Climate change and challenges of water and food ...

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International Journal of Chemical Studies 2017; 5(2): 221-236

P-ISSN: 2349–8528 E-ISSN: 2321–4902 IJCS 2017; 5(2): 221-236 © 2017 JEZS Received: 09-01-2017 Accepted: 10-02-2017 RK Naresh Department of Agronomy, Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel University of Agriculture & Technology, Meerut, U.P., India. RK Gupta Borlaug Institute for South Asia (BISA), New Delhi -110 012, India PS Minhas Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR), New Delhi -110 012, India RS Rathore Uttar Pradesh Council of Agricultural Research (UPCAR), Lucknow, U.P., India Ashish Dwivedi Department of Agronomy, Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel University of Agriculture & Technology, Meerut, U.P., India. Purushottam Department of Pathology & Microbiology, Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel University of Agriculture & Technology, Meerut, U.P., India. Vineet Kumar Department of Soil Science, Department of Agronomy, Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel University of Agriculture & Technology, Meerut, U.P., India. SP Singh Department of Soil Science, Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel University of Agriculture & Technology, Meerut, U.P., India. Saurabh Tyagi Department of Agronomy, Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel University of Agriculture & Technology, Meerut, U.P., India. Ankit Kumar Department of Plant Pathology Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel University of Agriculture & Technology, Meerut250110, U.P., India Onkar Singh Department of Soil Science, Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel University of Agriculture & Technology, Meerut, U.P., India. Correspondence Ashish Dwivedi Department of Agronomy, Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel University of Agriculture & Technology, Meerut, U.P., India.

Climate change and challenges of water and food security for smallholder farmers of Uttar Pradesh and mitigation through carbon sequestration in agricultural lands: An overview RK Naresh, RK Gupta, PS Minhas, RS Rathore, Ashish Dwivedi, Purushottam, Vineet Kumar, SP Singh, Saurabh Tyagi, Ankit Kumar and Onkar Singh Abstract Approximately 75% of the Himalayan glaciers are on retreat and will disappear by 2035. Moreover in Uttar Pradesh, India by 2050 the rainfall could drop by 10%, which would reduce drainage by 17%. Majority of the fresh water resources has already been depleted and there is reduction in agricultural production globally with escalation in population and food demand. Global food supply will depend on how well agriculture adopts to climate change. The apparent impacts of the global climate change in India include erratic monsoon, high intensity floods, increased frequency of draughts, decreasing crop yields among others. Rapid industrial development, urbanization and the increasing demand for irrigation water to feed the burgeoning population of India are already placing immense pressure on water resources. There is a direct link between the rise in global temperature and damage to eco-systems. About 130 million hectares (mha) land in India is undergoing different levels of degradation, namely water erosion (32.8 mha), wind erosion (10.8 mha), desertification (8.5 mha), water logging (8.5 mha). The greenhouse gases (GHGs) in atmosphere are increasing at the rate of 0.5%, 0.6% and 0.25 ppbv yr -1 for CO2, CH4 and N2O, respectively. Contribution of these three GHGs to global warming is to an extent of 20% due to agricultural activities and 14% due to in land use changes and attendant deforestation. Major agricultural activities that contribute to emission of GHGs include ploughing, application of manures and fertilizers, biomass burning and crop residue removal. Historic global C loss due to agriculture is estimated at 55 to 100 Pg from soil C pool and 100 to 150 Pg from the biotic C pool. Adoption of recommended agricultural practices can lead to enhanced in soil organic carbon (SOC) storage and restoration of soil quality. Trends indicate that agricultural productivity will decline up to 25 percent which could be as much as 50 percent in rain-fed agriculture. Small and marginal farmers with small land holdings will be more vulnerable to climate change. With the temperature increasing and precipitation fluctuations, water availability and crop production are likely to decrease in the future. This paper also presents easily and economically feasible options to ensure water and food security under climate change and recommend formation of effective adaptation and mitigation polices and strategies to minimizing the impact of climate change on water resources and irrigation. The long-term solution to the risk of potential global warming lies in finding alternatives to fossil fuel. Therefore, the strategy of soil C sequestration is a bridge to the future. Keywords: Climate change, water and food security, carbon sequestration

Introduction Climate change is a major challenge for agriculture, water availability, food security and rural livelihoods for millions of people including the poor in India. Adverse impact will be more on small holding farmers. Climate change is expected to have adverse impact on the living conditions of farmers who are already vulnerable and food insecure. Rural communities, particularly those living in already fragile environments, face an immediate and ever-growing risk of increased crop failure, loss of livestock and forest products. They would have adverse effects on water availability, food security and livelihoods of small farmers in particular. In order to have climate change sensitive and pro-poor policies, there is a need to focus on small farmers. Agriculture adaptation and mitigation could provide benefits for small farmers. The coping strategies would be useful to have long term adaptation strategies. There is a significant potential for small farmers to sequester soil carbon if appropriate policy reforms are reforms are implemented. ~ 221 ~

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The importance of collective action in climate change adaptation and mitigation is recognized and very important for technology transfer in agriculture and natural resource management among small holders and resource dependent communities. The rise in global food prices (Koning et al., 2008 [57]; Swinnen and Squicciarini, 2012) [117] has raised concerns about food security and how to feed the hungry world Godfray et al., (2010) [35]. The year 2012 was marked by extreme weather and globally, confirming the impacts of climate change on food security Parry et al., (2005) [96]. The world population of 7.2 billion and the atmospheric CO2 concentration of 400 ppmv in 2013 are increasing at the annual rate of 75 million people and 2.2 ppmv, respectively (GHG Bulletin, 2011) [39]. Indeed, there exists a strong correlation between the human population and CO2 emission: growth in world population by one billion increases CO 2-C emission from fossil fuel consumption by 1.4 Pg (1 Pg = 10 15, g = 1 Gt) (Lal et al., 2013) [71, 74]. That being the case, the projected increase in the world population to 9.6 billion by 2050 and 11 billion by 2100 [14] will increase CO 2-C emission from 10 Pg C/year in 2012 to 13.4 Pg C/year by 2050 and 15.3 PgC/year by 2100. In comparison, the Energy Information Authority (EIA, 2013) estimated the world’s energy-related CO2-C emissions at 8.5 Pg in 2010, 9.9 Pg in 2020, 11.3 Pg in 2030 and 12.4 Pg in 2040, with an average annual rate of increase of 1.3% per year. The ramifications of the growing competition for soil, water and energy Pimentel, (2011) [98] are exacerbated by anthropogenic forces. Important among these are climate change and its uncertainties, soil resource degradation, water quality and renewability, activity, use efficiency of energy-based inputs, the stability and sustainability of agricultural productivity and global food security. The imbalance in food-soil-people stands out in

several regions, including South Asia (SA) Swaminathan, (2012) [116]. The strong nexus between fossil fuel combustion, climate change and food security is widely recognized (Lal et al., 2013) [71, 74]. Yet, there are numerous uncertainties regarding the impacts of climate Lovejoy et al., (2012) [79] and variability on agriculture and food security Zhang, (2011) [114, 134] because of the confounding interaction with the CO 2 fertilization effect as moderated by water and nutrient availability and growing risks of extreme weather Godfray et al., (2010) [35]. India accounts for about 2.3% of world’s geographical area and 4.2% of its water resources but has to support almost 18% of world’s human population and 15% of the livestock. Agriculture remains the most important sector of Indian economy with 18% share in gross domestic product (GDP) at 2011–12 prices, 11% of exports and 53.3% share in total employment or workforce in 2013–14. As per the Agriculture Census 2010–11, the total number of operational holdings in the country has almost doubled from 71.01 million in 1970– 71 to 138.35 million in 2010–11 (Fig. 1). During the same period, the average size of operational holding has declined to 1.15 ha from 2.28 ha in 1970–71 (GOI, 2014) [36]. The small and marginal holdings taken together (below 2.0 ha) constituted 85.01% with operated area of 44.58% in 2010–11 against 83.29% with 41.14% of operated area in 2005–06. In a total of 138.35 million operational holdings the highest one belonged to Uttar Pradesh (23.33 million) and total of 159.59 million hectares operated area in 2010-11, the contribution was made by Uttar Pradesh (17.62 million ha.). The average size of operational holding in the country was1.15 ha in 201011and in Uttar Pradesh was 0.76 ha (Chand et al, 2011) [21]. Thus, the small holding character of Indian agriculture is much more prominent today than even before.

Fig. 1: Number of operational holdings in India. Adapted from GOI (2014) [36].

Food Production The country’s production of cereals is next only to China and USA. Among the important cereals, India is the second largest producer globally of rice and wheat, and the top producer of pulses. India is also the largest producer of milk and second largest producer of groundnut, vegetables, fruits, sugarcane, and cotton. As per the fourth advance estimates for 2013–14, total food grain production in India has been estimated at 264.77 Mt (DAC, 2015) [22]. Total production of pulses and oilseeds estimated at record levels of 19.27 and 32.88 Mt, respectively. Total production of rice in the country is estimated at 106.54 Mt which is a new record, higher by 1.30 Mt than the production of rice during 2012–13. Production of wheat, estimated at record level of 95.91 Mt is also higher than the production of 93.51 Mt during 2012–13.

The production of coarse cereals is estimated at 43.05 Mt. Similarly, the production of milk (137.7 Mt), eggs (73.4 billion nos.), and wool (47.9 million kg) was also higher during 2013–14 compared to previous years. Uttar Pradesh has accounted for 19% share in the country’s total food grain output during 2014-15. Total sugarcane production in India 28.3 million tonne in the fiscal ending September 2015, and Uttar Pradesh production was 7.35 million tonne and contribute 7.8% to India’s GDP. Small and marginal farmers also make larger contribution to the production of high value crops. They contribute around 70% to the total production of vegetables, 55% to fruits against their share of 44% in land area (Birthal, 2011) [18]. Their share in cereal production is 52% and 69% in milk production. Thus, small farmers contribute to both diversification and food security.

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Food Demand The consumption pattern of food grains, which contribute to major nutritional intake, is decreasing; it was 64% during the base year 2000, and may decrease to 57 and 48% during the projected years of 2025 and 2050, respectively (Amarasinghe et al., 2007) [8]. Contributions from non-grain crops and other animal products are increasing. The contribution from nongrain crops was 28% during 2000, and is projected to be 33 and 36% during 2025 and 2050, respectively. Contribution from other animal products was 8% during 2000, and is projected to increase to 12 and 16% during 2025 and 2050, respectively. Taking these trends into consideration the total food grain demand is estimated to be 291 Mt by 2025 and 377 Mt by 2050, whereas the total production is estimated to be 292 Mt by 2025 and 385Mt by 2050, which is 2.0% more than the demand. However, production deficits are projected for

other cereals, oilseeds, and pulses. The projected deficit is 33 and 3% in 2025 and 43 and 7% in 2050 for other cereals and pulses, respectively. Another study by Singh (2009) [106] found that the food consumption levels in India will increase from the current level of 2400 kcal/capita per day to about 3000 kcal/capita per day in 2050 and the demand for cereals will rise to 243 Mt in 2050. The rain-fed crop yields are expected to increase to 1.8 t/ha in 2030 and 2.0 t/ha in 2050. The irrigated cereal yields are projected to increase from 3.5 to 4.6 t/ha during the same period. The cereal production in India is thus projected to increase by 0.9% per year between 1999– 2001 and 2050, and is expected to exceed the demand by 2050 even if the projected growth is about 0.9% per year. The projected food demand made by several studies is given in Table 1.

Table 1: Food demand projections of different studies for India.

Source of study Bansil (1996) Kumar (1998) Paroda and Kumar (2000) Radhakrishna and Reddy (2004) Mittal (2008) Kumar et al. (2009) Amarasinghe and Singh (2009) [106] Singh (2013)

Year 2020 2020 2020 2020 2021 2026 2021–22 2025 2050 2020

Rice — 134.0 111.9 118.9 96.8 102.1 113.3 109 117 106.7

Food Security and Climate Change The concept of food security has been undergoing an evolutionary change during the last 50 years. In the 1950s, food security was considered essentially in terms of production. More recently, it is becoming evident that even if availability and access are satisfactory, the biological absorption of food in the body is related to the consumption of clean drinking water as well as to environmental hygiene, primary health care, and primary education. There are large disparities among sub-regions and countries in the region. India still has the second-highest estimated number of undernourished people in the world. The number of undernourished people in India is 194.6 (15.2%) million during 2014–16 compared to 210.1 million (23.7%) during 1990–92; “Global Hunger Index-2015” released by

Wheat — 127.3 79.9 92.4 64.3 65.9 89.5 91 102 85.72

Total cereals — 309.0 229.0 221.1 245. 277.2 233.6 273 356 220.0

Pulses — — 23.8 19.5 42.5 57.7 19.5 18.0 21 23.2

Food grains 241.4 — 252.8 240.6 287.6 334.9 253.2 291.0 1377.0 243.2

International Food Policy Research Institute ranks India at 25 with a score of 29 among 117 countries. About 54% of pregnant women suffer from anemia in India. The prevalence of vitamin A deficiency in the population is also very high in India (62% in 2003). The Indian Government has been responding with a number of measures to overcome hunger and malnutrition. International Rice Research Institute (IRRI), we might lose 15% of the world's rice crop with every degree of global warming. Agricultural production in India is closely linked to the performance of summer monsoon (June– September) which contributes about 75% of the annual precipitation (Fig. 2). Apart from the inter-annual variability in summer monsoon rainfall, occurrence of many of the hydro-meteorological events is found to influence Indian agriculture at different spatial scales.

Source: Adapted from Srinivasa Rao et al., (2013) Fig. 2: Monsoon rainfall versus deviation in food grain

production during kharif (rainy season) during different years. Apart from the summer monsoon rainfall, India receives about 15% of annual precipitation during the winter months

of December–March. This precipitation is very important for rabi (winter) crops. Though rainfall and its distribution have profound influence on the Indian food grain production, other

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climatic elements like radiation and temperature are also exerting considerable effect. Projected climate change may exacerbate the extreme climatic events and aggravate the risks of drought, flooding, pest infestation, and water scarcity to agro-ecosystems already under great stress (Beddington et al., 2012) [15]. Climate change may affect food systems in several ways (Gregory et al., 2005) [40], although not all effects of climate change may be adverse to agronomic/food production (Lal, 2013) [71, 74]. In spite of the uncertainties about the precise magnitude of climate change at regional scales, an assessment of the possible impacts of changes in key climatic elements on agricultural resources is important for formulating response strategies (Rajeevan, 2013) [102]. Climate change may affect agricultural crops in four ways (Hulme, 1996) [45]. First, changes in temperature and precipitation will alter the distribution of agro-ecological zones. An increase in potential evapo-transpiration is likely to intensify drought stress, especially in the semiarid tropics and subtropics. Second, carbon dioxide effects are expected to have a positive impact due to greater water use efficiency and higher rate of photosynthesis. Third, water availability (or runoff) is another critical factor in determining the impact of climate change. Fourth, agricultural losses can result from climatic variability and the increased frequency of extreme events such as droughts and floods or changes in precipitation and temperature variance. Birthal et al. (2014) [19] projected the effects of climate change on crop yields for three timescales (2035, 2065, and 2100) at minimum and maximum changes in temperature and rainfall. In general, the production of pulses will be affected more by climate change than other crops. By the year 2100, with a significant change in climate, the yield of chick pea and pigeon pea will be lower by around 25% vis-a-vis without climate change (Table 2). The climate impacts on cereals will vary widely in rainy season as well as winter seasons. In the winter season, wheat yield will be less by about 22%, almost 3 times that of barley. Similarly, among rainy season cereals, rice will be affected more than maize and sorghum by the climate change. Rice yield will decline by over 15% with significant changes in climate as compared to loss of 7% in sorghum and of 4% in maize. Groundnut also stands to lose, but rapeseed-mustard is likely to gain by a small margin. If the climate does not change significantly, yield losses will be much smaller. However, the climate impacts will not be so severe in the short-run (2035). Maximum changes in temperature and rainfall are 1.3°C and 7% by 2035, 2.5°C and 26% by 2065, and 3.5°C and 27% by 2100, respectively. Table 2: Projected changes in crop yields (%) at maximum changes in temperature and rainfall by 2035, 2065, and 2100 Crop

2035 2065 2100 Rainy season Rice -7.1 -11.5 -15.4 Maize -1.2 -3.7 -4.2 Sorghum -3.3 -5.3 -7.1 Pigeon pea -10.1 -17.7 -23.3 Groundnut -5.6 -8.6 -11.8 Winter season Wheat -8.3 -15.4 -22.0 Barley -2.5 -4.7 -6.8 Chick pea -10.0 -18.6 -26.2 Rapeseed -mustard 0.3 0.7 0.5 Source: Adapted from Birthal et al., (2014).

The direct impacts of climate change would be small on rainy season crops but the crops will become vulnerable due to increased incidence of weather extremes such as changes in rainy days, rainfall intensity, duration and frequency of drought and floods, diurnal asymmetry of temperature, change in humidity, and pest incidence and virulence. Winter crop production may become comparatively more vulnerable due to larger increase in temperature, asymmetry of day and night temperature, and higher uncertainties in rainfall (Rajeevan, 2013) [102]. The effects of climate change on food production are not limited to crops. It will affect food production and food security via its direct or indirect impact on other components of the agricultural production systems, especially livestock production which is closely linked with crop production. Livestock in India are raised under mixed crop–livestock systems deriving a substantial share of their energy requirements from crop by-products and residues. Any decline in crop area or production will reduce fodder supplies. Heat stress on animals will reduce rate of feed intake. The higher temperatures and changing rainfall patterns may cause increased spread of the existing vector-borne diseases and macro-parasites, alter disease pattern, give rise to new diseases, and affect reproduction behavior. All these factors will affect performance of the livestock (Birthal et al., 2014) [19] . By 2065, India’s population is likely to cross 1.7 billion mark demanding more and diversified foods. With climate change, ensuring food security with more food production under limited resources will be a big challenge. It is, however, possible for farmers and other stakeholders to adapt to climate change and reduce the losses. Simple adaptations, such as change in crop variety, planting dates, rainwater conservation, adoption of resilient intercropping systems, particularly in rain-fed areas could help in reducing impacts of climate change. For example, losses in wheat production can be reduced from 4–5 to 1–2 Mt, if a large percentage of farmers could change to timely planting (Aggarwal, 2008) [3]. Ye and Ranst, (2009) [125] concluded that declining food production under changing and variable climate from 18% surplus in 2005 to 22%–32% deficits by 2030–2050, with a doubling of the rate of soil degradation. Kumar and Parikh (2001) [62] shown for rice and wheat crop that projected large-scale changes in the climate would lead to significant reductions in their crop yields, which in turn would adversely affect agricultural production by 2060 and may affect the food security of more than one billion people in India. Kumar et al., (2011) [58, 61] mentioned that decline in irrigated area for maize, wheat and mustard in northeastern and coastal regions; and for rice, sorghum and maize in Western Ghats of India may cause loss of production due to climate change. Hundal and Prabhjyot-Kaur (2007) [46] concluded that an increase in minimum temperature up to 1 to 3°C above normal has led to decline in productivity of rice and wheat by 3% and 10% respectively in Punjab. Geethalakshmi et al., (2011) concluded that productivity of rice crop has declined up to 41% with 40C increase in temperature in Tamil Nadu. Saseendran et al., (2000) [113] analyzed the projected results for duration 1980-2049; found that increment in temperature up to 50C can lead to continuous decline in the yield of rice and every one degree increment of temperature will lead up to 6% decline in yield in Kerala (India). Srivastava et al., (2010) [111] found that climate change will reduce monsoon sorghum productivity up to 14% in central zone (CZ) and up to 2% in south central zone (SCZ) by 2020;

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and this model also suggested that yields are likely to be affect even more in 2050 and 2080 scenarios; climate change impacts on winter crop are projected to reduce yields up to 7%, 11% and 32% by 2020, 2050 and 2080 respectively in India. Asha et al., (2012) [12] found that the yields of sorghum, maize, pigeon pea (arhar), groundnut, wheat, onion and cotton has decreased up to 43.03, 14.09, 28.23, 34.09, 48.68, 29.56 and 59.96 kilogram per hectare respectively in rain-fed area; they also mentioned that almost 100% and 92.22% small and sample farmers respectively reported that the reduction in the rainfall was the major reason for reduction in the yield levels over the period followed by the pest and disease to the extent of 72.22%; and changes in temperature and seasonal patterns were quoted as the reason for the reduction in the yield by 42.22% of the sample respondents in Dharwad district in Karnataka (India). Vinesh et al., (2011) [123] revealed that climate change has shifted and shortened crop duration in major crops rice and sugarcane, and it has significantly affected cane productivity in Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand. Kapur et al., (2009) [55] projected surface warming and shift in rainfall may decrease crop yields by 30% by the mid 21 st

century, due to this reason there may be reduction in arable land resulting into pressures on agriculture production in India. Micro-level Assessment of Vulnerability to Climate Change Climate change projections made for India indicate an overall increase in temperature by 1–4°C and precipitation by 9–16% toward 2050s (Krishna Kumar et al., 2011) [58, 61]. Rama Rao et al. (2013) [103] estimated that by midcentury (2021–50), districts in Rajasthan, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, eastern Uttar Pradesh, and Bihar exhibit very high and high vulnerability. Toward end of the century (2071–98), almost all districts in Rajasthan and many districts in Gujarat, Maharashtra, and Karnataka and a few districts in Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Punjab, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, and Andhra Pradesh exhibit very high vulnerability. A majority of districts with low and very low vulnerability are located along the west coast and southern and eastern parts of the country (Fig. 3).

Fig. 3: District-level vulnerability of Indian agriculture to climate change, (A) present, (B) midcentury (2021–50), and (C) end of the century (2071–98). Rama Rao et al. (2013) [103].

found that wheat growth in northern India is highly sensitive to temperatures greater than 34°C. Lal etal., (2001b) found that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report of 2007 echoed similar concerns on wheat yield: a 0.5°C rise in winter temperature is likely to reduce wheat yield by 0.45 tonnes per hectare in India. Easterling et al., (2007) [26] reported that an acute water shortage conditions, together with thermal stress, will affect rice productivity even more severely. According to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC, depending on the climate change scenario, 200 to 600 million more people globally could suffer from hunger by

2080 (Yohe et al., 2007) [131]. Yohe et al., (2007) [313] and Lloyd et al., (2011) [76] also make the projection that climate change will have significant effects on future under-nutrition, even when the beneficial effects of economic growth are taken into account. (Nira Ramachandran, 2014) [93] revealed that climate change amplifies the economic drivers of food insecurity. Variation in the length of the crop growing season and higher frequency of extreme events due to climate change and the consequent growth of output adversely affect the farmer’s net income. According to Nira Ramachandran (2014) [93] , food stocks begin to run out three or four months after

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harvest, farm jobs are unavailable and by the next monsoon/sowing season, food shortages peak to hunger. Climate change will exacerbate India’s existing problems of urban food insecurity. The highest risks related to climate change are likely to be concentrated among the low-income groups residing in informal settlements which are often located in areas exposed to floods and landslides and where housing is especially vulnerable to extreme weather events such as wind and water hazards (Nira Ramachandran, 2014) [93] . James Hasen, the leading Climate Scientist in the USA has said that sea level rise will most probably become the most important single issue of the 21st Century. In the 19th Century, the sea level was rising by only 0.1 mm yr -1. In 1950's, the speed started to accelerate and was approximately 2 mm in the 1990's. The present rate of sea level rise might be 3.7mm yr-1, even though there is some variation in the results. This rate corresponds to 37cm in a Century (Chambers, 2003) [20] . FAO, (2016) revealed that change in climatic conditions could lead to a reduction in the nutritional quality of foods (reduced concentration in proteins and minerals like zinc and iron) due to elevated carbon dioxide levels. FAO, (2016) concluded that in India, where legumes (pulses) rather than meat are the main source of proteins, such changes in the quality of food crops will accelerate the largely neglected epidemic known as “hidden hunger” or micronutrient deficiency. (Lal et al., 1998 [66]; Kalra et al., 2003) revealed that a 0.5°C rise in winter temperature would reduce wheat yield by 0.45 tonnes per hectare in India. More studies suggest a 2 to 5% decrease in yield potential of wheat and maize for a temperature rise of 0.5 to 1.5°C in India

(Aggarwal, 2003). Studies also suggest that a 2°C increase in mean air temperature could decrease rain-fed rice yield by 5 to 12% in China (Lin et al., 2004) Figure 4. In South Asia, the drop in yields of non-irrigated wheat and rice will be significant for a temperature increase of beyond 2.5°C incurring a loss in farm-level net revenue of between 9% and 25% (Lal, 2007) [65]. The net cereal production in South Asian countries is projected to decline at least between 4 to 10% by the end of this century under the most conservative climate change scenario (Lal, 2007) [65]. The changes in cereal crop production potential indicate an increasing stress on resources induced by climate change in several Asian countries. As a consequence of the combined influence of fertilization effect and the accompanying thermal stress and water scarcity (in some regions) under the projected climate change scenarios, rice production in Asia could decline by 3.8% by the end of the 21 st century (Murdiyarso, 2000). In Bangladesh, production of rice and wheat might drop by 8%and 32%, respectively, by the year 2050. For the warming projections under A1FI (highest future emission trajectory) emission scenarios decreases in crop yields by 2.5 to 10% in 2020s and 5 to 30% in 2050s have been projected in parts of Asia (Parry et al., 2004) [95]. Doubled CO2 climates could decrease rice yields, even in irrigated lowlands, in many prefectures in central and southern Japan by 0 to 40% (Nakagawa et al., 2003) through the occurrence of heatinduced floret sterility (Matsui and Omasa, 2002). The projected warming accompanied by a 30% increase in troposphere ozone and 20% decline in humidity is expected to decrease the grain and fodder productions by 26% and 9%, respectively, in North Asia (Izrael, 2002) [52].

Fig 4: Hotspots of Key Future Climate Impacts and Vulnerabilities in Asia. ~ 226 ~

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Water availability and Climate Change Water is the leading input in agriculture. Development of irrigation and water management are crucial for raising levels of living in rural areas. Agriculture has to compete for water with urbanization, drinking water and industrialization. Small holding agriculture depend more on ground water compared to large farmers who has more access on canal water. Ground water is depleting in many areas of India. Marginal and small farmers are going to face more problems regarding water in future. Therefore, water management is going to be crucial for these farmers. In India, Pakistan, Nepal and Bangladesh, water shortages have been attributed to rapid urbanization and industrialization, population growth and inefficient water use, which are aggravated by changing climate and its adverse impacts on demand, supply and water quality. Kundzewicz and Do ll, (2009) reported that the impact of climate change on the quantity and quality of groundwater resources is of global importance because 1.5–3 billion people rely on groundwater as a drinking water source. IPCC report (2008) predicts that the climate change over the next century will affect rainfall pattern, river flows and sea levels all over the world. Studies show that agriculture yield will likely be severely affected over the next hundred years due to unprecedented rates of changes in the climate system (Jarvis et al., 2010; Thornton et al., 2011). In arid and semiarid areas the expected precipitation decreases over the next century would be 20% or more. ISRO after the study of 2190 Himalayan glaciers revealed that approximately 75% of the Himalayan glaciers are on the retreat, with the average shrinkage of 3.75 km during the last 15 years (Misra, 2013). Stern, (2007) revealed that Climate change-related melting of glaciers could seriously affect half a billion people in the Himalaya- Hindu-Kush region and a quarter of a billion people in China who depend on glacial melt for their water supplies. Anthony Nyong, (2005) predict that by the year 2050 the rainfall in Sub-Saharan Africa could drop by 10%, which will cause a major water shortage. This 10%decrease in precipitation would reduce drainage by 17% and the regions which are receiving 500–600 mm/year rainfall will experience a reduction by 50–30% respectively in the surface drainage. AICRPAM ‐ CRIDA the wheat crop water requirement (mm) during 1990, 2020 and 2050 are 423.7 434.6 447.9 in the same periods water requirement (million cubic meter) are 39717.8 40750.1 41990.4 2.6 5.8, and % deviation during (2020-1990) and (2050- 1990) are 2.6 and 5.8, respectively. Gupta and Deshpande, (2004) reported that India where the population is increasing in an unprecedented rate is likely to be water scarce by 2050. The water requirement in India by 2050 will be in the order of 1450 km3, which is significantly higher than the estimated water resources of 1122 km3 per year. Therefore to meet the shortfall requirement, it is necessary to harness additional 950 km3 per year over the present availability of 500 km3 per year. The estimated irrigation return flow (RF) from the surface and groundwater irrigation is likely to be 223 km3 per year in the year 2050 for higher population growth rates giving 133 km 3 per year. The total recyclable wastewater is estimated to be 177 km3 per year in 2050. Aldaya et al., (2010) reported that the restoration of soil quality to improve green water is a prudent strategy. In

addition to having lower opportunity cost, the use of green water to increase agronomic production has lesser environmental externalities compared with the use of blue water involving irrigation through canal or ground water. Monaghan et al., (2013) [87] revealed that precision irrigation can be used in conjunction with the concept of regulated deficit irrigation (RDI) or partial root zone drying (PRD). Three challenges of using micro-irrigation are (i) monitoring variable/heterogeneous soil moisture content by using electromagnetic induction and near-infrared systems mounted on unmanned aerial vehicles; (ii) measuring plant-water status and regulating irrigation through it by using high resolution and high frequency remote sensing technology; and (iii) applying variable rate of water irrigation. Guo et al.,(2002) [38] studied the climate change impacts on the runoff and water resources with the GIS (geographic information system) and pointed out that runoff is more sensitive to precipitation variation than to temperature increase, and integrated water resources management can help mitigate climate change. Reported that climate change can reduce 64% of mean annual stream-flow owing to the decreased precipitation; meanwhile, precipitation is more sensitive for the catchment stream-flow than potential evapotranspiration. Alcamo et al., (2007) [6] found that average water availability will increase and high runoff events will occur frequently, which can be a threat to food production in Russia. Mirza, (2007) [83] reported that climate change will increase the frequency of floods and droughts in South Africa. Fischer et al., (2007) [32] concluded that mitigated climate can reduce by about 40% impacts on agricultural water requirements in comparison to unmitigated climate. De Silva et al., (2007) [24] concluded that average paddy irrigation requirements will increase by 13-23%. Thomas, (2008) [120] showed that nter annual climatic variability has great effects on future cropping conditions. Eitzinger et al., (2003) [27] showed that the factors which affect the soil water balance also have influences on sustainable crop production and water resources in agriculture. Holden and Brereton (2006) [44] reported that although higher levels of irrigation can obtain higher yields, farmers need to prevent higher irrigation led high runoff for some of the heavier soil. Gosain et al., 2006) [37] on river runoff in various river basins of India indicate that the quantity of surface runoff due to climate change would vary across river basins as well as sub-basins in the 2050s.This may lead to severe drought conditions in the future. Shukla et al., (2004) [105] reported that the groundwater demand is projected to increase to 980 million cubic meters (MCM) in the 2050s, needing extra power to pump out water at about 100 gigawatt hour (GWh) electricity per billion cubic meters (BCM) groundwater. In order to meet the groundwater demand, intensive development of groundwater resources, exploiting both dynamic and static potential, will be required. (Annual Report, NIH, 2008-09) revealed that in Ladakh, Zanskar and the Great Himalayan ranges of Jammu and Kashmir are generally receding, and the glacier volume changes range between 3.6% and 97%, with the majority of glaciers showing a degradation of 17%–25%.

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Fig. 5(a): Change in precipitation towards

Fig 5(b): Change in Evapo-transpiration (crop water 2030s with respect to 1970s. demand) towards 2030s with respect to1970s.

revealed that the effect of climate change on water balance, distribution of water yield and evapotranspiration it may be noticed that the increase in the water yield is more for those areas where the increase in ET is less. The increase in water yield has been up to about 50% for some areas of Indus River for the 2030s. The annual rainfall in the Himalayan region is likely to vary between 1268±225.2 and 1604±175.2 mm in 2030s. The projected precipitation is likely to increase by 5% to 13% in 2030s with respect to 1970s. Currently, the frequency of rainy days is more in east and North East India and less over western India. Projections for 2030s however indicate that the frequency of the rainy days is likely to decrease in most parts of the country Figure 5a & 5b. Climate change on carbon sequestration in agricultural lands While it is natural to expect precipitation patterns to be impacted by climate change, soil processes are also heavily affected. This is because changes in temperature and precipitation influence water run-off and erosion, affecting soil, organic carbon and nitrogen content and salinity in the soil. This in turn has a major impact on the biodiversity of soil micro-organisms. These parameters are very relevant to soil fertility. Kirschmbaum showed that global warming will have the effect of reducing soil organic carbon by stimulating decomposition rates. At the same time increasing CO2 can also have the effect of increasing soil organic carbon through net primary production. Naresh et al., (2013) [91] revealed that the low SOC content is due to the low shoot and root growth of crops and natural vegetation, the rapid turnover rates of organic material as a result of climate change and fauna activity. Song et al., (2011); Naresh et al., (2015) [92] revealed that compared to conventional tillage (CT), zero-tillage and permanent raised beds (PRB) could significantly improve the SOC content in cropland. Frequent tillage under CT easily exacerbate C-rich macro-aggregates in soils broken down due to the increase of tillage intensity, then forming a large number of small aggregates with relatively low organic

carbon content and free organic matter particles. Free organic matter particles have poor stability and are easy to degradation, thereby causing the loss of SOC. Sequestration of carbon in soils may potentially mitigate the negative effect of global warming on agriculture. Intensified rice based cropping systems consume more inputs and thereby release more CO2 and sequester less carbon in soil (Bhatia et al., 2011). Naresh et al., (2015) [92] reported that average SOC concentration of the control treatment was 0.54%, which increased to 0.65% in the RDF treatment and 0.82% in the RDF+ FYM treatment. Compared to F1 control treatment the RDF+FYM treatment sequestered 0.33 Mg C ha-1 yr-1 whereas the NPK treatment sequestered 0.16 Mg C ha -1 yr-1. Lal, (1994) [67] reported that the total potential of SOC sequestration through restoration of degraded soils in India is 10-14 Tg C yr-1. Carbon contained in the biomass of the climax vegetation is in the order: tropical rainforest > temperate forest > temperate deciduous > boreal forest > tropical woodland > temperate woodland > tropical grassland > temperate grassland > desert scrub > tundra and alpine meadow (Lal et al., 1999) [70]. Lal (1989) [72] estimated that widespread adoption of conservation tillage on soil in 400 million ha cropland by the year 2020 may lead to Csequestration of 1481 to 4913 Tg (1 Tera gram = 10 12 g). It is estimated that agricultural intensification in India results in C sequestration of about 12.7 to 16.5 Tg yr -1. Researchers reported that there was also a potential of sequestration of secondary carbonates; especially in irrigated soils, at about 21.8 to 25.6Tg C yr-1 .The total potential of a SOC sequestration in India of 77.9 to 106.4 Tg yr -1 (92.2 ±20.2 Tg yr-1). Of this potential, 12.9% is through restoration of degraded soils and 45.6% through erosion prevention and management, 15.8% through agricultural intensification and 25.7% through secondary carbonates (Bhattacharya 2007) [17]. Lou et al., (2012) [78] found that tillage and residue management can greatly influence soil C: N ratio. The latter is an important soil quality indicator which reflects the soil C: N interaction and is also affected by soil management. Soil C: N ratio varies widely depending on the type of organic materials

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and climatic conditions, and is directly related to the C: N ratio of the crop biomass that is added to the soil. Therefore, appropriate soil and crop management strategies which increase SOM input or decrease the mineralization rate of SOM are crucial to C: N dynamics (Al-Kaisi et al., 2005) [7]. and Mishra et al., (2010) [85] showed that the influence of tillage systems on SOC and total N storage can vary with the soil depth, cropping system, site specific characteristics and climate. (Lal, (2007) [65] revealed that the conventional or plow tillage (PT) may have some beneficial impacts including temporary reduction in soil compaction, plowing under of crop residues, and control of weeds. However, PT also aggravates soil erosion, off-site transport of nutrients, loss of soil organic matter (SOM) and decline of soil quality. Derpsch et al., (2014) [23] reported that important factors affecting SOC dynamics in the soil include precipitation, soil temperature, soil texture, soil microbe, tillage, fertilization, irrigation, residue management, root growth, landscape position and the slope aspect. Found that tilling a previously untilled soil quickly reversed nearly all the previously recorded gains by disrupting aggregates and exposing carbon molecules to microbial attack. Syswerda et al. (2011) [118] demonstrated that soil carbon levels at depth in no-till systems versus other tillage systems from other similar trials may suggest the carbon accrued in these systems is largely due to physical protection, maintaining the same tillage regimen is important to ensuring that carbon remains sequestered. Luo et al., 2010 [80]; Virto et al., 2012; Powlson et al., (2014) [99] concluded that the rates of SOC stock increase from reduced or zero tillage in the IGP (0.3 Mg C ha-1 yr-1,and zero tillage can have some value as a climate change mitigation strategy in some situations but its impact varies greatly between sites. Helgason et al., (2014) [42] found that the rate of residue decomposition, and hence SOC accumulation, is more sensitive to environmental conditions (temperature, moisture) for surface-applied residues, as in CA, than for those that are incorporated. Whether or not SOC increases produced by residue retention constitute climate change mitigation depends on the alternate fate of the residues under conventional practice. If the alternative is burning in the field, as is often the case in rice–wheat systems in the western IGP, then any retention of residue-derived C in soil in a CA treatment, however small, is C that would otherwise have been emitted to the atmosphere during burning: in this situation the SOC increase represents genuine climate change mitigation. Contribution of agricultural activities to climate change Thornton and Lipper (2013) reported that agriculture contributes 30-40% of anthropogenic GHG emissions. Threequarters of agricultural GHG emissions occur in developing countries, and this share may rise above 80% by 2050 (Gebreegziabhe et al., 2014) [33]. IPCC, (2007d) reported that various management practices in the agricultural land can lead to production and emission of nitrous oxide, range from fertilizer application to methods of irrigation, tillage and cattle. Amdu, (2010) [10] revealed that farmers widely used huge amount of chemical fertilizer to boost their product and considered as one of the main activities to adapt climate change. Parry et al., (2004) [95]; IPCC (2007b) indicated a probability of 10-40% loss in crop production in India with increase in temperature by 2080- 2100. Aggarwal and Mall (2002) [2]; Aggarwal (2003) [54]; Samra and Singh (2004) [104] indicate the possibility of loss of 4-5 million tonnes in wheat production with every rise of 1°C increase in temperature in India would coincide with 2020-30 period and wheat crop

matured earlier by 10-20 days. Hocking and Meyer (1991) [43] revealed that increase in temperature the nutritional quality of cereals and pulses may also be moderately affected which, in turn, will have consequences for nutritional security of several developing countries where cereals are the primary diet and decline in grain protein content in cereals could partly be related to increasing CO2 concentrations and temperature. Nagarajan et al., (2010) [89] showed that elevated nighttime air temperature (NTATs), in the range of 21–32 ◦C, significantly and adversely affected production parameters, including yields, pollen germination, spikelet sterility, respiration rates ,amylose content, and chalk formation of field grown rice. Ignaciuk and Mason-D'Croz, (2014) [47] revealed that climate change currently decreases the yield of maize, rice, wheat, potatoes and vegetables and continue to reduce seriously by 2050 globally. Agriculture as a solution for climate change Lal, (2011) [73] reported that the organic C in the surface 1 m alone is three times the amount of C in atmospheric CO 2. Land-use changes — especially clearing of natural vegetation to expand the area used for crop production — have significantly depleted global soil C stocks and contributed to increased CO2 emissions. Smith et al., (2008) assessment of climate change mitigation of 5.5–6 Gt CO2 e yr–1, with economic potentials in the range 1.5–4.3 Gt CO2 e yr–1 depending on the assumed carbon price. These values can be misunderstood to imply a very large mitigation potential within cropped land. In fact 36% of the total estimate is from the restoration of degraded land to its natural state and reflooding of organic soils that are now under cultivation. Although re-flooding of organic soils is desirable for carbon sequestration, it is only likely to be practicable on small areas and the area of productive land that could be removed from agricultural production is limited as it represents a trade-off against the goal of global food security Smith et al., (2013) [110] . The IPCC (2007a) projected that temperature increase by the end of this century is expected to be in the range 1.8 to 4.0°C. For the Indian region (South Asia), the IPCC projected 0.5 to 1.2°C rise in temperature by 2020, 0.88 to 3.16°C by 2050 and 1.56 to 5.44°C by 2080, depending on the future development scenario (IPCC 2007 b). Bandyopadhyay et al., (2008); Aggarwal, (2008) [3] showed that as far as the 2080 scenario is concerned, the mean maximum temperature during Kharif is projected to rise in the range of 2.54-3.75 ºC while the mean minimum temperature is projected to rise by 2.34 to 3.25 ºC. The increase is projected to be higher in western and southern parts of the region. During the Rabi season, an increase in mean maximum temperature is projected to be in the range of 2.75 to 3.5 ºC while an increase in the mean minimum temperature is projected to be in the range of 3.29-3.6 ºC. A change in the minimum temperature is almost uniform in the entire region, except for western parts of Etah, Ghaziabad and Aligarh (Figure 6 & 7). Lobell et al., (2008) [77] indicated that the farming systems and farmers will differ enormously in their capacities to respond to climate change. Differentiated adaptation strategies and enhanced climate risk management support to agriculture and farming households are critical to counter the impacts of climate change. These adaptation measures could include in particular the choice and change of species and varieties, the adaptation of the field works to the calendar (more flexibility), the adaptation of plant production practices (i.e. fertilization, plant protection, irrigation, etc.) or the adoption of plant production practices that increase the

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soil organic matter content. Revealed that the help of the right farming practice agriculture could be the main solution for climate change by mitigation and adaptation response. Within the current and projected situation of climate change globally, only climate change mitigation is not enough so long term

solution is important by combining climate change adaptation in agriculture sector. Such practices could be conservation agriculture, precision water and nutrient management, and agro-forestry practice etc.

Fig. 6: Mean maximum temperatures during Kharif season for the baseline period (1969-1990) and projected increase in temperature (°C) from baseline in A2-2080 and B2-2080 scenarios in the study region

Fig. 7: Mean minimum temperatures during Kharif season for the baseline period (1969-1990) and projected increase in temperature (°C) from baseline in A2-2080 and B2-2080 scenarios in the study region

Aggarwal et al., (2010) [4] reported that improved variety, better management of nitrogen and water and increased nitrogen application is projected to benefit the rice crop in this region even under climate change scenarios. Even after all these adaptations, the rice crop in Bulandshahr, Ghaziabad and Meerut is vulnerable to climate change. It may be noted that the application of additional nitrogen is particularly in the

context of farmers who are applying less than the recommended dose of fertilizer. Also, in the future climate scenarios, an increased loss of nitrogen due to volatilization and other factors like additional but balanced fertilizer input is anticipated. This also helps in reaping the benefits of carbon fertilization effects.

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Fig. 8:Adaptation gains due to a) improved variety b) improved variety with better nitrogen and water management and c) improved variety and better nitrogen and water management with additional nitrogen fertiliser and net vulnerability in respective adaptation situations for wheat crop in A2- 2080 and B2-2080 scenarios in the Upper Ganga River Basin.

In general, inspite of the adaptation strategies, some parts of the region (southern parts for wheat and western and northern hilly parts for rice) may still be vulnerable under the A2

scenario. Hence it is important to devise a comprehensive ‘no regret’ adaptation strategy to overcome the adverse impacts of climate change

Strategy

A2-2080 B2 -2080 Rice Maximum gain likely to be upto 12% Maximum gain likely to be upto 12% Change in variety Projected gains for most parts of the study region upto Projected gains for most parts of the study 3% region lie in the range of 1- 3% Gains due to this strategy can be upto 18% Maximum gains upto 21% Better management of nitrogen and water Projected gains for the study region ranges from 1Projected gains for most parts of the study with current variety 6% with progressive increase from South to North region lie in the range of 2-4% Adaptation benefits upto 15% Improved variety and better nitrogen and Most beneficial strategy as it can yield benefits upto Most beneficial strategy for the study region water management with additional 21%Most parts of the study region likely to have as 11 -15% benefits projected for the nitrogen fertilizer projected gains above 7% complete study region Wheat The strategy can yield benefits upto 5% Maximum yield gains expected upto 5% Change in variety Yield benefits projected to be less than 3% in most Yield benefits between 1-3% expected in the parts of the study region study region Maximum benefits expected upto 9% Improved variety with better Adaptation gains can be upto 9% Most areas of the study region likely to have gains in management of nitrogen and 3- 9% gains expected for most parts of the the range of 3-6% with progressive decrease towards water study region the northern region Improved variety and better Maximum increase likely to be upto 18% Most parts of the study region likely to get 6 nitrogen and water management with 4-9% of gains expected in most parts of the study 12% gains however the maximum limit additional nitrogen fertilizer region expected is upto 27%

The impacts of climate change on agricultural production are divided into primary impacts and secondary impacts. The primary impacts refer to the changes in the composition of the atmosphere due to increased greenhouse gases, which include the change in crop growth response and the change in energy and moisture balance in the farmland. The secondary impacts caused by the change in agricultural climate resources affected by the primary impacts include the shift in suitable places for cultivation and physical and chemical changes in agricultural soil. The flow of the impacts of climate change on

the agricultural sector can be illustrated as shown in
. The positive impacts of global warming include the increase in crop productivity due to fertilization effect caused by the increase in carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere, expansion of the areas available for production of tropical and/or subtropical crops, expansion of two-crop farming due to the increased cultivation period, reduction of damages of winter crops by low temperature, and reduction of heating cost for agricultural crops grown in the protected cultivation facilities
.

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Source: Kim, Chang-Gil and et al., (2009), Fig. 9a: Flow of the climate change impact on the agricultural sector

Fig. 9b: Potential impacts of global warming on agricultural sector

Negative impacts of global warming include reduced crop quantity and quality due to the reduced growth period following high levels of temperature rise; reduced sugar content, bad coloration, and reduced storage stability in fruits; increase of weeds and harmful insects in agricultural crops; reduced land fertility due to the accelerated decomposition of organic substances; and increased soil erosion due the increased rainfall. In addition, each crop requires different climate and environmental conditions to grow. So, if climate change like temperature rise occurs, the boundary and suitable areas for cultivation move north and thus the main areas of production also change. The change in the main areas of production might be as a crisis for certain areas but might be an opportunity for other areas, so it cannot be classified either as a positive or as a negative impact. In sum, the impacts of climate change on the agricultural sector have ambivalent characteristics of positive impacts creating opportunities and of negative impacts with costs. Therefore, it is very important to formulate adaptation strategies that can maximize the opportunities and minimize the costs that will lead to sustainable agriculture development. Conclusion Enhancing the resilience of agricultural production to climate change, therefore, is critical for ensuring water and food security for all, particularly the resource poor small and marginal farmers of Uttar Pradesh, India. Climate change impacts on crop yield are often integrated with its effects on water productivity and soil water balance. Climate change impacts on agriculture are being witnessed all over the world, but countries like India are more vulnerable in view of the huge population dependent on agriculture, excessive pressure on natural resources, and poor coping mechanisms. Global warming will influence temperature and rainfall, which will directly have effects on the soil moisture status and groundwater level. In the absence of planned adaptation, the consequences of long-term climate change on the livelihood security of the poor could be severe. Climate resilient agriculture (CRA) encompasses the incorporation of adaptation and resilient practices in agriculture which increases the capacity of the system to respond to various climate-related disturbances by resisting damage and ensures quick recovery. With temperature increasing and precipitation fluctuating, water availability and crop production will

decrease in the future. Soil evaporation and plant transpiration will be changed with climate change; thus, water use efficiency may decrease in the future. Resilience is the ability of the system to bounce back and essentially involves judicious and improved management of natural resources, land, water, soil, and genetic resources through adoption of best bet practices. Environmental impacts were assessed on improved soil carbon sequestration, groundwater recharge, vegetation and measurements of GHG emissions which were correlated with exante assessment of carbon balance and overall contribution to global warming potential. References 1. Aggarwal PK. Impact of climate change on Indian agriculture. J Plant Biology2003; 30:189-198. 2. Aggarwal PK, Mall RK, Climate change and rice yields in diverse agro-environments of India. II. Effect of uncertainties in scenarios and crop models on impact assessment. Climate Change 2002; 52:331-43. 3. Aggarwal PK. Global climate change and Indian agriculture: impacts, adaptation and mitigation. Indian J. Agric. Sci. 2008; 78(10):911-919. 4. Aggarwal PK, Kumar Naresh S, Pathak H. Impacts of Climate Change on Growth and Yield of Rice and Wheat in the Upper Ganga Basin, IARI, New Delhi, 2010. 5. Aldaya MM, Allan JA, Hoekstra AY, Strategic importance of green water in international crop trade. Ecol. Econ. 2010; 69:887-894. 6. Alcamoa J, Droninb N, Endejana M, et al. A new assessment of climate change impacts on food production shortfalls and water availability in Russia. Global Environ Change, 2007; 17:429-44. 7. Al-Kaisi MM, Yin X, Licht MA, Soil carbon and nitrogen changes as influenced by tillage and cropping systems in some Iowa soils. Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. 2005; 105:635-647. 8. Amarasinghe UA, Shah T, Anand BK. India’s Water Supply and Demand From 2007; 2025-2050: Businessas-Usual Scenario and Issues. www.iwmi.cgiar.org/NRLP %20 Proceeding2%20Paper%202.pdf 9. Amarasinghe UA, Singh OP, Changing consumption patterns of India: implications on future food demand. In: Amarasinghe, U.A., Shah, T., Malik, R.P.S. (Eds.),

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