumul.
Jun
2017 Cumul.
Dec
TY vs LY Cumul.
Monthly Chinese Butter Import Origins (t)
New Zealand 2,143 79%
Nov Monthly Total 2,698 t
Fra nce 250 9%
Other 211 8%
Netherlands 94 4%
Source: GTT
YTD Chinese Butter Import Origins (t)
Fra nce 5,268 9% New Zealand 50,996 83%
YTD Total 61,121 t
Aus tralia 1,891 3% Bel gium 1,409 2% Other 1,555 3%
Source: GTT
Wednesday, 03 January 2018
Page 5
Chinese Dairy Imports Report AMF Import Charts Source: GTT
Chinese AMF Imports (Metric Tonnes)
5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 2,885
Metric Tonnes
3,000
2,423
2,749
2,365
2,500
2,021
1,807
2,000
2,888 2,526
1,592
1,405
1,500 888
1,000 500 Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
2013
Jun
2014
Jul
2015
2016
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2017
Cumulative CumulativeChinese ChineseButter AMF Imports Imports(kt) (kt)and and%%Change Change 70 25 60 20
54 17
kt
50 15 40
10 0
2 9
3 14
7 23
5 19
14.0%
19.9%
-14.8% -1.2% -29.9%
-23.2%
-20.9%
Jan
Feb
Mar
-30 -15
Source: GTT
61 24
180% 170% 160% 150% 150% 140% 140% 130% 130% 120% 120% 110% 110% 100% 100% 90% 90% 80% 70% 80% 60% 70% 50% 60% 40% 50% 30% 40% 20% 30% 10% 20% 0% 10% -10% 0% -20% -10% -30% -40% -20%
36 11
0 -5 -10 -10 -20
21 58
14 42
10 30 205
19 55
-14.0% Apr
30 9
25.7%
26.1% 2.0%
28.0% 1.3%
37.4% 14.0%
45.1% 7.8%
37.4% 8.2%
37.5% 5.0%
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
-3.0%
May
2016 Cumul.
Jun
2017 Cumul.
Dec
TY vs LY Cumul.
Monthly Chinese AMF Import Origins (t)
New Zealand 2,759 96%
Nov Monthly Total 2,888 t
Fra nce 45 1% Other 83 3%
Source: GTT
YTD Chinese AMF Import Origins (t)
New Zealand 21,540 92%
YTD Total 23,546 t
Bel gium 795 3% Netherlands 771 3% Other 439 2%
Source: GTT
Wednesday, 03 January 2018
Page 6
Chinese Dairy Imports Report Cheese Import Charts Source: GTT
Chinese Cheese Imports (Metric Tonnes)
14,000 12,261
11,613
12,000 9,663
10,184
9,555
10,000
8,914
8,750
Metric Tonnes
8,067
8,405
8,524
8,000 5,779
6,000 4,000 2,000 Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
2013
Jun
2014
Jul
2015
Aug
2016
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2017
Cumulative Imports (kt) (kt) and and % % Change Change Cumulative Chinese Chinese Cheese Butter Imports 70 110 60
54
90 50
kt
70 40 30 50 20 30 10 10 0 -10 -10 -30 -20 -50 -30
Source: GTT
9 10
14 19
14.5%
19 28
16.9%
-29.9% -1.2%
-23.2%
-20.9%
Jan
Feb
Mar
23 36
18.3% -14.0% Apr
30 46
23.8%
36 59
28.7% 2.0%
79
42 67
1.3% 20.8%
14.0% 23.4%
Jul
Aug
58 93
55 85
7.8% 20.4%
8.2% 18.9%
Sep
Oct
180% 170% 160% 160% 150% 150% 140% 140% 130% 130% 120% 120% 110% 100% 110% 90% 100% 80% 90% 70% 80% 60% 70% 50% 60% 40% 30% 50% 20% 40% 10% 30% 0% 20% -10% 10% -20% 0% -30% -10% -40%
61 102
5.0% 13.9%
-3.0%
May
Jun
2016 Cumul.
2017 Cumul.
Nov
Dec
TY vs LY Cumul.
Monthly Chinese Cheese Import Origins (t) Aus tralia 1,714 20%
New Zealand 3,662 43%
Nov Monthly Total 8,524 t
Uni ted States 1,632 19%
Other 1,226 15%
Fra nce 241 3%
Source: GTT
YTD Chinese Cheese Import Origins (t) Aus tralia 19,662 19%
New Zealand 52,567 52%
YTD Total 101,717 t
Uni ted States 11,883 12%
Other 16,707 17% Source: GTT
Wednesday, 03 January 2018
Page 7
Chinese Dairy Imports Report Whey Powder Import Charts Source: GTT
Chinese Whey Powder Imports (Metric Tonnes)
60,000
54,875 47,312
50,000
46,555
Metric Tonnes
40,000
44,914
42,801
41,172
40,455
46,634 43,019 37,993
34,355
30,000 20,000 10,000 Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
2013
Jun
2014
Jul
2015
Aug
2016
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2017
Cumulative Cumulative Chinese Chinese Whey Butter Powder Imports Imports (kt) (kt) andand % Change % Change 600 70 60 500
54
kt
50 400 40 300 30 200 20 100 10 0 0
9 34
-100 -10 -200 -20 -300 -30
Source: GTT
14 75
19 122
9.1%
10.5%
-29.9% -21.6%
-23.2%
-20.9%
Jan
Feb
Mar
23 163
13.7% -14.0% Apr
30 206
10.6%
395
180% 170% 160% 150% 140% 130% 130% 120% 120% 110% 110% 100% 100% 90% 90% 80% 80% 70% 70% 60% 60% 50% 50% 40% 40% 30% 30% 20% 20% 10% 10% 0% 0% -10% -10% -20% -20% -30% -40% -30%
61 480
42 308
352
11.0% 1.3%
14.0% 8.1%
7.8% 6.0%
8.2% 5.7%
5.0% 5.4%
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
36 261
13.3% 2.0%
58 433
55
-3.0%
May
2016 Cumul.
Jun
2017 Cumul.
Dec
TY vs LY Cumul.
Monthly Chinese Whey Powder Import Origins (t) Fra nce 5,835 12%
Uni ted States 23,967 52%
Netherlands 4,553 10%
Nov Monthly Total 46,634 t
Pol a nd 3,564 8% Other 8,551 18%
Source: GTT
YTD Chinese Whey Powder Import Origins (t) Fra nce 56,271 12%
Uni ted States 263,239 55%
Netherlands 37,215 8% Pol a nd 27,344 6%
YTD Total 480,085 t
Other 59,843 13%
Ireland 16,208 3% Germa ny 15,007 3%
Source: GTT
Wednesday, 03 January 2018
Page 8
Chinese Dairy Imports Report Lactose Import Charts Source: GTT
Chinese Lactose Imports (Metric Tonnes)
10,000 8,490
9,000 7,758
8,000
7,114
6,465
7,000
6,180
6,037
Metric Tonnes
6,000
5,807
6,178
5,982
5,304
5,275
5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
2013
Jun
2014
Jul
2015
2016
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2017
Cumulative CumulativeChinese ChineseLactose Butter Imports Imports(kt) (kt)and and% %Change Change 70 80 60 70
54
50 60
kt
40 50 30 40 20 30 10 20 100
14 9
19
30 36
2.0%
1.3%
14.0%
7.8%
8.2%
5.0%
3.2%
0.7%
0.6%
1.0%
0.3%
0.6%
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
20
6
13.0% -29.9%
-30 -20 Jan Source: GTT
53
13
-10 0 -20 -10
23 29
42 47
36 42
200% 180% 170% 190% 160% 180% 150% 170% 140% 160% 130% 150% 120% 140% 110% 130% 100% 120% 90% 110% 80% 100% 70% 90% 60% 80% 50% 70% 40% 60% 30% 50% 20% 40% 10% 30% 0% 20% -10% 10% -20% 0% -30% -40% -10%
61 71
58 65
55 59
14.2% -23.2% Feb
15.1%
9.5% -14.0% -20.9% Mar
Apr
10.1% -3.0%
May
2016 Cumul.
Jun
2017 Cumul.
Dec
TY vs LY Cumul.
Monthly Monthly Chinese Chinese Whey Lactose Powder Import Import Origins Origins (t) (t) Fra nce 5,835 12%
Uni ted States 5,546 Uni ted States 93% 23,967 52%
Nov Nov Monthly Monthly Total Total 46,634 5,982 tt
Netherlands 4,553 Germa ny 10% 185 3% Pol a nd Netherlands 3,564 140 8% Other 2% 111 Other 2% 8,551 18%
Source: GTT
YTD Chinese Lactose Import Origins (t)
Germa ny 5,709 8% Uni ted States 55,321 78%
YTD Total 59,332 t Other 4,300 6%
Pol a nd 3,177 5% Netherlands 2,082 3%
Source: GTT
Wednesday, 03 January 2018
Page 9
Chinese Dairy Imports Report Caseinate Import Charts Source: GTT
Chinese Caseinate Imports (Metric Tonnes)
2,500 1,992
2,000 1,465
Metric Tonnes
1,500
1,318
1,238 953
884
1,000
1,147 1,018
942
884
654 500
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
2013
Jun
2014
Jul
2015
Aug
2016
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2017
Cumulative Cumulative Chinese Chinese Caseinate Butter Imports Imports(kt) (kt)and and%%Change Change 70 20
kt
60 15 50
54 42
40 10 30
36 30
205 10 0 0 -10 -5 -20 -30 -10
9 1
19 2
-29.9% -46.7% -70.4% -23.2% Feb
12
11
5
3
-37.5% -38.0% -14.0% -20.9% Mar
9
8
10
200% 180% 170% 180% 160% 150% 160% 140% 140% 130% 120% 120% 110% 100% 90% 80% 80% 70% 60% 60% 40% 50% 40% 20% 30% 0% 20% 10% -20% 0% -40% -10% -20% -60% -30% -40% -80%
61
58
7
2.0% -17.6%
Jan Source: GTT
14 2
23
55
Apr
-29.5% -3.0%
May
1.3% -15.5%
14.0%
7.8%
8.2%
5.0%
-19.0%
-17.8%
-18.5%
-16.2%
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Jun
2016 Cumul.
2017 Cumul.
Dec
TY vs LY Cumul.
Monthly Chinese Caseinate Import Origins (t)(t) Monthly Chinese Whey Powder Import Origins Netherlands 287 22%
Uni ted States 23,967 52%
Fra nce Fra nce 5,835 12% 90 7%
Other 8,551 18%
New Zealand 783 59%
Source: GTT
Netherlands Other 4,553 158 10% 12% Pol a nd 3,564 8%
Nov Nov Monthly Monthly Total Total 1,318 tt 46,634
YTD Chinese Caseinate Import Origins (t) Netherlands 3,500 28%
New Zealand 6,864 55%
Source: GTT
Wednesday, 03 January 2018
YTD Total 12,497 t
Fra nce 963 8% Uni ted States 643 5% Other 527 4%
Page 10
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