downsizing and/or cylinder deactivation. ▫ variable compression ratio (VCR). ▫
variable valve train (VVT). ▫ Diesel-fueled engines will slightly be improved in ...
Renewable energies | Eco-friendly production | Innovative transport | Eco-efficient processes | Sustainable resources
Future technologies in transportation sector and impact on oil demand Olivier APPERT, Chairman and CEO
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International Energy Forum Riyad, 7 February 2011
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Fuel conservation in transport sector and Implications on World oil demand
2
Determinants of oil transportation demand
New technological developments
Implications for oil demand
Transportation and oil demand
© IFP
Oil demand by products
3
Transportation : 36 Mbd Aviation : 6.5 Mbd Source : KBC (2010)
Trends 1980 / 2010 Oil demand structure Transportation : 33 % to 42 % Aviation : 6 to 7 % Annual growth Diesel : 3.3 % Gasoline : 1.2 % kerosene : 1.6 % Others : 0.6 %
Determinants of transportation demand Population
Income Mobility
Regulation Taxes, Price Technology
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Oil Substitutes
4
Motorisation
Oil demand
Population and Income 8 000
50 000
Population (Millions)
GDP 2008 per capita
45 000
7 000
40 000 6 000 35 000 5 000
30 000
4 000
25 000
3 000
20 000 15 000
2 000 10 000 1 000
5 000
0
0 OCDE
Non OCDE
Chine
OCDE
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2008 - 2030
5
Source : World Bank, IMF
Non OCDE
Chine
Impact on Automobile demand Vehicles per capita and Income 900
Vehicles per 1000 people
UnitedStates
Trends 1985 / 2007
800
Global Growth in Light Duty Vehicles
700 600 UE
500
Japon 400 300 200 Brazil
Turkey
South Korea
100
GDP 2005 / hab
China
0 0
5 000 10 000 15 000 20 000 25 000 30 000 35 000 40 000 45 000
© IFP
A rapid growth of the vehicle fleets in developing and transition countries. 6
Source : IEA, Others
Impact on oil demand New Policies scenario Transport demand
Trends 2008 / 2035 Transport: + 20.7 Mbd including Oil: + 15.7 Mbd Substitutes: + 5 Mbd
70 65 60 55 50
+ 40 % in 2030
45 40 35 30 2008
2015
2020
Oil in Transport
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Source : IEA WEO2010
7
Biofuels
2025 Electricity
2030 Other fuels
2035
Biofuels and others: 8 Mbd in 2035
Challenges CO2 emissions : + 33 % (2008/2035)
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Fuel conservation in transport sector and Implications on World oil demand
8
Determinants of oil transportation demand
New technological developments
Implications for oil demand
Standards improvement and impact on consumption unit CO2 Emissions Standards
CO2 Emissions and consumption 9
8
7 l/100 km
Gasoline 6 Diesel 5
4
Source : ICCT / 50BY50_report
3 70
90
110
130
150
170
190
210
CO2 (g/km)
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US: average fuel economy standard of 35.5 mpg (6,5 l/100 km) in 2016. Closed to the average for new car in Europe in 2006. Europe: A real technical challenge in 2020 (95 gco2/km). 9
Fuel conservation in transport sector and Implications of IC technologies
Gasoline-fueled engines will slightly be improved in the future with:
new combustion processes (direct injection, lean burn engines, CAI) downsizing and/or cylinder deactivation variable compression ratio (VCR) variable valve train (VVT)
Diesel-fueled engines will slightly be improved in the future with:
Aftertreatment will reduce pollutant emissions with new technologies:
-20% to -30%
new combustion processes (HCCI, very high pressure injection) variable compression ratio (VCR) variable valve train (VVT)
particulate filter oxidation catalyst improvement Selective catalyst reduction or NOxadsorber
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-10 to -15% 10
Technological responses New motorisations Develop alternative solutions to combustion engine
Dedicated engine • NGV, DME • Hydrogen
Electric vehicle • Batteries • Fuel cells
Batteries Generator
Hybrid vehicle thermal/electric • System modeling © IFP
• Control strategies 11
Thermal engine
Electric engine epicyclic train
Hybrid consumption versus gasoline and gasoil Consumption unit by fuel for existing cars (70 Kw) Hybrid gasoline
9
Gasoline
8
Diesel
7
L/100 km
6 5 4
Hybrid VS Diesel -20 % on average (- 17 to 34 %)
3 2 1 0
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Consump. Town
12
Unit consumption : Hybrid VS Gasoline -35 % on average (- 25 to 50 %)
Consump. Road
Mixt Consumpt.
A real potential from "stop and start" to "plug-in" But cost issues to be tackled (from use cost reduction to public support – CO2 value)
Other technical responses Potential fuels economy improvements
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Non engine
13
el
(aerodynamics, rolling resistance, energy management, weight reduction) so l.
%
50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
20 to 50 % reduction feasible based on non engine
Weight
Engine
Total
and engine improvements
Measures in the aviation sector Targets : Stabilize carbon emissions from 2020
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Halving Emissions by 2050 compared to 2005.
14
New fuels will impact oil demand Oil substitutes development
Second generation biofuels
14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2015
2020
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Biofuels NEP
15
2025
Others substitutes NEP
2030
Biofuels "450 ppm"
2035 Others "450 ppm"
New Policies Scenario: 8 Mbd in 2035 (Biofuels : 4 Mbd) 450 ppm : 13 Mbd in 2035 (Biofuels : 8 Mbd)
Others GTL, CTL, NGV, Elec., Hydrogen....
A radical change for US
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Fuel consumption trends (New vehicles)
Impact on oil demand (Light duty Vehicules)
Fuel efficiency + Biofuels effect - mobility development = Slight decline of oil consumption Source : DOE 2011
16
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Fuel conservation in transport sector and Implications on World oil demand
17
Determinants of oil transportation demand
New technological developments
Implications for oil demand
World : Parc development and consumption unit (Optimistic case) 1400
Unit consumpt. l/100 km
1200
L / 100 km
1000 800 600
World vehicles (Millions)
400 200
Elec. Hybrid Thermal
0
4 3 2 1 0
Hyp. 2020 / 2030 Hybrid vehicles : Sales : from 20 % to 70 % Electric From 5 to 10 %
20 09 20 11 20 13 20 15 20 17 20 19 20 21 20 23 20 25 20 27 20 29
Conso. Moyenne l/100 km
9 8 7 6 5
Impact on consumption unit: - 14 % in 2020; - 36 % in 2030 Slightly under mobility development (+ 50 %)
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Source : IFP
18
Transport and Oil demand Oil demand in transportation New policies and 450 ppm scenarios 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 2008
2015
2020 450 ppm
2025
2008 / 2035 Oil demand : New Policies: + 16 Mbd 450 ppm : + 2 Mbd 52 Mbd considering efficiency + 15 % (motors), & substitutes effects
2030
2035
New Energy Policy
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Source : IEA WEO2010
19
A potential reduction of 14 Mb/d in 2035
A new model in OCDE ? Changes since 2007 2008 Oil price, crisis effect, Bonus malus... 16
8,0
North America
14
7,0
12
6,0
10
5,0
8
4,0
6
3,0
4
2,0
2
1,0
0
0,0 2000
2002
2004
Gasoline + Diesel
2006
2008
2010
Jet and Kerosene
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Asia
2,5 2,0 1,5 1,0 0,5 0,0
2000
2002
2004
Gasoline + Diesel
Gasoline + Diesel (OCDE) 2000 / 2006: 1.7 % /y 2006 / 2011: - 0.2 % /y
20
3,0
Europe
2006
2008
2010
Jet and Kerosene
2000
2002
2004
Gasoline + Diesel
2006
2008
2010
Jet and Kerosene
Kerosene (OCDE) 2000 / 2006: 0 % /y 2006 / 2011: - 2.5 % /y
Huge uncertainties (2030+) Trafic Economy, oil price, Taxes, Mobility... ?
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Consumption unit Parc structure, Efficiency, Behaviour...?
21
+ 50 % by 2030 ?
+ substitutes effect - 20 % - 40 % ?
Transport Oil consumption ? + 30 %, + 10 %,
0%? -30% (2050?) Range : 47 to 61 Mbd in 2035 (New Policies / 450 ppm)
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