Climate change impact

Ambio

Electronic Supplementary Material This supplementary material has not been peer reviewed.

Title: Climate change impact assessments on water resource of India under extensive human interventions Authors: C. G. Madhusoodhanan, K. G. Sreeja, T. I. Eldho

Climate change impact assessments on water resource of India under extensive human interventions 1. Climate The climate regimes in India vary widely from tropical wet and dry to sub-tropical humid, arid and semi-arid to montane alpine. The spatial distribution of precipitation in the subcontinent is highly heterogeneous with high inter and intra annual variability. The average annual rainfall is about 1100 mm with high spatial variability, the wet areas showing lesser annual variability than the dry areas. The major source of water for the country is the southwest monsoons also called Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) during JuneSeptember, which contributes about 75% of the annual rainfall in the country. The seasonal variations in precipitation is provided in Supplementary Figure S1.

Figure S1 Seasonal and regional variations in the distribution of precipitation in India a) annual precipitation (mm) b) number of rainy days/year, c) Southwest monsoon precipitation (% of total annual), d) Northeast monsoon precipitation d) Winter precipitation e) Summer precipitation. Analysis based on Gridded precipitation data from Indian Meteorological Department at 0.25 degree resolution from 1980 to 2010. (Map projection: WGS84 UTM Zone 43 N) 2

2. Water resources Assessments in India The earliest water resources assessment for entire India was carried out by Irrigation Commission of India during 1901-1903. Due to the non-existence of river gauge data, they had resorted to many assumptions in the estimation of the water resources of the country. They had mainly relied on runoff coefficients to convert observed rainfall into runoff. This study was followed by Khosla’s assessment in 1943 which used empirical equations derived based on observation in some of the basins. The official assessment which is still in use is the one conducted by the Central Water Commission - the Reassessment of Water Resource Potential of India -1993. This study derives the annual average water availability from the then available river gauge records. The water consumption data is derived based on assumptions based on population and available irrigation ayacut/river diversion data. The surface water potential thus derived is provided in Table S1. Table S1 Surface water potential of major river basins in India No

River Basin

Catchment Area

1 2

Indus (up to Border) Ganga- Brahmaputra-Meghna a) Ganga b) Brahmaputra c) Barak & Others 3 Godavari 4 Krishna 5 Cauvery 6 Subernarekha 7 Brahamani & Baitarni 8 Mahanadi 9 Pennar 10 Mahi 11 Sabarmati 12 Narmada 13 Tapi 14 West flowing rivers From Tapi to Tadri 15 West flowing rivers From Tadri to Kanyakumari 16 East flowing rivers between Mahanadi& Pennar 17 East flowing rivers between Pennar & Kanyakumari 18 West flowing rivers of Kutch and Saurashtra including Luni 19 Area of inland drainage in Rajasthan 20 Minor river draining into Myanmar & Bangladesh Total (Source: CWC, 2015) 3

Average Utilisable Water Surface Resources Water Potential Resources km2 km3 km3 321289 73.31 46 861452 194413 41723 312812 258948 81155 29196 51822 141589 55213 34842 21674 98796 65145 55940 56177 86643 100139 321851

525.02 537.24 48.36 110.54 78.12 21.36 12.37 28.48 66.88 6.32 11.02 3.81 45.64 14.88 87.41 113.53 22.52 16.46 15.1

250 24 76.3 58 19 6.8 18.3 50 6.9 3.1 1.9 34.5 14.5 11.9 24.3 13.1 16.5 15

36302

31 1869.37

690.1

Figure S2. Growth of number of large dams completed in India during the 20th century. Post 1970s is observed to have rapid increase in number of dams/reservoirs. The time of completion of construction of about 200 dams are yet to be recorded in the register of large dams in India (Data source: CWC, 2015) 3. Energy Table S2 Energy source and sector wise consumption in India (Mtoe*) Source/Sector

Coal Natural Petroleu Electricit and gas m y/power lignite products Agriculture 0.16 9.51 12.12 Industry 111.8 1.90 25.42 20.97 Transport 1.25 73.99 1.22 Residential 2.61 23.46 14.71 Commercial 1.05 1.24 5.62 Other energy uses 4.3 0.84 6.35 3.55 Non-energy uses 11.24 19.66 Total 116.1 19.05 159.63 58.19 32.9 5.4 45.2 16.5 Percent (%) (Source : TERI,2015) *Mtoe – Million tonnes of oil equivalent.

4

Total Percent consumptio (%) n 21.79 6 160.09 45 76.46 22 40.78 12 7.92 2 15.07 4 30.9 9 100 353.01 100

Table S3. Source wise electricity production and sector wise electricity consumption in India Energy Production Consumption Source % Sector Thermal 61 Industry Hydro 15 Domestic Renewables 13 Agriculture Gas, Diesel. Nuclear 11 Others Total 100 Total (Data source: CEA, 2015) -Year of reference 2014-15

(%) 42 24 18 16 100

Figure S3 Growth of source wise power generation capacity in India. (Data: CEA, 2015)

Figure S4 Changes in power consumption pattern in India. (Data: CEA, 2015) 5

4. Land

Figure S5 Growth of irrigated agriculture in India (1950-51 to 2012-13) (Data source: Directorate of Economics and Statistics) 5. Energy-Land-Water-Climate (ELWC) Nexus The nexus approach has evolved globally as a strategy to address several sustainable development challenges and risks that arise out of the interconnections between different resources such as land, water, energy, food, biodiversity, minerals etc. (Andrews-Speed et al., 2012). Climate change that exerts additional pressures and increases vulnerability of these resource systems is also now considered in many nexus analyses (Hoff, 2011). The cluster of issues that are analysed in a particular nexus is case-specific and would depend on the strength of the interlinkages between the issues considered and the analytical and policy priorities and perspectives (United Nations, 2013). Some of the resource clusters that have been considered in global research and policy agenda include the water–energy–food security (WEF) nexus (Allouche et al., 2014), the water, energy, land and food (WELF) nexus (Ringler et al., 2013; Giampietro et al., 2014), the climate-land-energy-water--development (CLEWD) nexus (United Nations, 2013) and several other combinations. We have considered here the nexus of energy, land, water and climate (ELWC) that has confounded and complicated the assessment of climate change impacts on water resources of India. There are multiple cross-linkages between the energy, land, water and climate components of the ELWC nexus that result out of human interventions. Figure S6 illustrates the prominent one to one linkages among the components of the nexus. Most often, these links interconnect more than two components of the nexus and have a reciprocal and cascade effect, creating complex cross-linkages between multiple components of the nexus. The energy sector is a major consumer of water and land resources in the country both in the production process and for waste disposal (Bhushan et al., 2015a). Water is required for cooling of thermal and nuclear power plants, for coal benefaction and effluent disposal and for power production 6

itself in hydro-electric projects (Bhushan et al., 2015b; Ghose, 2001; Sundararajan and Mohan, 2011). Land is consumed for mining of raw material for coal and nuclear power plants, for situating these power plants and as submergence area of hydro-electric power plants that often involve loss and fragmentation of prime forest lands and valuable biodiversity (Pandit and Grumbine, 2012). Even the non-conventional energy options that have come up as Clean/ Sustainable Development Mechanism (CDM/SDM) measures to combat climate change such as solar/wind farms and biofuel cultivation put additional pressure on the other nexus components (Purohit and Fishcher, 2014; Ravindranath et al., 2011). Conversely, water and land resources development and use have impacted the energy sector. The pumping of water for meeting the agricultural, domestic and industrial requirements, water treatment plants and its conveyance are highly energy intensive activities (Mukherji et al., 2012). The landuse changes such as increase in groundwater irrigated area (Mukherji et al., 2012) and increased urbanisation have also put huge toll on the energy demands (Can et al., 2009). The land and water sectors themselves are interlinked through irrigated agriculture that has affected the hydrology of rivers in the country, degraded water quality through nonpoint pollution, depleted aquifers and increased saline water intrusion into the coastal aquifer systems (Bobba, 2002; CPCB, 2015; Sherif and Singh, 1999; Sophiya and Syed, 2013). Increased landuse changes into urban regions are also affecting water resources through increased demands and pollution loads (McDonald et al., 2011). On the other hand, over use of irrigation water has affected land through salinization and waterlogging (Ritzema et al., 2008).

Figure S6 Prominent linkages in the ELWC nexus in India- the linkages to water resources highlighted 7

The interfaces of these nexus components to climate has contributed to global and regional climate change in terms of augmented greenhouse gas emissions through landuse changes, increased energy production and use that also include emissions from reservoirs. Atmospheric influences of the nexus also involve changed ET fluxes as a result of extensive deforestation and irrigation and increased evaporation from reservoir surfaces (Asokan et al., 2010; Asokan and Destouni, 2014; Douglas et al., 2009). The changing climate had impacted the other nexus components through changes in water demand and water availability that in turn affects the use of land, increased frequency of extreme events such as floods and draughts that then impacts the land and water resource availability and use (Doll et al., 2012; Taheripour et al., 2015; Taylor et al., 2013) . The rising sea levels can affect coastal land and water through increased flooding and saline intrusion into the aquifers (Sherif and Singh, 1999). Additionally, the changing climate impacts the nexus through demand shifts in the energy sector and the significant water and land costs of alternative energy options to combat climate change.

References Allouche, J., C. Middleton, and D. Gyawali. 2014. Nexus Nirvana or Nexus Nullity? A dynamic approach to security and sustainability in the water-energy-food nexus. STEPS Working Paper 63, Brighton: STEPS Centre. Andrews-Speed, P., R. Bleischwitz, T. Boersma, C. Johnson, G.Kemp, and S. D. VanDeveer. 2012. The global resource nexus: the struggles for land, energy, food, water, and minerals. Technical Report. Washington, DC: Transatlantic Academy. Asokan, S. M. and G. Destouni. 2014. Irrigation effects on hydro-climatic change: Basinwise water balance-constrained quantification and cross-regional comparison. Surveys in geophysics 35(3), 879–895. doi:10.1007/s10712-013-9223-5 Asokan, S. M., J. Jarsj¨o, and G. Destouni. 2010. Vapor flux by evapotranspiration: Effects of changes in climate, land use, and water use. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 115. doi:10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000006 Bhushan, C., A. Kumarankandath, and N. Goswami. 2015a. The state of concentrated solar power in India: A roadmap to developing solar thermal technologies in India. Technical report, Centre for Science and Environment, New Delhi. Bhushan, C., P. Bhati, S. Kumar, A. Sangeetha, S. Siddhartha, S. Ramanathan, and A. Rudra. 2015b. Heat on power: Green rating of Coal-based Power Plants. Technical report, Centre for Science and Environment, New Delhi. Bobba, A. G. 2002. Numerical modelling of salt-water intrusion due to human activities and sea-level change in the Godavari Delta, India. Hydrological Sciences Journal 47(S1), S67–S80. Can, S., V. Letschert, M. McNeil, N. Zhou, and J. Sathaye. 2009. Residential and transport energy use in India: Past trend and future outlook. Technical Report. Berkeley, CA: Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. CEA. 2015. Growth of electricity sector in India from 1947-2015. Technical report, New Delhi: Central Electricity Authority, Government of India.

8

CPCB. 2015. Water Quality of Rivers at Interstate Borders. Technical Report. New Delhi: Central Pollution Control Board, Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change, Govt. of India. CWC. 2015. Water and related statistics. Technical report, New Delhi: Central Water Commission, Govt. of India. Dӧll, P., H. Hoffmann-Dobrev, F. Portmann, S. Siebert, A. Eicker, M. Rodell, G. Strassberg, and B. Scanlon. 2012. Impact of water withdrawals from groundwater and surface water on continental water storage variations. Journal of Geodynamics 59(60), 143– 156. Douglas, E., A. Beltr´an-Przekurat, D. Niyogi, R. Pielke, and C. Vӧrӧsmarty. 2009. The impact of agricultural intensification and irrigation on land–atmosphere interactions and Indian monsoon precipitation A mesoscale modeling perspective. Global and Planetary Change 67(1), 117–128. Ghose, M. 2001. Design of cost-effective coal washery effluent treatment plant for clean environment. Journal of Scientific and Industrial Research 60(1), 40–47. Giampietro, M., R. J. Aspinall, J. Ramos-Martin, and S.G.F. Bukkens. 2014. Resource accounting for sustainability assessment: The nexus between energy, food, water and land use. Routledge, 2014. Hoff, H. 2011. Understanding the nexus. Background paper for the Bonn2011 Nexus Conference: The Water, Energy and Food Security Nexus. Stockholm: Stockholm Environment Institute.http://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/globalsdreport/ McDonald, R. I., I. Douglas, C. Revenga, R. Hale, N. Grimm, J. Gr¨onwall, and B. Fekete. 2011. Global urban growth and the geography of water availability, quality, and delivery. Ambio 40(5), 437–446. Mukherji, A., T. Shah, and M. Giordano. 2012. Managing energy-irrigation nexus in India: a typology of state interventions. IWMI-Tata Water Policy Research Highlight. Gujarat: IWMI-Tata Water Policy Programme. http://www.iwmi.cgiar.org/iwmitata/PDFs/2012 Highlight-36.pdf Accessed 30 November 2015. Pandit, M. K. and R. E. Grumbine. 2012. Potential effects of ongoing and proposed hydropower development on terrestrial biological diversity in the Indian Himalaya. Conservation Biology 26(6), 1061–1071. Purohit, P. and D. Fischer. 2014. Second generation biofuel potential in India: Sustainability and cost considerations. Technical report, Denmark: UNEP Risø Centre on Energy, Climate and Sustainable development. Ravindranath, N., C. S. Lakshmi, R. Manuvie, and P. Balachandra. 2011. Biofuel production and implications for land use, food production and environment in India. Energy Policy 39(10), 5737–5745. Ringler, C., A. Bhaduri, and R. Lawford, 2013. The nexus across water, energy, land and food (WELF): potential for improved resource use efficiency? Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 5(6), 617-624. Ritzema, H., T. Satyanarayana, S. Raman, and J. Boonstra. 2008. Subsurface drainage to combat waterlogging and salinity in irrigated lands in India: Lessons learned in farmers fields. Agricultural Water Management 95(3), 179–189.

9

Sherif, M. M. and V. P. Singh. 1999. Effect of climate change on sea water intrusion in coastal aquifers. Hydrological Processes 13(8), 1277–1287. Sophiya, M. S., and T. H. Syed. 2013. Assessment of vulnerability to seawater intrusion and potential remediation measures for coastal aquifers: a case study from eastern India. Environmental earth sciences, 70(3), 1197-1209. Sundararajan, M. and A. Mohan. 2011. A study on the impact of coal washery effluents along Damodar river stretch in Dhanbad District Jharkhand, India. International Journal of Engineering and Management Sciences 2(4), 233–245. Taheripour, F., T. W. Hertel, B. N. Gopalakrishnan, S. Sahin, J. J. Escurra, et al. 2015. Agricultural production, irrigation, climate change, and water scarcity in India. In 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California, Number 205591. Agricultural and Applied Economics Association & Western Agricultural Economics Association. Taylor, R.G., B. Scanlon, P. Döll, M. Rodell, R. Van Beek, Y. Wada, L. Longuevergne, M. Leblanc, et al. 2013. Ground water and climate change. Nature Climate Change, 3(4), 322-329. doi:10.1038/nclimate1744 TERI. 2015. TERI Energy and Environment Data Diary and Yearbook 2014/15. Technical report, New Delhi: Energy Research Institute. United Nations. 2013. Global Sustainable Development Report – Executive Summary: Building the Common Future We Want. New York: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Division for Sustainable Development.

10