1 The use phase is outside the scope of the project ... can be found in the production of bulk materials like steel, cement, plastics and paper and board. .... Advanced forming techniques for light-weight auto bodies ...... -industrial bags.
Clean technologies in the materials sector CURRENT AND FUTURE ENVIRONMENTAL PERFORMANCE OF MATERIAL TECHNOLOGIES
Dr. D. Phylipsen Ir. M. Kerssemeeckers Prof. Dr. K. Blok Dr. M. Patel Dr. J. de Beer With contributions of: Ir. M.H. Voogt C. Byers, MSc Ir. G. Timmers Dr. C. Hendriks Drs. S. Joosen
April 2002 E 9087
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
,1752'8&7,21 In OECD countries, industry accounts on average for one third of total primary energy consumption. About three-quarters of this (or about 25% of total primary energy consumption) is related to the basic industry, i.e. to the production of basic materials. This indicates that a more efficient production, use and waste management of materials could substantially contribute to reducing total energy demand and the associated environmental impacts. The objective of this study is to establish the environmental effects related to current and future material production and consumption and to identify the technological opportunities to limit these environmental problems. The results of the study will serve as an input to the development of a technology road map for Research and Development in the field of material technologies. This material technology road map, which will be prepared by the EU Joint Research Centre in Seville (the Institute of Prospective Technology Studies) will facilitate setting future research priorities in the area of materials and material technologies. In this study the material sector was analysed by determining the most important materials in terms of production and consumption quantities and environmental effects. The use of the selected materials in different application areas was addressed, giving insight in the environmental impact of application areas. Scenario’s were developed concerning future demand for and production of materials in different application areas and the future environmental burden from this growth in materials was estimated. To come to an R&D technology road map, an inventory was made of the most important technological opportunities to decrease the environmental impact from the materials sector. The total potential to reduce environmental impact was quantified.
i
,03257$170$7(5,$/6 The most important materials in terms of total environmental impact for the different environmental impact categories include the materials steel, aluminium, copper, zinc, lead, cement, glass, ceramics, polyethylene, polypropylene, polystyrene, PVC, PET, paper & board and wood. An overview of the uses of these materials is given in Table 1. Note that the large volumes in which these materials are used are an important reason for their high total environmental impact. In addition, although some materials may have a smaller specific environmental impact during the production phase than others, the conversion process used or the amount of material needed to fulfil the same function may be different, leading to a higher environmental impact in the use phase1. It therefore needs to be emphasised that the content of this report is not intended to be used to discriminate against any material or to promote one material over the other. It is only to be used to demonstrate possible options to limit the environmental impacts of the material applied, independent of which material is chosen. Table 1: Current demand for materials in different application areas (1000 tonnes) Aluminium Steel
Other Plastics Wood, metals and paper rubber 1) and board
Cement Fired Clay
Glass Gypsum lime and other minerals
Consumption Passenger cars
460
10 920
124
2 849
Other transportation eq. Residential buildings
1 840
5 460
124
1 005
920
10 920
370
1 522
29 125
70 000
59 500 2 900
13 740
Other buildings
1 380
27 300
741
1 866
20 850
61 250
21 250 2 900
12 023
370
1 428
3 500
495
2 224
Roads Other infrastructure Machinery and other equipment Furniture and interior decoration Consumer durables Packaging Other non-durable products Others (auxiliaries and rest category) Total
460 1 380
32 760
460
5 460
460
5 460
920
5 460
920
2 656 247
5 460
9 200 109 200 2 469
17 500
1 535
26 250
2 303
27 275
3 876
3 831
1 450
13 324
38 400
18 850
475
42 144
3 265 34 489 165 125 175 000
4 250 2 900 85 000 29 000
1) plastics and rubber include PE, PP, PS, PVC, PET, other thermoplastics, other thermosets and synthetic rubber.
1
ii
The use phase is outside the scope of the project
29 600
Materials by application area in baseyear Other transportation eq. Consumer durables Passenger cars roads other infrastructure Furniture and interior decoration Machinery and other equipment Consumer non durables Packaging other buildings residential buildings 0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000 120000 140000 160000 180000 200000
ktonnes
Plastics and rubber Aluminium Cement Fired clay
Wood Steel Lime Glass
Paper and board Other metals Gypsum
Figure 1: Important materials by application area
&855(17(19,5210(17$/,03$&72)7+(0$7(5,$/66(&725 The determination of the environmental impact is based on the EcoIndicator approach. In this approach, the environmental impact indicators for carcinogenics, summer smog, winter smog, climate change, radiation, ozone depletion, ecotoxicity, acidification/eutrophication, land use, minerals depletion and fossil fuel depletion are given per unit of material. In addition, the environmental impact categories are aggregated into three damage categories: Human health, Ecosystem quality and Resource availability. Furthermore, one overall category is constructed into which all impact categories are weighted (the overall “EcoIndicator”). The environmental impact related to the consumption of a material is determined by its specific environmental impact (per kg of material) and the total amount of the material used. Therefore, environmental impacts related to the consumption of bulk materials are, in general, expected to be the most important because of the large volumes in which they are produced. The project focuses on the environmental effects of the production of basic materials (often bulk materials) and the options for reducing those effects that exist in the raw material production phase and the waste management phase. The environmental effects of production will generally be higher than those occurring during the use of the product. There are some important exceptions, that is applications that consume a continuous supply of energy and/or materials during use, such as cars, buildings and washing machines, or products that are dispersed during use, such as paint, propellants and detergents2.
2
The trade-off of environmental impacts during the production phase and those occurring during the use phase can only be taken into account by studying each individual product, application and conversion process, which is beyond the scope of this study. A number of important examples are covered in case studies in this report.
iii
The assessment of the current environmental impacts related to the selected materials shows the relative importance of materials to the different impact categories. It, however, also shows the relative importance of the different environmental impact categories to the total environmental stress. • In the damage category Human health, for instance, the most important environmental impact categories arriving from the materials sector are Winter smog3, Carcinogenics and Climate change. • In the damage category Ecosystem quality, Ecotoxicity is by far the most important impact category. The other impact categories, Acidification/eutrophication and Land use contribute much less. • In the damage category Resource Depletion fossil fuel depletion is currently the most dominant effect, but is partly caused by the lack of data on a number of rare metals possibly leading to an underestimation of mineral depletion. Not surprisingly, the main conclusion is that the largest part of the environmental problems, like carcinogenics, wintersmog, climate change and fossil fuel depletion, occurring from material use, can be found in the production of bulk materials like steel, cement, plastics and paper and board. The environmental effects for most of the application areas can be explained by the demand for one to three bulk materials. • The sector buildings (residential and non-residential) uses a large amount of steel, cement and fired clay. Cement is largely responsible for the environmental impacts summersmog and climate change, leading to a significant impact of the building sector to these human health impacts. • The application areas roads and infrastructure are largely responsible for climate change effects because of the use of cement and steel. • Consumer durables and furniture and decoration contribute to land use and fossil fuel depletion by the use of wood, paper and plastics. • Finally the packaging industry is a large contributor to climate change and fossil fuel depletion by the demand for plastics and paper and board. In Figure 2 the environmental impact of different application areas according to the overall Ecoindicator score is shown, with the division of materials.
3
Note that winter smog according to Cembureau is no longer an environmental issue.
iv
Environmental impact of application areas 12000000
Glass Gypsum and lime Fired clay Cement Copper Steel Aluminium Paper and board Wood and board Plastics and rubber
Eco-indicator (1000 points)
10000000
8000000
6000000
4000000
2000000
R oa ds
ru ct uu r
in fra st
Fu rn itu re
th er O
N
Pa on ck -re ag si in de g nt ia lb ui R ld es in id gs en tia lb ui ld in gs C M on ac su hi ne m er ry no ndu ra C on bl es su m er du ra bl es Pa ss en ge O rc th ar er s t ra ns po rt a tio n
0
Figure 2: Environmental impact of application areas according to the aggregated Eco-indicator score
The material sector (represented by the selection of materials in this study) has a considerable contribution to the total impact carcinogenics (24%), climate change (16%), ecotoxicity (39%) and fossil fuel depletion (28%). The relative impact of the material sector on radiation, ozone layer depletion, acidification and land use is much lower ( PAF/m2/yr Acidification/eutrophication and Land use are expressed as PDF that is Potentially Disappeared Fraction. Resource extraction is related to a parameter that indicates the quality of the remaining mineral and fossil resources. In both cases the extraction of these resources will result in higher energy requirements for future extraction. For a more detailed description of the methodology, the weighing scheme and a long list of materials, see Annex 3.1. The weighing step is the most subjective part of obtaining any type of aggregated environmental impact indicator. Therefore, our primary focus in this study is on the 11 underlying impact categories. In addition, we will also look at the recycle-ability of materials in order to assess the (potential) waste generation for the different materials. It must, however, be noted that an aggregated indicator will remain subjective, and therefore controversial, and that other LCA methods and weighing schemes may yield different results. And although the EcoIndicator99 has a broad base of support, criticism has been voiced, e.g. with respect to the way heavy metals and leaching are dealt with (see also the next paragraph on heavy metals). It must also be noted that for a number of the heavy metals (nickel, palladium, platinum, rhodium) the results of the EcoIndicator, and its underlying categories are of limited value. These metals are won in one single process (from mixed ores), which makes it necessary to allocate the environmental effects from the winning of mixed ores over the individual metal outputs. Within LCA methodologies such an allocation is often based on the economic value of the outputs. This is also the case in the EcoIndicator for the four metals mentioned. In general, this does not pose a major problem. The economic values for palladium, platinum and rhodium, however, are a factor of 8 000-10 000 larger than for nickel. Economic value may be a good indicator for the main motivation for a company to operate a certain multi-output process, which causes the environmental effects (which is how it is used in LCA's). It is, however, not useful in the context of this study, where we want to identify opportunities and bottlenecks to reduce environmental impacts of selected materials. The original scores of the metals are shown in the graphs in the Annex, but they cannot be compared to the other results. The allocation procedure used explains why the metals mentioned score several orders of magnitude larger than the others for all specific environmental impact categories. However, an aggregated environmental indicator can be a useful tool in the context of this study, e.g. to prioritise mitigation options.
20
Annex 3.2 shows the specific environmental impact for a large set of materials based on the 11 different environmental impact categories. For each of these 11 indicators a ‘Top-20’ of materials with the highest impact is made, taking into account their respective production volumes (the absolute environmental impact). This Top-20 for each of the environmental indicators is shown in Section 3.2.11 in Annex 3.2. The graphs are included in Annex 3.3. Results for the aggregated EcoIndicator and the damage categories Human health, Ecosystem quality and Resources are shown in Annex 3.4
3.3 SELECTION
OF MATERIALS TO BE ADDRESSED IN THE STUDY
Many of the materials score high on more than one environmental indicator. For our further analysis we have selected all materials that occur in the Top-10 of three or more of the desegregated environmental impact indicators (see Table 3-2, Annex 3.3). The selected materials are shown in Table 3-2. Materials that occur in the Top-10 of fewer indicators will be dealt with only if sufficient data are available on the basis of a limited number of case studies6. In addition, materials that occur in the Top-10 of materials according to the aggregated EcoIndicator are included.
6
The case studies carried out in this project can be found in Annex 7.
21
9
-
7
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
-
-
-
Cement
Primary aluminium Copper
Ceramics
PP
Cast iron
PE
PVC
Packaging carton Lead
22
6
3
Zinc
8
-
4
-
-
5
3
2
2
Paper
1
1
Steel
Material
-
-
8
3/6
9
5
-
-
-
1
-
4
2
EcoCarcino- Summer indicator genics smog absolute
-
7
-
-
6
-
-
10
4
3
-
1
2
Winter smog
-
7
5
-
10
-
6
8
3
4
9
2
1
Radiation
-
9
8
10
5
-
6
-
4
2
-
3
1
Climate change
-
10
1
4/5
7
-
-
-
6
9
-
2
3
-
9
-
-
5
8
4
-
6
2
-
3
1
Ozone Acidification/ depletion eutrophication
3
-
-
-
5
-
-
6
7
-
1
4
2
Ecotoxicity
-
3
9
-
10
-
7
-
4
5
-
2
1
Land use
4
-
-
-
8
-
-
-
3
1
5
9
2
-
-
7
5/6
9
4
3
-
8
10
-
2
1
Mineral Fossil fuel depletion depletion
-
-
7
-
-
-
2
-
-
3
-
-
-
Least recyclable materials
Table 3-2: Materials selection for the study with their impact rankings [1 = high impact, 10 is low impact]. Please note that these qualifications of materials are not meant to prefer one material over the other.
Residential buildings Nonresidential buildings Packaging Passenger cars Other transportation Roads Other infrastructure Machinery Furniture Consumer durables Consumer non-durables
Application area
5
1
3 6 8
11 10
2 9 7
4
2
1 7 8
11 9
3 10 6
4
carcino genics
5
EcoIndicator
6
3 8 5
11 10
1 7 9
2
4
Summer smog
4
5 10 7
11 9
1 8 6
2
3
Winter smog
11
6 10 9
4 8
1 7 5
3
2
Radiation
7
5 9 8
6 10
2 4 11
1
3
Climate change
8
11 7 5
10 9
3 1 6
4
2
Ozone depletion
1
7 11 9
8 10
3 5 4
6
2
Ecotoxicity
5
11 7 2
10 9
3 8 6
4
1
Acidification/ Eutrophication
6
4 10 1
9 7
3 5 11
8
2
Land use
4
7 5 3
9 11
8 6 10
2
1
Minerals depletion
8
10 5 1
9 4
6 11 7
3
2
Fossil fuel depletion
Table 3-3 Application areas with high impact scores according to the different environmental impact indicators [1 is hight impact, 11 is low impact]. Please note that these qualifications of materials are not meant to prefer one material over the other.
23
From the above two tables one can get to some obvious yet interesting observations. The absolute environmental impacts are determined by the relative environmental impact indicator multiplied by the consumption of materials by application area. Therefore, the largest environmental impact is of course expected from the application areas that use the largest amounts of material. The building and construction industry will cause a higher absolute impact by the huge demand for cement, than will for example the branch of furniture and decoration. Furthermore, the environmental effects of the application areas can be explained by the demand for one to three bulk materials. The sector buildings (residential and non-residential) uses a large amounts of steel, cement and fired clay. Cement ranks high on the environmental impacts summersmog and climate change, leading to a significant impact of the building sector to these human health impacts. The use of steel in the building sector causes carcinogenic effects. Roads and infrastructure are largely responsible for climate change effects because of the use of cement and steel. Passenger cars and transportation contribute to ozone layer depletion by the use of steel and PVC. Consumer durables (eg. furniture) contributes to land use and fossil fuel depletion by the use of wood, paper and plastics. The technology foresight studies, as well as the Technology map provided by IPTS, list a large number of so-called new materials. In most cases, what are mentioned are broad categories of materials rather than clear-cut individual materials. An important trend that already becomes obvious from these sources is that materials will become increasingly complex (often a mixture of elements and chemicals). The following summary of material categories can be made: - Superconductive materials - Biocompatible materials, biopolymers, bio-electronics, bio-sensors - Semi-conductor and electronics, magnetic, optical photonic, opto-electronic - Ceramic materials - Energy storage materials - New fibres: technical textiles There will be developments in all these categories and sub categories. Within the framework of this study it is not possible to cover all of them. A potentially relevant category comprises the materials used for energy conversion and/or storage, such as fuel cells and photovoltaics. These materials may become more important in the future, given the possible increase of these applications as a result of climate change policy and the interest from consumers in portable electronic equipment. Another interesting case is that of the biopolymers. Biopolymers, for instance, may have an effect on the environmental impact by replacing conventional plastics, thereby reducing resource depletion, energy-related environmental impacts and waste production7. A number of relevant cases are selected that seem relevant for current minor materials that may experience large growth rates in the future. The case studies can be found in Annex 7. The cases cover photovoltaics, fuel cells, buildings, mobile communication and biopolymers8.
7
On the other hand, existing LCA studies suggest that biopolymers cannot compete ecologically with conventional plastics in bulk applications and that their role can seen more in new and niche applications.
8
Additional case studies cover applications where a trade-off may exist between material selection in the producion phase and environmental effects during the use phase (cars and buildings).
24
3.4 ENVIRONMENTAL
IMPACT OF SELECTED MATERIALS
Figure 3-1 pictures the six environmental impact categories in the damage category human health for the year 2000. Clearly, the impact categories carcinogenics, winter smog9 and climate change relatively contribute much more to the damage category human health than the other three categories: summer smog, radiation and ozone layer depletion. This is explained by the fact that the effect of radiaton (from nuclear energy) and ozone layer depletion (due to emissions of CFC’s and HCFC’s) simply is less important to human health than the impact of carcinogenics and wintersmog, according to the Pré methodology (Pré 2000). Figure 3-1 Six environmental impact categories in the damage category human health in DALY (disability adjusted life years) [Data on specific impact per material from [PRé Consultants, 2001].
Human health year 2000 0.45 0.40 0.35
6
DALY (10 )
0.30 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.00
Carcinogenics Summersmog Wintersmog
Climate change
Radiation
Ozone layer depletion
Zinc Lime Gypsum Glass Fired Clay Cement Steel Copper Aluminium primair Paper and paperboard Fibreboard Particle board Sawnwood and Plywood Syn rubber Total plastics Thermosets Other TP PET PVC PS PP PE
9
According to Cembureau, wintersmog no longer is an environmental issue. RIVM (the Dutch National Institute for Public Health and the Environment) does state that the number of days a smog warning is issued has strongly decreased. Whether this also means the environmental issue itself has become mute could not be answered.
25
Figure 3-2 pictures the three environmental impact categories in the damage category ecosystem quality for the year 2000. As may be concluded from the figure, the impact category Ecotoxicity clearly contributes much more to the damage category ecosystem quality than the other two categories: acidification and land use. Zinc is the largest contributor to ecotoxicity because of the fact that emissions of heavy metals to soil are the largest effect contributing to ecotoxicity, the production (and hence emissions) of zinc are relatively large, and accumulation is significant. Ecosystem quality year 2000 140000
120000
6
PDF/m2/yr (10 )
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
Ecotoxicity
Acidification
Land use
Zinc Lime Gypsum Glass Fired Clay Cement Steel Copper Aluminium primair Paper and paperboard Fibreboard Particle board Sawnwood and Plywood Syn rubber Total plastics Thermosets Other TP PET PVC PS PP PE
Figure 3-2 Three environmental impact categories in the damage category ecosystem quality in PDF/m2/yr (potentially disappeared fraction per m2 per year) [Data on specific impact per material from [PRé Consultants, 2001].
26
Figure 3-3 pictures the two environmental impact categories in the damage category resource depletion for the year 2000. The impact category fossil fuels depletion clearly contributes much more to the damage category resource depletion than the category minerals depletion. Recource depletion year 2000 1000000 900000
TJ surplus energy
800000 700000 600000 500000 400000 300000 200000 100000 0
Minerals
Fossil fuels
Zinc Lime Gypsum Glass Fired Clay Cement Steel Copper Aluminium primair Paper and paperboard Fibreboard Particle board Sawnwood and Plywood Syn rubber Total plastics Thermosets Other TP PET PVC PS PP PE
Figure 3-3 Two environmental categories in the damage category resource depletion. [Data on specific impact per material from [PRé Consultants, 2001].
For minerals the most important contribution to the effect come from copper and zinc, and from tungsten, molybdenum and nickel (latter three not in our selection). There could be an underestimation of minerals depletion in this study, as a result of not selecting some exotic metals. The fossil fuel data are based on energy demand (including feedstock) in Europe, and one can clearly see the large contribution from plastics to this effect. Production of plastics typically requires 20 PJ process energy and 40 PJ feedstock per ton of product, compared to for example 25-30 PJ process energy per ton steel. Even more, the stocks of oil (used for plastics) are smaller that the stocks of coal (used for steel), therefore leading to a larger remaining energy use for extraction. This is also the explanation for the fact that plastics have a relative lower contribution to the effect climate change compared to steel: coal has a larger carbon content than oil, also the feedstock carbon is not emitted directly.
27
3.5 ENVIRONMENTAL
IMPACT OF APPLICATION AREAS
The total material consumption can be divided over different sectors and application areas, as shown in Table 2-1. In this section an overview is given of the importance of different application areas in terms of environmental impact related to material consumption. In this study we limit ourselves to application areas in which the bulk of the materials is being used. Only a number of non-bulk application areas that deserve particular attention are highlighted (see Annex 7). Those application areas are the areas where the choice of materials can: (1) have a significant impact on the environmental impact during the use of products for a specific application (e.g. special insulation materials, light-weight automobiles) (2) increase the sustainability of the product chain by limiting resource depletion and waste production (e.g. biomaterials) The current environmental impacts per application area for the eleven desegregated environmental impact indicators are shown in Annex 3.5 (all on an absolute basis, based on the material consumption per application area). Figure 3-4 shows the environmental impact of different application areas according to the aggregated Ecoindicator. Notice the high scores on the aggregated EcoIndicator for packaging, buildings, machinery and consumer non-durables. For the desegregated indicators mostly the same application areas score high. For ozone, passenger cars also have a high score. Consumer durables score high on the depletion of fossil fuels (use of plastics), acidification and land use (wood and paper).
28
Environmental impact of application areas 12000000
Glass Gypsum and lime Fired clay Cement Copper Steel Aluminium Paper and board Wood and board Plastics and rubber
Eco-indicator (1000 points)
10000000
8000000
6000000
4000000
2000000
N
R oa ds
tru ct uu r
nf ra s
Fu rn itu re
th er i O
on -re
Pa ck
ag si in de g nt ia lb ui R ld es in id gs en tia lb ui ld in gs C M on ac su hi ne m er ry no ndu ra C on bl es su m er du ra bl es Pa ss en ge O rc th ar er s tra ns po rta tio n
0
Figure 3-4: Environmental impact of application areas with respect to the EcoIndicator (base year values)
3.6 RELEVANCE
OF
THE
MATERIAL
SECTOR
IN
TOTAL
ENVIRONMENTAL
IMPACT
Now the environmental impact of the selected materials is estimated, one would question what relevance these figures have in the total environmental impact of human activities (and related emissions to air, soil, land use et cetera). Roughly, the material sector accounts for a quarter of the total environmental impact, according to Pré data and Pré normalisation values. The normalisation values give an indication of the total environmental stress due to all emissions in Western Europe. In Table 3-4 the contribution of the material sector, as far as selected for this study, to the different environmental impacts is shown, though one must realize that there is a lot of uncertainty in the data and that this can only be valued as a rough estimate. From these figures one can conclude that the materials that were selected for this study have a considerable contribution to the following impact categories: carcinogenics, climate change, ecotoxicity and fossil fuel depletion. The relative impact of the material sector on radiation, ozone layer depletion, acidification and land use is much lower. Possible opportunities to reduce these specific environmental impacts of materials must be seen in this context. For two impact categories, ozone layer depletion and mineral depletion, the normalisation values must be considered as less reliable.
29
Table 3-4: Comparison of the calculated impacts of the materials system with normalisation values for environmental effects in Western Europe (Pré, 2000) Environmental impact
Normalisation Contribution Percentage of value of selected the effect materials covered by material selection DALY/yr 8.E+05 2.E+05 24%
Remarks
Respiratory effects due to organic substances: summersmog
DALY/yr 3.E+04
2.E+03
8%
Repiratory effects due to inorganic substances: wintersmog Climate change
DALY/yr 4.E+06
4.E+05
10%
Harmful effect lower than from inorganic substances. Important substances are xylene and other VOC’s. Contribution of PM10 is high, also SO2 and NOx
DALY/yr 9.E+05
1.E+05
16%
Radiation
DALY/yr 1.E+04
8.E+02
7%
Ozone layer depletion (increased UV)
DALY/yr 8.E+04
2.E+03
2%
Ecotoxicity
PAFm2yr/ 3.E+12 yr
1.E+12
39%
Acidification / Eutrophication
PDFm2yr/ 1.E+11 yr
1.E+10
9%
Land-use
PDFm2yr/ 2.E+12 yr MJ/yr 6.E+10
1.E+10
1%
1.E+11
196% *
Carcinogenics
Minerals depletion
Clearly CO2 is dominating. Using data by IEA on emissions of CO2, CH4 and N2O. Ionising radiation from emissions per TWh electricity production by nuclear power plants. Industrial nuclear activities are not included. Based on production figures from 1990, which is not very reliable due to changes in production and big differences in production and emission data) The main contribution is from emission of heavy metals to industrial soil (long time frame resistance), arsenic, cadmium, lead, nickel , zinc. Based on IEA data. Pré notes that the contribution of SOx is remarkably low, explained by the low or negative contribution of the substance to eutrophication. Data from Eurostat
Consumption data for the USA were used and converted to the EU by number of inhabitants. Fossil fuel depletion MJ/yr 3.E+12 9.E+11 28% Consumption data for the USA were used and converted to the EU by number of inhabitants. * This is an unreliable normalisation figure. Note that it is not impossible that this fraction exceeds 100%. The normalisation value refers to the minerals depletion in the Western European region, which is compared to the effect of the WE material system that includes the use of materials in Western Europe that are extracted outside WE. Still, we expected an underestimation of the effect minerals depletion due to not selecting some exotic and rare materials.
30
3.7 CONCLUSIONS The assessment of the current environmental impacts related to the selected materials shows the relative importance of materials to the different impact categories. It, however, also shows the relative importance of the different environmental impact categories. In the damage category Human health, for instance, the most important environmental impact categories are Winter smog10, Carcinogenics and Climate change. In the damage category Ecosystem quality, Ecotoxicity is by far the most important impact category. The other impact categories, Acidification/eutrophication and Land use contribute much less. In the damage category Resource depletion fossil fuel depletion is currently the most dominant effect, but is partly caused by the lack of data on a number of rare metals possibly leading to an underestimation of mineral depletion. From the pictures shown in this chapter, some important effects of materials in environmental impacts can be retreived. Therefore it is also clear in what direction the technological research should focus in order to decrease the specific environmental impact, of course with the relative contribution of the materials sector in mind. To reduce the effect on carcinogenics, the production of paper and paperboard and steel should receive attention. Wintersmog is mainly caused by substances like CO, SOx and NOx, emitted in production of paper and paperboard, steel and cement. Summersmog can not or hardly be explained by the materials sector (but for example by traffic). The part of climate change as a result of the use of materials, can be found in use of steel and cement. Ecotoxicity can be addressed by giving attention to the use of zinc, and more general: heavy metals (not all in the selection). Acidification and land use are not considered caused by the materials sector to a great extent. Furthermore fossil fuel depletion is caused by energy demand in production of materials and products and by the use of oil as input for production of plastics. Not surprisingly, the main conclusion is that the largest part of the environmental problems, like carcinogenics, wintersmog, climate change and fossil fuel depletion, occurring from material use, can be found in the production of bulk materials like steel, cement, plastics and paper and board. For our further analysis we have selected all materials that occur in the Top-10 of three or more of the desegregated environmental impact indicators. The selected materials include the materials steel, aluminium, copper, zinc, lead, cement, glass, ceramics, lime/gypsum/fired clay, polyethylene, polypropylene, polystyrene, PVC, PET, paper & board and wood (split into fibreboard, particle board and sawnwood/plywood). Sometimes the polymers are defined as the group “plastics”.
10
Note that winter wmog, according to Cembureau is no longer an environmental issue.
31
32
75(1'6$1' &5266&87 7, 1*7(&+12/2 *,(6
4.1 INTRODUCTION In this study, technologies and trends are considered that either: • have a strong influence on the specific environmental impact in the production or consumption of materials; • have a strong influence on the type of material used in a specific application area; • have a strong influence on the amount of material used in a specific application area; • have a strong influence on the growth rate in a specific application area (mainly relevant for new materials). To a certain extent, the developments and trends are an extrapolation of trends that are currently visible. In a number of cases, trend changes can have a contradictory outcome and the final conclusion can hardly be estimated, certainly on a 30-year time scale. Per application area, a brief qualitative overview in keywords is given of expected trends and developments. Relevant technologies and trends in this study can be divided into: • Material production and processing technologies, directly influencing the environmental impact of the production and processing of materials, e.g. thin-slab casting in steel production or membrane electrolysis in the production of chlorine (intermediate for PVC production); • Application technologies and trends, distinguishing between structural and/or behavioural trends (also called soft technologies), such as changes in eating and cooking habits or the trend towards larger homes, and cross cutting technologies, such as the increased use of ICT and electronics; • Waste processing and material recovery technologies, aiming at increasing reuse and recycling, e.g. back-to-monomer recycling of plastics In this section trends and new developments in application areas are identified that can have an influence on the amount of material used, the type of materials used within an application area and on the amount and type of waste generation. Examples of such trends are consumer or product trends (increased comfort requirements, increased electrification, more mobile and cordless devices, increased hygiene and safety), marketing and distribution trends (product service systems, ecommerce, just in time delivery to client), trends in organisation (prefab building and production, paperless office, teleworking).
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4.2 CONSTRUCTION
4.2.1 BUILDINGS An important trend currently observed in the buildings sector is an increase in total number of dwellings (from 144 million in the EU in 1999 to 156 million in 2010), mainly due to smaller household size. More compact and multifamily buildings, due to environmental and spatial restriction concerning land use may partly compensate this trend. Currently a trend towards more multifamily dwellings is already observed (52% of new dwellings versus 46% of total building stock). The trend towards compact buildings is not yet observed (average useful floor area per dwelling is still increasing from 83 m2 in 1980 to 99 m2 in 1999) [Sectoral objectives, 2000] . Another trend that can already be observed is the higher demand of comfortable living, e.g. more installations and advanced control systems (alarm, thermostat, smart kitchen). Overall this will lead to an increase in the amount of building materials used. Other trends that may play a role in the buildings sector in the future are: • Reduction of building construction time (Prefab building and on-site assembly) • Modular building • Building for disassembly and reuse • Shorter building life • Low maintenance buildings • Sustainable building materials • High rise buildings; high density living and building use • Compact cities and compact buildings; function integration in one building (living, work, leisure, nature, care, shops) • Increased use of sustainable energy sources • Integrated networks Overall, the amount of material used will probably grow, certainly in the short term, when smaller household size leads to an increase in the number of households and thus buildings and products. In the longer term, compact cities, high density living, product and facility sharing may stabilise this trend. The growth concerns all materials for buildings and products. Effect on material selection: No major shifts are expected to occur. Foreseen is a higher demand for wire materials for networks, less ceramics (roof tiles and bricks) and more concrete; Increased use of insulation materials (glass or stone fibre, PUR, but also vacuumed foam panels) is expected. Zinc and copper for exterior water pipes will be replaced by PVC and other plastics. Increased input of recycled materials (granulated concrete, secondary Al, steel, plastics) is expected as well as increased use of glass with coatings and inert fillings. Increased attention for sustainable material production will also play a role.
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Effect on material recycling and waste: With regard to recycling trends design for building recycling and increased separation of waste fractions is expected, resulting in increased recycling options. This will result in less final waste and a lower requirement of primary material input. The case study on buildings in Annex 7 describes in more detail the options to reduce the environmental impact of buildings, and the possible trade-off between material selection in the construction phase and the environmental impacts during the use phase.
4.2.2 INFRASTRUCTURE The application area infrastructure comprises roads, railway tracks, airports, sewage, power lines and waterways. For roads, the still increasing demand for road transportation will result in increasing traffic densities and increasing road demand. Currently, about 3.8 billion km of roads are present in Europe. Road construction is expected to increase with 40% between now and 2025. Almost 90% of asphalt is used for road repair, in contrast to new road construction [Gielen, 97]. In this application area we expect the following trends and new developments. • Growth in number of roads • Intelligent roads (vehicle guidance, traffic control, weather control, etc.) • High speed railroad tracks and energy supply • Magnetic rail • Underground construction of transport infrastructure • Huge increase in number of airports and runways Effect of the above trends on the amount of material used: A strong growth, due to growing need for goods and passenger transport is expected, resulting in a growth in concrete, asphalt, gravel and sand. In addition, growth in copper (railroad power supply), potentially also in aluminium (replacement for copper) can be expected. Effect on the material selection: A possible trend is the growth in open-textured asphalt concrete in favour of conventional concrete for roads. Increasingly, intelligent materials and ICT materials will be used in and around roads, such as LED-lighting, sensors, information panels and communication devices between cars and road. Material recycling and waste: We expect an increased use of recycled materials as additives in road construction (e.g. blast furnace slags, fly ash).
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4.3 TRANSPORT
4.3.1 AUTOMOTIVE The expectation is that people will make longer trips, and more frequently use private cars for their trips. Passenger-kilometres are therefore expected to grow from 3300 billion p-km in 1990 to 4400 billion p-km in 2010 [Sectoral objectives, 2000]. General trends in the automotive sector are increased ownership and heavier cars, due to higher demands with regard to luxury (e.g. more space, air conditioning, navigation systems), environmental regulations (e.g. catalysts) and safety requirements (e.g. air bags, reinforced doors, anti-theft immobilisers). As a result, companies are developing lightweight auto bodies to partly offset this trend, leading to a competition between steel (high strength), aluminium and plastics. The following trends may also play a role in the future in this application area: • Increase in city cars (small, two-seater, lightweight, low emissions) • Electronic driver: route planning systems (available), cruise control, surround detection, auto-guidance systems (follow other cars, follow pre-selected route), also resulting in energy-efficient driving • Short term motor improvement: increased motor efficiency, lower emissions; use of biofuels (diesel, alcohol) • Long term motor innovation: hybrid cars, fuel cell (H2, natural gas, bio-ethanol, but also oil derived fuels), gearbox replaced by electro-motor • Changes in ownership: renting, leasing, car sharing • Car take back guarantee: automated car disassembly, design for recycling (linked to developments like recycling of zinc plated steel) Effect of the above trends on the material consumption: A strong growth in copper and aluminium used in electric motors can be expected. A growth in use of platinum, palladium and rhodium caused by use of catalysts and fuel cells may be observed, as well as a growth in electronic materials for ICT in vehicles (see also Annex 7.2 for a case study on fuel cells and Annex 7.5 for a case study on the trade-off between material selection in car manufacture and energy consumption in the use phase). Effect on material selection: It is unclear whether one of the materials used for car bodies will win, or whether all three (aluminium, high strength steel and plastics) will coexist. Depending on this, a strong growth in the use of aluminium, (fibre-reinforced) plastics or high strength steel may be observed. Effect on material recycling and waste: We expect the recyclability of cars to increase, resulting in an increased input of recycled materials (notably plastics) in bulk applications at the expense of virgin materials.
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4.3.2 AVIATION A strong growth in aviation is expected, with passenger transport more than doubling (from 160 billion p-km in 1990 to 410 billion p-km in 2010) [Sectoral objectives, 2000]. The increasing energy consumption is partly offset by increasing energy efficiency, due to improvements in propulsion, plane design, new materials, etc. Trends that may play a role in the future in this application area are: • Increase in amount of jet-planes and propeller planes • Increase in size of intercontinental planes to above 800 passengers • Increase in amount of helicopters for person transport (cities) • Increase (comeback) of rigid airships for city and inter-city transport • Use of fibre-reinforced aluminium or aluminium sandwich materials for plane structure and wings • Weight reduction of aeroplanes, through sandwich boards Effect of the above trends on material use: An increased use of aluminium, aluminium alloys, laminates and sandwich metals can be expected, as well as an increase in special surface technology for aeroplane bodies. Effect on material selection: A shift from steel parts to titanium or magnesium may be observed. Effects on material recycling and waste: Recycling plays a small role in the life cycle of an aeroplane, because of the high demands on the quality of materials. The introduction of sandwich materials may lead to an increase in final waste, because of low recycle-ability.
4.4 PRODUCTS
4.4.1 CONSUMER
DURABLES
The area of consumer durables covers furniture, appliances, medical products and miscellaneous products. For this application area the following, sometimes contradictory, trends may be expected: • More products in spite of smaller household size (furniture, appliances, textiles) • Increased product quality, more functionality, better materials • Design for environment: design for recycling, • Shorter product life, because of faster changes in fashion trends (e.g. furniture) • Mass customisation: more, but smaller product series, tailor made products • Electrification (motorisation, electric operation, remote control) • Increased intelligence in products • Wireless connection
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Effect of the above trends on material use: Trends are partly contradictory, but overall material consumption is expected to increase. Electric motor materials will grow stronger than average, as will batteries and electronics. Increasing material consumption because of the growing number of products may, for certain applications, be partly offset by products becoming smaller. Effect on material selection: A shift from cheap plastics to more expensive plastics with higher value (stronger, better surface quality, enabling special finishes and colours) is expected. This means a shift towards polycarbonate, ABS, but at the same time also polyamide and PET variants. For certain applications, such as furniture and interior decoration, material selection is very much subject to short-term fashion trends, rather than continuous long-term trends. Therefore, changes in material selection can occur very fast. Effect on material recycling and waste: A technical potential for material recycling will exist due to shorter life cycles and better materials. Due to increase take-back obligations recycling of appliances is expected to increase.
4.4.2 CONSUMER
DISPOSABLES
This application area covers short life consumer goods such as toys, games, books, journals and disposable products. Trends (partly opposing) that may occur in this area are: • An increase in throw-away households products (cleaning cloths, paper towels, napkins, etc.) • Design for environment, design for bulk recycling, design for incineration • More online publishing • An increase in electronic toys (computer games, moving/speaking dolls) • Shorter product life • Separate collection of different products/waste types Effect of the above trends on material use: Some trends will have contradictory effects, but overall, material consumption is expected to increase. Effect on material selection: Design for recycling would result in more products made of fewer materials: increased application possibilities of relatively cheap and standard plastics, such as PET, polyethylene, polypropylene. On the other hand increasing use of electronics will result in a more complex material composition. Effect on material recycling and waste: Material selection at household waste level can be expected, aiming for bulk recycling and monomer reuse.
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4.4.3 ICT
EQUIPMENT
The general trend in the area of ICT is an increasing ownership and short practical lifetime, because of rapidly improving technology (speed, capacity). The following trends may play a role in the future with regard to ICT equipment: • Desktop computers: network terminals instead of heavy computers • Flat screens, integrated sound systems and small projectors • Growth in data storage capacity, both in hard disks and in removable carriers such as floppy disks. • Integration of equipment: fax, copier, printer, scanner; TV, radio and computer; • Use of virtual reality in work situations • Open networks with high capacity, enabling direct visual contact with others • Electronic document film (temporary paper), replacing paper in a number of situations • Digital organiser, wallets Effect of the above trends on material use: Some of the trends are contradictory. Overall, the growth in ownership and the rapid turnover of ICT equipment is expected to outweigh the effects of smaller equipment. A growth in the amount of plastics is expected (housings e.g. ABS, SAN, also special grades PET, polypropylene and to a lesser extent engineering types e.g. polyamide, teflon). Also a growth in printed circuit boards, and side equipment (e.g. transformers, copper wire) will be observed. Trends that are likely to be observed are a growth in batteries, in storage media (partly compensated by the higher storage capacity per gram). Effect on material selection: A shift from paper to temporary information carrier (flexible plastic screen with magnetic or optical properties) may occur. Effect on material recycling and waste: An increase is expected in reuse and disassembly of valuable components, reuse of systems, and in a later stage a drop in reuse and increase in bulk recycling of all electronics for reuse of the precious metals. An influence from recycling legislation can be expected, potentially resulting in separate waste streams for electronics. Rare metals consumption warrants the need for recycling schemes (see also the case study on mobile phones in Annex 7.3).
4.5 PACKAGING An important trend for packaging in general and food packaging in particular is the trend towards smaller households and more two-job households. This results in smaller portions, more take-out or ready-to-eat meals, less frequent shopping (i.e. stronger demands on shelf life) and more deliveries.
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4.5.1 FOOD
PACKAGING
The following trends are expected for the application area of food packaging: • Increased consumer convenience: portion packs, re-closable packaging, shop-to-table ware. • Food preparation and consumption change strongly: microwave cooking leads to increase of microwave materials; • Product safety and food safety are of increasing importance, resulting in extra packaging and more complex and intelligent packaging materials (tamper evident, insulation, moisture protection, special protective atmospheres) • Increased use of biodegradable packaging is probable if composting stays/becomes standard option for household waste treatment. Effect of the above trends on material use: An increase in the amount of food packaging and complex and intelligent materials with high barrier standards is expected. Effect on material selection: More plastics and less of the other materials are expected to be used. Effect on material recycling and waste: Packaging waste becomes more difficult to recycle, because of the increasing complexity of the materials. Biomaterials are designed for biodegradability, not for recycling.
4.5.2 NON-FOOD
PACKAGING
The following trends in consumer product packaging are expected: • Increased home delivery (Internet shopping) leads to increased amount of packaging • Tracking and tracing: remote control of location of products, automated stocks and truck loading. The following trends can be expected in professional packaging: • Subject to packaging legislation, resulting in concentration on certain bulk materials: polyethylene, polystyrene foam, wood (crates), cardboard (boxes). • Tracking and tracing, intelligent packaging: data logging of ambient temperature, shocks, moisture, GPS • Product warranty leads to increased amount and quality of packaging • Either/Or trend: EITHER more and more delivering companies take packaging material back and take care of reuse or disposal (trends towards reuse) OR packaging materials fit perfectly in standard waste streams and can be disposed of without additional cost (trend towards disposal). Effect of the above trends on material use: An increase in all materials is expected.
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Effect on material selection: A concentration on bulk materials is expected, intelligence in primary packaging, for either quality, safety, warranty or anti-theft. Effect on material recycling and waste: Increased recycling rates for packaging waste are expected, also stimulated by waste regulations. Reuse will remain a limited option for the next ten years.
4.6
CROSS-CUTTING TECHNOLOGIES
4.6.1 INTRODUCTION As discussed before, the environmental effects of material use are directly influenced by changes in materials production and trends in application areas. The environmental effects are also indirectly affected by more general technological developments. These technologies cannot easily be assigned to a certain material or application area and are therefore called cross-cutting technologies. In this section, cross-cutting technologies will be identified that may have an impact on the environmental effect of the use of materials. A long list of technological developments has been taken from a variety of publications, mainly technology foresight studies. The technologies have been grouped and the following categories have been made: - Information and communication technologies - Biotechnologies and biosciences - Energy technologies - Microsystems and nanotechnologies These categories to a large extent resemble the categories defined by IPTS in the Technology road map [IPTS, 2000]. Additional technologies included in the Technology road map, such as environmental technology, material technology and production and processing technology are not considered to be cross-cutting technologies and are covered in Chapter 6.
4.6.2 INFORMATION
AND
COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY
ICT represents an important technological development over the last decade, and will continue to do so in the next decade. Developments in both the hardware (computing power, sensors, feedback mechanisms and so on), in software and in networks (communication between people and products) will mark the development of individual products and services. Computing power is becoming ubiquitous, everybody and almost everything is linked within a network with global communication possibilities. The combination of ICT with micro systems technologies (sensors, actuators) provides self-regulating systems at low cost, e.g. the intelligent kitchen. ICT also resulted in a new way of marketing, sales and distribution.
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The impact of ICT on material use can be significant. The hardware consists of printed circuit boards, integrated circuits, other electronic components and fibreglass, copper or wireless communication networks. The material efficiency of ICT equipment has gone up tremendously already and the end, due to developments in hardware and software, is not yet in sight. The absolute growth of the sector however leads to an overall increase of material use in itself. On the other hand, ICT may result in changes in material efficiency and material substitution: electronic paper replacing real paper, smart sensors and calculation power creating slim and intelligent applications rather than oversized. For more details on this, see Section 4.4.3, and the case study on mobile communication in Annex 7.3.
4.6.3 BIOTECHNOLOGY
AND BIO SCIENCES
Biotechnology and the related biosciences are research and development fields with a potentially large impact on society, since they can be found in areas such as: food, pharmaceutical products, cosmetics, healthcare and medicine biodegradable plastics high speed analysis on-chip biosensors DNA testing The influence on materials is most apparent in biologically produced and biodegradable plastics. If the right biological processes can be identified and brought to production scale, it may lead to a drastic change from traditional oil-based plastics to renewable plastics for widespread use. In the production of other natural materials such as paper, pulp and natural fibres, biotechnology will contribute to a much cleaner and more efficient production and waste processing technologies. Examples can be found in the pulp and paper industry where knowledge of plant DNA leads to enzymatic processes to break wood fibres down and remove lignin with less energy. The products could both be used as improved paper and as bioplastics. [STFI meeting, January 2001]. Further research may lead to the application of natural dyes or inks that can replace current colour artificial inks in printers. Biosensors may also contribute to the measurement of pollution in reusable food packaging. In general biosensors can measure pollution real time, enabling better process management in industrial wastewater treatment, but also in refrigerators, dishwashers or washing machines. The potential of chip-size laboratory tests and other sophisticated biosensors will certainly improve the material and energy efficiency of current (medical) analysis methods. In many other cases, the economic or social meaning may be gigantic, but the direct material volumes related, or the materials selected, are not very large. Growth can be expected in micro-electronic materials, special plastics that absorb and diffuse biological materials and membrane materials. In return, they bring higher energy and water efficiency. For more details see also the case study on biomaterials in Annex 7.6.
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4.6.4 ENERGY
TECHNOLOGIES
Energy technologies, relevant for material use, can be divided into: Energy conversion technologies Energy conversion technologies can either focus on efficient production from current sources or on renewable energy sources (solar, wind). Energy storage technologies One major issue in energy use and conversion is the need to store energy in the right form between conversion (“production”) and use.
4.6.4.1 ENERGY
CONVERSION
A number of new energy conversion technologies may become more important in the coming decades. Important examples could be photovoltaic solar cells (PV) and fuel cells (mainly for transport) as low-emission energy conversion technologies. Solar Energy Environmental policy making could result in a strong growth in PV systems. Currently, electricity from PV systems is expensive and R&D is directed towards using less of the currently used materials, using different materials and increasing system efficiency. PV systems have a large potential for reducing the environmental effects of current electricity generation systems, such as climate change, acidification/eutrofication and fossil fuel depletion. If appropriately integrated into the surroundings, also land use will be reduced compared to fossil fuels systems (less mining required). Because of the production process of PV panels, with many chemical treatments, and the use of more exotic materials environmental aspects such as human toxicity, ecotoxity and resource availability (e.g. rare metals) can be an issue. With regard to the latter, recovery and recycling schemes will be important, both from an economic point of view as well as an environmental point of view. Fuel cells Fuel cells offer a potential for energy conversion from non-renewable energy sources, such as oil, as well as renewable sources (solar-produced hydrogen, biofuels) into electricity and heat. Applications are mainly found in co-generation of heat and electricity, vehicle propulsion and long lasting electricity supply in products. Especially in transport, fuel cells are considered an important option to reduce the environmental impacts of current automotive transport. As such, fuel cells could experience a strong growth on the long term. The challenge in fuel cell development for practical applications has been to improve the economics through the use of low-cost components with acceptable life and performance. This is still an ongoing process. Low-cost electrodes and electrolytes have been developed, but real market penetration still has to take place. Engineering, materials improvements, and manufacturing processes are being developed to produce fuel cells with sufficiently high power, acceptable lifetimes, and affordable costs. The use of platinum poses problems in terms of economics, environmental impacts and resource availability. Therefore, recovery and recycling will be important. For more details see the case study on PV in Annex 7.1 and the case study on fuel cells in Annex 7.2.
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4.6.4.2 ENERGY
STORAGE
The increase of the use of electrical and electronic devices, combined with our demand for mobility create an large demand for storage media for electrical energy. In addition, emissions requirements on vehicles, notably in cities, is driving the automobile industry towards the adoption of electrical motors and batteries for energy storage. The fuel cell may require energy storage in the form of hydrogen in pressure tanks, metal hydrides or in nano carbon tubes. Breakthroughs in battery chemistry have come to the market relatively slowly compared to computer advancements such as memory and processor speed, often because it takes time to prove life expectations. The low weight and high energy density make it a logical fit for device manufacturers and mobile device users, and there is a rapid developing market in batteries for camcorders, laptops, telephones etc. Main batteries at this moment are: Nickel-cadmium (NiCd) is the most widely used type of rechargeable battery today, and has had the longest market presence. However, the NiCd chemistry has several disadvantages that are forcing device designers to seek out new technologies. Increasingly, environmental concerns will tend to limit future applications and sales, especially in the EU, where a phase-out of NiCd is foreseen. In addition, the strong 'memory effect’ of the NiCd tends to limit its performance, while it has a reasonable but not exceptional storage capacity in relation to mass and volume envelope; Nickel-metal-hydride (NiMH) has evolved over the past five years as the next step in power solutions for portable devices. NiMH is an improvement over NiCd in terms of chemistry, because it contains no cadmium, it runs for 30-40% longer than NiCd and power densities are 20-30% higher. However, it does not currently provide an increase in energy sufficient enough to make it cost-effective, and improvements will not occur in time to compete with other options. One of those options is the emerging lithium-ion technology. Lithium-ion batteries have half the weight of a NiCd battery for the same volume, but provide three times the energy. A metal packaging is required around the liquid electrolyte. Problems are still related to high self-discharge rates, sensitivity to over-charging/deep discharge and extreme temperatures. The next advances are expected in lithium polymer, which overcomes the packaging problems of lithium ion and can be moulded or shaped to suit the product. Lithium polymer batteries also offer higher energy density levels – current developments are aiming for specific energy of 200 - 250 W/kg, and energy density of 350 - 400W/l. Applications are currently being developed for what is likely to be an important material.
4.6.5 MICRO
SYSTEMS TECHNOLOGIES AND NANOTECHNOLOGY
Micro systems technology (MST) MST is a relatively new technology, which exploits the existing microelectronics infrastructure to create complex machines with micron feature sizes. These machines can have many functions, including sensing, communication and actuation. Extensive applications for these devices exist in both commercial and defence systems.
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Rapid advances in micro-systems technology (MST) have enabled the scaling down of components and devices, leading to ever decreasing size of end products such as cameras, telephones and personal computers. The small sizes confer advantages such as enhanced performance, portability and utility at lower cost. While this phenomenon is commonly associated with microelectronics, the next wave in micro-technology is likely to be commercial development of systems which add mechanical functionality to electronic devices, making it possible not only to process and store data on a microscopic scale, but to physically act on the information. The microscopic scale of these microelectromechanical systems opens up potential for new products and applications, which would otherwise not be feasible. Examples of these are small sensors used to monitor acceleration and orientation of micro objects, or to measure pressure of, and analyse chemicals in, air or fluids. Other applications include the design and development of tiny devices that can be introduced inside the blood stream of the human body for diagnostic or specific healing purposes. The range of possible applications is large. MST promises a wide range of mainly new applications on microscale, especially in medical applications and real time analysis. Although MST could replace much larger and much more energy consuming products, machines and analytical procedures, it will generally create new applications. The overall effect on material use and energy use will therefore be very hard to define. Nanotechnology Nanotechnology is defined as technology in which dimensions and tolerances in the range from 100 nm to 0,1 nm play a critical role. The field of nanotechnology is extremely broad and covers everything from electronics, healthcare products to micro electronic mechanical machines (MEMs). Nanotechnology promises smaller, lighter, cheaper and faster devices with greater functionality while using less raw materials and less energy. There is a high uncertainty connected to many of the expected developments in terms of feasibility and quantitative effects. This study therefore limits itself to more qualitative indicators. With nanotechnology new material structures can be formed and special ultra thin layers can be formed. Applications of nanotechnology can or will be found in: - Optics: self cleaning glass, ultra flat glass, hard and scratch resistant surfaces - Chemistry: chemical sensors in material layers; nanoporosity for supermembranes, resulting in improved purity of chemicals and pharmaceuticals. - Materials: plastics enriched or reinforced with individual particles, for increased material properties or for plastic with electrical or optical characteristics (electronics in plastics, intelligent packaging materials); corrosion prevention, material surface hardening. - Energy storage and fuel cells: energy storage of hydrogen in nanotubes or in metal hydrides, increased loading capacity and lower price of batteries. - Medicine: implanted biosensors; UV-protection of materials and human body through UVabsorbing particles. - ICT: display technologies for flat, light and flexible screens in a wide application range. Plastic electronics, chips with less than 100nm features, with strongly increased storage capacity and work speed. Manufacturing processes at the nanoscale can involve accretion or removal of material, or changes to the shape or form of material already present. In each of these processes new frontiers have to be
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crossed. For example, new generations of processing equipment will be needed to deal with nanopowders in the manufacture of nanocrystalline materials. Also, deposition has been achieved only through focused ion beam sources operated in droplet mode - an approach which is restrictive in terms of the range of materials that can be handled. Materials science and technology is fundamental to the majority of the applications of nanotechnology. ’Raw’ materials such as semiconductors, oxides and specialist organic and inorganic chemicals, will need to meet new specifications and parameters. Production methods will have to meet very specific new demands. Some examples are: - Controlled production of nanoparticles in the 1 - 100 nm size range is crucial, and handling of these fine particles will be a key issue. - Quantum structures: Material purity is of the highest importance here, and research into production methodology is required. - Multilayer thin films require clean deposition equipment and environment (impurities and defects will ruin the properties of the films) with high throughput. Also, very high purity materials will be needed for sputtering and evaporation sources. - Biosensors and transducers: The capability of synthesising ultra high purity specialist organic chemicals having a range of terminating groups for these applications is required, as well as ways of bonding these molecules reproducibly to the surfaces of semiconductors and oxide materials Effects on the Environment Nanotechnology has the potential for reducing the material intensity of products, because applications can become much smaller. On the other hand, it may also lead to new applications, leading to an increase in material consumption and the equipment needed to produce nanoscale applications may require a substantial material input. It seems likely that the application of nanotechnology will lead to a less intensive use of bulk materials, but to higher consumption of more exotic materials, rare metals, etc. The way the materials are processed, especially considering the high purity requirements and the low tolerance (leading to more rejected material and products), may result in an increase of certain environmental impacts such as human toxicity and ecotoxity. Whether this will be outweighed by the positive environmental effects obtained from reduced material and increased energy efficiency is impossible to say at this point in time.
4.7 SUMMARY
AND CONCLUSIONS
In this chapter a lot of trends and new technologies have been qualitatively described. It’s not possible in the scope of this study to quantify the effects, if at all impossible. The fact is that it would mean to execute a life cycle analyses for all materials, products and processes in use now and probably in use in 30 years. The described trends will certainly have their influence on the environmental impact of the material sector, in which some trends will have a positive effect and others a negative effect. This chapter has served to give a brief impression of possibly important developments. The final result of these interfering processes and interacting trends is unsure, therefore no quantified outcomes are generated although an increase in material demand is to be expected. The scenario’s that are developed in chapter 5 will to a certain extend consider the trends and developments described in this chapter.
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352-(&7,216 )25)878 5( 0$7(5,$/ &2168037,2 1
5.1 INTRODUCTION In this chapter the expected trends in the production and consumption of materials and the generation and processing of waste are described in a quantitative way. To retrieve at a well founded range of future material consumption, three methods are followed. In the first approach the total volume development per material is projected. Three scenarios are discerned, which are linked to three different projections of economic growth (see Figure 5-1 and Annex 4.1). For each of these scenarios, projections have been prepared for the main bulk materials in Western Europe (in physical quantities). Section 5.2 describes this approach followed to estimate future material consumption, material production and waste generation and the resulting projections. The projections described in Section 5.2 include certain trends in material substitution, material recycling and product design. Since the extent to which these trends occur in a ‘Business as Usual’ development are uncertain, a second scenario is used to obtain a range of likely developments. This scenario, referred to as the ‘frozen Matter’ scenario, is based on growth figures of application areas, assuming no material efficiency improvement and no inter-material substitution to occur compared to the current situation. This scenario is developed for all the materials selected in chapter 3, based on the application areas described in chapter 2. The approach followed to estimate material consumption in the frozen Matter scenario and the resulting projections are described in Section 5.3. In section 5.4 some scenario’s that can be found in other sources are given in order to make a quality check on the scenario’s constructed in this study [Worrell et al, 1997]. Also the opinions of some industry experts are given. So, the approach is threefold: • Bulk material consumption and production scenario’s • Frozen Matter scenario’s for all selected materials • Other scenario’s for comparison
section 5.2 section 5.3 section 5.4
Section 5.5 compares the most likely range for future material consumption and production established and a table is presented with the most likely range of future material consumption and production.
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Note that the described trends and technologies in chapter 4 do play a limited role in the development of the scenario’s as such, because they are based on existing economic models, expert opinions and other underlying assumptions.
5.2 PROJECTIONS
FOR MATERIAL CONSUMPTION
5.2.1 APPROACH
FOR PROJECTING MATERIAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION
Projections for production, trade and consumption were generated by correcting extrapolations of past developments for the expected impacts of major trends expected for the next three decades. They are calculated as a function of GDP growth. Three different scenarios are distinguished: "Low Growth" (with GDP growing with 1.3%/yr), "Base Case" (with GDP growing at 1.9%/yr) and "High Growth" (GDP grows with 2.8%/yr), see Figure 5-1 and Annex 4.1. The composed GDP data are based on various sources, i.e. - Information from National Communications to the UNFCCC (larger EU Member States considered) - IEA: World Energy Outlook, 2000 - Various projects, some executed with involvement of Ecofys, e.g. IKARUS, ICARUS, DACES, Sectoral objectives (EU), Shared Analysis Project (EU) Assumptions about developments of eco-efficiency assumed for the projections are: • efforts by companies in the areas of more efficient materials production (higher yields) and the eco-design of products will continue; • the boundary conditions which are mainly set by governments (e.g. regarding infrastructure development in the waste sector) will develop in a favourable way; • consumers will support cleaner production and the efficient materials use throughout the lifecycle both by developing an increased preference for eco-efficient products and services and by actively supporting product take-back systems, kerbside and other collection schemes. The above leads to the assumption that for all materials the decoupling of materials production and use from economic development will proceed over time. Differences in the speed of decoupling have been assumed depending on the maturity of the respective material (see Annex 4.2). Nevertheless in these scenarios we expect that these materialisation effects are modest. They do not assume high accelerated technology developments and adoption nor a strong policy interaction. Such scenarios will be presented in chapter 7. It must be noted that the extent of decoupling assumed in this study is based on expert estimates. This raises the question whether the trend towards dematerialisation, as anticipated in the scenario projections, is higher or lower than the development observed in the past. To give an answer in quantitative terms, the linear extrapolation of historic consumption can be compared to the anticipated consumption in the Base Case Scenario. The underlying assumptions will be explained in Chapter 4.2.4.4, 4.2.4.6 and 4.2.5. No major changes in consumption patterns and trends are assumed in the Base Case for steel, cement, plastics and aluminium. For paper & board, on the other hand, the Base Case Projection for 2030 is estimated 19% lower than the linear extrapolation of the historic development and for glass, the estimate is even 27% lower.
48
Assumptions on the development of production, consumption, import/export and waste generation and processing for each of the individual materials are described in the corresponding sections. Production is referred to here as the total of primary production (virgin materials) and secondary production (recycled material).
18,000,000
GDP (constant 1995 prices) MEURO95
16,000,000 14,000,000 12,000,000 10,000,000
Development in past Base Case Sc. High Grow th Sc. Low Grow th Sc.
8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 0 1985 1990
Figure 5-1
1995 2000
2005 2010
2015 2020
2025 2030
Scenario projections for future economic development in the European Union (see also Annex 4.1)
5.2.2 APPROACH
FOR PROJECTING WASTE GENERATION
This report studies only post-consumer waste while pre-consumer waste is excluded. The reasons for the exclusion of pre-consumer waste are that the quantities are by far smaller (only 10-20% of the amount of post-consumer waste) and that it is practically fully recycled on-site. The amount of preconsumer waste that is lost from the material cycle is hence negligible for bulk materials. Two methodologies were chosen to generate estimates of the future amounts of waste, i.e. modelling and extrapolation. In the modelling approach the waste quantities are established by combining data on material use and product consumption in the past and in the future with average service periods. This is the preferred method for materials for which historical time series on waste arising do not exist and also for those materials which are used to a considerable extent in short-lived applications, e.g. packaging. For these two reasons the modelling approach is particularly suited for plastics but also for paper and glass. On
49
the other hand, the method is difficult to apply for materials that are typically used for long-term applications because the assumptions about average service periods are more uncertain and the materials may remain "locked in" after their useful life has come to an end (e.g., sewage pipes, bitumen and concrete in roads, steel in reinforced concrete). The modelling approach is also complicated by lack of comprehensive trade data, covering not only materials and intermediates in the form of commodities but also the (more indirect) trade due to imports and exports of end products (e.g. automobiles) which contains these materials. Wherever these difficulties dominate, extrapolation of time series for waste generation in the past represents a more viable approach. Simple extrapolation can be refined to account for periods of higher or lower material use in the past. Extrapolation is less prone to overestimating waste quantities which is a weakness of the modelling approach (compare [Papameletiou, 2000; APME, 1991-2000; Patel, 1999]). In this study both methods – modelling and extrapolation – have been used depending on data availability and the characteristics of material use. In the following sections results for waste arising and waste processing are only presented for the Base Case Scenario. Key assumptions regarding future waste management are summarised in Table 5-1. Due to their high value practically all collectable metallic scrap (steel and aluminium) is recycled. Only a few percent are lost due to corrosion and contamination (e.g. with coatings, concrete or plaster). For paper, plastics and glass, material degradation and cost limitations are the main reasons why a considerable share is not recycled but landfilled or incinerated11. For these materials recycling rates are expected to be clearly higher in 2030 compared to 2000. This is partly due to the availability of waste resources, partly it is due to the availability of adequate recycling systems. While high recycling rates are technically feasible for all materials already today, it is crucial to reduce the costs further by innovations in product design, materials collection, separation, cleaning and processing. This will ensure the economic viability of high recycling rates (particularly important for plastics). The projections for future waste use are based on the assumption that there will be no net imports or exports of waste material to Western Europe in the long term. The net trade of waste in Western Europe has been very small for all bulk materials in the past. This is expected to be the case also in the future due to the intense internal market and due to waste management legislation. Table 5-1:
Assumptions for the waste management of bulk materials in the period 2000-2030 (Base Case Scenario) Steel 2000 2030 3 95%
Paper 2000 2030 60% 70%
4
Plastics 2000 2030 11% max. 68% 89% min. 32%
Glass 2000 2030 58% 64%
Aluminium 2000 2030 3 95%
Share of waste 1 recycled 3 3 Share of waste 5% 40% 30% 42% 36% 5% 2 not recycled 1 Material recovery only, without energy recovery 2 Landfilling, littering and all types of incineration (if applicable), including also material losses due to corrosion and degradation (where applicable) 3 Estimation 4 According to APME a maximum of 68% recycling is unrealistic. Furthermore APME states that feedstock recycling is a doubtful route in terms of eco-efficiency compared to energy recovery routs.
11
No incineration of glass.
50
5.2.3 DATA
SOURCES
The projections presented in this chapter are based on analyses using empirical data from various sources. These data differ substantially in quality. Since production data from Eurostat has the disadvantage of being incomplete for confidentiality reasons, production data published or provided by the materials association was generally used [APME, 1991-2001; EEA, 2001; CEPI, 2001; CEPIV Glas, 2001; VKE, 2001; Wirtschaftsvereinigung Stahl, 2000]. Some data gaps could be closed by the use of publicly accessible databases (esp. [RIVM, 2001]). Trade data for materials, intermediates and waste was taken from Eurostat [Eurostat, 2001] unless this information is published by the associations. Data for waste generation (waste arising) represents a particular problem since this information is often only available for a very limited number of years. Further difficulties are caused by the fact that historic time series for the European Union covering longer periods of time are often not consistent in geographical scope (EU-9, EU-12, EU-15).
5.2.4 RESULTS
FOR BULK MATERIALS
5.2.4.1 STEEL Steel is the only bulk material for which the production in Western Europe is assumed to decline throughout the period 2000-2030 (see Figure 5-2, Base Case and Low Growth Scenario). This is the result of the stagnation of consumption at a high level, combined with a continued trend towards net imports of finished steel products (Figure 5-3). This phenomenon, which is quite prominent in the U.S. already today, is expected as a consequence of the displacement of steel production especially to countries with low energy prices and domestic iron ore reserves. The amount of post-consumer steel scrap in Western Europe is expected to rise by 50% in the next three decades (Figure 5-5). This will enable a continued increase of steel recycling from close to 40% today to somewhat more than 50% in 203012, 13; moreover, the inputs of scrap used in basic oxygen furnaces (non-electric steel) can be increased from 200 kg/t crude steel in 1999 to 440 kg/t in 2030. These two developments will enable a substantial continued reduction of energy use over a long period of time. In the period 2015-2030, the arising of steel scrap in Western Europe are expected to be larger than the steel sector’s absorption capacity, resulting in net exports of steel scrap (Figure 5-4).
12 The U.S. - which is comparable to Western Europe concerning its large internal market - has a lead time of about one decade (see Figure 5-5). 13 These data refer to the share of recycled steel relative to total steel production in a given year. In contrast, the data in Table 4-1 refer to the share of steel waste that is recycled or lost.
51
Crude steel production 250 000
Production in kt
200 000
Base Case High Growth Low Growth Devmnt. 1985-1999 Devmnt. 1992-1999 Linear (Devmnt. 1985-1999) Linear (Devmnt. 1992-1999)
150 000
100 000
50 000
0
1985
Figure 5-2
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Scenarios for steel production in Western Europe
200 000
150 000
Production crude steel 100 000
ktonnes
Consumption rolled steel products Net exports of rolled steel products
50 000
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
0
-50 000
Figure 5-3
52
Production, consumption and trade of crude steel and rolled steel products in Western Europe (Base Case Scenario)
140 000
120 000
100 000
Consumption steel scrap for electric steel Consumption steel scrap for BOF steel
ktonnes
80 000
60 000
Net exports steel scrap 40 000
Arisings steel scrap
20 000
0 19
86 988 990 992 994 996 998 000 002 004 006 008 010 012 014 016 018 020 022 024 026 028 030 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 2 1 1 2 2 2 2 1
-20 000
Production in kt
Figure 5-4
Steel scrap in Western Europe (Base Case Scenario)
120 000
60%
100 000
50%
80 000
40%
Prod. electric steel, kt 60 000
30%
40 000
20%
20 000
10%
Figure 5-5
2030
2028
2026
2024
2022
2020
2018
2016
2014
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
0%
1980
0
Prod. Nonelectric steel, kt Share electric steel/crude steel, in % Share electric steel/crude steel USA
Primary (non-electric) and secondary (electric) steel production in Western Europe (Base Case Scenario) and the U.S.
53
5.2.4.2 ALUMINIUM Aluminium is expected to further benefit from its advantage as a low-weight construction material in transportation and for some consumer products (Figure 5-6, Figure 5-7). In the Base Case, total aluminium production increases by about 45% while the consumption of aluminium products expands by about 75%. The difference is compensated by net imports of aluminium products, with the contribution of unwrought aluminium being by far more important than that of wrought aluminium. The substantial growth of aluminium consumption is expected to cause the amount of aluminium waste to rise from 2.2 Mt in 2000 to 5.8 Mt in 2030. As in the past these quantities are expected to be processed domestically. As a consequence, the share of secondary aluminium production increases from about 45% in 2000 to nearly 80% in 203014. (Figure 5-8).
Aluminium production 10 000 9 000 8 000 7 000
Base Case High Growth Low Growth Devmnt. 1980-1999 Devmnt. 1992-1999 Linear (Devmnt. 1980-1999) Linear (Devmnt. 1992-1999)
Production in kt
6 000 5 000 4 000 3 000 2 000 1 000
19 55 19 60 19 65 19 70 19 75 19 80 19 85 19 90 19 95 20 00 20 05 20 10 20 15 20 20 20 25 20 30
0 -1 000
Figure 5-6
Scenarios for aluminium production in Western Europe
14 These data refer to the share of recycled aluminium relative to total aluminium production in a given year. In contrast, the data in Table 41 refer to the share of aluminium waste that is recycled or lost.
54
15 000
10 000
5 000 ktonnes
Consumption of Al products
2030
2028
2026
2024
2022
2020
2018
2016
2014
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
0
Net exports wrought and unwrought Al Total Al production Arisings Al scrap
-5 000
Net exports Al scrap -10 000
Figure 5-7
Production, consumption, trade and waste flows of aluminium in Western Europe (Base Case Scenario)
6 000
90%
80% 5 000 70%
Production in kt
4 000
60%
50% 3 000 40%
2 000
30%
Prod. Sec. Al, in kt
Prod. Primary Al, in kt
20% 1 000 10%
Figure 5-8
15
2029
2026
2023
2020
2017
2014
2011
2008
2005
2002
1999
1996
1993
1990
1987
1984
1981
1978
1975
0% 1972
0
Sec. Al Prod./Total Al Prod., in %
15
Primary and secondary aluminium in Western Europe (Base Case Scenario)
Mr. Nordheim (EAA) comments that the production of primary aluminium is not declining.
55
5.2.4.3 PLASTICS Plastics represent the fastest growing group of bulk materials, with growth rates outpacing GDP until 2020 and slightly lower rates in the period 2020-2030. In the next three decades, plastics are expected to gain important segments of the glass market and to substitute, to a lesser extent, steel. This will result in a total increase of plastics production between 2000 and 2030 by 80% in the Base Case, 130% in the High Growth Scenario and 35% in the Low Growth Scenario (Figure 5-9). The extent of material substitution in established markets and the progress in new fields of application (e.g., conductible polymers, fibres for hydrogen storage, polymeric PV panels) will ultimately determine the development of plastics production and consumption. In the 1990s, the net exports of primary plastics accounted for not more than 5% of total production. It has been assumed that the net trade will be negligible also in the next three decades. However, in the case of rising oil prices after the so-called depletion mid point of conventional oil has been reached (possibly around 2010-2020), oil-producing countries (especially in the Middle East) might have an increasing comparative advantage in the petrochemical sector. This could lead to a shift in Western Europe’s trade balance for plastics. Recycling is not possible for non-plastic polymers and is therefore not included in the calculations presented in Figure 5-10. The lifetimes of the individual product groups discerned in the waste model were calibrated such that the result for post-consumer waste coincides with the figure according to TN-Sofres (20 Mt in 1999, see Table 2-6 Chapter 3.3.5 [APME, 2001]).16 Total plastics waste increases to 45 Mt (+125%) in the Base Case, 55 Mt (+175%) in the High Growth Scenario and 36 Mt (+80%) in the Low Growth Scenario.
16
The lifetimes used in the model are: Packaging 1 year, films for agriculture and consumer/investment goods 5 years, containers and tanks 10 years, fibres 12 years, injection moulded components for consumer/investment goods 13 years, foamed plastics 26 years, films and other plastic products for construction (except for pipes) 39 years, plastic sheets 39 years, plastic pipes for the building sector 65 years and other plastic products 17 years. These lifetimes are 30% higher than those used in earlier calculations [Patel, 1999]. The increase was necessary to make the results match with those established by TN-Sofres (20 Mt in 1999, see Table 3.6 in Chapter 3.3.4). TN-Sofres’ waste estimates are considered to be among the most accurate that are available since they draw upon independent sources from all Western European countries which offers the possibility to conduct plausibility checks and to systhesise the information to consistent estimates
56
Plastics production 120 000 100 000
Production in kt
80 000 60 000
Base Case
40 000
High Growth 20 000
Low Growth Devmnt. 1980-1999 30
25
Linear (Devmnt. 1980-1999)
20
20
20
10
15
20
20
20
00
05 20
95
20
85
80
90
19
19
19
75
19
19
70
65
19
60
Devmnt. 1992-1999 19
-20 000
19
19
55
0
Linear (Devmnt. 1992-1999) -40 000
Figure 5-9
Scenarios for plastics production in Western Europe (including non-plastic polymers)
Consumption, Low Growth Sc. 80,000
Consumption, Base Case Sc. Consumption, High Growth Sc.
70,000
Waste, Low Growth Sc.
60,000
Waste, Base Case Sc. 50,000
Waste, High Growth Sc.
40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000
2030
2028
2026
2024
2022
2020
2018
2016
2014
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
0 1976
Plastics products - consumption and waste [kt/year]
90,000
This graph refers to polymers excluding non-plastics.
Figure 5-10 Scenarios for plastics production and waste generation in Western Europe (excluding non-plastic polymers)
57
1000 tonnes
50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 2000
Incineration Feedstock recy. Mechanical recy. Landfilling
2015
2030
Figure 5-11 Waste management of post-consumer plastics (Base Case Scenario, excluding non-plastic polymers)
5.2.4.4 PAPER
AND BOARD
Paper and board comprise the material group that – together with plastics – are expected to have the highest growth rates. In the first decade of the 21st century, physical growth rates will partly equal, partly exceed the GDP growth rate, while a somewhat slower growth is anticipated for the period 2010-2030 (Base Case Scenario). In total, this results in an increase of production and consumption by about 50% between 2000 and 2030 (Base Case, Figure 5-12). As for most other materials, the net trade of paper/board is small, with some net exports in the last few years (up to 9%; Figure 5-13). Paper/board waste is currently equivalent to 75%-80% of the consumption, which is expected to increase from about 60 Mt to 94 Mt (+60%). The share of paper waste that is recycled, currently standing at about 60%, is anticipated to increase to 70% by 2030 (Figure 5-14); as a consequence, the production share of recycled paper will increase from about 45% nowadays to 55% in 2030 (Figure 5-15). These developments are equivalent to an increase in paper recycling by 80% in the period 2000-2030.
58
Paper production 160 000 140 000
Production in kt
120 000 100 000 80 000
Base Case
60 000
High Growth Low Growth
40 000
Devmnt. 1983-1999 20 000 0 1983
Linear (Devmnt. 1983-1999)
1988
1993
1998
2003
2008
2013
2018
2023
2028
Figure 5-12 Scenarios for paper and board production in Western Europe
140 000
120 000
100 000
ktonnes
80 000
60 000
40 000
20 000
0
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Production paper Consumption paper Net exports paper Arisings paper waste Paper waste recycled
-20 000
Figure 5-13 Production, consumption, trade, waste arising and recycling of paper in Western Europe (Base Case Scenario)
59
100 000
80 000
ktonnes
60 000
Paper waste collected Paper waste recycled Net exports paper waste Arisings paper waste
40 000
20 000
2030
2028
2026
2024
2022
2020
2018
2016
2014
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
0
-20 000
Figure 5-14 Total, collected and recycled paper waste in Western Europe (Base Case Scenario)
120%
100%
80%
60%
Waste recycled/Total waste
40%
Paper consumption / paper production
20%
Production share recycled paper
2030
2028
2026
2024
2022
2020
2018
2016
2014
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
0%
Figure 5-15 Indicators of paper consumption and paper recycling in Western Europe (Base Case Scenario)
60
5.2.4.5 CEMENT The main features in the expected developments for the cement industry are the fact that production and consumption stagnate at a high level and that net foreign trade is negligible (Figure 5-16, Figure 5-17). The latter characteristic is common to several bulk materials (see below). Data on construction and demolition waste containing cement (mainly concrete) and on the quantities of waste used are not available from the cement association [pers. comm. Cembureau, 2001]. Cement production 250 000
Production in kt
200 000
150 000
100 000
Base Case 50 000
High Growth Low Growth
0
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Figure 5-16 Scenarios for cement production in Western Europe
250 000
200 000
ktonnes
150 000
100 000
Production cement Consumption cement Net exports
50 000
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
0
-50 000
Figure 5-17 Production, consumption and net exports of cement in Western Europe (Base Case Scenario)
61
5.2.4.6 GLASS Glass production is anticipated to grow at a respectable rate until 2010 but to level off (in the High Growth Scenario) or even to decline slightly thereafter (Base Case and Low Growth Scenarios; Figure 5-18). The development in the second and third decade of the 21st century will probably be caused by the accelerated replacement of glass by plastics in the following two sectors (Figure 5-19): • in the packaging sector where container glass is substituted by PET and other polymers • in the automotive sector where polymers such as polycarbonate can be expected to replace flat glass. The total production of flat glass nevertheless remains constant because the decrease in the automotive sector (25% of the flat glass market) is compensated by the increased use in construction (75% of the flat glass market). The main drivers for the rising glass use in construction are the continued trend towards buildings with more natural light and higher insulation standards for old buildings. The production and consumption of glass are practically identical, reflecting the fact that the net exports of glass from and to Western Europe are negligible (Figure 5-20). Glass waste is anticipated to increase from 20 Mt in 2000 to nearly 25 Mt in 2030 (+25%). In the same period the production of recycled glass is expected to increase from nearly 12 Mt to 15.5 Mt (+30%). At the same time, the share of waste glass that is recycled will probably only increase by a few percent (Figure 5-21).
Glass production 60 000
50 000
Production in kt
40 000
30 000
Base Case 20 000
High Growth Low Growth
10 000
Devmnt. 1980-1999 Devmnt. 1991-1999
0 19 55 19 60 19 65 19 70 19 75 19 80 19 85 19 90 19 95 20 00 20 05 20 10 20 15 20 20 20 25 20 30
Linear (Devmnt. 1991-1999) Linear (Devmnt. 1980-1999)
-10 000
Figure 5-18
62
Scenarios for glass production in Western Europe
40 000
35 000
30 000
ktonnes
25 000
20 000
15 000
Other glass
10 000
Container glass Flat Glass
5 000
2029
2027
2025
2023
2021
2019
2017
2015
2013
2011
2009
2007
2005
2003
2001
1999
1997
1995
1993
1991
1989
1987
1985
0
Figure 5-19 Production of glass by types of products in Western Europe (Base Case Scenario)
40 000
35 000
30 000
ktonnes
25 000
20 000
15 000
Production glass
10 000
Consumption glass Net exports glass
5 000
Arisings glass waste 2029
2027
2025
2023
2021
2019
2017
2015
2013
2011
2009
2007
2005
2003
2001
1999
1997
1995
1993
1991
1989
1987
1985
0
Glass waste recycled
-5 000
Figure 5-20 Production, consumption, trade, waste arising and recycling of glass in Western Europe (Base Case Scenario)
63
70%
30 000
60%
25 000
50% 20 000
ktonnes
40%
15 000 30%
10 000 20%
5 000
10%
Glass waste recycled, in kt Arisings glass waste, in kt Waste recycled / Total waste, in % Production share recycled glass, in %
2030
2028
2026
2024
2022
2020
2018
2016
2014
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
0% 1986
0
Figure 5-21: Total and recycled glass waste in Western Europe (Base Case Scenario)
5.2.4.7 OTHER
BULK MATERIALS
For the other bulk materials only the frozen Matter scenario was available (for the definition of this scenario see Section 5.3). The consumption forecasts for these materials are given in Table 4-7, at the end of this chapter.
5.3 FROZEN MATTER 5.3.1 APPROACH
PROJECTIONS
FOR PROJECTING MATERIAL CONSUMPTION
The frozen Matter scenario has been developed to demonstrate the effects of different assumptions on material substitution, material recycling and efficient product design on total material consumption and production. The scenario is constructed in such a way that the type and the amount of material used for a certain application (e.g. a soda bottle) is ‘frozen’ at its current level. This means that the amount of the various materials used in the whole EU economy is only determined by the expected growth in the various applications. The current amounts of materials used in the various application areas are described in Chapter 2. An overview of the expected growth rates per application area, derived from the Matter project, and growth factors per application area are shown in Table 5-2 . The Matter project was carried out by ECN, IVEM Groningen University, Utrecht University, and the Free University of Amsterdam in commission of the Dutch National Research Programme on Global Air Pollution and Climate Change. The two main questions of the Matter project were: how can the
64
potentials for energy and material savings of different strategies for materials be defined, and to what extent can changes in material flows contribute to the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. The result is an integrated model to calculate the effects on GHG emissions from material use from key groups of materials and product groups, associated with production, consumption and waste management in the next 50 years [Gielen en van Dril, 1997; Gielen, 1997a; Gielen, 1997b]. In addition, a study underlying the Matter studies was used, describing how much of the different materials are currently used in each of the application areas [van Duin, 1997]. Table 5-2 shows that especially large growth areas can be found in passenger cars, residential buildings, and certain types of packaging. Buildings, passenger cars and consumer durables as the most important application areas. It must be noted that certain subdivisions of the application areas listed below may show larger growth rates than are listed for the application area as a whole (e.g. certain types of electric appliances or electronic devices may grow faster than the consumer durables as a whole, see also the case studies in Annex 7). The frozen Matter scenario does not forecast import and export flows. In order to be able to compare the results of the frozen Matter scenario to those of the Base Case, the frozen Matter scenarios has adopted the same assumptions on import and export as the Base Case scenarios. The corrections have been applied as described in Section 2.2.
Table 5-2: Growth in application areas (1990 = 100) (source: Kram et al.: The Matter Project, 2001).
Main application area Transportation
Building and Construction 17
Packaging
Goods
Sub application area Passenger cars Other transportation e.g. trucks. Residential buildings Other buildings Roads Other infrastructure Very dependent on application Low end: -beverage cans/bottles -carrier bags High end: industrial packaging , e.g. -industrial bags -grouping/transport films Machinery and other production equipment Furniture and interior decoration Consumer durables Consumer non-durables
Activity level 2020 144 138 145 136 119 121
Activity level 2050 193 170 188 151 132 143
117 115
131 130
157 175 110
213 250 125
120 125 125
150 150 150
17 The grow in cement production arrived from these figures is too high according to Cembureau. They agree with the grow in Base Case scenario.
65
5.3.2 RESULTS
FOR BULK MATERIALS
The application area growth rates are applied to the current material consumption per application area, resulting in projections of future material consumption per application area according to the ‘frozen’ scenario. Summing up the projected material consumption per application area results in the total consumption for each of the materials. The annual growth rates resulting from this exercise are given in Table 5-3. The results in absolute terms for the frozen Matter scenario are shown in Annex 4.3 and in Table 5-7 at the end of this chapter. Table 5-3: Annual growth rates per material according to the frozen Matter scenario Material Steel Aluminium Copper PE PP PS PVC PET Other Thermoplastics Synthetic rubber Paper and paperboard Sawnwood and Plywood Wood board Particle board Fibreboard Cement Glass Ceramics
5.4 OTHER
Annual growth rates (%/yr) 2000-2005 2005-2015 2015-2030 0.6% 0.7% 0.4% 0.6% 0.6% 0.4% 0.7% 0.7% 0.5% 1.0% 1.0% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.6% 0.8% 0.8% 0.6% 0.8% 0.8% 0.6% 0.9% 0.9% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.9% 0.9% 0.7% 1.0% 1.0% 0.7% 0.9% 0.8% 1.0% 1.0% 1.2%
0.9% 0.8% 1.0% 1.0% 1.2%
0.7% 0.7% 0.5% 0.7% 0.7%
SCENARIO’S
The base case, low growth and high growth scenarios as well as the frozen Matter scenario are compared to other scenarios available from the literature and expert judgement. One important source is a UN study, in which three different types of scenarios are developed, varying in the degree to which energy and material efficiency are included [Worrell et al, 1997]. Furthermore, projections made by experts on material production growth are included in this paragraph. Some results of studies executed by ECN [Gielen, 1997 a; Gielen, 1997b; Gielen en van Dril, 1997] are used as a check and can be found in the graphs of Annex 4.3.
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Worrell et al, 1997 (based on Levine et al, 1995): The study was carried out in commission of the United Nations Committee on New and Renewable Sources of Energy and Materials, and the main focus was determination of potentials for energy and material efficiency improvement. Within the project, three scenarios were constructed: Business as Usual (BaU), State-of-the-Art (SA) and Ecologically Driven (ED). The business as usual scenario assumes the continued use of current technologies and continuing energy and material efficiency improvement caused by mainly stock turn over and structural change. For industrial sectors an annual growth in total energy demand of 1.4% is assumed. The state-of-the-art scenario assumes the replacement of existing stock with the current and most efficient technologies available. A more rapid uptake of product development strategies is assumed, leading to a reduced consumption of most materials. Total energy demand will drop by 16% compared to BaU scenario. The Ecologically Driven scenario assumes that technologies that are currently not yet commercial are adopted. Industrial energy consumption in 2020 is unchanged from the 1990 levels. In the Ecologically Driven scenario the implementation of a large number of measures is assumed, including product design, good housekeeping and increased re-use of products. In this scenario the demand for materials is reduced to levels that are technically feasible. No changes in market shares and import/export positions have been foreseen. The annual growth rates in material production/consumption in the different scenarios are shown in Table 5-4. Population grows with 0.7% per year up to 2020 (Levine et al, 1995; UN, 1994). Table 5-4: Annual growth in production and consumption for industrialised countries for various materials according to various scenario’s [Worrell et al, 1997, page 51]
Sector Iron and Steel Chemicals (ethylene) Pulp and paper Cement
BaU (%/year) 0.7 3.0
State of the art (%/year) 0.4 2.5
EcoDriven (%/year) 0.0 1.5
1.5 1.0
1.0 0.0
0.0 0.0
Industrial experts Experts consulted were from the chemical sector (rubbers and plastic, CEFIC), the ceramics industry (Cerame-Unie), the glass industry (CPIV), the pulp and paper industry (CEPI), the aluminium industry (EAA) and the iron and steel industry (EISA, IISI). Growth figures assuming business as usual were defined up to the year 2010. Chemical Sector (CEFIC) GDP growth in the EU during the 90ies amounted to 2.1%/year. The growth of the chemical industry was about 1% higher than GDP growth: 3.1%/year. At the global level, growth rates in the production of chemicals are similar to the GDP growth rate The EU is a net exporter of chemical products. For the period 2000-2010 a growth of chemicals production of 2.1-2.5%/year is forecast. The slowdown in growth is a result of increasing competition, increasing energy prices, globalisation of the world economy and delocalisation of new investments to developing countries.
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Table 5-5 Growth rates identified by industry experts for the chemical industry
Basic chemicals (including fertilisers) Petrochemicals Inorganics Low energy chemicals Pharmaceutical Other
1990-2000 2000-2010 1990-2000 2000-2010 1990-2000 2000-2010 1990-2000 2000-2010 1990-2000 2000-2010 1990-2000 2000-2010
+3%/year +2.0 to +2.2%/year 3.8 to 4.0 %/year 3.1%/year 0.3%/year -0.05 to +0.05%/year +1.7%/year +2.0%/year +5.0%/year 4.to 4.5%/year 1.6%/year 2.0%/year
The category of basic chemicals is responsible for 80% of the energy consumption of the chemical sector as a whole.
Building materials - Cement (Cembureau) Cement production has remained rather stable since 1970. This is caused by a decline in production in mature counties (e.g. France and Germany) and an increase in the Southern countries (Spain, Portugal). The prognosis at the EU level is a stagnation of the production at present levels. Regarding the energy required for cement production, the following comments were made: - Oil consumption is declining - The contribution of waste as a fuel (zero cost fuel) can reach 25% but its use is not yet common in southern countries - The electricity consumption will remain stable because no alternatives are available.
Pulp and paper sector (CEPI) The production has increased with 35% between 1990 and 1999, while the energy consumption increased with only 19% over the same period. The production is expected to grow by 2.5 to 3%/year up to 2010. After 2010, projections are difficult to make due to uncertainties in the development of information technology. Regarding the energy consumption in paper production the following comments were made: - Recycling accounts for 56% of the total production - The use of integrated mill units increases - The competitiveness with developing countries is a concern to paper manufacturers
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Aluminium and other non-ferrous metals (EAA) Primary aluminium production declined between 1990-2000 due to the collapse of the former USSR. Historically, production has grown at rates slightly lower than GDP. Secondary aluminium production will grow faster than primary aluminium production, especially because of the importance in car industry.
5.5 COMPARING
PROJECTIONS
The following tables compare the growth rates for material production and consumption according to the various scenarios described in the previous section. The development of production and consumption over time in absolute terms for the alternative scenarios are found in Annex 4.3. The final selection of data, used to calculate the environmental impacts of future material production and consumption, is presented in Table 5-8 at the end of this chapter. Table 5-6
Comparison of material production growth rates (%/yr) in this study with Worrell and Levine (1997) and industry experts (Shared analysis, 2001). Not that the state-of-the-art and Ecologically Driven scenarios actually are intervention scenario’s.
Material
Steel Aluminium Plastics Paper & board Cement Glass
This study 2000-2030 Low Base High Growth Case Growth -0.9% -0.2% 0.4% 1.0% 1.2% 2.4% 1.3% 2.3% 3.3% 0.8% 1.7% 2.4% -0.7% 0.6%
0% 1.0%
0.6% 1.9%
Source Worrell and Levine, 1997 2000-2020 Business State of Ecologically as Usual the Art Driven 0.7% 0.4% 0% n.a. n.a. n.a. 3.0% 2.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.0% 0% 1.0% n.a.
0% n.a.
0% n.a.
Industry Experts 2000-2010
n.a. 2.0% 3.0% 3.0% 0% 2.0%
Except for steel production, our projections coincide well with those of Worrell and Levine [1997]. The forecasts made by the industry experts generally lie between our "Base Case" and "High Growth" scenarios (Table 5-6). As can be expected, the growth rates in the frozen Matter scenario are generally higher than in the other projections, since the other scenario include a certain degree of material efficiency improvement. This is different for plastics and aluminium, for which growth rates are lower in the frozen Matter scenario than in the other scenarios. This is caused by the substitution of other materials by plastics and aluminium foreseen in the other scenarios, which is excluded in the frozen Matter scenario. On the basis of the comparison it seems reasonable to use the figures from the Base Case from our projections and the frozen Matter scenario as the range of most likely developments in material production and consumption. For the materials for which only frozen Matter projections are available no range is used, but only the frozen Matter figure. Table 5-7 presents the range of absolute production and consumption figures used as the range of most likely developments.
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70
Zinc
15 665
3 644 81 305
8 680
15 000
3 500 77 933
8 426
2 600
2 871
2 618 112 656 191 576 85 637 28 306 24 281 6 940
2 185 75 661
2 161 72 068
2 523 109 100 182 172 80 750 26 906 23 000 6 600
9 777 7 733 1 892 4 284 1 475 2 885 2 611
2005
9 300 7 466 1 815 4 113 1 412 2 800 2 550
2000
3 499
2 820 120 279 211 959 96 323 31 331 27 069 7 677
9 224
3 952 88 504
17 094
2 236 83 433
10 806 8 304 2 058 4 649 1 610 3 067 2 741
2015
Forecast frozen Matter
4 710
1
3 017 127 550 229 922 107 573 34 784 29 704 8 395
9 832
4 414 97 750
18 983
2 329 92 064
12 036 9 116 2 267 5 069 1 784 3 318 2 904
2030
145 107 180 873 30 947
28 673
8 923
92 909
38 937
2005
141 910 180 873
7 848
76 926
2000
35 495
156 000 180 873
11 073
108 509
2015
Forecast Base case
. Data for 2000 from (Zinc guide, 2001). Assumed growth figure 2%/yr
1
Copper Steel Cement Fired Clay Glass Gypsum Lime
PE PP PS PVC PET Other TP Thermosets Total plastics Syn rubber Sawnwood and Plywood Particle board Fibreboard Paper and paperboard Aluminium
Material
Consumption
34 413
151 900 180 873
13 773
120 509
62 329
2030
2000
2005
2015
Forecast frozen Matter 2030
28 673
152 156 180 873
4 529
83 909
42 720
2000
Production
30 947
151 438 180 873
4 854
92 909
48 257
2005
35 495
150 000 180 873
5 504
108 509
60 559
2015
Forecast Base case
Table 5-7 Likely range of future material consumption and production (ktonne), derived from the Base Case scenario and the frozen Matter scenario.
34 413
135 000 180 873
6 704
120 509
77 240
2030
5.6 DISCUSSION Expert estimates have been made to account for the expected decoupling between materials consumption and economic growth. This effect of decoupling can be visualised as the difference between the linear extrapolation of historic production and the anticipated production volume in the Base Case projections. For steel and cement, the Base Case projection practically coincides with the linear projection of the historic development18. For plastics and aluminium, being a material group with a high growth potential, the Base Case projection is somewhat higher than the linear extrapolation of the historic development of production between 1980 and 1999. If, however, a shorter reference period is chosen (from 1992 to 1999) then the Base Case projection is lower than the linear projection of production (see Chapter 4.2.4.2 and 4.2.4.3). This means that, for plastics and aluminium as well as for steel and cement, no major changes in consumption patterns are expected for the next three decades. In other words, decoupling of materials production and use from economic growth develops more or less according to the historic trend. For glass and paper/board, on the other hand, the Base Case projection by 2030 is 27% respectively 19% lower than the linear extrapolation. In the case of glass, this is the result of expected major substitution of glass by plastics (see explanation in Chapter 4.2.4.6). For paper/board, it is expected that particularly the more efficient end-use, saturation effects of paper consumption related to information and communication, sustained – and wherever possible – increased recycling rates and possibly higher wood prices will dampen the increase of production. For these material groups (glass and paper/board), the High Growth scenario projections are closest to the linear extrapolation of the historic development. The projections for materials production prepared in this report have been compared to at least two other sources. The first source is a report by Worrell and Levine [1997] in commission of the UN, covering the period until 2020. The second source is comprised of experts from materials associations, who expressed their expectations about material production developments until the year 2010 at a workshop organised by the European Commission on new baselines for European modelling exercises (Shared analysis, 2001). Except for steel production, our projections coincide well with those of Worrell and Levine [1997]. The forecasts made by the industry experts generally lie between our "Base Case" and "High Growth" scenarios (Table 5-6). The growth rates in the frozen Matter scenario are generally higher than in the other projections, since the other scenario include a certain degree of (business as usual) material efficiency improvement. This is different for plastics and aluminium, for which growth rates are lower in the frozen Matter scenario than in the other scenarios. This is caused by the substitution of other materials by plastics and aluminium foreseen in the other scenarios, which is excluded in the frozen Matter scenario. The figures from the Base Case from our projections and the frozen Matter scenario are used as the range of most likely developments in material production and consumption.
18 For steel, the comparison is based on consumption data, while it is based on production data for all the other materials. This is done to account for the assumed high net imports of steel. For all the other materials, the net imports have been assumed to be zero until 2030 and hence, production and consumption figures are identical. For cement, the conclusion depends on whether one bases the extrapolation on the period 1970-2000 only or whether one includes also earlier years (see Figure 4-16). The first approach has been adopted here, which is based on the notion that most of the infrastructure in Western Europe had been built by 1970 and that the high growth of earlier years will therefore not reappear in future.
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5.7 CONCLUSIONS Table 5-8 summarises production and recycling for all the bulk materials covered in the preceding sections of this chapter. In the Base Case Scenario, total production of all bulk materials combined increases by 13% between 2000 and 2030, with three quarters of the growth taking place in the period 2000-2015. In the High Growth Scenario, total production rises by 36% between 2000 and 2030, two thirds of which are expected during the period 2000-2015. In the Low Growth Scenario, total material production decreases slightly (by 3% in each of the two periods). The share of recycling increases from 23% in 2000 to 29% in 2015 and 34% in 2030 (results for Base Case Scenario, see Table 5-8). Total primary production of materials stabilises at a level of 370-380 Mt in the Base Case Scenario, i.e. it remains practically unchanged compared to the year 2000 (379 Mt, Table 5-8). This is mainly caused by the following three assumptions that have been described earlier: Firstly, a general trend towards levelling off of materials production and consumption especially due to the more efficient end-use of materials; secondly, increasing quantities of net imports of finished steel products; and thirdly, the complete use of postconsumer waste within Western Europe (i.e., no net exports of post-consumer waste). Table 5-8
Summary of production and recycling of bulk materials for the Base Case 2000
Quantities in Mt 2015 2030
Base Case Total Production1) High Growth Low Growth
493 495 486
541 608 471
555 670 456
Recycling2)
Base Case High Growth Low Growth
114 n/a n/a
159 n/a n/a
188 n/a n/a
Primary production3)
Base Case High Growth Low Growth
379 n/a n/a
382 n/a n/a
366 n/a n/a
1)
All bulk materials (cement, steel, paper, plastics, glass, aluminium)
2)
All bulk materials witout cement, i.e. steel, paper, plastics, glass, aluminium
3)
Primary production equals total production minus recycling.
In the frozen Matter scenario recycling rates and import/export streams remain unchanged compared to 2000. Total material production then grows from 646 Mt in 2000 to 812 Mt in 2030. It must be noted that the selection for the Matter scenario includes more materials (e.g. the split of plastics into different important polymers).
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7(&+12/2*, (6)250$7 (5, $/352'8&7, 21
6.1 INTRODUCTION Technologies for the ten most important materials in terms of production quantities and related environmental impact, as identified in Chapter 3, are discussed in this section. These materials are steel, cast iron, aluminium, copper, zinc, plastics, cement, ceramics, glass and paper & board. For each of the materials, elaborate descriptions are provided of trends that affect the way the material is produced and processed and the amount of waste that is generated or the way waste is handled. Many drivers for the implementation of clean technologies are not specific for one material but work on several materials. For instance, the market pull for lightweight auto bodies works on steel, aluminium and plastics. A number of drivers can be identified that apply to almost all selected materials: • Competition with materials produced in non-EU countries at lower production costs. This competition forced EU material producers to look for options to reduce the production costs, e.g. by improving the process efficiency, or to look for new markets for their products. • Competition with other materials in traditional markets. Technological developments made it possible for new materials to penetrate markets that used to be restricted to other, traditional materials. An example is aluminium for car bodies instead of steel. Steel makers responded by developing light-weight high-strength steels. • Downstream co-operation. Material producers work jointly with material consumers to improve material and product quality and minimise waste production. • Environmental legislation at national and EU-level drives the development and implementation of both end-of-pipe and clean process integrated technologies. • Recycling and re-use. The decline of landfill capacity, depletion of natural resources such as wood and the ability to reduce production costs prompted material producers to increase the utilisation rate of recycled materials. This led to rapid development of processes that make use of these materials.
6.2 KEY
TECHNOLOGIES
The main drivers for the implementation of clean technologies for individual materials are described in Annex 5. Also the description of trends in material production, material processing, waste generation and waste processing for individual materials are elaborately described in Annex 5. Based on the descriptions per material in Annex 5 and the input from industrial experts, an overview is made of technologies that may affect the environmental impact of the material cycle covered in this study, by changes in production technologies, by changes in recycling and waste management technologies or by changes in end products. This overview, shown in Table 6-1, consists only of technologies that are in the R&D phase (either applied research or experimental development), new, emerging or commercially available but have not been applied
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so far on a larger scale. Technologies that are already applied on a larger scale have not been included, because no need for further technological R&D is expected. In this table we have added a column specifying the environmental effect that is reduced by the technology. It is meant as a background to the so called “bullet tables” to be found in this chapter as well. The following abbreviations are used in the table. C SS WS R CC O A Eco L M FF
Carcinogenics Summer smog Winter smog Radiation Climate change Ozone depletion Acidification Ecotoxicity Land use Mineral depletion Fossil fuel depletion
The following clustering of environmental impacts is made, in cases where the technology reduces more than one impact: All All environmental impacts E Mainly Energy related impacts, these are: Winter smog, Radiation, Climate change, Acidification and fossil fuel depletion. More in general, technologies for optimised production processes (like power speed control, efficient motor drives, efficient pumps, heat recovery), good housekeeping and energytechnologies like heat pumps and CHP provide environmental benefits on the energy related impacts, independent of the type of material. Furthermore, deNox-installation, desulfurisation techniques and carbon filters (wet of dry) are available and relevant for production processes for steel, paper, plastics, cement and aluminium. They have effect on the impacts acidification, carcinogenics, summersmog and wintersmog.
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Table 6-1: Key technologies for reduction of environmental impact , some of which are in the R&D phase, some can be applied and/or are commercially available (Source: BREF’s, experts)
Plastics
Technology
Reduction of environmental impact Material technologies Integration of gas turbines into steam crackers E Integration of absorption-based refrigeration units into steam E+C crackers Replacement of mercury chlorine process for membrane E +Eco process Gas phase reactors in polyolefin production E R&D phase Optimised cathode technology for chlorine production (for E PVC) R&D phase Optimisation of electrolysis cells for chlorine production E Shift from heavy fuel oil feedstocks to natural gas for E ammonia production (for acryl polymers, polyamide, amino resins etc.) Shift from heavy fuel oil feedstocks to natural gas for E methanol production (for acryl polymers, polyesters, polyurethanes and various others) Advanced reforming processes for syngas production (shift E from primary to secondary reformer) Further optimisation of by-product use in chemical sites (e.g. FF methanol production from off-gases of acetylene production; acetylene by extraction from steam cracker output instead of other processes, e.g. electric arc furnace) Expansion turbine for natural gas E R&D phase Longer-term shift towards innovative olefin production All processes (e.g., Methanol-to-Olefin process, dehydrogenation of ethanol) R&D phase Energy efficient product separation (e.g. 6 or more All compression stages for raw gas output of steam crackers; separation plates; molecular sieves for separation of aromatics) Process integration of absorption cooling (e.g. in steam E crackers) Rigorous application of pinch technology for heat integration E R&D phase Process substitution for polymerisation (e.g. shift from E suspension polymerisation to gas phase polymerisation for HDPE) R&D phase Increased use of continuous instead of batch processes (e.g. E for many medium volume intermediates and for chemical fibres) R&D phase Increased use of bio-based feedstocks (oils, fermentation E substrates etc.) Recycling, re-use and Back-to-Polymer processes E energy recovery Back-to-Feedstock: use of plastic waste in blast furnaces E Back-to-Feedstock: gasification and subsequent methanol E production Back-to-Feedstock: pyrolysis E Back-to-Feedstock: hydrogenation resulting in syncrude E
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Back-to-Monomer: glycolysis Back-to-Monomer: hydrolysis Back-to-Monomer: pyrolysis Waste-to-energy plants Use of plastics in cement kilns R&D phase Innovative separation and logistics systems (automation of identification, separation, cleaning and pre-processing) R&D phase Further minimisation of process waste and pre-consumer recycling by improved raw material and process control End products Further exploitation of the potentials of downgauging in combination with design for recycling Catalysis for optimising existing polymers Catalysis for new polymers with tailored properties Inorganic nanoparticles to improve performance, e.g. durability Ecodesign to ensure fast and easy disassembly Paper and board Material technologies Material gasification for fuels Advanced kraft pulping Energy-efficient TMP processes Improved pressing and drying concepts Minimum effluent paper mills R&D phase Improved milling/grinding processes R&D phase Continuous cooking processes R&D phase Improved mechanical dehumidification of paper output (increased pressure and/or more press roles, e.g. condensing belt drying, impulse drying, steam impingement drying) Optimised paper humidity management R&D phase Drying with microwaves instead of steam Optimised steam distribution R&D phase Heat transformers for waste heat use Reduction of water use for bleaching Recycling, re-use and Waste water treatment and management energy recovery Sludge and residue handling Energy-efficient de-inking Homogeneous flow collection Energy recovery at end of lifetime R&D phase Innovative separation and logistics systems (automation of identification, separation, cleaning and pre-processing) R&D phase More recyclability and recycling of high-value types of paper End products Redesign of packaging to minimise board use Digital printing Iron and Steel Material technologies Smelt reduction technologies, notably CCF Flame control in sinter plants Direct reduction for scrap substitute production New coking processes (e.g. Jumbo coking reactor) Value enhancement of coke oven by-products Natural gas injection in blast furnace Strip casting PCDD/F removal in steel production (esp. sinter production)
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E E E E + Eco E All All All All All All All E C + Eco E E E+C E E E
E E E E Eco E + C + Eco E+C E E E E+L E, L All All E+C C + Eco E+C E+C E E E C, Eco
Spray casting Low oil mill scale recycling to sinter plants Expansion turbine for natural gas Top gas pressure recovery unit for blast furnaces Full recovery of converter gas from BOF plants (operation with or without oxygen) Optimised oxygen use in EAF plants Top layer slutering to reduce HC emissions Energy efficient oxygen production (optimised cryogenic separation; longer term option of membrane technology) R&D phase Optimised selection and blending of raw materials fed to sinter processes and blast furnaces R&D phase Near Net-shape casting combined with direct rolling (no reheating) R&D phase Slag heat recovery R&D phase Regenerative burners for annealing and continuous annealing Recycling, re-use and Chemical dezincing processes energy recovery Improving magnetic separation processes R&D phase Innovative separation and logistics systems (automation of identification, separation, cleaning and pre-processing) R&D phase Maximisation of scrap input in blast furnaces R&D phase Emission control for scrap preheat End products Advanced forming techniques for auto bodies (e.g. tailor welded banks, hydroforming) Forging parts and different steel components Techniques for making steel based composite components High-strength super-light pre-fab construction elements Light-weight, stylish and recyclable packaging, I.g. cans Tailor-making steel for specific purposes Aluminium Material technologies Non-consumable anodes and wettable cathodes Emission reduction technologies for CF4 and C2F6 gases R&D phase Optimised selection and blending of raw materials R&D phase Improved design of anodes and melt pot R&D phase Optimised process & control (sensors for melt composition and on-line control; minimisation of inefficiencies related to start-ups, shut downs and metal removal) Recycling, re-use and Rapid Solidifying Process energy recovery Better collection schemes for aluminium cans Improved extrusion process R&D phase Innovative separation and logistics systems (automation of identification, separation, cleaning and pre-processing) End products Improved fastening technologies Pre-treatment methods for better coating Copper Material technologies Noranda continuous converter ISA smelt for reduction/oxidation Hydro-metallurgical processes R&D phase Iron and sulphide oxidising bacteria for leaching
E+M SS + WS + Eco E E E E SS, WS, Eco E All E E E C + Eco E E, M E, M E, Eco All All All All All All E CC E, M E E
E E E E, M All All Eco E E +Eco E+M
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Zinc Material technologies Chemical refining
Recycling, re-use and energy recovery Cement19
Electro-winning Improved Waelz process
E + Eco Eco All
CC
Material technologies Techniques to reduce CO2 emissions in the production
process by the reduction of CO2/carbonate containing rawmaterials Multi-stage preheater and precalcination Clinker coolers and heat recovery End-of-pipe techniques for emission control Use waste-derived fuels Optimised selection and blending of raw materials R&D phase Improved grinding (high pressure) / mechanical processes R&D phase Pre-calcination in fluidised bed reactors Minimisation of uncontrolled air intake R&D phase Optimised combustion process in rotary kiln R&D phase Shorter rotary kilns combined with tertiary air supply Optimisation of clinker cooling Improved insulation of cement kilns Recycling, re-use and Recycling of collected dust into feed kiln
E E SS, WS, C, CC, Eco E E, M.L E E E E E E E C
energy recovery
End products
Reduce clinker content of cement by using e.g. blast furnace slags Chemical recycling of concrete High-strength cements Use geopolymers or mineral polymers
CC All All All
Glass Material technologies Multi-pass generators
Fusion cast corrugated cruciforms R&D phase Increased use of recuperative kilns and other optimised burner & heat integration technologies R&D phase Conversion to oxyfuel burners R&D phase Avoidance of electro-boost practices R&D phase Optimized gas flow in the melting pot Reduction of heat losses via kiln walls Recycling, re-use and Raising cullet percentage in raw materials
E E E E E E E All
energy recovery
R&D phase Innovative separation and logistics systems (automation of identification, separation, cleaning and pre-processing) End products Downgauging (thin-walled container glass) Batch and cullet preheating
10 years of research into geopolymers and mineral polymers have still not resulted in a large scale production.. Furhermore it should be noted that energy consumption and the emission of the production of geopolymers (also from the alkali sources) need to be included in the evaluation
19
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E, M E, M All
Ceramics Material technologies Roller kilns for sanitary ware
Low-energy sintering Low-thermal mass kiln wagons Recycling, re-use and Sustainable buildings
E E E All
energy recovery
End products
6.3 RELATIVE
Light-weight building materials Pre-fab building elements
All All
CONTRIBUTION TO THE REDUCTION OF ENVIRONMENTAL
IMPACT
In order to be able to weigh and prioritise the technologies that may be included in the R&D road map, the importance of different categories of technologies in reducing the predicted environmental impacts related to material consumption has been assessed. The technologies covered here include material production technologies and product design technologies (i.e. recycling, substitution, less material input). The potential relative contribution of categories of technologies to the reduction of environmental impacts are shown in Tables 6-2 to 6-11. They include commercially available technologies, since they have the potential to reduce material consumption and related environmental impacts if applied more widely. Shown are the effects on carcinogenics, respiratory effects due to summer smog, respiratory effects due to winter smog, radiation, climate change, ozone depletion, acidification/eutrophication, land use and fossil fuel depletion. Note that sometimes clusters of technologies are given in section 5.2, sometimes examples of new technologies so the reduction potential must be seen as an indication. The environmental impact indicator on ecotoxicity is not included because it includes many substances and many effects on a large variety of organisms. This makes it impossible to link the reductions of individual substances to the overall impact, without access to the models behind the impact calculations. In addition, the flaws related to the modelling of the heavy metals warrant further attention for this issue, at a level not possible within the scope of this study. The environmental impact indicator for minerals depletion is not included because the data in the EcoIndicator methodology for a number of rare metals are not suitable for this (see also Section 3.3) and because of insufficient data on the reduction options for non-bulk minerals. For the most important materials the contribution to the environmental impacts is shown for 2000 and for 2015. This contribution is expressed as a percentage of the total environmental impact caused by the list of 20 materials, selected in Chapter 3. On average, the materials shown in the tables cover about 80-90% of the total impact of the list of 20 materials. For 2015 the range of the environmental impacts from the frozen Matter scenario and the Base case are shown. Note that these scenarios are constructed in such a way that together they present a likely range of business as usual developments, with the specific environmental impact indicator based on the current level of technology. A distinction is made between different stages of development, based on the Frascati Manual, as used in OECD surveys of RD&D activities. Note that the Frascati manual also distinguishes “basic research” as a category of RD&D activities, defined as “experimental or theoretical work to acquire new knowledge, without any particular application or use in view”. Although such
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basic research may affect material technologies on the long term, we do not expect any substantial contribution to the reduction of environmental impacts within the time frame of this study, because of the time frame needed to reach sufficiently high penetration levels. The category of commercially available technologies is added for the purpose of this study. The following categories are distinguished: ● = Commercially available technologies ● = Technologies in the demonstration phase Technologies in an advanced stage of development, can be large scale, but are not expected to operate on a commercial basis, e.g. because of specific bottlenecks to implementation ● = Technologies in the experimental development phase Experimental development is directed at the production or improvement of materials, products or devices. Part of this stage can be the construction of a prototype or a pilot plant to obtain engineering and other data. ❍ = Technology in the phase of applied research Applied research is aimed obtaining new knowledge directed towards a practical objective. Laboratory scale experiments are a part of the applied research phase. The relative importance of the categories of technologies in mitigating the environmental impact is shown in a (semi-logarithmic) five-point scale, ranging from 0.01-0.3 % to 3.0-10 % reduction of the total environmental impact caused by production of all materials ●
= 0.01-0.3 % reduction of the total environmental impact caused by production of all materials ●● = 0.3-1.0 % reduction of the total environmental impact caused by production of all materials ●●● = 1.0-3.0 % reduction of the total environmental impact caused by production of all materials ●●●● = 3.0-10 % reduction of the total environmental impact caused by production of all materials ●●●●● = >10% reduction of the total environmental impact caused by production of all materials It must be noted that for climate change and fossil fuel depletion no end-of-pipe technologies are included in the following table (and in the scenarios). In principle, carbon dioxide removal and disposal could also be applied to large industrial installations. Currently, this technique is already used for the winning of CO2 needed for other processes. The applicability of this technology, including disposal is very dependent on the availability of potential storage sites, such as aquifers and empty gas fields. Total potential is therefore difficult to estimate, but could be substantial. With regard to application areas and cross-cutting technologies trends are difficult to forecast. Several trends can potentially have a significant impact on material consumption, such as consumer trends, ICT, etc. In which direction such trends will develop, and whether they have a net positive or a net negative impact on the environment cannot be predicted at this stage.
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Table 6-2 Carcinogenics: the relative contribution of groups of technologies to the reduction of the environmental impact (in % of total carcinogenic impact of the list of the 20 materials selected)
Material
Contribution to environmental effect 2000 2015
Steel
39%
38-40%
Paper Zinc
21% 14%
21-22% 16%
Cement Aluminium
8% 5%
6-8% 2-4%
PE
5%
5%
Copper Lead PVC Others
2% 1% 1% 4%
2%
Table 6-3
Material
1% 4%
Material & energy efficiency
Recycling
In production ●●●● ●●●●● ●●●●● ●●●
Material recycling ●●●
In application ●● ●● ●●
End-of-pipe technologies Product re-use
●●● ●●●●
●●●● ● ●
●●
●● ● ●
●●
●●●●● ●●●●● ●●●●● ●●●● ●●●● ●● ●●
●●
●
● ● ●●
● ● ● ●●
Respiratory effects due to summer smog: the relative contribution of groups of technologies to the reduction of the environmental impact (in % of total summer smog impact of the list of the 20 20 materials selected)
Contribution to environmental effect 2000 2015
PE Paper Thermosets Steel
38% 8% 8% 7%
39% 8-9% 7% 7-8%
PVC PP Synth rubber Cement
7% 6% 4%
7% 6% 4%
3%
2-3%
Others
19%
17-20%
Material & energy efficiency
Recycling
End-of-pipe technologies
In production
In application
Material recycling
●●●● ●● ●● ●●
●●●● ●●● ●● ●
●●●● ●●
●●●●● ●●●●
●●●
●●●●
●●
Product re-use
●
●●●●
●
●● ●● ●●
●● ●● ●●
●
●●● ❍❍❍ ●●
●● ●●●● ●●●●
●●●
●●● ●●
● ●●
●●
●●●●
20
According to Cembureau, wintersmog no longer is an environmental issue. RIVM (the Dutch National Institute for Public Hygiene and the Environment) does state that the number of daysa smog warning is issued has strongly decreased. Whether this also means the environmental issue itself has become mute needs to be checked
81
Table 6-4: Respiratory effects due to winter smog: the relative contribution of groups of technologies to the reduction of the environmental impact (in % of total winter smog impact of the list of the 20 materials selected)
Material
Contribution to environmental effect 2000 2015
Paper Steel Cement
23% 13% 12%
23-26% 13-15% 10-12%
Material & energy efficiency
Recycling
In production
In application
Material recycling
●●● ●●● ●●●
●●●
●●●● ●●●
End-of-pipe technologies
Product re-use ●
●●●●● ●●●●● ●●●●●
●●●● ❍❍❍❍ ●●● ●● ●● ●● ●● ●●
Aluminium PE Copper Glass Ceramics PP
12% 9% 5% 3% 3% 3%
7-12% 10% 5% 3% 3% 3%
Particle board Others
2%
2%
●
15%
9-16%
●
Table 6-5
●●
●●●●● ●●●● ●●●● ●●●● ●●●● ●●●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●●●
●● ●● ●● ●●
●●
Radiation: the relative contribution of groups of technologies to the reduction of the environmental impact (in % of total radiation impact of the list of the 20 materials selected)
Material
Contribution to environmental effect 2000 2015
Material & energy efficiency In production ●●●●
In application ●● ●● ●●● ●●●
Steel
27%
26-29%
Paper
20%
20-22%
●● ●
Aluminium
12%
6-11%
●●●
Plastics
11%
11-15%
●●●●
●●● ●●●
Cement
8%
6-8%
●●
●●●● ❍❍❍❍
Glass Others
0% 23%
0% 22-24%
82
●●● ●●● ● ●●
Recycling
Material recycling ●●●● ●● ●● ●●● ●● ●● ●●●● ●● ●● ●●● ●● ●●
Product re-use ●
●
End-ofpipe technologies
Table 6-6:
Climate change: the relative contribution of groups of technologies to the reduction of the environmental impact (in % of climate change impact of the list of the 20 materials selected)
Material
Contribution to environmental effect 2000 2015
Material & energy efficiency In production ●●●
In application ●●●● ❍❍❍❍
Material recycling
Product re-use
●●● ●● ●● ●●● ●● ●● ●●● ●● ● ●●● ●● ●● ● ● ●
●
Cement
25%
21-26%
Steel
22%
22-25%
●●●● ●
●● ●●
Plastics
13%
15-17%
●●●●
●●● ●●●
Paper
13%
13-15%
●●● ●●
●●● ●●●
Aluminium
8%
5-8%
●●
Glass
3%
3%
●●
Table 6-7
Recycling
● ●
End-ofpipe technologies
●
Ozone depletion: the relative contribution of groups of technologies to the reduction of the environmental impact (in % of total ozone depletion impact of the list of the 20 materials selected)
Material
Contribution to environmental effect 2000 2015
Material efficiency
In production ●●●●●
In application ●●●● ●●●●●
Plastics
87%
87-91%
Paper
4%
3-4%
●● ●
●● ●●
Steel
2%
2%
●●
● ●
Aluminium
2%
1-2%
●
Cement
1%
1%
●
●● ❍❍
Glass
1%
1%
●
● ●
Others
3%
Recycling
Material recycling ●●●● ●●●● ●●●● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ●
Product re-use ●●
End-ofpipe technologies ●●●●● ●●●
●
●● ●● ●●
● ● ●
●
83
Table 6-8:
Acidification/eutrophication: the relative contribution of groups of technologies to the reduction of the environmental impact (in % of total acidification/eutrophication impact of the list of the 20 materials selected)
Material
Contribution to environmental effect 2000 2015
Material efficiency
Cement
20%
16-20%
In production ●●●
Plastics
18%
18-24%
●●●●
Paper
18%
18-20%
●●●● ●●
●●● ●●●
Steel
15%
14-16%
●●● ●
● ●
Aluminium
6%
3-6%
●●
Glass
4%
4%
●●
Others
19%
17-19%
Table 6-9
In application ●●●●● ❍❍❍❍❍ ●●● ●●●
● ●
Material recycling
Product re-use
●●● ●●● ●●● ●●● ●● ● ●●● ●● ● ●● ●● ● ● ● ●
●
End-ofpipe technologies ●●●● ●● ●●●● ●● ●●●● ●●
●
●●● ●
●
●● ● ●● ●
Land use: the relative contribution of groups of technologies to the reduction of the environmental impact (in % of total land use of the list of the 20 materials selected)
Material
Contribution to environmental effect 2000 2015
Material efficiency
In production ●●● ●
In application ●●● ●●●
●●●●
●● ●●
Paper
23%
23-25%
Steel
20%
20-22%
Aluminium
8%
4-8%
●●
Plastics
7%
7-9%
●●
●● ●●
Cement
7%
5-7%
●●
●●●● ❍❍❍❍
Glass
0%
0%
●●●
●● ●●
84
Recycling
Recycling
Material recycling ●●● ●● ●● ●●● ●● ●● ●●● ●● ●● ●● ●● ●●
●● ● ●
Product re-use
●
●
End-ofpipe technologies
Table 6-10: Fossil fuel depletion: the relative contribution of groups of technologies to the reduction of the environmental impact (in % of total fossil fuel depletion of the list of the 20 materials selected). Bullets refer to column “fossil energy depletion”
Material
Plastics
Contribution to environmental effect Fossil fuel Fossil energy depletion consumption 2000 2015 2000 2015 43% 43-52% 34% 36%
Material efficiency
Paper
14%
14%
11%
11%
●●●● ●●
●●● ●●●
Steel
9%
8-9%
24%
21%
●●● ●
● ●
Aluminium
6%
3-5%
4%
4%
●●
Cement
4%
3-4%
8%
9%
●●
Glass
4%
4%
3%
3%
●●
Others
22%
16-22%
16%
16%
Recycling
In production
In application
Material recycling
Product re-use
●●●●
●●● ●●●
●●● ●●● ●●● ●●● ● ● ●● ● ● ●●● ●● ●
●
●●● ❍❍❍ ● ●
● ●
● ● ●
85
6.4 CONCLUSIONS Our analysis shows that available technologies already comprise a large potential for mitigating the environmental impacts related to material consumption. This implies that barriers are economic or organisational, rather than just technical. It turns out that process technology and recycling technologies are important options to reduce environmental effects for all environmental impact categories. Process technologies in steel, cement and paper industry give a high potential for reduction of carcinogenics, wintersmog and climate change. Process technologies in the paper industry are possible ways to reduce acidification effects (although acidification is relatively unimportant to ecosystem quality compared to ecotoxicity). Process technologies in plastics production are important for the reduction of environmental effects like: fossil fuel depletion and ozone depletion and summersmog (although the latter two being relatively unimportant to human health). Recycling technologies for plastics are important for reduction of summersmog, whereas recycling of steel and paper is important for reduction of wintersmog (more important to the human health damage category in absolute respect). Radiation is largely explained by (nuclear) energy demand, therefore energy efficiency in production and material recycling of bulk materials gives the highest potential for reduction of radiation effects. Radiation effects from the materials sector are however relatively unimportant to the damage category human health. End-of-pipe technologies have a substantial potential to reduce environmental impacts, especially for effects like carcinogenics, wintersmog and acidification. No end of pipe technologies are available for radiation, climate change, land use and fossil fuel depletion. One important area where technologies for limiting environmental impacts are missing is the recycling of cement/concrete and ceramics. Furthermore, there are no technologies available to reduce depletion of fossil fuels in case they are used as feedstock. The effect of ecotoxicity which is mainly caused by emissions of zinc, copper and other heavy metals not included in the selection is important to the damage category of ecosystem quality. Because of a lack of data to serve as a basis for calculation of potentials, no technologies (and hence reduction potential) for this category are established. Not that the environmental effects of the use of heavy metals and ways to reduce these effects needs further attention.
86
)8785((19, 5210(17$/ , 03$&72)7+( 0$7(5,$/6( &725
7.1 INTRODUCTION In this chapter, the future environmental impacts of material consumption are analysed. A trend scenario is developed for the environmental impacts based on the environmental impacts of different materials established in Chapter 3 and the material consumption and production forecasts presented in Chapter 4. Subsequently, two ‘mitigation scenarios’ are developed, with different assumptions on the implementation rates of technologies identified in Chapter 6. The results of the scenarios are presented in Section 7.3.
7.2 DEVELOPMENT
OF THE SCENARIOS
In this section, the three different environmental impact scenarios are introduced. The scenarios distinguished are: • The Trend scenario • The BAT (Best Available Technology) scenario • The Technical potential scenario The Trend scenario is based on the range in material consumption in the Frozen Matter scenario and the Base Case scenario (see Chapter 5) and the specific environmental impact scores for the list of 20 materials described in Chapter 3. The BAT scenario is derived from the Trend scenario, assuming the implementation of all BAT technologies. The definition of "Best Available Techniques" is taken from the IPPC Directive [IPPC, 1996]. Here BAT is defined as the most effective and advanced stage in the development of activities and their methods of operations21. The specific definition of “available” requires implementation under economically and technically viable conditions. The Technical potential scenario is also based on the Trend scenario, but assumes a more rapid implementation of technologies than in the BAT scenario. 21
The term "best available techniques" is defined in Article 2(11) of the IPPC Directive as "the most effective and advanced stage in the development of activities and their methods of operation which indicate the practical suitability of particular techniques for providing in principle the basis for emission limit values designed to prevent and, where that is not practicable, generally to reduce emissions and the impact on the environment as a whole." Further definitions are given for: - "techniques" includes both the technology used and the way in which the installation is designed, built, maintained, operated and decommissioned; - "available" techniques are those developed on a scale which allows implementation in the relevant industrial sector, under economically and technically viable conditions, taking into consideration the costs and advantages, whether or not the techniques are used or produced inside the Member State in question, as long as they are reasonably accessible to the operator; - "best" means most effective in achieving a high general level of protection of the environment as a whole.
87
Chapter 6 identifies (amongst others) commercially available technologies. Requiring all commercially available technologies to be implemented on a short time scale will not be consistent with the economic criteria in the BAT definition (even if individual technologies may fit the criteria). Therefore, the BAT scenario does not assume full implementation of the commercially available technologies. On the basis of average lifetimes of industrial installations, full turnover of capital stock is expected within 30 year. Therefore, in the year 2015, 50% of the commercially available technologies identified in Chapter 6 are assumed to be implemented. In 2030, the implementation rate of these technologies is assumed to have risen to 100%. As R&D progresses, currently non-commercial technologies are expected to become commercially available over the years. According to [Luiten, 2001] it takes about 7-8 years for a technology to move from one development stage to the next, e.g. from the demonstration phase to the commercialisation phase. This means that technologies that are currently in the demonstration phase will become commercially available around 2007. A 7 to 8-year capital stock turnover will then result in an implementation rate of 25% in 2015. Technologies currently in the development phase will only become commercially available in 2015 and applied research phase technologies even later. Hence implementation of these type of technologies is assumed to be 0% in 2015. In 2030, implementation rates of development phase technologies and applied research phase technologies have risen to 50% and 25% respectively (see also Table 7-1). For the Technical potential scenario, capital stock turnover is assumed to be shorter, i.e. 20 years, because of greater efforts in policy making, resulting in a faster implementation of technologies. For the same reason the timelag for technologies is assumed to 5 years, instead of 7-8. As a result, 75% of commercially available technologies are assumed to be implemented in 2015 in the Technical potential scenario. For 2030, this implementation rate has increased to 100%. Technologies currently in the demonstration phase will become commercially available in 2005, so implementation will have risen to 50% in 2015 and 100% in 2030 (see also Table 7-1). End-of-pipe technologies are different from the other categories of technologies, since they usually do not have side-benefits, such as cost savings or increased throughput. Implementation will mostly be done only in response to legislation. Therefore, implementation rates are assumed to be much lower in the BAT scenario than for the other types of technologies. We have assumed the implementation rate for end-of-pipe technologies to 25% of that of the other technologies in the BAT scenario. For the Technical potential scenario this is assumed to amount to 75% of that of the other technologies. Table 7-1 Share of technologies identified in Chapter 6 expected to implemented in the BAT scenario and the Technical potential scenario
Technologies Current status: Commercially available In the demonstration phase In the development phase In the applied research phase
88
BAT 2015 50% 25% 0% 0%
2030 100% 75% 50% 25%
Technical potential 2015 2030 75% 100% 50% 100% 0% 100% 0% 75%
7.3 RESULTS Figures 7-1 to 7-9 show the three scenarios for each of the nine different environmental impact categories. Again, Ecotoxicity is left out because of reasons of complexity. For each impact category, the development of the total environmental impact of the 20 materials is shown. In addition, the contribution of each of the individual materials is shown in 2015 and 2030 for both the BAT scenario and the Technical potential scenario (for the contribution of individual materials to the environmental impact in the Trend scenario, see Annex 6). It must be noted that the scenarios should only be used as an indicative overview of the potential effect technologies can have on the environmental impact and the impact of strengthened R&D efforts. In the Trend scenario the environmental effects in all environmental impact categories increase over time, with growing material consumption. The largest growth is observed for ozone layer depletion and fossil fuel depletion. This is caused by the strong growth in plastics production, which contributes heavily to these impact categories. It must be noted that in the Trend scenario, production volumes are multiplied with the current EcoIndicator values. The scenario therefore represents the environmental effects in case no additional environmental protection measures are implemented in the future, except for autonomous changes in energy efficiency, material efficiency and recycling. The additional environmental protection measures, as well as additional improvements in energy efficiency, material efficiency and recycling (over and above the autonomous changes) are included in the technology implementation scenarios22. In general, the majority of the reduction in environmental impacts is, with some exceptions, already obtained in the BAT scenario. It must be noted that the calculations underlying the BAT scenario assume that each plant, that reaches the end of the capital stock turnover period implements the BAT technology. The implementation rate is this case substantially above autonomous implementation rates. The additional reduction in the TECH scenario compared to the BAT scenario is in most cases relatively small. This is partly due to the fact that more commercially available technologies have been identified than technologies that are in less advanced stages of development. This is because only technologies of which information that is available in the public domain (either in publications or through expert consultations) could be included in this study. And the less advanced the technological development is, the stricter often the confidentiality requirements are. In addition, the effects of less advanced technologies on the environmental impact is also more difficult to quantify. For ozone depletion and fossil fuel depletion total environmental impact still increases in both the BAT scenario and the TECH scenario. This, again, is a result of the strong growth foreseen for plastics. For fossil fuel depletion no end-of-pipe technologies are possible. One option to reduce fossil fuel use and thereby fossil fuel depletion is the switch to renewable sources for energy and materials. Especially for plastics, the option for a renewable resource base holds strong potential to reduce the environmental impact in the category fossil fuel depletion, as well as for climate change and many other categories. The reason that climate change does show a larger reduction
22
It must be noted that the switch to foaming agents with a lower ozone depletion potential in plastics such as PUR and EPS is not included in the technology implementation scenarios. More information is necessary on the foaming agent that will be chosen to determine the reduction in impact in the ozone depletion category.
89
potential is explained by the fact that oil (being feedstock for plastics) has a lower carbon content and smaller stocks than coal (used in steel and cement production).
Carcinogenics 0.3
DALY (106)
0.2
base matter case
bat technical 0.1
0
2000
2015
2030
Figure 7-1: Scenario’s for reduction of carcinogenics
Carcinogenics 0.25
6
DALY (10 )
0.2
0.15
End of pipe technologies 0.1
Recycling Material efficiency
0.05
Absolute remaining impact 0
2000
2015
2030 BAT
Figure 7-2: Share of type of technology to reduction potential
90
2015
2030 TECH
0.25
Carcinogenics: BAT scenario
DALY (106)
0.20
0.15
0.10
0.05
0.00
Absolute impact 2000
Absolute remaining impact 2015
Absolute remaining impact 2030
Zinc Lime Gypsum Glass Fired Clay Cement Steel Copper Aluminium Paper and paperboard Fibreboard Particle board Sawnwood and Plywood Syn rubber Total plastics Thermosets Other TP PET PVC PS PP PE
Figure 7-3: Reduction of carcinogenics according to BAT scenario
0.25
Carcinogenics: TECH scenario
DALY (106)
0.20
0.15
0.10
0.05
0.00
Absolute impact 2000
Absolute remaining impact 2015
Absolute remaining impact 2030
Figure 7-4: Reduction of carcinogenics according to TECH scenario
91
Summersmog 0.003
6
DALY (10 )
0.002
base case matter
bat technical 0.001
0
2000
2015
2030
Figure 7-5: Scenario’s for reduction of summersmog
Summersmog 0.003
0.0025
DALY (106)
0.002
End of pipe technologies
0.0015
Recycling 0.001
Material efficiency
0.0005
Absolute remaining impact 0
2000
2015
2030 BAT
Figure 7-6: Share of type of technologies to reduction potential
92
2015
2030 TECH
0.0025
Summersmog: BAT scenario
DALY (106)
0.0020
0.0015
0.0010
0.0005
0.0000
Absolute impact 2000
Absolute remaining impact 2015
Absolute remaining impact 2030
Zinc Lime Gypsum Glass Fired Clay Cement Steel Copper Aluminium Paper and paperboard Fibreboard Particle board Sawnwood and Plywood Syn rubber Total plastics Thermosets Other TP PET PVC PS PP PE
Figure 7-7: Reduction of summersmog according to BAT scenario
0.0025
Summersmog: TECH scenario
DALY (106)
0.0020
0.0015
0.0010
0.0005
0.0000
Absolute impact 2000
Absolute remaining impact 2015
Absolute remaining impact 2030
Figure 7-8: Reduction of summersmog according to TECH scenario
93
Wintersmog 0.6
6
DALY (10 )
0.4
matter base case bat technical 0.2
0
2000
2015
2030
Figure 7-9: Scenario’s for reduction of wintersmog
Wintersmog 0.6
0.5
DALY (106)
0.4
End of pipe technologies
0.3
Recycling 0.2
Material efficiency
0.1
Absolute remaining impact 0
2000
2015
2030 BAT
Figure 7-10: Share of type of technologies to reduction potential
94
2015
2030 TECH
0.45
Wintersmog: BAT scenario 0.40 0.35
DALY (106)
0.30 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.00
Absolute impact 2000
Absolute remaining impact 2015
Absolute remaining impact 2030
Zinc Lime Gypsum Glass Fired Clay Cement Steel Copper Aluminium Paper and paperboard Fibreboard Particle board Sawnwood and Plywood Syn rubber Total plastics Thermosets Other TP PET PVC PS PP PE
Figure 7-11: Reduction of wintersmog according to BAT scenario
0.60
Wintersmog: TECH scenario 0.50
DALY (106)
0.40
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00
Absolute impact 2000
Absolute remaining impact 2015
Absolute remaining impact 2030
Figure 7-12: Reduction of wintersmog according to TECH scenario
95
Climate Change 0.3
6
DALY (10 )
0.2
base case bat technical 0.1
0
2000
2015
2030
Figure 7-13: Scenario’s for reduction of climate change
Climate Change 0.25
DALY (106)
0.2
0.15
End of pipe technologies Recycling
0.1
Material efficiency
0.05
Absolute remaining impact 0
2000
2015
2030 BAT
Figure 7-14: Share of type of technologies to reduction potential
96
2015
2030 TECH
0.20
Climate Change: BAT scenario
DALY (106)
0.16
0.12
0.08
0.04
0.00
Absolute impact 2000
Absolute remaining impact 2015
Absolute remaining impact 2030
Zinc Lime Gypsum Glass Fired Clay Cement Steel Copper Aluminium Paper and paperboard Fibreboard Particle board Sawnwood and Plywood Syn rubber Total plastics Thermosets Other TP PET PVC PS PP PE
Figure 7-15: Reduction of climate change according to BAT scenario
0.20
Climate Change: TECH scenario
DALY (106)
0.16
0.12
0.08
0.04
0.00
Absolute impact 2000
Absolute remaining impact 2015
Absolute remaining impact 2030
Figure 7-16: Reduction of climate change according to TECH scenario
97
Ozone layer depletion 0.005
6
DALY (10 )
0.004
0.003
base case bat technical
0.002
0.001
0
2000
2015
2030
Figure 7-17: Scenario’s for reduction of ozon layer depletion
Ozon layer depletion 0.0045 0.004 0.0035
DALY (106)
0.003 0.0025
End of pipe technologies
0.002
Recycling 0.0015
Material efficiency
0.001
Absolute remaining impact
0.0005 0
2000
2015
2030 BAT
Figure 7-18: Share of type of technologies to reduction potential
98
2015
2030 TECH
0.0035
Ozone layer depletion: BAT scenario 0.0030
DALY (106)
0.0025
0.0020
0.0015
0.0010
0.0005
0.0000
Absolute impact 2000
Absolute remaining impact 2015
Absolute remaining impact 2030
Zinc Lime Gypsum Glass Fired Clay Cement Steel Copper Aluminium Paper and paperboard Fibreboard Particle board Sawnwood and Plywood Syn rubber Total plastics Thermosets Other TP PET PVC PS PP PE
Figure 7-19: Reduction of ozone layer depletion according to BAT scenario
0.0025
Ozone layer depletion: TECH scenario
DALY (106)
0.0020
0.0015
0.0010
0.0005
0.0000
Absolute impact 2000
Absolute remaining impact 2015
Absolute remaining impact 2030
Figure 7-20: Reduction of ozone layer depletion according to TECH scenario
99
Radiation 0.0012
0.0010
6
DALY (10 )
0.0008
base case bat technical
0.0006
0.0004
0.0002
0.0000
2000
2015
2030
Figure 7-21: Scenario’s for reduction of radiation
Radiation 0.0012
0.001
DALY (106)
0.0008
End of pipe technologies Recycling
0.0006
0.0004
Material efficiency
0.0002
Absolute remaining impact 0
2000
2015
2030 BAT
Figure 7-22: Share of technologies to reduction potential
100
2015
2030 TECH
0.0008
Radiation: BAT scenario
DALY (106)
0.0006
0.0004
0.0002
0.0000
Absolute impact 2000
Absolute remaining impact 2015
Absolute remaining impact 2030
Zinc Lime Gypsum Glass Fired Clay Cement Steel Copper Aluminium Paper and paperboard Fibreboard Particle board Sawnwood and Plywood Syn rubber Total plastics Thermosets Other TP PET PVC PS PP PE
Figure 7-23: Reduction of radiation according to BAT scenario
0.0008
Radiation: TECH scenario
DALY (106)
0.0006
0.0004
0.0002
0.0000
Absolute impact 2000
Absolute remaining impact 2015
Absolute remaining impact 2030
Figure 7-24: Reduction of radiation according to TECH scenario
101
Acidification
12000
6
PDF/m2/yr (10 )
18000
base case bat technical 6000
0
2000
2015
2030
Figure 7-25: Scenario’s for reduction of acidification/eutrofication
Acidification 18000 16000
PDF/m2/yr (106)
14000 12000 10000
End of pipe technologies
8000
Recycling 6000
Material efficiency
4000
Absolute remaining impact
2000 0
2000
2015
2030 BAT
Figure 7-26: Share of type of technologies to reduction potential
102
2015
2030 TECH
14000
Acidification: BAT scenario 12000
PDF/m2/yr (106)
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
Absolute impact 2000
Absolute remaining impact 2015
Absolute remaining impact 2030
Zinc Lime Gypsum Glass Fired Clay Cement Steel Copper Aluminium Paper and paperboard Fibreboard Particle board Sawnwood and Plywood Syn rubber Total plastics Thermosets Other TP PET PVC PS PP PE
Figure 7-27: Reduction of acidification according to BAT scenario
14000
Acidification: TECH scenario 12000
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Figure 7-31: Reduction of land use according to BAT scenario
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7.4 CONCLUSIONS In this chapter, three scenarios for nine different environmental impact categories were presented: a trend scenario and two technology implementation scenarios: a BAT scenario and a Technical potential scenario. It must be noted that the scenarios should only be used as an indicative overview of the potential effect technologies can have on the environmental impact and the impact of strengthened R&D efforts. A substantial part of the impact reduction potential can already be found in the BAT scenario. The additional reduction in the Technical potential scenario compared to the BAT scenario is relatively small. This is partly due to the fact that more commercially available technologies have been identified than technologies that are in less advanced stages of development. In the Trend scenario (annex 6) the environmental effects in all environmental impact categories increase over time, with growing material consumption. The largest growth is observed for environmental impacts where plastics have a relatively large contribution, because of the high growth foreseen for plastics (e.g. fossil fuel depletion). The damage categories human health, carcinogenics, wintersmog and climate change are the most important environmental effects (see figure 3.1). Reduction of impact carcinogenics can be obtained by material and energy efficiency in steel, cement and paper industry (in the BAT scenario), but a further reduction by means of end of pipe technologies in steel and paper industry is foreseen in the TECH scenario. Reduction of wintersmog is smaller in absolute terms (remaining impact according to BAT in 2015 is 0,37 DALY whereas the remaining impact of carcinogenics is 0,12) and can be found in material efficiency in the paper, steel and cement industry and in the TECH scenario in end of pipe technologies in the mentioned industries. Climate change effects are supposed to increase up to the year 2015 and to decrease after 2015, as a result if improvement opportunities in energy efficiency in cement, steel and plastics industry and recycling opportunities in the steel, plastics, paper and aluminium industry. For the damage category ecosystem quality, the environmental effect of ecotoxicity is the most important as a result of the use of heavy metals. This effect could not be analysed, due to a lack of data on exotic metals. The effects of acidification and land use are much smaller (see figure 3.2), but a significant reduction of acidification effects and a smaller reduction of land use is possible. Reduction of acidification effects must be found in material efficiency in cement, plastics and paper production and in end of pipe technologies for bulk materials. Reduction of land use should be found in the use of wood (paper), but no specific technologies have been identified. For fossil fuel depletion total environmental impact still increases in both the BAT scenario and the TECH scenario. This, again, is a result of the strong growth foreseen for plastics. The explanation for the increase in fossil fuel depletion can partly be found in the expected growth in plastics and partly in the way the eco-indicator is constructed. The use of oil (plastics) is considered to contribute more to the effect of fossil fuel depletion than the use of coal (e.g. steel), because oil stocks are smaller than coal stocks. Combined with the fact that plastics use both process energy and oil as feedstock this explains the expected growth in fossil fuel depletion. Furthermore no end of pipe technologies have been identified for fossil fuel depletion.
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8.1 INTRODUCTION The objective of the project was to establish the environmental bottlenecks related to current and future material production and consumption and to identify the technological opportunities to mitigate these environmental problems. The results of the project will serve as an input to the development of a technology road map for Research and Development in the field of material technologies. In this study the material sector was analysed by determining the most important materials in terms of production and consumption quantities and environmental effects according to indicators from Pre (Pré, 1999, Pré, 2000). The use of the selected materials in different application areas was addressed, giving insight in the environmental impact of application areas. Scenario’s were developed concerning future demand for and production of materials in different application areas and the future environmental burden from this growth in materials was estimated. To come to an R&D technology road map the most important technological opportunities to decrease the environmental impact from the materials sector were inventoried and were possible quantified. Five more in-depth studies were executed in the case-studies on PV, fuel cells, automobiles, buildings and biomaterials. Furthermore, a workshop was organised to get feedback from industrial and/or sector representatives. In this final chapter we will draw conclusions from the study, from the case-studies addressed in annex 7 and from the workshop. Furthermore we will give recommendations for the process to develop the technology road map.
8.2 CONCLUSIONS
8.2.1 GENERAL
CONCLUSIONS
What we can conclude from the screening of the material sector is the relatively large material demand by the building sector, especially the use of cement, fired clay and other non-metallic minerals. Furthermore the demand for wood in the building sector and in furniture and decoration is quite large. The large demand for paper in both packaging and consumer nondurables is another important issue. The use of steel can be explained by the use in machinery, building and construction and transportation When talking about the absolute environmental impact of the material sector it is clear that the most important environmental impact (of course related to the type of materials used) is to be expected from material demand in the building and packaging sector. We must draw the
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conclusion that the materials that were selected in this study have a considerable contribution to the impact carcinogenics, climate change, ecotoxicity and fossil fuel depletion. The relative impact of the material sector on radiation, ozone layer depletion, acidification and land use is much lower. Possible opportunities to reduce these specific environmental impacts of materials must be seen in this context. Exceptions are the environmental impact categories of ecotoxicity and minerals depletion, where a number of rare and heavy metals may have a large contribution. It is expected that the total environmental impact will increase in the coming decades without the enhanced development and adoption of new material technologies. The environmental effects of each of the application areas can be explained by the demand for one to three bulk materials. The sector buildings (residential and non-residential) uses a large amount of steel, cement and fired clay. Cement is important for the environmental impacts summersmog and climate change, leading to a significant impact of the building sector to these human health impacts. The application areas roads and infrastructure are largely responsible for climate change effects because of the use of cement and steel. Consumer durables (eg. furniture) contributes to land use and fossil fuel depletion by the use of wood, paper and plastics and the packaging industry to climate change and fossil fuel depletion by the demand for plastics. Material technologies and cross cutting technologies and trends were described and where possible their contribution to mitigation options are explained and quantified. With regard to application areas and cross-cutting technologies trends are difficult to forecast. Several trends can potentially have a large impact on material consumption, such as consumer trends, ICT, etc. In which direction such trends will develop, and whether they have a net positive or a net negative impact on the environment cannot be predicted at this stage. In this study three scenario’s were constructed, estimating the use of materials and their specific environmental impact in 2015 and 2030 (Trend, BAT and Tech). In the scenario’s for material consumption a growth is expected in all application areas and therefore for nearby all materials, with a relatively small growth of steel and a large growth of plastics. The consumption and production of cement is expected to remain stable. In the Trend scenario the environmental effects in all environmental impact categories increase over time, with growing material consumption. The largest growth is observed for environmental impacts where plastics have a relatively large contribution, because of the high growth foreseen for plastics (e.g. fossil fuel depletion). Our analysis of the possible reduction of environmental impact of the materials sector shows that available technologies already comprise a large potential for mitigating the environmental impacts related to material consumption. This implies that barriers are economic or organisational, rather than just technical. In general, a larg reduction in environmental impacts is already obtained in the BAT scenario. The additional reduction in the Technical potential scenario compared to the BAT scenario is, in most cases, smaller. This is partly due to the fact that more commercially available technologies have been identified than technologies that are in less advanced stages of development. For fossil fuel depletion the total environmental impact still increases in both the BAT scenario and the TECH scenario. This, again, is a result of the strong growth foreseen for plastics (using oil as feedstock). In addition, no end-of-pipe technologies exist for fossil fuel depletion and climate change. A key conclusion from our technology inventory is that ‘traditional’ material technologies, such as more efficient material production, material-efficient product design and material recycling are important options to reduce the environmental impact in each of the impact categories of most of the materials. Substitution of one material by another will affect environmental impacts as well, but only in a product life-cycle
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approach the net effect on environmental impacts can be determined. This was beyond the scope of this study that was primarily directed at integral material systems. It turns out that advanced material production technology and recycling technologies are important options to reduce environmental effects for all environmental impact categories. For a number of impact categories, such as carcinogenics and summer smog, also end-of-pipe technologies have a substantial potential to reduce environmental impacts. One important area where technologies for limiting environmental impacts are missing is the recycling of cement/concrete and ceramics. Due to their high value practically all collectable metallic scrap (steel and aluminium) is recycled. Only a few percent are lost due to corrosion and contamination (e.g. with coatings, concrete or plaster). For paper, plastics and glass, material degradation and cost limitations are the main reasons why a considerable share is not recycled but landfilled or incinerated23. For these materials recycling rates are expected to be clearly higher in 2030 compared to 2000. This is partly due to the availability of waste resources, partly it is due to the availability of adequate recycling systems. While high recycling rates are technically feasible for all materials already today, it is crucial to reduce the costs further by innovations in product design, materials collection, separation, cleaning and processing. This will ensure the economic viability of high recycling rates (particularly important for plastics). Cross-cutting technologies, such as information and communication technology and advanced material technologies (e.g. nanotechnology) will have an impact on the production and use of materials. However, so far no cases have been identified where such technologies will have a strong net influence on the environmental impacts of material production and use. A potential exception is biotechnology. Biotechnology warrants further scrutiny because it may become an area with large growth potential in the future. The environmental impacts are uncertain, but potentially very large. Biotechnology may also have a large – but at present still largely unexplored - potential for limiting the environmental impact in other areas.
8.2.2 CONCLUSIONS
FROM CASE STUDIES
PV Large PV systems will not be economically important before 2030, but smaller household roofsystems will. Research mainly focuses on less material use (thinner layers) and more efficient material use, driven by the high costs of some of the materials. In practice however, no spin-off is found from this research; recycling of silicon wafers still receives little attention. At the time of large market scale penetration of PV, industries and governments should definitely have full information on the use of hazardous materials and recycling possibilities of hazardous and scarce (read: expensive) materials. Fuel cells Although widely promoted as being optimal environmentally friendly, there are some environmental and resource issues that should be addressed. Important is the dispersion of platinum: given the expected tightening of the platinum market and the environmental concerns of this material, research on recycling possibilities and alternative types of fuel cells should get a high priority. Considering hydrogen it is clear that zero-emission production of hydrogen is a 23
No incineration of glass.
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major environmental improvement (certainly in respect with climate change issues). Further development of renewable energy sources could enhance this opportunity. Mobile phones Considering recent developments the pursuit for improved performance and light weight materials will continue to increase, leading to an increase in the use of rare metals and probably in a decrease of the amount of metal per unit of functionality. Recycling of mobile phones is still in its infant stage, but could be expected to increase as a result of EU legislation. However, setting up a separate waste stream and an efficient recovery and recycling process is hugely expensive. Substitution of materials receives attention, for example replacement of tantalum by ceramics and niobium (more widely available), and is important with respect to ecotoxicity and depletion of minerals. Buildings In this study the energy use during use of the products is left out of consideration. In the case of buildings however, this is of major importance since about three quarters of the energy is demanded during the life time of the building and not during production and waste stage of the used building materials. Materials that require a lot of energy for production, or that are used in large quantities, can be preferred because of good insulation properties. Of course environmental effects of materials and depletion of resources should be addressed in the choice for materials. Recycling of building materials already receives a lot of attention, but because of the multi material compilation of rubble from building and construction, the costs for separating and re-use are yet too high. The use of industrial by products in production of building materials (fly ash, furnace slag) is already employed to a fairly large extend. Some environmental benefits can be reached by: • Decreased clinker input in cement production • High strength steel leading to longer life times of buildings • Reduce cement and steel use in buildings, increase use of (renewable) wood Long term improvements might come from more efficient space use, redesign of buildings (low energy) and reuse of product parts. Automobiles In line with the arguments in the buildings- case study the light weighing of vehicles can be of great importance for environmental improvement, due to less energy demand during the lift time of the product. However improvements in weight should not be at the expense of material recycleability. New joining technologies, lower-cost aluminium sheet materials, high-volume production technologies for fibre-reinforced composite materials, more reliable continuously cast aluminium components with improved performance capabilities, and innovative processing technologies for lower-cost carbon fibre materials are all being studied by vehicle manufacturers and independent research institutes as ways to reduce vehicle weight. Magnesium alloys and aluminium have a high priority for the shorter term (the next 10 years) while metal matrix composites, titanium alloys, and intermetallics are being considered for longer-range plans. Reinforced thermosets and lower-cost, high-stiffness reinforcements are the highest priorities in plastic developments, with advanced thermoplastic materials being important for future development. Biomaterials During the last few years, there have been promising developments in the production and use of synthetic organic materials. For the category of producing intermediates and bulk chemicals from biomass feedstock, there are some key R&D issues to mention.
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Adaptation of non-food crops to the needs of the materials sector Further optimisation of processes and products that can make use of organic waste materials and renewable raw materials • Biotechnological production of new “building blocks” (platform chemicals) that serve as a starting material for acetone, butadiol, propadiol et cetera. Most of the biomaterials that are now on the market are not designed for recycling, but are rather used for their biodegradability. Development of bio-based materials that are compatible with petrochemical materials (plastics) could provide substantial environmental benefits (Patel, 2001)
8.2.3 CONCLUSIONS
FROM THE WORKSHOP
After publication of an interim report in September 2001, containing the current environmental impacts of materials and application areas and a first indication of possibilities to reduce the environmental impact from the materials sector, a workshop with industry representatives and governmental parties was organised. See annex 8 for the summary of the workshop. Some remarks on the data sources, scope of the study and possibilities for reduction of environmental impact in application areas, products and materials can be found in the summary of the workshop. The main conclusions that were adopted at the workshop are: -
-
-
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We need all the materials that are produced and used. This study should certainly not be used as an negative tool against certain materials, but as a positive tool to investigate improvements. The focus should be on sustainable development in all its aspects, so also cultural, sociological, economical aspects etc. Put results in perspective and look at the complete picture. Looking at different aspects separately (e.g. environmental impact of materials) leads to the ‘wrong’ conclusions. Give attention to behavioral aspects. As we have seen not all commercially available techniques have been implemented, it is interesting to investigate on “why not?” There is hardly any budget for demonstration projects in the capital intensive sector. A company will not invest in a certain technology before there is a good chance it will be successful. Long term research, basic research, should receive governmental attention and funds. IPTS and/or the European Commission should sit down with sector and discuss possibilities, e.g. for the technology road map. The sector is quite willing to do so.
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8.3 TOWARDS
A TECHNOLOGY ROAD MAP
As already said, the ‘traditional’ material technologies seem to be most important in reducing environmental impact of the material system in the European Union. Hence, a substantial part of R&D and innovation efforts should be directed at these sectors. The term traditional does not mean that developments are straightforward. On the contrary, the further development of these technologies requires the deployment of technology, also from the emerging areas such as information and process control technology, advanced materials and catalysts, etc. In the previous paragraphs we have indicated the main areas for technology development and innovation. In our analysis also a number of individual technologies, that have a relatively high potential for limiting the overall environmental impact, have come forward. Part of this potential is comprised of commercially available technologies of which current implementation rates can be increased. Examples are membrane cells for chlorine production (instead of mercury or diaphragm cells), the reduction of fluorinated gases from aluminium production, multi-stage preheater/precalcination clinker kilns in cement production and additive cements (with a reduced clinker content). The list of technologies is just a first selection of which the researchers have confidence that they can substantially contribute to the decrease of environmental impacts. Concrete identified technologies that need further R&D are: In the production of materials: • Steel - Smelt reduction technology - A barrier for implementation is the high development costs in combination with the current slump on the steel market. - Strip casting/spray casting – this technology is commercial in minimills. Operation in integrated steel mills is proven, but operation involves many start-up problems. Spray casting can currently only be used for special products. • Aluminium - Non-consumable anodes and wettable cathodes – Field testing and material failure analysis are still required. • Paper and board - Material gasification for fuels – A barrier for implementation is the lifetime of current recovery boilers. Technical development is required. Upscaling is still required. - Improved pressing and drying concepts – current barriers for implementation are the quality of the paper produced and disturbances in the paper machine operation. Perceived energy savings are a topic of discussion. • Cement/concrete - Techniques to reduce CO2 emissions in the production process by using different raw materials – Innovation has not started yet. - Chemical recycling of concrete – Research is required to find a feasible process for cement/concrete recycling. - High strength cement - Geopolymeric cements – Currently, materials with the right characteristics are still being searched.
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•
Plastics - Membrane reactors – Suitable membrane materials for separation of different products that can withstand higher pressures and temperatures are required. - Gas turbine integration in steam crackers – Required alterations to existing crackers make this a very expensive option - Catalysts for new and existing polymers – Trial and error research into new catalysts is required.
In disassembly, recovery and recycling24: • Waste identification and separation systems for mixed waste streams – current systems are laborious and too expensive. • Recovery and recycling of rare metals from applications such as mobile phones, PV systems, etc. In general, material-efficient product design has a substantial potential impact on the environmental impacts, although life cycle assessments of such technologies are needed to assess net benefits compared to the current system/technologies. The following options seem important examples: • Advanced forming techniques for light-weight auto bodies • Digital printing • Sustainable buildings • Design for disassembly for appliances and electronic devices • The use of biomaterials for certain applications
8.4 RECOMMENDATIONS
ON
RESEARCH
AND
TECHNOLOGICAL
DEVELOPMENT
With regard to future R&D, it is useful to distinguish between energy and material efficiency in production and material efficiency in applications on one hand, and recycling technologies and end-of-pipe technologies on the other hand. Both categories are expected to be of comparable importance. Industrial parties have the impression that the importance of the former category is underestimated in the public debate. The first category usually has other benefits to the producer, such as cost savings, a higher throughput or better product quality. Therefore, the drive for companies to develop such technologies will be greater than with the second category of technologies. In addition, only a limited number of parties are involved in the implementation of such measures. It seems logical that the main driving force in the development and commercialisation of these technologies will come from companies that directly benefit from the development. However, it would be a simplification to assume that development and commercialisation of these technologies is an autonomous process. Investing in these technologies, how attractive they may be, is just one of the many investment choices that companies can make. Therefore, incentives are needed to guarantee sufficient progress in developing these technologies. Such incentives may include financial R&D support, but it is likely to be most successful if it is embedded in co-operative technology agreements. Such agreements may be based on a technology road map and they may
24 According to APME the treatment of plastics as an alternative high calorific fuel (replacing coal) leads to substantial environmental benefits and should be added here.
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lead technology developers, technology users and governments/the Commission to work jointly towards certain future targets. The drive of individual companies to develop recycling technologies and end-of-pipe technologies will be much smaller. One reason for this is that there often is a lack of financial benefits. Furthermore, often a multitude of partners is involved in the actual implementation of technologies; this will, for instance, be the case for recycling technologies were those involved in product use, waste collection, waste treatment and material recycling have to co-operate to get the technology operational. In this case, a stronger incentive role of governments/the Commission is likely to be needed. Innovation may be much more dependent on financial support through the whole development cycle of new systems, from applied research to demonstration. Furthermore, governments have a large influence on the set-up of waste collection and treatment systems and they can – through regulation and other incentives - have a positive influence on the way such systems develop. However, to avoid the development of sub-optimal systems, it is important that such choices are based on a widely accepted technology road map. It is important to recognise that both types of development that are distinguished here are often dependent on each other. Some material efficient product designs, for example, may hinder recycling and vice versa. This makes it necessary to work towards the development of a material system in which both types of development are treated in an integral way.
8.5 RECOMMENDATIONS
ON TOOLS AND SYSTEMS ANALYSES
To deal with the possible trade-off between the environmental effects in the production phase and those in the use phase a tool determining the life cycle-based environmental impacts should be developed with which the performance of products can be assessed. Such a tool should help product designers and others involved in material production and use to find optimum solutions within their responsibility. It may also help governments/the Commission to select the right developments for further stimulation25. The development of such a tool will require the selection of calculation and weighing schemes in co-operation with the industry to gain a general acceptance. Also the selection of the relevant environmental impacts (and the weighing in case of aggregation) should be part of this. The EcoIndicator approach has useful elements for such a tool, but lacks general acceptance at this point. Drawbacks of the methodology that have been mentioned are the treatment of heavy metals (economic weighing factor) and the lack of transparency in the link between emissions and the impact indicator and of the weighing scheme. In addition, EcoIndicator values have not been constructed for all the applications that should be included in such a tool.26. Further attention needs to be paid to the issue of heavy metals. Due to caveats in the EcoIndicator methodology with regard to the treatment of heavy metals, these have been dealt with only on a limited scale. Especially for the environmental impact categories ecotoxicity and minerals depletion, the contribution of heavy metals to the overall environmental impact can be substantial. 25
Something like this has been developed for climate change in the Netherlands to deal with the trade-off between the refrigerants used in refrigerators (which can be powerful greenhouse gases) and the energy consumption in the use phase. Here, the TEWI concept, or the Total Equivalent Warming Impact has been developed, which makes it possible to measure the environmental effects of both the use phase and the materials used in the production phase. 26 The Eco-indicator is under consturction
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We have indicated that it is hard to make projections of the effect of changes in application areas and emerging technological developments on the environmental impacts of the material system. In order to be able to better forecast and quantify the changes in material consumption it is recommended to develop a signalling and monitoring system, focusing on the changes in the material system that can have substantial environmental impacts, both in a positive or negative sense.
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5()(5(1&(6
AISI (1998), Steel Industry Technology Road map, downloadable from URL http://www.steel.org/mt/road map/road map.htm Albrecht, J.: Das Mysterium des grünen Punktes. Die Zeit, No. 23, p.35, 31 May 2001 APEAL (2001) Steel: The green packaging material, The Association of European Producers of Steel for Packaging, Brussels. APME (Association of Plastics Manufacturers in Europe). Eco-profiles of plastics and related intermediates (about 55 products). Downloadable from the internet (http://lca.apme.org or www.apme.org), Brussels, 1999 APME (Association of Plastics Manufacturers in Europe): Plastics – An analysis of plastics consumption and recovery in Western Europe 1999 (Publication date: Spring 2001). Downloadable from www.apme.org, Brussels, 2001 APME (Association of Plastics Manufacturers in Europe): Plastics – An analysis of plastics consumption and recovery in Western Europe, 1990-1998. Various editions, Brussels, 1991-2000 Ast, A.; Sell, D.: Einsatz von gentechnisch veränderten Organismen zur Verringerung von Umweltbelastungen. Study prepared by DECHEMA (Deutsche Gesellschaft für Chemisches Apparatewesen, Chemische Technik und Biotechnologie) for the German Umweltbundesamt (UBA). Berlin, 1998 Ayres, R.U.; Ayres, L. W.: Industrial Ecology - Towards closing the materials cycle. Edward Elgar Publishing Ltd, Cheltenham (UK) / Brookfield (US), 1996. BAT (1998) Dutch Notes on BAT for Glass and the Mineral Wool Industry, Infomil, The Hague. Baumann, H. and T. Rydberg, Life cycle assessment (LCA) a comparison of three methods for impact analysis evaluation, Journal of cleaner production v 2 n 1, 1994. p 13-20. Beer, J. de, D. Phylipsen, J. Bates, 2001, Economic Evaluation of Sectoral Emission Reduction Objectives for Climate Change, Economic Evaluation of Carbon Dioxide and Nitrous Oxide Emission Reductions in Industry in the EU - Bottom-up Analysis, Ecofys, AEA Technology. Utrecht, commissioned by the European Commission, Culham, UK, January 2001. BFH, 1999, Biomass for greenhouse gas emission reduction; Forestry and Forestry products use in Western Europe, Bundesforschungsanstalt fur Forst- und Holzwirtschaft, Hamburg. Bos, A.J.M., Direction Indirect, PhD thesis, Rijksuniversiteit Groningen, Groningen, 1998.
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Brandrup, J.: Ökologie und Ökonomie der Kunststoffverwertung. Paper presented on the Expert Workshop "Energetische Verwertung von Kunststoffen", Oberhausen, 1998 BREF-glass (2000), Integrated Pollution and Prevention Control – Reference Document on Best Available Techniques in the Glass Manufacturing Industries, EC, JRC-IPTS, Seville. BREF-IS (2000), Integrated Pollution and Prevention Control – Reference Document on Best Available Techniques in the Iron and Steel Industries, EC, JRC-IPTS, Seville. BREF-NFM (2000), Integrated Pollution and Prevention Control – Reference Document on Best Available Techniques in the Non-Ferrous Metal Industries, EC, JRC-IPTS, Seville. BREF-PP (2000), Integrated Pollution and Prevention Control – Reference Document on Best Available Techniques in the Pulp and Paper Industries, EC, JRC-IPTS, Seville. Bruinenberg: Gene technology and the starch industry. Gülzower Fachgespräche, Workshop "Biotechnologie und Gentechnik in der Industriepflanzenzüchtung", Editor: Fachagentur Nachwachsende Rohstoffe (FNR), pp.86-91.November 1995 CEFIC: Energy efficiency and CO2 emission data (electronic version). Available from M. Vermeulen, CEFIC. Belgium, Brussels, 2001 Cembureau (The European Cement Association): Personal Communication, 2001 CEMBUREAU, 1997. ‘Best available techniques for the cement industry’. European Cement Industry. Cembureau, 2000, Best Available Techniques for the Cement Industry, Cembureau, Brussels. Cembureau, 2000. Personal Communication, 2000 CEPI (2000) Annual Statistics, Confederation of European Paper Industries, Brussels. CEPI (2000) Special Recycling 1999 Statistics, Confederation of European Paper Industries, Brussels. CEPI (2000b) Annual Report 2000, Confederation of European Paper Industries, Brussels. CEPI (Confederation of European Paper Industries): Data available on website (www.cepi.org) and by personal communication with Mr. Kilby. Brussels, 2001 CERAM Research Ltd. 1996. ‘Technology foresight study. A report from the council of CERAM Research’. CERAM Research Ltd, Stoke-on-Trent, UK. Available on http://www.foresight.gov.uk/default1024.htm (Accessed May 2001). CERAM, 1996. ‘Technology foresight study. A report from the council of the CERAM research’. UK. CERAM, 2000. ‘Ceramics. Technology foresight 2000. A report from the council of CERAM’. UK.
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