Available online at www.sciencedirect.com
ScienceDirect Procedia Engineering 165 (2016) 1046 – 1051
15th International scientific conference “Underground Urbanisation as a Prerequisite for Sustainable Development”
Development of the scientific and methodological assessment tools of sustainability of the investment and construction complex in Russia and its structural elements in terms of organizational and economic changes Vadim Kankhva a,*, Svetlana Uvarova b, Svetlana Belyaeva b a Moscow State University of Civil Engineering, Yaroslavskoye sh. 26, Moscow, 129337, Russia Voronezh State University of Architecture and Civil Engineering, 20-letya Oktiabrya, Voronezh, 843940, Russia
b
Abstract In order to develop scientific and methodological tools for sustainable development of the construction complex in Russia the authors justified the concept of economic sustainability, made system components simulation, proposed an assessment method. The article presents proposals of the methodology testing in relation to the definition of the sustainability of a construction company and the construction sector of the economy in Russia. The methodology implementation allows to objectively assess the degree of stability in order to forecast future dynamics while economic conditions changing, to identify priorities for state support and the development of strategies for organizational and economic reforms. 2016The TheAuthors. Authors. Published by Elsevier © 2016 © Published by Elsevier Ltd. Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the 15th International scientific conference “Underground Peer-review under scientific committee of the 15th International scientific conference “Underground Urbanisation as a Urbanisation as aresponsibility Prerequisite of forthe Sustainable Development. Prerequisite for Sustainable Development Keywords: Investment and construction complex, integral approach, organizational and economic change, construction company economic sustainability, assessing sustainability criteria.
* Corresponding author. Tel.: +7-903-233-52-32. E-mail address:
[email protected]
1877-7058 © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the 15th International scientific conference “Underground Urbanisation as a Prerequisite for Sustainable Development
doi:10.1016/j.proeng.2016.11.818
Vadim Kankhva et al. / Procedia Engineering 165 (2016) 1046 – 1051
1. Introduction An investment and construction complex plays a key role in achieving of the sustainable development in Russia. One of the tasks at the level of the controlled subsystem is to promote the improvement of the economic stability of the system in order to increase competitiveness of domestic ICC participants, as well as the support of small businesses under the conditions of globalization, and also the efficiency improvement of the capital construction on the basis of the rational use of investment resources. It is also very important to develop a scientific and methodological tools which measures up high standards of modern requirements to assess the level of construction companies economic sustainability as a basic hierarchy level of the ICC management system. The problem of construction sustainability assessment has been developed by many domestic and foreign experts [1,2,4]. In general, all the methodology on the enterprise economic sustainability assessment available in the scientific and practical literature can be divided into calculation, expert and calculation-expert. Most existing methods of the enterprises sustainability assessment have the signs of subjectivity due to the use of expert methods. In addition, the need for an unambiguous calculation interpretation of the assessment criteria proposed by experts cannot fully allow to consider the effect of the integral factors. In order to get rid of the existing weaknesses we have proposed an algorithm for the assessment of the economic sustainability in construction by means of the calculation method based on the use of the integral approach to investment. Integral approach involves the perception of assets and liabilities of the company (in general other benefits) as the elements of a single whole the combination, informing about risk and return characteristics that can allow effectively analyze the opportunities and optimization of economic risks parameters. 2. Experimental part Thus, among the methods used by the authors to solve the problem of forming an algorithm for the sustainability assessment of the investment and construction system and its structural elements, the following methods are identified: the integral approach, econometrics, stochastic forecasting, the theory of probability, the theory of optimization and simulation, expert evaluation. So, in our opinion, such a range of economic and mathematical methods would create an objective methodology for assessment and also less subjective expert judgments. The investment and construction complex is far from complete static stability due to its openness and nonequilibrium state. In our opinion, the sustainable development of the system means the development that provides the long term stable growth of quantitative and qualitative characteristics of the system structural components functioning, which does not result in degradation changes of the environment. In this case economic stability represents the ability to adapt unscathed to parameter changes in the external economic environment, adequately responding to its effects, as well as internal disturbances (fluctuations) [7,14]. The formation and maintenance of sustainable economic development management hierarchy should be seen in the following sequence (Fig. 1).
Fig. 1. The diagram of the gradual formation and stability control.
Every next level is influenced by the previous states of the effective sustainable economic development.
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Vadim Kankhva et al. / Procedia Engineering 165 (2016) 1046 – 1051
Relating to inter-branch complex and its organizational and economic changes, basing on the periodization of scientific approaches to the justification of the life cycle changes and taking into account the essential sustainability concept features, sustainable development is characterized by a complex system of indicators that reflect the condition and trends of the production and technical base, organizational and economic dynamics, including maintaining a sufficient level of the «inventories» of the listed above resources [11,13]. In general, the elements of the investment and construction complex stability model can be suggested as follows: ܷ ൌ ݂ሺ௧ሻ ሺܷ௧ ǡ ܷ ǡ ܷ ሻ
ܷ ൌ ݂ሺ
ୀଵ
ܸൌ
ఙሺሻ ெሺሻ
ܨ௩ ୀଵ ܨ௩ ሻ
՜ ݐ
(1)
where fk(t) - the objective function for the sustainability criterion k at time t; Uteh - technological sustainability; Uek - economic sustainability; Uorg - organizational sustainability; Fv - environmental factors, Fvn - factors of the internal environment, U-stability, M – mathematical expectation, σ - standard deviation. 3. Results Relying on the proposed model the authors developed a methodological tools for the sustainability assessment and management at each hierarchy level of the ICS control system (Fig. 2).
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Vadim Kankhva et al. / Procedia Engineering 165 (2016) 1046 – 1051 Fig. 2. - Block diagram of the sustainability assessment methodology implementation at every level of the ICC management hierarchy, where NPV - net present value of the project implementation, CF - businesses cash flow, Uo - additive stability function of the construction industry, A (r) - structural topological stability, characterized by H-rank distribution.
If the accepted criterion for the project sustainability assessment is the stability of net present value (NPV) [2,9], then the definition of enterprise sustainable development criterion is far more complicated because of the lack of a common methodology. Basing on the assumed for the given research definition of the economy sustainability, the criterion should be seen as the management outcome of the external and internal factor combination, as well as the company activity outcome in a volatile economy. In terms of the integral approach the activity outcome is assumed to be the change of the goodwill, which reflects the Current Value or Present Value. In dynamic state the goodwill change for a certain period (a year) is proposed as a sustainability criterion [10,12]. Taking into account the results of the expert assessment as well as the determination of the proportion of the criteria influence on the integral indicator of the sustainability level the branch sustainability function can be represented in an additive form, [5]: U = 0.1Bok + 0.09Bif + 0.09Bcr + 0.09Btr + 0.09Bvvp + 0.09Bvr + 0.09Bd + 0.09Bgp + 0.1Bgk
(2)
where U - the level of the industry branch sustainability; Bok – score points on the criterion of the investment volume in industry capital assets; Bif – score points on the criterion of the degree of the industry key assets wear; Bcr - score points on the criterion of the number of workers in the sector; Btr – score points on the criterion of sectorial growth rates; Bvvp – score points on the criterion of GDP in the sector; Bvr – score points on the criterion of demand for the industry in a recession; Bd – score points on the criterion of the share of profitable companies in the industry; Bgp – score points on the criterion of government intervention in the sector; Bgk – score points on the criterion of the state credits of the sector. In order to enhance the objectivity of the calculations the score criterion system is determined basing on the ratio of the calculated and optimal values of statistical performance assessment in all the analyzed sectors of the economy taken together for a certain period. Further assessment procedure is the same for all structural elements of the investment and construction complex and represents the analysis of the response performance of the system identified as a result of correlation analysis and expert evaluation of the performance influence degree on the economic sustainability. Key factors are those which lead to the largest deviation values of the stability criterion. The analysis of the complex response can also be carried out by the simulation of performance values. Basing on the thesis of openness and non-equilibrium state of the dynamic system of the ICC and its structural elements, we consider it feasible to assume one of the values according to the variation coefficient gradation of the risk assessment as an optimal value of stability not the minimum one (which leads to the failure of the system). Table 1. The grading of the of economic sustainability level in construction companies, projects and industry The coefficient of variation CV
The degree of economic sustainability
СV
