B2 2050. +24cm. No. B2_30y. B2_Max. I.B2.0_1. Extent of the floods caused by
30y storm rainfall (but without storm surge) and. 100y extreme upstream inflow ...
Scenario Modeling for Ho Chi Minh City: Future Climate Risk Communication Through Simulation and Visualization Anond Snidvongs Southeast Asia START Regional Center Chulalongkorn University Bangkok, Thailand
Nguyen Huu Nhan Southern Hydrometeorological Forecasting Center Ho Chi Minh, Viet Nam
Simulation and Modeling Tools Used
•Monsoon Driven Climate: PRECIS downscaled of ECHAM4 A2 and B2 GCM’s •Storms: Modified Linda •Sea Level: DIVA •Hydrodynamic: HydroGIS A total of 27 scenarios
INPUTS
SCENARIOS
PURPOSES
Seasonal Rainfall
Extreme Rainfall
Stor m Surge
Mean Sea Level
Upstream Inflow
Landuse
I.BL.0
Baseline _Max
No
No
Baseline
Baseline
Baseline
I.B2.0
B2_Max
No
No
B2 2050 +24cm
Baseline
Baseline
I.A2.0
A2_Max
No
No
A2 2050 +26cm
Baseline
Baseline
I.BL.1
Baseline _Max
No
No
No
Baseline
2050
I.B2.1
B2_Max
No
No
B2 2050 +24cm
Baseline
2050
I.A2.1
A2_Max
No
No
A2 2050 +26cm
Baseline
2050
I.BL.0_1
Baseline _Max
Baseline _30y
No
No
100y
2050
I.B2.0_1
B2_Max
B2_30y
No
B2 2050 +24cm
100y
2050
I.A2.0_1
A2_Max
A2_30y
No
A2 2050 +26cm
100y
2050
Extent and duration of the ‘regular’ seasonal monsoon floods with current landuse
Extent and duration of the ‘regular’ seasonal monsoon floods with planned future landuse and flood control system
Extent of the floods caused by 30y storm rainfall (but without storm surge) and 100y extreme upstream inflow; with planned future landuse and flood control system
INPUTS
SCENARIOS
PURPOSES
Seasonal Rainfall
Extreme Rainfall
Storm Surge
Mean Sea Level
Upstrea m Inflow
Landuse
II.BL.0
Baseline_ Max
Baseline_30y
Linda
No
100y
Baseline
II.B2.0
B2_Max
B2_30y
Linda
B2 2050 +24cm
100y
Baseline
II.A2.0
A2_Max
A2_30y
Linda
A2 2050 +26cm
100y
Baseline
II.BL.1
Baseline_ Max
Baseline_30y
Linda
No
100y
2050
II.B2.1
B2_Max
B2_30y
Linda
B2 2050 +24cm
100y
2050
II.A2.1
A2_Max
A2_30y
Linda
A2 2050 +26cm
100y
2050
II.BL.0_a
Baseline_ Max
No
Linda
No
Baseline
Baseline
II.B2.0_a
B2_Max
No
Linda
B2 2050 +24cm
Baseline
Baseline
II.A2.0_a
A2_Max
No
Linda
A2 2050 +26cm
Baseline
Baseline
II.BL.0_b
Baseline_ Max
Baseline_30y
No
No
100y
Baseline
II.B2.0_b
B2_Max
B2_30y
No
B2 2050 +24cm
100y
Baseline
II.A2.0_b
A2_Max
A2_30y
No
A2 2050
100y
Baseline
Extent of the ‘extreme’ floods driven by combination of tropical storms (typhoons) surge, mean sea level rise, 30y rainfall and 100y upstream inflow; with current landuse Extent of the ‘extreme’ floods driven by combination of storms surge, mean sea level rise, 30y rainfall and 100y upstream inflow; with planned future landuse and flood control system Extent of floods and saltwater intrusion caused by storm surge and sea level rise only in current landuse
Extent of the floods caused by 100 y extreme upstream inflow and 30y storm rainfall (without storm surge) in current landuse
INPUTS
SCENARIOS
PURPOSES
Seasonal Rainfall
Extreme Rainfall
Storm Surge
Mean Sea Level
Upstream Inflow
Landuse
III.bl.0
Baseline_ Min
No
No
No
Baseline
Baseline
III.B2.0
B2_Min
No
No
B2 2050 +24cm
Baseline
Baseline
III.A2.0
A2_Min
No
No
A2 2050 +26cm
Baseline
Baseline
I.BL.1_1
Baseline_ Max
Baselin e_30y
No
No
100y
2050
I.B2.1_1
B2_Max
B2_30y
No
B2 2050 +24cm
100y
2050
I.A2.1_1
A2_Max
A2_30y
No
A2 2050 +26cm
100y
2050
Extent of combination effect of drought and sea level rise on the water quality especially risk of salination under current land use
Extent of floods driven by 30y rainfall, 100y upstream inflow and mean sea level rise; with planned future landuse and flood control system
3 and 5-days Extreme Rainfalls with 30 and 100 y Return Periods 250
Basel
250
200
200
150
150
Basel
100
30-y
100
30-y
50
100y
50
100y
0
0 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
250
1
2050 A2
2
3
4
5
6
7
250
200
200
150
150
2050 A2
100
30-y r
100
30-y
50
100y
50
100y
0
0 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
250
1
2050 B2
2
3
4
5
6
7
250
200
200
150
150
2050 B2
100
30-y
100
30-y
50
100y
50
100y
0
0 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
DIVA Sea Level Projections
7 103 104
23 2 11 22 2 11
01 2 11 24 2 11
105
18 2 11
106 107 108
BEN RE
O C RANG
8
109
23 1 11
RAV H
212211111
CAN HO
24 1 11
G ANG
01 2 11
02 2 11
03 2 11
04 2 11
05 2 11
12
06 2 1
VNH O NG
07 2 11
P O CHM NH
08 2 11
11
09 2 11
NNH
10 2 11
E
14 2 11 13 2 11
KEN
16 2 11 15 2 11
17 2 11
O
12 2 11
CAM AU
20 2 11 19 2 11
DO NG HAP
11 2 11
03 3 11 02 3 11
9 21 2 11
08 3 11
10 07 3 11 06 3 11 05 3 11 04 3 11
13
DAC C
O NG E AM O NG
A DO G NAI
BARA BNH HU N
Storm Scenarios
NG ANG ANG VUNG AU
Linda PA2 Linda PA1
Linda 1997 110
Fig 1. The effect of flood control system of HCMC for points inside flood protection area (example: District 1 of HCMC)
Fig 2. The effect of flood control system of HCMC for points outside flood protection area (example: Sai Gon Main River)
