Developments in Renewable Energy. - Current Trends & Future Prospects. Power Market in India â Way Forward. IIT Ka
Developments in Renewable Energy - Current Trends & Future Prospects Power Market in India – Way Forward IIT Kanpur 2nd March, 2016
Overall Generation Mix : 284 GW as on 31.12.2015
Coal
Gas
Diesel
Nuclear
Hydro
Renewable
173
24.5
1
5.78
42.6
37.4
Source: Central Electricity Authority (CEA), 2015 2
Electricity Demand Projections Year
Total Electricity Required ( Billion kWhr)
Installed Capacity (MW)
GDP Growth Rate 7%
8%
7%
8%
2011-12
1031
1097
206757
219992
2016-17
1377
1524
276143
305623
2021-22
1838
2118
368592
424744
2026-27
2397
2866
480694
574748
2031-32
3127
3880
627088
778095
Additional Generation Capacity of almost 3 to 4 times of current capacity will be required Source: Energy Policy Report, Planning Commission, India
India’s Energy Requirement : Production & Imports Range of Requirement in Scenarios
Fuel
Assumed Domestic Range of Imports* Production
Import (%)
(R)
(P)
(I)
(I/R)
Oil (Mt)
350-486
35
315-451
90-93
Natural Gas (Mtoe) including CBM
100-197
100
0-97
0-49
Coal (Mtoe)
632-1022
560
72-462
11-45
TCPES
1351-1702
-
387-1010
29-59
* Range of imports is calculated as follows: Lower bound = Minimum requirement - Maximum domestic production Upper bound = Maximum requiremnt - Minimum domestic production Source: Integrated Energy Policy Report
Notes:
1. Growth Rate 8% 2. Year 2031-32
India will continue to import significant amount of its energy requirement
Energy security is an area of prime concern for India. Hence the need for promotion of Renewable Energy 3/2/2016
4
Energy & Peak Demand and Deficit Year 18.00% 16.60%
Peak Demand (GW) Energy Demand (BUs)
2007-08
109
739
2008-09
110
777
2009-10
119
831
2010-11
122
862
2011-12
130
937
2012-13
135
996
2013-14
136
1002
2014-15
141
1031
2015-16 (E)
153
1138
16.00% 14.00% 11.90%
12.00%
12.70%
9.80% 11.10%
10.00% 8.00%
10.60% 9%
10.10%
9.90%
8.50%
8.50%
8.70%
6.00%
4.50%
4.00%
4.20%
2.00% 0.00% 2007-08
2008-09
2009-10 Peak Deficit
2010-11
2011-12
Energy Deficit
2012-13
2013-14
Source: Integrated Energy Policy Report
Peak deficit is higher than energy deficit 2014-15 : Energy Deficit 3.6% & Peak deficit 4.7% 2015-16 (E): Energy Deficit 2.1% & Peak deficit 2.6%
6
Potential & Achievement of RE in India (as on 31.12.2015) 800000
Potential MW
Sector
Cumulative Achievements MW
Wind Power
1,02,772
25,088
Solar Power
7,48,990
4,879
700000 600000 500000 400000
300000
Small Power
Hydro
19,749
4,177
200000 100000
Bio-Power
22,536
4,551 0
Waste to Power Total
2,554
127
8,96,602
38,822
Wind Power Potential MW
Solar
Small Hydro Biomass
Waste to Power
Cumulative Achievement MW
Huge untapped RE potential is available in India Source : Ministry of New and Renewable Energy 6
Renewable Energy Development RPO & RE Tariffs : Played important role in RE Capacity addition 40000
REC Regulations CERC RE Tariff Regulations
35000 NAPCC, JNNSM, GBI
30000
Enactment of National Tariff Policy
MW
25000
20000 Enactment of Electricity Act, 2003
15000 Policy Announcement by Central Government
10000
Emergence of Electricity Regulatory Commissions
5000
0
Wind
Biomass
Small Hydro
Solar
Waste to Energy
7
Energy resources of the world RENEWABLE ENEERGY SOURCES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PROVIDE 3078 TIMES THE CURRENT GLOBAL ENERGY NEEDS
ENERGY RESOURCES OF THE WORLD WIND: 200 x BIOMASS: 20x GEOTHERMAL 5X MARINE: 2X HYDRO: 1x
SOLAR:2850 x
Source: RE-thinking 2050, 〈www.erec.org)
Overview of renewable energy sources Renewable Energy Sources
Solar Energy
Wind Energy
Hydro Energy
Bio Energy
Marine Energy
Geothermal Energy
Solar PV
Onshore
Run of the river
Bio Energy for electricity and heat
Waves
Convective System
Concentrating Solar Power
Offshore
Reservoir
Bio Fuel
Tidal Range
Conductive system
Tidal Current
Deep Aquifer System
Solar Heating
Pump Storage
Ocean Current
Ocean Thermal
Salinity gradient
Maturity of selected RE technologies Technology
Sector
Demonstration
Commercialization
Inception
Biomass
Electricity & Heat
Thermal Gasification
Enhanced Geothermal
Geothermal
Consolidation
Anaerobic digestion
Advance Biofuel
Transport
Take off
Co-firing Modern Boiler & stoves Conventional Biofuel
Conventional Geothermal
Hydro
Hydro
Marine
Wave
Electricity Solar Wind
Heat
Tidal & Stream
PV 3rd Generation CSP Tower Solar Cooling
CSP Trough
Offshore
PV & Thin Film Water Heater Onshore
Wind Energy Potential –Major States
Rajasthan
Gujarat
Madhya Pradesh
*Tapping of offshore and on-shore low wind, could Andhra Pradesh increase potential substantially
Maharashtra
State
MW
Gujarat Andhra Telangana Rajasthan Tamil Nadu Maharashtra Madhya P Karnataka
84,431 44,229 4,244 18,770 33,800 45,394 10,484 55,857
Karnataka Kerala
Tamil Nadu
On-Shore
Potential: 302 GW @ 100 Meter hub height, Source : MNRE 14/12/2015 Off-Shore : resource estimation commenced National Offshore Wind Energy Policy, 2015
Small Hydro Potential –Major States Jammu & Kashmir
Estimated Potential: High Potential States
19.7GW Arunachal Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, J&K, Uttarakhand
Himachal Pradesh
Uttaranchal
Arunachal Pradesh
Maharashtra
Andhra Pradesh Karnataka
>1700 MW Between 1000 & 1500 MW
Kerala
Between 500 & 1000 MW 3/2/2016
Tamil Nadu
Andhra Arunachal P Assam Bihar Chhattisgarh Gujarat Haryana Himachal P Jammu & K Jharkhand Karnataka Kerala Madhya Maharashtra Manipur Meghalaya Mizoram Nagaland Orissa Punjab Rajasthan Sikkim Tamil Nadu Tripura Uttar Pradesh Uttarakhand West Bengal Pondicherry Total
978 1341 239 223 1107 202 110 2398 1431 209 4141 704 820 794 109 230 169 197 295 441 57 267 660 47 461 1708 396 120 19749
Biomass Potential –Major States States/Uts
Biomass
Andhra Arunachal P Assam Bihar Chhatisgarh Goa Gujarat Haryana Himachal P Jammu & K Jharkhand Karnataka Kerala Madhya Maharashtra Manipur Meghalaya Mizoram Nagaland Orissa Punjab Rajasthan Sikkim Tamil Nadu Tripura Uttar Pradesh Uttarakhand West Bengal
578 8 212 619 236 26 1221 1333 142 43 90 1131 1044 1364 1887 13 11 1 10 246 3172 1039 2 1070 3 1617 24 396
Total
17536 MW
> 2000 Mw Between 1000 & 2000 Mw Between 500 & 1000 Mw
Bio power conversion process for different end products
Solar potential in the country
• Solar Power Potential: 750 GW
(use of 3% wasteland area assumed) - National Institute of Solar Energy in India
• Estimated Potential in GW: (i) (ii) (iii) (iv) (v) (vi)
Rajasthan Jammu & Kashmir Madhya Pradesh Maharashtra Gujarat Others
– – – – – –
GW 142 110 60 60 36 340
• India’s current solar power installed capacity: 4879 MW (0.6% of the estimated potential) • Solar radiation is high 4.5-5.5 kWh/m2 in most of the regions (>300 days of Sunshine) • High radiation areas, Large tract of wasteland • Not constrained by location • Environmentally friendly, Grater Energy Security • Quick deployment, Distributed potential
PV Module Production by Region 1997-2014 Percentage of Total MWp Produced
Data: Up to 2009: Navigant Consulting; since 2010: IHS. Graph: PSE AG 2015
Concerning PV module production in 2014, China/Taiwan hold the lead with a share of 69 %. Europe : 6 %; Japan and USA/CAN : 4 %
PV Industry Production by Region (2005-2014) Global Annual Production
Data: Navigant Consulting and Paula Mints. Graph. PSE AG 2015
12 © Fraunhofer ISE
Global Cumulative PV Installation until 2014
Data: IHS. Graph: PSE AG 2015
In 2014, Europe’s contribution amounted to 48 % (compared to 58 % in 2013). China/Taiwan accounted for 17 % (compared to 13 % in 2013).
13
© Fraunhofer ISE
Global Cumulative PV Installation by Region Status 2014
The total cumulative installations amounted to 183 GWp at the end 2014. All percentages are related to total global installations, including off-grid systems.
Data: IHS. Graph: PSE AG 2015
14
In 2014, Germany accounted for 21 % (38 GWp) of the cumulative PV capacity installed worldwide (183 GWp) with about 1.5 million PV systems .
© Fraunhofer ISE
Electrical Capacity of Renewable Energy Sources Germany
In 2014 about 28% of the electricity in Germany was generated by renewable energy (RE) sources according to BMWi. Preliminary data 2014: BMWi; 2013: BMWi / AGEE-Stat. Up to 2012 Data: BMU, BDEW. Graph: PSE AG 2015
PV covered almost 7 % of Germany’s electricity demand in 2014. Renewable sources delivered about 31% of the total net power consumption in 2014.
16
© Fraunhofer ISE
Number of PV Systems Annually Installed in Germany Percentage of Annual Capacity
Data: up to 2008: extrapolation from utilities data; since 2009: Bundesnetzagentur. Graph: PSE AG 2015
15
In 2014 the newly installed capacity in Germany was 1.9 GWp, (significant reduction compared to 2013 : 3.3 GWp). © Fraunhofer ISE
Annual PV Production by Technology Worldwide (in GWp) About 47.5* GWp PV module production in 2014
2010
Thin film Mono-Si Multi-Si
2005
*2014 production numbers reported by different analysts vary between 39 and 49 GWp. We estimate that total PV module production is realistically around 45 GWp for 2014. 2000
2005
2000
Data: from 2000 to 2010: Navigant; from 2011: IHS (Mono-/Multi- proportion: Paula Mints). Graph: PSE AG 2015
18
Si-wafer based PV accounted for about 92 % of the total production in 2014. The share of multi-crystalline technology : about 56 % and thin film : 9% of total production. © Fraunhofer ISE
PV Production by Technology Percentage of Global Annual Production
roduction 2014 (GWp) Thin film
4.4
Mono-Si
16.9
Multi-Si
26.2
Ribbon-Si
Data: from 2000 to 2010: Navigant; from 2011: IHS (Mono-/Multi- proportion by Paula Mints). Graph: PSE AG 2015
19 © Fraunhofer ISE
0
Market Share of Thin-Film Technologies Percentage of Total Global PV Production
Production 2014 (GWp) Cd-Te
1.9
a-Si
0.8
CI(G)S
1.7
Data: from 2000 to 2010: Navigant; from 2011: IHS. Graph: PSE AG 2015
20 © Fraunhofer ISE
Thin-Film Technologies: Annual Global PV Module Production
Data: from 2000 to 2010: Navigant; from 2011: IHS. Graph: PSE AG 2015
21 © Fraunhofer ISE
120
HCPV LCPV
100 80
60 40 20
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
0 2002
Yearly Installed CPV Capacity [MW]
Low and High Concentrator PV Systems (LCPV/HCPV) Yearly Installed Capacity
20
LCPV and HCPV concentration factors :
