below. 2. Median Price Per Square Foot. $98. Number of Sales. 3,728. Count of Sales by Price per Square Foot. More than.
ECONSULT SOLUTIONS, INC. PHILADELPHIA HOUSING
INDEX (PHI) - 2013 Q3
TABLE OF CONTENTS Quarterly Index ...................................... Sales by Price per Square Foot ............. Sales Volume by Price Range ............... Statistics by District ................................. Quarterly Index by Subregion ............... Total Sales in Past Year ………............... Background and Notes…..................... Price per Square Foot
Low
High
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ECONSULT SOLUTIONS, INC. PHILADELPHIA HOUSING INDEX - 2013 Q3 QUARTERLY INDEX
Index Number of Sales Median Sale Price Quarterly Change
159.8 3,728 $129,500 -0.5%
Philadelphia and Comparative House Price Indices 2003 – 2013 Q3 (2003 = 100) 210
190
170
150
130
110
90
2003
2004
2005
Philadelphia
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Philadelphia Metro Area
Philadelphia housing markets were unchanged over the summer. Quality-adjusted prices of single-family houses in Philadelphia decreased by an average of 0.5 percent this quarter and are up 2.9 percent from a year ago. This stall is a continuation of relatively flat, albeit uneven, growth over the past few years. Overall, there were 3,728 arms-length sales of single family homes this quarter, which is up 0.3 percent from the previous quarter, and 14 percent from the same quarter a year ago.
Econsult Solutions, Inc. | 1435 Walnut Street, Ste. 300 | Philadelphia, PA 19102 215-717-2777 | econsultsolutions.com
2011
2012
2013
National Average
Index Percent Change, 2008 -2013 Q3 10% 5% 0% -5% -10%
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
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ECONSULT SOLUTIONS, INC. PHILADELPHIA HOUSING INDEX - 2013 Q3 SALES BY PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT
2
Each dot on the map represents one sale. The color indicates the price per square foot, following the classification shown on the chart below.
Count of Sales by Price per Square Foot $25 or Less
$26 to $50
525 437 844
$51 to $100
956
$101 to $150 $150 to $200
Median price per square foot was $98. There were 512 sales in the most expensive category with prices over $200 per square foot, and 525 in the least expensive category of $25 per square foot or less.
More than $200
447 512
Median Price Per Square Foot Number of Sales
Econsult Solutions, Inc. | 1435 Walnut Street, Ste. 300 | Philadelphia, PA 19102 215-717-2777 | econsultsolutions.com
$98
3,728
ECONSULT SOLUTIONS, INC. PHILADELPHIA HOUSING INDEX - 2013 Q3 SALES VOLUME BY PRICE RANGE
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Volume of Sales by Price Range Price Range
2013 Q3
$25,000 or less
409
$25,001 - $50,000
402
$50,001 - $100,000
669
$100,001 - $150,000
656
$150,001 - $200,000
492
$200,001 - $300,000
541
$300,001 - $500,000
383
$500,001 - $750,000
123
$750,001 - $999,999
26
$1,000,000 or More
27
Total
3,728
Volume of home sales was up slightly this quarter (to 3,728 from 3,715 last quarter), but is up 14 percent from the previous summer. The number of home sales with values of more than $1 million was also higher this quarter than the last quarter (27 compared to 23). The median sale price of $129,500 represents a 3.6 percent increase over the previous quarter, and is up 1.4 percent over the same quarter one year ago. Unlike the index value, the median price is not quality or seasonally adjusted. Median Sales Price (thousands) $150 $125 $100 $75 $50
$129.5 2003
2006
2009
2012
9,000
40
8,000
35
7,000
30
6,000
25
5,000
20
4,000
15
3,000 2,000
10
1,000
5
0
2003
2006
Total Sales
2009
2012
Sales $1 Million or More
Econsult Solutions, Inc. | 1435 Walnut Street, Ste. 300 | Philadelphia, PA 19102 215-717-2777 | econsultsolutions.com
0
Sales $1 Million or More
Total Sales
Total Sales Volume and Volume of Sales Greater than $1 Million
ECONSULT SOLUTIONS, INC. PHILADELPHIA HOUSING INDEX - 2013 Q3 STATISTICS BY DISTRICT
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Index
Sales
Median Sale Price
Quarterly Change
Annual Change
1 Upper Far Northeast
128.9
110
$212,000
1.1%
-0.8%
2 Lower Far Northeast
149.4
120
$178,250
1.4%
-2.6%
3 Central Northeast
135.8
199
$150,000
0.9%
-1.1%
4 North Delaware
113.0
283
$107,500
-1.1%
-6.8%
5 Upper Northwest
158.0
232
$179,000
0.8%
3.2%
6 Upper North
162.5
220
$75,000
0.0%
-7.5%
7 Lower Northeast
129.8
211
$79,900
2.2%
-3.9%
8 Lower Northwest
150.8
196
$225,000
0.1%
3.1%
9 North
122.9
204
$25,000
-0.9%
-7.0%
10 River Wards
222.0
310
$113,000
6.1%
6.9%
11 West Park
185.5
83
$124,000
5.8%
4.2%
12 Lower North
220.5
167
$70,000
6.7%
25.1%
13 West/Southwest*
108.1
266
$37,750
0.6%
1.7%
14 University*
233.1
78
$295,000
4.4%
4.1%
15 Center City
156.1
370
$413,750
2.8%
6.0%
16 Lower Southwest
158.2
81
$48,000
1.6%
-2.8%
17 Combined South*
262.3
598
$150,000
4.9%
13.3%
X Citywide
159.8
3,728
$129,500
-0.5%
2.9%
District
*Districts are identical to Philadelphia City Planning Districts except where noted with an asterisk. See Definitions and Notes on page 8 for details.
Econsult Solutions, Inc. | 1435 Walnut Street, Ste. 300 | Philadelphia, PA 19102 215-717-2777 | econsultsolutions.com
ECONSULT SOLUTIONS, INC. PHILADELPHIA HOUSING INDEX - 2013 Q3 QUARTERLY INDEX BY SUBREGION
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Subregion House Price Indices 2000 – 2013 Q3 (2003 = 100) 270 250 230 210
190 170 150 130 110 90
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Far Northeast
Northeast
North
Northwest
Lower North/River
Central/University
West/Southwest
South
Analysis at the District level provides a refined view of housing market trends. Here, these trends are aggregated into Subregions to summarize broader market trends. House prices in the South Subregion continued their positive trend, growing 4.9 percent this quarter and 14. percent for the year. The Lower North/River Subregion posted significant gains, up 6.1 percent this quarter. The North Subregion saw the largest price drops, with a decline of 1.1 percent for the quarter and 6.7 percent for the year. Econsult Solutions, Inc. | 1435 Walnut Street, Ste. 300 | Philadelphia, PA 19102 215-717-2777 | econsultsolutions.com
Color of Subregion on chart corresponds to color of Subregions on map.
ECONSULT SOLUTIONS, INC. PHILADELPHIA HOUSING INDEX - 2013 Q3 DISTRIBUTION OF SALES IN THE PAST YEAR
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District 1 Upper Far Northeast
Annual Sales 467
2 Lower Far Northeast
563
3 Central Northeast
687
4 North Delaware
1,116
5 Upper Northwest
755
6 Upper North
883
7 Lower Northeast
816
8 Lower Northwest
675
9 North 10 River Wards
816 1,085
11 West Park
251
12 Lower North
623
13 West/Southwest
905
14 University
228
15 Center City
1,185
16 Lower Southwest
284
17 Combined South
2,151
X Citywide
13,490
The spatial distribution of sales in the last year (from Q4 2012 to Q3 2013) varies significantly across the city. The map above shows total annual home sales by quarter-mile grid area. The greatest concentration of sales are in the upper part of South Philadelphia (Point Breeze, East Passyunk), the lower part of Center City (Graduate Hospital, Bella Vista), and the western part of the River Wards (East Kensington, Fishtown). Sales volume was also strong in parts of the Northeast Philadelphia (Mayfair, Oxford Circle, Tacony).
Econsult Solutions, Inc. | 1435 Walnut Street, Ste. 300 | Philadelphia, PA 19102 215-717-2777 | econsultsolutions.com
ECONSULT SOLUTIONS, INC. PHILADELPHIA HOUSING INDEX - 2013 Q3 BACKGROUND AND NOTES
Background and Contact Econsult Solutions, Inc. (ESI) provides the Philadelphia Housing Index (PHI) free of charge to the public. Thanks to Azavea and the Office of Property Assessment for providing some of the data used in our analysis.
Sales are arms-length transactions of single-family homes only. The price indexes are estimated by Econsult Solutions, Inc. using a quality controlled measure of average sale appreciation using hedonic regression analysis. Questions and press inquiries should be directed to Econsult Solutions, Inc. President Richard P. Voith at
[email protected]
Notes Cover: Map displays interpolated (inverse-distance weighted) cost surface based on price per square foot of sales. Lower values of price per square foot are deep blue; higher values are red; yellow and green shades are in the middle. The image is provided for illustrative purposes only and does not represent predictions of home values. Page 1: National and Philadelphia Metro indexes are from the Seasonally Adjusted Purchase Only Series from the Federal Housing Finance Agency. Philadelphia Metro refers to the Pennsylvania Division of the Metropolitan Statistical Area, which includes the Philadelphia, Bucks, Chester, Delaware, and Montgomery counties. The Federal and Philadelphia Metro indexes are one quarter behind our Philadelphia Index. Page 4: Econsult Solutions, Inc. Districts are identical to those used by the Philadelphia City Planning Commission (PCPC) except: PCPC’s “Lower South” is included in “South”; University City is carved out from PCPC’s “University/SouthWest”, and the remaining Southwest is combined with West to form “West/Southwest”. Pages 4 and 5: District and Subregion indexes are smoothed to reduce volatility and capture underlying market trends. The smoothing means that overall district and subregion prices tend to reflect overall citywide price changes with a slight lag. Page 5: For ease of presentation, Districts are further aggregated into “Subregions,” as shown on the map.
Econsult Solutions, Inc. | 1435 Walnut Street, Ste. 300 | Philadelphia, PA 19102 215-717-2777 | econsultsolutions.com
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