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CRISIL FUND INSIGHTS Monthly funds newsletter from CRISIL Research Volume – 69 January 2017

Investment thoughts

ELSS: Harness equity investments and save tax Equity linked savings schemes (ELSS) have caught investors’ fancy over the past decade. Their popularity is rooted in tax benefits (if held for three years) and the opportunity to harness potential growth in equity. The category’s assets under management increased from around Rs 8,500 crore 10 years ago to over Rs 50,000 crore in December 2016.

Performance ELSS funds (represented by the CRISIL – AMFI ELSS Fund Performance index) returned 25% p.a., on average, in the three-year rolling period since June 2001 against 17% by equity bellwethers Nifty 50 and S&P BSE Sensex over the same period. However, investors need to increase their investment horizon to derive optimum benefit. Since ELSS invests in equity, it is exposed to risks associated with the asset class especially in a shorter time horizon of three years. This is validated by the minimum return of -11% given by the category over this period, which spelt capital losses.

How do they stack up with other products? For this analysis, we have taken popular tax saving options but excluded those that are mandatory in nature (employee provident fund) or linked to a specific goal such as retirement (NPS). Except for unit linked insurance plans (ULIPs), all other popular options are fixed income-oriented, thus reducing the ability to generate high inflationadjusted returns. Characteristics Returns

Lock in period

Tax treatment

ELSS Linked to equity market returns Full amount can be withdrawn after three years from date of allotment Dividend and maturity amount are tax-free

PPF

Increase in investment horizon positive for ELSS funds 25%

Returns

Investors can nullify this risk by increasing the investment period. The chart displayed alongside shows that ELSS have given on an average 20% CAGR returns over all periods analysed. The benefit of long term investment in addition to strong returns is reduction in volatility and increased minimum returns of the category. Over a 10-year investment horizon, ELSS funds have returned minimum 10%, which is more than both the inflation rate and returns of traditional instruments (~8%).

10% -5%

-20% 3 years 5 years Average return Volatility

7 years 10 years Minimum return Average inflation

Note – ELSS funds data represented by daily rolling returns of CRISIL-AMFI ELSS Fund performance index as of December 2016, Inflation data represented by average CPI inflation during the period

NSC

Tax Saving FDs

Insurance / ULIP Market linked based on investment chosen (equity / debt)

8.0%*, compounded annually

8.0%*, compounded half yearly 6.50%^

Lock-in period is 15 years; partial withdrawal permitted after completion of six years

No withdrawal prior to maturity; but investments can be used as collateral to avail loans from banks

No premature exits permitted

No surrender charges after five years

Tax exempt at contribution, accumulation, and withdrawal

Interest income taxed at income tax slabs

Interest income taxed at income tax slabs

All gains are tax-free

*Rate notified for Q4 FY16-17; ^SBI domestic term deposit rate for sums below Rs 1 crore and maturity from five to 10 years for public

Other benefits of ELSS Professional management: Fund managers are highly experienced and trained to pick the right stocks. Diversified portfolio of stocks: Equity diversification across market capitalisation puts investors in a more advantageous position to benefit from changes in equity market sentiment. Large cap exposure helps limit loss in a market downtrend, while small and mid-cap exposure boosts performance in an uptrend. Flexibility to take SIP route: Systematic investment plans (SIPs) help capture superior returns generated by equities and minimise the risk of investing in a volatile asset class. SIP is a hassle-free and affordable way of investing in mutual funds, as it ensures regular investments at both high and low points of the market. It captures the opportunity, which is otherwise difficult to forecast, and averages the cost through rupee cost averaging and instills discipline. However, investors must note that they can claim tax benefits only if they hold ELSS investments for at least three years. For the record, every SIP installment gets locked for three years. Thus, the last SIP of a one-year ELSS will finish its lock-in period only after another one year, i.e., four years from the start of the first SIP. Summing up With the tax season right around the corner, most individuals will begin their tax planning activities in earnest. Investors with an aggressive risk profile can look at investing in ELSS to save tax. Though these funds have the least investment horizon of three years to save tax up to Rs 46,350 (at the highest tax bracket), investors should hold on to these funds longer to derive optimum benefit.

● Domestic equity benchmarks Nifty 50 and S&P BSE Sensex ended down 0.47% and 0.10%,

Market - Overview

respectively, in December, but gained 3.01% and 1.95%, respectively, in 2016.

Indices Nifty 50 S&P BSE Sensex

% Change in Dec 2016 -0.47 -0.10

% Change in Nov 2016 -4.65 -4.57

Indicators 10 year Gsec Monthly CPI Inflation

Dec 30, 2016 6.51% 3.41%

Nov 30, 2016 6.42% 3.63%

● The biggest dampener in the month was worries about the impact of demonetisation on corporate earnings. The market fell after the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) unexpected move to maintain the repo rate in its monetary policy review on December 7, 2016.

● Discouraging domestic industrial production data, increasing possibility of a delay in the implementation of Goods & Services Tax (GST) and persistent selling by the foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were a few other discouraging cues.

● Globally, concerns over prospects of a steeper-than-expected US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike in 2017, uncertainty about US President-elect Donald Trump's policies, and anxiety about the state of the European banking system also weighed on the market.



However, further losses in Indian equities were capped owing to buying from domestic institutional investors (DIIs) and strength in the rupee against the dollar. The market was also boosted by the European Central Bank's (ECB's) decision to extend its quantitative easing (QE) programme until December 2017. Most Nifty indices ended down in December 2016. Nifty Pharma index was the top laggard – down 7.34% on weak earnings outlook. Metal stocks witnessed heavy selling pressure owing to demand worries amidst slowdown in China.



Mutual Fund – Overview 175,000

16.0

125,000

15.0

75,000

14.0

25,000

(Net Flows ₹ cr)

(AUM ₹ lakh cr)

17.0

13.0

-25,000

12.0

-75,000

11.0

Net flows (RHS)

Dec-16

Nov-16

Oct-16

Aug-16

Sep-16

Jul-16

Jun-16

Apr-16

May-16

Mar-16

Jan-16

Feb-16

Dec-15

-125,000

Industry Month-end AUM

Category returns CRISIL – AMFI Large Cap Fund Performance Index CRISIL – AMFI Diversified Equity Fund Performance Index CRISIL – AMFI Small & Midcap Fund Performance Index CRISIL – AMFI ELSS Fund Performance Index CRISIL – AMFI Balance Fund Performance Index CRISIL – AMFI MIP Fund Performance Index CRISIL – AMFI Gilt Fund Performance Index CRISIL – AMFI Debt Fund Performance Index CRISIL – AMFI Short Term Debt Fund Performance Index CRISIL – AMFI Ultra Short Fund Performance Index CRISIL – AMFI Liquid Fund Performance Index Gold Funds (ETFs and FoFs)

Absolute Monthly Returns% Dec-16 Nov-16 -1.64 -5.09 -2.06 -5.01 -2.59 -6.97 -2.11 -5.75 -2.17 -2.88 -2.09 1.16 -2.70 5.20 -0.88 2.41 -0.39 1.84 0.20 1.07 0.51 0.62 -3.18 -4.82

● The Indian mutual fund industry’s quarterly average assets under management (AUM) recorded their highest percentage and absolute annual growth since the Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI) started declaring quarterly AUM in September 2010.

● The industry grew 26.29%, or by Rs 3.53 lakh crore, to a new high of Rs 16.93 lakh crore (excluding fund of funds) in the year ended December 2016. Equity and short-term debt funds were the top contributors. Average AUM grew 5.13%, or by Rs 82,610 crore, on-quarter.

● Investor confidence in equity funds has been on the rise despite subdued performance by the asset class for the second consecutive year. The category attracted inflows of Rs 96,784 crore in 2016 and Rs 1.18 lakh crore in 2015 even though equity benchmark Nifty 50 returned 3% and 4%, respectively, in the mentioned periods. The category’s assets gained 23.88% during the year to close at a record high of Rs 5.63 lakh crore in December 2016. Assets gained 4.74% or Rs 25,449 crore in the quarter ended December led by inflows, despite the Nifty 50 losing 4.94% in the same period.

Top Stock Exposures – Dec 2016

Top Sector Exposures – Dec 2016

1.

HDFC Bank Ltd.

1.

Banks

2.

ICICI Bank Ltd.

2.

Pharmaceuticals

3.

Infosys Ltd.

3.

Computers - software

4.

State Bank of India

4.

Engineering, designing, construction

5.

Larsen & Toubro Ltd.

5.

Passenger/utility vehicles

6.

Maruti Suzuki India Ltd.

6.

Refineries/marketing

7.

Reliance Industries Ltd.

7.

Cement

8.

ITC Ltd.

8.

NBFC

9.

Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd.

9.

Housing finance

10.

Indusind Bank Ltd.

10.

Auto ancillaries

New Stocks Entries and Exits in Mutual Fund Portfolios – Dec 2016 Entries

Exits

Laurus Labs Ltd.

Dredging Corporation of India Ltd.

Sah Petroleums Ltd.

Kesoram Industries Ltd.

NOCIL Ltd.

Selan Exploration Technology Ltd.

Balaji Amines Ltd.

Shivam Autotech Ltd.

Sudarshan Chemical Industries Ltd.

less sensitive to interest rate changes. Within the universe, short-term debt and ultra short-term funds assets’ increased by Rs 1 lakh crore and Rs 56,536 crore in the year to scale a new high of Rs 2.49 lakh crore and Rs 1.97 lakh crore in December 2016, respectively.

● Long-maturity debt funds’ assets posted lacklustre growth in 2016. Income funds’ assets rose 4.21% to Rs 1.08 lakh crore while gilt funds grew 2.17% to Rs 17,630 crore in the year ended December 2016. However, in the latest quarter, income and gilt funds witnessed absolute growth of Rs 10,845 crore and Rs 1,611 crore, respectively, on the back of hopes that the RBI may announce more policy easing measures. The yield on the 10-year benchmark bond eased to 6.51% by December-end 2016 from 6.96% a quarter ago and 7.76% a year ago.

● Investors continued to withdraw money from the gold ETFs category with consolidated outflows of the past four years totalling Rs 5,300 crore. The category’s average AUM fell 14.25% on-year and 20.12% on-quarter to Rs 5,181 crore in December 2016.

● AMFI bats for US’ 401 (k)-like product in budget proposals.

● Short-maturity debt funds are increasingly becoming popular as they are

Fund News



BSE launched the ‘BSE StAR MF’ mobile application and extended the cut off time for acceptance of subscription transaction of liquid funds as well as debt and equity schemes valuing at least Rs 2 lakh by half an hour on its mutual fund platform.

CRISIL Fund Rank 1 Schemes - Debt

Fund Focus

Mutual Funds' Performance Report Point to Point Returns %

Inception Date

Average AUM (Rs.Crore)

20-Jan-10

1716.18

3.54

1.68

1 3 6 1 3 Since Month Month Month Year Years Inception

Style Box

Std. Sharpe Deviation Ratio (%)

Debt Long ICICI Prudential Long Term Plan

-1.64 3.44

9.52 16.80 13.84

10.68

HDFC High Interest Fund - Dynamic Plan

-2.50 1.88

8.22 14.76 12.11

9.22

28-Apr-97

2161.44

3.29

1.29

Birla Sun Life Dynamic Bond Fund

-3.68 1.21

7.20 14.04 12.08

9.11

27-Sep-04 14603.48

3.16

1.36

-0.89 2.59

7.05 12.67 10.59

9.22

1-Jan-10

8152.56

2.32

2.43

UTI-Banking & PSU Debt Fund

0.02

6.50 11.70 NA

9.90

3-Feb-14

1267.40

1.38

3.44

IDFC Super Saver Income Fund - Medium Term

-0.43 2.22

5.52

9.93 9.53

7.72

8-Jul-03

4498.71

1.48

2.08

HDFC Gilt Fund - Long Term Plan

-3.45 1.79

8.92 16.54 13.77

8.23

25-Jul-01

3457.62

4.00

1.46

Reliance Gilt Securities Fund

-2.45 3.49

10.41 16.96 13.89

9.75

22-Aug-08

1246.40

3.93

1.51

Reliance Corporate Bond Fund

-0.70 2.00

6.35 11.15 NA

10.62

26-Jun-14

3180.65

1.72

2.46

Kotak Medium Term Fund

-0.64 1.99

6.29 11.00 NA

10.81

21-Mar-14

2918.69

1.53

2.65

JM High Liquidity Fund

0.54

1.70

3.53

7.74 8.43

8.06

31-Dec-97

5365.56

0.32

3.09

Indiabulls Liquid Fund - Existing Plan

0.55

1.73

3.61

7.87 8.48

8.90

25-Oct-11

6415.43

0.32

3.44

Tata Liquid Fund

0.52

1.65

3.45

7.57 8.29

7.41

23-May-03 3077.86

0.32

2.60

Birla Sun Life Floating Rate Fund - Long Term

0.03

2.03

4.94

9.59 9.34

9.01

30-Mar-09

5580.56

0.89

3.08

Axis Treasury Advantage Fund

0.29

1.67

3.85

8.20 8.47

8.33

9-Oct-09

2602.58

0.49

2.90

DSP BlackRock Ultra Short Term Fund

0.26

1.83

4.17

8.52

8.66

10-Mar-15

3317.27

0.61

2.87

DHFL Pramerica Short Term Floating Rate Fund

0.32

1.81

3.98

8.35 8.59

8.20

9-Oct-09

1041.92

0.58

2.71

Debt Short

3.05

Gilt

Credit Opportunities Fund

Liquid

Ultra Short Term

NA

CRISIL Mutual Fund Ranks as of September 2016

16

0

3 Months

Oct-Dec

227989

215986

HDFC Mutual Fund

221825

Reliance Mutual Fund

195845

Birla Sun Life Mutual Fund SBI Mutual Fund UTI Mutual Fund

Mutual Fund Name

11.2

11.1

10.3

14.4

6 Months

1 Years 3 Years 5 Years Period Reliance Gilt Securities Fund Category I-SEC Li-Bex

Average Assets under Management - A Bird's Eye View Jul-Sep

3.0

4

Average AUM is 3-months average number as disclosed by AMFI for the period OctoberDecember 2016

2016 2016 Change % (Rs.Crore) (Rs.Crore) (Rs.Crore) Change

8

13.7

SENSITIVITY

13.0

Low

Risk ratios for Debt Long and Gilt categories are for a period of 3 years; risk free rate: 7.68% (average T-bill auction cut off rate during the period)

12

16.6

INTEREST

Medium RATE

17.4

High

9.5

Low

18.0

Medium

3.8

High

9.9

CREDIT QUALITY

Risk ratios for Debt Short, Credit Opportunities, Liquid and Ultra Short Term categories are for a period of 1 year; risk free rate: 6.72% (average T-bill auction cut off rate during the period)

9.0

Risk Ratios are annualised

ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund

Gilt funds tend to benefit when interest rates ease, as seen in the latest one year. The 10-year G-sec yield declined to 6.44%, down 1.32% from a year ago, led by interest rate cut by the RBI (by 50 bps during the year) and downward pressure exerted by demonetisation. The fund has actively managed the interest rate risk during the period. For instance, in February 2016, when 10-year G-sec yields were in an upward trajectory at 7.78%, the fund had average maturity of 11.73 years. Conversely, in November 2016, when 10-year G-sec yields softened to 6.54%, the fund increased its average maturity to 14.24 years. Funds with a longer maturity benefit more than those with a shorter maturity in a falling interest rate scenario and vice versa. 20

Returns are annualised for periods above 1-year, other wise actualised

Oct-Dec

Performance

Chart: Performance as on January 13, 2017

Point to Point Returns are as on December 31, 2016

Mutual Fund Name

Launched in August 2008, Reliance Gilt Securities Plan is an open-end government security (G-sec) scheme that seeks to generate optimal credit risk-free returns by investing in a portfolio of securities issued and guaranteed by the central and state governments. It has been ranked CRISIL Fund Rank 1 and 2 (top 30 percentile of its peer group) for the past nine quarters ended September 2016 as per CRISIL Mutual Fund Rankings. Its average assets under management (AUM) totalled Rs 1,246 crore in the quarter ended December 2016.

3.3

ICICI Prudential Banking & PSU Debt Fund

Reliance Gilt Securities (CRISIL Fund Rank 1)

Returns (%)

Scheme Name

Note: Returns above one year are annualised

Jul-Sep

2016 2016 Change % (Rs.Crore) (Rs.Crore) (Rs.Crore) Change

12003

5.56

HSBC Mutual Fund

8670

8503

167

1.97

213086

8738

4.10

IDBI Mutual Fund

7761

8128

-367

-4.52

183129

12717

6.94

Motilal Oswal Mutual Fund

7131

6393

738

11.55

180808

168881

11928

7.06

Edelweiss Mutual Fund

6826

2256

4571

202.63

140997

131554

9443

7.18

Mirae Asset Mutual Fund

6343

5235

1108

21.16

129389

127333

2056

1.61

BNP Paribas Mutual Fund

6032

6069

-36

-0.60

Kotak Mahindra Mutual Fund

82135

70387

11748

16.69

PRINCIPAL Mutual Fund

4868

5136

-269

-5.23

Franklin Templeton Mutual Fund

75783

73666

2117

2.87

Union Mutual Fund

3056

3387

-331

-9.77

DSP BlackRock Mutual Fund

58357

49852

8506

17.06

BOI AXA Mutual Fund

2896

3636

-740

-20.35

IDFC Mutual Fund

57998

56656

1341

2.37

Taurus Mutual Fund

2339

2663

-324

-12.16

Axis Mutual Fund

49281

47179

2101

4.45

Mahindra Mutual Fund

1457

950

507

53.35

Tata Mutual Fund

38271

39691

-1420

-3.58

IL&FS Mutual Fund (IDF)

995

970

24

2.52

L&T Mutual Fund

35191

32667

2524

7.73

Peerless Mutual Fund

946

971

-25

-2.59

Sundaram Mutual Fund

27013

26700

313

1.17

Quantum Mutual Fund

858

806

52

6.48

DHFL Pramerica Mutual Fund

24807

24473

334

1.37

PPFAS Mutual Fund

676

668

8

1.19

Invesco Mutual Fund

23617

22560

1056

4.68

IIFL Mutual Fund

424

370

53

14.36

LIC Mutual Fund

18022

16453

1569

9.54

IIFCL Mutual Fund (IDF)

399

388

11

2.72

JM Financial Mutual Fund

13522

13612

-90

-0.66

Escorts Mutual Fund

286

295

-8

-2.85

Baroda Pioneer Mutual Fund

10785

11703

-917

-7.84

Sahara Mutual Fund

67

80

-13

-15.80

Indiabulls Mutual Fund

10227

6731

3495

51.93

Shriram Mutual Fund

Canara Robeco Mutual Fund

9411

9320

91

0.98

Grand Total

38

43

-5

-12.72

1693339

1610729

82610

5.13

AAUM is the quarterly average number and excludes Fund of Funds

Active management was seen in the performance of the fund, as it returned 18% in the past one year for the period ended January 13, 2017 versus 16.6% for the category (CRISIL ranked gilt funds) and 17.4% for the benchmark (I-Sec Li-Bex). It beat the benchmark and the category in the less than one-year period, but closed lower than the benchmark in the longer horizon. Since inception, the fund has returned 9.8%.

Asset allocation In the past three years ended December 2016, the fund had 96% in G-secs, and remaining in cash and cash equivalents.

Fund Managers’ Profile Mr Prashant Pimple, a B.Com and MMS, is Senior Fund Manager – Fixed Income at the fund house and has a total experience of over 17 years in capital markets. Every month, Fund Focus will feature one of the CRISIL Mutual Fund Rank 1 or 2 Schemes

Crossword Corner – boost your financial knowledge Horizontal:

1

2

4

3

5

4)

A tax saving mutual fund category with a lock-in period of 3 years (1,1,1,1)

6)

An investment in gold in electronic form (5,4)

9)

A sector impacted by the Centre's currency ban (4,6)

12) Funds released by a mutual fund house periodically, which can be paid out or reinvested (8)

Vertical: 6

9

7

10

8

11

12

1)

An investment-cum-insurance scheme with a lock-in period of 5 years (1,1,1,1)

2)

Equity markets pass through this phase when sentiment for stocks is weak (4)

3)

A rise in prices in the economy at an aggregate level (9)

5)

Periodic investment in a mutual fund at predefined intervals to tide over equity volatility (1,1,1)

7)

The tax status enjoyed by the PPF scheme (1,1,1)

8)

A proposed indirect tax regime in India (1,1,1)

10) A retirement scheme in which both employee and employer contribute a percentage of their monthly salaries (1,1,1) 11) India's securities market regulator (1,1,1,1)

Answers

Horizontal:

4) ELSS (Equity Linked Savings Scheme) 6) Paper Gold 9) Real Estate 12) Dividend

Vertical:

1) ULIP (Unit Linked Insurance Plan) 2) Bear 3) Inflation 5) SIP (Systematic Investment Plan) 7) EEE (Exempt Exempt Exempt) 8) GST (Goods and Services Tax) 10) EPF (Employee Provident Fund) 11) SEBI (Securities and Exchange Board of India)

Contact Details Deepak Mittal : +91 22 3342 8031; [email protected] Vijay Krishnamurthy: +91 22 3342 8056; [email protected] Dinesh Agarwal: +91 22 3342 3440; [email protected] Amrita Sarkar : +91 22 3342 8405; [email protected] Sandeep Tripathi : +91 22 3342 8047; [email protected] Rajnikant Tiwari: +91 22 3342 2954; [email protected]

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