econsult solutions, inc. philadelphia housing index (phi) - 2013 q3

ECONSULT SOLUTIONS, INC. PHILADELPHIA HOUSING

INDEX (PHI) - 2013 Q3

TABLE OF CONTENTS Quarterly Index ...................................... Sales by Price per Square Foot ............. Sales Volume by Price Range ............... Statistics by District ................................. Quarterly Index by Subregion ............... Total Sales in Past Year ………............... Background and Notes…..................... Price per Square Foot

Low

High

Econsult Solutions, Inc. | 1435 Walnut Street, Ste. 300 | Philadelphia, PA 19102 215-717-2777 | econsultsolutions.com

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ECONSULT SOLUTIONS, INC. PHILADELPHIA HOUSING INDEX - 2013 Q3 QUARTERLY INDEX

Index Number of Sales Median Sale Price Quarterly Change

159.8 3,728 $129,500 -0.5%

Philadelphia and Comparative House Price Indices 2003 – 2013 Q3 (2003 = 100) 210

190

170

150

130

110

90

2003

2004

2005

Philadelphia

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Philadelphia Metro Area

Philadelphia housing markets were unchanged over the summer. Quality-adjusted prices of single-family houses in Philadelphia decreased by an average of 0.5 percent this quarter and are up 2.9 percent from a year ago. This stall is a continuation of relatively flat, albeit uneven, growth over the past few years. Overall, there were 3,728 arms-length sales of single family homes this quarter, which is up 0.3 percent from the previous quarter, and 14 percent from the same quarter a year ago.


2011

2012

2013

National Average

Index Percent Change, 2008 -2013 Q3 10% 5% 0% -5% -10%

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

1

ECONSULT SOLUTIONS, INC. PHILADELPHIA HOUSING INDEX - 2013 Q3 SALES BY PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT

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Each dot on the map represents one sale. The color indicates the price per square foot, following the classification shown on the chart below.

Count of Sales by Price per Square Foot $25 or Less

$26 to $50

525 437 844

$51 to $100

956

$101 to $150 $150 to $200

Median price per square foot was $98. There were 512 sales in the most expensive category with prices over $200 per square foot, and 525 in the least expensive category of $25 per square foot or less.

More than $200

447 512

Median Price Per Square Foot Number of Sales


$98

3,728

ECONSULT SOLUTIONS, INC. PHILADELPHIA HOUSING INDEX - 2013 Q3 SALES VOLUME BY PRICE RANGE

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Volume of Sales by Price Range Price Range

2013 Q3

$25,000 or less

409

$25,001 - $50,000

402

$50,001 - $100,000

669

$100,001 - $150,000

656

$150,001 - $200,000

492

$200,001 - $300,000

541

$300,001 - $500,000

383

$500,001 - $750,000

123

$750,001 - $999,999

26

$1,000,000 or More

27

Total

3,728

Volume of home sales was up slightly this quarter (to 3,728 from 3,715 last quarter), but is up 14 percent from the previous summer. The number of home sales with values of more than $1 million was also higher this quarter than the last quarter (27 compared to 23). The median sale price of $129,500 represents a 3.6 percent increase over the previous quarter, and is up 1.4 percent over the same quarter one year ago. Unlike the index value, the median price is not quality or seasonally adjusted. Median Sales Price (thousands) $150 $125 $100 $75 $50

$129.5 2003

2006

2009

2012

9,000

40

8,000

35

7,000

30

6,000

25

5,000

20

4,000

15

3,000 2,000

10

1,000

5

0

2003

2006

Total Sales

2009

2012

Sales $1 Million or More


0

Sales $1 Million or More

Total Sales

Total Sales Volume and Volume of Sales Greater than $1 Million

ECONSULT SOLUTIONS, INC. PHILADELPHIA HOUSING INDEX - 2013 Q3 STATISTICS BY DISTRICT

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Index

Sales

Median Sale Price

Quarterly Change

Annual Change

1 Upper Far Northeast

128.9

110

$212,000

1.1%

-0.8%

2 Lower Far Northeast

149.4

120

$178,250

1.4%

-2.6%

3 Central Northeast

135.8

199

$150,000

0.9%

-1.1%

4 North Delaware

113.0

283

$107,500

-1.1%

-6.8%

5 Upper Northwest

158.0

232

$179,000

0.8%

3.2%

6 Upper North

162.5

220

$75,000

0.0%

-7.5%

7 Lower Northeast

129.8

211

$79,900

2.2%

-3.9%

8 Lower Northwest

150.8

196

$225,000

0.1%

3.1%

9 North

122.9

204

$25,000

-0.9%

-7.0%

10 River Wards

222.0

310

$113,000

6.1%

6.9%

11 West Park

185.5

83

$124,000

5.8%

4.2%

12 Lower North

220.5

167

$70,000

6.7%

25.1%

13 West/Southwest*

108.1

266

$37,750

0.6%

1.7%

14 University*

233.1

78

$295,000

4.4%

4.1%

15 Center City

156.1

370

$413,750

2.8%

6.0%

16 Lower Southwest

158.2

81

$48,000

1.6%

-2.8%

17 Combined South*

262.3

598

$150,000

4.9%

13.3%

X Citywide

159.8

3,728

$129,500

-0.5%

2.9%

District

*Districts are identical to Philadelphia City Planning Districts except where noted with an asterisk. See Definitions and Notes on page 8 for details.


ECONSULT SOLUTIONS, INC. PHILADELPHIA HOUSING INDEX - 2013 Q3 QUARTERLY INDEX BY SUBREGION

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Subregion House Price Indices 2000 – 2013 Q3 (2003 = 100) 270 250 230 210

190 170 150 130 110 90

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Far Northeast

Northeast

North

Northwest

Lower North/River

Central/University

West/Southwest

South

Analysis at the District level provides a refined view of housing market trends. Here, these trends are aggregated into Subregions to summarize broader market trends. House prices in the South Subregion continued their positive trend, growing 4.9 percent this quarter and 14. percent for the year. The Lower North/River Subregion posted significant gains, up 6.1 percent this quarter. The North Subregion saw the largest price drops, with a decline of 1.1 percent for the quarter and 6.7 percent for the year. Econsult Solutions, Inc. | 1435 Walnut Street, Ste. 300 | Philadelphia, PA 19102 215-717-2777 | econsultsolutions.com

Color of Subregion on chart corresponds to color of Subregions on map.

ECONSULT SOLUTIONS, INC. PHILADELPHIA HOUSING INDEX - 2013 Q3 DISTRIBUTION OF SALES IN THE PAST YEAR

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District 1 Upper Far Northeast

Annual Sales 467

2 Lower Far Northeast

563

3 Central Northeast

687

4 North Delaware

1,116

5 Upper Northwest

755

6 Upper North

883

7 Lower Northeast

816

8 Lower Northwest

675

9 North 10 River Wards

816 1,085

11 West Park

251

12 Lower North

623

13 West/Southwest

905

14 University

228

15 Center City

1,185

16 Lower Southwest

284

17 Combined South

2,151

X Citywide

13,490

The spatial distribution of sales in the last year (from Q4 2012 to Q3 2013) varies significantly across the city. The map above shows total annual home sales by quarter-mile grid area. The greatest concentration of sales are in the upper part of South Philadelphia (Point Breeze, East Passyunk), the lower part of Center City (Graduate Hospital, Bella Vista), and the western part of the River Wards (East Kensington, Fishtown). Sales volume was also strong in parts of the Northeast Philadelphia (Mayfair, Oxford Circle, Tacony).


ECONSULT SOLUTIONS, INC. PHILADELPHIA HOUSING INDEX - 2013 Q3 BACKGROUND AND NOTES

Background and Contact Econsult Solutions, Inc. (ESI) provides the Philadelphia Housing Index (PHI) free of charge to the public. Thanks to Azavea and the Office of Property Assessment for providing some of the data used in our analysis.

Sales are arms-length transactions of single-family homes only. The price indexes are estimated by Econsult Solutions, Inc. using a quality controlled measure of average sale appreciation using hedonic regression analysis. Questions and press inquiries should be directed to Econsult Solutions, Inc. President Richard P. Voith at [email protected]

Notes Cover: Map displays interpolated (inverse-distance weighted) cost surface based on price per square foot of sales. Lower values of price per square foot are deep blue; higher values are red; yellow and green shades are in the middle. The image is provided for illustrative purposes only and does not represent predictions of home values. Page 1: National and Philadelphia Metro indexes are from the Seasonally Adjusted Purchase Only Series from the Federal Housing Finance Agency. Philadelphia Metro refers to the Pennsylvania Division of the Metropolitan Statistical Area, which includes the Philadelphia, Bucks, Chester, Delaware, and Montgomery counties. The Federal and Philadelphia Metro indexes are one quarter behind our Philadelphia Index. Page 4: Econsult Solutions, Inc. Districts are identical to those used by the Philadelphia City Planning Commission (PCPC) except: PCPC’s “Lower South” is included in “South”; University City is carved out from PCPC’s “University/SouthWest”, and the remaining Southwest is combined with West to form “West/Southwest”. Pages 4 and 5: District and Subregion indexes are smoothed to reduce volatility and capture underlying market trends. The smoothing means that overall district and subregion prices tend to reflect overall citywide price changes with a slight lag. Page 5: For ease of presentation, Districts are further aggregated into “Subregions,” as shown on the map.


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