Early warning systems for climate related extreme ...

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for email notifications. ... service – Mandrill – to send out emails. ... exposure information and the automatic communication of warnings to users in Kenya.
Early warning systems for climate related extreme events: The development of an ICT based multi-hazard and multisector early warning platform in Kenya E. Vogela)b), A. Kooimanc), A. Sitatia), J. A. van Zantena), M. Habilova), M. de Bloisd), D. Machariae), F. Mitheue), Z. Zommersa) a)

United Nations Environment Programme, Division of Early Warning and Assessment, Nairobi, Kenya, b) University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia, c) Geo Enviagro Solutions International, Nairobi, Kenya, d) Upande Ltd, Nairobi, Kenya, e) Regional Centre for Mapping of Resources for Development, Nairobi, Kenya

The CLIM-WARN early warning information platform

Background Early warning systems for climate related hazards The Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on climate change shows that the frequency and/or intensity of different types of weather extreme events is likely to increase in a number of regions across the globe under climate change. Climate related disasters result in significant human and financial loss, placing development gains and security at risk. Early Warning Systems (EWS) form an important part of national disaster risk management (DRM) strategies and are important to protect communities against the immediate threat and consequences of climate- related extreme events.

The UNEP CLIM-WARN project The United Nations Environment Programme’s CLIMWARN project worked with local and international partners in three case study countries (Kenya, Ghana and Burkina Faso) to review the current state of multihazard EWS, to identify capacity gaps, to assess the needs of vulnerable communities and to develop a set of recommendations for decision makers to improve existing Early Warning Systems which are applicable beyond the case study countries. Based on the project’s findings and stakeholder consultations, the CLIM-WARN project developed a prototype of a multi-hazard and multi-sector Early Warning Platform for Kenya using innovate information and communication technologies (ICT). The platform integrates warnings for main risks in Kenya and provides an easily accessible interface between DRM agencies and the general public and aims to facilitate the communication of warnings to vulnerable groups and professionals.

Figure 1: Locations of case study countries of CLIM-WARN project

The CLIM-WARN early warning information platform is a proof-of-concept of a multi-hazard EWS, developed for the two major hazards in Kenya: flooding and drought. The prototype demonstrates the integration of different climate risks into one system and shows the relevant analysis and creation of warning messages for combinations of hazards and associated risks.

Functional design While the prototype is piloted in Kenya, the purpose is to provide a framework that can be applied in different countries and for different hazard types, sectoral impacts and users. It is developed around a flexible, modular structure that defines input data layers as well as processes, models and algorithms that produce intermediate products in the early warning system (Figure 2). Flooding: CREST

Exposure

Vulnerability module

Sensitivity

The prototype combines hazard modules driven by near-real time gridded weather data and a vulnerability module developed from multi-layer information on exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity into dynamic calculations of impacts and disaster risks. The prototype is developed for the Nzoia basin for flooding and Turkana and Kwale counties for drought as pilot areas in Kenya. It uses open data, a hydrological model and GIS flood tools. The drought risk module ranks risk as a function of drought hazard and vulnerability. The exceedance of a risk value triggers warning messages. In case of flood, messages are triggered by the flood hazard situation alone. The choice of indices and data layers determining the key modules are flexible and can be adjusted to the needs of specific users, be they DRR professionals, farmers, pastoralists, or other user groups.

User profiles

Hazard module

Drought: SPI

Hazard, vulnerability and risk modules

Impact / Risk module

Communication module

Adaptive capacity

Figure 2: Modular design of the CLIM-WARN early warning platform

Web platform The prototype is a web instance that monitors weather and climate conditions and visualizes information in interactive maps. It produces notifications, alerts and warnings and provides information on the severity of the conditions, on the vulnerability of the population and on expected impact. It can be accessed at prototype.climwarn.org

Figure 4: Maps of drought hazard, vulnerability and risk at the ward level (Turkana County, Kenya)

User profiles and communication Two types of users were distinguished: DRM professionals and the general public. A registration interface allows users to register with their telephone number for SMS messaging and their email address for email notifications. It is assumed that professionals will have access to the online platform and email, while the general public will be reached primarily by SMS and via intermediaries. Users can register for SMS alerts and email notifications. The application uses a commercial SMS gateway – AfricasTalking – to send out text messages and a commercial email infrastructure service – Mandrill – to send out emails.

Figure 3: The opening website of the CLIMWARN early warning platform

Conclusion The CLIM-WARN early warning information platform was developed as a proof-of-concept to illustrate the functionality and advantages of an openly accessible, integrated multi-hazard web platform for the visualization of hazard, vulnerability and exposure information and the automatic communication of warnings to users in Kenya. It is designed as a flexible system that can be applied in other countries and regions, adjusted to locally relevant hazard types, user groups, main sectors, communication and response needs. Next steps in the development of the prototype include: to add forecast rainfall and climate data, to enhance the spatial coverage of the prototype, to integrate more data sources from local authorities, to include additional hazard types, to enhance its user base and to incorporate the use of the Common Alert Protocol. Figure 5: Participants at the design meeting in Jan. 2015 in Nairobi, Kenya, gave feedback for the improvement of the CLIM-WARN prototype

The combination of multiple hazard datasets in one platform has several benefits: It ensures a comprehensive assessment of impacts in all major sectors and regions, it facilitates the creation of integrated response plans and the exchange of data and knowledge between different stakeholders. Furthermore, it enhances the visibility of risk and hazard data for the public and by this, helps to raise awareness about disaster risks.

UNEP CLIM-WARN: unepdewaags.unep.org/climwarn

Contact: Zinta Zommers, [email protected]