CREATE Research Archive Research Project Summaries
2010
Constructing Urban Vulnerability Index for U.S. Coastal Cities Haydar Kurban Howard University,
[email protected]
Mika Kato Howard University,
[email protected]
Follow this and additional works at: http://research.create.usc.edu/project_summaries Recommended Citation Kurban, Haydar and Kato, Mika, "Constructing Urban Vulnerability Index for U.S. Coastal Cities" (2010). Research Project Summaries. Paper 12. http://research.create.usc.edu/project_summaries/12
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Constructing Urban Vulnerability Index (UVI) for U.S. Coastal Cities Haydar Kurban, PI, Howard University
[email protected]
Mika Kato, Co-PI, Howard University 1. Executive Summary .............................................................................................................................................2 2. Research Accomplishments .................................................................................................................................3 2.1. Measuring Vulnerability: An Application of HAZUS Hurricane Model ........................................................3 2.2. Extension of HAZUS Model ..................................................................................................................................4 2.3. Estimating Structure Loss Rates for Housing Types ..............................................................................................5 2.4. Insurance Coverage in Alabama, Louisiana, and Mississippi.................................................................................6 3. Applied Relevance ...............................................................................................................................................8 3.1. Measuring Vulnerability...................................................................................................................................8 3.2. Vulnerability Measure and Structure Loss Rates..............................................................................................9 4. Collaborative Projects ........................................................................................................................................10 5. Research Products ..............................................................................................................................................10 5.1. Publications and Reports ................................................................................................................................10 5.2. Presentations...................................................................................................................................................11 5.3. Models, Databases, and Software Tools and Products .........................................................................................11 6. Education and Outreach Products............................................................................................................................12
This research was supported by the United States Department of Homeland Security through the National Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events (CREATE) under award number 2010-ST-061-RE0001. However, any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations in this document are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect views of the United States Department of Homeland Security, or the University of Southern California, or CREATE.
Haydar Kurban and Mika Kato, Howard University –Constructing Urban Vulnerability Index (UVI) for U.S. Coastal Cities
1. Executive Summary The goals of the research project at Howard University has been to (a) develop an empirical methodology to measure and rank vulnerability of various population groups in disaster prone areas; (b) incorporate local socio-economic factors and potential uncovered losses into overall vulnerability measures; (c) enable policy makers to make informed decisions on how to allocate scarce public sources to minimize the risks and reduce negative economic impact of disasters on various population groups. In particular, the research project at Howard University used vulnerability as a key concept in understanding the extent of the damage caused by extreme events (natural or man-induced), people’s ability to recover. This project builds on CREATE efforts to develop Urban Vulnerability Index (UVI) to evaluate the social and economic vulnerability of U.S. coastal cities. The Howard University research team has improved the urban vulnerability measure developed by Kurban and Kato (2009) by incorporating HAZUS hurricane model into the empirical methodology of urban vulnerability measure. The research team has successfully combined private and public insurance data with housing and household characteristics data. The research team has created a data matrix of structural coverage rate by housing and household characteristics. These data have been combined with physical damage loss rate data and disaster strength data obtained from HAZUS hurricane model. The revised urban vulnerability measure estimates and ranks uninsured structure losses for given housing structure type, household characteristic, exposure to disaster and disaster strength. This method can easily be extended to other hurricanes and disasters. The empirical methodology and results of this research is presented in a new working paper entitled “An application of HAZUS hurricane model”. Results of the Howard University research project have led to a new vulnerability measure that quantifies household level uncovered losses. Our method was applied to real-world disaster damage data obtained from FEMA’s HAZUS model and physical damage loss rate s were estimated for housing structures of various types. These data were combined with household characteristics and home insurance coverage data from public and private sources. By incorporating the HAZUS loss functions into the empirical methodology of urban vulnerability measure, the Howard University research team is able to obtain more accurate estimates of uninsured structural losses. The results indicated the importance of coverage rates of property insurance. Deductions and other insurance coverage exemptions may mitigate moral hazard issues but it also has unintended consequences for those in lower economic status. Our research shows that, in dollar terms, expensive housing structures have more structure losses but when uncovered property losses are measured in terms of loss rates or shares of structure value, those in lower income status have significantly higher loss rates. The urban vulnerability method developed at Howard University can easily be applied to the disasters other than Hurricanes and man-induced disasters. The researchers at Howard University have started to build an online tool that can measure and rank uncovered losses for a few pilot counties in North Carolina. When a user enter information on household characteristics, housing type, insurance coverage and disaster strength, the model will return an estimate of uncovered losses. The PI at Howard University has completed a contract agreement to consult the North Carolina Integrated Hazard Risk Management (IHRM) Program to build web-based urban vulnerability application for four counties in North Carolina.
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Haydar Kurban and Mika Kato, Howard University –Constructing Urban Vulnerability Index (UVI) for U.S. Coastal Cities
In addition, the research team at Howard University has extended the vulnerability methodology to integrate the household level resilience into the overall vulnerability measure within a Bayesian inference framework. This project builds on resilience research done by Adam Rose and others at CREATE and relates the resiliency of a local economy to the mobility of its wealth distribution. The mobility of each wealth group within the wealth distribution is reflected by the state transition probabilities. The localities with more dynamic local economies tend to have greater degree of mobility than the ones with stagnant economies. Integration of state transition probabilities have improved our vulnerability and resiliency measures in three ways: it incorporates the state and history of local economy into the analysis, it uses a well known rich data source on household assets (Panel Study of Income Dynamics or PSID), and it uses Bayesian Inference to estimate immobility threshold in each locality rather than using imperfect poverty measures. The PI at Howard University incorporated the urban vulnerability measure methodology into two undergraduate courses, Introduction to Urban Economics and the Economics of Black Community Development, taught in fall 2010 Semester and spring 2010 semester. The PI has also presented the research outcome of this project in a Freshmen Seminar course at Howard University. The PI presented the urban vulnerability measure methodology in IHRM Indirect Loss Estimation Workshop In Raleigh North Carolina (as invited guest) on February 24, 2010. Finally, this project enables the policy makers to estimate both household level vulnerability and place level vulnerability, which is defined as the aggregate of household level vulnerabilities in a place. The vulnerability measure developed and tested by this project incorporates local economic conditions, household characteristics, structure characteristics, disaster strength and exposure to disaster into one vulnerability measure. Keyword 1: urban vulnerability Keyword 2: natural disaster Keyword 3: vulnerable populations
2. Research Accomplishments
2.1. Measuring Vulnerability: An Application of HAZUS Hurricane Model
The goal of this project has been t develop an empirical methodology that measures and ranks household level vulnerability in case of natural disasters. This research builds an urban vulnerability model that predicts vulnerability of a household based on the structural type, household characteristics, disaster strength, local economic conditions and the exposure to a hurricane. Local economic conditions are studied within a Bayesian inference framework. FEMA’s HAZUS Hurricane model is used to estimate physical structure loss rates based on real-world data. The newly developed empirical methodology is flexible enough to be extended to the disasters other than hurricanes. The basic model compares the household’s pre-disaster wealth W0 with post-disaster wealth, W1. Uncovered losses are estimated as the
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Haydar Kurban and Mika Kato, Howard University –Constructing Urban Vulnerability Index (UVI) for U.S. Coastal Cities
difference between the losses to physical structure and the amount covered by property insurance. The following diagram presents the model.
2.2. Extension of HAZUS Model We estimate the residential-structure by using the HAZUS hurricane model which provides us the engineering knowledge of the relationship between the peak-gust wind speed and the structure loss rate for various types of residential building.
From HAZUS to urban vulnerability measure: HAZUS loss rate damage level market value (from U.S.Census)*structure share (from Lincoln Institute) =structure value$value of structure loss use regression to get insurance coverage rates uncovered losses from property insurance estimate uncovered losses for every wealth group aggregate household level uncovered losses to get total uncovered losses for a place
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Haydar Kurban and Mika Kato, Howard University –Constructing Urban Vulnerability Index (UVI) for U.S. Coastal Cities
2.3. Estimating Structure Loss Rates for Housing Types This project estimated the structural loss rates under a Katrina-type hurricane for one-story single family detached house (WSF1) and for two-story single family house (WSF2). We searched for the best-fitting functions that fit the HAZUS data for WSF1 and WSF2. Figure 1 presents a loss rates for the typical housing structures on the path of Hurricane Katrina. The model predicts accurately the physical structure loss rates of the typical housing structure at various wind maximum speeds. Figure 1 establishes a functional relationship between housing structure type and the disaster strength. A home owner or a policy maker can predict the physical loss rates for different maximum wind speeds. Since FEMA HAZUS model is based on sound engineering data, the loss rates are more accurate than the physical loss estimates that are derived from secondary damage information.
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Haydar Kurban and Mika Kato, Howard University –Constructing Urban Vulnerability Index (UVI) for U.S. Coastal Cities
2.4. Insurance Coverage in Alabama, Louisiana, and Mississippi Given the physical structure loss rates, our vulnerability measure estimates the uncovered structure losses for houses of different values. Figure 2 presents the insurance coverage rates for the houses of different structure values. The goal of this project has been to apply the results of basic research to the real world
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Haydar Kurban and Mika Kato, Howard University –Constructing Urban Vulnerability Index (UVI) for U.S. Coastal Cities
data. In particular, the methods developed in years 1 and 2 were applied to the real socioeconomic and physical structure damage data. Currently, the research team at Howard University is developing webbased empirical tools for general public and the policy makers.
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Haydar Kurban and Mika Kato, Howard University –Constructing Urban Vulnerability Index (UVI) for U.S. Coastal Cities
3. Applied Relevance 3.1. Measuring Vulnerability Figure 3 shows the vulnerability as measured by uncovered structure losses in LA, MS and AL. Figure 3 enables the viewer to see the dollar value of structure losses for different structure values and maximum wind speed.
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Haydar Kurban and Mika Kato, Howard University –Constructing Urban Vulnerability Index (UVI) for U.S. Coastal Cities
3.2. Vulnerability Measure and Structure Loss Rates The research done on urban vulnerability is directly relevant for home owners and other local and state stake holders to prepare and improve recovery when an area is hit by a disaster, The structure loss rate and insurance coverage rate informs the user about the level of expected damage rate and the coverage rate for structures of various values and hurricanes of different wind speed. This method can easily be extended to other types of disasters, such as earthquakes, tornados, or floods by incorporating disaster strength, structure loss rates and insurance coverage rates into the vulnerability measure. Figure 4 shows structure loss rates for different structure values and maximum wind speeds in LA, MS and AL.
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Haydar Kurban and Mika Kato, Howard University –Constructing Urban Vulnerability Index (UVI) for U.S. Coastal Cities
4. Collaborative Projects
The project on structure losses and disaster strength was greatly assisted by FEMA HAZUS model, which provides engineering based structure losses data. HAZUS loss data was used to fit structure loss rates for various housing types. Insurance coverage data from private sources, U.S. Census Bureau, Socioeconomic data from U.S. Census, and structure share of house value from the Lincoln Institute improved our vulnerability measure. Using HAZUS model has also prevented us from duplications and wasting our research time and resources. The PI has completed a contract agreement to integrate urban vulnerability methodology within the general economic modeling framework a part North Carolina Integrated Hazard Risk Management (IHRM) Project. This project develops a web-based tool for the residents and local public officials to estimate household level, business level vulnerability and local area level vulnerability in a group of counties in North Carolina.
Project Title Integrate Urban Vulnerability Methodology within the General Economic Modeling Framework
COLLABORATIVE PROJECTS Institution Contact Name State and Local Agencies URS Corporation North Carolina Integrated Becky Peer Hazard Risk (URS) Management (IHRM) Project
CREATE Lead
Haydar Kurban
Status
Ongoing
5. Research Products Research Products (Please detail below) 5a # of peer-reviewed journal reports published 5a # of peer-reviewed journal reports accepted for publication 5a # of non-peer reviewed publications and reports 5a # of scholarly journal citations of published reports 5b # of scholarly presentations (conferences, workshops, seminars) 5b # of outreach presentations (non-technical groups, general public) 5c # of products delivered to DHS, other Federal agencies, or State/Local 5c # of patents filed 5c # of patents issued 5c # of products in commercialization pipeline (products not yet to market) 5c # of products introduced to market
5.1. Publications and Reports
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#
2 1 3
PDF Available for DHS
Not Referred
Referred
CREATE PUBLICATIONS
Research Area
Haydar Kurban and Mika Kato, Howard University –Constructing Urban Vulnerability Index (UVI) for U.S. Coastal Cities
Kurban, Haydar - Howard University 1.
Kurban, H., Kato, M., “Measuring Vulnerability: An Application of HAZUS Hurricane Model”, Working Paper, 2011
EA
2.
Kurban, H., Kato, M., “Urban Vulnerability Measure”, submitted ( 2010)
EA
3.
Kurban, H., “Housing Discrimination and Segregation”, forthcoming Book Chapter, 2011
EA
x
x
x
x
5.2. Presentations
PRESENTATIONS - CONFERENCES Haydar Kurban, Howard University 1. Haydar Kurban., “Vulnerability, Resilience and Sustainability,” IHRM Loss Estimation Workshop (invited), Raleigh, NC, February 24, 2010
5.3. Models, Databases, and Software Tools and Products Prototype web-based application of urban vulnerability measure is currently under development at Howard University. The PI has completed an agreement to build a web-based urban vulnerability application for IHRM Loss Estimation project in Raleigh North Carolina. The intended users are general public and local and state stake holders. The user will enter information on household characteristics, housing type and disaster strength and estimate uncovered structure losses both in terms of dollars and loss rates.
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Haydar Kurban and Mika Kato, Howard University –Constructing Urban Vulnerability Index (UVI) for U.S. Coastal Cities
SOFTWARE PRODUCTS CREATE Project
Name of Product
Type of Product
Application Area
Intended Users and/or Clients
Economic Assessment
NC state policy makers, Howard University students
Leader(s)
Kurban
Urban Vulnerability Measure
Webbased software tool
Specific Users and/or Clients NC state policy makers
Status
Other Comments
Underdevelopment
Prototype used in a research
6. Education and Outreach Products Education and Outreach Initiatives (Please detail below) # of students supported (funded by CREATE) # of students involved (funded by CREATE + any other programs) # of students graduated # of contacts with DHS, other Federal agencies, or State/Local (committees) # of existing courses modified with new material # of new courses developed # of new certificate programs developed # of new degree programs developed
# 2 1 1 3
CREATE STUDENTS Last Name
First Name
University
School
Department
Degree
Mulusa
Judy
Howard University
COAS
Economics
Ph.D.
Miller
Alexis
Howard University
COAS
Economics
MA
Research Area Economic Assessment Economic Assessment
PRESENTATIONS - OUTREACH EVENTS Kurban, Haydar- Howard University 1. Kurban, Haydar., “Constructing Urban Vulnerability Index,” Interdisciplinary Undergraduate Research Group, College of Arts and Sciences, Howard University, Spring 2010, Fall 2010. 2.
Kurban, Haydar “Vulnerable Populations in Disaster Prone Areas,”,A week long lecture in Urban Economics II (graduate course), Spring 2010, Howard University.
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Funded √ √
Haydar Kurban and Mika Kato, Howard University –Constructing Urban Vulnerability Index (UVI) for U.S. Coastal Cities
PRESENTATIONS - OUTREACH EVENTS 3.
Kurban, Haydar, “How to Incorporate Socio-economic Factors in Vulnerability Measure”, A week long lecture in the Economics of Black Community Development (undergraduate), Spring 2010, Fall 2010.
4.
Kurban, Haydar, “How to Incorporate Socio-economic Factors in Vulnerability Measure”, A week long lecture in Introduction to Urban Economics (undergraduate), Fall 2010.
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