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Energy Procedia 00 (2017) 000–000 Energy (2017) 000–000 592–597 EnergyProcedia Procedia138 00 (2017)
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2017 International Conference on Alternative Energy in Developing Countries and Emerging Economies 2017 AEDCEE, 25-26 May 2017, Bangkok, Thailand 2017 International Conference on Alternative Energy in Developing Countries and Emerging Economies 2017 AEDCEE, 25-26 May 2017, Bangkok, Thailand
Climate The Change observations intoonHydropower in Cooling Mozambique 15th International Symposium District Heating and Climate Change observations into Hydropower in Mozambique a,b* a the heat demand-outdoor a Assessing the feasibility of using Miguel M. Uamusse
, Mohammad Aljaradin , Erik Nilsson, Kenneth M. Persson
temperature a,b* for a long-terma district heat demand forecast Miguel M.function Uamusse Mohammad Aljaradin , Erik Nilsson, M. Perssona Lund University,,Department of water Resources Engineering, 22100, Kenneth Lund, Sweden a
a,b,c
I. Andrić
Eduardo Mondlane University, Faculdade de Engenharia, Maputo, Mozambique
b
a b c *,Lund A.University, Pinaa, Department P. Ferrão , J.Resources Fournier ., B. Lacarrière , O. Le Correc of water Engineering, 22100, Lund, Sweden a
Eduardo Mondlane University, Faculdade de Engenharia, Maputo, Mozambique
b
a Abstract IN+ Center for Innovation, Technology and Policy Research - Instituto Superior Técnico, Av. Rovisco Pais 1, 1049-001 Lisbon, Portugal b
c
Veolia Recherche & Innovation, 291 Avenue Dreyfous Daniel, 78520 Limay, France
Systèmes Énergétiques et Environnement - IMTby Atlantique, 4 rue Alfred change Kastler, in 44300 Nantes, France Hydropower is a renewable energy that expected to be affected persistent climate Mozambique. Variability of Abstract Département climate e.g. temperature and precipitation will contributors to future shortage of energy from renewable energy production especially for hydropower and biomass. This researchtoreviews the impacts of climate change on the productions ofVariability hydropower Hydropower is a renewable energy that expected be affected by persistent climate change in Mozambique. of in Mozambique. Furthermore, a statistical methods using regressions analysis was used to evaluate the future climate scenario. climate e.g. temperature and precipitation will contributors to future shortage of energy from renewable energy production oC; this means that the Abstract C and last change 10 yearsonwas The result for showed that the and average temperature in firstreviews 10 years 25.4oof especially hydropower biomass. This research thewas impacts climate the 26.3 productions of hydropower oC. The temperature was increasing significant especial the between October-March in rainy gradient of temperature was 0.88 in Mozambique. Furthermore, a statistical methods using regressions analysis was used to evaluate the future climate scenario. season and coincident is summer season. Alsointhe showed change will was cause variability of District heating networks are commonly addressed inresult the years literature as one most effective solutions for means decreasing the oclimate oC; this C of andthe last 10 years 26.3increased that the The result showed that the average temperature first 10 was that 25.4 precipitation and emissions create drought which is pre-conditions problems for decreasing hydroelectric generation in Mozambique. With oC.building greenhouse gas from the sector. These systems require high investments are returned throughintherainy heat gradient of temperature was 0.88 The temperature was increasing significant especial thewhich between October-March frequency with trend ofand precipitations, Mozambique is onechange of thedemand most countries ofdecrease, climate sales. Due to the flood changed climateseason. conditions renovation heat in theincreased future could season anddrought, coincident iscombining summer Also the building result showed that policies, climate will vulnerable cause variability of change. It was concluded that Mozambique hydropower productions will have to face challenging future. in Mozambique. With prolonging the investment return period. precipitation and create drought which is pre-conditions problems for decreasing hydroelectric generation The main scope of flood this paper isby to Elsevier assess feasibility of using the heat demand – outdoor function for heat demand frequency combining with the trend of precipitations, Mozambique is one of the temperature most vulnerable countries of climate © 2017 Thedrought, Authors. Published Ltd. forecast.It The district of that Alvalade, located in Lisbon (Portugal), was used to asface a case study. The district is Energy consisted of 665 change. was concluded Mozambique hydropower productions willInternational have challenging future. Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the 2017 Conference on Alternative in Keywords: Climate change; hydropower;period renewable energy; Mozambique buildings that vary in both construction and typology. Three weather scenarios (low, medium, high) and three district Developing Countries and Emerging Economies. renovation scenarios were developed (shallow, intermediate, deep). To estimate the error, obtained heat demand values were Keywords: Climate hydropower; energy; Mozambique compared with resultschange; from a dynamic heat renewable demand model, previously developed and validated by the authors. The results showed that when only weather change is considered, the margin of error could be acceptable for some applications * Corresponding author : Tel. +46 462224538; Fax: +46 462224445 (the error in annual demand was lower than 20% for all weather scenarios considered). However, after introducing renovation Email address:
[email protected] scenarios, the error value increased up to 59.5% (depending on the weather and renovation scenarios combination considered). author : Tel. +46increased 462224538;onFax: +46 462224445 * Corresponding The value of slope coefficient average within the range of 3.8% up to 8% per decade, that corresponds to the Email address:
[email protected] decrease in the number of heating hours of 22-139h during the heating season (depending on the combination of weather and renovation scenarios considered). On the other hand, function intercept increased for 7.8-12.7% per decade (depending on the coupled scenarios). The values suggested could be used to modify the function parameters for the scenarios considered, and improve the accuracy of heat demand estimations.
© 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. Peer-review under responsibility of the Scientific Committee of The 15th International Symposium on District Heating and Cooling. Keywords: Heat demand; Forecast; Climate change
1876-6102 © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. Peer-review under responsibility of the Organizing Committee of 2017 AEDCEE. 1876-6102 © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. 1876-6102 © 2017responsibility The Authors.ofPublished by Elsevier Ltd. of 2017 AEDCEE. Peer-review under the Organizing Committee Peer-review under responsibility of the Scientific Committee of The 15th International Symposium on District Heating and Cooling. 1876-6102 © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the 2017 International Conference on Alternative Energy in Developing Countries and Emerging Economies. 10.1016/j.egypro.2017.10.165
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Introduction
Mozambique is located along of the coast of the Indian Ocean. The country suffers from poverty and week infrastructure. For these reasons, Mozambique is considered one of the most vulnerable countries in terms of climate change. Richard and Randall appoint that temperature and evapotranspiration be projected to increase along the Zambezi valley and in contrast way rainfall projected to decrease.The impact of this whether phenomenon will vary depending on specific region and province inside of the country. UNDP and World Bank climate change studies suggest that droughts and flood hazards will increase over more than half of the globe, in particular in tropical Africa area, where Mozambique is located [1-3]. The climate conditions may decrease perspective of advantage of hydropower project and development of the coutry. The future climate projections show that average temperature rise up to 4.6 oC between 2010-2090 [2-3]; therefore evaporations will increase in big reservoir such Cahora Bassa, Umbeluzi Massingir reservoir which will decline water level consequently. Such decline will affect the energy production and future planning for expansion which reflects on the energy invoice in the country [1-5]. According to Gilberto and Peter the electrification rate and new connections of electricity has increased in recent years up to 15%. Still, the demand is high and increasing e.g. (population and growing of industries) in the country and the government will need to find solution and one option is establish new hydropower projects. INE predict that population will increase up to 46 Million at 2040(figure 1).
Fig. 1. Projections of populations in Mozambique 1.1. Historic climate profile in Mozambique The climate in Mozambique is semi-arid, subtropical in the south, and tropical in the north. Usually affected by seasonal air circulation of the Indian Ocean, characterized by one rainy and one dry season during full year. Southern generally is drier place than the north and has most strongly variability in temperature and precipitation, the rainfall start from October to March. The annual average precipitation is 1032 mm. Rainfall varies between 1400 mm/year near the Zambezi basing to 300 mm/year in the lowlands of the southern interior, the mountainous areas can be 2000 mm of precipitations. The variability of climate in Mozambique already affecting negatively in energy sector especial in Hydropower. studies shown evidence that temperatures have increased by 0.6°C from 1960 to 2006 and 0.13°C per decade and precipitation decreased at 2.5 mm per decade. In this period rain seasons start so later, and dry period take longer time. Since 1950, the extreme weather events happening, including drought, heavy flooding events and cyclones, has increased[2, 4]. The climate change scenario in Southern African projected using GCMs models in IPCC report show the temperature will increasing between 1 to 2.8oC until 2060s and 1.4 to 4.6oC in 2090s while the precipitations decreasing [1-2].
Miguel M. Uamusse et al. / Energy Procedia 138 (2017) 592–597 Author name / Energy Procedia 00 (2017) 000–000
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2.
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Renewable energy Background and Possible Impact of climate change
The Energy Matrix in Mozambique dominated by 75% Biomass. However, the electricity is produced from hydropower and which represent 95% of contributions on the national grid. This made Mozambique one of the leading African countries of utilizing hydropower (Figure 2). Recently the government identified the potential of some important source of renewable energy (table 1). Table 1. Potential of renewable energy Renewable Hydropow Energy er Potentia l( MW) 18000
Wind energy 3900
Biomass energy 2118
Solar energy 1260
Fig. 2. Contribution of hydropower in energy mix in Africa 2. Methodology 2.1.
Statistical method using regressions analysis
Data for temperature and precipitation during the rainy season in Mozambique (October – March) were evaluated for linear trends using regression analysis based on ordinary least square fits. Analyses were done on both the full rainy season, as well as for each of the constituting months. The significances of the linear regressions were estimated based on the p-value on the slope coefficients. Only linear regression with a p-value ≤ 0.05 for the slope coefficient was accepted as significant. Linear trends were further evaluated for three periods in the data, to be able to capture whether the trends have been changing when the global climate have been subject to climate change, generally accepted to have started around the early 1970s. The periods 1912-1956, 19572012, and 1974-2012 were thus selected and evaluated separately, which respectively represent 50, 50, and 25 % of the full sample size, and all give reliable sample sizes for ordinary least square regressions. For the time series significant linear trends were established, projections were made based on these trends until 2050 and 2100. 2.2.
Comparative GCMs and statistical model
General Circulations Model (GCM) was used to evaluate the future climate scenario conditions. However, IPCC third report identifies more than 20 GCMs available to use, but for analysis in this study we select 13 GCM. GCM models selected according to AR3, 2001a and AR4, 2007 and this is in side B2(Low),A1B(Middle) and A2(higher) emission scenario such CSIRO 3.0, CGCM3.1, ECHAM5, CCSM3.0, HACDM3.
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Results and Discussions
3.1.
Statistical method using regressions analysis
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Figure 3 shows the trend in three different Period, from 1902-1957 no clear trend shown, from 1957-2012 minor trend shown, and finally from 1974-2012 it shows a significant trend. The observations in Figure 3a. shows the average of temperature in first 10 years was 25.42oC and last 10 years was 26.31oC, this mean that the gradient of temperature was 0.877oC. The temperature was increasing significant especial the between October-March in rainy season and coincident is summer season. There is great evidence for significant trends according to the time series as shown in Figure.3a and all trends are positive and happen in the last 4 decade.
Fig. 3. (a)Trends in annual mean temperature (b) projected average temperature (c) Precipitations for Oct-Mar. According to our result the precipitations has high uncertainty value as it didn’t show any significant trend that we can follow (figure 3c). However, in the study done by USAID and UNDP they indicated that precipitations will increase in all country. From our result Table 2 show that will have great increase in temperature until 3.6oC in 2100. The rain season will be more hot than today. In the period 1974-2012 it was clear temperature have increased even projected one, it mean that the temperature are rising which will increase evaporations tremendously.
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Table 2. Trends and projections of monthly average temperatures for the rainy season Current Average1 (°C)
Annual Trend 2 (°C/y)
Annual Trend 3 (°C/y)
2100 Projected Average 2 (°C)
2100 Projected Average 3 (°C) 28.34
Oct
25.78
0.009
0.029
26.56
Nov
26.68
0.016
0.024
28.07
28.83
Dec
26.53
0.016
0.023
27.97
28.56
Jan
26.42
0.015
0.013
27.76
27.53
Feb
26.4
0.013
0.016
27.53
27.82
25.91 0.015 0.019 27.27 27.58 Mar *All slope coefficients in the established trends were significant at p ≤ 0.05 (1. For the period 2002-2012 2.Linear trend from 1957-2012 3. Linear trend from 1974-2012) 3.2.
Comparative future projections based on GCM and hydropower effect
Table 1 showed the hydropower changing in Mozambique according to the future climate scenarios projected by GCM (CSIRO 3.0, CGCM3.1, ECHAM5, CCSM3.0, HACDM3). GCM also showed decreasing in water resources in 10% in Rainy season and 12% in dry season until 2020 and 18% in rain season and 20% in dry season. In this case Mozambique hydropower productions will have to face challenging future. Table 3. Future scenario of climate change effect on hydropower projects in the country. Hydropower Project Province capacity MW Plant Cahora Bassa Operations Tete 2075 Mpanda Nkuwa Project On going Tete 1500 Boroma Project On going Tete 400 Lupata Project On going Tete 612 Mavuzi Operations Manica 42 Chicamba Operations Manica 38 Curumana Operations Maputo 16 Lichinga Operations Niassa 0.75 Cuamba Operations Niassa 1.1
4.
Future capacity MW 1822 1320 352 358.56 36.92 33.44 14.08 0.66 0.968
Conclusions
Hydropower generation will be influenced by the temperature increase due to the climate change effects. The potential hydropower production will be negatively affected. Therefore, it’s expected that Mozambique hydropower productions will have to face a challenging future. The ratio of access to electrification in Mozambique is one of the lowest in the world knowing that Mozambique is one of the richest countries with different natural energy resources such as gas, coal and hydro energy. Over 80% of the rural population still depend on traditional biomass energy sources such as charcoal. The future plans of the government to combat poverty and increasing employment is to expand in using and producing energy from renewable sources e.g. Hydropower energy and solar energy. Still, the challenge is the climate change and its effects. Currently, Mozambique is selling to South Africa, Botswana and Zimbabwe the access hydropower generated in different places in the country. Declining this source will negatively affect the country economics. Mozambique is highly dependent on the energy produced from hydropower for electricity production up to 90%.
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A climate change mitigations procedures are recommended to tackle this problem. Mozambique population and energy demand is expected to increase in the future. Mozambique government is in urgent need now to expand and use the available renewable energy sources in the country e.g. solar and wind power. Furthermore, construction of new plants of hydropower and installing new technologies in the old plants will help to increase efficiency and expand the covered area with electricity. References [1] Randall, S.-F.; Francis, Y.; Hartley, W.; Harald, K.; Bernard, T.; Imasiku, N.; Arthur, C.; Boaventura, C. (2016): The vulnerability of hydropower production in the Zambezi River Basin to the impacts of climate change and irrigation development. Volume 21, Issue 5, pp 721–742.DOI: 10.1007/s11027-014-9619-7 [2]UNDP Disaster Reduction Unit, 2004. Evolution of Disaster Risk Management System: A case Study from Mozambique. Geneva: UNDP. [3] INGC, UNDP Mozambique, GRIP, (2011). Disaster Risk Assessment in Mozambique: A Comprehensive Country Situation Analysis. Available at GRIP [4] C. McSweeney, M. New, G. Lizcano (2008).The UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles. Mozambique. School of Geography and Environment—University of Oxford. Available from (10-04-2017): http://countryprofiles.geog.ox.ac.uk. [5] USAID Climate Change Adaptation in MOZAMBIQUE. Available from (10-04-2017): https://www.climatelinks.org/sites/default/files/asset/document/mozambique_adaptation_fact_sheet_feb2012.pdf [6] MER Climate Change Profile Mozambique www.kuleuven.be (13-02-20147) [7]Yamba F, Walimwipi D, Jain S et al (2011) Climate change/variability implications on hydroelectricity generation in the Zambezi River Basin. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Clim Chang 16:617–628. DOI:10.1007/s11027011-9283-0 [8] H. Hamududu and Ånund Killingtveit (2016). Hydropower Production in Future Climate Scenarios; the Case for the Zambezi River Bryman. Energies 2016, 9, 502; DOI: 10.3390 /en9070502 [9]. Philipp Stanzel and Harald Kling (2014). Future hydropower productions in Lower Zambeze under possible climate change influence. Water SA Vol.40 No. 4 October 2014. ISSN1816-7950 [10]Charles Ehrhart and Michelle Twena, (2006)-Climate Change and Poverty in Mozambique: CARE International Poverty-Climate Change Initiative. Background report
