1 day ago ... Independent Statistics & Analysis. Drilling Productivity Report. The six regions
analyzed in this report accounted for nearly 90% of domestic oil ...
Independent Statistics & Analysis
U.S. Energy Information Administration
November 2017
Drilling Productivity Report For key tight oil and shale gas regions
Contents Year-over-year summary Anadarko Region Appalachia Region Bakken Region Eagle Ford Region Haynesville Region Niobrara Region Permian Region Explanatory notes Sources
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Year-over-year summary
November 2017 drilling data through October projected production through December
Drilling Productivity Report New-well oil production per rig
New-well gas production per rig
barrels/day
thousand cubic feet/day December-2016
December-2017
December-2016
3,000
18,000
2,500
15,000
2,000
12,000
1,500
9,000
1,000
6,000
500
3,000
December-2017
0
0 Anadarko
Appalachia
Bakken
Eagle Ford Haynesville
Niobrara
Legacy oil production change
Appalachia
Bakken
Eagle Ford Haynesville
Niobrara
Permian
Legacy gas production change
thousand barrels/day Anadarko
Anadarko
Permian
million cubic feet/day
Appalachia
Bakken
Eagle Ford Haynesville
Niobrara
Permian
0
Anadarko
Appalachia
Bakken
Eagle Ford Haynesville
Niobrara
Permian
0 (100)
(30)
(200)
(60)
(300) (400)
(90)
(500)
(120)
(600) (150) December-2016
(700)
December-2017
December-2016
December-2017
(800)
(180)
Indicated monthly change in oil production (Dec vs. Nov)
Indicated monthly change in gas production (Dec vs. Nov)
thousand barrels/day
million cubic feet/day December-2016
December-2017
December-2016
80
500
60
400
40
300
20
December-2017
200
0
100
-20
0
-40
-100
-60
-200
-80
-300
-100 Anadarko
Appalachia
Bakken
Eagle Ford Haynesville
Niobrara
Appalachia
Bakken
Eagle Ford Haynesville
Niobrara
Permian
Natural gas production
Oil production
million cubic feet/day
thousand barrels/day
December-2016
5,000
Anadarko
Permian
December-2016
December-2017
December-2017
30,000
4,000
24,000
3,000
18,000
2,000
12,000
1,000
6,000
0
0 Anadarko
Appalachia
Bakken
Eagle Ford Haynesville
Niobrara
Permian
U. S. Energy Information Administration | Drilling Productivity Report
Anadarko Appalachia
Bakken
Eagle Ford Haynesville
Niobrara
Permian
2
Anadarko Region
November 2017 drilling data through October projected production through December
Drilling Productivity Report
382 377
Oil +5 barrels/day month over month
Monthly additions from one average rig
December November
barrels/day
Anadarko Region New-well oil production per rig barrels/day 800
Rig count rigs
new-well oil production per rig
300
rig count
700
2,539 2,530
December November
Gas +9 thousand cubic feet/day month over month
thousand cubic feet/day
Anadarko Region New-well gas production per rig
Rig count rigs new-well gas production per rig 300 rig count
thousand cubic feet/day 4,800
250
4,000
250
200
3,200
200
150
2,400
150
100
1,600
100
600 500 400 300
200 50
100 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
0
800
50
0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Anadarko Region Legacy oil production change
Anadarko Region Legacy gas production change
thousand barrels/day 0
million cubic feet/day 0
0
(50)
(10)
(100) (20)
(150)
(200)
(30)
(250) (40)
(300)
(50) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
(350) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Anadarko Region Indicated change in oil production (Dec vs. Nov)
Anadarko Region Indicated change in natural gas production (Dec vs. Nov)
thousand barrels/day
million cubic feet/day
50
+46
-40
+6
400
40
+308
-295
+13
300
30
200
20
100
10 0
0 Nov 474 Mbbl/d
Production from new wells
Legacy production change
Anadarko Region Oil production
Net change
Dec 480 Mbbl/d
Oil +6 thousand barrels/day month over month
thousand barrels/day
Nov 6,083 MMcf/d
Production from new wells
Anadarko Region Natural gas production million cubic feet/day
1,000
6,000
800
5,000
Legacy production change
Net change
Dec 6,096 MMcf/d
Gas +13 million cubic feet/day month over month
4,000
600
3,000 400
2,000
200
0 2008
1,000
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
U. S. Energy Information Administration | Drilling Productivity Report
2017
0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 3
Appalachia Region
November 2017 drilling data through October projected production through December
Drilling Productivity Report
135 135
Oil 0 barrels/day month over month
November
barrels/day
Appalachia Region New-well oil production per rig barrels/day 3,000 2,500
Monthly additions from one average rig
December
Rig count rigs
new-well oil production per rig
180
rig count
December November
14,369 14,342
Gas +27 thousand cubic feet/day month over month
thousand cubic feet/day
Appalachia Region New-well gas production per rig
Rig count rigs
thousand cubic feet/day
18,000
new-well gas production per rig
180
rig count
150
15,000
2,000
120
12,000
120
1,500
90
9,000
90
1,000
60
6,000
60
500
30
3,000
30
0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
0
150
0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Appalachia Region Legacy oil production change
Appalachia Region Legacy gas production change
thousand barrels/day 0
million cubic feet/day 0
(2)
(150)
(4)
(300)
(6)
(450)
(8)
(600)
(10) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
(750) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Appalachia Region Indicated change in oil production (Dec vs. Nov)
Appalachia Region Indicated change in natural gas production (Dec vs. Nov)
thousand barrels/day
million cubic feet/day
15.0
+10
-7
+3
0
1,200
+1081
-687
+394
900
10.0
600 5.0
300
0.0
0 Nov 108 Mbbl/d
Appalachia Region Oil production thousand barrels/day
Production from new wells
Legacy production change
Net change
Dec 111 Mbbl/d
Oil +3 thousand barrels/day month over month
Nov 25,672 MMcf/d
Appalachia Region Natural gas production million cubic feet/day
5,000
30,000
4,000
25,000
3,000
Production from new wells
Legacy production change
Net change
Dec 26,066 MMcf/d
Gas +394 million cubic feet/day month over month
20,000 15,000
2,000 1,000 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 U. S. Energy Information Administration | Drilling Productivity Report
10,000
5,000 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 4
Bakken Region
November 2017 drilling data through October projected production through December
Drilling Productivity Report
1,276 1,253
Oil +23 barrels/day month over month
November
barrels/day
Bakken Region New-well oil production per rig barrels/day 1,400
Monthly additions from one average rig
December
Rig count rigs 250
new-well oil production per rig
1,200
200
rig count
1,000
1,601 1,588
December
November
Gas +13 thousand cubic feet/day month over month
thousand cubic feet/day
Bakken Region New-well gas production per rig
Rig count rigs
thousand cubic feet/day 8,400
250
new-well gas production per rig
7,200 6,000
200
rig count
800
150
4,800
150
600
100
3,600
100
2,400
400 50
200
0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
0
50
1,200 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Bakken Region Legacy oil production change
Bakken Region Legacy gas production change
thousand barrels/day 0
million cubic feet/day 0
(10)
(10)
(20)
(20)
0
(30)
(30)
(40)
(40)
(50)
(50)
(60)
(60)
(70)
(70) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
(80) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Bakken Region Indicated change in oil production (Dec vs. Nov)
Bakken Region Indicated change in natural gas production (Dec vs. Nov)
thousand barrels/day
million cubic feet/day
75
+64
-58
+6
100
+80
-57
+23
75
50
50 25
25
0
0 Nov 1,101 Mbbl/d
Production from new wells
Legacy production change
Bakken Region Oil production
Net change
Dec 1,107 Mbbl/d
Oil +6 thousand barrels/day month over month
thousand barrels/day 1,400 1,200 1,000
800 600 400 200 0 2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
U. S. Energy Information Administration | Drilling Productivity Report
2017
Nov 2,041 MMcf/d
Production from new wells
Bakken Region Natural gas production million cubic feet/day
Legacy production change
Net change
Dec 2,064 MMcf/d
Gas +23 million cubic feet/day month over month
8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 5
Eagle Ford Region
November 2017 drilling data through October projected production through December
Drilling Productivity Report
1,124 1,090
Oil +34 barrels/day month over month
November
barrels/day
Eagle Ford Region New-well oil production per rig
Rig count rigs
barrels/day 1,800
1,500 1,200
Monthly additions from one average rig
December
350
new-well oil production per rig
300
rig count
250 200
900
150
600 300
0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
4,503 4,283
December November
Gas +220 thousand cubic feet/day month over month
thousand cubic feet/day
Eagle Ford Region New-well gas production per rig
Rig count rigs
thousand cubic feet/day
9,000 7,500
350
new-well gas production per rig
300
rig count
250
6,000
200
4,500
150
100
3,000
100
50
1,500
50
0
0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Eagle Ford Region Legacy oil production change
Eagle Ford Region Legacy gas production change
thousand barrels/day 0
million cubic feet/day 0
(20)
0
(100)
(40)
(200)
(60)
(300)
(80)
(100)
(400)
(120) (500)
(140) (160) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
(600) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Eagle Ford Region Indicated change in oil production (Dec vs. Nov)
Eagle Ford Region Indicated change in natural gas production (Dec vs. Nov)
thousand barrels/day
million cubic feet/day
150
+88
-88
+0
400
100
300
50
200
0
100
-50
+351
-346
+5
0 Nov 1,222 Mbbl/d
Production from new wells
Legacy production change
Eagle Ford Region Oil production
Net change
Dec 1,222 Mbbl/d
Oil +0 thousand barrels/day month over month
thousand barrels/day 1,800
Nov 6,229 MMcf/d
Production from new wells
Eagle Ford Region Natural gas production million cubic feet/day
Legacy production change
Net change
Dec 6,234 MMcf/d
Gas +5 million cubic feet/day month over month
10,000
1,500
8,000
1,200
6,000
900 4,000
600
2,000
300 0 2008
2009
2010 2011
2012
2013 2014
2015
2016 2017
U. S. Energy Information Administration | Drilling Productivity Report
0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 6
Haynesville Region
November 2017 drilling data through October projected production through December
Drilling Productivity Report
33 33
Oil 0 barrels/day month over month
Monthly additions from one average rig
December November
barrels/day
Haynesville Region New-well oil production per rig barrels/day 1,400
Rig count rigs new-well oil production per rig
1,200
rig count
1,000 800 600
November
Gas +26 thousand cubic feet/day month over month
thousand cubic feet/day
Haynesville Region New-well gas production per rig
Rig count rigs
thousand cubic feet/day
300
8,400
250
7,200
200
6,000
150
7,789 7,763
December
new-well gas production per rig rig count
300 250 200
4,800
150
3,600 100
400
50
200 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
0
100
2,400
50
1,200
0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Haynesville Region Legacy oil production change
Haynesville Region Legacy gas production change
thousand barrels/day 0
million cubic feet/day 0
0
(100)
(200)
(1)
(300)
(400) (2)
(500)
(600) (3) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
(700) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Haynesville Region Indicated change in oil production (Dec vs. Nov)
Haynesville Region Indicated change in natural gas production (Dec vs. Nov)
thousand barrels/day 2.0
million cubic feet/day
+2
-2
+0
400
1.5
300
1.0
200
0.5
100
0.0
+374
-243
+131
0 Nov 45 Mbbl/d
Production from new wells
Legacy production change
Haynesville Region Oil production
Net change
Dec 45 Mbbl/d
Oil +0 thousand barrels/day month over month
thousand barrels/day 2,000
Nov 7,128 MMcf/d
Production from new wells
Haynesville Region Natural gas production million cubic feet/day
Legacy production change
Net change
Dec 7,259 MMcf/d
Gas +131 million cubic feet/day month over month
12,000 10,000
1,600
8,000
1,200
6,000 800
4,000
400 0 2008
2,000 2009
2010 2011
2012
2013 2014
2015
2016 2017
U. S. Energy Information Administration | Drilling Productivity Report
0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 7
Niobrara Region
November 2017 drilling data through October projected production through December
Drilling Productivity Report
1,095 1,084
Oil +11 barrels/day month over month
November
barrels/day
Niobrara Region New-well oil production per rig barrels/day 1,400 1,200
Monthly additions from one average rig
December
Rig count rigs 140
new-well oil production per rig
4,269 4,259
December November
Gas +10 thousand cubic feet/day month over month
thousand cubic feet/day
Niobrara Region New-well gas production per rig thousand cubic feet/day 8,400
Rig count rigs 140
new-well gas production per rig
120
7,200
100
6,000
800
80
4,800
80
600
60
3,600
60
400
40
2,400
40
200
20
1,200
20
rig count
1,000
0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
0
120
rig count
100
0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Niobrara Region Legacy oil production change
Niobrara Region Legacy gas production change
thousand barrels/day 0
million cubic feet/day 0
0
(30)
(10)
(60)
(20)
(90) (30)
(120)
(40)
(150)
(50) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
(180) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Niobrara Region Indicated change in oil production (Dec vs. Nov)
Niobrara Region Indicated change in natural gas production (Dec vs. Nov)
thousand barrels/day
million cubic feet/day
80
+47
-40
+7
200
60
150
40
100
20
50
0
+183
-140
+43
0 Nov 516 Mbbl/d
Niobrara Region Oil production thousand barrels/day 1,000
Production from new wells
Legacy production change
Net change
Dec 523 Mbbl/d
Oil +7 thousand barrels/day month over month
800 600
Nov 4,753 MMcf/d
Production from new wells
Niobrara Region Natural gas production million cubic feet/day
Legacy production change
Net change
Dec 4,796 MMcf/d
Gas +43 million cubic feet/day month over month
6,000 5,000
4,000 3,000
400
200 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 U. S. Energy Information Administration | Drilling Productivity Report
2,000
1,000 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 8
Permian Region
November 2017 drilling data through October projected production through December
Drilling Productivity Report
586 582
Oil +4 barrels/day month over month
Monthly additions from one average rig
December November
barrels/day
Permian Region New-well oil production per rig barrels/day 800 700
Rig count rigs
new-well oil production per rig
600
rig count
November
400 300
Gas +15 thousand cubic feet/day month over month
thousand cubic feet/day
Permian Region New-well gas production per rig
Rig count rigs
thousand cubic feet/day 4,800
600
new-well gas production per rig
500
4,000
400
3,200
400
300
2,400
300
200
1,600
200
100
800
100
600 500
1,050 1,035
December
500
rig count
200 100 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
0
0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Permian Region Legacy oil production change
Permian Region Legacy gas production change
thousand barrels/day 0 (20) (40) (60) (80) (100) (120) (140) (160) (180) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
million cubic feet/day 0
Permian Region Indicated change in oil production (Dec vs. Nov)
Permian Region Indicated change in natural gas production (Dec vs. Nov)
thousand barrels/day
million cubic feet/day
200
+223
-165
+58
(50) (100) (150) (200) (250) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
500
+399
-229
+170
400
150
300
100
200
50
100
0
0 Nov 2,628 Mbbl/d
Production from new wells
Legacy production change
Permian Region Oil production
Net change
Dec 2,686 Mbbl/d
Oil +58 thousand barrels/day month over month
thousand barrels/day 3,000
Nov 9,020 MMcf/d
million cubic feet/day
15,000
12,000
1,500
9,000
1,000
6,000
500
3,000 2010
Legacy production change
Net change
Dec 9,190 MMcf/d
Gas +170 million cubic feet/day month over month
18,000
2,000
2009
Production from new wells
Permian Region Natural gas production
2,500
0 2008
0
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
U. S. Energy Information Administration | Drilling Productivity Report
2017
0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 9
Explanatory notes
November 2017
Drilling Productivity Report The Drilling Productivity Report uses recent data on the total number of drilling rigs in operation along with estimates of drilling productivity and estimated changes in production from existing oil and natural gas wells to provide estimated changes in oil1 and natural gas2 production for seven key regions. EIA’s approach does not distinguish between oil-directed rigs and gas-directed rigs because once a well is completed it may produce both oil and gas; more than half of the wells do that.
Monthly additions from one average rig Monthly additions from one average rig represent EIA’s estimate of an average rig’s 3 contribution to production of oil and natural gas from new wells. 4 The estimation of new-well production per rig uses several months of recent historical data on total production from new wells for each field divided by the region's monthly rig count, lagged by two months. 5 Current- and next-month values are listed on the top header. The month-over-month change is listed alongside, with +/- signs and color-coded arrows to highlight the growth or decline in oil (brown) or natural gas (blue). New-well oil/gas production per rig Charts present historical estimated monthly additions from one average rig coupled with the number of total drilling rigs as reported by Baker Hughes. Legacy oil and natural gas production change Charts present EIA’s estimates of total oil and gas production changes from all the wells other than the new wells. The trend is dominated by the well depletion rates, but other circumstances can influence the direction of the change. For example, well freeze-offs or hurricanes can cause production to significantly decline in any given month, resulting in a production increase the next month when production simply returns to normal levels. Projected change in monthly oil/gas production Charts present the combined effects of new-well production and changes to legacy production. Total new-well production is offset by the anticipated change in legacy production to derive the net change in production. The estimated change in production does not reflect external circumstances that can affect the actual rates, such as infrastructure constraints, bad weather, or shut-ins based on environmental or economic issues. Oil/gas production Charts present all oil and natural gas production from both new and legacy wells since 2007. This production is based on all wells reported to the state oil and gas agencies. Where state data are not immediately available, EIA estimates the production based on estimated changes in new-well oil/gas production and the corresponding legacy change. Footnotes: 1. Oil production represents both crude and condensate production from all formations in the region. Production is not limited to tight formations. The regions are defined by all selected counties, which include areas outside of tight oil formations. 2. Gas production represents gross (before processing) gas production from all formations in the region. Production is not limited to shale formations. The regions are defined by all selected counties, which include areas outside of shale formations. 3. The monthly average rig count used in this report is calculated from weekly data on total oil and gas rigs reported by Baker Hughes. 4. A new well is defined as one that began producing for the first time in the previous month. Each well belongs to the new-well category for only one month. Reworked and recompleted wells are excluded from the calculation. 5. Rig count data lag production data because EIA has observed that the best predictor of the number of new wells beginning production in a given month is the count of rigs in operation two months earlier.
U. S. Energy Information Administration | Drilling Productivity Report
10
Sources
November 2017
Drilling Productivity Report The data used in the preparation of this report come from the following sources. EIA is solely responsible for the analysis, calculations, and conclusions. Drilling Info (http://www.drillinginfo.com) Source of production, permit, and spud data for counties associated with this report. Source of real-time rig location to estimate new wells spudded and completed throughout the United States. Baker Hughes (http://www.bakerhughes.com) Source of rig and well counts by county, state, and basin. North Dakota Oil and Gas Division (https://www.dmr.nd.gov/oilgas) Source of well production, permit, and completion data in the counties associated with this report in North Dakota Railroad Commission of Texas (http://www.rrc.state.tx.us) Source of well production, permit, and completion data in the counties associated with this report in Texas Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (https://www.paoilandgasreporting.state.pa.us/publicreports/Modules/Welcome/Welcome.aspx) Source of well production, permit, and completion data in the counties associated with this report in Pennsylvania
West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection (http://www.dep.wv.gov/oil-andgas/Pages/default.aspx) Source of well production, permit, and completion data in the counties associated with this report in West Virginia Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission (http://cogcc.state.co.us) Source of well production, permit, and completion data in the counties associated with this report in Colorado Wyoming Oil and Conservation Commission (http://wogcc.state.wy.us) Source of well production, permit, and completion data in the counties associated with this report in Wyoming Louisiana Department of Natural Resources (http://dnr.louisiana.gov) Source of well production, permit, and completion data in the counties associated with this report in Louisiana Ohio Department of Natural Resources (http://oilandgas.ohiodnr.gov) Source of well production, permit, and completion data in the counties associated with this report in Ohio Oklahoma Corporation Commission (http://www.occeweb.com/og/oghome.htm) Source of well production, permit, and completion data in the counties associated with this report in Oklahoma
U. S. Energy Information Administration | Drilling Productivity Report
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