Mapping of and Policy Orientation for Adaptation FAO Workshop November 19th-21st 2009. Budapest
Climate change impacts and adaptation in agriculture
Márton Jolánkai SIU Crop Production Institute
The World’s climate has not been constant. We know, it has gone through dramatic past changes, but there is an increasing evidence that human activities are altering our climate at an unprecedented rate.
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Climate change facts
The Greenhouse Effect Incoming Energy Reflected Energy
Outgoin g Energy Energy Trapped by Greenhouse Gases
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Global temperature change (1860-1999) relative to 1961-1990 average temperature
Trends in CO2 concentrations for past 1000 years (parts per million by volume, ppmv)
Source: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) (http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/)
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The Carpathian Basin
According to IPCC A2 scenario Hungary may face 3-3,5 oC temperature rise, and -5 - +5 %-os precipitation changes by the end of the 21st century in comparison with 1961-1990 period.
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Average temperature changes in East Europe 2
warm 1,5 1
year -
2000
-
1900
-
1800
-
1700
-
1600
-
1400
-
1300
-
1200
-
1100
-
1000
-
900
800
-
mean temperature
0
1500
1,5 oC interval
0,5
-0,5 -1 -1,5 -2
„Little glacial”
cold
oC VargaVarga-Haszonits, Haszonits, 2003. www. www.vahava.hu vahava.hu
Changes in the annual precipitation of Hungary 900
mm
800 700 600 500 400 300
y = - 0,8313x + 2223,9
200 100 0 1900
'10
'20
'30
'40
'50
'60
'70
'80
'90
2000
trend
Varga-Haszonits, 2003,
[email protected]
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Biological carbon fluxes
Photosynthesis
chlorophyll
carbondioxide + water + energy = carbohydrate + oxigen
nCO2 nO2
nH2O light
(CH2O)n
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Respiration
stomata
organic matter + oxigen = carbondioxide + water + energy
(CH2O)n
nO2
nCO2
nH2O
energy
The system
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A key to the system
A sink-source budget CO2 fluxes Fossil fuel burning
GtC
Sink
Source
5.6
x
Land use
0.6-2.6
x
Photosynthesis
100-120
x
Respiration
40-60
x
Organic decomposition
50-60
x
Ocean net uptake
1.6-2.4
x
Approx. 1.8-5.2 GtC CO2 surplus yearly
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Options for adaptation and mitigation
Reduce CO2 emissions; means limit sources
Increase CO2 uptake; means improve sinks
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The negative effects of climate change can be limited by changes in crops and crop varieties, improved watermanagement and irrigation systems, adapted planting schedules and tillage practices, and better watershed management and land-use planning. Deforestation processes should be stopped, and deforested areas be converted into vegetation complexes or arable systems of CO2 sink pattern.
Carbon sequestration by soil management and land use Birkás-Gyuricza, 2003
Reduced tillage
Birkás-Gyuricza, 2003
Direct drilling Lal, 2004
Birkás-Gyuricza, 2003
Cover crops
Contour cropping
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Production of high CO2 sink pattern crop species
Sugar cane
Potato
The Earth’s lungs
Gyuricza, 2002
Tropical rainforest (Ashanti, West Africa)
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Deforestation Gyuricza, 2002
Jungle clearing
Gyuricza, 2002
Banana plantation Gyuricza, 2002
Low yield rice
Gyuricza, 2002
Soil erosion
Rainforest remediation
Olive palm intercropping in banana plantation
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Some promising facts offered by science
Veisz, 2003
Plant breeding
Afforestation
Tuba, 2003
Advanced monitoring
Tuba, 2003
Biodiversity
Conclusion
The Global carbon cycle results in a positive budget annually. Increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration can only be mitigated by reducing C sources and increasing C sinks at the same time.
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Improved management techniques and practices may offset 1/3-1/4th of annual CO2 increase. On the other hand, energy based on fossil fuel combustion should be controlled Globally. Green ecoanarchism obstructing the use of nuclear-, water- and wind energy should be prosecuted internationally.
Energy cropping
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EU obligations
The „Green Book” predicts 12 % renewable energy use for 2010. The 2001/77/EC directive predicts 22.1 % renewable energy input in electricity. The 2003/30/EC directive presents attempts in the field of alternative motor fuels.
Structure of primenergy consumption in Hungary 1400 1200 1000
PJ
800 600 400 200 0 1970
1975 coal
1980 oil
gas
1985 nuclear
1990
1995
electr.imp
2000
2005
renewable
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Contribution forecast estimates of renewable energy % 40 35 30 25 low high
20 15 10 5 0 water
wind
solar
biomass
geothermal
Biomass energy potential in Hungary Total available biomass PJ
Energy potential PJ
Forestry Main products Byproducts Energy plantations
160 140 20
62 56 6 75
Crop production Main products byproducts
780 410 370
132-265 40-80 92-185
Total
940
269-402
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Photosynthetic carbon sequestration
Energy crops
Biomass
Ethanol
•Forestry •Grass •byproducts
•Root/tuber crops •Grain crops •byproducts
Diesel •Oilseed rape •Sunflower
Net energy balance of biofuels, Source: PNAS 2006
biomass
ethanol - sugarbeet
ethanol - wheat
ethanol - corn
diesel (bio)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
NEB ratio; energy MJ/MJ
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Net production costs of oil based and biofuels*, 2009
1,2 1
USD/l
0,8 max min
0,6 0,4 0,2 0 petrol
ethanol (bio)
diesel (bio)
* 40-50 USD/barrel price; energy equivalent = 0,66 ethanol, 0,91 diesel
Mv 454 maize hybrid
a high starch yielding crop variety for efficient ETBE production
Nagygombos experimental site 2006
Maize crop with an average 65 % starch content is highly suitable for bioethanol production. Starch content of some cultivars have been slightly increased by recent plant breeding projects. The Szent István University Crop Production Institute has recently started a new research on exploring the most characteristic agronomic impacts (biological bases, production sites, plant nutrition and crop year effects) influencing the efficiency of maize starch based bioethananol and so ethyl-tertiary-butyl-ether (ETBE) production. The aim of the research is to observe, identify and quantify agronomic impacts and their interactions that may have an influence on production efficiency and stability.
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Starch content of maize hybrids 75
Nagygombos, 2006
74
starch %
73 72 Mv 500
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Mv 454 Gazda
70
Norma
69
Maraton Mv 251
68 control
80N
120N
Mv 500
Mv 454
Gazda
Norma
Ethanol yield of maize hybrids Nagygombos, 2006
Maraton
Mv 251
370
380
390
400
410
min l/t
Grain crops Barley - (Hordeum vulgare L.) Maize - (Zea mays L.) Oat - (Avena sativa L.) Rye - (Secale cereale L.) Sorghum - (Sorghum bicolor L.) Sudan grass - (Sorghum vulgare P.v. sudanense) Triticale - (x Triticosecale) Wheat - (Triticum aestivum L.) Legumes Lupine - (Lupinus spp.) Soybean - (Glycine max L.) Oilseed crops Hemp - (Cannabis sativa L.) Oil seed rape - (Brassica napus L.) Sunflower - (Helianthus annus L.) Root and tuber crops Artichoke - (Heliantus tuberosum L.) Chicory - (Cichorium intybus L.) Potato - (Solanum tuberosum L.) Sugar beet - (Beta vulgaris L.) Energy grasses Chinese reed (-silver grass)- (Miscanthus spp.) Fescue grass - (Festuca arundinacea L.) Polygonum - (Polygonum sachalinensis F. Schmidt) Reed grass - (Phalaris arundinacea L.) Rye grass - (Lolium perenne L.)
420
430
440
450
ethanol yield l/t max l/t
Energy crops Potential energy crops for Hungary (Source: Fogarassy 2000)
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Agri-environmental suitability grading of Hungary
3.5 million ha arable land is required in Hungary to replace fossil motor fuels. Also extra costs would reach an estimated 10.75 billion USD/year. (in case of 48 USD/barrel oil prices).
Don’t forget 1 l petrol equivalent ethanol requires cca 3,1 kg maize grain. That amount of corn would provide 1 week alimentation for an average Dagomba family.
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To impair any impacts of climate change regarding food security, carbon sequestration and energy cropping, thorough training of stakeholders is scheduled Research Education Extension
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