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Finding Color in Conformity: A Commentary on Culturally Specific Risk Factors for Violence in Australia Stephane M. Shepherd Int J Offender Ther Comp Criminol published online 24 June 2014 DOI: 10.1177/0306624X14540492 The online version of this article can be found at: http://ijo.sagepub.com/content/early/2014/06/20/0306624X14540492

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IJOXXX10.1177/0306624X14540492International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative CriminologyShepherd

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Finding Color in Conformity: A Commentary on Culturally Specific Risk Factors for Violence in Australia

International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology 1–11 © The Author(s) 2014 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.com/journalsPermissions.nav DOI: 10.1177/0306624X14540492 ijo.sagepub.com

Stephane M. Shepherd1

Abstract This article outlines the current utility of Indigenous culturally specific risk factors for violence and the ramifications for cross-cultural risk prediction. The Indigenous culturally specific violence risk factor literature has provided a rich body of contextual information outlining Indigenous patterns of criminal behaviour. This information has the capacity to facilitate offender responsivity and treatment targets in addition to assisting clinicians identify the presence of risk markers among Indigenous clients. However, if intended for inclusion in risk prediction models, culturally specific risk items then require further quantitative analysis to establish robust associations and probability estimates for recidivistic outcome. Keywords risk assessment, recidivism, risk factors, indigenous Australians, violence risk prediction

Introduction Many Indigenous Australians face enduring circumstances of disadvantage and marginalization. They are over-represented in criminal justice data and experience incarceration rates substantially higher than the general population (Australian Bureau of Statistics [ABS], 2013; Australian Institute of Health and Welfare [AIHW], 2012). Much has been reported on institutional racism and discriminatory legal processes that

1Swinburne

University of Technology, Melbourne, Australia

Corresponding Author: Stephane M. Shepherd, Forensic Psychology, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Centre for Forensic Behavioural Science, Swinburne University of Technology, 505 Hoddle Street, Clifton Hill, Melbourne, Victoria 3068, Australia. Email: [email protected]


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needlessly increase the number of Indigenous Australians in contact with the justice system. In addition, it is well documented that Indigenous Australians experience higher rates of substance abuse, exposure to violence, lower educational attainment, community disorganization, trauma, poverty, and unemployment, compared with nonIndigenous Australians (AIHW, 2011a; AIHW, 2011b; Indig, McEntyre, Page, & Ross, 2010; Nadew, 2012; Snowball & Weatherburn, 2006; Wundersitz, 2010). Although such maladaptive phenomena are commonly held to be cross-cultural precursors to antisocial behaviour, their pervasiveness within some Indigenous populations implies the potential for culturally distinctive manifestation. A developing body of thematic research defines a number of culturally specific risk items that potentially impart a unique influence on Indigenous offending trajectories. Consequently, it has been asserted that contemporary risk prediction instruments should accommodate these findings to reflect Indigenous patterns of offending.

Risk Items For several decades, the risk factor literature has identified a common body of antecedent influences tapping psychosocial and environmental aspects that increase the likelihood of antisocial behaviour (Farrington & Loeber, 2000). A regular selection of risk markers has emerged encompassing substance use, peer delinquency, low socioeconomic status, family disruption, child maltreatment, low school achievement, unemployment, and psychological disturbances including impulsivity, hyperactivity, and low empathy (Borum, 2000; Farrington, 1989; Farrington & Loeber, 2000; Gendreau, Little, & Goggin, 2006; Loeber & Hay, 1997; Smith &Thornberry, 1995). In addition, a developing body of research on protective factors has determined that a range of pro-social behaviours and activities can buffer future violent offending (Bernat, Oakes, Pettingell, & Resnick, 2012; Hoge, Andrews, & Leschied, 2006; Rennie & Dolan, 2010; Ullrich & Coid, 2011). In a seminal treatise, Andrews and Bonta (1994) proposed the cross-cultural uniformity of eight core risk factors highly correlated with criminality known as the central eight. This cluster of items includes antisocial behaviours and attitudes, peer criminality, and socio-contextual destabilizers (Andrews & Bonta, 1994). In support of this concept, a transnational meta-analysis displayed the generalizability of the central eight group of risk/need factors to North American Aboriginal offenders in the prediction of violent recidivism (Gutierrez, Wilson, Rugge, & Bonta, 2013). The regularities of conduct across the populace is illustrated by Quinsey, Harris, Rice, and Cormier (2006) who posit that “ . . . humans exhibit great similarity in many aspects of their nature” (p. 206) and “ . . . trying to treat an offender as though he were unique in any true sense would mean ignoring all relevant literature” (p. 207). In Australia, the Indigenous culturally specific risk factor literature has emerged through a combination of theoretical perspectives, focus group and case study research, local surveys, and retrospective analyses of regional socio-economic databases. Homel, Lincoln, and Herd (1999) theorized that modern Indigenous offending patterns must be viewed through meta-factors such as the federally sanctioned forced removal


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of children from their families (Stolen Generations), dependence/reliance on the state, and institutional racism that ultimately impact traditional factors such as alcohol and substance abuse, unemployment, and violence. The inter-generational trauma of colonization and the Stolen Generations initiated the disruption and dislocation for many Indigenous families and communities engendering frustration, the subtraction of authority, and a subsequent loss of identity. Moreover, widespread state control over the lives of many Indigenous Australians including paternalistic and exclusionary legislation and intrusive policing gave rise to a culture of dependence and psychological nihilism. Homel et al. (1999) proffer that contemporary maladjustment in Indigenous communities characterized by high unemployment, violence, and substance abuse should be considered in light of these historical experiential occurrences. Similarly, protective markers such as cultural resilience and family bonds are believed to provide a context for the mitigation of stress and violence through the provision of emotional support, cohesion, and the attainment of identity. Social and Emotional Wellbeing (SEWB) refers to notions of Indigenous mental health and is conceptualized in a holistic framework that encompasses mental, physical, social, and spiritual aspects (see Dudgeon, Milroy, & Walker, 2014). Although multi-faceted, SEWB is underpinned by a connection to cultural heritage that is maintained and expressed through traditional beliefs, values, and ceremonial practices within a cohesive community environment that strengthens ones spirituality. This inter-connectedness is believed to enhance the health and wellbeing of Aboriginal people. The disruption of SEWB for many Indigenous Australians is deemed to be associated with ongoing marginalization, disadvantage, discrimination, and separation from land, family, and culture, originating from colonization (Kelly, Dudgeon, Gee, & Glaskin, 2009; Raphael & Swan, 1997; Zubrick et al., 2010). These events damaged the fabric of Aboriginal society by breaking down community strength and engagement through dispossession and separation from the land that engendered the loss of traditional beliefs and subsequent spiritual connectivity (Poroch et al., 2009). The absence of SEWB through such events is deemed to be related to extreme distress, poor general health, frustration, and anger, profoundly impacting on the psychological state of many Indigenous Australians (Blair, Zubrick, & Cox, 2005; Day et al., 2008; Ferrante, 2013; Homel et al., 1999; Jones & Day, 2011; Larson, Gillies, Howard, & Coffin, 2007; Mals, Howells, Day, & Hall, 2000). Cultivating a strong cultural identity and strengthening community bonds have been identified as protective factors for Indigenous people bolstering positive coping skills, self-esteem, and resilience (Armstrong et al., 2012 ; Colquhoun & Dockery, 2012; Ferrante, 2013; Homel et al., 1999; Zubrick et al., 2010). Retrospective quantitative explorations have endeavored to examine associations between risk items and criminal outcomes for Indigenous Australians. Three investigations utilized the 2002 ABS National Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Social Survey (NATSISS) database which comprised responses from approximately 10,000 Aboriginal Australians pertaining to health and wellbeing, contact with the justice system, and social and economic circumstances. Although determining causal influence from a broad cross-sectional database that was not intended to exclusively explain


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Indigenous patterns of offending is problematic, the analyses provided a rare opportunity to analyze social circumstances and level of contact with the criminal justice system in a representative Aboriginal sample. Findings from the three investigations established that common risk factors for offending—drug and alcohol misuse, unemployment, financial stress, and early school dropout—were associated with criminal justice contact (Ferrante, 2013; Weatherburn, Snowball, & Hunter, 2006, 2008). Ferrante (2013) specifically investigated culturally specific items of risk and arrest outcome finding that items pertaining to strong cultural ties and community connectivity reduced criminal involvement. Furthermore, being a member of the Stolen Generations was also discovered to impact the likelihood of contact with the criminal justice system (Ferrante, 2013; Weatherburn et al., 2006). Following the characterization of distinct Indigenous experiential indicators, attention has now turned to the reification and incorporation of cultural specific risk items into violence risk prediction models.

Risk Instruments The utilization of contemporary violence risk assessment instruments is now commonplace in the forensic mental health discipline. A plethora of studies have validated widely employed risk inventories, the Historical, Clinical, Risk–20 (HCR-20, Webster, Douglas, Eaves, & Hart, 1997), and Level of Service Inventory−Revised (LSI-R, Andrews & Bonta, 1995) and their youth adaptations, the Structured Assessment of Violence in Youth (SAVRY, Borum, Bartel, & Forth, 2006) and the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI, Hoge & Andrews, 2006; Catchpole & Gretton, 2003; Douglas, Ogloff, Nicholls, & Grant, 1999; Flores, Lowenkamp, Holsinger, & Latessa, 2006; Schmidt, Campbell, & Houlding, 2011). The formulation of risk inventories commonly involves the assembly of salient risk factors that have a demonstrated statistical association with recidivistic outcome. Though this procedure has been labeled positivistic (Case, 2007; O’Mahony, 2009), risk prediction literature has consistently demonstrated the superior predictive ability of risk measures over subjective unstructured clinical judgment (Grove & Meehl, 1996; Grove, Zald, Lebow, Snitz, & Nelson, 2000). Risk instruments now incorporate adjustable dynamic risk factors to account for a reliance on static unchanging phenomena. The Structured Professional Judgment (SPJ) model, which includes the HCR-20 and the SAVRY, encompasses a Summary Risk Rating where the clinician adjudicates on a client’s level of risk after considering the presence and severity of risk items. Concern has been expressed over the ability of modern risk instruments to extend to ethnically diverse populations given that they were chiefly normed on Caucasian samples (Allan & Dawson, 2004; Jones, Masters, Griffiths, & Moulday, 2002). Yet although sparse, studies assessing the utility of risk instruments on Australian Aboriginal offender cohorts have, for the most part, demonstrated cross-cultural applicability (Shepherd, Luebbers, Ferguson, Ogloff, & Dolan, 2013; Thompson & McGrath, 2011; Watkins, 2011; Hsu, Caputi, & Byrne, 2010). Though similar reservations have been expressed in the North American risk assessment literature, a number of studies have


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demonstrated the predictive accuracy of the YLS/CMI and SAVRY instruments for general and violent recidivism with Aboriginal Canadian offenders (Jung & Rawana, 1999; Meyers & Schmidt, 2008; Olver, Stockdale, & Wong, 2012; Olver, Stockdale, & Wormith, 2009). Some analysts hold the view that the employment of contemporary risk instruments in Indigenous populations will mirror systematic imbalances within society and the criminal justice system (Allan & Dawson, 2002; Fitzgibbon, 2007; Martel, Brassard, & Jaccoud, 2011) given the higher rates of substance abuse, trauma, family disruption, and unemployment. Two important points require acknowledgment when considering this statement. First, as mentioned earlier, clinical intuition is laden with biases and inaccurate heuristics which are prone to discriminatory risk assessment practices and predictions. Thus, the employment of arbitrary clinical judgment in the prediction of violence risk is potentially harmful given its forecasting ability has been demonstrated to be no greater than chance (Quinsey et al., 2006). Even if armed with a deep contextual understanding of cultural offending patterns, the arbitrary use of and clinical potential for the over-generalization of this information to every Indigenous client is objectionable. Second, to presume cultural exclusivity is to ignore the significant body of established literature identifying common risk items statistically associated with violence. Doing so additionally supposes that cultural idiosyncrasies outweigh shared commonalities or add incremental predictive power over them. While this may prove to be the case, these relationships need to be examined quantitatively to support the strength of these assertions.

The Way Forward Qualitative literature has provided a rich source of ethnographic information depicting the origins of offending patterns within the Indigenous cultural milieu. The existing challenge is to statistically examine case-orientated thematic analysis. Precision in violence risk prediction ultimately relies on establishing the strength of proposed associations through the determination of probability estimates. A series of problematic circumstances arise if risk instrument construction or reconfiguration is attempted before a progression from thematic research is initiated. In any case, a lack of any quantitative evidence would typically impair the potential addition of a proposed item to a risk instrument. If incorporated into an instrument under these conditions, the potential for poor construct validity and subsequent prediction imprecision is increased. In addition, the discretionary use of quantitatively untested items in a clinical assessment would mirror previous concerns surrounding the inaccuracy of unstructured clinical judgment. The subsequent use of a scientifically untested item deemed to be culturally specific thus engenders an over-generalization of the subgroup and possible misclassification. Indigenous Australians are often described as heterogeneous, representing a variety of people speaking different languages and living in remote, rural, and metropolitan communities. Therefore, culturally modified instruments require well-founded normative empirical evidence representative of the wider cultural sub-group. Moreover, discriminating between direct and distal factors is an important step in generating an accurate model of re-offence. Indeed the


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accumulation of statistical evidence does not automatically prompt coherent or constructive inferences. Causal influences can also be overstated and inferences insufficiently explained if isolated from theoretical explanations. It is important to note that contemporary risk prediction models do not preclude the inclusion of ideographic research from its practice. First, qualitative research can inform the process of risk prediction, particularly under the SPJ model. The varying expressions of particular risk items can be accommodated within the operational definitions provided by current SPJ violence risk inventories, notably the HCR-20 and the SAVRY. For example, the SAVRY protective factor items “Pro-Social involvement,” “Strong Attachments and Bonds,” “Strong Social Support,” and “Resilient Personality” could potentially subsume Indigenous cultural protective factors from the literature such as family, community, and spiritual connectivity; participation in cultural practices; and a willingness to learn and understand cultural heritage. Undoubtedly, this item flexibility accounts for fluctuations within and across different cultural groups. Second, the idiosyncratic origins of risk factors as determined through qualitative research can assist clinicians in identifying the presence of regular violence risk factors. In these circumstances, the integration of information ascertained from theoretical notions of Indigenous risk patterns can provide a contextual understanding of the mechanisms that may underpin the initiation of risk factors. For example, a comprehension of the concept of social and emotional wellbeing and how it impacts Indigenous people could aid the clinical identification of psychosocial risk markers. Third, given that the efficacy of cultural risk factors remains equivocal, this does not mean that cultural competency in clinical service delivery for Indigenous offenders should simultaneously decelerate. Forensic risk assessment can be a challenging experience for both clinician and client requiring pragmatism and sensitivity on behalf of the clinician to ensure the wellbeing of the client. For Indigenous offenders, this is particularly critical given the historical mistrust of government health services. Culturally sensitive practices are essential to ensure that risk assessment is handled appropriately and that cultural norms are not violated (Shepherd, Adams, McEntyre, & Walker, 2014). Many Indigenous clients are uncomfortable disclosing personal information with non-Indigenous assessors, underscoring the need for the development of cross-cultural rapport (Walker & Sonn, 2010). A rudimentary knowledge of the historical experience of Indigenous Australians, extended family and community dynamics, as well as acceptable terminology may mitigate interview disconnection and aid client interpretation. Furthermore, an Indigenous community member or liaison officer may be required to initiate contact with a client prior to an assessment to “vouch” for the clinician and alleviate potential uneasiness. The liaison may even need to be present at various stages of the assessment to aid interpretation, provide support, and ensure cultural respect is adhered to. Cultural respect is an aspect of cultural competency and describes . . . when the health system is a safe environment for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples, where cultural differences are respected and where the health care system and services respect the legitimate cultural, rights, practices, values and expectations of Indigenous peoples. (Walker & Sonn, 2010, p. 161)


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Although caution is advised to not generalize these experiences and practices to every Indigenous client, it is important that clinicians are aware of the contextual experiences of Indigenous Australians, particularly when formulating treatment plans that are often holistic and involve the broader community. This capacity to improve communication in clinical risk assessment is a key development that has emerged from the Indigenous risk and rehabilitation literature.

Conclusion Several common risk factors for violence have been empirically associated with criminal behaviour in the literature. Contemporary violence risk measures are assembled this way and a developing body of studies has demonstrated their efficiency across a variety of forensic and clinical settings. Although emerging research has shown commensurate predictive ability for particular violence risk tools across ethnicity, the generalizability to cultural diverse populations is equivocal at this point in time and further testing across Indigenous populations is warranted. It is evident that qualitative groundwork has generated a robust body of literature outlining the context of Indigenous offending. This includes meaningful information on Indigenous conceptualizations of wellbeing and how the severing of this creates an internal and communal disharmony producing environments of maladjustment and criminal activity. Moreover, an understanding of Indigenous culture, norms, and traditions can improve clinical sensitivity in assessment and enlighten treatment initiatives. However, in the field of offender risk prediction, a key element of risk assessment, the advantages of quantitative methods in specifying the strengths of relationships are significant. To determine the weight of culturally specific risk factors, we need to primarily ascertain their nomothetic strength through probability estimates for recidivistic outcomes. Analysts have questioned the cross-cultural uniformity of risk factors for violence. This is an important question that merits serious contemplation and scientific rigor given the inter-generational inequity already endured by many Indigenous Australians. But before seeking to answer these questions, a strong evidence base demonstrating significant associations that generalize to the broader sub-group is recommended. Until this occurs, it is advisable that statistically unverified sub-group dissimilarities should not outweigh the long history of research identifying common individual characteristics related to recidivism. Declaration of Conflicting Interests The author(s) declared no potential conflicts of interest with respect to the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article.

Funding The author(s) received no financial support for the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article.


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Schmidt, F., Campbell, M. A., & Houlding, C. (2011). Comparative analyses of the YLS/CMI, SAVRY, and PCL: YV in adolescent offenders: A 10-year follow up into adulthood. Youth Violence and Juvenile Justice, 9, 23-42. doi:10.1177/1541204010371793 Shepherd, S.M., Adams, Y., McEntyre, E., & Walker, R. (2014). Violence Risk Assessment for Aboriginal Australian Offenders – A review of the literature. Psychology, Public Policy & Law, Advance Online Publication. DOI: 10.1037/law0000017 Shepherd, S. M., Luebbers, S., Ferguson, M., Ogloff, J. R. P., & Dolan, M. (2014). The utility of the SAVRY across ethnicity in Australian young offenders. Psychology, Public Policy, and Law, 20(1), 31-45. doi:10.1037/a0033972 Smith, C. A., & Thornberry, T. P. (1995). The relationship between childhood maltreatment and adolescent involvement in delinquency. Criminology, 33, 451-477. Retrieved from http:// web.ebscohost.com.ezproxy.lib.monash.edu.au/ehost/pdfviewer/pdfviewer?vid=3&;hid= 106&sid=ace7f451-7a7e-4fca-aa03-85199639e677%40sessionmgr111 Snowball, L., & Weatherburn, D. (2006). Indigenous over-representation in prison: The role of offender characteristics (Crime and Justice Bulletin, Contemporary Issues in Crime and Justice, Number 99). Sydney, Australia: NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research. Thompson, A. P., & McGrath, A. (2012). Subgroup differences and implications for contemporary risk-need assessment with juvenile offenders. Law and Human Behavior, 36(4), 345-355. doi:10.1037/h0093930 Ullrich, S., & Coid, J. (2011). Protective factors for violence among released prisoners—Effects over time and interactions with static risk. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 79, 381-390. doi:10.1037/a0023613 Walker, R., & Sonn, C. (2010). Working as a culturally competent mental health practitioner. In N. Purdie, P. Dudgeon, & R. Walker (Eds.), Working together: Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander health and wellbeing principles and practice (pp. 157-180). Canberra: Australian Council for Education Research. Watkins, I. (2011). The Utility of Level of Service Inventory–Revised (LSI-R) assessments within NSW correctional environments (Research Bulletin). Sydney, Australia: Corrective Services NSW. Weatherburn, D., Snowball, L., & Hunter, B. (2006). The economic and social factors underpinning Indigenous contact with the justice system: Results from the 2002 NATSISS survey (Contemporary Issues in crime and justice, Report No. 104). Sydney, Australia: NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research. Weatherburn, D., Snowball, L., & Hunter, B. (2008). Predictors of Aboriginal arrest: An exploratory study. Australian and New Zealand Journal of Criminology, 41, 216-235. doi:10.1375/acri.41.2.307 Webster, C. D., Douglas, K. S., Eaves, D., & Hart, S. D. (1997). HCR-20 assessing risk for violence. Burnaby, British Columbia, Canada: Mental Health Law and Policy Institute, Simon Fraser University. Wundersitz, J. (2010). Indigenous perpetrators of violence: Prevalence and risk factors for offending (Research and Public Policy Series No. 105). Canberra: Australian Institute of Criminology. Zubrick, S. R., Dudgeon, P., Gee, G., Glaskin, B., Kelly, K., Paradies, Y., . . .Walker, R. (2010). Social determinants of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander social and emotional wellbeing. In N. Purdie, P. Dudgeon, & R. Walker (Eds.), Working together: Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander mental health and wellbeing principles and practice (pp. 75-90). Canberra: Commonwealth of Australia.
