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David N. Wear, Project Leader and Research ... CHAPTER 7 Forest Forecasts for the Pacific Coast Region . ... The third and ..... blocks indicate the market scenario for the respective RPA scenario (all ...... (Source: http://www.ccsr.u-tokyo.ac.jp/kyosei/hasumi/MIROC/tech-repo.pdf); ...... A2 is intermediate to RPA A1B and B2.
Forecasts of Forest Conditions in U.S. Regions Under Future Scenarios A Technical Document Supporting the Forest Service 2010 RPA Assessment David N. Wear, Robert Huggett, Ruhong Li, Benjamin Perryman, and Shan Liu

The Authors: David N. Wear, Project Leader and Research Forester, Forest Economics and Policy, Southern Research Station, Research Triangle Park, NC 27709; Robert Huggett, Research Assistant; Ruhong Li, Research Associate; Benjamin Perryman, Research Associate; and Shan Liu, Research Assistant, Department of Forestry and Environmental Resources, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695.

Product Disclaimer The use of trade or firm names in this publication is for reader information and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Department of Agriculture of any product or service.

March 2013 Southern Research Station 200 W. T. Weaver Blvd. Asheville, NC 28804

www.srs.fs.usda.gov

Forecasts of Forest Conditions in Regions of the United States under Future Scenarios: A Technical Document Supporting the Forest Service 2010 RPA Assessment David N. Wear, Robert Huggett, Ruhong Li, Benjamin Perryman, and Shan Liu

Contents List of Figures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . iii Abstract . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xi Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 chapter 1

Scenarios from the Resources Planning Act Assessment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

chapter 2

Methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

chapter 3

Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

chapter 4

Forest Forecasts for the South . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11

chapter 5

Forest Forecasts for the North . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35

chapter 6

Forest Forecasts for the Rocky Mountains Region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54

chapter 7

Forest Forecasts for the Pacific Coast Region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70

Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88 Acknowledgments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89 Literature Cited . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89 appendix

ii

Structure of the Forest Dynamics Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92

List of Figures Figure 1—General schematic of the U.S. Forest Assessment System. The first (left) column describes the data sets and projections that initiate analysis and define scenarios. The second column describes the three modeling components of the system. The third and fourth columns describe primary outputs generated and secondary analysis that can be supported respectively . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Figure 2—Resources Planning Act (RPA) Assessment regions: South, North, Rocky Mountain, and Pacific Coast . . . . . . . . . . 2 Figure 3—Total projected population in the United States to 2060 for the three Resources Planning Act (RPA) scenarios (A1B, A2, and B2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Figure 4—Projected per capita personal income (2006 = 100) for the United States to 2060 for the three Resources Planning Act (RPA) scenarios (A1B, A2, and B2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Figure 5—Projected change in population density (people per square mile), 1997–2060, for the Resources Planning Act (RPA) A1B scenario. Areas in blue would experience population increases under this scenario. Areas in green are forecasted to experience population declines over this period . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Figure 6—Empirical distributions of monthly temperatures for the South Region for a historical decade (1991–2000) and projections of the nine Resources Planning Act (RPA) scenario-climate combinations in the 2060 decade (2051–60) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 Figure 7—Empirical distributions of monthly temperatures for the South Region for a historical decade (1991–2000) and for 6 successive decades of climate projections (A) for the Resources Planning Act (RPA) A1B-MIROC3.2 combination and (B) for the RPA B2-CSIRO-Mk2 combination . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 Figure 8—Results of county-level Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests comparing distributions of monthly temperatures for a historical decade (1991–2000) and 6 successive forecasted decades (2010–60) for the Resources Planning Act (RPA) A1B-MIROC3.2 combination. Black areas indicate distributional disagreement between historical and projected temperature distributions (p value