Economic Report - Westminster City Council

City of Westminster Economic Report LEA Baseline Study

City of Westminster

Economic Report Local Economic Assessment Baseline Study

August 2011

August 2011

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Foreword

The City Council has a new duty to conduct a local economic assessment. This baseline study forms a key part of that assessment and brings together a wide range of public data for Westminster. The Government is currently consulting on reform of the business rate regime which could give local authorities a new stake in the economic success of their areas. We have always prided ourselves on being amongst the most business‐friendly councils in the country. Westminster occupies a privileged position at the centre of one of the world’s most vibrant cities but we cannot rest on our laurels. Understanding and analysing the challenges and opportunities that come with this responsibility will be important in ensuring that our policies add real value to the economy of Westminster and London as a whole. This study assesses Westminster’s context within London, presents data on a Westminster wide basis and looks at smaller areas within the city to assess local economic performance. The study seeks to establish a robust evidence base to support our Economic Development Strategy and our Local Development Framework. We have split the study into three chapters – businesses, population and land and property and each chapter starts with headline figures, a descriptive summary and a SWOT analysis before presenting a wide variety of facts and figures that are followed by insight boxes that provide in depth focus on particular aspects of the chapter. The study demonstrates the importance of the Westminster economy, not just to our residents and businesses but to the wider UK economy. I hope you will find the document to be a useful reference tool. It is the first time that we have pulled together such a diverse array of information on our economy into a single document and I would welcome any comments on document. I would also like to know if you have any thoughts on how the Council can support economic activities in the city that we can incorporate into our new Economic Development Strategy to improve the city’s economic performance.

Brian Connell Cabinet Member, Enterprise and Volunteering August 2011

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Table of Contents Foreword ............................................................................................................................ 3 List of Figures ..................................................................................................................... 7 List of Maps ........................................................................................................................ 9 List of Tables ....................................................................................................................... 9 1 ‐ Westminster’s Economy ............................................................................................... 11 Chapter 1 Summary ............................................................................................................... 11 Chapter 1: Businesses and Economy, SWOT Analysis ........................................................... 12 Enterprise Numbers by Borough ........................................................................................... 13 Enterprises over time: London and Westminster .................................................................. 15 Enterprise Births and Deaths: London and Westminster ...................................................... 16 Enterprise Survival: London and Westminster ...................................................................... 17 Enterprise Turnover (£): London and Westminster ............................................................... 19 Employee Distribution across London ................................................................................... 20 Total Employee Jobs: London and Westminster ................................................................... 21 Projected Growth in Employees: London and Westminster ................................................. 22 Enterprises and Employees by Industry in Westminster ....................................................... 23 Enterprise Size in Westminster .............................................................................................. 24 Employee Change by Sector 2001‐2008 in Westminster ...................................................... 25 Enterprise Distribution in Westminster ................................................................................. 27 Employee Distribution in Westminster ................................................................................. 29 Employee Change (%) by Westminster Ward 2008‐2009 ..................................................... 30 Resident Occupation Structure by Westminster Ward ......................................................... 30 Gross Value Added (GVA): Westminster ............................................................................... 32 Business Rates: Westminster ................................................................................................. 35 Insight: Global 500 Company HQ’s in Westminster (CNN, 2010) ...................................... 37 Focus on: Retail .................................................................................................................. 38 Focus on: The Knowledge Economy: Higher Education ..................................................... 41 Insight: Global 100 Top Universities .................................................................................. 41 Focus on: Tourism & Night Time Economy ........................................................................ 43 Insight: Top London Visitor Attractions (Visit England, 2009) ........................................... 44 Insight: Theatres (Society of London Theatres, 2010) ....................................................... 45 Focus on: The Green Economy ........................................................................................... 46 Focus on: Business Services & Financial Intermediation .................................................... 48 Focus on: Creative Industries ............................................................................................. 49 Focus on: Charities/The Voluntary and Community Sector ............................................... 52 2 ‐ Population and Workforce ........................................................................................... 53 Chapter 2 Summary ............................................................................................................... 53 Chapter 2: Population and Workforce, SWOT Analysis ......................................................... 54 Resident Population – Historical Growth .............................................................................. 55 Reasons for Growth ‐ Migration ............................................................................................ 56 August 2011

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Resident Population – Future Growth ................................................................................... 58 Current Demographics ........................................................................................................... 61 Age‐Sex ................................................................................................................................... 61 Diverse Communities ............................................................................................................. 62 Skills and Education ............................................................................................................... 65 Qualifications ......................................................................................................................... 65 Skills Gap ................................................................................................................................ 66 Occupations ........................................................................................................................... 67 Economic Activity ................................................................................................................... 69 Unemployment ...................................................................................................................... 70 Local Deprivation ................................................................................................................... 74 Focus on: Daytime Population ........................................................................................... 77 Focus on: Travel to Work ................................................................................................... 80 Transportation and Connectivity ........................................................................................... 80 Insight: Busiest Stations ..................................................................................................... 81 Future Infrastructure Works .................................................................................................. 82 3 – Land and Property ....................................................................................................... 87 Chapter 3 Summary ............................................................................................................... 87 Chapter 3 SWOT Analysis ....................................................................................................... 88 Residential Property Market .................................................................................................. 89 Housing Tenure ...................................................................................................................... 93 Commercial Property Markets ............................................................................................... 94 Offices ................................................................................................................................ 94 Office Rents ........................................................................................................................ 94 Office Yields and Vacancy Rates ........................................................................................ 96 Future Development .............................................................................................................. 99 CAZ Land Use and Development ...................................................................................... 100 The Core Strategy Opportunity Areas .............................................................................. 100 NWEDA Development ...................................................................................................... 101 GLOSSARY & Acronyms ................................................................................................... 105 REFERENCES ................................................................................................................... 109 Appendices ..................................................................................................................... 113 Appendix 1: Westminster’s Key Policy Boundaries ............................................................. 113 Appendix 2: Westminster’s Ward Boundaries ..................................................................... 114 Appendix 3: Key Performance Indicators ............................................................................ 115

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List of Figures Figure 1: Local Enterprise Units by London Borough ................................................................ 13 Figure 2: Local Enterprise Units 2000‐2010, London and Westminster ................................... 15 Figure 3: Enterprise births and deaths trends, London and Westminster ................................ 16 Figure 4: Enterprise survival rate, London, Westminster and City of London .......................... 17 Figure 5: Percentage of businesses surviving for one year, 2004‐2008 .................................... 18 Figure 6: Enterprise total turnover, 2000‐2009, London and Westminster .............................. 19 Figure 7: Employees by London Borough .................................................................................. 20 Figure 8: Total employee jobs, 1995‐2009, London and Westminster ..................................... 21 Figure 9: Enterprises and Employees by Industry Sector .......................................................... 23 Figure 10: Westminster enterprises by size .............................................................................. 24 Figure 11: Industry sectors growth and decline 2001‐2008 ...................................................... 25 Figure 12: Industry sectors growth and decline 2008‐2009 ...................................................... 26 Figure 13: Enterprises by Ward, 2010 ....................................................................................... 28 Figure 14: Employee distribution by Ward, 2009 ...................................................................... 29 Figure 15: Employee Change by Ward 2008‐2009 .................................................................... 30 Figure 16: Occupation Structure by Ward, 2001 ....................................................................... 31 Figure 17: GVA in Westminster, past trends and future projections ........................................ 33 Figure 18: Westminster GVA by Industry Sector ....................................................................... 33 Figure 19: Shopper pedestrian counts in the West End and ORB streets ................................. 39 Figure 20: West End and National Sales monthly change, 2009‐2010 ...................................... 40 Figure 21: Universities Employment .......................................................................................... 42 Figure 22: Total trips by borough, 2007 .................................................................................... 43 Figure 23: Tourism expenditure 2007 ........................................................................................ 44 Figure 24: Employees by Creative Industries Sub‐Sector .......................................................... 50 Figure 25: Enterprises by Creative Industries sub sector .......................................................... 51 Figure 26: Mid Year Population Estimates for Westminster, 2001‐2010 .................................. 55 Figure 27: International Migration to Westminster .................................................................. 56 Figure 28: Migrant Workers by Country of Origin ..................................................................... 57 Figure 29: Projected Population Growth in Westminster 2008‐2033 ....................................... 58 Figure 30: Projected Growth in the working‐age population, 2009 onwards ........................... 59 Figure 31: Reasons for population growth in Westminster ...................................................... 60 Figure 32: Westminster’s Age Breakdown compared ............................................................... 61 Figure 33: The ethnic breakdown of Westminster’s residents.................................................. 63 Figure 34: Residents Qualifications, 2009 ................................................................................. 65 Figure 35: Adults with no or low qualification rates ................................................................. 66 Figure 36: Westminster residents by occupation ...................................................................... 67 Figure 37: Occupation profile of workers and residents in Westminster ................................. 68 Figure 38: Rate of Economically Active Residents by London Borough, 2010 .......................... 69 Figure 39: Reasons why economically inactive residents who want to work do not ................ 70 Figure 40: Rate of unemployment ............................................................................................. 71 Figure 41: JSA claimant rates ..................................................................................................... 72 Figure 42: JSA Claimant Rates across London Boroughs, January 2010 ................................... 72 Figure 43: Proportion of JSA Claimants by Duration of Claim in Westminster ......................... 73 August 2011

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Figure 44: Distribution of Daytime Population in Westminster ................................................ 78 Figure 45: Distribution of Night‐ Time Population in Westminster ........................................... 78 Figure 46: Busiest London Underground Stations (TFL, 2005‐2010) ......................................... 81 Figure 47: Busiest Mainline Rail Stations (ORR, 2008‐2010) ..................................................... 81 Figure 48: Places of work for Westminster residents aged 16‐74 ............................................. 84 Figure 49: Destination of working Westminster residents by occupation ................................ 85 Figure 50: Average House Prices in Westminster ...................................................................... 89 Figure 51: Broad average (mean) house prices, Westminster and London 2000‐2011 ............ 90 Figure 52: Household Income by Ward ..................................................................................... 92 Figure 53: Housing Tenure by Ward .......................................................................................... 93 Figure 54: West End Office Rents (Historic)............................................................................... 94 Figure 55: Prime Rents by Office Sub Market Area in Westminster ......................................... 95 Figure 56: Office Rents by London Sub Area ............................................................................. 95 Figure 57: West End Office Vacancy Rates ................................................................................ 96 Figure 58: Westminster Office Sub Markets Vacancy Rates ..................................................... 97 Figure 59: London Office Sub Markets Vacancy Rates .............................................................. 98

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List of Maps Map 1: Enterprises by London Borough .................................................................................... 14 Map 2: Employee distribution by borough. ............................................................................... 21 Map 3: Enterprise density by Westminster postcode ............................................................... 27 Map 4: Westminster’s shopping centres ................................................................................... 38 Map 5: Creative Industries Employees in Westminster ............................................................ 49 Map 6: SOA’s Experiencing Multiple Deprivation in Westminster ............................................ 76 Map 7: Westminster’s major transport infrastructure .............................................................. 80 Map 8: Current and Future Transportation schemes ................................................................ 82 Map 9: Percentage of Westminster Employees by area of residence ...................................... 83 Map 10: Borough of work for working Westminster residents ................................................. 85 Map 11: Median Household Income across Westminster LSOA’s ............................................ 91 Map 12: Westminster’s Office Sub Markets .............................................................................. 97 Map 13: Key Development Sites in Westminster ...................................................................... 99 Map 14: NWEDA Developments Since 2004 ........................................................................... 102

List of Tables Table 1: Employment Projections, London and Westminster ................................................... 22 Table 2: Westminster GVA by Industry Sector .......................................................................... 34 Table 3: Business Rates (rateable value) by Industry Sector in Westminster, 2010 ................. 35 Table 4: Top 20 Organisations/Businesses by Rateable Value (£) ............................................. 36 Table 5: Global 500 Company HQ’s ........................................................................................... 37 Table 6: Westminster’s Low Carbon Economy .......................................................................... 46 Table 7: Registered Charities in Westminster, 2011 ................................................................. 52 Table 8: 2008 SNPP, ONS Population Projection briefing 2010 ................................................. 60 Table 9: Annual Population Survey, Country of Birth Data ....................................................... 62 Table 10: Short Term Migrants to the UK by Local Authority ................................................... 63 Table 11: Proportion of employers reporting gaps in skills (%) ................................................. 66 Table 12: Claimant counts by Ward (average 2010 counts) ...................................................... 74 Table 13: Domain Weights in the Index of Deprivation 2010 ................................................... 75 Table 14: Numbers of individuals experiencing deprivation ..................................................... 77 Table 15: Method of Travel to Work – All workers in Westminster & London, Census 2001 .. 82 Table 16: Housing Rental Statistics (weekly rent, £) ................................................................. 90 Table 17: Household Income: Westminster, London, GB .......................................................... 92 Table 18: Housing Tenure, Westminster and London ............................................................... 93 Table 19: CAZ: Jobs and development recently delivered and in the pipeline ....................... 100 Table 20: Opportunity Areas: Developments and potential jobs in the pipeline .................... 101 Table 21: NWEDA: Jobs and developments recently delivered and in the pipeline ............... 101

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1 ‐ Westminster’s Economy        

Key Statistics 46,490 local enterprise units. 600,000 employees. GVA generation of £40 billion (2008) Most enterprises and employees of any London borough. Increasing turnover despite falling number of enterprises and employees. More business deaths than births in 2009. 15% projected employee growth over next 20 years. Nearly two thirds of employees located in two wards.

Chapter 1 Summary Westminster is a national and global centre of employment and industry, containing more enterprises and employees than any other London borough by some distance. This is also reflected in the GVA generated by Westminster, and by the business rates generated by Westminster enterprises. Employee growth is projected to be considerable over the next twenty years at rates above London and national averages, with associated rises in GVA expected over the same time period. In conjunction with the size of Westminster’s economy, one of its key features is its diversity in terms of industrial sectors and the range of occupations on offer to employees. The largest employment sector is business services and financial intermediation, which have been the main drivers of the economy in recent times, and are expected to be so for the next twenty years. Beyond the services, Westminster is the centre of national government, which is reflected in the number of public sector employees in the city. Tourism and entertainment related industries are also significant employers and drivers of the economy, as is the world renowned retail sector in the West End. The West End in itself is a global brand for retail and entertainment, attracting millions of visitors each year, while generating significant amounts of money and providing a range of employment opportunities. Further key sectors of interest include creative industries and the knowledge economy, where Westminster is a world leader. A further indicator of diversity is in the size of businesses, as Westminster contains both large multinational corporations and small businesses. This is reflected in the office floor space available which is flexible and responsive to need in different parts of the city. August 2011

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Business and employees are overwhelmingly concentrated in the central areas of Westminster, especially in the two large wards of St James and West End, which also contains the seat of the monarchy and central government, and numerous tourist attractions, landmarks and public spaces. The North West of the borough is more residential in nature, but is an area of significant deprivation, and is therefore designated as an economic development area to address socio‐ economic issues affecting the area and its population. Chapter 1: Businesses and Economy, SWOT Analysis Strengths  Number of enterprises and employees.  Benefits of agglomeration economies.  Size of GVA generated.  Diversity of economic sectors.  Diversity of occupations on offer.  Geographical Location.  Physical Heritage, landmarks.  Major tourism destination.  Stability relative to other areas.  Westminster ‘brand’ and reputation of area. Opportunities  2012 Olympics & legacy.  Other major events.  Potential for increased business rates retention and redistribution.  Migration cap gives potential for local residents to have more influence and opportunity in the labour market.  Social investment opportunities from corporations through big society.

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Weaknesses  Over reliance on business services.  Long term vulnerability of certain industries e.g. creative industries ‐ vulnerable to rising rents etc.  Strength and size of the public sector in a time of cut backs.  Fine balance of agglomeration economies.

Threats  Migration cap: negative effect on skills and labour market.  Terrorism threat.  Focus of disorder and social unrest (student riots/protests).  Business relocation (linked to government policy) e .g loss of financial services to other European cities etc.  Public Sector relocation & reduction.  Informal economies e.g. in tourist related activities, restaurants etc.  Other emerging retail centres e.g. Stratford.

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Enterprise Numbers by Borough Figure 1: Local Enterprise Units by London Borough

Source: IDBR, 2010

Westminster has by far the largest number of local enterprise units (an individual business or enterprise, including any additional chain stores or multiple outlets, which are counted individually) out of any London borough, with 46,490 local enterprise units, representing 11.7% of the London total of 392,540 local enterprise units (IDBR, 2010). Westminster has nearly twice the number of enterprises compared to Camden, which is the next highest borough, and over three times the number contained in the City of London. Most boroughs have between 5,000 and 12,000 enterprises, showing the dominance of Westminster in terms of the concentration of enterprises. The distribution map of enterprises across London (Map 1) shows a clear concentration of enterprises around the central boroughs and the central‐north and west areas. The far south area around Croydon also contains a large number of enterprises. The smallest number contained in the East of London beyond Tower Hamlets, and generally in the outer London boroughs.

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City of Westminster Economic Report LEA Baseline Study Map 1: Enterprises by London Borough

Source: IDBR, 2010

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Enterprises over time: London and Westminster Figure 2: Local Enterprise Units 2000‐2010, London and Westminster

Source: IDBR, 2000‐2010

Enterprise numbers in Westminster have been falling since 2008, and the effect of the recession is illustrated by the fairly substantial drop between 2009 and 2010, when over 1000 enterprises were lost (2.8%) (IDBR, 2000‐2010) at the height of the recent economic downturn. Enterprise numbers have been dropping steadily since the recent peak in 2001, when Westminster had nearly 50,000 local enterprise units. Recent growth between 2006 and 2008 was curtailed by the economic downturn from 2008 onwards. A similar picture is occurring across London, where the overall number of enterprises fell by over 7,500 (2.3%) between 2009 and 2010 (IDBR, 2000‐2010), following a longer period of growth from 2004 to 2009.

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Enterprise Births and Deaths: London and Westminster Figure 3: Enterprise births and deaths trends, London and Westminster

Source: ONS, 2009

The effect of the recession is clearly illustrated by enterprise birth and death data for both London and Westminster. Since 2008 there have been substantial changes in recent trends, with enterprise births starting to drop dramatically, accompanied by a sharp increase in enterprise deaths. This is reflected in the falling number of overall enterprises as shown in earlier data. The data above is taken from an ONS study on business demography which analyses fluctuations in the business population, including all businesses that had either turnover or employment during the reference period, based on data from the IDBR.

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Enterprise Survival: London and Westminster A longitudinal business demography study based on enterprises started up in 2004 has shown that across London, 94% of these businesses survived for one year, compared to 93% in Westminster, and 91% in the City of London. Of these businesses, around 42% survived for at least 5 years across London, compared to 43% in Westminster, and 53% in the City of London. Figure 4: Enterprise survival rate, London, Westminster and City of London

London GOR

Business Survival Rate (2004 start ups)

City of London Westminster

100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1 Year survival %

2 Year survival %

3 Year survival %

4 Year survival %

5 Year survival %

Source: ONS Business Demography, 2009

However, the data above only considers the long term survival of businesses started up in 2004. The effect of the recession is shown in Figure 5, as the percentage of business start ups surviving at least one year of trading has dropped dramatically since 2008. Over 90% of enterprises started up between 2004 and 2007 survived for at least one year in Westminster, the City of London, and London as a whole, with the rate generally improving over this time period. However, the data indicates that the one year survival rate started to drop in Westminster in 2007, with a more considerable drop of over 10% between 2007 and 2008, as the recession affected businesses started in 2008. This means that 80% of business start ups in 2008 survived for at least one year, compared to the 2006 high of 96% in Westminster. However, Westminster start ups are faring better than the City of London, which has experienced a substantial drop, as 97% of start ups in 2007 survived at least one year, compared to only 64% for 2008 start ups. August 2011

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City of Westminster Economic Report LEA Baseline Study Figure 5: Percentage of businesses surviving for one year, 2004‐2008

1 Year Survival % by start up year 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

London GOR City of London Westminster

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

Source: ONS Business Demography, 2009

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Enterprise Turnover (£): London and Westminster Figure 6: Enterprise total turnover, 2000‐2009, London and Westminster Enterprise Turnover in Westminster (£ Thousands)

London Enterprise Turnover (£ Thousands)

Missing data (2002)

2,500,000,000 2,000,000,000

400,000,000 350,000,000 300,000,000 250,000,000

1,500,000,000

200,000,000

1,000,000,000

150,000,000 100,000,000

500,000,000

50,000,000

0

0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Source: IDBR, 2010

Turnover figures show that across London more generally, as the number of enterprises is falling, turnover is also starting to fall. For London as a whole, turnover has remained fairly constant since 2004, following a significant fall between 2000 and 2003. However, in Westminster, despite the number of enterprises falling, total turnover has continued to rise since 2004, and is gradually increasing at a larger rate each year. This shows that although the recession seems to be negatively affecting the number of enterprises, it is not having the same effect on productivity. In general, turnover data for 2009 represents an increased by nearly 8% in Westminster compared to year 2000 data, despite a significant decrease in enterprise numbers. This compares to a turnover decrease of 45% for London as a whole, despite a significant increase in enterprise numbers over that time period.

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Employee Distribution across London Figure 7: Employees by London Borough

Employees by Borough 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000

W Ci est ty m o in f st To Lon er w Ca do er m n H d a e Isl mlen i n Hi g ts ll t So ingdon ut on Ha h La wa m m rk m H er o b sm un eth ith Cr slo Ke & oyd w ns Fu o in gt lh n on a & Ba m C rn he et ls Ea ea W B lin an ro g ds ml wo ey Ki ng En rth sto fie l n up H Bre d on ac nt Ri Thkn ch e m on Ne amey d up H wha s onave m T ri Gr hamng ee e Re nw s db ich r M idge er Ha ton rr Be ow x Su ley Ba W Har tto rk al Le ing n in th wi e g & am sh y D Fo am ag re en st ha m

0

2

Source: BRES, (ONS 2009 )

Unsurprisingly, the distribution of employees across the London boroughs follows a similar pattern to the distribution of enterprises. Westminster has the largest number of employees of any London borough, containing nearly 600,000 employees, representing 14.6% of the London total. Westminster has nearly twice the number of employees compared to the City of London, which is the second highest borough, and nearly three times the number of employees compared to Tower Hamlets, which is the fourth highest borough. Most of the London boroughs have employee populations of around 60,000 to around 100,000, illustrating the concentration of employees in Westminster. The general London distribution (Map 2) shows the concentration of workers in the central boroughs, with the eastern part of the city having the lowest concentration of employees. Other areas such as Croydon and Hillingdon have fairly significant amounts of employees, however Westminster clearly stands out as the employment centre of London.

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City of Westminster Economic Report LEA Baseline Study Map 2: Employee distribution by borough.

Source: IDBR, 2010

Total Employee Jobs: London and Westminster Figure 8: Total employee jobs, 1995‐2009, London and Westminster

London Employee Jobs

Westminster Employee Jobs

4,500,000 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0

620,000 600,000 580,000 560,000 540,000 520,000 500,000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

480,000 460,000

2

Source: ABI (ONS 1995‐2008), BRES (ONS 2009 ) August 2011

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Employee numbers in Westminster have started to fall slightly since 2008 after half a decade of gradual increase. A similar pattern is also shown more generally across London, which is to be expected as the number of enterprises is also falling, and is most likely a reflection of the recession period. The data shows that since 1995, the number of employees in Westminster has increased by 8% compared to 2% for London as a whole. Projected Growth in Employees: London and Westminster Table 1: Employment Projections, London and Westminster Area Name Westminster London

2011

2016

2021

2026

2031 % Change 2011-2031 624,000 646,000 674,000 696,000 720,000 15.4 4,797,000 4,953,000 5,114,000 5,280,000 5,452,000 13.7

Source: GLA Employee Projections, 2009

The GLA projections show that the number of employees in Westminster is likely to continue to grow rapidly for the next twenty years. During this time it is projected that nearly 100,000 additional employee jobs will be created in Westminster, representing an increase of over 15% on 2011 employee projections. This growth is more substantial than the overall figure for London, which while also growing considerably, is roughly 2% lower than the Westminster figure. London wide projections forecast the sectoral distribution of this growth to follow recent trends, with substantial growth occurring in Business Services, other service sectors, hotels and restaurants. Decline is expected in manufacturing and public administration amongst other sectors (GLA, 2009).

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Enterprises and Employees by Industry in Westminster Figure 9: Enterprises and Employees by Industry Sector Enterprises and Employees by Industry Sector

Enterprises (IDBR 2010) Employees (BRES 2009)

110,000 100,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

Industry Sector

Industry Sector Classifications (as above)

1‐ 2‐ 3‐ 4‐ 5‐ 6‐ 7‐ 8‐ 9‐

Professional, scientific, technical Property Information & communication Arts, entertainment, recreation Business admin and support Finance & insurance Construction Retail Accommodation & food services

10‐ Wholesale 11‐ Health 12‐ Production 13‐ Transport & Storage 14‐ Education 15‐ Motor Trades 16‐ Agriculture, forestry, fishery 17‐ Public admin & Defence

2

Source: IDBR 2010, BRES (ONS 2009 )

The breakdowns for both enterprises and employees show that the largest industry (using Standard Industrial Classification codes) in Westminster is Professional, Scientific and Technical, consisting of over 9000 enterprises employing over 100,000 people. The property industry is the only other sector with over 4000 enterprises, and there are seven further sectors with between 2000 and 4000 enterprises. The number of employees by sector does not always follow the trend of overall number of enterprises by sector. For example, retail is ranked eighth in terms of enterprise numbers with roughly 2500 enterprises, but has the third highest number of employees, with roughly 60,000 people employed in the sector. Similarly Public Administration and Defence has only 40 enterprises, but employs over 50,000 people, mostly in large government departments August 2011

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around Whitehall and Victoria, which illustrates Westminster’s position as the national centre of Government. Accommodation and Food Services is the second largest employee sector with roughly 70,000 employees reflecting Westminster’s considerable tourist, leisure and night time economy as shown through the considerable number of hotels, restaurants, bars and other entertainment uses in the City. Following on from Accommodation and Food Services there are five sectors employing between 40,000 and 60,000 people each. Enterprise Size in Westminster Figure 10: Westminster enterprises by size

Source: IDBR, 2010

Nearly 85% of Westminster’s VAT registered enterprises have fewer than 10 employees, compared to nearly 90% for London as a whole, showing that small businesses make up the vast majority of Westminster’s enterprises, however this is not a characteristic unique to Westminster. This is reflected in Westminster’s office stock, which is predominantly made up of small and medium sized units and developments fitting in with the historic environment. Due to the large number of multi national corporations, headquarters and large companies located in Westminster, there are nearly 750 enterprises with over 100 employees, nearly half of which have over 250 employees. These enterprises are likely to be located in areas such as Victoria and Paddington, where most of the larger office spaces and floor plates are located in Westminster. August 2011

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Employee Change by Sector 2001‐2008 in Westminster Figure 11 shows growth and decline for each broad economic sector, along with the overall size of each sector in terms of number of employees. The sectors showing the largest growth and decline are also the smallest sectors in terms of employee numbers, so the data for these sectors should be treated with some caution. The data for 2001‐2008 shows that a majority of industry sectors experienced growth in terms of the number of employees. Large growth has occurred in Education, Health and Social Work and Financial Intermediation amongst others. The construction sector, whilst being small has experienced the highest employee growth, showing its growing importance in Westminster, while reflecting the levels of development in the city in the early part of the 21st Century. The largest economic sectors in terms of employees, Retail, and Business Services (retail estate, business) have both experienced growth over the same period. The sectors that have experienced decline contain several of the smallest sectors, so any change is likely to be magnified, but it does show the continued decline of manufacturing, and fairly significant decline in the transportation, storage and communication sector. Figure 11: Industry sectors growth and decline 2001‐2008

Source: ABI 2001‐2008 August 2011

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Figure 12: Industry sectors growth and decline 2008‐2009

2

Source: ABI (ONS 2000‐2008), BRES (ONS 2009 )

More recent data showing change between 2008 and 2009 shows a very different picture as the recession has impacted on businesses in Westminster. A majority of sectors have experienced employee decline over this period, including several of the larger sectors. However, several major sectors such as Public Administration and Defence continued to grow in this period, and the largest employment sector, Professional, Scientific and Technical industries also increased slightly. Education and Real Estate also saw reasonable increases. However, the general picture is that a majority of economic sectors have experienced decreases in employee numbers of between 0% and 15%, including the Retail sector, Construction and Information and Communication, which have all been affected by the recession.

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Enterprise Distribution in Westminster Map 3: Enterprise density by Westminster postcode

Source: IDBR, 2010

This distribution map shows the density of enterprises by postcode, with each dot representing individual postcodes. The general distribution shows a concentration of enterprises in the CAZ, in the central wards of St James’s and the West End. This data includes both head offices and any subsidiaries as individual units, so there is no delineation in the data to identify head offices and no scope for double counting. Other areas of concentration are around the more commercial areas of Victoria, Knightsbridge, and around the designated shopping areas such as Queensway, Marylebone High Street and St John’s Wood High Street. August 2011

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In the more residential areas to the north and south of the borough, again the highest density of enterprises tends to be in the local shopping centres. This is also the case in the NWEDA, which is predominantly residential in focus, with enterprises concentrated around the Praed Street and Harrow Road/Church Street District Centres, and the other smaller local centres. Figure 13 reinforces the distribution shown on the map, with the two wards West End and St James’s dominating the number of enterprises. Marylebone High Street also contains a large number of enterprises, covering commercial areas north of Oxford Street including Baker Street and the Harley Street area, along with several other large local shopping centres. Beyond this, Bayswater contains over 1500 enterprises, many of which are around Westbourne Grove. The predominantly residential wards to the north and south of the borough have the fewest number of enterprises. Figure 13: Enterprises by Ward, 2010

Queen's Park

Tachbrook

Westbourne

Churchill

Maida Vale

Church

Harrow Road

Little Venice

Abbey Road

Bayswater

Vincent

Regent's Park

Lancaster

Warwick

Knightsbridge

Bryanston

Marylebone

West End

St James's

12000 11000 10000 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0

Hyde Park

Enterprises by Ward (IDBR, 2010)

Source: IDBR, 2010

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Employee Distribution in Westminster Figure 14: Employee distribution by Ward, 2009

WARD St James's West End Marylebone High Street Hyde Park Vincent Square Knightsbridge and Belgravia Bryanston and Dorset Square Warwick Regent's Park Lancaster Gate Church Street Little Venice Abbey Road Westbourne Bayswater Churchill Harrow Road Queen's Park Maida Vale Tachbrook

EMPLOYEES 190,132 179,784 55,606 27,853 27,116 25,913 23,016 20,382 9,170 6,807 5,005 3,781 3,451 3,291 3,271 3,228 1,834 1,797 1,597 1,356

2

Source: BRES (ONS, 2009 )

Data shows that employees are overwhelmingly located in the two large central wards of West End and St James’s, however both of these wards have lost employees, between 2008‐ 2009 (Figure 15). Following the trend shown in the enterprise distribution, Marylebone High Street has the third highest number of employees, followed by the other more central wards including Bryanston & Dorset Square and Hyde Park. Generally, the spatial trend shows that as you go out from the central wards of St James and West End, the number of employees decreases. Unsurprisingly the predominantly residential wards to the north and south of the borough have the smallest number of employees, such as Queens Park and Tachbrook. As these are the smallest wards in terms of employees, any changes in the data tend to look more exaggerated compared to wards with larger employee populations. For example in the second figure showing change between 2008 and 2009, the figure for Tachbrook showing a decrease of over 30% should be used with caution as the initial number of employees was very low to begin with. August 2011

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However, Figure 15 shows that the central wards of St James’s and West End have both lost employees between 2008‐2009, and only four of the twenty wards have experienced employee growth in this time. Encouragingly, this employee growth has occurred in two of the NWEDA wards of Harrow Road and Little Venice, where employee growth has added importance due to the economic and social issues affecting the area. Employee Change (%) by Westminster Ward 2008‐2009 Figure 15: Employee Change by Ward 2008‐2009 Tachbrook Bayswater Lancaster Gate Knightsbridge and Belgravia West End Westbourne Vincent Square Bryanston and Dorset Square Abbey Road Churchill Maida Vale Hyde Park Queen's Park Church Street St James's Marylebone High Street Regent's Park Harrow Road Little Venice Warwick

‐40.0

‐30.0

‐20.0

‐10.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

% 2

Source: BRES (ONS 2009 ), ABI (ONS 2008)

Resident Occupation Structure by Westminster Ward The occupation structure of the Wards (see Fig 17 below) gives a clear indication of the economic conditions that exist in different parts of the city. The trends below are broadly replicated in similar data for skills and qualifications, and the indices of multiple deprivation, house prices and other data. Please note that the data is based on the 2001 Census, and while it is very robust it is also out of date, and may not accurately reflect the current situation. The data below shows that the most deprived wards have the lowest proportions of managers and senior officials, and much larger proportions of occupations in areas such as August 2011

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skilled trades and elementary occupations. On the other hand the wards with lower levels of deprivation have a higher proportion of managerial and professional occupations, such as Knightsbridge and Belgravia. The wards with the highest number of employees, such as St James and West End have a mixed occupational structure, reflecting the range of jobs on offer in these areas, ranging from highly skilled managerial and professional jobs, to administrative business services, and the less skilled trades. This illustrates that these wards have a diverse economy providing opportunities for people with all levels of skill. Figure 16: Occupation Structure by Ward, 2001 Occupation Structure by Ward (Census 2001)

Queen's Park Churchill Church Street Westbourne Harrow Road Vincent Square Maida Vale St James's Tachbrook Lancaster Gate Marylebone High Street Bryanston & Dorset Sq Bayswater Little Venice Warwick Hyde Park West End Regent's Park Abbey Road Knightsbridge & Belgravia

M anagers and Senio r Officials % P ro fessio nal Occupatio ns % A sso ciate P ro fessio nal and Technical % A dministrative and Secretarial % Skilled Trades % P erso nal Service % Sales and Custo mer Service % P ro cess, P lant and M achine Operatives % Elementary Occupatio ns %

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Source: Census 2001

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Gross Value Added (GVA): Westminster GVA is a measure of the contribution to the economy of each individual producer, industry or sector in the United Kingdom. GVA is a measure of production in monetary value, which is then used to calculate GDP by taking into account taxes and subsidies on products. 2008 data (latest price data available to calculate GVA) shows that Westminster’s total GVA generation stands at £40 billion, representing 15% of London’s total GVA generation of £269 billion (Roger Tym & Partners, 2011 ‐ RTP). This is the highest proportion of any London borough, followed by the City of London which had a 2008 GVA of just over £31 billion (City of London, Oxford Economics, 2011), and is likely to experience similar trends to Westminster in the near future. The total UK GVA in 2008 totalled nearly £1.3 trillion. Of this, 21% originates from London as a whole, and Westminster alone contributes 3.1% of national GVA. This figure has steadily increased since 1998, when Westminster contributed 2.2% of national GVA. Historical data shows that GVA generation more than doubled between 1998 and 2008, rising from £17.8 billion in 1998 to the 2008 figure of £40 billion, representing a growth of 133% (RTP, 2011). Over this period, total GVA in Westminster expanded at a similar rate to London. Projections for 2008‐2011 are based on national accounts data and employment levels in Westminster. The projections in this time period show the effects of the recession after 2008, as GVA dips slightly, but returns to 2008 levels by 2010. Longer term projections are based on employment projections for Westminster coupled with two different growth scenarios, a high growth scenario using Oxford Economics’ assumption of a 3.2% annual growth rate to 2020, and a more conservative approach used by GLA Economics, using a 2.5% annual growth rate. By 2020, it is projected that Westminster’s GVA generation would rise to £54.7 billions under the Oxford Economics scenario, and by £51.8 billions under the GLA economics scenario, representing growths of 36% and 28.5% respectively. It is assumed that Westminster’s growth will be heavily reliant on the business services and finance sector, and that Westminster will continue to constitute around 15% of London’s total GVA (RTP, 2011).

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City of Westminster Economic Report LEA Baseline Study Figure 17: GVA in Westminster, past trends and future projections Westminster Total GVA (£m) 1998-2008 and projections (RTP, 2011) 60,000 55,000 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 -

Westminster total GVA

Growth based on GLA London Economic Outlook 2010-2012 Oxford Economics Growth rate post 2013 (3.2%)

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

GLA Economics Growth rate post 2013 (2.5%)

Source: Roger Tym & Partners, 2011

The structure of Westminster’s economy is further illustrated through the breakdown of GVA generation by Industrial Sector. Following patterns of enterprises and employees shown earlier, the Business Services sector is the largest generator of GVA, accounting for nearly 40% of the Westminster total. This is followed by Finance and Other Services, which together account for nearly 25% of Westminster’s total. Wholesale and retail remains an important contributor, while other sectors contribute between 2‐7% of Westminster’s total. Figure 18: Westminster GVA by Industry Sector Westminster GVA (2008), share split by Industry Sector (RTP 2011)

40.00% 35.00% 30.00% 25.00% 20.00% 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% Fishing

Electricity, gas and water supply Agriculture, hunting and forestry

Mining and quarrying

Construction

Health and social work

Education

Manufacturing

Transport & communication

Hotels and restaurants

Public admin and defence

Wholesale and retail

Other services

Finance

Business Services

0.00%


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GVA grew considerably between 1998 and 2008. The main drivers of this growth as shown in Table 2 were Business Services, which generated an additional £9 billion of GVA in that time period, followed by Finance at £4 billion, which also experienced the fastest growth rate over the same period. Significant growth also came from Wholesale and Retail, Hotels and Restaurants, and Public Administration and Defence, which follows broad changes in employment and enterprises over the same time (table 2). Negative growth has been reported in two economic sectors (Electricity, Gas and Water Supply, and Fishing), however these sectors employ very few people in Westminster, and therefore the significance of this decline is negligible. Table 2: Westminster GVA by Industry Sector Industry Sector Real estate, renting and business activities Financial intermediation Other services Wholesale and retail trade (including motor trade) Public administration and defence Hotels and restaurants Transport, storage and communication Manufacturing Education Health and social work Construction Mining and quarrying Electricity, gas and water supply Agriculture, hunting and forestry Fishing Total

% Westminster GVA (2008) 39.53% 14.46% 10.06% 9.44% 7.10% 5.06% 4.29% 3.25% 2.58% 2.43% 1.15% 0.42% 0.22% 0.02% 0.00% 100%

Change 1998‐ % Change 2008 (£m) 1998‐ 2008 9,246 138% 4,269 274% 2,030 100% 2,002 111% 1,591 125% 1,121 122% 595 52% 518 65% 726 232% 583 147% 271 142% 31 22% ‐9 ‐10% 3 80% ‐1 ‐67% 22,975 133%


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Business Rates: Westminster The combined rateable value of all rateable businesses in Westminster is nearly £4.3 billion. Businesses currently pay a poundage of 41.4p in the pound (i.e. 41.4p per pound of rateable value in 2010). Along with small business rate relief and other allowances, the total business rates paid by Westminster businesses are about £1.4 billion. Each non domestic property has a rateable value set by the Valuation Office Agency (VOA), which broadly represents the yearly rent the property could have been let for on the open market on a particular date. The rateable value can be appealed against, and multipliers applied to the rate vary based on the nature of the business being rated. Small businesses are given a certain amount of rates relief, while larger businesses pay a standard larger amount to pay for the small business relief. Rates multipliers vary each year based on inflation, and the standard rate is reviewed every five years to reflect current conditions. Table 3: Business Rates (rateable value) by Industry Sector in Westminster, 2010 Sector

Number of

COMMERCIAL

Businesses 31979

Rateable Value

Avg Rate per

% rateable

rateable

value by

(£) 3,963,439,288

business 123,939

sector 92.84%

Rateable

OFFICES

17,580

£

2,644,047,047

150,401

61.93%

SHOPS, BANKS, POST OFFICES ETC.

6,768

£

748,630,035

110,613

17.54%

HOTELS, BOARDING HOUSES ETC.

443

£

251,913,400

568,653

5.90%

RESTAURANTS, CAFES ETC.

1,492

£

168,999,700

113,271

3.96%

LICENSED PROPERTIES

621

£

62,765,775

101,072

1.47%

CAR PARKS AND PARKING SPACES

3,461

£

38,507,765

11,126

0.90%

OTHER COMMERCIAL

246

£

22,405,420

91,079

0.52%

WAREHOUSES, STORES ETC.

918

£

12,495,591

13,612

0.29%

PETROL FILLING STATIONS, GARAGES ETC.

243

£

6,792,650

27,953

0.16%

ADVERTISING RIGHTS AND STATIONS

203

£

6,218,655

30,634

0.15%

MARKETS

4

£

663,250

165,813

0.02%

MISCELLANEOUS TREASURY (CROWN) EDUCATIONAL TRAINING AND CULTURAL LEISURE INDUSTRIAL NON FORMULA ASSESSED UTILITIES TOTAL

1811 26 243 234 285 27 34,605

91,300,041 82,499,750 64,675,950 59,634,750 6,409,250 1,153,751 4,269,112,780

50,414 3,173,067 266,156 254,849 22,489 42,732 3,933,646

2.14% 1.93% 1.51% 1.40% 0.15% 0.03% 100%

Source: Westminster City Council, 2010

Of the total rateable value, nearly 93% of rates originated from the commercial sector, representing nearly £4 billion. Within the commercial sector, Offices have by far the largest rateable value, with the 17,580 rateable units totalling over £2.6 billion, representing 62% of Westminster’s total. Beyond this, the nearly 7000 shops and banks in Westminster total nearly £750 million in rateable value, representing over 17% of the total. Hotels have the next biggest rating, at over

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35


£250 million (6%), followed by restaurants and café’s at £170 million (4%), and licensed properties at £63 million (1.5%). Westminster is the centre of national government and the monarchy, and the significance of the public sector as an employer and occupier in the form of the Central Government departments around Whitehall and Victoria is illustrated in the Treasury (Crown) category, which are rated at over £82 million (over 2% of all rates). In addition, some government buildings are categorised in the miscellaneous category, meaning the total rateable value of government property exceeds £100 million. This rates paying structure gives clear illustrations as to the overall size of Westminster’s economy and its importance to London and the country as a whole, as these significant rates are redistributed across the country. Note, the data does not include certain parts of the economy which are not charged rates, including charities and other exempt sectors. Table 4: Top 20 Organisations/Businesses by Rateable Value (£) HOME OFFICE SELFRIDGES RETAIL LTD MINISTRY OF DEFENCE CENTRAL GOVERNMENT PARLIAMENTARY ESTATE DIRECTORATE PRICEWATERHOUSECOOPERS METROPOLITIAN POLICE AUTHORITY JOHN LEWIS PLC H.M. TREASURY DEPT FOR BUSINESS, ENTERPRISE BNP PARIBAS LONDON DEPT FOR COMMUNITIES & LOCAL GVMT BP INTERNATIONAL LIMITED MARKS AND SPENCERS PLC DEPARTMENT FOR TRANSPORT HSBC PRIVATE BANK (UK) LTD BDO LLP DEPARTMENT FOR EDUCATION D E F R A DEBENHAMS RETAIL PLC

Rateable Value (£) 24,960,000 20,560,000 18,900,000 17,350,000 14,700,000 14,370,000 14,180,000 12,950,000 12,870,000 12,280,000 11,810,000 11,380,000 10,740,000 9,840,000 9,250,000 9,170,000 8,710,000 8,560,000 8,420,000 8,380,000

Address Marsham Street Oxford Street Whitehall Thames House Portculis House Embankment Place New Scotland Yard Oxford Street Horseguards Road Victoria Street Marylebone Gate Bressenden Place St James's Square North Wharf Road Marsham Street St James's Street Baker Street Great Smith Street Millbank Oxford Street

Source: City of Westminster, 2011

The table above illustrates the presence of central government departments in some of the largest offices in prime Westminster locations, along with the largest retail department stores such as Selfridges and John Lewis, and some of the offices of large multinational corporations such as PWC and HSBC.

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Insight: Global 500 Company HQ’s in Westminster (CNN, 2010) Table 5: Global 500 Company HQ’s Global 500 Rank 4 173 226 238 384 387 421

Company Name

Address

Postcode

BP Rio Tinto Group Astra Zeneca BAE Systems National Grid British American Tobacco Anglo American

1 St James Square 2 Eastbourne Terrace 15 Stanhope Gate 6 Carlton Gardens 1-3 Strand 4 Temple Place 20 Carlton House Terrace

SW1Y 4PD W2 6LG W1K 1LN SW1Y 5AD WC2N 5EH WC2R 2PG SW1Y 5AN

Revenue ($ Million) 246,138 41,825 32,804 31,773 22,331 22,157 20,858

Source: CNN.com, 2010





Westminster contains the headquarters of seven of the Global 500 companies as reported by CNN, a majority of which are located in the USA and Japan (with New York and Tokyo as major locations). In context, Britain has 29 Global 500 headquarters, meaning that nearly a quarter of these are located in Westminster.



8 are located in the City of London (Lloyds Banking Group, Aviva, Prudential and Legal & General, Old Mutual, BT, J Sainsbury, Standard Chartered).

“Focus On” Sections: What follows are closer examinations of certain economic sectors in Westminster. This includes sectors that are the main drivers of Westminster’s economy, or are unique to Westminster, or where Westminster is a world leader, including Retail, the Knowledge Economy, Tourism and the Night Time Economy, The Green Economy, Business Services and Financial Intermediation, and Creative Industries.

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Focus on: Retail Retail Geography Retail is one of the economic sectors that reflect the nature of Westminster as a city operating at all scales from global down to local. The hierarchy of designated shopping centres reflects this variety of scales, with the world renowned International shopping frontages of Oxford Street, Regent Street, Bond Street and Knightsbridge acting as a destination for residents of Westminster, local workers, and visitors and tourists from other parts of London, the south east and from around the world. These international shopping streets sit at the heart of the fashion capital that is London, offering a wide variety of international and designer brands, and national chain retailers. Map 4: Westminster’s shopping centres

Source: City of Westminster 2011

The Central Activities Zone contains a number of shopping centres (CAZ centres), each with their own character and range of retail, including the High Street feel of Victoria Street, the independent and dynamic retail hubs of Soho and Covent Garden, various street markets, and numerous other distinct centres such as Piccadilly and the Strand. August 2011

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Beyond the CAZ are district centres which act as hubs for retail and commercial activity outside of the main central area. Again, each of these centres have distinctive characters and serve primarily the local community. These centres tend to include independent retailers and food and drink outlets alongside fewer chain retailers. Examples include the St John’s Wood High Street centre serving the north east of the borough, Praed Street serving the Paddington area, and Warwick Way/Tachbrook Street serving the south. The importance of these centres to local residents and traders cannot be underestimated. At a more micro scale are the 40 Local Shopping Centres, which are invaluable to local residents, providing convenience shopping and other services within walking distance of people’s homes. Again, these centres vary considerably in terms of character and size, with some containing up to 100 units, and others containing barely 10, however each serves a vital purpose for the communities in which they sit. The Health of Retail in Westminster The total number of retail employees and retail enterprises fell between 2008 and 2009 which was the most difficult period of the recent economic downturn, and the ongoing effect of the recession is likely to hit the Retail sector considerably. In terms of footfall in the ORB (Oxford Street, Regent Street, Bond Street) area, there is a definite seasonal trend in the footfall data, with peaks around Christmas, sale periods and other holiday times. The general trend for year on year data has been a decrease on footfall in the ORB streets. The picture is similar for the West End as a whole, with seasonal peaks and troughs, and a year on year decrease since 2007. Footfall in December 2010 was significantly lower than the previous year, as many factors outside of the recession such as increased competition from Westfields, very heavy snow falls and other issues took effect. Figure 19: Shopper pedestrian counts in the West End and ORB streets

Source: New West End Company 2007‐2010 August 2011

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However, while footfall is decreasing, sales are increasing in the West End, and at a much higher rate than national averages. A month on month comparison for 2010 data to sales in the same month for 2009 shows increases in most months for Westminster, with an overall 2010 figure of nearly 8% for sales increases. Figure 20: West End and National Sales monthly change, 2009‐2010 Change in sales betw een 2009 and 2010 by m onth (NWEC) Y r t o d at e 15. 00%

D ec

Jan 10. 00%

Nov

F eb 5. 00%

West End

0. 00%

O ct

M ar -5. 00%

Sep t

National

Apr

A ug

M ay Jul

Jun

Source: NWEC Data, 2011

West End Current Findings and Issues Shopper insight has been gauged through a 2006 research report by NWEC covering a range of topics. A SWOT analysis summarises these findings below. Strengths Weaknesses 91% tourists find West End to be dynamic/stimulating. 80% shoppers say retails continues to improve. People make increasing number of return visits. Ease of getting to West End. Good access to food and drink. Range and diversity of retail. High Quality Department Stores. Increasing tourism spend, retailer demand, rental values.

Opportunities Weak sterling has encouraged increased spend and visits from abroad. Legible London and area based schemes to improve environmental quality. 2012 Olympics

August 2011

Overcrowding: 63% complain about pavement crowding and behaviour. Area tends to appeal to a certain demographic. Few spots for rest and relaxation. Poor physical environment in some areas. Lack of toilets and seating areas.

Threats Out of town shopping centres with car access. Future major developments e.g. Westfield Stratford. Increased congestion and deteriorating environment. Street clutter. Poor service on public transport. Crime and antisocial behaviour. Loss of uniqueness as one‐off stores expand to other locations (e.g. Apple).

40


Focus on: The Knowledge Economy: Higher Education The broad definition of what constitutes the knowledge economy covers a wide range of economic areas, describing trends in advanced economies towards greater dependence on knowledge, information and high skill levels, and the increasing need for access to these by businesses and the public sector. It encompases skilled professions in both the private and public sector such as financial services, business services, cultural services, high tech industries, education and health and social work. It is estimated that nearly 55% of all jobs in Westminster fall under this broad definition of the knowledge economy. However, this section will focus on the importance of higher education to Westminster’s current and future workforce and economy. Higher education employs over 20,000 people in Westminster (Higher Education Statistical Agency, 2011), this category includes universities, language schools, arts related colleges and some other higher education uses. Universities Westminster is home to the main campuses of three of the best universities in the world: Imperial College London, Kings College London, and the London School of Economic and Political Science (LSE) along with buildings or departments from other major universities. The borough is also home to the Royal Academy of Music, the Courtauld Institute and the London Business School, all of which are part of the University of London. In addition, Westminster is home to the University of Westminster, the University of the Arts, Regent’s College, and the London campuses of several American Universities. However, the longer term picture for the health of higher education is uncertain, as migration caps are a likely threat to future growth, along with raising tuition fees, which may deter future students and limit the influence of foreign students in Westminster. Insight: Global 100 Top Universities  Westminster contains three of the world’s top 100 universities, all of which have a reputation of excellence for research, teaching, facilities, student entrance standards, experience and employment prospects, among other attributes. The three are major employers in Westminster, while also owning land, buildings and facilities in the City. Global Rank University Name Address 7 Imperial College London Exhibition Road 21 Kings College London Strand 80 London School of Economics and Political Science Aldwych Source: QS Global University Rankings, 2010 August 2011

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Universities Employment In total, all universities in Westminster employ nearly 20,000 people in their campuses. Student numbers in Westminster are hard to estimate due to universities having multiple campuses, but the figure lies in the region of 75,000‐100,000 university students, who contribute to the city’s economy (Higher Education Statistics Agency, 2011). Key employers are below (IDBR, 2010). Figure 21: Universities Employment

Source: Higher Education Statistics Agency, 2011

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Focus on: Tourism & Night Time Economy Westminster is a national and global centre for tourism and the night time economy. Considerable numbers of people are employed in these industries, with a vast number of enterprises catering for visitors and entertainment, such as hotels and restaurants, tourist attractions, galleries and other enterprises. The tourist and night time economies generate significant business rates, and tourist expenditure contributes very significantly to the Westminster economy. Analysis has shown that Westminster is ranked 26th out of the 50 most visitor dependent English local authorities, based on 2006 data (Deloitte, 2008), with tourism related industry representing around 14% of the total economy. LDA data shows that Westminster is by far the most visited London borough, with over 55 million trips per year. Of this 55 million, 84% of the trips were day trips, 10% were overseas trips, and 6% were domestic staying trips. Total visits to Westminster in 2007 represented over a quarter of all trips made to London, and Westminster had nearly four times the number of trips compared to the second most visited borough, Kensington & Chelsea. Figure 22: Total trips by borough, 2007

Total Trips (Thousands) by borough 2007 (LDA) 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000

-

Westminster, Kensington Camden Southwark Hammersmith Barnet Lambeth Tower Ealing City of Croydon Hillingdon Wandsworth Bromley Islington Merton KingstonHounslow Havering Enfield Greenwich Brent RichmondNewham Haringey Bexley Redbridge Harrow Waltham Sutton Hackney Lewisham Barking and

10,000

Source: LDA, 2007

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Tourism Expenditure Tourism expenditure in Westminster totalled £6.8 billion in 2007, which represents 30% of all London tourism spend (Figure 23). £3 billions came from overseas visitors, with slightly more from day visitors. Domestic visitors contribute the smallest share, at around £0.8 billion. Trend data shows that overseas tourism expenditure has increased steadily from 2004, increasingly roughly by 30% in that time (LDA, 2009). Figure 23: Tourism expenditure 2007 Tourism Spend 2007 (£ millions) (LDA, 2009)

Westminster Rest of London

10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Overseas visitors (£ Domestic visitors (£ millions) millions)

Day visitors (£ millions)

Source: LDA 2009

Insight: Top London Visitor Attractions (Visit England, 2009) Westminster has five of the top twenty paid attractions in London (2 of the UK top 20), attracting over three million visitors in total (2009). In addition, Westminster has six of the top twenty unpaid attractions (5 of the UK top 20), which attracted nearly ten million visitors in 2009. Attraction

Rank PAID ATTRACTIONS

W es tmi ns ter Abbey ZSL London Zoo Churchi l l Mus eum & Ca bi net W ar Rooms Courta ul d Ins ti tute Ga l l ery Hous ehol d Ca val ry Mus eum FREE ATTRACTIONS Nati ona l Gal l ery Nati ona l Portra i t Ga l l ery Tate Bri tai n Hous es of Pa rl i ament Publ i c Ga l l eri es Serpenti ne Ga l l ery RSA

Visitors 2009 3 5 7 10 15

1,449,593 1,059,170 314,162 150,773 64,500

2 7 8 10 12 20

4,780,030 1,961,843 1,501,837 963,362 697,674 88,023

N.B. The top paid attraction in London, 2009 was the Tower of London (2,389,548 visitors), and the top free attraction was the British Museum (5,569,981 visitors).

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The Night Time Economy The night time economy is a unique and important component of Westminster’s economy. The West End is an internationally renowned entertainment district, containing thousands of food and drink and entertainment uses such as bars, nightclubs, theatres, cinemas, and casinos, all of which are themselves a destination for visitors and tourists. This economy generates a substantial amount of money, while providing a significant proportion of Westminster’s jobs. The West End is the focus of the night time economy, with Soho being the centre, containing a large number of restaurants, bars, nightclubs and other uses, many with late licenses. Adjacent to Soho is Chinatown, which contains numerous restaurants, and Leicester Square which is a tourist focus point, containing landmark cinemas, theatres, casinos, nightclubs and other entertainment uses. To the east of Leicester Square is Covent Garden, which again is a heavily visited area by tourists, and also contains a high volume of entertainment uses. Westminster contains by far the largest night time economy concentration in the UK, followed by Birmingham, Manchester and Camden (Nightmix, 2010). Westminster also has the largest night time economy in terms of turnover, generating nearly £3 billion in 2009, coming from nearly 3800 firms employing nearly 56,000 people (Nightmix, 2010). Insight: Theatres (Society of London Theatres, 2010) Westminster’s Theatreland district in the West End is a world renowned theatre destination, rivalling Broadway in New York, attracting world famous actors, actresses and directors in a range of plays, musicals, opera’s and dance productions.  Westminster’s Theatreland is home to 30 of the 40 commercial theatres in London’s West End.  Venues are concentrated in Covent Garden, Shaftesbury Avenue, and St Martin’s Lane.  London total box office for 2010: £512 million.  London total attendances for 2010: 14.1 million.

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Focus on: The Green Economy The Green and Low Carbon economy is a growing and increasingly important economic sector. In London, the Mayor has set carbon reduction targets up to 2025 and the low carbon economy is seen to be one with potential for substantial growth, providing considerable numbers of jobs in the process. The London environmental goods and services market is estimated to create an overall turnover of £22 billion (LDA, 20092). It is hard to estimate local employment in the green sector, as an agreed definition of what the sector includes does not exist, and industrial classification codes (SIC codes) do not currently reflect the extent of the sector or workforce size. LDA data below gives an indication of current employment and turnover levels for the sector in Westminster, showing that the sector employs over 15,000 people across over 900 companies, generating over £265 in turnover (LDA, 20092). These levels are fairly consistent with other boroughs across London. Table 6: Westminster’s Low Carbon Economy Sector

Sub Sector

Environmental Sub Sectors

Consultancy & Education Recovery & Recycling Waste Management Additional Energy Sources Alternative Fuels Building Technologies Energy Management Biomass Geothermal Hydro Photovoltaic Renewable Consulting Wave & Tidal Wind Technologies, R&D

Low Carbon Sub Sectors

Renewables Sub Sector

Other Total

2008/9 Number of Estimated Turnover (£m) Companies Jobs 3.4 0 117 52.7 49 810 4.2 43 842 3.7 7 124 19.8 207 3382 20 133 2101 16.3 38 610 23.7 73 1323 25.5 184 2738 11.9 0 60 25.2 63 1304 2.6 6 116 33.7 0 0 19.4 109 1346 3.7 13 281 265.8 925 15154

Source: LDA 20092

The data shows that the largest turnover comes from Recovery and Recycling, while the Alternative Fuels sub sector has the largest number of companies and the largest number of employees. An identified issue with the Low Carbon economy is a skills gap, in what looks to be a highly skilled technical sector, to match skills to the expected growth in the sector. However, London is in a strong position to meet this demand, with a good flow of graduates each year with relevant degrees. This includes courses from universities within Westminster such as August 2011

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environmental and engineering courses at Kings College, and architecture at the University of Westminster (LDA, 20092). In addition to further education courses, many secondary school level education courses are on offer, for example at the City of Westminster College which offers 16 such courses covering topics such as energy management and supply sources, building technology, renewable energy and waste and recycling, most of which are NVQ level 4 courses (LDA, 20092). Sustainability in Planning The Low Carbon and Environmental Economy is becoming increasingly important within planning. The monitoring of planning applications has shown the number of sustainability related conditions in planning applications is at a high level, with 790 such conditions included as part of planning permissions in 2009‐10. These criteria include all aspects of environmental planning such as biodiversity promotion, waste and recycling, renewable energy generation, pollution mitigation and sustainable construction. In addition to these planning conditions, Westminster has additional programmes such as the sustainable retrofitting of historic buildings, which will further stimulate the environmental economy in Westminster. These few examples illustrate how the sector is growing, and areas of potential enterprise and employment growth.

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Focus on: Business Services & Financial Intermediation Financial and business services have been the main driver for economic growth in the UK and Westminster in recent times. In London, the broad sector provides over 1.1m jobs (ABI, 2008), generating 30% of the capital’s GVA. The value of financial and business services has already been illustrated in both the business rates section, and more prominently in the GVA section, where these are recorded as the two sectors generating the most GVA, while also having experienced the most substantial growth over the last ten years, therefore driving Westminster’s overall economic growth. It is also projected that future performance is heavily dependent on these two sectors (RTP, 2011). Key Statistics: Financial Sector and Business Services  Offce sector has a total rateable value of £2.64bn (62% of all Westminster rateable value). A vast majority of this is made up of business services and finance. Business Services  40% of Westminster’s GVA, sector GVA grew by 138% between 1998‐ 2008.  Roughly half of all enterprises in Westminster are business services. Financial Intermediation  15% of Westminster’s GVA, sector GVA grew by 274% between 1998‐ 2008.  Roughly 3000 financial enterprises in Westminster. The importance of the business services goes beyond these statistics. As mentioned, these services operate at all scales, from multinational HQ’s operating global business, down to small independent local businesses across Westminster. The sector itself encompasses a very broad range of activities, offering a wide range of occupations. Different parts of the sector include estate agents, lawyers, accountancy, scientific work and job recruitment services. The diversity of the sector therefore means that the range of occupations on offer is substantial, and more open to all parts of the workforce, from relatively unskilled occupations to very highly skilled professions. This often occurs within the same organisation, which may require security work, catering, postal and administrative services, skilled professionals, managers and other types of occupation.

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Focus on: Creative Industries Creative Industries are an important driver of Westminster’s economy, and Westminster is at the heart of the national creative industries sector, with 8% of all UK creative industries jobs located in Westminster (BOP, 2011). Westminster has the highest absolute number of creative industries employees of any London borough, with nearly 90,000 in total, twice the number of Camden, which is the second highest (BOP, 2011). Around 14% of Westminster’s work force is employed in creative industries, which is the third highest percentage of all London boroughs, behind Hammersmith & Fulham and Camden (BOP,2011). In addition, estimated growth in creative industries employment was faster in Westminster than London and GB overall between 1999 and 2009, with a 29% growth in Westminster compared to 20% in London and 22% for GB (BOP, 2010). ABI data from 2006 shows that the creative industries sector contributed 11% of all business turnover (£). As shown below, heavy concentrations are in Soho, the West End, St James’s and Mayfair, which combined have the highest concentration of creative industries enterprises in the UK. Key attractions include the centrality and connectivity available, due to the need for frequent face to face meetings and quick response, in addition to the need for access to specialist skills and associated markets and supply chains. Map 5: Creative Industries Employees in Westminster

Source: GVA Grimley, 2007 August 2011

49


In addition to these areas, other key locations for creative industries include Great Western studios. This offers flexible space at more affordable rents, as one of the key issues identified by the sector has been the high rent in key locations in the centre. Key sectors where Westminster is a creative industries world leader include Film and Post Production activities, Fashion, Television, Advertising and New Media, operating at all scales from multinational companies such as the BBC, down to independent niche operators. Savile Row offers a world renowned specialist creative industry in terms of tailoring and fashion. Key Statistics: Creative Industries  89,751 people employed in creative industries (BOP, 2011), more than any other London Borough.  Biggest sectors are Radio & TV (19,160 employees), Software, Computer games, Electronic Publishing (over 15,000 employees), Video, Film & Photography (15,250 employees).

 



Nearly 5000 creative industries enterprises (IDBR, 2010). Biggest sectors for enterprises are arts & antiques (nearly 1000 enterprises), video, film, photography (over 700 enterprises). Recession affected creative industries, which is very responsive to economic cycles: 6% drop in employement in Westminster creative industries in 2009 (BOP, 2011).

Figure 24: Employees by Creative Industries Sub‐Sector

Source: BRES, 2009

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City of Westminster Economic Report LEA Baseline Study Figure 25: Enterprises by Creative Industries sub sector

Radio &TV

Fashion

Designer

(print)

Publishing

Advertising

Games,

Software,

Computer

Architecture

Visual

Music and

Video, Film,

Photography

Art &

Antiques

1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0

Performing

Enterprises by Creative Industries Sector (IDBR, 2010)

Source: IDBR, 2010

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City of Westminster Economic Report LEA Baseline Study Focus on: Charities/The Voluntary and Community Sector

Westminster is the home to many registered charities, and other voluntary and community sector organizations. These bodies vary from high profile multinational and national charities, to very small local community groups which do not have charitable status. The size of the sector makes it a valuable employer in the borough in terms of paid employment and voluntary work. Key Statistics  1200 voluntary and community sector bodies (782 are local).  Of the 1200, 610 organisations are registered charities.  24,000 people give their time as volunteers.  8,000 full time staff employed by voluntary and community sector.  2,500 part time staff employed by voluntary and community sector. Registered Charities The charities commission records 610 registered charities in Westminster, which have a combined annual income of nearly £750 million, and outgoings of over £700 million. A short summary of the makeup of the registered charities sector is below. This data is available from the Charities Commission website, however the categorisation was undertaken independently by the author of this document, through reading the description of the charities activities on the website, and therefore does not reflect analysis undertaken by the Charities Commission. Table 7: Registered Charities in Westminster, 2011

Source: Charities Commission Data, 2011 N.B. Financial data is based on charities’ most recent financial year accounts.

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2 ‐ Population and Workforce

         

Key Statistics 253,000 residents, 24% higher than the population in 2001. Second highest local authority projected percentage growth in population between 2008 and 2018. Increasing household sizes. Unique population structure (high levels of people aged 25‐40). Very diverse communities – 54% residents born outside UK. High levels of skills and qualifications, but some parts of the city have very low levels of skills and qualifications. Low JSA claimants. High levels of deprivation in some parts of the city. Daytime population of around 1 million people, with high night time population. Over 50% of residents work in Westminster.

Chapter 2 Summary Westminster’s population is amongst the most dynamic in the UK. People are drawn to Westminster because of the unique business, social and cultural opportunities which this City in the heart of London presents. This is shown in the high population growth rate over the last ten years, and the future projections for continued growth. In addition to a dynamic resident population, Westminster’s daytime population swells to around one million people due to the influx of workers and visitors, which underpins the economy in the city, while presenting substantial challenges for city management and other areas. Resident churn is very high, as many individual’s movements are driven by fluctuating economic opportunities (especially those living in the large private rented sector). Yet, affordability issues within the borough (the second most expensive in the UK), mean that many families on low incomes are unable to aspire to home ownership, and can live in the city only through the availability of social housing and housing benefits. Legislative changes in effect from 2012 which would limit the amount of housing benefit that could be claimed by households are likely to see low‐income households in private rented accommodation leave to find cheaper housing options outside Central London. This means that the City is an exceptionally divergent mix of the very highly skilled and unskilled people, with levels of huge prosperity and poverty living in close proximity.

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Chapter 2: Population and Workforce, SWOT Analysis Strengths  Very large daytime population/ workforce.  Highly skilled workforce and residents.  Dynamic, young resident population.  Attractive location for migrants.  Population churn responds to business need.  Significant student population and presence of top class higher education.

Weaknesses  Balance of residents needs against daytime population.  Impact of daytime population on council services.  Skills gap with some parts of the resident population.  Reliance on a commuter workforce.  Effect of benefits reforms on resident population, ability to live in Westminster: housing, disability etc.  Areas of deprivation.  Cost of living inflation for residents through tourists and workers able to pay higher prices.

Opportunities  Employment opportunities and options for residents.  Range of employment for all levels of qualifications.  Opportunities for companies to partake in social investment e.g. mentoring, work experience, investment in communities etc.

Threats  Barriers to future growth: deprivation in some parts of the city, skills gaps etc.  Informal economies, attracting illegal and unqualified workers.  Local government funding and potential service cuts and further undermining affordability for residents.  Headline figures on wealth and education can mask pockets of deprivation.  Occupational health and sick days linked to incapacity benefit changes.

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This chapter describes the resident population of Westminster, examining reasons for recent changes and likely changes over the next 25 years. It also considers how the skills and diversity of the population contribute to economic strength, and the residents of Westminster who have not benefitted from economic opportunities on offer. Resident Population – Historical Growth

Westminster has experienced significant population growth and diversification over the past 10 years, experiencing some of the highest rates of international migration in the UK. Mid Year Estimates (MYE)’s up to 2010 indicate that the population in Westminster has grown each year since the 2001 census. The current population MYE (2010) is 253,100, which is 50,000 or 24% higher than the population in 2001 (Figure 26). The rate of growth however has eased since 2005. The mid‐part of the decade saw a spike in migration due to the accession of Eastern European countries to the EU in 2004. At the end of the decade growth in the City became increasingly driven by higher net natural change than net migration, with births of children to foreign‐born mothers accounting for over 70% of all births in the City. This growth has taken place against the backdrop of increases in housing stock, but there also appears to be a growth in household sizes. Flexible household arrangements with non‐family members sharing dwellings are increasingly common as groups of workers maintain and expand their presence in the City by mitigating against high housing costs by sharing rents. Figure 26: Mid Year Population Estimates for Westminster, 2001‐2010 Population MYEs (2001‐2010) 260,000

250,000

240,000

230,000

220,000

210,000

200,000 2001 Mid Year Estimates

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

203,329 210,715 216,437 222,910 234,162 240,113 243,665 246,614 249,430 253,113

Source: ONS, 2011 August 2011

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Reasons for Growth ‐ Migration Population growth has been driven by both net migration gains and natural change (births minus deaths). In the early part of the decade most of the City’s population growth was due to high international migration. In one single year for example (between 2004 and 2005) almost 9,000 people were added to the population (Figure 27). Figure 27: International Migration to Westminster Migration (International) (2001‐2010) 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 In

2001‐2

2002‐3

2003‐4

2004‐5

2005‐6

2006‐7

2007‐8

2008‐9

2009‐10

9,771

10,879

12,603

14,467

11,680

11,844

10,881

10,000

10,541

Out

6,109

6,994

4,986

5,730

6,668

8,745

7,469

8,150

9,131

Net

3,662

3,885

7,617

8,737

5,012

3,099

3,412

1,840

1,410

3

Source: Components of change, (ONS, 2010 )

International migration to Westminster has historically been high and remains so even when the national economy slows down. This is not only because the City offers business and economic opportunities (even in times of recession), and also other factors such as established minority communities and a rich cultural life‐style. It is the unique combination of these multiple factors which combined, make the profile of in‐ migrants entirely different to any other Local Authority in the UK. Figure 28 shows the countries of origin of in‐migrant workers to Westminster between 2002‐2010, Compared to the UK as a whole Westminster is far more likely to attract workers from Oceania, North America and Western Europe. The City is also home to a significant Middle Eastern community with highly developed local businesses that cater largely for expatriate populations. Migration from some countries such as Lebanon, Egypt, and the Philippines is almost entirely directed to Central London, (Westminster or Kensington and Chelsea), and the impacts of

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global events such as political instability and conflict can significantly influence the numbers and types of residents further drawn into these communities. Figure 28: Migrant Workers by Country of Origin

Source: National Insurance Registrations, DWP 2010

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Resident Population – Future Growth Population projections are produced at the sub‐national level by ONS (Office for National Statistics) every two years. The most recent set of data was published in 2010 and takes the Mid Year Estimate 2008 as the base. Projection data from the ONS makes presumptions that future trends can be predicted by past behaviours, and although it works well for local authorities where natural change is the greatest component of change, it has not proved a good guide to migration flows in Westminster. This is simply because Westminster’s demographics are influenced by forces which are extremely difficult to model. Figure 29 shows that already the actual MYE’s and projected population have begun to deviate in Westminster. According to these figures Westminster’s population is projected to increase from the 2008 base of 246,600 every year until 2033 (the last year of the model). The population is projected to increase by 14% (or 34,000) to 281,000 by 2015, and by 21% (or 52,000) to 298,000 by 2020. Figure 29: Projected Population Growth in Westminster 2008‐2033

Projected Population Growth in Westminster 2008‐2033 340 320

2008 Projections Actual MYE's

(000's)

300 280 260 240 220 6 8 2 0 4 4 6 8 2 0 6 8 4 0 2 200 200 200 201 201 201 201 201 202 202 202 202 202 203 203

Source: ONS, 2008

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Westminster’s projected growth is estimated to be mainly due to net migration over the next few years, but this diminishes every year in the ONS model and by 2020 around 90% will be driven by natural change (births minus deaths). In fact Westminster’s growth over the next few years is about 40% attributable to more births than deaths, and 60% attributable to more people migrating into Westminster than out. Significant growth is expected in children’s (additional 7000, 22%), adults (additional 40,000, 22%) and older people (additional 5000, 17%) age groups by 2020. The amount of growth in the working age population is shown in Figure 30. Within this overall data, growth is projected to be extremely variable within different age groups in the working age population. The numbers of young people in their late teens and twenties (who make up 30% of the current population) increases but at a fairly slow rate – whilst there is a significant rise in people in their late forties and fifties. The numbers of people approaching retirement age (60‐64) is the lowest growth area of all, probably reflecting the historical movement seen by people out of London upon retiring. Were these projections to materialise it would mean that the propensity of people to move out of Westminster had shifted to a later age than experienced in the recent past. Figure 30: Projected Growth in the working‐age population, 2009 onwards

Source: ONS, 2008

Westminster’s percentage growth until 2018 is the second highest amongst England local authorities with only Colchester’s rate being higher (Table 8). August 2011

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City of Westminster Economic Report LEA Baseline Study Table 8: 2008 SNPP, ONS Population Projection briefing 2010

Source: ONS, 2010

Westminster is projected to receive around 16,000 people from abroad each year with 10,000 leaving. Loss of population to the rest of the UK is projected to increase from around 3,000 people over the next few years to 6,000 in the later stages of the model – at which point net negative internal migration and net positive international migration will balance each other out (Figure 31). Figure 31: Reasons for population growth in Westminster Projected Change Components in Westminster ‐ (000's) ‐ (2008‐2033) 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 ‐2.0 ‐4.0 ‐6.0 ‐8.0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033

Total Change

5.3

5.7

5.3

5.0

4.6

4.4

4.0

3.9

3.6

3.5

3.3

3.1

2.9

2.9

2.7

2.7

2.6

2.7

2.6

2.5

2.5

2.4

2.3

2.3

2.3

Net Internal Migration

-2.3

-2.6

-3.1

-3.3

-3.6

-3.9

-4.1 -4.4

-4.6

-4.9

-5.1

-5.3

-5.5

-5.6

-5.7

-5.8

-5.9

-5.9

-5.8

-6.0

-6.0

-6.1

-6.1

-6.1

-6.1

Net International Migration

5.3

6.1

6.0

5.9

6.0

5.9

5.7

5.7

5.7

5.7

5.7

5.7

5.7

5.7

5.7

5.7

5.7

5.7

5.7

5.7

5.7

5.7

5.7

5.7

5.7

Net Natural Change

2.1

2.1

2.2

2.2

2.2

2.3

2.3

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.5

2.5

2.6

2.6

2.6

2.6

2.6

2.6

2.6

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.5

Source: ONS 20102

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This is in contrast to London as a whole, where migration out exceeds already exceeds migration in, and growth is entirely due to natural change. In London international net in‐ migration remains high, but internal net migration out is higher. Current Demographics Age‐Sex

Westminster’s population is skewed considerably towards young adults. Over 27% of residents are aged between 25 and 34, whereas in England as a whole only 13% of people fall into this age group. Figure 32: Westminster’s Age Breakdown compared

Population Profile of Westminster compared to England ‐ MYE 2010 90+ Quinary Age Groups 80‐84 70‐74 60‐64 50‐54

England

40‐44

Westminster

30‐34 20‐24 10‐14 0‐4 15.00

10.00

5.00 0.00 5.00 % of the Population from each age‐groups

10.00

Source: ONS, 2011

There are therefore proportionately far fewer children and older people in the City than in both London and the UK as a whole. This is a reflection of a number of factors such as the tendency for families with children approaching school age and older people to migrate out of the City if they are able, and the economic opportunities which attract migrant workers from within the UK and internationally. Westminster is also almost unique in the UK in having more male than female residents. This is fundamentally because of the number of male migrants and the fact that there are fewer older people, who usually drive the gender imbalance through longer female life expectancy. August 2011

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There are however more women than men in all the twenties age groups and for all people aged over 55. This traditional flow of age‐groups has been less marked in recent years however, as high international migrants out‐flows which tend to represent changes based on economic circumstances or the opportunities to return abroad become more prevalent. The overall effect in Westminster, is that households have become increasingly polarised into the very wealthy, and those that are benefit dependent and likely to live in social or private rented housing. Diverse Communities

In 1981 36% of Westminster’s residents were born outside the UK compared to just 6% in England & Wales. Annual Population Survey (APS) data suggests that Westminster’s non‐UK born population has now become a majority of the population at 54.4%1 ‐ and is higher than any other local authority in the country. Table 9: Annual Population Survey, Country of Birth Data

Percentage of population not UK born Westminster Newham Brent Kensington and Chelsea Harrow Ealing Haringey Camden Tower Hamlets Hounslow

Not Born in Uk 127,500 135,400 141,200 85,400 98,900 135,800 96,900 97,600 89,600 88,000

Total Population 231,800 249,700 269,400 178,700 214,800 306,700 226,100 232,700 221,500 223,200

Percentage 55% 54% 52% 48% 46% 44% 43% 42% 40% 39%

Source: APS, July 2008‐June 2009, NOMIS, DWP

The origins of migrant living in Westminster are completely different to the rest of Great Britain ‐ there is a much higher proportion of EU nationals, Chinese, Middle Easterners, North Africans, Bangladeshis, North Americans, South Americans, Australasian and pockets of other nationalities otherwise almost non‐existent in the UK. The mix ensures a particularly large and truly diverse mix of communities. Official ethnicity data shown in Figure 33 only partially reveals the amount of diversity within the City, as many of the main ethnic categories are considerably heterogeneous. 1

Note the APS does not cover HMO’s which are likely to be populated by migrant workers, APS Apr 2008‐Mar 2009 August 2011

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City of Westminster Economic Report LEA Baseline Study Figure 33: The ethnic breakdown of Westminster’s residents

Westminster population by ethnicity MYE 2009 Bangladeshi 2% Black Caribbean Other 3% 3%

Pakistani 2%

IrishOther Asian 2% 2% Black Other 1%

White: British 55%

Chinese 4% Black African 4% Mixed 4% Indian 6% Other White 12%

Source: ONS, Mid Year Ethnic Population Estimates, 2009

Short Term Migration The ONS produced a single set of ‘experimental’ data based on population flows in 2007 which show that Westminster had the highest number (63,000) of short‐term migrants of any Local Authority in England and Wales by a considerable margin. The figures for the next largest short‐term migrant population by Local Authority are shown in Table 10. Table 10: Short Term Migrants to the UK by Local Authority

Local Authority Westminster Manchester Birmingham Ealing Camden Barnet Brent

Total estimate 62,830 35,920 32,960 29,150 27,970 23,460 21,560

Source: 2007 based experimental estimates, ONS 2009

The magnitude of short‐term migrant figures in Westminster, are a reflection of the City’s ability to attract both planned and speculative economic migration August 2011

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Westminster is home to a significant number of illegal migrants. According to the 2009 LSE report ‘Impact on the London and UK economy of an earned regularisation of irregular migrants to the UK’, some 75% of the country’s estimated 750,000 illegal migrants live in London. In Westminster alone, reports by ESRO (Ethnographic Social Research Options) and SQW (Segal Quince Wood Wicksteed research) estimate there to be as many as 20,000 people, showing that there is a considerable informal economy where such migrants can work illegally.

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Skills and Education Qualifications As Figure 34 illustrates, over half of Westminster’s residents are educated to at least degree level, with over two thirds educated to A‐level and beyond. This is 59% above the average for England and 36% above the average for London. There are comparatively fewer residents with no qualifications showing that Westminster overall has a highly skilled population. Figure 34: Residents Qualifications, 2009 100% 9 13 80%

12

12

13

17

23

15

% with no qualifications

9 60%

13 3

16 22

40%

6 53

% with other qualifications % with GCSE grades A‐C or equivalent % with GCE A level or equivalent % with higher education below degree level

8

20%

34

% with degree or equivalent and above

22 0% Westminster

England

London

2

Source: Annual Population Survey, (ONS 2010 )

Although the borough on average has a highly skilled population, there are concentrated pockets of qualification deprivation. Figure 35 shows where these areas are, which corresponds to areas of social housing and general deprivation.

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City of Westminster Economic Report LEA Baseline Study Figure 35: Adults with no or low qualification rates

Source: Index of Multiple Deprivation, 2010

Skills Gap Skills gaps exist where employers report having employees who are not fully proficient at their job. The indicator is the proportion of establishments reporting any skills gaps in the current workforce. Westminster generally has a highly skilled workforce, as illustrated below ‐ and the proportion of employers reporting skills gaps is lower in Westminster than London as a whole, and considerably lower than the City of London, with the skills gap decreasing between 2007 and 2009. Table 11: Proportion of employers reporting gaps in skills (%)

Westminster City of London London England

2005 10.8 12.8 12.8 16.4

2007 16.3 24.0 17 15.3

2009 14.6 19.8 16.8 19.0

Source: National Employers Skills Survey, UKCES August 2011

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Occupations Around half of the borough’s residents are managers, senior officials or professionals of some kind with a further quarter in associate technical and professional occupations. The majority of residents are in highly skilled occupations with only 13% in occupations deemed as less highly skilled2 (sales and customer services; process, plants and machine operatives; and elementary occupations). Westminster has a higher rate of self‐employed residents than the rest of London and England as an average (18% compared to 16% in London and 13% in England). Figure 36: Westminster residents by occupation

skilled trades 4%

personal service 4%

process, plant & machine operatives 2%

sales & customer service 5%

associate prof & tech 25%

elementary 7%

administrative & secretarial 10% professional 23% managers & senior officials 20%

2


It is useful to consider the differences between occupations held by residents and workers within Westminster, to assess where there are skills or experience differences between the two groups. One of the most significant areas of difference is in professional occupations, where the proportion of residents is much higher than workers. However, the working population has a higher proportion of managers and senior officials, while the highest occupational category (associate professional and technical) again has a higher proportion of residents than workers. 2

As classified in the Standard Occupational Classification 2000 (SOC2000)

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The remaining categories (except for process, plant and machine operatives) have higher proportions of workers than residents, and include the administrative, elementary, sales and less skilled occupations, again reinforcing the tendency for Westminster residents to be employed in higher skilled professional occupations. On the whole, the data shows that Westminster residents tend to have higher skilled occupations than the incoming daily workforce who do not live in Westminster. Figure 37: Occupation profile of workers and residents in Westminster associate prof & tech managers & senior officials professional administrative & secretarial elementary sales & customer service personal service skilled trades process, plant & machine operatives 0

5

10

% Residents

15

20

25

30

% Workers

2


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Economic Activity Economic activity rates represent the proportion of people aged 16 and over who are either in employment or unemployed. In economic terms it is therefore important to have a high economic activity rate, as this represents the active workforce either in employment or seeking work in the city. However, reasons for economic inactivity include full time students, which are a significant part of Westminster’s population, who contribute to the economy in their own way, and will do so in the future. Economic activity figures can be susceptible to frequent significant changes in many local authorities. Data presented is a snapshot in time, although the broad consistency of economic status amongst Westminster residents shows the economy has considerable resilience locally. In comparison to almost all other London boroughs Westminster’s rate of economically active residents is relatively low. Only 68.2% of Westminster’s working age population are economically active3 (Annual Population Survey, June 2010). This is significantly lower than the London average of 74.8%. Figure 38: Rate of Economically Active Residents by London Borough, 2010 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 Sutton Lambeth Wandsworth Richmond Hillingdon Hounslow Harrow Bromley Merton Bexley Croydon Hackney Lewisham Kingston upon Southwark Havering Ealing Greenwich Islington Waltham Brent Hammersmith Camden Barking and Barnet Redbridge Tower Hamlets Enfield Westminster Haringey Newham Kensington City of London

0

2


3

Economically active‐ either in employment or are actively seeking employment.

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Of the 31.8% economically inactive4 residents a third want a job but do not have one because of several reasons. A quarter of these residents are students, and a further quarter look after family at home. In addition, the other reasons for economic inactivity include long term sickness, and unavailability to start work. Figure 39: Reasons why economically inactive residents who want to work do not

other 20%

unavailable to start work 14% discouraged worker 3% long term sick 13%

student 25% looking after family/home 25%

2

Source: APS, (ONS 2010 )

Unemployment Unemployment is measured either administratively (using the Job Seekers Allowance claimant numbers) or by modelled estimates using the Annual Labour Force Survey– the most accurate way is believed to be the modelled unemployment rate which gives the proportion of those of working age who are not currently in paid employment but are looking for paid employment. It provides a more detailed view (and much higher figures) of residents who are not working but not out of choice compared to active claimants. The modelled unemployment rate highlights those that are out of work and not claiming JSA. This could be because they are not eligible, do not want to claim or do not know they can claim. Westminster has experienced a fluctuating unemployment rate since 2004 (Annual Population Survey, 2010), which becomes apparent when compared to the London average and has been above the England average for at least six years. The peaks of unemployment rates around winter 2008 and winter 2009 relate to the economic downturn, with the added effect of seasonality, where unemployment tends to be higher in winter than summer. 4

Economically inactive‐ not in employment or seeking employment.

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City of Westminster Economic Report LEA Baseline Study Figure 40: Rate of unemployment 10.0 9.0

Westminster London

8.0 7.0

England

6.0 %

5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0

Ju l 2 00 7‐ Ju n Oc 20 t 2 08 00 7‐ Se Ja p n 20 20 08 08 ‐D Ap ec 2 r 2 00 00 8 8‐ M ar Ju 2 00 l 2 00 9 8‐ Ju n Oc 20 t 2 09 00 8‐ Se Ja p n 20 20 09 09 ‐D e Ap c 2 r 2 00 00 9 9‐ M ar Ju 2 01 l 2 00 0 9‐ Ju n 20 10

0.0

Source: Annual Population Survey, 2010

The administrative measure of unemployment is from the Job Seekers Allowance (JSA) claimant counts. It is much lower than the unemployment rate as there are unemployed people who do not claim benefits, either through choice or because they are not entitled to. Westminster JSA claimant rates are lower than the London average (ONS Claimant Counts, 2011), a rate of 2.1 compared to 2.9 in June 2011. The claimant rate has risen since the beginning of the economic downturn in June 2008 reaching a peak of 2.2% in January 2010. However, the rate began to drop again in June 2010 (Figure 41).

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City of Westminster Economic Report LEA Baseline Study Figure 41: JSA claimant rates

Source: ONS Claimant Counts, 2011.

Westminster has a much lower rate of claimants than most other London. The City of London has the lowest rate, however it also has a very small resident population, which skews the figures.

8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0

Hackney Newham Haringey Tower Hamlets Waltham Forest Barking and Dagenham Brent Lambeth Enfield Lewisham Southwark Islington Greenwich Croydon Hammersmith and … Redbridge Ealing Havering Camden Bexley Hounslow Barnet Wandsworth Kensington and Chelsea Bromley Hillingdon Westminster Harrow Merton Sutton Kingston upon Thames Richmond upon … City of London

Figure 42: JSA Claimant Rates across London Boroughs, January 2010

Source: ONS Claimant Counts, 2011

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The majority of claimants claim benefits for a short period of time (58% claiming for less than six months in June 2011) suggesting that for most residents, unemployment is not long‐term. However, there is a core cohort of people affected by long‐term unemployment with 7% of claimants claiming for two years or more. Figure 43: Proportion of JSA Claimants by Duration of Claim in Westminster

40 35

35

30 23

25

23

20 15

12

10

7

5 0 under 13 weeks 14‐26 weeks 27‐52 weeks

1‐2 years

over 2 years


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Local Deprivation The claimant count statistics show that around 40% of claimants are located in just four wards in the north of the city, which are among the most deprived parts of the city. Table 12: Claimant counts by Ward (average 2010 counts)

Ward

Westminster Total Harrow Road Queen's Park Churchill Westbourne Church Street Maida Vale St James's Bayswater Vincent Square Lancaster Gate Little Venice Warwick Hyde Park West End Bryanston and Dorset Square Tachbrook Abbey Road Regent's Park Marylebone High Street Knightsbridge and Belgravia

June 2011 Rate 2.7 6.3 6.3 5.3 4.3 3.8 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.1 2.1 1.8 1.8 1.5 1.2 1 0.2

June 2011 Numbers (rounded)

% growth June 2008‐ June 2011 540 530 310 460 520 270 340 220 240 280 190 200 220 170 220 150 130 140 100 20 22

68% 79% 51% 74% 52% 63% 162% 12% 52% 59% 94% 102% 81% 94% 62% 110% 58% 169% 67% 75% 38%


Westminster contains residents at both ends of the wealth spectrum, being home to some of the richest and most deprived communities. There are many measures which give insight into deprivation but the most commonly used measure is the Index of Deprivation, produced by DCLG (Dept. Of Communities and Local Government). The Index is particularly useful because it takes a broad range of different types of deprivation into account, is produced to a consistent set of standards across England and Wales and is updateable, allowing deprivation to be analysed temporally as well as spatially.

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City of Westminster Economic Report LEA Baseline Study Table 13: Domain Weights in the Index of Deprivation 2010

Domain

Income Employment Health Deprivation & Disability Education ,Skills & Training Barriers to Housing Services Crime Living Environment Source: DCLG, 2010 IMDB

Weight 22.5% 22.5% 13.5% 13.5% 9.3% 9.3% 9.3%

The 2010 Index of Deprivation is based on a series of weighted domains which are aggregated from individual data streams to create a comparative score for every Lower Super Output Area (LSOA). The latest Index of Deprivation data was published in 2010, and many data‐sets within it relate to 2008 data, or indeed the 2001 Census and therefore an update from the DCLG is overdue. In the 2010 Index of Deprivation, Westminster had improved to being the 87th most deprived Local Authority, from being the 72nd of the 326 districts in England in 2007, (39th in 2004). Compared to the 2007 index, 75% of LSOA’s have improved their overall multiple deprivation rank in 2010. The remaining 25% that have worsened are found in 12 of the wards with the worst found in Lancaster Gate (Ward boundaries can be seen in Appendix 2). The combined index shows that at the Lower Super Output Area level, deprivation is mainly confined to the North West Wards, Church Street and to small pockets within the South (Map 6).

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City of Westminster Economic Report LEA Baseline Study Map 6: SOA’s Experiencing Multiple Deprivation in Westminster

Source: CLG, Index of Multiple Deprivation 2010

50% of the ‘deprived’ population live in just 5 wards: Church Street, Westbourne, Queens’ Park, Harrow Road and St James’s Park (in descending order of numbers). Within those wards it is possible to identify still further pockets of the most intense deprivation, and focus resources on worklessness programmes. The other 50% of deprived residents live in pockets of deprivation scattered throughout the rest of the City. Deprivation levels involving children are uniquely problematic. Wards with the highest concentration of children, are also the most deprived and overall almost two in five Westminster children live in a household reliant on benefits. Westminster also contains the single most deprived SOA in England for “Children Affected by Income Deprivation”, which is situated in Queen’s Park.

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Table 14: Numbers of individuals experiencing deprivation Ward

Church Street Westbourne Queen's Park Harrow Road St. James's Churchill Maida Vale Vincent Square Hyde Park Little Venice Lancaster Gate Regent's Park Bayswater Warwick Bryanston and Dorset Square West End Tachbrook Abbey Road Marylebone High Street Knightsbridge and Belgravia Total

No. of Working Age People on at least one benefit

No. of Children aged 0‐15 in Income Deprived Households

2,270 2,200 2,195 1,825 1,305 1,280 1,070 1,050 985 935 915 875 865 785 760 730 635 520 360 70 21,630

1,565 1,687 1,674 1,071 296 789 590 382 256 481 329 361 217 261 138 123 221 183 106 22 10752

No. of Older People aged 60+ in Income Deprived Households 721 623 633 502 248 355 313 319 272 308 335 474 270 251 216 249 315 266 174 38 6882

Total

% of Westminster’s Deprived Population

4,556 4,491 3,532 3,527 3,346 1,968 1,940 1,784 1,613 1,583 1,425 1,407 1,299 1,210 1,174 1,067 936 853 565 137 38,413

11.9% 11.7% 9.2% 9.2% 8.7% 5.1% 5.1% 4.6% 4.2% 4.1% 3.7% 3.7% 3.4% 3.1% 3.1% 2.8% 2.4% 2.2% 1.5% 0.4% 100%

Source: WCC – derived from CLG, Index of Multiple Deprivation 2010

Focus on: Daytime Population Aside from the 253,000 residents, the population of Westminster over the course of a typical working day is boosted by a further 550,0005 workers and 260,0006 tourists. Westminster has 40% of London’s hotels and guesthouses, as well international attractions such as Buckingham Palace, the Houses of Parliament, Westminster Abbey, London Zoo, National Gallery, Tate Britain, and the National Portrait Gallery West End and St James’s are particularly busy areas containing the bulk of both workplaces and tourist sites within the City. Pressures on these areas are considerable at both day‐time and night‐time as shown below. 5

Source WCC – Derived from BRES 2009, 600,000 workers. Census data suggests around 50,000 will also be residents 6 Source WCC – Derived from 3hr+ day visitors + night visitors. LDA Local Tourism Model 2006 August 2011

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City of Westminster Economic Report LEA Baseline Study Figure 44: Distribution of Daytime Population in Westminster

Source: City of Westminster Model, 2010 Figure 45: Distribution of Night‐ Time Population in Westminster

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Day time estimates at the Local Authority level need to be modelled estimates because there is no comprehensive mechanism to count them. Sporadic footfall counts and visitor attraction numbers exist, but there is little to tie them all together comprehensively. In addition, many people will move across borough borders (especially with Camden and the West End) during the course of the day. Westminster estimates are therefore based on fairly robust data returned by businesses on workers matched to workplaces and more modelled figures around tourists. The London Development Agency’s Local Area Tourism Impact model for Westminster published in 2006 estimated that each day around 254,000 tourists are in the City, which have attributed to individual areas within the City using Transport for London (TfL) station data. The TfL data also allows us to make estimates around the population at different times of day. The type of cultural opportunities and attractions that Westminster offers means that there is much less seasonality in the day time population. Local Authority settlement indicators used by the CLG suggests that Westminster experiences over 46 million day visitors and 22 million overnight foreign visitors annually, over twice that of any other London or metropolitan borough in both cases. These exceptionally high figures add considerably to the diversity of the population present at any given time, and present challenges of their own around providing effective services to businesses. For example Westminster street cleaning contractors currently collect some 20,000 tonnes of street litter annually. We are able to associate intensity of street cleaning activity with an estimate of the proportion of litter likely to be created by non‐ residents, and have calculated from the daytime population model that some 77% of total street cleansing costs, based on daytime population estimates are entirely caused by the need to clean up after non‐residents. This means that Westminster effectively pays an extra £13.7 million per year to maintain an environment which allows businesses to operate successfully and does not deter tourists from visiting.

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Focus on: Travel to Work Transportation and Connectivity One of Westminster’s greatest strengths underpinning the economy is its accessibility and general connectivity both within the borough and to greater London as a whole, and to surrounding parts of the south east. There are four main rail termini, and ten of the twelve London Underground lines run through Westminster, serving 32 stations in the borough. In addition, four piers have river boat commuter services, and around 80 bus routes run through Westminster. Map 7: Westminster’s major transport infrastructure

Source: City of Westminster 2011

Despite the level of service, overcrowding is an issue as the daytime population swells to around 1 million people. Westminster contains three of the ten busiest mainline train stations in the country (ORR, 2009‐2010): Victoria (2nd with 70 million passengers), Charing Cross (5th with 37 million passengers), and Paddington (7th with 29 million passengers). The busiest station is Waterloo, with 88 million passengers. It is a similar story with underground stations, where Westminster contains the second busiest underground station, Victoria, which was used by 80 million passengers in 2010 (TFL, 2010), behind Waterloo with around 82 million passengers.

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Insight: Busiest Stations Busiest London Underground Stations (TFL, 2005‐2010): Westminster has four of the ten busiest London Underground stations in London (Victoria, Oxford Circus, Paddington and Piccadilly Circus). Until recently, Victoria was the busiest station, serving around 80 million passengers every year. In total, stations in Westminster handle over 600 million passengers a year (2010), with 12 Westminster stations each handling over 20 million passengers. Figure 46: Busiest London Underground Stations (TFL, 2005‐2010)

Busiest Mainline Stations (ORR, 2008‐2010): Westminster has three of the ten busiest mainline railway stations in the UK (Victoria, Charing Cross, Paddington), with Victoria handling around 70 million passengers every year. In addition, Westminster also contains the smaller Marylebone station, which is still in the top thirty busiest stations in the UK. In total, Westminster’s four mainline stations handle 150 million passengers per year (2010). Figure 47: Busiest Mainline Rail Stations (ORR, 2008‐2010)

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Future Infrastructure Works The growing population and age of existing transportation infrastructure means that constant investment and improvement in networks is required. Map 8 shows current and future transportation schemes affecting Westminster. These schemes include capacity increase schemes on mainline railways, upgrades on tube lines, high speed rail upgrades, and station improvements. In addition to these improvements, the construction of Crossrail line 1 has now begun, Crossrail line 2 is a further potential scheme, in addition to other schemes such as the Cross River Tram amongst others. Map 8: Current and Future Transportation schemes

Source: Westminster Council I&A 2010

Travel to Work Table 15: Method of Travel to Work – All workers in Westminster & London, Census 2001

METHOD OF TRAVEL TO WORK Underground Train Driving a car or van Bus; minibus; coach On foot Bicycle Works mainly at or from home Motorcycle; scooter or moped

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Westminster 35.40% 31.20% 11.10% 9.80% 4.70% 2.10% 1.90% 1.80%

London 16.9% 17.4% 34.0% 9.9% 7.4% 2.1% 7.5% 1.5%

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City of Westminster Economic Report LEA Baseline Study Passenger in a car or van Taxi or minicab Other

1.10% 0.50% 0.40%

2.4% 0.6% 0.4%

Given the exceptional nature of public transport connections within Westminster discussed above, it is unsurprising that public transport accounts for over three‐ quarters of workers main means of travelling to work. Table 15 pre‐dates several key initiatives such as the London Congestion Charging scheme (introduced in February 2003) and the Mayor’s Cycle Hire Scheme (introduced in July 2010), as well as key enabling technology for home working, and therefore figures from the Census 2011 are much needed, to update information on worker flow into the City. The 2001 Census also provided information about the residences of workers. Almost 80% of people working in Westminster at the time of the 2001 Census travelled from other parts of London, (9% from within Westminster) with workers from the Home Counties, who will be even more likely to rely on public transport, accounting for the majority of the rest. In 2011 the ONS will further be releasing data based on new ‘Workplace Zones’ which may allow more detailed and helpful analysis to be undertaken on travel patterns of workers. Map 9: Percentage of Westminster Employees by area of residence

Source: ONS Census 2001

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Similar data is also available taking Westminster residents of working age as a basis for analysis (unfortunately in the 2001 Census 65‐74’s were included in working age table breakdowns). Results are shown in Figure 48, the most striking although not unexpected finding being the very low numbers of residents who commute anywhere outside of London for their main place of work. Of those residents who are in employment, over 50% work in Westminster followed by residents who undertake short commutes to the City of London, Camden and Kensington and Chelsea. It is likely that in choosing to live in Westminster, residents have placed more emphasis on living in close proximity to workplaces than would perhaps be true elsewhere. Altogether, 70% of residents of working age (combining those who live and work in the City and those who live in the City but do not work) remain within Westminster through normal working days. Figure 48: Places of work for Westminster residents aged 16‐74

Place of Work ‐ Westminster Residents Live in Westminster work elsewhere in London 29%

Live in Westminster but are not working 38%

Live and Work in Westminster 32%

Live in Westminster work outside of London 1%

Source: ONS Census 2001 (Table T10)

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City of Westminster Economic Report LEA Baseline Study Map 10: Borough of work for working Westminster residents

Source: ONS Census 2001

Interestingly workers at the likely highest earning end of the income spectrum are those least likely to live in Westminster – although figures are high across the board. Many jobs in Westminster which require unsocial hours, particularly in sectors such as hospitality are likely to suitable only for people who also live locally. Figure 49: Destination of working Westminster residents by occupation

Source: ONS Census 2001 (Table T05)

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3 – Land and Property

          

Key Statistics Average House Price of around £1 million. Median 2‐bed private rent of £600/pw. Median Household Income of £38,000. Housing market of extremes. Office Rents rising. Office Vacancies falling, around the 8% benchmark. Retail Footfall falling. Retail Spend Increasing. Limited Development Opportunities. Heritage and conservation as an asset and constraint. Excellent public transport and accessibility.

Chapter 3 Summary The land and property markets in Westminster are complex and varied across different parts of the city. Underpinning land and property is the extensive transportation network, with excellent connectivity through public transport within London and to the wider south east, other parts of the country, and to the rest of the world through airport connections. However, congestion and overcrowding is an issue, meaning that investment and capacity increases are an ongoing necessity. Westminster has some of the highest house prices in the country, and a unique tenure mix. The super‐prime housing market is a feature of Westminster, as shown by recent developments including 100 Knightsbridge, a market which has been sustained through the recession period. However, the NWEDA area also contains very deprived areas, with low household incomes making affordability a key issue. The commercial markets are also showing interesting trends. Westminster has a very large office and retail stock, along with a world renowned entertainment and night time economy. Office rents in Westminster are amongst the highest in London, however the effect of the recession can be seen in these markets, however recent trends are seeing rents rise and vacancy rates fall as the market recovers. The retail sector has also been affected as footfall has decreased in the major shopping streets, and vacancy rates have risen in some places, however overall spend in the West End has increased, buoyed by foreign visitors. More generally, in both office and retail there are distinct markets in different parts of the city, serving everything from multi national corporations down to local residents, which is a key feature and strength of Westminster’s commercial economy. There is the potential for some fairly major redevelopments in Westminster as illustrated, which will provide new homes and jobs. However space and available sites are very limited in the city, meaning it can take a number of years for schemes to be built. August 2011

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Chapter 3 SWOT Analysis Strengths  Robust housing market throughout the recession: especially the super‐prime market.  Low vacancy rates for office and retail uses.  Considerable high quality, flexible commercial stock in both office and retail.  Desirable office and retail location.  Excellent connectivity and accessibility.  Internationally renowned shopping brand and location.  High yields and profits.  Heritage and built environment of a very high quality. Opportunities  Development in Westminster is profitable.  Wider benefits accrued from business rates and development.  Trickle down effect of regeneration and development to wider communities.  For business to reinvest in land and the wider area to benefit themselves and communities.  Public sector squeeze and decline of some industries gives opportunities for other industries to grow in their place.  Identified opportunity/ development sites.  Crossrail and other infrastructure improvements.

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Weaknesses  Congestion and overcrowding on public transport and in public realm.  Need for constant upgrades, capacity increases to transport network.  Affordability issues in housing, office rents for some sectors.  No Greenfield sites: city is 100% developed.  Limited redevelopment/ regeneration opportunities.  Complex land ownership structures.  Pollution.  Lack of affordable workspace.

Threats  Regeneration areas in other parts of London.  Out of town shopping centres e.g. Westfields, Bluewater.  Online retail and commerce.  Price inflation of consumer goods due to location.  Development opportunities constrained and take time to be realised.  Public sector cuts affecting local services, city management.  Reliance on foreign investment in industry, and foreign buyers for property and other services.  Proposed changes to the Use Classes Order allowing office to change to residential without planning permission: loss of small office stock.

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Residential Property Market Housing affordability is one of the biggest issues facing Westminster residents, as average house prices are amongst the highest in the country. Although house building volumes regularly meet annual policy targets, the demand outstrips supply, and the provision of affordable housing in the city is problematic because of the value of land in the city. Land Registry sales data indicates that the average house price in Westminster is around £1million and rising rapidly (Hometrack, 2011), which makes Westminster the second most expensive local authority in the country behind Kensington & Chelsea, illustrating the affordability issues in central London boroughs compared to the national average house price of just over £232,000 (BBC News, 2011). Within this, in Westminster the average price of a 4‐bedroom house is now over £2.1 million, while the average price of a 2‐bedroom flat is over £640,000. There is considerable variation within Westminster’s housing market, as shown by the significant difference between the average prices of the lower quartile and the upper quartile. However, the average lower quartile price is still well over £400,000, while the size and significance of Westminster’s super prime sales sector is illustrated by the 90th percentile average price of over £2.3 million. 2011 has seen substantial price increases in Westminster that are unprecedented over the last few years, followed by prices levelling out over the summer months. The most substantial increases have occurred in the super prime (90th percentile) market, where the average rose by nearly £.5 million in the space of three months. Figure 50: Average House Prices in Westminster

Source: Hometrack, 2011

Looking over the longer term, Average house prices rose steadily from 2000 onwards, with substantial increases between 2005 and 2008, by which time the average was double the figure for London, and over three times the national

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average, showing how unique Westminster is in this aspect (Figure 51). The fluctuation across London has been less volatile than in Westminster, where sharp rises and falls have occurred in the last five years. However the impact of the recession can be seen on prices around 2008 when they fall, however prices have since recovered and continue to rise, with the average well over the £700,000 mark, to their highest point on record. Figure 51: Broad average (mean) house prices, Westminster and London 2000‐2011


There is considerable variation of average house prices by ward. Knightsbridge & Belgravia is by far the most expensive ward when looking at an overall ‘average’ and the lower quartile average. The remaining wards vary between an average of around £400,000 to over £1 million, with the North West Westminster wards being amongst the cheapest and other more central wards being more expensive. Rental prices are also very high within Westminster, with the median rent for a 2‐ bedroom flat being over £600, nearly twice the London average. Housing association rent is more consistent with London levels; however Westminster is considerably higher than the London average for all private rental categories, usually around twice the level. Table 16: Housing Rental Statistics (weekly rent, £)


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Affordability is the key issue concerning house prices, as the median household income for Westminster residents is around £38,000 (CACI, 2010).  Westminster house price to earnings ratio is 13.7:1  Lower quartile price to earning ratio is 14.5:1  House price to income ratio is 14:1 The income distribution data shows clear spatial variations across Westminster’s Wards. The median household income is highest in the wards with the highest house prices, such as Knightsbridge and Belgravia and Marylebone High Street. A majority of the wards beyond the top few have median household incomes around £40,000. Map 11: Median Household Income across Westminster LSOA’s

Source: Data from CACI, 2010

However, there are five wards where the household income is considerably lower than all the rest. Four of these wards are in the north west of Westminster in the NWEDA (Harrow Road, Queen’s Park, Westbourne, Church Street), again highlighting some of the issues facing this area. The median income falls as low as £23,000 in Church Street, this is £15,000 less than the overall median income for Westminster.

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In addition, the lower quartile income in these areas is very low, again being lowest in Church Street where it is only £14,500, well below the Westminster average for the lower quartile of £23,000. Figure 52: Household Income by Ward

Source: CACI 2010

Compared to London and Great Britain, Westminster has average incomes well above average (mean and median). The Lower Quartile income is also higher than average. However this has to be put into context as discussed, in terms of high house prices, private rents, and issues over housing supply. Table 17: Household Income: Westminster, London, GB Area Westminster Inner London Outer London London Great Britain

Total Households 2010 120,537 1,381,354 1,919,967 3,301,321 26,144,498

Mean Income

Median Income

£ 45,450 £ 38,691 £ 36,913 £ 37,657 £ 33,239

£ 37,795 £ 31,379 £ 30,507 £ 30,861 £ 27,288

Lower Quartile Income £ 23,455 £ 19,171 £ 19,090 £ 19,123 £ 16,925

Mode Income Band 20-25k 15-20k 20-25k 20-25k 15-20k

Source: CACI, 2011

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Housing Tenure Across Westminster, overall housing tenure (Census, 2001) is split as 36% owner occupier (either owned outright, with mortgage or shared ownership), 33% private rented, 26% social rented, and 4% other. This is a very different tenure structure compared to London as a whole, where owner occupation dominates at 60% of households, followed by social renting at 22% and private renting at 16%. Westminster is generally characterised by a smaller owner occupier sector with a larger than average private rented sector. Table 18: Housing Tenure, Westminster and London Tenure Owns (outright, with mortgage/loan) Social Rented Private Rented Other

London 60% 22% 16% 2%

Westminster 36% 26% 33% 4%

Source: Census 2001

There is considerable variation in tenure structure across Westminster, with ownership being much lower in the more deprived wards such as in the NWEDA (Queen’s Park, Church Street etc), where social rented is the dominant tenure. Ownership is highest in some of the more affluent wards such as Abbey Road, Maida Vale and Bayswater, and Knightsbridge and Belgravia. These areas tend to have lower amounts of social housing in them, as housing estates are mostly located in the south and north‐west of the borough. The large private rented sector across Westminster is a unique characteristic, and is one likely to be affected by the limited supply of housing, and by high house prices, causing many to rent privately, which is a feature of many of the more central wards. Figure 53: Housing Tenure by Ward Housing Tenure by Ward (Census 2001) 100% 90% 80% 70%

% Live Rent Free

60%

% Social Rented 50% 40%

% Private Rented

30%

% Owns (outright, with mortgage, shared)

20% 10%

R oa d B K ay ni gh sw ts a br te id Ma r ge id an a V d al B el e gr av R ia eg en t's P ar B k H ry yd an e st P on ar an k d W D M or arw ar se ic yl tS k eb qu on ar e e H ig h S La tre nc et as te rG V in at ce e nt S qu ar H ar e ro w R Q oa ue d en 's P ar k C hu rc hi ll Ta ch br oo k W es tE W nd es tb ou C rn hu e rc h S tre et S tJ am es 's

Li ttl e

A bb ey

V en ic e

0%

Source: Census 2001

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Commercial Property Markets Offices Westminster is the largest office market in the UK, with over 9 million sqm of office floor space, compared to the City of London stock of 7.5 million sqm. The size and importance of the office market in Westminster has already been illustrated as shown by the number of commercial enterprises and employees in Westminster, and by the massive volumes of business rates generated in Westminster. Significant gains in office floor space have been made over the last decade, especially in the Paddington Opportunity Area, which has been a major office development area for both Westminster and London. A very significant characteristic of the Westminster office market is the variety, which is not a characteristic shared by other major office centres such as Canary Wharf. Westminster has a very significant small office market in areas such as Mayfair and St James’s, and significant amounts of flexible office space, to go alongside the larger office floor plates found in areas such as Paddington and Victoria. The importance of this has been illustrated earlier in the breakdown of enterprise sizes, where a majority are small or medium sized enterprises. Office Rents In the period up to the start of the recession in 2008, prime West End office rents were the highest in the world. The trend data below shows how rents have changed since the mid‐1980’s, showing recession periods in the early 1990’s and from 2008 onwards. The general trend has been for rising prime rents, which peaked in 2007‐ 2008 at nearly £120 per square foot (PSF), but which has stabilised to around £80 psf since the current recession took effect in 2008. Rents have started to rise again, showing recovery in the office market over the last year as demand has risen and supply has become constricted through limited development occurring currently and in the pipeline. Figure 54: West End Office Rents (Historic)

Source: Colliers CRE 2010

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Within Westminster there are distinct office market areas (see map 12 below), where Mayfair commands the highest rents, and is made up of enterprises such as hedge funds and other financial services. Victoria tends to accommodate government departments and public sector occupiers, providing larger floor plates. Paddington and the area north of Oxford Street have the lowest office rents out of the areas, and are the focus of creative industries and other more niche industries in the case of Soho, and an emerging new office market in Paddington. Figure 55: Prime Rents by Office Sub Market Area in Westminster


The West End (which constitutes all Westminster sub areas above and Euston) is the most expensive office rental area in London. This is followed by the City of London, where rents are roughly one third less than in the West End. Beyond this, the emerging office markets in the South Bank and Canary Wharf/Docklands have comparatively low rents, at less than half of the West End levels. Figure 56: Office Rents by London Sub Area


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Office Yields and Vacancy Rates Prime yields (return on investment after expenses are deducted) tend to be fairly consistent across Westminster, mainly between 4‐6%, with the areas with cheaper rents providing larger yields (Colliers CRE, 2010). Vacancy rates across Westminster have fluctuated considerably since the mid 1980’s, with very low vacancy rates in the late 1980’s, with substantial rises in the recession period in the early 1990’s. Since 2000, the economic boom and high construction levels led to fluctuating vacancy rates until the start of the current recession in 2007‐2008 when vacancy rates started to rise. Vacancy rates are now dropping, as demand has increased, showing the recovery of the office market over the last year following the recent economic downturn. N.B. The 8% Vacancy Benchmark: The 8% vacancy benchmark is accepted as a pivotal measure for the London office market. Rates above 8% offer occupiers a wider choice of accommodation with the tendency for rents to fall, especially when rates are rising and wider choice is anticipated in the future. If availability is below 8% then there is a tendency for rents to rise, reflecting a narrower choice of accommodation (GLA, 20092). Figure 57: West End Office Vacancy Rates


Vacancy rates also indicate varying levels of health across different parts of the city’s office market. Soho has the lowest vacancy rate, to go along with one of the lowest rents for all submarket areas showing the health of the area for the market it serves, which is primarily the creative industries. Most of the other submarket areas have vacancy rates between 8‐11%, while Paddington has the highest vacancy rate at nearly 17%. This is not surprising as it is an emerging area with many recent completions.

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City of Westminster Economic Report LEA Baseline Study Map 12: Westminster’s Office Sub Markets

Source: Colliers CRE (2010) Figure 58: Westminster Office Sub Markets Vacancy Rates

Source: Colliers CRE, 2011

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City of Westminster Economic Report LEA Baseline Study Figure 59: London Office Sub Markets Vacancy Rates

Source: Colliers CRE, 2011

The Future of Offices in Westminster The future of Westminster’s office market and levels of stock is currently clouded by uncertainty, particularly for the small offices market. This uncertainty has stemmed from proposals to change the Town Planning Use Classes Order to enable offices to change to housing without planning consent. The high value of residential property is likely to have an effect on existing small office stock in Westminster if this proposal is pursued. As mentioned earlier, over 32,000 enterprises in Westminster employ less than ten people (85% of all enterprises), illustrating the size of the small office market in Westminster. Small office loss is already an issue in Westminster. Between 1997 and 2007, over 300 small office units (units under 250smq) were lost, comprising over 46,000 sqm of small office floor space, with residential development responsible for most of this net loss. The proposed amendments to the Use Classes Order would accelerate this loss and squeeze the small office sector in Westminster, undermining the economic sectors that rely on this office space, which is currently one of Westminster’s assets.

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Future Development Westminster’s Core Strategy identifies 29 opportunity sites, which are development sites of strategic importance to the delivery of the Core Strategy. It includes sites necessary for the delivery of major infrastructure, or for the regeneration of an area. The 29 sites include sites in the three opportunity areas mentioned, several sites in the North Westminster Economic Development Area, and others outside these designated policy areas. These sites have preferred uses and are earmarked to deliver substantial amounts of housing, commercial, community and other uses. These sites include major development sites such as Chelsea Barracks and St John’s Wood Barracks, which will deliver substantial amounts of housing for Westminster, and the Middlesex Hospital site which will provide a mix of uses on a rare, large central London site. Map 13: Key Development Sites in Westminster

Source: City of Westminster I&A 2011

The built up nature of Westminster means that development sites cannot be identified easily, and mostly emerge as leases expire, which are known as windfall sites. These tend to be smaller redevelopment sites, which provide a majority of small residential, commercial and mixed use developments in Westminster.

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CAZ Land Use and Development It is estimated that the Core CAZ area currently contains nearly 16 million sqm of floor space, with the main uses being Offices (48%), Residential (13%), Retail (11%), Public Buildings (9%) and Hotels (8%). Beyond the core, the wider CAZ areas are estimated to contain roughly 6.5 million sqm of floor space, of which the main uses are Residential (55%) and Offices (16%). Since 2004, in the CAZ there has been a net gain of over 21,000 sqm of retail floor space generating roughly 1000 new jobs. In the same time period there has been a roughly equivalent loss of office floor space, but there have also been significant gains in hotel rooms, generating nearly 900 new hotel jobs, while nearly 2000 new residential units have been created. Table 19: CAZ: Jobs and development recently delivered and in the pipeline Potential A1 Retail Potential B1 Office Potential Hotel Residential Hotel Jobs Units (net sqm) Jobs A1 (net sqm) Jobs B1 Rooms Completed 2004-2009/10 21021 -19291 869 1984 1001 -1608 869 Under Construction 15055 8120 420 614 717 677 420 Unimplemented Permissions 11459 103768 705 1136 546 8647 705 Total 47535 2264 111888 7716 1994 1994 3734

Source: City of Westminster, I&A 2011

CAZ developments in the pipeline are also very significant. Schemes currently under construction (at summer 2010) are scheduled to deliver over 15,000 net sqm of retail floor space, over 8000 net sqm of office floor space, and 420 hotel rooms, along with a considerable number of residential units. The commercial developments under construction will deliver the potential for roughly 1800 new jobs in the CAZ. In addition, unimplemented schemes with planning permission are scheduled to deliver nearly 11,500 sqm of retail floor space, over 100,000 net sqm of office floor space, over 700 new hotel rooms, and over 1100 new residential units. The unimplemented commercial developments are therefore projected to deliver roughly 10,000 new jobs in the CAZ if all schemes are completed. The Core Strategy Opportunity Areas Significant commercial floor space is in the pipelines, based on schemes currently under construction, and unimplemented schemes with planning permission in the designated opportunity areas (Paddington, Tottenham Court Road and Victoria), the focus areas for development in the foreseeable future. Schemes currently under construction in the three opportunity areas are estimated to deliver 466 jobs in retail, office and hotel developments. A majority of these are

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the result of hotel schemes in the Victoria area, and from a building under construction in Paddington. Schemes with unimplemented planning permissions are forecasted to deliver nearly 13,000 jobs in retail, office and hotel developments. A majority of these are expected in the Paddington opportunity area as part of the Merchant Square development, and also in the Victoria opportunity area as part of major regeneration. Table 20: Opportunity Areas: Developments and potential jobs in the pipeline


NWEDA Development Throughout this document, the many issues affecting NWEDA have been explored, along with the area’s characteristics, in terms of skills, employment, the housing market, income, and other social and demographic issues. A further area to explore is recent and future developments in the area, and the effect on the population. The area contains the Paddington Opportunity Area, which has provided a vast majority of the commercial development in the area in recent years, and will do so in the near future. As shown below, office development in NWEDA has provided roughly 22,000 net jobs through completed developments since 2004, nearly all of which have occurred in the Paddington Basin, as shown by the development location map below. It is projected that schemes currently unimplemented but with planning permission will provide an additional 7500 net office jobs. Table 21: NWEDA: Jobs and developments recently delivered and in the pipeline

Completed 2004-2009/10 Under Construction Unimplemented Permissions Total

Potential Residenti A-Class Potential B1 Office Potential Hotel Hotel Uses (net Jobs Jobs A1 (net sqm) Jobs B1 Rooms al Units sqm) 1510 72 265921 22160 182 182 777 629 30 95 8 -43 -43 235 1251 60 90148 7512 24 24 490 3390 161 356164 29680 206 206 1502

Source: City of Westminster, I&A, 2011

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An issue with the development in Paddington has not been with the volume of jobs created, but with the recipients of these jobs. The jobs provided in the Paddington area have generally been skilled, professional occupations, which does not match with the skills and education profile of the NWEDA residential population. In addition, many occupiers have brought an existing, skilled workforce with them. However, substantial measures have been taken to address this mismatch. The Paddington First job brokerage programme targeted local people, helping them to find employment, and to improve skills through training and education programmes. Paddington First has placed over 5500 people in employment, with a majority of these jobs being in retail and hospitality (45%) and security and parking (10%) (PWP/HDS 2009, 2007). In addition, 60% of Paddington First’s clients come from a non‐white British background, which is important given the demographic make up of the NWEDA. A short analysis of where job recipients live shows that 70% of people live in Westminster postcodes neighbouring the Paddington Basin, with a majority of the remaining 30% coming from postcodes bordering Westminster (PWP, 2009). Map 14: NWEDA Developments Since 2004


The development map 14 illustrates that retail and housing development has been more spread around NWEDA, with main focuses being around the designated shopping areas such as Harrow Road.

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It also illustrates future development opportunities in Church Street, one of the most deprived wards in the country. A number of development sites are being considered within the Church Street master plan area, which should contribute to improving the local economy, and the skills and prospects of residents. In addition, the area contains many housing renewal sites, as part of Westminster’s housing renewal strategy, which should improve living conditions for many residents, and is particularly important given the high dependency on social housing in the area.

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GLOSSARY & Acronyms ABI Annual Business Inquiry: The Office for National Statistics financial information survey, sampling UK businesses across all industrial sectors. APS Annual Population Survey. Rolling labour force sample survey carried out by the Office for National Statistics, producing employment and labour force statistics. BREEAM (Building Research Establishment Environmental Assessment Method) is the leading and most widely used environmental assessment method for buildings, and has become the de facto measure used to describe a building's environmental performance, based on an assessment and scoring methodology. BRES Business Register and Employment Survey: The Business Register and Employment Survey (BRES) has replaced and integrated two existing ONS business surveys, the Annual Business Inquiry (ABI) and Business Register Survey (BRS) and is a sample survey of approximately 80,000 businesses. BRES collects comprehensive employment information from businesses in England, Scotland and Wales representing the majority of the Great Britain economy. Business Rates Non‐domestic, or business, rates are the way in which businesses and other occupiers of non‐domestic property contribute toward the cost of local authority services via Central Government. Each business is given a rateable value by the Valuation Office, based on the annual rent for the property if it was available on the open market on a set date. CAZ Central Activities Zone: Central area of London extending across 10 London boroughs as designated by an indicative boundary in the London Plan (Mayor of London’s Spatial Development Strategy). The Central Activities Zone (CAZ) contains a unique cluster of vitally important activities including central government offices, headquarters and embassies, the largest concentration of London's financial and business services sector and the offices of trade, professional bodies, institutions, associations, communications, publishing, advertising and the media. Creative Industries Generic term for the following sub groups of economic activity: Creative Content (Produce intellectual property: broadcast, music, film, publishers), Creative Experience (Live theatre, music, opera, dance), Creative Originals (Manufacture of e.g. fashion, tailoring, jewellery, arts, antiques), Creative Services (Architects, graphic design, advertising, new media, post production).

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Economically active People of working age (aged 16‐64) who are either in employment or unemployed. Economically inactive People of working age who are neither in employment nor unemployed. This includes those who want a job but have not been seeking work in the last four weeks, those who want a job and are seeking work but not available to start work, and those who do not want a job. Enterprise A fledgling new start up unit/business, or an entire business group or corporation. Floor Plate Total area taken up by the ground floor of a building. Green Economy/Low Carbon Economy Whereby the economy is rebalanced for a more environmentally sustainable future, through a transition away from the use of carbon intensive fuels. The green economy is expected to grow strongly, driven by necessity, regulation and consumer preference. GLA Greater London Authority. GDP A measure of the total economic activity in the economy. The link between GVA and GDP is that GVA plus taxes on products minus subsidies on products is equal to GDP. GVA Gross Value Added: Gross value added is the difference between output and intermediate consumption for any given sector/industry. That is the difference between the value of goods and services produced and the cost of raw materials and other inputs which are used up in production. IDBR Inter Departmental Business Register: The Inter‐Departmental Business Register (IDBR) is a list of UK businesses maintained by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The IDBR covers businesses in all parts of the economy, missing some very small businesses operating without VAT or PAYE schemes (self employed and those with low turnover and without employees) and some non‐profit organisations, representing nearly 99 per cent of UK economic activity.

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IMD Index of Multiple Deprivation: Measure of deprivation at a small local level, based on several dimensions which can all be identified and measured, and combined to give an overall indication of deprivation: income deprivation, health deprivation, employment deprivation, skills and education deprivation, barriers to housing and services, living environment deprivation, crime. NWEDA North Westminster Economic Development Area: An economic development area designated in Westminster’s Core Strategy (adopted January 2011) to address the needs of the principal area of economic renewal in the north‐west of Westminster. This area covers wards suffering the greatest deprivation in Westminster and includes the Paddington opportunity area to ensure the benefits of developments in this area benefit the wider area. ONS The Office for National Statistics. Responsible for the collection, production, analysis and dissemination of a range of official economic and social statistics relating to the UK, to serve the public good and meet legal obligations. ORB The international shopping district in the West End consisting of of Oxford Street, Regent Street and Bond Street. Proposals Sites Sites of strategic importance to the delivery of Westminster’s Core Strategy (adopted January 2011), which are necessary for the delivery of major infrastructure projects, or for the regeneration of an area. Quinary A numerical system with 5 as the base. SIC The United Kingdom Standard Industrial Classification of Economic Activities (SIC) is used to classify business establishments and other standard units by the type of economic activity in which they are engaged. It provides a framework for the collection, tabulation, presentation and analysis of data and its use promotes uniformity. In addition, it can be used for administrative purposes and by non‐ government bodies as a convenient way of classifying industrial activities into a common structure. Super Output Area Super Output Areas (SOAs) are a geography designed for the collection and publication of small area statistics. There are currently two layers of SOA, with areas intermediate in size between 2001 Census Output Areas (OAs) and local authorities and each layer nesting inside the layer above. This offers a choice of

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scale for the collection and publication of data, and allows for the release of local data that could be disclosive if published for OAs. SOAs give an improved basis for comparison across the country because the units are more similar in size of population than, for example, electoral wards. They are also intended to be stable, enabling the improved comparison and monitoring of policy over time. In addition, figures for user defined geographies will be aggregated and best fitted from data held for OAs and SOAs. Unemployed People without a job, having actively sought work in the last four weeks and are available to start work in the next two weeks, or out of work, have found a job and are waiting to start it in the next two weeks. Unemployment The number of unemployed people in the UK, following the internationally agreed definition recommended by the International Labour Organisation (ILO). Working Age Population People aged 16‐64 for males and 16‐59 for females. Most data produced by Central Government departments are provided for these age groups but alterations to pension legislation (extending working ages) mean that outputs in the future will change and become more complex. Worklessness Defined by the Department of Work and Pensions as "people of working age who are not in formal employment, but who are looking for a job (the unemployed), together with people of working age who are neither formally employed nor looking for formal employment (the economically inactive)". Yield Return on investment after all expenses are deducted.

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REFERENCES Burns Owen Partnership (BOP) (2011), Westminster Creative Industries Programme, Statistical Update March 2011, available on request from Westminster City Council CACI (2010), Westminster Paycheck Data, data commissioned from CACI. Colliers CRE (2011), Office Rents Data, available from www.colliers.com/markets/uk/OfficesReports City of Westminster Council (2010), Westminster Business Rates, internal data not publically available. City of Westminster Council (2011), Westminster’s Core Strategy, available from www.westminster.gov.uk/ldf CNN (2011), Global top 500 Companies, available from http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/global500/2010/ DCLG (2007), Index of Multiple Deprivation, available from http://www.communities.gov.uk/publications/communities/indiciesdeprivation07 Enjoy England (2009), Annual Visitor Attractions Survey, available from www.enjoyengland.com Greater London Authority (2009), GLA Employment Projections, available from http://data.london.gov.uk/datastore/package/gla‐sector‐employment‐projections‐ 2009 Greater London Authority (20092), London Office Policy Review, available from http://static.london.gov.uk/mayor/planning/docs/lopr‐2009.pdf GVA Grimley (2007), Creative Industries in Westminster, available from www.westminster.gov.uk/planning/majorprojects/creativeindustries Higher Education Statistics Agency (2011), Students and Staff Statistics by Institution, available from http://www.hesa.ac.uk/index.php Hometrack (2011), Housing Intelligence Data, available on subscription from www.hometrack.co.uk and www.realtimevaluations.co.uk London Development Agency (2009), Local Area Tourism Impact Model: Westminster, available from http://www.lda.gov.uk/publications‐and‐ media/publications/lati.aspx

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London Development Agency (20092), London low carbon sector borough data, available from www.lda.gov.uk New West End Company (2011), West End Footfall and Sales Research, reports available on subscription from www.newwestend.com/research Nightmix (2010), Nightmix News: Night time economy, available from www.tbr.co.uk Office for National Statistics (2000‐2008), Annual Business Inquiry, available on subscription from www.nomisweb.co.uk Office for National Statistics (2001), Census of Population, available on subscription from www.nomisweb.co.uk or www.statistics.gov.uk Office for National Statistics (2009), Business Demography, available from http://www.statistics.gov.uk/downloads/theme_commerce/Business‐Demography‐ 2009.xls Office for National Statistics (20092), BRES – Business Register and Employment Survey, available on subscription from www.nomisweb.co.uk Office for National Statistics (2010), Inter‐Departmental Business Register, available on subscription from http://www.statistics.gov.uk/CCI/nugget.asp?ID=195 Office for National Statistics (20102), Annual Population Survey, available on subscription from www.nomisweb.co.uk Office for National Statistics (20103), Components of Change, available from www.statistics.gov.uk Office for National Statistics (2011), Claimant Count, available on subscription from www.nomisweb.co.uk ORR (Office of Rail Regulation) (2010), Station Usage Data, available from http://www.rail‐reg.gov.uk/server/show/nav.1529 Paddington Waterside Partnership (PWP) (2009), Paddington First, documents and data available from www.paddingtonfirst.com QS (2010), World University Rankings, available from http://www.topuniversities.com/university‐rankings/world‐university‐rankings Roger Tym & Partners (RTP) (2011), Westminster GVA estimates and projections, not publically available (research commissioned for this document) Society of London Theatres (2011), London Theatres 2010 Factsheet, available from www.officiallondontheatre.co.uk

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TFL (2005‐2010), Underground Station Usage Statistics, available from http://www.tfl.gov.uk/tfl/corporate/modesoftransport/tube/performance/default.a sp?onload=entryexit TFL (2009), London Underground Performance: Station Entrants and Exits, available from http://www.tfl.gov.uk/tfl/corporate/modesoftransport/tube/performance/default.a sp?onload=entryexit UKCES (UK Commission for Employment and Skills) (2009), National Employers Skills Survey, available from www.lseo.org.uk

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Appendices Appendix 1: Westminster’s Key Policy Boundaries

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Appendix 2: Westminster’s Ward Boundaries

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Appendix 3: Key Performance Indicators As mentioned at the outset of this document, key performance indicators have been identified for each chapter, to facilitate the ongoing monitoring of the themes covered within this document, to keep the document current and relevant. The indicators will be monitored on an online dashboard. The indicators chosen are regarded to be the best and most telling indicators for each chapter, and will provide an ongoing overview of key economic trends and issues in Westminster. The data will be displayed at the most appropriate geography, primarily comparing Westminster trends against London, but also showing other geographical levels where available or appropriate. Indicator Name Chapter 1: Business and Economy Number of Businesses Number of Employees Enterprise births and deaths Business Rates data Businesses by industry and size Retail footfall data Chapter 2: Population and Workforce Mid year population estimate Working age population structure by sex JSA claimant rate Worklessness Economic Activity/Inactivity Resident and worker qualifications Chapter 3: Land and Property Average house prices Household income Office rents and vacancy rates Average private residential rent Annual Westminster development update Public transport passenger numbers

Source

Data Frequency

BRES/IDBR (ONS) BRES/IDBR (ONS) Business Demography (ONS) City of Westminster BRES/IDBR (ONS) New West End Company

Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual Quarterly

ONS ONS ONS ONS ONS APS (ONS) and IMD

Annual Annual Quarterly Quarterly Quarterly Annual

Hometrack CACI Colliers CRE Hometrack City of Westminster TfL and ORR

Quarterly Annual Quarterly Annual Annual Annual

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