Development of a Dynamic Intelligent Speed

0 downloads 0 Views 909KB Size Report
Intelligent speed adaptation (ISA) is a promising technology to dynamically limit vehicles ... 2012 Published by Elsevier Ltd. Selection and/or peer review under ...
Available online at www.sciencedirect.com

Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 48 (2012) 2111 – 2120

7UDQVSRUW5HVHDUFK$UHQD±(XURSH

'HYHORSPHQWRIDG\QDPLF,QWHOOLJHQW6SHHG$GDSWDWLRQ ,6$  9DQ%DR7DD 0LFKHO9HUJHE1D]LK0HFKEDOE*XLFKRQ'RPLQLTXHD6DOLP 6UDLULD D

(QJLQHHULQJ&HQWHURIÌOH'H)UDQFH6FLHQWLILFDQG7HFKQLFDO1HWZRUN 567 )UHQFK0LQLVWU\RI7UDQVSRUW 7HLVVHUHQFGH%RUW6WUHHW7UDSSHV)UDQFH E /DERUDWRLUHGH0pFDQLTXHGHV6WUXFWXUHVHWGHV3URFpGpV /063²805&156 (FROH1DWLRQDOH6XSpULHXUHGHV$UWVHW0pWLHUV (16$03DULVWHFK %RXOHYDUGGHO¶+{SLWDO3DULV)UDQFH

$EVWUDFW ,QWHOOLJHQW VSHHG DGDSWDWLRQ ,6$  LV D SURPLVLQJ WHFKQRORJ\ WR G\QDPLFDOO\ OLPLW YHKLFOHV VSHHG ,QGHHG LW FDQ SURYLGHWKHDXWKRUL]HGVSHHGOLPLWVYDOXHVWRWKHGULYHUV7KHLQWHUHVWRIWKLVNLQGRIV\VWHPLVLWVHPEHGGHGFKDUDFWHU LQRUGHUWRLQIRUPGULYHUVLQOLYH7KDW¶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³G\QDPLF´ EHFDXVH LW KDV WKH DGYDQWDJH WR GLVSOD\ VKRUWWLPH VSHHG OLPLWV 6LPXODWLRQ UHVXOWV DQG H[SHULPHQWDOUHVXOWVZLOODOVREHLQFOXGHG



© 2012 Published by Elsevier Ltd. Selection and/or peer review under responsibility of the Programme Committee of the ‹3XEOLVKHGE\(OVHYLHU/WG6HOHFWLRQDQGSHHUUHYLHZXQGHUUHVSRQVLELOLW\RI75$ Transport Research Arena 2012 Open access under CC BY-NC-ND license.



.H\ZRUGV,QWHOOLJHQWVSHHGDGDSWDWLRQORFDOL]DWLRQ*36V\VWHP.DOPDQILOWHUSUHGLFWLYHPRGHOPDSPDWFKLQJHPEHGGHG V\VWHPZHEDSSOLFDWLRQ

,QWURGXFWLRQ ([FHVVLYHVSHHGLVRQHRIWKHPRVWLPSRUWDQW IDFWRUVRIDFFLGHQWLQ)UDQFH+RZHYHULWLVQRW PHDQ WKDWGULYHUVDUHDOZD\VFRQVFLRXVRIH[FHVVLYHVSHHG2QHRIWKHVROXWLRQVLVWKH,6$V\VWHPZKLFKZLOO 

&RUUHVSRQGLQJDXWKRU7HO (PDLODGGUHVVYDQEDRWD#GHYHORSSHPHQWGXUDEOHJRXYIU

1877-0428 © 2012 Published by Elsevier Ltd. Selection and/or peer review under responsibility of the Programme Committee of the Transport Research Arena 2012 Open access under CC BY-NC-ND license. doi:10.1016/j.sbspro.2012.06.1184

2112

Van-Bao Ta et al. / Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 48 (2012) 2111 – 2120

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¶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x,QIRUPDWLYHPRGHWKHGULYHULVVLPSO\LQIRUPHGRIWKHFXUUHQWVSHHGOLPLW x9ROXQWDU\ DFWLYH PRGH WKH DFFHOHUDWRU SHGDO ZLOO KDYH QR HIIHFW EH\RQG WKH WKUHVKROG VSHHG OLPLWDQGGULYHUZLOOEHDEOHWRSXWWKLVUHVWULFWLRQRII x)RUFHG DFWLYH PRGH LW LV LGHQWLFDO WR WKH SUHYLRXV PRGH H[FHSW WKDW WKH GULYHU FDQQRW VKXW WKH V\VWHPGRZQ 7RGD\WKHPDLQSUREOHPIRUWKHVHV\VWHPVLVWRXSGDWHWKHLQIRUPDWLRQLQWKHGDWDEDVH 6WDWHRIWKHDUW 7KH1RUZHJLDQ3XEOLF5RDGV$GPLQLVWUDWLRQ>@KDVPDGHDURDGGDWDEDVHWKDWFRQWDLQVVSHHGOLPLWV DGGUHVVHV DQG JHRPHWULHV LQ RUGHU WR VWRUH URDG DWWULEXWHV DQG PDQDJH WKH QHWZRUN 7KH GDWDEDVH LV XSGDWHGWZLFHD\HDU7KLVILUVWH[SHULPHQWXQGHUOLQHGWKHPDQDJHPHQWSUREOHPRIWKHGDWDEDVHDQGDOVR WKHZD\WRXSGDWHWKHV\VWHP,Q)OHPLVK7UDQVSRUWDWLRQ0LQLVWU\HODERUDWHGDWUDIILFVLJQVGDWDEDVH ORFDWHGE\WKHLUFRRUGLQDWHV>@2QFHDJDLQXSGDWLQJWKHGDWDEDVHLVVWLOOGUDZQRXW  $QRWKHU(XURSHDQSURMHFW526$77(DLPVWRKDYHDKDUPRQL]HGVSHHGOLPLWVGDWDEDVH526$77( FRQVLVWHG RI WKH GHYHORSPHQW RI DQ LQWHJUDWHG VHW RI LQWHURSHUDEOH WRROV IRU GLJLWDO VWRUDJH DQG PDLQWHQDQFHRIURDGDWWULEXWHVIRUGDWDH[FKDQJHDQGLQWHJUDWLRQ>@>@

Van-Bao Ta et al. / Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 48 (2012) 2111 – 2120

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³QHDUO\FRQVWDQWYHORFLW\´ 1&9 PRGHO>@>@7KHYHORFLW\YHFWRUFDOFXODWHGIURPWKH

2113

2114

Van-Bao Ta et al. / Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 48 (2012) 2111 – 2120

ODVWWZRSRVLWLRQVSURYLGHGE\WKH*36HQDEOHVXVWRGHWHUPLQHWKHPRYHPHQWGLUHFWLRQDQGDQHVWLPDWLRQ RIWKHQH[WSRVLWLRQFRRUGLQDWHV6XSSRVHDVWDWHYHFWRU;          [  LVWKH[D[LVRIWKHYHKLFOHDWLQVWDQWW\  LVWKH\D[LVRIWKHYHKLFOHY[  LVWKH[YHORFLW\DQGY\   LVWKH\YHORFLW\6WDWHHTXDWLRQVFDQEHZULWWHQE\WKHVHUHODWLRQV  

 







   Z  LVD*DXVVLDQZKLWHQRLVHSURFHVVDQGLWVFRYDULDQFHPDWUL[LV™ZY  UHSUHVHQWVWKHVHQVRUQRLVH DQGLWVFRYDULDQFHPDWUL[LV™Y<  LVWKHRXWSXWRIWKHV\VWHPLWUHSUHVHQWVZKDWZHZDQWWRREVHUYHKLV WKH RXWSXW IXQFWLRQ $V ZH ZDQW WR UHWULHYH WKH VWDWH WKDW¶V WR VD\ ;   K FRUUHVSRQGV WR WKH LGHQWLW\ IXQFWLRQ 7KLV PRGHO PHDQV WKDW WKH WDUJHW YHORFLW\ LV JHQHUDOO\ FRQVWDQW H[FHSW YLD SHUWXUEDWLRQV WR LWV DFFHOHUDWLRQWKURXJKZ    7DNLQJLQWRDFFRXQWWKHVDPSOLQJSHULRGWHZKLFKLVWKHLQVWDQWEHWZHHQWZR*36 PHDVXUHPHQWVWKH GLVFUHWL]DWLRQRIWKHVWDWHHTXDWLRQHQDEOHVXVWRZULWH       

  



 

  1H[WSRLQWSUHVHQWVVLPXODWLRQUHVXOWVZLWKWKH1&9PRGHO 0RGHOLQJIRUUHFWLOLQHDUPRYHPHQW 6XSSRVHDYHKLFOHWUDYHOLQJRQDUHFWLOLQHDUURDGDWDFRQVWDQWVSHHGRINPK:HVLPXODWHWKH*36 VLJQDOVE\DGGLQJD*DXVVLDQZKLWHQRLVHWRWKHYHKLFOHUHDOSRVLWLRQV)RU1&9PRGHOVLPXODWLRQUHVXOWV DUHSUHVHQWHGLQWKHQH[WILJXUHV 

2115

Van-Bao Ta et al. / Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 48 (2012) 2111 – 2120









)LJ D 6LPXODWLRQVREWDLQHGE\WKH1&9PRGHOIRUDUHFWLOLQHDU E 6LPXODWLRQVREWDLQHGIRUDVLPXODWLRQRI*36FXWRII WUDMHFWRU\ZLWKRXW*36FXWRII

)RUWKHILJDZHILUVWFDQVHHWKDWWKHSDWKSURYLGHGE\WKH*36 JUHHQ QDWXUDOO\JLYHVDQHUURUEXW VWLOO UHODWLYHO\ QHDU WR WKH UHDO WUDMHFWRU\ UHG  7KH SUHGLFWHG SDWK EOXH  YDULHV ZLGHO\ ,QGHHG ZKHQ PHDVXUHPHQWV IURP *36 DUH FRQVLVWHQW WKH SUHGLFWLRQV DUH JRRG +RZHYHU ZKHQ WKH *36 VLJQDOV DUH GHJUDGHGWKHHVWLPDWLRQVVKRZXVVLJQLILFDQWHUURUV  )RUWKHILJESUHGLFWLRQVUHPDLQXQFHUWDLQZKHQZHVLPXODWHD*36FXWRIIIRU[ȯ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

 )LJ:LWKRXW*36FXWRII JUHHQ DQGZLWK*36FXWRII EOXH VLPXODWLRQVREWDLQHGZLWKWKH1&9PRGHOIRUDFXUYHURDG 

2116

Van-Bao Ta et al. / Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 48 (2012) 2111 – 2120

&RUUHFWLRQE\,Q2I2UGHU.DOPDQ 2QHRIWKHLPSOLFLWK\SRWKHVHVRIVLPSOH.DOPDQILOWHULVWKDWVDPSOLQJSHULRGDVVXPHGWREHFRQVWDQW +RZHYHULQSUDFWLFH*36PHDVXUHVDUULYHZLWKVRPHGHOD\GXHWRWKHFRPSXWDWLRQSURFHVVRUWUDQVSRUW LQIRUPDWLRQ WLPH 7KXV EHFDXVH RI D YDULDEOH VDPSOH SHULRG WKH VWDWH V\VWHP EHFRPHV QRQOLQHDU ,W PHDQVWKDWWKHVLPSOH.DOPDQILOWHULVQRWDSSOLFDEOHLQUHDOFDVH7KDW¶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x ,QLWLDOL]DWLRQ 3  DQG [  DUHIL[HG x x

8SGDWHWLPH WS W[W[ WPDQGW W[WS &DOFXODWLRQRIVLJPDSRLQWV 

)RUL «Q]





   

:LWK3]] GLDJ 3NN4N DQGQ] GLP [N  x 8SGDWHWLPHRIWKHVWDWHHVWLPDWLRQ  x x

x





 

8SGDWHWKHHUURUFRYDULDQFH

   3[ W[ $ W 3[ W $ W 7 7UDQVIRUPDWLRQRIVLJPDSRLQWVRXWSXWHTXDWLRQ     &DOFXODWLRQRIWKHRXWSXWFRYDULDQFH



  

 

  

 

      

x x

&DOFXODWLRQRILQWHUFRYDULDQFH  6WHS&RUUHFWLRQ

   



  

  

         

    :H WKHQ VLPXODWH WKLV ILOWHU IRU D UHFWLOLQHDU WUDMHFWRU\ :H WU\ WR FRPSDUH WKH SHUIRUPDQFH RI WKH VLPSOH.DOPDQILOWHU UHG DQGWKH,QRI2UGHU.DOPDQILOWHU EOXH E\SORWWLQJWKHSRVLWLRQLQJHUURUVLQ ERWK FDVHV LQ )LJXUH  ,W FOHDUO\ VKRZV XV WKDW WKH HVWLPDWLRQ HUURUV ZLWK WKH ,QRI2UGHU .DOPDQ DUH QHDUHUWR]HURDQGLWVFRQYHUJHQFHLVIDVWHUWKDQWKHVLPSOH.DOPDQILOWHU  

Van-Bao Ta et al. / Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 48 (2012) 2111 – 2120











)LJ3RVLWLRQLQJHUURUVEHWZHHQVLPSOH.DOPDQILOWHU UHG DQG.DOPDQ,QRI2UGHUILOWHU EOXH LQFRPSDULVRQWRYHKLFOHUHDO SRVLWLRQV

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x5HWULHYH WKH YHKLFOH SRVLWLRQV:HXVH*36GDWD ZKHQLWLVDYDLODEOH,I QRWWKHSUHGLFWHGSRVLWLRQV ZLOOEHXVHG x,GHQWLILFDWLRQ SRO\OLQHV FDQGLGDWHV :H GUDZ D EXIIHU FHQWHUHG WR WKH FDU DQG ZLWK DW OHDVW D UDGLXV FRUUHVSRQGLQJ WR WKH *36 VHQVLWLYLW\ DERXW P  $OO VHFWLRQV LQWHUFHSWLQJ WKH EXIIHU DUH FDQGLGDWH VHJPHQWV x:HLJKW WR WKH QHDUHVW SRO\OLQH,WLVQDWXUDOWRWKLQNWKDW WKHQHDUHVWSRO\OLQH PDWFKHVWRWKHFXUUHQW VHFWLRQ7KDWLVZK\ZHDSSO\WKHODUJHVWZHLJKW :  IRUWKHFORVHVWVHFWLRQWRWKHSUHVXSSRVHG YHKLFOH SRVLWLRQV )RU WKH UHPDLQLQJ VHFWLRQV ZH DSSO\ ZHLJKWV EDVHG RQ WKH GLVWDQFH WR YHKLFOH SRVLWLRQV : LIGLVW YHKLFOHVHFWLRQ P : LIGLVW YHKLFOHVHFWLRQ P : LIGLVW YHKLFOHVHFWLRQ P x:HLJKWIRUSRO\OLQHFRQWLQXLW\:LVDSSOLHGWRDOOVHFWLRQVZKLFKKDYHDQLQWHUVHFWLRQSRLQWZLWKWKH PD[LPXPZHLJKWSRO\OLQHRISUHYLRXVLQVWDQW :  ,IWKHFXUUHQWFDQGLGDWHSRO\OLQHLVWKHVDPHDV LQWKHSUHYLRXVVWHSWKHPD[LPXPZHLJKWRILVDSSOLHG,QRWKHUFDVHV:LVHTXDOWR]HUR x:HLJKWIRUVSHHGFRQWLQXLW\,IWKHFDQGLGDWHSRO\OLQHVVSHHGOLPLWVDUHWKHVDPHDVWKHSUHYLRXVRQH : 2WKHUZLVHWKHZHLJKW:LVHTXDOWR]HUR x:HLJKW WR WKH QHDUHVW SRO\OLQH ,I WKH FORVHVW SRO\OLQH LV QRW WKH PD[LPDO ZHLJKW VHFWLRQ ZH DGG D ZHLJKW: 7KLVZHLJKWLQWHQGVWROLPLWWKHSUREOHPVRISDUDOOHOURDGV x7RWDOZHLJKW)RUHDFKSRO\OLQHZHFRPSXWH:WRW :::::HUHWDLQWKHPD[LPDORQH  ,QRUGHUWRWHVWWKHPDSPDWFKLQJDOJRULWKPZHVLPXODWHYHKLFOHSRVLWLRQRQDUHJXODUWULS5HVXOWVDUH SUHVHQWHGLQWKHQH[WWDEOH

2117

2118

Van-Bao Ta et al. / Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 48 (2012) 2111 – 2120

7DEOH3HUIRUPDQFHIRU0DS0DWFKLQJDOJRULWKPVLPXODWLRQVLQVHYHUDOFDVHV 7\SHRIVLPXODWLRQ

&RUUHFW0DS PDWFKLQJ

6LPSOHPDSPDWFKLQJ



:HLJKWLQJPDSPDWFKLQJ



.DOPDQ,Q2I2UGHU:HLJKWLQJPDSPDWFKLQJ



 :H VHH WKDW WKH VLPSOH DOJRULWKP PDSPDWFKLQJ ZKLFK MXVW FRQVLVWV WR ILQG WKH FORVHVW VHFWLRQ LV WKH OHVVHIILFLHQWZLWKFRUUHFWHGPDWFKHGVHFWLRQV0RVWHUURUVDUHJHQHUDOO\ORFDWHGDWWKHLQWHUVHFWLRQV SDUDOOHO URDGV DQG WKH URXQGDERXWV 7KH ZHLJKWLQJ PDSPDWFKLQJ DOJRULWKP FDQ OLPLW VRPH RI WKHVH HUURUV:HJHWIRUWKHVLPXODWLRQDVXFFHVVUDWHRIDERXW7KHODVWVLPXODWLRQZDVDFRUUHFWLRQRI*36 GDWDZLWKDQ,Q2I2UGHU.DOPDQILOWHUFRPELQLQJZLWKDZHLJKWLQJPDSPDWFKLQJDOJRULWKP5HVXOWVDUH EHWWHUZLWKDFRUUHFWPDWFKLQJUDWHRI ([SHULPHQWDOUHVXOWV :H GHFLGHG IRU WKH H[SHULPHQWDO WR ZRUN RQ D GDWDEDVH HVSHFLDOO\ FUHDWHG IRU WKH WHVWV ([SHULPHQWDWLRQV WRRN SODFH DW WKH &(7( ,OH'H)UDQFH :H ILUVW GLJLWL]H WKH GLIIHUHQW VHFWLRQV LQ WKH GDWDEDVH 





)LJ0RGHOLQJWKH&(7(,OHGH)UDQFHVLWHIRUDQH[SHULPHQWDOWHVW



йĞƌƌŽƌŽĨŵĂƚĐŚŝŶŐ

:HILUVWWHVWDVLPSOHPDSPDWFKLQJDOJRULWKPZLWKWKHUDZ*36GDWD:HKDYHSHUIRUPHGLWVHYHUDO WLPHVZLWKGLIIHUHQWVSHHGV7KHUHVXOWVDUHVKRZQEHORZ Ϭ͕ϴ Ϭ͕ϲ Ϭ͕ϰ Ϭ͕Ϯ Ϭ ϬͲϭϬ ϭϬͲϭϱ ϭϱͲϮϬ ϮϬͲϮϱ ϮϱͲϯϬ ϯϬͲϰϬ ϰϬͲϱϬ ^ƉĞĞĚ;ŬŵͬŚͿ

 )LJ0DWFKLQJHUURUVLQIXQFWLRQRIYHKLFOHVSHHGZLWKUDZ*36GDWD

Van-Bao Ta et al. / Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 48 (2012) 2111 – 2120

йĞƌƌŽƌŽĨŵĂƚĐŚŝŶŐ

 (UURUVWHQGWRLQFUHDVHZLWKVSHHG7KXVDORZVSHHG NPK SURYLGHVDERXWRIFRUUHFWUHVXOWV %HWZHHQDQGNPKWKHDSSOLFDWLRQSURYLGHVRIFRUUHFWVSHHGV%H\RQGHUURUVDUHKLJKHURYHU  7ZR FDWHJRULHV RI HUURUV HPHUJH IURP WKLV H[SHULPHQWDWLRQ WKH *36 VLJQDO LV SRRU VR WKDW WKH DSSOLFDWLRQFRXOGQRWILQGWKHULJKWVHFWLRQWKHULJKWVSHHGKDVEHHQIRXQGEXWWKHVPDUWSKRQHGLVSOD\HGLW WRRODWH :HWKHQSHUIRUPWKHVDPHH[SHULPHQWDWLRQXVLQJWKHZHLJKWLQJPDSPDWFKLQJDOJRULWKP7KHUHVXOWV DUHVXPPDUL]HGEHORZ Ϭ͕ϲ Ϭ͕ϰ Ϭ͕Ϯ Ϭ ϬͲϭϬ ϭϬͲϭϱ ϭϱͲϮϬ ϮϬͲϮϱ ϮϱͲϯϬ ϯϬͲϰϬ ϰϬͲϱϬ ^ƉĞĞĚ;ŬŵͬŚͿ

 )LJ0DWFKLQJHUURUVLQIXQFWLRQRIYHKLFOHVSHHGZLWKZHLJKWLQJPDSPDWFKLQJDOJRULWKP 

йĞƌƌŽƌŽĨŵĂƚĐŚŝŶŐ

:HKDYHIHZHUVSHHGOLPLWVHUURUV%XWIRUKLJKVSHHGVHUURUVDUHVWLOOLPSRUWDQW DURXQGIRU NPK 7KHPDWFKLQJFDQUHGXFHDERXWWRRIHUURUVZKLFKLVVLJQLILFDQW )LQDOO\ZHSHUIRUPWKHODVWH[SHULPHQWE\DSSO\LQJWKHDOJRULWKPZKLFKFRPELQHVDPDSPDWFKLQJ DQGDILOWHU Ϭ͕ϲ Ϭ͕ϰ Ϭ͕Ϯ Ϭ ϬͲϭϬ ϭϬͲϭϱ ϭϱͲϮϬ ϮϬͲϮϱ ϮϱͲϯϬ ϯϬͲϰϬ ϰϬͲϱϬ ^ƉĞĞĚ;ŬŵͬŚͿ

 )LJ([SHULPHQWDOUHVXOWVZLWKVLPSOH.DOPDQILOWHUFRPELQLQJWKHZHLJKWLQJPDSPDWFKLQJDOJRULWKP 

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

2119

2120

Van-Bao Ta et al. / Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 48 (2012) 2111 – 2120

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p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±'*



Suggest Documents