energies Article
Current Situation and Future Perspectives of the Romanian Renewable Energy Stefan ¸ Drago¸s Cîrstea 1, * , Claudia Stelu¸ta Marti¸s 1 , Andreea Cîrstea 2 , Anca Constantinescu-Dobra 1 and Melinda Timea Fülöp 2 1 2
*
Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Technical University of Cluj-Napoca, 400114 Cluj-Napoca, Romania;
[email protected] (C.S.M.);
[email protected] (A.C.-D.) Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Babes-Bolyai University, 400591 Cluj-Napoca, Romania;
[email protected] (A.C.);
[email protected] (M.T.F.) Correspondence:
[email protected]; Tel.: +40-745-301-093
Received: 28 October 2018; Accepted: 23 November 2018; Published: 25 November 2018
Abstract: In 2015, Romania was the first country in Europe that achieved EU targets regarding the share of renewables in the generation mix, far ahead of the 2020 deadline. Starting with the energy structure in Romania, the paper: (1) analyses the evolution of the main indicators in the renewable energy sector, (2) discloses the perspectives of renewable energy in Romania synthesizing the main trends of development in the field, and (3) analyses the challenges facing with the development of renewable energy in Romania. Based on analyzing the exploratory data, the paper makes a preliminary prediction of the development of the sector for future decades and proposes targeted countermeasures and suggestions. Romania still has unexploited potential concerning renewable energy sources. Since Romania registered continuous economic growth, the demand for electricity is steadily growing, and this trend is expected to continue. Additionally, Romania could introduce a support mechanism for developing the potential of unexploited existing resources. The results of the present study may be useful for further research regarding public policies for the development of renewable energy. Furthermore, it can represent a useful analysis in order to identify future trends of renewable energy in Romania. Keywords: renewable energy; future perspectives; renewable energy sources; Romania energy structure; exploratory study
1. Introduction The economic development of a state depends to a large extent on its ability to create and maintain constant access to energy resources. Contemporary society is in a continuous transformation. Both the current needs and the resources necessary for their satisfaction change rapidly, causing important mutations in everyday life. Energy production sectors are exempted from continuous transformations. Every day the need for energy is growing. Energy security is the ability of a nation to deliver the energy resources needed to ensure its welfare and implies secure supply and stable prices. The decision about ensuring energy security are always taken over the long-term because it implies the implementation of large projects needing enormous investments. Energy sources can be divided into three main categories: fossil fuels, nuclear resources, and renewable energy sources [1]. Renewable energy sources can provide energy free of air pollutants and greenhouse gasses by emitting zero or nearly 0% of these gasses [2]. European Court of Auditors (ECA) reveals in a report which are the main types of renewable energy sources, relevant technologies and specific applications (Figure 1). They sustain that using
Energies 2018, 11, 3289; doi:10.3390/en11123289
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more renewable energy is crucial if the EU wants to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions to comply more renewable energy is crucial if the EU wants to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions to comply with the 2015 Paris Agreement on Climate Change [3]. with the 2015 Paris Agreement on Climate Change [3].
Figure 1. Renewable energy sources, technologies and applications; source: adapted from ECA, Figure 1. Renewable energy sources, technologies and applications; source: adapted from ECA, 2018 2018 [3]. [3].
Globally, the energy sector has a significant impact on the environment, air pollution, water, Globally, the energy sector hasemissions a significant the environment, air pollution, water, soil pollution, and on GHG or impact climateon change. Between 2009 and 2013, the soil share of pollution, and on GHG emissions or climate change. Between 2009 and 2013, the share of renewable renewable energy sources (RES) in the EU’s energy generation mix increased from 9 to 16% and it is energy sourcesto(RES) thetoEU's mix increased fromallowed 9 to 16%the and is expected to fuel expected growinup 20%energy by 2020generation [4]. RES progress since 2005 EUit to cut its fossil growuse up by to 20% [4]. RES progress allowed the the EU last to cut its fossil fuel use progress by 11% has 11% by and2020 its GHG emissions bysince 10% 2005 in 2015 [5]. Over decade, significant and its GHG emissions by 10% in 2015 [5]. Over the last decade, significant progress has been made been made in the energy sector in Romania to limit the environmental impact. However, considerable in theefforts energy sector in Romania to limit the environmental impact. However, considerable efforts arebased are still needed for the energy sector to contribute to Romania’s transition to an economy still needed for the energy sector to development. contribute to Romania's transition to an economy based on the on the principles of sustainable principlesJudicious of sustainable development. value, energy resources contribute significantly to: (1) economic and social development, Judicious value, energy of resources contribute significantly to: (1)strategic economic and social (2) improving the standard living of the population, and (3) managing challenges/surprises. development, (2) improving the standard of living of the population, and (3) managing strategic Overall, energy supply is essential, given that any gap in energy supply can have significant negative challenges/surprises. Overall, energy supply is essential, given that any gap in energy supply consequences on both socio-economics and the public. Romania fulfills the first condition ofcan energy have security, significant negative consequences on both socio-economics and the public. Romania fulfills the holding important energy resources that can support integrated cycles in certain industrial first condition energy security, important energy resources that can support integrated branches. of Theoretical potentialholding of RE largely exceeds all other energy forms [6]. In order to meet the cycles in certain industrial branches. Theoretical potential of RE largely exceeds all other energy world’s demand, an important factor that contributes to harvesting energy from renewable sources formsand [6].toInuse order the world's ansustainable important energy factor that contributes advancement to harvesting[7–9]. themtoasmeet the source of new,demand, clean, and is technological energy from renewable sources and to use them as the source of new, clean, and sustainable energy The shift to renewable energy is mandatory given that fossil fuel supplies 85.77% of the primary energy is technological advancement [7–9]. The shift to renewable energy is mandatory given that fossil fuel consumption of the world [10,11]. Nowadays, a significant percentage (25.4% in 2014) of the total supplies 85.77% of the primary of energy the world [10,11]. a significant energy production in the EUenergy comes consumption from renewable sources [12].Nowadays, In Romania, with more than percentage (25.4% in 2014) of the total energy production in the EU comes from renewable energy 30% of its total electricity demand coming from RES [13], renewable energy production is significantly sources [12]. In [14]. Romania, with more than 30% of its total electricity demand coming from RES [13], increasing renewableRomania energy production is significantly increasing [14]. has rich and varied renewable energy resources: biomass, hydropower, geothermal Romania has rich and varied renewable energy resources: biomass, hydropower, potential, wind, concentrated solar power (CSP), and photovoltaic energy. Theygeothermal are distributed potential, wind, the concentrated power (CSP), photovoltaic energy. are distributed throughout country andsolar can be exploited on and a wider scale as soon as theThey performance-price ratio of throughout the country and can exploited on abewider scaleby as maturing soon as the performance-price ratio technologies improves. Thisbelevel will only achieved new generations of equipment of technologies levelhas willadvanced only be achieved byamaturing new generations equipment and relatedimproves. facilities. This Romania the use of significant part of the windofand photovoltaic and related facilities. Romania has advanced the use of a significant part of the wind and photovoltaic energy potential. Evaluating the main renewable energy sources can be underlined that the least energy potential. theismain renewable be same underlined the least and harmful to theEvaluating environment considered windenergy energysources [15,16]. can At the time, itthat is sustainable harmful to the environment is considered wind energy long-lasting, pollution-free, and eco-friendly [17–19].[15,16]. At the same time, it is sustainable and long-lasting, pollution-free, and eco-friendly [17–19]. With a share of 24.7% in 2015, Romania has already achieved its 2020 target (24%) for renewable energy due, in particular, to the size of its hydropower sector, which is responsible for about one
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With a share of 24.7% in 2015, Romania has already achieved its 2020 target (24%) for renewable energy due, in particular, to the size of its hydropower sector, which is responsible for about one third of the installed power generation capacity, but also the evolution of wind energy (9.4% of the energy generated in 2014) and the use of biomass for heating (16.6% of final energy consumption) [20]. As an EU member state, Romania must achieve the target established by the EU that binds the member states to reach a share of at least 27% of renewable energy in its gross final energy consumption [5]. The objectives of the article are: (1) to outline the energy structure in Romania; (2) to present the evolution of the main renewable energy indicators in Romania; (3) to discuss the perspectives of renewable energy in Romania when Romania intends to participate in achieving the European targets for reducing CO2 emissions; (4) to indicate the challenges facing with the development of renewable energy in Romania; and (5) to predict the development of renewable energy in Romania and propose targeted countermeasures and suggestions. The paper aims to present an overview of the different types of renewable energy resources, their current and future states, their share in different economic sectors, and their benefits. This study contributes to the existing body of knowledge in several ways. First, this paper is one of the first contributions to the existing literature which shapes, in one review article, an overview of the Romania energy sector, the impact and the development of renewable energy in Romania, and outlines the future perspectives of this important economic sector. Secondly, this study is the first attempt to investigate the overall renewable energy in Romania after the publication of Energy Strategy of Romania 2016–2030 with the perspective of 2050, in the context of achieving the European Union Climate change targets and UN Sustainable Development Goals. 2. Energy Structure in Romania To have a complete overview of the Romanian energy structure, we choose to analyze the evolution of the main energy indicators in comparison with other six former communist countries who are also members of the EU. All the countries’ EU accessions were between 2004 and 2007, but they have a different level of development. Romania has become an extremely exciting country in terms of investment after EU accession. This is also due to the economic growth registered by this country over the last period. The Romanian economy grew by 7% in 2017, compared to 2016, the largest increase since 2008. In 2008, the Romanian economy grew by 7.1%, in real terms, compared to 2007. In 2016, the Romanian economy grew by 4.8% and, in 2015, the Romanian economy advanced by 3.9%. Though it can be observed that Romania’s gross energy consumption declined significantly after 1990, reaching 377 TWh in 2015, equivalent to about 19 MWh per capita, and the final energy consumption was 254 TWh. The modeling results estimate gross energy consumption in 2030 to 394 TWh (a 4% increase) and final energy demand to 269 TWh (a 6% increase). Consumption of energy resources as raw material is set to increase by 35% (6 TWh), while energy consumption and losses will decrease by 4 TWh. The analysis of final energy consumption in 2015 (total 254 TWh) by type of energy consumption brings to the fore the heating and cooling needs, estimated at 97 TWh (39%)—of which 76 TWh in households and 21 TWh in the services sector (Figure 2). The consumption in industrial processes (48 TWh) and in passenger transport (48 TWh) are the next ranked in descending order. The rest of the industrial energy consumption is 27 TWh of final energy, and the freight transport consumes the equivalent of 17 TWh. Electronic and household appliances, used by households and in services, consumes 13 TWh (of which 10 TWh household consumption). Finally, the specific consumption of the agricultural sector is 4 TWh.
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20 0 2015 Energy intensive industry 2015 Energy intensive industry Agriculture and services Agriculture and services
2030 2030 Households Households
Other industrial sectors Other industrial sectors Transport Transport
Figure 2. 2. Final energy demand by sectors in 2015 and 2030, Source: Source: Own research based on National Figure 2. Final energy demand by sectors in 2015 and 2030, Source: Own research based on National Energy Energy Regulatory Regulatory Authority Authority (ANRE) (ANRE) data data [20]. [20]. Energy Regulatory Authority (ANRE) data [20].
Natural Natural gas, gas, the the main main energy energy resource resource in in Romania, Romania, had had aa share share of of 29% 29% (111 (111 TWh) TWh) in in the the primary primary Natural gas, the main energy resource in Romania, had a share of 29% (Figure (111 TWh) in the primary energy mix in 2015, followed by crude oil, with a share of 27% (101 TWh) 3). A total of energy mix in 2015, followed by crude oil, with a share of 27% (101 TWh) (Figure 3). A total of 65 energy mix in 2015, followed by crude oil, with a share of 27% (101 TWh) (Figure 3). A total of 65 65 TWh of coal (of which 55 TWh of lignite) and 46 TWh as biomass were consumed. Nuclear power TWh of coal (of which 55 TWh of lignite) and 46 TWh as biomass were consumed. Nuclear power TWh of coal35(of whichthe 55 TWh of energy lignite) andand 46 TWh as biomass were consumed. Nuclear power corresponds from RES to produce produce electricity corresponds to to 35 TWh TWh in in the primary primary energy mix mix and 26 26 TWh TWh comes comes from RES to electricity corresponds to 35 TWh in the primary energy mix and 26 TWh comes from RES to produce electricity (hydro, (hydro, wind, wind, and and photovoltaic). photovoltaic). The The difference difference between between gross gross energy energy consumption consumption and and the the primary primary (hydro, wind, and photovoltaic). The difference between gross energy consumption and the primary energy the net net export export of of electricity, electricity, which be allocated allocated by by the the type type of of resource. resource. energy mix mix is is given given by by the which cannot cannot be energy mix is given by the net export of electricity, which cannot be allocated by the type of resource.
2030 – 394 TWh 2030 – 394 TWh
Renewable Coal Renewable 10% Coal energy 10% 22%energy Renewable 22% Coal Renewable energy 17% Coal 17% 19%energy 19%
Nuclear 9%Nuclear2015 – 377 TWh 9% 2015 – 377 TWh Nuclear Nuclear 17% 17%
Oil 25% Oil 25% Oil 26% Oil 26%
Natural gas Natural gas 29% 29% Natural gas Natural gas 26% 26%
Figure 3. Structure of primary energy mix in 2015 and 2030, Source: Own research based on National Figure 3. Structure of primary energy mix in 2015 and 2030, Source: Own research based on National Energy Regulatory Regulatory Authority Authority (ANRE) (ANRE) data data [20]. [20]. Energy Energy Regulatory Authority (ANRE) data [20].
As Figure 4, biomass is the important contributor in the renewable energy As can canbe beobserved observedinin Figure 4, biomass is most the most important contributor in the renewable As can be observed in Figure 4, biomass is the most important contributor in the renewable mix in 2015, a share oneAlmost third ofone renewable is provided energy mix with in 2015, withofa63.9%. share Almost of 63.9%. third ofenergy renewable energy by is hydropower, provided by energy mix in 2015, with a share of 63.9%. Almost one third of renewable energy is provided by ahydropower, sector whichacan be extended the future, due to the fact due that to there in sector which caninbe extended in the future, theare factunfinished that there investments are unfinished hydropower, a sector which can be extended in the future, due to the fact that there are unfinished this sector that were started before 1989. investments in this sector that were started before 1989. investments in this sector that were started before 1989.
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0.6% 2.8% 9.7% 23.0% 63.9%
Geothermal
Photovoltaic
Wind
Hydro
Biomass/Waste
Figure 4. Structure of renewable energy mix in 2015, Source: Own research
Figure 4. Structure of renewable energy mix in 2015, Source: Own research The latest Eurostat data (2016) shows that the final energy price in Romania is considerably The Eurostat data (2016) shows thatgas theand final energy price in Romania is considerably below thelatest European average for both natural electricity. On electricity, Romania had the below the European average for both natural gas and electricity. On electricity, Romania hadthe theCzech sixth sixth lowest EU average household price of 132 €/MWh, Bulgaria (96 €/MWh), Lithuania, lowest EUEstonia, averageand household price€/MWh). of 132 €/MWh, Bulgariaconsumption, (96 €/MWh),Romania Lithuania, Republic, Croatia (131 For industrial hadthe theCzech third Republic, Estonia, and Croatia (131 €/MWh). For industrial consumption, Romania had the third lowest electricity price of 80 €/MWh, after Bulgaria and the Czech Republic (78 €/MWh), followed by lowest price of 80 €/MWh, Bulgaria and the Czech Republic (78 €/MWh), followed by Croatiaelectricity (93 €/MWh) and Estonia (96 after €/MWh). Croatia (93 €/MWh) and Estonia (96 €/MWh). 3. Main Renewable Energy Indicators Evolution 3. Main Renewable Energy Indicators Evolution The selected indicators were analyzed in comparison with other six EU member countries to The selected indicators were analyzed in comparison otherwere: six EU member countries to obtain a more significant overview. The countries selected for with the study Bulgaria, Czech Republic, obtain a more significant TheAll countries selected for the study were: Bulgaria, Czech Hungary, Poland, Slovenia, overview. and Slovakia. these states are former communist countries in different Republic, Hungary,development. Poland, Slovenia, and Slovakia. All these states are former communist countries stages of economic in different of economic development. One ofstages the most important indicators in the field of renewable energy is Renewable Energy One of the most important indicators the field of 40 renewable Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index (RECAI). Thein RECAI ranks countriesenergy on the is attractiveness of their Country Attractiveness Index (RECAI). The RECAI ranks 40 countries thesame attractiveness of their renewable energy investment and deployment opportunities [21]. Inon the time, RECAI has renewable investment andstandard deployment [21]. Inasthe same time, RECAI has establishedenergy itself as an industry and opportunities is widely regarded providing leading market established as an industry andrenewable is widelyenergy regarded providing leading market commentary,itself analysis, and insights standard on the global sectoras[22]. Analyzing this indicator commentary, and that insights on the renewable energy regarding sector [22]. Analyzing this (Table 1), it cananalysis, be observed Romania hasglobal an average attractiveness renewable energy. indicator (Table 1), it can be observed that Romania has an average attractiveness regarding Table 1. Romania scores in RECAI rankings. renewable energy. Indicator name Value Table 1. Romania scores in RECAI rankings. All renewables 46 Indicator Wind indexname Value 51 All renewables 46 Onshore index 55 Offshore index 38 Wind index 51 Solar index 33 Onshore index 55 Solar PV index 45 Offshore 38 Solar CSP Solar index 330 Biomass 44 Solar PV 45 Geothermal 41 Solar CSP 0 Infrastructure 45 Biomass 44 Source: Own representation adapted from RECAI [22]. Geothermal 41 Infrastructure 45
To have an overview ofSource: the renewable energy sector in Romania, we consider that a detailed Own representation adapted from RECAI [22] breakdown of the evolution of the main indicators is necessary. In terms of renewable energy, a series To have has an overview of the energy sector in Romania, we consider that a detailed of indicators been selected forrenewable this research, including: breakdown of the evolution of the main indicators is necessary. In terms of renewable energy, a series 1. indicators Renewable production; of has energies—primary been selected for this research, including: 2. 1.Share of renewables in electricity Renewable energies—primary production; production;
2.
Share of renewables in electricity production;
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4. electricity share of total electricity output; and 3. Renewable Renewable electricity output; 3. 5. electricity output; Renewable energy consumption; 4.Renewable Renewable electricity share of total electricity output; and 4. Renewable electricity share of total electricity output; and 5. Renewable energy consumption; 3.1 Energies—Primary Production 5. Renewable Renewable energy consumption; According to Eurostat, in renewable 3.1 Renewable Energies—Primary Productionenergy primary production are included all types of green 3.1. Renewable Energies—Primary Production energy: wind, hydro, photovoltaic, bioenergy, and geothermal. At the EU level, renewable energy According to Eurostat, in renewable energy primary production are included all types of green According to Eurostat, in renewable energy primary production included all types ofnoted green primary production is constantly increasing with an average of 5%. Theare greatest increase can be energy: wind, hydro, photovoltaic, bioenergy, and geothermal. At the EU level, renewable energy energy: wind, photovoltaic, bioenergy, and geothermal. in 2012 and 2011hydro, was the only year when this indicator decreases. At the EU level, renewable energy primary production is constantly increasing with an average of 5%. The greatest increase can be noted primary production increasing with an average 5%. The greatest increaseincan noted As can be seen is inconstantly Figure 5, renewable energy primaryof production is increasing thebe case of in 2012 and 2011 was the only year when this indicator decreases. in 2012 and 2011 was the only year when this indicator decreases. Romania. Due to this fact, in Romania it was possible to achieve the EU targets in terms of share of As can be seen in Figure 5, renewable energy primary production is increasing in the case of As can be seen 5, renewable energy primary increasing in thestarting case of renewable since 2015.in AtFigure the level of primary production from production all productsisa constant decline Romania. Due to this fact, in Romania it was possible to achieve the EU targets in terms of share of Romania. Duebetomentioned. this fact, in Romania it was possible to achieve the EU targets in terms of share of with 2012 can renewable since 2015. At the level of primary production from all products a constant decline starting renewable since 2015. At the level of primary production from all products a constant decline starting with 2012 can be mentioned. with 2012120,000 can be mentioned. 120,000 100,000
GWh GWh
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Bulgaria
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Czechia 2007Hungary 2010
Poland
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Slovenia
Slovakia
Poland 2016 Romania 2013
Slovenia
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2007 2010 2013 2016 Figure 5. Renewable energy primary production, Source: Own representation based on EUROSTAT Figure 5. Renewable energy primary production, Source: Own representation based on EUROSTAT data [12]. Figure 5. Renewable energy primary production, Source: Own representation based on EUROSTAT data [12]. data [12].
At the same time, it can be noticed that, compared to the other EU Member States, Romania At the same time, it can be noticed that, compared to the other EU Member States, Romania ranks second in terms of renewable energy primary production. Along with Poland, which ranks first Atsecond the same time, of it can be noticed that,primary compared to the other EU with Member States, Romania ranks in terms renewable energy production. Along Poland, which ranks in relation to this indicator, Romania is at a considerable distance from other former communist EU ranks in to terms renewable energyisprimary production. Along with whichcommunist ranks first first insecond relation thisof indicator, Romania at a considerable distance fromPoland, other former members. in to this indicator, Romania is at a considerable distance from other former communist EU EUrelation members. members. 3.2 3.2.Share ShareofofRenewables RenewablesininElectricity ElectricityProduction Production The share of energy sources 3.2 Share Renewables in Electricity Production Theof share of renewable renewable energy sources (Figure (Figure 6) 6) within within the the global global power power generation generation mix mix has has been growing quickly since the end of the 2000s [23]. beenThe growing quickly since the end of the 2000s [23]. share of renewable energy sources (Figure 6) within the global power generation mix has been growing quickly since the end of the 2000s [23]. 50.00
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1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Figure 6. 1997 Share electricity production worldwide evolution, 1998 of 1999 renewables 2000 2001 2002in2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 (%), 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: 2016 Figure 6. Share of renewables in electricity production (%), worldwide evolution, Source: Own Own representation based on Enerdata [23]. representation based on Enerdata [23]. Figure 6. Share of renewables in electricity production (%), worldwide evolution, Source: Own representation based on Enerdata [23].
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Between 2000 and 2016, the share of renewable energy registered an annual growth of 1.6% Between 2000 and 2016, the share of renewable energy registered an annual growth of 1.6% worldwide. The European Union recorded a 4.6% increase per year, which overtakes the increase by worldwide. The European Union recorded a 4.6% increase per year, which overtakes the increase by 3.4%, reached by Europe as a continent. 3.4%, reached by Europe as a continent. Romania did not exceed the EU average, having a 3.1%/year increase between 2000 and 2016. Romania did not exceed the EU average, having a 3.1%/year increase between 2000 and 2016. Analyzing the share of renewables in electricity production between 2015 and 2016, for Romania, Analyzing the share of renewables in electricity production between 2015 and 2016, for Romania, it a it a 7.8% increase can be observed. This value is 4.5% over the worldwide level, and 1.7% over the 7.8% increase can be observed. This value is 4.5% over the worldwide level, and 1.7% over the European Union level, which indicates a significant involvement in renewable energy. At Romania’s European Union level, which indicates a significant involvement in renewable energy. At Romania's level, the fast expansion that took place at the EU level between 2006 and 2014 continues, even though level, the fast expansion that took place at the EU level between 2006 and 2014 continues, even though at the Union level the penetration of RES in the European Union power mix has been increasing more at the Union level the penetration of RES in the European Union power mix has been increasing more slowly since then. slowly since then. As can be observed in Figure 7, at the EU level, that the share of renewable energy in energy As can be observed in Figure 7, at the EU level, that the share of renewable energy in energy consumption is on an ascending trend. There are countries like Romania, Hungary, or Bulgaria that consumption is on an ascending trend. There are countries like Romania, Hungary, or Bulgaria that achieved the target share for 2020. It is expected that all the countries of the EU will achieve this limit achieved the target share for 2020. It is expected that all the countries of the EU will achieve this limit by the end of the current decade. by the end of the current decade.
Share of renewable energy in energy consumption (%)
30 25 20
2007 2010
15
2013 10
2016 TARGET
5 0 EU (28 Bulgaria countries)
Czechia
Hungary
Poland
Romania Slovenia
Slovakia
Figure 7. Share of renewable energy in energy consumption, Source: Own representation based on Figure 7. Share of renewable energy in energy consumption, Source: Own representation based on EUROSTAT data [12]. EUROSTAT data [12].
3.3. Renewable Electricity Output and Renewable Electricity Share of Total Electricity 3.3 Renewable Electricity Output and Renewable Electricity Share of Total Electricity Renewable electricity is the quantity of electricity generated by renewable power plants in total Renewable electricity isbythe electricity by renewable powerare plants in total electricity generated allquantity types ofofplants. In generated the renewable power plants included energy electricity generated by all types of plants. In the renewable power plants are included energy generation factories that use renewable resources, including wind, solar PV, solar thermal, hydro, generation factories that use resources, municipal including waste, wind, liquid solar PV, solar and thermal, hydro, marine, geothermal, solidrenewable biofuels, renewable biofuels, biogas. Electricity marine, geothermal, municipal[24]. waste, liquid biofuels, and share biogas. production from solid hydrobiofuels, pumped renewable storage is excluded The renewable electricity of total Electricity production from hydro pumped storage is excluded [24]. The renewable electricity share electricity output (%) represents electricity generated by power plants using renewable resources as a of total electricity output (%) represents share of total electricity output [24]. electricity generated by power plants using renewable resources as a share has of total electricity output [24]. Romania increased its renewable energy output by 55% in the studied period, 1997–2014. Romania has increased its renewable energy output in the studied period, 1997–2014. The minimum output was in 2003, with a value of by 47.755% PJ caused by political tensions, economic The minimum in or 2003, value of 47.7 capacities PJ caused(Figure by political tensions, economicof the stagnationoutput and thewas aging highwith weara of production 8). From the perspective stagnation and the aging or high wear of production capacities (Figure 8). From trend the perspective of renewable electricity share with respect to total electricity output a fluctuating can be highlighted. the renewable electricity share with respect to total electricity output a fluctuating trend can be The lowest point was also in 2003, 24%, when the renewable electricity share was affected by the same highlighted. The lowest point also At in the 2003, 24%, whenthe therenewable renewable electricity share causes as renewable energywas output. level of 2014, electricity share waswas 41.6% of affected by the same causes as renewable energy output. At the level of 2014, the renewable electricity total electricity output, with an ascending perspective for this indicator. share was 41.6% of total electricity output, with an ascending perspective for this indicator.
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Figure 8. Renewable electricity output vs renewable of total electricity Renewable electricity output (PJ) evolution (TJ) Renewable electricity electricity share of totalshare electricity output (%) output evolution (%), Source: Own representation based on EUROSTAT and World Bank data [12,24]. Figure Renewable electricity electricity output output evolution evolution (TJ) (TJ) vs vs renewable renewable electricity electricity share share of of total total electricity electricity Figure 8. 8. Renewable output evolution (%), Source: Own representation based on EUROSTAT and World Bank data [12,24]. output evolution Source: Own representation based on EUROSTAT and World Bank data [12,24]. 3.4 Renewable Energy (%), Consumption
3.4. Renewable Energy Consumption Renewable energy consumption is the share of renewable energy in total final energy 3.4 Renewable Energy Consumption consumption. The first consumption study, belonging Kraftofand Kraft [25], which investigates theconsumption. relationship Renewable energy is thetoshare renewable energy in total final energy Renewable energy consumption is thegrowth, share of renewable energy in total final energy between energy consumption and economic started a segment that has been extensively The first study, belonging to Kraft and Kraft [25], which investigates the relationship between energy consumption. The first study, belonging to Kraftenergy and Kraft [25], whichisinvestigates the relationship researched. and Payne indicate consumption positively associated with consumptionApergis and economic growth, startedthat a segment that has been extensively researched. Apergis between energy consumption and economic growth, started a segment that has been extensively economic [26]. Contrariwise, in an empirical research for 27 European countries, empirical and Paynegrowth indicate that energy consumption is positively associated with economic growth [26]. researched. Apergis and Payne indicate that energy consumption is and positively associated with results do not confirm causality between renewable energy consumption gross domestic product Contrariwise, in an empirical research for 27 European countries, empirical results do not confirm economic growth [26]. Contrariwise, in an empirical research for 27 European countries, empirical (GDP) [27]. causality between renewable energy consumption and gross domestic product (GDP) [27]. results do not confirm causality abetween renewable energy consumption and gross domestic product Energy significant number of Energy consumption consumption was was aspecial specialissue issueresearched researchedduring duringthe thetime. time.A A significant number (GDP) [27]. articles investigate the causal nexuses between CO 2 emissions, economic growth and energy of articles investigate the causal nexuses between CO2 emissions, economic growth and energy Energy consumption was a special issue researched during renewable the time. A significant number of consumption consumption [27–30]. [27–30]. Bhattacharya Bhattacharya et et al. al. investigate investigate the the effects effects of of renewable energy energy consumption consumption on on articles investigate the causal nexuses between CO 2 emissions, economic growth and energy the economic growth of major renewable energy consuming countries in the world [28]. In the same the economic growth of major renewable energy consuming countries in the world [28]. In the same consumption [27–30]. Bhattacharya al. investigate the effects of renewable consumption on time, Saidietet investigate the et impact of economic growth and CO2energy emissions on energy time, Saidi al. al. investigate the impact of economic growth and CO2 emissions on energy consumption the economic growth of major renewable energy consuming countries in the world [28]. In the same consumption for aof global panel of[30]. 58 countries [30]. for a global panel 58 countries time,Renewable Saidi et al. investigate the impact of economic growth and CO2consumption emissions on energy energy consumption the ratio between gross inland of energy Renewable energy consumption isisthe ratio between thethe gross inland consumption of energy from consumption forsources a globaland panel 58 countries [30]. from renewable theof total (primary) gross energy inland consumption energy consumption calculated for a renewable sources and the total (primary) gross inland calculated for a calendar Renewable[31]. energy consumption is the ratio between the renewable gross inland consumption ofa energy calendar share consumption of energy consumption from energy provides broad year [31]. year The share The of energy from renewable energy provides a broad indication of from renewable sources and the total (primary) gross inland energy consumption calculated for a indication of progress towards reducing the environmental impact of energy consumption. progress towards reducing the environmental impact of energy consumption. calendar year [31]. The share Romania of energy consumption from renewable energy renewable provides a broad As As presented presented in in Figure Figure 9, 9, Romania recorded recorded aa fluctuating fluctuating trend trend in in terms terms of of renewable energy energy indication of progress towards reducing the environmental impact of energy consumption. consumption. In the period 1997–2003, Romania was situated below the worldwide average. Starting consumption. In the period 1997–2003, Romania was situated below the worldwide average. Starting As presented Figure 9,beat Romania recorded fluctuating trend inThe terms of2007 renewable energy with year 2007, 2007,inRomania Romania year after after year athe the world average. average. with the the year beat year year world The year year 2007 had had aa special special consumption. In the period 1997–2003, Romania was situated below the worldwide average. Starting significance significance for for this this country: country: it it was was the the year year of of Romania’s Romania’s accession accession to to the the EU. EU. For For the thestudied studied period, period, with the year 2007, Romania beat year after year the was world average. The year 2007 had a special 1997–2014, Romania’s renewable energy consumption above the EU average. 1997–2014, Romania’s renewable energy consumption was above the EU average. significance for this country: it was the year of Romania’s accession to the EU. For the studied period, 1997–2014, Romania’s Romania renewable energy consumption was above the EU average. World European Union 18.00
30.00
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0.00 9. Renewable Renewable energy energy consumption consumption (% (% of total final energy Figure energy consumption), consumption), Source: Source: Own 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 representation based on World World Bank Bank data data [24]. [24]. Figure 9. Renewable energy consumption (% of total final energy consumption), Source: Own representation based on World Bank data [24].
0.00
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9 of in 21 2011) experienced a slight decrease (from 24.1% in 2010 to 21.1% Even if, in 2011, indicator experienced slight decrease (from 24.1% inIn2010 tothe 21.1% in 2011) value due to the global crisis,this after 2012 its trajectoryahas continually improved. 2014 maximum Even if, in 2011, this indicator experienced a slight decrease (from 24.1% in 2010 to 21.1% in 2011) due to the global crisis, after 2012 its trajectory has continually improved. In 2014 the maximum value of renewable energy consumption was reached for the studied period. due to the global crisis, after 2012 its trajectory has continually improved. In 2014 the maximum value ofIn renewable energy consumption was reached for the studied period. Figure 10,energy can beconsumption highlightedwas thatreached Romania records theperiod. second-best final energy consumption of renewable for the studied In Figure 10, can be highlighted that Romania records the second-best final energy consumption after Poland. In almost all analyzed indicators, Romania ranks second, in terms of renewable In Figure 10, can be highlighted that Romania records the second-best final energy consumption after Poland. In almost all analyzed indicators, Romania ranks second, in terms of renewable energy energy communist countries. can be outlined that in this country tries toenergy strengthen afteramong Poland.former In almost all analyzed indicators,ItRomania ranks second, terms of renewable among former communist countries. It can be outlined that this country tries to strengthen its among former not communist countries. It cansector, be outlined that regarding this countryits tries to strengthen its and its performance performance only in the energy but also economic growth not only in the energy sector, but also regarding its economic growth and environmental performance not only in the energy sector, but also regarding its economic growth and environmental environmental performance.performance.
performance.
2016 2016
2013 2013
2010 2010
2007 2007
Slovakia Slovakia Slovenia Slovenia Romania Romania Poland Poland Hungary Hungary Czechia Czechia Bulgaria Bulgaria 0
0
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20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 Final energy consumption (GWh) Final energy consumption (GWh)
60,000 60,000
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Figure 10. Final energy consumption (GWh), Source: Own representation based on World Bank Figure 10. Final energy consumption (GWh), Source: Own representation based on World Bank data [24]. data [24]. 10. Final energy consumption (GWh), Source: Own representation based on World Bank data [24]. Figure
ElectricalCapacity Capacity 3.5.3.4 Electrical
3.4 Electrical Capacity With 11.16 GWinstalled installedcapacity capacity in 2016, Romania ranks firstfirst of the seven EU countries analyzed With 11.16 GW Romania ranks seven EU countries analyzed With 11.16 GW installed capacityin in2016, 2016, Romania ranks first of of thethe seven EU countries analyzed regarding renewable energy installed capacity (Figure 11). The weakest installed capacity regarding renewable energy installed capacity (Figure 11). The weakest installedinstalled capacitycapacity performance regarding renewable energy installed capacity (Figure 11). The weakest performance is recorded by Hungary, with only 1.12 GW, in 2016. Compared with 2005 a 622% is recorded by Hungary, with 1.12 with GW, only in 2016. Compared 2005 awith 622% increase performance is recorded by only Hungary, 1.12 GW, in 2016.with Compared 2005 a 622%of this increase of this indicator is registered by Poland can be observed, especially between 2010 and 2013. indicator is of registered by Poland can by bePoland observed, especially and2010 2013. reached increase this indicator is registered can be observed, between especially 2010 between and It 2013. It reached 8.11 GW capacity in about 10 years, starting from 1.09 GW in 2005. In the case of Romania, It reached 8.11 GW capacity in about 10 years, starting from 1.09 GW in 2005. In the case of Romania, 8.11renewable GW capacity in installed about 10capacity years, starting from 46% 1.09ofGW 2005. In the capacity. case of Romania, renewable energy means almost the in entire installed It is important renewable energy installed capacity means almost 46% ofinstalled the entirecapacity. installed capacity. It is important energy installed capacity means almost 46% of the entire It is important to to underline that all seven former communist countries made significant progress in termsunderline of to that all seven former communist made significant progress in terms of thatrenewable all underline sevenenergy former communist countries madecountries significant progress in terms of renewable energy installed capacity. renewable energy installed capacity.
installed capacity. 12.00 12.00 10.00 10.00
GW GW
8.00 8.00 6.00 6.00 4.00 4.00 2.00 2.00 0.00 0.00
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Bulgaria Bulgaria
Czechia Czechia
Hungary Hungary
Poland Poland
Romania Romania
Slovenia Slovenia
Slovakia Slovakia
Figure 11. Renewable energy capacity evolution between 2005 and 2016 (GW), Source: Own representation based on IRENA data [32].
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Figure 11. Renewable energy capacity evolution between 2005 and 2016 (GW), Source: Own 10 of 22 representation based on IRENA data [32].
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4. The Renewable Energy Sources and the Current Situation in Romania 4. The Renewable Energy Sources and the Current Situation in Romania In the European Union, renewables account for 80% of new capacity and wind power becomes In the European Union, renewables account for 80% of new capacity and wind power becomes the leading source of electricity soon after 2030, due to strong growth both onshore and offshore [33]. the leading source of electricity soon after 2030, due to strong growth both onshore and offshore [33]. Renewable energy sources are steadily becoming a greater part of the global energy mix [34]. World Renewable energy sources are steadily becoming a greater part of the global energy mix [34]. energy consumption rises 28% between 2015 and 2040 [35]. Renewables capture two-thirds of global World energy consumption rises 28% between 2015 and 2040 [35]. Renewables capture two-thirds of investment in power plants to 2040 as they become, for many countries, the least-cost source of the global investment in power plants to 2040 as they become, for many countries, the least-cost source of new generation [36]. the new generation [36]. The development of electricity production from renewable sources led to a decrease in GHG The development of electricity production from renewable sources led to a decrease in GHG emissions from the electricity generation process. The amount of greenhouse-gas emissions resulting emissions from the electricity generation process. The amount of greenhouse-gas emissions resulting from the production of electricity decreased from 438 g/kWh in 2011 to 326 g/kWh in 2015. The from the production of electricity decreased from 438 g/kWh in 2011 to 326 g/kWh in 2015. influence of renewable energy in domestic electricity was significant, mainly due to the replacement The influence of renewable energy in domestic electricity was significant, mainly due to the replacement of polluting fossil-fuel electricity. of polluting fossil-fuel electricity. Currently, the annual production of energy from renewable resources in Romania is Currently, the annual production of energy from renewable resources in Romania is approximately approximately 6550 ktoe (kilotons of oil equivalent). A technical potential of 8000 ktoe remains 6550 ktoe (kilotons of oil equivalent). A technical potential of 8000 ktoe remains unexploited, unexploited, with biomass and biogas representing 47%, solar energy 19%, wind energy 19%, with biomass and biogas representing 47%, solar energy 19%, wind energy 19%, hydropower energy hydropower energy 14%, and geothermal energy 2%. 14%, and geothermal energy 2%. 4.1 Wind Wind 4.1.
8000.0
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2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Gross inland consumption - Wind (GWh)
Primary production Renewable energies (GWh)
GWh
Theshare shareofofwind wind power in the EU’s installed power capacity has increased from The power in the EU’s totaltotal installed power capacity has increased from 6% in 6% 2005in 2005 to 18% in 2017. Having overtaken coal in 2016 as the second largest form of power generation to 18% in 2017. Having overtaken coal in 2016 as the second largest form of power generation capacity the EU, wind power is now closelyup catching up[33]. with gas [33]. incapacity the EU,in wind power is now closely catching with gas Wind energy generated by wind power remains advantageous, Romaniahas hasthe thehighest highest Wind energy generated by wind power remains advantageous, asasRomania potentialininSoutheast SoutheastEurope Europe the field wind energy, Southeast Dobrogea is ranked second potential inin the field ofof wind energy, andand Southeast Dobrogea is ranked second in in the continent. Wind turbines use a perpetual renewable energy that is never consumed and start the continent. Wind turbines use a perpetual renewable energy that is never consumed and start from wind of speed only 3.5Inm/s. In Dobrogea the speed is 7atm/s at a height 100 meters. afrom windaspeed onlyof3.5 m/s. Dobrogea the speed is 7 m/s a height of 100ofmeters. Ascan canbe beobserved observedininFigure Figure12, 12,starting startingwith with2007, 2007,Romania Romaniabegan begantotoproduce producewind-based wind-based As energy. The primary production recorded a slight increase every year. If in 2007 primary production energy. The primary production recorded a slight increase every year. If in 2007 primary production was only 0.3 toe, in 2016 the primary production reached 566 toe. The greatest increase was registered was only 0.3 toe, in 2016 the primary production reached 566 toe. The greatest increase was registered 2010and andititconsists consistsofofan anenlarging enlargingcapacity capacitywith with3188% 3188%compared comparedwith with2009. 2009.The Theaverage averageincrease increase inin2010 of primary production in wind energy was 431% between 2007 and 2016. This trend was in of primary production in wind energy was 431% between 2007 and 2016. This trend was in accordance accordance withat the increase level of all renewable energy sources. In 2016, a slight decrease with the increase the level ofatallthe renewable energy sources. In 2016, a slight decrease of 7% in windof 7% in wind primary production can be highlighted. Simultaneously, wind gross inland production primary production can be highlighted. Simultaneously, wind gross inland production followed the followed the same trend. same trend.
Primary production - Wind (GWh)
Primary production - Renewable energies (GWh)
Figure Figure12. 12.Main Mainwind windindicators indicatorsevolution evolutionbetween between2007 2007and and2016, 2016,Source: Source:Own Ownresearch researchbased basedon on Eurostat data [12]. Eurostat data [12].
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In Romania, five wind zones were identified, depending on the environmental and In Romania, five wind zones were identified, depending on the environmental and topotopo-geographical conditions, considering theoflevel of thepotential energy potential of suchatresources geographical conditions, considering the level the energy of such resources an averageat an average height of 50 meters and(Figure over (Figure 13). height of 50 meters and over 13).
Figure 13. 13. Romanian wind Meteorological Administration (ANM) Figure Romanian windresources, resources,Source: Source: National National Meteorological Administration (ANM) [37].[37].
TheThe results of the measurements show thatthat Romania is inisa temperate continental climate, results of recorded the recorded measurements show Romania in a temperate continental withclimate, high energy potential, especially in the littoral and coastal areasareas (mild climate), as as well with high energy potential, especially in the littoral and coastal (mild climate), wellas in as in alpine areas with plateaus and mountain valleys (severe climate). is estimated that annual alpine areas with plateaus and mountain valleys (severe climate). It is Itestimated that thethe annual wind wind energy potential in Romania is around 23 TWh. energy potential in Romania is around 23 TWh. In 2015, a total of about GW of new power generationcapacity capacitywere wereconnected connected in in the the EU EU and In 2015, a total of about 27.327.3 GW of new power generation and 18.2 GW were decommissioned, resulting in 9.1 GW of new net capacity. Renewable energy 18.2 GW were decommissioned, resulting in 9.1 GW of new net capacity. Renewable energy sources sources (RES) accounted for 20.6 GW or 75.6% of all new power generation capacity [38]. (RES) accounted for 20.6 GW or 75.6% of all new power generation capacity [38]. Romania's wind potential is the highest in Southeast Europe [39]. The wind energy in Romania Romania’s wind potential is the highest in Southeast Europe [39]. The wind energy in Romania witnessed considerable development over the five-year period. A total of 75 wind farms with a power witnessed considerable development over the five-year period. A total of 75 wind farms with a power range from 0.008 to 600 MW and an average of 40 MW were built [39]. range from 0.008 to of 600 MW an average of 40 MW built [39]. At the level 2012, in and Romania were installed 923 were MW that represents an increase of 94% of the At the level of 2012, in Romania were installed 923 MWofthat represents an increase of 94% total wind power capacity. Cumulative wind power capacity Romania has reached 1905 MW at of the total wind power capacity. Cumulative wind power capacity of Romania has reached 1905 the end of 2012, surpassing the estimates of ANRE and the National Action Plan for RenewableMW at the end of 2012, surpassing the estimates of ANRE and investments the National Plan in forRomania Renewable Energy [40]. Simultaneously, Tocan has analyzed the main in Action wind energy [40].[40]. Representative investments Table 2. investments in wind energy in Romania [40]. Energy Simultaneously, Tocan are haspresented analyzedin the main Representative investments are presented in Table 2. Table 2. Major investments in Romanian wind energy production.
Table 2. Major investments in Romanian wind energy production. Company Company Cez Cez Enel Green Power Enel Green Power GDF SUEZ GDF SUEZ Verbund Verbund Lukerg Lukerg EDP Renewables EDP Renewables
Country of Origin Country of Origin Czech Republic Czech Republic Italy Italy France France Austria Austria Russia & Italy Russia & Italy Portugal Portugal
Capacity Total Investments (MW) (EUR)Total Investments Capacity (MW) (EUR) 600 1.1 billion 600 1.1 billion 180180 330330 million million 48 80 million 48 80 million 100 320 million 100 320 million 84 135 million 84 270 135200 million million 270 200 million
Source: Own research.
Place of Investment Place of Investment Fantanele-Cogealac Fantanele-Cogealac Tulcea and Caras Severin Tulcea and Caras Severin County County Braila County Braila County Tulcea County Tulcea County Tulcea County Tulcea County Ialomita County Ialomita County
Source: Own research
As can be observed in the previous table, the main investor in wind energy in Romania is Cez. On and third both for table, installed and totalinofwind investments ranked Enel Asthe cansecond be observed in place, the previous thecapacity main investor energy are in Romania is Cez. Green Power and EDP Renewables. On the second and third place, both for installed capacity and total of investments are ranked Enel
Green Power and EDP Renewables. Dobrogea region became, in 2014, the largest wind farm in Central and Eastern Europe, with hundreds of 2.5 MW wind turbines installed all over the Constanta County, in sites as:
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Cogealac, Fantanele, Pestera, Independenta, Chirnogeni, Silistea, Targusor, and Crucea localities and surrounding areas. In April 2016 Romania’s electricity production accounted 23% of total energy production coming from wind energy. According to the state-based transportation company, Transelectrica, the wind was the second most important power source, after hydropower. In April 2016, the wind energy production amounted to 1941 MW whereas hydropower reached 2192 MW, representing 26% of the total [41]. After 2017, one of the largest projects in the field is represented by the NERO Renewables project, which intends to build in Romania three wind farms with 362 turbines and a total installed capacity of about 1 GW, with 400 MW above the capacity of the Fântânele-Cogealac onshore park, currently the largest of its kind in Europe [42]. Given that the Netherlands expects to miss the target of a 14% share of renewable energy in total energy production for 2020 and Romania has already reached its 2020 target, NERO proposed to the Dutch Government to “adopt” the project in Romania. Thus, through the European mechanism “joint projects” for cooperation in the renewable energy sector, the Netherlands will be able to co-finance the wind farms developed by NERO in Romania, and the energy produced by them will be included in the renewable energy production of the Netherlands. At the end of 2017, Romania has 3209 MW installed wind power capacity. This means that 12.2% of the average annual electricity demand is covered by wind [33]. Wind energy investments in 2017 were less geographically concentrated than in 2016. Wind energy investments accounted for 52% of the new clean energy finance in 2017, compared to 86% in 2016. Germany was the largest investor in 2017 with a total financing activity of €6.7 bn for the construction of new onshore and offshore wind farms. 4.2. Photovoltaic According to Romania Photovoltaic Market Outlook 2014–2025, Romania was one of the most promising emerging markets for photovoltaic energy investments in 2013 amongst SEE countries [43]. Romania’s solar potential is widespread throughout the country. Romania benefits from about 210 sunny days per year. The southeastern region of Romania, the west, the center, and the east of the country are the best places to place a solar park. Solar energy is quoted by many market specialists with good chances to turn into the new boom in the green energy segment. It is very difficult to assess the number of photovoltaic (PV) parks existing in Romania because no institution centralizes this information and does not have a cumulative record. As of 2016, consulting and comparing information from various sources, not all official, we found that 962 photovoltaic power stations or photovoltaic parks with a combined installed capacity of 4871.66 MW were built up to last year. A total of 212 of them produce less than 1 MW and 112 have a production below 2 MW (Table 3). Most PV parks are built in Ialomita county (59 parks), and the largest installed capacity is in Brasov County, at 287.5 MW. Table 3. No. of PV farms and installed capacity in Romania, 2016. Region
Number of PV Farms
Installed Capacity (MW)
North-East South-East South Muntenia Southwest Oltenia West Northwest Center Bucharest-Ilfov
26 91 302 134 96 178 110 25
28.15 149.51 827.95 393.47 148.85 430.22 568.93 17.58
Source: Own research
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During Duringthe the1970s 1970sand and1980s, 1980s,Romania Romaniawas wasan anearly earlyplayer playerin inthe thesolar solarpower powerindustry, industry,installing installing 2 2 around around 800,000 800,000 m m of ofearly-technology early-technologysolar solarcells, cells,which whichplaced placedthe thecountry countrythird thirdworldwide worldwideas asfar far as the total surface of photovoltaic panels was concerned. Although the support scheme was one as the total surface of photovoltaic panels was concerned. Although the support scheme was oneof of the the main main investment investmentdrivers driverslately, lately, the the solar solar sector sector has has lagged. lagged. In In 2011 2011 the the production production of of electricity electricity using usingsolar solarPV PVwas wasinsignificant insignificantin inRomania, Romania,while whilein inApril April2012 2012only onlytwo twoPV PVplants plantswere wereoperational, operational, each amounting to 1 MW. The solar installed capacity recorded an increase from 500 kW each amounting to 1 MW. The solar installed capacity recorded an increase from 500 kW in in 2008 2008 to to 1.3 1.3 GW GW in in 2016 2016 (Figure (Figure 14). 14). 2 500 2 000 1 500 1 000 500 0 2010
2011
2012
Electricity capacity (MW)
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Electricity generation (GWh)
Figure 14. Main photovoltaic indicators evolution between 2010 and 2016, Source: Own research based Figure 14. Main photovoltaic indicators evolution between 2010 and 2016, Source: Own research on Eurostat and IRENA data [32]. based on Eurostat and IRENA data [32].
The most important increase of the electricity capacity can be underlined between 2013 and 2014, The important increase of the capacity can2013, be underlined between 2013 and 2014, when themost capacity has grown from 761electricity MW to 1293 MW. In the Romanian incentive structure when the capacity from 761 MW to 1293 MW. In 2013, the incentive structure subsidizes up to a has totalgrown of six green certificates per megawatt-hour of Romanian electricity produced. Demand subsidizes up to a total of six green certificates per megawatt-hour of electricity produced. Demand significantly exceeded expectations, and in response the Romanian Energy Regulatory Authority significantly exceeded expectations, in certificates response the Romanian Energy Regulatory (ANRE) recommended a reduction inand green from six to three in March 2013. Authority (ANRE) a reduction in agreen certificates six installations to three in March Therecommended result of this incentive was 3361% increase from in solar over 2013. the 30 megawatts The result of this incentive was a 3361% increase in solar installations over the 30PV megawatts installed in 2012. Romania’s rise is a byproduct of the longstanding forces governing demand, installed in 2012. Romania’s rise is a byproduct of the longstanding forces governing PV demand, which shifted development from region to region based on rapid changes to incentives. With an which shifted development regioninsolation to regionand based on rapid changes tofor incentives. With an attractive incentive program,from acceptable geographic accessibility vendors and EPCs, attractive incentive program, acceptable insolation and geographic accessibility for vendors and Romania met all the criteria for a strong PV market. However, similar to other markets, a rapid EPCs, Romania met all the criteria for a strong PV in market. However, similar to other markets, a rapid phase-out of incentives caused a significant drop installations. phase-out of incentives caused a significant drop in installations. 4.3. Hydropower 4.3 Hydropower Hydropower is one of the main contributors to the total electricity generation in Romania, with a Hydropower is one30% of the main contributors to the total generation in Romania, witha contribution of around of the total power delivered to theelectricity grid. In 2010 hydropower plants had atotal contribution of around 30% of the total power delivered to the grid. In 2010 hydropower plants had installed capacity of over 6400 MW and produced 19.8 TWh electricity [44]. a totalCompared installed capacity over 6400 MW and produced TWh electricity [44]. from 6.38 GW to to 2008, of in 2016 the hydropower installed19.8 capacity slightly increase Compared to 2008, in 2016 the hydropower installed capacity slightly increase from GW to 6.71 GW. Additionally, in the same period, a drop of the hydropower production, from 1.466.38 Mtoe/year 6.71 GW. ininthe same period, a drop the hydropower fromsector 1.46 in 2008 to Additionally, 1.25 Mtoe/year 2016 can be remarked. Theoflargest company in production, the hydropower Mtoe/year in 2008 to 1.25 Mtoe/year in 2016 can be remarked. The largest company in the hydropower is a state-owned company named Hidroelectrica. In 2017, this company produced 14.04 TWh in 208 sector is a state-owned company named Hidroelectrica. In 2017, company producedposted 14.04 TWh hydropower plants with 6444 MW installed power. At the level this of 2017, Hidroelectrica EUR in 208 hydropower plantsinwith power. At thewhen level its of 2017, Hidroelectrica posted 260 million gross profit the 6444 first MW nine installed months of this year, turnover stood at EUR 525 EUR 260 million gross profit in the first nine months of this year, when its turnover stood at EUR 525 million [45]. At the level of 2016, the values of the produced energy and of the power installed in the million [45]. At the level 2016, theinvalues of the energy and4. of the power installed in the hydropower facilities in of operation Romania areproduced represented in Table hydropower facilities in operation in Romania are represented in Table 4.
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Table 4. Hydropower facilities in operation, 2016. Type of Facility Number of Plants Installed Power (MW) Energy Produced (GWh/year) Table 4. Hydropower facilities in operation, 2016. Largeofhydropower 107 6104.5 16,630.00 (GWh/year) Type Facility Number of Plants Installed Power (MW) Energy Produced Type of Facility Number of5 Plants Installed Power Pump 91.5 (MW) Energy Produced n/a(GWh/year) Large hydropower 107 6104.5 16,630.00 Small hydropower 418 573.2 1458.00 Large hydropower 107 6104.5 16,630.00 Pump 5 91.5 n/a Total 6769.7 18,088.00 Pump 5418 91.5 n/a Small hydropower 573.2 1458.00 Small hydropower Total 418 573.2 1458.00 6769.7 18,088.00 Source: Own research Total 6769.7 18,088.00 In Romania, hydropower capacity has grown from year to year. If in 2000 the electricity capacity Source: Own research Own research was 6120 MW, in 2016 it reached 6734 MW.Source: This means a 10% increase in capacity in 15 years (Figure 15).In Romania, hydropower capacity has grown from year to year. If in 2000 the electricity capacity was 6120 MW, in 2016 it reachedcapacity 6734 MW. means a 10% 15 years (Figure In Romania, hydropower hasThis grown from year increase to year. Ifinincapacity 2000 theinelectricity capacity 15). 25 000 was 6120 MW, in 2016 it reached 6734 MW. This means a 10% increase in capacity in 15 years (Figure8015). 70 8060 7050
000 2520 000 000 2015 000
6040 5030
000 1510 000
4020 3010
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200 2000
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2004
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Electricity generation (GWh) 2005
2006
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2008
2009
2010
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2013
2014
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2016 10
Electricity production (TWh) 2011
2012
2013
2014
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0
2016
Electricity capacity (MW) indicatorsElectricity generation (TWh) after Figure 15. Main hydropower evolution between(GWh) 2000 and 2016,Electricity Source: production Own research Eurostat [12]. Figure 15.data Main hydropower indicators evolution between 2000 and 2016, Source: Own research after Figure 15. Main hydropower indicators evolution between 2000 and 2016, Source: Own research after Eurostat data [12]. Eurostat At the data level[12]. of 2005, a slight decrease in electricity capacity was recorded, –7 MW. In 2014 the
Atincrease the levelinofelectricity 2005, a slight decrease electricity capacity was recorded, –7 MW. In 2014 the largest capacity of 117inMW added for the analyzed period can be remarked. At the level of 2005, a slight decrease in electricity capacity was recorded, –7 MW. In 2014 the largest increase in electricity of 117 MW for the analyzedhave period be remarked. World Energy Trilemmacapacity 2016 considers thatadded emerging economies thecan potential to double largest increase in electricity capacity of 117 MW added for the analyzed period can be remarked. World Energy Trilemma 2016 considers that emerging economies double energy production by 2050, including low-power hydropower plantshave [46].the In potential the sametoreport is World Energy Trilemma 2016 considers that emerging economies have the potential to double energy production by 2050, including low-power hydropower plants [46]. In the same report is highlighted that hydropower contributes more than 16% of total energy needs and supplies 76% of energy production by 2050, including low-power hydropower plants In theand same report is highlighted that hydropower contributes moreInthan 16% of total energy needs supplies 76% total energy produced from renewable sources. Romania, in 2016, the [46]. exploitable potential reached highlighted hydropower contributes more 16% of total energy needs supplies 76% of of total energy produced renewable sources. In Romania, in 2016, theand exploitable potential 69–75% of that its capacity. Anfrom important share of than the remaining exploitable potential, representing 6–8 total energy produced from renewable sources. In Romania, in 2016, the exploitable potential reached reached 69–75% of its capacity. An important share of the remaining exploitable potential, representing TWh/year, can be valued in the future. This represents a new installed capacity of approx. 1700–2700 69–75% of its capacity. Anvalued important share of theThis remaining exploitable potential,capacity representing 6–8 6–8 in the future. represents a new installed of approx. MWTWh/year, (Figure 16). can be TWh/year, be(Figure valued16). in the future. This represents a new installed capacity of approx. 1700–2700 1700–2700can MW MW (Figure 16).
Technically Economically Exploitable In operation feasible - 9000feasible 8500-9500 MW 6769 MW 10000MW 14435 MW Technically Economically Exploitable In operation feasible - 9000feasible 8500-9500 MW 6769 MW 10000MW Figure 16.MW Romanian hydropower potential, Source: Own research based on ANRE data [20]. 14435 Figure 16. Romanian hydropower potential, Source: Own research based on ANRE data [20].
To extend the hydropower network in Romania, the national authorities could speed the completion of16. various plants at various stagesinofSource: execution. There arebased 14 authorities large hydropower Romanian hydropower potential, Ownthe research on ANRE data [20].plants ToFigure extend the hydropower network Romania, national could speed and the eight small hydropower plants with an installed capacity of 416 MW and an annual energy output of completion of various plants at various stages of execution. There are 14 large hydropower plants 1329.40 MWh/year, which were started before 1989. To extend the hydropower network in Romania, the national authorities could speed the and eight small hydropower plants with an installed capacity of 416 MW and an annual energy completion of various plants atwhich various stages of execution. There are 14 large hydropower plants output of 1329.40 MWh/year, were started before 1989. 4.4. Bioenergy and eight small hydropower plants with an installed capacity of 416 MW and an annual energy output of 1329.40isMWh/year, were 1989. Romania the state ofwhich Europe beststarted suitedbefore for bio-economy with a localization coefficient of 4.4 Bioenergy 3.9. This means that the share of people working in the Romanian bio-economy is almost four Romania is the state of Europe best suited for bio-economy with a localization coefficient of 3.9. 4.4 Bioenergy times the share of those working in the bio-economy of the rest of the European Union. In fact, This means that the share of people working in the Romanian bio-economy is almost four times the thisRomania "concentration" in the is mainly due to a very large concentration of the laborof market is the state ofbio-economy Europe best suited forof bio-economy localization coefficient share of those working in the bio-economy the rest ofwith the aEuropean Union. In fact,3.9. this This means that the share of people working in the Romanian bio-economy is almost four times the share of those working in the bio-economy of the rest of the European Union. In fact, this
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"concentration" in the bio-economy is mainly due to a very large concentration of the labor market in agriculture in Romania. One One of the important aspect that bio-economy refersrefers to is bioenergy. In in agriculture in Romania. ofmost the most important aspect that bio-economy to is bioenergy. the of bioenergy can be (1) Solid biomass including waste; (2) Biogas and (3) In category the category of bioenergy canincluded: be included: (1) Solid biomass including waste; (2) Biogas and Liquid Biofuels. (3) Liquid Biofuels. Biomass main form energy Biomassisisand andwill willremain remainthe themain maintype typeofofRES RESininRomania. Romania.The The main formofof energybiomass biomass produced solid biomass producedininRomania Romaniaisisfirewood firewood(95%), (95%),being beingananimportant importantgenerator generatorofofGHG. GHG.Data Dataonon solid biomass production presents a high degree of uncertainty (about 20%) compared to a central estimate ofTWh 42 production presents a high of uncertainty (about 20%) compared to a central estimate of 42 TWh in 2015, uncertainty also reflected in heating consumption andbalances energy of balances of Romania. in 2015, uncertainty also reflected in heating consumption and energy Romania. Household Household firewood consumption is estimated at 36 TWh; with the mention that the predominant firewood consumption is estimated at 36 TWh; with the mention that the predominant biomass is used biomass is used inofthe production of heat, respectively and electricity cogeneration. in the production heat, respectively heat and electricity heat in cogeneration. Thein modeling results The show modeling resultsin show a 20%consumption decrease in firewood consumption which will lead to a slightto a 20% decrease firewood by 2030, which will leadby to2030, a slight decrease in production decrease 39 TWh.in production to 39 TWh. We Weare arecloser closertotothe thetruth truthconsidering consideringbiomass biomassasasa abridge bridgebetween betweenfossil fossilresources resourcesand andtruly truly non-polluting can mean a period ofof transition, long enough, non-pollutingresources—so, resources—so,atatbest; best;the theuse useofofbiomass biomass can mean a period transition, long enough, towards towardsa atruly trulynon-polluting non-pollutingenergy energysystem. system.For Fornow, now,the theEuropean EuropeanCommission's Commission’sreport reportonly only succeeds succeedsininhighlighting highlightingthe thebenefits benefitsofofbiomass biomassover overthe theuse useofoffossil fossilresources, resources,but butatatthe thesame sametime time highlights large-scale risks risksthat thatinefficient inefficient of biomass can bring. it would highlightsthe thepossible possible large-scale useuse of biomass can bring. Thus,Thus, it would require require a reassessment of the importance biomass in theof plans of the EU countries. a reassessment of the importance biomass has to has havetoinhave the plans the EU countries. Starting Startinginin2009, 2009,a acontinuous continuousgrowth growthboth bothfor forelectricity electricitycapacity capacityand andelectricity electricitygeneration generationcan can bebeobserved (Figure 17). The greatest growth of this indicator can be highlighted between 2013 and observed (Figure 17). The greatest growth of this indicator can be highlighted between 2013 and 2014, increase is is due ininthe 2014,atat126%. 126%.This This increase duetotoseveral severalmajor majorinvestments investments thefield fieldofofbiomass biomassofofwhich whicha a significant one inaugurated is Genesis BIOPARTNER. It is a Romanian holding company formed significant one inaugurated is Genesis BIOPARTNER. It is a Romanian holding company formedinin partnership partnershipwith withBaupartner BaupartnerRomania Romaniaand andVireo VireoEnergy Energyfrom fromSweden Swedenwith withaacapacity capacityofof11MW/h MW/h electric MW/h heat heatand andprocess process tons daily amount of organic substrate. The involved project electricand and 1.2 1.2 MW/h 49 49 tons daily amount of organic substrate. The project involved an investment of approximately million [47]. Another major investment in the field, an investment of approximately 5 million5EUR [47].EUR Another major investment in the field, 11 million 11EUR, million EUR, was made, starting in 2012, by KDF Energy. was made, starting in 2012, by KDF Energy. 4,500.0
500
4,000.0
450
3,500.0
400 350
3,000.0
300
2,500.0
250
2,000.0
200
1,500.0
150
1,000.0
100
500.0
50 0
0.0 2000
2001
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Biomass - Gross inland consumption
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Biomass - Electricity capacity (MW)
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Biomass - Electricity generation (GWh)
Figure 17. Main indicators evolution for biomass, 2000–2016, Source: Own research based on Eurostat Figure 17. Main indicators evolution for biomass, 2000–2016, Source: Own research based on Eurostat data [12]. data [12].
In terms of biomass electricity generation, the most important increase can be observed between Inand terms of biomass the most can be observed between 2009 2010. If in 2009electricity the valuegeneration, of this indicator was important 10 GWh, inincrease 2010 it reached 110 GWh. Another 2009 and 2010. If in 2009 the value of this indicator was 10 GWh, in 2010 it reached 110 GWh. Another significant increase was between 2013 and 2014, from 202 GWh to 454 GWh. significant increase was from between and 2014, 202 GWh to 454 and GWh. Starting in 2010, the 2013 perspective of from primary production gross inland consumption, Starting ina2010, fromcorrelation the perspective primary production inland consumption, it can be seen negative (Figureof18). A bigger value of and grossgross inland consumption is dueitto can be seen a negative correlation (Figure 18). A bigger value of gross inland consumption is to imports in the field of liquid biofuels, because major companies in fuel distribution are foreigndue entities. imports the field of liquid biofuels, because major companies in fuel distribution are foreign For the in analyzed period, the total amount of biogas production was consumed by the domestic market. entities. For the analyzed period, the total amount of biogas production was consumed by the Since 2014, biogas primary production is decreased from 19.3 to 17.7 Mtoe in 2016. domestic market. Since 2014, biogas primary production is decreased from 19.3 to 17.7 Mtoe in 2016.
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300.0
30.0 27.3 257.1 25.0
250.0 224.8 200.0
186.6
203.3
20.0
18.3
19.6
165.1
17.7 167.1
150.0 116.1
128.0
202.9 19.3
15.0
13.1
100.0
10.0 78.8
50.0
5.0 1.3
0.6 1.1
0.0
2007
3.1
2008
2009
0.0
2010
Liquid biofuels - Primary production Biogas - Primary production
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Liquid biofuels - Gross inland consumption
Figure 18. Main indicators evolution for biofuels and biogas, 2007–2016, Source: Own research based Figure 18. Main indicators evolution for biofuels and biogas, 2007–2016, Source: Own research based on Eurostat data [12]. on Eurostat data [12].
The Bio-Based Industries Consortium (BIC) report has identified the main local biomass sources The Bio-Based Industries Consortium (BIC) report has identified the main local biomass sources that could be used as sustainable raw materials for bio-industries as well as key actors in relevant that could be used as sustainable raw materials for bio-industries as well as key actors in relevant sectors and industry-based development opportunities based on these activities [48]. sectors and industry-based development opportunities based on these activities [48]. According to the same report, agriculture and forestry, together with other industries, such as According to the same report, agriculture and forestry, together with other industries, such as food processing, the wood industry, and the paper and pulp industry, can produce large quantities of food processing, the wood industry, and the paper and pulp industry, can produce large quantities waste and other unused or less used materials, being available as raw material for biomass processing of waste and other unused or less used materials, being available as raw material for biomass industries [48]. processing industries [48]. In 2012, Transelectrica reported that there are about 35 MW using agricultural or forestry waste to In 2012, Transelectrica reported that there are about 35 MW using agricultural or forestry waste produce light, which means that the field has already attracted investments of 70 million EUR. to produce light, which means that the field has already attracted investments of 70 million EUR. In 2017, a new state aid scheme to support investments in ‘less exploited’ renewable resources, In 2017, a new state aid scheme to support investments in ‘less exploited’ renewable resources, such as biogas, biomass and geothermal energy, has been approved in Romania. The new support such as biogas, biomass and geothermal energy, has been approved in Romania. The new support scheme from the Romanian government has a total budget of over EUR 100,000 ($107,000). A total scheme from the Romanian government has a total budget of over EUR 100,000 ($107,000). A total of of 85% of the budget comes from the European fund for regional development and 15% from the 85% of the budget comes from the European fund for regional development and 15% from the state’s state’s funds. funds. 5. Perspectives on Renewable Energy Development 5. Perspectives on Renewable Energy Development The renewable energy sources to be stimulated in Romania for the period 2030–2050 are: wind Thehydropower, renewable energy sourcesenergy, to be stimulated Romania for the period 2030–2050 are: wind energy, geothermal biomass, in and solar energy. As previous research has energy, hydropower, geothermal energy, biomass, and solar energy. As previous research has underlined, Romania has the potential for green energy production as follows: 65% for biomass, underlined, Romania for green energy as plants, follows:and 65%2% forfor biomass, 17% 17% for wind energy, has 12%the forpotential solar energy, 4% for smallproduction hydropower geothermal for wind energy, 12% for solar energy, 4% for small hydropower plants, and 2% for geothermal energy [49]. energy [49]. Moreover, the European Parliament voted for a project that requires 35% of Europe’s energy Moreover,inthe European Parliament voted for a project that requires 35% of Europe's consumption 2030 to be renewable. Each Member State will have a target from which it energy will be consumption in 2030 to be renewable. Each Member State will have a target from which it will be able to deviate by a maximum of 10%, under certain conditions, including Romania. In 2030, each EU able to deviate by a maximum of 10%, under certain conditions, including Romania. In 2030, each EU Member State will have to ensure that 12% of the energy consumed in the transport sector comes from Member State will have to ensure that 12% of the energy consumed in the transport sector comes renewable sources. from According renewable to sources. a map compiled by the National Meteorological Administration, this potential is According to a map compiled by the National Meteorological Administration, this potential is allocated zonal as follows: allocated zonal as follows: 1. Danube Delta—photovoltaic; 1. Danube Delta—photovoltaic; 2. Dobrogea—wind and photovoltaic; 2. Dobrogea—wind and photovoltaic; 3. Moldova—small hydropower, wind and biomass;
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3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8.
Moldova—small hydropower, wind and biomass; 4. Carpathians Mountains—biomass and small hydropower; Carpathians Mountains—biomass and small hydropower; 5. Transylvania—small hydropower; Transylvania—small hydropower; 6. Western Plain—geothermal; Western Plain—geothermal; 7. Subcarpathian—biomass and small hydropower; and Subcarpathian—biomass and small hydropower; and 8. Romanian plain—biomass, geothermal and photovoltaic. Romanian plain—biomass, geothermal and photovoltaic. In order to encourage companies and householders to develop such systems, the Romanian In order to encourage and such householders to develop suchmarket, systems, the Romanian government has createdcompanies support tools as the green certificates investment financing government has created support tools such as the green certificates market, investment financing solutions, or incentive regulatory framework. solutions,Policies or incentive regulatory framework. continue to support renewable electricity worldwide, increasingly through competitive Policies continue to support renewable electricity worldwide, increasingly auctions rather than feed-in tariffs, and the transformation of the powerthrough sector competitive is amplified by auctions rather than feed-in tariffs, and the transformation of the power sector is amplified millions millions of households, communities and businesses investing directly in distributedby solar PV. of households, communities and businesses investing directly in distributed solar PV. The electricity produced in Romania, between 2011 and 2015, increased by approximately 4.5%, The the electricity produced in Romania,emissions between 2011 increased by approximately 4.5%, by and reduction in greenhouse-gas fromand the 2015, electricity production process decreased and 5.8 the million reduction in greenhouse-gas emissions from the electricity production process decreased tons. This decrease reflects the change-over in the electricity production process,byfrom 5.8 million tons. decreasecoal, reflects change-over in thefrom electricity production process, from fossilwind fossil fuels, This particularly to the electricity generated renewable sources, in particular, fuels,power. particularly coal, to electricity generated from renewable sources, in particular, wind power. For 2030, the estimations show a more significant increase onlyonly for energy consumption in the For 2030, the estimations show a more significant increase for energy consumption in the machine, machinery, and equipment industry, respectively, in freight transport. Heating consumption machine, machinery, and equipment industry, respectively, in freight transport. Heating is likely to decrease increasing energy consumption is slightly likely toby decrease slightly by efficiency. increasing energy efficiency. In the medium and long term, an increase in e-mobility is expected, eliminating exhaust fumes, In the medium and long term, an increase in e-mobility is expected, eliminating exhaust fumes, especially in the urban environment. For the electric vehicle to contribute substantially to reducing especially in the urban environment. For the electric vehicle to contribute substantially to reducing air pollution, the energy transition to renewable energy sources and and otherother low-emission electricity air pollution, the energy transition to renewable energy sources low-emission electricity technologies, or sustainable technologies for for storing significant amounts of of electricity, will have technologies, or sustainable technologies storing significant amounts electricity, will havetoto be be completed. completed. For For the year 2030, an an optimal scenario shows a decrease the year 2030, optimal scenario shows a decreaseininnatural naturalgas gastoto106 106 TWh TWh (27%), (27%), the the maintenance of crude oil consumption (26%) and the reduction of coal’s contribution. Instead, maintenance of crude oil consumption (26%) and the reduction of coal's contribution. Instead, the the contribution is is doubled and energy from biomass (including biogas) increases to to contributionofofnuclear nuclearenergy energy doubled and energy from biomass (including biogas) increases 51 TWh. Renewable energy capacities in electricity generation grow to 37 TWh (Figure 19). 51 TWh. Renewable energy capacities in electricity generation grow to 37 TWh (Figure 19).
Biomass/Waste
Hydro
Wind
Photovoltaic
Geothermal
2030 (GWh)
2015 (GWh)
Figure 19. Renewable energy mix evolution between and 2030, Source: research Figure 19. Renewable energy mix evolution between 2015 2015 and 2030, Source: OwnOwn research basedbased on on ANRE data [20]. ANRE data [20].
For For Romania, frequent changes to the Green Certificates support scheme in recent years, Romania, frequent changes to the Green Certificates support scheme in recent years, aggregated with the country-specific risk of an emerging economy, place the cost of RES capital aggregated with the country-specific risk of an emerging economy, place the cost of RES capital at at one ofof the highest levels inin the EU. Therefore, there is is a risk that Romania’s equitable participation one the highest levels the EU. Therefore, there a risk that Romania's equitable participation in in meeting the EU’s common targets forfor RES inin 2030 will bebe costly. meeting the EU's common targets RES 2030 will costly.
Access to the current green certificates support scheme closed at the end of 2016, so new investments in wind, photovoltaic, micro-hydro power, or biomass capacities are unlikely in the period 2017–2020, except those receiving co-financing from European Structural Funds.
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Access to the current green certificates support scheme closed at the end of 2016, so new investments in wind, photovoltaic, micro-hydro power, or biomass capacities are unlikely in the period 2017–2020, except those receiving co-financing from European Structural Funds. In an optimistic scenario, after 2020, Romania is succeeding in attracting investment in new RES-based capacities by reducing capital costs without the need for new support schemes. This development enhances competitiveness in attracting investment in related industries. Under low capital cost and without a support scheme, a gradual increase of 1500 MW wind power and 1400 MW of photovoltaic capacity over the 2020–2030 period is projected. In total, the increase in RES-based capacity between 2017 and 2030 will be lower than in 2011–2016. Biomass occupies a central place in the electricity mix, but the development potential is still high, especially through efficiency and the introduction of new technologies such as biorefineries and biogas production capacities. Judicious management of the forest fund is a basic condition for the energetic use of wood. Geothermal and solar resources are only marginally exploited in Romania, with substantial potential for increasing the use of these resources in the future decades. Biomass is the main form of RES in Romania’s energy mix and will retain this role in the long run. After 2030, the analysis of the potential for biomass development at European level indicates the possibility of a considerable increase of the surface area used in Romania effectively in annual and perennial lignocelluloses cultures. Total biomass production in Romania could increase from 47 TWh in 2015 to 184 TWh in 2050, of which 119 TWh are lignocellulose biomass cultures. Thus, biomass could become Romania’s main energy product, as much of it could be for exports, after transformation into finished energy products with high added value. The problem of waste management will be solved by transforming into energy products, biogas production, and energy-producing oils, but the resulting volume is lower than the potential of lignocelluloses plants. A 45 TWh increase in RES is allocated, almost equal between wind, solar, and geothermal. Hydropower is not expected to increase substantially, but growth is not excluded if new investments are made in hydroelectric power plants on the main water courses—the greatest potential is still on the Danube. There is also a need for strategies to ensure energy security. Thus, by 2030, Romania should streamline the capacity and the way of electricity production. Modern and flexible technologies are required to deliver optimal energy and reduce carbon emissions. The digitization of the entire sector, especially in terms of transport and distribution of energy should be considered. The production of biofuels and biogas has a high potential. In 2015, the production was 1500 GWh for biofuels and 450 GWh for biogas. For 2030, the modeling results indicate an increase of 4100 GWh of biofuels, amid the development of the agricultural sector and, to a lesser extent, the upgrading of sewage treatment plants. These values can help to reach the national required target for 2020 of 10% RES share in the transport sector. Waste energy production may increase in Romania, but the focus should be on selective collection, recycling, and recycling of raw materials rather than incineration. In the short term, the following measures are proposed to ensure the development of the energy sector: strategic stocks and enough capacity reserves; ensuring the calibration of the National Energy System; balancing, backup, and storage systems; protection of critical infrastructure from cyber-attacks or terrorism. Long-term domestic measures refer to: increasing the capacity of energy governance—legislation, regulations, and administrative acts; maintaining a diversified and balanced energy mix as well as a high level of demand-side coverage with internal resources; maintaining an integrated nuclear cycle and providing expertise in the nuclear field; completing investment in transport and distribution networks in order to increase their efficiency and achieve the transition to smart grids; and reducing energy poverty, including by increasing energy efficiency for vulnerable consumers. From the GHG reduction perspective, Romania can propose a series of targets that can be achieved by 2050 with the improvements and adjustments presented below (Table 5).
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Table 5. Decarbonization targets for 2020, 2030, and 2050. Indicator GHG reduction GHG reduction—non-ETS (Emission Trading System) Share of RES Share of RES–energy Share of RES–transportation Energy intensity
Unit
2015
2020
2030
2050
% compared to 1990
54
55
62
75
% compared to 2005
8
0
2
30
26.3 43.7 4.6 319
24 44 10 300
27 55 13 170
47 78 60 50
% % % toe/mil €2013
Source: Own research based on Eurostat, World Bank and IRENA data [24,32]
Based on actual perspectives of development for the energy sector, the GHG reduction compared to 1990 will be only 75%. The European target for this indicator is 80%, but Romania can have a reasonable contribution. It is expected that Romania reaches the 10% target for the share of RES in transportation by 2020. If by 2020, the increase in the RES–transportation share will be supported by the biofuel mix in petrol and diesel until the 10% target is reached; in 2020–2030, the share of RES–transportation will grow especially because of the increase in the share of electric mobility, on the railway and road segments. For Romania, an 80% GHG reduction by 2050 is not excluded, but it is possible only by maturing new technologies, along with cost savings. The energy sector contributes essentially to the development of Romania through its profound influence on the competitiveness of the economy, the quality of life, and the environment. The Romanian energy sector needs to become more robust economically, technologically advanced, and less polluting in order to sustain long-term consumer expectations. There are five major themes that are highlighted that should be developed until 2030, including: (1) storage and energy mix; (2) infrastructure; (3) the role of biomass in households heating; (4) increasing buildings energy efficiency; or (5) mitigating energy poverty. 6. Conclusions Several factors are making Romania emerge as an attractive and alternative location for renewable energy investors who are increasingly concerned about lower returns from more established markets in the Western European countries. It can be observed that electricity demand in Romania declined starting with the 1990s and several older thermal power stations have been decommissioned. In the last years, due to the fact that Romania registered a continuous economic growth, the economy expands, and the demand is steadily growing. This trend is expected to continue in future decades. Therefore, Romania was able to meet its target of covering 24% of its final energy consumption from renewable sources much in advance (2013) of the 2020 deadline. A 7% primary energy demand is estimated between 2030 and 2050, from 394 to 365 TWh. The share of fossil fuels in the primary energy mix also drops, from 61% to 47%, being replaced by RES, increasing from 22% to 35%. Romania cannot assume an ambitious RES target for 2030, the target proposed to the European Commission is 27%. A faster increase in the share of RES is possible, but it could compromise the objective of raising the quality of life in rural areas. Romania could introduce a support mechanism for developing the potential of biomass in modern and efficient forms, but further development of photovoltaic and solar photovoltaic parks will continue only when the cost of these technologies makes them competitive without support schemes. This is expected to take place in the next decade, so new photovoltaic and photovoltaic capacities will be built in Romania even in the absence of a support scheme after 2020. The modeling results confirm a gradual but more sustained increase in capacity wind and photovoltaic for the entire 2020–2030 period.
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Author Contributions: Conceptualization: S¸ .D.C. and A.C.; data curation: A.C.-D.; formal analysis: M.T.F.; funding acquisition: C.S.M.; investigation: A.C. and A.C.-D.; methodology: S¸ .D.C. and A.C.; project administration: S¸ .D.C. and A.C.; Resources, C.S.M., A.C., A.C.-D., and M.T.F.; supervision: S¸ .D.C.; validation: C.S.M.; Visualization, C.S.M. and M.T.F.; writing—original draft: A.C. and A.C.-D.; writing—review and editing: S¸ .D.C. and C.S.M. Funding: This research and the APC was funded by the project “ESPESA—Electromechanical Systems and Power Electronics for Sustainable Applications”, Horizon 2020, project number 692224. Conflicts of Interest: The authors declare no conflict of interest.
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