Economy heads for soft landing - Dun & Bradstreet Vietnam

ASIA NEWSFLASH August 2016

COUNTRY SPOTLIGHT

MALAYSIA

Economy heads for soft landing In H1 2016, Malaysia’s economy grew at a reduced pace compared to last year, but still faster than most developed nations. The depreciated ringgit has to date had only modest effects on the trade balance, the weak global growth environment weighing on Malaysia’s trade performance. As of end-June 2016, Malaysia had international reserves of USD97.2bn (sufficient to cover 8.1 months of imports and 1.2 times the level of shortterm external debt). Given the pressure that the ringgit has been under, the current level of reserves (and the rate at which they have declined) remains a concern. The Sentiment survey shows that Malaysian consumers are concerned about the effects of the slowdown on their finances and job security, and indeed, unemployment has been inching upwards in 2016 (to 3.5% in April, up from 3.0% a year ago). Additionally, the Q3 Malaysia Business Optimism Index survey reported that business confidence dips amid global volatilities. Positively, average wages seem to be increasing (at least in the manufacturing sector). Inflation is also on a declining trend, falling to 2.1% in May, down from 3.5% at the start of the year (this is positive for consumers’ purchasing power). Overall, we maintain our 4.2% real GDP growth forecast for this year, but caution that risks are skewed to the downside. The result of the United Kingdom’s EU referendum is expected to have little direct impact for Malaysia. The country has little trade with the UK (1.2% of total goods exports in 2015); the main risks are via the increase in global volatility. Finally, Malaysia’s ruling coalition won two byelections in June, arguably showing that the recent scandals the prime minister has been implicated in

have not had a significant impact on his appeal to voters. The winning majority was even wider than in the 2013 election. The result can also be attributed to an opposition that is in disarray. Please click here to view the full report via your D&B subscription.

Country Headlines – Australia - Uncertainty declines as government secures lower house of parliament – China - The yuan descends towards the CNY7:USD mark reflects Brexit impact – Indonesia - The Brexit vote has little adverse impact on financial markets – Japan - Growth drivers for the sluggish economy remain elusive – New Zealand - Deteriorating logistics ranking puts pressure on risk picture – Taiwan - China’s diplomatic freeze puts the economy under new pressure

Whether you are involved in strategic investment decisioning; financial risk analysis; or supply chain management, understanding the operational landscape in the countries where you do business is crucial. Dun & Bradstreet Country Insight Services provide analysis, ratings, and forecasting for over 130 countries. To find out more about our country insight reports and services please click here.


MARKET INSIGHT

Firms See Modest Uptick in Optimism By Dun & Bradstreet Indonesia | Dun & Bradstreet WWN partner

The Q3 2016 Business Optimism Index (BOI) indicates brighter optimism from the surveyed companies that their business will expand in the quarter. Dun & Bradstreet (D&B) Indonesia BOI stands at 57.7%, up 9.4 percentage points from the previous quarter (q-o-q) 48.3%. Positively, Indonesian financial markets have so far experienced little adverse impact from the UK’s historic ‘Brexit’ vote, which took place on 24 June. In fact, as of 29 June, the rupiah had strengthened by 2% against the US dollar, while the Jakarta Stock Exchange Composite Index had also gained a similar amount.

5

60 50

4

40

3

30

2

20

2012

2013 Composite BOI

2014

2015

Q3

Q2

Q1

Q4

Q3

Q2

Q1

Q4

Q3

Q2

Q1

Q4

Q3

0 Q2

1

0 Q4

10

GROWT H

6

70

Q1

SCORE B OI

80

GDP

7

90

(% )

O V E R A L L B O I S C O R E CHART (Q3 2 0 1 2 - Q2 2 0 1 6 )

2016

GDP Growth (y-o-y %)

– Optimism index of Employment took a largest percentage increase on q-o-q basis, from 5.3% in previous quarter to 13.7% in Q3 2016. Finance is the most favorable sector regarding to this parameter, followed by Agriculture and Mining. Around 15.7% of respondents across all sectors expect inclining their workforce while only 2% anticipate decrease and the remaining 82.3% to stay the same. – Triggered by seasonal factors including the fasting month of Ramadan, Selling Price enjoyed a quarterly gain of 7.3%, from 17.3% in Q2 to 24.7% in Q3 2016 with 27% of respondents predicting an increase, 2.3% decrease, and 70.7% foreseeing no change. Finance is the most optimistic with a net growth 61.9% on a q-o-q basis.

– Inventory and Net Profit posted a slight hit on q-o-q basis, by 2.3% and 2% respectively. Agriculture and Mining most expected their inventories to increase while respondents in Finance and Agriculture had the best outlook for Net Profit. – Both Sales and New Orders move in tandem by generating 2% q-o-q decrease. Sales dropped from 28.7% to 26.7% in Q3 2016 and New Orders recorded downward adjustment from 28.3% to 26.3%. Deep cuts of both parameters are felt in Wholesales and Services. Third-quarter economic growth is forecasted to improve as household consumption grew robustly along with the soaring retail sales ahead of Eid al-Fitr. Moreover, macroeconomic stability continues as reflected by low inflation rate, maintained current account deficit, and the relatively stable exchange rate. Those are expected to further strengthen efforts to boost domestic demand in order to drive the momentum of economic growth, while maintaining macroeconomic stability, amid weak global economy and the uncertainty of post Brexit referendum. In addition, private sector investment is seen to record an increase (y-o-y). Indonesia Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM) stated investment realization during first quarter of this year reached Rp 146.5 trillion, up 17.6 percent from the same period of last year totaled Rp 124.6 trillion, higher investment realization in the first quarter of 2016 can create optimism that investment until year’s end will rise. The government also plans to start implementing the Tax Amnesty Law on July 1 after The House of Representatives agreed to pass the tax amnesty bill into law on June 28. The central bank estimates the amnesty will help draw Rp 560 trillion ($42.5 billion) of funds back to the country. Almost 30 percent, or Rp 165 trillion ($12.5 billion), will flow to the government, to finance a widening budget gap as it steps up infrastructure spending to spur economic growth to be in the range of 5.0-5.4% (y-o-y) in 2016.

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ASIA PERSPECTIVES

The Brexit Impact on 3 of Asia’s Largest Economies By Dun & Bradstreet United Kingdom

– EUR:USD and CNY:USD rate CNY6.69:USD after the Brexit

China

GBP:USD weakness will cause the to depreciate. The yuan briefly hit when markets reopened the week result.

– Accounts receivable denominated in yuan will depreciate in US dollar terms and US dollarpriced exports shipped to China will weaken in competitiveness somewhat going into 2017.

P O S I T I V E I M P L I C AT I O N S

By revealing to Chinese investors with mobile capital that political risk can strike ‘safe haven’ London property, the Brexit vote may encourage some Chinese capital to stay at home. US and Australian property markets may be buoyed further by diverted Chinese demand. N E G AT I V E I M P L I C AT I O N S

– The central impact to date is on the CNY:USD rate, which we expect to weaken in the direction of CNY7:USD in 2016 and to trade around this level in 2017.

R E C O M M E N D AT I O N S

Expect the currency to weaken towards CNY7:USD by end-2016 and to trade at around CNY7 in 2017. Expect and plan for a pattern of continued or increased delays in payments for services, royalties and capital transfers out of China. Assess pricing with Chinese suppliers and customers more frequently in the next six months to ensure your contracts with Chinese counterparties are priced competitively.

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ASIA PERSPECTIVES

Japan

India to control import bills and imported inflation, and will also assist the central bank in maintaining its monetary easing stance.

P O S I T I V E I M P L I C AT I O N S

CONCERN FOR BUSINESSES

Companies can expect input prices to stagnate, as both domestic inflation and imported inflation will remain low. The payments performance of Japanese SMEs may improve, as they rely to a large extent on imports and sell domestically, hence benefitting from the stronger Yen.

The major concern for India relates to business sectors with high/direct exposure to the UK and Europe. The biggest impact could be among IT companies if clients in the UK and EU postpone spending due to uncertainty over how things will pan out in the near future; this would have a negative impact on revenue growth from Europe. The potential depreciation of the pound and euro against the rupee could also hit revenues from these economies. In contrast, the depreciation of the euro/pound against the dollar would make the crosscurrency impact favourable for companies that convert their euro/pound revenues into dollars and sell them for rupees, helping them reduce the impact of pound-/ euro-depreciation on their balance sheets.

N E G AT I V E I M P L I C AT I O N S

With inflation under pressure from the strong Yen, Japan will not exit the deflation trap in 2016 either, with negative impact on the country’s long-term growth prospects. Corporate profits will be lower than was anticipated before the vote (the repatriation of foreign profits will translate into lower Yen-denominated profits…while exporters in general will struggle due to their poorer price competitiveness. Automakers are particularly affected. The 1,000 or so Japanese companies active in the UK (some of which export from the UK to Europe) face an uncertain future. R E C O M M E N D AT I O N S

Expect Japanese companies with (1) a significant proportion of UK sales in total sales, (2) a significant proportion of UK production in total production, and (3) large exposure to the EU market to struggle. Auto sales forecasts in the EU have already been lowered. Beware that the global uncertainty may extend Japan’s investment slump. Factor in a stronger JPY:USD exchange rate in 2016-17.

India C O M M O D I T I E S FA C E C H A L L E N G E S

The global slowdown is expected to delay the recovery in international commodity markets. This will help

The majority of Indian businesses choose to locate their European offices in the UK in order to benefit from the ease of operating in the UK while accruing the advantages of seamless access to the wider EU. Removal of this gateway would be a serious concern for Indian businesses headquartered in the UK, who might now have to relocate and direct investment to Europe, and comply with two different sets of laws. CONCLUSIONS

Overall, global and local markets are currently experiencing a reflex reaction to the UK’s historic referendum vote. Brexit itself is still far from a reality, and the formal procedure for the UK’s exit from Europe is yet to be laid out. While the procedural window for withdrawal is two years (which starts once the formal withdrawal procedure is invoked), many policy initiatives and actions to stabilise the world economy and trade are anticipated. And although Indian businesses with direct exposure to the UK (and to the EU more widely) will inevitably face some challenges, the fact that Brexit has been discussed as a possibility for some time means that many such companies have already taken measures to limit the effects of the UK’s decision. CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ARTICLES ON THESE COUNTRIES

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SPECIAL REPORT

Corporate Debt in Emerging Market Economies This special report is the first of a two part series on corporate debt within 53 countries 19 which are Emerging Markets, courtesy of Atradius.

SUMMARY – C O R PO R ATE

DE B T

IN

E M E R GIN G

MARK ET

ECON OMIES

(EMES)

H AS

SIGN IFICANTLY

R I SE N, O U T PACIN G E AR N IN GS GR O W TH . TH IS IS RAISIN G CON CERN S ABOUT CORP ORATE C R E D I T WO RT HIN E S S GIV E N AN IN CREASIN GLY CH AL L EN GIN G ECON OMIC EN VIRON MENT. E M E S SH O C K AB S O R P T IO N CAPACITY IS STRON GER TH AN P REVIOUS P ERIOD S OF GL OB AL M A R K E T T U R B UL E N CE , B UT S O M E S ECTORS REMAIN VUL N ERABL E. – C O R PO R ATE S T HAT AR E HIGHLY LEVERAGED , H AVE BORROWED EX TERN AL LY IN USD O R H AVE R E L AT IV E LY L O W B UF F E RS ARE MOST VUL N ERABL E. TH ESE CORP ORATES ARE C O NC E N T R AT E D IN B R AZ IL , IN DIA, IN D ON ESIA, RUSSIA, SOUTH AFRICA AN D TURK EY. – C O R PO R ATE S O P E R AT IN G IN T HE EN ERGY, MIN IN G, CON STRUCTION (MATERIAL S) A ND T R A NSPO RT S E CT O R S AR E AL S O EX P OSED . COMPAN IES IN TH E REAL ESTATE SEC TOR SH O U LD BE WAT CHE D AS W E L L , AS TH EY GEN ERAL LY D O N OT H ED GE TH EIR FOREI G N C U R R E N C Y E X P O S UR E .

Atradius Economic Research – May 2016


SPECIAL REPORT

CORPORATE DEBT IN EMEs HAS INCREASED RAPIDLY

C O R P O R AT E D E B T R AT I O S K E W E D B Y C H I N A

Global debt of households, non-financial corporates and the government – so called non-financial debt – has risen to 233% of GDP in 2015 from 212% prior to the 2008 global financial crisis.1 This reflects a very strong increase in the debt ratio of emerging market economies (EMEs) and a more modest increase in advanced economies.2

Corporates in emerging market economies3, particularly in the mining, energy, construction (materials) and real estate sectors, have significantly increased their borrowing in the period of cheap money following the global financial crisis. Their debt has risen by a staggering USD 15 trillion since 2008, surpassing USD 24 trillion in the third quarter of 2015. The average debt-to-GDP ratio widened by 40 percentage points to over 100%, which is well in excess of the average ratio of 86% for advanced economies.

Whereas in advanced economies the build-up of debt has been mostly driven by government debt, the non-financial corporate sector was mainly responsible in EMEs. This rapid debt build-up in EMEs has raised concerns about the creditworthiness of its corporate sector given an increasingly challenging environment of sluggish global trade, low commodity prices, declining profitability, depreciating currencies and the normalization of US interest rates. And although it is currently not expected that problems in the corporate sector in EMEs will become systemic, as their shock absorption capacity is much stronger compared to earlier periods of turbulence on global markets, risks have increased on a micro level, depending on the sector and the country in which corporates are operating. In this Research Note we will put A closer look at corporate debt in emerging market economies Atradius Economic Research – May 2016 Atradius Economic Research the developments in EMEs corporate debt in perspective and we will identify these areas of concern.

This has raised concerns at the multilateral organizations such as the IMF and the BIS. These concerns are just, but need to be put in perspective. By far, most of this increase is related to developments in China (and Hong Kong, which is part of Greater China). Excluding China and Hong Kong, the increase in EMEs non-financial corporate debt is more modest at 12% of GDP, to some 53%. However, this hides important differences between countries, in terms of the pace at which debt is growing and the way it is being financed. The rise in corporate debt-to-GDP ratios was most pronounced in Turkey, Brazil, Russia and Malaysia (see Figure 3, red bars). In all four countries the increase started from a low base and the debt level (blue bars in Figure 3) remains moderate as a share of GDP. That said, in both Brazil and Russia, the recent increase in the debt ratio also reflects a contracting economy, which is generally not a favourable environment for credit risk.

F I G U R E 1 G L O B A L C H A N G E I N D E B T- T O - G D P 2 0 1 5 Q 3

F I G U R E 2 E M E N O N - F I N A N C I A L C O R P O R AT E D E B T

PERCENTAGE POINT CHANGE SINCE 2008Q2

PERCENT OF GDP 60

250 200

40

150 20 100 0

50 0

-20 WORLD

HOUSEHOLDS

ADVANCED

NON-FINANCIAL CORPORATES

EMEs

EMEs excl CHINA & HK

HONG KONG

GOVERNMENT

2015Q3

Sources: BIS, Atradius

1

Source: BIS. Debt is defined as domestic bank credit, debt securities issued in the domestic and international capital markets and other external debt. Domestic credit from the ‘shadow’ banking sector in dot included, owing to a lack of data.


CHINA

TURKEY

BRAZIL

RUSSIA

MALAYSIA

CHANGE 2015/2008 IN %-POINTS GDP

Sources: BIS, Atradius

2

Source: BIS. The dataset comprises 19 emerging markets, including Argentina, Brazil, China, Czech Republic, Hong Kong, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Israel, Malaysia, Mexico, Poland, Russia, Saudi-Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, South Korea, Thailand and Turkey and 22 advanced economies (Australia, Canada, Denmark, 12 eurozone-countries, Japan, New Zealand, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, UK and US). These countries account for some 85% of global GDP.

3

Note that EME corporates include some state-owned companies.


SPECIAL REPORT

external funding, but also companies producing nontradables, most notably in local property markets and often intermediated through the domestic banking system (not included in external debt of corporates). These companies are more exposed to currency risk than companies in the tradable sector.5

D E B T C O M P O S I T I O N B E C A M E M O R E R I S K Y, D E B T S E R V I C E C A PA C I T Y U N D E R M I N E D

Seven important developments in the most recent borrowing binge stand out. 1) Increasingly leveraged balance sheets. This is particularly true for corporates in Brazil, India and Russia. The median debt-to-equity ratio of the most leveraged corporates in these countries (top quartile) ranged between 150 and 160 percent4. 2 Unchanged share of external financing. On average EMEs corporates financed themselves predominantly on domestic markets (95% of total corporate debt for China, on average 62% for the other EMEs), in local currency (also 95% for China and on average around 70% on a residency basis for the other EMEs), mainly at the local banks.

6) Weaker global commodity prices have significantly reduced the natural hedge of exporting companies. 7) EME companies in aggregate have become less profitable, particularly in the tradables sector as a result of weakening world trade and the decline in commodity prices. FIGURE 3 CHANGE IN EME NON-FINANCIAL C O R P O R AT E E X T E R N A L D E B T FROM 2015 TO 2017, IN PERCENT XGS

3) External debt substantially widened. In some cases, it even outpaced growth of external receipts, making corporates in these countries more vulnerable to refinancing and exchange rate risk. This was particularly true for Brazil and to a somewhat lesser extent Indonesia, Russia, South Africa, Malaysia, Argentina and India (see Figure 4 which shows the countries with the highest increases in the external debt ratio). Argentina and Malaysia have significant buffers though, reducing their vulnerability. 4) Intercompany debt has increased. EME corporates have significantly increased their external borrowing through bonds (particularly Malaysia, Mexico and to a lesser extent South Africa) often issued by their overseas subsidiaries. Almost half of the increase in external debt of EMEs corporates excluding China and Hong Kong reflects intercompany debt (notably Brazil, Russia, South Africa and Argentina; red bars in Figure 4). This debt is however less susceptible to refinancing risk (see box). External debt excluding intercompany debt better reflects corporates external vulnerabilities. This debt is highest in Indonesia. 5) External debt accumulation in non-tradables sector. Not only exporting companies raised their foreign

4

Source: IMF Country Report No 16/76, March 2016.


BRAZIL

INDONESIA

RUSSIA

SOUTH AFRICA

MALAYSIA

ARGENTINA

INDIA

-20

0

INTERCOMPANY

20

40

60

80

100

OTHER CORPORATE EXTERNAL DEBT

Sources: BIS, World Bank, EIU, Fitch Ratings

CORPORATES IN TURKEY APPEAR MOST VULNERABLE

Based on these indicators, corporates in Turkey look most vulnerable, followed by Brazil, Indonesia and India. Corporates in these countries have relatively low external buffers, meaning that they have the highest net-external corporate debt position across EMEs and exposing them most to refinancing risks. To a lesser

5

Please note that according to a recent BIS paper real estate companies appear to be particularly exposed as company reports suggest that many of these firms are not hedging the currency risk at all. Source: BIS Working Paper no 550, A new dimension to currency mismatches in the emerging markets: non-financial companies, March 2016.


SPECIAL REPORT

extent, this is also the case for corporates in Russia, South Africa and Mexico. Corporate refinancing risks are mitigated by large official reserves in Brazil, India, Russia and Mexico. These countries also experienced quite large currency depreciations since May 2013, when markets suddenly realized that the period of ultra-loose US monetary policy would be finite following the announcement of the US central bank that it would taper its bond purchasing programme (see Figure 6). And although markets are currently in a risk-on mood, resulting in generally appreciating currencies, this could easily change again. To assess the specific vulnerabilities the above followed top down approach needs to be combined with a bottomup approach, including information on corporate debt service, leverage, hedging and access to financing. The background on individual countries addresses these issues and also provides information on vulnerable sectors.

external financing – i.e. by non-residents – is a less stable source than domestic financing, as it exposes the borrower to international funding crises and sudden stops in capital flows. Foreign currency borrowing is more risky than borrowing in local currency, as it involves currency risk, amplifying vulnerabilities to a shift in market sentiment. Bond financing is particularly sensitive, because bonds are tradable, unlike bank loans. Short-term funding is also more risky than longer term, as it increases the vulnerability to interest rate and refinancing shocks. Also note that external borrowing and foreign currency borrowing are not the same: EMEs are increasingly able to borrow on international markets and from international banks in local currency. At the same time, in some EMEs domestic banks lend in foreign currency.

B A C K G R O U N D O N A S S E S S I N G C O R P O R AT E DEBT VULNERABILITIES

Most vulnerable are corporates that are highly leveraged (debt-to-equity), especially those having borrowed externally in foreign currency, at shorter maturities, with bonds that are not properly hedged and/or have low buffers. In this Research Note we have ranked the countries for which corporate debt figures are available based on information on (change in) corporate debt levels, the share of external debt, the composition of that external debt (securities, short term), and corporate external assets.1 Table 1 shows an overview of the indicators used per country. Where relevant, information on the currency composition, which is more difficult to identify as it requires firmlevel analysis and differs depending on the source, will be mentioned.2 There are also external debt levels including and excluding intercompany debt, as this is relevant for determining the vulnerability of corporates to external shocks. Generally speaking, intercompany debt is less susceptible for refinancing risk than other sources of external funding as it has an equity like character.3 Ideally, we would have liked to include in the table the debtservice-to-income ratio, which is an even better indicator for assessing debt sustainability than the debt-to-income ratio, and information on leverage in the balance sheet of corporates, measured by debt-to-equity, as this is an important indicator for corporate vulnerability to shocks as well. But these indicators are not - easily – available3. Where relevant, it will be mentioned and where available, information on the interest-coverage-ratio will be added.

Both level and composition of debt are important to determining debt sustainability. Generally speaking,

Next month – Part 2: Corporate Debt in Emerging Market Economies

F I G U R E 4 E X C H A N G E R AT E V I S - À - V I S U S D PERCENT CHANGE, NEGATIVE VALUES INDICATE DEPRECIATION

RUSSIA

BRAZIL

SOUTH AFRICA

TURKEY

MEXICO

INDONESIA

MALAYSIA

INDIA

-60

-40

MAY-2013-END 2013

-20 2014

2015

0

20

YTD

Source: IHS


ASIA NEWSFLASH August 2016 BUSINESS OPTIMISM INDEX Q3 2016 & MANUFACTURING 2025 BY D&B INDIA M A N U FA C T U R I N G I N D I A 2 0 2 5

D&B evaluated the growth and status of 6 major industrial sectors by 2025; the share of 6 major industrial sectors in India’s economy i.e. Mining, Metals, Machinery & Equipment, Chemical & Pharma, Textile & Leather and Food processing is expected to grow from around 17% in FY14 to approximately 23% by FY25. BUSINESS OPTIMISM INDEX Q3 2016

– Around 71% of the respondents expect an increase in profits during Q3 2016, an increase of 9 percentage points – Around 70% of the respondents expect their order book position to improve in Q3 2016

S TAT ESID E

D&B’s U.S. Economic Health Tracker Reveals Continued Challenges for Small Businesses Balanced by Positive Job Growth

– Around 62% of the respondents anticipate no change in the size of their workforce employed during Q3 2016 as compared to 60% in Q3 2015

– Dun & Bradstreet’s Small Business Health Index remained stagnant on a m/m basis, forsaking even the minute improvements it has showed in the past two months. The value of the overall index stands at 93.5 points – same reading as last month – about 1% below its level of one year ago. – Dun & Bradstreet estimates the U.S. labor market added about 176,000 jobs in June 2016 amidst turmoil in the global financial markets which might have some effect on the U.S labor market via uncertainties. – Overall business risks rose during May as the Overall Business Health Index fell 0.4% from April 2016. This is the second consecutive month of deteriorating sequential overall business health.

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ASIA NEWSFLASH DATA SHOWCASE

TAIWAN

The Business Information You Need That We Have

375,367

TA I P EI

OF ACTIVE BUSINESS UNIVERSE* TOTAL DUNS NUMBERED RECORDS

508,903 ACCURACY

COMPANY NAME ADDRESS TELEPHONE

TAIWAN

≥ 96.49% ≥ 97.02% ≥ 92.52%

* The known D&B universe of organizations that are active includes all registered organizations and entities, non-corporate businesses and commercial operations irrespective of its current trading status.

SERVICES

3.98%

20.28%

FINANCE, INSURANCE & REAL ESTATE

1.23% PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION

0.62% AGRICULTURAL, FORESTRY & FISHING

RETAIL TRADE

14.19%

0.06% MINING

INDUSTRY DATA AVAILABLE IN %

5.45% CONSTRUCTION MANUFACTURING

24.54% WHOLESALES TRADE

30.25%

2.85% TRANSPORTATION, COMMUNICATION, ELECTRIC, GAS & SANITARY SERVICE

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