Do they get what they expect?: The connection

Children and Youth Services Review 55 (2015) 193–200

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Children and Youth Services Review journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/childyouth

Do they get what they expect?: The connection between young adults' future expectations before leaving care and outcomes after leaving care Yafit Sulimani-Aidan ⁎ Chapin Hall at the University of Chicago, USA School of Social Service Administration, University of Chicago, USA

a r t i c l e

i n f o

Article history: Received 24 December 2014 Received in revised form 9 June 2015 Accepted 10 June 2015 Available online 14 June 2015 Keywords: Future expectations Leaving care Transition to adulthood Aging out of care Young adults

a b s t r a c t This study examines the future expectations of young people in out-of-home placements in the last year before leaving care and the association between those expectations and their outcomes after leaving care. The study examines the hypothesis that care leavers with higher future expectations will have better outcomes in the areas of housing, educational achievements, economic status, adjustment to military service, and life satisfaction. The study was conducted through 277 interviews with the young adults at their last year in care and 236 interviews a year after they left care. Higher future expectations while in care were positively correlated with satisfaction in accommodation, economic status and educational achievements and adjustment to required military service after leaving care. These findings emphasize the role of future expectations as a source of resilience and motivation. They also illustrate the importance of designing programs that address care leavers' self-perception and future outlook and offer preparation in concrete areas as the youth transition to adult life. © 2015 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

1. Introduction Young adults are often preoccupied with the way their life may be when they become adults (Nurmi, 2005). Emerging adulthood is a complex period characterized by many changes in residence, employment, education, and romantic relationships. It is a time of identity exploration, focusing on the self, increased independence, and freedom from time constraints and social control. However, it is also a time of decreased parental support, guidance, and monitoring (Arnett, 2007). Thinking about and planning for the future are exciting and challenging for many young people. However, those who are about to age out of care could find this to be particularly stressful. Factors contributing to this stress include lack of family backing, their socioeconomic background, and current life circumstances (Benbenishty & Schiff, 2009). During this period, the extent to which care leavers expect certain events to occur might influence their goal setting, planning, behavior, and developmental paths. Yet, despite the effect their future expectations might have on their adult lives, there is surprisingly limited literature about expectations among this population. Every year in Israel, several hundred Israeli youth reach the age of 18 and leave the residential care system. As in other countries, care leavers in Israel face many challenges during their transition to adulthood, especially in the areas of education, employment, and risky behaviors (Courtney & Dworsky, 2006; Courtney, Piliavin, Grogan-Kaylor, &

Nesmith, 2001; Mason et al., 2003; Shimoni & Benbenishty, 2011; Stein, 2006; Weiner & Kupermintz, 2001). Their limited personal and social assets limit what they can achieve as adults and likely have a profound impact on the way they perceive their future in many areas. Although many studies have investigated care leavers' situation as young adults, no studies have focused on their future expectations while they are in care and the association between those expectations and their outcomes after leaving care. There is empirical support for the role of future-oriented cognitions in young peoples' attainments later in life. For example, adolescents' educational expectations were found to predict their educational outcomes (Messersmith & Schulenberg, 2008; Ou & Reynolds, 2008), and occupational expectations were found to predict occupational attainment (Armstrong & Crombie, 2000). The study described here examined the future expectations of young adults who are on the verge of leaving care and the correlation between those expectations and the care leaver's outcomes a year after leaving care in the areas of housing, educational achievement, financial status, military service, and overall life satisfaction. The study also examined whether care leavers' expectations for the future predicted their outcomes after controlling for their demographic variables (e.g., gender, ethnicity, family status) and placement history (e.g., total number of placements and total length of stay in the current placement). 1.1. Future expectations among adolescents and young people at risk

⁎ School of Social Service Administration, 969 East 60th Street, Chicago, IL 60637, USA. Tel.: +1 3129188072. E-mail address: yafi[email protected].

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.childyouth.2015.06.006 0190-7409/© 2015 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Young adults who leave care are at a crucial point in their life. As they leave care, planning for their life is especially important. Although

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Y. Sulimani-Aidan / Children and Youth Services Review 55 (2015) 193–200

future expectations are important during all parts of the life cycle, they are especially critical in times of crisis and transition (Nurmi, 2005; Seginer, 2008). Care leavers' future expectations may influence their motivation and ability to accomplish their goals. In turn, this could impact their success immediately after leaving care and later as adults. Young adults' expectations are especially relevant when they leave care because that is a time of developmental transitions. During that time, young adults take on more adult roles and responsibilities, usually through a variety of means, including exploring participating social networks, pursuing employment opportunities, and pursuing additional education (McCabe & Barnett, 2000; Seginer, 2008). Although little attention has been paid to the importance of future expectations for care leavers as adults (Sulimani-Aidan & Benbenishty, 2011), research does suggest that those expectations are important. Studies of at-risk children and adolescents identify having positive future expectations as an important protective factor linked to positive psychosocial outcomes, resiliency, and lower rates of risky behaviors. For example, several studies have found that positive future expectations were linked to improved social and emotional development, particularly among minority and low-income youth (Werner & Smith, 1992; Wyman, Cowen, Work, & Kerley, 1993). Other studies found correlations between having fewer negative expectations about the future and frequent involvement with the law (Nurmi, 1991; Raffaelli & Koller, 2005). Having positive expectations for the future was also found to be a protective factor for children under stress and to be related to social adjustment and well-being in general (Wyman et al., 1993). Dubow, Arnett, Smith, and Ippolito (2001) found that having a higher level of positive expectations for the future was related to exhibiting fewer problem behaviors, being resistant to negative peer influence, being more involved in school, and having better social support. Other studies found that positive future expectations were associated with greater academic achievements (Arbona, 2000; Zimbardo & Boyd, 1999) and a decreased likelihood of substance abuse and engaging in risky sexual behaviors (Bryan, Aiken, & West, 2004; Nurmi, 1991; Tevendale, Lightfoot, & Slocum, 2009; Sipsma, Ickovics, Lin, & Kershaw, 2012; Zimbardo & Boyd, 1999). Positive beliefs about the future were also found to be linked to long-range goal setting, better social and emotional adjustment in school, and increased self-esteem (Catalano, Berglund, Ryan, Lonczak, & Hawkins, 2004). Young adults leaving care must deal with many different challenges, such as finding a job, finding an apartment and achieving financial independence. However, unlike young adults who are no care leavers, they are usually forced to confront these challenges with little or no support from their families (Benbenishty & Magnus, 2008). Consequently, their future expectations might play an even more important role in meeting these challenges. The aim of this paper is to contribute to our understanding of the role of these future expectations in care leavers' future outcomes.

rest rent apartments on their own or with roommates. Studies indicate that many young adults who leave care experience instability in their accommodations or homelessness (Dworsky, Napolitano, & Courtney, 2013; Pecora et al., 2003; Stein, Pinkerton, & Kelleher, 2000; Sulimani-Aidan, Benbenishty, Dinisman, & Zeira, 2013). Although a very small number of care leavers in Israel experience homelessness, they do experience instability in their accommodations and are not always satisfied with their new housing (Sulimani-Aidan et al., 2013).

1.2.2. Educational achievements Academic achievement is a key developmental asset that lowers the risk that adolescents will engage in risky behaviors (Kirk, Lewis, Lee, & Stowell, 2011). Care leavers have poorer educational outcomes than young people in the general population (Shimoni & Benbenishty, 2011). Obstacles to care leavers' success in achieving better educational outcomes include multiple placements, disrupted schooling, and no emphasis on education by their caregivers. Other obstacles include care leavers' self-perception and future outlook, lower self-esteem and lack of aspiration or motivation towards pursuing high education (Stein, 2012).

1.2.3. Financial status Financial independence is associated with positive outcomes in adult life (Sinclair, Baker, Wilson, & Gibbs, 2005) because it enables young people to cope with daily challenge and pursue their future goals (Benbenishty & Magnus, 2008). Many care leavers have difficulty achieving financial independence. They are less likely to have a job and often earn low wages when they are employed (Courtney et al., 2011). In many cases they assist their biological family financially and owe debts by the time they leave care (Sulimani-Aidan et al., 2013).

1.2.4. Adjustment to military service Military service in Israel brings with it many demands and stressors. However, completing military service is considered an important aspect of normative functioning (Golan, Sharhabi, & Wander-Schwartz, 2002; Weiner & Kupermintz, 2001) and related to better integration into civic society. Like other young adults, care leavers in Israel are expected to join the army at the age of 18, after completing their high school studies (although those with mental or physical disabilities can be discharged by the army). Prior studies show that care leavers are less likely to join the military than their peers, and that many of those who do join the military face multiple difficulties adjusting during their service. For example, they are more likely than their peers to be absent without leave. As a result, care leavers are sometimes brought to trial in a military court or spend time in a military jail (Schiff & Benbenishty, 2006; Sulimani-Aidan et al., 2013; Weiner & Kupermintz, 2001).

1.2. Young adults' outcomes and achievements after leaving care In this study, we focused on the correlation between care leaver's future expectations and their outcomes in the areas of housing, educational achievements, financial status, adjustment to military service, and overall life satisfaction. These areas were chosen because many studies have shown that outcomes in these areas play an important role during the transition from care to independent living. 1.2.1. Housing Stability in housing has been shown to increase well-being in those who leave care (Courtney et al., 2001). Young adults in Israel often experience more stability while in care than young people in care in other countries (Stein & Munro, 2008). Therefore, they face a big change when they leave care and transition to independent living. In Israel, most care leavers return to live with their biological families. Others live on military bases or in an apartment provided by the military; the

1.2.5. Life satisfaction Life satisfaction is an important component of well-being and reflects the care leavers' subjective perceptions of their lives (Diener, 1984). High life satisfaction might lead to better adaptation to life after care by buffering against the effects of stressful life events (Huebner, 2004; Park, 2004). Studies that have examined life satisfaction among young people who age out of care found mixed results. Some studies reported decreased life satisfaction over time, but others found care leavers' life satisfaction increased. For example, Courtney et al. (2007, 2011) found that 75% of the young people aging out of care at the age of 21 reported feeling satisfied or very satisfied with their lives as a whole. However, this fell to 63% at the age of 26. By contrast, a study of 47 young people who aged out of care in Australia found that overall life satisfaction declined a year after leaving care but increased slightly four to five years later (Cashmore & Paxman, 1996, 2007).


1.3. Research goals The purpose of the present study is to examine the future expectations of care leavers before leaving care and the relationship between those expectations and outcomes a year after leaving care in the areas of: housing, educational achievements, financial status, military service, and life satisfaction. We hypothesized that young adults with higher positive expectations will: (1) have more stability in housing and be satisfied with their housing; (2) have higher educational achievements; (3) report having a better financial status; (4) adjust better to military service; and (5) report higher life satisfaction after leaving care. 2. Method 2.1. Participants The sample during Stage I included 277 young people from 26 care facilities who completed a questionnaire during their last year in care. These young people represented 70% out of all youth aging out of care in the welfare system annually. These facilities were identified as taking care of the most vulnerable youths in residential care in Israel. Eighty five percent of these participants (N = 236) were interviewed about one year after leaving care (Stage II). 2.2. Procedure The study was reviewed and approved by the ethics committee of Bar Ilan University, and by the ethics committees of the Ministry of Education and the Ministry of Welfare and the Social Services in Israel. Data collection began after obtaining approval from the inspectors of the different care facilities. In Stage I, the participants completed a self-report questionnaire in a group setting while in care. Data collection in the second stage (a year after) was conducted through structured phone interviews. 2.3. Measures During Stage I, while participants were in care, we collected data about their demographic characteristics, their placement history and their future expectations using a self-report questionnaire. 2.3.1. Future expectations questionnaire This 26-item measure is designed to assess the degree to which adolescents believe a series of statements about their own future. It includes the Future Expectations Scale for Adolescents (McWhirter & McWhirter, 2008) and My Future Questionnaire (Zeira & Dekel, 2005). The questionnaire measures future expectations in three different areas: (1) future achievements in the areas of education, employment, mobility, housing and community involvement (e.g., “I will have stable work” and “I will owe an apartment”); (2) family and friends (e.g., “I will have a good marriage life” and “I will have good friends”); and (3) negative future expectations and difficulties (e.g., “I will get a divorce,” or “I will be unemployed”). All items begin with: “When I am an adult…”. An overall future expectations score was created by summing responses to the items in these three areas. Responses are on a 4-point scale 1 = “I am sure it will happen”; 2 = “I think it will happen”; 3 = “I think it will not happen”; and 4 = “I am sure it will not happen.” A higher score indicates lower expectations. However, the items were reverse coded so that higher scores indicated higher expectations. Full-scale internal consistency was 0.70. 2.3.2. Control variables Because a relationship between any of the outcome measures and future expectations might be explained by factors that are correlated with both future expectations and the outcome measure, the hierarchical multiple regressions controlled for demographic variables and placement history. The control variables we included were: gender;

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ethnicity (Israeli, Ethiopian, Russian, or other); family status (married parents, divorced parents, or parent deceased) and placement history (total number of placements and total length of stay in current placement in years). During Stage II, a year after leaving care, we measured their outcomes in five life areas. 2.3.3. Housing Care leavers were asked questions about the stability of their housing and their satisfaction with their housing. The stability questions included: “How many places did you live at since you left care?” and “Was there a time that you did not have a place to stay after leaving care?”. The satisfaction question was: “How satisfied are you with your housing (dwelling place)?”. Responses were on a five-point scale, with 1 = “very satisfied” and 5 = “not satisfied at all.” 2.3.4. Educational achievements The questions for educational achievements were taken from Benbenishty and Zeira's (2008). Care leavers were asked a series of questions about their educational status, such as “What type of matriculation (high school diploma) did you achieve?”. Possible answers included: 1 = “haven't completed 12 years of study”; 2 = “completed only 12 years of study”; 3 = “completed half matriculation”; and 4 = “completed full matriculation.” Completing full matriculation means that they can pursue higher education, while half matriculation means that they are not eligible for a high school diploma nor can pursue higher education. Whereas completing 12 years of study means that they are eligible to a diploma that will enable them to pursue only professional/technical courses. 2.3.5. Financial status The questions for financial status were also taken from Benbenishty and Zeira's (2008) study. Care leavers were asked a series of questions about their financial status. Questions included: “How would you define your financial status?” (1 = “very difficult” to 5 = “very good”) and “Do you have debts?” (yes/no). 2.3.6. Military service Care leaver's adjustment to the military service was assessed using the Soldier Adaptation to the Army Questionnaire (Ben Knaz, Wintre, & Sugar, 1997). This 49-item measure includes questions about adjustment to the military base and their military role position (e.g., “lately I didn't have motivation to do my chores on the base”), social adjustment (e.g., “I am satisfied with my social life at my service”), and adjustment to living outside home (e.g., “I like living outside home”). The response options for each item ranged from 1 = “defines me best” to 9 = “does not define me at all”. In the current study, we used a composite scale composed of all items with an internal reliability of 0.70. 2.3.7. Life satisfaction Life satisfaction was measured using the Israeli version (Ullman & Tatar, 2001) of the Student's Life Satisfaction Scale—SLSS (Huebner, 1991). This widely used instrument contains seven items (e.g., “My life is going well” and “I have what I want in life”), each measured on a scale of 1 = “never” to 4 = “almost always”. A summative score was calculated by taking the mean of these items, with a higher score indicating greater life satisfaction. Internal reliability was 0.70. 2.4. Data analyses Data analysis proceeded through a series of three steps. First, future expectations before leaving care were summarized using descriptive statistics. Next, bivariate correlations were calculated to examine relationships between future expectations and care leavers' outcomes after leaving care. Finally, hierarchical multiple regression models were estimated for each of the outcomes. We first entered the

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demographics (gender, ethnicity, and family status) and placement history (total placements and length in current placement) control variables, then we entered the overall future expectations measure. 3. Results Table 1 presents the demographic and placement history characteristics of the 277 young people who participated in Stage I (median age = 18.06, SD = 1.01). Sixty one percent (n = 168) of these participants were boys and their median age was 18 years old. Almost forty percent of them were born in Israel (37.9%) or in Ethiopia (37.9%) and nearly 20% (17.6%) in the Former Soviet Union. Eighty five percent (n = 236) of the participants in Stage I were interviewed at Stage II. The median age at Stage II was 19.5 years old, forty percent of them were born in Israel, 37% in Ethiopia and 17% in the Former Soviet Union. 3.1. Care leaver's future expectations before leaving care Young people's responses to the questions about their future expectations are presented in Table 2. In general, most had positive expectations about their future across a range of life domains. 3.1.1. Future achievements: education, employment, mobility, accommodation, and community involvement Overall, the young people were quite confident about their future achievements. Between 80 and 90% thought or were sure that they will have a good job, a car, and an apartment. In addition, about 70% of the young people thought or were sure that they will have an important place in the community. Nevertheless, one-quarter thought or were sure that they will not attain a higher education. 3.1.2. Family and friends The young people had the most positive expectations in the family and friends domain. Over 90% of the young people expected that they would have a good marriage and good friends. However, when asked about their future children, between 21 and 26% did not believe that they would provide a good life to their children or that their children would have a good life. 3.1.3. Negative future expectations and difficulties A small percentage of the young people had negative future expectations. For example, 10% thought or were sure that they would get involved with law enforcement; 20% thought or were sure that they would be unemployed, and 15% thought or were sure they would have mental difficulties in the future.

Table 1 Demographic and placement history variables (N = 277). Variables Gender Male Female Ethnicity Israel Ethiopia Russia Others Parents status Two parents married or live together Divorced parents Parent diseased Others Placement history Total number of placements Total number of years in the current placement

#

%

168 109

60.6% 39.4%

103 103 48 18

37.9% 37.9% 17.6% 6.6%

131 100 37 2

48.9% 36.8% 13.6% 0.7%

M = 1.41 M = 4.86

SD = 0.72 SD = 2.54

Table 2 Means and SDs of future expectations in several domains (N = 277). Domains

M

SD

Expectations of future achievement Expectations of family and friends Negative future expectations Overall future expectation

1.57 1.28 1.57 1.49

0.37 0.36 0.46 0.31

Note. Scale ranges from 1 = “I am sure it will happen” to 4 = “I am sure it will not happen”.

3.2. Care leaver outcomes after leaving care Care leaver's outcomes a year after leaving care are presented in Table 3. Seventy percent had joined the military (which is compulsory at age 18), but half reported difficulties in adjusting to military service and had experienced negative events such as being tried in a military court, going absent without leave (AWOL), or being sent to a military jail. Seventy percent of care leavers were staying in military housing or with their birth families. Nevertheless, almost a quarter (24%) reported instability in their housing and 8% reported not having anywhere to stay. Moreover, only half of the care leavers said that they were satisfied with the place in which they lived. With regard to their financial status, most care leavers reported having a stable income from their military service or work (84%), yet 25% reported having a very difficult financial situation. Educational achievement after leaving care was also low. Only 40% of the young people had graduated with a high school diploma that would enable them to continue to higher education. Finally, life satisfaction reported by care leavers was fairly high. About 60% felt that their life is good usually or most of the time and 40% reported that they had all of their needs fulfilled usually or most of the time. 3.3. Correlations between future expectations and outcomes after leaving care Table 4 presents the correlation between young adults' future expectations, overall and in three domains (future achievements, family and friends, and negative future expectations) and their outcomes one year after leaving care in the five areas (housing, education, financial status, military service, and life satisfaction). 3.3.1. Bivariate correlations with future expectations and housing We examined the hypothesis that future expectations would be associated with higher stability and satisfaction in housing. Overall, positive future expectations were positively correlated with care leavers' satisfaction with their housing (r = 0.14, p b .05). Future expectations of family and friends before leaving care were positively associated with stability in accommodations after leaving care (r = 13, p b .05). Also, care leavers who reported higher negative future expectations were less satisfied with their housing (r = −0.13, p b .05). 3.3.2. Bivariate correlations with future expectations and financial status We hypothesized that future expectations would be positively associated with financial status. Overall, future expectations were positively associated with financial status (r = 0.20, p b .01). Care leavers who had higher expectations of their future achievements Table 3 Means and SDs of future outcomes (N = 216–236). Future outcomes

N

M

SD

Range

Satisfaction with housing Educational achievements Financial status Adjustment to the military service Life satisfaction

236 236 236 145 236

2.42 3.42 2.33 6.48 2.79

1.36 0.70 0.93 1.52 0.66

1–5 1–4 1–5 1–9 1–4


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Table 4 Pearson correlations between care leavers' future expectations and outcomes.

Expectations of future achievements Expectations of family and friends Negative future expectations Overall future expectations

Satisfaction with housing

Educational achievement

Financial status

Adjustment to military service

Life satisfaction

0.13 0.11 −0.13⁎ 0.14⁎

0.16⁎ 0.14⁎ 0.14 0.13⁎

0.13⁎ 0.20⁎⁎ −0.18⁎⁎ 0.20⁎⁎

0.11 0.20⁎ 0.01 0.14⁎

0.16 0.14⁎ 0.08 0.06

⁎ p b .05. ⁎⁎ p b .01.

(r = 0.13, p b .05) and of their family and friends (r = 0.14, p b .01) reported of better financial status. Conversely, higher negative future expectations were associated with worse financial status (r = − 0.18, p b .01).

(F(6,220) = 4.94, p b .001) when future expectations significantly ncreased the amount of variance accounted for. The analysis with regard to the care leavers' financial status indicated that future expectations added 3% to explained variance, yet the model was not significant (F(6, 217) = 1.78, n.s.). Also, future expectations did not predict adjustment to military service (β = 0.05, n.s.) nor life satisfaction (β = 0.06, n.s.).

3.3.3. Bivariate correlations with future expectation and educational achievements Overall, future expectations were positively correlated with educational achievements (r = 0.13, p b .05). Care leavers with higher expectation of future achievements (r = 0.16, p b .05) and of family and friends (r = 0.14, p b .05) reported higher educational achievements.

4. Discussion Thinking about future events and outcomes is a defining feature of human beings. For young adults who leave care, their expectations and planning for their lives have an important meaning (Benbenishty & Schiff, 2009). The goal of this paper was to examine care leavers' expectations of their future and the way these expectations are correlated with their outcomes after leaving care. Most care leavers in the study had relatively high future expectations across a range of life domains. Their most positive expectations were related to their social ties with family and friends; more than 90% thought or were sure that they would have a good marriage and good friends. Further, a large majority were very positive in their outlook regarding instrumental aspects of their lives. More than 80% thought or were sure that they would get a good job, a car, and an apartment. Most young people in the current study had lower future expectations in the areas of employment, mental health and education compared with their expectations in other domains. Fifteen percent of young people on the verge of leaving care expected that they would have mental health difficulties in the future. These expected difficulties echo some of the findings from other follow-up studies of care leavers, which indicated high prevalence of mental health problems such as depression and anxiety (Courtney & Dworsky, 2006; Pecora, White, Jackson, & Wiggins, 2009), although these studies refer to meeting criteria for a diagnosis rather than perceived mental health difficulties. Lower future expectations in the area of mental health might indicate however, that there is a group of young adults who were struggling with mental difficulties at the time the survey took place. This group likely expected that these difficulties would play a role later in life.

3.3.4. Bivariate correlations with future expectations and adjustment to military service As we hypothesized, better adjustment to military service was positively correlated with overall future expectations (r = 0.14, p b .05) and future expectations of family and friends (r = 0.20, p b .05). 3.3.5. Bivariate correlations with future expectations and life satisfaction Finally, care leavers with higher future expectations of family and friends reported higher life satisfaction (r = 0.14, p b .05). 3.4. Regression analyses Table 5 shows the results of the hierarchical multiple regression analyses. The logic in the order in the hierarchical regression was to begin with the personal variables (gender, ethnicity and parent's status) and the placement history and then enter future expectations. Also, for each of the outcomes, all of the independent variables that were significant in the bivariate correlations and the overall future expectations variable were entered. Results show that even after controlling for gender, ethnicity, parent status, total number of placements and length of time in current placement, there was a positive and statistically significant relationship between future expectations and three of the outcome measures: satisfaction with housing, educational achievement and financial status. With regard to educational achievements, the model explained 12.2% of the variance in the care leavers' educational achievements

Table 5 Hierarchical multiple regression analyses on future outcomes in the areas of: satisfaction with housing, educational achievements, financial status, adjustment to military service and life satisfaction. Satisfaction with housing Variable

β

Gender Ethnicity Parents status Total placements Total length at current placement Overall future expectations F

0.04 0.19 −0.09 0.10 −0.01 0.12 0.03 0.13 −0.01 0.03 0.14 0.31 F(6, 215) = 1.08

⁎ p b .05. ⁎⁎ p b .01. ⁎⁎⁎ p b .001.

SE

Education achievements p

⁎

β

SE

0.04 0.09 0.22 0.05 0.02 0.05 0.24 0.06 0.02 0.02 0.14 0.15 F(6, 220) = 4.94⁎⁎⁎

p ⁎⁎ ⁎⁎⁎ ⁎ ⁎

Financial status β

SE

0.00 0.13 0.07 0.07 0.01 0.08 0.01 0.09 0.10 0.25 0.17 0.21 F(6, 217) = 1.78

Adjustment to military service p

⁎⁎

β

SE

0.04 0.32 0.17 0.16 0.03 0.20 0.19 0.22 0.08 0.06 0.05 0.53 F(6, 138) = 1.61

Life satisfaction p ⁎

β

SE

0.03 0.09 0.02 0.05 0.00 0.06 0.13 0.06 0.01 0.01 0.06 0.15 F(6, 214) = 0.79

p

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Another area in which the young adults had low expectation was education. Many of the participants had lower expectations with regard to educational achievements. They did not expect to graduate with a high school diploma or continue their postsecondary education. A year after leaving care, their educational achievements were also relatively low; only 40% of the young people had graduated high school. In addition to supporting the hypothesis that lower expectations are associated with poorer educational outcomes after leaving care, these findings are in line with the results of prior studies which have found that foster care alumni have lower education levels (Schiff & Benbenishty, 2006) and are less likely to acquire higher education than their peers in the general population (Barth, 1990; Cashmore & Paxman, 2006; Courtney, Dworsky, Lee, & Raap, 2010; Pecora et al., 2009). A recent study in Israel based on the analysis of administrative data for a cohort of children who were in care during their childhood indicated that care leavers had lower graduation rates and were less qualified to continue to postsecondary education compared with national cohort (Benbenishty & Shimoni, 2012). It seems that in the area of education, care leavers' future expectations were often realistic based on their educational achievements thus far. The results from the multivariate analysis also showed that future expectations were positively related to participants' educational outcomes after controlling for their demographic and placement history characteristics. These results suggested that care leavers' expectations of the future could play a potentially important role with regard to their educational attainment. This mirrors the findings of Beal and Crockett's (2010) study which followed 317 adolescents into early adulthood and found that aspirations and expectations regarding work and education predicted adult educational attainment. Because school achievements have a long-term impact on peoples' lives, it is important to understand how future expectations predict educational achievements. It could be that, in the area of education care leavers are aware of their ability and needs based on their school history. It could also be that their expectations are relatively low since they know that they still have a long way to go before achieving higher education. Earlier studies on adolescents at risk have found that positive future expectations can contribute to an adolescent's resilience and serve as a buffer against many negative outcomes (Tevendale et al., 2009; Raffaelli & Koller, 2005), as well as motivate adolescents to strive to achieve better outcomes in many different areas of adult life (Arbona, 2000; Armstrong & Crombie, 2000; Dubow et al., 2001). Similarly, results show that positive future expectations are associated with better educational achievement, stability and satisfaction in housing, improved economic status, better adjustment to military service, and higher overall life satisfaction. However, these associations were significant in only a few of the outcomes in the regression model when control variables were entered. This implies that the relationship between future expectations and outcomes might be more complicated, and that some variables, such as earlier school achievement, parental support, or parental education level, might function as moderators. The regression analysis also revealed that future expectations did not predict the care leavers' satisfaction in life or their ability to adjust to military service. The former could reflect a problem with the life satisfaction measure. This measure has rarely been used in research with care leavers, and it may not be a good measure of life satisfaction among this population. One reason for the latter might be the uncertain nature of their military service. In other areas, care leavers might have informed expectations. For example, they can decide where they might live (housing) or adjust their perception based on their abilities (education). However, with regard to their military service, they may not know what to expect or whether their current level of achievement or abilities is sufficient to ensure their success. If that is the case, preparation before leaving care should include information about the benefits and challenges of military service.

5. Implications for practice The current study's findings add to recent evidence that care leaver's beliefs about the future play an important role in their transition to adulthood (Harris, Duncan, & Boisjoly, 2002; Mello, 2008; Valadez, Silber, Meltzer, & D'Angelo, 2005). They also suggest that care leaver's expectations about their future do have predictive power during the life course, but that this power is greater in some areas than others. This raises a number of questions about at-risk young people in outof-home placements. Are their future expectations influenced by their caregivers, by their own achievements and abilities, or by some combination of both? Nurmi (2005) suggested that adolescents' aspirations initially develop as vague representations of possible future outcomes based on societal norms and parental expectations. As adolescents gain experience, they develop more self-knowledge (Eccles, Barber, Stone, & Hunt, 2003), which should lead to further refinements in their aspirations and expectations. This can also be expected of young people in care. The importance of addressing youth's future expectations in practice has been discussed in other studies. Catalano et al. (2004) examined youth development program outcomes and found that positive beliefs about the future are linked with long-term goal setting, beliefs about the value of higher education, more positive beliefs about work, better social and emotional adjustment in school, and self-competence. The researchers concluded that positive beliefs about the future are an important component of intervention programs that produce positive outcomes among youth. Gillham, Reivich, and Shatté (2002) also recommended that programs designed to foster young peoples' strengths and competencies include assistance with bolstering their optimism and improving their planning for the future. Taken together, this research suggests that youth in out of home care placements should be provided with the information, guidance, and support they need to believe in their ability to pursue and attain their goals. Studies indicate that a high proportion of adolescents in out-ofhome settings have poor achievement in school and attend special education classes because of learning difficulties (Shimoni & Benbenishty, 2011). If expectations of the future are both a reflection of actual circumstances and a cause of future outcomes, interventions that enable adolescents in out of home care settings to experience success in school may also help in altering not only their future expectations regarding educational achievement but also their educational outcomes. 6. Limitations The attempt to provide new insights into the correlation between the future expectations of young people in care and their outcomes has several limitations that should be mentioned. First, the study is based on self-reports from the young people themselves. A more comprehensive picture could be obtained by including data from other sources such as administrative or court records, caseworkers or parents. Second, the measures used in the study assessed expectations in some domains but not others, such as expectations related to military service. Third, the study didn't include and didn't measure factors that might mediate the relationship between future expectations and outcomes such as self-esteem, school achievement, or caregiver's expectations. Finally, care leavers were followed only a year after leaving care. 7. Future research This paper focused on care leavers' own future expectations and the relationship between those expectations and later outcomes. Future studies should examine what role caregiver expectations might play in this relationship. A qualitative study that examined the educational pathways among 18 to 22 year olds in Spain who were in care at age


16 found that even care leavers who showed educational promise and had high expectations lagged behind their peers who had not been in care with respect to educational attainment a year after leaving care. Factors that were associated with these lags in educational attainment included low expectations of adults providing them with support (Montserrat, Cases, & Malo, 2012). If caregivers have low expectations for young people in care, then perhaps more attention should be paid to raising those expectations. There has also been little work examining which factors predict youth expectations (Thompson & Zuroff, 2010). An earlier study found that the variables that predict positive future expectations among care leavers included social support from the mother and peers as well as the care leaver's optimism (Sulimani-Aidan & Benbenishty, 2011). Future studies should examine other potential predictors in order to learn how their future expectations are formed and how to raise future expectations. Finally, future studies should examine future expectations in other domains, whether future expectations vary over time, and if they are correlated with outcomes in other areas in adult life.

8. Conclusion In conclusion, this paper scrapes the surface of a complicated set of relationships between young person's perceptions and outcomes in multiple developmental domains and there is a need to dive deeply into the relationships between these expectations and each outcome domain. Care leavers are making a transition from being adolescents to being adults, a period when their perspective on the future is going through an important change. As they develop further, adolescents' aspirations become more realistic, based on their interests, perceived abilities, and individual characteristics, as well as the opportunities available to them (Nurmi, 2005). Young people who age out of care seem to have a poor beginning; however, they could use their time while in care to strengthen their abilities and skills. Encouraging them to have high expectations could help them have more positive experiences, improve their abilities and self-esteem, and make them more aware of the opportunities in all domains of their lives.

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